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      What’s Missing in Israel’s Election? Biden.

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      But that may not be a good sign after all.On March 23, Israel will go to the polls for its fourth national election in two years. The worst part is that this depressing Election Day may just be a prelude to yet another: Opinion polling suggests that Israel’s political blocs will struggle to elect and form a stable parliamentary majority. Our politics, it seems, are stuck on a repetitive doom loop.At least one thing is different: This time, the American president is a nonentity.Consider two election cycles of the last decade. In 2015, just days before Israelis voted, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Washington and spoke before Congress about the threat of Iran. Mr. Netanyahu made his fierce opposition to President Barack Obama and his Iran deal central to his campaign. Four years later, when Israel entered its current long cycle of repeated elections, Mr. Netanyahu posted his image alongside that of President Donald Trump on a high-rise overlooking Tel Aviv’s main highway. This time his goal was making America a central feature of his campaign, by highlighting his closeness to the president. In both cases, the political messaging was spot-on.Mr. Netanyahu was hardly the first Israeli politician to make America’s president an electoral issue. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert was helped by President George W. Bush. Prime Minister Ehud Barak was elected with the backing of President Bill Clinton’s administration.Why are American presidents so central to elections in a country so far away from Washington? First, because Israelis see the United States as a cornerstone of their country’s security. And while Israelis’ confidence in the alliance has somewhat eroded in recent years, the ability of their leaders to understand, debate and confront the leaders in Washington is still important. Second, what happens in Israel also matters to America; Israeli politics are also part of Washington’s strategy for the Middle East.But in the lead-up to this month’s election, there has been neither an embrace of President Biden nor a repudiation of him. And that’s not for a lack of opportunity. Nearly four weeks passed between Mr. Biden’s inauguration and his first call to Israel’s prime minister. That was viewed by many as a snub. But when Mr. Netanyahu was asked this month why Mr. Biden was so late to call him, the prime minister didn’t try to convince the voters that in fact, Mr. Biden was his best friend; nor did he try to claim that Mr. Biden was a great foe who threatened Israel’s security. He dismissed the question with a few generalities and moved on.Mr. Netanyahu’s main rivals, Yair Lapid, Naftali Bannett and Gideon Saar, have also been hesitant to seize on the issue, or on early signs of disagreement between Washington and Israel over Iran as proof that the prime minister is not fit to keep Israel secure.There’s a simple explanation, and a more complicated one, for this unusual absence. First, the simple: Israelis do not yet know whether Mr. Biden will prove to be a friend, like his predecessor, or a thorn in their side, like the president he previously served under. Mr. Netanyahu cannot yet oppose him because so far he has done nothing objectionable, and alienating the White House for no good reason is beyond the pale even for a cynic like Mr. Netanyahu. The opposite is also true: Mr. Biden has not yet proved himself to be Israel’s friend as president, and so the prime minister’s rivals must be careful not to portray themselves as his admirers.The more complicated explanation concerns America’s interest in the Middle East and the country’s relative irrelevance to much that is happening in the region. The United States was unsuccessful in its halfhearted quest to contain Iranian expansion; it was missing in action in the Syrian civil war; it bet on wrong horses during the so-called Arab Spring; it has alienated the Saudis, let Russia take over Libya and did nothing of value to resolve the Palestinian issue. The list goes on.In fact, the only true achievement of the United States in the region in recent years is the Abraham Accords, the normalization agreement between Israel and the Gulf Arab countries, which was orchestrated by the Trump administration. But this significant move was achieved not as a triumph of the traditional American policy but because American diplomacy was on leave — temporarily occupied by the revolutionary troops of the Trump administration.If America’s leaders are just tired of being involved in Israel’s never-ending political process, I can’t fully blame them. We Israelis are all tired of it, too. We would all wish for a little break. And yet, an Israeli election with no America as a background noise is disturbingly strange. Is this another proof that America is less interested in the country that much depends on its support? Are we being demoted?In more than one way, the policy of the Biden administration seems to be moving along a trajectory that assumes a less central role for Middle East affairs in America’s foreign policy. So it’s quite possible that Israel’s needs are becoming less urgent and that who leads Israel matters less in the eyes of the United States. In such case, the proper election question for Israelis is no longer “Which leader could better deal with America?” but “Which leader can better manage without America?”Shmuel Rosner (@rosnersdomain) is the editor of the Israeli data-journalism site TheMadad.com, a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute and a contributing opinion writer.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      In Israeli Election, a Chance for Arabs to Gain Influence, or Lose It

