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      How Likely Is a Democratic Comeback Next Year?

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      The election results from last week reconfirmed a basic reality about American politics: For either party, holding the White House comes with significant power, but in off-year elections, it is often a burden.Democrats hoped that this year would be an exception. By trying to focus the electorate on Donald Trump, they sought to rouse the Democratic base. This approach would also avoid making elections a referendum on President Biden and his approval ratings, which have sagged after months of struggles with the Afghanistan exit, Covid, gas prices, inflation and congressional Democrats.In other words, Democrats hoped that the usual rules of political gravity would not apply. But we should not be surprised that the familiar force endured.Republicans performed well in races across the country — most notably in the governors’ races in Virginia and New Jersey, states that Mr. Biden won by double digits in 2020. Vote counts are still being finalized, but it appears they shifted almost identically toward the Republicans compared with 2017, the last time those governorships were on the ballot — margins of about 11 points. Virginia provides a striking example of how often the presidential party does poorly — the White House party candidate has now lost the gubernatorial race in 11 of the past 12 elections.Unfortunately for Democrats, political gravity is also likely to act against them in 2022 — and they face real limits on what they can do about it.There were signs of Democratic decline in all sorts of different places. The suburban-exurban Loudoun County in Northern Virginia is an example. Terry McAuliffe carried it, but his Republican rival in the governor’s race, Glenn Youngkin, campaigned aggressively there on education issues and basically cut the margin compared with 2017 in half. Places like Loudoun are where Democrats made advancements in the Trump years. To have any hope of holding the House next year, the party will have to perform well in such areas.Turnout in terms of raw votes cast compared with the 2017 gubernatorial race was up all over Virginia, but some of the places where turnout growth was smallest included Democratic urban areas and college towns.But Republicans had no such trouble: Their turnout was excellent. In New Jersey, the county that saw the biggest growth in total votes compared with 2017 was Ocean, an exurb on the Jersey Shore, which Gov. Phil Murphy’s Republican challenger, Jack Ciattarelli, won by over 35 points.Democrats have also struggled in rural areas, and the results last week suggest that they have not hit bottom there yet. In the Ninth Congressional District in rural southwestern Virginia, Mr. Youngkin performed even better than Mr. Trump did in 2020.This combination — even deeper losses in rural areas paired with fallout in more populous areas — would be catastrophic for Democrats, particularly in the competitive Midwest, where Mr. Biden in 2020 helped arrest Democratic decline in many white, rural areas but where it is not hard to imagine Democratic performance continuing to slide.Like this year, the fundamentals for the 2022 midterms are not in the Democrats’ favor. Midterms often act as an agent of change in the House. The president’s party has lost ground in the House in 37 of the 40 midterms since the Civil War, with an average seat loss of 33 (since World War II, the average is a smaller, though still substantial, 27). Since 1900, the House has flipped party control 11 times, and nine of those changes have come in midterm election years, including the last five (1954, 1994, 2006, 2010 and 2018). Given that Republicans need to pick up only five seats next year, they are very well positioned to win the chamber.It is not entirely unheard-of for the presidential party to net House seats in the midterms. It happened in 1998 and 2002, though those come with significant caveats. In ’98, President Bill Clinton had strong approval in spite of (or perhaps aided by) his impeachment battle with Republicans and presided over a strong economy; Democrats had also had lost a lot of ground in the 1994 midterm (and made only a dent in that new Republican majority in 1996). They gained a modest four seats.In 2002, Republicans were defending a slim majority, but they benefited from President George W. Bush’s sky-high approval rating following the Sept. 11 attacks and decennial reapportionment and redistricting, which contributed to their eight-seat net gain.So against this political gravity, is there anything Democrats can do? The passage of the bipartisan infrastructure bill as well as the possible passage of the party’s Build Back Better social spending package could help, though there is likely not a significant direct reward — new laws aren’t a magic bullet in campaigning. But a year from now, Democrats could be coming into the election under strong economic conditions and no longer mired in a high-profile intraparty stalemate (the McAuliffe campaign pointed to Democratic infighting as a drag).Factors like gas prices and the trajectory of Covid may be largely beyond the Democrats’ influence, but it is entirely possible that the country’s mood will brighten by November 2022 — and that could bolster Mr. Biden’s approval rating.When parties have bucked the midterm history, they’ve sometimes had an unusually good development emerge in their favor. If there is any lesson from last week’s results, it is that the circumstances were ordinary, not extraordinary. If they remain so, the Democratic outlook for next year — as it so often is for the presidential party in a midterm election — could be bleak.Kyle Kondik is the managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics and the author of “The Long Red Thread: How Democratic Dominance Gave Way to Republican Advantage in U.S. House Elections.”The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      In New Jersey, Stephen Sweeney Concedes Election to Edward Durr

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      The loss by Mr. Sweeney, a Democrat and the second most powerful lawmaker in New Jersey, suggest an erosion of Democratic support in suburban and rural areas.Stephen M. Sweeney, the second most powerful lawmaker in New Jersey, admitted defeat on Wednesday, eight days after voters elected a Republican truck driver who ran on a shoestring budget in one of the biggest political upsets in state history.Mr. Sweeney, the Democratic Senate president and a union leader, blamed his loss on overwhelming Republican turnout in his South Jersey district, which is about 15 miles outside Philadelphia.“It was a red wave,” he said in the State House complex in Trenton where he has governed with an iron fist since 2010, when he first took over as president of the Senate.Mr. Sweeney, who has made overtures about running for governor and holds a crucial role on a state redistricting committee, said that he planned to remain active in public life.“What the voters said in this election is New Jersey is a state filled with hardworking people who want to provide for their families and as leaders we need to speak directly to the concerns of all voters,” said Mr. Sweeney, an ironworker who has been in the State Senate since 2002. “I plan to keep speaking to those concerns.”Two hours later, the Republican who beat him, Edward Durr, stood in front of a microphone in the headquarters of the Gloucester County Republican Party, after pulling off one of the country’s most talked about upsets from a strip mall storefront next to a Batteries Plus shop.“I feel like I’m about to throw up,” Edward Durr said as he faced a phalanx of reporters after pulling off one of the biggest political upset in New Jersey history.Kriston Jae Bethel for The New York Times“I feel like I’m about to throw up,” Mr. Durr, who has logged more than two million miles as a truck driver for the Raymour & Flanigan furniture chain, said of the media glare.Former President Donald J. Trump had called to congratulate him on Sunday, and Mr. Durr’s win was featured on cable and network news, quickly becoming fodder for comedians on “Saturday Night Live” and “Last Week Tonight With John Oliver.”His successful campaign was seen as emblematic of a surge of Republican voters coupled with a disenchantment with Democrats that also led to a Republican win for governor in Virginia and an unexpectedly narrow re-election victory for Gov. Philip D. Murphy, a Democrat, in New Jersey.The statewide races are considered barometers of voter sentiment as Democrats struggle to hold on to a slim majority in Congress during next year’s midterm elections and illustrates the erosion of support for the party, especially in suburban and rural areas.Mr. Durr’s improbable victory has also led to an immediate shift in the discussion of priorities in Trenton.