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      Tuesday briefing: What you need to know ahead of US midterms

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      Tuesday briefing: What you need to know ahead of US midtermsIn today’s newsletter: As Americans vote for senators, representatives and local officials, our Washington DC bureau chief explains why this contest is so important and how the balance of power might shift

      Sign up here for our daily newsletter, First Edition
      Good morning.Today the midterm elections are being held across America. Ballots will be cast for senators, representatives and local officials in one of the most important contests in recent years. It has become tiresome to describe every American election as uniquely significant, but there is a lot at stake with these midterms as the chasm between Democrats and Republicans grows ever wider, and the supreme court decision to no longer protect abortion rights hangs in the air.Despite a slim majority in Congress, Joe Biden and the Democrats have spent the past two years pushing through new laws on gun control, the climate crisis, child poverty and infrastructure – much more than many thought possible. But any change in the balance of power will bring that momentum to a grinding halt.And for many Democrats this is not just an election about policy, it is a fight for democracy itself. Two hundred candidates are running, some of them in key seats, who believe that the last election was stolen from Donald Trump. Hearings on the January 6 insurrection have been shocking – and only two weeks ago the husband of the US House speaker Nancy Pelosi was attacked in their house. If Republicans were to enjoy a resounding success, it is far from clear they would accept any future Democratic victory in a presidential election. I spoke to David Smith, the Guardian’s Washington DC bureau chief, about why these midterms matter so much and what the results could mean for America.Five big stories
      Climate | Low-income countries will need approximately $2tn (£1.75tn) in climate funding by 2030 to help cut their emissions and cope with the effects of the climate crisis.
      Russia | Putin ally and influential Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin admitted to interfering in the US elections and has said that interfering will continue in the coming midterms.
      Politics | A senior civil servant said that Gavin Williamson subjected them to a campaign of bullying when he was defence secretary, allegedly telling them to “slit your throat” and “jump out of the window” on two separate occasions.
      Weather | The Met Office predicts severe flooding across England in February despite the country remaining in drought. The floods will be a result of La Niña, a weather phenomenon influenced by cooler temperatures in the Pacific.
      Courts | Hollie Dance – the mother of Archie Battersbee, a 12-year-old boy who sustained a catastrophic brain injury in April and died in August – wants a coroner to examine the role of exposure to TikTok videos may have played in his death. Dance believes her son was hurt by taking part in an online challenge known as the “blackout challenge”.
      In depth: ‘History suggests a good night for Republicans’Midterm elections are usually high-stakes affairs, often viewed as a referendum on the sitting president. But this year’s are particularly consequential. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs, about one-third of the Senate, and 36 state governorships, among other local positions that have a say on how votes will be counted at future elections. As things stand, the Democrats have control in Washington – from the presidency to Congress to the Senate (the Senate is currently divided 50-50 but Vice-President Kamala Harris is the tie-breaking vote). But it’s famously hard for a sitting president to maintain an advantage, even more so during a cost of living crisis.It’s conventional wisdom that Republicans will probably win the House at least, says David: “History suggests Republicans will have a good night because, on the vast majority of occasions, the party that holds the White House loses seats. And polling in recent days seems to underline that.” A win in the house would give Republicans the power to cut spending for aid to Ukraine and welfare spending. Republicans have also said they plan to disband the January 6 committee and start a slew of investigations into their Democratic opponents. There have even been calls to impeach Joe Biden, although senior Republicans have been downplaying the likelihood of that happening. A fully Republican Congress could also push for a national abortion ban – although any changes to such legislation would be vetoed by the president.If the GOP wins the senate as well, they will be able to obstruct Biden’s political agenda, as well as blocking many of his cabinet secretaries and judicial appointments.The key racesThere are a number of contests that everyone is keeping a very close eye on. Perhaps the biggest is Georgia: “The rule used to be whichever way Florida goes, so goes the nation,” says David, but “Georgia has, in many ways, replaced Florida as the pivotal state in the nation.”Georgia’s senate race is extremely important. Raphael Warnock’s win in 2021 was key to the Democrats securing control of the senate. Now Warnock faces off against Herschel Walker, a former football player who “has no discernible political experience or qualifications”, David says. Walker has been embroiled in controversy for a year as stories of his affairs, extramarital children and allegations of domestic violence came to light. Most recently, a former girlfriend asserted that he paid for for her to have an abortion, despite Walker running on a hardline anti-abortion platform.And Georgia is also where Democratic favourite (and Star Trek’s president of a United Earth), Stacey Abrams, will again try to wrestle the governership from Brian Kemp. A victory for Abrams would ensure voting and abortion rights are bolstered in the state.Other races to watch out for are Ohio, where author of Hillbilly Elegy, Trump critic turned sycophant JD Vance is running: “If Democrats win in a state that has really been trending Republican in recent years, there’ll be a lot of blame on Vance and perhaps Donald Trump for backing him,” David says.Pennsylvania, home of Joe Biden, is another crucial state with TV personality Dr Mehmet Oz running against the 6’8” tattooed lieutenant governor, John Fetterman, in the senate race. Oz secured a Trump endorsement, as did Doug Mastriano, who is running for governor of the same state. Mastriano was part of the effort to overturn the 2020 elections and appeared outside the US Capitol during January 6 riots. He could be a key part of a Trump presidential run in 2024.A divided nation“It feels as if there are two separate campaigns and conversations happening, that are operating on different planets,” David says. “In the past, at least, there was a shared set of issues, and both parties would be looking to be the best on inflation or healthcare.”Republicans have focused on inflation, specifically petrol prices, and the cost of living crisis. They have also made characteristic campaign