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    Will Gas Prices Doom Democracy?

    Will the price of gasoline — a price that has very little to do with which party controls the government — nonetheless determine the outcome of the midterm elections, and quite possibly the fate of American democracy?I wish that were a silly question, but it isn’t. This year there has been a strong correlation between the price of gasoline and political polls.Earlier this year, when gas reached an average of $5 a gallon, everything seemed to point to a Republican blowout. By mid-September, with gas prices down almost $1.50, the election looked much more competitive. And some apparent recent deterioration in Democrats’ prospects coincided with an upward tick in prices in late September and early October. (Prices are now falling again.)Now, this correlation might be spurious. Other things have been going on, notably a partisan Supreme Court’s overthrow of Roe v. Wade. And political scientists who have studied the issue find that normally the effect of gas prices on political outcomes is fairly weak.But we are arguably in a special situation right now. Americans have been shocked by a sudden surge in inflation, which had been quiescent for decades, and the price of gasoline — displayed on huge signs every few blocks — is a potent reminder of our economic difficulties.What we know for sure is that politicians are harping on gas prices. Republicans don’t talk about the core personal consumption expenditure deflator, they declare that “gas was only $2 a gallon when Trump was in office!” The Biden administration talked a lot about the long slide in prices and is trying to get out the word that this slide has resumed.So this seems like a good time to make three important points about gasoline prices.First, the most important determinant of prices at the pump is the world price of crude oil, over which the United States has little influence. And I do mean “world price”: Prices in Europe and the United States normally move almost perfectly in tandem.Crude prices and hence gas prices were unusually low during Donald Trump’s last year in office, not because of anything he did, but because Covid had the world economy flat on its back, greatly reducing oil demand. Crude temporarily shot up after Russia invaded Ukraine, out of fears that Russian oil exports would be greatly reduced; it fell again as it became clear that a lot of Russian oil would continue to find its way to world markets.Second, smaller fluctuations are usually driven by technical issues at the refineries that turn crude oil into gasoline and other products. The mini-surge in gas prices that began in September (and now seems to be over) was caused by shutdowns of several refineries for maintenance and a fire at one refinery in Ohio. Again, this has nothing to do with policy.What about accusations that energy companies are deliberately holding production back to raise prices and profits?We shouldn’t dismiss this possibility out of hand. Some readers may recall the California electricity crisis of 2000-2001. When some analysts, myself included, argued that the facts suggested that market manipulation was playing a large role, we faced considerable ridicule. But it turned out that markets were, in fact, being manipulated; we have the receipts.As far as I can tell, however, the refining issues that led to recent price increases were genuine. I don’t think it’s wrong to stay suspicious, and keep energy companies on notice against pulling an Enron. But it’s probably not a current problem.Finally, gas isn’t expensive compared with the fairly recent past.One way I like to look at this is to look at the ratio of the price of gasoline to the average worker’s hourly earnings. Right now this ratio is considerably lower than it was in the early 2010s. Gasoline prices did plunge in 2014 — yes, under Barack Obama, not Trump. But this reflected a surge in fracking, which actually did increase U.S. oil production enough to have a significant effect on world markets. Unfortunately the fracking boom turned out to be a bubble that eventually burned up more than $300 billion in investors’ money.So gas prices probably won’t go back to the levels of the late 2010s, not because the Biden administration is hostile to oil production, but because those low prices depended on investors’ delusions about fracking’s profitability. Taking a longer view, as I said, gas isn’t actually expensive at this point.Furthermore, experts believe that with some troubled refineries coming back online, gas prices will fall substantially over the next few weeks.So what does this tell us about the success or failure of Biden administration policy? Very little. Biden’s jawboning of refiners over their margins might be having some effect; so might his release of extra oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Overall, however, it’s hard to think of a worse metric for judging a president and his party than a price determined mainly by events abroad and technical production issues here at home, a price that isn’t even high compared with, say, a decade ago.Yet gas prices may sway a crucial election, a fact that is both ludicrous and terrifying.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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    Biden Expands Effort to Lower Gas Prices and Secure Energy Independence

    Depleting emergency oil reserves spurs criticism that the White House is trying to lower gas prices with midterm election politics in mind.The president rejected the notion that the move to release more oil was politically motivated by the upcoming midterm elections.Haiyun Jiang/The New York TimesWASHINGTON — President Biden expanded his efforts on Wednesday to blunt the pain of rising gas prices and reduce America’s exposure to global energy markets, which have become more volatile because of provocative actions by Russia and Saudi Arabia.The administration announced $2.8 billion in grants to expand domestic manufacturing of batteries for electric vehicles and the electrical grid, one day after officials said that the United States would release millions of barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and that Mr. Biden would consider additional withdrawals this winter.The moves highlight how energy security is now at the center of the Biden administration’s economic agenda, which has been derailed by soaring inflation and Russia’s war in Ukraine. Those concerns come at a perilous political moment, with midterm elections that will determine dynamics in Washington less than three weeks away.Mr. Biden’s decision to order the release of 15 million additional barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is designed to address the immediate worry of rising gas prices, which was exacerbated further by Saudi Arabia’s recent decision, in concert with Russia, to cut oil production. In total, 180 million barrels of oil have been released since Mr. Biden authorized the use of the reserve in March.The Biden administration is prepared to dip further into its emergency supplies this winter, despite concerns that depleting the reserve could put the nation’s energy security at risk.