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      Democrats Call for Cuomo's Resignation, but Who Will Replace Him?

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      Potential successors are in the wings. But the longer it takes for Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo’s fate to be resolved, the greater the headache for Democrats.When an independent report declared last week that one of the nation’s most prominent Democratic leaders had sexually harassed 11 women, even some of his closest friends and oldest allies had finally run out of patience with Andrew M. Cuomo.One by one, they dropped him. President Biden, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the highest-ranking members of Congress from New York issued a message that left no room for interpretation: The governor had to go.The rapidity with which Mr. Cuomo has been cast out reflects not only how completely he alienated virtually every ally he once had, but also the possibility of political peril for a party that yoked its brand to the #MeToo movement during the Trump era, staking its reputation on a commitment to social equality and female empowerment.Already, New York Democratic officials, activists and strategists have begun privately discussing around a half-dozen politicians capable of succeeding Mr. Cuomo, with some potential candidates or their allies starting to gauge interest and identify possible sources of support. They include several who national Democrats believe would easily win a general election in the lopsidedly Democratic state — among them women and people of color whose ascension to the governor’s office in Albany could burnish the party’s image for inclusiveness.The turnabout in a few days’ time was whipsawing. Only a year ago a pillar of his party and the star of daily pandemic briefings, and still presumed by many to be the front-runner for a fourth term in 2022, Mr. Cuomo suddenly seemed eminently beatable, should he survive and persist with a campaign. And the political conversation crackled with the excitement and guesswork of an open race — with the guessing largely focused for the moment on whether Attorney General Letitia James, whose office released the independent report substantiating Mr. Cuomo’s misdeeds, would run for governor herself.The longer it takes for Mr. Cuomo’s fate to be resolved, the greater the headache for Democrats.Some Republicans have already used Mr. Cuomo’s situation to accuse Democrats of hypocrisy: In Virginia, the state G.O.P. called on Gov. Ralph Northam and the Democratic nominee to succeed him, Terry McAuliffe, to renounce Mr. Cuomo, saying “their silence is complicity.” In Congress, Senator Joni Ernst, an Iowa Republican, introduced a “Cuomo amendment” to prohibit federal infrastructure funding from being allocated to states led by governors who have sexually harassed their employees.And Representative Lee Zeldin of Long Island, a prominent Republican contender for governor and an avid Trump supporter, has been able to focus his early campaigning on Mr. Cuomo rather than having to defend his fealty to the former president, an enormous liability in a state that Mr. Trump lost to Mr. Biden by 20 percentage points.Representative Grace Meng of Queens, who served until January as a vice chair of the Democratic National Committee, suggested that party leaders had no patience for allowing the situation to fester, particularly as they continue to grapple with the challenges of the pandemic.“We have midterm elections coming up, and we need to make sure that we are focused on maintaining the House and the Senate,” Ms. Meng said. “There’s just no room for distractions right now.”Although Mr. Cuomo has given no indication that he plans to resign, dispatching his lawyers to mount an aggressive televised defense of his conduct, the State Assembly is moving quickly through an impeachment inquiry, raising hopes within the party that the governor’s future will be determined long before the midterm elections. Prosecutors from Long Island to Albany are pursuing criminal investigations into the allegations of sexual harassment, raising the pressure on Mr. Cuomo to step down.His top aide, Melissa DeRosa, said late Sunday that she had resigned, leaving Mr. Cuomo facing the impeachment process without one of his most trusted strategists. And Brittany Commisso, the executive assistant who accused Mr. Cuomo of groping her and filed a criminal complaint against him, gave a televised interview forcefully pushing back on claims made by the governor and his lawyers questioning her recollection of events.The Rev. Al Sharpton, whom Mr. Cuomo featured in a video montage as he sought to defend himself last week, offered an unsparing assessment of the governor’s political hopes. “I don’t see how he does survive this,” he said.But Mr. Cuomo, who has come back from less challenging predicaments before, may not go quickly or quietly. An impeachment proceeding would be uncharted territory for the State Assembly in the modern era, and many Democrats expect Mr. Cuomo to mount an aggressive defense, which could draw out the proceedings, fuel Republican attacks and keep potential challengers in political limbo.A spokesman for Mr. Cuomo did