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    Senate Control Hinges on Neck-and-Neck Races, Times/Siena Poll Finds

    The contests are close in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Many voters want Republicans to flip the Senate, but prefer the Democrat in their state.Control of the Senate rests on a knife’s edge, according to new polls by The New York Times and Siena College, with Republican challengers in Nevada and Georgia neck-and-neck with Democratic incumbents, and the Democratic candidate in Pennsylvania clinging to what appears to be a tenuous advantage.The bright spot for Democrats in the four key states polled was in Arizona, where Senator Mark Kelly is holding a small but steady lead over his Republican challenger, Blake Masters.The results indicate a deeply volatile and unpredictable Senate contest: More people across three of the states surveyed said they wanted Republicans to gain control of the Senate, but they preferred the individual Democratic candidates in their states — a sign that Republicans may be hampered by the shortcomings of their nominees.Midterm elections are typically referendums on the party in power, and Democrats must defy decades of that political history to win control of the Senate, an outcome that has not completely slipped out of the party’s grasp according to the findings of the Times/Siena surveys. Democrats control the 50-50 Senate with Vice President Kamala Harris as the tiebreaking vote. To gain the majority, Republicans need to gain just one seat.Senate Races in Four StatesIf this November’s election for U.S. Senate were held today, which candidate would you be more likely to vote for? More

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    The 2022 Race for the House, in Four Districts, and Four Polls

    President Biden is unpopular everywhere. Economic concerns are mounting. Abortion rights are popular but social issues are more often secondary.A new series of House polls by The New York Times and Siena College across four archetypal swing districts offers fresh evidence that Republicans are poised to retake Congress this fall as the party dominated among voters who care most about the economy.Democrats continue to show resilience in places where abortion is still high on the minds of voters, and where popular incumbents are on the ballot. Indeed, the Democrats were still tied or ahead in all four districts — three of which were carried by Mr. Biden in 2020. But the party’s slim majority — control could flip if just five seats change hands — demands that it essentially run the table everywhere, at a moment when the economy has emerged as the driving issue in all but the country’s wealthier enclaves.The poll results in the four districts — an upscale suburb in Kansas, the old industrial heartland of Pennsylvania, a fast-growing part of Las Vegas and a sprawling district along New Mexico’s southern border — offer deeper insights beyond the traditional Republican and Democratic divide in the race for Congress. They show how the midterm races are being shaped by larger and at times surprising forces that reflect the country’s ethnic, economic and educational realignment.“The economy thing affects everyone while the social thing affects a minority,” said Victor Negron, a 30-year-old blackjack dealer who lives in Henderson, Nev., and who was planning to vote for the Republican vying to flip the seat from a Democratic incumbent. “If everyone’s doing good, then who cares what else everyone else is doing.”The Four Districts Polled More

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    Campaign Press Aides Move From the Shadows to Social Media Stardom

