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    Thailand’s Prime Minister Vote Puts Coalition at Risk

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    The progressive Move Forward Party has failed to form a government, leaving members of the liberal opposition scrambling to find alternatives.After winning the general election in May, the progressive Move Forward party in Thailand promised to introduce bold democratic reforms in the Southeast Asian nation. But last week, the party suffered an embarrassing defeat in Parliament when its candidate of choice failed to muster enough votes to win the premiership and form a government.Now, as Parliament gathers on Wednesday to vote for prime minister for a second time in less than a week, the fragile coalition that Move Forward has cobbled together is on the verge of falling apart. At stake may be the fate of democracy in a nation that has repeatedly tried to overturn military rule and in a region where autocracy is on the rise.“Thailand is not ready to change,” said Pongkwan Sawasdipakdi, a political scientist at Thammasat University in Bangkok. “People in the establishment are not going to let change happen.”Opposition parties tend to come and go in Thailand. Each time, they face rough headwinds brought on by the military-appointed Senate and royalist allies that form the bedrock of the country’s conservative political establishment.Move Forward’s predecessor, the Future Forward Party, was dissolved by the Thai government in 2020 after being accused of violating election law. The leader of Move Forward, Pita Limjaroenrat, is under investigation for owning undisclosed shares of a media company, which could disqualify him from office.Supporters see both cases as flagrant moves by the establishment to block the opposition from wresting power from the ruling conservative government.If the Move Forward coalition falls short on Wednesday, that may be a prelude to another cycle of unrest in Thailand, which was rocked by widespread pro-democracy protests during the coronavirus pandemic. But analysts say the opposition could offer a compromise: a new coalition led by the populist Pheu Thai Party, a familiar name in Thai politics that hews much closer to the status quo.Mr. Limjaroenrat reacting after failing to muster enough votes to win the premiership last week.Rungroj Yongrit/EPA, via ShutterstockAfter Wednesday, Pheu Thai could try to form an alternate coalition that appeals to voters who thought Move Forward was pushing for too much change, as well as to the conservative establishment, whose dismal performance in the election has left it with few options for maintaining its present grip on power.Forming a new opposition coalition will present its own challenges for Pheu Thai.For any new coalition to stand a chance, it needs to include conservative and military-backed parties, which will make demands that will likely run counter to the wishes of Move Forward voters. Those supporters, rather than backing the new government, may choose to take to the streets.“There will be protests,” said Phit Bunwiwatthanakan, 32, a Move Forward voter who owns a cat cafe in the northern Thai city of Chiang Rai. “People feel that, since they won the election, their people have a right to form a government.”There is also a possibility that Mr. Pita may not be given the opportunity to stand for renomination on Wednesday. He has said that if it becomes clear Move Forward cannot get him approved as prime minister, the party would allow Pheu Thai to lead the same coalition.The sort of compromises Pheu Thai might be willing to make in order to form its own coalition are unclear. The party, which won the second-largest vote share in the election, was established by Thailand’s most famous politician, the populist leader Thaksin Shinawatra, who has been living in exile after being ousted by a coup and accused of corruption. Many of Mr. Thaksin’s populist policies remain popular among Thais.“Pheu Thai’s really in the driver’s seat for deciding the future of Thailand,” in part because the establishment will likely try to dissolve Move Forward, said David Streckfuss, a historian and the author or “Truth on Trial in Thailand.”With the vote on Wednesday unlikely to end with a new government in power, analysts are already looking ahead to a third vote, which could happen as early as Thursday.Winning the premiership requires a simple majority of votes in the 500-seat House of Representatives and the 250-seat, military-appointed Senate. Pheu Thai has 141 seats, just 10 less than Move Forward, so it would need conservative parties to cobble together a new coalition.A coalition built by Pheu Thai would likely be led by Srettha Thavisin, 60, a property mogul with little political experience, but who is seen as a more palatable option to the generals than Mr. Pita, the Move Forward candidate. (Paetongtarn Shinawatra, 36, the youngest daughter of Mr. Thaksin, had been an early front-runner in the general election, but told reporters on Tuesday that the party would support Mr. Srettha as prime minister.)Paetongtarn Shinawatra, right, and Sretta Thavisin, left, accompanied