not respond to questions about his future or his standing in the Democratic Party.With little public polling yet available, it also remains unclear whether early signs that Democratic voters want Mr. Cuomo to resign will harden. Earlier this year, after allegations of groping and sexual harassment by Mr. Cuomo first became public, many Democratic voters expressed reluctance to insist on his resignation, worrying that the party was imposing damaging purity tests on its leaders. Aside from Senator Al Franken of Minnesota, who resigned after being accused of groping and forcibly kissing women, only a handful of prominent Democratic politicians have lost their jobs because of allegations of sexual harassment or assault.Yet, by initially backing the independent investigation himself, which was spearheaded by two outside investigators, Mr. Cuomo ultimately armed Democrats with well-documented evidence of his alleged misdeeds, creating a process that many Democrats hope will be perceived as fairer by the public.“With Franken, there was so much pressure for him to resign before there was even a process, and that was wrong,” said Randi Weingarten, president of the American Federation of Teachers, and another longtime Cuomo ally who now believes he should resign. “But there’s a difference between an accusation that should be seriously treated versus a report that basically corroborates the accusations.”Attorney General Letitia James has yet to give any indication that she is planning a run for governor in 2022, though she is seen by some inside the Democratic Party as having potential to excite a broad array of voters.Dave Sanders for The New York TimesThe handicapping of the potential Democratic field to succeed Mr. Cuomo begins with Ms. James, who is viewed by many as the most formidable contender, capable of appealing to both Black voters across the ideological spectrum and white progressives who see her as having held Mr. Cuomo to account.Ms. James has yet to give any indication that she is planning a run for anything but re-election as attorney general, and she is often described as risk-averse. But the possibility of a vacancy has set off intense speculation about whether she would turn her sights to the governor’s office.Whatever Ms. James decides, if Mr. Cuomo exits before the end of his term, New York will immediately get its first female governor: Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, a former congresswoman from Buffalo, would succeed him, and would very likely seek a full term in 2022.An official close to Ms. Hochul said her team was already thinking through how to balance bringing the state together and moving forward with what they expect could be a prolonged period of recrimination toward the Cuomo administration. The official also said Ms. Hochul is having conversations about personnel should she assume the governorship. And multiple lawmakers have met with her in recent weeks and gotten the impression that she is preparing for the chief executive position.Ms. Hochul would enjoy not only the advantages of incumbency in a governor’s race, but also a considerable head start: She has not had a close working relationship with Mr. Cuomo, but that has freed her to spend much of her six-year tenure traipsing across the state, holding economic-development events, championing Democratic candidates and quietly building a statewide network of political donors.Mr. Sharpton, whose Harlem headquarters is a mandatory way station for Democratic aspirants, said that political associates of Ms. James, Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli, Representative Thomas Suozzi of Long Island and Mayor Bill de Blasio had all approached him to sound him out about the 2022 governor’s race.“It’s going to be very difficult for the governor to stay in, and I think it’s going to open up the primary season early,” Mr. Sharpton said.Others said to be considering a run include Jumaane D. Williams, the left-wing New York City public advocate, who lost to Ms. Hochul in the 2018 primary for lieutenant governor, and Steven Bellone, the Suffolk County executive.Mr. de Blasio has declined to rule out a bid. Similarly, a campaign adviser to Mr. DiNapoli, Doug Forand, said Mr. DiNapoli was happy in his current job but acknowledged “the unpredictable nature of the governor’s situation.”The list of possible Democratic contenders will almost certainly increase, and could include other members of Congress, depending on the results of the redistricting process. It also could include the names of more prominent women: Some in party circles have expressed hope that Senator Kirsten Gillibrand or even Hillary Clinton might become interested in the job.Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul would assume the governorship should Mr. Cuomo resign or be impeached.Caitlin Ochs/ReutersCelinda Lake, a veteran Democratic pollster, said this was to be expected.“When something this visible happens,” she said of the Cuomo scandal, “and then it continues to happen after people thought it had been dealt with, it really gives you an appetite for women candidates.” More

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      De Blasio and Cuomo Feuded. How Will Adams Fare?

