Politics and Government

Subterms

    More stories

    • 100 Shares129 Views

      in Elections

      Markets Are Ready for Stability in U.K. Government

      by

      Investors appeared heartened by the prospect of Rishi Sunak, Britain’s former chancellor, becoming prime minister — but he must still solve huge economic problems.The front-runner.Isabel Infantes/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesMeet Britain’s (likely) new leader After weeks of turmoil, British politics appears headed for some stability, as Rishi Sunak, the former chancellor of the Exchequer, is poised to succeed the ill-fated Liz Truss as prime minister. The British pound and government bonds rose a bit on the news — but the economic problems that trouble the country aren’t likely to be cured quickly.Sunak has the numbers, with over 164 Conservative Party lawmakers backing him for prime minister as of Monday. (Conservative Party rules require candidates to have at least 100 pledged supporters to be considered.) The only remaining challenger, Penny Mordaunt, trails with roughly 90 pledged supporters, she says. But the clock is ticking. She has until 2 p.m. London time on Monday to reach the needed support threshold.Sunak’s most potent challenger was Boris Johnson, the former prime minister who was ousted after his own cabinet ministers — including Sunak, then chancellor — quit in protest over a series of scandals. Johnson pulled out of the race on Sunday, despite claiming to have the support of 102 lawmakers (with the BBC estimating he had just 57 public backers).Investors expect relative predictability from a Sunak government. During the race for prime minister this summer, Sunak defended his plans for higher taxes as fiscally responsible, compared with Truss’s promises of tax cuts to spur economic growth. The markets’ virulent reaction to Truss’s plans, which led to sweeping efforts by the Bank of England to prop up the government bonds known as gilts, suggest investors favor a less revolutionary approach, like what Sunak has promised.Investors appear particularly relieved that Johnson — a notably divisive figure in Britain and abroad, who still faces a parliamentary inquiry into whether he lied to lawmakers about breaking Covid lockdown rules — is out of the running.But Britain still faces enormous challenges. The Bank of England remains likely to raise interest rates to tamp down inflation that has reached 10 percent; Britain is still facing a huge cost-of-living crisis, owing largely to soaring energy costs; and homeowners face significantly higher mortgage payments. On Friday, Moody’s downgraded Britain’s credit rating outlook to “negative” from “stable,” citing weak growth and “unpredictability” in policymaking.Sunak must also corral a Conservative Party that has splintered into several warring factions. Hard-right lawmakers favor cracking down on immigration and taking a hard line against the E.U. over the checking of goods crossing the trade border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. He may also face rebellion from Johnson loyalists who blame him for the downfall of the former prime minister.HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING Tesla cuts prices for key models in China. The electric carmaker has reduced the baseline prices for the Model 3 and the Model Y by as much as 9 percent, Reuters reports. The move appears to be tied to slowing demand in China, the world’s biggest E.V. market, and growing competition from domestic rivals.The Trump family business goes on trial on Monday. The Manhattan district attorney’s office has accused the Trump Organization of tax fraud and other crimes, focusing on undeclared perks for executives. Among the star witnesses of the trial will be Allen Weisselberg, the company’s former C.F.O.Japan struggles to prop up the yen. The currency continued to slide against the dollar on Monday, despite what investors suspect was another intervention by the Bank of England to curb volatility. Japan is in a difficult bind because it is trying to maintain ultralow interest rates, which could bolster the yen, to spur economic growth.Chip makers struggle with tighter