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      What Does the California Recall Mean for the U.S.?

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      Gov. Gavin Newsom and the Democrats argued that he was running not on his record or against a particular candidate, but against Trumpism.Sign up here to get On Politics in your inbox every weekday.Let’s start with the obvious caveat: California is different. That’s true for many, many reasons, but this week all eyes are on its bizarre — some say unconstitutional — recall process, in which a small minority of Californians have forced today’s no-confidence vote on Gov. Gavin Newsom, despite a vast majority’s support for him.The latest polls show that Californians overwhelmingly want him to stay, and are especially wary of his leading opponent, the conservative talk-show host Larry Elder. But this being politics in 2021, let’s also concede that there is always a chance that the polls are disastrously wrong. By tomorrow, could we all be talking about Mr. Elder’s brilliant campaign and bright future?With those two huge caveats in mind, let’s take up the opposite question: What does Mr. Newsom’s likely cruise to victory say about American politics over the coming years?Again, this being 2021, we can’t talk about politics, national or local, without talking about Donald J. Trump and, by extension, Trumpism. The man and the phenomenon (or is it a movement? or an ideology?) played into the race in two ways, both of which we’re going to see repeated in coming races.First, Mr. Newsom and the Democrats seem to have persuasively argued that he was running not on his record or against a particular candidate, but against Trumpism — that the alternative to Mr. Newsom was, as this paper put in a headline, “the abyss.”“We defeated Trump last year, and thank you, but we haven’t defeated Trumpism,” Mr. Newsom has told anyone who would listen.Such scaremongering is a time-honored tactic, but it’s an especially salient and effective one today. Mr. Trump is always in the news, always taking the extreme position, and as long as he lays claim to being the head of the Republican Party, Democrats will try to tie their opponents to him.And it works. Because Trumpism is so vague, opponents can make it anything they want it to be. Incipient fascism? Rampant libertarianism? White supremacy? Check, check and check. It can also mean specific things, like eviscerating climate policy or canceling mask and vaccine mandates. California has a lot of problems, but Californians generally approve of Sacramento’s pro-government, pro-regulatory approach. Rather than be forced to defend their specific policies, the Democrats can simply paint their opponents as Trump manqués bent on destruction.Another caveat: This is California, where Democrats outnumber Republicans by two to one, forcing the Republican Party into a corner, where it has become captive to its base. That means it’s going to behave in ways that the Republican Party of Texas or Florida, for example, might not.“Compare it with, let’s say, the Democratic Party in Mississippi,” said Chris Stirewalt, the former digital politics editor at Fox News. “It’s probably a very weird space.”Will the Democrats’ strategy work in purple states, or even a state like Virginia, where Republicans are more numerous and better organized — and where Terry McAuliffe is already deploying it against his Republican opponent, Glenn Youngkin, in their race for governor?Traditional political analysis would say no. But again, this is 2021. Following their base, many Republicans have largely (but not entirely) abandoned the political middle, where most Americans say they abide. Democrats have spent months painting their opponents as anti-democratic and anti-reality, a message that has played well among independents and moderates, starting with the Senate runoffs in Georgia, and with Mr. Trump ringing in with false claims about election fraud, expertly timed to prove their point.Not every race is going to play out that way. Most Republicans will read the room, so to speak, and adjust their campaigns accordingly. Look at Kevin Faulconer, the former mayor of San Diego who’s also running to replace Mr. Newsom. Yes, he has the requisite photo of himself standing beside Mr. Trump. But his message has been about pragmatic solutions to state problems, exactly the sort of campaign you’d expect from someone trying to put space between himself and his national party.Then again, Mr. Faulconer is running a distant second behind Mr. Elder and barely registers in the national conversation. One reason is the uniqueness of the race. It’s a battle royal, not a primary; the candidates had little time to prepare; and as a result, name recognition, which Mr. Elder has and Mr. Faulconer doesn’t, is critical.But another is the new dynamics of right-wing politics — and the second way in which the recall illustrates the lasting impact of Mr. Trump and Trumpism.Mr. Newsom has been running with his “me vs. the abyss” strategy since the recall began. But it didn’t stick at first, because the recall was focused on Mr. Newsom and his performance during the pandemic — including an embarrassing maskless dinner at the French Laundry, one of California’s most exclusive restaurants, during the state’s shutdown.“In a vacuum, there was a lot of discontentment with Newsom and ambivalence with him among Democrats,” said Rob Stutzman, a Republican political consultant in California.That started to change once “the abyss” got a name.Mr. Elder isn’t the Trumpiest candidate imaginable, but he’s close. A novice campaigner with a background in conservative talk radio, Mr. Elder has a treasure chest full of embarrassing comments in his past — about women, about Black people — and a penchant for making more of them on the stump.