“We’re calling it a ready and release plan,” Mr. Biden said on Wednesday. “This allows us to move quickly to prevent oil price spikes and respond to international events.”Mr. Biden has described the releases as a way to blunt the impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine while domestic energy producers ramp up production. There are about 400 million barrels remaining in the stockpile, which has the capacity to hold about 700 million barrels.The Biden PresidencyWith midterm elections approaching, here’s where President Biden stands.Storyteller in Chief: President Biden has been unable to break himself of the habit of spinning embellished narratives to weave a political identity.Diplomatic Limits: OPEC’s decision to curb oil production has exposed the failure of President Biden’s fist-bump diplomacy with the crown prince of Saudi Arabia.Defending Democracy: Mr. Biden’s drive to buttress democracy at home and abroad has taken on more urgency by the persistent power of China, Russia and former President Donald J. Trump.Questions About 2024: Mr. Biden has said he plans to run for a second term, but at 79, his age has become an uncomfortable issue.In remarks at the White House, Mr. Biden rebutted the notion that his administration had placed curbs on domestic oil production. Instead, he called on companies to expand production and said even if demand for oil slows in future years, they would be able to sell it back to the federal government to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve when oil prices decline to around $70 a barrel.The president also accused oil companies of profiteering and warned them not to gouge prices as Americans are grappling with inflation.“When the cost of oil comes down, we should see the price of the gas station at the pump come down as well,” he said. “My message to the American energy companies is, you should not be using your profits to buy back stock or for dividends. Not now. Not while a war is raging.”Separately on Wednesday, the White House announced that the Energy Department is awarding $2.8 billion of grants that were created as part of the infrastructure legislation passed earlier this year..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.The money will go to 20 companies in 12 states and will be used for projects related to the production of lithium, graphite and nickel that is used in batteries that power electric vehicles. One grant recipient, Talon Nickel, said it would use the $114 million it had been awarded to help set up a processing facility for battery materials in Mercer County, North Dakota.The North Dakota facility will process ore that the company plans to mine in Minnesota, one link in the first fully domestic supply chain for battery-grade nickel that Talon is building out in partnership with Tesla.While the Biden administration has stressed the importance of building up some domestic manufacturing of electric vehicle batteries, which is now heavily reliant on China, administration officials have also acknowledged the pollution risks in permitting new mines and processing facilities in the United States.Talon’s plan to build an underground mine to extract nickel from a water-rich area of northern Minnesota drew concerns from some in the area, including Ojibwe tribes who gather wild rice nearby.Todd Malan, the company’s chief external affairs officer, said the decision to locate the processing facility at an industrial site in North Dakota, instead of near the company’s proposed mine in Minnesota, was a “direct response” to those concerns. He said the company would create a “cemented containment facility” that would neutralize and contain waste from ore processing.“We hope that this is seen as a step toward addressing their concerns while still producing the necessary materials for the U.S. electric vehicle battery supply chain,” he said.Gene Berdichevsky, the co-founder and chief executive of Sila, a maker of battery materials, said the $100 million grant the company received would allow it to expand the size of a factory in Moses Lake, Wash.Sila’s technology substitutes silicon for graphite in electric vehicle batteries, making them smaller and lighter and reducing the need for materials imported from China. Mercedes-Benz, Sila’s first announced customer, plans to deploy the technology in sport utility vehicles that will be available for sale around the middle of the decade.During a manufacturing event at the White House with recipients of the grants, Mr. Biden described the race to make batteries in the United States as part of a broader economic contest with China. He noted that 75 percent of battery manufacturing is done in China and that the country controls nearly half of the global production of the contents of batteries.“China’s battery technology is not more innovative than anyone else,” Mr. Biden said. “By undercutting U.S. manufacturers with their unfair subsidies and trade practices, China seized a significant portion of the market. Today we’re stepping up, really, to take it back.”The grant funds, which could take years to yield results, are part of the Biden administration’s longer-term strategy to transition away from cars with combustion engines and reach a goal of making half of all new vehicles sold electric by 2030.But the use of the strategic oil reserves has fueled criticism that Mr. Biden is putting the nation’s near-term energy security at risk for political purposes.“The Strategic Petroleum Reserve was built for a national energy crisis — not for a Democrat election crisis,” said Senator John Barrasso, Republican of Wyoming. “Joe Biden is draining our emergency oil supply to a 40-year low.”Mr. Barrasso, the top Republican on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, said the president’s “dismal approval rating is not a justifiable reason to continue to raid our nation’s oil reserves.”On Wednesday, Mr. Biden denied that he was releasing more oil with the midterm elections in mind.“It’s not politically motivated at all,” Mr. Biden said, explaining that he has been working for months to lower gas prices. “It’s motivated to make sure that I continue to push on what I’ve been pushing.”Jack Ewing More

