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      Long-shot Democratic candidates seek upset in New Hampshire primary

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      As New Hampshire voters head to the polls on Tuesday, much attention will be paid to the Republican presidential primary, but another race could provide additional clues about the general election in November.New Hampshire Democrats are moving forward with holding their presidential primary on Tuesday, despite warnings from the national party. The Democratic National Committee decided last year to make South Carolina the first voting state, a move that upended a century-old tradition of New Hampshire hosting the first primary.Outraged over the voting calendar change, New Hampshire officials have chosen to hold an unsanctioned Democratic primary on Tuesday, although the DNC has said it will not award delegates based on the results. Joe Biden’s name will not appear on the ballot, but his allies have launched a vigorous write-in campaign in support of his re-election.Other long-shot candidates, namely the Minnesota congressman Dean Phillips and self-help author Marianne Williamson, hope to capitalize on Biden’s absence and pull off an upset in New Hampshire. The two candidates have held events across the state to make their pitch that the Democratic party needs to move in a new direction.“We believe it is time to segregate the far-left and the far-right and give voice to the exhausted majority of America. Are you ready for that?” Phillips told a crowd in Nashua on Saturday.In total, the names of 21 candidates will appear on New Hampshire’s Democratic primary ballot. Some voters outraged over the war in Gaza are also expected to write in “ceasefire” to criticize US support for Israel’s military. Given the large number of expected write-in votes, it may take longer than usual for New Hampshire officials to count Democratic primary ballots after polls start closing at 7pm ET.Even without a formal campaign presence in New Hampshire, Biden is expected to receive the most votes by a wide margin. An Emerson College/WHDH poll conducted last week showed Biden winning the support of 61% of likely Democratic primary voters, compared to 16% for Phillips and 5% for Williamson.But a disappointing performance could point to decreased enthusiasm among the Democratic base, which would be a worrisome sign for Biden heading into the general election. Polls already show Biden running neck and neck with Donald Trump, who is widely expected to win the Republican presidential nomination.In an indication of Biden’s potential vulnerabilities, some of the president’s prominent allies, including Congressman Ro Khanna of California, have spent time campaigning on his behalf in New Hampshire. Speaking at a house party in support of the write-in campaign on Saturday, Khanna predicted a “decisive win” for Biden in New Hampshire.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion“That’s going to propel him to have a big win in November,” Khanna said. “At the end of the day, I am a believer that Americans love this country and love our democracy.”
      Adam Gabbatt contributed reporting from New Hampshire More

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      Time to back Trump: Republican donors accept the inevitable