“Larry Elder has been the gift that keeps on giving,” said Steven Maviglio, a Democratic political consultant in California.Again, Mr. Elder has been effective because this race is so much more about celebrity than policy. But he’s also effective because he, more than anyone else, is attuned to the Trumpist base, and is willing to tack accordingly.After he drew fire from the right for telling the editorial board of The Sacramento Bee that Joe Biden won the 2020 election, he reversed himself. He has repeatedly and falsely claimed that the recall race is rife with fraud. He is crushing it among the “guys with an Uncle Sam costume in their closet” demographic, but not much else.Arguably, Mr. Elder isn’t a serious politician; he’s running not to win, but to raise his media profile. But that very fact says something about today’s Republican Party. Many of its highest-profile figures blur the line between politician and celebrity, and act accordingly, even if their success as the latter undermines what we expect out of the former. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Madison Cawthorn — and, yes, Larry Elder — are only nominally politicians. In substance, they’re entertainers.True, they’re entertainers who say scary things about guns, political violence, the pandemic and anyone to their political left. And true, some of them do win elections, usually in deep-red districts. And true, many people in the Republican Party are much smarter, or at least more thoughtful about elected office, than they are.Still, Mr. Elder and Co. highlight a lasting, possibly permanent dynamic on the right: the rejection of politics as anything other than smash-mouth spectacle, in which the most outrageous and insincere figures draw the biggest crowds — and force their colleagues to play constant defense against their own party.That’s not an insurmountable challenge. Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida seems, at least for now, to have figured out a way past it. But many won’t — and many Republicans won’t even try. Remember when the party could dismiss as side shows the occasional extremist figures like Todd Akin, who made comments about “legitimate rape,” and Christine “I’m Not a Witch” O’Donnell? In 2021, that’s become much, much harder to do.On Politics is also available as a newsletter. Sign up here to get it delivered to your inbox.Is there anything you think we’re missing? Anything you want to see more of? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. More

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      As California Votes, It Rethinks Its Tradition of Direct Democracy

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      Any proposed changes to a century-old recall law are likely to be met with stiff opposition from Republicans, who see it as one of the last avenues of influence in a Democratic-led state.SACRAMENTO — As Californians went to the polls on Tuesday to determine whether Gov. Gavin Newsom would be removed from office, the recall election had already spawned another campaign: to recall the recall.In a state famous for its acts of direct democracy, whether banning affirmative action or legalizing cannabis, detractors of this year’s special election say the recall process is democracy gone off the rails, a distraction from crises that require the government’s attention, and a waste of hundreds of millions of dollars.California’s forests are on fire, with wildfire smoke sending thousands of residents fleeing. Towns are running out of water from severe drought. And some rural hospitals are packed with coronavirus patients.Many voters who went to the polls on Tuesday said the election was an unwelcome distraction that preoccupied Mr. Newsom and, some critics said, might have prevented him from taking on tough decisions.“This recall is so dumb,” said Frankie Santos, a 43-year-old artist who voted in Hollywood on Tuesday. “It’s so not a good use of resources.” She said that if she could have scrawled “absolutely no” to recalling Mr. Newsom without invalidating her ballot, she would have.Anthony Rendon, the speaker of the State Assembly, and other legislative leaders have already said discussions were underway to place a constitutional amendment regarding recalls before voters in 2022.Voters waited to enter a polling site at a library in Huntington Beach.Allison Zaucha for The New York TimesAn election worker collected mail-in ballots at Westminster Presbyterian Church in Pasadena.Ryan Young for The New York Times“This is a system that was put in place 100 years ago,” said Mr. Rendon, referring to the current recall rules. “We’ll be asking if this is what’s best for the state.”The election, which is costing the state $276 million to administer, has at times had a circus atmosphere to it, not least when one of the 46 candidates on the ballot brought a large bear to a campaign rally.No one in the state’s Democratic leadership is suggesting the elimination of recalls, which are baked into the State Constitution. But many are vowing to make it more difficult for them to qualify for the ballot, or to change the rules on how a successor is chosen.Currently, opponents of a governor — or any other elected official in California — can trigger a recall election by submitting signatures equal to 12 percent of the turnout in the most recent election for that office.In a sharp piece of political irony, it will take a referendum to decide whether to change this particular referendum.Democrats will be working over howls of opposition from Republicans, who see the recall process as one of the few resorts left to them in a state where Democrats control every statewide office and have supermajorities in the Legislature.“The last thing we need is legal changes that make it even harder for Californians to access their government,” said Kevin Kiley, a Republican assemblyman who ran in the recall election.Mr. Kiley said Democrats had already tried to delegitimize the process by calling it a democratic coup.