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyIn Israeli Election, a Chance for Arabs to Gain Influence, or Lose ItJewish politicians, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, are courting Arab Israeli voters, and some Arab politicians are prepared to work with them.Mansour Abbas, an Islamist leader hoping to join the next Israeli government, campaigns in Daburiyya, an Arab village in northern Israel.Credit…Dan Balilty for The New York TimesPatrick Kingsley and Feb. 21, 2021, 5:00 a.m. ETKAFR KANNA, Israel — Mansour Abbas, a conservative Muslim, is an unlikely political partner for the leaders of the Jewish state.He is a proponent of political Islam. He heads an Arab party descended from the same religious stream that spawned the militant Hamas movement. And for most of his political life, he never considered supporting the right-leaning parties that have led Israel for most of the past four decades.Yet if Mr. Abbas has his way, he could help decide the next Israeli prime minister after next month’s general election, even if it means returning a right-wing alliance to power. Tired of the peripheral role traditionally played by Israel’s Arab parties, he hopes his small Islamist group, Raam, will hold the balance of power after the election and prove an unavoidable partner for any Jewish leader seeking to form a coalition.“We can work with anyone,” Mr. Abbas said in an interview on the campaign trail in Kafr Kanna, a small Arab town in northern Israel on the site where the Christian Bible says Jesus turned water into wine. In the past, “Arab politicians have been onlookers in the political process in Israel,” he said. Now, he added, “Arabs are looking for a real role in Israeli politics.”Mr. Abbas’s shift is part of a wider transformation occurring within the Arab political world in Israel.Accelerated by the election campaign, two trends are converging: On the one hand, Arab politicians and voters increasingly believe that to improve the lives of Arabs in Israel, they need to seek power within the system instead of exerting pressure from the outside. Separately, mainstream Israeli parties are realizing they need to attract Arab voters to win a very close election — and some are willing to work with Arab parties as potential coalition partners.Both trends are born more of political pragmatism than dogma. And while the moment has the potential to give Arab voters real power, it could backfire: Mr. Abbas’s actions will split the Arab vote, as will the overtures from Jewish-led parties, and both factors might lower the numbers of Arab lawmakers in the next Parliament.Campaign billboards for Balad, a left-wing Arab party, attacking Mr. Netanyahu. The one on the left says, “Out of tune.”Credit…Ammar Awad/ReutersBut after a strong showing in the last election, in which Arab parties won a record 15 seats, becoming the third-largest party in the 120-seat Parliament, and were still locked out of the governing coalition, some are looking for other options.“After more than a decade with Netanyahu in power, some Arab politicians have put forward a new approach: If you can’t beat him, join him,” said Mohammad Magadli, a well-known Arab television host. “This approach is bold, but it is also very dangerous.”Palestinian citizens of Israel form more than a fifth of the Israeli population. Since the founding of the state in 1948, they have always sent a handful of Arab lawmakers to Parliament. But those lawmakers have always struggled to make an impact.Jewish leaders have not seen Arab parties as acceptable coalition partners — some on the right vilifying them as enemies of the state and seeking the suspension of Arab lawmakers from Parliament. For their part, Arab parties have generally been more comfortable in opposition, lending infrequent support only to center-left parties whose influence has waned since the start of the century.In some ways, this dynamic worsened in recent years. In 2015, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cited the threat of relatively high Arab turnout — “Arab voters are streaming in huge quantities to the polling stations,” he warned on Election Day — to scare his base into voting. In 2018, his government passed new legislation that downgraded the status of Arabic and formally described Israel as the nation-state of only the Jewish people. And in 2020, even his centrist rival, Benny Gantz, refused to form a government based on the support of Arab parties.But a year later, as Israel heads to its fourth election in two years of political deadlock, this paradigm is rapidly shifting.Mr. Netanyahu is now vigorously courting the Arab electorate. Following his lead, Yair Lapid, a centrist contender for the premiership, said he could form a coalition with Arab lawmakers, despite disparaging them earlier in his career. Two left-wing parties have promised to work with an alliance of Arab lawmakers to advance Arab interests.Polling suggests a majority of Palestinian citizens of Israel want their lawmakers to play a role in government. Mr. Abbas says Arab politicians should win influence by supporting parties that promise to improve Arab society. Another prominent Arab politician, Ali Salam, the mayor of Nazareth, Israel’s largest Arab city, has expressed support for Mr. Netanyahu, arguing that despite his past comments, the prime minister is sincere about improving Arab lives.Arab men in Umm al Fahm praying at a protest against increasing crime and violence in Arab communities.  