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      Elecciones en EE. UU.: los temas clave en las votaciones del martes

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      El martes se celebran comicios importantes en todo el país, entre ellos unas votaciones en Virginia que podrían ser cruciales para el acceso al aborto en el estado.El martes, los votantes en Ohio, Kentucky, Virginia, Misisipi y otros puntos de Estados Unidos irán a las urnas para unas elecciones locales, las cuales no deben confundirse con las principales votaciones del país, que se celebrarán en 2024. Estas votaciones, no obstante, ofrecerán algunas pistas sobre la potencia del aborto como tema mobilizador frente al lastre de los bajos niveles de aprobación del presidente Joe Biden en un momento en que los políticos se preparan para los comicios presidenciales del próximo año.Los resultados podrían determinar si es que los demócratas se afianzan en su enfoque hacia temas clave como el aborto, un asunto positivo para el partido en un nuevo sondeo New York Times/Siena que mostró que Donald Trump va por delante de Biden en cinco estados indecisos (o pendulares) a un año de las presidenciales.Aquí algunos temas para tener en cuenta:Acceso al aborto versus la impopularidad de Biden en Virginia y KentuckyEl martes se deciden en las urnas los 140 curules de la Asamblea General de Virginia. Glenn Youngkin, el gobernador republicano y con relativa popularidad en ese estado de tendencia demócrata, espera quedarse con el senado del estado y asegurar el control total republicano de Richmond. De lograrlo, Youngkin vería un impulso para sus ambiciones a nivel nacional.Pero la campaña de los demócratas se está enfocando en el derecho al aborto, advirtiendo que si los republicanos asumen el control pondrían fin al acceso al aborto en el último estado del sureste en donde aún queda.Youngkin está poniendo a prueba una concesión que los republicanos a nivel nacional esperan logre convencer a los votantes luego de que su partido perdió mucho apoyo desde que la Corte Suprema rescindió el derecho constitucional al aborto. Dicho compromiso consiste en prohibir el acceso al aborto luego de 15 semanas de gestación, con excepciones en caso de violación, incesto y riesgo a la vida de la madre. Los demócratas dicen que se trata de una artimaña, pero deben sobreponerse al lastre de la impopularidad de Biden.En Kentucky se desarrolla una dinámica similar. En ese estado los demócratas se han apoyado fuertemente en el tema del aborto, en especial para perjudicar al retador republicano que busca la gobernación, Daniel Cameron. Cameron es el actual fiscal general del estado y ha tenido que defender la prohibición total de Kentucky al aborto. El gobernador titular, el demócrata Andy Beshear, sigue siendo popular, tiene antecedentes familiares en política (su padre, Steve Beshear también fue gobernador) y una reputación de moderado que le ha blindado contra los ataques que lo acusan de ser laxo en materia de delincuencia y apoyar los derechos “radicales” de las personas transgénero.Beshear ha liderado consistentemente en los sondeos, pero su afiliación política es un riesgo en Kentucky, un estado en el que el expresidente Donald Trump ganó por unos 26 puntos porcentuales en 2020. Los últimos sondeos del ciclo apuntaban a un empate técnico.¿Los votantes de Ohio apoyarán el derecho al aborto?Desde el ascenso de Trump, Ohio ha sido un estado republicano de manera predecible, pero el martes se realizará un referéndum para establecer el derecho al aborto bajo la constitución estatal que podría ser la prueba más pura de la postura de los republicanos en el asunto. O no.Cuando se ha consultado a los votantes directamente sobre el asunto del aborto en la papeleta, los grupos a favor del derecho al aborto han tenido una racha ganadora desde que la Corte Suprema revocó el fallo Roe contra Wade y retiró las protecciones constitucionales al procedimiento. Incluso en estados profundamente republicanos como Kansas, los votantes apoyaron de forma abrumadora el derecho al aborto. Pero quienes se oponen al aborto lograron victorias impotantes previo al referéndum del martes. En esta contienda, los votantes tendrán que votar “sí” a un cambio constitucional. Históricamente los electores de Ohio han tendido a rechazar las enmiendas que se deciden en en las urnas.Si bien la enmienda establecería el “derecho a tomar y llevar a cabo sus propias decisiones reproductivas”, también permite explícitamente que el estado prohíba el aborto después de la viablidad, o cerca de las 23 semanas, cuando el feto puede sobrevivir fuera del útero, a menos que el médico de la gestante determine que el procedimiento es “necesario para proteger la vida o la salud de la paciente embarazada”. Pero en la papeleta, los votantes verán un resumen del secretario del estado, Frank LaRose, un republicano que se opone al aborto, que dice que la enmienda “permitiría siempre que un niño nonato sea abortado en cualquier momento del embarazo, sin importar la viabilidad”.Ambos bandos han acusado al otro de desinformar y de llevar a cabo tácticas sucias.En Misisipi: una prueba a la ampliación de Medicaid, y un escándaloLa prohibición al aborto en Misisipi ocasionó la caída del fallo Roe versus Wade cuando la Corte Suprema se puso del lado de Thomas E. Dobbs, funcionario de salud del estado, en el caso Dobbs versus Jackson.Este estado del sur profundo del país ahora enfrenta una batalla campal por la gobernación, pero los candidatos no se han centrado en el aborto, ya que tanto el gobernador actual, el republicano Tate Reeves, como su rival demócrata, Brandon Presley, se oponen al procedimiento.En lugar de ello, el sorprendente desafío de Presley ha sido avivado de forma potente por su impulso para ampliar Medicaid según lo establecido por la Ley de Cuidado de Salud a Bajo Precio (Affordable Care Act) y un escándalo de corrupción en el que se malgastaron 94 millones de dólares federales destinados a las comunidades pobres de Misisipi en proyectos como unas instalaciones de voleibol colegial propuestas por Brett Favre, el mariscal de campo superestrella ya retirado.Reeves nunca estuvo directamente involucrado en el escándalo, pero sí despidió a un abogado investigador justo después de que el abogado emitió un citatorio que podría haber brindado detalles sobre la participación de habitantes destacados de Misisipi.“Si crees que Tate Reeves atacará la corrupción, tengo una propiedad de playa en Nettleton para venderte”, dijo Presley este mes en un debate, haciendo alusión al noreste del estado.Presley es integrante de la Comisión de la Función Pública de Misisipi y tiene una clase única de reconocimiento de marca: es primo segundo de Elvis Presley.Pero en Misisipi, Reeves cuenta con tres ventajas que podrían ser insuperables: la titularidad como gobernador, la “R” de su afiliación partidista en la papeleta y el apoyo de Trump, que en las elecciones de 2020 ganó en el estado por casi 17 puntos porcentuales.Más iniciativas en la papeleta: riqueza, retiro y marihuana recreativaEl martes los votantes tomarán bastantes decisiones de manera directa en las urnas sin pasar por las autoridades electas. Además del aborto, la iniciativa que más atención atrae estará en Ohio, donde se decidirá si el cannabis debe legalizarse para consumo recreativo. Si los votantes están de acuerdo, Ohio sería el 24avo estado en legalizar la marihuana. Eso podría presionar al Congreso para que avance con la legalización que busca liberalizar las restricciones a las operaciones bancarias interestatales para las empresas que se dedican legalmente al cannabis.Los texanos van a decidir la suerte de 14 enmiendas constitucionales, entre ellas una que prohibiría al estado imponer un tributo “a la riqueza” o cobrar impuestos sobre el valor de mercado de los activos que se poseen pero no se venden. Los activistas liberales y algunos senadores demócratas destacados, como Elizabeth Warren de Massachusetts, han apoyado ese tipo de impuestos como la única forma de acceder al patrimonio de los multimillonarios, que pagan impuestos sobre la renta mínimos pero que llevan lujosos estilos de vida gracias a una riqueza vasta y sin carga impositiva.Los texanos también van a decidir si aumentan la edad de jubilación obligatoria para los jueces estatales de 75 a 79 años. More