“If they are trying to make it harder or impossible to hold your public officials accountable, that is absolutely something that I would oppose,” Mr. Kiley said.Critics of the recall process say it is fundamentally antidemocratic. With a simple majority, voters could recall Mr. Newsom, who was well ahead in the polls in the final days of campaigning. But his replacement would be chosen by plurality.Gov. Gavin Newsom thanked members of the IBEW Local 6 union for their support in San Francisco.Jim Wilson/The New York TimesLarry Elder, the leading Republican candidate, in Whittier last week.Alex Welsh for The New York TimesPolling showed that the front-runner to replace Mr. Newsom, the conservative talk show host Larry Elder, had nowhere near a majority of support, and many Democrats left that section of the ballot blank.Among Newsom supporters, there were strong feelings about the recall.Jose Orbeta, an employee of San Francisco’s Department of Public Health, was blunt in describing the recall election as he voted on Tuesday.“Waste of time,” he said. “It’s a power grab by the G.O.P.”Mr. Newsom had done a “decent job” leading California through the pandemic, he said.Recalls in California date back more than a century, to a suite of reforms passed from 1910 to 1913 under Gov. Hiram Johnson, a Republican and progressive crusader. They were the capstone of a yearslong effort to curb the political power of the Southern Pacific railroad, which all but owned the state’s government and economy, controlling politicians, judges and regulators.Mr. Johnson’s reforms broke the hold, overhauling the state’s election system and, through a constitutional amendment passed by voters in 1911, instituting the system of referendums, ballot initiatives and the recall. Kevin Starr, a California historian who died in 2017, called this “the very re-creation of the political and social order of California.”It is often pointed out that Mr. Johnson’s reforms — tools that were explicitly created to curb the influence of big business on California’s politics — have now become a major corporate weapon. This is particularly true of initiatives, which can be put on the ballot with a few million dollars’ worth of clipboard-holding workers gathering signatures from registered voters.One recent example was Proposition 22, a $200 million initiative by the ride-sharing companies Uber and Lyft to prevent their drivers from being classified as employees.“That is the bigger problem here,” said Jim Newton, a historian and lecturer on public policy at the University of California, Los Angeles, who has written biographies of the governors Earl Warren and Jerry Brown.“It’s not whether Gavin Newsom gets 51 percent or we have Gov. Larry Elder. That’s important, but the general premise that the initiative, referendum and recall are intended to curb the influence of powerful special interests has been tipped entirely on its head and it has now become the tool of special interests.”Erwin Chemerinsky, a constitutional law expert and the dean of the School of Law at the University of California, Berkeley, argued that the state’s recall process is unconstitutional because the two-step nature of the process — with voters deciding whether to recall the sitting governor and then, separately, choosing a replacement — makes it possible for a new governor to take office with less popular support than the old one.If 49 percent of voters supported Mr. Newsom, 25 percent supported Mr. Elder, and fewer than that supported any other candidate, Mr. Elder would become governor with about half as many votes as Mr. Newsom. In that scenario, the vote of one Elder supporter would effectively have twice as much power as the vote of a Newsom supporter, said Professor Chemerinsky — and that would violate the “one person, one vote” principle affirmed in two Supreme Court decisions in 1964, Reynolds v. Sims and Wesberry v. Sanders.Californians were not forced to confront that problem in the 2003 recall, in which Arnold Schwarzenegger replaced Gov. Gray Davis, because Mr. Schwarzenegger received more votes on the second question than Mr. Davis did on the first.Voters cast their ballots at Redwood Playhouse in Garberville.Alexandra Hootnick for The New York TimesLeaving a voting site at Jesse Owens Park in Los Angeles on Monday.Allison Zaucha for The New York TimesMr. Davis, the first California governor to lose a recall election, said in an interview that the ability to recall officials was part of California’s “unique direct democracy approach to voting,” but that he supported changes to the specifics of the process.“For 110 years, anyone running for governor knew there was a possibility of being subject to a recall,” he said. “It comes with the territory — and life isn’t always fair.”But he argued that the threshold for getting a recall on the ballot — signatures from 12 percent of the voters in the previous election for governor — was insufficient in an era that allows interest groups to gain supporters with the click of a button on Facebook.“We should go from a 12 percent to a 25 percent threshold,” Mr. Davis said, and ask voters only one question: “Who should serve out the balance of the governor’s term?”State Senator Josh Newman, who experienced the state’s recall rules firsthand when he was recalled in 2018 and replaced by a candidate who received fewer votes than him in the recall election, said he planned to propose a constitutional amendment early next year that would remove the replacement race on the ballot. Voters would decide whether a governor should be recalled, and if so, the lieutenant governor would automatically take the job. Mr. Newman ran against his replacement and won back his seat in 2020.Yet amid the plans and proposals to tweak the recall rules, there were voters who wanted them to stay just as they are.Jim Mastrosimone, a voter in Irvine, groused that the list of replacement candidates was too long after casting his vote for Mr. Elder.But ultimately, Mr. Mastrosimone said, he is happy Californians have recall elections.“It gives the power to the little guy,” he said.Thomas Fuller More

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      Larry Elder Has Put Issues of Race at Recall Election Campaign