Credit…Ahmad Gharabli/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images“In the Israeli political system, it used to be a sin to collaborate with Arab parties or even Arab voters,” said Nahum Barnea, one of Israel’s best-known columnists. But Mr. Netanyahu has suddenly made Arabs “a legitimate partner to any political maneuver.”“In a way he opened a box that, I hope, cannot be closed from now on,” Mr. Barnea added.Mr. Netanyahu’s transition has been among the most remarkable. He has pledged greater resources for Arab communities and to fight endemic crime in Arab neighborhoods. And he has begun calling himself “Yair’s father” — a reference to his son, Yair, that also riffs affectionately on the Arab practice of referring to someone as the parent of their firstborn child.In a watershed moment in January, he announced a “new era” for Arab Israelis at a rally in Nazareth and made a qualified apology for his past comments about Arab voters. “I apologized then and I apologize today as well,” he said, before adding that critics had “twisted my words.”Critics say Mr. Netanyahu is courting Arab voters because he needs them to win, not because he sincerely cares about them. This month he also agreed to include within his next coalition a far-right party whose leader wants to disqualify many Arabs from running for Parliament. And he has ruled out forming a government that relies on Mr. Abbas’s support.Next month’s election is expected to be as close as each of the previous three.Mr. Netanyahu is currently on trial for corruption charges, and if he stays in power he could pursue laws that insulate him from prosecution.“What Netanyahu cares about is Netanyahu,” said Afif Abu Much, a prominent commentator on Arab politics in Israel.Courting Arab voters, Mr. Netanyahu has pledged greater resources for Arab communities and to fight endemic crime in Arab neighborhoods.Credit…Pool photo by Reuben CastroLikewise, Arab politicians and voters have not shed all their discomfort with Zionism and Israeli policies in the occupied territories. But there is a growing realization that problems the Arab community faces — gang violence, poverty and discrimination in access to housing and land — will not be solved without Arab politicians shaping policy at the highest level.“I want different results so I need to change the approach,” Mr. Abbas said. “The crises in Arab society reached a boiling point.”Yet Mr. Abbas’s plan could easily fail and undercut what little influence Arab citizens currently have.To run on his new platform, Mr. Abbas had to withdraw from an alliance of Arab parties, the Joint List, whose remaining members are unconvinced about working with the Israeli right. And this split could dilute the collective power of Arab lawmakers.Support for Mr. Abbas’s party currently hovers near the threshold of 3.25 percent that parties need to secure entry to Parliament. Even if his party scrapes above the line, there is no guarantee that any contender for the premiership will need or seek the party’s support to secure the 61 seats necessary to form a coalition.“Arabs are looking for a real role in Israeli politics,” Mr. Abbas says.Credit…Dan Balilty for The New York TimesMr. Netanyahu, despite his previous incitement against Arabs, could also draw Arab voters away from Arab parties, reducing their influence. Still more might stay home, disillusioned by the divisions within the Arab parties and their inability to achieve meaningful change, or to boycott a state whose authority they reject.“I don’t believe in any of them, or trust any of them,” said Siham Ighbariya, a 40-year-old homemaker. She rose to prominence through her quest to achieve justice for her husband and son, who were murdered at home in 2012 by an unknown killer.“I’ve dealt with all of them,” Ms. Ighbariya said of the Arab political class. “And nothing has happened.”For some Palestinians, participation in Israel’s government is a betrayal of the Palestinian cause — a criticism Mr. Abbas understands. “I have this deep personal conflict inside of me,” he acknowledged. “We have been engaged in a conflict for 100 years, a bloody and difficult conflict.”But it was time to move on, he added. “You need to be able to look to the future, and to build a better future for everyone, both Arabs and Jews.”AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      Why Israel Faces a Fourth Election in Just Two Years