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      [Want to get New York Today by email? Here’s the sign-up.]It’s Thursday. Weather: Mostly sunny and humid with a chance of isolated showers. Highs near 90 but it will seem much hotter — a heat advisory warning is in place until tomorrow evening. Alternate-side parking: In effect until Monday (Eid al-Adha). Johnny Milano for The New York TimesAs Bill de Blasio appeared positioned to become mayor of New York City in 2013, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo painted a bright image of what Mr. de Blasio’s leadership would look like.The complimentary tone would be fleeting.In an effort to improve the relationship between the two offices, Eric Adams, the likely next mayor, made a public appearance with Mr. Cuomo on Wednesday, their first since Mr. Adams secured the Democratic nomination last week.The two emphasized areas of common ground, particularly around public safety. The major question: Will the unity last?[Read more about their joint appearance from my colleague Katie Glueck.]Here’s what to know:The shared messagingAt a Brooklyn church, Mr. Cuomo and Mr. Adams offered similar proclamations about the need for stronger public safety and better quality of life — talking in strikingly grim, sometimes hyperbolic terms as they discussed city life.The two also claimed the mantle of progressivism as they took apparent swipes at some on the left.The new relationshipMr. Adams and Mr. Cuomo are not thought to have deep personal bonds. But the two briefly overlapped while Mr. Adams was a state senator, which may ease the early stages of their relationship.Mr. Adams has said he supports an independent investigation into harassment allegations against the governor and believes in due process, but has also said “swift action must be taken” against powerful men who prey on women. He was one of the few Democratic mayoral candidates who did not call on Mr. Cuomo to immediately resign in the wake of the allegations.With Mr. Cuomo’s heavy reliance on support from Black voters, a strong relationship with Mr. Adams, who is poised to become the second Black mayor in the city’s history, may be in his own political interests as he heads into an election year amid a series of controversies.The past frictionMr. Cuomo greeted Mr. de Blasio warmly when he was the Democratic nominee in 2013. But their relationship devolved into an ugly political feud, and over the years they sparred over everything from pandemic plans and public housing to schools, snowstorms and the subway system.With Albany’s level of control over top municipal issues, the clashes have been common. Michael R. Bloomberg, too, had a sour relationship with Mr. Cuomo, as the two regularly battled for credit on successes.From The TimesHow Accurate Is New York’s Covid Death Toll?New N.Y.C. data shows how few fully vaccinated people were infectedCo-Working Spaces Are Back. And There Are Many, Many Options.‘Dana H.’ and ‘Is This a Room’ Will Share Broadway StageBob Baffert’s Suspension in New York Is Overturned in Federal CourtSummer is here, and New York City has largely reopened. Stay up to date on the best things to do, see and eat this season. Take a look at our latest newsletter, and sign up here.Want more news? Check out our full coverage.The Mini Crossword: Here is today’s puzzle.What we’re readingAmid a national backlash over lessons on systemic racism, some parents are starting debates over the subject in New York’s public schools. [Chalkbeat New York]Advocacy groups and elected leaders in New York are pushing the White House to ease the path toward protected status for Haitian nationals as the country faces uncertainty. [The City]Outdoor dining has been widely celebrated during the pandemic. But some East Village residents are frustrated with the new change. [Gothamist]And finally: Have you herd? Goats are back at Riverside ParkThe Times’s Precious Fondren writes:It was about 15 minutes into the second-ever “Running of the Goats” ceremony on Wednesday when the large crowd of spectators gathered at 120th Street and Riverside Drive began chanting: “Free the goats! Free the goats!”Twenty-four goats were awaiting their release into the not-so-wild to begin their weed-grazing journey through Riverside Park. The crowd erupted in cheers once the goats were let out of a trailer and began running down a staircase into a fenced enclosure.“I don’t think I’ve seen anything more random than this,” said Meera Sitaram, 30, of the Upper West Side.After taking a hiatus last year because of the pandemic, the Riverside Park Conservancy brought the herd of goats back to the city this year in an effort to reduce the amount of invasive plants in certain areas of the park.The masses gathered for the eccentric event listened to live musical performances, heard from local politicians and received free goat-embroidered fanny packs.Five of the goats — Buckles, Chalupa, Mallemar, Ms. Bo Peep and the fan favorite Skittles — will stay in the park until the end of August. New Yorkers will be able to vote for their favorite online, in an election that, in a nod to the recent primary, will use ranked-choice voting.Carol Berkin, 78, went to the first Running of the Goats, back in 2019, and noted how extravagant this year’s event was in comparison.“Last time there wasn’t an eighth of this,” Ms. Berkin said. “Now they had a band and they sold shirts and the fanny pack. It’s a nice thing, and New Yorkers are just great about nice things.”It’s Thursday — enjoy the show.Metropolitan Diary: Rewarding Dear Diary:I was home from college on a break and had come into Manhattan to visit my brother.I stopped at a pay phone to call and tell him that I was running late. I pulled a scrap of paper with his number on it from my wallet.When I got to his place, he greeted me with “So, you lost your wallet.”He said he had gotten a call from a woman who had found the wallet in a phone booth and called the number she found in it.“She’s waiting for you with your wallet in a bar,” he said. “Here’s the address.”I hurried across town to the bar, where a middle-age woman having drinks with some friends caught my eye.I walked over, she handed me the wallet and I thanked her profusely.“May I buy you a drink?” I asked, feeling that some gesture of gratitude was appropriate.“Oh, that’s very sweet, dear,” she said. “But you don’t have enough money.”— Michael HauptmanIllustrated by Agnes Lee. Read more Metropolitan Diary here.New York Today is published weekdays around 6 a.m. Sign up here to get it by email. You can also find it at nytoday.com. More

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      Will Cuomo Run for a 4th Term? A $10,000-a-Plate Fund-Raiser Says Yes.

