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      Will the African National Congress Buy President Cyril Ramaphosa’s Alibi?

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      A bizarre scandal threatens to topple President Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa from leadership of the African National Congress, which begins its party conference on Friday. Will A.N.C. members buy his astonishing account?JOHANNESBURG — The story begins when a Sudanese businessman landed in the Johannesburg airport two days before Christmas 2019, according to his account, rolling a carry-on suitcase with $600,000 in cash. He said he had wanted to surprise his South African wife for her birthday, and buy a house.Instead, according to Cyril Ramaphosa, the president of South Africa, that cash somehow ended up stashed inside a sofa in the private residence of his game farm.This convoluted story — and whether it is at all credible — is the subject of a scandal that has riveted South Africa and threatened to unseat Mr. Ramaphosa from the presidency. On Friday, his party, the African National Congress, convenes its national conference, held every five years, where some 4,000 delegates will decide whether to elect Mr. Ramaphosa to a second term as their leader. Given the A.N.C.’s dominance of South African politics, the person elected party president has always become South Africa’s president.A protégé of Nelson Mandela, Mr. Ramaphosa, 70, rose to power five years ago carrying hopes that he could save the A.N.C., a once-vaunted liberation movement now facing a reckoning over rampant corruption and a failure to provide basic services.The president’s game farm, Phala Phala Wildlife, where a Sudanese businessman said that, practically on a whim, he bought 20 buffaloes for $580,000. Joao Silva/The New York TimesHis rhetoric about good governance and record as a businessman gave South Africans hope that he would clean house and help the A.N.C. focus on rescuing Africa’s most industrialized economy.But now, much of the country — including opposition lawmakers, political analysts and even some of the president’s allies — can’t help but wonder whether he simply represents the same old corruption of the ruling elite.“Unfortunately, now he’s got that cloud hanging over his head,” said Lindiwe Zulu, a senior A.N.C. official and member of the president’s cabinet who has been supportive of him. Referring to the scandal, she said, “People are going to be asking a question: ‘How on earth do you have something like that being a president?’”The scandal known as Farmgate erupted in June, after Arthur Fraser, South Africa’s former spy chief and a political opponent of Mr. Ramaphosa, filed a criminal complaint accusing him of failing to report to the police the theft of at least $4 million from the president’s farm.What to Know About Cyril Ramaphosa and ‘Farmgate’Card 1 of 3Who is Cyril Ramaphosa? More

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      Protesters in Peru Demand Justice for Ousted President Pedro Castillo

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      Eight days after Pedro Castillo’s removal from office and arrest, thousands of his supporters have joined protests demanding his reinstatement. To them, he is the voice of the marginalized.LIMA, Peru — Outside a detention center at the foot of the Andes Mountains, a camp has formed in recent days, with as many as 1,000 people traveling hundreds of miles to demand freedom for the highest-profile detainee: their former president, Pedro Castillo.They will stay until he is reinstated, said one supporter, Milagros Rodriguez, 37, or until “civil war begins.”Mr. Castillo, a former schoolteacher and union activist who promised to fight for the poor, is the man at the center of Peru’s dizzying political drama, having been removed from office last week after he tried to dissolve Congress and create a government that would rule by decree. Within hours he was under arrest, accused of rebellion, and his vice president was sworn into office.Now, Dina Boluarte is the sixth president in five years in a country reeling from a long history of high-level scandals and deep divisions between its rural poor and urban elite.During a virtual court hearing televised live on Thursday, a judge ordered Mr. Castillo be kept in pretrial detention for 18 months while his case proceeds. Mr. Castillo refused to appear at the hearing.What started out as a relatively peaceful transfer of power has quickly erupted into widespread violence that has left at least 16 dead, many of them teenagers, and led to attacks against police stations, courthouses, factories, airports and a military base.Protesters outside the detention center on Thursday.Marco Garro for The New York TimesAt least 197 civilians and more than 200 police officers have been injured in clashes, according to the country’s ombudsman’s office, which in a statement Thursday called on security forces to “immediately cease the use of firearms and tear gas bombs dropped from helicopters.”The government has responded to the unrest by imposing a national state of emergency, suspending the guarantee of many civil liberties, including the freedom of assembly. In an effort to quell the unrest, the new president has called for early elections, for as soon as December 2023, a move that Congress is debating.Ms. Boluarte, a former ally of Mr. Castillo, has found herself increasingly at odds with the rural Peruvians who voted the two of them into office last year. On Thursday, her government expanded the state of emergency, imposing a curfew in 15 provinces.What to Know About the Ousting of Peru’s PresidentCard 1 of 4Who is Pedro Castillo? More

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      Your Thursday Briefing: China’s Snarled Covid Data

