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      They Used Robocalls to Suppress Black Votes. Now They Have to Register Voters.

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      An Ohio judge ordered Jacob Wohl and Jack Burkman, who concocted a 2020 robocall scheme to discourage mail-in voting, to spend hundreds of hours registering new voters.Two conservative operatives responsible for placing tens of thousands of calls in Midwestern states that made false claims about the legitimacy of mail-in ballots were sentenced by an Ohio judge to spend hundreds of hours registering new voters.The operatives, Jack Burkman, 56, of Arlington, Va., and Jacob Wohl, 24, of Irvine, Calif., orchestrated a robocall scheme that targeted Black neighborhoods in Ohio in 2020, prosecutors said.More than 8,000 of the roughly 67,000 phone calls the pair made across the Midwest, using a voice broadcasting service, were sent to phone numbers in Cleveland and East Cleveland, where many Black voters reside, prosecutors said. The calls were placed during the pandemic, ahead of the 2020 election, a time of heightened interest in absentee voting because of rising concerns about health and safety.The calls falsely stated that voting by mail meant the personal information of people who cast those ballots would be added to a public database and that they would be tracked by the authorities.“Don’t be finessed into giving your private information to the man,” the recorded message said, according to a court filing in Michigan, which said Mr. Burkman and Mr. Wohl specifically targeted “Black neighborhoods” in the Midwest, including Cleveland. “Stay safe and beware of vote by mail.”The Spread of Misinformation and FalsehoodsCovid Myths: Experts say the spread of coronavirus misinformation — particularly on far-right platforms like Gab — is likely to be a lasting legacy of the pandemic. And there are no easy solutions.Midterms Misinformation: Social media platforms struggled to combat false narratives during the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, but it appeared most efforts to stoke doubt about the results did not spread widely.A ‘War for Talent’: Seeing misinformation as a possibly expensive liability, several companies are angling to hire former Twitter employees with the expertise to keep it in check. A New Misinformation Hub?: Misleading edits, fake news stories and deepfake images of politicians are starting to warp reality on TikTok.The prerecorded messages claimed that mail-in voting would result in a cascade of negative consequences, including pursuit by the authorities for outstanding debts and warrants, and mandatory vaccines.On Tuesday, Mr. Burkman and Mr. Wohl were sentenced in Cuyahoga County Common Pleas Court in Cleveland. At the hearing, which the defendants attended by videoconference, Judge John Sutula likened the robocall scheme to voter suppression efforts targeting Southern Black voters in the 1960s, Cleveland.com reported.“I think it’s a despicable thing that you guys have done,” Judge Sutula remarked, according to Cleveland.com.Mr. Wohl previously promoted false sexual assault allegations against Pete Buttigieg, then a Democratic presidential candidate, and Robert S. Mueller, the former special counsel.In the robocall case, Mr. Wohl and Mr. Burkman were each sentenced to completing two years of probation, working 500 hours at a voting registration center in Washington, D.C., and paying a $2,500 fine, a spokeswoman for the Cuyahoga County prosecutor’s office said. They will also be electronically monitored for 12 hours, starting at 8 p.m. each day, through the first six months of their probation period.Michael C. O’Malley, the Cuyahoga County prosecutor, called the sentence “appropriate.”“These two individuals attempted to disrupt the foundation of our democracy,” Mr. O’Malley said in a statement.The sentence arrived two years after they were indicted in Ohio for their voter intimidation scheme. They had initially faced up to 18 years in prison for multiple charges of bribery and telecommunications fraud but under a plea deal, the charges were merged into a single count each of telecommunications fraud, which they pleaded guilty to in October 2022.Mark Wieczorek, a lawyer representing Mr. Wohl, said that the sentence was “fair” and “in the spirit of justice.”“We think it’s a great sentence given the amount of charges he was originally indicted with,” Mr. Wieczorek said. “I think he is genuinely remorseful for his actions and took full responsibility for it.”Mr. Burkman’s lawyer could not be reached for comment.The pair also face similar charges in Michigan, where a case against them is still pending in the state’s Supreme Court, said John Nevin, a spokesman for the court. In 2020, they were charged with intimidating voters, conspiracy to intimidate voters, using a computer to intimidate voters and conspiracy to use a computer to intimidate voters, according to a criminal complaint. A judge in New York previously ordered them to call 85,000 people back to inform them that their initial calls about voting by mail had included false information. More

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      US court sentences Chinese spy to 20 years for stealing trade secrets

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      US court sentences Chinese spy to 20 years for stealing trade secretsXu Yanjun was accused of a lead role in a five-year Chinese state-backed scheme to steal commercial secrets from GE Aviation A US federal court has sentenced a Chinese intelligence officer to 20 years in prison after he was convicted last year of plotting to steal trade secrets from from US and French aviation and aerospace companies.Xu Yanjun was accused of a lead role in a five-year Chinese state-backed scheme to steal commercial secrets from GE Aviation, one of the world’s leading aircraft engine manufacturers, and France’s Safran Group, which was working with GE on engine development.Xu was one of 11 Chinese nationals, including two intelligence officers, named in October 2018 indictments in federal court in Cincinnati, Ohio, where GE Aviation is based.The Chinese ministry of state security intelligence officer was arrested in April 2018 in Belgium, where he had apparently been lured into a counter-intelligence operation – he had planned to secretly meet a GE employee on the trip.He was extradited to the United States, where he stood trial and was convicted in a jury trial on 5 November 2021 of attempted economic espionage, attempted trade secret theft, and two related conspiracy charges.Prosecutors had asked for a 25-year sentence to act as deterrent against similar actions, but Xu’s lawyers said in earlier court filings that such a sentence request exceeded those given to other people convicted of such crimes.“Xu targeted American aviation companies, recruited employees to travel to China, and solicited their proprietary information, all on behalf of the government of the People’s Republic of China,” the Justice Department said in a statement.“This case sends a clear message: we will hold accountable anyone attempting to steal American trade secrets,” said Ohio federal prosecutor Kenneth Parker.Last year, China’s foreign ministry labeled the charges against Xu “pure fabrication”.US officials say the Chinese government poses the biggest long-term threat to US economic and national security, and is carrying out unprecedented efforts to steal critical technology from US businesses and researchers.The FBI director, Christopher Wray, has said his agency opens a new counterintelligence case related to China about twice a day.TopicsOhioChinaEspionageUS politicsnewsReuse this content More