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      The event on June 29 will be the first fund-raiser for Mr. Cuomo since overlapping investigations engulfed his administration earlier this year.Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo will host a fund-raiser for the first time since overlapping scandals engulfed his administration and prompted calls for his resignation — the latest indication that he is gearing up to run for re-election.The fund-raiser, which will take place on June 29 at an undisclosed location in New York City, was advertised as a “summer reception” in a campaign email to supporters, who will need to fork over $10,000 per person, or $15,000 for two people, to attend.The mere act of holding a high-dollar, in-person fund-raiser after the end of the legislative session inflamed Mr. Cuomo’s critics, even as it underscored his everything-is-normal strategy in the face of several federal and state investigations into his personal conduct and the actions of his administration.The fund-raiser comes as Mr. Cuomo’s poll numbers have stabilized in recent months and he has dedicated most of his time to shoring up public support. Mr. Cuomo, a third-term Democrat, has a sizable $16.8 million cash on hand, according to campaign filings from January, and he appears intent on adding to it before the next filing in July.Still, few donors or lobbyists who were invited to the event were interested in discussing their plans publicly on Wednesday. Of eight invitees, only two said they planned to go. But none doubted that the governor, a prolific fund-raiser, would be able to attract enough takers for the event to raise its expected amount. (Similar events in the past — one asked couples to pay $25,000 — have aimed to raise $500,000, according to a person familiar with the governor’s fund-raising efforts.)“The pitch is, ‘I’m governor and I’m governing, head down, straightforward,’” said one person who received an invitation and requested anonymity to discuss it. The person did not plan to attend the fund-raiser.While Mr. Cuomo could use campaign contributions to mount a bid for a fourth term in 2022, he could also, in theory, use the money to pay for legal expenses related to the inquiries he is confronting, should he choose to hire his own lawyer, as some state officials have done.He has ignored the calls to resign that accompanied the investigations into sexual harassment claims from several women, his administration’s handling of nursing home deaths during the pandemic and his $5.1 million deal to write a memoir about the coronavirus outbreak.At a news conference on Wednesday, Mr. Cuomo said that he has not hired private counsel to represent him in the investigations, relying instead on outside lawyers paid for by the state, and that he had no plans “at this time” to use campaign funds for personal legal expenses.When Mayor Bill de Blasio faced state and federal inquiries into his campaign fund-raising activities during his first term, he used city funds to pay for the bulk of the legal fees. But he announced that he would personally pay a portion of the fees, about $300,000 that pertained to his “nongovernmental work.” (Mr. de Blasio has yet to settle that debt.)Last week, the state comptroller office approved a $2.5 million contract for Morvillo Abramowitz Grand Iason & Anello, a Manhattan law firm, to represent the administration in a federal investigation, overseen by the Eastern District of New York, into nursing home deaths and questions related to the publication of the governor’s book, “American Crisis.”The firm is also handling state and federal inquiries into the preferential access to coronavirus testing afforded to Mr. Cuomo’s family and other influential people, according to a partner there, Elkan Abramowitz.“The executive chamber has retained counsel, and that is a state expense,” Mr. Cuomo said on Wednesday. “It has been in every investigation, so that’s where we are now.”As the inquiries have multiplied, so has state spending on legal representation for Mr. Cuomo and his aides. In the case of Mr. Abramowitz’s firm alone, the state went from a $1.5 million in initial precontract paperwork in March to the approved $2.5 million just over two months later.And there are several other firms representing Mr. Cuomo, his aides and other state officials.A separate request for the state to contract with Mitra Hormozi, a lawyer with Walden Macht & Haran LLP, which is representing the executive chamber on an investigation overseen by the state attorney general into the sexual harassment claims, is under review, according to the state comptroller office.Another contract for Paul J. Fishman, a partner at Arnold & Porter, a firm which is also representing the governor’s office on the sexual harassment accusations, has not been submitted to the comptroller office.Mr. Cuomo is being represented individually by another attorney, Rita Glavin, who started her own firm this year.