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      ‘Excited for Trump’: Nevada Republican party holds caucuses days after primary

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      Nevada’s Republican party is hosting caucuses on Thursday, just two days after the state held a non-binding presidential primary.Donald Trump, the only major candidate running in the caucuses, is assured to be anointed victor by the end of the night. Still, supporters turned up to show their support for the former president, joining snaking lines at high schools, country clubs and even a dental practice to vote.Political analysts and the Nevada Republicans themselves were unsure of what sort of turnout to expect tonight, in a race that is essentially decided for Trump. The only other candidate Tuesday night was Ryan Binkley – a little-known pastor and businessman from Texas – will cap off a perplexing primary week in the key, western battleground state.Due to the manoeuvrings of staunch Nevada GOP allies, Trump is essentially guaranteed the state’s 26 delegates at the Republican national convention. After challenging a state law requiring presidential primaries, the party won the right to hold their own caucuses – not run and financed by the state. Candidates could only participate in one or the other, though voters are allowed to participate in both.While voters in the primary were allowed to cast ballots by mail, or early in person, those participating in the caucuses were required to come in person, at specific locations and bring a photo ID. The state’s GOP has said the caucuses are more secure than the primaries, though as voters sardined into a high school in Henderson, Nevada, attendees complained that overwhelmed volunteers were having difficulties managing the mass of voters outside.At the Green Valley high school caucus site in Henderson, Nevada, spirits were high as voters filed over to the registration tables to have their IDs checked. One organizer delivered a PSA: “If you are one of the people who hung up Trump signs all over, I love it – but you have to take them down.” It was against the school’s policy to allow political signs to be posted around campus.Deby Callahan, 71, and her granddaughter Aubrey Bucher, 20, were attending together. Bucher was also trying to gather signatures for a ballot measure to approve a voter ID requirement for future elections. “I’m excited for president Trump,” Callahan said, who like many other voters do not accept Biden won the 2020 election.Ahead of the caucuses that he is guaranteed to win, Trump urged Nevadans who were voting to sign the voter ID petition – which election experts have said could make it more onerous, especially for older people and people of color, to cast ballots. Republicans across the US have been pushing such measures.“If you are showing up today to vote in the GOP Caucus in Nevada, make sure to sign the Petition for VOTER ID that many people will be circulating at Caucus locations,” Trump posted to his Truth Social. “This is a very ‘BIG DEAL.’ Thank you.”As volunteers methodically checked the IDs of caucus attendees, a queue for the sign in table began to grow, wrapping around the school’s entrance.“Look at the turnout,” said Aydin Delara, 65. “Trump is the only reason everyone is here.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionNearly 9,300 Republicans submitted their primary ballots early, by mail or in person, and about 10,400 voted on Tuesday. Confusion about how and whether to vote in the primary, as well as heavy rains, probably affected turnout. Trump, who visited the state last week, encouraged voters to avoid the primary altogether. “Don’t waste your time,” he said at a rally in east Las Vegas. “Waste all of your time on caucus because the primary doesn’t mean anything.”Nevada Republicans have said that their caucuses will be more secure than the primaries, a claim that is roundly disputed by election experts – voter fraud is exceedingly rare. The leaders of the caucus effort include election deniers who have been charged for their roles in trying to overturn the 2020 election results.But the bifurcated process has also caused confusion for voters, many of whom appeared at the polls earlier this week and were surprised to find that Trump wasn’t on the ballot. He still managed to humiliate Nikki Haley, the only major candidate running, who trailed behind a “none of these candidates” option. Trump allies had encouraged voters to show their support for the former president by voicing opposition to Haley.Borrowing a favorite phrase of Trump’s, the former UN ambassador has said the state’s divided election process was “rigged” against her. Haley did not campaign in Nevada, choosing instead to focus on the upcoming elections in South Carolina.Although this election process is legal, the GOP’s manoeuvring has been widely criticised, including by Republicans. Joe Lombardo, the state’s Republican governor, said in October that the duelling contests would be “detrimental to the candidates” and “unacceptable for voters”. Nonetheless, Lombardo said he would be caucusing for Trump. More