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      Plus France just beat Morocco to advance to the World Cup finals.“The statistics are meaningless,” an expert said.Aly Song/ReutersChina’s ‘meaningless’ Covid dataDespite repeated assurances that the country’s rollback of restrictions is under control, China has no clear picture of its Covid-19 infections.Even the most basic question of how many people are infected is hard to answer: China has relaxed mass testing requirements and made reporting at-home test results voluntary. Yesterday, the government said it would stop reporting asymptomatic infections, which made up most of the positive test results in the past.The country’s official data around Covid may be hazy, but there’s strong anecdotal evidence of a surging number of cases. Hospitals, too, are crowded.The lack of reliable information could have major economic implications. Foreign businesses and investors don’t know how long it will take for China’s economy to recover. And shoppers are still hesitant to re-enter stores and restaurants after years of enforced lockdowns.From Opinion: Abandoning “zero Covid” is a chance for President Xi Jinping to pivot from the perils of one-man rule, Minxin Pei argues.Other China news: Beijing will withdraw six diplomats from the U.K. following a British police inquiry into a violent clash at a demonstration at the Chinese Consulate in Manchester.Morocco supporters celebrated in Paris when the team beat Portugal to reach the semifinals.Christophe Petit Tesson/EPA, via ShutterstockFrance beats Morocco, 2-0France beat Morocco just minutes before we sent out this newsletter. The team will play Argentina on Sunday in the World Cup final.The first half of the game ended with France in the lead, 1-0. Morocco held firm, avoiding a complete disaster. Its magical run has elated fans: It was the first Arab or African team to reach the semifinals. France surged in the second half, when it scored another goal.Understand the Situation in ChinaBeijing’s restrictive “zero Covid” policy pummeled China’s economy and set off mass protests that were a rare challenge to the Communist leadership.A Messy Pivot: The Communist Party cast aside many Covid rules after the protests, while playing down the threat of the virus. The move could prove dangerous.In Beijing: As a wave of Covid sweeps across the Chinese capital, Beijing looks like a city in the throes of a lockdown — this time, self-imposed by residents.Importance of Vaccines: As the government drops its restrictions, it not only needs to convince people that the virus is nothing to fear, but also that inoculations are essential.Fearing a Grim Future: Even as China eases its Covid rules, the outlook for many young people remains gloomy, with few job prospects and high unemployment rates.The match was always about more than sports. France ran a protectorate in Morocco from 1912 to 1956, when Morocco gained independence. Many Moroccans in France still face racism and other forms of discrimination, and diplomatic ties remain complex.Now, despite its loss, Morocco has become the champion of the world’s colonized against the world’s colonizers­. Details: Morocco’s team had the most nonnative-born players in the World Cup. Fourteen grew up in Europe yet chose to play for Morocco. Some said they made the choice because of the bigotry they had faced in Europe.From Opinion:Before Morocco’s loss, Issandr El Amrani said he hadn’t seen such optimism in the Arab world since the 2011 uprisings.France’s team, full of players with roots in the former colonies, offers hope for the country’s future, Laurent Dubois writes.Fiji’s vote count is expected to take two days.Saeed Khan/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesFiji’s closely watched electionFijians voted in a general election yesterday. The outcome could have major regional implications: The island nation has recently taken on outsize importance in the battle for Pacific influence between the U.S. and China.Under Josaia Voreqe Bainimarama, the prime minister, Fiji has grown closer to China. His challenger, Sitiveni Rabuka, recently indicated that he would prefer closer ties to Australia, a longtime ally of Fiji that is also trying to strengthen its influence in the Pacific.The contest could become volatile. Both men have been involved in coups: Bainimarama led Fiji’s last one, in 2006; Rabuka its first, in 1987. It remains unclear if Bainimarama would honor the results, were he to lose. Experts said that he could seek the help of Fiji’s military, which is constitutionally permitted to intervene if it sees fit.Analysis: Turnout was low. “With the two likely contenders for prime minister being former coup leaders, it may be that people think, ‘Is it really democracy?’” an expert said.In other Pacific news: Australia signed a new security deal with Vanuatu, The Associated Press reports.THE LATEST NEWSAsia PacificNew Zealand enacted a lifetime prohibition on cigarette sales to everyone born after 2008.Jason Oxenham/Getty ImagesNew Zealand’s new laws are aimed at eliminating most smoking by 2025, following more than a decade of public health campaigns.The Australian police are investigating the potential influence of far-right extremism in a Queensland shooting, The Sydney Morning Herald reports.The U.S. created a space force unit in South Korea, The Associated Press reports. It is likely to be used to monitor the North.The Group of 7 countries will give Vietnam $15.5 billion to help it shift toward renewable energy, Asia Financial reports.The War in UkraineMarco Hernandez and Josh Holder/The New York Times; Planet LabsRussia is building a vast network of trenches and traps in an effort to slow Ukraine’s advance.The U.S. is poised to send Ukraine the Patriot, its most advanced ground-based air defense system.Paul Whelan, an American detained in Russia, has no clear path