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      In California, Republicans Struggle to Expand the Recall’s Appeal

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      California has not been as progressive lately as its reputation would suggest. Yet Republicans have had trouble breaking the recall out of the fringe.THOUSAND OAKS, Calif. — The small faction of Californians who still call themselves Republicans did something seemingly impossible when they forced Gavin Newsom, the Democratic governor of America’s largest Democratic state, to face voters in a recall.It was a side of California often overlooked: the conservative minority that for decades has been on the leading edge of the Republican Party’s transformation into a vehicle for the anti-establishment grievance politics that swept former President Donald J. Trump into office in 2016. The California conservative movement led a national campaign against affirmative action in the 1990s, later shaped the anti-immigration views of the Trump strategists Stephen Miller and Stephen K. Bannon, and gave rise to a new generation of media heavyweights such as Breitbart News and Ben Shapiro.But with Mr. Newsom leading the latest polls before the election on Tuesday, some of those same forces have struggled to gain mainstream support for the recall.California Republicans lack a single, unifying leader who has the ability to appeal beyond the hard right. The hollowed-out state party has left them with few avenues for organizing in such a vast place. And they have been unable to convert the populist anger at the governor over his handling of the pandemic into a broad-based backlash from voters who are right, left and somewhere in between. What started as a fringe campaign to flip the highest office in liberal California and upend the national political calculus seemed to be losing steam with Election Day approaching.Mr. Newsom’s allies blasted the state with advertising that linked the recall to a far-right coalition of conspiracy theorists, anti-vaccine activists and allies of the former president. And mainstream Republican supporters of the recall said the effort had become saddled with too much of the national party’s baggage.“The Republicans have struggled, I think, to identify with clarity that Democrats have been in charge out here for 15 years,” said Doug Ose, a Republican and former three-term congressman who recently dropped out of the race to replace Mr. Newsom after having a heart attack. Instead of focusing on questions such as whether Californians were better off today than they were 15 years ago, Republicans, he said, were being drawn into debates over abortion and other national issues.“Quit taking the bait,” Mr. Ose said of the Republican attention to the Texas abortion law. “Nobody in Texas is going to vote in this election. Why are we talking about what’s happening in Texas?”In a state where Democrats have been adding to their share of the electorate in recent years — now accounting for 46 percent of all registered voters, according to the Public Policy Institute of California — the Republican Party has been steadily shedding voters. Republicans are only 24 percent of the electorate, compared with 35 percent in 2003, the last time the state recalled its Democratic governor, Gray Davis.That is a far cry from the California that produced two Republican presidents — Richard M. Nixon and Ronald Reagan, who was twice elected governor — and that provided a national model for how to run as a celebrity conservative reformer in a deep-blue state: former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.Mr. Schwarzenegger left office in 2011, and the state has not elected a Republican for a statewide seat since then. But if ever there was a time for conservatives to notch a rare, consequential victory in California, this would seem to be it.Residents have been anxious about this latest round of state-mandated, pandemic-related closures, with almost half sharing the mistaken belief that California is in an economic recession, according to one recent study. Jarring reminders of the state’s inability to solve fundamental, perennial problems are everywhere, from the tent cities that lined the Venice boardwalk to wildfires that suffocated Lake Tahoe.And voters have demonstrated an independent streak lately, rejecting progressive initiatives at the ballot box by large margins. Last year, as the state went for President Biden by a margin of nearly 2 to 1, voters defeated a referendum that would have repealed the state’s ban on affirmative action, 57 percent to 43 percent. At the same time, Californians voted in favor of allowing drivers for Uber and other ride-hailing and delivery apps to remain independent contractors, rebuffing a push from labor and progressive groups to classify them as employees who are entitled to wage protections and benefits.In Orange County and other traditionally right-leaning parts of the state, voters who had swung toward the Democratic Party in 2018 swung back in 2020. Four of the 15 seats that Republicans flipped in the House of Representatives in 2020 were in California, including two in Orange County. And despite losing the state, Mr. Trump still received 1.5 million more votes from Californians in 2020 than he did in 2016.“You didn’t see it in the vote for Biden,” said Charles Kessler, a professor at Claremont McKenna College who studies the American right. But the results in California in 2020 overall, Mr. Kessler said, looked like “the beginnings of a kind of revolt against the Hollywood, high-tech San Francisco-led Democratic Party in the state.”Mr. Elder, the recall candidate, comes from the tradition of California conservatives whose appeal is in refusing to appeal to liberals. Jenna Schoenefeld for The New York TimesThe other California — the one of megachurches in the sprawl of the irrigated desert, Trump boat parades and a would-be secessionist enclave near the Oregon border that calls itself the “State of Jefferson” — occasionally finds common cause with moderates and independents to shake up state politics.But Mr. Kessler said that a major difference between today and 2003, when Mr. Schwarzenegger replaced Mr. Davis in the last recall, was that the Republican Party lacked a candidate with crossover appeal. Success, he said, would depend on a candidate “who gives you an alternative to the Democrat without having to embrace another party exactly.”That is not Larry Elder, the Republican front-runner in the recall race.A talk radio host, Mr. Elder comes from the tradition of California conservatives whose appeal was that they refused to appeal to liberals. The list includes Los Angeles-born Andrew Breitbart, the conservative writer and activist who founded Breitbart News, and Mr. Miller, who is the former architect of Mr. Trump’s anti-immigration agenda and who grew up in Santa Monica listening to Mr. Elder’s show.At times, Elder campaign events have felt not all that different from Trump rallies.At a Labor Day rally in the suburb of Thousand Oaks, about 40 miles outside downtown Los Angeles in Ventura County, Mr. Elder drew boos from the crowd when he mentioned The Los Angeles Times, and laughter when he said he intended to “speak slowly” because CNN was there. He dropped the kind of bombs that made him a national name in conservative talk radio, winning applause from of his mostly white audience.