“I give the voters my promise I will fight the tyranny that Phil Murphy is, beginning on Day 1,” he said.Mr. Durr has spoken about his opposition to Mr. Murphy’s mandates related to mask-wearing and vaccination, and he would not say whether he had been inoculated against Covid-19.Before Election Day, Mr. Durr remained largely unvetted and unknown to the general public, and he continued doing damage control on Wednesday for comments he had made on social media, including one reflecting support for “both sides” of a violent racist rally in Charlottesville, Va., in 2017 and another condemning Islam and disparaging the Prophet Muhammad.After speaking at the G.O.P. headquarters, he was driven two miles to Al Minhal Academy of Islamic Education, a Muslim masjid in Washington Township, to talk with members of the mosque and leaders of the Council on American-Islamic Relations in New Jersey. The group remained inside for about two hours; Mr. Durr left carrying a paperback copy of the Quran.“We wanted to dispel any of the beliefs he has about our community,” Selaedin Maksut, executive director of the council, said before the meeting.“We also want to remind him of his responsibility as an elected official,” Mr. Maksut said. “He represents Muslims as well. It’s his responsibility to keep their safety in mind.”Mr. Durr wrote a note on Al Minhal stationery, committing to working with the Muslim community “going forward.” “I stand against Islamophobia and all forms of hate,” the note read.Mr. Durr has also apologized for his comments on social media.“You get behind a keyboard, you don’t see a person and you don’t consider the other person,” he said on Wednesday.“These are things I’ve done in the past,” he added. “It doesn’t define me as a person.”Mr. Durr’s two Republican running-mates, Beth Sawyer and Bethanne McCarthy Patrick, also ousted two Democratic members of the State Assembly, Adam Taliaferro and John J. Burzichelli, a former mayor of Paulsboro first elected to the State House in 2001.Mr. Durr and Ms. Sawyer ran unsuccessfully for State Assembly in 2019, and they were recruited to compete again by Jacci Vigilante, a trial lawyer who serves as the Republican chairwoman for Gloucester County.“He was honored to be asked,” Ms. Vigilante said of Mr. Durr. “He accepted readily.”Ms. Sawyer, a real estate broker who also runs her own home renovation construction company, said voters spoke mainly of the high cost of living as she campaigned door to door. She said she expected to focus on containing taxes when she gets to Trenton.“Taxes, taxes, taxes,” Ms. Sawyer said. “And cut government bloating.”Over the past three years, the Gloucester County G.O.P. joined with other neighboring county parties to lease space for a headquarters and they have built an email list from scratch that now includes thousands of names, Ms. Vigilante said.The group has held weekly happy hours and breakfasts, and it has organized trips to Atlantic City, to try to generate support for Republican candidates in a region that for decades has been dominated by Democrats.“It’s hard to raise money, and it’s hard to build an organization when you can’t produce wins,” she said.After last Tuesday, that may be less of a problem. More

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      Is a Red Wave Coming for Biden’s Presidency?

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      This article is part of the Debatable newsletter. You can sign up here to receive it on Tuesdays and Thursdays.The Republican Party, you may have heard by now, has a lot of news to celebrate after last week’s elections. In Virginia, a state that President Biden won by 10 points last year, it took back the governor’s mansion, a feat it hadn’t managed in over a decade. Republicans also came within striking distance of doing the same in New Jersey, a more deeply blue state that Biden won by about 16 points. And in New York, Democrats lost ground in local races too.Needless to say, tonight’s results are consistent w/ a political environment in which Republicans would comfortably take back both the House and Senate in 2022.— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 3, 2021
      What does the G.O.P.’s rebound tell us about how the electorate is changing, and what does it portend for the country’s political future in 2022 and beyond?The thermostat strikes backIn 1995, the political scientist Christopher Wlezien developed a theory known as the thermostatic model of American politics: The idea, as Vox’s Zack Beauchamp explains, is “to think of the electorate as a person adjusting their thermostat: When the political environment gets ‘too hot’ for their liking, they turn the thermostat down. When it gets ‘too cold,’ they turn it back up.”In practice, the thermostatic nature of public opinion means that the president’s party tends to struggle in off-year elections. Such swings have been observed for decades:The effect occurs for two reasons, The Washington Post’s Perry Bacon Jr. explains. “First, there is often a turnout gap that favors the party that doesn’t control the White House,” he writes. “Off-year elections have much lower turnout than presidential ones, but typically more people from the party that doesn’t control the presidency are motivated to vote in opposition to whatever the incumbent president is doing.” A turnout gap was certainly in evidence last week.The second reason for thermostatic backlash is that some voters switch from the president’s party, which also appears to have happened last week: Exit polls suggested that 5 percent of 2020 Biden voters backed Glenn Youngkin, the Republican candidate, while just 2 percent of those who voted for Donald Trump in 2020 supported Terry McAuliffe, the Democrat. “That only accounts for a few points,” Bacon notes, but given that Youngkin won by less than two percentage points, “those small shifts matter.”[“How shocking were New Jersey and Virginia, really?”]So why are voters cooling toward the Democrats?As Democrats make sense of their losses, “one fact stands out as one of the easiest explanations,” The Times’s Nate Cohn wrote. “Joe Biden has lower approval ratings at this stage of his presidency than nearly any president in the era of modern polling.”Why?Some argue that Biden is performing poorly because he has tacked too far left on policy. Representative Abigail Spanberger, a Virginia Democrat, told The Times: “Nobody elected him to be F.D.R., they elected him to be normal and stop the chaos.”Others blame a more general political-cultural gestalt: “wokeness.” “Wokeness Derailed the Democrats,” the Times columnist Maureen Dowd wrote last weekend. This line of argumentation has drawn criticism for being deliberately, even insidiously vague. But when it comes to last week’s elections, much of the “wokeness” debate, on both sides of the aisle, has revolved around the so-called critical race theory controversy in K-12 schools, which this newsletter explored at length in July.There are strong counterarguments to both of these explanations. As Beauchamp writes, while Youngkin did at one point vow to ban what has disingenuously been called critical race theory in public schools, his campaign wasn’t nearly as focused on the issue as some pundits made it out to be. Nor does the “critical race theory” controversy explain the election results in New Jersey, where there was a similar backlash against Democrats despite the race’s not being “particularly culture-war focused.”The Times columnist Michelle Goldberg argues that the real reason education was such an incendiary issue this election cycle “likely had less to do with critical race theory than with parent fury over the drawn-out nightmare of online school.” Zachary D. Carter agrees: “A lot of suburban parents lost faith in Virginia’s public schools over the past year, and as a result, they’re more open to conservative narratives about problems in public schools.”As for the idea that the Democrats’ underperformance owes to Biden’s leftward shift on policy, one could just as easily — if not more easily — take the opposite reading of events: During his campaign, Biden openly aspired to a presidency that would rival or even eclipse that of F.D.R.; in office, however, his legislative agenda, which remains broadly popular, has been stripped down and delayed by his own party. Couldn’t disappointment, not backlash, be to blame for his party’s low turnout?Some say that last week’s electoral shifts have even more general causes. Put simply, Americans are in a gloomy mood. A chief reason appears to be the pandemic, which has disrupted everyday life and the economy for longer than many expected.In the words of The Atlantic’s Derek Thompson, Democrats are losing the “vibe wars”: “Despite many positive economic trends, Americans are feeling rotten about the state of things — and, understandably, they’re blaming the party in power.”3 trends worth watchingRepublicans can succeed — and are perhaps even stronger — without Trump. As the G.O.P. pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson notes, Youngkin was able to enjoy the advantages of Trump — who over the past five years turned many formerly disengaged voters into habitual Republican voters — without incurring any of his liabilities. He did so mainly by neither embracing nor disavowing the former president.