to release.Around the WorldPeru said it would declare a state of emergency. Violent protests are raging days after its president was ousted.Iran was ousted from the U.N. Women’s Rights Agency as protests continue.President Biden vowed to expand the U.S.’s involvement in Africa yesterday in a speech to nearly 50 heads of state.Floods killed at least 141 people in the Democratic Republic of Congo.Other Big StoriesElon Musk stopped paying rent on Twitter’s offices and disbanded a trust and safety council to cut costs.Biden signed a bipartisan bill protecting same-sex marriages in the U.S.A U.S. prosecutor described Sam Bankman-Fried’s dealings at FTX as “one of the biggest financial frauds in American history.” DealBook explains.Brain implants have begun to restore bodily functions. But significant advances are probably decades away.OpinionsIsrael is about to have an extreme right-wing government. Palestinians will pay the price, Diana Buttu writes.Lev Golinkin asks: Why do Harvard, Stanford and NASA still honor Alfried Krupp, a Nazi war criminal?Conservation campaigns centered around individual species known as “spectacles of extinction” can distract from the larger biodiversity crisis, Michelle Nijhuis argues.A Morning ReadGomi, left, and Songkang are white Pungsans, a breed indigenous to North Korea.Chun Jung-in/Yonhap, via Associated PressIn 2018, Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s leader, gave two dogs to South Korea, then led by Moon Jae-in, as a symbol of peace.Four years later, South Korea is in political gridlock and the period of rapprochement on the Korean Peninsula is over. And the two pups, orphaned after a heated dispute over who would pay for their care, ended up in a zoo.PROFILEA Russian artist dissentsVladimir Ovchinnikov, 84, has long painted pastoral scenes across the walls of Borovsk, his provincial hometown, near Moscow.Now, his political art is attracting attention. At a time when dissent is being crushed across Russia, Ovchinnikov has been painting murals protesting the invasion of Ukraine. His own history drove him to denounce violence and war — he did not meet his father until age 11 because his father had spent 10 years in a gulag, and his grandfather and uncle were killed by the state.His work has earned him a reputation as the “Banksy of Borovsk” — which, he said, he does not appreciate. Unlike Banksy, the mysterious street artist based in Britain, Ovchinnikov works in the open. He thinks that his age and his family history offer him a modicum of protection. Still, he has been fined, questioned and pelted with snowballs.“I draw doves, they paint over them,” he said.Banksy: Last month, the artist painted seven murals in and around Kyiv. An activist incited controversy when he removed one of Banksy’s works, saying he intended to auction it off and donate the proceeds to Ukraine’s army.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookJoel Goldberg for The New York TimesThis recipe is for a classic, unadorned latke. (Hanukkah starts on Sunday.)What to Read“The Tatami Galaxy” is a flamboyant vision of college life in Kyoto, Japan, full of obsessive subcultures.What to Watch“Blanquita” explores a sex scandal that sent waves throughout Chile in the early 2000s.Ask WellWhy do men sprout hair in weird places as they age?Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: Gold bar (five letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you next time. — AmeliaP.S. Jimmy Carter announced that the U.S. and China would establish diplomatic relations 44 years ago today. In doing so, he severed America’s link with Taiwan.“The Daily” is on abortion in the U.S.You can reach Amelia and the team at briefing@nytimes.com. More

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      Istanbul Mayor Jailed for Insulting Public Officials, Barring Him From Politics

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      The mayor of Istanbul, a possible rival to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the 2023 elections, was convicted of insulting public officials.ISTANBUL — A court in Turkey barred the mayor of Istanbul from political activity for years after convicting him on charges of insulting public officials, a ruling that could sideline a rising star in the opposition who is seen as a potential challenger to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in elections next year.The mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, runs Turkey’s largest city and economic center. He was sentenced to two years and seven months in prison but has not been arrested and will appeal the ruling, his party said. If the ruling stands, he would not go to prison because his sentence is below the threshold required for incarceration under Turkish law.But he would be removed as mayor and barred for the duration of his sentence from political activity, including voting and running for or holding public office. That could essentially destroy the near-term prospects of a leader with a proven record of winning elections against Mr. Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party, or A.K.P.Mr. Imamoglu was charged with insulting public officials, a crime under Turkish law. But his supporters see the case against him as a ruse cooked up by Mr. Erdogan and his allies to remove a contender from the political scene.