Politics and Government

Subterms

    More stories

    • 150 Shares199 Views

      in Elections

      What Happened With Liz Truss in Britain? A Guide to the Basics.

      by

      A little over six weeks into her leadership, the British prime minister said she would resign.LONDON — The rapid political collapse of Liz Truss ended as she announced her resignation on Thursday, a little more than six weeks after she became Britain’s leader. Her agenda had floundered, her own party had turned on her and commentators widely speculated on whether she could outlast a head of lettuce. She couldn’t.She had pledged to shoulder through the turmoil despite widespread calls for her resignation. But minute by minute the heat on her grew until there was no path out.If you need to get caught up, here is a guide to the basics.Who is Liz Truss and how did she become prime minister?Ms. Truss was anointed on Sept. 6 to replace Boris Johnson, who was elected by voters in 2019 but who flamed out in spectacular fashion after a series of scandals, forcing him to step down in July.The general public did not elect Ms. Truss — instead, she won a leadership contest among members of her Conservative Party. To replace Mr. Johnson, the party’s members of Parliament narrowed a field of candidates to two, who were then put up to a vote by about 160,000 dues-paying party members. (They’re an unrepresentative group of the nation’s 67 million residents, far more likely to be male, older, middle-class and white.)Ms. Truss, 47, had been Mr. Johnson’s hawkish foreign secretary, a free-market champion and eventual supporter of Brexit (after she changed her mind), winning over the right flank of the party despite her more moderate past. (Before joining the Conservative Party, she was a member of the centrist Liberal Democrats when she was a student at Oxford University.)How did it start to come undone?She was never going to have it easy. As Ms. Truss entered office, the nation was staring down a calamitous economic picture, highlighted by energy bills that were predicted to jump 80 percent in October and jump again in January. It threatened to send millions of Britons, already reeling from inflation and other challenges, spiraling into destitution, unable to heat or power their homes.So it was unwelcome news when her signature economic plans immediately made things worse.Her announced plans for tax cuts, deregulation and borrowing so alarmed global investors that the value of the British pound sank to a record low against the U.S. dollar. The Bank of England stepped in to prop up government bonds, an extraordinary intervention to calm the markets.The response left no doubt that her free-market ambitions were untenable. In a humiliating reversal, she was forced to reverse virtually all of the tax cuts this week, including a much-criticized one on high earners. She fired Kwasi Kwarteng, the chancellor of the Exchequer who was the architect of the plan and a close ally, and adopted economic policies favored by the opposition Labour party.“You cannot engage in the sort of U-turn that she has engaged in and retain your political credibility,” said Jon Tonge, a professor of politics at the University of Liverpool.How did her tenure come under threat?Her concessions did little to mollify a growing rebellion from within her own party, which had the power to topple her in much the same way it toppled Mr. Johnson.The Conservatives — also known as Tories — had seen their popularity decline in public opinion polls after Mr. Johnson’s scandals, and their numbers cratered to staggering new lows as Ms. Truss stumbled. A Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll this week revealed the lowest approval rating it had ever recorded for a prime minister, with 70 percent disapproving of Ms. Truss, including 67 percent of Conservatives.If a general election were held today, 56 percent would vote for Labour while 20 percent would vote Conservative, the poll found.The Conservative Party’s discontent with Ms. Truss crescendoed in turn, and she was enveloped with a palpable sense of crisis. On Wednesday, it boiled into a frantic fight for her survival — “I’m a fighter and not a quitter,” she said while being grilled by members of Parliament.Then even more chaos broke out. Suella Braverman, Britain’s interior minister, stepped down after an email breach, but took a swipe at Ms. Truss in her resignation letter, saying she had “concerns about the direction of this government.” A vote on fracking in Parliament turned into a reported scene of bullying, shouting, physical manhandling and tears. More Conservative members of Parliament openly called for Ms. Truss to step down. Rumors swirled of high-profile resignations. It was difficult to keep up.“In short, it is total, absolute, abject chaos,” a news announcer said on iTV. Charles Walker, a Conservative lawmaker, did not hold back in an interview on BBC.On Thursday, she said she had handed her resignation to the king, with a new leadership election planned within a week.What comes next?Ms. Truss will remain prime minister until her successor is chosen. (Here are the likely front-runners.) In her resignation remarks, Ms. Truss said a leadership election would be completed in the next week, bringing Britain its second unelected leader in a row.The next general election — when the entire public can participate, and the next opportunity for Labour to take control — is not scheduled until January 2025 at the latest. A Conservative leader could call for one earlier, but they would have little reason to do so imminently since polls indicate the party would be wiped out by Labour.Mr. Tonge said one advantage Conservatives have is time — the party could theoretically regain credibility if the economy recovers in the following years, he said.“I don’t think that changing the leader will necessarily save the Conservatives,” he said. “But you can engage in damage limitation by doing so.” More

    • 163 Shares169 Views

      in Elections

      Walker Says His Mental Illness Is Healed. Experts Say It’s Not So Simple.