“What they’re afraid of,” Mr. Elder said, referring to his Democratic opponents, “is Larry Elder from the hood who went to a public school will be able to make the case to Black and brown people: ‘You are being betrayed. You are being used. You are being manipulated.’”“Racism has never been less significant in America,” added Mr. Elder, who is Black.Shelley Merrell, who runs a fire safety company in Ventura, nodded along as Mr. Elder called systemic racism “a lie” and rattled off statistics about police officers killing unarmed white people in larger numbers than they did Black people. Ms. Merrell, who is white, said that her support for the recall was rooted in her belief that California had become too inhospitable to businesses.“I love my employees, and I just want to give them the best life possible, but it’s getting more and more difficult,” she said as she urged passers-by at the event to take her pro-recall material, including one flier that read, “Don’t Vote By Mail.”The in-your-face, contrarian style of right-wing talk radio hosts who scorn the mainstream media and mock liberals has served Mr. Elder well, helping him build a weekly national audience of 4.5 million listeners. California was the ideal market to build out his brand, as it was for other stars of conservative radio. Rush Limbaugh got his start at KFBK in Sacramento, and Sean Hannity started his career at KCSB in Santa Barbara.But Mr. Elder may find that what works on talk radio is ill-suited to win a statewide election in California.“We cannot simply appeal to ourselves,” said Kevin Faulconer, the former mayor of San Diego and Republican recall candidate whose centrist campaign was often overshadowed by the far-right rhetoric of Mr. Elder. “We can be a party that wins again in California if we focus on solutions, if we focus on reform and if we’re inclusive. You cannot win office in California until you get Democrats and independents.”Kevin Kiley, a lawmaker in the State Assembly and one of the other more moderate Republican recall candidates, said he would not put a conventional political label of left, right or center on the kind of coalition he hopes to appeal to. Cognizant of what having an “R” after his name on the ballot means to many California voters, he has pitched himself as a bridge candidate.“Part of the unique opportunity with this recall is it is a chance to cross party lines,” Mr. Kiley said. “They’re not signing on for four years. They’re signing on for one year.” (If Mr. Newsom is recalled, the winning candidate to replace him would serve out the remainder of his term through 2022.)At the rally in Thousand Oaks, Mr. Elder seemed to acknowledge that his appeal was limited, and pivoted slightly to a more centrist message. He insisted that he was not merely a “Trump supporter” but a Republican through and through — since he cast his last vote for a Democrat in 1976, for former President Jimmy Carter, a decision he said he had regretted ever since.Mr. Kessler, the professor at Claremont McKenna College, said if there was another Republican renaissance coming to California, he doubted that this was the moment. But he also said he doubted that the current state of one-party control was sustainable. “This is a case where I think from the Republican point of view, things have to get worse in the state before they can get better,” he said. More

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      The California Recall Election Is Tomorrow. Here’s Where Things Stand.

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      Democrats have cast more than twice as many ballots as Republicans so far.Gov. Gavin Newsom made a campaign stop in Oakland on Saturday.Jim Wilson/The New York TimesIn fewer than 48 hours, we’ll most likely know who is going to be running the nation’s most populous state next year.In case you need a refresher: On Tuesday evening, polls close in the election that asks Californians whether Gov. Gavin Newsom should be removed from office and, if so, who should replace him. If Newsom is recalled, the person who takes his seat would serve the remainder of his term, set to end in January 2023.It probably goes without saying, but this election is a big deal.Newsom’s possible ouster is only the fourth recall of a governor to make the ballot in U.S. history. It has the potential to put a Republican at the helm of a heavily Democratic state that hasn’t elected a Republican governor since 2006. And the election, as I’m sure you haven’t forgotten, comes as our state is grappling with a pandemic, historic drought, housing crisis and much more.Here’s where things stand on election eve:Newsom’s lead in the polls appears to be growingFor Newsom to keep his job, more than half of voters must mark “no” on the question of whether he should be recalled from office.As of Sunday evening, a polling average compiled by FiveThirtyEight showed 56 percent of Californians opposing the recall and 42 percent supporting it. An average compiled by RealClearPolitics was almost identical.Newsom’s significant lead may be somewhat surprising if you remember how close the race appeared just a few months ago.In July, a poll by The Los Angeles Times and the University of California, Berkeley, found a near 50-50 split on the recall among likely voters. When that same group released new data Friday, 60 percent of likely voters opposed recalling Newsom, more than 21 percentage points higher than the fraction that wanted to oust him.How Newsom probably got aheadSo what changed?Democrats started paying attention. Before ballots arrived in mailboxes last month and polling began to suggest that Newsom might actually lose his job, many liberals probably assumed that the election was a long shot and that they could skip voting.Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in California nearly two-to-one, so the biggest threat to Newsom is Democrats not turning out to vote in big enough numbers to counteract Republican enthusiasm for the ouster.But over the past two months, Newsom has been hammering home the idea that he is all that stands between Californians and Trumpism. The governor’s message is that everything that terrified California liberals about the last president is on the ballot, from vaccine resistance to climate denial, as my colleague Shawn Hubler reports.His argument has been aided by the emergence of the conservative talk radio host Larry Elder, who once called the election of Donald Trump “divine intervention,” as the front-runner vying to take his job.Newsom has also benefited from more than $70 million in campaign contributions, much of it collected in July and August, which has allowed him to out-advertise his opponents in recent weeks.Mail-in ballots being processed in Pomona last week.Frederic J. Brown/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesWhat we know about the returns so farIn this election, as with last year’s, all of the state’s 22 million-plus registered voters were sent mail-in ballots.So although the polls don’t close until tomorrow, 35 percent of registered voters already cast their ballots as of Sunday evening, according to an election tracker from Political Data Inc., a nonpartisan supplier of voter information.Nearly 4.1 million registered Democrats have mailed in their ballots, compared with 1.9 million Republicans and 1.8 million independents, the data shows.It’s unclear how much those figures will shift in the coming days. There are still ballots in the mail, and many Republicans may wait to vote in person.Some political experts predict that turnout may surpass 50 percent of registered voters, roughly double what’s typically expected for a special election.Paul Mitchell, vice president at Political Data Inc., told The New York Times that if 60 percent of Californians cast their ballots, “it’s almost mathematically impossible for Newsom to lose.”The biggest question, for both sides then, is whether we’ll cross that threshold.For more:Have a question about the recall? The Times has answers.We’ve gotten a lot of email inquiries about what would happen if Newsom resigned before Election Day. My colleague Jill Cowan has that story.In some places in California, there is more than one recall on the ballot. Read more from The Times about other recall efforts.Chuck Lindahl at his home in Chester. In Northern California, a region troubled by fire, many people with disabilities live in areas that lack resources to support them during disasters.Christian Monterrosa for The New York TimesThe rest of the newsstatewide news“We didn’t have a plan”: As wildfires rage across California, rural communities are struggling to ensure the safety of older people as well as those with disabilities.College admissions scandal: Opening statements begin on Monday for the first parents to face trial in a sweeping college admissions case that exposed the role that money plays in the fight for seats at brand-name schools. The first two parents facing trial tried to get their children into the University of Southern California.Loitering for prostitution: The police in California would no longer be able to arrest anyone for loitering with the intent to engage in prostitution under a bill approved by state lawmakers on Friday, reports The Associated Press.Assisted death law: California lawmakers moved to extend and streamline the state’s physician-assisted suicide law, reducing the time terminal patients must wait to acquire the fatal drugs, according to The Associated Press.Other new laws: California lawmakers finished their work for the 2021 legislative session on Friday night. The Associated Press offers a guide on what bills passed, including a bill to decriminalize jaywalking and another requiring ethnic studies in high school.SOUTHERN CALIFORNIAFire shuts down highway: A fire erupted Saturday afternoon in northern Los Angeles County that prompted officials to shut down a section of Interstate 5, The Associated Press reports.Reinforcing coastal bluffs: Construction begins this month on a nearly 300-foot-long sea wall to protect the coastal bluffs below the heavily traveled railroad tracks in Del Mar in San Diego County, reports The San Diego Union-Tribune.Unvaccinated couple dies of Covid: An Inland Empire family is left reeling after a father of five dies of Covid-19 just weeks after his wife, KTLA reports.Joining the military: As part of a Sept. 11 memorial ceremony at the Nixon Library, five young men took the U.S. Army Oath of Service to join the military.Vaccine mandate: West Hollywood city officials have announced that people must show proof of vaccination against Covid-19 to enter restaurants, bars, gyms and other businesses with indoor operations, according to The Los Angeles Times.CENTRAL CALIFORNIAWildfires: Multiple wildfires started by a recent lightning storm continued to grow in steep, difficult-to-reach areas of Sequoia National Park and were zero percent contained as of Sunday afternoon, according to The Fresno Bee.Lack of drinking water: Two Fresno County towns with no drinking water are drowning in debt while hope fades for a new well, reports The Fresno Bee.NORTHERN CALIFORNIAFirst transgender bishop: The Evangelical Lutheran Church in America installed its first openly transgender bishop in a service held in San Francisco’s Grace Cathedral over the weekend, according to The Associated Press.Coronavirus: Mayor Darrell Steinberg of Sacramento has tested positive for Covid-19, reports The Sacramento Bee.Patrick’s Point State Park: The long-contested name of the popular Northern California state park may soon change for good, SFGATE reports.Bryan Gardner for The New York TimesWhat we’re eatingThis one-pot orzo with tomatoes, corn and zucchini is inspired by the bountiful produce of late summer.Where we’re travelingToday’s California travel tip comes from Rebecca Fahrlander, a reader who lives in Bellevue, Neb. Rebecca writes:One of my favorite destinations in the Golden State is Shelter Island in San Diego. I stay at Humphrey’s, a great concert venue and beach hotel all in one. I have traveled there many summers to hear my favorite rock groups such as The Moody Blues in concert, right next to the Pacific Ocean; to walk along the coast, and take in all that is wonderful about SoCal.Tell us about your favorite places to visit in California. Please include your name and where you live, so we can share your tip in the newsletter. Email your suggestions to CAtoday@nytimes.com.Cole HockenburyAnd before you go, some good newsThe bride and groom wore wet suits to their wedding. Hers was white, and his was painted to look like a tuxedo.The couple, who met in Los Angeles in 2018, decided against a more common ceremony on the beach and instead opted for an ocean wedding. Like, in the Pacific Ocean.The groom is a surfer and being in the water “connected us to something greater,” the bride told The Times. Plus, it was free.So last month, the couple bobbed on surfboards off Hermosa Beach and exchanged vows and silicon rings.The groom told The Times: “The fish were jumping, the dolphin popped up; it was like they were our guests celebrating with us.”Thanks for reading. I’ll be back tomorrow. — SoumyaP.S. Here’s today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Where there’s …. (5 letters).Miles McKinley and Briana Scalia contributed to California Today. You can reach the team at CAtoday@nytimes.com.Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. More

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      Covid Isn’t Finished Messing With Politics