    MINDEN, Nev. — As Adam Laxalt, the Republican candidate for Senate in Nevada, ambled along a throng of Trump supporters at a recent rally and posed for pictures, it was his campaign’s communications director, Courtney Holland, who was really working the crowd.With an iPhone in her left hand, Ms. Holland used her right one to whip up more enthusiasm from the red-capped Republicans gathered behind her boss. As the crowd took the cue, Ms. Holland framed her shot and blasted the footage out onto the campaign’s various social media channels — as well as her own.With more than 100,000 followers on Twitter and nearly 70,000 others on Instagram, Ms. Holland reflects a new breed of campaign aides — those whose online profiles more closely resemble social media influencers than traditional behind-the-scenes press operatives.The shift seizes on the transformation in how American voters receive information about their candidates, and is changing the way campaign press shops function. Both parties are increasingly using social media to build loyalty to a particular political brand, and targeting critics and journalists to energize supporters and drive online contributions. Instead of drafting political positions for their candidates, these staff members take to social media to make their own statements.Working her first political campaign, Ms. Holland has shown little interest in dealing with mainstream reporters to shape stories about Nevada’s closely watched Senate race — and she didn’t respond to a request for comment for this article. She has used her Twitter account, however, to repeatedly post negative information about Hunter Biden, President Biden’s son, and criticize Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, the Democratic incumbent in the race, for not participating in more TV interviews.Ms. Holland’s posts on Instagram — posing with fellow conservatives or modeling Republican merchandise — have regularly drawn hundreds or even thousands of likes. Several of her memes attacking Mr. Biden have been viewed more than 100,000 times.“Influencers are being subsumed into the political apparatus on the right and the left,” said Samuel C. Woolley, who has studied social media and politics as the project director of the propaganda research team at the University of Texas at Austin. “There has been a blurring of the line between influencers and their positions as staffers that has historically been behind the camera.”The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsElection Day is Tuesday, Nov. 8.Bracing for a Red Wave: Republicans were already favored to flip the House. Now they are looking to run up the score by vying for seats in deep-blue states.Pennsylvania Senate Race: Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and Mehmet Oz clashed in one of the most closely watched debates of the midterm campaign. Here are five takeaways.Polling Analysis: If these poll results keep up, everything from a Democratic hold in the Senate and a narrow House majority to a total G.O.P. rout becomes imaginable, writes Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst.Strategy Change: In the final stretch before the elections, some Democrats are pushing for a new message that acknowledges the economic uncertainty troubling the electorate.In Florida, Christina Pushaw had about 2,000 Twitter followers before Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed her as his press secretary in May 2021. She now has more than 220,000 followers — far more than Lt. Gov Jeanette Nuñez and nearly as many as Casey DeSantis, Florida’s first lady.Ms. Pushaw built her following with an aggressive social media persona that sometimes includes five or six dozen postings a day, often attacking Democrats and the mainstream media. She has called the president a “seemingly senile 79-year-old aspiring dictator” and suggested that a neo-Nazi rally in Orlando had been staged by Democrats, although she later deleted that tweet.Last summer, Twitter locked her account for 12 hours for violating rules on “abusive behavior” after The Associated Press said her conduct led to a reporter receiving threats and other online abuse.Ms. Pushaw, who is now the DeSantis campaign’s rapid response director, has recently urged her fellow Republicans to stop engaging at all with the mainstream media, which she often refers to as “liberal,” “corporate” or “legacy media.”“My working theory is that if ALL conservatives simply stop talking to them, the legacy media will lose any shred of credibility or interest to Americans who follow politics,” Ms. Pushaw wrote in August.In Florida, Christina Pushaw had about 2,000 Twitter followers before Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed her as his press secretary in May 2021.Paul Hennessy/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty ImagesMs. Pushaw didn’t respond to a request for comment. But Mr. DeSantis has defended his aide, saying he views the criticism of her as a sign of her success.“You can try to smear me or anyone in my administration all you want to,” he told reporters in June. “All that’s going to do is embolden us to continue moving forward for the people of Florida.”The pugnacity from Ms. Pushaw and other Republicans has been deeply influenced by former President Donald J. Trump, whose combative political style has been defined by both his aggressiveness on social media and his sparring with the media. Mr. Trump bestowed his top social media aide in the White House, Dan Scavino, with the title of “assistant to the president,” while former President Barack Obama’s digital director, Jason Goldman, was a deputy assistant.Still, Mr. Obama and his team helped pave the way for turning press teams into content creators. The Obama White House regularly produced photos and videos packaged specifically for direct consumption among their own followers on social media.More recently, some of the 2020 Democratic presidential campaigns were loosely linked to armies of fanatical social media followers who teamed up to bully critics, fellow Democrats and reporters.During that race, a relentless group of superfans for Vice President Kamala Harris, known as #KHive, targeted Senator Bernie Sanders, her rival in that campaign, and numerous reporters.Reecie Colbert, one of the group’s more outspoken members, issued a warning during the campaign to Ms. Harris’s critics in a podcast about the group, saying, “I wanted them to know I will stomp a hole in you if you come for Kamala.” She later told The Los Angeles Times that she was speaking for herself, not the group.Ms. Harris has thanked KHive for its support of her on Twitter, and her husband, Doug Emhoff, regularly interacts with them.Lis Smith, a Democratic strategist, has long maintained an active social media profile. In 2012, when she was working on Mr. Obama’s re-election campaign as the rapid response director, Twitter temporarily locked her profile after she sent so many tweets during a presidential debate that she set off an internal alarm at the company designed to identify bots.But Ms. Smith warned that campaigns can go too far in letting their social media presence define them.“Social media is an increasingly big part of the job, but not in a good way,” she said. “Candidates who use social media in an authentic way can reinforce their strengths. But if you let Twitter supplant the hard work of dealing with reporters, you’re essentially breaking down a legitimate line of communications with the public.”Ryan James Girdusky, a conservative activist with over 110,000 followers on Twitter, said having staff members whose agility on social media could drive attention to a candidate’s message could be a significant advantage during a campaign.“When you have a new social media account, you have to build followers,” said Mr. Girdusky, a co-author of the book, “They’re Not Listening: How the Elites Created the National Populist Revolution.”“When you’re behind the eight ball, it’s definitely a major plus to have people who are known in the conservative movement and bring that level of credibility,” he added. More

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    ‘I just care about change’: Nevada’s Latinos on their cost-of-living fears