points about crime and other culture war topics such as immigration. Conversely, Democrats have been focused on reproductive rights following the supreme court decision to overturn Roe v Wade, as well as the threats to democracy, voting rights and the climate crisis. “A lot of opinion polls are suggesting that Republicans’ issues are likely to win the day, because so often, people vote according to their pocketbook and the economy,” says David.What it means for the rest of Joe Biden’s first termJoe Biden’s presidential approval rating hovers around 40%. A poll conducted by Reuters and Ipsos found that 69% of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track, while just 18% said it was on the right track. While the Democrats have managed to recover from a summer slump in the polls, a big Republican victory could further entrench his political weakness, freeze up his administration for its final two years and lead to calls for Biden to step aside for another Democrat in the presidential race in 2024.The T wordDonald Trump has still had time to have a weirdly active role in these midterm elections, having endorsed more than 200 candidates on all levels of the political system. His senate endorsements in particular will be a litmus test for the Republican party. “In a normal world, if all of his candidates lost and they got wiped out, there could be a sense that Donald Trump really does not have the political midas touch that many believed he had,” David says. But this is not a normal world, and it’s likely that regardless of what happens, Trump will claim the victory as his own: “If they lose, he’ll say they failed to follow his advice, maybe they did not embrace the ‘big lie’ enough. Or he could just say the vote was rigged and it’s all another scam.”However, if Trump candidates do win, he will be the first to claim it was all down to him and that he has been vindicated. It has been reported that Trump plans to launch his next presidential campaign around the week of 14 November on the back of any momentum from the midterms.When will we know for the results?Even though voters will be casting their ballots today, it might be days, perhaps even weeks, before there is a clear picture of results. Republicans might seem to have a huge early lead, but that will be because – for the second election in a row – their votes will be counted and reported first in several battleground states. It’s a deliberate change made by Republican officials in some states, making it easier to cast doubt on results when the final tally differs markedly from early announcements. This is coupled with the fact that Democrats traditionally use mail-in ballots far more than Republican voters, and those ballots can take longer to tally and tend to be reported in the days after the election.There will be some idea of how the election went tomorrow morning. In the meantime, read more of the Guardian’s midterm elections coverage here.What else we’ve been reading
      There are so many parts of Rhiannon Lucy Cosslett’s latest column that will chime for parents – but for me it was the way she captures the constant change of early parenthood that really struck home, every shift gifting “a whole new phase, while mourning that which came before”. Toby Moses, head of newsletters
      Benjamin Zand spent a year inside the incel community in the UK and abroad, uncovering a world marred by desperation, loneliness and violent misogyny. Nimo
      Elle Hunt’s lovely feature, talking to the bands who had their music coopted by politicians, is perhaps best encapsulated by this quote from Friendly Fires’ response to Boris Johnson using their song as entrance music: “If we’d have intended them to use it, we’d have named the track Blue Bunch of Corrupt Wankers.” Toby
      Georgina Sturge unpacks how “bad data” infiltrated British politics and what the implications are on policy when a government relies on erroneous or partial information. “Numbers hold enormous power,” Sturge writes, “but in the end, we must remember that we govern them – not the other way round.” Nimo
      Ham in a can is back, and Stuart Heritage’s tour through the best Spam recipes from the great and good of the culinary world offers one particularly dangerous idea: Spam french fries, anyone? Toby
      SportWorld Cup 2022 | Six out of 10 people in the UK think that the World Cup should not be held in Qatar because of its criminalisation of homosexuality. The same poll found that only 43% of people think that England and Wales should take part in the World Cup.Football | Liverpool and Manchester United face tough European challenges against Real Madrid and Barcelona in the next round of Champions and Europa Leagues.Football | Rio Ferdinand is typically thoughtful on the subjects of racism and homophobia in this revealing interview with Donald McRae.The front pagesThe Guardian leads this morning with “Poor nations ‘paying twice’ for climate breakdown”. The i has “Red alert for Earth: gravest warning yet on climate change” while the Metro covers Cop27 as well with “Sunak turns on the Sharm”, geddit? The Daily Mail asks “Just what planet are they on?” – it says incredulously that campaigners want the UK to pay $1tn in climate reparations to poorer nations. Other papers show Rishi Sunak embracing Emmanuel Macron at Cop27 but it is not their lead story. “Welfare and pensions set to rise with inflation” – that’s the Times while the Daily Telegraph has “Gas deal set to ease energy crisis” and the Daily Express goes with “Rishi: I will get ‘grip’ on migrant crisis”. The Mirror’s splash is inspiring but also a bit challenging: “Brave mum’s TV dissection to educate millions” (about cancer – the “extraordinary broadcast” will take place on Channel 4). It is still on the trail of Lord Lucan as well – a puff box says “Lucan brother: he DID escape and become a Buddhist”. The top story in the Financial Times today is “Chancellor lines up stealth raid on inheritance tax to shore up finances”.Today in FocusUS midterms: is it still the economy, stupid?The Democrats have learned hard lessons over the years about what happens when election campaigns neglect the economy, so has the party been strong enough in its messaging for today’s midterm elections? Lauren Gambino reportsCartoon of the day | Steve BellThe UpsideA bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all badDuring monsoon season in south-western Bangladesh, when there is little dry land on which to grow food, farmers keep their businesses afloat – quite literally – by growing vegetables on rafts made from invasive water hyacinths. These floating gardens help ensure food security in low-lying regions, where the climate crisis has resulted in waterlogging and flooding. Photographer Mohammad Ponir Hossain, who won a Pulitzer for his images of Rohingya refugees, has captured the practice and the people behind it.Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every SundayBored at work?And finally, the Guardian’s crosswords to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
      Quick crossword
      Cryptic crossword
      TopicsRepublicansFirst EditionUS midterm elections 2022Joe BidenStacey AbramsDonald TrumpDemocratsUS politicsnewslettersReuse this content More