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      Bret Stephens: Hi, Gail. I’m trying to keep an open mind — OK, semi-open — about what to think of Joe Biden’s Covid vaccination mandates. I have no problem with the president requiring federal employees to get the shot. I have no problem with businesses large or small requiring the same. Their houses, their rules.But the civil libertarian in me doesn’t love the idea of this or any president using administrative powers to force vaccines on the people who refuse to get them. Your thoughts?Gail Collins: Well, Bret, if Biden was rounding up the non-vaxxers, having them tied down and inoculated by force — the way many Republicans seem to be drawing the picture — I’d certainly have reservations. But in effect he’s saying that they shouldn’t be allowed in certain places where infection is relatively easy to spread, like workplaces or public buildings.This is a serious, serious health crisis and I don’t think I’d want the president to content himself with giving pep talks.And don’t I remember a previous conversation in which you suggested the non-vaccinated didn’t deserve to be allowed in hospitals if they got sick?Bret: Not exactly, but close. The most elegant policy riposte to the anti-vaxxers — and I mean the willful ones, not the people who simply haven’t had access to the shot or have a compelling medical excuse — is to refuse to allow Medicare or Medicaid to pay their medical bills in the event they become seriously ill. Private health insurers might also follow suit. I accept that people don’t want the government or their employer telling them what to do with their bodies. But these same people shouldn’t expect someone else to bail them out of their terrible health decisions.I have another reservation about what Biden’s doing. Right now, the vast majority of Covid-related hospitalizations are happening among the unvaccinated, which is further proof the shots work. I understand that puts doctors and nurses under a lot of strain, though Covid hospitalizations seem to be declining and the surgeries that are being put off are mainly elective. Otherwise, I don’t see the latest Covid spike as the same kind of issue it was a year or so ago. It’s gone from being a public-health crisis to a nincompoop-health crisis.Gail: Imagining that as a new political slogan …Bret: Is “nincompoop” too strong? How about “total geniuses if they do say so themselves,” instead? Anyway, as anti-vaxxers are mostly putting themselves at serious risk of getting seriously ill, I don’t see the need for a presidential directive, including the renewed mask mandates, which only diminish the incentive to get vaccinated. No doubt I’m missing a few things …Gail: As someone who hates hates hates wearing a mask, I love the idea of getting rid of them. And there are a lot of public places now where I see signs basically saying: If you’re vaccinated, mask wearing is up to you.But in my neighborhood, where most of the people I see on the streets are long since vaccinated, a lot of folks wear masks even when they’re just walking around. It’s more convenient if you’re popping in and out of stores or mass transit, but I like to think they also want to remind the world that we’re still fighting back a pandemic, which is easier if everybody works together.Bret: There are people, particularly the immunocompromised, who have a solid medical or emotional need to take great precautions, including masks, and I totally respect them. The busybodies and virtue-signalers, not so much.Gail: On another presidential matter, I noticed your last column was somewhat, um … negative on the Biden presidency. You really think it’s been that bad?Bret: In hindsight, the headline, “Another Failed Presidency at Hand,” probably took the argument a step farther than the column itself. It’s too early to say that the Biden presidency has failed. But people who wish the president success — and that includes me — need to grasp the extent to which he’s in deep political trouble. It isn’t just the Afghan debacle, or worrisome inflation, or his predictions about the end of the pandemic when the virus had other ideas. I think he has misread his political mandate, which was to be a moderate, unifying leader in the mold of George Bush Sr., not a transformational one in the mold of Lyndon Johnson. And he’s trying to do this on the strength of Kamala Harris’s tiebreaking vote in the Senate. I think it’s a recipe for more social division and political failure.Gail: As reviews go, that’s certainly a downer.Bret: None of this is to commend the not-so-loyal opposition party. But they’re the ones who stand to gain most from a weak Biden presidency.Gail: Looking at it from my end, we have a president who’s got to make the country feel it’s not trapped in an unhealthy, unhappy, overall-depressed state forever. I’m buying into big change, which requires more than a gentle hand at the wheel. But back to your Biden critique. You said you voted for him last time but now he has revealed himself to be “headstrong,” “shaky” and “inept.” What if Donald Trump runs against him?Bret: One of the reasons I’m so dismayed by Biden’s performance is that it’s going to tempt Trump to run again. In which case, I’ll vote for whoever is most likely to beat Trump. Hell, I’d probably even vote for Bernie. I’d rather have a president who’s a danger to the economy and national security than one who’s a danger to democracy and national sanity.Gail: I do like imagining you walking around town with a Bernie button.Bret: Let’s not take this too far! Hopefully it will work out differently. Bill Clinton managed to straighten out his presidency after a terrible start that included the Black Hawk Down incident in Somalia and the failure of Hillary Clinton’s health care plan. But that means tacking back toward the center. If I were Ron Klain, the White House chief of staff, I’d be quietly pushing Nancy Pelosi to pass a “clean” $1 trillion infrastructure bill that gives the president the big bipartisan win that he really needs now.Gail: And has all the stuff that you like.Bret: As for his $3.5 trillion social-spending behemoth, he might consider breaking up the bill into separate items of legislation to bring the headline price tag down. If this stuff is as popular as progressives claim, they should be able to score some legislative victories piece by piece.Gail: Sounds reasonable outside the reality of our modern-day Congress, in which the idea of passing more than one bill on anything seems way, way more difficult than firing a shuttle into space.Bret: In the meantime, we’ve got a recall election coming up in California, for which polling shows Governor Newsom will likely survive. I’m not Newsom’s biggest fan, but the whole idea of recall elections seems … unsound.Gail: Yeah, California makes it relatively easy to gather enough signatures for a recall vote, and this is a good example of why that’s bad. Newsom has been one of the strongest governors when it comes to pandemic-fighting, and while that’s great, the restrictions have been around for so long it’s left a lot of people feeling really cranky.Bret: I’m making my quizzical face. Go on.Gail: Then we had one of the worst political errors in recent American political history, when Newsom snuck off to a very fancy restaurant for a maskless birthday dinner for a lobbyist