    ‘I just care about change’: Nevada’s Latinos on their cost-of-living fears Nevada has an acute shortage of affordable housing – but do Republicans or Democrats have practical answers to curb one of America’s most pressing issues?Claudia Lopez, 39, is worried for her children.As her curly haired seven-year-old daughter bounced around a play area inside El Mercado, a shopping center within the Boulevard Mall in Las Vegas where the smell of arepas and tacos hovers over the shops, Lopez soaked in her day off from knocking on doors and talking to residents about the upcoming election.Latino activists have been changing Arizona politics. The midterms are their biggest challenge yetRead moreFor much of her life, Lopez, whose parents emigrated from Mexico to California, where she was born, didn’t care for politics. This year, that changed: since Lopez moved to Las Vegas seven years ago, rents have rocketed. In the first quarter of 2022, the Nevada State Apartment Association found that rent had soared, on average, more than 20% compared to the same period last year. That growth has since slowed, but the self-employed house cleaner worries about her children’s future: their safety, their schools, their shelter.“I don’t care about Democrats or Republicans,” Lopez says. “I care about change. I just want change for the better. Everything’s getting worse. You see little kids like, ‘Are they going to live to my age?’”In Nevada, the political stakes of this election are high. Latino voters are projected to account for one for every five potential voters in November, turning the state into a microcosm of the national influence voters of color will have on the election. While Nevada voted Democrat in the last election, its contests were won by slim margins. And as a voting bloc, Latinos are not monolithic: what they care about ranges from immigration to the economy and depends on where throughout the country they live.An emerging, central, and practical concern for this group, however, rests in the rising costs of living – especially housing. The state has the steepest affordable housing shortage in the country. For every 100 renters in Nevada, there are just 18 affordable homes available to extremely low-income households, according to the National Low Income Housing Coalition. By comparison, Mississippi, which has the highest poverty rate in the country, has 58 homes available for every 100 renters.“It’s a perfect storm,” said Melissa Morales, founder of Somos Votantes, a non-profit focused on encouraging Latino voter participation. “You have the state that was hardest hit by unemployment and its economy was the hardest hit by the pandemic. You have the first Latina US senator ever in American history that’s up for re-election.”“For Latino voters, they are less interested in a blame game and much more interested in solutions,” she added. “When they’re placing the economy and these sorts of costs that are at the top of their list, they are really looking at which party is providing hard solutions to these issues.”In the governor’s race, the Democratic incumbent Steve Sisolak, who approved $500m in federal funds from the American Rescue Plan toward developing housing, plans on working with state lawmakers to curtail corporations from buying properties, reform evictions and impose rent control. He extended an eviction moratorium through last May in the midst of the pandemic.But on his website, his opponent Republican Joe Lombardo slammed Sisolak’s administration as a “roadblock for affordable housing”, stating that Lombardo would streamline permitting and licensing for housing.Despite political posturing, there’s concern about whether Latino voters will show up at all. That presents a vexing question for organizers attempting to cut past political rhetoric to capture Latino voters’ attention: who has the practical answers to curb America’s most pressing issues: the rising cost of living? And what will convince them that politicians will actually make good on these promises?Advocacy groups have taken to the pavement to try and bridge any voter education gaps.Morales says that of their canvassing operations in Nevada, Arizona and Michigan, those in Nevada spoke the most about the rising costs of housing and healthcare.Morales serves as president of Somos PAC, which has supported Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, the first Latina elected to the US Senate, who is vying for re-election against former Nevada attorney general and Republican Adam Laxalt. While Cortez Masto’s website lauds her work to “expand affordable housing” and “combat housing discrimination”, Laxalt’s makes no mention of housing as an issue, focusing instead on the economy, crime, immigration and other issues.The Culinary Workers Union, whose membership of 60,000 hospitality workers is mostly made up of people of color, are also engaging in what they hope will be their largest canvassing operation in history, dispatching at least 350 canvassers, with more closer to election day, to neighborhoods six days a week.With hopes of reaching 1 million households, the union’s canvassers’ focus on calling for blocking rent hikes and curtailing the