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyWhy Israel Faces a Fourth Election in Just Two YearsWhat to know as Israel gears up for another vote, this time set for March 23.Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, center, is again fighting for political survival.Credit…Amir Cohen/ReutersDec. 23, 2020, 9:05 a.m. ETJERUSALEM — With Israel heading to its fourth election in two years after the collapse of its government, many in the country are wondering whether it’s a case of too much democracy.The last three ballots ended inconclusively, with no single candidate able to muster the parliamentary majority required to form a government. The stalemate allowed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of the conservative Likud party to persuade his main rival, Benny Gantz of the centrist Blue and White party, to join forces in an uneasy coalition.It lasted just seven months.Mr. Netanyahu now finds himself again fighting for political survival while on trial, charged with bribery, fraud and breach of trust, and amid the coronavirus pandemic, which has devastated the Israeli economy.Here is what to watch for as Israel gears up for another election, this time set for March 23.Why is this happening?A protest in Jerusalem this month over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, corruption and his handling of the coronavirus pandemic.Credit…Amir Cohen/ReutersThe main reason, analysts say, is Mr. Netanyahu’s legal and political calculation that he can best fight his criminal case from the prime minister’s office. They say he is ready to take the country to election after election in an effort to cling to power.Ostensibly, the latest government fell over Mr. Netanyahu’s refusal to pass a state budget for 2020 by the legal deadline of midnight on Tuesday, in violation of his coalition agreement with Mr. Gantz.Mr. Netanyahu is betting on being able to form a more sympathetic government that could grant him immunity from prosecution, analysts say. His corruption trial is scheduled to move into an intensive evidentiary stage early next year, when the country will witness the spectacle of his appearing in court.Mr. Netanyahu blamed Mr. Gantz for the breakdown in the coalition government, saying that he and his Blue and White party refused to allow the prime minister any say in a series of upcoming government and judicial appointments. But opinion polls indicate that most Israelis blame Mr. Netanyahu.“There are a lot of smoke screens, but I think we need to be fair and to be quite explicit about it,” said Yohanan Plesner, the president of the Israel Democracy Institute, a nonpartisan research group.“This won’t end until either Mr. Netanyahu is replaced or if he finds a way, by legislation or political maneuvering, to either put his trial on hold or to suspend it altogether,” Mr. Plesner said.What happened in the last three elections?Benny Gantz, the Blue and White party leader, addressing supporters in February.Credit…Dan Balilty for The New York TimesThe last three ballots were essentially a face-off between Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Gantz, a former army chief who entered politics two years ago.Mr. Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, came with a strong Likud base and experience. The centrist Blue and White under Mr. Gantz promised national unity and the rule of law.Banding together with smaller parties that vaguely divided up along right-wing-religious and center-left lines, the two blocs ended up in a chronic tie. After two elections failed to produce a stable government, Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Gantz joined forces.Will Round 4 be different?A new conservative challenger, Gideon Saar, center, hopes to draw voters away from Mr. Netanyahu.Credit…Jack Guez/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesPerhaps. A few weeks ago, opinion polls indicated that Mr. Netanyahu would be well positioned to form a new government made up of right-wing loyalists and his ultra-Orthodox allies. But a new conservative challenger, Gideon Saar, has since entered the ring and rejiggered the electoral map, competing for Mr. Netanyahu’s base voters, among others.Mr. Saar, who lost to Mr. Netanyahu in a Likud leadership race a year ago, recently defected from the party and set up a rival one called New Hope, taking a few coalition members with him. Osnat Mark, a Likud lawmaker and Netanyahu loyalist, called New Hope “a party of traitors and deserters.”Mr. Gantz lost most of his public support after joining forces with Mr. Netanyahu, having previously made an election pledge not to. With his Blue and White party now disintegrating amid infighting, the main battle this time is likely to be for the leadership of the right.Numerous polls taken since Mr. Saar’s move suggest, however, that there is still no party leader with an easy path to forming a government.Because no single party ever manages to command an outright majority in the 120-seat Parliament, larger parties must join forces with smaller ones to form a viable coalition. That often gives minor coalition partners disproportionate leverage.If no candidate garners a majority of 61 this time, Israel’s political crisis could go on. And on.What’s at stake for Mr. Netanyahu and for Israel?Israelis at a Dubai shopping mall during a visit to the United Arab Emirates in October. Israel and the Emirates reached a landmark accord this year.Credit…Dan Balilty for The New York TimesA March election comes with significant risk for Mr. Netanyahu, who tried unsuccessfully to postpone Parliament’s budget