U.S. restrictions on China. YMTC of China has reportedly asked American employees in key roles to leave, to comply with new rules from Washington that require U.S. citizens to get permission to work at Chinese fabrication plants. And TSMC of Taiwan is said to have stopped work for a burgeoning Chinese semiconductor start-up.Brace for a potential “tripledemic” this year. With pandemic lockdowns mostly in the past, experts predict a resurgence in Covid cases this winter — along with more traditional outbreaks of flu and, perhaps, of respiratory syncytial virus. “It’s going to be a rough winter,” one infectious disease specialist told The Times.An “even more dominant” Xi China released third-quarter economic data on Monday, laying bare the deep challenges facing the country days after Xi Jinping was appointed to an unprecedented third term as leader.Gross domestic product in the world’s second-biggest economy grew 3.9 percent compared to the same period last year. That is higher than expected, but short of the full-year target of 5.5 percent — China’s lowest annual target in three decades. The authorities unexpectedly delayed publication of the data last week.Financial markets tumbled. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong closed down more than 6 percent at a 14-year low on Monday, reflecting anxieties about the worsening economy, and after Xi stacked Communist Party leadership positions with loyalists. Chinese tech stocks listed in the U.S. are the worst performers there premarket, led by the e-commerce companies Pinduoduo and JD.com. Xi’s move to tighten control was widely expected, but it underscores his ambition to accelerate China’s rise as a military and technological superpower, despite the potential economic damage, write The Times reports. That could have big implications for business.“He was dominant already and is even more dominant now,” Dali Yang, a political science professor at the University of Chicago, said of Xi. A newly energized Beijing is likely to remain defiant in the face of international criticism of its hard-line behavior. It still wants to become the pre-eminent military force in the region and to assert its claim over Taiwan. At the congress, Xi said China would promote its own initiatives to solve global development and security problems.Unchecked power could slow economic growth. Xi’s exceptionally stringent approach of imposing mass lockdowns and quarantines to eradicate Covid-19 outbreaks has throttled consumer spending and hit supply chains. The hugely important property market is also in a slump after he sought to curb speculation in the sector.The geopolitical divide between the U.S. and China is widening. President Biden has waged a crackdown on China’s access to U.S. technology — in particular, chips and chip production — and the threat of Russia-like economic sanctions looms. Some of the Western world’s biggest corporations are now evaluating how to reduce the business they do in China. Goldman Sachs, though, hasn’t closed the door. On Monday, it announced a joint venture in China to boost investment in local infrastructure-related real estate assets.Critics come after S.B.F. for his stance on crypto rules Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of the crypto exchange FTX, got skewered by his crypto colleagues after proposing voluntary digital asset standards to better protect consumers last week — and he’s still reeling from the experience. “Whelp, that was an interesting few days,” the billionaire wrote on Twitter on Sunday, responding to complainants denouncing him as “S.B.F. — The Regulator.”Industry insiders are growing wary of S.B.F. The head of a sprawling global empire mostly built beyond the reach of U.S. regulators, the 30-year-old billionaire has donated about $40 million to various PACs and candidates in the 2022 election cycle and become a fixture on Capitol Hill. Some advocates for decentralized finance have grown increasingly concerned about Bankman-Fried’s high-profile support for a newish Senate Agriculture Committee bill on digital assets, which they feel could set back the DeFi movement. Bankman-Fried also got into hot water for suggesting that DeFi