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      Nevada primary: Biden focuses on Black and Latino voters as GOP scheme helps Trump

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      The first presidential primary election contest in the western US is underway in Nevada.Although Nevada has backed Democrats in every presidential election since 2008, it recently elected a Republican governor and remains a key swing state where slight changes in turnout could flip outcomes.After Joe Biden secured a victory in South Carolina’s Democratic primary over the weekend, he is looking to build on his momentum in Nevada. More than 154,000 voters submitted early ballots, ahead of election day on Tuesday, 59,000 Republicans and 95,000 Democrats.Both Democrats and Republicans are holding presidential primaries on Tuesday, but the Republican competition will hold little meaning. The state’s GOP, which is led by a recently indicted fake Trump elector, will be allocating its delegates based on a separate caucus it is holding on Thursday, in which Donald Trump is the only major contender. Nikki Haley, who is running in the Republican primary but not in the caucus, is expected to grab a symbolic victory in the primaries, which her party is begrudgingly holding to comply with a state mandate.The two-track nomination scheme has been widely criticised as a confusing and cynical scheme to benefit the former president.The confusing calendar as well as the seeming inevitability of Joe Biden and Trump as the eventual nominees, has resulted in an eerily quiet election morning. It does not help that an atmospheric river storm is passing through, drenching what is typically the nation’s driest state.“It’s raining here and we’re not used to that here in Las Vegas,” said D Taylor, the president of the Unite Here union, at a press conference on Tuesday morning.While he is certain to win it, the Democratic primary will still be a test for Biden, who has been working to shore up the support of Black and Latino voters in this key swing state. In the last two elections, Nevada’s Latino voters, who make up about 20% of the electorate, played a decisive role and helped Democrats win with thin margins. This year, despite the support of the state’s powerful Culinary Workers Union, which represents tens of thousands of hospitality and casino workers in Las Vegas and beyond, the US president will have to drum up enthusiasm among working class voters of color.During a campaign rally on Sunday, Biden warned of the threat that Trump poses to democratic norms, as he and his rival barrel toward an increasingly likely rematch in November. There was no mention of the administration’s support for Israel amid its bombardment of Gaza, which has angered and disheartened many young progressives ahead of the primaries.But Biden acknowledged that voters might be weary.“I know, we know, we have a lot more to do,” he said. “Not everyone is feeling the benefits of our investments and progress yet. But inflation is now lower in America than in any other major economy in the world.” Despite high unemployment rates, voters have been feeling the pinch of rising costs, and the majority of Latino voters in the state named economic concerns as a top issue.Biden met with Culinary Union members Monday. “I came to say thank you. Not just to say thank you for the support that you’ve given me last time out, but to thank you for having the faith in the union,” he told them.But amid protracted negotiations with Las Vegas’ resorts and casinos, and the Super Bowl coming up this weekend, organizers have been focused on campaigns for fair wages and benefits for workers ahead of the biggest sports event of the year.“There will be plenty of time to talk about politics,” said Taylor – noting that the unions’ first priority now is making sure these workers at the Allegiant Stadium, which will host the Super Bowl this weekend, have the right to organize and can earn fair wages.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion“At the end of the month, you know, you just work to just pay the bills, then go back to zero in the bank and start again, and again and again,” said Luis Medina, a 21-year-old who will be voting for the first time this year. Medina, who works as a floor installer in Las Vegas and organises with the progressive group Make the Road Action Nevada, said he’s still unsure who he’ll back for president.“I am worried about the economy and inflation. But, you know, I think some of that’s the aftermath of what Trump left,” he said. But he’s unsure if Biden has done much better.Biden could be bolstered by encouraging economic numbers in January, when average hourly earnings rose 0.6% and unemployment remained low.Turnout in the primaries is expected to be low, especially given that the races are not competitive. Local advocacy groups – both partisan and nonpartisan – are planning to ramp up canvassing efforts later in the spring and summer. A pro-Biden Super Pac recently has also reserved a record $250m in advertising across seven battleground states, including Nevada, with an eye on mobilising disaffected younger voters, Latino and Black voters.Leo Murrieta, the director of Make the Road Action in Nevada, said he was skeptical of polls and analysis indicating that Republicans had made gains among Latino voters. “The narrative that brown voters are defecting to the Republican side, that’s not true,” he said. “They’re not defecting – they are just going home. Our job is to go to their homes and pull them out to vote.”Linda Hunt, a server at El Cortez hotel and casino in Las Vegas, said on Tuesday that she isn’t too worried about a lack of voter enthusiasm in the state. “It may not be in the media, but I think people are on fire,” she said.Hunt, who has been a member of the Culinary Union for 45 years, voted early in the Democratic primary for Biden. “He’s the most pro-union president I’ve ever seen,” she said. “He’s for the workers.”She’s worried about the cost of housing and healthcare. But she doesn’t blame Biden’s economy. “This isn’t about the economy – it’s about corporate greed,” she said. As long as the president is able to tell voters how he plans to address rising costs and hold corporations accountable, she said, working class Nevadans will turn out for him. “I know Biden’s going to do it!” she said. “I don’t even worry about Trump. I’m maintaining my peace.” More