by key members of the Pheu Thai Party at party headquarters in Bangkok, in May.Rungroj Yongrit/EPA, via ShutterstockTo some Pheu Thai supporters, Move Forward’s tactics, including its refusal to water down its ambitious plans challenging the military and the monarchy, look unworkable in a hierarchical society where pragmatic, palace-friendly parties tend to do best.Pheu Thai cannot deliver on economic priorities if Move Forward leaders “keep complaining about social issues and laws,” Sanpiti Sittipunt, the son of the governor of Bangkok, wrote on Instagram on Tuesday. He added that Move Forward should “listen to the adults.”By defecting from the opposition coalition formed by Move Forward, Pheu Thai could damage its political brand and that of its figurehead, Mr. Thaksin. But the long-term reputational damage might be worth another chance at power, analysts said, particularly if a compromise with the military involved getting permission for Mr. Thaksin to return from exile in Dubai.For now, Pheu Thai is still publicly projecting unity with Move Forward. This week, the two allies and their six smaller partners agreed that Mr. Pita would stand again for the second vote for prime minister on Wednesday.If street protests swell across Thailand after the votes are cast, the fear is that the military would feel compelled to restore order with gunfire, as it did in 2010, or even with a coup, as it did four years later.Any protests would probably only escalate if a military figure became prime minister again, following the lead of the current one, former Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha. Analysts say there is still an outside chance that the conservative establishment could nominate its own candidate for a third vote, such as Gen. Prawit Wongsuwan, 77, a top official in the current government.Anti-government protesters gathering at Ratchaprasong Intersection in the commercial center of Bangkok, in 2020.Adam Dean for The New York TimesEvery possible move to break the current political impasse risks creating more problems, said Jatuporn Prompan, a former protest leader and Pheu Thai lawmaker. A prolonged state of limbo without a prime minister could lead to raging demonstrations, followed by a crackdown, and perhaps another coup.“This is why the country’s in a crisis,” he said.Ms. Paetongtarn, Mr. Thaksin’s youngest daughter, said that Pheu Thai was eager to get to work on developing the economy and improving the lives of ordinary people. “If we focus on the small picture, it’s one of who’s up and this and that,” she told reporters on Tuesday. “But the country has to move on already.”Muktita Suhartono More

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      Opposition Forms New Coalition in Thailand After Election

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      Thais voted overwhelmingly for change on Sunday, but the military-appointed Senate could still block the opposition’s nomination for prime minister.The two opposition parties that won the largest share of the vote in Thailand’s general election over the weekend said on Monday that they had agreed to form a coalition government. It remained unclear, however, whether the ruling junta would hand over power easily.The results of the election were a stinging rebuke to the country’s military leaders, who have governed Thailand since seizing power in a coup in 2014. Although Thailand is a nation where coups are not uncommon, it had never been under military rule for so long.Many voters, disillusioned with the never-ending cycle of putsches and protests, used the election on Sunday to demonstrate overwhelmingly that they wanted change.“People have been through enough of a lost decade,” Pita Limjaroenrat, the leader of the progressive Move Forward Party, told reporters on Monday. “Today is a new day.”The Move Forward Party — which has called for an overhaul of the military and amending a strict law that criminalizes criticism of the Thai monarchy — secured 151 seats out of the 500-member House of Representatives. The result defied opinion polls, which had predicted a strong victory for Pheu Thai, the country’s largest opposition party, founded by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.Pheu Thai won 141 seats, which, like Move Forward, was short of a clear majority. The two parties announced during separate news conferences on Monday that they had agreed to work together to form a government.Mr. Pita has led the effort to build the coalition. He said that five parties, including Pheu Thai, had already joined him, boosting the opposition’s control over Parliament to 309 out of 500 seats. “It’s safe to assume that we have secured a majority in forming a government,” Mr. Pita said on Monday.Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, the general who seized power in the 2014 coup, said on Sunday that he “has respect for the democratic process and the election results.” His party, United Thai Nation, won only 36 seats.Prayut Chan-ocha, Thailand’s current prime minister and the United Thai Nation Party’s candidate, said he “has respect for the democratic process and the election results.”Lillian Suwanrumpha/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesMr. Pita’s quick work in assembling a coalition lowered some uncertainty around what many Thais have described as the most consequential election of their lifetimes. But it was still unclear if he would be allowed to lead the country as prime minister.The military-appointed Senate, which has the power to select the prime minister through a joint vote in parliament, may still block Mr. Pita from the position.Many analysts questioned whether the Senate would tolerate any election results that threaten the status quo. Move Forward has targeted institutions and policies once considered sacrosanct in Thai society, including abolishing mandatory military conscription and reducing the punishments for the law that protects the monarchy from criticism.With Pheu Thai in government, it could effectively place the party’s founder and one of the military’s top rivals, Mr. Thaksin, back at the center of the country’s politics. The king must also endorse the appointment of prime minister.At a news conference, Mr. Pita said he was not concerned about opposition from the Senate. “With the consensus that came out of the election, it would be quite a hefty price to pay for someone who’s thinking of abolishing the election results or forming a minority government,” he said. “And I don’t think the people of Thailand would allow that to happen.”But if history is any indicator, the military, which has dominated Thai politics for decades, is unlikely to relinquish power quickly. In addition to engineering a dozen coups within a century, Thai generals rewrote the Constitution in 2017 to stack the Senate with allies and ensure that the military would have the power to determine the country’s prime minister.Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Srettha Thavisin, Pheu Thai Party candidates for prime minister, after a news conference on Monday. Their party opted to form a coalition with the Move Forward Party.Lauren Decicca/Getty ImagesGregory Raymond, a lecturer researching Southeast Asian politics at the Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs, said there was still a possibility that the two military proxy parties — United Thai Nation and Palang Pracharath — could cobble together enough seats to mount their own claim to government. “That is still, in my mind, the last scenario. It would be highly undemocratic but can’t be ruled out at this point,” Mr. Raymond said.Analysts warned that the Senate choosing to block Mr. Pita’s appointment would likely galvanize protests in Thailand, plunging the country into more political turmoil.“I think the reaction will be much more dangerous than four years ago,” said Purawich Watanasukh, a research fellow at King Prajadhipok’s Institute in Thailand, referring to the nation’s previous election. “Right now, many people have Pita as their new prime minister in their minds. If Pita cannot be prime minister and Move Forward cannot form the government, it will break the people’s hearts. And it will be very, very bad.”In 2020, the country’s Constitutional Court disbanded the Future Forward Party, the previous iteration of the Move Forward Party, after the election. Tens of thousand of Thais took to the streets of Bangkok to protest the decision.What started out as a protest for democratic reforms quickly grew into a pro-democracy movement calling for checks on the Thai monarchy, a subject that was once considered taboo.The country’s conservatives are likely to step up their campaigns to block the rise of Move Forward in the coming days. Last week, a conservative candidate petitioned the Election Commission and the National Anti-Corruption Commission to investigate Mr. Pita for failing to disclose that he owned shares of a now-defunct media company that he had inherited from his father. By law, no candidates running for Member of Parliament are allowed to hold shares in a media firm.Mr. Pita brushed off the petition, saying he had already reported the shares to the authorities.But Move Forward will need to manage many competing interests to keep the coalition intact. It was the only large party that pushed to amend a law criminalizing criticism of the monarchy, arguing that the law had been weaponized by royalists to persecute protesters who participated in pro-democracy demonstrations.Anti-government protesters clashing with riot police in Bangkok in 2020.Adam Dean for The New York TimesOn Sunday night, Mr. Pita said he was still going to press ahead with amending the royal protection law.Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the youngest daughter of Mr. Thaksin and a Pheu Thai candidate for prime minister, said on Monday that she was “ready to discuss” the issue of young people being charged with violating the law, known as Article 112. But she added that her party would not vote to get rid of the law altogether.“We will have to tell Move Forward Party that we do not support the abolishment of Article 112,” she said.Pirada Anuwech More

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      In Blow to Junta, Thai Voters Overwhelmingly Back Opposition Parties