      by

      WASHINGTON — Confronting a barrage of accusations about his personal life — including claims he threatened women and paid for an abortion despite his public opposition to the procedure — Herschel Walker has repeatedly invoked his history of mental illness in his defense.“As everyone knows, I had a real battle with mental health, even wrote a book about it,” Mr. Walker, the Republican candidate for Senate in Georgia, said in a television ad released at the height of the abortion controversy. “And by the grace of God, I’ve overcome it.”In the ad, and on the campaign trail, Mr. Walker, a former football star, does not elaborate. But in his 2008 memoir, “Breaking Free,” he revealed that he had been diagnosed with dissociative identity disorder, formerly known as multiple personality disorder. He described his 12 “alters” — distinct identities that helped him cope with the trauma of being bullied as a child. He wrote of rage and “out-of-control behavior”; he played Russian roulette with a loaded gun.Now, as he tries to steady a campaign that could determine control of the Senate, Mr. Walker often speaks of these events in religious, not medical, terms. He either denies the accusations or says he does not remember what happened. Still, he casts himself as a redemption story, saying he is a Christian “saved by grace.”But experts say Mr. Walker’s assertion that he has “overcome” the disorder is simplistic at best: Like other mental illnesses, dissociative identity disorder cannot be cured in the classic sense. Psychiatrists say that while patients can learn to manage this disorder — and even live symptom-free for extended periods — the symptoms can recur, often triggered by stress.“You can get better,” said Dr. David Spiegel, a Stanford University psychiatry professor who studies and treats dissociative identity disorder. “But it doesn’t just evaporate.”Dr. Spiegel and other experts interviewed for this article have not treated Mr. Walker and could not speak to the specifics of his case.Mr. Walker’s retelling does not account for other complicating details. Experts say the disorder does not cause violent behavior. Some of the episodes — including an ex-girlfriend’s accusation that he had threatened her — took place after Mr. Walker claimed to have his disorder under control.The Walker campaign did not respond this week to questions about his health history and has not released his medical records.Last Friday night, during a debate with his Democratic opponent, Senator Raphael Warnock, Mr. Walker said he no longer needed treatment: “I continue to get help if I need help, but I don’t need any help. I’m doing well.”The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsBoth parties are making their final pitches ahead of the Nov. 8 election.G.O.P. Gains Edge: Republicans enter the final weeks of the contest for control of Congress with an advantage as the economy and inflation have surged as the dominant concerns, a Times/Siena poll found.Codifying Roe: President Biden pledged that the first bill he would send to Capitol Hill next year if Democrats expand their control of Congress in the midterm elections would be legislation to enshrine abortion rights into law.Florida Senate Race: In the only debate of the contest, exchanges between Senator Marco Rubio and his Democratic challenger, Representative Val Demings, got fiery at times. Here are four takeaways.Aggressive Tactics: Right-wing leaders are calling on election activists to monitor voting in the midterm elections in search of evidence to confirm unfounded theories of election fraud.In an interview with Axios last year, Mr. Walker likened his condition to a broken leg, saying, “I put the cast on. It healed.”A supporter at a Walker campaign event. Mr. Walker casts himself as a redemption story, saying he is a Christian “saved by grace.” Nicole Craine for The New York TimesDemocrats have said Mr. Walker’s description of his mental illness does not fully explain his previous behavior. In a statement, Mr. Warnock’s campaign manager, Quentin Fulks, said only that Mr. Walker had “not given Georgians an honest accounting of his violent past.”Health issues have been front and center for other candidates this year; in Pennsylvania, John Fetterman, the Democratic candidate for Senate, is facing questions from Republicans about whether he is fit to serve after a stroke. Even Republican strategists say Mr. Walker should answer similar questions.“I think it’s fair, and Herschel obviously thinks it’s a big part of his life,” said Scott Jennings, a former adviser to Senator Mitch McConnell, the minority leader. “If I were Herschel’s campaign I would say Americans live with mental health challenges every day — we just happen to be the first campaign to talk openly about it.”Dissociative identity disorder, known by its acronym D.I.D., is a relatively rare psychiatric condition usually triggered by childhood trauma, including sexual or physical abuse, or war. Studies show it affects about 1 percent of the population, said Dr. Paul S. Appelbaum, a professor of psychiatry at Columbia University, though “many of those people may have quite mild cases and do not experience problems from it and never come to clinical attention.”It is characterized by changes in behavior that occur when a patient fails to develop a unified sense of self, and instead “disassociates” into competing “self-states” that emerge in different situations. Many patients experience amnesia.Dr. Spiegel drew a comparison to healthy people who opt to act like “a different person” in different settings. But people with dissociative identity disorder, he said, “often don’t experience having choice.”Treatment typically involves intensive therapy; Dr. Spiegel often uses hypnosis, he said. While there is no medication to treat this disorder, some patients take medicine for conditions that occur alongside it, such as depression. Patients are required during treatment to take responsibility for their behavior; Mr. Walker says he has done so.“One of the core aspects of successful treatment for D.I.D. is holding people with the disorder responsible for their behavior, even when they say they don’t remember it, or that another self-state did it,” said Dr. Richard J. Loewenstein, a professor of psychiatry at the University of Maryland and a leading expert in the disorder, which was known as multiple personality disorder until 1994, when the name was changed to reflect a more nuanced understanding of the condition.In his book, written with two ghostwriters, Mr. Walker recounts his childhood as a “daily assault of verbal and sometimes physical abuse” by classmates who thought he was stupid because he stuttered. His doctors later told him he had created other personalities to help him cope.He says his “alters” were at times a positive force, helping him to “forget most of the awful things that had happened to me.” After he understood them, he wrote, he gave them titles.The General, or Coach, oversaw the other identities. The Hero “put on the facade” of a tough guy. The Sentry served as an emotional guard who “never let anyone get really close to me.” The Warrior “loved the physical contact” of football and did not feel pain; in the book, Mr. Walker describes having his wisdom teeth extracted without anesthesia. The Indifferent Daredevil “didn’t care about what other people would think or what was right and wrong.”In a 2014 ESPN documentary. he said he thought that in high school he might join the Marines, because it would give him license to “shoot people.” Instead, he pursued a career in sports. Football became his “coping mechanism.”But after he retired from the Dallas Cowboys in 1997, Mr. Walker wrote, his life spun out of control. He had an extramarital affair. He played Russian roulette, “risking my life with a gun at my head.” (The book does not recount an episode in which his ex-wife, Cindy DeAngelis Grossman, said he put a gun to her head and threatened to “blow my brains out.” Mr. Walker has not denied the allegation, but says he does not remember doing so.)In 2001, Mr. Walker writes, things came to a head when he grew enraged at a car salesman who was late in making a delivery. He could feel “my jaw pulsing and my teeth grinding,” he wrote, as a voice prodded him to pull out his pistol and kill the man. Another voice countered: “No Herschel, that’s wrong. You can’t shoot a man down in cold blood over this.”At that point, Mr. Walker sought help from Jerry Mungadze, a therapist who gave him a diagnosis of D.I.D. and arranged for him to be treated as an outpatient at Del Amo psychiatric hospital in Torrance, Calif., where doctors confirmed the diagnosis, Mr. Walker wrote.Walker has, at times, used his campaign to urge others to speak more candidly about mental illness.Nicole Craine for The New York TimesDr. Mungadze, who wrote the introduction to Mr. Walker’s book, has since stirred controversy with his methods. Dr. Mungadze, who holds a doctorate in “counselor education,” according to his website, and is not a medical doctor, specializes in Christian counseling and employs a technique he calls brain mapping, in which he diagnoses patients by asking them to color in a map of a brain. Experts say it has no basis in science.Mr. Walker has not said whether he still sees Dr. Mungadze, who declined an interview request.Dissociative identity disorder has long been the subject of intense debate; some psychiatrists say it is vastly over-diagnosed, and others have questioned whether it exists.Americans are most likely familiar with it from popular culture: It is central to the 1957 film “Three Faces of Eve” and to the 1973 blockbuster book “Sybil,” about a woman with 16 personalities. There is now a growing D.I.D. community on TikTok.In a 2011 book, “Sybil Exposed,” the writer Debbie Nathan reported that the personalities were pressured into existence by the therapist, who was invested in the idea of having a patient with the condition so she could speak about it at professional meetings. She cites a letter in which the real “Sybil” wrote that she was “essentially lying” — only to later recant.“In my view, it’s a metaphor rather than a true condition,” said Dr. Allen J. Frances, chairman emeritus of the Department of Psychiatry at Duke University School of Medicine. “It’s a way of expressing distress in people who have an internal conflict.”In 1994, while leading a task force that revised the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders — often called “psychiatry’s Bible” — Dr. Frances sought to eliminate “multiple personality disorder” from the manual. Instead, the task force changed the name. Dr. Frances said diagnoses often surge when the disorder turns up in popular culture.Dr. Appelbaum, who is also a past president of the American Psychiatric Association, said there was a consensus in the field that D.I.D. is “a real phenomenon, a real disorder.”Admissions of mental illness were once a barrier to a career in politics. In 1972, Thomas Eagleton was forced to drop off the Democratic presidential ticket as George McGovern’s running mate after disclosures that he had been hospitalized for depression and treated with electroshock therapy. But those stigmas are easing, and some mental health experts give Mr. Walker credit for raising awareness.As he campaigns, Mr. Walker has cast himself as a “champion for mental health,” and hits back at critics by saying they are perpetrating a stigma. At Friday night’s debate, he railed against “people like Senator Warnock that demonize mental health.” (Mr. Warnock has introduced a series of bills to expand mental health services.)Then, Mr. Walker turned to the camera, as if to deliver a public service announcement, and declared, “I want to tell everyone out there, you can get help.” More