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      Nevada: rival primary and caucuses ensure confusion … and a Trump win

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      When Nevada Republicans started receiving their mail-in ballots for the state’s 6 February primary, Nikki Haley’s name was on them, but a key person was missing: Donald Trump. It’s not an accident.Instead of appearing on the primary ballot in the key swing state, Trump is participating in the separate Republican caucuses to take place two days after the primary, on 8 February. Haley isn’t participating in those caucuses. The bizarre set-up means that Nevada Republicans will be asked to vote in a primary on 6 February and then in caucuses two days later to choose their party’s nominee. Only the caucuses will determine how Nevada’s 26 delegates are awarded at the Republican national convention.The Nevada Republican party created the chaotic scheme, changing its nomination rules last year, in what many say is a thinly veiled effort to benefit Trump. The changes have made Nevada’s GOP nomination in the primary essentially irrelevant and left voters confused.“What it’s probably doing is a) creating a lot of confusion and b) gonna reduce turnout and participation, which totally undermines the purpose of the caucuses, which is for party building,” said David Damore, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.Michael McDonald, the head of the Nevada Republican party, was one of six fake Trump electors indicted by Nevada’s attorney general, Aaron Ford. Jesse Law, the chair of the Clark county Republican party who also served in the Trump administration, and Jim DeGraffenreid, a Nevada Republican National Committee member, were also charged.“​​They did it because they are controlled by Trump people, and Trump wouldn’t like it if anything were left to chance,” said Jon Ralston, a well-respected Nevada political commentator who is CEO of the Nevada Independent. “He would almost surely have won the primary, too, but with universal mail ballots and a much larger universe, it would not have been as big a margin, probably.”In 2021, Nevada lawmakers approved a measure requiring the state to hold a primary election for the presidential preference contest. But last year, the state Republican party decided it wanted to hold caucuses instead. The party said it would award all of its delegates to the winner of the caucus. It also barred anyone who participated in the primary from also participating in the caucuses. It imposed a $55,000 fee to participate and prohibited Super Pacs from intervening in the caucuses – widely seen as an attack on Ron DeSantis, who relied heavily on his Super Pac throughout his campaign before dropping out in January.Under Nevada law, all voters are automatically mailed a ballot for the primary unless they opt out. There is also in-person early voting that began on 27 January, and voters can register to vote at the polls. The caucuses, by contrast, will take place from 5pm to 7.30pm, and voters have to appear in person and show ID to participate. Unlike a primary, in which votes are cast by ballot over the course of an early voting period and entire election days, voters in a caucus must show up in person at a designated place with their neighbors, where they are then given a ballot, after which they submit it and can stay and watch it get counted.Publicly, Nevada Republicans have said the caucuses are needed to ensure the integrity of the vote, even though voter fraud is exceedingly rare. “The caucus, until we get voter ID, and we get the mail-in ballot situation under control – the only pure way to have this is through a caucus,” McDonald, the Nevada Republican chair, said in an October interview with the Nevada newsmakers podcast.McDonald, who said in 2015 he favored primaries because they increased participation, did not respond to a request for an interview.View image in fullscreenJoe Lombardo, Nevada’s Republican governor, has said he will caucus for Trump but has criticized the dual primary and caucus system as confusing and said it would disenfranchise voters.Ralston said the party’s election integrity concerns were nonsense. “They want only the