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      John Fetterman and the Fight for White Working-Class Voters

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      Nina Feldman and Dan Powell and Listen and follow The DailyApple Podcasts | Spotify | StitcherFor the Democrats to hold on to power in Washington, they have to do what President Biden did in Pennsylvania two years ago: Break the Republican Party’s grip on the white working-class vote, once the core of the Democratic base. In tomorrow’s midterm election, no race better encapsulates that challenge than the Pennsylvania Senate candidacy of John Fetterman.Is the plan working or is this crucial group of voters now a lost cause for the Democrats?On today’s episodeShane Goldmacher, a national political reporter for The New York Times.John Fetterman, the Democratic Senate candidate for Pennsylvania, embodies the party’s hope of winning back white working-class voters.Christopher Dolan/The Times-Tribune, via Associated PressBackground readingAmong white working-class voters in places like northeast Pennsylvania, the Democratic Party has both the furthest to fall and the most to gain.In the final days of the Pennsylvania Senate race, Mr. Fetterman has acknowledged that his recovery from a stroke remains a work in progress, leaning into the issue with a mix of humor, sarcasm and notes of empathy. There are a lot of ways to listen to The Daily. Here’s how.We aim to make transcripts available the next workday after an episode’s publication. You can find them at the top of the page.Shane Goldmacher More

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      Biden and Obama make last-ditch effort as Democrats’ mood darkens

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      Biden and Obama make last-ditch effort as Democrats’ mood darkens The president has remained outwardly optimistic about Democrats’ prospects in Tuesday’s midterm elections, but the party is now struggling as polls tightenThe lights dimmed, the music throbbed and cellphone lights danced across the arena. Then a DJ welcomed to the stage the president of the United States, Joe Biden, flanked by the former president Barack Obama and Pennsylvania’s nominees for Senate and governor. An ecstatic crowd of thousands roared to their feet.With days left until the midterm elections, the presidents were in Philadelphia to mobilize Democrats in a pivotal swing state that could determine Congress’ balance of power. But the event also had the feel of a political homecoming for Biden, joined by his former running mate in the state where he was born at the end of a volatile campaign season.Unregulated, unrestrained: era of the online political ad comes to midtermsRead more“It’s good to be home,” Biden thundered above the cheering. “It’s good to be with family.”The president has remained outwardly optimistic about his party’s prospects in Tuesday’s elections, and the Democrats’ electric reception at Temple University’s Liacouras Center on Saturday no doubt gave him even more reason for hope. But nationally, Democrats’ mood had darkened.After a summertime peak, the party in power is now struggling to overcome historical headwinds and widespread economic discontent. Public polls have tightened in recent weeks. Democrats are now on the defensive in places they thought were safe, like New York and Washington. And Biden’s low approval ratings continue to burden his party’s most vulnerable candidates, many of whom have sought to avoid the president.Not in Pennsylvania.On Saturday, Biden clasped hands with John Fetterman – the Democratic nominee for Senate locked in a narrow race that could decide control of the chamber – and Josh Shapiro, the party’s nominee for governor.Pennsylvania lies at the heart of Democrats’ efforts of staving off major losses in the House, as the president’s party traditionally does in midterm elections, and keeping their narrowest of majorities in the Senate.Biden declared the midterms “one of the most important elections in our lifetime”.Hanging in the balance, Biden charged, was the very American experiment that began in Philadelphia nearly two and a half centuries ago, now at risk of falling victim to the cynical forces seeking to undermine the nation’s system of government with lies and conspiracies. In impassioned bursts, he warned of the dangers of electing candidates who have denied the results of the 2020 election and who he says threaten the security of future ones.“This isn’t a referendum this year,” he said. “It’s a choice – a choice between two vastly different visions of America.”Making an equally dire case for the Republican party was Biden’s predecessor and political rival, Donald Trump, who addressed a crowd of thousands at an event in the Pittsburgh exurb of Latrobe.There he reprised familiar warnings of worsening crime, open borders and war on “your coal” – a jab at Biden’s comments from a day earlier pledging to shut down coal plants “all across America” that set off an unwelcome political firestorm within his own party. He also teased a long-anticipated third presidential run: “I promise you, in the very next – very, very, very short period of time, you’re going to be so happy.”Biden has said publicly he intends to run again in 2024 but has not made a formal announcement. His team have begun preparations for a possible re-election bid though his age and low approval ratings remain a concern for many Democrats.The convergence of three presidents in Pennsylvania on Saturday underscored the state’s importance as a battleground. In a potential 2024 rematch between Trump and Biden, Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes are once again likely to play a decisive role in determining the victor.Biden on Saturday reminded Pennsylvanians of that power. In 2008, the state helped elect the nation’s first Black president in 2008. In 2020, he said, Pennsylvania elected “a son from Scranton president” and helped make Trump not only a former president but a “defeated president”.Despite some fretting that Biden’s appearance in Philadelphia might do more harm than good for Democrats in tight races, Biden arrived as the native son.Though he built his political career in Delaware, Biden’s political identity is rooted in Pennsylvania. And on Saturday he proudly recalled that as a senator from Delaware he was often referred to as “Pennsylvania’s third senator”.He anchored his 2020 campaign in Philadelphia. As president, he has returned to Pennsylvania on as many as 20 occasions, including a trip to Scranton to tout his infrastructure plan at an electric trolly museum and, more recently, to deliver a primetime address in Philadelphia warning that Trump and his Republican followers “represent an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our republic”.Biden touted his home state ties to make the case for electing Fetterman to the Senate, saying: “I know Pennsylvania well and John Fetterman is Pennsylvania.”Then he turned on Fetterman’s Republican opponent, the Trump-backed celebrity doctor, Mehmet Oz, casting him as a carpetbagger from neighboring New Jersey. “Look,” he said, “I lived in Pennsylvania longer than Oz has lived in Pennsylvania – and I moved away when I was 10 years old.”Tens of millions of Americans have already cast their ballots, though polls officially close on Tuesday and it could take days – or weeks in some cases – to know the final result of an election Biden said will “shape our country for decades to come”.In the final months of the midterm cycle, Biden has largely avoided states with the most competitive contests, like Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona, even though all of them helped elevate him to the White House. Instead, it has been Obama rallying Democrats in those battlegrounds – a role reversal from 2010 when Obama was the unpopular president and Biden, then his vice-president, was the party’s in-demand surrogate.Yet Biden has kept a frenetic pace on the campaign trail in the final days. On Tuesday, he traveled to Florida, a battleground where Democrats have seen their hopes fade in recent elections cycle, before heading to New Mexico, California and Illinois, Democratic strongholds with competitive midterm contests.On Sunday, Biden returned to New York, where the race for governor has narrowed in a worrying sign for Democrats’ fortunes elsewhere, and he will headline a rally the night before the election in Maryland.In his appearances, Biden has tried to rally supporters around his administration’s policy achievements, highlighting initiatives to lower the cost of prescription drugs, boost domestic manufacturing, combat climate change and forgive student loan debt while warning that Republican control of Congress would threaten social security and Medicare.The economy and inflation consistently rank as voters’ top concern this election, along with crime, abortion and threats to democracy. Democrats have sought to blunt Republicans’ advantage on the economy and crime by arguing that their opponents would pursue an extreme agenda on issues like abortion, guns and voting rights. They have pointed to the threats posed by election deniers loyal to Trump.“You see these guys standing there with rifles, outside polling places?” Biden said on Saturday. “Come on. Where the hell do you think you are?”For Democrats to remain competitive Tuesday, their task will be to rebuild the coalition responsible for Democratic victories during the Trump era. They must recapture support from a mix of college-educated suburban voters and Republican-leaning moderates while motivating Black voters and young people to turn out in strong numbers.Should they fall short, Biden has been blunt about the challenges of governing with Republican majorities. “If we lose the House and Senate,” he said in Chicago, “it’s going to be a horrible two years.”Taking the stage last on Saturday, in a slot typically reserved for the current president, Obama said he knew all too well what Democrats stood to lose if Biden no longer had majorities in Congress.Bernie Sanders hits the campaign trail with days left before US midtermsRead more“When I was president, I got my butt whooped in midterm elections,” Obama recalled of the 2010 elections. “Midterms are no joke.”He asked the audience to imagine what it might have been like if Democrats had kept control of Congress. They might have acted on immigration reform, gun safety and the climate crisis. Had they kept the Senate in 2014, he continued, the makeup of the supreme court might look very different. The audience groaned at the thought.History didn’t have to repeat itself, Obama said. Democrats didn’t have to imagine what Biden could accomplish with another majority in Congress.“The good news is, you have an outstanding president right now in the White House,” Obama said, ticking through Biden’s legislative accomplishments.“You’ve seen what he’s accomplished with the barest of margins,” he said. “If you vote, he can do even more. But it depends on you.”TopicsUS midterm elections 2022DemocratsJoe BidenBarack ObamaPennsylvaniaUS politicsfeaturesReuse this content More