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      Vivek Ramaswamy urged the crowd to end the primary right here. Doug Burgum told them to think of safety and prosperity. Tim Scott posed a series of questions that culminated with: “How many y’all want me to stop talking so you can hear from your next president, Donald J Trump?”As the three failed US presidential candidates turned endorsers stood alongside Trump on stage in Laconia, New Hampshire, on Monday, the crowd chanted “Four more years!” and the message to Republicans was clear: join us now or be cast into the political wilderness.The show of unity exemplified the breakneck speed with which elected officials, rightwing media and megadonors are consolidating around Trump as their seemingly inevitable nominee in 2024. Trump told the rally: “Now is the time for the Republican party to come together. We have to unify … We’re all in the same team, 100% focused on [Joe] Biden and beating him in November.”Buoyed by a record win in last week’s Iowa caucuses and the exit of the Florida governor, Ron DeSantis, Trump heads into Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary election with only one opponent standing in his way: Nikki Haley, a former US ambassador to the UN. If the former president wins convincingly, as opinion polls suggest, Haley will face renewed pressure to end the anti-Trump resistance.Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center thinktank in Washington DC, said: “The two-thirds of the party that’s Maga-friendly has largely coalesced around Trump, and is continuing to do so. It would take a miracle for Haley to even make it a race at this point. Miracles happen, but you don’t predict them.”He added: “Anyone who wants to remain viable in today’s Republican party will either fall into line publicly, or be quiet in not falling into line. And that’s what you will see among the donor class.”It is a striking contrast from the 2016 primary season, when multiple candidates continued to battle Trump into May. It is also very different mood music from a year ago when, in the wake of disappointing midterm elections, there were rumblings of discontent in the Republican party and a desire to turn the page.The shift was evident in the donor class. Club For Growth, an anti-tax group, and Americans For Prosperity, founded by the billionaire industrialist Koch brothers, poured millions of dollars into an effort to stop Trump. Last May, for example, Club For Growth released a golf-themed ad attacking him over his plan for social security. Americans for Prosperity endorsed Haley and by December had spent $4m to boost her.But just as in 2016, when Jeb Bush was the establishment choice, the primary has demonstrated that money is no substitute for having the right candidate at the right time. Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina received backing from high-profile donors but was outshone in debates, and never gained traction in the polls. He withdrew and endorsed Trump.As DeSantis’s profile soared, he enjoyed an influx of cash, only to burn it through it rapidly with over-hiring, staff shakeups and frequent “resets”. Last November Robert Bigelow, one of DeSantis’s most prominent funders, announced that he was switching allegiance to Trump. By some estimates, DeSantis and an allied Super Pac spent at least $53m in Iowa – a return of roughly $2,262 per vote as he lost by nearly 30 percentage points.Meanwhile, Trump proved more resilient that expected. He weaponised a series of criminal indictments and court appearances to rally his base and raise funds. Polls showed him beating Biden in a hypothetical match-up, undercutting the electability argument. As a former president and reality TV star, he enjoyed the kind of celebrity that money can’t buy.Olsen said: “Money has always been an overrated feature of politics. Money helps when it’s delivering a message that resonates. What the big money in the Republican party has been doing for the last decade or more has been getting behind candidates whose message does not resonate.”The Trump campaign has relished the failure of big-money groups trying to tear him down. Speaking from Charleston, South Carolina, the Trump fundraiser Ed McMullen said: “One of the great stories of this primary cycle is that the hundreds of millions of dollars spent against Donald Trump have only fuelled the support for him.“People don’t want oligarchs in the United States determining who the president’s gonna be. They are absolutely turning to the president, despite hundreds of millions of dollars in negative TV ads.”McMullen, a former ambassador to Switzerland who was at the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos last week, claims that dozens of DeSantis and Haley donors have been calling him since the Iowa caucuses, wanting to back Trump instead.“The fact that Iowa happened to be so strong for the president sent a pretty strong shockwaves throughout the little town of Davos, where many business leaders intentionally sought me out to find ways that they could be engaged and support the president and get on board,” he said.Not all of Haley’s donors are buckling. Along with Americans for Prosperity, they include Reid Hoffman, the founder of LinkedIn, and Stanley Druckenmiller, a hedge fund billionaire who will co-host a fundraiser for her on 30 January.But some speak of being pressured to abandon Haley and come into the fold. Fred Zeidman, a longtime Haley fundraiser from Texas, told Reuters: “I get calls all the time.”He summed up what Trump’s allies tell him: “We’re going to win. You’re going to lose. Don’t you want to be on the right team?”Those calls are likely to intensify if Trump wins big on Tuesday night. Having realised which way the wind was blowing, hesitant Republicans are rushing to get back in his good graces. It would be no surprise if a procession of senators, representatives, governors and former cabinet officials, along with donors, make a pilgrimage to Mar-a-Lago in Florida to pledge allegiance.Ed Rogers, a veteran of several national campaigns, said: “I would not have guessed this would happen a year ago. But for the last two or three months it’s been clear that none of the other campaigns were going to beat the Trump campaign.”“The only thing that’s gonna keep Trump from being the Republican nominee is for him to step on a banana peel or some act-of-God lightning strike.” More

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      When Will We Get Results for the New Hampshire Primary?

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      The very first results in the New Hampshire primary became available within minutes of midnight on Tuesday. But beyond Dixville Notch, where polling opened at midnight for the small town’s six registered voters and closed soon afterward, voting locations in most of the rest of the state will be open until 7 p.m. Eastern time. Initial results will most likely become available soon after that.David Scanlan, the secretary of state, said he expected that most votes would be counted on Tuesday night. News media outlets are likely to call the race before all ballots are counted, whenever a winner becomes apparent.The Associated Press does not expect to make a call before 8 p.m., when the last polls close. But in 2016, its call in the Republican primaries came right at 8 p.m.Results in the Democratic race might come in later because it will take election workers extra time to count the write-in votes for President Biden, who is not on the ballot after New Hampshire fought his decision to push the state back on the party’s nominating calendar. The results may be slightly delayed, but state officials expect them to be counted before the end of the night.“Several of the larger communities have recruited extra volunteers to help with the process, so we are not expecting huge delays,” said Anna Sventek, the communications director for the New Hampshire Department of State. More

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      What’s a Never-Trump Conservative to Do?