    • 125 Shares99 Views

      in Elections

      A Shrinking Town at the Center of France’s Culture Wars

      by

      A plan to revitalize the town of Callac by bringing in skilled immigrants has divided it and made it an emblem of a nation’s anxiety over its identity and decline.CALLAC, France — A shrinking town set among cow pastures in Brittany seems an unlikely setting for France’s soul searching over immigration and identity.The main square is named after the date in 1944 that local resistance fighters were rounded up by Nazi soldiers, many never seen again. It offers a cafe run by a social club, a museum dedicated to the Brittany spaniel and a hefty serving of rural flight — forlorn empty buildings, their grills pulled down and windows shuttered, some for decades.So when town council members heard of a program that could renovate the dilapidated buildings and fill much-needed jobs such as nurses’ aides and builders by bringing in skilled refugees, it seemed like a winning lottery ticket.“It hit me like lightning,” said Laure-Line Inderbitzin, a deputy mayor. “It sees refugees not as charity, but an opportunity.”As in many towns across France, Callac’s population has been in slow decline for decades.Andrea Mantovani for The New York TimesBut what town leaders saw as a chance for rejuvenation, others saw as evidence of a “great replacement” of native French people that has become a touchstone of anger and anxiety, particularly on the hard right.In no time, tiny Callac, a town of just 2,200, was divided, the focus of national attention and the scene of competing protests for and against the plan. Today it sits at the intersection of complex issues that have bedeviled France for many years: how to deal with mounting numbers of migrants arriving in the country and how to breathe new life into withering towns, before it is too late.As in many towns across France, Callac’s population has been in slow decline since the end of the Trente Glorieuses, the 30-year postwar growth stretch when living standards and wages rose. Today, around half the people who remain are retirees. The biggest employer is the nursing home.A wander around downtown reveals dozens of empty storefronts, where florists, dry-cleaners and photo studios once stood. The town’s last dental office announced in July it was closing — the stress of continually turning new patients away, when her patient list topped 9,000, was too much for Françoise Méheut.“I am selling, and no one is buying,” said Françoise Méheut, a dentist in Callac. “If there was a dentist among the refugees, I would be thrilled.”Andrea Mantovani for The New York TimesShe stopped sleeping, she burst into tears over the dental chair and she turned to antidepressants before finally deciding to retire early.“It’s a catastrophe,” Dr. Méheut said. “I have the impression of abandoning people.”“I am selling, and no one is buying,” she added of her business. “If there was a dentist among the refugees, I would be thrilled.”While many in town say there are no jobs, the council did a survey and found the opposite — 75 unfilled salaried jobs, from nursing assistants to contractors, despite the local 18 percent unemployment rate.The council still hopes to carry out its plan in cooperation with the Merci Endowment Fund, an organization created by a wealthy Parisian family that had made its fortune in high-end children’s clothing and wanted to give back.In 2016, the matriarch of the family volunteered to host an Afghan refugee in the family mansion near the Eiffel Tower. Her three sons, seeing the joy he brought to their mother’s life and the talents he offered, wanted to expand the idea broadly.The Merci fund has already bought the building where the town’s last book store closed in August. It now plans to reopen the store for the community, while housing a first family of asylum seekers in the upstairs apartment.Andrea Mantovani for The New York Times“The idea is to create a win-win situation,” said the eldest son, Benoit Cohen, a French filmmaker and author who wrote a book about the experience called “Mohammad, My Mother and Me.”“They will help revitalize the village.”The Merci project has proposed handpicking asylum seekers, recruiting for skills as well as a desire to live in the countryside. Then, the Cohens promise to develop a wraparound program to help them assimilate, with local French courses and apartments in refurbished buildings.The plan also called for new community spaces and training programs for all — locals and refugees together — something that most excited Ms. Inderbitzin, the project’s local champion on the council and a teacher in the local middle school.The town has more than 50 nonprofit clubs and associations, including one that runs the local cinema, and another that delivers food to hungry families in town.The town council recently bought a former school, and announced it planned to convert it into the “heart” of the Merci project.Andrea Mantovani for The New York Times“Social development for all — that’s in Callac’s genes,” said Ms. Inderbitzin. “It’s a virtuous circle. They could bring lots of energy, culture, youth.”Not everyone is as excited at that prospect. A petition launched by three residents opposing the project has more than 10,000 signatures — many from far beyond Callac.But even in town, some grumble about lack of consultation or transparency. They worry Callac will lose its Frenchness and will trade its small-town tranquillity for big-city problems. Others question the motives of a rich family in Paris meddling in their rural home.“We aren’t lab rats. We aren’t here for them to experiment on,” said Danielle Le Men, a retired teacher in town who is starting a community group to stop the project, which she fears will bring “radical Islam” to the community.Catching wind of the dispute, the right-wing anti-immigrant party Reconquest, run by the failed presidential candidate Éric Zemmour, organized a protest in September, warning the project would bring dangerous insecurity and complaining that it would introduce halal stores and girls in head scarves.“We aren’t lab rats. We aren’t here for them to experiment on,” said Danielle Le Men, a retired teacher in town who is launching a community group to stop the project.Andrea Mantovani for The New York TimesA block away, counterprotesters crowded the main square. “To the fascists who wave the red banner of a hypothetical replacement,” Murielle Lepvraud, a local politician with the radical left France Unbowed party, told the crowd, “I respond, yes, your ideas will soon be replaced.”More than 100 shield-wielding riot police officers kept the groups apart.Even many of those who have experienced Callac’s decline firsthand remain unconvinced.“All the young people left, because there are no jobs here,” said Siegried Leleu, serving glasses of kir and beer to a thin crowd of white-haired gentlemen gathered around her bar, Les Marronniers, on a Friday afternoon.There was a time, she said, when she offered billiards and karaoke and kept the taps running late. But with the town’s youth departed, she recalibrated her closing time to match her remaining clientele’s schedule — 8 p.m.“Why would we give jobs to outsiders?” she said. “We should help people here first.”“All the young people left, because there are no jobs here,” said Siegried Leleu, right.Andrea Mantovani for The New York TimesStanding on the street outside his small bar, which doubles as a cluttered antiques store, her neighbor, Paul Le Contellac, assessed the proposal from another angle.His uncle married a refugee who had fled Spain with her family during the civil war and found shelter in this village. Later, when France was occupied by Nazi Germany, his grandmother harbored resistance fighters in her attic.“This is a town that has always welcomed refugees,” said Mr. Le Contellac. “Callac is not ugly, but it’s not pretty either. It needs some new energy.”While immigration may hold the potential to do that, the issue remains hotly contested, even while the migration crisis had been dampened by the pandemic.“This is a town that has always welcomed refugees,” said Paul Le Contellac. “Callac is not ugly, but it’s not pretty either. It needs some new energy.”Andrea Mantovani for The New York TimesToday, as the pandemic appears to wane, the number of asylum seekers arriving to France is climbing again, threatening to restore the issue’s volatility.Since the height of the migration crisis several years ago, the government of President Emmanuel Macron has attempted to split the difference on its immigration policy.On the one hand, it has aimed to deter asylum applicants by increasing police at the border and by cutting back some state services.On the other, for those who are accepted as refugees, it has poured resources into French lessons and employment programs to ease their integration.The government has also tried to disperse asylum seekers outside of Paris, where services are strained, housing is hard to find and large tent camps have sprung up.Recently, Mr. Macron announced that he wanted to formalize the policy in a new immigration bill, sending asylum seekers from the dense urban centers, already plagued with social and economic problems, to the “rural areas, that are losing people.”The plan is a lot like that being put in place already in Callac, which, paradoxically, has been receiving refugee families since 2015, about 40 people at present, with little or no notice, like many small French towns.Mohammed Ebrahim, right, and his wife, Rabiha Khalil, second left, both of Kurdish origin, arrived from Lebanon nearly a year ago. Callac has been receiving refugee families since 2015.Andrea Mantovani for The New York TimesMohammad Ebrahim heard the noise of the warring protests from his living room window, but had no idea what the commotion was about — certainly not about him, his wife and four children, who arrived a year ago.Kurds who escaped Al Qaeda in Syria, they have felt nothing but welcome, flashing photos on their cellphones of community meals and celebrations they have been invited to. But the perks of village hospitality are offset by the logistics of living in the countryside without a car. Training, medical appointments, even regular French classes are all far away.When he hears the plan to offer wraparound services and school in Callac, Mr. Ebrahim smiles broadly. “Then we could go to French class every day,” he said.Callac may now prove to be a testing ground of whether a more structured approach can work and divisions be overcome.“This became about French politics,” says Sylvie Lagrue, a local volunteer who drives refugees to doctor’s appointments and helps them set up their internet. “Now, everyone hopes this will quiet down, and we continue with the program.”Though the project still has no official budget, timeline or target number of asylum seekers to be resettled, the town council nevertheless is tiptoeing ahead.It recently bought a hulking abandoned stone school, rising like a ghost in the middle of town, and announced it planned to convert it into the “heart” of the project — with a refugee reception area, as well as a community nursery and a co-working space.The Merci fund has already bought the building where the town’s last book store closed in August. It now plans to reopen the store for the community, while housing a first family of asylum seekers in the upstairs apartment.“The beginning has to be slow,” Mr. Cohen said. “We have to see if it works. We don’t want to scare people.”The town of Callac, in Brittany’s countryside.Andrea Mantovani for The New York Times More