cost of living, responding to a national crisis that upended the lives of voters of color in the area.On a recent trip to a quiet neighborhood in north Las Vegas, where roughly four in 10 Latinos live, Miguel Regalado trudged from door to door under the sweltering desert heat.A lead canvasser who has embarked on multiple campaigns since 2016, Regalado, like hundreds of others, had taken a leave of absence from his job to talk with voters. So did Rocelia Mendoza and Marcos Rivera, who joined him to stroll through the neighborhood full of nearly identical houses, with white exteriors and red roofs, Halloween decorations on their front yards.Regalado, a utility porter at The D Casino, and Mendoza, a dining bus person at the Wynn who worked her fourth campaign since 2017, checked their tablets for the list of addresses. When knocks went unanswered, they affixed literature and endorsement guides to people’s doors.Those who answered were largely Black and Latino residents, with Regalado and Mendoza relating to some in Spanish. They often framed their pitches around signing a petition calling for “neighborhood stability” – a collection of proposals to stop rent increases in Clark and Washoe counties, where Las Vegas and Reno are – and to support candidates, largely Democrats, who have signed on to support the cause. Those two cities represent battlegrounds for Republicans and Democrats alike as Republicans managed to persuade more Latino voters in Las Vegas since 2020 but lost ground with them in Reno.David Damore, chair of the political science department at the University of Nevada at Las Vegas, said that the door-knocking operations were key to encouraging turnout from Latino voters. Without door-knocking from the union, whose membership is majority people of color, “Nevada would not have shifted from red to blue,” Damore wrote in an email. “There are hard-fought wins on the line this cycle.”Ted Pappageorge, secretary-treasurer for the Culinary Workers Union, told the Guardian that working-class Nevada residents across racial and ethnic backgrounds have expressed concern to members about rent, the cost of inflation and rising healthcare costs.“Our members can’t afford homes like they used to,” Pappageorge, who spent a decade as the union’s president, says. “We’re finding that folks are concerned, and they want to know what to do. And we have a plan to win.”The canvassers themselves are dealing with the housing constraints. Before the pandemic, Regalado tried to buy a house. He made offers and felt qualified. “I got outbid every time I did it,” Regalado says. He worried about what he had heard from community members about companies that have bought properties in Las Vegas as investments and the pressure that puts on people’s lives.“The price-gouging is making it harder for everyone to buy a house and find a place to live. They are buying up the rentals and jacking up all the prices at the same time, making it harder and harder for the community to have a decent place to live. We’ve seen eviction notices in apartment complexes, too, because of rents going up.”Marcos Rivera, who was canvassing for the first time, noted that he too wanted to buy a house but was forced to rent an apartment. His family’s rent rose more than 40 percent. He worried about landlords lobbying to raise rents mid-year.“If we don’t do something about it, it’s going to continue to grow. It’s absolutely insane,” Rivera says. “We should just have one job to support our family and our rent. We shouldn’t have to have two jobs to have a decent living.”In its latest canvassing operation announcement, the union noted that its goal of 1 million door knocks in Reno and Las Vegas would reach “more than half of the Black and Latinx voters and more than a third of the Asian American Pacific Islander voters in Nevada”.While her daughter fiddled with food at El Mercado, Lopez, who doesn’t support abortion rights, recounted how since the US supreme court overturned Roe v Wade, questioned what other constitutional rights would be taken away from women like her and her daughter.Underpinning that was the anxiety that she would be unable to provide the life her parents had for her, that as the costs of living in America, she would be unable to buy a home, even as her parents owned two houses.“As a Hispanic woman, I would love to say that we’re able to do what my parents came out to do,” Lopez says. “It’s crazy how my parents came here illegally. They own two houses. And I was born here and I’m not able to afford a house because they’re going up sky-high.”Lopez, who canvasses for the Culinary Workers Union, registered herself and her family to vote for the first time. She understood those she had encountered who were disenchanted with politics, who faced the evictions and instability from unaffordable living situations as their jobs were upended by the pandemic. But she is determined to make sure they have a say in the state’s political future.“Our voice does count,” Lopez told the Guardian when asked about the collective power of Latino voters. “We can make a change.”TopicsNevadaUS politicsUS midterm elections 2022RepublicansDemocratsRacenewsReuse this content More