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      LOS ANGELES — Campaigning together on Monday, President Biden and Gov. Gavin Newsom celebrated California, the country’s most diverse state, as a potent example of multiracial democracy in action.On the other side of the aisle, issues of race and diversity are similarly at the core of the message being put before voters by Larry Elder, the Republican radio host who is the leading contender to replace Mr. Newsom.His message is that the United States long ago vanquished racism.Mr. Elder’s choice of a campaign stop on Monday in Monterey Park, a city in eastern Los Angeles County that is predominantly Asian American and has a sizable Latino population, seemed intended to celebrate diversity. But Mr. Elder, who is Black, also used the visit to argue that systemic racism, which he has called a “lie,” does not exist in America anymore.“No matter what language we speak, what color we share, even what political stripe we brag about,” Betty Chu, the former mayor of Monterey Park, told Mr. Elder’s supporters, “If it’s an ‘R,’ a ‘D,’ or ‘decline to state,’ the city long stood for anti-hate and bringing people together.”Ms. Chu said that Mr. Elder’s success as a columnist and radio host, and the fact that he attended public schools and rose to prominence from South Central Los Angeles, were proof “that skin color doesn’t hold you back.”For many of Mr. Elder’s supporters, especially conservative white voters who say they are tired of hearing about systemic racism after last year’s social unrest following the murder of George Floyd, that message is resonant.Stacy Hallum, 47, a supporter of Mr. Elder’s who attended his rally on Monday, said she loved the diversity of where she lives, but said that “just because we’re white, we matter too.”She continued: “I’m so tired of the racism thing. We’re done with racism. I’m not privileged, let me tell you.”Mr. Elder has often sought to seize on issues of race, describing his policies as ones that will benefit people of color.On the issue of private versus public education, he has attacked Democrats like Mr. Newsom for sending their children to private school while opposing charter schools and other forms of private or semiprivate education. Mr. Elder said such moves leave public schools to fail their Black and brown students.“So what they’re afraid of is Larry Elder, from the hood, who attended a public school, is going to break that stranglehold Democrats have over Black and brown parents, specifically over the issue of school choice,” he said at the rally on Monday. More

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      Why was Newsom’s French Laundry moment such a big deal? Our California restaurant critic explains.

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      This is what I keep thinking about: If Gov. Gavin Newsom had been spotted on the patio of a tiny neighborhood bistro just after urging California residents to stay home last November, we might not be blogging about a recall today.Instead, Mr. Newsom was seen at The French Laundry, attending the birthday dinner of Sacramento lobbyist Jason Kinney. The images of him hobnobbing with guests, indoors, without a mask on, at one of the country’s most expensive restaurants, were immediately and powerfully symbolic.The chef Thomas Keller took over the Yountville restaurant in the mid-90s and defined that era’s American fine-dining sensibility, equal parts playful and extravagant. Reservations were (and continue to be) impossible. Dishes such as the silky tuna tartare, held in a tiny, crisp cone, were (and continue to be) widely replicated, though most restaurants simply can’t replicate the atmosphere — the lush gardens, the perfume of fresh black truffles, the perfectly pressed uniforms.As a line cook in my 20s, I studied the recipes and photographs in The French Laundry cookbook, hoping its knowledge would transfer to me, reading and rereading it so many times that the pages became soft and worn at the edges. But not long before Governor Newsom attended that private party, fueling support for the recall, I wrote about how a meal there felt a bit like sneaking onto an opulent spaceship, orbiting a burning planet. I was uncomfortable with its excess.The restaurant’s luxurious ingredients, meticulous techniques and impeccable, formal service appeared as a kind of culinary anachronism. The 10-course tasting menu cost about $350 per person, and, during the pandemic, the restaurant started private indoor dining at $850 per person.It’s no surprise the restaurant has become such an essential part of the recall narrative. Dinner at The French Laundry isn’t so much dinner anymore as it is a status symbol, like macaroni and cheese served in a giant golden egg. More

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      What Time Do Polls Open and Close in California? Full Guide to Recall Election

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      Early returns suggest that California’s huge Democratic base is rallying for Gov. Gavin Newsom, who was elected in 2018 in a landslide. There are more than 40 competitors on the ballot.Follow our live updates on the California Recall Election.California voters will decide whether to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom on Tuesday, concluding an idiosyncratic election that has been held in the middle of a pandemic and closely watched as one of the first big indicators of the country’s political direction since President Biden took office.Democrats feel increasingly confident, predicting that Mr. Newsom will prevail and avert what would be a disaster for the party in California, the nation’s most-populous state. If Mr. Newsom is recalled, his likely replacement would be Larry Elder, a conservative talk radio host who has made a career bashing liberal causes.But the fact that the Democratic governor of a state Mr. Biden won by nearly 30 percentage points is being forced to fight to hold on to his post has highlighted the vulnerabilities of leaders who seemed well positioned before the coronavirus pandemic.Democrats are trying to energize voters without former President Donald J. Trump on the ballot, and a loss — or even a narrow victory — would raise questions about the political clout of Mr. Biden, who campaigned with Mr. Newsom on Monday night.The leading Republicans vying to replace Mr. Newsom have embraced Mr. Trump and