    • 63 Shares169 Views

      in Elections

      The State of the Midterms

      by

      The midterm elections are less than three weeks away. We explain the state of the races for the House and Senate.Midterm elections can tell us a lot about American political life. They’re a referendum on the party in power, a chance to take the political temperature of the country and a glimpse into the anxieties and hopes of voters.But those are things we’ll know a lot more about after Election Day. For the next three weeks, all anyone really wants to know is: Who’s going to win?For Democrats, keeping their trifecta of power — the Senate, the House and the White House — would mean bucking decades of history. In Washington, it’s practically an ironclad rule that the president’s party loses seats in midterm elections.These are not conventional times, though. The country is still recovering from a pandemic and a siege on the Capitol. The Supreme Court overturned nearly a half-century of federal abortion rights, and the former president and his supporters still refuse to admit that they lost the last election. As the executive editor of The Times wrote in this newsletter last month, the two parties disagree not just on their vision for the country but also on democracy itself.The midterm race has reflected this uncertainty. In the spring, all signs pointed toward a Republican wave. The dynamic changed this summer — with the Supreme Court ruling on abortion rights, passage of Democratic legislation and falling gas prices — raising Democratic hopes of making some gains. Now, economic anxiety has deepened as gas prices ticked back up and inflation remains high. And America looks headed toward divided government.Today, I’m going to explain where the election stands, and why House races are shaping up in Republicans’ favor, while the Senate is anything but conclusive.The HouseIn the House, elections tend to rise and fall with the national tides, with individual members rarely able to combat the larger political trends. This year, that’s bad news for Democrats, who worry that their party may have peaked a few weeks too early.There’s an expectation among both parties that a new Republican majority will take office in January. (Some lobbyists are already planning for this.) To win control of the House, Republicans need to pick up five seats on net. They might gain three from redistricting alone, according to some estimates.Democrats are also defending a greater number of vulnerable seats. Republicans have a good chance of flipping nine Democratic seats, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Only two Republican seats are expected to change into Democratic hands. And two-thirds of the races Cook considers “tossups” — that is, too close to safely predict — are in districts held by Democrats.A Republican win would be in line with recent history. In 2006, George W. Bush described the 31-seat Democratic wave in the House as a “thumping.” Four years later, Barack Obama experienced a “shellacking” with a 63-seat Republican gain. In 2018, during Donald Trump’s presidency, Democrats picked up 41 seats.While President Biden’s approval rating has risen in recent months, it’s still below 50 percent, and in many states he’s less popular than his party’s candidates. Perhaps because of that, Biden has not held a campaign rally since before Labor Day.The SenateUnlike House races, Senate contests can rise and fall much more on personality — or as Mitch McConnell, the chamber’s Republican leader, put it last month, on “candidate quality.”Several inexperienced, Trump-friendly Republican candidates — Don Bolduc in New Hampshire, Herschel Walker in Georgia, Blake Masters in Arizona, Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and J.D. Vance in Ohio — won their primaries this year. Their stumbles have given Democrats a boost, making the Senate more competitive.But Senate races aren’t immune from the national mood. As polls find voters putting more emphasis on the economy than on abortion, Republicans have improved their standing in a few key races, such as in Nevada and Wisconsin. Some strategists also attribute the change to a deluge of ads hammering their opponents over crime.And two of the races remain extremely volatile. In Georgia, Walker, an opponent of abortion, has spent the past couple weeks grappling with revelations that he paid for an ex-girlfriend’s abortion. And in Pennsylvania, John Fetterman, the Democratic nominee, spent months away from the campaign trail while recovering from a stroke. (His doctor said yesterday that Fetterman had shown some lingering effects but was recovering well.)In the most recent public polling, the majority of competitive races remain very tight. And Democrats’ advantage in the Senate is so narrow that Republicans need a net gain of just one seat to flip the chamber.The bottom lineDemocrats are relieved that they do not seem to be headed, at least right now, toward a repeat of the deep losses of 2010. But many have begun expressing a sense of gloom — and have cracked gallows jokes that the party’s uptick would have been better timed for September than July.My advice: Prepare for a long election night. Or weeks, if the results end up hinging on a Georgia runoff race in December.More election newsSenator Bernie Sanders of Vermont will campaign in eight states before the midterms, an effort to energize progressive voters.A new election crimes office in Florida arrested people who appeared confused about their voting rights.In the On Politics newsletter, Blake Hounshell explains how Republicans are pouring money into newly competitive House races.Senator Ron Johnson, a Wisconsin Republican running for re-election, is urging his supporters to report suspected voting problems.Representative Lee Zeldin, a Trump ally who voted to overturn the 2020 election results, hopes to become governor of New York.THE LATEST NEWSWar in UkraineA recently shelled building in Donetsk, in a Russian-controlled region of Ukraine.Alexander Ermochenko/ReutersVladimir Putin, Russia’s president, declared martial law in four illegally annexed regions of Ukraine.Russia has redeployed military hardware and troops that were in Syria.Ukraine will reduce electricity use after Russian attacks knocked out a third of its power stations.PoliticsIn a lawsuit challenging the 2020 election, Trump submitted voter fraud information even after his lawyers had told him it was incorrect, a federal judge said.Trump made bigoted remarks about Jews and Persians at an event last year, including asking a filmmaker whether he was “a good Jewish character.”“There might be somebody else I’d prefer more,” Mike Pence said when asked if he would vote for Trump in 2024.The Biden administration is granting $2.8 billion to companies to expand electric-vehicle battery production.Other Big StoriesLiz Truss, Britain’s prime minister, was forced to dismiss one of her most senior cabinet ministers, heightening a government crisis.Social Security will allow people to select the gender they identify with.Suzanne Scott, the C.E.O. of Fox News, is at the center of a $1.6 billion defamation lawsuit against the network.The actress Anna May Wong will become the first Asian American to appear on U.S. currency.A property developer is pitching a casino for Times Square.OpinionsEl Paso is a blue-leaning, majority-Latino city. It’s busing migrants elsewhere, too, Megan Stack writes.China’s zero-Covid campaign is another attempt to control citizens, Ai Weiwei argues.MORNING READSCaitlin Covington is the “president of fall.”Kelly Burgess for The New York TimesChristian Girl Autumn: Meet the woman behind the meme.Travel: Spend 36 hours in Milan.Art: How did a Baptist minister come to own hundreds of Edward Hoppers?‘Pillars of Creation’: Stunning images from the James Webb Space Telescope.Ask Well: Can e-cigarettes help you quit smoking?Advice from Wirecutter: Accessories for coffee and tea drinkers.Lives Lived: After becoming chairman of the New York Stock Exchange at 39, Ralph DeNunzio stepped down from the securities firm Kidder, Peabody & Company following an insider-trading scandal. He died at 90.SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETICAstros, Padres win: Houston took a 1-0 series lead in the A.L.C.S. with a 4-2 win over the Yankees last night, while San Diego came back from a 4-0 deficit to even the N.L.C.S. with Philadelphia. In The Times, Tyler Kepner recaps the Phillies-Padres game.The contending Pelicans? New Orleans made its case as N.B.A. darling last night with a huge 130-108 win in Brooklyn over Kevin Durant and the Nets. Zion Williamson, playing for the first time in more than a year, scored 25 points.Dolphins QB talks concussion: Tua Tagovailoa said he didn’t remember “being carted off” during Miami’s Week 4 loss against Cincinnati, in which he suffered a concussion that prompted a leaguewide controversy. He’ll return to the field this Sunday.ARTS AND IDEAS Illustration by Mohamad AbdouniBeirut’s drag iconsStars like Dolly Parton, Madonna and Whitney Houston inspired a generation of American drag queens to take the stage. In Beirut’s growing drag scene, Arab pop icons are the muses, too.In their outfits and performances, Beirut’s drag queens evoke sequin-clad singers like Haifa Wehbe, Sabah and Sherihan, who broadcast camp and glamour across the Arab world for decades. Their stage looks ensure “Arab representation in drag culture,” Anya Kneez, a queen, said.Anya gets messages from aspiring drag queens all over the Arab world. “This is what I want to see,” she said. “I want to see young Arab queers coming out and doing their thing.”PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookMark Weinberg for The New York TimesThese candy apples are spiced with cinnamon and vanilla.What to ReadThe latest John Irving saga is 900 pages of sex, secrets and absent fathers.Where to GoCanada’s Gaspé Peninsula feels like the edge of the world.Now Time to PlayThe pangram from yesterday’s Spelling Bee was intimacy. Here is today’s puzzle.Here’s today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Afternoon activity + A (four letters).And here’s today’s Wordle. After, use our bot to get better.Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow.P.S. Applications are open for the Times Fellowship and the new Local Investigations Fellowship programs.Here’s today’s front page. “The Daily” is about midterm polling. On the Modern Love podcast, 56 years of loving. On “The Run-Up,” is Wisconsin the future of America?Matthew Cullen, Natasha Frost, Lauren Hard, Lauren Jackson, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Tom Wright-Piersanti and Ashley Wu contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at themorning@nytimes.com.Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. More