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    Democratic Secretary of State Candidates Struggle Against Election Deniers

    LAS VEGAS — Ted Pappageorge, the head of Culinary Union Local 226, whipped up the crowd of canvassers into a frenzy on a recent Monday morning, earning him “sí, se puede!” chants. But before he sent the canvassers out to knock on doors for Cisco Aguilar, the Democratic candidate of secretary of state, he had a question.“Does anybody know what the secretary of state does in the state of Nevada?” Mr. Pappageorge asked. A few murmured “voting” and a half dozen raised their hands. The buzzing quieted, before Mr. Pappageorge offered his take: The office oversees the election and “makes sure it doesn’t get stolen by any of these MAGA extreme Republicans.” The cheering returned.Such is the plight of many Democratic candidates for secretary of state, an office that has long lived in political obscurity and rarely inspired great passions among voters. But in 2022, after secretaries of state helped thwart Donald J. Trump’s attempt to overturn his defeat, races for the post have taken on new urgency. Facing off against Republican candidates who spread lies about the 2020 election, Democrats have poured tens of millions into the contests, casting them as battles for the future of American democracy.If only they could get voters to see it that way. Instead, voters remain focused on rising inflation, economic woes, education and other issues that are outside the purview of the official duties of a secretary of state. And while a vast majority of Americans view democracy as under threat, a striking few see it as a top issue, according to a recent New York Times/Siena College poll.Democrats are facing other challenges. Many of the candidates are relative unknowns, leaving their futures heavily dependent on what voters think of their party or the party’s high-profile candidates for Senate or governor.The Democrats’ positions — promoting early voting options, including mail voting and protecting poll workers — are not headline-making policies. But Republicans’ denials of the 2020 election, murky statements about upholding future results or pledges to restrict voting to a single day grab the attention of both supporters and detractors.Voting at the Doolittle Community Center in Las Vegas during the state primary in June. Secretaries of state oversee elections.Bridget Bennett for The New York TimesSix of these election-denying candidates for secretary of state are on the ballot in November; one, Diego Morales in Indiana, appears positioned to win in the deeply red state, and several are locked in tight battles. That includes states like Arizona, Michigan and Nevada, presidential battlegrounds where a single election official’s refusal to certify the result could set off a constitutional crisis.As he campaigns, Mr. Aguilar, a 45-year-old lawyer, former board member of the Nevada Athletic Commission and onetime aide to Senator Harry Reid, has sought to tie voters’ top-tier issues to elections.“If I lose this race, your potential to have a say in your kid’s future education is on the line,” Mr. Aguilar said in an interview. “Because the way we change it is electing people that believe in public education.”The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsBoth parties are making their final pitches ahead of the Nov. 8 election.Where the Election Stands: As Republicans appear to be gaining an edge with swing voters in the final weeks of the contest for control of Congress, here’s a look at the state of the races for the House and Senate.Biden’s Low Profile: President Biden’s decision not to attend big campaign rallies reflects a low approval rating that makes him unwelcome in some congressional districts and states.What Young Voters Think: Twelve Americans under 30, all living in swing states, told The Times about their political priorities, ranging from the highly personal to the universal.In Minnesota: The race for attorney general in the light-blue state offers a pure test of which issue is likely to be more politically decisive: abortion rights or crime.“That opportunity to vote goes away because my opponent wants to go back to a single day of voting,” he added. “Which in this town, in a 24/7 economy, somebody either works that shift or is working multiple jobs.”Mr. Aguilar’s opponent, Jim Marchant, is the organizer of the America First Secretary of State Coalition, a group of hard-right candidates who have called for eliminating mail voting, using only paper ballots, returning to a single day of voting and giving partisan poll watchers “unfettered access.” It’s a platform that has alarmed election experts and even left some Republicans worried that the group’s members could soon be in a position to overturn or tilt the scales of an election.Last week, Mr. Marchant seemed to indicate that was part of the plan.Jim Marchant, the Republican nominee for secretary of state, is the organizer of the America First Secretary of State Coalition, a group of candidates who say, falsely, that the 2020 election was stolen from Donald J. Trump.Bridget Bennett for The New York Times“I’ve been working since Nov. 4, 2020, to expose what happened. And what I found out is horrifying. And when I’m secretary of state of Nevada, we’re going to fix it,” Mr. Marchant said, referring to the 2020 election during a rally onstage with Mr. Trump. “And when my coalition of secretary of state candidates around the country get elected, we’re going to fix the whole country and President Trump is going to be president again in 2024.”It was secretaries of state — both Republican and Democratic — who played a central role in blocking Mr. Trump’s attempt to subvert the 2020 election. Seeing those losses, key allies of Mr. Trump soon began lining up to run for