his baseless claims of a stolen election, an early signal of the party’s unwillingness or inability to distance itself from the former president.Even if the peculiar nature of California’s recall elections does not offer a perfect barometer of the national mood, much is at stake, including the leadership of the world’s fifth-largest economy. Political insiders in both parties note that Mr. Newsom’s fate could have far-reaching national consequences, given the governor’s power to appoint a new senator should a vacancy arise.Gov. Gavin Newsom at a “Vote No” campaign rally in Sun Valley, Calif., on Sunday.Alex Welsh for The New York TimesVoters are being asked two questions: Should Mr. Newsom be recalled? And if that happens, who should replace him? Forty-six candidates, about half of them Republican, are on the ballot, along with seven certified write-in candidates.The winner will serve out the remainder of Mr. Newsom’s term, which ends in January 2023. Regardless of the outcome, there will be another election in a little over a year.When will the polls close? Polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time. Depending on the number of early ballots and the amount of in-person voting on Tuesday, the math could be clear within a few hours of when the polls close, election experts say. But if the race is tighter than expected, weeks could pass while the counting drags on.Follow our live updates and here’s what we’re watching as the results are released.Will the governor survive the recall?Early returns suggest that California’s huge Democratic base is rallying for Mr. Newsom, who was elected in 2018 in a landslide. The governor’s campaign has framed the recall as a power grab by Trump Republicans.If Mr. Newsom is recalled, it will have been because a critical mass of independent voters and Democrats voted against him, which in California would suggest a significant — and improbable — shift to the right.The more likely question is whether the governor wins by a wide or a narrow margin. For a time, polls seemed to indicate that likely voters were unenthusiastic about Mr. Newsom, which triggered a torrent of support from major donors and appearances by national Democratic figures, including Mr. Biden.A decisive win by Mr. Newsom, as some recent polls predict, would strengthen him heading into a campaign for a second term in 2022 and perhaps even position him for national office. But if Mr. Newsom prevails by only a couple of percentage points, he could face a primary challenge next year.How many Republicans will cast ballots?Republicans represent only a quarter of California’s registered voters. Since the 1990s, when the party’s anti-immigrant stances alienated Latinos, their numbers have been in decline. Proponents have presented the recall as a way to check the power of Democrats, who control all statewide offices and the Legislature. Republicans also say the battle has animated their party’s base.But Republican support and money for the recall has failed to approach Mr. Newsom’s large operation and war chest. And Mr. Elder’s candidacy appears to be further branding the G.O.P. as far-right by California standards. Support for moderates like Kevin Faulconer, the former mayor of San Diego, is in the single digits, polls indicate.Supporters of Larry Elder gather during a campaign stop at Monterey Park City Hall on Monday. Alex Welsh for The New York TimesCritics of the G.O.P. under Mr. Trump say a failure to remove Mr. Newsom could further diminish Republican influence in California and accentuate the nation’s polarization.How will Latinos vote?Latinos are the largest ethnic group in California, making up roughly 30 percent of registered voters — a largely Democratic constituency that has shaped the state’s governance for decades.But to the consternation of Mr. Newsom’s party and the great interest of the recall backers, Latinos have been slow to weigh in on his ouster, thanks to a combination of distraction — many voters are more focused on navigating the pandemic — and ambivalence, both about Mr. Newsom specifically and the Democratic Party as a whole.Critics have warned that California Democrats have unwisely assumed that the Latino electorate would be animated by memories of Republican anti-immigrant policies, rather than trying to woo Latinos with their vision for the future.That has stirred speculation over whether the fast-growing Latino vote, in California and elsewhere, may be up for grabs by candidates willing to put in the work to engage those voters. After Republicans peeled away significant amounts of Latino support across the country during the 2020 election, a poor showing by Latino voters in the recall could spark a new round of Democratic soul-searching.How influential will mail-in ballots be?Every registered, active voter in California was sent a ballot in an extension of pandemic voting rules. Initiated in 2020 to keep voters and poll workers safe, the system helped boost turnout to more than 70 percent in the presidential election. This month, lawmakers voted to make the system permanent.California election officials say voting ran smoothly in 2020. But Republicans have contended that mailed-in ballots invite cheating, echoing Mr. Trump’s baseless claim that Democrats had used them to steal the presidential election.Last week, in an appearance on Newsmax, the former president claimed without evidence that the recall election was “probably rigged.”Conservative groups seeking evidence of voter fraud have been asking Californians to alert them to recall ballots that arrive in the mail addressed to deceased people or to voters not residing at their address.The warnings about voting by mail appear to have had an effect: Republicans have proven themselves reluctant to embrace the practice — a trend that worries some in the party as more states adopt mail-in balloting. Still, the night before the election, almost 40 percent of all registered voters had already cast their ballots, a hefty share that suggests the ease of voting early and by mail will enhance turnout in what is an unusually timed special election.Voters turned