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      Your Thursday Briefing: Iran’s Protests Intensify

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      Plus Myanmar gets closer to Russia and a dire climate report.Iranian mourners walked toward the cemetery where Mahsa Amini is buried.Eurovision Social Network/Via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images Iranians mourn Mahsa AminiTens of thousands of demonstrators in Iran gathered yesterday to mark the 40th day of the traditional Islamic mourning period for Mahsa Amini, whose death in police custody set off protests across the country.The mourning was marred by violence as security forces attacked and shot at demonstrators across the country. By evening, demonstrations had spread across the country to many cities and university campuses, with large crowds in the streets clapping and defiantly chanting the mantras of the protests: “Women, Life, Freedom” and “We will fight and take Iran back,” according to videos on social media.Security forces attacked protesters with tear gas, beat them with batons and in some places, like Tehran, Qazvin and Saghez, opened fire on them, videos showed. Some crowds in the capital fought back, chasing security forces and setting fire to their motorcycles.In Tehran, women tossed their head scarves onto bonfires in the street, shouting “Freedom! Freedom!” videos showed. In many places, the protesters condemned the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and chanted for his death and removal.Analysis: The protests that unfolded in recent weeks were more scattered and smaller in recent days, but the revolt may inject new energy into the demonstrations.Culture: The Times spoke with Zar Amir Ebrahimi, who fled Iran in 2008, and won the best actress award at Cannes this year. She stars in “Holy Spider,” a timely Iranian story of female resistance in the face of male violence. “I saw these images of three actresses throwing away their hijabs, saying we don’t want to lie anymore, we don’t want to hide ourselves,” Ebrahimi said, “and I figure if they arrived at this point, the whole of society is kind of there.”Myanmar’s junta sees itself as part of a new world order led by strongmen ideologically opposed to democracy.Nanna Heitmann for The New York TimesMyanmar cozies up to RussiaMyanmar’s junta, ostracized by the West and by its neighbors, is deepening its ties with Russia.Myanmar is the only Southeast Asian country to endorse Russia’s invasion, and the Kremlin has referred to Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, the head of the junta, as the “prime minister,” a post he gave himself that no other major country recognizes.The relationship has mutual benefits. Myanmar gets Russian oil in the midst of a fuel shortage exacerbated by the junta’s mismanagement, as well as ammunition and a powerful ally at the U.N.More on the Protests in IranA Women-Led Uprising: Casting off their legally required head scarves, Iranian women have been at the forefront of the demonstrations, supplying the defining images of defiance.Prison Fire: The causes of a fire in the notorious Evin Prison, in Tehran, remain unclear. But witnesses and families of prisoners say that the authorities there had been bracing for potential unrest.The New Faces of the Protests: Two 16-year-old girls who were killed by the Iranian security services in a crackdown on protesters have become a symbol of the uprising.Economic Despair: While Iranians have a range of grievances to choose from, the sorry state of Iran’s economy has been one of the main forces driving the protests. Strikes by oil-sector workers joining the protests could damage it further.Russia gets revenue as Western sanctions squeeze its economy. Moscow could even eclipse Beijing as Myanmar’s top supplier of weapons, which have been frequently deployed by the military against civilians since it took control of the country in a military coup in 2021.Ukraine war updates:A hydroelectric dam could be a linchpin in the looming battle for Kherson. If Ukraine retook the dam, Russian soldiers would have nowhere to retreat, but Russia could breach the dam to slow Ukraine’s advance.Ukraine’s government urged displaced people not to return this winter, acknowledging that the country faces hardships in the cold months ahead.A new propaganda push by the Kremlin frames the war as a counterterrorism operation.Earth is heading toward more intense flooding, wildfires, drought, heat waves and species extinction.Feisal Omar/ReutersClimate pledges are falling shortOnly 26 of 193 nations that agreed to climate action plans have followed through, increasing the likelihood of an environmental catastrophe, according to a U.N. report.Without drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the document said, the planet is on track to warm by an average of 2.1 to 2.9 degrees Celsius, compared with preindustrial levels, by 2100.That’s far higher than the goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) set by the landmark Paris Agreement in 2015, and it crosses the threshold beyond which scientists say the likelihood of catastrophic climate impacts significantly increases.The U.N. report comes less than two weeks before nations are set to gather for climate talks in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt, to discuss unfulfilled promises and the fight to stave off a catastrophe.Details: The world’s top two polluters, China and the U.S., have taken some action but did not pledge more interventions this year; climate negotiations between the two have been frozen for months. Toll: Emperor penguins have been listed as a threatened species by the U.S. government. Experts predict that 99 percent of the birds will disappear by 2100 without a significant reduction in carbon pollution.THE LATEST NEWSAsia PacificThe fossil was taken in broad daylight. Bryan Le Dantec /Getty ImagesTwo men with a rock saw and a chisel stole a cherished 23-million-year-old whale fossil from a remote riverbank in New Zealand. Shanghai began using an inhalable form of the Covid-19 vaccine, China Daily reports.Anne Jakrajutatip, a transgender Thai billionaire and celebrity, purchased the Miss Universe Organization for $20 million, Reuters reports.Medibank, Australia’s largest health insurer, said a hack had compromised the data of all its customers, Reuters reports.Around the WorldMarkets were unruffled by Rishi Sunak’s announcement, but the Labour Party is on the offensive against him.Dan Kitwood/Getty ImagesRishi Sunak, Britain’s new prime minister, delayed the announcement of a major economic plan, saying that he needed time to make the “right decisions.”A measure tracked by Wall Street signaled that the U.S. could be heading toward an economic slump.This summer, Mexico’s government said it had finally solved the mystery behind a mass abduction in 2014. Since then, the case has fallen apart.Other Big StoriesPresident Biden thought he had secured a secret pledge from Saudi Arabia to increase oil production. He was wrong. Nablus, a city in the West Bank, has been under a semi-blockade for weeks by the Israeli Army. Residents are furious. A small trial suggested that some breast cancer patients could skip surgery and be treated with chemotherapy alone.A Morning ReadMadhur Jaffrey’s 1985 children’s book, “Seasons of Splendour: Tales, Myths and Legends of India,” is being reissued next month.Adrianna Newell for The New York TimesMadhur Jaffrey introduced Indian food to the West. Now, at 89, she continues to publish recipes and articles and give interviews. Her first cookbook, “An Invitation to Indian Cooking,” will be reissued next year. “She inspired an entire generation of Indians,” said Chintan Pandya, 42, the chef at New York City’s Dhamaka who was named the best chef in New York State this year at the James Beard awards. “She planted the seed.”TAIPEI DISPATCHTaiwan’s autocratic relicsSouth of Taipei, there’s a museum dedicated to Taiwan’s not-so-distant authoritarian past. It’s become a surprising tourist hot spot.Once the site of a secretive military detention center, the Jing-Mei White Terror Memorial Park has seen an increase in visitors since Nancy Pelosi, the U.S. House speaker, met there in August with pro-democracy activists who have criticized China.“Now, Taiwan is already a free and democratic country,” said Chen Chung-tong, 85, a physician who was held there for a decade until his release in 1979. He said that Pelosi’s visit to the site was a reminder that Chiang Kai-shek’s Chinese Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang, “used to rule Taiwan this way, like the Communist Party rules China now.”Political dissidents were prosecuted at the detention center during the four decades until 1992 known in Taiwan as the White Terror, which began when the Kuomintang fled to the island to escape the Communist revolution in China. During that period, the Kuomintang targeted people seen as threats to its rule over the island.For many, the site has a new resonance as China increases its military intimidation in a bid to pressure Taiwan into unification. The site also carries echoes of China’s autocratic present under Xi Jinping — and a potent warning of one possible future. Some fear the past may be a prologue.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookRyan Liebe for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Barrett Washburne.Delicata squash has an edible skin, so you can roast it without having to peel it.What to ReadBooks to take you through Istanbul.Ask WellDo statins, which lower blood cholesterol, increase the risk of diabetes?Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: Taxi (Three letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you next time. — AmeliaP.S. Lindsay Zoladz, a pop music critic, is joining The Times. Her brand-new newsletter will recommend new songs (and older ones, too).The latest episode of “The Daily” is on the subpoena issued to Donald Trump.You can reach Amelia and the team at briefing@nytimes.com. More