“We are in the process of finalizing these contracts subject to approval by the comptroller’s office,” Richard Azzopardi, a senior adviser to Mr. Cuomo, said in a statement. “We are abiding by all applicable rules and standards, and in matters like this it is not uncommon for legal representation to begin while the contracts are simultaneously being drafted for submission and approval. Doing it the other way could potentially leave the chamber and its employees without representation.”Mr. Cuomo could take on private counsel of his own apart from the lawyers being paid for by the state. Were he to do so, he could use campaign funds to pay for that representation.However the governor plans to spend the money, the June 29 fund-raiser would be the first test of his ability to gather contributions, something Mr. Cuomo has been effective at throughout his tenure.Even as most fund-raisers were canceled or went virtual during the pandemic, Mr. Cuomo raised more than $4 million during the latter half of 2020 and the first two weeks of 2021, during which the state confronted the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic and he promoted his pandemic memoir.His top-dollar contributors, who gave up to $69,700 each during that time period, included Larry Robbins, a hedge fund manager; Eric Schmidt, the billionaire former chief executive of Google; Frank McCourt, the businessman and former owner of the Los Angeles Dodgers; and Robert Hale, a co-owner of the Boston Celtics.Real estate developers Gary Barnett, Daniel Brodsky, Jeffrey Gural, Harrison LeFrak and Larry Silverstein each gave $20,000 or more, while the billionaire leaders of the Estée Lauder Companies, Leonard A. Lauder and William Lauder, collectively contributed $82,000. More

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      Andrew Giuliani to Run for GOP Nomination for NY Governor

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      The son of Rudolph W. Giuliani joins two other candidates in a primary that could demonstrate former President Trump’s continued hold on their party.The field of Republicans vying to challenge Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo in next year’s race for governor grew on Tuesday as Andrew Giuliani, the son of the former New York City mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, formally unveiled his candidacy.Mr. Giuliani is the third Republican to see an opportunity for the party to seize the governor’s mansion for the first time in nearly two decades, joining Representative Lee Zeldin of Long Island, a staunch conservative, and Rob Astorino, a former county executive of Westchester County and the party’s 2014 nominee for governor.With Mr. Cuomo engulfed in overlapping investigations into accusations of sexual harassment, his handling of nursing homes and the use of state resources for his pandemic memoir, Republicans in New York appeared eager to take on a newly vulnerable governor hobbling into his run for a fourth term.And the entrance of Mr. Giuliani, a former special assistant to President Donald J. Trump, along with Mr. Zeldin, an ardent backer of the former president, suggested that Republican candidates with ties to Mr. Trump may see a distinct advantage, even in deep blue New York.“We need a leader who is going to light the economic furnace in New York and keep our streets safe again,” said Mr. Giuliani in a telephone interview. “Stop the war on police that has been going on. End bail reform.”Mr. Giuliani, in first announcing his candidacy in The New York Post, likened himself to a heavyweight boxer about to enter the ring for a title bout with Mr. Cuomo. “Giuliani vs. Cuomo. Holy smokes. It’s Muhammad Ali vs. Joe Frazier,” he told the paper.But for many New Yorkers, particularly in the city, the image that jumps to mind — one that the 35-year-old Mr. Giuliani has struggled to live down — is of his 7-year-old self fidgeting about the lectern at City Hall as his father gave his inaugural address as mayor in 1994. The moment was satirized by “Saturday Night Live,” with Mr. Giuliani played by the comedian Chris Farley. (Mr. Giuliani said he loves the skit.)In 2017, Mr. Trump hired Mr. Giuliani, a former professional golfer, to work as a special assistant and associate director of the Office of Public Liaison. Since leaving the White House this year, he has been an on-camera contributor for Newsmax Media, the conservative media company. (He left that position to run for governor.)Mr. Giuliani, who only began raising money in recent days, faces a difficult path in the Republican primary.Mr. Zeldin, an outspoken supporter of Mr. Trump, has already raised $2.5 million in campaign cash since announcing his candidacy last month, according to his campaign, and has worked to position himself to gain Mr. Trump’s endorsement.“It’s clear that Congressman Zeldin has the support, momentum and dogged determination to win and restore New York to glory,” said Ian Prior, a campaign spokesman for Mr. Zeldin.Mr. Trump made it clear to Mr. Giuliani when they saw each other at Mar-a-Lago, Mr. Trump’s estate in Florida, a few weeks ago that he was leaning toward Mr. Zeldin, according to two people with knowledge of the discussion.Mr. Giuliani, in the conversation, suggested that the former president wait until after the next campaign filing, in mid-July, so that Mr. Giuliani could demonstrate his viability, the people said.Mr. Giuliani did not dispute that account. “All I can say is the president has been a friend for a long time and somebody I have been honored to work for,” he said. “I think he is going to be very impressed.”A confident speaker, Mr. Giuliani made a favorable impression on some Republican Party operatives in meetings before county chairs last month. He is scheduled to travel around the state over the next week, according to his campaign. State party officials had hoped to avoid a primary, but with one now all but assured, they appear to have embraced the energy.