    • 63 Shares189 Views

      in Elections

      Politician, Thy Name Is Hypocrite

      by

      What’s worse — politicians passing a bad law or politicians passing a bad law while attempting to make it look reasonable with meaningless window dressing?You wind up in the same place, but I’ve gotta go with the jerks who pretend.Let’s take, oh, I don’t know, abortion. Sure, lawmakers who vote to ban it know they’re imposing some voters’ religious beliefs on the whole nation. But maybe they can make it look kinda fair.For instance Mark Ronchetti, who’s running for governor in New Mexico, was “strongly pro-life” until the uproar following the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe. Now, his campaign website says he’s looking for a “middle ground” that would allow abortions “in cases involving rape, incest and when a mother’s life is at risk.”That’s a very popular spin. The public’s rejection of the court’s ruling, plus the stunning vote for abortion rights in a recent statewide referendum in Kansas, has left politicians looking for some way to dodge the anti-choice label. Without, um, actually changing. “I am pro-life, and make no apologies for that. But I also understand that this is a representative democracy,” said Tim Michels, a Republican candidate for Wisconsin governor, when he embraced the rape-and-incest dodge.Mehmet Oz, who’s running for Senate in Pennsylvania, used to support abortion access back when he wanted the world to call him “Dr. Oz.” But now that his day job is being a conservative Republican, he’s “100 percent pro-life.” Nevertheless, he still feels there should be an exception for cases of … rape and incest.We’ve come a long — OK, we’ve come at least a little way from the time, a decade ago, when Todd Akin, the Republican Senate candidate in Missouri, argued it was impossible for a woman to get pregnant from “legitimate rape.” And Akin did lose that race.The backtracking can get pretty creative — or desperate, depending on your perspective. In New Hampshire, Don Bolduc, who’s running for the Senate, was strongly anti-choice before he won the Republican primary. (“Killing babies is unbelievably irresponsible.”)Now, Bolduc the nominee feels a federal abortion ban “doesn’t make sense” and complains that he’s not getting the proper respect for his position. Which is that it’s a state issue. And that his opponent, Senator Maggie Hassan, should “get over it.”These days, it’s hard to sell an across-the-board rule that doesn’t take victims of forced sex into account. In Ohio recently, Senate candidate J.D. Vance tried to stick to his anti-abortion guns, but did back down a smidge when questioned about whether that 10-year-old Ohio rape victim who was taken out of state for an abortion should have been forced to have a baby.And then Vance quickly changed the subject, pointing out that the man accused of raping her was an “illegal alien.” This is an excellent reminder that in this election season there is virtually no problem that Republicans can’t find a way of connecting to the Mexican border.As sympathetic as all rape victims are, the exemption rule would not have much impact. No one knows exactly what proportion of pregnancies are caused by rape and incest, but the number “looks very, very small,” Elizabeth Nash of the Guttmacher Institute told me.And what about, say, a young woman who’s already a teenage mother, working the night shift at a fast-food outlet, whose boyfriend’s condom failed? No suggestion for any special mercy there. You can’t help thinking the big difference is a desire to punish any woman who wanted to have sex.Another popular method of dodging the abortion issue is fiddling with timelines. Blake Masters, the ever-fascinating Arizona Senate candidate, originally opposed abortion from the moment of conception. (“I think it’s demonic.”) Now his revamped website just calls for a national ban once a woman is six months pregnant.And we will stop here very, very briefly to mention that the number of six-month abortions is infinitesimal.Whenever this issue comes up, I remember my school days, which involved Catholic education from kindergarten through college. Wonderful world in many ways, but there wasn’t much concern about keeping religion out of public policy. Especially when it came to abortion. Any attempt to stop the pregnancy from the moment of conception on was murder.That’s still Catholic dogma, you know. Politicians who think they can dodge the issue with their rape-and-incest exceptions appear to ignore the fact that as the church sees it, an embryo that’s the product of a rape still counts as worthy of protection.It took me quite a while to get my head around the abortion issue and I have sympathy for people who have strong religious opposition to ending a pregnancy.Some folks who hold to that dogma try to encourage pregnant women to have their babies by providing counseling, financial support and adoption services, all of which is great as long as the woman in question isn’t being forced to join the program.But anti-abortion laws are basically an attempt to impose one group’s religion on the country as a whole. It’s flat-out unconstitutional, no matter how Justice Samuel Alito feels.And the rape-or-incest exception isn’t humanitarian. It’s a meaningless rhetorical ploy intended to allow politicians to have it both ways.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