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      Thais on Sunday cast votes against their military leaders, backing instead a populist political mainstay and a progressive upstart bent on shaking up the status quo.Voters in Thailand overwhelmingly sought to end nearly a decade of military rule on Sunday, casting ballots in favor of two opposition parties that have pledged to curtail the power of the country’s powerful conservative institutions: the military and the monarchy.With 97 percent of the votes counted early Monday morning, the progressive Move Forward Party was neck and neck with the populist Pheu Thai Party. Move Forward had won 151 seats to Pheu Thai’s 141 in the 500-seat House of Representatives.In most parliamentary systems, the two parties would form a new governing coalition and choose a prime minister. But under the rules of the current Thai system, written by the military after its 2014 coup, the junta will still play kingmaker.The election had widely been seen as an easy victory for Pheu Thai, the country’s largest opposition party founded by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. A billionaire tycoon, Mr. Thaksin, 73, was ousted in a coup in 2006 after accusations of corruption, but he is still fondly remembered as a populist champion for the rural poor. Polls had showed that Mr. Thaksin’s youngest daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, 36, was the leading choice for prime minister.But in a surprise, the Move Forward Party, a progressive political party that called for upending old power structures and amending a law that criminalizes public criticism of the monarchy, made stunning strides, capturing young urban voters, and the capital, Bangkok.“We can frame this election as a referendum on traditional power centers in Thai politics,” said Napon Jatusripitak, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. “People want change, and not just a change of government, they want structural reform.”Supporters of the Move Forward Party react as they watch results come in at the party headquarters in Bangkok on Sunday night.Jack Taylor/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe key question that many Thais now have is whether the military establishment, which has long kept an iron grip on Thailand’s politics, will accept the result.Move Forward has targeted institutions and policies once considered sacrosanct in Thai society, including mandatory military conscription and the laws that protect the king from criticism. And having the Pheu Thai Party in government could effectively place the party’s founder and one of the military’s top rivals, Mr. Thaksin, back at the center of the country’s politics.The results were a humbling blow for Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, the general who governed Thailand for almost nine years, the longest stretch of military governance in a nation used to coups.Mr. Prayuth has presided over a lagging economy, and in 2020 waged a harsh crackdown on protesters who gathered in the streets of Bangkok to call for democratic reforms. Although Thailand is one of two formal U.S. allies in Southeast Asia, he distanced himself from Washington and leaned closer to Beijing.As of early Monday, it remained unclear who would ultimately lead the country. The junta rewrote the country’s Constitution in 2017 so that selecting the prime minister would come down to a joint vote between the 250-member military-appointed Senate and the popularly elected House of Representatives. The decision could take weeks or months.Because both Pheu Thai and Move Forward do not have enough seats to form a majority, they will need to negotiate with each other and other parties to establish a coalition. Analysts said Move Forward’s stance on changing the royal protection law might complicate negotiations for forming a coalition. Before the vote, Move Forward attempted to moderate its position on the measure, toning down its calls for reform.Pheu Thai Party’s prime ministerial candidates Paetongtarn Shinawatra, center, and Srettha Thavisin, third from left, in Bangkok on Sunday night.Manan Vatsyayana/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesBut on Sunday, Pita Limjaroenrat, the leader of Move Forward made it clear that the amendment was still high on his party’s agenda, saying they now have enough members of Parliament to push it forward.