in ballots outside the Alameda County Courthouse in Oakland on Monday.Jim Wilson/The New York TimesThat bodes well for Mr. Newsom, who is relying on the state’s enormous base of Democratic voters: The greater the overall turnout, his campaign says, the better his chances.Still, analysts are watching to see whether significant numbers of Republican voters vote in person on Tuesday, and whether younger and Latino voters will join them.What will the vote say about pandemic policies?Had Covid-19 not set the stage, Mr. Newsom arguably would not be fighting for his job now. But lately, he has progress to report. Cases have declined this month in California, where wearing face masks indoors has become a fact of life in many places, and some 80 percent of eligible people have gotten at least one vaccine dose.In recent weeks, Mr. Newsom has trumpeted California’s approach, noting that mask and vaccination requirements have lowered new cases to half of the rates reported in Republican-run states.Californians have said no issue matters more to them than conquering the coronavirus. Broad support for Mr. Newsom, beyond Democratic voters, could signal to policymakers elsewhere — including in some of the dozens of other states with governors’ races next year — that strong health policies can be good politics.Other Democratic candidates on the ballot this fall have also leaned into policies like mask and vaccine mandates while raising alarms that their Republican opponents would undo those measures. Mr. Biden has followed suit, offering stricter policies around mandates and tougher talk aimed at Republican governors.How will Trump affect the race?For four years, Democrats enjoyed enormous gains thanks to Mr. Trump. The former president energized party activists, helped their candidates raise mountains of campaign cash and drove their voters to the polls in record numbers.Mr. Newsom has tried to sustain that source of inspiration, offering frequent warnings about the continuation of “Trumpism” in American political life. His recall election offers the first major test of whether the specter of the former president still has the power to mobilize liberal voters while keeping moderates voting Democratic.On the Republican side, the leading candidates have embraced Mr. Trump’s political playbook, offering baseless allegations of election fraud and “rigged” votes. Mr. Elder has refused to say if he will accept the results of the election.Not all Republicans agree with this playbook. Some worry it could cause some Republicans to stay home because they believe their votes will not count, and low turnout could lend credence to that argument. More

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      Revocatoria en California: estas son las claves

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      Los primeros informes sugieren que la gran base demócrata de California apoya al gobernador Newsom, que arrasó en 2018, cuando fue electo. En la boleta hay más de 40 contendientes para sustituirlo.Los votantes de California decidirán el martes si destituyen al gobernador Gavin Newsom, lo que pone fin a una elección peculiar que ha transcurrido en medio de una pandemia y ha sido observada con atención como uno de los primeros grandes indicadores de la dirección política que tomará el país después de que el presidente Joe Biden asumió el mando.Los demócratas se sienten cada vez más confiados y anticipan que Newsom permanecerá en el cargo y evitarán lo que sería un desastre para el partido en California, el estado más poblado del país. Si Newsom es revocado, su reemplazo más probable sería Larry Elder, un presentador de la radio conservadora que ha hecho una carrera atacando las causas liberales.Pero el hecho de que el gobernador demócrata de un estado que Biden ganó por casi 30 puntos porcentuales se vea obligado a luchar para conservar su puesto ha puesto de manifiesto las vulnerabilidades de los líderes que parecían bien posicionados antes de la pandemia de coronavirus.Los demócratas intentan motivar a los votantes sin la presencia del expresidente Donald Trump en la papeleta y una derrota –e incluso una victoria muy ajustada– crearía dudas sobre la influencia política de Biden, que hizo campaña a favor de Newsom la noche del lunes.Los principales republicanos que compiten por reemplazar a Newsom se han alineado con Trump y sus afirmaciones infundadas de que la elección de 2020 estuvo amañada, una señal temprana de la falta de voluntad o incapacidad del partido para distanciarse del expresidente.Incluso si la naturaleza peculiar de las elecciones revocatorias de California no ofrece un barómetro perfecto del estado de ánimo nacional, hay mucho en juego, incluido el liderazgo de la quinta economía más grande del mundo. Los expertos políticos de ambos partidos señalan que el destino de Newsom podría tener consecuencias nacionales de gran alcance, dado el poder del gobernador para nombrar un nuevo senador en caso de que surja una vacante.El gobernador Gavin Newsom en un mitin de la campaña “Vota No” en Sun Valley, California, el domingoAlex Welsh para The New York TimesA los votantes se les ha pedido responder dos preguntas: ¿Newsom debe ser revocado? Y, si eso sucede, ¿quién debe reemplazarlo? En la boleta aparecen 46 candidatos, alrededor de la mitad de ellos son republicanos y también participan siete candidatos certificados que pueden añadirse a mano.El ganador gobernará por el resto del mandato de Newsom, que concluye en enero de 2023. Sin importar el resultado, habrá otra elección en poco más de un año.Las urnas cerrarán a las 8 p.m. hora del Pacífico. Sigue nuestra página de resultados y cobertura de la elección y sus implicaciones en nytimes.com.Esto es lo que estaremos monitoreando mientras llegan los resultados:¿El gobernador podrá sobrevivir a la revocatoria?Los primeros resultados sugieren que la gran base demócrata de California apoya a Newsom, quien fue electo en 2018 con una gran ventaja. La campaña del gobernador ha presentado la campaña revocatoria como un intento de los republicanos de Trump por hacerse con el poder.Si Newsom es revocado, será porque una gran cantidad de electores independientes y demócratas votaron en su contra, lo cual en California sería señal de un giro significativo e improbable a la derecha.La duda es si el gobernador gana con margen amplio o estrecho. Durante un tiempo, las encuestas parecían indicar que los probables votantes no se mostraban muy entusiasmados respecto a Newsom, lo que causó un torrente de apoyo por parte de grandes donantes así como la aparición de personajes demócratas de importancia nacional, entre ellos Biden.Una victoria decisiva de Newsom, como predicen algunas encuestas recientes, lo fortalecería de cara a una campaña para un segundo mandato en 2022 y quizás incluso lo posicionaría para ocupar un cargo a nivel nacional. Pero si Newsom se queda en la gobernatura por solo un par de puntos porcentuales, podría enfrentar un desafío primario el próximo año.