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      David French and Jillian Weinberger and Donald Trump is expected to win decisively in New Hampshire’s primary on Tuesday. For Republican voters who don’t want Trump as their nominee, what alternatives exist?In this audio interview, the deputy Opinion editor, Patrick Healy, talks with Opinion columnist David French about how a probable Trump nomination will “cement a significant change in two directions with the G.O.P.”(A full transcript of this audio essay will be available midday on the Times website.)Illustration by Akshita Chandra/The New York TimesThe Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow the New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, X (@NYTOpinion) and Instagram.This episode of “The Opinions” was produced by Jillian Weinberger with help from Vishakha Darbha. It was edited by Alison Bruzek and Annie-Rose Strasser. Mixing by Carole Sabouraud with engineering support from Isaac Jones. Original music by Sonia Herrero. Fact-checking by Kate Sinclair. Audience strategy by Kristina Samulewski. Source photograph by juliaf/Getty Images. More

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      Primarias en Nuevo Hampshire: lo que hay que saber

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      Este martes se celebran las primeras elecciones primarias del país. Están en juego 11 delegados republicanos. Los demócratas no concederán delegados.Los votantes de Nuevo Hampshire acudirán a las urnas el martes para participar en las primeras elecciones primarias del país, en las que Nikki Haley espera hacer mella en la ventaja de delegados del expresidente Donald Trump tras su gran victoria en el caucus de Iowa. La votación en el estado comienza técnicamente a medianoche, pero la gran mayoría de centros electorales abrirán a las 7:00 a. m., hora del Este.Esto es lo que hay que saber:¿Cuándo son las primarias de Nuevo Hampshire?Las primarias de este año están previstas para el martes 23 de enero.¿Por qué Nuevo Hampshire va de primero?La respuesta simple es porque así lo dicta la ley: una ley estatal aprobada en 1975 establece que las elecciones deben celebrarse allí al menos una semana antes de las primarias de cualquier otro estado.La tradición electoral del llamado “estado de granito” existía mucho antes de que se aprobara la ley. La primera vez que una votación del país se realizó primero en ese estado tuvo lugar en 1920, cuando 16.195 republicanos y 7103 demócratas acudieron a las urnas el 9 de marzo.Desde entonces, el estado se ha aferrado a esta tradición. Ser el primero tiene sus ventajas: cada cuatro años, el foco político trae consigo una afluencia de dinero, medios de comunicación y atención de otros lugares a este pequeño estado con baja densidad de población.¿Cómo funcionan las primarias de Nuevo Hampshire?El martes, los votantes de Nuevo Hampshire se dirigirán a los centros electorales de su pueblo o ciudad para votar por quien quieren que sea el candidato presidencial demócrata o republicano.Las papeletas se tabularán mediante máquinas de recuento de votos. Los trabajadores electorales leerán y contarán a mano los votos por escrito, como los del presidente Biden, quien no aparecerá en las papeletas demócratas. El Partido Demócrata cambió su calendario de primarias, desplazando a Nuevo Hampshire del primer puesto en favor de Carolina del Sur, pero Nuevo Hampshire se negó a cambiar su fecha y de todos modos celebrará primarias demócratas. Biden se negó a participar, por lo que sus partidarios han montado una campaña por escrito en su nombre, pero no se concederán delegados.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

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      What You Need to Know About the 2024 New Hampshire Primary: The Run Up