“Rudy will forever be known as the man who transformed New York City, and Andrew can be the one to do it statewide,” said Nick Langworthy, the party chairman, in a statement. “New York is broken and in need of the type of overhaul that the Giuliani administration ushered in during the 1990s.”How much currency the Giuliani family name holds for New York voters, particularly upstate, is an open question. Rudolph Giuliani, a former federal prosecutor and onetime personal attorney to Mr. Trump, was aggressive in publicly questioning the results of the 2020 election and in the failed effort to overturn the election in court. His work in Ukraine during Mr. Trump’s administration is under federal investigation.And any Republican faces daunting math when trying to run statewide in New York, where Democrats outnumber Republicans two to one and the party’s last statewide win was in 2002, when George Pataki was elected governor.Still, some Republicans see Mr. Cuomo’s troubles as a reason to hope.“When you have Andrew, Lee and Rob all running for governor, it shows how excited New Yorkers are to have Andrew Cuomo on the ballot as a Democrat seeking his fourth term,” said Joseph Borelli, a Republican member of the New York City Council from Staten Island. “Good luck, Governor Cuomo!”Maggie Haberman contributed reporting. More

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      Elise Stefanik Is Playing a Dangerous Game With Her Career

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      The rapid rise of Representative Elise Stefanik of New York to the post of chief pro-Trump messenger in the ongoing battle for the soul of the G.O.P. has sparked a flurry of media reports about how a supposed onetime moderate Republican metamorphosed into a full-fledged fire-breathing far-right conservative.But for those who have been following Ms. Stefanik’s career since she emerged on the political scene in the 2014 battle for an open congressional seat in New York’s North Country, her embrace of Trumpism and elevation on Friday to the No. 3 role in the House G.O.P. don’t come as any big surprise.The reality is that Ms. Stefanik has always been a shape-shifter, driven more by the political zeitgeist than any strongly rooted ideology.Her single-minded drive to succeed has long been well known, starting from her first congressional run, at the age of 30, when she successfully sought to be the youngest woman elected to the House at the time. Her ambition, a trait for which her male colleagues are frequently praised, sparked routine — and frankly sexist — comparisons to Reese Witherspoon’s cutthroat student politician character Tracy Flick in the 1999 film “Election.”Ms. Stefanik has a well-established track record of recognizing opportunities and seizing them, molding herself and her message to fit the moment. When her Democratic predecessor Representative Bill Owens abruptly announced in January 2014 he would not seek re-election, she was already six months into her campaign — positioning herself as a fresh-faced newcomer who would usher a new generation of Republican leaders, especially women, into office.Ms. Stefanik ran as a self-described “independent voice,” even though she was strongly backed by the national G.O.P. — from the House speaker at the time, John Boehner, on down. She espoused conservative positions on a host of litmus test social and fiscal issues: opposing most abortions, the complexity of the tax code, gun control and the Affordable Care Act.She also ran on an anti-establishment platform — declaring that she understood “firsthand that Washington is broken” (sound familiar?) — despite the fact that she was steeped in the establishment. She previously served in George W. Bush’s White House and was a campaign adviser for the former vice-presidential candidate and House Speaker Paul Ryan.Ms. Stefanik’s path to victory in 2014 was made easier by the fact that her Democratic opponent was unusually weak — Aaron Woolf, a documentary filmmaker who was a first-time candidate, like Ms. Stefanik, and a transplant to the district. Ms. Stefanik routinely touts her significant margins of victory in that race and each of her re-election bids, but the reality is that the national Democrats have never truly made ousting her a top priority.Damon Winter/The New York TimesMs. Stefanik criticized Donald Trump on personal and policy fronts in 2016 and in the first years of his administration, but she read the political tea leaves — not only the rightward shift of her district but also the full tilt of the House G.O.P. to a pro-Trump caucus.As she chose the Trump side in the national G.O.P.’s internal power struggle, a similar intraparty battle has been taking place in her home state at a time of political flux. Multiple scandals and investigations plaguing Gov. Andrew Cuomo present the Republican Party with its best chance to regain the Executive Mansion since the last standard-bearer to hold it, George Pataki, departed at the end of 2006.As recently as late April, Ms. Stefanik was reportedly considering a challenge to Mr. Cuomo in 2022, with a senior staff member releasing a statement touting her status as the “most prolific New York Republican fundraiser ever in state history” and insisting she would “immediately be the strongest Republican candidate in both a primary and general gubernatorial election.”Yet Republicans are coalescing