base to turn out, and the smaller the turnout, the better Trump is likely to do, especially now with only [Ryan] Binkley against him and no ‘none of the above’ to choose,” he said, referring to the long-shot candidate.Haley, along with Mike Pence and Tim Scott, chose to participate in the primary last year. Trump, Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Chris Christie all chose to participate in the caucuses. Because Haley is the only candidate left in the primary, she is guaranteed to win. Trump, similarly, is the only remaining major candidate in the caucuses and is guaranteed to win that contest.Haley has said she’s not participating in the caucuses because it was rigged for Trump. “I mean, talk to the people in Nevada. They will tell you the caucuses have been sealed off, bought and paid for for a long time. And so that’s why we got into the primary,” Haley told reporters during a campaign stop in Epping, New Hampshire, last month.And Trump’s campaign has gloated over its guaranteed win in the caucuses.“On February 8th, Nikki Haley will be handed her third straight loss – in Nevada. She inexplicably signed up to be included on the state Primary ballot despite the fact that she could not earn delegates in the Primary,” Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita, who both lead Trump’s campaign, wrote in a memo on Monday.Still, Trump allies have spread misinformation falsely suggesting the primary is unauthorized and Trump was wrongfully excluded from it. The presidential primary is required by state law – but Trump chose not to participate in the primary so he could be a candidate in the caucuses.Voters are confused about the process and why Trump isn’t on the primary ballot, said Cisco Aguilar, Nevada’s secretary of state.“Voters ask that question all the time,” he said in an interview. “It’s interesting because we did talk about it, we did address it, we tried to do as much mitigation as we could prior to the ballots being received. However, it’s human nature that the voter is only going to pay attention to what’s right in front of them at that moment in time.”The confusion is exacerbated by the fact that the primary is run by state officials and the caucuses are run entirely by the state GOP.Kerry Durmick, the Nevada state director for All Voting Is Local, a non-partisan group focused on expanding voting access, said she went to observe one of the first days of early voting and saw confusion.“I did see a lot of voters say, ‘Oh, I thought today was the caucus. Oh, I thought we were voting in February. Can I vote today or do I need to vote then?’” she said. “Legally the parties can handle the process however they want to. Where I’m frustrated, where All Voting Is Local is frustrated, is the lack of outreach that was done by this particular party around this particular process because this was the choice that they made.”Republicans are also reportedly still seeking volunteers to staff the caucus sites, which the party was still finalising less than a month ahead of the event, according to the Las Vegas Sun.There could be even more confusion if the dual contest system results in both candidates claiming victory in Nevada. After 6 February, Haley could claim she won the Nevada primary. Two days later, Trump will claim he won the caucuses.“To the degree that there’s any sort of media attention of the Tuesday results, it’s gonna be ‘Nikki Haley wins the Nevada primary. Oh, but Donald Trump wasn’t on the ballot.’ That’s a more complicated soundbite but she can certainly spin that,” said Damore.During a rally in Las Vegas last weekend, Trump reminded his supporters to turn out, even though he’s guaranteed to win the contest. “We do want to get a good vote. We’re not going to have a lot of competition, I think. But it doesn’t matter. We want to get a great, beautiful mandate,” he said.“It’s very important for you to help educate all of our supporters that we’re not talking about the government-run, universal mail-in ballots. We don’t want mail-in ballot,” he added. “Do the caucus, not the primary. The primary is meaningless. I don’t know, maybe they’ll try and use it for public relations purposes.”Lauren Gambino contributed reporting More