adopt “know your customer” mandates to appease authorities. Opponents say this would undermine the decentralized crypto ethos, and would force DeFi firms to adopt rules associated with traditional finance. Some users and influential industry voices, meanwhile, have called for a boycott of FTX.The crypto exec relented after the onslaught. S.B.F. thanked his critics for their input, which he used to revise some of his proposals. Among the most prominent was Erik Vorhees, the libertarian-leaning founder of the platform ShapeShift, who argued that DeFi should remain distanced from regulatory oversight, as it “transcends humans and their political machinations.”“The devil is in the details,” Kristin Smith, the executive director of the Blockchain Association, an industry trade group representing about 100 companies, told DealBook. The industry agrees that centralized exchanges are ready for regulation, she said, but DeFi is new and nuanced and regulating this area would require more time. Translation: S.B.F. should stop speaking for DeFi.Bankman-Fried thinks congressional action is coming. “It’s important to protect customers and to get federal oversight,” he wrote in an email to DealBook, adding that it’s equally important that code remain free. There’s still “some chance” that a narrow crypto bill that leaves DeFi untouched gets congressional approval after the November election, he predicted. “I think that, if it’s well-drafted (which I’m optimistic it will be!), it would make sense to pass it this year.”“This is a moment of truth for education. How we respond to this will determine not only our recovery, but our nation’s standing in the world.” — Miguel Cardona, the secretary of education, warning that a pandemic-fueled drop in the math and reading scores of U.S. students has deeper economic and societal implications.The week ahead What’s on the agenda this week? It will be a busy one for earnings — big banks in Europe, plus Big Tech in the U.S. We also have interest-rate-setting decisions and economic data releases.Tuesday: The Saudi Arabia-sponsored “Davos in the Desert” begins. Despite tensions between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. over oil, many U.S. executives still plan to attend.Wednesday: Meta reports earnings. An advertising slump and new privacy rules from Apple (which reports on Thursday) are expected to have eaten further into its revenue, which in the second quarter dropped for the first time since the company went public.Thursday: Credit Suisse presents a plan to fix itself. A broad strategic review is set to conclude with a restructuring that will likely involve thousands of layoffs and an overhaul of its investment bank. Elsewhere: The U.S. reports third-quarter G.D.P., and it’s rates decision day for the European Central Bank.Friday: deadline day for Elon Musk and his $44 billion Twitter deal. Last week, the Washington Post reported that he planned to cut Twitter’s staff by as much as 75 percent after taking the company private. In Asia, the Bank of Japan wraps up a two-day rate-setting meeting where no change in policy is expected.THE SPEED READ DealsMagic Johnson is reportedly in talks to buy a minority stake in the Las Vegas Raiders N.F.L. team. (Semafor)The banks tasked with financing Elon Musk’s bid for Twitter are expected to keep the $13 billion worth of debt on their books and try to sell it later, rather than immediately booking a $500 million loss. (WSJ)Amazon will take a stake in the parent of Hawaiian Airlines as part of a cargo-hauling deal. (Bloomberg)PolicyThe Republican National Committee sued Google, accusing it of directing the party’s political emails to users’ spam folders. (Axios)The White House is hoping that plans to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve will spur new domestic oil production, but energy companies are skeptical. (WSJ)Best of the restIsraelis and their adopted feral dogs — what could go wrong? (WSJ)“Rebranding is hard but there is no excuse for disemvowelling.” (FT)The British economy is reeling, but the country’s whisky makers are having a banner year. (NYT)We’d like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com. More