pal. Who wouldn’t have muttered “this guy has to go”?Bret: It was also emblematic of out-of-touch California elites who live on a totally different planet from the one in which there’s a housing crisis, a homelessness crisis, an affordability crisis, an addiction crisis, a pension crisis, a schooling crisis, a power-outage crisis, a wildfires crisis, a water-shortage crisis and maybe even another Kardashian crisis — all in a state that’s under almost complete Democratic Party control.Gail: But now recall reality is creeping in. People are looking at the conservative Republican who’d probably wind up as Newsom’s successor and realizing there are way worse things than a tone-deaf politician.Bret: California could really benefit from breaking up the Democrats’ electoral monopoly. Too bad the state Republican Party did itself so much damage with its terrible anti-immigration stance in the 1990s.Gail: Having two consistently competitive parties is good — when a party has hope of winning an election, it’s less likely to snap up a crazy person or a ridiculous person as a candidate. Which I’m afraid does get us over to Newson’s potential Republican successor, Larry Elder. Speaking of Republicans, anybody coming up now who’s winning your heart?Bret: Liz Cheney: gutsy and principled. Adam Kinzinger: ditto. Ben Sasse: decent and smart. Larry Hogan: ditto. John McCain: historic, heroic, humane — but tragically deceased. Basically, all the folks whose chances of surviving in the current G.O.P. are about as great as a small herd of gazelles in a crocodile-infested river.Gail: You’ve picked five Republicans, none of them stars on the rise and one long since passed away. Trump still has a grip on the heart of the party. Which is why I haven’t given up hope that we’ll lasso you back into voting Democratic in 2024.But way, way more topics for discussion before that. Have a good week, Bret, and let’s make a date to discuss the results of the California recall next time. If Newsom wins, we’re all going to be watching avidly to see where he holds his victory party.Bret: He should try holding it at an actual laundromat this time, not the French Laundry.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Newsom Gets Backing From Many Newspaper Editorial Boards

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      Despite a concerted effort from conservatives to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom of California, most newspaper editorials in the state continue to endorse him and are strongly recommending not to vote him out of office. Many publications across the state are asking readers to overlook Mr. Newsom’s shortcomings and focus on his legislative agenda and his overall leadership during the pandemic.The editorial board of The Los Angeles Times, the largest newspaper in the state, said that replacing Mr. Newsom with “an untested and unprepared alternative who wouldn’t represent the values of most Californians” would be disastrous.The paper acknowledged Newsom’s “missteps” — including issuing rigid public health mandates during the pandemic but then being photographed dining unmasked with a large group — but called these minor compared with “the good he has done for California as one of the nation’s strongest leaders on the COVID-19 pandemic.”The San Francisco Chronicle similarly urged its readers to vote on the recall “with a resounding no.” The editorial board echoed a similar argument that, while he has not been perfect, Mr. Newsom is better than the alternative.“It’s true that the governor managed the pandemic unevenly and imposed precautions inconsistently even as he violated their spirit with his infamous French Laundry soiree,” its editorial board wrote, referring to the restaurant where the governor dined unmasked. The board added that the state still “has weathered the crisis better than the nation.”In San Jose, the editorial board of The Mercury News slammed Larry Elder, a conservative talk radio host who is running, stating that he “has zero experience in elected office and is a Donald Trump clone who would impose his right-wing, extremist views on California in every way possible.”The Sacramento Bee, in also discouraging Mr. Newsom’s removal, stated that the governor’s three strongest potential replacements: Mr. Elder, along with Kevin Faulconer, a former mayor of San Diego, and the businessman John Cox are all “shamefully uninformed and unqualified.”The Orange County Register, one of the few conservative-leaning publications in the state with an editorial board, came out in support of the recall, questioning Mr. Newsom’s management of issues like wildfires and education.The paper championed Mr. Elder as the obvious pick — and said that its stance on a recall was less about the governor’s handling of the pandemic and more about a series of concerns including increased rates of homelessness, crime and poverty.“Our problem with Newsom’s leadership is more fundamental,” it wrote. “Pick an issue and the state’s failures are obvious.” More

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      California Has a Lot of Recall Attempts, and Not Just for Governors

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      While all eyes were on Gov. Gavin Newsom, a developer in Sonoma County was charging forward with an effort to recall the district attorney who had sued his company.All around California, other officials were facing recall campaigns, too. A member of the Fallbrook Union High School District board of trustees. A councilwoman in Kingsburg. A councilman in Morgan Hill. The mayors of Huntington Beach and Placerville, council members in Huntington Beach and Placerville, school board or board of education members in Chico, Santa Monica, Cupertino, Sunnyvale, Elk Grove and oh my goodness, are you tired yet?Recalls are a dime a dozen in California, and to read through the rationales for them is to confront a deluge of grievances, some serious and others remarkably petty.The recall efforts are because she voted against resuming full-time in-person schooling. Because of zoning disputes. Because she “has demonstrated a Marxist/socialist agenda.” Because of his homelessness policies. Because she declined to prosecute a police brutality case. Because he ostensibly “lacks mental competence.” Because she was convicted of welfare fraud several years before she was elected.If history is a guide, most of these campaigns will never come to a vote. But two, in addition to Mr. Newsom’s, will be on the ballot on Tuesday.The first is in wine country north of San Francisco, and its target is Jill Ravitch, the Sonoma County district attorney. The campaign is led by a local developer, Bill Gallaher, whose company was sued by her office in connection with the abandonment of residents of an assisted-living facility during a 2017 wildfire. (The case was ultimately settled.) Mr. Gallaher, who has said the recall is in service of “steady, competent leadership overseeing public safety in our county,” has bankrolled the campaign himself.The second is a convoluted saga concerning William Davis and Melissa Ybarra, who are on the City Council in Vernon and had backed a successful recall campaign this year against two other council members who had supported a solar and wind energy project whose developer was involved in an embezzlement investigation.Now those recalled council members, Diana Gonzales and Carol Menke, are supporting the new recall campaign, alleging — according to The Los Angeles Daily News — that Ms. Ybarra engaged in nepotism as the city’s housing commissioner and that Mr. Davis is mentally incompetent. Ms. Ybarra and Mr. Davis say the campaign is just retaliation.Before this year of two recall elections, Vernon — a city just southeast of Los Angeles that has a mere 108 residents — had never had one. More