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      Election Day 2023: What to Watch in Ohio, Virginia, Kentucky and More

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      Voters in Ohio, Kentucky, Virginia, Mississippi and elsewhere head to the polls on Tuesday for off-year elections that will offer clues to the continued potency of abortion against the drag of President Biden’s low approval ratings as politicians prepare for the coming presidential election year.The results may determine whether Democrats find some reassurances on their approach to key issues like abortion, which was a bright spot for the party in a new New York Times/Siena poll that showed Donald J. Trump leading Mr. Biden in five critical swing states one year out.Here is what to watch:Abortion access vs. Biden’s unpopularity in Virginia and Kentucky.All 140 seats in Virginia’s General Assembly are on the ballot Tuesday, with the Democratic-leaning state’s relatively popular Republican governor, Glenn Youngkin, hoping to capture the State Senate and secure total Republican control of Richmond. That feat would propel Mr. Youngkin’s national ambitions.But Democrats are running on abortion rights, warning that G.O.P. control would end abortion access in the last state in the Southeast.Mr. Youngkin is testing a compromise that national Republicans hope will be a winning message after so many party losses since the Supreme Court overturned the constitutional right to abortion: a ban on abortion access after 15 weeks of pregnancy, with exemptions for rape, incest and the life of a mother. Democrats say that is a ruse, but they must overcome the weight of Mr. Biden’s unpopularity.A similar dynamic is playing out in Kentucky, where Democrats have leaned heavily on the abortion issue, especially to tarnish the Republican challenger for governor, Daniel Cameron, who, as the current state attorney general, has had to defend Kentucky’s total abortion ban. The incumbent Democratic governor, Andy Beshear, remains popular, with a family name (his father, Steve Beshear, was also a governor) and a moderate reputation that have insulated him against attacks that he is soft on crime and supports “radical” transgender rights.Mr. Beshear has led consistently in the polls, but in a state that former President Donald J. Trump won by about 26 percentage points in 2020, the “D” by Mr. Beshear’s name is a liability. The final polls of the cycle pointed to a dead heat.Will voters in Ohio back abortion rights?Ohio has been a reliably Republican state since the rise of Mr. Trump, but a referendum to establish a right to abortion under the state constitution could be the purest test on Tuesday of where even Republicans stand on the issue. Or not.Abortion rights groups have been on a winning streak with ballot measures that put the question of abortion straight to voters since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, doing away with constitutional protections for abortion rights. Even in deeply Republican states like Kansas, voters have overwhelmingly supported abortion access. But abortion opponents scored some important victories before the referendum on Tuesday. In this contest, voters will have to affirmatively vote “yes” on a constitutional change; Ohioans have historically tended to reject ballot amendments.While the amendment would establish “a right to make and carry out one’s own reproductive decisions,” it also explicitly allows the state to ban abortion after viability, or around 23 weeks, when the fetus can survive outside the uterus, unless the pregnant woman’s doctor finds the procedure “is necessary to protect the pregnant patient’s life or health.” But in the ballot box, voters will see a summary from the secretary of state, Frank LaRose, a Republican who opposes abortion, which says the amendment “would always allow an unborn child to be aborted at any stage of pregnancy, regardless of viability.”Both sides of the issue have accused the other of misinformation and underhanded tactics.In Mississippi, a test of expanding Medicaid — and scandal.Mississippi’s abortion ban brought down Roe v. Wade when the Supreme Court sided with Thomas E. Dobbs, Mississippi’s health officer, in Dobbs v. Jackson.The Deep South state now faces a pitched battle for governor, but the candidates have not made abortion the central issue, since the incumbent Republican governor, Tate Reeves, and his Democratic challenger, Brandon Presley, both oppose it.Instead, Mr. Presley’s surprisingly potent challenge has been fueled by a push to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act and a public corruption scandal that saw the misspending of $94 million in federal funds intended for Mississippi’s poor on projects like a college volleyball facility pushed by the retired superstar quarterback Brett Favre.Mr. Reeves was never directly implicated in the scandal, but he did fire an investigating attorney just after the lawyer issued a subpoena that could have turned up details about the involvement of prominent Mississippians“If you think Tate Reeves will take on corruption, I’ve got some beachfront property in Nettleton to sell you,” Mr. Presley said in a debate this month, referring to his hometown in the state’s northeast.Mr. Presley, a member of the Mississippi Public Service Commission, has a unique kind of name recognition; he is a second cousin of Elvis Presley.But in Mississippi, Mr. Reeves has three advantages that could prove impenetrable: incumbency, the “R” next to his name on the ballot, and the endorsement of Mr. Trump, who won the state in 2020 by nearly 17 percentage points.Ballot initiatives, from wealth to weed.Voters will make numerous direct decisions on Tuesday, bypassing elected officials. Beyond abortion, the most watched initiative will be, again, in Ohio, where voters will decide whether cannabis should be legalized for recreational use. If voters agree, Ohio would become the 24th state to legalize marijuana. That could put pressure on Congress to move forward legislation at least to ease restrictions on interstate banking for legal cannabis businesses.Texans will decide the fate of 14 constitutional amendments, including one that would bar the state from imposing a “wealth” tax, or a tax on the market value of assets owned but not sold. Liberal activists and some prominent Democratic senators, such as Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, have pushed such taxes as the only way to tap the wealth of billionaires, whose income taxes are minimal but whose vast, untaxed wealth supports lavish lifestyles.Texans will also decide whether to raise the mandatory retirement age of state judges to 79, from 75. More

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      Abortion Is on the Ballot in Tuesday’s Elections, Giving a Preview for 2024