    • 125 Shares169 Views

      in Elections

      New Hampshire’s Senate Debate Reveals a Surprising Point of Agreement

      by

      New Hampshire’s first Senate debate on Tuesday featured many jabs and parries that have been partisan staples of debates this year across the country, with Senator Maggie Hassan, a Democrat, and her Republican opponent, Don Bolduc, trading accusations about abortion, energy, inflation and more.But the debate also produced a surprising zone of consensus: Both candidates agreed that the cap on income that is taxed to fund Social Security should be raised. The tax currently applies to the first $147,000 of income and is withdrawn from workers’ paychecks.“Take that cap off and millions of dollars will flow in,” Mr. Bolduc said.Ms. Hassan agreed: “You can ask the wealthiest Americans to pay a little bit more into the system,” she said.While Democrats in Congress have long favored lifting the cap for certain high earners, Republicans have widely opposed the idea, a third rail for many in the party.“If you think taxing the wealthy is going to save Social Security, you’re wrong,” Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, said at a June hearing, after a report that Social Security would be unable to pay full benefits starting in 2035.Republicans have favored cutting benefits or raising the retirement age to keep the hugely popular benefit solvent. Mr. Bolduc, who is on the hard right on some issues, appeared to align with the Bernie Sanders wing of the Democratic Party on Social Security — at least regarding taxes. More

    • 163 Shares169 Views

      in Elections

      The Midterms Look Very Different if You’re Not a Democrat or a Republican

      by

      Ross Douthat, a Times Opinion columnist, hosted an online conversation with Liel Leibovitz, an editor at large for Tablet magazine, and Stephanie Slade, a senior editor at Reason magazine, to discuss how they and other “politically homeless” Americans are thinking about the midterm elections.Ross Douthat: Thanks to you both for serving as representatives of the important part of America that feels legitimately torn between the political parties. Liel, in December of 2021 you wrote an essay about what you called “the Turn,” meaning the feeling of no longer being at home on the political left, of being alienated from the Democratic Party by everything from Covid-era school closures to doctrinaire progressivism.Where does “the Turn” carry you when it comes to electoral politics, facing the (arguably) binary choices of the midterm elections?Liel Leibovitz: Nowhere good, I’m afraid. I’m an immigrant, so I have no real tribal or longstanding loyalties. I came to this country, like so many other immigrants, because I care deeply about two things — freedom of religion and individual liberties. And both parties are messing up when it comes to these two fundamental pillars of American life, from cheering on law enforcement spying on Muslim Americans in the wake of 9/11 to cheering on social media networks for curbing free speech. “The Turn” leads me away from both Democrats and Republicans.Douthat: Stephanie, you’re a libertarian, part of a faction that’s always been somewhat alienated from both parties, despite (usually) having a somewhat stronger connection to the right. This is not, I think it’s fair to say, a particularly libertarian moment in either coalition. What kind of Election Day outcomes are you actually rooting for?Stephanie Slade: This is tough. As someone motivated by a desire for much less government than we currently have, I’m always going to be nervous about the prospect of a Congress that’s willing to rubber-stamp the whims of a president (or vice versa). So I’m an instinctive fan of divided power. But that preference is running smack up against the almost unimaginable abhorrence I feel toward some of the Republicans who would have to win in order for the G.O.P. to retake the Senate.Douthat: Liel, as someone whose relationship to the left and the Democrats has become much more complicated in recent years, what do you see when you look at the Republican alternative?Leibovitz: Sadly, the same thing I see when I look at the Democrats. I see a party too enmeshed in very bad ideas and too interested in power rather than principle. I see a party only too happy to cheer on big government to curtail individual liberties and to let tech oligopolies govern many corners of our lives. The only point of light is how many outliers both these parties seem to be producing these days, which tells me that the left-right dichotomy is truly turning meaningless.Douthat: But political parties are always more interested in power rather than principle, right? And a lot of people look at the current landscape and say, “Sure, there are problems in both parties, but the stakes are just too high not to choose a side.” Especially among liberals, there’s a strong current of frustration with cross-pressured voters. How do you respond to people who can’t understand why you aren’t fully on their side?Slade: Those seeking power certainly want people to feel like the stakes are too high not to go along with their demands. Yes, there are militant partisans on both sides who consider it traitorous of me not to be with them 100 percent. At the same time, there’s a distinction worth keeping in mind between where party activists are and where the average Republican or Democratic voter is. Most Americans are not so wedded to their red-blue identities.Leibovitz: The most corrosive and dispiriting thing is how zero-sum our political conversation has gotten. I look at the Democratic Party and see a lot of energy I love — particularly the old Bernie Sanders spirit, before it was consumed by the apparatus. I look at the Republican Party and see people like Ted Cruz, who are very good at kicking up against some of the party’s worst ideas. There’s hope here and energy, just not if you keep on seeing this game as red versus blue.Douthat: Let me pause there, Liel. What bad ideas do you think Cruz is kicking against?Leibovitz: He represents a kind of energy that doesn’t necessarily gravitate toward the orthodoxies of giving huge corporations the freedom to do as they please. He’s rooted in an understanding of America that balks at the notion that we now have a blob of government-corporate interests dictating every aspect of our lives and that everything — from our medical system to our entertainment — is uniform.Douthat: This is a good example of the gap between how political professionals see things and how individuals see things. There’s no place for the Bernie-Cruz sympathizer in normal political typologies! But you see in polls right now not just Georgians who might back Brian Kemp for governor in Georgia and Raphael Warnock for senator but also Arizonans who might vote for Mark Kelly and Kari Lake — a stranger combination.Stephanie, what do you think about this ticket-splitting impulse?Slade: Some of this isn’t new. Political scientists and pollsters have long observed that people don’t love the idea of any one side having too much power at once. In that, I can’t blame them.Leibovitz: I agree. But it’s still so interesting to