Why 2026 Midterm Polls Underestimated Democratic Support
Democratic gains were expected, but surveys almost uniformly underestimated how well the left would do. Many pollsters seem to have made similar mistakes. More
Paxton, Ken
Subterms
Latest story
More stories
- in Elections
Justice Department Intervenes in Planned Parenthood Lawsuit in Texas
The Justice Department’s intervention in the Texas lawsuit could signal that the administration is ready to challenge newly elected Democrats in state offices. More
- in Elections
How ‘Talafreako’ Became a Selling Point
Insult politics are out. Ken Paxton’s attacks on James Talarico were “digging his political grave,” the columnist David French argues. In a recent live episode of “The Opinions,” French describes how some conservative evangelicals in Texas privately told him they planned to vote for Talarico — and why Republican attacks weren’t resonating with voters. More
- in Elections
Inside Team Trump’s Historic Collapse in the 2026 Midterm Elections
How an unpopular president and an unpopular war provided an opening for Democrats to make sweeping gains in the midterms. More
- in Elections
These Republicans Bet Big on Trump. It Didn’t Pay Off.
The president’s approval was essential to winning Republican Senate primaries. It became lethal in competitive general-election races. More
- in Elections
Democrats Show Strength in Final Days of Race for the Senate, New Polls Find
Democrats are up in Michigan, Texas, Kansas, Maine and Ohio, have an edge in Alaska and are effectively tied with Republicans in Iowa, new New York Times/Siena polls found. More
- in Elections
Democrats Are Leading or Tied in 7 Battleground Governor’s Races, Polls Find
Strong performances underscore how a favorable political environment may be lifting up Democrats, new New York Times/Siena polls found. More