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      For Fetterman, Campaign Trail Doubles as Road to Recovery

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      After a stroke and an uneven debate against his rival, Mehmet Oz, John Fetterman is leaning into his health challenges, to cheering crowds, as he campaigns for Senate in Pennsylvania.COLLEGEVILLE, Pa. — John Fetterman was getting fired up at a campaign rally on Thursday evening, vigorously bashing his Republican opponent, Mehmet Oz, as a “fraud,” when the lingering effects of the stroke he had in May abruptly surfaced.“This is a guy that’s, that’s made millions, with scam, ah — you know, scam …” Mr. Fetterman trailed off, trying twice more for the word he would eventually land on: “artist.”“Eh — that’s another one, somebody can film that,” he continued, laughing a little and flinging his arms out to his sides, as if daring his critics to mock him. “Stroke thing. He sold miracles that I just couldn’t even pronounce even before I had a stroke.”In the final days of the extraordinary Pennsylvania Senate race, in which a stroke survivor is running against a celebrity television physician, Mr. Fetterman is proactively acknowledging that his recovery remains a work in progress, leaning into the issue with a mix of humor, sarcasm and notes of empathy for others struggling with health challenges, as he competes in one of the most consequential contests in the nation.Over the course of four events — the Thursday gathering, a Friday discussion with a Philadelphia-area congresswoman and two major Saturday rallies — Mr. Fetterman came across as high-energy and forceful at times, but uneven in crispness and fluency. He sometimes stumbled over a word, corrected himself midsentence or tacked on extraneous words. Abortion decisions belong “only between a woman and their doctor,” he said on Thursday. “Always has — should — been, and always should — will.”But all of those appearances were a far cry from Mr. Fetterman’s debate performance last month, where his strikingly halting answers alarmed Democrats in Pennsylvania and nationally as they worried about a seat that could determine control of the U.S. Senate.Mr. Fetterman in Philadelphia on Saturday night. Kriston Jae Bethel for The New York TimesMr. Fetterman reaching out to a supporter after appearing with President Biden.Kriston Jae Bethel for The New York TimesAt his events, it was evident that Mr. Fetterman has fiercely devoted fans who know his biography, revel in his social media swipes at Dr. Oz and are eager to shout encouragement at any mention of the stroke. The gatherings sometimes had the feel of a movement campaign, but the question is how big that movement is, in a sharply divided state and at a challenging time for Democrats across the country.Mr. Fetterman often sounded clear and relaxed during a Friday conversation with Representative Mary Gay Scanlon at a senior center in Delaware County, the day after he received a prized endorsement from Oprah Winfrey, who was instrumental in Dr. Oz’s rise to fame. He engaged in exchanges over issues like the infrastructure package as he used a closed captioning system, which was barely detectable to the audience.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsElection Day is Tuesday, Nov. 8.House Democrats: Several moderates elected in 2018 in conservative-leaning districts are at risk of being swept out. That could cost the Democrats their House majority.A Key Constituency: A caricature of the suburban female voter looms large in American politics. But in battleground regions, many voters don’t fit the stereotype.Crime: In the final stretch of the campaigns, politicians are vowing to crack down on crime. But the offices they are running for generally have little power to make a difference.Abortion: The fall of Roe v. Wade seemed to offer Democrats a way of energizing voters and holding ground. Now, many worry that focusing on abortion won’t be enough to carry them to victory.“Have people heard that I’ve had a stroke?” he asked wryly near the beginning of that appearance. “I thought I was always pretty empathetic before, but after that, it’s really deepened just how critical it is to make sure that there needs to be things like captioning, which I’m using now — right now.” He mentioned that such accommodations allowed more people to “fully participate.”And at rallies in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia on Saturday, he cracked self-deprecating jokes about the challenge of being a stroke survivor who had to speak before former President Barack Obama, widely regarded as the Democratic Party’s most powerful surrogate.At his Thursday rally in Collegeville, Pa., a suburb of Philadelphia, he had several noticeable verbal missteps, sounding choppy as he discussed abortion rights or dealings with China.But in tone and delivery, he often came across as vigorous and seemed to be enjoying himself during his roughly 18-minute performance that included riffs about sports — the Eagles and the Phillies were both playing that night. He was cheered on by a crowd that, by the end, was treating seemingly every other sentence as an applause line.The crowd in Collegeville, Pa., on Thursday listening to Mr. Fetterman’s speech.Ruth Fremson/The New York TimesWhen he mentioned his time as mayor “of a community out in western Pennsylvania,” one attendee shouted out, “Braddock!” Mr. Fetterman previously served as mayor of Braddock, Pa., where he attracted attention for his efforts to revitalize a struggling steel town.And as he ridiculed Dr. Oz over his real estate, he was cheered on by calls of “Yes, sir!” and “Crudité!”Earlier this year, a video of Dr. Oz shopping for, as he put it, “crudité,” became a subject