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    The Democratic Blind Spot That Wrecked 2024

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    The 2022 election went better than Democrats could have hoped. The party picked up governor’s mansions and state legislatures and expanded their Senate majority. It held down losses in the House. The promised “red wave” never crashed ashore. Perhaps it would have been better if it had.Looking back, the seeds of Democrats’ 2024 wipeout were planted in the quasi-victory of 2022. Three things happened in the aftermath. The pressure on President Biden not to run for re-election, and the possibility of a serious primary challenge if he did run, evaporated. Democrats persuaded themselves of a theory of the electorate that proved mistaken. And as a result, the Biden-Harris administration avoided the kind of hard, post-defeat pivot that both the Clinton and Obama administrations were forced to make after the midterm defeats of 1994 and 2010.In 2020, Democrats had worried over Biden’s age, but were comforted, in part, by the soft signals he sent that he would serve only one term. “Look, I view myself as a bridge, not as anything else,” he said in 2020. By mid-2022, as Biden signaled his intention to run again, the party was growing alarmed. In June of that year, The Times interviewed nearly 50 Democratic officials and found that among “nearly all the Democrats interviewed, the president’s age — 79 now, 82 by the time the winner of the 2024 election is inaugurated — is a deep concern about his political viability.”Nor was the public thrilled about the results the Biden administration was delivering. In October of 2022, amid widespread anger over inflation, the Times-Siena poll found Biden with a 38 percent job approval rating and trailing Trump in a hypothetical rematch.If Democrats had been wiped out in the midterms, the pressure on Biden to be the transitional figure he’d promised to be would have been immense. If he’d run again despite that pressure, he might have faced serious challengers. But Democrats fared far better than they had expected. The president’s saggy approval rating and the widespread anger at inflation were nowhere to be found in the election results. In their first referendum under Biden, Democrats did much better than they had under Clinton or Obama. Any pressure on Biden to step aside — and any possibility of a real primary challenge — ended.In its place, a new theory of the electorate emerged, based on the way Democrats over-performed in contested states, like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and underperformed in safe states, like New York and California. There were two coalitions: the MAGA coalition and the anti-MAGA coalition. The anti-MAGA coalition was bigger, but it needed to be activated by the threat of Donald Trump or the Dobbs abortion ruling. A slew of special election victories in 2023 seemed to confirm the theory. Democrats were winning elections they had no business winning, given Biden’s low approval rating and public anger over inflation. But the anti-MAGA coalition’s hatred of Trump had changed the electoral math.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      The Elites Had It Coming

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      Everyone has a moment when they first realized that Donald Trump might well return, and here is mine. It was back in March, during a visit to the Smithsonian’s National Portrait Gallery, when I happened to read the explanatory text beside an old painting. This note described the westward advance of the United States in the 19th century as “settler colonialism.” I read it and I knew instantly where this nation was going.My problem with this bit of academic jargon was not that it was wrong, per se, or that President Biden was somehow responsible for putting it there, but rather that it offered a glimpse of our poisoned class relations. Some curator at one of our most exalted institutions of public instruction had decided to use a currently fashionable, morally loaded academic keyword to address a visitor to the museum — say, a family from the Midwest, doing the round of national shrines — and teach them a lesson about American wickedness.Twenty years ago I published a book about politics in my home state of Kansas where white, working-class voters seemed to be drifting into the arms of right-wing movements. I attributed this, in large part, to the culture wars, which the right framed in terms of working-class agony. Look at how these powerful people insult our values!, went the plaint, whether they were talking about the theory of evolution or the war on Christmas.This was worth pointing out because working people were once the heart and soul of left-wing parties all over the world. It may seem like a distant memory, but not long ago, the left was not a movement of college professors, bankers or high-ranking officers at Uber or Amazon. Working people: That’s what parties of the left were very largely about. The same folks who just expressed such remarkable support for Donald Trump.My Kansas story was mainly about Republicans, but I also wrote about the way the Democrats were gradually turning away from working people and their concerns. Just think of all those ebullient Democratic proclamations in the ’90s about trade and tech and globalization and financial innovation. What a vision they had: All those manifestoes about futurific “wired workers” or the “learning class” … all those speeches about how Democrats had to leave the worker-centric populism of the 1930s behind them … all those brilliant triangulations and reaching out to the right. When I was young, it felt like every rising leader in the Democratic Party was making those points. That was the way to win voters in what they called “the center,” the well-educated suburbanites and computer-literate professionals whom everybody admired.Well, those tech-minded Democrats got exactly what they set out to get, and now here we are. At the Republican convention in July, JD Vance described the ruination visited on his working-class town in Ohio by NAFTA and trade with China, both of which he blamed at least in part on Mr. Biden, and also the human toll taken by the Iraq War, which he also contrived to blame on Mr. Biden. Today Mr. Vance is the vice president-elect, and what I hope you will understand, what I want you to mull over and take to heart and remember for the rest of your life, is that he got there by mimicking the language that Americans used to associate with labor, with liberals, with Democrats.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Photographing Every President Since Reagan