“In the current political environment, the Trump coalition seems primed to turn out and stick it to the Democrats even if Trump isn’t on the ballot himself,” she writes. And that means that “trying to use the fear of Trump to hold on to swing voters doesn’t seem as viable a strategy for Democrats.”Democrats’ problem with white non-college-educated voters is getting worse. For decades now, left-wing parties around the world have been losing support among their traditional working-class base. The Democratic Party has also suffered from this phenomenon, as the white electorate has become less polarized by income and more polarized by educational attainment.That trend appeared to assert itself in Virginia’s election last week, according to FiveThirtyEight, as the divide between white voters with and without a college degree grew.It’s not just white voters. In recent years, Democrats have also lost ground among Latino voters and, to a smaller extent, Black and Asian American voters, with the sharpest drops among those who did not attend college.The writer and researcher Matthew Thomas argues that there are signs that the racial depolarization of the electorate may be accelerating: In New York’s mayoral election last week, he notes, Queens precincts that are more than 75 percent Asian swung 14 points toward Republicans from four years ago, while Queens precincts that are over 75 percent Hispanic swung 30 points toward Republicans.“There’s no easy solution to the decades-long demobilization of working-class voters,” he writes. “But the left can’t afford to chalk up all of our defeats to whitelash alone. This country is in the midst of a profound realignment along axes of culture and education that are about to make race and class seem like yesterday’s news.”[“Why Americans Don’t Vote Their Class Anymore”]So are Democrats — and free and fair elections — doomed?As Bacon notes, the results from last week suggest that the Republican Party will suffer few electoral consequences in 2022 for its recent anti-democratic turn. “In normal circumstances, I’d see that as a bad thing, since my policy views are closer to the Democrats,” he writes. “But in our current abnormal circumstance, with U.S. democracy on the precipice because of the extremism of the current G.O.P., everyone needs to understand that normal could well be catastrophic.”How should Democrats respond?Some argue that they should tack to the center: “Congress should focus on what is possible, not what would be possible if Joe Manchin, Kyrsten Sinema and — frankly — a host of lesser-known Democratic moderates who haven’t had to vote on policies they might oppose were not in office,” the Times editorial board writes.Samuel Moyn, a professor of history and law at Yale, thinks that’s precisely the wrong approach given the popularity of progressive economic policies: “Even if progressives were to secure a welfare package and retain influence in their party, Trump — or an even more popular Republican — could still win the presidency. But this outcome is a near certainty if the Democrats return to centrist form — as seems the likeliest outcome now.”In the end, as Moyn suggests, policy may not have the power to save Democrats from defeat. As The Times’s David Leonhardt noted last week, some political scientists believe that Democrats overweight the electoral importance of policy and don’t talk enough about values.And the values Biden ran on were, in effect, a liberal answer to Trump’s “Make America Great Again” creed, a promise to restore “the soul of America” to its former self. “Joe Biden promised normality, Americans got abnormality, and Democrats got punished at the polls for it,” Thompson writes in The Atlantic. “The path toward a more successful midterm election for Democrats in 2022 flows through the converse of this strategy. First, make things feel better. Then talk about it.”Do you have a point of view we missed? Email us at debatable@nytimes.com. Please note your name, age and location in your response, which may be included in the next newsletter.READ MORE“What Moves Swing Voters” [The New York Times]“Why Virginia’s And New Jersey’s Elections Could Suggest A Red Wave In 2022” [FiveThirtyEight]“The Powerful G.O.P. Strategy Democrats Must Counter if They Want to Win” [The New York Times]“Bill Clinton Saved His Presidency. Here’s How Biden Can, Too.” [The New York Times]“How to Rebuild the Democratic Party” [The New Republic] More

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      Why Ciaterrelli Refuses to Concede NJ Governor's Race

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      Gov. Phil Murphy’s Republican opponent, Jack Ciattarelli, was trailing by about 65,500 votes. He is waiting for 70,000 provisional ballots to be counted.Hours after polls closed in the unexpectedly tight race for New Jersey governor, the Democratic incumbent, Philip D. Murphy, and his Republican challenger, Jack Ciattarelli, took the stages at their campaign parties and said it would take more time for the results to be finalized.A new system of voting, which utilized electronic poll books and did not permit the more than half-million mail-in ballots to be tallied until Election Day, had bogged down the count.Six days later, Mr. Ciattarelli, who trails Mr. Murphy by about 65,500 votes, or about 2.6 percentage points, according to The Associated Press, has yet to concede — even though The A.P. has declared Mr. Murphy the winner.Mr. Ciattarelli’s campaign stressed that there was no evidence of fraud, and he has warned his Republican supporters against “falling victim to wild conspiracy theories or online rumors.” Officials with Mr. Ciattarelli’s campaign said on Monday that they were waiting until all mail and provisional ballots were counted, a process they expected to be completed within two days.Still, that has not stopped Mr. Murphy’s campaign from criticizing Mr. Ciattarelli.“Assemblyman Ciattarelli is mathematically eliminated, and he must accept the results and concede the race,” Mr. Murphy’s campaign manager, Mollie Binotto, said Monday in a statement. “His continuing failure to do so is an assault on the integrity of our elections.”An election lawyer for the Ciattarelli campaign, Mark Sheridan, acknowledged that it was unlikely for Mr. Ciattarelli to pull ahead in the vote count. But he said it was possible Mr. Ciattarelli could come within 1 point of Mr. Murphy — the threshold at which he said it would be prudent to ask a judge for permission to conduct a recount.At the same time, Mr. Sheridan sought to distance Mr. Ciattarelli from former President Donald J. Trump’s postelection “stop the steal” strategy that made disproved claims of voting fraud and led to the deadly Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol.“We’re not hearing any credible accounts of fraud or malfeasance,” Mr. Sheridan said.“I’m not looking to be Rudy Giuliani standing in front of a mulch pile,” he added, referring to Mr. Trump’s lawyer, the former mayor of New York, who had his law license temporarily suspended after a court ruled that he made “demonstrably false and misleading statements” while fighting the results of the 2020 election.But Mr. Sheridan did stress that it was important for “every vote to be counted.”Despite the likelihood that Mr. Murphy will win a second term, the narrow margin has been a jolt to Democrats and suggested that they will face a steep climb to try to retain their hold on Congress in next year’s midterm elections.The governor’s race was one of several where candidates were waiting to concede until after the results were finalized.New Jersey’s second most powerful lawmaker, Steve Sweeney, who lost his State Senate seat to a relatively unknown Republican candidate, Edward Durr, had not conceded the race as of Monday afternoon. The Associated Press called the race on Thursday morning, as Mr. Durr maintained a 2,298-vote lead over Mr. Sweeney with all precincts counted, and by the weekend it had become a punchline on “Saturday Night Live” and “Last Week Tonight With John Oliver.”