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      Voters hold political fate of US in their hands as they cast midterm ballots

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      Voters hold political fate of US in their hands as they cast midterm ballotsVoters across the US described a range of urgent concerns, from reproductive rights to anxieties about the economy and crime

      US midterm election results 2022: live
      Millions of Americans took to the polls on Tuesday for the 2022 midterm elections, a series of bitter contests that will determine whether Democrats or Republicans control Congress for the next two years, as well as key state and local offices. The outcome could also help determine whether 2020 election deniers gain more political power, and potentially set the stage for still more discord among an increasingly fractious electorate.Voters across the US described a range of urgent concerns, whether over the ongoing assault on reproductive rights or anxieties about the economy and crime. Many also described a heightened level of worry about possible challenges to accurate election results and the disenfranchisement of voters, including protracted litigation that could sow dangerous distrust in the US’s electoral system.Americans in battleground states on why they’re voting: ‘I fear I won’t have rights’Read moreIn Columbus, Ohio, Ashley Sica said her vote for Democrat Tim Ryan in the US Senate race was decided after the US supreme court overturned Roe v Wade.“I voted based off of my values, and maybe not necessarily what I would do, but just thinking globally of choices that other people should be able to have. I don’t think that government officials should be in charge of what people do with their own bodies,” said Sica, whose polling place was Ohio’s largest Greek Orthodox church.Sica, a nurse, said the Roe decision prompted many women to vote in the midterms who otherwise probably would not. She also described fear over Republicans’ opposition to tighter gun control laws despite a series of deadly school shootings.“My children’s daycare is just a mile from here. There was an issue with someone shooting a gun around their daycare. So that’s another thing that kind of brought me out to vote for stricter laws in regards to guns,” Sica said. “Having kids that are of school age now really brings that kind of thing into focus, thinking about their safety and the safety of others.”Jeffrey Weisman, another Columbus resident, voted for the bestselling author and Republican candidate for the US Senate JD Vance, albeit without much enthusiasm. “I vote Republican pretty much all the way and that is my main reason why,” Weisman said.Vance has a slight polling lead over Ryan in a state that has increasingly given sizable majorities to Republicans. The neck-and-neck Ohio contest somewhat reflects the strength of Ryan’s campaign for a seat that could determine whether his party holds control of the Senate.The close race also reflects voters’ doubts about Vance’s sincerity; he dramatically moved away from calling Trump a “fraud” and “moral disaster” to becoming a dogged supporter to land Trump’s endorsement in the GOP primaries.Weisman, the owner of a retail jewelry store, said it didn’t matter that Vance was backed by Trump. “I like the Republicans’ stuff when it comes more to the economy. I’m a business owner and I feel that things are not going in the right direction with the Democrats in charge,” he said. “I’m hoping that maybe the Republicans in charge will get things going a little better economy-wise.”Weisman, who twice voted for Trump in presidential races, said he’d rather the former commander-in-chief stay out of the 2024 contest. “It’s a tough one. I like his politics. His mouth scares a lot of people. So, I personally do not think he can win because of the mouth, the ‘controversialness’ of him, and so I think that would be a tough road for him,” he said.Voters in Pennsylvania – a state which is poised to have one of the closest US Senate elections – were choosing between John Fetterman, the state’s Democratic lieutenant governor, and Mehmet Oz, a Republican celebrity doctor.While Fetterman held a commanding lead in the polls for months, Oz has since closed the gap. Fetterman suffered a stroke in May, and still has difficulties with speaking and comprehending other speakers, as revealed in a debate with Oz two weeks ago. Fetterman and his team have insisted he is able to work and serve as senator; Oz’s campaign has mocked his health.“I liked Fetterman, except for the man had a stroke,” said Steve Schwartz, who just voted for Oz in Beaver county, approximately 30 miles north-west of Pittsburgh. “I don’t even know if he can drive to work yet. You don’t wanna hire him and then he’s going to be on disability for a little bit.” Schwartz, who also voted for the Republican candidates for governor and the US House, said he would have “seriously considered” Fetterman if not for his stroke.Beaver county, named after the Beaver River, which is either named after the Lenape chief King Beaver or the flat-tailed animal, voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020. The former president’s margin of victory was smaller here than in other Pennsylvania counties.Mike Moore, a 41-year-old loan closer, said he had cast his vote for Fetterman.