me that some of these splits seem just so outlandish, like the number of people who voted for Barack Obama in 2012 and then in 2016 for Donald Trump. That’s telling us that something truly interesting, namely that these tired labels — Democrat, Republican — don’t really mean anything anymore.Slade: We insiders always want to believe that voters are operating from a sort of consistent philosophical blueprint. But we’re seeing a lot more frustration-based voting, backlash voting. This can be fine, in the sense that there’s plenty in our world to be frustrated about, but my fear is that it can tip over into a politics thoroughly motivated by hatreds. And that is scary.Douthat: Right. For instance, in the realm of pundits, there’s an assumption that Republican candidates should be assessed based on how all-in they are for election conspiracy theories and that swing voters should recoil from the conspiracists. That seems to be happening in Pennsylvania, where the more conspiratorial Republican, Doug Mastriano, seems to be doing worse in his governor’s race than Dr. Oz is in the Senate campaign. But in Arizona, Lake is the more conspiratorial candidate, and she appears to be a stronger candidate than Blake Masters is in the Senate race.Which suggests that swing voters are often using a different compass than the political class.Leibovitz: Let me inject a very big dose of — dare I say it? — hope here. Yes, there’s a lot of hate and a lot of fear going on. But if you look at these volatile patterns you’re describing, you’re seeing something else, which is a yearning for a real vision. Voters are gravitating toward candidates who are telling them coherent stories that make sense. To the political classes, these stories sometimes sound conspiratorial or crazy or way removed from the Beltway reality. But to normal Americans, they resonate.Douthat: Or, Stephanie, are they just swinging back and forth based on the price of gas, and all larger narratives are pundit impositions on more basic pocketbook impulses?Slade: Yeah, I’m a little more split on this. Economic fundamentals matter a lot, as do structural factors (like that the president’s party usually does poorly in midterms, irrespective of everything else).Douthat: But then do you, as an unusually well-informed, cross-pressured American, feel electing Republicans in the House or Senate will help with the economic situation, with inflation?Slade: It’s a debate among libertarians whether divided government is actually a good thing. Or is the one thing the two parties can agree on that they should spend ever more money? I don’t have a ton of hope that a Republican-controlled House or Senate will do much good. On the other hand, the sheer economic insanity of the Biden years — amounting to approving more than $4 trillion of new borrowing, to say nothing of the unconstitutional eviction moratorium and student loan forgiveness — is mind-boggling to me, so almost anything that could put the brakes on some of this stuff seems worth trying.Douthat: Spoken like a swing voter. Liel, you aren’t a libertarian, but your particular profile — Jewish immigrant writer put off by progressive extremism — does resemble an earlier cross-pressured group, the original 1970s neoconservatives. Over time, a lot of neoconservatives ended up comfortably on the right (at least until recently) because they felt welcomed by the optimism of Ronald Reagan’s presidency.Do you think that the toxic side of the G.O.P. is a permanent obstacle to completing a similar move rightward for people alienated by progressivism?Leibovitz: Not to get too biblical, but I view Trump less as a person and more as a plague, a reminder from above to mend our ways, or else. And many voters mortified by the sharp left turn of the Democratic Party are feeling, like me, politically homeless right now.But politically homeless is not politically hopeless. The way out for us isn’t by focusing on which of these two broken homes is better but on which ideas we still hold dear. And here I agree with Stephanie. Stopping the economic insanity — from rampant spending to stopping oil production and driving up gas prices to giving giant corporations a free pass — is key. So is curbing the notion that it’s OK to believe that the government can decide that some categories, like race or gender or sexual orientation, make a person a member of a protected class and that it’s OK for the government to adjudicate which of these classes is more worthy of protection.Douthat: Let’s end by getting specific. Irrespective of party, is there a candidate on the ballot this fall who you are especially eager to see win and one that you are especially eager to see lose?Leibovitz: I’m a New Yorker, so anyone who helped turn this state — and my beloved hometown — into the teetering mess it is right now deserves to go. Lee Zeldin seems like the sort of out-of-left-field candidate who can be transformative, especially considering the tremendous damage done by the progressives in the state.Douthat: OK, you’ve given me a Republican candidate you want to see win, is there one you’d like to see fail?Leibovitz: I know Pennsylvania is a very important battleground state, and the Democrats have put forth a person who appears ill equipped for this responsibility, but it’s very, very hard to take a Dr. Oz candidacy seriously.Slade: I spend a lot of my time following the rising illiberal conservative movement, variously known as national conservatives, postliberals, the New Right and so on. What distinguishes them is their desire not just to acquire government power but to wield it to destroy their enemies. That goes against everything I believe and everything I believe America stands for. The person running for office right now who seems most representative of that view is J.D. Vance, who once told a reporter that “our people hate the right people.” I would like to see that sentiment lose soundly in November, wherever it’s on the ballot. (Not that I’m saying I think it actually will lose in Ohio.)Douthat: No predictions here, just preferences. Is there someone you really want to win?Slade: Like a good libertarian, can I say I wish they could all lose?Douthat: Not really, because my last question bestows on both of you a very unlibertarian power. You are each the only swing voter in America, and you get to choose the world of 2023: a Democratic-controlled Congress, a Republican-controlled Congress or the wild card, Republicans taking one house but not the other. How do you use this power?Leibovitz: Mets fan here, so wild card is an apt metaphor: Take the split, watch them both lose in comical and heartbreaking ways and pray for a better team next election.Slade: If forced to decide, I’d split the baby, then split the baby again: Republicans take the House, Democrats hold the Senate.Douthat: A Solomonic conclusion, indeed. Thanks so much to you both.Ross Douthat is a Times columnist. Liel Leibovitz is an editor at large for Tablet magazine and a host of its weekly culture podcast, “Unorthodox,” and daily Talmud podcast, “Take One.” Stephanie Slade (@sladesr) is a senior editor at Reason magazine.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