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      Elections in Kentucky, Ohio and Virginia will give an early preview of how abortion will shape the political landscape in 2024, and the effectiveness of both parties’ approaches.Abortion has emerged as a defining fault line of this year’s elections, with consequential contests in several states on Tuesday offering fresh tests of the issue’s political potency nearly 18 months after the Supreme Court ended a federal right to an abortion.The decision overturning Roe v. Wade scrambled American politics in 2022, transforming a longstanding social conflict into an electoral battering ram that helped drive Democrats to critical victories in the midterm races. Now, as abortion restrictions and bans in red states have become reality, the issue is again on the ballot, both explicitly and implicitly, in races across the country.In Kentucky, Democrats are testing whether abortion can provide a political advantage even in a red state, as Gov. Andy Beshear, a Democrat, has used the state’s near-total ban on abortions — which was triggered by the fall of Roe — to bludgeon his Republican opponent as an extremist. In Ohio, a socially conservative state, a ballot question that would enshrine abortion rights in the State Constitution will measure the extent of the country’s political pivot toward abortion rights.And in Virginia, the only Southern state without an abortion ban, Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, is trying to flip the script in the state’s legislative elections, casting Democrats as “extreme” and saying his party supports a “common-sense position” — a 15-week ban.The contests give an early preview of how abortion will shape the political landscape in next year’s presidential and congressional elections — and the effectiveness of both parties’ approaches.Strategists across the political spectrum agree that abortion remains highly energizing for the Democratic coalition, particularly in states where Republicans could pass further restrictions. In Pennsylvania, where the parties are battling over a State Supreme Court seat, even a gun control advocacy group began ads backing the Democratic candidate by raising alarms about the future of abortion rights — a tacit nod to the issue’s resonance.“It’s still a very, very powerful issue to folks, both in terms of motivating Democrats to vote and as a very fruitful persuasion issue for swing voters,” said Angela Kuefler, a longtime Democratic pollster working on the proposed Ohio amendment.What remains less clear is how far into conservative areas Democrats’ arguments will be effective and whether Republicans can deflect some of the attacks.That’s what Republicans are trying to do in Virginia, where G.O.P. candidates like State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant, an OB-GYN running in one of the state’s most hotly contested races for a newly redrawn seat, have aired numerous ads on the issue.In one ad, she says, “I don’t support an abortion ban,” even though she supports a 15-week ban on the procedure with exceptions for rape, incest, the woman’s health and cases of several fetal anomalies. She argues that a 15-week restriction is not a ban but rather “legislation that reflects compassionate common sense.”“Every Republican in a swing district knows the Democrat playbook that’s going to be run against them,” said Liesl Hickey, a Republican strategist and ad maker working on the race. “The abortion issue can either define you, or you can define it in your campaign.”In Ohio, a red state with a history of opposition to abortion rights, Democrats are pushing a referendum that would enshrine abortion rights in the State Constitution.Julie Carr Smyth/Associated PressSince Roe was overturned, Democrats have prevailed in six out of six ballot measures that put the question of abortion straight to voters. This year, national groups backing both sides have poured tens of millions of dollars into the Ohio contest, transforming an off-year ballot measure into one of the most important races this fall.A victory in Ohio would provide further fuel for abortion rights efforts next year. That will be especially true in pivotal battleground states where campaigns are already underway, including Arizona, Florida and Missouri, said Amy Natoce, a spokeswoman for Protect Women Ohio, a group founded by national anti-abortion groups to oppose the amendment.“We know that all eyes are on Ohio right now,” she said. “States that are considering similar constitutional amendments are looking to us.”In Kentucky, Mr. Beshear is further testing the limits of where abortion can mobilize a Democratic coalition. Since Roe ended, the state has become engulfed in a political battle over how abortion should be regulated. A trigger law that took effect immediately after the decision banned abortion in nearly all circumstances, except to save the life of the woman or prevent severe injury. Efforts by abortion providers to block the ban in court were denied.Last fall, voters rejected a ballot measure that would have amended the state’s Constitution to ensure that no right to an abortion was in the document.In his campaign ads, Mr. Beshear has focused on how his Republican opponent, Daniel Cameron, supports a near-total ban.The Beshear campaign has aired some of the cycle’s most searing spots, including a straight-to-camera testimonial from a woman who was raped as a child by her stepfather. She says in the ad that Mr. Cameron would force child victims to carry the babies of their rapists.“We have the most extreme law in the country, where victims of rape and incest, some as young as 9 years old, have no options,” Mr. Beshear said this past week in Richmond, Ky. “The people of Kentucky have enough empathy to believe that those little girls ought to have options.”After the ad aired, Mr. Cameron, the state attorney general, flipped his position and said that he would support carving an exception in state law in instances of rape or incest. Even if Mr. Beshear wins re-election, he would most likely struggle to change the state’s abortion law because Republicans control the Legislature.Courtney Norris, a spokeswoman for Mr. Cameron, said in a statement, “Andy mischaracterizes and flat-out lies about Daniel’s position on a number of issues in an attempt to deflect attention away from his failures as governor and his extreme record on this issue.”Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky, a Democrat, has used the state’s near-total ban on abortions to paint his Republican opponent as an extremist.Jon Cherry for The New York TimesStill, not every Democrat running in a red state has embraced Mr. Beshear’s approach. Just as in the midterms, when abortion benefited Democrats most in states like Arizona and Michigan, where the right to the procedure was directly at risk, Democrats are leveraging the issue race by race.In Mississippi, Brandon Presley, the Democratic candidate for governor, has promoted his “pro-life” stance in television ads and has focused on issues like Medicaid expansion. And Shawn Wilson, a Democratic who lost the race for governor in Louisiana last month, said he was personally “pro-life.” Both are deeply conservative states where abortion is banned in almost all circumstances.In Virginia, where abortion remains legal through the second trimester, Republicans are the ones mitigating their approach. Mr. Youngkin has tried to be proactive in his messaging on abortion, promising to sign a 15-week ban if he and his Republican allies take over both chambers of the Legislature.Such a policy would have significant implications for the entire region, because Virginia has become a destination for patients across the South seeking the procedure. Currently, abortion remains legal in the state until nearly 27 weeks, and afterward if needed to save the life of the woman.Most doctors say there is no medical basis for an abortion cutoff at 15 weeks of pregnancy. Nor would it stop the vast majority of abortions, given that more than 93 percent happen before that stage in pregnancy, according to data collected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But 15 weeks is the point at which many polls indicate that a majority of Americans would support restrictions.That’s one of the reasons Mr. Youngkin’s political committee has spent $1.4 million on ads pushing what the spots call a “reasonable” 15-week limit and accusing Democrats of disinformation as a heartbeat can be heard in the background. “Here’s the truth: There is no ban,” the narrator says.National Republican strategists have been pushing that message as well, urging their candidates to embrace a 15-week ban and exceptions in cases of rape, incest and risks to the physical health of the woman — all relatively popular positions with the general public.Zack Roday, a top political adviser to Mr. Youngkin, said Republicans were trying to reclaim and redirect the extremist label. He said Republicans needed to proactively neutralize that attack and create a “permission structure” for voters who are wary of G.O.P. candidates’ stances on abortion but like their approach to other issues.“They understand 40 weeks, no limits is extreme,” Mr. Roday said. “We’re trying to reclaim and bat that down. Because when you do, the voters will look at you more broadly.”Democrats say there are significant complications to Mr. Youngkin’s strategy. Polls show that a plurality of voters dislike the Republican approach to abortion rights. In private meetings and research memos, even some Republican strategists have urged their candidates to move away from the “pro-life” label, saying that many Americans now equate the term with support for a total ban.Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster who worked for Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s campaign in 2020, said that voters tended to see the issue of abortion as a fight over personal autonomy, and were less interested in litigating a number of weeks or specific exceptions.“Before Dobbs, people were very willing to entertain exceptions and restrictions,” she said. “Now they are much less open to that conversation because they just think there’s a bigger fundamental point here.”She added, “The fundamental freedom to an abortion has been taken away, and we want to guarantee that right.”State Senator Scott Surovell, the campaign chairman of the Virginia Senate’s Democratic caucus, said abortion remained the No. 1 issue driving people to vote.When Mr. Surovell first heard that Mr. Youngkin’s operation was planning to spend more than $1 million on abortion ads, he said he felt like what “the Union troops thought at Gettysburg,” when the Confederate army made a famously ill-fated charge.“You’re going to try to charge us here?” he said. “They’re going to try to attack us while we’re on the high ground here?”Reid J. Epstein More