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      Your Wednesday Briefing: Tensions Rise in the West Bank

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      Plus Myanmar’s junta kills dozens and Brittney Griner faces nine years in a Russian penal colony.Mourners attended the funeral of Palestinians killed in an overnight Israeli raid in Nablus.Jaafar Ashtiyeh/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesIsrael targets a Palestinian militiaIsraeli forces carried out a major raid against a new Palestinian militia in Nablus, a city in the occupied West Bank. Palestinian officials and militia members said the raid yesterday killed a leader of the group and four other men.Israel has blamed the militia, known as the Lions’ Den, for a rise in shootings that it says are aimed at its troops and Jewish settlements; one shooting killed a soldier this month. The militia, which emerged this year and does not answer to any of the established Palestinian factions, is steadily gaining support among young people.Many Palestinians have championed the group’s fighters as popular heroes. These young Palestinians are as frustrated with the Palestinian Authority, which exercises limited authority over parts of the West Bank, as they are with Israel.The predawn raid came ahead of Israel’s general election, its fifth since 2019, set for next Tuesday. It could add to right-wing momentum and strengthen Benjamin Netanyahu’s bid to retake power.Context: The Israeli army has kept Nablus under a tight siege for about two weeks. Palestinians have decried the move as a collective punishment.Background: This year has already been the deadliest in the West Bank since 2015 for Palestinians in the conflict with Israel, much of which has been focused on Nablus and Jenin. There has been a notable rise in violence against Palestinians by extremist Jewish settlers.One bomb killed Aurali Lahpai, a popular singer, and other performers mid-song.Associated PressAirstrike kills dozens in MyanmarAt least 80 people died in Myanmar after the military regime mounted its deadliest aerial attack since it seized power last year.The Sunday airstrike in northern Myanmar targeted the territory of ethnic Kachin rebels. People had gathered for an outdoor concert to celebrate the 62nd anniversary of the founding of the Kachin Independence Organization, one of the largest and most active ethnic groups in the country, which has been fighting the military for years.Since the coup, the organization has joined with pro-democracy forces and has helped train soldiers from the People’s Defense Force, an armed resistance group. The organization pledged to step up its military activities against the junta in retaliation.Military: The junta said that the site of the bombing was a Kachin army base, not a concert venue, and said widespread reports of civilian deaths, including the deaths of the performers, were “rumors based on fake news.”Context: The Kachin Independence Organization has long sought autonomy for Kachin State, which borders China and India and is well known for its lucrative jade trade.Brittney Griner has already been jailed for about eight months.Kirill Kudryavtsev/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesGriner’s prison term upheldA Russian court upheld the nine-year prison sentence for Brittney Griner, the U.S. basketball star. A prisoner swap with the U.S. may be her best hope to avoid a penal colony.There are two higher courts above the appellate division, culminating in the Supreme Court, but Griner’s lawyers said they had not decided whether to take the case any further. Higher courts in Russia are not known for overturning verdicts, especially in a case involving foreign policy and the interests of the Kremlin.The U.S. has proposed exchanging Griner and Paul Whelan, a former U.S. Marine held since December 2018, for Viktor Bout, a Russian arms dealer who is serving a 25-year federal prison sentence, according to a person familiar with the talks. But negotiations have dragged on for months.Background: Griner was arrested days before Russia invaded Ukraine after she arrived in Russia with a small amount of hashish oil. Threats: Russia and Ukraine accused each other of planning attacks to spread radioactive material, raising fears in the West that Moscow’s claims could be a pretext for an escalation. President Biden sharply warned Moscow against using a tactical nuclear weapon.THE LATEST NEWSAustralia’s BudgetJim Chalmers, Australia’s treasurer, delivered the 2022-23 federal budget yesterday.Lukas Coch/EPA, via ShutterstockAustralia’s government released its first budget yesterday. It is the first from the Labor Party in almost a decade, The Guardian reports.Australia’s plan emphasizes spending on families, as well as on older adults, defense and other countries in the Pacific, The Associated Press reports.Reuters reports that the “low-drama” budget stressed stability, pragmatism and tight controls.Australia is anticipating an economic slowdown amid rising global inflation, The Sydney Morning Herald reports.British PoliticsKing Charles III welcomed Rishi Sunak to Buckingham Palace yesterday.Pool photo by Aaron ChownRishi Sunak is now Britain’s prime minister. He opted for stability and continuity in his cabinet. Jeremy Hunt, who quickly reversed Liz Truss’s economic proposals, will stay on as the top finance minister. Sunak supported Brexit and pledged to do “whatever it takes” to send asylum seekers to Rwanda. But he has been tight-lipped about his policy agenda.China said it supported advancing ties with Britain under Sunak, despite simmering tensions.Sunak’s ascent has inspired some members of the Indian diaspora. But his immense personal wealth makes him less relatable.Other Big Stories“I want to cry, I want to scream,” said a 31-year-old Venezuelan migrant, who said he had traversed 10 countries to get to the U.S. Alejandro Cegarra for The New York TimesTens of thousands of Venezuelans are stranded south of the U.S. border after an abrupt shift in the Biden administration’s immigration policy.WhatsApp went down in India, South Korea and other countries yesterday. The company did not provide a cause.Here are photos from the partial solar eclipse yesterday.A Morning ReadBefore the pandemic, Kathryn Wiltz’s employer repeatedly denied her requests to work from home because of her disability. Now, her new job allows her to do so permanently.Sarah Rice for The New York TimesThe pandemic prompted more employers to consider remote work arrangements. As a result, the share of adults with disabilities who are working has soared.A man with autism spectrum disorder, which has made it difficult for him to find steady work, recently landed a full-time job — with a 30 percent raise. “If I have my bad days, I just pick up the laptop and work from home,” he said.POP CULTUREAdidas drops YeAdidas said it was immediately ending its partnership with Kanye West, now known as Ye, who made a series of antisemitic remarks and embraced a slogan associated with white supremacists this month.In so doing, the German sneaker giant ended what may have been the most significant corporate fashion partnership of Ye’s career. It’s not the first to go: After days of notable silence, Balenciaga, the fashion house that had Ye walk down its runway, cut him loose. CAA, the talent agency that represents Ye, also dropped him as a client.Like many of Ye’s other fashion connections, Adidas seemed to be dragging its feet, perhaps hoping for a public apology. Now, Ye’s economic future and his status as a pop culture icon may be in peril.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookKate Sears for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Barrett Washburne.Roast butternut squash in miso and butter for a savory vegetarian pasta dinner.Letter of RecommendationThere’s joy in jet lag.FashionFind your personal style.Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: Polluted air (four letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you next time. — AmeliaP.S. Park Chung-hee, South Korea’s president who seized power in a coup, was assassinated 43 years ago today. His friend Kim Jae-kyu, then the head of the Korean Central Intelligence Agency, killed him and was sentenced to death.The latest episode of “The Daily” is on Europe’s energy crisis.You can reach Amelia and the team at briefing@nytimes.com. More