.css-1xzcza9{list-style-type:disc;padding-inline-start:1em;}.css-3btd0c{font-family:nyt-franklin,helvetica,arial,sans-serif;font-size:1rem;line-height:1.375rem;color:#333;margin-bottom:0.78125rem;}@media (min-width:740px){.css-3btd0c{font-size:1.0625rem;line-height:1.5rem;margin-bottom:0.9375rem;}}.css-3btd0c strong{font-weight:600;}.css-3btd0c em{font-style:italic;}.css-1kpebx{margin:0 auto;font-family:nyt-franklin,helvetica,arial,sans-serif;font-weight:700;font-size:1.125rem;line-height:1.3125rem;color:#121212;}#NYT_BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT_REGION .css-1kpebx{font-family:nyt-cheltenham,georgia,’times new roman’,times,serif;font-weight:700;font-size:1.375rem;line-height:1.625rem;}@media (min-width:740px){#NYT_BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT_REGION .css-1kpebx{font-size:1.6875rem;line-height:1.875rem;}}@media (min-width:740px){.css-1kpebx{font-size:1.25rem;line-height:1.4375rem;}}.css-1gtxqqv{margin-bottom:0;}.css-19zsuqr{display:block;margin-bottom:0.9375rem;}.css-12vbvwq{background-color:white;border:1px solid #e2e2e2;width:calc(100% – 40px);max-width:600px;margin:1.5rem auto 1.9rem;padding:15px;box-sizing:border-box;}@media (min-width:740px){.css-12vbvwq{padding:20px;width:100%;}}.css-12vbvwq:focus{outline:1px solid #e2e2e2;}#NYT_BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT_REGION .css-12vbvwq{border:none;padding:10px 0 0;border-top:2px solid #121212;}.css-12vbvwq[data-truncated] .css-rdoyk0{-webkit-transform:rotate(0deg);-ms-transform:rotate(0deg);transform:rotate(0deg);}.css-12vbvwq[data-truncated] .css-eb027h{max-height:300px;overflow:hidden;-webkit-transition:none;transition:none;}.css-12vbvwq[data-truncated] .css-5gimkt:after{content:’See more’;}.css-12vbvwq[data-truncated] .css-6mllg9{opacity:1;}.css-qjk116{margin:0 auto;overflow:hidden;}.css-qjk116 strong{font-weight:700;}.css-qjk116 em{font-style:italic;}.css-qjk116 a{color:#326891;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;text-underline-offset:1px;-webkit-text-decoration-thickness:1px;text-decoration-thickness:1px;-webkit-text-decoration-color:#326891;text-decoration-color:#326891;}.css-qjk116 a:visited{color:#326891;-webkit-text-decoration-color:#326891;text-decoration-color:#326891;}.css-qjk116 a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}On Sunday, Mr. Trump called Mr. Durr and encouraged him to “have fun with it,” according to a clip of the call posted on Facebook.At the heart of the delays were election technology used for the first time in New Jersey, enabling voters to cast ballots early, in person, over nine days.The system used poll books that required an internet connection; in some cases, poll workers were confused by the new process. (At one polling location, for example, workers had not turned on the Wi-Fi router, an election lawyer said.)Boards of election across the state also struggled to hire enough people to oversee Election Day voting, leading the state to offer an extra $100 to entice workers.A spokeswoman for the secretary of state has maintained that the problems were not widespread, but they did lead to long lines at some polling sites, creating frustration that spilled out on Twitter. It also prompted a last-minute effort by the American Civil Liberties Union of New Jersey and the state’s League of Women Voters to extend voting hours on Tuesday by 90 minutes. A judge rejected their request.“There’s not been one suggestion of any hint of a fraud problem,” said Micah Rasmussen, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University. “What’s going on is a really agonizingly slow count.”Takeaways From the 2021 ElectionsCard 1 of 5A G.O.P. pathway in Virginia. More

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      It’s not all about the culture war – Democrats helped shaft the working class | Robert Reich

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      OpinionUS politicsIt’s not all about the culture war – Democrats helped shaft the working classRobert ReichResults in Virginia and New Jersey do not make Republican dog-whistle politics the future. The left must do more to help Sun 7 Nov 2021 01.00 EDTLast modified on Sun 7 Nov 2021 01.03 EDTAfter Tuesday’s Democratic loss in the Virginia gubernatorial election and near-loss in New Jersey, I’m hearing a narrative about Democrats’ failure with white working-class voters that is fundamentally wrong.Is this a presidency-defining week for Biden? Politics Weekly Extra – podcastRead moreIn Thursday’s New York Times, David Leonhardt pointed out that the non-college voters who are abandoning the Democratic party “tend to be more religious, more outwardly patriotic and more culturally conservative than college graduates”. He then quotes a fellow Times columnist, the pollster Nate Cohn, who says “college graduates have instilled increasingly liberal cultural norms while gaining the power to nudge the Democratic party to the left. Partly as a result, large portions of the party’s traditional working-class base have defected to the Republicans”.Leonhardt adds that these defections have increased over the past decade and suggests Democratic candidates start listening to working-class voters’ concerns about “crime and political correctness”, their “mixed feelings about immigration and abortion laws”, and their beliefs “in God and in a strong America”.This narrative worries me in two ways. First, if “cultural” messages top economic ones, what’s to stop Democrats from playing the same cultural card Republicans have used for years to inflame the white working class: racism? Make no mistake: Glenn Youngkin focused his campaign in Virginia on critical race theory, which isn’t even taught in Virginia’s schools but comes out of the same disgraceful Republican dog-whistle tradition.The other problem with this “culture over economics” narrative is it overlooks the fact that after Ronald Reagan, the Democratic party turned its back on the working class.During the first terms of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, Democrats controlled both houses of Congress. They scored some important victories, such as the Affordable Care Act and an expanded earned income tax credit.But both Clinton and Obama allowed the power of the working class to erode. Both ardently pushed for free trade agreements without providing the millions of blue-collar workers who thereby lost their jobs any means of getting new ones that paid at least as well.They stood by as corporations hammered trade unions, the backbone of the working class. Both refused to reform labor laws to impose meaningful penalties on companies that violated them or enable workers to form unions with simple up-or-down votes. Union membership sank from 22% of all workers when Clinton was elected to fewer than 11% today, denying the working class the bargaining leverage it needs to get a better deal.The Obama administration protected Wall Street from the consequences of its gambling addiction through a giant taxpayer-funded bailout but let millions of underwater homeowners drown.Both Clinton and Obama allowed antitrust to ossify – allowing major industries to become more concentrated and hence more economically and politically powerful.Finally, they turned their backs on campaign finance reform. In 2008, Obama was the first presidential nominee since Richard Nixon to reject public financing in his primary and general-election campaigns. He never followed up on his re-election campaign promise to pursue a constitutional amendment overturning Citizens United v FEC, the 2010 supreme court opinion that opened the floodgates to big money in politics.What happens when you combine freer trade, shrinking unions, Wall Street bailouts, growing corporate power and the abandonment of campaign finance reform? You shift political and economic power to the wealthy and you shaft the working class.Adjusted for inflation, American workers today are earning almost as little as they did 30 years ago, when the American economy was a third its present size.Biden’s agenda for working people – including lower prescription drug prices, paid family leave, stronger unions and free community college – has followed the same sad trajectory, due to the power of big money. Big Pharma has blocked prescription drug reform. A handful of Democratic senators backed by big money have refused to support paid family leave. Big money has killed labor law reform.Resilience: the one word progressives need in the face of Trump, Covid and more | Robert ReichRead moreDemocrats could win back the white working class by putting together a large coalition of the working class and poor, of whites, Blacks and Latinos, of everyone who has been shafted by the huge shift in wealth and power to the top. This would give Democrats the political clout to reallocate power in the economy – rather than merely enact palliatives that paper over the increasing concentration of power at the top.But to do this Democrats would have to end their financial dependence on big corporations, Wall Street and the wealthy. And they would have to reject the convenient story that American workers care more about cultural issues than about getting a better deal in an economy that’s been delivering them a worsening deal for decades.