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      Issue 1: Why Ohio’s Abortion Ballot Question Is Confusing Voters

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      Ballot questions have been a winning strategy for abortion rights, even in red states. But complicated ballot language and misinformation have some abortion rights supporters worried.Volunteers canvassing in favor of a ballot initiative to establish a constitutional right to abortion stopped Alex Woodward at a market hall in Ohio to ask if they could expect her vote in November.Ms. Woodward said she favors abortion rights and affirmed her support. But as the canvassers moved on through the hall, she realized she was not sure how to actually mark her ballot. “I think it’s a yes,” she said. “Maybe it’s a no?”Anyone in Ohio could be forgiven some confusion — the result of an avalanche of messaging and counter-messaging, misinformation and complicated language around what the amendment would do, and even an entirely separate ballot measure with the same name just three months ago. All this has abortion rights supporters worried in an off-year election race that has become the country’s most watched.Across the country, abortion rights groups have been on an unexpected winning streak with ballot measures that put the question of abortion straight to voters. They have prevailed in six out of six since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last year, even in red states like Kansas.Abortion rights volunteers gathered at the Van Aken Market Hall in Shaker Heights, Ohio, to encourage people to vote “yes” on Issue 1 next week. Maddie McGarvey for The New York TimesBut the measure in Ohio is their toughest fight yet. It is the first time that voters in a red state are being asked to affirmatively vote “yes” to a constitutional amendment establishing a right to abortion, rather than “no” to preserve the status quo established by courts. Ohio voters have historically tended to reject ballot amendments.Republicans who control the levers of state power have used their positions to try to influence the vote, first by calling a special election in August to try to raise the threshold for passing ballot amendments, then when that failed, by using language favored by anti-abortion groups to describe the amendment on the ballot and in official state communications.Anti-abortion groups, which were caught flat-footed against the wave of voter anger that immediately followed the court overturning Roe, have had more time to sharpen their message. They have stoked fears about loss of parental rights and allowing children to get transition surgeries, even though the proposed amendment mentions neither.Democrats nationally are watching to see if the outrage that brought new voters to the party last year maintains enough momentum to help them win even in red states in the presidential and congressional races in 2024. And with abortion rights groups pushing similar measures on ballots in red and purple states next year, anti-abortion groups are hoping they have found a winning strategy to stop them.“Certainly, we know that all eyes are on Ohio right now,” said Amy Natoce, the spokeswoman for Protect Women Ohio, a group founded by national anti-abortion groups including Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America to oppose the amendment.Simone Davis, left, and her mother, Ruth Hartman, canvassed for Planned Parenthood on the Saturday after the start of early voting.Maddie McGarvey for The New York TimesWith early voting underway since mid-October, the state is a frenzy of television and social media ads, multiple rallies a day and doorknobs laden with campaign literature, with each side accusing the other of being too extreme for Ohio.A “yes” on Issue 1, a citizen-sponsored ballot initiative pushed largely by doctors, would amend the state’s constitution to establish a right to “carry out one’s own reproductive decisions,” including on abortion.The amendment explicitly allows the state to ban abortion after viability, or around 23 weeks, when the fetus can survive outside the uterus, unless the pregnant woman’s doctor finds the procedure “is necessary to protect the pregnant patient’s life or health.”But that language does not appear on the ballot. Instead, voters see a summary from the Secretary of State, Frank LaRose, a Republican who opposes abortion and pushed the August ballot measure to try to thwart the abortion rights amendment. That summary turns the provision on viability on its head, saying the amendment “would always allow an unborn child to be aborted at any stage of pregnancy, regardless of viability.”Other Republicans have helped spread misinformation about the amendment. The state attorney general, who opposes abortion, issued a 13-page analysis that said, among other claims, that the amendment would invalidate law requiring parental consent for minors seeking abortion. (Constitutional scholars have said these claims are untrue. And the amendment would allow some restrictions on abortion.)The ballot measure Republicans put forward in August trying to make this one harder to pass was also called Issue 1. Across the state, some lawns still have signs up from abortion rights groups urging “No on Issue 1.”Members of the anti-abortion group Students for Life handed out information and talked to students at Otterbein University in Westerville, Ohio, to encourage them to vote “no” on Issue 1.Maddie McGarvey for The New York TimesAbortion rights groups have reminded voters of the consequences of Ohio’s six-week abortion ban that was in effect for 82 days last year — and could go into effect again any day, pending a ruling from the state’s Supreme Court. They repeatedly mention the 10-year-old rape victim who traveled to Indiana for an abortion after doctors in Ohio refused to provide one because of the ban.In a television ad, a couple tells of their anguish when doctors told them at 18 weeks that a long-desired pregnancy would not survive, but that they could not get an abortion in Ohio, forcing them, too, to leave the state for care: “What happened to us could happen to anyone.”The “yes” side has also appealed to Ohioans’ innate conservatism about government overreach, going beyond traditional messages casting abortion as critical to women’s rights. John Legend, the singer-songwriter and Ohio native whose wife, Chrissy Teigen, has spoken publicly about an abortion that saved her life, urged in a video message, “Issue 1 will get politicians out of personal decisions about abortion.”The “no” side makes little mention of the six-week ban, or abortion. Yard signs and billboards instead argue that a “no” vote protects parents’ rights. Protect Women Ohio has spread messages on social media and in campaign literature claiming that because the amendment gives “individuals” rather than “adults” the right to make their own reproductive decisions, it could lead to children getting gender transition surgery without parental permission — which constitutional scholars have also said is untrue. The anti-abortion side is trying to reach beyond the conservative base, and it will have to in order to win.Maddie McGarvey for The New York TimesThe anti-abortion side is trying to reach beyond the conservative base, and it will have to in order to win. In polls in July and October, 58 percent of Ohio residents said they would vote in favor of the amendment to secure abortion rights, and that included a majority of independents.Kristi Hamrick, the vice president of media and policy for Students for Life, which opposes abortion and has been “dorm knocking” on college campuses in Ohio, said the anti-abortion side had relied too much on “vague talking points” to try to win earlier ballot measures. “It wasn’t direct in what was at stake and how people would be hurt,” she said. “What is at stake is whether or not there can be limits on abortion, whether we can have unfettered abortion.”A box containing literature from the group Students for Life. Maddie McGarvey for The New York TimesIn Ohio, the anti-abortion side has leaned into arguments that the amendment would encourage “abortion up until the moment of birth.” An ad aired during the Ohio State-Notre Dame football game featured Donald Trump warning, “In the ninth month, you can take the baby and rip the baby out of the womb of the mother.”Data shows late-term abortions are rare and usually performed in cases where doctors say the fetus will not survive. In Ohio, there were roughly 100 abortions after 21 weeks of pregnancy in 2020.National groups have poured in money, making this an unusually expensive off-year race. Ohioans United for Reproductive Rights, the coalition of abortion rights groups supporting the amendment, has spent $26 million since Labor Day, nearly three times as much as Protect Women Ohio, and most of that money has come from outside the state.At the market hall, the group of pediatricians leading the canvass for the “yes” side landed mostly on people who had heard about the amendment and supported it.Marsha Chenin, left, and Dr. Lauren Beene, executive director for Ohio Physicians for Reproductive Rights, talking with people about Issue 1.Maddie McGarvey for The New York TimesOne voter, Ashley Gowens, introduced herself to one of the doctors as “Stephanie’s mom,” thanking him for “standing up for my daughter’s rights.” Ms. Gowens worried that abortion rights supporters would be misled by the language on the ballot, or not realize they had to vote again — and differently — after the August election called by Republicans. “I know that it was done purposefully,” she said. “The only way they could knock this down was to confuse people.”David Pepper, a former state Democratic Party chair, said he too feared the August election had sapped some energy, and that the anti-abortion messages against extremism will appeal to Ohioans’ reluctance to change their Constitution.“You kind of have to run the table on your arguments, and they all have to be pretty persuasive for people to vote yes,” he said. “All you have to do to convince someone to vote “no” is give them one reason.” More