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    U.S. to Release Millions More Barrels of Oil to Contain Gas Prices

    The Department of Energy will release 15 million more barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and plans additional releases this winter.WASHINGTON — The United States plans to release millions of additional barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in December and to make additional releases over the winter, White House officials said on Tuesday evening.The releases from the strategic reserve this year have been a dramatic step by the United States to contain its gasoline prices and stabilize energy prices around the world. The latest move comes three weeks ahead of the midterm elections and amid growing concern that inflation could worsen as winter approaches and the conflict in Ukraine drags on.Officials said the United States would release an additional 15 million barrels of oil from the reserve in December, exhausting the 180 million barrels that President Biden authorized to be sold earlier this year. The sales were intended to serve as a “wartime bridge” as domestic production in the United States ramps up, but White House officials said on Tuesday that Mr. Biden is prepared to authorize additional oil sales later this winter if needed.The reserve can hold about 700 million barrels of oil and has about 400 million remaining. White House officials say they intend to replenish the reserve when world oil prices decline to a range of $67 to $72 a barrel; they are now hovering around $90.Mr. Biden is expected to announce the plan on Wednesday. Officials said he would also call on refining companies not to gouge prices and to pass lower energy costs resulting from the oil releases onto consumers.Gas prices in the United States eased over the summer as the United States sold oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and concerns about a global recession deepened. They have increased again in recent weeks after the Saudi-led OPEC Plus decided to scale back petroleum supplies on the market by up to two million barrels per day to bolster the price of oil.The move angered Mr. Biden, who said last week that “there will be consequences” for Saudi Arabia’s decision.The White House has faced criticism from Republicans for depleting the strategic reserve ahead of the midterm elections, even as Republicans have made the specter of rising gas prices a central campaign theme.“Draining our emergency supplies is a shortsighted and dangerous choice that imperils our energy security at a critical time of global uncertainty,” Senator Jerry Moran, Republican of Kansas, said last week.The Biden administration has defended the decision, insisting that all Americans benefit from lower gas prices and that energy prices around the world are elevated because of Russia’s war in Ukraine.“President Biden has said for months how he is committed to doing everything that he can, in his power, to address Putin’s price hike,” Karine Jean-Pierre, the White House press secretary, said on Tuesday. “Should the president not do everything that he can to lower prices?” More

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    As Europe Piles Sanctions on Russia, Some Sacred Cows Are Spared

    The European Union has been severing economic ties with Moscow to support Ukraine, but some countries have lobbied to protect key sectors.BRUSSELS — Eight months into the war in Ukraine, and eight rounds of frantic negotiations later, Europe’s sanctions against Russia run hundreds of pages long and have in many places cut to the bone.Since February, the European Union has named 1,236 people and 155 companies for sanctions, freezing their assets and blocking their access to the bloc. It has banned the trade of products in nearly 1,000 categories and hundreds of subcategories. It has put in place a near-total embargo on Russian oil. About one-third of the bloc’s exports to Russia by value and two-thirds of imports have been banned.But even now some goods and sectors remain conspicuously exempted. A look at just a few items reveals the intense back-room bargaining and arm-twisting by some nations and by private industry to protect sectors they deem too valuable to give up — as well as the compromises the European Union has made to maintain consensus.The Belgians have shielded trade in Russian diamonds. The Greeks ship Russian oil unimpeded. France and several other nations still import Russian uranium for nuclear power generation.The net impact of these exemptions on the effectiveness of Europe’s penalties against Russia is hard to assess, but politically, they have allowed the 27 members of the bloc to pull together an otherwise vast sanctions regime with exceptional speed and unanimity.“Ultimately, this is the price of unanimity to hold together this coalition, and in the grander scheme of things the sanctions are really working,” said Jacob Kirkegaard, a senior fellow in the Brussels office of the research group the German Marshall Fund, citing Russia’s diminished access to military technology as evidence.A Lukoil gas station in Priolo Gargallo, Italy, last month. The European Union has put in place a near-total embargo on Russian oil, but some sectors of trade remain conspicuously exempt from sanctions.Gianni Cipriano for The New York Times“We would love to have everything included, diamonds and every other special interest hit, but I am of the opinion that, if sparing them is what it takes to keep everyone together, so be it,” he added.The Ukrainian government has criticized some of the exemptions, with President Volodymyr Zelensky chiding European nations for continuing to permit business with Russia, saying they are skirting sacrifices.