deadline after Mr. Saar broke away.Israel’s coronavirus vaccination campaign is just getting underway, so a late spring or summer vote might have been more advantageous for him, because an economic recovery might have begun by then.Instead, the campaign will take place as Israel grapples with a third wave of the virus.In another handicap for Mr. Netanyahu, he will be facing voters this time without the support and election gifts provided by his closest international ally, President Trump, and will instead have to deal with the Biden administration after it takes over in January.Yet Mr. Netanyahu, popularly known as Bibi, also has plenty he can boast about. With the help of the Trump administration, he has delivered deals to establish diplomatic relations with four formerly hostile Arab countries in the past four months.His administrations have led the country through years of relative security stability, and the country has now secured millions of coronavirus vaccine doses.“Israel could definitely become one of the first countries to emerge from the crisis,” he said in a televised address on Tuesday night.Election promises made by his staunchest political opponents, including Mr. Gantz, never to sit in a coalition led by a prime minister under criminal indictment have proved worthless in the past.With politicians at loggerheads over fundamental issues like equality and the powers of the courts, Israelis must now decide what kind of democracy they want and which candidate is best equipped to contend with challenges posed by the coronavirus and with regional threats from Iran and its proxies.Whatever the case, this next election, like the three before it, is set to largely be a contest between the “Only Bibi” and “Anyone but Bibi” camps.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      Israeli Government Collapses, Forcing 4th Election in 2 Years

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyIsraeli Government Collapses, Forcing 4th Election in 2 YearsA protracted political crisis revolving around Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s legal troubles brings down the coalition government.Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, “I’m not afraid of elections. We’re ready for them. We’ll win.”Credit…Pool photo by Ronen ZvulunDec. 22, 2020Updated 5:09 p.m. ETJERUSALEM — Israel’s government collapsed Tuesday, pushing the country into yet another early election — the fourth in two years.The Israeli Parliament dissolved itself at midnight on Tuesday. The move forced a new election after weeks of infighting and paralysis in the so-called unity government, an uneasy coalition sworn in just seven months ago that paired Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s conservative Likud party with his main rival-turned-partner, Benny Gantz of the centrist Blue and White party.Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Gantz blamed each other for the crisis.“I think at the current time, we should have united forces to find a way to avert these needless elections,” Mr. Netanyahu said in Parliament early Tuesday as he tried, and failed, to seek a delay in its dissolution.A new election must take place in three months and is scheduled for March 23. But an election date in the late spring or summer, once the coronavirus vaccination campaign is well underway, might have been more advantageous for Mr. Netanyahu.Parliament automatically dispersed at midnight after failing to meet the legal deadline for approving a budget for 2020. Mr. Netanyahu, whose party holds the finance portfolio, had refused to present a budget, in violation of his coalition agreement with Mr. Gantz — the ostensible reason for the government breakdown.But at the heart of the crisis lies a deep, mutual distrust between the two men and a country fundamentally split over the fate of Mr. Netanyahu, whose corruption trial is scheduled to move into an intensive, evidentiary stage in early 2021, requiring his regular presence in court. He has been charged with bribery, fraud and breach of trust. He denies any wrongdoing.Benny Gantz, left, and Mr. Netanyahu have blamed each other for the crisis that has brought their government to the point of collapse.Credit…Pool photo by Tal ShaharAnalysts said that Mr. Netanyahu was gambling on another election in the hope of forming a right-wing, religious government that would grant him some kind of immunity from prosecution.“It’s not the budget, stupid,” said Reuven Hazan, a professor of political science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. Mr. Netanyahu “needs a government that will pass legislation either to delay his case for the foreseeable future or cancel it altogether,” he added.But failing to present a budget and forcing the dispersal of Parliament provides him with an escape hatch from the coalition agreement stipulating that Mr. Gantz should take over as prime minister 11 months from now. From the inception of the unity government, few people, including Mr. Gantz, expected Mr. Netanyahu to honor that agreement.Mr. Gantz’s party, for its part, refused to back any compromise with Mr. Netanyahu over the authority for making key appointments, including for the posts of attorney general and state attorney. A compromise would have violated Blue and White’s flagship policy of upholding the rule of law but would have kept the government on life support.Mr. Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, who is renowned for his political savvy, quickly pivoted into campaign mode.“The majority of the citizens of Israel see our leadership and our tremendous achievements,” he said in a televised address on Tuesday evening. “We are bringing in millions of vaccinations, delivering historic peace agreements, curbing the Iranian threat and turning Israel into one of the world’s leading economies.”Mr. Gantz said his party had entered Mr. Netanyahu’s government, despite paying a high political price, “to serve the best interests of the country, given the needs and scale of the moment.”“Unfortunately,” he added, “we found no partner on the other end.”A demonstrator was detained in Jerusalem this month during a protest against Mr. Netanyahu and his handling of the coronavirus crisis.Credit…Amir Cohen/ReutersThe current government will remain in place in a caretaker capacity until after the election and the formation of a new government, a process that could take many months.Both Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Gantz are taking a considerable political risk by going back to the polls.The unity government was formed as a last resort after three inconclusive elections ended without any one candidate being able to muster a parliamentary majority. While Mr. Netanyahu and his Likud party were far ahead in the polls a few weeks ago, a new conservative challenger, Gideon Saar, has shaken things up.Mr. Saar, who lost to Mr. Netanyahu in a Likud leadership race a year ago, recently defected from the party and set up a rival one called New Hope. Drawing support from disenchanted voters from both the right and the political center, Mr. Saar’s move has muddied any clear path back to power for Mr. Netanyahu, according to recent opinion polls, meaning that Israel’s political morass may persist even beyond a new election.Mr. Gantz’s Blue and White party had already lost the bulk of its popular support after it broke its campaign promise and entered into government with a prime minister under indictment. Critics say that Mr. Gantz, a former army chief, is a weak and indecisive party leader and that his two-year political career is all but over.“I think he needs to get up and go,” Professor Hazan, the political science expert, said.Damning him further, Mr. Netanyahu said that he had actually reached a compromise with Mr. Gantz on Monday on the issue of appointments and authorities, but that rebels within the Blue and White party, including the justice minister, Avi Nissenkorn, had blocked Mr. Gantz from making the deal.Miki Zohar, a Likud official, said Blue and White was committing “political suicide.”AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      To Understand Red-State America, He Urges a Look at Red-State Israel

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      Israel Takes First Step Toward New Election

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyIsrael Takes First Step Toward New ElectionPrime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition partners sided with the opposition in a preliminary vote to bring down the government, which has been largely paralyzed over infighting.Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, center, persuaded his rival Benny Gantz to join a unity government after three inconclusive elections.Credit…Pool photo by Alex KolomoiskyBy More

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      Dear Joe, It’s Not About Iran’s Nukes Anymore

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      With the assassination by Israel of Iran’s top nuclear warhead designer, the Middle East is promising to complicate Joe Biden’s job from day one. President-elect Biden knows the region well, but if I had one piece of advice for him, it would be this: This is not the Middle East you left four years ago.The best way for Biden to appreciate the new Middle East is to study what happened in the early hours of Sept. 14, 2019 — when the Iranian Air Force launched 20 drones and precision-guided cruise missiles at Abqaiq, one of Saudi Arabia’s most important oil fields and processing centers, causing huge damage. It was a seminal event.The Iranian drones and cruise missiles flew so low and with such stealth that neither their takeoff nor their impending attack was detected in time by Saudi or U.S. radar. Israeli military analysts, who were stunned by the capabilities the Iranians displayed, argued that this surprise attack was the Middle East’s “Pearl Harbor.”They were right. The Middle East was reshaped by this Iranian precision missile strike, by President Trump’s response and by the response of Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to Trump’s response.A lot of people missed it, so let’s go to the videotape.First, how did President Trump react? He did nothing. He did not launch a retaliatory strike on behalf of Saudi Arabia — even though Iran, unprovoked, had attacked the heart of Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure.A few weeks later Trump did send 3,000 U.S. troops and some antimissile batteries to Saudi Arabia to bolster its defense — but with this message on Oct. 11, 2019: “We are sending troops and other things to the Middle East to help Saudi