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      Election Day Guide: Governor Races, Abortion Access and More

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      Two governorships are at stake in the South, while Ohio voters will decide whether to enshrine the right to an abortion in the state constitution.Election Day is nearly here, and while off-year political races receive a fraction of the attention compared with presidential elections, some of Tuesday’s contests will be intensely watched.At stake are two southern governorships, control of the Virginia General Assembly and abortion access in Ohio. National Democrats and Republicans, seeking to build momentum moving toward next November, will be eyeing those results for signals about 2024.Here are the major contests voters will decide on Tuesday and a key ballot question:Governor of KentuckyGov. Andy Beshear, left, a Democrat, is facing Daniel Cameron, Kentucky’s Republican attorney general, in his campaign for re-election as governor.Pool photo by Kentucky Educational TelevisionGov. Andy Beshear, a Democrat, is seeking to again defy convention in deep-red Kentucky, a state carried handily by Donald J. Trump in 2020.He is facing Daniel Cameron, Kentucky’s attorney general, who was propelled to victory by an early endorsement from Mr. Trump in a competitive Republican primary in May.In 2019, Mr. Cameron became the first Black person to be elected as Kentucky’s attorney general, an office previously held by Mr. Beshear. He drew attention in 2020 when he announced that a grand jury did not indict two Louisville officers who shot Breonna Taylor.In the 2019 governor’s race, Mr. Beshear ousted Matt Bevin, a Trump-backed Republican, by fewer than 6,000 votes. This year, he enters the race with a strong job approval rating. He is seeking to replicate a political feat of his father, Steve Beshear, who was also Kentucky governor and was elected to two terms.Governor of Mississippi Brandon Presley, a public service commissioner who is related to Elvis Presley, wants to be the state’s first Democratic governor in two decades.Emily Kask for The New York TimesGov. Tate Reeves, a Republican in his first term, has some of the lowest job approval numbers of the nation’s governors.Rogelio V. Solis/Associated PressIt has been two decades since Mississippi had a Democrat as governor. Gov. Tate Reeves, a Republican in his first term, is seeking to avoid becoming the one who ends that streak.But his job approval numbers are among the lowest of the nation’s governors, which has emboldened his Democratic challenger, Brandon Presley, a public service commissioner with a famous last name: His second cousin, once removed, was Elvis Presley.Mr. Presley has attacked Mr. Reeves over a welfare scandal exposed last year by Mississippi Today, which found that millions in federal funds were misspent. Mr. Reeves, who was the lieutenant governor during the years the scandal unfolded, has denied any wrongdoing, but the issue has been a focal point of the contest.Abortion access in OhioAs states continue to reckon with the overturning of Roe v. Wade by the Supreme Court last year, Ohio has become the latest front in the fight over access to abortion.Reproductive rights advocates succeeded in placing a proposed amendment on the November ballot that would enshrine the right to abortion access into the state constitution. Its supporters have sought to fill the void that was created by the Roe decision.Anti-abortion groups have mounted a sweeping campaign to stop the measure. One effort, a proposal to raise the threshold required for passing a constitutional amendment, was rejected by voters this summer.Virginia legislatureIn just two states won by President Biden in 2020, Republicans have a power monopoly — and in Virginia, they are aiming to secure a third. The others are Georgia and New Hampshire.Democrats narrowly control the Virginia Senate, where all 40 seats are up for grabs in the election. Republicans hold a slim majority in the House of Delegates, which is also being contested.The outcome of the election is being viewed as a potential reflection of the clout of Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican with national ambitions.Philadelphia mayorAn open-seat race for mayor in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania’s foremost Democratic bastion, is down to two former City Council members: Cherelle Parker, a Democrat, and David Oh, a Republican.The advantage for Ms. Parker appears to be an overwhelming one in the city, which has not elected a Republican as mayor since 1947.It has also been two decades since Philadelphia, the nation’s sixth most populous city, had a somewhat competitive mayoral race. More

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      Newt Gingrich Makes Endorsement in GOP Senate Primary in Ohio