“There are people for whom the diamonds sold in Antwerp are more important than the battle we are waging. Peace is worth much more than diamonds,” Mr. Zelensky said to the Belgian Parliament during an address by video link in late March.Keeping Diamonds ComingThe continued success of Belgium and the broad diamond sector in keeping the Russian diamond trade flowing exemplifies the sacred cows some E.U. nations refuse to sacrifice, even as their peers accept pain to punish the Kremlin.Exports of rough diamonds are very lucrative for Russia, and they flow to the Belgian port of Antwerp, a historically important diamond hub.The trade, worth 1.8 billion euros a year — about $1.75 billion — has been shielded in consecutive rounds of the bloc’s sanctions, despite being raised as a possible target soon after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in late February.The Belgian government has said that it has never asked the European Commission, the E.U. executive body that drafts the measures, to remove diamonds from any sanctions list and that if diamonds were added, it would go along.Diamonds being sorted in Mirny, Russia, at a facility operated by Alrosa, the Russian state-owned diamond company. Russian diamonds have been shielded in consecutive rounds of European sanctions.Maxim Babenko for The New York TimesTechnically speaking, that may be true. But the latest round of penalties, adopted this month, exposed the intensive interventions when a coordination error occurred among the various services in the bloc that are involved in the technical preparation of sanctions.The incident, described to The New York Times by several diplomats involved as “farcical,” shows how the lobbying works. The diplomats spoke anonymously in order to describe freely what happened.The European Commission over the course of September prepared the latest round of sanctions and left diamonds off that list.But the European External Action Service — the E.U.’s equivalent of a foreign service or state department, which works with the commission to prepare sanctions — did not get the memo that diamonds should remain exempted and included in its own draft listings Alrosa, the Russian state-owned diamonds company.Once Alrosa had been put on the draft document, removing it became difficult. Spotting the error, Poland and other hard-line pro-Ukraine countries in the bloc dragged out the negotiations over the package as much as they could on the basis that Alrosa should indeed face sanctions.In the end, the need for unanimity and speed prevailed, and Alrosa continues to export to the European Union, at least until the next round of sanctions is negotiated. In proposals for a fresh, ninth round of sanctions, presented by Poland and its allies last week, diamonds were again included, but formal talks on the new set of penalties have not yet begun.A spokesman for the European External Action Service declined to comment, saying it does not comment on internal procedures involved in preparing sanctions.The Tricastin nuclear power plant in the Drôme region of southeastern France. France is one of several E.U. countries that depend on Russian uranium to operate civil nuclear power facilities. Andrea Mantovani for The New York TimesNuclear PowerMost exemptions have not been as clear-cut as diamonds because they have involved more complex industries or services, or affected more than one country.Uranium exported from Russia for use in civil nuclear power production falls under this category. Nuclear power plants in France, Hungary, Slovakia, Finland and other countries depend on Russian civilian uranium exports.The trade is worth 200 million euros, or about $194 million, according to Greenpeace, which has been lobbying for its ban. Germany and other E.U. countries have supported the calls to ban civilian nuclear imports from Russia, making this another issue likely to come up in the next round of sanctions talks.In August, Mr. Zelensky also highlighted the persistent protection of the Russian nuclear exports to Europe just as Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant came under fire.Some supporters of keeping Russian uranium running say that France and the other countries’ ability to generate electricity by operating their nuclear power plants during an acute energy crisis is more important than the political or financial gains that could come from a ban through E.U. sanctions, at least for now.Tankers in the NightOne of the most complex and important lobbying efforts to protect a European industry from sanctions is the one mounted by Greek diplomats to allow Greek-owned tankers to transport Russian oil to non-European destinations.This has facilitated one of the Kremlin’s biggest revenue streams. More than half of the vessels transporting Russia’s oil are Greek-owned, according to information aggregated from MarineTraffic, a shipping data platform.Supporters of the Greek shipping industry say that if it pulled out of that business, others would step in to deliver Russian oil to places like India and China. Experts say lining up enough tankers to make up for a total Greek pullout would not be simple, considering the sheer size of Greek-interest fleets and their dominance in this trade.According to European diplomats involved in the negotiations, their Greek counterparts were able to exempt Greek shipping companies from the oil embargo in a tough round of talks last May and June.Since then, the E.U. has come around to a United States-led idea to keep facilitating the transport of Russian oil, in order to avert a global oil-market meltdown, but to do so at a capped price to limit Russia’s revenues.The Greeks saw an opening: They would continue to transport Russian oil, but at the capped price. The bloc offered them additional concessions, and Greece agreed that the shipping of Russian oil would be banned if the price cap was not observed.The Greek-flagged oil tanker Minerva Virgo. Greek diplomats have lobbied for Greek-owned tankers to be allowed to transport Russian oil to non-European destinations. Bjoern Kils/ReutersEven if the economic benefits of such exemptions are hard to define, from a political perspective, the continued protection of some goods and industries is creating bad blood among E.U. members.Governments that have readily taken big hits through sanctions to support Ukraine, sacrificing revenues and jobs, are embittered that their partners in the bloc continue to doggedly protect their own interests.The divisions deepen a sense of disconnect between those more hawkish pro-Ukraine E.U. nations nearer Ukraine and those farther away, although geographical proximity is far from the only determinant of countries’ attitudes toward the war.And given that the bloc is a constant negotiating arena on many issues, some warn that what goes around eventually will come around.“This may be a raw calculation of national interests, but it’s going to linger,” Mr. Kirkegaard said. “Whoever doesn’t contribute now through sacrifice, next time there’s a budget or some other debate, it’s going to come back and haunt them.” More