“I like the way he is. I’ve met him a couple of times, he seems like a real genuine guy. I kind of don’t like Dr Oz, because he doesn’t live in Pennsylvania – and that’s kind of like: ‘How can he represent me?’” Moore said, referring to Oz’s decades-long residency in a mansion in New Jersey; Oz claims he moved to Pennsylvania in late 2020.For Moore, the most important issue was “bipartisanship”, which appears unlikely given the tone of this election cycle. “This country is so polarized now, it’s a shame,” Moore said. “You know, we got to work together. We got to be Americans.”In Lansing, Michigan, the congresswoman Elissa Slotkin– – who is running in the most expensive House race in the country – said she was bracing herself for attempts to undermine the state’s election results.“This is what happens when a leadership climate is set in our country, trying to undercut democracy when one side loses,” she said on a small patch of tidily cropped grass outside the Eastern high school athletic club after casting her vote.“It’s unclear what my opponent will do if he loses. The good news is, we’ve seen this movie before, in 2020. We were prepared,” Slotkin said.A judge on Monday dismissed an effort by Republicans to throw out votes in Detroit, determining that their claim lacked a “shred of evidence”.Slotkin remarked that inflation was undeniably on everybody’s mind in Michigan, but added that the ballot initiative to protect abortion in Michigan is a “countervailing wind” following the US supreme court’s decision in July to overturn Roe v Wade. “I was at the Michigan State rally last night with campus organizers, and Roe v Wade is really motivating students,” Slotkin said.In nearby Detroit, at a polling site at the Greater Grace temple in the north-west of the city, 35-year-old Xhosoli Nmumhad said she decided to cast a ballot to support a constitutional amendment that would dramatically expand voting rights in Michigan. Nmumhad, 35, has only voted twice before – once in 2008 and then again in 2012, for Barack Obama – but said of her decision: “I believe everyone should be able to vote.”Ruth Draines, 72, another voter here, said she always participated in elections. This cycle, she was especially motivated by a ballot proposal that would amend Michigan’s constitution to protect access to abortion. “I don’t like the fact that they want to take away a woman’s right, because some women get raped and they don’t want to be reminded of that,” Draines said.In Kentucky, Ona Marshall, who co-owns one the two remaining abortion clinics in this state, said her polling station in Louisville was overflowing with voters around 11 am. “Not even in a presidential year have we seen that number of people, and this is mid-morning,” Marshall said.On the ballot in Kentucky is Amendment 2, a proposal that would restrict abortion in Kentucky. It’s unclear whether the surge of voters will cast their ballots in favor or opposition of the amendment, but Marshall remains optimistic.“Whatever happens, for our country and democracy, it’s extremely important that we have a higher turnout at the polls for every election, so to see it in a midterm election is definitely hopeful,” Marshall said.This morning in Georgia, Avondale Estates voter Coleman Williams said he felt the weight of the midterm elections. Georgia voters must chose between Democrat Stacey Abrams and incumbent Republican governor, Brian Kemp, in the gubernatorial race – and pick between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican candidate Herschel Walker for US Senate.“I’ve watched the debates, and there’s just so much at stake for everyone,” Williams said. “I’m feeling nervous but hopeful because Georgia knows that we have to get out there, and we clearly have.”There were also the voters who found themselves so worried about the future of this country that they cast their votes early in case something happened. Beverly Harvey, a retiree and bingo organizer in the Villages, a sprawling age-55-and-up community in central Florida, was among them.“Most of my friends and I voted early. We wanted to make sure we got our vote in to try to save this country if we should not live long enough to vote on election day,” said Harvey, 75. “When you live in the Villages, you have to plan ahead.”Harvey’s top concerns were the border, crime and the economy. “We need to be doing for people here. I understand their need to escape their living conditions, but we have a lot of people in this country that are living in poor conditions as well,” Harvey said. As for crime, “I have four grandchildren, two in college, and I pray every day for their safety wherever they might be.”Meanwhile, Harvey and her friends are reeling from the soaring cost of living. They saved and saved for years, not to live “expensively” in their retirement, but just comfortably, Harvey said – which seems like an increasingly ephemeral goal.“We’ve lost so much of our savings toward our retirement that we’re really having to cut back on everything,” said Harvey. She said she “pretty much” voted “straight Republican”. As for the few Democrats Harvey voted for, she explained: “They agreed on the same things I do: the economy, the border, safety.”TopicsUS midterm elections 2022US politicsOhioPennsylvaniaMichigannewsReuse this content More