¿Cuántos republicanos van a votar?Los republicanos representan solo una cuarta parte de los votantes registrados de California. Desde la década de 1990, cuando las posturas antiinmigrantes del partido alejaron a los latinos, su número ha disminuido. Los proponentes de la revocatoria la han presentado como una forma de fiscalizar el poder de los demócratas, que controlan todas las oficinas estatales y la Legislatura. Los republicanos también dicen que la batalla ha animado la base de su partido.Pero el apoyo republicano y el dinero para la revocatoria no se acercan al gran fondo de financiación y a la operación con que cuenta Newsom. Y la candidatura de Elder parece que ha presentado al Partido Republicano como de extrema derecha, para estándares de California. El apoyo para los moderados como Kevin Faulconer, exalcalde de San Diego, se registra en cifras inferiores al 10 por ciento, según los sondeos.Partidarios de Larry Elder se reúnen durante una parada de campaña en el Ayuntamiento de Monterey Park el lunesAlex Welsh para The New York TimesLos críticos del Partido Republicano durante el mandato de Trump dicen que si no logran revocar a Newsom esto podría disminuir aún más la influencia republicana en California y acentuar la polarización del país.¿Cómo votarán los latinos?Los latinos son el grupo étnico más numeroso de California, comprenden alrededor del 30 por ciento de los votantes registrados y son un gran grupo demócrata que ha dado forma a la gobernanza del estado durante décadas.No obstante, y para consternación del partido de Newsom y gran interés de los partidarios de la revocatoria, los latinos no han acudido rápidamente a participar, en parte debido a la distracción —muchos votantes están más ocupados sorteando la pandemia— y a la ambivalencia, tanto respecto a Newsom en particular como al Partido Demócrata en general.Los críticos han advertido que los demócratas de California han asumido, equivocadamente, que el electorado latino se sentiría motivado por el recuerdo de las políticas antiinmigrantes republicanas, en lugar de apostar por atraer a los latinos con una visión para el futuro.Esto ha avivado la especulación sobre la posibilidad de que en California y el resto del país el voto latino, de rápido crecimiento, esté disponible para los candidatos dispuestos a esforzarse por conectar con estos electores. Luego de que los republicanos se llevaron una parte significativa del apoyo latino en todo el país durante la elección de 2020, la ausencia de los latinos en las urnas podría generar un nuevo episodio de introspección demócrata.¿Cuán influyentes serán las boletas de votos por correo?A cada votante registrado y activo en California se le envió una boleta como parte de una extensión de las reglas de votación pandémica. El sistema, iniciado en 2020 para mantener seguros a los votantes y los trabajadores electorales, ayudó a aumentar la participación a más del 70 por ciento en las elecciones presidenciales. Este mes, los legisladores votaron para que el sistema sea permanente.Los funcionarios electorales de California dijeron que la votación transcurrió sin problemas en 2020. Pero los republicanos han dicho que las papeletas enviadas por correo invitan a la trampa, lo cual es similar al reclamo, sin fundamento, que hizo Trump al decir que los demócratas se habían valido de estas boletas para robar la elección presidencial.La semana pasada, en una participación en Newsmax, el expresidente aseguró, sin proveer evidencia, que la elección revocatoria estaba “probablemente amañada”.Los grupos conservadores que buscan evidencias de fraude electoral han estado pidiendo a los californianos que reporten si reciben por correo papeletas para personas fallecidas o votantes que no residen en su dirección.Las advertencias sobre el voto por correo parecen haber surtido efecto: los republicanos se muestran reacios a aceptar la práctica, una tendencia que preocupa a algunos en el partido dado que más estados están adoptando el sufragio enviado por correo. Aun así, la noche antes de la elección, casi 40 por ciento de todos los votantes registrados habían emitido su voto, una proporción considerable que sugiere que la comodidad de votar anticipadamente y por correo tendrá un efecto positivo en la participación durante una elección en una temporada inusual.Los votantes entregaron las boletas a las puertas del juzgado del condado de Alameda, en Oakland, el lunes.Jim Wilson/The New York TimesEso es un buen augurio para Newsom, que depende de la enorme base de votantes demócratas del estado: cuanto mayor sea la participación general, dice su campaña, mejores serán sus posibilidades.Sin embargo, los analistas están atentos ante la posibilidad de que haya grandes cantidades de votantes republicanos que acudan a votar en persona el martes y se preguntan si los votantes latinos los acompañarán.