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      Myanmar’s Daw Aung San Suu Kyi Gets More Prison Time

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      Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, the politician and Nobel laureate, was found guilty of election fraud on Friday, a sign that the junta has no intention of easing its pressure on her.Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, Myanmar’s ousted civilian leader who was detained in a coup last year, was sentenced to three more years in prison, with hard labor, on Friday when a court found her guilty of election fraud in a case that the army brought against her after her political party won in a landslide in 2020.The latest sentence brings her total prison term to 20 years, an indication that the junta is not easing its pressure on Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi despite international condemnation. The guilty verdict comes as the military seeks to erase her influence in the country. Last month, Myanmar’s military-backed Supreme Court announced that it would auction off her residence, where she spent nearly 15 years under house arrest under a previous regime.The election fraud case stems from a November 2021 charge brought by the junta-controlled Election Commission: Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi and other senior officials were accused of manipulating voter lists to clinch the 2020 election. Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi’s political party, the National League for Democracy, crushed the military-backed party in that vote, which independent international observers declared free and fair.The election commission’s previous members also pushed back against the claim of voter fraud, saying there was no evidence. A day after announcing the coup in February 2021, the army dismissed all the members of the commission and installed their own people. It later announced that the election results had been canceled.In July, Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi testified for the first time on the election fraud charge, saying she was not guilty. On Friday, a judge in Naypyidaw, the capital, also sentenced U Win Myint, the country’s ousted president, to three years, the maximum term, on the same charge.The junta, which has long rejected criticisms that the charges against Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi were politically motivated, has accused her of breaking the law. In the election fraud case, it said it had found nearly 10.5 million instances of irregularities and had identified entries where a person’s national identification number had been repeated — either under the same name or a different one. It also said it found ballots with no national identification number listed at all.Supporters of the National League for Democracy, Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi’s party, celebrating her victory in Yangon in November 2020. A court found her guilty of election fraud after her political party won in a landslide in 2020.Sai Aung Main/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe U.S.-based Carter Center, which had more than 40 observers visiting polling stations on Election Day, said voting had taken place “without major irregularities being reported by mission observers.”Friday’s sentencing was the fifth verdict meted out against Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi, 77, who has already stood trial on a series of other charges that include inciting public unrest and breaching Covid-19 protocols. It was the first time she had been sentenced to hard labor, which forces convicts to carry heavy rocks in quarries, a practice international rights groups have denounced. She is appealing the sentence, according to a source familiar with the legal proceedings.She had already been sentenced to a total of 17 years in prison, starting in December 2021. She still faces eight more charges relating to corruption and violating the official secrets act. If found guilty on all remaining charges, she could face a maximum imprisonment of 119 years.Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi, a Nobel laureate, has denied all of the charges against her, while the United Nations and many other international organizations have demanded her freedom.No one has heard from Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi since she was detained, except for her lawyers, who are banned from speaking to the media. She is being held in solitary confinement, whereas previous military regimes allowed her to remain under house arrest.Despite the regime’s effort to make her disappear, Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi is still revered by many in Myanmar. A paper fan that belonged to her sold in an online auction for more than $340,000 last month to help a victim who had been burned by the military in an arson attack. Her son, Kim Aris, auctioned off a piece of art that sold for more than $1 million, money that will go toward helping victims of the military’s brutality.Myanmar has been wracked by widespread protests since the coup. Thousands of armed resistance fighters are battling the army, carrying out bombings and assassinations that have handicapped the military in some parts of the country. The civil disobedience movement, started by striking doctors, teachers and railway workers, is still going strong.Protestors in Yangon in March 2021. Myanmar has been wracked by widespread protests since the coup.The New York TimesOn Friday, the junta sentenced Vicky Bowman, a former British ambassador, and her Burmese husband, Ko Htein Lin, to one year in prison for breaching immigration laws, according to a prison official.The Tatmadaw, as Myanmar’s army is known, has long resented Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi, whose widespread popularity threatens military rule. Before her most recent arrest, she had kept a distance from Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, the head of the army and the general behind the coup.The two leaders were part of a delicate power-sharing arrangement in which Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi headed the civilian side of government and General Min Aung Hlaing maintained absolute control over the military, the police and the border guards. The two rarely spoke, choosing instead to send messages through an intermediary.Many political experts point to the time in 2016 when Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi’s political party, the N.L.D., introduced a bill in Parliament to create a new post for her as state counselor as a moment when ties fractured between the army and Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi. As state counselor, Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi declared herself above the president and named herself foreign minister, a move that the military saw as a power grab.In November 2020, the N.L.D. won by an even greater margin compared with its previous election showing. Three months later, and hours before the new Parliament was scheduled to be sworn in, soldiers and the police arrested Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi and other party leaders.General Min Aung Hlaing announced the coup later that day, declaring on public television that there had been “terrible fraud” during the vote. More

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      Your Tuesday Briefing: Kenya’s Next President?