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      The key races to watch in the 2022 US midterms

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      ExplainerThe key races to watch in the 2022 US midterms Control of the Senate could hang on results in a handful of states while votes for governor and secretary of state could affect the conduct of future elections

      US midterm election results 2022: live
      When will we know who won US midterm races — and what to expect
      Arizona governor: Katie Hobbs (D) v Kari Lake (R)Hobbs is currently secretary of state in what used to be a Republican stronghold. Lake is a former TV news anchor who relishes sparring with the media and promoting Donald Trump’s false claim that the 2020 election was stolen. Victory for Lake – who has appeared with figures linked to QAnon on the campaign trail – would be a major boost for the former president and ominous for 2024.US midterms 2022: the key candidates who threaten democracyRead moreArizona secretary of state: Mark Finchem (R) v Adrian Fontes (D)Secretary of state elections have rarely made headlines in past midterms but this time they could be vital to the future of American democracy. The battle to become Arizona’s top election official pits Fontes, a lawyer and former marine, against Finchem, who falsely claims that voter fraud cost Trump the state in 2020 and who was at the US Capitol on January 6 2021.Arizona Senate: Mark Kelly (D) v Blake Masters (R)Kelly is a retired astronaut who became well known in the state when his wife, then-congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, was shot and critically injured at an event in Tucson in 2011. Masters, a 36-year-old venture capitalist and associate of mega-donor Peter Thiel, gained the Republican nomination with the help of Trump’s endorsement but has since toned down his language on abortion, gun control and immigration.Florida attorney general: Aramis Ayala (D) v Ashley Moody (R)Ayala is the first Black female state attorney in Florida history. Moody, the incumbent, is a former prosecutor and judge who recently joined 10 other Republican attorneys general in a legal brief that sided with Trump over the justice department regarding the FBI search of his Mar-a-Lago home. Like her predecessor Pam Bondi, Moody could be a powerful ally for Trump as the state’s top law enforcement official.Georgia governor: Stacey Abrams (D) v Brian Kemp (R)Abrams, a voting rights activist, is bidding to become the first Black female governor in American history. But she lost narrowly to Kemp in 2018 and opinion polls suggest she could suffer the same fate in 2022. Kemp now enjoys the advantages of incumbency and a strong state economy. He also has momentum after brushing aside a primary challenge from Trump-backed challenger David Perdue.Georgia Senate: Herschel Walker (R) v Raphael Warnock (D)Warnock’s victory in a January 2021 runoff was critical in giving Democrats’ control of the Senate. Now the pastor of Atlanta’s Ebenezer Baptist church – where Martin Luther King used to preach – faces Walker, a former football star with huge name recognition but scant experience (he recently suggested that China’s polluted air has replaced American air). Polls show a tight race between the men, both of whom are African American.Ohio Senate: Tim Ryan (D) v JD Vance (R)The quintessential duel for blue-collar voters. Ryan, a Democratic congressman, has run an energetic campaign, presented himself as an earthy moderate and accused Vance of leaving the state for San Francisco to make millions of dollars in Silicon Valley. Vance, author of Hillbilly Elegy, seen as a kind of Rosetta Stone for understanding the Trump phenomenon in 2016, used to be a Trump critic but has now gone full Maga.Pennsylvania governor: Doug Mastriano (R) v Josh Shapiro (D)Mastriano, a retired army colonel and far-right state senator, led protests against pandemic restrictions, supported efforts to overturn Trump’s 2020 election defeat and appearing outside the US Capitol during the January 6 riot. Critics say that, as governor, he could tip a presidential election to Trump in 2024. Shapiro, the state’s attorney general, is running on a promise to defend democracy and voting rights.Pennsylvania Senate: John Fetterman (D) v Mehmet Oz (R)One of the most colourful duels on the ballot. Fetterman, the state’s lieutenant governor, is 6ft 8in tall, recovering from a stroke that has affected his speech and hearing, and running aggressive ads that mock Oz for his lack of connections to the state. Oz, a heart surgeon and former host of the daytime TV show The Dr Oz Show, benefited from Trump’s endorsement in the primary but has since backed away from the former president’s claims of a stolen election.Wisconsin Senate: Mandela Barnes (D) v Ron Johnson (R)This is Democrats’ best chance of unseating an incumbent senator: Johnson is the only Republican running for re-election in a state that Biden won in 2020. First elected as a fiscal conservative, he has promoted bogus coronavirus treatments such as mouthwash, dismissed climate change as “bullshit” and sought to play down the January 6 insurrection. Barnes, currently lieutenant governor, is bidding to become the first Black senator in Wisconsin’s history.TopicsUS midterm elections 2022RepublicansDemocratsUS politicsArizonaFloridaGeorgiaexplainersReuse this content More

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      Tuesday briefing: What you need to know ahead of US midterms

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      Tuesday briefing: What you need to know ahead of US midtermsIn today’s newsletter: As Americans vote for senators, representatives and local officials, our Washington DC bureau chief explains why this contest is so important and how the balance of power might shift