the office. Mr. Marchant has said that a close ally of Mr. Trump approached him in the aftermath of that election and suggested he run. (Voter fraud is rare, and there was no evidence that fraud determined the 2020 election.).css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.More than a dozen candidates joined the America First Coalition, with six advancing to secure Republican nominations, including Mark Finchem in Arizona, Kristina Karamo in Michigan and Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania. (Mr. Mastriano is the candidate for governor in Pennsylvania, but the governor there appoints the secretary of state.)Though these officials’ authority varies by state, nearly all have significant oversight in the voting process — from registration to certification.In Nevada, the secretary of state could decide to invalidate all election machines, a plan Mr. Marchant has spoken favorably about, forcing a hand-counted vote that would be riddled with errors and would most likely take days to tabulate.The secretary also is required to be present for the canvassing of the votes by the justices of the state Supreme Court. And in Nevada, as in many states, the office is in charge of audits, as well as assisting in investigations into potential claims of voter fraud.Aside from these powers, secretaries of state have also served as an influential counter to false claims of fraud, misinformation and disinformation about American elections.“One of my biggest concerns with someone like Jim Marchant in that role is that they can use that platform to do exactly the opposite, and exacerbate or spread disinformation,” said Ben Berwick, a counsel at Protect Democracy, a nonpartisan organization focused on election issues.“The idea of putting these people in charge of our elections is nuts,” Mr. Berwick said. “Many of these candidates have said that they would not have certified the 2020 election, and there is good reason to believe they will use their power to try to manipulate the results if their preferred candidate doesn’t win in 2024.”Mr. Aguilar speaking at an Indigenous People’s Day event at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.Bridget Bennett for The New York TimesMr. Marchant, his campaign manager, his press officer and the head of the state Republican Party did not respond to repeated requests for comment, made in person and in phone calls, text messages and emails.The Republican State Leadership Committee, which is the campaign arm of the Republican National Committee responsible for secretary of state races (as well as state legislatures and lieutenant governor races), is not spending money on Mr. Marchant’s bid or any of the other election-denying candidates. The committee said it was too badly outspent by Democrats.“We simply cannot match what Democrats are spending on these races and we need to prioritize protecting our incumbents,” said Andrew Romeo, a committee spokesman.Though the committee is contributing to multiple incumbent secretaries of state, the only incumbent receiving advertising support from it is Brad Raffensperger, the Republican secretary of state in Georgia who rebuffed requests by Mr. Trump to help him overturn the 2020 election there. Mr. Raffensperger has been critical of those who continue to make false claims about the 2020 election.Indeed, Republicans are not even close to competing with Democrats and allied groups, such as iVote and End Citizens United, on TV ads, currently being outspent by a 57-to-1 margin, according to AdImpact, an ad-tracking firm. Democrats have spent more than $40.6 million on broadcast television ads since July in six battleground states. Republicans have spent just $700,000, with more than $500,000 of that coming from Raffensperger’s campaign.Mr. Marchant has run a nearly invisible campaign. His website and social media accounts have not listed an event in the state in months; the only records of his events have been at local Republican fund-raisers. His campaign reported raising just $89,000 in the third quarter, compared with $1.1 million for Mr. Aguilar.He has not been given a speaking slot at an event with either Republican candidate running for Senate or governor since the primary elections in July; and they have been loath to mention his name while campaigning.Yet polls show Mr. Marchant with a lead on Mr. Aguilar, a reality some political experts in the state say reflects the race’s low visibility and broader political trends, which show Republicans with an edge in Nevada.Mr. Aguilar has been campaigning wherever he can, including an interview this month with a Latino radio station in Las Vegas.Bridget Bennett for The New York TimesMr. Aguilar, a first-time candidate, has been campaigning steadily, knocking doors and finding a space in events around the state wherever he can. This month, he attended an Indigenous people’s event at the base of the “Welcome to Las Vegas” sign, then shuttled over to a union hall before crossing the Las Vegas Strip for a small-business round table at the Four Seasons, where he dined with the president of the Nevada Chamber of Commerce.As he courts voters, Mr. Aguilar at times talks about his more memorable credentials. As a member of the Nevada Athletic Commission, he helped bring Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather Jr. to fight in Las Vegas in 2015. He’s close to the former tennis star Andre Agassi, a Las Vegas native, and worked as general counsel for the Andre Agassi Foundation for Education.But he spends most of his precious time talking to voters sounding almost like a civics teacher. “The secretary of state has an important role in our election process,” he told a crowd at another Indigenous people’s event at University of Nevada, Las Vegas. “The secretary of state is the regulator of elections.” More