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    French Refineries Strike May Presage a Winter of Discontent for Europe

    Bitten by inflation, workers are demanding a greater share of the surging profits of energy giants. It’s the kind of unrest leaders fear as they struggle to keep a united front against Russia.LE HAVRE, France — The northern port city of Le Havre is less than 25 miles away from two major oil refineries. But on Friday, the pumps at many gas stations were wrapped in red and white tape, the electric price signs flashing all nines. Little gasoline was to be had.Across France, a third of stations are fully or partly dry, victims of a fast-widening strike that has spread to most of the country’s major refineries, as well as some nuclear plants and railways, offering a preview of a winter of discontent as inflation and energy shortages threaten to undercut Europe’s stability and its united front against Russia for its war in Ukraine.At the very least the strike — pitting refinery workers seeking a greater share of the surging profits against the oil giants TotalEnergies and Exxon Mobil — has already emerged as the first major social crisis of Emmanuel Macron’s second term as president, as calls grow for a general strike next Tuesday.“It’s going to become a general strike. You will see,” said Julien Lemmonier, 77, a retired factory worker stepping out of the supermarket in Le Havre on a gray and rainy morning. He warned that if the port workers followed suit, “It will be over.”Striking employees of the Total refinery on Thursday.Andrea Mantovani for The New York TimesThe widening social unrest is just what European leaders fear as inflation hits its highest level in decades, driven in part by snarls in post-pandemic global supply chains, but also by the mounting impact of the tit-for-tat economic battle between Europe and Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.Economic anxiety is palpable across Europe, driving large protests in Prague, Britain’s biggest railway strike in three decades, as well as walkouts by bus drivers, call center employees and criminal defense lawyers, and causing many governments to introduce relief measures to cushion the blow and ward off still more turbulence. Airline workers in Spain and Germany went on strike recently, demanding wage increases to reflect the rising cost of living.For France the strikes have touched a long-worn nerve of the growing disparity between the wealthy few and the growing struggling classes, as well as the gnawing worry about making ends meet in the cold winter ahead.Workers at half of the country’s eight refineries are continuing to picket for higher wages in line with inflation, as well as a cut of the sky-high profits their companies made over recent months, as the price of gasoline has surged.“The money exists, and it should be distributed,” said Pascal Morel, the regional head of Confédération Générale du Travail, or CGT, France’s second-largest union, which has been leading the strikes. “Rather than laying claim to the striking workers, we should lay claim to their profits.”Pascal Morel, the regional head of Confédération Générale du Travail, one of France’s largest unions, which has been leading the strikes. Andrea Mantovani for The New York TimesSlow to notice at first, the country was rudely awoken to the strike’s effect this week, when pumps across the country ran out of fuel, forcing frustrated motorists to hunt around and then line up — sometimes for hours — at stations that were still open. Nerves quickly frayed, and reports of fistfights between enraged drivers buzzed on the news.In Le Havre, as in the rest of the country, residents revealed mixed feelings about the strikes. Some expressed solidarity with the workers, while others complained about how a small group was holding the entire country hostage. On both sides of the divide, however, many feared the strike would spread.The State of the WarA Large-Scale Strike: President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia unleashed a series of missile strikes that hit at least 10 cities across Ukraine, including Kyiv, in a broad aerial assault against civilians and critical infrastructure that drew international condemnation and calls for de-escalation.Crimean Bridge Explosion: Mr. Putin said that the strikes were retaliation for a blast that hit a key Russian bridge over the weekend. The bridge, which links the Crimean Peninsula to Russia, is a primary supply route for Russian troops fighting in the south of Ukraine.Pressure on Putin: With his strikes on civilian targets in Ukraine, Mr. Putin appears to be responding to his critics at home, momentarily quieting the clamors of hard-liners furious with the Russian military’s humiliating setbacks on the battlefield.Arming Ukraine: The Russian strikes brought new pledges from the West to send in more arms to Ukraine, especially sophisticated air-defense systems. But Kyiv also needs the Russian-style weapons that its military is trained to use, and the global supply of them is running low.“It’s going to bring France to a standstill and I assure you it doesn’t need that,” said Fatma Zekri, 54, an out-of-work accountant.On Thursday, workers echoed the call for a general strike next Tuesday originally issued by the CGT and later supported by three other large unions. And a long-planned protest by left-wing parties over the rising cost of living scheduled for Sunday threatens to become even larger.For Mr. Macron, the strike holds obvious perils, with echoes of the social unrest of the Yellow Vest movement — a widespread series of protests that started as a revolt against higher taxes on fuel. The movement may have dissipated, but its anger has not.In Le Havre, residents revealed mixed feelings about the strikes. Some expressed solidarity with the workers, while others complained about how a small group was holding the entire country hostage.Andrea Mantovani for The New York TimesThe protests paralyzed France for months in 2018 and 2019, led by lower-middle class workers who took to the streets and roundabouts, raging against a climate change tax on gas that they felt was an insulting symbol of how little the government cared about them and their sliding quality of life.The current strikes illustrated a longstanding question that continues to torment many in the country, said Bruno Cautrès, a political analyst at the Center for Political Research at Sciences Po University — “Why do I live in a country that is rich and I am struggling?”Speaking of the president, Mr. Cautrès said, “He has not managed to answer this simple question.”After winning his re-election last April, Mr. Macron promised he would shed his reputation as a top-down ruler and govern the country in a more collaborative way.