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      Three Ohio Republicans are competing in the Senate primary. Mr. Gingrich plans to back Bernie Moreno, a businessman who is a relative political newcomer. The Senate race in Ohio is one of the best chances for Republicans to capture a seat from Democrats next year. But first, the Republican Party has to survive a three-way primary without damaging its increasingly strong brand in the state.Early polls suggest a tight race, but Bernie Moreno, a businessman making his second bid for the Senate, has started to compile the kind of political prizes that belie his status as a relative newcomer to electoral politics.Since opening his campaign in April, Mr. Moreno has raised nearly $3.5 million. That figure includes $2.3 million that he brought in during his first three months as a candidate, when he outraised every other nonincumbent Republican Senate candidate in the country.Mr. Moreno, known for his chain of car dealerships in the state, has pocketed endorsements from some high-profile Republicans, including former Speaker Newt Gingrich, who will announce his support on Tuesday, according to Moreno campaign officials.“As a conservative, a political outsider and a successful business leader, Bernie knows what it will take to disrupt the establishment in Washington, D.C.,” Mr. Gingrich said in a statement. In addition to Mr. Gingrich, Mr. Moreno has won support from Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida and Charlie Kirk, the combative young conservative activist who is the founder of Turning Point USA, a right-wing student group.The Republican Senate campaigns of his two rivals — Matt Dolan, a state senator, and Frank LaRose, the Ohio secretary of state — discounted the significance of Mr. Gingrich’s endorsement. Mr. Moreno’s out-of-state endorsements, they said, were aimed at giving the veneer of support from inside the state and masking his previous support for unpopular positions among Republican primary voters.“He’s an ideological shape-shifter who will say or do anything to get elected,” Chris Maloney, a spokesman for Mr. Dolan, said. “Maybe that helped him sell cars, but it destroys trust with voters and it would make him a lousy Republican nominee.”The three Ohio Republicans have increasingly taken aim at one another as the primary approaches. The state’s election, on March 19, means that early voting, which begins Feb. 21, opens in less than four months.“Despite running once and spending a great deal of his own money, Bernie hasn’t registered with Ohio voters and I don’t see that changing — he’s a car salesman and that comes across,” said Rick Gorka, a spokesman for the LaRose campaign.Last week, a Moreno campaign memo mocked Mr. LaRose’s fund-raising and attacked his Senate bid as immersed in “political ineptitude and negative press.”The memo criticized Mr. LaRose for his role in a ballot initiative in August that failed to make it more difficult to amend the State Constitution. The defeat of the measure, known as Issue 1, was widely seen as a victory for abortion-rights supporters who are backing a constitutional amendment in November that would guarantee abortion rights in the state.A poll this month from Emerson College showed all three Republican candidates within one or two percentage points of the incumbent, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat seeking his fourth six-year term. That’s within the poll’s margin of error of 4.5 points. The poll did not test the primary race, but it did show all three candidates in a strong position with pro-Trump voters in Ohio, said Spencer Kimball, the executive director for polling at Emerson College.“It seems like it’s a fairly wide-open race between the three candidates,” Mr. Kimball said.Reeves Oyster, a spokeswoman for the Ohio Democratic Party, said all three Republicans would be flawed candidates in a general election against Mr. Brown. Mr. LaRose and Mr. Moreno have both signaled support for a national ban on abortion, which other Republican candidates have distanced themselves from as the party struggles to defend the position. “No matter who emerges from this primary, it is clear they won’t fight for Ohioans or the issues most important to their daily lives,” Ms. Oyster said.In his first campaign last year, Mr. Moreno had an early fund-raising lead but struggled to maintain that momentum. He ultimately lent his campaign nearly $4 million while raising another $2.8 million. He ended his campaign about two months before former President Donald J. Trump endorsed Mr. Vance, the eventual winner, in the final days of the race.Born in Colombia, Mr. Moreno immigrated to the United States with his parents as a child. He has been an active donor in Republican politics, but didn’t run for office until last year — a turn that has forced him to rethink his positions on some high-profile issues.While he previously supported a pathway to citizenship for many undocumented immigrants, he said at a candidate forum this month that all recent undocumented immigrants should be deported. He was also initially resistant to Mr. Trump’s rise, referring to him as a “lunatic invading the party” in 2016. But he has since called Mr. Trump “one of the greatest presidents I’ve ever seen.” Last year, he hired Kellyanne Conway, Mr. Trump’s campaign manager in 2016, to advise his campaign. And this year, his campaign team includes Andy Surabian, another Trump adviser.Mr. Moreno’s daughter, Emily, was a Republican Party official in 2020 and recently married Representative Max Miller, a former Trump aide who won his first Ohio election last year.Mr. Moreno has put $3 million of his own money into his campaign and has about $5 million on hand, according to the most recent campaign finance reports.Mr. Dolan, who also ran for Senate in 2022 and finished third, has given his campaign $7 million this year and has about $6.7 million on hand. His latest bid has been endorsed by more than 130 current and former Ohio officeholders.Mr. LaRose, a former state senator, entered the race in July and raised $1 million in his first 10 weeks as a candidate. A poll this month commissioned by the LaRose campaign showed Mr. LaRose leading a three-way primary with 32.2 percent, compared with 22.5 percent for Mr. Dolan and 10.4 percent for Mr. Moreno, according to an internal memo. More

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      US House plunges into chaos as interim speaker plan collapses