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      Plus reports of Russian torture of Ukrainian prisoners and a longer sentence for Aung San Suu Kyi.Good morning. We’re covering uncertain election results in Kenya and a possible prisoner swap between Russia and the U.S.Supporters of William Ruto celebrated yesterday, despite uncertainty.Simon Maina/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesA new Kenyan president?Kenya’s vice president, William Ruto, won the country’s presidential election, the head of the electoral commission said yesterday. The result came days after a cliffhanger vote.Ruto gained 50.5 percent of the vote, narrowly defeating Raila Odinga, a former prime minister, said a top official. That percentage is enough to avert a runoff vote, but a majority of election commissioners refused to verify the results. Here are live updates.An official, speaking on behalf of four of the seven electors, said the panel could not take ownership of the results because of the “opaque nature” of the election’s handling. Kenyan law allows for an election result to be challenged within one week — a prospect that many observers viewed as a near certainty.Profile: Ruto, who grew up poor and became a wealthy businessman, appealed to “hustlers” — underemployed youth striving to better themselves.Analysis: Kenya is East Africa’s biggest economy and is pivotal to trade and regional stability. The vote is being closely scrutinized as a key test for democracy in the country, which has a history of troubled elections. Rising prices, corruption and drought were top issues for voters.“He is very thin in the photo,” Darya Shepets, 19, said of her detained brother, pictured.Mauricio Lima for The New York TimesUkrainians share detention storiesHundreds of Ukrainian civilians, mainly men, have gone missing in the five months of the war in Ukraine.They have been detained by Russian troops or their proxies and held with little food in basements, police stations and filtration camps in Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine. Many said they had suffered beatings and sometimes electrical shocks, though Russia has denied torturing or killing Ukrainian civilians. The U.N. says hundreds have disappeared into Russian jails.One 37-year-old auto mechanic, Vasiliy, was seized by Russian soldiers when he was walking in his home village with his wife and a neighbor. That was the beginning of six weeks of “hell,” he said.Shunted from one place of detention to another, he was beaten and repeatedly subjected to electrical shocks under interrogation, with little understanding of where he was or why he was being held. “It was shaming, maddening, but I came out alive,” he said. “It could have been worse. Some people were shot.”Prisoners: Brittney Griner, the U.S. basketball star, appealed her conviction. A senior Russian diplomat spoke of a possible prisoner swap.Fighting: Russia has been firing shells from near a nuclear plant in an effort to thwart a Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson. The move has added to fears of a nuclear accident and has blunted Ukraine’s progress. Here are live updates.Economy: Ukrainian factories are moving west, away from Russian bombs, causing a land rush.Aung San Suu Kyi was forced from power and placed under house arrest in February 2021, after the military took control. Aung Shine Oo/Associated PressAung San Suu Kyi faces 17 yearsA military-appointed court in Myanmar convicted Aung San Suu Kyi on new corruption charges yesterday.The verdict adds six years to the ousted civilian leader’s imprisonment — she is already serving 11 years on half a dozen counts — for a total of 17 years. Still ahead are trials on nine more charges with a potential maximum sentence of 122 years. At 77, the Nobel Peace laureate and onetime democracy icon has spent 17 of the past 33 years in detention, mainly under house arrest.Yesterday’s charges centered on land and construction deals related to an organization she ran until her arrest. Defenders say they are trumped up to silence her. In recent weeks, a Japanese journalist and two well-known models have also been detained.Conditions: Aung San Suu Kyi is kept by herself in a cell measuring about 200 square feet (about 18 square meters). Daytime temperatures can surpass 100 degrees Fahrenheit (about 38 Celsius), but there is no air conditioning.Context: An estimated 12,000 people are in detention for opposing military rule. Many have been tortured or sentenced in brief trials without lawyers. Last month, the junta hanged four pro-democracy activists. It has promised more executions.THE LATEST NEWSAsiaChina recently deployed its largest-ever military exercises to intimidate Taiwan and its supporters.Aly Song/ReutersBeijing announced new drills around Taiwan yesterday after U.S. lawmakers visited. It is also laying out a forceful vision of unification.Oil prices fell to their lowest level in months yesterday, after signs emerged that China’s economy was faltering.As coronavirus fears and restrictions receded, Japan’s economy began to grow again.Bangladesh raised fuel prices more than 50 percent in a week, the BBC reports. Thousands protested.Shoppers tried to escape an Ikea store in Shanghai on Saturday as authorities tried to quarantine them, the BBC reports.The PacificAnthony Albanese, Australia’s prime minister, said he would investigate reports that his predecessor, Scott Morrison, secretly held three ministerial roles, the BBC reports.The government of the Solomon Islands is seeking to delay its national elections from May 2023 to the end of December that year, The Guardian reports.Australia found a red panda that had escaped from the Adelaide Zoo, The A.P. reports.World NewsOf 41 people who died in a fire at a Coptic Orthodox church in Cairo, 18 were children. Rudy Giuliani, Donald Trump’s former adviser, has been told that he is a target of the criminal investigation in Georgia into election interference.Iran blamed Salman Rushdie for the attack on his life, but denied any involvement. In 1989, Iran’s leader ordered Muslims to kill the author.U.K. regulators approved a Moderna Covid-19 booster, making Britain the first country to authorize a shot that targets both the original virus and the Omicron variant.The last French military units pulled out of Mali yesterday after a major fallout with authorities.A Morning ReadIllustration by The New York TimesWorker productivity tools, once common in lower-paying jobs, are spreading to more white-collar roles.Companies say the monitoring tools can yield efficiency and accountability. But in interviews with The Times, workers describe being tracked as “demoralizing,” “humiliating” and “toxic.”ARTS AND IDEASA look back at partitionIndia became independent from Britain 75 years ago yesterday. But trouble was already afoot. Britain had haphazardly left the subcontinent after nearly three centuries of colonial rule and had divided the land into Hindu-majority India and Muslim-majority Pakistan.The bloody partition caused one of the biggest migrations in history, as once-mixed communities rushed in opposite directions to new homelands. As many as 20 million people fled communal violence. Up to two million people were killed.Now, 75 years later, nationalist fervor and mutual suspicion have hardened into rigid divisions. Despite a vast shared heritage, India and Pakistan remain estranged, their guns fixed on each other and diplomatic ties all but nonexistent.Visual history: Here are historical photos of the schism.Connection: A YouTube channel based in Pakistan has reunited relatives separated by the partition.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookDavid Malosh for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Rebecca Jurkevich.Try this broth-first, vegetarian take on a traditional cassoulet.What to WatchHere are five action movies to stream.World Through a LensStephen Hiltner, a Times journalist, lived in Budapest as a child. He just spent three months relearning Hungary’s defiant capital.Now Time to PlayPlay today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: “Word with four vowels in line, appropriately” (five letters).Here are today’s Wordle and today’s Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you next time. — AmeliaP.S. Have you had a frustrating airline experience? “The Daily” wants to know.The latest episode of “The Daily” is about a U.S. tax loophole.You can reach Amelia and the team at briefing@nytimes.com. More