of significant mockery as Mr. Fetterman’s campaign tried to use it to illustrate that the Republican was out of touch.A Marist poll conducted after the debate found Mr. Fetterman with a lead of six percentage points over Dr. Oz among registered voters and among those who said they definitely planned to vote. But an Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of Pennsylvania voters, also conducted after the debate, found Dr. Oz with a narrow lead, but within the poll’s margin of error. Many party strategists on both sides of the aisle regard the race as very close.While questions about Mr. Fetterman’s health have been a significant theme of the race, crime, the economy and Dr. Oz’s biography have been equally or, in some cases, more dominant. Mr. Fetterman has been pummeled with attacks on his criminal justice record as Republicans have zeroed in on his tenure as chair of the state’s Board of Pardons, and Democrats face a difficult national environment amid high inflation and President Biden’s weak approval numbers.But polls also show warning signs for Dr. Oz, whose time as a TV doctor and ties to the state have repeatedly come under scrutiny. A Monmouth University poll released Wednesday found that 55 percent of Pennsylvanians surveyed thought he had little understanding of the concerns of voters like them. A Fox News poll showed that 44 percent of voters worried that Dr. Oz, whose longtime principal residence was in New Jersey, was not familiar enough with Pennsylvania to carry out the job of senator.At this point in the race, with few undecided voters left, “it comes down to the intangibles, the character attributes of the candidates themselves,” said Robert Blizzard, a Republican pollster.“What’s the more damning hit?” he said. “Is it Fetterman’s health and not being able to serve or ‘Oz is from Jersey’?”Mr. Fetterman with his wife, Gisele Barreto Fetterman, in Pittsburgh on Saturday.Ruth Fremson/The New York TimesMr. Fetterman had a stroke on the Friday before the May primary election, though he waited until Sunday to disclose it. On Primary Day, he had a pacemaker and defibrillator implanted, which his campaign described at the time as a standard procedure that would help address “the underlying cause of his stroke, atrial fibrillation.” The statement prompted questioning from doctors. His campaign offered few other details about his condition in the days that followed.In a statement in early June, his cardiologist said that he also had a serious heart condition called cardiomyopathy, but that “if he takes his medications, eats healthy, and exercises, he’ll be fine.”And last month, Mr. Fetterman released a letter from his primary care doctor saying that “he has no work restrictions and can work full duty in public office,” and that he “spoke intelligently without cognitive deficits.”“His speech was normal, and he continues to exhibit symptoms of an auditory processing disorder, which can come across as hearing difficulty,” said the letter from Dr. Clifford Chen, the primary care physician. “Occasional words he will ‘miss,’ which seems like he doesn’t hear the word, but it is actually not processed properly.”Dr. Chen has donated to Mr. Fetterman’s campaign and to other Democrats, The Associated Press has noted.The issue of auditory processing was evident on Thursday night as Mr. Fetterman worked the rope line after his event in suburban Philadelphia, shaking hands and posing for pictures but not stopping for long conversations over blaring music. The campaign has acknowledged that auditory processing is especially challenging for Mr. Fetterman in that setting.One man, who declined to share his name on the record for fear of losing his job, came up to Mr. Fetterman in tears. The man, 42, showed Mr. Fetterman what he said was his pardon letter for a marijuana conviction. The candidate, who as lieutenant governor is the chairman of the Board of Pardons, glanced at the document briefly and appeared to thank the man, but they did not have an extended exchange.“I just told him,” the man said afterward, still crying, “thank you for my freedom.”In the final days of the campaign, both candidates are competing hard in the Pennsylvania suburbs, with dueling appearances in Bucks County on Sunday.Dr. Oz campaigned with Senator Susan Collins of Maine and Representative Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, two lawmakers regarded as more moderate Republicans, and his final pre-election rally on Monday is in suburban Montgomery County. He is walking a difficult line, though: He also appeared with former President Donald J. Trump and State Senator Doug Mastriano, the far-right nominee for governor who is anathema to many centrist suburban voters, at a rally on Saturday.Mr. Fetterman with Representative Mary Gay Scanlon in Upper Darby, Pa., on Friday.Ruth Fremson/The New York TimesMr. Fetterman, for his part, appeared on “The View” on Friday, which may have reached suburban women in particular, his team said. He campaigned with state Attorney General Josh Shapiro, the Democratic nominee for governor, in Bucks County on Sunday afternoon.And his advisers and allies were elated by the endorsement from Ms. Winfrey, which was heavily covered on the local news.“This week was ‘Fetterman Strikes Back,’” said Joe Calvello, a spokesman for Mr. Fetterman. He also noted the letter the candidate released from his doctor, and that Mr. Fetterman was “doing a recovery in public, in the public eye.”On the campaign trail, Mr. Fetterman has a habit of narrating what that process entails.“Sometimes I miss words, sometimes I might mush two words together,” Mr. Fetterman said on Thursday, to shouts of “We don’t care!”“This,” he said at another point, “is what recovery looks like.” More