“This case is proof that there is no justice left in Turkey,” Mr. Imamoglu told a demonstrators gathered outside the municipal headquarters to protest the verdict. “This case is a case run by those people who don’t want to bring Turkey the most divine values, such as justice and democracy.”Turks are looking to parliamentary and presidential elections to be held in or before next June to determine the future course of this country of 85 million, one of the world’s 20 largest economies and a member of NATO.Mr. Erdogan, as the country’s predominant politician for nearly two decades and president since 2014, has pushed Turkey toward greater authoritarianism, using his influence over broad swaths of the state to bolster his rule and undermine his rivals. He will seek to extend his tenure next year, although his standing in the polls has dived because of an economic crisis. The Turkish lira has lost much of its value against the dollar, and year-on-year inflation is more than 80 percent, according to government figures.A coalition of six opposition parties hopes to unseat Mr. Erdogan and deprive his party of its parliamentary majority next year, but they have yet to announce a presidential candidate.Mr. Imamoglu has not spoken publicly about whether he will run for president, but some recent polls have found him to be more popular than Mr. Erdogan. He also has the rare distinction of having beaten Mr. Erdogan’s party for control of Turkey’s largest city, twice in the same year.In March 2019, Mr. Imamoglu beat Mr. Erdogan’s chosen candidate in Istanbul’s municipal election, putting Turkey’s largest opposition party in charge of the city for the first time in decades. It was a stinging loss for Mr. Erdogan, not least because he had grown up in the city and made his own political name as its mayor before moving on to national politics.Alleging electoral irregularities, Mr. Erdogan’s party appealed for and were granted a rerun. Mr. Imamoglu won that too, with an even larger margin than he had the first time around.The current case against Mr. Imamoglu has its roots in his public criticism of government decisions in 2019 to remove dozens of mayors from Turkey’s Kurdish minority from their posts and replace them with state-appointed trustees.The government accused those mayors of having ties to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, a Kurdish militant group that has fought against the state and which Turkey, the United States and the European Union consider a terrorist organization. The mayors denied the charges and critics considered their ouster a subversion of the democratic process.In a speech, Turkey’s interior minister, Suleyman Soylu, called Mr. Imamoglu a “fool” for criticizing the mayors’ removal. Mr. Imamoglu responded that the “fool” was those who had annulled the original results of the Istanbul mayoral elections.Turkey’s Supreme Election Council, which oversees the country’s elections, filed a compliant against Mr. Imamoglu for insulting state officials. A state prosecutor formally charged Mr. Imamoglu last year.Critics have accused Mr. Erdogan of extending his influence over the judiciary, allowing him press for rulings that benefit him politically.In a video message posted on Twitter before the sentence was announced on Wednesday, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the head of Turkey’s largest opposition party, said that a guilty verdict would prove that Turkey’s judges were in cahoots with Mr. Erdogan.“Any decision other than an acquittal will be the confession of a plot and the palace’s orders,” he said, referring to the presidential palace. “I am warning the palace for the last time, get your hand off the judiciary.” More

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      In Fiji’s Closely Observed Election, a Former Coup Leader Is Ahead

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      In a region where China and the United States fight for influence, observers await results from the vote to choose the island nation’s prime minister — and to see if the outcome will be respected.It was a clash between two former coup leaders, set against the backdrop of a remote and palm-fringed vacation destination that has, of late, taken on outsized importance in a battle for primacy in the Pacific between the United States and China.And with the military constitutionally permitted to intervene if it saw fit, that contest was one with the potential to become extremely volatile.So, as voters went to the polls for the general election on Wednesday, focus turned to Fiji, an island nation known regionally for its stormy politics and which experienced four coups between 1987 and 2006. This was the country’s third general election since they were reintroduced to the Constitution in 2013.In preliminary results, Sitiveni Rabuka, the leader of the People’s Alliance party — who led Fiji’s first coup in 1987 — appeared to have secured a narrow victory against the strongman incumbent, Prime Minister Josaia Voreqe Bainimarama. Mr. Bainimarama, widely known by the first name Frank, himself seized power with the help of the military in 2006, before winning democratic elections in 2014 and 2018.The vote count is expected to take as long as two days, with ballots trickling in from outer islands and remote villages. The first set of results was delayed by a matter of hours, as the country’s election results app worked only intermittently. Late on Wednesday night, the release of provisional results was placed on hold as the Fijian Election Office contended with operational difficulties.But as of Wednesday night, Mr. Rabuka’s party, the People’s Alliance, had taken a convincing lead over Mr. Bainimarama’s party, Fiji First.Whether Mr. Bainimarama intends to honor the results remains unclear. Speaking to foreign reporters before the results were released, the former leader said he would “of course” respect the outcome of the election, even if they were not in his favor. He added: “Haven’t they got any intelligent reporters from Australia to come ask me a better question than that?”But experts have warned that Mr. Bainimarama may yet seek to intervene with the support of the military, with which he maintains a close relationship. The country’s Constitution gives final control over citizens’ “security, defense and well-being” to the military, a