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      The Guardian view on the death penalty: a long way to go | Editorial

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      The Guardian view on the death penalty: a long way to goEditorialThough capital punishment is in global decline, there are horrifying exceptions to the general trend Next month, Oklahoma will embark on a grim schedule: an execution nearly every month until the end of 2024. In September, it is due to execute Richard Glossip, whom many believe to be the victim of a terrible miscarriage of justice. A five-year moratorium has come to an end with the failure of a lawsuit arguing that the use of lethal injections was unconstitutional.Oklahoma is not the only place that is enthusiastically resuming state-sanctioned killing after a pause. Myanmar’s rulers announced on Monday that they had executed four prisoners, including Phyo Zeya Thaw, a rapper and former MP, drawing international condemnation. This was the first time the death penalty had been used there for more than 30 years, said the UN. And on Tuesday it emerged that Tomohiro Kato has been executed in Japan for stabbing seven people to death in 2008.Recorded executions fell sharply in 2020 across the world due to the pandemic, but are now rebounding. Amnesty International says that it saw a 20% increase in 2021, including a sharp rise in Iran to 314 deaths. This year, Saudi Arabia executed 81 men on a single day in March, two of them for participation in violent anti-government protests. Singapore executed four people for drug offences after a two-year pause – including, despite an international outcry, Nagaenthran K Dharmalingam, a young man with an IQ of 69 who said that he was coerced into carrying a small amount of heroin. His case has helped to stir debate about capital punishment. In Myanmar, more than 100 other people have been handed death sentences since last year’s seizure of power by the army. The broad trend is towards the decline of capital punishment. Almost 160 years after Venezuela became the first country to abolish it, well over a hundred more have followed suit (including Papua New Guinea this January), and about 30 more have effectively abolished it, for example through formal moratoria. Despite the increase in 2021, the total number of deaths – 579 – was the second lowest that Amnesty International has recorded since 2010.But a huge black hole remains: the organisation believes that China executes thousands of prisoners a year, but the figure is a state secret, as in Vietnam and North Korea. And the overall fall in the documented use of the death penalty is accompanied by extreme and shocking cases in places that cling to it. The US is also a glaring example of the way that progress can be turned back: 50 years ago this summer, the supreme court struck down the death penalty. Four years later it restored it. More recently, the last administration dramatically resumed federal executions; more were carried out under Donald Trump than any other president in the past century. Though the current attorney general, Merrick Garland, imposed a moratorium, that could be undone by the next administration.There are many reasons to be disturbed by capital punishment. These include agonising deaths witnessed in the US, wrongful convictions, the blatant discrimination of criminal justice systems that results in the disproportionate killing of ethnic minority offenders, and the use of the death penalty for non-violent crimes and political offences. In Myanmar, relatives of the executed men were reportedly denied access to their bodies. But underlying all of this is the broader understanding that continues to spread through the world: that states have no right to take the lives of citizens.Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a letter of up to 300 words to be considered for publication, email it to us at guardian.letters@theguardian.comTopicsCapital punishmentOpinionLaw (US)US politicsMyanmarSouth and central AsiaSingaporeAsia PacificeditorialsReuse this content More

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      ASEAN’s Myanmar Strategy, Slow But Steady

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      On December 6, the world saw Myanmar’s leaders ousted by a military takeover earlier this year receive their first verdict in a series of trials. National League for Democracy (NLD) leader Aung San Suu Kyi and President Win Myint were both initially sentenced to four years in prison for inciting dissent and breaking COVID-19 rules. While her sentence was subsequently halved after a partial pardon by General Min Aung Hlaing, Suu Kyi faces a total of 11 charges that might see her spend the rest of her life in prison.

      How Deep Are the Roots of Democracy in Southeast Asia?

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      When the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) declared Min Aung Hlaing persona non grata at the leaders’ summit back in October, it resulted in the quick release of over 5,600 political prisoners. However, it also precipitated resistance to ASEAN’s plan for a non-violent ceasefire. This was characterized by the rejection of the request by ASEAN’s envoy to Myanmar, Dato Erywan Yusof, to meet Aung San Suu Kyi and other detained leaders. With more verdicts pending, what will ASEAN’s next steps be?

      Bitter Pill

      It is easy to berate ASEAN for its delayed response to the February coup and to what has now become a humanitarian crisis, with nearly 1,300 dead, 200,000 displaced and 3 million in need of assistance. However, the immediate move by the United States, the European Union and the United Kingdom to enforce economic sanctions on Myanmar has not produced the hoped-for results.

      Although economic sanctions affect many industries across the country, such as the military conglomerates Myanmar Economic Corporation and Myanmar Economic Holdings Ltd, they have done little to nudge the military leaders toward a ceasefire. Instead, repression and bloodshed intensify by the day.

      The inefficacy of economic sanctions is a difficult pill to swallow, but it forces us to confront two realities. First, the military leaders assign very low importance to economic growth vis-à-vis the pursuit of their political agenda. In this crisis, the main focus of the military leaders is to right what they believe is wrong, namely nurturing a “true and disciplined democracy” based on the claim that the landslide NLD win in November 2020 was rigged.