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      Democrats, Don’t Despair. There Are Bright Spots for Our Party.

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      The Democratic Party and Senator Mitch McConnell rarely see eye to eye on anything. But if Democrats hold the line in the elections on Tuesday and keep control of the Senate — and we still have a shot — it will come down to candidate quality.That’s the phrase that Mr. McConnell used this past summer alluding to his Republican Senate nominees.Going into Tuesday’s vote, Democrats face fierce headwinds like inflation and the typical pattern of losses in midterm elections for the party in power. But unlike some Republican candidates — a real-life island of misfit toys — many Democratic Senate candidates have been a source of comfort: the likable, pragmatic, low-drama Mark Kelly in Arizona and Raphael Warnock in Georgia, the heterodox populists John Fetterman (Pennsylvania) and Tim Ryan (Ohio). If the party can defy the odds and hold the Senate, there will be valuable lessons to take away.For many election analysts, the hopes of the summer —  that the Dobbs decision overturning Roe could help Democrats buck historical trends — look increasingly like a blue mirage, and Republicans seem likely to surf their way to a majority in the House.Yet the battle for the Senate is still raging, and largely on the strength of Mr. Kelly, Mr. Warnock, Mr. Ryan and Mr. Fetterman. Their races also offer insights that can help Democrats mitigate losses in the future and even undo some of the reputational damage that has rendered the party’s candidates unelectable in far too many places across the country.In a normal midterm year, Mr. Warnock and Mr. Kelly would be the low-hanging fruit of vulnerable Democrats, given that they eked out victories in 2020 and 2021 in purple states.But they bring to the table compelling biographies that resist caricature. Mr. Kelly is a former Navy combat pilot and astronaut whose parents were both cops. Mr. Warnock, the senior pastor at Atlanta’s Ebenezer Baptist Church, quotes Scripture on the campaign trail and compares the act of voting to prayer.They’ve rejected the hair-on-fire, hyperpartisan campaign ads that endangered incumbents often rely on. Mr. Kelly’s ads highlight his bipartisanship and willingness to break with the Democratic Party on issues like border security — he supports, for example, filling in gaps in the wall on the border with Mexico.Mr. Warnock, too, has focused on local issues: His campaign has highlighted his efforts to secure funding for the Port of Savannah and his bipartisan work with Tommy Tuberville of Alabama to help Georgia’s peanut farmers. These ads will probably not go viral on Twitter, but they signal that Mr. Kelly and Mr. Warnock will fight harder for the folks at home than they will for the national Democratic agenda.In Ohio and Pennsylvania, Mr. Ryan and Mr. Fetterman have showed up in every county, red or blue, in their states. Democrats can’t just depend on driving up the margins in Democratic strongholds — they also need to drive down Republicans’ margins in their strongholds.Mr. Fetterman is holding to a slim lead in polls. Most analysts doubt Mr. Ryan can prevail in what is a tougher electoral environment for a Democrat, but even if he loses, he helped his peers by keeping his race competitive, and he did it without a dollar of help from the national party. He forced national Republicans to spend about $30 million in Ohio that could otherwise have gone to Senate races in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania.Anything could happen on Tuesday. Politics, like football, is a game of inches. It’s still possible that Democrats could pick up a seat or two. It’s also plausible that Republicans could take seats in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and even New Hampshire.But when the dust settles on the election, Democrats need to do some real soul-searching about the future of our party. We look likely to lose in some places where Joe Biden won in 2020. And what’s worse, we could lose to candidates who have embraced bans on abortion and conspiracy theories about the 2020 election, views shared by a minority of the American people. This outcome tells us as much about the Democratic brand as it does the Republican Party.Fair or not, Democrats have been painted as the party of out-of-touch, coastal elites — the party that tells voters worried about crime that it’s all in their heads and that, by the way, crime was higher in the 1990s; the party that sneers at voters disillusioned with bad trade deals and globalization and that labels their “economic anxiety” a convenient excuse for racism; the party that discounts shifts of Black and Hispanic voters toward the Republican Party as either outliers or a sign of internalized white supremacy.If Democrats are smart, they’ll take away an important lesson from this election: There is no one way, no right way to be a Democrat. To win or be competitive in tough years in places as varied as Arizona, Georgia, Ohio and Pennsylvania, we need to recruit and give support to the candidates who might not check the box of every national progressive litmus test but who do connect with the voters in their state.Mr. Fetterman and Mr. Ryan offer good examples. Both have been competitive in part because they broke with progressive orthodoxy on issues like fracking (in Pennsylvania, Mr. Fetterman was called the “enemy” by an environmentalist infuriated by his enthusiastic support for fracking and the jobs it creates) and trade deals (in Ohio, Mr. Ryan has bragged about how he “voted with Trump on trade”).It also means lifting up more candidates with nontraditional résumés who defy political stereotypes and can’t be ridiculed as down-the-line partisans: veterans, nurses, law enforcement officers and entrepreneurs and executives from the private sector.In some states, the best candidates will be economic populists who play down social issues. In others, it will be economic moderates who play up their progressive social views. And in a lot of swing states, it will be candidates who just play it down the middle all around.It might also mean engaging with unfriendly media outlets. Most Democrats have turned up their noses at Fox News even though it is the highest-rated cable news channel, but Mr. Ryan has made appearances and even put on air a highlight reel of conservative hosts like Tucker Carlson praising him as a voice of moderation and reason in the Democratic Party. In the frenzied final days of the campaign, Mr. Fetterman wrote an opinion essay for FoxNews.com.This year we still might avoid losing the Senate. And Democrats can avoid catastrophe in future elections. It all comes down to two words: “candidate quality.”Lis Smith (@Lis_Smith), a Democratic communications strategist, was a senior adviser to Pete Buttigieg’s presidential campaign and is the author of the memoir “Any Given Tuesday: A Political Love Story.”The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      in US Politics