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      La estrategia del gobernador de California frente a la revocatoria: ‘Gavin Newsom contra el abismo’

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      Conforme se acerca la votación en la que podría ser destituido, el gobernador invoca a una figura familiar de la política estadounidense: el expresidente Donald Trump.SACRAMENTO — A medida que la campaña para destituirlo llega a su último fin de semana, el gobernador de California, Gavin Newsom, está insistiendo en la opción que ha presentado a los votantes desde el comienzo del proceso para la revocatoria: o Donald Trump o él.“Derrotamos a Trump el año pasado, y gracias, pero no hemos derrotado al trumpismo”, ha repetido el gobernador durante las dos últimas semanas en un bombardeo de recorridos de campaña y llamadas por Zoom. Desde la resistencia a las vacunas hasta el negacionismo climático, dice, todo lo que aterrorizaba a los liberales californianos sobre el último presidente está en la papeleta. Y mucho más que su propio futuro personal pende de un hilo: “Es una cuestión de vida o muerte”.Sus oponentes lo cuestionan. El gobernador, dicen, es el problema, y la destitución nunca habría llegado a unas elecciones si una masa crítica del estado no se hubiera resentido por sus restricciones pandémicas a las empresas y las aulas, incluso cuando sus propias finanzas estaban seguras y sus hijos recibían instrucción en persona. El expresidente, señalan, no es candidato. “Newsom es un alarmista”, tuiteó recientemente David Sacks, un capitalista de riesgo de Silicon Valley que apoya la destitución.Solo tres gobernadores se han enfrentado a votaciones de destitución en Estados Unidos antes que Newsom, y él —y el poder demócrata— está haciendo todo lo posible por presentar el esfuerzo como una toma de poder radical, con algunos partidarios incluso comparándolo en un momento dado con el violento intento del 6 de enero de bloquear la elección del presidente Joe Biden.Al invocar a Trump como su oponente de elección, Newsom está retomando un mensaje que ha usado en el pasado para mitigar las críticas de manera efectiva, mientras que también está probando una estrategia que es probable que se replique entre los demócratas que buscan movilizar a los votantes en las elecciones intermedias en todo el país el próximo año.En efecto, el líder que los californianos eligieron por abrumadora mayoría en 2018 no se postula siguiendo las políticas demócratas de un demócrata que busca reelegirse tanto como atendiendo un llamado a la acción urgente, aunque conocido, contra una amenaza existencial a los valores del estado azul.Las encuestas sugieren que Newsom está siendo convincente, y se ha adelantado a sus oponentes, un súbito enfoque de las mentes demócratas después de que los probables votantes indicaron a principios de este verano que la carrera se podría estar apretando. Una encuesta publicada la semana pasada por el Instituto de Políticas Públicas de California reveló que solo el 39 por ciento de los posibles votantes, en su mayoría republicanos, apoyan la destitución, mientras que el 58 por ciento piensa votar en contra.Su ventaja entre las votantes ha sido especialmente sólida, reforzada en los últimos días por las apariciones de la vicepresidenta Kamala Harris y las senadoras Elizabeth Warren y Amy Klobuchar. El presidente Biden hará campaña con él el lunes y el expresidente Barack Obama y el senador Bernie Sanders aparecen en sus anuncios de campaña.Ha acumulado unos 70 millones de dólares en contribuciones contra la revocatoria. Eso es menos que los cientos de millones de dólares que se gastaron el año pasado, por ejemplo, en la lucha por una iniciativa sobre la protección laboral de los trabajadores por obra, pero aún así es mucho más que el dinero acumulado por los otros 46 aspirantes en la votación. Además, su equipo ha movilizado un enorme esfuerzo de captación de votos con decenas de miles de voluntarios que envían mensajes de texto a decenas de millones de votantes y hacen campaña por él en siete idiomas.El gobernador también ha tenido avances en la lucha contra el coronavirus, ya que los nuevos casos se han estabilizado en todo el estado y el 80 por ciento de los californianos que cumplen los requisitos han recibido al menos una dosis de la vacuna. Por el contrario, Orrin Heatlie, un republicano que es sargento jubilado de la oficina del alguacil de la zona rural del norte de California y principal promotor de la revocatoria, no ha podido hacer campaña últimamente por la iniciativa que él mismo puso en marcha. En una entrevista por mensaje de texto, Heatlie dijo que estaba enfermo en casa con COVID-19.El panorama ha reforzado la afirmación del gobernador de que su destitución socavaría la voluntad de la mayoría de los californianos, y ha recordado a los votantes que la destitución era una posibilidad remota hasta la pandemia. Los californianos, que al principio apoyaban las órdenes sanitarias de Newsom, se cansaron de las complicadas órdenes sanitarias del gobernador. El descontento llegó a su punto álgido en noviembre, cuando Newsom fue visto sin mascarilla en un exclusivo restaurante de la región vitivinícola después de instar al público a evitar reunirse. Una orden judicial que ampliaba el plazo para la recogida de firmas debido a los cierres por la pandemia permitió a los partidarios de la revocación aprovechar el malestar.La vicepresidenta Kamala Harris en un mitin a favor del gobernador Gavin Newsom en San Leandro, California, el miércoles.Jim Wilson/The New York TimesEn California hay 5,3 millones de republicanos, y aunque el estado no hace pública la afiliación partidista de las personas que firman las peticiones, los demócratas señalan que solo se necesitaban 1,5 millones de firmas de votantes para llevar la revocatoria a una elección especial. La mayor parte de la energía y el financiamiento iniciales llegaron de la extrema derecha: los habituales de Fox News, como Newt Gingrich y Mike Huckabee, promovieron la destitución. Los primeros mítines contaron con la presencia de activistas antivacunas, devotos de QAnon y manifestantes vestidos con el eslogan ‘Hacer grande a Estados Unidos de nuevo’.Y, según los demócratas, la derecha ganará a nivel nacional si Newsom es destituido. Si el escaño de la senadora Dianne Feinstein se abre prematuramente, el gobernador de California nombrará a su sustituto, y un republicano cambiaría el control de la cámara al Partido Republicano.Sin embargo, los observadores más veteranos señalan que el enfoque del gobernador también está probado en el tiempo.