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      The leaderless House was plunged deeper into chaos on Thursday after Republicans refused to coalesce around a speaker and a plan to empower an interim speaker collapsed.Angry and exhausted, the House Republican conference left a pair of tense closed-door sessions no closer to breaking the impasse that has immobilized the House for a 17th day. The party’s embattled nominee for speaker, congressman Jim Jordan, the Donald Trump loyalist who led the congressional effort to overturn the 2020 presidential election and now chairs the House judiciary committee, had vowed to press ahead with his bid to ascend to the post.After losing two consecutive votes to secure the speakership, Jordan had reversed course and backed a novel, bipartisan proposal to expand the authority of the temporary speaker for the next several months as he worked to shore up support for his bid. But a group of hard-right conservatives revolted, calling the plan “asinine” and arguing that it would effectively cede control of the floor to Democrats.As support for the idea crumbled, Jordan told reporters that he would continue to press ahead with his candidacy despite entrenched opposition from a widening group of members, some of whom accused the Ohio Republican of deploying intimidation tactics.“We made the pitch to members on the resolution as a way to lower the temperature and get back to work,” Jordan told reporters on Thursday. “We decided that wasn’t where we’re gonna go. I’m still running for speaker and I plan to go the floor and get the votes and win this race.”Jordan offered no timeline and no votes were scheduled as of Thursday afternoon. Behind closed doors, tensions boiled over. Kevin McCarthy, the ousted former speaker, clashed with Florida congressman Matt Gaetz, who led the push to remove him earlier this month.“The whole country I think would scream at Matt Gaetz right now,” McCarthy said.“Temperatures are pretty high,” congressman Mike Gallagher, a Wisconsin Republican, told reporters as he left a conference meeting on Thursday. He said he was headed to the chapel to pray for some “divine guidance”.The dramatic saga to elect a new speaker began earlier this month with the unprecedented ousting of McCarthy, a move backed by eight far-right Republicans and all Democrats.In a secret ballot, the Republican conference initially nominated congressman Steve Scalise to replace McCarthy, choosing the No 2 House Republican over Jordan, a founding member of the ultra-conservative Freedom Caucus. But Scalise abruptly withdrew when Jordan’s far-right allies refused to coalesce around him.Jordan, the runner-up, then emerged as the party’s second choice to be speaker. But his candidacy ran headlong into opposition from more mainstream members wary of elevating a political flamethrower and Trump loyalist to a position that is second in line to the presidency. Wars raging in Ukraine and Israel and a government funding deadline looming had Republicans desperate to move forward.With the majority party deadlocked, a bipartisan group of lawmakers began to explore the possibility of expanding the powers of the acting speaker, the Republican congressman Patrick McHenry of North Carolina, thereby allowing the chamber to take up urgent legislation.McHenry assumed the position of speaker pro tempore under a House rule put in place after the September 11 terrorist attacks. It requires a speaker to draw up a confidential list of lawmakers who would temporarily assume the job in the event the speaker’s chair should become vacant. When McCarthy was ousted, the House learned that McHenry, a close ally of the former speaker, was at the top of that list.McHenry has waived off calls to expand his power, indicating that he views the role as limited to presiding over the election of the next speaker. But McCarthy told reporters on Thursday that he believes McHenry already has the authority to conduct legislative business.“It’s about the continuity of government,” McCarthy said. “I always believed the names I was putting on the list could carry out and keep government running until you elect a new speaker.”But several conservatives decried the effort to install a temporary speaker, preferring Jordan plow ahead with more votes. After all, they argue, it took McCarthy 15 ballots to be elected speaker in January.“I believe it is a constitutional desecration to not elect a speaker of the House,” Gaetz, the Florida Republican, told reporters.“We need to stay here until we elect a speaker.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe cast of rebels who oppose Jordan are a mix of political moderates and institutional pragmatists with deep reservations about the Ohio Republican’s approach to governance. Some hail from districts that Joe Biden won in 2020, where Jordan’s brand of far-right conservatism is unpopular. Several were wary of handing the gavel to a lawmaker the former Republican speaker John Boehner once called a “legislative terrorist”.One conservative lawmaker, Colorado congressman Ken Buck, who was among the hard-right faction that voted to oust McCarthy, said he would not support Jordan because Jordan still refused to accept Biden’s victory in the 2020 presidential election.In a frenetic effort to win over his opponents, Jordan’s allies on Capitol Hill and in conservative media waged an aggressive pressure campaign that some lawmakers said included harassing messages and threats of a primary challenge. The calculation was that Jordan’s more mainstream critics would eventually relent and fall in line behind him. But his hardball tactics backfired, those lawmakers said.“One thing I cannot stomach or support is a bully,” said congresswoman Mariannette Miller-Meeks, an Iowa Republican, who initially voted for Jordan and then opposed on a second ballot after she said in a statement that she had received “credible death threats and a barrage of threatening calls”.It was a sudden role reversal for Jordan, who is far more accustomed to being an obstructor than being obstructed. Yet on Thursday he attempted a reset, huddling once again with a group of holdouts, some of whom have vowed to block him from ever claiming the gavel.But progress eluded Jordan. After the meeting, congressman Mike Lawler, a New York Republican opposed to Jordan, called for the conference to reinstate McCarthy or empower McHenry.“We must prove to the American people that we can govern effectively and responsibly or, in 15 months, we’ll be debating who the minority leader is and preparing for Joe Biden’s second inaugural,” he said.Twenty-two Republicans and all Democrats opposed Jordan on Wednesday, up from 20 Republicans who voted against him on the first ballot. To claim the gavel in the narrowly divided House, Jordan would need support from nearly every member of his conference.Democrats, who view Jordan’s involvement in Trump’s efforts to overturn the election that resulted in the January 6 attack on the US Capitol as disqualifying, unanimously backed their leader, Hakeem Jeffries of New York. Democrats, however, have expressed a willingness to negotiate with Republicans to elect a consensus candidate for speaker or empower a placeholder speaker.“I think it’s a triumph for democracy in our country that an insurrectionist was rejected by the Republicans again as their candidate for speaker,” the former House speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Wednesday. More

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      J.D. Vance Is Not Your Usual Political Opportunist