      ‘Sulking and moping is not an option’: Obama campaigns with Biden ahead of US midterms

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      ‘Sulking and moping is not an option’: Obama campaigns with Biden ahead of US midtermsDemocrats roll out political heavyweights to deliver closing arguments, warning that democracy itself is at risk

      Explainer: Why the US midterms matter – from abortion rights to democracy
      The Democratic party’s most powerful voices warned that abortion, social security and democracy itself are at risk as they laboured to overcome fierce political headwinds over the final weekend of the 2022 midterm elections.“Sulking and moping is not an option,” former president Barack Obama told several hundred voters in Pittsburgh on Saturday. “On Tuesday, let’s make sure our country doesn’t get set back 50 years.”Republicans appear better positioned than ever ahead of midtermsRead moreLater in the day, President Biden shared the stage with Obama in Philadelphia, the former running mates campaigning together for the first time since Biden took office. In neighbouring New York, former president Bill Clinton – largely absent from national politics in recent years – was also out defending his party.Before arriving in Pennsylvania, Biden was dealing with a fresh political storm after upsetting some in his party for promoting plans to shut down fossil fuel plants in favour of green energy. While he made the comments in California the day before, the fossil fuel industry is a major employer in Pennsylvania.Senator Joe Manchin, a Democrat from West Virginia and chair of the Senate energy and natural resources committee, said the president owed coal workers across the country an apology. He called Biden’s comments “offensive and disgusting”.Former president Donald Trump was also campaigning on Saturday, finishing the day at a rally in south-western Pennsylvania where he claimed Biden had “resumed the war on coal – your coal”.The White House said Biden’s words were “twisted to suggest a meaning that was not intended – he regrets it if anyone hearing these remarks took offence”. He was “commenting on a fact of economics and technology”.Biden, Trump, Obama and Clinton – four of the six living presidents – focused on north-eastern battlegrounds on Saturday, as the parties sent out their biggest names to deliver a critical closing argument. Polls across America will close on Tuesday, but more than 36 million people have already voted.Democrats are deeply concerned about losing their narrow majorities in the House and Senate, amid surging inflation and widespread economic concerns. History suggests that Democrats, as the party in power, will suffer significant losses in the midterms.US midterms 2022: the key racesRead moreThe attention on Pennsylvania underscores the stakes in 2022 and beyond for the tightly contested state. The Senate race could decide the overall Senate majority, and with it, Biden’s agenda and judicial appointments for the next two years. The governor’s contest will determine the direction of state policy and control of the state’s election infrastructure heading into the 2024 presidential contest.Biden’s speech in Pennsylvania ran through a grab bag of major legislative achievements, while warning that abortion rights, voting rights, social security and Medicare are at risk should Republicans take control of Congress this week.The president highlighted the Inflation Reduction Action, passed in August by the Democratic-led Congress, which includes several health care provisions popular among older adults.TopicsUS midterm elections 2022US politicsBarack ObamaJoe BidenPennsylvaniaDonald TrumpBill ClintonReuse this content More