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    Ballot Measures in Swing States Could Have Sizable Impact on 2024 Voting

    While the midterm elections in November will decide control of Congress and some governors’ offices, there are other far-reaching issues at stake. Among them: the fate of voter ID rules, early voting expansion and ranked-choice voting.Ballot measures on these issues will appear in several battleground states, where most of the attention has been on marquee races, with a blizzard of campaign ads dominating the airwaves.But the outcome of those measures could weigh significantly on the 2024 presidential election, as Republicans and Democrats haggle over the guardrails of voting.Here is a roundup of ballot measures facing voters across the United States:ArizonaUnder a ballot measure embraced by Republicans, voters would be required to present photo identification when casting ballots in person. If it passes, the state would no longer accept two nonphoto forms of identification — such as a motor vehicle registration and a utility bill — in place of a government-issued ID card or a passport.The measure, which has been criticized by Democrats and voting rights advocates, would also create new requirements for voting by mail. Voters would be required to write their birth date and either a state-issued identification number or the last four digits of their Social Security number on an early ballot affidavit.MichiganA proposed constitutional amendment would create a permanent nine-day period of early in-person voting at polling sites, as well as an expansion of existing options for voters to visit clerks’ offices and other local election offices to cast early ballots.The measure, which was backed by a voting rights coalition and survived a wording-related challenge, with the Michigan Supreme Court weighing in, would also allow voters who are unable to present ID at the polls to sign an affidavit attesting to their identity.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsWith the primaries over, both parties are shifting their focus to the general election on Nov. 8.The Final Stretch: With less than one month until Election Day, Republicans remain favored to take over the House, but momentum in the pitched battle for the Senate has seesawed back and forth.A Surprising Battleground: New York has emerged from a haywire redistricting cycle as perhaps the most consequential congressional battleground in the country. For Democrats, the uncertainty is particularly jarring.Arizona’s Governor’s Race: Democrats are openly expressing their alarm that Katie Hobbs, the party’s nominee for governor in the state, is fumbling a chance to defeat Kari Lake in one of the most closely watched races.Herschel Walker: The Republican Senate nominee in Georgia reportedly paid for an ex-girlfriend’s abortion, but members of his party have learned to tolerate his behavior.Michigan would also be required to pay for drop boxes and return postage for absentee ballots, in addition to mail expenses associated with applications.To prevent partisan groups from subverting election results, as supporters of former President Donald J. Trump tried to do in 2020 in Michigan when they put forward a slate of fake electors, canvassing boards in the state would be required to certify results based only on the official record of votes cast.NevadaNevada voters will decide whether to adopt ranked-choice voting for the general election and to overhaul the state’s primary system.Under a proposed constitutional amendment, primaries for statewide and federal offices, but not for president, would be open to all voters, with the top five vote-getters advancing to the general election. The law currently stipulates that voters must be registered as Democrats or Republicans in order to participate in their parties’ primariesIf approved in November, the measure would be placed on the ballot again in 2024 for voters to decide. The earliest that the changes could take effect would be in 2025.In a ranked-choice system during the general election, voters list candidates in order of preference. If no candidate receives a majority, officials would eliminate the last-place finisher and reallocate his or her supporters’ votes to their second choices until one candidate has at least 50 percent of the votes.Alaska recently adopted ranked-choice voting, and some Republicans blamed that system for the defeat of Sarah Palin, a former governor and the 2008 Republican vice-presidential nominee, in a special House election in August.New York, Maine and Utah also have some form of ranked-choice voting, as do dozens of American cities.OhioCities and towns in Ohio would be barred from allowing non-U.S. citizens to vote in state and local elections under a constitutional amendment that seeks to rein in the home rule authority of municipalities.Opponents contend that federal law already bars noncitizens from voting in federal elections. But the measure’s supporters say that an explicit prohibition is needed at the state level, despite instances of voter fraud proving to be rare.The issue arose after voters in Yellow Springs, Ohio, a small village east of Dayton, voted in 2019 to allow noncitizens to vote for local offices. None have registered since then, though, according to The Columbus Dispatch.NebraskaEmulating other red states, Nebraska could require voters to present photo ID at the polls under a constitutional amendment supported by Gov. Pete Ricketts, a term-limited Republican who is leaving office in January. Critics say the rule change would disenfranchise voters.ConnecticutConnecticut is one of a handful of states that do not offer early in-person voting, but a proposed constitutional amendment could change that.The measure directs the Legislature to create a mechanism for early voting, which would be separate from accepting absentee ballots before Election Day. The timing and details would be decided by lawmakers, who could enact the changes by the 2024 election. More