      Robert Reich, a former US secretary of labor, is professor of public policy at the University of California at Berkeley and the author of Saving Capitalism: For the Many, Not the Few and The Common Good. His new book, The System: Who Rigged It, How We Fix It, is out now. He is a Guardian US columnist. His newsletter is at robertreich.substack.com
      TopicsUS politicsOpinionDemocratsUS CongressVirginiaNew JerseyRaceUS domestic policycommentReuse this content More

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      New York Becomes Marathon City Once Again

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      It’s Friday. We’ll look at the New York City Marathon, which will celebrate its 50th running this weekend with an expected 30,000 people on the starting line. We’ll also look at the continuing fallout from Election Day in New York and New Jersey.Runners in the Bronx during the last New York City Marathon, in 2019. Karsten Moran for The New York TimesThe New York Marathon started as four laps in Central Park, which in 1970 was “hardly the pastoral jewel that New Yorkers now know and love,” recalls George Hirsch, a founder of the five-borough marathon and the chairman of New York Road Runners. He remembers that the park “was marred by rampant vandalism, drugs were sold openly at Bethesda Fountain and graffiti defaced most of its buildings.” He says the 127 original starters established an important theme, revival and resilience.Revival and resilience will be on the runners’ minds on Sunday, according to my colleague Michael Gold, one of the 30,000 entrants. No matter what happens along the way, it is already clear that the marathon will be an important moment in the city’s long recovery from the pandemic, with officials eager to prove that New York remains vibrant and ready to welcome back guests — and their dollars.This year’s field is smaller, with only 30,000 competitors, down from roughly 55,000 in the past. To cut down on crowding in the early minutes on the way to the Verrazzano-Narrows Bridge and elsewhere along the 26.2-mile course, the runners will be grouped in five waves. The intervals separating their starts will be longer than before.The city’s Landmarks Preservation Commission celebrated the 50th running of the marathon by creating an interactive map of landmarks the runners will see, but don’t look for some big-name competitors in the race. Some of the top distance runners went elsewhere after three major spring marathons were postponed until fall, packing six major races into six weeks. (One, in Tokyo, was ultimately called off.)One result? Joyciline Jepkosgei chose London over New York, where she would have defended the championship she won in 2019. She won in London.As for Michael, he ran a lot during the pandemic, when the gyms were closed. “I had been running smaller races, and I was supposed to run my second-ever half-marathon on March 15, 2020,” he said. “You can guess how that went.”The race on Sunday will be his first marathon. I kidded him about whether he runs faster than he writes or writes faster than he runs. We’ll find out on Sunday, won’t we? “I’m hoping to finish this thing in four hours,” he told me, though he modestly called that “optimistic.”WeatherPrepare to welcome the weekend with a sunny day in the 50s. At night, temps will drop to the high 30s.alternate-side parkingIn effect until Nov. 11 (Veterans Day).CITY COUNCILExpected firsts and some surprisesHolly Pickett for The New York TimesBefore Election Day, the expectation was that women would outnumber men on the next New York City Council.That was not expected to be the only first. It was also widely thought that Council seats would go to the first Korean American members, the first Muslim woman and the first out L.G.B.T.Q. Black women on Election Day.Most of that happened on Tuesday, but not exactly as anticipated.At least two of the women newly elected to the Council were Republicans — part of a trend that saw the G.O.P. gain seats for the first time since 2009. Though Democrats cruised to victories in the vast majority of races, Republicans retained the three City Council seats they had held, including one that Democrats had hoped to flip. They also picked up a fourth.[N.Y. City Council Sees Historic Changes, and Republicans Gain Ground]And in two races where incumbent Democrats ran cross-party support, they received more votes on the Republican line than on the Democratic one.Strategists from both parties said that where Council races were competitive, voters were concerned about public safety, a centerpiece of Mayor-elect Eric Adams’s campaign as the Democratic candidate. Frustration over pandemic guidelines and vaccine mandates also figured in voters’ choices in Council races, strategists said. So did alienation from the Democratic Party among voters who feel progressives have left them out.“There is a lack of a clear message of what the Democratic Party stands for,” said Kenneth Sherrill, a professor emeritus of political science at Hunter College..css-1xzcza9{list-style-type:disc;padding-inline-start:1em;}.css-3btd0c{font-family:nyt-franklin,helvetica,arial,sans-serif;font-size:1rem;line-height:1.375rem;color:#333;margin-bottom:0.78125rem;}@media (min-width:740px){.css-3btd0c{font-size:1.0625rem;line-height:1.5rem;margin-bottom:0.9375rem;}}.css-3btd0c strong{font-weight:600;}.css-3btd0c em{font-style:italic;}.css-1kpebx{margin:0 auto;font-family:nyt-franklin,helvetica,arial,sans-serif;font-weight:700;font-size:1.125rem;line-height:1.3125rem;color:#121212;}#NYT_BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT_REGION .css-1kpebx{font-family:nyt-cheltenham,georgia,’times new roman’,times,serif;font-weight:700;font-size:1.375rem;line-height:1.625rem;}@media (min-width:740px){#NYT_BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT_REGION .css-1kpebx{font-size:1.6875rem;line-height:1.875rem;}}@media (min-width:740px){.css-1kpebx{font-size:1.25rem;line-height:1.4375rem;}}.css-1gtxqqv{margin-bottom:0;}.css-19zsuqr{display:block;margin-bottom:0.9375rem;}.css-12vbvwq{background-color:white;border:1px solid #e2e2e2;width:calc(100% – 40px);max-width:600px;margin:1.5rem auto 1.9rem;padding:15px;box-sizing:border-box;}@media (min-width:740px){.css-12vbvwq{padding:20px;width:100%;}}.css-12vbvwq:focus{outline:1px solid #e2e2e2;}#NYT_BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT_REGION .css-12vbvwq{border:none;padding:10px 0 0;border-top:2px solid #121212;}.css-12vbvwq[data-truncated] .css-rdoyk0{-webkit-transform:rotate(0deg);-ms-transform:rotate(0deg);transform:rotate(0deg);}.css-12vbvwq[data-truncated] .css-eb027h{max-height:300px;overflow:hidden;-webkit-transition:none;transition:none;}.css-12vbvwq[data-truncated] .css-5gimkt:after{content:’See more’;}.css-12vbvwq[data-truncated] .css-6mllg9{opacity:1;}.css-qjk116{margin:0 auto;overflow:hidden;}.css-qjk116 strong{font-weight:700;}.css-qjk116 em{font-style:italic;}.css-qjk116 a{color:#326891;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;text-underline-offset:1px;-webkit-text-decoration-thickness:1px;text-decoration-thickness:1px;-webkit-text-decoration-color:#326891;text-decoration-color:#326891;}.css-qjk116 a:visited{color:#326891;-webkit-text-decoration-color:#326891;text-decoration-color:#326891;}.css-qjk116 a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}The Council will have a new speaker. The current speaker, Corey Johnson, could not seek another term representing his Manhattan district because of term limits.One potential contender to succeed him — Councilman Justin Brannan, pictured above, a Democrat whose Brooklyn district covers Bath Beach, Bay Ridge, Bensonhurst and Dyker Heights — is in a race that had not been called by late Thursday. On election night he was 255 votes behind Brian Fox, a Republican who opposed vaccine mandates. Some 1,456 absentee ballots remain to be counted, about 1,000 from registered Democrats.NEW JERSEYPowerful Senate president loses to a newcomerStephen M. Sweeney, the New Jersey State Senate president and a Democrat, lost his re-election bid on Tuesday.The Press of Atlantic City, via Associated PressStephen Sweeney has been the second most powerful lawmaker in New Jersey.His status will change in January. He will no longer be the president of the State Senate — or even a senator.Sweeney, a Democrat, lost his re-election campaign to Edward Durr, a Republican who is a truck driver for the Raymour & Flanagan furniture chain. Durr, who ran for the Assembly in 2017 and 2019 and lost both times, led by 2,298 votes when The Associated Press called the race on Thursday.