      Sign up here for our daily newsletter, First Edition
      Good morning.Today the midterm elections are being held across America. Ballots will be cast for senators, representatives and local officials in one of the most important contests in recent years. It has become tiresome to describe every American election as uniquely significant, but there is a lot at stake with these midterms as the chasm between Democrats and Republicans grows ever wider, and the supreme court decision to no longer protect abortion rights hangs in the air.Despite a slim majority in Congress, Joe Biden and the Democrats have spent the past two years pushing through new laws on gun control, the climate crisis, child poverty and infrastructure – much more than many thought possible. But any change in the balance of power will bring that momentum to a grinding halt.And for many Democrats this is not just an election about policy, it is a fight for democracy itself. Two hundred candidates are running, some of them in key seats, who believe that the last election was stolen from Donald Trump. Hearings on the January 6 insurrection have been shocking – and only two weeks ago the husband of the US House speaker Nancy Pelosi was attacked in their house. If Republicans were to enjoy a resounding success, it is far from clear they would accept any future Democratic victory in a presidential election. I spoke to David Smith, the Guardian’s Washington DC bureau chief, about why these midterms matter so much and what the results could mean for America.Five big stories
      Climate | Low-income countries will need approximately $2tn (£1.75tn) in climate funding by 2030 to help cut their emissions and cope with the effects of the climate crisis.
      Russia | Putin ally and influential Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin admitted to interfering in the US elections and has said that interfering will continue in the coming midterms.
      Politics | A senior civil servant said that Gavin Williamson subjected them to a campaign of bullying when he was defence secretary, allegedly telling them to “slit your throat” and “jump out of the window” on two separate occasions.
      Weather | The Met Office predicts severe flooding across England in February despite the country remaining in drought. The floods will be a result of La Niña, a weather phenomenon influenced by cooler temperatures in the Pacific.
      Courts | Hollie Dance – the mother of Archie Battersbee, a 12-year-old boy who sustained a catastrophic brain injury in April and died in August – wants a coroner to examine the role of exposure to TikTok videos may have played in his death. Dance believes her son was hurt by taking part in an online challenge known as the “blackout challenge”.
      In depth: ‘History suggests a good night for Republicans’Midterm elections are usually high-stakes affairs, often viewed as a referendum on the sitting president. But this year’s are particularly consequential. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs, about one-third of the Senate, and 36 state governorships, among other local positions that have a say on how votes will be counted at future elections. As things stand, the Democrats have control in Washington – from the presidency to Congress to the Senate (the Senate is currently divided 50-50 but Vice-President Kamala Harris is the tie-breaking vote). But it’s famously hard for a sitting president to maintain an advantage, even more so during a cost of living crisis.It’s conventional wisdom that Republicans will probably win the House at least, says David: “History suggests Republicans will have a good night because, on the vast majority of occasions, the party that holds the White House loses seats. And polling in recent days seems to underline that.” A win in the house would give Republicans the power to cut spending for aid to Ukraine and welfare spending. Republicans have also said they plan to disband the January 6 committee and start a slew of investigations into their Democratic opponents. There have even been calls to impeach Joe Biden, although senior Republicans have been downplaying the likelihood of that happening. A fully Republican Congress could also push for a national abortion ban – although any changes to such legislation would be vetoed by the president.If the GOP wins the senate as well, they will be able to obstruct Biden’s political agenda, as well as blocking many of his cabinet secretaries and judicial appointments.The key racesThere are a number of contests that everyone is keeping a very close eye on. Perhaps the biggest is Georgia: “The rule used to be whichever way Florida goes, so goes the nation,” says David, but “Georgia has, in many ways, replaced Florida as the pivotal state in the nation.”Georgia’s senate race is extremely important. Raphael Warnock’s win in 2021 was key to the Democrats securing control of the senate. Now Warnock faces off against Herschel Walker, a former football player who “has no discernible political experience or qualifications”, David says. Walker has been embroiled in controversy for a year as stories of his affairs, extramarital children and allegations of domestic violence came to light. Most recently, a former girlfriend asserted that he paid for for her to have an abortion, despite Walker running on a hardline anti-abortion platform.And Georgia is also where Democratic favourite (and Star Trek’s president of a United Earth), Stacey Abrams, will again try to wrestle the governership from Brian Kemp. A victory for Abrams would ensure voting and abortion rights are bolstered in the state.Other races to watch out for are Ohio, where author of Hillbilly Elegy, Trump critic turned sycophant JD Vance is running: “If Democrats win in a state that has really been trending Republican in recent years, there’ll be a lot of blame on Vance and perhaps Donald Trump for backing him,” David says.Pennsylvania, home of Joe Biden, is another crucial state with TV personality Dr Mehmet Oz running against the 6’8” tattooed lieutenant governor, John Fetterman, in the senate race. Oz secured a Trump endorsement, as did Doug Mastriano, who is running for governor of the same state. Mastriano was part of the effort to overturn the 2020 elections and appeared outside the US Capitol during January 6 riots. He could be a key part of a Trump presidential run in 2024.A divided nation“It feels as if there are two separate campaigns and conversations happening, that are operating on different planets,” David says. “In the past, at least, there was a shared set of issues, and both parties would be looking to be the best on inflation or healthcare.”Republicans have focused on inflation, specifically petrol prices, and the cost of living crisis. They have also made characteristic campaign points about crime and other culture war topics such as immigration. Conversely, Democrats have been focused on reproductive rights following the supreme court decision to overturn Roe v Wade, as well as the threats to