“La estrategia de Newsom ha consistido en recordar a los votantes lo que se le quitaría si se fuera, en lugar de lo que ha dado mientras está aquí”, escribió recientemente Joe Eskenazi, escritor político de San Francisco, en el sitio de noticias Mission Local, al señalar que el gobernador retrató de forma similar a un oponente progresista como “Gavin Newsom contra el abismo” en su campaña a la alcaldía de San Francisco en 2003.También es una variación de una estrategia desplegada en 2012 por Scott Walker, el exgobernador de Wisconsin y el único gobernador en la historia de Estados Unidos que ha vencido una revocatoria. Walker, un republicano del Tea Party, se enfrentó a una reacción adversa por sus esfuerzos para reducir los derechos de negociación colectiva de la mayoría de los trabajadores públicos. En lugar de adoptar una postura defensiva, Walker describió el intento de destitución como una toma de poder de los sindicatos de empleados públicos.Esta imagen sobrecargó la base republicana del estado y desató un torrente de dinero de donantes conservadores de fuera del estado. La victoria no solo salvó el puesto de Walker, sino que también impulsó su perfil político nacional.El futuro político de Newsom depende ahora de ese tipo de movilización. Las matemáticas están de su lado.Los demócratas superan en número a los republicanos casi dos a uno en California. Su campaña ha actuado con antelación para disuadir a cualquier aspirante demócrata fuerte. E incluso con sus críticos, Newsom parece tener más apoyo que cuando los californianos destituyeron al exgobernador Gray Davis y lo sustituyeron por Arnold Schwarzenegger en 2003. En aquel momento, siete de cada diez votantes desaprobaban la actuación de Davis.Las reglas de votación pandémica que impulsaron la participación a un récord de 81 por ciento de los votantes registrados en 2020 siguen vigentes, lo que permite que los más de 22 millones de votantes registrados del estado voten gratis por correo.Paul Mitchell, vicepresidente de Political Data Inc., un proveedor de información sobre los votantes que no se inclina por ningún partido, dijo que casi el 30 por ciento del electorado ya ha votado, con la participación de los votantes independientes significativamente retrasada y con muchas más boletas demócratas que republicanas hasta ahora.“Si llegan al 60 por ciento de participación”, dijo Mitchell, “es casi matemáticamente imposible que Newsom pierda”.Orrin Heatlie, la figura más visible a favor de la revocatoria, en su casa en Folsom, California, en febreroMax Whittaker para The New York TimesPero no hay garantía de que lleguen a esa “cifra dorada”. La participación entre los votantes jóvenes y latinos ha sido “ínfima”, dijo. Hasta hace poco, las encuestas mostraban que muchos demócratas no sabían que había una revocatoria.Y Newsom, a pesar del 53 por ciento de aprobación de su trabajo, no ha tenido la popularidad personal de, por ejemplo, el exgobernador Jerry Brown, su predecesor. El gobernador debe rechazar la destitución con decisión, dijo Steve Maviglio, un consultor político demócrata de California, “porque si el margen es estrecho, habrá sangre en el agua”, lo que podría complicar la reelección de Newsom en 2022.La papeleta de votación pide a los californianos que respondan a dos preguntas: ¿debería Newsom ser destituido, y si es así, quién debería reemplazarlo? Si una mayoría simple vota no a la primera pregunta, la segunda es discutible. Pero si se aprueba la destitución, el puesto de gobernador será para el aspirante más votado, aunque solo una pequeña parte del electorado lo elija, una característica que ha provocado pedidos de reforma por parte de los críticos.Nathan Click, antiguo portavoz del gobernador que ahora trabaja en contra de la destitución, dijo que el equipo de Newsom comprendió desde el principio que tendría que presentar sus argumentos con rapidez. Ya en diciembre —seis meses antes de que la revocatoria estuviera oficialmente calificada para la votación— los partidarios del gobernador hicieron eco del lenguaje de sus respuestas a la petición oficial, denunciando a los proponentes como “extremistas antivacunas pro-Trump”.En enero, el presidente del Partido Demócrata del estado llamó a la destitución “un golpe de estado en California”, comparándolo con la insurrección del 6 de enero. Y en marzo, Newsom utilizó su discurso sobre el “estado del estado” para denunciar a los “críticos de California que están promoviendo una toma de poder político partidista”.Ahora, el nombre de la campaña de Newsom —“Paren la revocatoria republicana”— pretende movilizar al partido dominante del estado. Sus anuncios de televisión y las redes sociales imploran a los votantes que detengan la “descarada toma de poder republicana”.En sus discursos, Newsom ataca al aspirante principal, el locutor conservador Larry Elder, como un clon de Trump que deshará imprudentemente los avances del estado en la lucha contra las infecciones por COVID-19 y “vandalizará” la identidad de California.Larry Elder, el aspirante principal en contra del gobernador Newsom, en un evento de campaña en Thousand Oaks, el lunesAllison Zaucha para The New York TimesAl igual que en el caso de Walker, la estrategia ha inspirado la recaudación de fondos. La ley estatal de financiación de campañas limita las donaciones a los aspirantes individuales, pero trata las revocatorias como iniciativas de los votantes, permitiendo contribuciones ilimitadas. Elder —cuya retórica trumpista ha sido descrita como un regalo para Newsom— ha recaudado hasta ahora unos 13 millones de dólares; los cheques para el esfuerzo antirevocatoria de más de 100.000 dólares han sumado por sí solos más de 50 millones de dólares. Los sindicatos de empleados públicos y los progresistas han sido especialmente generosos con el gobernador.Los defensores de la revocación predicen un final más reñido de lo esperado, pero en cualquier caso, dicen, han tenido éxito. Mike Netter, quien ayudó a lanzar la petición de Heatlie, dijo que su grupo de base ha crecido hasta unos 400.000 californianos que ya están organizando medidas de votación sobre la elección de la escuela y otras causas conservadoras.“Nadie creía en nosotros, pero nos hemos metido en la boleta, tenemos a toda esta gente y no vamos a desaparecer”, dijo Netter. “No creo que nadie esperara que Gavin Newsom tuviera que gastar 68 millones de dólares para que la carrera estuviera tan reñida”.Shawn Hubler es corresponsal de California radicada en Sacramento. Antes de unirse al Times en 2020, pasó casi dos décadas cubriendo el estado para Los Angeles Times como reportera itinerante, columnista y escritora de la revista. Ha compartido tres premios Pulitzer. @ShawnHubler More

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      What If Gavin Newsom Resigned Before the Recall Election?

