N.Y.C. Mayor’s Race: Could the Top 3 Change Places?
[Want to get New York Today by email? Here’s the sign-up.]It’s Thursday. Weather: Mostly sunny, with a high in the upper 70s. Alternate-side parking: In effect until July 4 (Independence Day). James Estrin/The New York Times and Earl Wilson/The New York TimesIt’s almost time for the ranked-choice process to play out.After Primary Day voting for Democratic candidates in the race for mayor, Eric Adams has a roughly nine-point lead over the second-place Maya Wiley, and stands about 12 points ahead of Kathryn Garcia. But with no candidate poised to reach 50 percent of first-place votes, New Yorkers’ ranked selections will come into play.The standings could still change. But overcoming Mr. Adams’s commanding lead would be tough.[Read more from my colleague Andy Newman on how the race could shake out.]Here’s what to know:Ms. Wiley and Ms. Garcia still have a path — a challenging one.If Ms. Wiley makes it to the final round of the ranked-choice playoff process and is ranked ahead of Mr. Adams on about 60 percent of all ballots where neither is ranked first, she could be victorious.Ms. Garcia would need to do the same by a few percentage points more to win.Those scenarios are not especially likely. Mr. Adams’s popularity among voters who did not rank him first would need to be particularly low, and at least one poll before Primary Day suggested that was not the case.Wait, what about the uncounted ballots?Many first-round votes still have not been tallied: in-person votes from about 15 percent of precincts and tens of thousands of absentee ballots.The ballots would need to overwhelmingly favor one contender to swing the election, but could move the candidates closer to or further from one another.A comeback has happened before.Some supporters of Ms. Wiley or Ms. Garcia cite a mayoral contest in Oakland, Calif., to justify optimism.In that city’s 2010 race, Don Perata, the former head of the California State Senate, led his opponent, Jean Quan, by 8.7 percentage points after the first round. But Ms. Quan garnered 68 percent of the votes from ballots that listed neither of the two candidates first.She narrowly won.But Ms. Quan and another progressive candidate, who finished third, had endorsed each other and rallied against ranking Mr. Perata on the ballot. Ms. Garcia and Ms. Wiley did not form an alliance with each other.A successful late surge is rare.In 128 ranked-choice races across the country where there was no first-round winner, a candidate trailing by more than eight points after the first round has only won three times, according to FairVote.No one trailing by 10 points has ever been victorious.More on the race for mayor:How Adams Built a Diverse Coalition That Put Him Ahead in the Mayor’s RaceBrooklyn Councilman Unites Progressives to Lead Comptroller’s Race From The TimesModest Rent Increases Approved for 2.3 Million N.Y.C. TenantsN.Y.C.’s Police Chokehold Ban Is Struck Down by CourtHow India Walton Pulled It Off in the Buffalo Mayoral PrimaryOn the Scene: A Summer Night Down the Shore in JerseyWant more news? Check out our full coverage.The Mini Crossword: Here is today’s puzzle.What we’re readingThe disgraced R&B artist R. Kelly was transferred to a jail in Brooklyn this week ahead of his federal trial in August. [Daily News]The state attorney general’s office will not bring criminal charges against officers in Nassau County who opened fire and killed a 19-year-old in 2020. [QNS]A nearly 900-pound white shark has been spotted off the coast of Long Island and the Jersey Shore over the past several days. [NBC 4 New York]And finally: No more to-go cocktailsMore than a year after Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo imposed it to help quell the coronavirus raging through the state, New York’s state of emergency will end today, the governor said.But the change comes with the loss of one popular pandemic-era practice: the executive order that had allowed bars and restaurants to sell to-go and delivery alcoholic beverages will also end after today, New York State’s Liquor Authority said on Twitter.[Read more from my colleagues Daniel E. Slotnik and Dan Levin on the change.]The state of emergency was declared on March 7, 2020, as New York City became one of the world’s hardest-hit places for Covid-19. Its end is another welcome sign of the state’s steady march back toward normalcy. The governor relaxed most of New York’s remaining virus restrictions last week.But many consumers have grown accustomed to takeout tequila and walkaway wine, and many bars and restaurants have come to rely on the business they generated.Andrew Rigie, the executive director of the New York City Hospitality Alliance, said the announcement came as a shock to some of his members, who thought takeout alcohol would be allowed at least through July 5, when the current rules were set to expire.“It’s a loss of an important revenue stream that’s helping them stay afloat,” Mr. Rigie said.It’s Thursday — pour one out.Metropolitan Diary: Hot pink umbrella Dear Diary:I was returning to work from a coffee run when I got caught in the start of a rainstorm without my umbrella.When I got to the corner at 77th Street and Columbus, I just missed the light to cross. A long line of waiting cars began its procession. I stood there, getting soaked.Then the downpour over me suddenly stopped. I whirled around. An older woman standing beside me had put her hot pink umbrella over the two of us.“I can keep you dry for a little while,” she said.I thanked her, laughing a little.“Was my misery so apparent?”“Your hair was wet.”The light changed, and we crossed the street together under the shelter of her umbrella.“How far do you have to go?” she asked.“Just here,” I said, pointing to the right. “I work at the museum.”She smiled.“Well,” she said, walking off, “have a lovely day!”— Camille JettaNew York Today is published weekdays around 6 a.m. Sign up here to get it by email. You can also find it at nytoday.com. More