Arabia. But — are you ready? Saudi Arabia, at my request, has agreed to pay us for everything we’re doing. That’s a first.”It sure was a first. I’m not here to criticize Trump, though. He was reflecting a deep change in the American public. His message: Dear Saudis, America is now the world’s biggest oil producer; we’re getting out of the Middle East; happy to sell you as many weapons as you can pay cash for, but don’t count on us to fight your battles. You want U.S. troops? Show me the money.That clear shift in American posture gave birth to the first new element that Biden will confront in this new Middle East — the peace agreements between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, and between Israel and Bahrain — and a whole new level of secret security cooperation between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which will likely flower into more formal relations soon. (Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel reportedly visited Saudi Arabia last week.)In effect, Trump forced Israel and the key Sunni Arab states to become less reliant on the United States and to think about how they must cooperate among themselves over new threats — like Iran — rather than fighting over old causes — like Palestine. This may enable America to secure its interests in the region with much less blood and treasure of its own. It could be Trump’s most significant foreign policy achievement.But a key result is that as Biden considers reopening negotiations to revive the Iran nuclear deal — which Trump abandoned in 2018 — he can expect to find Israel, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates operating as a loose anti-Iran coalition. This will almost certainly complicate things for Biden, owing to the second huge fallout from the Iranian attack on Abqaiq: The impact it had on Israel.After Trump scrapped the nuclear deal, Iran abandoned its commitments to restrict its enrichment of uranium that could be used for a nuclear bomb. But since Biden’s election, Iran has said it would “automatically” return to its nuclear commitments if Biden lifts the crippling sanctions imposed by Trump. Only after those sanctions are lifted, said Tehran, might it discuss regional issues, like curbs on Iran’s precision missile exports and capabilities.This is where the problems will start for Biden. Yes, Israel and the Sunni Arab states want to make sure that Iran can never develop a nuclear weapon. But some Israeli military experts will tell you today that the prospect of Iran having a nuke is not what keeps them up at night — because they don’t see Tehran using it. That would be suicide and Iran’s clerical leaders are not suicidal.They are, though, homicidal.And Iran’s new preferred weapons for homicide are the precision-guided missiles, that it used on Saudi Arabia and that it keeps trying to export to its proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iraq, which pose an immediate homicidal threat to Israel, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iraq and U.S. forces in the region. (Iran has a network of factories manufacturing its own precision-guided missiles.)If Biden tries to just resume the Iran nuclear deal as it was — and gives up the leverage of extreme economic sanctions on Iran, before reaching some understanding on its export of precision-guided missiles — I suspect that he’ll meet a lot of resistance from Israel, the U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia.Why? It’s all in the word “precision.” In the 2006 war in Lebanon, Iran’s proxy militia, Hezbollah, had to fire some 20 dumb, unguided, surface-to-surface rockets of limited range in the hope of damaging a single Israeli target. With precision-guided missiles manufactured in Iran, Hezbollah — in theory — just needs to fire one rocket each at 20 different targets in Israel with a high probability of damaging each one. We’re talking about Israel’s nuclear plant, airport, ports, power plants, high-tech factories and military bases.That is why Israel has been fighting a shadow war with Iran for the past five years to prevent Tehran from reaching its goal of virtually encircling Israel with proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Gaza, all armed with precision-guided missiles. The Saudis have been trying to do the same versus Iran’s proxies in Yemen, who have fired on its airports. These missiles are so much more lethal.“Think of the difference in versatility between dumb phones and smartphones,’’ observed Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment. “For the past two decades we have been consumed by preventing Iran’s big weapon, but it is the thousands of small smart weapons Iran has been proliferating that have become the real and immediate threat to its neighbors.’’That is why Israel and its Gulf Arab allies are not going to want to see the United States give up its leverage on Iran to curb its nuclear program before it also uses that leverage — all those oil sanctions — to secure some commitment to end Iran’s export of these missiles.And that is going to be very, very difficult to negotiate.So, if you were planning a party to celebrate the restoration of the Iran-U. S. nuclear deal soon after Biden’s inauguration, keep the champagne in the fridge. It’s complicated.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More