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      Listen to and follow ‘The Run-Up’Apple Podcasts | Spotify | AmazonSupporters of former President Donald Trump cheer during a campaign rally on January 19 in Concord, N.H.Chip Somodevilla/Getty ImagesWarning: this episode contains strong language.On Sunday, after a disappointing finish in the Iowa caucuses and with just two days to go before the New Hampshire primary, Ron DeSantis ended his campaign for president.His decision made it official: The race for the Republican nomination is now a head-to-head contest between two wildly different candidates, Nikki Haley and Donald Trump.And now, the famously independent New Hampshire voters are going to determine how serious a contest it is.We’re looking for three big things.First, how Haley’s recent change in tone and sharpening attacks on Trump will play with independents. Second, whether Trump is as dominant here as he was in Iowa. And third, what the Democrats are up to — since there’s a contest here on that side too.About ‘The Run-Up’“The Run-Up” is your guide to understanding the 2024 election. Through on-the-ground reporting and conversations with colleagues from The New York Times, newsmakers and voters across the country, our host, Astead W. Herndon, takes us beyond the horse race to explore how we came to this unprecedented moment in American politics. New episodes on Thursdays.Credits“The Run-Up” is hosted by More

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      Nikki Haley chases an upset in bitter New Hampshire face-off with Trump

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      New Hampshire will hold its first-in-the nation primary on Tuesday in what may be the last chance Republicans have to stop Donald Trump from running away with the nomination, as Nikki Haley chases an upset in the Granite state.Eight days after the former president’s record-setting victory in the Iowa caucuses, he is now locked in an increasingly bitter showdown with Haley, who has staked her candidacy on a strong showing in the more moderate New Hampshire. Ron DeSantis, the former Florida governor, exited the race on Sunday, adding his name to the stack of Republican officials consolidating behind Trump.Trump leads by double-digit margins but is considered more vulnerable in the state, where independent voters make up nearly 40% of the electorate and can choose to vote in either party’s primary.“We always buck the trend in New Hampshire,” the state’s Republican governor, Chris Sununu, told voters as he escorted Haley across the state on the eve of the election.Sununu, one of the few Trump critics left in the party, said a show of support in New Hampshire would vault her into next month’s contest in South Carolina. He has suggested Haley could win the primary outright. More recently, he has moderated expectations, insisting that she has already exceeded expectations as the only candidate still standing in the primary against Trump.Republicans are predicting record turnout – and good weather, seen as a possible boon to Haley who is relying more heavily on voters who don’t typically participate in the party’s primary.The stakes could not be higher for Haley. She is barnstorming the state, from the “suburbs to the seacoast”, trying to persuade anti-Trump independents and open-minded conservatives to back her long-shot bid.Trump by contrast has been in and out of the state, holding raucous evening rallies between appearances in court. New Hampshire propelled Trump to the Republican nomination in 2016 after he came in second in the Iowa caucuses. This year, Trump hopes to notch a victory large enough to effectively extinguish Haley’s campaign.For much of her nearly year-long campaign, Haley carefully avoided Trump, instead drawing implicit contrasts with calls for a “new generation” of leaders in Washington and a proposal to instate cognitive tests for older politicians. But in the final days before New Hampshire’s primary, she went after him more aggressively, questioning his mental fitness and accusing him of cozying up to dictators and autocrats.Trump responded with insults and misrepresentations while accusing her campaign of relying on the support of “globalists” and liberals to win. In an ugly series of social media posts, he revived the birtherism conspiracy that she was ineligible to be president because her parents were not US citizens when she was born. This is false; Haley, the South Carolina-born daughter of immigrants from India, is eligible. Trump also appeared to mock her Indian ancestry by referring to – and mispelling – her given name, Nimarata. Haley has always gone by her middle name, Nikki.Haley and her allies insist she has a path forward even if she doesn’t pull off an upset. Improving on her third-place finish in Iowa would be enough. But if she can’t win in New Hampshire, with an electorate seen as far more friendly to her brand of Republicanism, analysts said it will be hard to make the pitch to voters – and donors – that she can win anywhere else.Haley has scheduled a rally in North Charleston, South Carolina, on Wednesday night. It will be accompanied by the launch of a $4m investment in television, radio and digital advertising to air across South Carolina.Democrats will also hold a primary on Tuesday, but Joe Biden’s name won’t be on the ballot. Though turnout is expected to be low, Democrats will have the choice between voting for Dean Phillips, a Democratic congressman from Minnesota, and Marianne Williamson, an author and self-help guru who ran for president in 2020. Meanwhile, some of the president’s supporters in the state have urged Democrats to write in Biden’s name on their ballots. More