democracy, voting rights and the climate crisis. “A lot of opinion polls are suggesting that Republicans’ issues are likely to win the day, because so often, people vote according to their pocketbook and the economy,” says David.What it means for the rest of Joe Biden’s first termJoe Biden’s presidential approval rating hovers around 40%. A poll conducted by Reuters and Ipsos found that 69% of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track, while just 18% said it was on the right track. While the Democrats have managed to recover from a summer slump in the polls, a big Republican victory could further entrench his political weakness, freeze up his administration for its final two years and lead to calls for Biden to step aside for another Democrat in the presidential race in 2024.The T wordDonald Trump has still had time to have a weirdly active role in these midterm elections, having endorsed more than 200 candidates on all levels of the political system. His senate endorsements in particular will be a litmus test for the Republican party. “In a normal world, if all of his candidates lost and they got wiped out, there could be a sense that Donald Trump really does not have the political midas touch that many believed he had,” David says. But this is not a normal world, and it’s likely that regardless of what happens, Trump will claim the victory as his own: “If they lose, he’ll say they failed to follow his advice, maybe they did not embrace the ‘big lie’ enough. Or he could just say the vote was rigged and it’s all another scam.”However, if Trump candidates do win, he will be the first to claim it was all down to him and that he has been vindicated. It has been reported that Trump plans to launch his next presidential campaign around the week of 14 November on the back of any momentum from the midterms.When will we know for the results?Even though voters will be casting their ballots today, it might be days, perhaps even weeks, before there is a clear picture of results. Republicans might seem to have a huge early lead, but that will be because – for the second election in a row – their votes will be counted and reported first in several battleground states. It’s a deliberate change made by Republican officials in some states, making it easier to cast doubt on results when the final tally differs markedly from early announcements. This is coupled with the fact that Democrats traditionally use mail-in ballots far more than Republican voters, and those ballots can take longer to tally and tend to be reported in the days after the election.There will be some idea of how the election went tomorrow morning. In the meantime, read more of the Guardian’s midterm elections coverage here.What else we’ve been reading
      There are so many parts of Rhiannon Lucy Cosslett’s latest column that will chime for parents – but for me it was the way she captures the constant change of early parenthood that really struck home, every shift gifting “a whole new phase, while mourning that which came before”. Toby Moses, head of newsletters
      Benjamin Zand spent a year inside the incel community in the UK and abroad, uncovering a world marred by desperation, loneliness and violent misogyny. Nimo
      Elle Hunt’s lovely feature, talking to the bands who had their music coopted by politicians, is perhaps best encapsulated by this quote from Friendly Fires’ response to Boris Johnson using their song as entrance music: “If we’d have intended them to use it, we’d have named the track Blue Bunch of Corrupt Wankers.” Toby
      Georgina Sturge unpacks how “bad data” infiltrated British politics and what the implications are on policy when a government relies on erroneous or partial information. “Numbers hold enormous power,” Sturge writes, “but in the end, we must remember that we govern them – not the other way round.” Nimo
      Ham in a can is back, and Stuart Heritage’s tour through the best Spam recipes from the great and good of the culinary world offers one particularly dangerous idea: Spam french fries, anyone? Toby
      SportWorld Cup 2022 | Six out of 10 people in the UK think that the World Cup should not be held in Qatar because of its criminalisation of homosexuality. The same poll found that only 43% of people think that England and Wales should take part in the World Cup.Football | Liverpool and Manchester United face tough European challenges against Real Madrid and Barcelona in the next round of Champions and Europa Leagues.Football | Rio Ferdinand is typically thoughtful on the subjects of racism and homophobia in this revealing interview with Donald McRae.The front pagesThe Guardian leads this morning with “Poor nations ‘paying twice’ for climate breakdown”. The i has “Red alert for Earth: gravest warning yet on climate change” while the Metro covers Cop27 as well with “Sunak turns on the Sharm”, geddit? The Daily Mail asks “Just what planet are they on?” – it says incredulously that campaigners want the UK to pay $1tn in climate reparations to poorer nations. Other papers show Rishi Sunak embracing Emmanuel Macron at Cop27 but it is not their lead story. “Welfare and pensions set to rise with inflation” – that’s the Times while the Daily Telegraph has “Gas deal set to ease energy crisis” and the Daily Express goes with “Rishi: I will get ‘grip’ on migrant crisis”. The Mirror’s splash is inspiring but also a bit challenging: “Brave mum’s TV dissection to educate millions” (about cancer – the “extraordinary broadcast” will take place on Channel 4). It is still on the trail of Lord Lucan as well – a puff box says “Lucan brother: he DID escape and become a Buddhist”. The top story in the Financial Times today is “Chancellor lines up stealth raid on inheritance tax to shore up finances”.Today in FocusUS midterms: is it still the economy, stupid?The Democrats have learned hard lessons over the years about what happens when election campaigns neglect the economy, so has the party been strong enough in its messaging for today’s midterm elections? Lauren Gambino reportsCartoon of the day | Steve BellThe UpsideA bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all badDuring monsoon season in south-western Bangladesh, when there is little dry land on which to grow food, farmers keep their businesses afloat – quite literally – by growing vegetables on rafts made from invasive water hyacinths. These floating gardens help ensure food security in low-lying regions, where the climate crisis has resulted in waterlogging and flooding. Photographer Mohammad Ponir Hossain, who won a Pulitzer for his images of Rohingya refugees, has captured the practice and the people behind it.Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every SundayBored at work?And finally, the Guardian’s crosswords to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
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      TopicsRepublicansFirst EditionUS midterm elections 2022Joe BidenStacey AbramsDonald TrumpDemocratsUS politicsnewslettersReuse this content More