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      The verdict against Aung San Suu Kyi is an indicator that despite a persistent international backlash, the economy has taken a backseat and will continue to be compromised if it means that the junta can legitimize its position.

      Economic and travel sanctions like those implemented by the European Union, the US Treasury, New Zealand and the United Kingdom, among others, will limit the movement of the military leaders and hold businesses in a tight chokehold. As the fight for survival continues, economic sanctions will only cause the skyrocketing of prices on goods most people will no longer be able to afford. Along with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, this will only help to drag half of Myanmar’s population into poverty in 2022.

      Secondly, curtailing Myanmar’s dealings with global actors like the US, the EU and the UN is not as fruitful as many would like to think. To offset the newest round of sanctions, Myanmar’s military leaders have linked arms with superpowers on the other side of the political spectrum, like China and Russia. Therefore, the remaining challenge for ASEAN is to develop a non-violent strategy that can bring a quick end to the bloodshed while making room for negotiations aimed at giving the people of Myanmar a say in their own future.

      From 1988 to 2021

      Despite the suppression of the 1988 uprising, when a military junta again seized power, and the ensuing crackdown on civil rights, then-Burma was admitted to ASEAN in 1997. The move was not without controversy, with continuing international pressure to make the admission contingent on democratic concessions from Yangon, but geopolitical and economic considerations drove ASEAN’s decision. Unsurprisingly, Myanmar’s accession opened a new set of challenges for the bloc, especially vis-à-vis its non-interference principle.

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      The policy discourages states from intervening in the internal affairs of fellow members, including criticism of state actions against its citizens, and condemns those perceived to be in breach of the non-intervention principle. It also denies support to any rebel group seeking to destabilize the government of a neighboring state, providing political support and material assistance to members to counter disruptive activity. To put it broadly, the non-interference policy means that all member states tend to take a hands-off approach when it comes to the national affairs of their regional counterparts.

      As a result, one of the main criticisms faced by ASEAN over the decades has to do with its delay in interfering in regional emergencies, like the 2015 Rohingya crisis that was later identified as ethnic cleansing by the United Nations. Thus, it was only by 2005 that ASEAN arrived at a collective consensus to bar Myanmar from the 2006 chairmanship to void a boycott by the West, with the US and the EU condemning the military’s refusal to implement democratic transition and release Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, who won the 1990 election but was placed under house arrest instead of assuming office.

      The association’s silence on its member states has become a significant liability for ASEAN’s reputation. Seeking to enhance the bloc’s international standing and to attract financial support and foreign investment, ASEAN nations finally had a common cause to intervene for the sake of regional stability. Myanmar’s eventual agreement to give up the chairmanship that year also meant the bloc was effective in keeping the military leaders updated on its incremental steps in having a more active approach for the sake of the social and economic stability of all member states.

      Embed from Getty Images

      Fast forward to February 2021, and both Myanmar and ASEAN find themselves in a near-identical predicament. After international criticism fueled lengthy discussions that lasted over two months, ASEAN reached the Five Point Consensus as its action plan. The surprise election of Dato Erywan Yusof as the bloc’s special envoy for Myanmar outside the original list of nominees followed, demonstrating not only the internal divides within the bloc but also indicating that Yusof was the only sound choice for ASEAN to earn the trust of all stakeholders and to make decisions with required caution.

      These moves show that extensive efforts have been taken in order for ASEAN to reach a consensus with the Myanmar leaders and, more importantly, for ASEAN to ensure Myanmar was still included in the process. The Five Point Consensus is a gradual strategy that offers a way for ASEAN to begin negotiations with the Myanmar military through diplomatic engagement and respecting the hard-fought national independence of other member states.

      Middle Ground

      To find a middle ground, Yusof has proposed measured, non-violent strategies that would begin with humanitarian assistance and policy guidance through the ASEAN Humanitarian Assistance Centre, followed by a more substantive discussion with the junta in exchange for full access to all parties. ASEAN is currently playing a calculated game of push-and-pull. The military leaders need their relevance in Myanmar politics to be acknowledged, which ASEAN has already indirectly provided; in response, the junta’s lack of cooperation and reciprocity to the consensus protocol provided room for ASEAN to plan its next step. 

      In comparison to the economic sanctions, by barring Myanmar’s representatives from this year’s summit, ASEAN has taken a more calculative approach in allowing the junta to consider the consequences of non-cooperation. Simultaneously, ASEAN‘s secretary general, Dato Lim Jock Hoi, stressed that humanitarian assistance “should not be politicised.” At the end of the October leaders’ summit, His Majesty Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah reiterated that “Myanmar is an integral part of the ASEAN family and their membership has not been questioned.”

      Unique Insights from 2,500+ Contributors in 90+ Countries

      Despite repeated urgency for stronger action, ASEAN recognizes that coercive strategies are not effective in seeking a final resolution. As much as this is a race against time, it is also unproductive to rush political negotiations that can result in more harm than good. It is clear that ASEAN has moved beyond its non-interference principle and is exercising both caution and effort as the sole moderator in this crisis. Ultimately, continuous criticism can only achieve so much.

      The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy. More

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      Three Months After Coup, Myanmar Returns to the ‘Bad Old Days’