around a pro-Trump challenger to Mr. Cuomo, Representative Lee Zeldin of Long Island. And a 2022 race for governor is looking tough for any Republican, given how New York is leaning steadily leftward and democratic socialist candidates are expanding the left’s electoral power by attracting new progressive voters.With Republican registrations dwindling across the state, Ms. Stefanik’s political options back home are increasingly limited. Against that backdrop, a short-term gamble that propels her up the D.C. food chain is a classic Trumpian power grab — one requiring that she cast off the moderate mantle she was perceived to wear.New York has a long history of shape-shifting elected officials who willingly and even eagerly changed their positions — and in some cases, their party affiliations — based on how the political winds were blowing.Mr. Pataki, for example, was elected on an anti-tax, pro-death penalty platform, defeating Democratic incumbent Mario Cuomo, a national liberal icon, in 1994. Over his 12 years in office, Mr. Pataki shifted steadily leftward, embracing everything from gun control to environmental protection to assure his re-election by the increasingly Democratic-dominated electorate.Another prime example: Kirsten Gillibrand. She was once a Blue Dog Democrat infamous for touting how she kept two guns under her bed. But when former Gov. David Paterson tapped her, at the time an upstate congresswoman, to fill the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Hillary Clinton, Ms. Gillibrand quickly changed her tune. Critics accused her of flip-flopping, much the way a different set of critics is currently targeting Ms. Stefanik.Ms. Gillibrand at the time said her evolution signaled political courage and a willingness to “fight for what’s right.” Ms. Stefanik, by contrast, has thrown her lot in with a former president who was impeached not once but twice and consistently sought to undermine — if not outright overthrow — the very democratic foundation of this nation. It is no doubt a dangerous game for the up-and-coming congresswoman, and one that could well cut short her once promising political career in a re-election bid in New York. But given her history, was this choice surprising? Not in the least.Liz Benjamin is a former reporter who covered New York politics and government for two decades. She’s now the managing director for Albany at Marathon Strategies, a communications and strategic consulting firm.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Cuomo’s Approval Rating Has Fallen. He Could Still Win Re-Election.

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      Allegations of sexual harassment have hurt Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s favorability rating. But 57 percent of Democrats say he is doing a good job, a new poll shows, enough support to give him a decent chance at a fourth term.Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York has not had much good news over the past few months. His poll numbers have not been much of an exception.A new Siena College poll this week found that Mr. Cuomo’s ratings had fallen to the lowest level of his tenure, with allegations of sexual harassment continuing to erode his support.But for Mr. Cuomo, the worst poll numbers of his time as governor may still be enough to win re-election. His ratings are worse than they were in early 2014 or 2018, when he went on to win easily, but not by so much that it would make him an obvious underdog in pursuit of a fourth term.The governor’s favorability rating among Democrats in the Siena poll was 56 percent, while 37 percent had an unfavorable view of him. The poll found that registered Democrats were divided on whether they would vote to re-elect Mr. Cuomo. By these measures, Mr. Cuomo is more vulnerable than he was four years ago, but he has not lost so much ground as to close off his path to renomination, either.And by another measure, Mr. Cuomo’s position is also stronger now than it was in 2018: 57 percent of Democrats say he is doing a good or excellent job as governor.That Mr. Cuomo could still win is not an indication of any great political resilience. Nor does it imply he is an overwhelming favorite, even without considering whether his standing may diminish further with new revelations.Much will depend on the conclusions of several investigations that are underway, including one by the F.B.I. on whether his administration provided false data on deaths from Covid-19 in nursing homes, and another by New York’s attorney general, Letitia James, into the sexual harassment allegations. Findings by Ms. James that lead to an embarrassing impeachment trial could prompt more voters to shun him.Yet so far, Mr. Cuomo maintains enough support to have a good chance to prevail. If he does in the final account, he will have overcome allegations of impropriety — and a pummeling from progressive activists on social media — with persistent support from the rank-and-file of the Democratic Party.In some ways, Mr. Cuomo’s popularity at the peak of the pandemic — when he was earning raves for his daily updates — was an exception to the general rule of his tenure. He has often had fairly weak ratings, at least for the governor of a blue state. In April 2018, as Mr. Cuomo was vying for re-election, a Siena College poll found that just 62 percent of registered Democrats in New York had a favorable view of the governor, while 32 percent