clause that is widely understood to mean that it has the right to intervene if it sees fit.Election officials preparing to open ballot boxes for counting in Suva on Wednesday.Saeed Khan/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images“It will come down to how the military leadership sees it,” said Dominic O’Sullivan, a professor of political science at Charles Sturt University in Australia. Though the head of the military had in recent days encouraged people to vote and vowed not to interfere, he added, “You can’t take that as an absolute, unbreakable commitment, because it does have the constitutional power.”Before results were counted, Mr. Rabuka suggested that Mr. Bainimarama might appeal to the court system in the event that his party was not the victor. “I’m hoping for a flood of votes in our favor,” he said, “so that if he makes any attempt at going through that system, that course, it will be futile.”Fiji, with a population of about a million people and by far the largest economy of its region, grew closer to China in 2006 after an initial burst of investment from Beijing. The funding was particularly timely as Fiji faced damaging sanctions from Australia and New Zealand related to the coup in which Mr. Bainimarama came to power.The relationship with China could enter a new, more distant phase under Mr. Rabuka, who earlier this year indicated that he would prefer closer ties to Australia, a longtime ally of Fiji, instead of signing a mooted security pact with Beijing.The early election results come after a bitter contest and amid a government clampdown on supporters of opposition parties and the press. In one high-profile example, a pro-opposition lawyer who had made light of an error in a legal document was convicted of contempt of court, a sign of Fiji’s eroding civil liberties.With little pre-election polling, analysts have struggled to predict an outcome. For 48 hours until the election ended, Fiji underwent a media blackout, in which all political parties were forbidden from campaigning. Citizens were prohibited from making political posts on social media, displaying banners and wearing colors or logos of parties. Those who break the rules could be subject to stiff penalties, including prison.Even with little coverage from the news media in Fiji itself, there were early signs that Mr. Bainimarama’s support might be declining, including a dwindling voter share over the last two elections. There is also a sense of disgruntlement among voters about some of the economic challenges the country faces in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, which devastated its all-important tourism industry.“The government’s been in office for a while, and people tend to tire of long-term governments,” said Professor O’Sullivan.Even Mr. Bainimarama’s government had sought to appeal to calls for a fresh face, running on a platform of reform, with the slogan “We are the change.”Frank Bainimarama leaving a polling station in Suva on Wednesday.Mick Tsikas/EPA, via ShutterstockTurnout in the election was also exceptionally low: Late in the day, Mohammed Saneem, the Fijian election supervisor, called on voters to come to the polls, with 51 percent of voters having cast a ballot as of an hour before polls closed. In the 2006 election, voter turnout was at 64 percent.The situation was concerning, Mr. Saneem told reporters after the polls had closed. He added: “Every Fijian had sufficient time to vote. We have significant numbers of people who did not come to vote.”The Fijian electoral base skews young, with more than 50 percent of registered voters being younger than 40, while 86 percent of candidates on the ballot are over 40. Mr. Bainimarama, 68, is a 16-year veteran of Fijian politics, while Mr. Rabuka, 74, has been a fixture of Fijian political life since 1987.The reluctance to come to the polls may communicate a wider sense of cynicism about the freedom and fairness of the election, said Professor O’Sullivan. “With the two likely contenders for prime minister being former coup leaders, it may be that people think, ‘Is it really democracy?’” More

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      Kyrsten Sinema Brings Bad Tidings for Democrats in 2024

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      Arizona was on the cusp of seating a Democratic governor alongside two Democratic senators for the first time since 1951 when Senator Kyrsten Sinema abruptly announced last week she is leaving the Democratic Party to become an independent.The move was met with harsh criticism from the left, which saw it as another in a series of self-aggrandizing acts that risk sacrificing the Democratic Party’s power and President Biden’s legislative agenda for her personal benefit.Polls make it clear that Ms. Sinema is reviled by a large segment of her now-former party. In a recent Civiqs poll of likely voters, she was at a meager 7 percent approval among Arizona Democrats. Her switch to declare herself an independent may seem like a desperate act to hold on to the Senate seat she won in 2018 by fewer than three percentage points.It may be that. But for Democrats looking ahead to 2024, her move compounds the difficulties of what is promising to be a brutal Senate map and suggests some hard truths about the party’s chances in Arizona and places like it.The Donald Trump era may have given Democrats in Arizona a bit of a blue mirage. They were very successful in the midterms: Senator Mark Kelly won re-election, Secretary of State Katie Hobbs will be the new governor, and Adrian Fontes will become the secretary of state.But it seems that the Democrats’ success is not simply the result of permanent shifts in Arizona’s demographics. Before Mr. Trump’s 2020 defeat, Arizona voted for five consecutive Republican presidential candidates and, before Ms. Sinema’s win