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      Kathy Schwartz, a retired health care analyst living in Los Angeles, had been following the news about the effort to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom with increasing concern.Ms. Schwartz, 65, initially believed that the recall was a waste of time and money. But she got frightened late last month as Larry Elder, the conservative radio host, vaulted into the top spot to replace the governor, propelled by promises to immediately remove all pandemic health mandates.Then a question occurred to her: Why couldn’t Mr. Newsom resign and allow Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, a fellow Democrat, to take over, rendering the recall moot?“Larry Elder is scary, the guy with the bear and the guy in San Diego are scary,” she said, referring to the Republican candidates John Cox and Kevin Faulconer. “So I wondered, ‘Why don’t you just resign to be safe?’”Ms. Schwartz, who recently emailed The New York Times her query, unwittingly stumbled across a kind of thought experiment that has been percolating on social media, and among some Democrats who fear even a brief period of Republican rule in the nation’s most populous state. Earlier in the year, Christine Pelosi, the daughter of Speaker Nancy Pelosi, floated the idea to Politico as what the publication called a kind of “nuclear option.”A spokeswoman for Mr. Newsom declined to comment on whether he would step down, and Ms. Kounalakis said she was not considering the possibility.“That is a highly unlikely scenario, so right now my main focus is on keeping Gavin Newsom in office, where he has been doing so much good for Californians,” she said.There has been some ambiguity about what would happen if for Ms. Kounalakis were forced to take over in the next couple of days.The California Secretary of State’s office, which runs elections, said in a statement that “we can’t at this point confirm that it would render the recall moot,” adding that “it would require more extensive research in the matter.”The relevant section of the state’s elections code says, “If a vacancy occurs in an office after a recall petition is filed against the vacating officer, the recall election shall nevertheless proceed.”But just because state law requires the recall election to go forward would not necessarily mean its results matter, said Erwin Chemerinsky, the dean of the School of Law at the University of California, Berkeley, and an expert in constitutional law.In the scenario where the governor resigns just ahead of a recall election, “there’s no one to recall,” he said. In his reading, it would take another recall petition to trigger another recall election targeting the lieutenant governor once she took over.Mr. Chemerinsky said there was even less indication in the State Constitution that the recall election’s results would hold if Mr. Newsom was no longer governor.One thing Mr. Chemerinsky is certain about, though, is that if Mr. Newsom were to be replaced by Ms. Kounalakis in the coming days, there would be a lot of litigation.“It would be a mess,” he said.Ms. Schwartz said she did not take any chances, quickly mailing in her ballot with a “no” vote on the first question, about whether the governor should be removed. On the second question — who should replace Mr. Newsom if he is recalled? — she selected Angelyne, the pink-Corvette-driving Hollywood enigma.If Mr. Elder wins, she said, she and her husband might move abroad. More

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      Covid-19 Pandemic Becomes a Key Issue in California Recall

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      Just a few months ago, when it seemed as though the worst of the coronavirus pandemic was behind us, Republican supporters of the recall felt vindicated and optimistic. The fact that so many people were out and about would only embolden the argument that Gov. Gavin Newsom had been too tough in his lockdown orders last year.Then came Delta.For a moment, Mr. Newsom’s political future looked bleak: He had only recently proclaimed the start of the “California comeback,” and counties were instead bringing back mask mandates.Amid a resurgence of cases across the country, Covid deaths spiked in Republican-led states, where restrictions and vaccine mandates were rare. But California, where Mr. Newsom was quick to mandate masks in schools and to require health workers to be vaccinated, saw less dramatic increases.Now, Mr. Newsom and his supporters have turned the recall into a kind of referendum on pandemic management tactics. In other words, the Delta wave effectively galvanized his voters.In the closing days of the campaign, Mr. Newsom and his supporters have been more than willing to frame the recall election as a choice between a governor who “follows the science” and favors tight restrictions, and one who would loosen protocols that meant to prevent transmission and deaths.“There is no more consequential decision to the health and safety of the people of the state of California than voting no on this Republican-backed recall,” Mr. Newsom said during a vaccine event in Oakland this month.His campaign previously released an advertisement portraying the election as “a matter of life and death.”The message appears to be working. Several polls suggest that Mr. Newsom will cruise to victory on Tuesday — and his handling of the pandemic has the support of a broad majority of voters.A poll released on Friday by The Los Angeles Times and the Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California, Berkeley, found that most likely voters disagreed with the idea that the governor overstepped his authority in his response to the pandemic. The same poll showed that more than 60 percent of likely voters opposed the recall.Another poll, from the Public Policy Institute of California, found that seven in 10 likely voters say the outcome of the recall election is very important to them. Mark Baldassare, the president of the institute, tied that intense interest to the focus on the pandemic.“In our most recent poll, Covid is the No. 1 issue for Californians,” Mr. Baldassare said. “In the time of crisis, they feel he’s handling it well and that makes people more risk-averse.” More