“So it’s not conditional, it’s already absolute that we are going with it,” he said.Mr. Pita, 42, a former businessman, was fielded as Move Forward’s leader after the country’s Constitutional Court dissolved the party’s previous iteration, the Future Forward Party, in 2020, and barred the party’s senior executives from politics for 10 years. A graduate of Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Mr. Pita is a charismatic speaker, who called on voters to create “a new history in Thai politics.”His background as a technocrat contrasts with the leading contender from Pheu Thai, which has sought to promote Ms. Paetongtarn, Mr. Thaksin’s youngest daughter.Ms. Paetongtarn, an executive in her family’s hotel management company with little political experience, was selected to run after her father said people “wanted to see a Shinawatra family representative as a force in the party.”She proved to be an effective campaigner, stumping even in the last weeks of her pregnancy. (She gave birth on May 1 and quickly returned to the campaign trail.) The strong showing for Move Forward was remarkable for a party that was thought to be too radical for the general population. Move Forward ran on a platform that included legalizing same-sex marriage and a $13 daily minimum wage.The election was cast as an existential struggle for the future of the country. Both Pheu Thai and Move Forward campaigned on pledges to return Thailand to the path of electoral democracy, calling on people to reject the “uncles” or the “Three Ps,” referring to the generals who have governed Thailand since the coup: Mr. Prayuth, Deputy Prime Minister General Prawit “Pom” Wongsuwan and Interior Minister General Anupong “Pok” Paochinda.United Thai Nation Party’s candidate Prayut Chan-O-Cha in Bangkok on Sunday.Lillian Suwanrumpha/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesMove Forward was even more emphatic in saying that it would never work with military-backed parties, a stance that drew more voters to the party. Several youths who had joined the 2020 protests campaigned as first-time candidates for Move Forward in the election.The vote underscored just how politically fragmented the nation of 72 million is now. No longer is it split between the “red shirt” pro-Thaksin protesters from the rural north and the “yellow shirt” anti-Thaksin faction made up of royalists and the urban elite. Now it is divided along generational lines.On Sunday, millions of Thais lined up in roughly 100-degree heat to cast their vote.“I really hope for change,” said Saisunee Chawasirikunthon, 48, an employee at a telecommunications company. “We have lived with the same old thing for the past eight years.”During his final rally on Friday, Mr. Prayuth, the former general, urged voters to choose continuity, playing a video that showed graffiti on the Democracy Monument in Bangkok and a young girl uploading a pornographic clip of herself because she had “freedom.”“We don’t need change that flips the country,” he said.For the past century, Thailand has swung between civilian democracy and military control, with the armed forces engineering a dozen coups within that period. On Thursday, Narongpan Jitkaewthae, Thailand’s army chief, took pains to assure the public that things would be different this time.He said that the country had learned its lessons from its past, and that “politics in a democratic system must continue,” although he added that he “cannot guarantee” that another coup would not happen. More

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      Thailand’s Election: What to Watch and What’s at Stake

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      The vote is seen as a referendum on the military, which has ruled Thailand for nine years. Results could determine the path for democracy in the country.Thai voters headed to the polls on Sunday in a hotly contested election that will determine whether Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, the general who seized power in a coup in 2014, is unseated by his rivals.An observer of Thai politics has called the election the most consequential one in his lifetime.Opinion polls show that many voters want change, backing opposition parties that have promised to restore democratic rule in Thailand and roll back some of the authoritarian policies introduced by Mr. Prayuth.There is a broad sentiment that Mr. Prayuth has done little to boost the economy after nine years in power. His harsh crackdown on pro-democracy protests in Bangkok in 2020 has also alienated many voters.Thailand’s prime minister, Prayuth Chan-ocha, center, campaigning for the United Thai Nation Party in Narathiwat on Monday.Madaree Tohlala/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images“If we end up with more or less the same kind of government that we’ve had for years, there’ll be a lot of unhappiness, a lot of grievances in Thailand,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, referring to the country’s economic stagnation.Here is what you need to know about the election.Who is the front-runner?Paetongtarn Shinawatra, of the populist Pheu Thai Party, is the current front-runner for prime minister, according to most opinion polls. The 36-year-old — known in Thailand as “Ung Ing” — is the daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra, and much of her appeal rests on her family name.Mr. Thaksin was prime minister from 2001 to 2006 and is still fondly remembered by many Thais for starting a $1 universal health care program and for distributing subsidies to farmers. Since 2001, the populist political parties he founded, including Pheu Thai, have consistently won the most votes in every election.But Mr. Thaksin, a billionaire tycoon, remains widely disliked by wealthy conservatives and the military. The army overthrew him in a coup in 2006, and Mr. Thaksin fled the