in 2018, had not elected a single Democratic senator since 1976. Arizona’s electorate has certainly grown, urbanized and diversified, but registration percentages haven’t changed much since 2012. Today, 35 percent of Arizona registered voters are registered Republicans; 34 percent are Independents; and 31 percent are Democrats.Democrats’ recent victories were presaged by overtly moderate Democratic candidates running against opponents endorsed by Mr. Trump. Ms. Sinema’s path to the Senate was buoyed by her opponent’s irreparably damaging association with Mr. Trump.In announcing her departure from the Democratic Party, Ms. Sinema argued that representing Arizona as an independent will “provide a place of belonging for many folks across the state and the country who also are tired of the partisanship.” She is not wrong on that point: Over a quarter of Americans say they dislike both parties according to Pew Research Center. Only 6 percent said so in 1994.For independent voters, it is disdain for partisanship — not moderate ideology — that drives most of them to buck the party label. A vast majority of independents, 75 to 90 percent, have no trouble identifying their preferred party, and they nearly always vote for it. It is the rancor and incivility associated with partisanship that dissuades independents from publicly showing their true colors.Independent voters are hardly a uniform voting bloc: Generally, they just about evenly divide between those who hold liberal views and usually vote for Democrats and those who are conservative and usually vote for Republicans.The bad news for Ms. Sinema — and perhaps for Democrats — is that independent candidates rarely succeed. Without a sizable Republican or Democratic base, an independent will struggle to cobble together ideologically incompatible voters who are bonded primarily by their reluctance to publicly identify with the party they secretly support.This is one area where the Trump effect has come into play. In recent Arizona elections, the state’s independents have shown that they appear to be more favorable to Democrats than Republicans. In the state’s Senate race, exit polls suggest that independents backed Mr. Kelly over his Trump-endorsed opponent, Blake Masters, by 16 percentage points, and self-identified moderates favored Mr. Kelly by 30 percentage points. Ms. Hobbs similarly won the independent vote against her Trump-endorsed opponent, Kari Lake, by seven percentage points, and she won self-identified moderates by 20 percentage points.Indeed, recent survey data I collected across Arizona shows that independents look much more like Democrats than Republicans when it comes to their disdain for Mr. Trump. Even among those Arizona independents who say they lean toward the Republican Party, 40 percent see the state G.O.P. as “too conservative.”Given repeated Republican losses, it seems that Arizona Republicans — and independents, who have a large say in Arizona’s electoral outcomes — have rejected Mr. Trump as well as his chosen nominees, and this has helped usher in a wave of Democratic candidates, Ms. Sinema included.When a state’s status shifts to swing, it is often attributed to demographic change in the electorate. But in Arizona, that is not likely the case, or at least that isn’t the full story. And this is why the outlook for Democrats might be troubling.Sure, Arizona boasts high population growth in urban areas like Maricopa County. But voter data does not support theories that a transforming electorate is shifting electoral tides. Over time, voter registration percentages have shown Republicans declining slightly but maintaining their numerical advantage.That shift is probably better attributed to changes in the politicians who are running rather than to the people deciding whether to vote for them.If she had remained a Democrat, Ms. Sinema would not be the first politician who faced harsh criticism for frustrating her party, and many of them prevailed in subsequent elections. Senators Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska are examples.If nothing changes and Ms. Sinema runs for re-election, her former party will be left in a pickle. She probably can’t win as an independent, especially if her popularity doesn’t improve quickly, but a Democrat (like Representative Ruben Gallego, who has hinted at a Senate bid) running against Ms. Sinema and a Republican is also unlikely to win.So for Democrats, Ms. Sinema has made a daunting Senate map in 2024 even worse. There will be 33 Senate seats up for re-election, and Democrats will defend 23 (including Ms. Sinema’s). Three of those seats are in states that Mr. Trump won by at least eight percentage points in 2020: Montana, Ohio and West Virginia.When Republicans in Arizona and other states leave Mr. Trump behind, Democrats will lose this electorally useful foil. States where Democrats enjoyed upset victories against MAGA Republicans might see some of their gains rolled back, especially if the Republican Party rejects Mr. Trump and elevates candidates who better represent more of the party’s voter base.Ms. Sinema’s move has just added another degree of difficulty to a formidable Senate puzzle for Democrats in 2024 — and beyond.Samara Klar is a political scientist at the University of Arizona and an author of “Independent Politics: How Disdain for Parties Leads to Political Inaction.”The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Scott Stringer Sues for Defamation Over Sexual Assault Claim