[Stephen Sweeney, N.J. Senate President, Loses to Republican Truck Driver]The outcome in Sweeney’s race — coupled with Gov. Philip Murphy’s surprisingly narrow win — set off a political upheaval in Trenton. Sweeney’s defeat created a vacuum in the State Legislature, where Sweeney had held the agenda-setting post of senate president for nearly 12 years.He and Durr could hardly have been more different as candidates. Durr’s campaign video was shot on a smartphone. He told news outlets that he had spent $153 on the race, although financial disclosure reports put his total at roughly $2,200. And he had to defer celebrating his surprise win because when his victory was announced he was out driving his truck.Sweeney had unyielding support from the influential building trade unions. But running as an incumbent Democrat when voters were angry about coronavirus restrictions and dysfunction in Washington was enough to erode his once solid standing.The latest New York newsA New York law that imposes strict limits on carrying guns outside the home seemed unlikely to survive its encounter with the Supreme Court.After staging a hunger strike, New York cabbies won millions more in aid.What we’re readingHe is known as Disco. He has been a bouncer for 25 years. Grub Street spent the evening with him working the doors.Annie Leibovitz’s new book is an anthology of fashion images. But she says she is not a fashion photographer.What we’re watching now: Dana Rubinstein, a Metro reporter, will discuss the state of New York politics — from the mayor-elect’s agenda to the forthcoming governor’s race — on “The New York Times Close Up With Sam Roberts.” The show airs on Friday at 8 p.m., Saturday at 1:30 p.m. and Sunday at 12:30 p.m. [CUNY TV]METROPOLITAN diaryLike toy figuresDear Diary:My husband and I were on the 14th floor of a building at York Avenue and East 74th Street waiting for a medical appointment.The place was beautifully furnished and had drop-dead views of the East River. We took a pair of comfy chairs at the south-facing window, looking down onto the F.D.R. Drive and the esplanade.The river was surging and traffic on the drive was humming, but the esplanade seemed strangely quiet for a summer afternoon. There was not a runner or a cyclist to be seen, only two figures lingering in the shade of a clump of trees. One was in a wheelchair; the other was on a nearby bench. They looked very still, like toy figures.As we watched, they began to come to life. The person in the wheelchair rolled forward. The person on the bench stood up, then bent down to adjust something.Was it a hoverboard? It was a hoverboard!The person on the hoverboard began to push the person in the wheelchair. They headed off down the esplanade together, gathering steam.We watched them glide away, then sat back down.— Jane ScottIllustrated by Agnes Lee. Send submissions here and read more Metropolitan Diary here.Glad we could get together here. See you tomorrow. — J.B.P.S. Here’s today’s Mini Crossword and Spelling Bee. You can find all our puzzles here.Melissa Guerrero, Rick Martinez and Olivia Parker contributed to New York Today. You can reach the team at nytoday@nytimes.com.Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. More

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      Will Murphy Turn to the Center After Barely Winning Re-Election in N.J.?

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      The Democratic governor won re-election in a surprisingly close race that has raised questions about his ability to enact liberal measures on gun control and abortion.For much of his first term, Gov. Philip D. Murphy of New Jersey governed his largely suburban state as a steadfast liberal, winning an increase in the minimum wage, a tax hike on the wealthy and the legalization of marijuana.But when he ran for re-election this year on that unabashedly left-leaning record, Mr. Murphy, a Democrat who just weeks ago seemed destined for an easy victory, came surprisingly close to losing to a conservative Republican, Jack Ciattarelli.Mr. Murphy’s narrow victory, combined with a Republican upset in the Virginia governor’s race and Republican gains in the New Jersey State Legislature, suggest the nation’s political winds may have shifted rightward. And that has raised a major question in Trenton: Will Mr. Murphy still push forward with liberal initiatives on issues like abortion and gun control, as he had once planned?Republicans and even some Democrats say a left-leaning agenda will face stiff opposition, predicting that Mr. Murphy and Democratic legislators will become increasingly mindful of independent suburban voters whose party loyalty is famously fluid and whose political ideology tends toward the center.The key to courting those voters will be to focus on “affordability,” some officials say, in particular, containing the state’s property taxes, which are among the nation’s highest.“This is not that complicated,” said Assemblyman Jon M. Bramnick, a Republican who was elected Tuesday to the State Senate. “Most people are kind of in the middle.”But where moderates may see the need for a course correction and heightened attention to issues like the cost of living and safe streets, Mr. Murphy’s progressive allies speak mainly of opportunity.On Tuesday, voters in South Jersey ousted the state’s second most powerful lawmaker, the Senate president, Steve Sweeney, a Democrat who was also Mr. Murphy’s main political rival. Mr. Sweeney’s loss simultaneously created an unexpected power vacuum in the State House and eroded the influence of the most conservative region of the state — without making a significant dent in the Democrats’ majority in Trenton.That could clear an easier pathway for the governor’s unfinished legislative priorities, some analysts and legislators say. Despite losing some seats, Democrats will still control both houses of the Legislature.“Politically, it’s an incredible opportunity for Murphy,” said Julia Sass Rubin, a professor at the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University. “Sweeney keeping his seat and Murphy winning by 10 would be nowhere near as good.”Still, the day after the election, few Democrats were talking much about Mr. Murphy’s most contentious policy goals: codifying abortion rights to protect against the possibility of a Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade; expanding gun control laws to allow victims to sue gun manufacturers; reducing long mandatory sentences for nonviolent crimes.“We’re going to obviously revisit what we’ve been doing,” said Senator Nick Scutari, a Democrat from northern New Jersey who led the fight to legalize marijuana in the state and is seen as a contender to become the next Senate president.Mr. Scutari, a former municipal prosecutor in Linden, N.J., said he expected more discussion about “kitchen table issues.”