“The main risk is that he will not succeed in convincing people that the second term is dedicated to dialogue, to easing tensions,” Mr. Cautrès said.But even as he faced criticism that his government had allowed the crisis to get to this point, Mr. Macron sounded defiant on Wednesday night, saying in an interview with the French television channel France 2 that it was “not up to the president of the republic to negotiate with businesses.”The Total refinery, shuttered during a strike by workers.Andrea Mantovani for The New York TimesHis government has already forced some workers back to a refinery near Le Havre and a depot near Dunkirk.“I can’t believe that for one second, our ability to heat our homes, light our homes and go to the gas pump would be put at risk by French people who say, ‘No, to protect my interests, I will compromise those of the nation,’” he said.Still, Mr. Macron is treading a very fine line. The issue of “super profits” has become a charged one in Parliament, with opposition lawmakers from both the left and right demanding companies reaping windfalls be taxed, to benefit the greater population.Over the first half of the year, TotalEnergies made $10 billion in profit and Exxon Mobil raked in $18 billion. Western oil and gas companies have generated record profits thanks to booming energy prices, which have risen because of the war in Ukraine and allowed Russia to rake in billions in revenues even as it cuts oil and gas supplies to Europe. A recent OPEC Plus deal involving Saudi Arabia and Russia to cut production is likely to further raise prices.Earlier this week, Exxon Mobil announced that it had come to an agreement with two of four unions working at its sites, “out of a desire to urgently and responsibly to put an end to the strikes.” But the wage increase was one percentage point less than CGT had demanded, and half the bonus.In its own news release, TotalEnergies said the company continued to aim for “fair compensation for the employees” and to ensure they benefited “from the exceptional results generated” by the company.On Friday, two unions at TotalEnergies announced they had reached a deal for a 7 percent wage increase and a bonus. But CGT, which has demanded a 10 percent hike, walked out of the negotiation and said it would continue the strike.To date, Mr. Macron has been loath to tax the oil giants’ windfall profits, worrying it would tarnish the country’s investment appeal, and preferring instead that companies make what he termed a “contribution.”However, last week the government introduced an amendment to its finance bill, in keeping with new European Union measures, applying a temporary tax on oil, gas and coal producers that make 20 percent more in profit on their French operations than they did during recent years.On Thursday, France’s Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire also called on TotalEnergies to raise wages for salaried workers. And he announced that 1.7 billion euros, about $1.65 billion, would be earmarked to help motorists if fuel prices continued to rise.“It is a company that is now making significant profits,” Mr. Le Maire told RTL radio station on Thursday. “Total has paid dividends, so the sharing of value in France must be fair.”The pumps at gas stations were wrapped in red and white tape, the electric price signs flashing all nines. Andrea Mantovani for The New York TimesThe tangle of pipes and towering smokestacks of the hulking Total refinery in Gonfreville-l’Orcher, just outside of Le Havre, were eerily silent on Thursday, as union members burned wood pallets, hoisted flags and voted to continue the strike.Many believed their anger captured a building sentiment in the country, where even with generous government subsidies, people are struggling financially and are increasingly anxious about the winter of energy cutbacks. Inflation in France, though lower than in the rest of Europe, has surpassed 6 percent, jacking the prices of some basic supplies like frozen meat, pasta and tissues.“This era must end — the era of hogging for some, and rationing for others,” François Ruffin told the protesters on Thursday. Mr. Ruffin, a filmmaker turned elected official with the country’s hard-left France Unbowed party, rose to prominence with his satirical documentary film about France’s richest man, Bernard Arnault, and the loss of middle-class jobs to globalization.If anything should be requisitioned, it should be the profits of huge companies, not workers, many said at the protest sites.David Guillemard, a striker who has worked at the Total refinery for 22 years, said the back-to-work order had kicked a hornet’s nest. “Instead of calming people,” he said, “this has irritated them.” More

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    Biden to ‘Re-Evaluate’ Relationship With Saudi Arabia After Oil Production Cut

    Angered by the kingdom’s decision to team up with Russia to slash petroleum output, the president signaled openness to retaliatory measures proposed in Congress, including a halt to arms sales and a new antitrust measure.President Biden is re-evaluating the relationship with Saudi Arabia after it teamed up with Russia to cut oil production in a move that bolstered President Vladimir V. Putin’s government and could raise American gasoline prices just before midterm elections, a White House official said on Tuesday.“I think the president’s been very clear that this is a relationship that we need to continue to re-evaluate, that we need to be willing to revisit,” the official, John F. Kirby, the strategic communications coordinator for the National Security Council at the White House, said on CNN. “And certainly in light of the OPEC decision, I think that’s where he is.”Mr. Kirby signaled openness to retaliatory measures proposed by Democratic congressional leaders outraged by the oil production cut announced last week by the international cartel known as OPEC Plus. Among other things, leading Democrats have proposed curbing American security cooperation with Saudi Arabia, including arms sales, and stripping OPEC members of their legal immunity so they can be sued for violations of American antitrust laws.