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      Trump Campaigns in Nevada, Where He Has Virtually No Rival

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      Former President Donald J. Trump, long the dominant front-runner in the Republican nominating contest, has made it clear for months that he is itching to focus on a likely general election matchup between him and President Biden.On Saturday, he’ll campaign in Nevada, a critical battleground state. But first he’ll need at least a handful of his supporters to turn out for the nominating caucuses in the state on Feb. 8 — and his last remaining Republican rival for the nomination, Nikki Haley, is doing everything she can to remind him she’s still in the race even if they won’t meet head-to-head in Nevada.Off the trail on Friday, Ms. Haley assailed Mr. Trump as “unhinged” on Fox News as she continued to try and bait him into a one-on-one debate. Mr. Trump was in a New York City courtroom, but his campaign sent out email blasts pointing to articles that seemed to bolster the case that she should cede the race to him, and attacking her on immigration.“There’s one thing Americans know — Nikki will always put America last,” Steven Cheung, a Trump spokesman, wrote.There are two contests coming up in Nevada: the caucuses, and a presidential primary on Feb. 6. The presidential primary features Ms. Haley on the ballot, but won’t count toward the G.O.P. nomination, so she is skipping the state entirely. The caucuses feature Mr. Trump without a single major competitor — and that’s the contest that will determine who gets the state’s delegate prize.Critics have argued that the state party set up the caucuses to benefit Mr. Trump — which the party denies.“Nevada will certainly be a good messaging opportunity for Trump, because he’s going to win all the delegates here, and he will win unopposed,” said Jeremy Gelman, an associate professor of political science at the University of Nevada, Reno. “He will be able to say he swept Nevada.”Still, the specter of Ms. Haley’s continued presence in the race is likely to hang over Mr. Trump’s speech on Saturday, his first campaign event since winning in New Hampshire, where he beat her by 11 percentage points.The former president and his team were hoping his showing there would persuade Ms. Haley to end her campaign. But she vowed to keep fighting, drawing Mr. Trump’s ire.“I don’t get too angry,” he said on Tuesday. In a signal of the likelihood that he would continue escalating his attacks against her, he added: “I get even.”On Saturday, she will be across the country, holding a rally in her home state of South Carolina, the site of her next electoral battle with Mr. Trump on Feb. 24. Back in Las Vegas, he’ll share a different split screen, this one with Vice President Kamala Harris.Ms. Harris will attend a get-out-the-vote event at a labor union headquarters meant to encourage turnout in Nevada’s Democratic primary. More

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      Trump Defends 6 Republicans Charged in Scheme to Overturn His 2020 Loss

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      At a campaign event in Nevada, the former president said, without evidence, that the Biden administration was unfairly targeting the Republican officials accused of being fake electors.Former President Donald J. Trump on Sunday defended six Nevada Republicans who were recently indicted in connection with a scheme to overturn his 2020 election loss, claiming without evidence that they were victims of political persecution by the Biden administration.Mr. Trump has repeatedly rebuffed accusations this month that he has antidemocratic inclinations by pointing his finger at President Biden. He often claims without evidence that Mr. Biden is weaponizing the Justice Department to influence the 2024 election.At a campaign event on Sunday in Reno, Mr. Trump sharpened that attack by pointing to the indictment this month of six members of Nevada’s Republican Party who had acted as fake electors in a scheme intended to overturn Mr. Biden’s 2020 victory. Those charged included Michael J. McDonald, the state party’s chairman.“They’re a bunch of dirty players,” Mr. Trump said of Mr. Biden and Democrats. “Look at what they’re doing right here to Michael and great people in this state. It’s a disgrace.”Mr. Trump’s comments in Nevada, which is expected to be a crucial battleground state, are among the many ways he has sought to question the integrity of the election process and to raise doubts about results he opposes.The former president, who also faces charges over his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election, repeated his false claims that the election was stolen from him. And he broadly accused Democrats of cheating in elections, without evidence.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