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      in US Politics

      Democrat Tim Ryan is running against his own party – it could help him win

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      Democrat Tim Ryan is running against his own party – it could help him winIn an increasingly red state, Ohio Senate hopeful Ryan blames Democrats as much as Republicans for failing the working class Tim Ryan stood in the middle of the electrical workers union hall, facing the signs declaring he puts “Workers First”, and prepared to call for a revolution of sorts.But this was Dayton, Ohio, where patriotism and religion are largely unquestioned even if political loyalties are fluid. So first came the national anthem and then the prayers.After that, the Democrat congressman and candidate for the US Senate laid into his targets.Ryan made a fleeting reference to his Republican opponent, JD Vance, with a derisive remark about the bestselling author of Hillbilly Elegy – a controversial account of growing up amid poverty and drug addiction – suddenly growing a beard to look more like the working-class Ohio voters he hopes will elect him.After that, the Democrat had little to say about Vance as he turned his guns on another target.Ryan does not have the enthusiastic support of his party’s leadership in Washington even though the outcome of his race could decide control of the Senate. But then Ryan is not an enthusiast for the Democratic national leadership or his party’s record over recent decades.Ohio saw more than one-quarter of its manufacturing jobs shipped off to Mexico under the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta) signed by President Bill Clinton, a Democrat, in the 1990s and later to China after it joined the World Trade Organization.At the union hall rally in Dayton, a city that has lost about a third of its population over the past 40 years as jobs disappeared, Ryan was cheered when he said Democrats were as much to blame as Republicans.US midterms 2022: the key racesRead more“You’ve seen a broken economic system where both parties have sold out to the corporate interests that shift our jobs down to the southern part of this country, then to Mexico, then to China. There is no economic freedom if there’s no jobs here in the United States,” he told the crowd.Ryan returned to the theme later in speaking about “people who’ve been on the other side of globalisation and automation and bad trade deals that, quite frankly, both parties passed that devastated communities like ours”.In 2016, Donald Trump tapped into anger about the loss of jobs and its impact on communities with a promise to stop the closure of a major General Motors car plant in Lordstown, Ohio, which employed more than 10,000 workers at its peak. He told a rally in a neighbouring city he would bring back jobs to the region: “Don’t move. Don’t sell your house.”That promise helped deliver north-eastern Ohio to Trump and flip a state that twice voted to put Barack Obama into the White House. In 2019, the Lordstown plant shut anyway, adding to the woes of a city that had already lost its hospital. It was not alone. Few places Trump promised to revive saw him deliver.That has opened the door for Ryan to say the Republicans don’t have any real interest in helping working Americans because they really represent the corporations that employ them. But many of those workers long ago decided that the Democrats aren’t serving their interests either.White voters without college degrees accounted for 42% of voters in the 2020 presidential election across the US. The proportion is even higher in Ohio where more than 80% of the population is white and only about one in five people of voting age graduated from university.In the Clinton years, Democrats took around half of that vote nationally. Now the Republicans have an advantage of nearly two to one while Democrats lead among the college educated.Ryan implicitly acknowledged that many of those who traditionally voted Democrat no longer saw the party as representing their interests, and told the rally that has led to some of its strategists wanting to write off the working-class vote.“When I hear people at the national level say things like we have to invest in races where states have an increasing rate of college graduates, that’s where we need to campaign, whoa,” he said. “We’re going to teach the Democratic party that the working-class folks, whether they’re white or black or brown men or women or gay or straight, we are the backbone of this party.”It’s a theme that appears to be resonating with some Ohio voters. While Republicans are well ahead in most of the other statewide races, Ryan is within shouting distance of Vance.“Tim Ryan has been a really strong candidate,” said Lee Hannah, a professor of political science at Wright State University, named after the Wright brothers who invented the first aeroplane in their Dayton bicycle shop.“In some ways he agrees with Trump’s criticisms of the the policies that cost jobs but Ryan would say that Trump didn’t make good on that promise and he has better ideas.”Hannah said that Ryan has also been effective at reclaiming ground from Trump that used to belong to the Democrats while Republicans portray the party as in the grip of a “woke” cultural agenda.“The Democrats have been playing defence on being just the party of identity politics, which I think is unfair but it’s been an effective caricature. Tim Ryan has tried to push against that and talk about more of these issues that he thinks will resonate with working-class voters,” he said.The Democratic congressman also has the advantage of running against Vance.‘It’s humiliating’: US voters struggle with hunger ahead of midtermsRead moreHannah said that the Republican is a relative unknown as a politician despite his national profile as a bestselling author about his hard upbringing in Middletown, Ohio.But the bigger problem may be the scepticism engendered by Vance deriding Donald Trump early in his presidency as a “fraud” and a “moral disaster” and then dramatically becoming a fervent supporter in order to win his endorsement in the Senate primaries. That paid off after Trump’s backing moved Vance from down the field to victory. But it has had consequences both with ardent supporters of the former president who dislike the earlier disloyalty and swing voters put off by Trump.“Vance is really trying to thread this needle where he was this Never Trump Republican back in ‘16 and now he is very much a full-throated Trump supporter. That has led to questions about his authenticity which is probably hurting him,” said Hannah.“Vance really is in a tough spot. I still would say he’s the odds on favourite to win but what’s difficult is that he needs to embrace this Trump base to make sure he has enough support but at the same time that can be really off-putting to folks who were really energised in 2020 to come out and vote against Trump.”Some opinion polls suggest that some Ohioans may be splitting their votes to support the popular sitting Republican governor, Mike DeWine, while also voting for Ryan, or at least against Vance.For all that, Trump remains popular in Ohio, with an approval rating of about 55%, while President Biden’s is well below the national average at just 35% which does not help Ryan.The mood in the union hall was sympathetic to the Democratic candidate if not always toward his party.Ryan, whose father is a Republican, is counting on working Ohioans trusting that it is he, and not Vance, who will fight for their jobs. Michael Gross, president of the local electrical union workers branch, thought that could carry him over the line.“We’re seeing somebody from a part of the state that has particularly been abandoned by manufacturing and big corporations that have left the state and left the country. I think he’s able to transfer that message that he’s here to fight for us, for the people of this state, for working-class families,” he said.But Gross, like others in the hall, struggled to explain why so many union members voted for Trump and Republicans and how to bring them back to the broader Democrat party.“I wish I knew the answer. We tell our members we really haven’t made any gains and then the one percenters have. So it’s really, it’s frustrating,” he said.Kim McCarthy, the chair of the Greene County Democratic party which covers part of Dayton and neighbouring towns, was sceptical that her party’s national leadership will change.“They represent those same interests as Republicans. The Democrats get contributions from the same corporations as Republicans. There’s very little someone like Tim Ryan can do. I’m sure his intentions are good but it’s a broken system that does not allow for people who want to represent people and not buy into the interests of money,” said McCarthy, an accountant.“The Democratic party has huge issues. For me to run as county chair and do this is because I feel that the Democratic party’s future lies at the county level. We’re the grassroots, we are where the people are. We are not in DC. It’s ridiculous. People at the grassroots, at the ground level, we have to push it up because they’re not representing us.”TopicsUS midterm elections 2022DemocratsOhioUS politicsfeaturesReuse this content More

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      in Elections

      Democrats, Don’t Despair. There Are Bright Spots for Our Party.