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      Mr. Stringer, the former New York City comptroller, said that a woman’s claims of sexual assault were lies and caused “irreparable harm” as he ran for mayor.Nearly 20 months after allegations of unwanted sexual advances derailed his campaign for New York City mayor, Scott M. Stringer sued one of his accusers for defamation on Monday, arguing that she smeared his reputation with falsehoods and misrepresentations.In a lawsuit filed in State Supreme Court in Manhattan, Mr. Stringer said that the woman, Jean Kim, had done “irreparable harm to him and his political future” by portraying what he called an “on-and-off” consensual relationship as predatory. He demanded that Ms. Kim retract her accusations and pay damages.“These defamatory statements have caused Mr. Stringer emotional pain and suffering, as well as injury to his reputation, honor and dignity,” lawyers for Mr. Stinger, a longtime Democratic politician and former New York City comptroller, wrote in the 12-page complaint.The legal action appears to be a calculated risk for Mr. Stringer, 62. If successful, it could help clear up his public image as he contemplates a political comeback. But it also serves to resurface Ms. Kim’s decades-old claims of misconduct, while posing the risk of an embarrassing legal defeat and reopening scrutiny into an earlier chapter in his life.Defamation cases are notoriously hard to prove, especially for public figures. To even get his case heard in court, Mr. Stringer must get around New York’s statute of limitations for defamation, and his lawyers are relying on a relatively novel legal theory to do so.They wrote in the suit that the matter was reopened legally in August 2022, when they assert — with scant detail — that Ms. Kim caused Representative Carolyn Maloney to resurface her defamatory statement against Mr. Stringer.The factual and legal issues are particularly relevant at a moment when New York and the country are still grappling with balancing the claims of women propelled by the #MeToo movement against the right to due process, and appraising what should happen to public figures like Mr. Stringer who are accused of misconduct decades after the fact.Ms. Kim and a lawyer who had represented her during the mayoral campaign did not comment on Monday morning, after the suit was filed.In an interview on Friday, Mr. Stringer said that he decided to take legal action now, after a needed “cooling-off period” for his family, to salvage his reputation. He acknowledged that waiting so long after the initial statements may have constrained his options legally.“There are times you could just walk away,” Mr. Stringer said. “But it was a lie. It was just a total lie. And I can’t live with myself if I did not do everything in my power to expose it.”Ms. Kim came forward in April 2021, in the heat of the Democratic primary for mayor. At the time, Mr. Stringer, a liberal who had slowly risen through the ranks of city politics, was considered a top-tier candidate for the nomination, though he seldom led early public polls.In a news conference and media interviews, Ms. Kim said that Mr. Stringer sexually assaulted her in 2001 when she was working as an unpaid intern on his unsuccessful campaign for public advocate. She said Mr. Stringer, then a state assemblyman whom she viewed as an older mentor figure, repeatedly groped her without consent, put his hands down the back of her pants, pressured her to have sex — and then warned her not to tell anyone.“He constantly reminded me of his power by saying things like, ‘You want me to make a phone call for you to change your life,’ ‘You want me to make you the first Asian district leader,’” Ms. Kim later told The New York Times. Many prominent supporters quickly backed away from his campaign. Mr. Stringer stayed in the race, but ultimately finished fifth in a primary election won by Eric Adams, who went on to become mayor.Mr. Stringer disputed Ms. Kim’s account, saying they were peers and that their relationship had been consensual and public within the tight circles of Upper West Side Democratic politics. His campaign also presented documents that showed that Ms. Kim, who has worked as a political lobbyist, might have helped one of Mr. Stringer’s rivals, Andrew Yang, which she disputed.Monday’s lawsuit largely repeats the conflicting stories without new evidence, and seeks to highlight factual errors or inconsistencies in Ms. Kim’s claims.It remains unclear if Ms. Kim’s version of events can be independently corroborated; she has not provided any records, nor has she mentioned associates with whom she discussed the allegations at the time.Defamation, particularly cases involving public figures like Mr. Stringer, can be difficult to prove, and the contradictory claims by Ms. Kim and Mr. Stringer — involving shifting sexual and romantic mores, political power and few hard pieces of evidence — only add to that burden.Mr. Stringer appears to have even more pressing legal burdens, with Ms. Kim likely to argue for dismissal because her original statements fall outside New York’s statute of limitations.His argument that the timeline was restarted in August rests on photos on social media that apparently show Ms. Kim at a campaign event with Ms. Maloney, who was running in a primary contest against Representative Jerrold Nadler, a longtime mentor of Mr. Stringer’s.Two weeks later, the congresswoman attacked Mr. Nadler in The New York Post for supporting “a man accused of sexual assault.” The lawsuit argues that it should have been “reasonably foreseeable” for Ms. Kim that Ms. Maloney would “republish” her claims after their meeting.Some allies of Mr. Stringer, left, believe he should be considered a potential heir to his mentor, Representative Jerrold Nadler, right, if he decides to retire.Hiroko Masuike/The New York TimesLegal experts briefed on the issues raised by the case, though, said that the application of the theory known as “republication” would be ripe for challenge on multiple grounds. Though the suit insinuates that Ms. Kim somehow prompted Ms. Maloney’s statement, Mr. Stringer’s lawyers never actually state what, if anything, she told the