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      Nevada Charges Republican Party Leaders in 2020 Fake Elector Scheme

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      The six Republicans charged on Wednesday included the state party’s chairman and vice chairman as well as the chairman of the Republican Party in Clark County.A Nevada grand jury indicted top leaders of the state’s Republican Party on charges of forging and submitting fraudulent documents in the fake elector scheme to overturn Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s victory in the 2020 presidential election, the state’s attorney general announced on Wednesday.The six Republicans charged, who claimed to be electors for Donald J. Trump, included the chairman of the state party, Michael J. McDonald. Also included are Jim Hindle, the state party’s vice chairman; Jim DeGraffenreid, a national committeeman; Jesse Law, the chairman of the Republican Party in Clark County, home to Las Vegas; and Shawn Meehan and Eileen Rice, executive board members of the Republican Party in Douglas County.“When the efforts to undermine faith in our democracy began after the 2020 election, I made it clear that I would do everything in my power to defend the institutions of our nation and our state,” Aaron D. Ford, Nevada’s attorney general and a Democrat, said in a statement. “We cannot allow attacks on democracy to go unchallenged. Today’s indictments are the product of a long and thorough investigation, and as we pursue this prosecution, I am confident that our judicial system will see justice done.”The charges are the latest in a nationwide effort by officials to prosecute those who falsely portrayed themselves as state electors in an effort to overturn Mr. Trump’s defeat in 2020. Michigan’s attorney general charged 16 Republicans in July for a similar effort in the state.The plan involved creating false slates of electors pledged to Mr. Trump in seven swing states that were won by Mr. Biden in an effort to overturn the election.Kenneth Chesebro, a key player in the fake elector scheme, is listed as a witness in the Nevada indictments. Mr. Chesebro had earlier pleaded guilty in a criminal racketeering indictment in Georgia that accused him of conspiring to overturn the 2020 election. Mr. Chesebro had also agreed to cooperate with state prosecutors in that case.The six Republicans were each charged in similar four-page indictments with one count of forging certificates designating Nevada’s electoral votes for Mr. Trump, even though Mr. Biden won the state in 2020. They were also each charged with one count of knowingly submitting these fake certificates to state and federal officials.If convicted, the false electors face a combined maximum of nine years in prison and $15,000 in fines. More

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      Six Nevada Republicans charged with casting fake electoral votes in 2020

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      Six Republicans who cast fake electoral votes for Donald Trump in Nevada in 2020 were charged with two felonies each by the state’s attorney general on Wednesday.The Democratic attorney general, Aaron Ford, announced the charges, saying a grand jury had decided to charge the six fake electors with “offering a false instrument for filing” and “uttering a forged instrument” for sending documents claiming to be the state’s electors.Fake electors in Georgia and Michigan have already been charged, while others of the seven states with similar schemes are still investigating the issue. A separate civil lawsuit in Wisconsin over the fake electors settled this week, with the Republicans who claimed Trump won the state acknowledging Biden’s victory and agreeing not to serve as electors next year.“When the efforts to undermine faith in our democracy began after the 2020 election, I made it clear that I would do everything in my power to defend the institutions of our nation and our state,” Ford said in a statement. “We cannot allow attacks on democracy to go unchallenged. Today’s indictments are the product of a long and thorough investigation, and as we pursue this prosecution, I am confident that our judicial system will see justice done.”Ford had previously said the state’s laws didn’t address a situation like this. The state legislature passed a bill to make it a felony to be a fake elector, but the governor vetoed the bill.The six Nevadans charged are Michael McDonald, Jesse Law, Jim DeGraffenreid, Durward James Hindle III, Shawn Meehan and Eileen Rice.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe filing a false instrument charge is a category C felony, punishable by up to five years in prison and a $10,000 fine, while the uttering a false instrument charge is a category D felony, with potential for up to four years in prison and a $5,000 fine. More

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      Can Nikki Haley Beat Trump?