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      Doug Mills reflects on nearly 40 years of taking photos of presidents.Times Insider explains who we are and what we do and delivers behind-the-scenes insights into how our journalism comes together.Through his camera lens, Doug Mills has seen it all: George H.W. Bush playing horseshoes. An emotional Barack Obama. A shirtless Bill Clinton. And he’s shared what he’s seen with the world.Mr. Mills, a veteran photographer, has captured pictures of every U.S. president since Ronald Reagan. His portfolio includes images of intimate conversations, powerful podium moments and scenes now seared into the American consciousness — like the face of President George W. Bush, realizing that America was under attack while he was reading to schoolchildren.Mr. Mills began his photography career at United Press International before joining The Associated Press. Then, in 2002, he was hired at The New York Times, where his latest assignment has been trailing former President Donald J. Trump. In July, Mr. Mills captured the moment a bullet flew past Mr. Trump’s head at a rally in Butler, Pa., and then a photo of Mr. Trump, ear bloodied, raising his fist.Over the past four decades, cameras and other tools have changed the job considerably, he said. While he once used 35mm SLR film cameras (what photographers used for decades), he now travels with multiple Sony mirrorless digital cameras, which are silent and can shoot at least 20 frames per second. He used to lug around portable dark rooms; now he can transmit images to anywhere in the world directly from his camera, via Wi-Fi or an Ethernet cable, in a matter of seconds.But it’s not just the technology that has changed. Campaigns are more image-driven than ever before, he said, thanks to social media, TV ads and coverage that spans multiple platforms. Not to mention, it’s a nonstop, 24-hour news cycle. He likens covering an election year to a monthslong Super Bowl.“It consumes your life, but I love it,” Mr. Mills said. “I wouldn’t want to be doing anything else.”Mr. Mills, who on election night will be with Mr. Trump at a watch party in Palm Beach, Fla., shared how one image of each president he’s photographed throughout his career came together. — Megan DiTrolioWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Michelle Obama, Rallying Young Voters Near Atlanta, Warns of ‘Apathy’

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      Michelle Obama, the former first lady and among the Democrats’ most popular surrogates, offered a bracing tutorial in the realities of political power on Tuesday night, beseeching thousands of people near Atlanta to vote and to “stop the spiral of disillusionment and apathy.”“It’s natural to wonder if anyone hears you, if anyone sees you,” Mrs. Obama told her audience, many of them students from Atlanta’s historically Black colleges and universities, at an arena just south of downtown. “It is healthy to push your leaders to be better, even to question the whole system.”But, she added, “It’s our job to show folks that two things can be true at once: that it is possible to be outraged by the slow pace of progress and be committed to your own pursuit of that progress.”Mrs. Obama’s pleas and warnings came as Georgia entered the final days of its early voting period, a stretch in which one participation record after another has fallen. Already, more than 3 million people in the state have cast ballots, according to the secretary of state’s office.With the state among the most contested this election year — Joseph R. Biden Jr. beat Donald J. Trump in Georgia by less than 12,000 votes in 2020 — Georgia voters have faced an onslaught of pressure to pick one side or another.Mrs. Obama, addressing a rally that was formally nonpartisan and unaligned with any campaign, made a different ask: Vote.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Tyler Perry Blasts Trump in Passionate Speech at Harris’s Atlanta Rally

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      In underlining his support for Vice President Kamala Harris at a rally in Atlanta on Thursday night, the filmmaker and entertainment mogul Tyler Perry assailed former President Donald J. Trump in direct and somber terms.Mr. Perry, who built an expansive career in Atlanta with an array of popular movies and television shows depicting Black life in America, told a crowd of 23,000 gathered in a high school football stadium that he knew he could never support Mr. Trump after learning of the full-page ad he had purchased calling for the Central Park Five to be put to death and of his promotion of lies concerning former President Barack Obama’s birthplace.“I’ve watched him, from the Central Park Five to Project 2025,” Mr. Perry said of Mr. Trump, before formally endorsing Mr. Harris, “and what I realized is that in this Donald Trump America, there is no dream that looks like me.”Mr. Perry’s speech stood in sharp contrast to the lighter talking points about voting and community organizing that have often defined Democratic events this election cycle. He has donated millions to local causes in Atlanta, such as paying for students’ college tuition and purchasing homes for low-income people, and he said that Ms. Harris’s promises to lower health care costs made her “a candidate that I can stand with.”Onstage on Thursday night, Mr. Perry discussed a litany of policies around immigration, health care and housing. He also marked a contrast between his life story and that of Mr. Trump, who he said had “a father who had millions of dollars” and could not understand the struggles of lower- and working-class Black voters.“If you are like me,” said Mr. Perry, who was once homeless in Atlanta, “I worked my ass off to buy my first house, to build my business and take care of my family.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Barack Obama Rallies for Kamala Harris, to the Chords of Bruce Springsteen