“The president’s obviously disappointed by the OPEC decision and is going to be willing to work with Congress as we think about what the right relationship with Saudi Arabia needs to be going forward,” Mr. Kirby said. He sounded a note of urgency. “The timeline’s now and I think he’s going to be willing to start to have those conversations right away,” he said. “I don’t think this is anything that’s going to have to wait or should wait quite frankly for much longer.”The comments came just a day after Senator Bob Menendez, Democrat of New Jersey and chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, assailed Saudi Arabia for effectively backing Russia in its brutal invasion of Ukraine and called for an immediate freeze on “all aspects of our cooperation with Saudi Arabia,” vowing to use his power to block any future arms sales.The Biden PresidencyWith midterm elections approaching, here’s where President Biden stands.Diplomatic Limits: OPEC’s decision to curb oil production has exposed the failure of President Biden’s fist-bump diplomacy with the crown prince of Saudi Arabia.Defending Democracy: Mr. Biden’s drive to buttress democracy at home and abroad has taken on more urgency by the persistent power of China, Russia and former President Donald J. Trump.A Tricky Message: Even as he condemns Trumpism, Mr. Biden has taken pains to show that he understands that not all Republicans are what he calls extremist “MAGA Republicans.”Questions About 2024: Mr. Biden has said he plans to run for a second term, but at 79, his age has become an uncomfortable issue.“There simply is no room to play both sides of this conflict — either you support the rest of the free world in trying to stop a war criminal from violently wiping off an entire country off of the map, or you support him,” Mr. Menendez said. “The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia chose the latter in a terrible decision driven by economic self-interest.”Senator Dick Durbin of Illinois, the second-ranking Democrat in the Senate, said on Tuesday morning that Saudi Arabia clearly wanted Russia to win the war in Ukraine. “Let’s be very candid about this,” he said on CNN. “It’s Putin and Saudi Arabia against the United States.”.css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.Mr. Biden’s willingness to consider retaliatory measures represents a marked shift for a president who had sought to improve relations with Saudi Arabia in recent months and reflected deep anger in the White House about the decision last week by the Saudi-led OPEC Plus group to cut oil production by up to two million barrels a day.The president absorbed withering criticism for visiting Saudi Arabia in July and giving a fist bump to its crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, despite a campaign promise to make the kingdom an international “pariah” for the killing of the Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a columnist for The Washington Post and a resident of the United States. The C.I.A. has determined that Prince Mohammed ordered the operation that led to the murder and dismemberment of Mr. Khashoggi in 2018.Overcoming his own reservations, Mr. Biden went along with advisers who argued that it was worth the political hit to restore ties with Saudi Arabia for a variety of reasons, including the need to bolster energy markets given the effort to isolate Russia, one of the biggest oil producers in the world. While no specific announcements were made during his visit to Jeddah in July, American officials said at the time that they had an understanding with Saudi Arabia that it would increase oil production in the fall and thus lower gasoline prices heading into the crucial congressional elections.The Saudi decision to do the opposite last week in defiance of American entreaties was a blow to Mr. Biden and opened him up to further criticism even from fellow Democrats who argued that Saudi Arabia should be punished. Three House Democrats announced legislation requiring the removal of American troops and defensive systems from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.After falling for more than three months, gas prices are rising again, increasing by 12 cents a gallon on average over the last week to $3.92, according to AAA, although they remain far below the June peak of just over $5. The White House was counting on dropping gas prices to buttress Democratic efforts to keep control of both houses of Congress in the Nov. 8 election.The anger at Saudi Arabia in Washington was exacerbated in the last couple of days by Russia’s latest airstrikes against civilian targets across Ukraine. Democrats increasingly framed the dispute with Saudi Arabia less in terms of concern over domestic gas prices in a campaign season and more about the kingdom’s willingness to aid Mr. Putin’s aggression. More

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    Gas Prices in U.S. Rise Amid West Coast Refinery Shutdowns

    The gains could raise pressure on policymakers, but analysts say the higher prices may be short-lived as refineries in California and Washington restart production.Gasoline prices in the United States are creeping higher, reversing a monthslong streak of declines and chipping away at a potent talking point for the Biden administration, which had been emphasizing its success at easing pressure on drivers since the summer.Though the uptick has followed a rise in crude oil prices, analysts pointed to two new factors that are also pushing gasoline higher — a loss of refining capacity in California and Ohio, and rising demand in recent weeks.The national average price of regular gasoline stood at $3.891 a gallon on Friday, climbing for more than two weeks, according to data from AAA. That’s lower than the record of about $5.02 reached in June but still higher than usual for this time of year.Prices have made a particularly big leap in California. At about $6.39 a gallon, prices are close to the state’s June record of $6.44. Gas prices there and in other Western states, including Nevada and Arizona, jumped after several refineries in the region closed for maintenance.The rise, should it last, could increase pressure on the White House to act quickly to bring prices back down. A spike in gas prices, which followed a surge in crude oil and other energy costs after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, became both a political liability and a policy headache as consumer prices rose across the board.