congresswoman to encourage or direct her to reference Mr. Stringer. “If there’s no clear evidence that the defendant directed the third party to make the statement, it’s fairly likely the case would be dismissed,” said Lee Levine, a retired media lawyer with decades of experience litigating defamation cases, including some for The Times.Though The Times reviewed a draft of the complaint before it was filed, it agreed with Mr. Stringer not to share details of the case with Mr. Levine or anyone else ahead of time.Mr. Stringer and his lawyers were clearly aware of the statutory limits. The suit filed on Monday made no mention of a second woman, Teresa Logan, who followed Ms. Kim’s allegations by accusing Mr. Stringer of kissing and groping her at a bar he helped found in the 1990s. That instance, Mr. Stringer conceded, was clearly outside the statute of limitations.Mr. Stringer said in 2021 that he had “no memory” of the woman but added that if they had met, he was sorry to have made her uncomfortable.If the case proceeds, Mr. Stringer and his allies believe the discovery process will turn up new and relevant information related to Ms. Kim’s actions and whether she coordinated her public statements with any of his political rivals.Mr. Stringer is represented in the suit by Milton L. Williams Jr., a former federal prosecutor and white-collar criminal defense lawyer who currently serves as the chair of the New York City Conflicts of Interest Board.After his loss, Mr. Stringer finished out his term as comptroller last December and began a consulting practice. But he almost immediately began discussing a political comeback.He went as far as to briefly campaign for a State Senate seat in Manhattan this spring, but he never actually entered the race. Allies still believe he should be considered a potential heir to Mr. Nadler should the congressman decide to retire.Still, the accusations of misconduct would almost certainly complicate any effort to return to public office.“Right now, I don’t have any plans to run for office. It’s something I’m not ruling out someday,” Mr. Stringer said. “This lawsuit is what’s in front of me at the moment.” More

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      Tied New Hampshire Race Spurs a Redo. Why Aren’t Voters Talking About It?

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      One race’s final tally: 970 to 970. So two candidates square off again in a city where voters are mostly keeping their politics to themselves.ROCHESTER, N.H. — Residents were intrigued, but not exactly shocked, when a state House of Representatives race in the small city of Rochester ended in a deadlock last month: 970 votes cast for the incumbent Democrat, 970 for the Republican challenger.In the purplish state of New Hampshire, where Rochester sits between the liberal southern seacoast and the more conservative Lakes Region at its center, the tie only confirmed what people already knew: Their city of 30,000, like their country, is politically split. And like many Americans, they are trying to navigate the divide with a careful approach: keeping their views to themselves and attempting to get along.Last week, state legislators voted to send the tied race in Rochester’s Ward 4, where there are about 3,000 voters, back to the city for a special election, expected to be held in February. Both candidates said they are determined to prevail, though they dread the challenge — familiar to many a hopeful presidential candidate — of inspiring voter turnout in the frigid, slushy middle of a long New Hampshire winter.“It’s going to be a tough slog,” said David Walker, the Republican, a longtime City Council member who challenged state Representative Chuck Grassie, a three-term Democrat. “I can’t see a lot of elderly people coming out in the cold, but you just have to knock on the doors and entice them.”The two men have known each other, and have worked together on city business, for years. Mr. Grassie said he mentored Mr. Walker in his early years on the council, helping the newcomer learn how to read a budget. Mr. Walker said he once helped Mr. Grassie with an unsuccessful campaign for mayor.They live a half-mile apart on the same street of modest houses, separated by a cemetery, a ball field and the polling place for their ward, a brick elementary school.State Representative Chuck Grassie, a three-term Democrat, has been a proponent for causes including shoreline protection, tax relief for older residents and the decriminalization of marijuana.Ryan David Brown for The New York TimesDavid Walker, a Republican and longtime City Council member who retired recently from a career as an engineering supervisor, wants to focus on economic issues and rein in spending.M. Scott Brauer for The New York TimesLow-key despite their unresolved rivalry, the candidates say they see no reason to become enemies now. “I went by his house the other day and said hello,” Mr. Walker said. “He said, ‘Oh, you’ve come to concede?’ And I said, ‘No.’”The mild tone of the local standoff stands in stark contrast to recent national races with split outcomes, like that of Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia, the Democrat who last week fended off a challenge from Herschel Walker, a Republican, in a bitter and chaotic runoff. In Rochester, as in many small cities and towns, politics tend to be practical, with the drama left at town hall. David Walker, 59, who retired recently from a career as an engineering supervisor, describes himself as “conservative but not hard core.” He said voters he talked to during the campaign were most concerned about inflation, the economy and heating costs this winter, and he wants to rein in what he said was reckless spending by Democrats.The Aftermath of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsCard 1 of 6A moment of reflection. More