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      Former President Barack Obama sought to transfer the energy of his political movement to Vice President Kamala Harris at a rally on Thursday night outside Atlanta — their first joint appearance of the campaign — as he tried to help propel her over the finish line.“Together, we have a chance to choose a new generation of leadership in this country,” Mr. Obama told a crowd of 23,000 people at a high school football stadium in Clarkston, Ga. “And start building a better and stronger and fairer and more hopeful America.”When Ms. Harris took the stage, he lifted up her arm like a prizefighter in celebration. She quickly seemed to try to adopt his mantle, leading the audience, the largest she has drawn since becoming the Democratic nominee, in a chant of “Yes, we can,” Mr. Obama’s 2008 campaign slogan.Georgia is a top battleground state, and polls show a very tight race.Erin Schaff/The New York Times“Millions of Americans were energized and inspired not only by Barack Obama’s message but by how he leads,” Ms. Harris said after he ceded the lectern to her. “Seeking to unite rather than separate us.”She proceeded to attack former President Donald J. Trump as an “unserious” yet dangerous authoritarian who would hurt Americans in their everyday lives even as he undermined the nation’s democracy.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Walz Rallies Supporters on Wisconsin’s First Day of Voting, Alongside Obama

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      Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota raced across battleground Wisconsin on Tuesday, exhorting voters to get to the polls on the state’s first day of early voting and just two weeks before Election Day.At a rally in Madison, Mr. Walz appeared alongside former President Barack Obama for the first time on the campaign trail, giving Mr. Obama a bro hug onstage. The two took turns, in successive speeches, laying into former President Donald J. Trump and stressing the urgency of the moment to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris, who leads the Democratic presidential ticket with Mr. Walz.“Our team is running like everything is on the line, because everything’s on the line,” Mr. Walz told the crowd of thousands at an event center. He urged voters to avoid complacency, suggesting that a second term for Mr. Trump would be even more chaotic than the first and that he was “far more dangerous” now.“He is not the 2016 Donald Trump — this is a brand-new version,” Mr. Walz said. “The consequences of putting him back into office are deadly serious.”In Racine on Tuesday night, he addressed comments from John Kelly, a former Trump chief of staff, who said recently that Mr. Trump had told him during his presidency that he wished he had generals like Adolf Hitler’s. “As a 24-year veteran of our military, that makes me sick as hell,” Mr. Walz said. “The guardrails are gone. Trump is descending into this madness.”In Madison, Mr. Obama was lighthearted as he began, making jokes and telling the audience that Mr. Walz was “the kind of person who should be in politics.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Early In-Person Voting Begins in Nevada, With Obama Set to Rally Democrats

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      Tony Chavez and his wife, Elizabeth, came to Cardenas Market in East Las Vegas on Saturday to pick up a few essentials — bread, three dozen eggs and ingredients for tamales.Mr. Chavez did not expect to check something else off his list. But when he saw poll workers and signs saying that he could vote, well, why not?“I already made my decision, and it’s better to be early to beat that line as well,” said Mr. Chavez, 38, with a prominent “I Voted” sticker on his all-black Las Vegas Raiders letterman jacket.“I saw the signs and was like, ‘Is that the voting?’” he added. “‘Let me just do it right now.’”Mr. Chavez, who works as a cook, was part of a steady stream of people who took advantage of that particular polling location in Las Vegas on what was the first day of in-person early voting in Nevada, which runs through Nov. 1.He declined to say whom he was supporting for president, but he said that rights for migrants and for women were important to him and that this choice “would affect my kids’ future.”Another voter, James Still, also marveled at the convenience. His wife, Jennifer, wore a shirt supporting Ms. Harris, and Mr. Still said they had both voted for her because “politicians shouldn’t tell women what to do with their bodies.” For them, as for Mr. Chavez, voting was an added benefit of coming to the store.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Harris Campaign to Fly Ads Over N.F.L. Games in Swing States

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      As the Harris campaign continues to court male voters, it is dialing up a deep shot, targeting a venue where it thinks it will reach quite a few of them: professional football.The campaign is spending six figures on flyover advertisements knocking former President Donald J. Trump and promoting Vice President Kamala Harris at four N.F.L. games that are taking place on Sunday in swing states, with teams in those matchups collectively accounting for six of the seven main presidential battlegrounds.The four games are in Wisconsin, where the Green Bay Packers will host the Arizona Cardinals; Nevada, where the Las Vegas Raiders will host the Pittsburgh Steelers; North Carolina, where the Carolina Panthers will host the Atlanta Falcons; and Pennsylvania, where the Philadelphia Eagles will host the Cleveland Browns. (Michigan is the only swing state left out, with its Detroit Lions playing in Dallas on Sunday.)In Las Vegas, fans will see skytyping planes fly over the stadium to draw a simple message in white: “Vote Kamala.” In the other venues, a plane with a banner will deliver a slightly longer plea: “Sack Trump’s Project 2025! Vote Kamala!” In Philadelphia, that message will include a nod to the home team: “Go Birds!”The campaign is part of an effort to attract hard-to-reach voters, especially men, said Abhi Rahman, a spokesman for the Democratic National Committee.“Our goal is to meet people where they are, and there is only a sliver of the electorate that is still undecided,” Mr. Rahman said. “What we know about these undecided people — majority male — is they don’t like to read political publications. They aren’t in the 24-7 world of policy and politics, so what we are trying to do is reach them in a different way.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More