“Making sure there’s a strong economy,” he said. “Good strong job prospects. Making sure the taxes are stable and we do provide services because of those taxes.”.css-1xzcza9{list-style-type:disc;padding-inline-start:1em;}.css-3btd0c{font-family:nyt-franklin,helvetica,arial,sans-serif;font-size:1rem;line-height:1.375rem;color:#333;margin-bottom:0.78125rem;}@media (min-width:740px){.css-3btd0c{font-size:1.0625rem;line-height:1.5rem;margin-bottom:0.9375rem;}}.css-3btd0c strong{font-weight:600;}.css-3btd0c em{font-style:italic;}.css-1kpebx{margin:0 auto;font-family:nyt-franklin,helvetica,arial,sans-serif;font-weight:700;font-size:1.125rem;line-height:1.3125rem;color:#121212;}#NYT_BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT_REGION .css-1kpebx{font-family:nyt-cheltenham,georgia,’times new roman’,times,serif;font-weight:700;font-size:1.375rem;line-height:1.625rem;}@media (min-width:740px){#NYT_BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT_REGION .css-1kpebx{font-size:1.6875rem;line-height:1.875rem;}}@media (min-width:740px){.css-1kpebx{font-size:1.25rem;line-height:1.4375rem;}}.css-1gtxqqv{margin-bottom:0;}.css-19zsuqr{display:block;margin-bottom:0.9375rem;}.css-12vbvwq{background-color:white;border:1px solid #e2e2e2;width:calc(100% – 40px);max-width:600px;margin:1.5rem auto 1.9rem;padding:15px;box-sizing:border-box;}@media (min-width:740px){.css-12vbvwq{padding:20px;width:100%;}}.css-12vbvwq:focus{outline:1px solid #e2e2e2;}#NYT_BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT_REGION .css-12vbvwq{border:none;padding:10px 0 0;border-top:2px solid #121212;}.css-12vbvwq[data-truncated] .css-rdoyk0{-webkit-transform:rotate(0deg);-ms-transform:rotate(0deg);transform:rotate(0deg);}.css-12vbvwq[data-truncated] .css-eb027h{max-height:300px;overflow:hidden;-webkit-transition:none;transition:none;}.css-12vbvwq[data-truncated] .css-5gimkt:after{content:’See more’;}.css-12vbvwq[data-truncated] .css-6mllg9{opacity:1;}.css-qjk116{margin:0 auto;overflow:hidden;}.css-qjk116 strong{font-weight:700;}.css-qjk116 em{font-style:italic;}.css-qjk116 a{color:#326891;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;text-underline-offset:1px;-webkit-text-decoration-thickness:1px;text-decoration-thickness:1px;-webkit-text-decoration-color:#326891;text-decoration-color:#326891;}.css-qjk116 a:visited{color:#326891;-webkit-text-decoration-color:#326891;text-decoration-color:#326891;}.css-qjk116 a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}George E. Norcross, an insurance executive and powerful Democratic power broker strongly allied with Mr. Sweeney, said the most potent issue in New Jersey has always been taxes.“If you look at New Jersey history from a political way, you see Democrats and Republicans alternating as governors, and it always happens over the same issue, which is taxes,” Mr. Norcross said. “It’s taxes, taxes, taxes. And people move back and forth between parties in that regard, and that’s the way in which it historically has happened.”George Helmy, Mr. Murphy’s chief of staff, said the governor’s economic agenda had always been rooted in making life more affordable for working families.But he said he anticipated the party “wanting to focus more” on bread-and-butter economic issues, as well as better communicating the benefits of Mr. Murphy’s progressive policies for working-class families.“I think we need to continue to focus on the affordability picture and the progress we’ve made for working families,” he said.“People need to hear that message more,” he added. “We have to be more focused on speaking to what we have delivered for working families and the bold vision going forward.”On Thursday, Mr. Murphy spoke at a convention in Atlantic City, N.J., organized by one of his strongest allies, the New Jersey Education Association.Takeaways From the 2021 ElectionsCard 1 of 5A G.O.P. pathway in Virginia. More

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      Republican Truck Driver Beats Sweeney in N.J. Election

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      Mr. Sweeney, the second most powerful lawmaker in New Jersey and a Democrat, lost his bid for re-election to Edward Durr, a driver for a furniture chain.For nearly a decade, Stephen M. Sweeney, the second most powerful lawmaker in New Jersey, seemed truly unassailable. He boasted deep ties to the most feared political power broker in the state and unyielding support from the influential building trade unions. Four years ago, the state’s teachers’ union spent more than $5 million to unseat him. He won by 18 points.This year, his challenger was Edward Durr, a truck driver for Raymour & Flanigan, a furniture chain, who had never before held office. His campaign video was shot on a smartphone.Yet Mr. Sweeney, the State Senate president and a Democrat, was ousted in a shocking political upset by Mr. Durr, a Republican, as voters opted for a political unknown in a result that immediately rattled the political moorings of the state. Voters also nearly ousted Gov. Philip D. Murphy; the governor narrowly won re-election over his Republican challenger, Jack Ciattarelli, leading by 1.6 percentage points.But it was Mr. Sweeney’s loss that was perhaps best emblematic of the predicament facing Democrats in suburban, exurban and rural communities.The Associated Press called the race on Thursday morning, as Mr. Durr maintained a 2,298-vote lead over Mr. Sweeney with all precincts counted.Though Mr. Sweeney’s district in the southwestern part of the state has never been deeply blue like the northeastern counties, it has reliably elected a Democrat since its creation in 1973, save for one year when the Democratic incumbent switched parties.Mr. Sweeney held a vise grip on the district, largely composed of blue-collar suburbs just south of Camden and poorer, rural areas, thanks to powerful allies and a decidedly moderate record, playing up his background as an ironworker and union leader.But as support for Democrats eroded in the suburbs and evaporated in rural areas in both New Jersey and Virginia, Mr. Sweeney found himself facing a surge in Republican voters and a loss in support from the working-class backing he had so often relied on; being a Democratic lawmaker during an era of coronavirus lockdowns, mandates in schools and dysfunction in Washington was enough to erode what was once unshakable backing.In Gloucester County, Catherine Biasiello, 70, said she is a registered Democrat who voted for Mr. Durr because she is unhappy with the state’s high tax rate, and because she disapproves of the state’s closure of public schools during the pandemic.Ms Biasiello, 70, who lives in West Deptford, said Mr. Sweeney “could have stepped up” to oppose the school shutdowns but did not. “He could have influenced the governor,” she said.Mr. Sweeney’s loss amounts to a seismic restructuring of political power and influence, leaving a substantial vacuum in the State Legislature; he had held the post of senate president, with the ability to set the legislative agenda, for nearly 12 years.In the Trump era, Republicans were seen as doomed to a permanent minority in New Jersey, as voters’ deep contempt for the former president was strong enough to turn the long-held Republican suburbs blue; Democrats flipped four House seats in the 2018 midterm elections.But the surprising defeat of Mr. Sweeney, coupled with Mr. Murphy’s slim margin of victory and unexpectedly tight races involving popular rising Democratic stars in the state like Vin Gopal, a state senator from Monmouth County, reveals a Republican