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      Every night at 8, the stern-faced newscaster on Myanmar military TV announces the day’s hunted. The mug shots of those charged with political crimes appear onscreen. Among them are doctors, students, beauty queens, actors, reporters, even a pair of makeup bloggers.Some of the faces look puffy and bruised, the likely result of interrogations. They are a warning not to oppose the military junta that seized power in a Feb. 1 coup and imprisoned the country’s civilian leaders.As the midnight insects trill, the hunt intensifies. Military censors sever the internet across most of Myanmar, matching the darkness outside with an information blackout. Soldiers sweep through the cities, arresting, abducting and assaulting with slingshots and rifles.The nightly banging on doors, as arbitrary as it is dreaded, galvanizes a frenzy of self-preservation. Residents delete their Facebook accounts, destroy incriminating mobile phone cards and erase traces of support for Myanmar’s elected government. As sleep proves elusive, it’s as if much of the nation is suffering a collective insomnia.Little more than a decade ago, the most innocuous of infractions — owning a photograph of pro-democracy leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi or an unregistered cellphone or a single note of foreign currency — could mean a prison sentence. Some of the military’s Orwellian diktats rivaled those of North Korea.Security forces search for protesters as they crack down on a peaceful demonstration against the military coup in Yangon, in April.The New York TimesThree months after Myanmar’s experiment in democracy was strangled by the generals’ power grab, the sense of foreboding has returned. There is no indication that it will ease. For the better part of 60 years, the military’s rule over Myanmar was animated not by grand ideology but by fear. Today, with much of the population determined to resist the coup-makers, a new junta is consolidating its grip by resorting, yet again, to a reign of terror.“Myanmar is going back to the bad old days when people were so scared that their neighbors would inform on them and they could get arrested for no reason at all,” said Ko Moe Yan Naing, a former police officer who is now in hiding after opposing the coup.Prisons are once again filled with poets, Buddhist monks and politicians. Hundreds more, many young men, have disappeared, their families ignorant of their whereabouts, according to a group that tracks the military’s detentions. More than 770 civilians have been killed by security forces since the putsch, among them dozens of children.As they did years before, people walk the streets with the adrenaline-fueled sense of neck hairs prickling, a glance from a soldier or a lingering gaze from a passer-by chilling the air.Protesters fight with security forces in Yangon in March.The New York TimesYet if the junta is reflexively returning to rule by fear, it is also holding hostage a changed country. The groundswell of opposition to the coup, which has sustained protests in hundreds of cities and towns, was surely not in the military’s game plan, making its crackdown all the riskier. Neither the outcome of the putsch nor the fate of the resistance is preordained.Myanmar’s full emergence from isolation — economic, political and social — only came five years ago when the military began sharing power with an elected government headed by Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi. A population that barely had any connection to the internet quickly made up for lost time. Today, its citizenry is well versed in social media and the power of protests tethered to global movements. They know how to spot a good political meme on the internet.Their resistance to the coup has included a national strike and a civil disobedience movement, which have paralyzed the economy and roiled the government. Banks and hospitals are all but shut. Although the United Nations has warned that half the country could be living in poverty by next year because of the pandemic and the political crisis, the democratic opposition’s resolve shows no sign of weakening.More than 770 civilians have been killed by security forces since the putsch.The New York TimesIn late March, Ma Thuzar Nwe, a history teacher, branded her skin with defiance. The tattoo on the nape of her neck reads: “Spring Revolution Feb. 2021.”The police are now stopping people on the streets, looking for evidence on their phones or bodies of support for the National Unity Government, a civilian authority set up after the elected leadership was expelled by the military. A popular tactic is to affix an image of Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, the coup leader, on the sole of a shoe, smashing his face into the ground with each step. During spot checks, the police now demand that people show their soles.Ms. Thuzar Nwe says she wears her hair down to cover her tattoo, hoping the police won’t be too inquisitive.“In Myanmar culture, if a woman has a tattoo, she’s a bad girl,” she said. “I broke the rules of culture. This revolution is a rare chance to eradicate dictatorship from the country.”But the Tatmadaw, as the Myanmar military is known, has built an entire infrastructure dedicated to one purpose: perpetuating its power for power’s sake.Its bureaucracy of oppression is formidable. An army of informers, known as “dalan,” has reappeared, monitoring whispers and neighbors’ movements.The blandly named General Administration Department, a vast apparatus that remained under military control even after the army had started sharing authority with the civilian government, is once again pressuring administrators to keep tabs on everyone’s political views. And local officials have taken to banging on doors and peering in homes, as a dreaded system of household registration is reintroduced.Military vehicles during the national Armed Forces Day in Naypyidaw, Myanmar, in March.Associated PressEach morning, as residents count the dead and missing, the military’s media present its version of reality, all the more pervasive since the junta has revoked the publishing licenses of major private newspapers. Democracy will return soon, the military’s headlines insist. Banking services are running “as usual.” Health care with “modern machinery” is available. Government ministries are enjoying English-proficiency courses. Soft-shell crab cultivation is “thriving” and penetrating the foreign market.The Tatmadaw may have modernized its military arsenal, acquiring Chinese-made weapons and Russian fighter jets. But its propaganda is stuck in a time warp from back when few challenged its narrative. There is no mention in its media of the military’s killing spree, the broken economy or the growing armed resistance. On Wednesday, the State Administration Council, as the junta calls itself, banned satellite TV.For all the fear percolating in Myanmar, the resistance has only hardened. On Wednesday, the National Unity Government said it was forming a “people’s defense force” to counter the Tatmadaw. Two days before, ethnic insurgents fighting in the borderlands shot down a Tatmadaw helicopter.Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing in 2016.Hein Htet/European Pressphoto AgencyIgnoring such developments, the Tatmadaw’s media instead devote space to the supposed infractions of thousands of civilians who must be locked up for “undermining state peace and stability.” Among them are AIDS patients so weak they can barely walk.More than for the civilian population, such propaganda is meant to convince the military ranks that the coup was necessary, Tatmadaw insiders said. Sequestered in military compounds without good internet access, soldiers have little ability to tap into the outrage of fellow citizens. Their information diet is composed of military TV, military newspapers and the echo chambers of military-dominated Facebook on the rare occasions they can get online.Still, news does filter in, and some officers have broken rank. In recent weeks, about 80 Myanmar Air Force officers have deserted and are now in hiding, according to fellow military personnel.“Politics are not the business of soldiers,” said an air force captain who is now in hiding and does not want his name used because his family might be punished for his desertion. “Now the Tatmadaw have become the terrorists, and I don’t want to be part of it.”Myanmar’s citizens are now well versed in social media and the power of protests tethered to global movements, since the country opened up a few years ago.The New York TimesIn the cities, almost everyone seems to know someone who has been arrested or beaten or forced to pay a bribe to the security forces in exchange for freedom.Last month, Ma May Thaw Zin, a 19-year-old law student, joined a flash mob protest in Yangon, the country’s biggest city. The police, she said, detained several young women and crammed them into an interrogation center cell so small they barely had room to sit on the floor.For a whole day, there was no food. Ms. May Thaw Zin said she resorted to drinking from the toilet. The interrogations were just her and a clutch of men. They rubbed against her and kicked her breasts and face with their boots, she said. On the fourth day, after men shoved the barrel of a pistol against the black hood over her head, she was released. The bruises remain.Since she returned home, some family members have refused to have anything to do with her because she was caught protesting, Ms. May Thaw Zin said. Even if they hate the coup, even if they know their futures have been blunted, the instincts of survival have kicked in.“They are afraid,” she said, but “I can’t accept that my country will go back to the old dark age.”Riot police prepared to remove protesters who attempted to block a motorcade of security forces in February.The New York Times More

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      Why Joe Biden Must Act on Myanmar

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      Burma, as Myanmar was known then, won its independence from the British in 1948. Since then, bilateral relations between the US and Myanmar can at best be described as lackluster. They have lacked what experts would call “strategic compulsions.” Western allies of the US lack strategic calculus in dealing with Myanmar. They have viewed it from the narrow prism of moralistic Western standards of democracy, human rights, rule of law, corruption and the trafficking of humans, drugs and weapons.