country. (His sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, also met a similar fate eight years later, after her tenure as prime minister.) Mr. Thaksin, who lives mostly in Dubai, was sentenced in absentia to 12 years for corruption and abuse of power.The Pheu Thai Party’s prime minister candidate, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, greeting the media with her newborn son at a news conference at a Bangkok hospital in May.Rungroj Yongrit/EPA, via ShutterstockMs. Paetongtarn’s rise has fueled questions about whether she would bring her father back to Thailand, and many Thais are now bracing for a possible repeat of the instability that defined the two previous Shinawatra administrations.Ms. Paetongtarn, who gave birth to a baby boy on May 1 before immediately returning to the campaign trail, is also facing stiff competition from Pita Limjaroenrat, a candidate with the progressive Move Forward Party. In one recent poll, Mr. Pita emerged as the top choice for prime minister.What does the electoral process look like?The prime minister is not selected through popular vote, but by the 500-member House of Representatives and the 250-member military-appointed Senate.In 2019, the Senate backed Mr. Prayuth unanimously and is likely to align itself with a military proxy candidate again. If it votes as a bloc, an opposition politician would need to cobble together a huge majority in the lower house — at least 376 votes — to lead the country.Already, Senator Wanchai Sornsiri has said he and a group of fellow senators “definitely would not choose” Ms. Paetongtarn as prime minister. But it remains unclear whom exactly the military would choose.The vote could be split.One major surprise this election was the separation of Mr. Prayuth from his comrade-in-arms, Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan. Mr. Prayuth joined the United Thai Nation Party, which was established solely to field him as a candidate in the election. Mr. Prawit stayed with Palang Pracharath, Mr. Prayuth’s former party.Pheu Thai, the populist party of the former prime minister’s daughter, has been dogged by speculation that it could combine forces to form a coalition with the party of Mr. Prawit. He is widely considered one of the most powerful politicians in Thailand and was the previous army chief under Mr. Thaksin.Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha of Thailand, left, greeting Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan at Parliament in 2022.Sakchai Lalit/Associated PressPheu Thai has consistently denied these rumors, but many skeptical Thais say they would vote for the progressive Move Forward Party to prevent such an outcome.What are the major issues?The Move Forward Party has proposed amending a strict law that forbids defaming, insulting or threatening the king and other members of the royal family in Thailand after the authorities charged more than 200 people for violating the law during mass pro-democracy protests in Bangkok in 2020.Conviction under the law, known as Article 112, carries a minimum sentence of three years and a maximum sentence of up to 15. It is the only crime in Thailand for which a minimum jail term is imposed.Bread-and-butter issues are also at the forefront of voters’ minds. Thailand’s tourism-dependent economy was hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic, and the country reported the slowest economic growth last year among other major economies in Southeast Asia.This is why nearly every political party is relying on populist policies, such as cash handouts and subsidies, to lure voters.How does the military come into play?If history is any indicator, the military, which has dominated Thai politics for decades, is unlikely to relinquish power easily.In addition to engineering a dozen coups within a century, Thai generals rewrote the Constitution in 2017 to stack the Senate with allies and ensure that the military would have the power to determine the country’s prime minister.Even if Mr. Prayuth loses the popular vote, he could still end up with the top job, leading a minority government.“When everything is so well planned, I don’t think we can be optimistic about change after this election,” said Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political scientist at Ubon Ratchathani University.In 2020, the country’s Constitutional Court disbanded the Future Forward Party, the previous iteration of the Move Forward Party, after it unexpectedly finished third in the 2019 elections. Mr. Thaksin’s two previous political parties were also dissolved by military leaders. (Conservative officials have also threatened to disband the Move Forward Party this election.)Pita Limjaroenrat, the Move Forward Party’s candidate for prime minister, greeting his supporters at a rally in Bangkok in April.Lauren Decicca/Getty ImagesWanwichit Boonprong, a political scientist at Rangsit University, said parties have to be wary of the junta’s “stealth authoritarianism” after the election. “This will be the great challenge for the new government,” he said. “Every step will be watched, will be under scrutiny.”Muktita Suhartono More