Party that seems to be marching back to relevance..css-1xzcza9{list-style-type:disc;padding-inline-start:1em;}.css-3btd0c{font-family:nyt-franklin,helvetica,arial,sans-serif;font-size:1rem;line-height:1.375rem;color:#333;margin-bottom:0.78125rem;}@media (min-width:740px){.css-3btd0c{font-size:1.0625rem;line-height:1.5rem;margin-bottom:0.9375rem;}}.css-3btd0c strong{font-weight:600;}.css-3btd0c em{font-style:italic;}.css-1kpebx{margin:0 auto;font-family:nyt-franklin,helvetica,arial,sans-serif;font-weight:700;font-size:1.125rem;line-height:1.3125rem;color:#121212;}#NYT_BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT_REGION .css-1kpebx{font-family:nyt-cheltenham,georgia,’times new roman’,times,serif;font-weight:700;font-size:1.375rem;line-height:1.625rem;}@media (min-width:740px){#NYT_BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT_REGION .css-1kpebx{font-size:1.6875rem;line-height:1.875rem;}}@media (min-width:740px){.css-1kpebx{font-size:1.25rem;line-height:1.4375rem;}}.css-1gtxqqv{margin-bottom:0;}.css-19zsuqr{display:block;margin-bottom:0.9375rem;}.css-12vbvwq{background-color:white;border:1px solid #e2e2e2;width:calc(100% – 40px);max-width:600px;margin:1.5rem auto 1.9rem;padding:15px;box-sizing:border-box;}@media (min-width:740px){.css-12vbvwq{padding:20px;width:100%;}}.css-12vbvwq:focus{outline:1px solid #e2e2e2;}#NYT_BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT_REGION .css-12vbvwq{border:none;padding:10px 0 0;border-top:2px solid #121212;}.css-12vbvwq[data-truncated] .css-rdoyk0{-webkit-transform:rotate(0deg);-ms-transform:rotate(0deg);transform:rotate(0deg);}.css-12vbvwq[data-truncated] .css-eb027h{max-height:300px;overflow:hidden;-webkit-transition:none;transition:none;}.css-12vbvwq[data-truncated] .css-5gimkt:after{content:’See more’;}.css-12vbvwq[data-truncated] .css-6mllg9{opacity:1;}.css-qjk116{margin:0 auto;overflow:hidden;}.css-qjk116 strong{font-weight:700;}.css-qjk116 em{font-style:italic;}.css-qjk116 a{color:#326891;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;text-underline-offset:1px;-webkit-text-decoration-thickness:1px;text-decoration-thickness:1px;-webkit-text-decoration-color:#326891;text-decoration-color:#326891;}.css-qjk116 a:visited{color:#326891;-webkit-text-decoration-color:#326891;text-decoration-color:#326891;}.css-qjk116 a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}Mr. Ciattarelli’s efforts and spending led the way, allowing lesser candidates like Mr. Durr, who lives in a house next to his mother in southern New Jersey, to gather momentum.Mr. Durr told news outlets that he had spent $153 on his campaign, but financial disclosure reports indicate he spent roughly $2,200 on his race. His meager campaign included the 80-second campaign video, where he accentuated his working-class roots with an opening scene of his stepping down from his truck cab, and ending with his riding away on a motorcycle. His victory was announced on the same day Mr. Durr was on a shift driving his truck.With barely any attention given to the race, Mr. Durr remained largely unvetted and unknown to the general public. On Thursday, old posts on social media by the candidate began circulating, including one reflecting support for “both sides” of the violent racist rally in Charlottesville, Va., in 2017 and another condemning Islam and disparaging the Prophet Muhammad.Mr. Durr did not respond to several requests for an interview. But in an impromptu news conference outside of his house on Thursday, Mr. Durr nodded to an electorate he saw as angry.“It didn’t happen because of me,” he said. “I’m nobody. I’m absolutely nobody. I’m just a simple guy. It was the people. It was a repudiation of the policies that have been forced down their throats.”Mr. Durr then took his three pit bulls on a walk.His campaign, which largely consisted of his video, lawn signs and door knocking, projected more grievance than platforms, taking issue with the coronavirus policies of Mr. Murphy and claiming Mr. Sweeney “sat by and watched.” He also focused on the state’s high cost of living.“The Senate president has spent 20 years in Trenton: higher taxes, increasing debt, and a rising cost of living,” Mr. Durr says in his video.Mr. Sweeney, in a statement released on Thursday, did not concede.“The results from Tuesday’s election continue to come in, for instance there were 12,000 ballots recently found in one county,” Mr. Sweeney said. “While I am currently trailing in the race, we want to make sure every vote is counted. Our voters deserve that, and we will wait for the final results.”Democrats, of course, still maintain single-party control over the entire state government, but Mr. Sweeney’s loss nonetheless shocked the forces that have long controlled Trenton.Rarely did a governor’s priority reach the floor without Mr. Sweeney’s approval.In the first two years of Mr. Murphy’s term, before the pandemic settled in, Mr. Sweeney served as an obstacle to the governor’s expansive progressive agenda, further burnishing his moderate Democratic bona fides by pushing back on increases in budget spending and a plan to tax the wealthy. While Mr. Murphy was largely able to come to an agreement with Mr. Sweeney and enact his agenda, the Senate president was often the most powerful counter force in a state controlled by Democrats.“He was able to impose his will on legislation,” said Joe Vitale, a Democratic state senator. “He was a force of nature. So it will be a loss for those of us who respect him and support him.”Mr. Sweeney was closely allied with George E. Norcross, an insurance executive and powerful power broker whose stranglehold on southern New Jersey politics lead many to see him as a shadow governor. The two remained close during both Mr. Murphy’s administration and former Gov. Chris Christie’s eight years. Without Mr. Sweeney at the helm of the Senate, and with other Democratic losses in the southern part of the state, Mr. Norcross may no longer possess the ironclad control to shape state policy, though he still counts numerous legislators as allies.In an interview, Mr. Norcross described Mr. Sweeney as “the Lyndon Johnson of the State Legislature” who “brought order to the chaos.” He said the sudden swelling of Republican turnout and independents’ anger “happened with such warp speed, that there was nothing that could have been anticipated or done, because it’s not like we didn’t have the money available to do it.”He added that the Democratic Party will need to change, both in the state and around the country, to win back voters.“The Democratic Party is going to have to, and candidates for office are going to have to, redefine themselves as fiscally responsible legislators and ones that are going to spend government money wisely and not recklessly as is portrayed,” Mr. Norcross said. “They can’t be defined as wanting to defund police or socialist.”Mr. Sweeney’s loss sets up a wide open race for his successor. Nicholas Scutari, a Democratic state senator from northern New Jersey, is seen as a possible candidate to replace Mr. Sweeney in the senate leadership. Troy Singleton, a Democratic state senator from southern New Jersey, also has been mentioned as a possible replacement, among many other candidates.Ed Dobzanski, 56, a union truck driver from Gibbstown, N.J., said he voted for Mr. Sweeney because of the Senate president’s long support for trade unions, but he thought his rival’s victory reflects a public desire for change.“I think this is a backlash of the same people being in the same positions a long time,” he said. “People just wanted change, they are tired of career politicians.”Jon Hurdle contributed reporting from West Deptford Township, N.J. More