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      J.D. Vance was trying to find his groove. I had just shown up at his office last week to interview the Ohio Republican about his first nine months in the Senate, where he has proved curiously hard to pigeonhole. As we sat down, Mr. Vance — at 39, one of the chamber’s youngest members — squirmed in his ornate leather arm chair, complaining that it was uncomfortable. Whoever used it previously, he explained, had created a “giant ass print” that made it a poor fit for him.Then the senator kicked a foot up on the low coffee table in front of him. This gave me a glorious view of his custom socks: a dark-red background covered with pictures of his 6-year-old son’s face. On the far end of the table was a Lego set of the U.S. Capitol that his wife had bought him on eBay for Father’s Day. With his crisp dark suit, casual manner and personal touches, Mr. Vance suddenly looked right at home. I suspected there was some grand metaphor in all this about the young conservative working to carve out his spot in this world of old leather and hidebound traditions.I asked what had been his most pleasant discovery about life in the Senate. “I’ve been surprised by how little people hate each other in private,” he offered, positing that much of the acrimony you see from lawmakers was “posturing” for TV. “There’s sort of an inherent falseness to the way that people present on American media,” he said.This may strike many people as rich coming from Mr. Vance, who is one of the Republican Party’s new breed of in-your-face, culture-warring, Trump-defending MAGA agitators. And indeed, Mr. Vance knows how to throw a partisan punch. Yet in these early days on the job, he has also adopted a somewhat more complicated political model, frequently championing legislation with Democrats, including progressives such as Elizabeth Warren and Tammy Baldwin.Pragmatic bipartisan MAGA troll feels like a dizzying paradoxical line to toe. And it risks feeding into the larger critique of Mr. Vance as a political opportunist. This is, after all, the guy who won attention in the 2016 election cycle as a harsh conservative critic of Mr. Trump, only to undergo a stark MAGA makeover and spend much of his 2022 Senate race sucking up to the former president. “I don’t know that I can disrespect someone more than J.D. Vance,” Mitt Romney, the Utah senator and former Republican presidential nominee, told his biographer about the party’s 2022 midterm contenders. “It’s like, really? You sell yourself so cheap?”Mr. Vance is not one to ignore such swipes. “Mitt Romney is one to talk about changing his mind publicly. He’s been on every side of 35 different issues,” he clapped back to Breitbart News.But there seems to be something going on with Mr. Vance beyond the usual shape-shifting flip-floppery. He contends that his approach is the more honest, hopeful path to getting things done for the conservative grass roots. In his telling, he’s not the cynical operator; his critics are.In some respects — especially with his defense of Mr. Trump — the freshman senator is transparently full of bull. But when it comes to how to navigate and possibly even make progress in today’s fractious G.O.P., not to mention this dysfunctional Congress, he may well be onto something.Mr. Vance and I sat down on a morning when Congress was all a dither over a possible government shutdown being driven by a spending fight among House Republicans. While sympathetic to his colleagues’ concerns, Mr. Vance saw the battle as unfocused, unproductive and bad for the party.“My sense is this shutdown fight will go very poorly for us unless we’re very clear about what we’re asking for,” he told me. With different blocs of Republicans demanding different things, “that’s just going to get confused, and the American people are going to punish us for it.”He argued that if the conservatives would hunker down and focus, they could get one major concession. “And we should be fighting for that one thing,” he said. What did he think they should prioritize? “If we could get something real on border security, then that would be a deal worth taking.”Mr. Vance described himself less an ideological revolutionary than a principled pragmatist. He did not come to Washington to blow up the system or overhaul how the Senate operates. He said his outlook was, “There are things I need to get done, and I will do whatever I need to do to do them.”If this means making common cause with the political enemy now and again, so be it. “I am a populist in a lot of my economic convictions, and so that will lead to opportunities to working with Democrats,” he reasoned.Mr. Vance’s cross aisle endeavors include teaming up with Ms. Warren to push legislation that would claw back compensation from bank executives who were richly paid even as they were “crashing their banks into a mountain,” as Mr. Vance put it. He has joined forces with Ms. Baldwin on a bill that would ensure that technologies developed with taxpayer money are manufactured in the United States. He is working with Senators Amy Klobuchar and Ron Wyden on a bill to reduce thefts of catalytic converters. And in the coming weeks, his focus will be on pushing through railway safety reform that he and Ohio’s senior senator, Sherrod Brown, introduced in the wake of the derailment disaster in East Palestine. That is the bill about which he was most optimistic. “We have 60 votes in private,” he said.Even if nothing makes it through this year, Mr. Vance is playing the long game. “Those productive personal relationships are quite valuable because they may not lead to an actual legislative package tomorrow, but they could two years from now,” he said.Squishy “relationship” talk can be dangerous in today’s G.O.P., even for members of the relatively genteel Senate. Being labeled a RINO — that is, a Republican in Name Only — generally earns one the sort of opprobrium normally reserved for child sex traffickers.But here’s where his MAGA antics may provide a bit of cover. In his brief time in Washington, the senator has proved himself an eager and a prolific culture warrior. The first bill he introduced — an important moment in any senator’s career — aimed to make English the nation’s official language. In July, after the Supreme Court ruled against affirmative action in university admissions, he fired off a letter to the eight Ivy League schools, plus a couple of private colleges in Ohio, warning them to retain any records that might be needed for a Senate investigation of their practices. That same month, he introduced a bill to ban gender-affirming care for minors. He even waded into the hysteria last winter over the health risks of gas stoves. This month, he’s out hawking a bill that would ban federal mask mandates for domestic air travel, public transit systems and schools, and bar those institutions from denying service to the maskless.Perhaps most vitally, Mr. Vance remains steadfast in his support of Mr. Trump. In June, he announced he was putting a hold on all Justice Department nominees in protest of “the unprecedented political prosecution” of Mr. Trump. And he plans to work hard as a surrogate to return the MAGA king to the White House. “I’m thinking about trying to be as active a participant as possible.”J.D. Vance during a Trump campaign rally last year.Megan Jelinger/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesHis critique of Mr. Trump’s critics can be brutal.“Trump is extraordinarily clarifying on the right and extra confusing on the left,” he said. The hatred for Trump among progressives is so strong that people cannot see past it to acknowledge the former president’s “good parts,” he contended. While among conservatives, “Trump has this incredible capacity to identify really, who the good people are on the right and who the bad people are on the right.”Elaborating on the “bad” category, he points to former Representative Liz Cheney and the neoconservative writer Bill Kristol. “They say, ‘Donald Trump is an authoritarian’ — which I think is absurd. ‘Donald Trump is anti-democratic’ — which, again, in my view is absurd. I think they’re hiding their real ideological disagreements,” he argued.Mr. Vance is entitled to his view, of course. But glibly rejecting stated concerns about Mr. Trump’s anti-democratic inclinations — and characterizing his critics’ reactions as “obsessive” — would strike many as the real absurdity.Asked specifically about Mr. Trump’s election fraud lies, which Mr. Vance has at times promoted, the senator again shifted into slippery explainer mode. “I think it’s very easy for folks in the press to latch onto the zaniest election fraud or stolen election theories and say, ‘Oh this is totally debunked,’” he said. “But they ignore that there is this very clear set of institutional biases built into the election in 2020 that — from big tech censorship to the way in which financial interests really lined up behind Joe Biden.”“People aren’t stupid. They see what’s out there,” he said. “Most Republican grass roots voters are not sympathetic to the dumbest version of the election conspiracy. They are sympathetic to the version that is actually largely true.”Except that, as evidence of what is “actually largely true,” Mr. Vance pointed to a 2021 Time article detailing a bipartisan effort not to advance a particular candidate but to safeguard the electoral system. More important, the “dumbest” version of the stolen election conspiracy is precisely what Mr. Trump and his enablers have been aggressively spreading for years. It is what drove the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, landed many rioters in prison, led to Fox News paying a $787.5 million defamation settlement and prompted grand juries to indict Mr. Trump in federal and state courts. Mr. Vance may want to believe that most Republicans are too smart to buy such lunacy, but he is too smart not to recognize the damage to American democracy being wrought by that lunacy.As for those who criticize his approach, Mr. Vance saw them as out of sync with voters. The conservative grass roots are “extremely frustrated with Washington not doing anything,” he said. “I think if you are a critic of them — if you are a critic of the way they see the world — you see people who want to blow up the system. Who are just pissed off. And they want fighters.” And not necessarily fighters who are “directed” or strategic in their efforts, he said, so much as just anyone who channels that rage.By contrast, “if you’re sympathetic to them and you like them,” he continued, you understand that “the problem is not that people don’t bitch enough or complain enough on television.” Rather, it’s that voters are fed up that “nothing changes” even when they “elect successive waves of different people. So I actually think being a bridge builder and getting things done is totally consistent with this idea that people are pissed off at the government as do-nothing.”When I asked how Mr. Vance defined his political positioning, he abruptly popped out of his chair and hurried over to his desk. He returned with a yellow sticky note on which he drew a large grid. Along the bottom of the paper he scrawled “culture” and on the left side, “commerce.” He started drawing dots as he explained: “I think the Republican Party has tended to be here” — top right quadrant, indicating a mix of strong cultural and pro-business conservatism. He added, “I think the Democratic Party has tended to be here,” pointing to the bottom left quadrant, which in his telling represents a strong liberal take on both. “And I think the majority, certainly the plurality of American voters — and maybe I’m biased because this is my actual view — is somewhere around here,” he said, placing them on the grid to suggest that people are “more conservative on cultural issues but they are not instinctively pro-business.”Michelle CottleMr. Vance reminded me that he has always been critical of his party’s pro-business bias. And it is primarily in this space that he is playing nice with Democrats.Bridge builder. Deal Maker. MAGA maniac. Trump apologist. Call Mr. Vance whatever you want. And if you find it all confused or confusing, don’t fret. That may be part of the point. Mr. Trump’s Republican Party is something of a chaotic mess. Until it figures out where it is headed, a shape-shifting MAGA brawler who quietly works across the aisle on particular issues may be the best this party has to offer.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More