    • 50 Shares159 Views

      in Elections

      Has Polling Broken Politics?

      by

      Election Day is just three weeks away — and that means it’s peak polling season. For political hobbyists, polling is the new sports betting: gamifying elections to predict outcomes that haven’t always proven accurate. If the 2016 election revealed anything, it’s that polls are sometimes off — very off. So as America faces another high-stakes election, how much faith should we put in them?[You can listen to this episode of “The Argument” on Apple, Spotify, Amazon Music, or Google or wherever you get your podcasts.]On today’s episode, Jane Coaston brings together two experts to diagnose what we’re getting wrong in both how we conduct polls, and how we interpret the data they give us. Margie Omero is a principal at the Democratic polling firm GBAO. Nate Silver, who prefers to call himself a “forecaster” rather than a pollster, is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. Together, the two tackle how polling both reflects and affects the national political mood, and whether our appetite for election predictions is doing democracy more harm than good.(A full transcript of the episode will be available midday on the Times website.)Getty ImagesThoughts? Email us at argument@nytimes.com or leave us a voice mail message at (347) 915-4324. We want to hear what you’re arguing about with your family, your friends and your frenemies. (We may use excerpts from your message in a future episode.)By leaving us a message, you are agreeing to be governed by our reader submission terms and agreeing that we may use and allow others to use your name, voice and message.“The Argument” is produced by Phoebe Lett, Vishakha Darbha and Derek Arthur. Edited by Alison Bruzek and Anabel Bacon. With original music by Isaac Jones and Pat McCusker; mixing by Pat McCusker. Fact-checking by Kate Sinclair, Michelle Harris and Mary Marge Locker. Audience strategy by Shannon Busta with editorial support from Kristina Samulewski. More