had an unfavorable view of him. Only 57 percent of Democrats said they would vote to re-elect him, while 32 percent said they would prefer someone else. Just 53 percent thought he was doing a good or excellent job.In the end, Mr. Cuomo won renomination with 64 percent of the vote. His 34 point margin of victory over Cynthia Nixon was slightly larger than his plus-30 favorability rating or the 24 point margin by which Democrats said they would prefer to re-elect him over someone else. It would be a mistake to assume on this basis that Mr. Cuomo is a clear favorite to win the primary so long as his ratings stay above water among Democrats. Indeed, Democrats are divided on whether they want to re-elect Mr. Cuomo, with only 46 percent saying they prefer to vote to re-elect him and 43 percent saying they would prefer someone else.Why is Mr. Cuomo still competitive for renomination? One factor is that New York Democrats remain equivocal about the severity or veracity of the allegations against him.Democrats continue to believe Mr. Cuomo has done a good job handling the pandemic in New York, despite the revelation that his administration has hid data about the death toll in nursing homes. While 59 percent in the Siena poll say he has done either a poor or “fair” job of making public all data about such deaths, a sizable 34 percent of registered Democrats believe that he has done a good or excellent job of making such data available. And a 64 percent majority of Democrats continue to say that Mr. Cuomo has, in general, done a good or excellent job of providing information during the pandemic.Democrats are even more divided on the multiple allegations of sexual harassment against Mr. Cuomo, which he has denied. Just 39 percent believe he has committed sexual harassment, the Siena poll showed, while 30 percent disagree and another 30 percent are not sure. The precipitous decline in his favorability ratings since the allegations became public suggest that many Democrats take the charges seriously and have re-evaluated him on that basis, but a larger number of Democrats are not ready to go so far. Most Democrats say they are satisfied with how he has addressed the allegations and do not support his immediate resignation.Perhaps the hesitancy of some New York Democrats to believe the allegations against Mr. Cuomo simply reflects their dispassionate read of the evidence. It might also be a reflection of the loyalty of the state’s rank-and-file Democratic voters to Mr. Cuomo.After all, many more registered Republicans believe the allegations against Mr. Cuomo than registered Democrats, a powerful reminder of the role of partisanship in shaping public opinion. Liberals, who generally argue that women should be believed when they allege sexual harassment, are the likeliest ideological group to say they do not believe Mr. Cuomo has committed sexual harassment. A majority of conservatives and Republicans, in contrast, believe the allegations.Mr. Cuomo’s resilience is also a reminder that New York Democrats are fairly moderate, despite counting some of the nation’s most famous progressive politicians, like Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and a thriving Democratic Socialist left among their ranks. In recent Democratic primaries, New Yorkers backed Hillary Clinton and Mr. Cuomo over idealistic, reformist, good-government progressive challengers.Mr. Cuomo and other establishment-backed Democrats have often won with considerable support from nonwhite voters, especially those who are Black, in New York City, who often hold relatively moderate views on cultural and ideological issues compared with those of white progressives. And of all of the demographic groups surveyed in the Siena poll, Black voters, regardless of party registration, were the likeliest to have a favorable view of Mr. Cuomo or say he has not committed sexual harassment.Mr. Cuomo’s path to winning the general election is straightforward: capitalize on New York’s Democratic lean. The Siena College poll found that registered voters in the state said they preferred a Democrat for governor over a Republican by a 20 percentage point margin, presumably making it quite difficult for any Republican to win the general election.Difficult does not mean impossible. It is not wholly uncommon for Democratic states to elect Republican governors, or vice versa. The three states where President Biden’s performed the strongest — Vermont, Massachusetts and Maryland — all have Republican governors, albeit moderate ones; the Democratic governors of Kansas, Kentucky and Louisiana offer examples on the other side of the political spectrum.Mr. Cuomo’s ratings are weak enough statewide that he could be vulnerable against a strong and moderate Republican challenger, who would probably need to accede to the state’s prevailing cultural views, perhaps even on abortion and Donald Trump’s presidency. Most of the Republican contenders so far do not fit into that category. Many have strong ties to national Republican politics, including several House Republicans and even Andrew Giuliani.There’s still time for a stronger challenger to emerge, but for now it is not easy to identify someone comparable to the three anti-Trump Republicans who currently govern blue states.In the final account, the most powerful force to help Mr. Cuomo overcome allegations of sexual harassment may be the partisan loyalty of Democratic voters in a blue state. More