      Myanmar: What Comes Next for Minority Groups?

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      To be fair, the US has not always or entirely been sanctimonious. The historic Kissinger Doctrine integrated China into the liberal postwar order. It facilitated investments into, transferred technology to and trained manpower in China. Under Deng Xiaoping and his successors, China continued its peaceful rise. Xi Jinping, the current Chinese president, has ended that peaceful rise and destabilized the world order.

      Missing Out on Myanmar

      The US approach to Myanmar has been muddled and inconsistent. During the Cold War, Washington was happy to deal with allies in Asia that were military dictatorships. Under President Richard Nixon and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, the US was happy to deal with a communist regime.

      In contrast, Burma was a parliamentary democracy from 1948 to 1962 when Ne Win led a military coup. For the next 26 years, the country was ruled by the Tatmadaw, the official name of the country’s armed forces. In 1988, nationwide protests broke out. Aung San Suu Kyi, the Oxford-educated daughter of Burmese independence leader Aung San, emerged as the leader of a pro-democracy movement. The National League of Democracy (NLD) went on to win the 1990, 2015 and 2020 parliamentary elections.

      In comparison with China, Myanmar’s regime has been far less oppressive. There is no counterpart to the Great Leap Forward or the Cultural Revolution. The Tatmadaw has yielded to public pressure and held largely free and fair elections. In elections, even members of the Tatmadaw have voted for Suu Kyi’s NLD. Yet the US and its Western allies have ignored the strategic importance of Myanmar in the Indian Ocean region in general and the Bay of Bengal in particular.

      Chinese Influence Wanes and Waxes

      In the past, the US and its allies put pressure on the Tatmadaw by imposing sanctions on Myanmar. Instead of weakening the Tatmadaw, sanctions hurt the people and pushed the country into the arms of China. Between 2004 and 2007, a generational change in the Tatmadaw caused a rethink in Myanmar’s relationship with China.

      The younger officers of the Tatmadaw decided to decrease dependence on Beijing. They tried to reduce Chinese influence in political and military governance. They attempted to transition to some form of democracy and improve relations with the West and neighbors like India. In 2011, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton swung by Myanmar. President Barack Obama visited twice in 2012 and 2014. By 2016-17, the persecution of Rohingya Muslims, an ethnic minority in the country’s Rakhine state, was in the news and relations between the US and Myanmar were already souring.

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      Yet this was a relatively good time for the country. Even financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank opened their purse strings. During this brief honeymoon period with the West, China found itself on the back foot for the first time since 1988.

      In 2011, Myanmar suspended the construction of the Myitsone dam, a controversial hydroelectric project financed and led by a state-owned Chinese company. In 2015, Myanmar’s general elections led to yet another victory for Suu Kyi’s NLD. This was an opportune moment for the West to build relations with Myanmar and counter China. The Tatmadaw had ceded ground to elected officials. Washington could have cultivated both of Myanmar’s centers of power: the NLD and the Tatmadaw.

      But the US missed this opportunity. From 2017, the Rohingya issue clouded Myanmar’s relationship with the West and allowed China to regain its clout in the country. The military coup in February this year strengthens China’s hand further.

      China has already been strengthening its hand by following its tried and tested policy of investing in infrastructure. The China–Myanmar Transport Corridor is connecting the Chinese province of Yunnan to the Bay of Bengal. Roads, railways, river navigation, oil and gas pipelines are deepening economic ties between Myanmar and China. It is part of the Middle Kingdom’s “Look South” policy that seeks to draw Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal and Pakistan into the Chinese arc of influence.

      The military coup in Myanmar presents a great opportunity to China and represents the first major foreign policy challenge to President Joe Biden’s administration as well as the Quadrilateral Security Alliance, the informal strategic dialogue between the US, Japan, Australia and India known as the Quad.

      The US Still Has Some Cards

      China may be in the ascendant right now, but the West still has clout in Myanmar. Suu Kyi studied at Oxford, lived in the UK for decades and married an Englishman. People from Myanmar have immigrated to Australia, New Zealand, the UK and the US. So, the West commands what Joseph Nye has calls “soft power” in the country. Burmese people want to immigrate not to China but to the US.

      Yet American foreign policy to Myanmar has squandered this soft power prodigally. Obama is the only American president who gave Myanmar the attention it deserved. His foreign policy pivot to Asia was a strategic masterstroke, but Donald Trump abandoned Obama’s outreach not only to Myanmar but the rest of Asia.

      The military coup is a wake-up call for the US to act. China is now firmly in the saddle in Myanmar. The Tatmadaw is finding ferocious resistance on the streets. There is another overlooked problem. Like many postcolonial states, Myanmar is a bewildering patchwork of cultural, ethnic and linguistic groups. Many of them have been fighting for independence or autonomy for years.

      Few in the West realize that a savage conflict might be about to break out. About 20 rebel groups, including the United Wa State Army, Karen National Union, Kachin Independence Army and Arakan Army, control 33% of Myanmar’s territory. Many of them have condemned the coup. In response, the Tatmadaw has launched airstrikes in Karen state. With drugs and arms flush in rebel areas, Myanmar might be about to become the new Afghanistan.

      The Quad leaders’ joint statement on the White House website emphasizes “the urgent need to restore democracy and the priority of strengthening democratic resilience” in Myanmar. This mention is heartening, but the Quad and the US need to do more. Opening dialogue with the Tatmadaw would be a good start. Intelligence sources report that most young officers favor multi-party democracy and are wary of Myanmar turning into a Chinese tributary.

      A carrot-and-stick approach by Washington could still work. The World Bank has halted payments to projects after the military coup. International condemnation has rattled the Tatmadaw. Pressure to reach a political reconciliation might bear fruit. Carrots in the form of infrastructure funding and development assistance could prove attractive. Involving Asian nations such as India, Japan, South Korea and Bangladesh, as well as member states of ASEAN, could pave the path to Myanmar’s transition away from military rule.

      Despite foreign policy blunders, economic woes and internal division, the US is still the undisputed top dog in the world. With the help of its Asian and European allies, Washington can counter China, prevent civil war and restore democracy in Myanmar. The time has come for Biden to act.

      The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy. More