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      in Elections

      Pensylvania Democrats Worry About Threats in the County Where Trump Will Rally

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      Democratic officials in Westmoreland County, Pa., where former President Donald J. Trump is speaking on Saturday, said they had seen an uptick in disturbing incidents targeting Democrats in the past year.Westmoreland County, the populous area east of Pittsburgh, was once a Democratic-leaning enclave, but it has turned decisively red in recent years.“We are targets here,” Michelle McFall, the chairwoman of the county Democrats, said at a rally of supporters in October. She cited three incidents:In late summer, someone “tore down and destroyed” a 4-foot-by-8-foot sign for Josh Shapiro, the Democratic candidate for governor, within a day of its installation.In September, a man in a rainbow clown wig was arrested at a Dairy Queen in the county carrying a loaded handgun. He told police he wanted to “kill all Democrats,’’ according to news accounts.And on Election Day in 2021, a Democratic county committee member speaking in support of a write-in candidate outside a polling location in Alverton was attacked by a Trump supporter, who was charged with assault.To Ms. McFall, the episodes suggest a pattern of “how dangerous it is” to be a Democrat in Westmoreland County.But to Bill Bretz, the chairman of the county Republican Party, the incidents are unrelated and do not point to a pattern of violence or potential violence against Democrats.“I can’t count the number of signs we’ve had to replace — small, large, they get damaged or stolen,” Mr. Bretz said. “I don’t attribute that to any particular party.”He said Democrats were trying to deflect from their political difficulties in the midterms by promoting a “narrative of somehow being in a position where there’s some aggression from the Republican conservative people.”Lisa Gephart, the Democratic committee member who Ms. McFall said was physically attacked last year, said in an interview that she was 54 at the time and that her assailant was 34.She said the two had traded insults about President Biden and Mr. Trump before the man threw her against her car. She was taken by ambulance to the hospital and later required shoulder surgery, she said. The man she named as her attacker, Zachary A. Lambing, was charged with assault, resisting arrest, disorderly conduct and harassment, according to court records. A criminal case remains active. Mr. Lambing said in response to a text message that the accusations against him were false. He said Ms. Gephart was “‘attacking’ me with her words” before the incident. Ms. McFall, the Democratic chairwoman, said that while she had no evidence of a statewide pattern of attacks on Democrats, she had recently compared notes with leaders of other rural counties at a statewide Democratic meeting. “Anecdotally, no one seemed to have stories or evidence of patterns of attack like we have in Westmoreland,” Ms. McFall said.Meanwhile, in Fayette County, just south of Westmoreland, a Democratic candidate running for a state House seat, Richard Ringer, told PennLive.com that he was knocked unconscious in his backyard on Monday by an unknown attacker. He told the outlet that his home had been the target of two recent acts of vandalism: A brick was thrown through a window, and graffiti that appeared to be related to the election was spray-painted on his garage door. More

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      in Elections

      At Fetterman Rally, Obama Mocks Oz and Tells Crowd to Vote for Democracy

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      PITTSBURGH — Former President Barack Obama, campaigning for the first time with Lt. Gov. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, urged Democratic supporters on Saturday to vote to save democracy and abortion rights. Mr. Obama also mocked Dr. Mehmet Oz, the Republican in the Senate race, as a television pitchman with no interest in helping working people.Dr. Oz had “answers,” Mr. Obama said, referencing the candidate’s years as host of a TV show that sometimes promoted dubious health advice. But, he added, those answers were the wrong ones.“You want to lose weight? Take raspberry ketones,’’ Mr. Obama said. “If somebody is willing to peddle snake oil to make a buck, then he’s probably willing to sell snake oil to get elected.”The rally was held in a park in the shadow of the University of Pittsburgh’s 42-story Cathedral of Learning, a popular last stop on the campaign trail for Democrats seeking to rally young voters before Election Day. The crowd, numbering more than 1,000, seemed to pulse with affection for the former president, who spoke for about 35 minutes.Mr. Fetterman spoke for about 10 minutes, his speech still halting since a stroke in May, and noted that Dr. Oz would appear later in the day with former President Donald J. Trump in the Pittsburgh exurbs. Mr. Fetterman said he was proud to share a stage with a former president who was “sedition-free.”Ruth Fremson/The New York TimesRuth Fremson/The New York TimesIn his speech, Mr. Obama outlined the differences between electing Democrats or Republicans on Tuesday. It was a choice, he said, “between politicians who seem willing to say and do anything to get power, and people who see you and know you and care about you and share your values.”Mr. Obama laced his speech with examples of how civility, adherence to truth and respect for the political opposition had eroded since he ran for office. He attributed that deterioration to Republicans during Mr. Trump’s presidency.Mr. Obama blamed social media that “amped up” conspiracy theories and hatred, warning of the potential for political violence. Mentioning the attack on Paul Pelosi, the husband of Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Mr. Obama decried people “in leadership positions” who, after such an attack, “make light of it, they joke about it.”“More people are going to get hurt,” he said.He also called out “big celebrities” who have reposted “vile antisemitic conspiracy theories online,” an apparent reference to the basketball star Kyrie Irving and the rapper Kanye West.“You don’t have to be a student of history to understand how dangerous that is,’’ Mr. Obama said.Later on Saturday, Mr. Fetterman, Mr. Obama and President Biden are scheduled to rally in Philadelphia, capping a day in which they could reach nearly a quarter of Pennsylvania’s active Democratic voters. More