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsWith the primaries over, both parties are shifting their focus to the general election on Nov. 8.Standing by Herschel Walker: After a report that the G.O.P. Senate candidate in Georgia paid for a girlfriend’s abortion in 2009, Republicans rallied behind him, fearing that a break with the former football star could hurt the party’s chances to take the Senate.Wisconsin Senate Race: Mandela Barnes, the Democratic candidate, is wobbling in his contest against Senator Ron Johnson, the Republican incumbent, as an onslaught of G.O.P. attack ads takes a toll.G.O.P. Senate Gains: After signs emerged that Republicans were making gains in the race for the Senate, the polling shift is now clear, writes Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst.Democrats’ Closing Argument: Buoyed by polls that show the end of Roe v. Wade has moved independent voters their way, vulnerable House Democrats have reoriented their campaigns around abortion rights in the final weeks before the election.President Biden, who over the summer responded to the increase in gas prices by chiding energy companies for profiteering on consumers, released oil from strategic reserves and encouraged Saudi Arabia to produce more oil. Gas prices eventually started to decline, as global oil prices tumbled amid rising concern about the slowing global economy and demand eased.As the streak of declines stretched to 98 days, the White House regularly pointed to the drop and the savings it would offer to drivers.The recent jump means White House officials have been pressed to address the issue again. Brian Deese, the director of the National Economic Council, said on Thursday that energy companies needed to lower prices at the pump.“If you look at the gap between wholesale and retail prices, it has come down,” he said during a press briefing. “It hasn’t come down enough — right? — but it has come down.”Analysts say the refinery shutdowns will be temporary, and the fact that Americans tend to drive less in the winter could keep prices from climbing as sharply as they did in June. But a recent rebound in crude oil prices, which rose nearly 17 percent this week as the world’s major oil producers agreed to cut production, means predicting what’s next will be difficult.“This is not the Biden administration’s fault, but they know that if gas prices are back at $4.50 on Election Day, they’re in trouble,” said Tom Kloza, a founder of Oil Price Information Service, a price reporting agency, referring to the November midterm elections.Aside from the political consequences, a sustained rise in gas prices could affect how businesses and consumers view the economy. In July, falling gas prices were a key part of the better-than-expected reading of the Consumer Price Index, offering a brief glimmer of hope to those looking for signs that inflation has peaked.Among the West Coast refineries that have shut down is one in Washington State run by Phillips 66 and two near San Francisco that are run by Valero and Chevron. Not every shutdown is predictable. A fire at a BP-owned refinery near Toledo, Ohio, shuttered that facility in September. It may not reopen until early 2023, Bloomberg News reported late last month, citing unnamed sources. In Ohio, the average price of gas rose to $3.939 a gallon on Friday from $3.609 a month earlier.Chevron and Phillips 66 said they do not comment on the day-to-day operations of their refineries. BP and Valero didn’t immediately respond to questions about the refineries. The refineries do not typically release much detail about closings or when they expect to reopen, analysts said.Prices in California and other states have fallen slightly since Gov. Gavin Newsom said last week that the state could start producing its winter blend of gasoline early, which is cheaper for refiners to produce since it contains fewer of the additives that protect against environmental conditions in the summer. The introduction of the winter blend, paired with the potential for slowed demand in fall and winter driving seasons, could help bring prices back down, said Devin Gladden, a spokesman for AAA.On Friday, Mr. Newsom said on Twitter that he would call a special session of the California Legislature to weigh “a windfall profits tax” on energy companies that are profiting from high prices, a move that some Democratic lawmakers in Washington have also called for. Britain announced a similar tax on the “extraordinary” profits of oil companies in May.On Wednesday, the group known as OPEC Plus, which includes Saudi Arabia and Russia, said that it would slash oil production by two million barrels a day, a decision that drew an immediate condemnation from the Biden administration. On Thursday, Mr. Biden told reporters that he was “disappointed” by the decision, and the White House also said it would release more oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the country’s stockpile of crude oil.Though oil prices have climbed sharply this week, the recent increase in gas prices began in September, well before the OPEC Plus decision.The overall impact of the announcement remains “a big maybe,” Mr. Gladden said. It could lead to a short-term rise in prices, but whether or not it is sustained depends on how energy investors react to the cut, he said. Analysts have noted that several OPEC Plus members are already unable to meet production quotas.Crude oil prices account for more than half of the cost of gasoline. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, the U.S. benchmark stood at about $93 a barrel on Friday, well below its peak of $130 in March but still up more than 23 percent since the beginning of the year.“This really hasn’t been about crude,” Mr. Kloza, the Oil Price Information Service founder, said of the most recent gain. “It’s been about the inability to refine a lot of that crude for various reasons.”Mr. Kloza said he did not think an “extraordinary spike” in prices was ahead, particularly one comparable to what consumers experienced earlier in the year. Still, prices are subject to several variables —  many of which, including hurricanes or wildfires that lead to major refinery shutdowns, are unpredictable.“If we lost one of these big refineries that can run 500,000 barrels a day of crude or more, it can really haunt the markets,” Mr. Kloza said. More