¿Qué relación tiene el voto con la pandemia?De no ser por el panorama creado por la COVID-19, es probable que Newsom no estaría pelando ahora por mantener su cargo. Pero últimamente ha hecho algunos progresos. Los casos han bajado este mes en California, el uso de mascarillas en interiores es una realidad en muchas zonas del estado y alrededor del 80 por ciento de las personas elegibles se han vacunado con al menos una dosis.En las últimas semanas, Newsom ha alardeado del enfoque de California, señalando que los requisitos de uso de cubrebocas y vacunación han reducido los nuevos casos a la mitad de las tasas reportadas en los estados gobernados por republicanos.Los californianos indican que no hay tema que les importe más que controlar al coronavirus. El amplio apoyo a favor de Newsom, más allá de los votantes demócratas, podría indicarle a otros funcionarios —incluso en otros estados, que tienen elecciones a la gubernatura el año entrante— que las políticas de salud firmes pueden tener un buen impacto político.Otros candidatos demócratas en la boleta este otoño también han apoyado medidas como el uso de mascarilla obligatorio y los requisitos de vacunación al tiempo que llaman la atención sobre la posibilidad de que sus oponentes republicanos pudieran dar marcha atrás a esas medidas. Biden también ha presentado políticas más estrictas y un discurso más duro dirigido hacia los gobernadores republicanos.¿Qué papel tiene Trump en la contienda?Durante cuatro años, los demócratas disfrutaron de enormes ganancias gracias a Trump. El expresidente motivó a los activistas del partido a trabajar para contrarrestarlo, ayudó a sus candidatos a recaudar montañas de dinero en efectivo para la campaña y llevó a sus votantes a las urnas en cifras récord.Newsom ha intentado sostener esa fuente de inspiración y a menudo advierte que el “trumpismo” persiste en la vida política estadounidense. Su elección revocatoria es la primera gran prueba para saber si el espectro del expresidente sigue teniendo poder para movilizar a los votantes liberales al tiempo que anima a los moderados a seguir votando por demócratas.Del lado republicano, los principales candidatos se han entregado al manual de estrategia política de Trump, al hacer afirmaciones, infundadas, de fraude de elección y votos “amañados”. Elder se ha rehusado a indicar si piensa aceptar los resultados de la elección.No todos los republicanos están de acuerdo con esta estrategia. A algunos les preocupa que pueda ocasionar que algunos republicanos se queden en casa porque creen que sus votos no serán respetados, y la baja participación podría dar crédito a ese argumento.Shawn Hubler es corresponsal en California con sede en Sacramento. Antes de unirse al Times en 2020, pasó casi dos décadas cubriendo el estado para Los Angeles Times como reportera itinerante, columnista y escritora de revista. Compartió tres premios Pulitzer con el equipo Metro del periódico. @ShawnHublerLisa Lerer es una corresponsal de política nacional que cubre campañas electorales, votaciones y poder político. @llerer More

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      When Will We Know the California Recall Election Results?

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      Californians have been voting early for weeks in the election to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom.But it is unclear how long it will take to get a definitive answer on whether he will keep his job.Depending on the number of early ballots and the amount of in-person voting on Tuesday, the math could be clear within a few hours of when the polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time, election experts say. But if the race is tighter than expected, weeks could pass while the counting drags on.Recall attempts are a fact of political life for governors of California. But they do not usually make it onto the ballot, and Californians have gone to the polls only one other time to determine whether the state’s top officeholder should be ousted. That was in 2003, when Gov. Gray Davis was recalled and replaced by Arnold Schwarzenegger. Since then, the state’s voting rules and electorate have changed substantially.Because of the safety concerns arising from the coronavirus pandemic, ballots were mailed early to all of the state’s 22 million or so registered and active voters in the 2020 election. Voters can return their completed ballots by mail, deposit them in secure drop boxes, vote early in person or vote at a polling place on Tuesday.Nearly 40 percent of registered voters have already cast ballots, but many Republicans have indicated that they plan to vote in person, citing — without evidence — a concern that election officials in the Democrat-dominated state will tamper with their ballots. Studies after the 2020 election found that the system had worked smoothly, with no systemic voter fraud.Early Democratic ballots have outnumbered Republican ones by two to one, with overwhelming majorities of voters in both parties telling pollsters they plan to vote along party lines. Mr. Newsom is a Democrat, as is about 46 percent of the electorate.But that margin is expected to tighten as Republican voters — who represent fewer than a quarter of registered voters — head to the polls.Vote counts are notoriously slow in California because the state is so massive. The law for this election allows county officials to open and process early ballots as they come in, but those results cannot be shared with the public until the polls close, said Jenna Dresner, a spokeswoman for the California secretary of state’s office.California has 58 counties, and each processes its ballots differently. Results often land later in larger counties, such as Los Angeles County. Officials have 30 days to complete their official canvass and must give vote-by-mail ballots postmarked on Election Day a week to arrive. The certified count is not expected until Oct. 22.Significant partial counts should be available within a couple of hours after polls close in some key areas, such as the Bay Area and Orange County. And the electoral math in California should offer some strong clues about the outcome, said Paul Mitchell, a vice president of Political Data Inc., a nonpartisan supplier of election data.Because so many voters are Democrats, he said, the higher the turnout, the better Mr. Newsom’s chances are of beating the recall. If the overall turnout hits 60 percent, he said, the proposed ouster of Mr. Newsom is almost mathematically impossible. More