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    There is a source of worry for the Democrats coming from the west of the country – Nevada. A state previously considered pretty blue is showing some signs of turning red, and Republicans are hoping to pounce.
    This week, Jonathan Freedland speaks to Jon Ralston of the Nevada Independent about why Nevada could prove fatal to the Democrats if it flips red in November

    How to listen to podcasts: everything you need to know

    Archive: CSPAN, NBC, Fox News Listen to Jonathan speaking to Jon Ronson about how Alex Jones became the conspiracy theorist he is today Buy your tickets to the Guardian’s Politics Weekly America Live event at 8pm GMT on 2 November Send your questions and feedback to podcasts@theguardian.com Help support the Guardian by going to theguardian.com/supportpodcasts More

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    Enthusiasm for Trump Fluctuates Among Republicans on Campaign Trail

    MINDEN, Nev. — Surrounded by a half-dozen construction cranes hoisting floodlights, loudspeakers and American flags into the chilly desert twilight, Joe Lombardo stood in front of an attentive audience at a Trump rally and delivered a warm tribute.“We’re here to rally for the Republican ticket, and who’s going to help us?” Mr. Lombardo, the party’s nominee for governor of Nevada, told a crowd on the Minden, Nev., airport tarmac that outnumbered the town’s population of 3,500. “The greatest president, right? Donald J. Trump!”But the praise from Mr. Lombardo, a longtime Clark County sheriff, contrasted sharply with his tepid testimonial of Mr. Trump a week earlier.Seated in a Las Vegas television studio with his hands pressed tightly together in his lap, Mr. Lombardo demurred when asked during his only scheduled debate with Gov. Steve Sisolak, the Democratic incumbent, if Mr. Trump had been a great president.“I wouldn’t use that adjective — I wouldn’t say great,” Mr. Lombardo answered. “He was a sound president.”Heading into the final weeks of the midterm campaigns, Republican candidates locked in close races, as Mr. Lombardo is, have twisted themselves into political contortions as they puzzle out how to handle their party’s most powerful figure — and its most controversial — while toggling between the debate stage and the rally stage.At a rally last week in Nevada, Joe Lombardo referred to Donald J. Trump as “the greatest president.” But during a debate, when asked, he said “he was a sound president.”Bridget Bennett for The New York TimesThe challenge confronting Republican contenders across the country is how to win over moderate and independent swing voters without alienating the party’s base of Trump loyalists — or the former president himself. Mr. Trump often views politics in deeply personal terms and is known to respond in kind to acts of defiance, even when retribution could jeopardize an election for his party.Democrats are similarly trapped in an awkward dance with President Biden, whose low approval ratings have forced candidates to keep him at an arm’s distance. But polls show that Mr. Biden’s political brand is not as polarizing as Mr. Trump’s. To like Mr. Trump is to love him, while disapproval is often on par with disdain.In a New York Times/Siena College poll last month, more than half of the voters who said they viewed Mr. Trump favorably said they viewed him very favorably, while four out of five who had unfavorable opinions of the former president said they viewed him very unfavorably.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsWith the primaries over, both parties are shifting their focus to the general election on Nov. 8.The Final Stretch: With less than one month until Election Day, Republicans remain favored to take over the House, but momentum in the pitched battle for the Senate has seesawed back and forth.A Surprising Battleground: New York has emerged from a haywire redistricting cycle as perhaps the most consequential congressional battleground in the country. For Democrats, the uncertainty is particularly jarring.Pennsylvania Governor’s Race: Attacks by Doug Mastriano, the G.O.P. nominee, on the Jewish school where Josh Shapiro, the Democratic candidate, sends his children have set off an outcry about antisemitic signaling.Herschel Walker: The Republican Senate nominee in Georgia reportedly paid for an ex-girlfriend’s abortion, but some conservative Christians have learned to tolerate the behavior of those who advance their cause.Striking the right balance — or not — could decide whether Republicans win control of the Senate and capture several governor’s offices in key battleground states.That calculation is complicated by political terrain that varies by state. A winning Republican coalition for J.D. Vance in the Senate race in Ohio — a state that Mr. Trump easily won twice — will most likely require a smaller proportion of independent voters than statewide contests in Nevada, which Mr. Trump narrowly lost twice, political strategists said.In North Carolina, Representative Ted Budd emerged from a crowded Republican Senate primary on the strength of an endorsement from the former president. Mr. Budd carried out a multimillion-dollar advertising blitz that prominently featured Mr. Trump’s backing, but he held few public events and skipped all four Republican primary debates..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.But while Mr. Trump won North Carolina twice, his victory two years ago was by fewer than 75,000 votes out of 5.5 million ballots cast.To like Mr. Trump is to love him, while disapproval is often on par with disdain.Bridget Bennett for The New York TimesAt a rally on Sept. 23 in Wilmington, N.C., Mr. Trump’s first event in the state during the general election, Mr. Budd teased a potential third Trump presidential campaign in 2024.“He made America great, and who knows, folks?” Mr. Budd said to thousands of Trump supporters. “He might just do it again.”But when Mr. Budd was asked at his debate on Friday with Cheri Beasley, the Democratic nominee for Senate, whether he wanted Mr. Trump to open another campaign for the White House, he would not say.“I’m going to exclusively focus on this one right now,” Mr. Budd said of his own race. “We have 32 days on this one. Let’s get on the other side of this and let’s have that conversation then.”Mr. Budd also hedged on his support for Mr. Trump’s false claims that the 2020 presidential election was stolen. Mr. Budd voted to overturn the results after a mob of Trump supporters rioted in the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and signed a letter after the election urging the Justice Department to investigate allegations of voter fraud and other irregularities.In late 2020, Mr. Budd also spread bogus claims that voting machines used in some states came from a company with ties to the liberal billionaire George Soros, according to text messages obtained by CNN that Mr. Budd sent to Mark Meadows, then the White House chief of staff.But during the Friday debate, Mr. Budd said he had voted to overturn the 2020 election in order to “inspire more debate.” Blake Masters won the Republican nomination for Senate in Arizona with the help of Mr. Trump’s endorsement.Rebecca Noble for The New York Times“Debate is healthy for democracy,” Mr. Budd added, without explaining what needed to be debated at the time of the vote. At that point, the Trump campaign had made several unsuccessful court challenges and each state’s Electoral College delegation had already met and cast its ballots.Similarly, in Arizona, Blake Masters won the Republican nomination for Senate with the help of Mr. Trump’s endorsement, which arrived months after Mr. Masters recorded a social media video in which he looked directly into the camera to tell viewers, “I think Trump won in 2020.” At the time, Mr. Trump made clear he was snubbing another Republican candidate who the former president believed had not done enough to support the lie that the election was rigged.But at a debate last week with Senator Mark Kelly, the Democratic incumbent, Mr. Masters agreed that Mr. Biden had been legitimately elected. He said that Mr. Biden had probably won because social media companies suppressed negative news about Hunter Biden, the president’s son.But pressed on whether he thought there had been a problem with the counting of votes in 2020, as Mr. Trump has claimed, Mr. Masters declined.“I haven’t seen evidence of that,” he said.Three days after the debate, Mr. Masters mingled with attendees before a Trump rally in Mesa, Ariz. In a brief interview as he shook hands and posed for pictures, Mr. Masters said he stood by his position on election fraud.Asked which position, Mr. Masters replied, “Both.”“Completely consistent,” he said.Mr. Masters smiled, turned and headed toward the stage where he would soon stand side by side with the former president. More