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      It’s time to admit that I underestimated Nikki Haley.When she began her presidential campaign, she seemed caught betwixt and between: too much of a throwback to pre-Trump conservatism to challenge Ron DeSantis for the leadership of a Trumpified party, but also too entangled with Trump after her service in his administration to offer the fresh start that anti-Trump Republicans would be seeking.If you wanted someone to attack Trump head-on with relish, Chris Christie was probably your guy. If you wanted someone with pre-Trump Republican politics but without much Trump-era baggage, Tim Scott seemed like the fresher face.But now Scott is gone, Christie has a modest New Hampshire constituency and not much else, and Haley is having her moment. She’s in second place in New Hampshire, tied with DeSantis in the most recent Des Moines Register-led poll in Iowa, and leading Joe Biden by more than either DeSantis or Trump in national polls. Big donors are fluttering her way, and there’s an emerging media narrative about how she’s proving the DeSantis campaign theory wrong and showing that you can thrive as a Republican without surrendering to Trumpism.To be clear, I do not think Haley has proved the DeSantis theory wrong. She is not polling anywhere close to the highs DeSantis hit during his stint as the Trump-slayer, and if you use the Register-led poll to game out a future winnowing, you see that her own voters would mostly go to DeSantis if she were to drop out — but if DeSantis drops out, a lot of his voters would go to Trump.As long as that’s the case, Haley might be able to consolidate 30 or 35 percent of the party, but the path to actually winning would be closed. Which could make her ascent at DeSantis’s expense another study in the political futility of anti-Trump conservatism, its inability to wrestle successfully with the populism that might make Trump the nominee and the president again.But credit where it’s due: Haley has knocked out Scott, passed Christie and challenged DeSantis by succeeding at a core aspect of presidential politics — presenting yourself as an appealing and charismatic leader who can pick public fights and come out the winner (at least when Vivek Ramaswamy is your foil).So in the spirit of not underestimating her, let’s try to imagine a scenario where Haley actually wins the nomination.First, assume that ideological analysis of party politics is overrated, and that a candidate’s contingent success can yield irresistible momentum, stampeding voters in a way that polls alone cannot anticipate.For Haley, the stampede scenario requires winning outright in New Hampshire. The difficulty is that even on the upswing, she still trails Trump 46-19 in the current RealClearPolitics Average. But assume that Christie drops out and his support swings her way, assume that the current polling underestimates how many independents vote in the G.O.P. primary, assume a slight sag for Trump and a little last-moment Nikkimentum, and you can imagine your way to a screaming upset — Haley 42, Trump 40.Then assume that defeat forces Trump to actually debate in the long February lull (broken only by the Nevada caucus) between New Hampshire and the primary in Haley’s own South Carolina. Assume that the front-runner comes across as some combination of rusty and insane, Haley handles him coolly and then wins her home state primary. Assume that polls still show her beating Biden, Fox News has rallied to her fully, endorsements flood in — and finally, finally, enough voters who like Trump because he’s a winner swing her way to clear a path to the nomination.You’ll notice, though, that this story skips over Iowa. That’s because I’m not sure what Haley needs there. Victory seems implausible, but does she want to surge so impressively that it knocks DeSantis out of the race? Or, as the Dispatch’s Nick Catoggio has suggested, does the fact that DeSantis’s voters mostly have Trump as a second choice mean that Haley actually needs DeSantis to stay in the race through the early states, so that Trump can’t consolidate his own potential support? In which case maybe Haley needs an Iowa result where both she and DeSantis overperform their current polling, setting her up for New Hampshire but also giving the Florida governor a reason to hang around.This dilemma connects to my earlier argument that beating Trump requires a joining of the Haley and DeSantis factions, an alliance of the kind contemplated by Trump’s opponents in 2016 but never operationalized. But I doubt Haley is interested in such an alliance at the moment; after all, people are talking about her path to victory — and here I am, doing it myself!Fundamentally, though, I still believe that Haley’s destiny is anticipated by the biting, “congrats, Nikki,” quote from a DeSantis ally in New York Magazine: “You won the Never Trump primary. Your prize is nothing.”The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTOpinion) and Instagram. More