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      The Democratic Party and Senator Mitch McConnell rarely see eye to eye on anything. But if Democrats hold the line in the elections on Tuesday and keep control of the Senate — and we still have a shot — it will come down to candidate quality.That’s the phrase that Mr. McConnell used this past summer alluding to his Republican Senate nominees.Going into Tuesday’s vote, Democrats face fierce headwinds like inflation and the typical pattern of losses in midterm elections for the party in power. But unlike some Republican candidates — a real-life island of misfit toys — many Democratic Senate candidates have been a source of comfort: the likable, pragmatic, low-drama Mark Kelly in Arizona and Raphael Warnock in Georgia, the heterodox populists John Fetterman (Pennsylvania) and Tim Ryan (Ohio). If the party can defy the odds and hold the Senate, there will be valuable lessons to take away.For many election analysts, the hopes of the summer —  that the Dobbs decision overturning Roe could help Democrats buck historical trends — look increasingly like a blue mirage, and Republicans seem likely to surf their way to a majority in the House.Yet the battle for the Senate is still raging, and largely on the strength of Mr. Kelly, Mr. Warnock, Mr. Ryan and Mr. Fetterman. Their races also offer insights that can help Democrats mitigate losses in the future and even undo some of the reputational damage that has rendered the party’s candidates unelectable in far too many places across the country.In a normal midterm year, Mr. Warnock and Mr. Kelly would be the low-hanging fruit of vulnerable Democrats, given that they eked out victories in 2020 and 2021 in purple states.But they bring to the table compelling biographies that resist caricature. Mr. Kelly is a former Navy combat pilot and astronaut whose parents were both cops. Mr. Warnock, the senior pastor at Atlanta’s Ebenezer Baptist Church, quotes Scripture on the campaign trail and compares the act of voting to prayer.They’ve rejected the hair-on-fire, hyperpartisan campaign ads that endangered incumbents often rely on. Mr. Kelly’s ads highlight his bipartisanship and willingness to break with the Democratic Party on issues like border security — he supports, for example, filling in gaps in the wall on the border with Mexico.Mr. Warnock, too, has focused on local issues: His campaign has highlighted his efforts to secure funding for the Port of Savannah and his bipartisan work with Tommy Tuberville of Alabama to help Georgia’s peanut farmers. These ads will probably not go viral on Twitter, but they signal that Mr. Kelly and Mr. Warnock will fight harder for the folks at home than they will for the national Democratic agenda.In Ohio and Pennsylvania, Mr. Ryan and Mr. Fetterman have showed up in every county, red or blue, in their states. Democrats can’t just depend on driving up the margins in Democratic strongholds — they also need to drive down Republicans’ margins in their strongholds.Mr. Fetterman is holding to a slim lead in polls. Most analysts doubt Mr. Ryan can prevail in what is a tougher electoral environment for a Democrat, but even if he loses, he helped his peers by keeping his race competitive, and he did it without a dollar of help from the national party. He forced national Republicans to spend about $30 million in Ohio that could otherwise have gone to Senate races in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania.Anything could happen on Tuesday. Politics, like football, is a game of inches. It’s still possible that Democrats could pick up a seat or two. It’s also plausible that Republicans could take seats in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and even New Hampshire.But when the dust settles on the election, Democrats need to do some real soul-searching about the future of our party. We look likely to lose in some places where Joe Biden won in 2020. And what’s worse, we could lose to candidates who have embraced bans on abortion and conspiracy theories about the 2020 election, views shared by a minority of the American people. This outcome tells us as much about the Democratic brand as it does the Republican Party.Fair or not, Democrats have been painted as the party of out-of-touch, coastal elites — the party that tells voters worried about crime that it’s all in their heads and that, by the way, crime was higher in the 1990s; the party that sneers at voters disillusioned with bad trade deals and globalization and that labels their “economic anxiety” a convenient excuse for racism; the party that discounts shifts of Black and Hispanic voters toward the Republican Party as either outliers or a sign of internalized white supremacy.If Democrats are smart, they’ll take away an important lesson from this election: There is no one way, no right way to be a Democrat. To win or be competitive in tough years in places as varied as Arizona, Georgia, Ohio and Pennsylvania, we need to recruit and give support to the candidates who might not check the box of every national progressive litmus test but who do connect with the voters in their state.Mr. Fetterman and Mr. Ryan offer good examples. Both have been competitive in part because they broke with progressive orthodoxy on issues like fracking (in Pennsylvania, Mr. Fetterman was called the “enemy” by an environmentalist infuriated by his enthusiastic support for fracking and the jobs it creates) and trade deals (in Ohio, Mr. Ryan has bragged about how he “voted with Trump on trade”).It also means lifting up more candidates with nontraditional résumés who defy political stereotypes and can’t be ridiculed as down-the-line partisans: veterans, nurses, law enforcement officers and entrepreneurs and executives from the private sector.In some states, the best candidates will be economic populists who play down social issues. In others, it will be economic moderates who play up their progressive social views. And in a lot of swing states, it will be candidates who just play it down the middle all around.It might also mean engaging with unfriendly media outlets. Most Democrats have turned up their noses at Fox News even though it is the highest-rated cable news channel, but Mr. Ryan has made appearances and even put on air a highlight reel of conservative hosts like Tucker Carlson praising him as a voice of moderation and reason in the Democratic Party. In the frenzied final days of the campaign, Mr. Fetterman wrote an opinion essay for FoxNews.com.This year we still might avoid losing the Senate. And Democrats can avoid catastrophe in future elections. It all comes down to two words: “candidate quality.”Lis Smith (@Lis_Smith), a Democratic communications strategist, was a senior adviser to Pete Buttigieg’s presidential campaign and is the author of the memoir “Any Given Tuesday: A Political Love Story.”The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More