    • 38 Shares149 Views

      in Elections

      A Republican Advantage

      by

      As headlines shift in the weeks before the midterms, so do voters’ top concerns.Two weeks before November’s midterm elections, many voter surveys suggest Republicans are gaining momentum toward retaking one or both chambers of Congress.Every major Senate race, except for Georgia’s, has been trending toward Republicans. There are even warning signs for Democrats in House districts in Oregon and Rhode Island where Republicans are rarely competitive. And now, more voters say they intend to vote for Republicans instead of Democrats for Congress in their districts.In such a polarized country, understanding how one party can gain an advantage so quickly can sometimes be hard. In this case, the explanation is straightforward: It’s about the issues on the minds of voters.Over the summer, the dominant headlines and resulting public debate were focused on issues that helped Democrats, like abortion, gun violence and threats to democracy. These issues helped Democrats stay highly competitive, despite President Biden’s low approval ratings and a tendency for the sitting president’s party to get drubbed in midterm elections.But the spotlight on those matters is fading. Voters are less frequently citing them as top concerns while expressing worries about the economy, crime and immigration — issues that tend to favor Republicans. In a New York Times/Siena College poll released last week, the share of voters citing the economy, inflation, crime or immigration as the “most important problem” facing the country increased to 52 percent, up 14 points from a July version of the poll. The share citing the Democratic-friendly issues of abortion, democracy or guns dropped to 14 percent from 26 percent.Attitudes in fluxLooking back, it’s easy to see why the mood of the nation’s electorate has shifted.Our July poll was taken just a couple weeks after the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. Abortion was in the headlines nearly every day, as the nation grappled with the fallout and state bans went into effect. But relevant news developments have slowed, and that affects the public’s attention. Google searches for “abortion” are now at about the level they were in early spring, before the ruling hit the headlines.In last week’s Times/Siena poll, just 5 percent of voters said that abortion was the most important problem facing the country.Other issues playing to Democrats’ strengths had similar trajectories. The House committee investigating the Capitol attack held eight public hearings in June and July, but only one after Labor Day (and it was on Oct. 13, after we conducted our most recent poll). Firearms restrictions are another core issue for Democrats that they often highlight in response to gun violence. The Times cataloged at least nine mass shootings in the two months before our July poll, including the horrific massacres at a grocery store in Buffalo and at an elementary school in Uvalde, Texas. The spate of such mass shootings has, fortunately, faded as well.Now on voters’ mindsEconomic concerns are resurgent. The summer’s falling gas prices and somewhat optimistic inflation news have given way to renewed concerns about the rising cost of living and drops in the stock market.Crime and immigration are in a somewhat different category. These are longstanding problems, but they don’t usually dominate the front pages alongside major news stories, save for mass shootings. Republicans have nonetheless elevated them as campaign issues, including with high-profile gambits like the decision by Florida’s Gov. Ron DeSantis to fly migrants to the liberal bastion of Martha’s Vineyard.The swing votersIf you’re an ideologically consistent voter who agrees with your party on almost every issue, it can be hard to believe that other voters can be so fickle. But millions of Americans — perhaps even most of them — hold conflicting views. They can be drawn to different candidates or parties, depending on what they consider most important in a particular election.Take abortion: If you believe the polls that 60 percent of Americans think it should be mostly legal, then a huge share of the voters who back Republicans in any given election must support legal abortion. These voters presumably back Republicans for another reason, whether it’s the economy and taxes or an issue like immigration. But if abortion is at the top of their minds, perhaps a sliver of them will defect.In polling over the summer, some did. But in the more recent surveys, many of them came back to the Republican fold.More midterms newsA shrinking white majority is a shared feature of the congressional districts held by Republicans who rejected Donald Trump’s 2020 defeat.The Republican candidate for New York governor, Lee Zeldin, agreed to a single debate set for tomorrow against Gov. Kathy Hochul.To win Ohio’s Senate race, Representative Tim Ryan is running as a Democrat who doesn’t have much in common with his party.THE LATEST NEWSBritainBoris Johnson led Britain until early last month.Toby Melville/ReutersBoris Johnson pulled out of the race to become Britain’s prime minister, making his former finance minister, Rishi Sunak, the favorite.Sunak’s financial agenda made him unpopular with his Conservative Party. But after weeks of economic chaos, it could be the reason he gets the job.Britain’s new prime minister could be announced as early as today. Follow our updates here.InternationalXi Jinping, China’s leader, appointed loyalists to top government jobs, giving him nearly absolute power.The authorities in Brazil, which holds a presidential runoff on Sunday, have granted its elections chief the power to remove online misinformation.The Ukrainian military is rapidly learning how to shoot down the kind of drones that Russia has begun deploying in recent weeks.Other Big StoriesU.S. students recorded deep declines in math and a dip in reading on a national exam, the clearest picture yet of the pandemic’s impact on education.A Vermont town’s water superintendent resigned after admitting that he had been lowering fluoride levels for more than a decade.A solar eclipse will be visible tomorrow across Europe and Asia.OpinionsGail Collins and Bret Stephens discuss British politics and the Republicans’ midterm advantage.Terms like “queer” and “L.G.B.T.Q.” are intended to be inclusive. But not everyone they’re meant to include feels that way, says Pamela Paul.The U.S. should make pandemic preparedness a more permanent priority, like national defense, Dr. Craig Spencer says.Retaliating against Saudi Arabia for cutting oil production would only hurt American consumers, Ellen Wald argues.MORNING READSMichelle Groskopf for The New York TimesDecades of addiction: In a new memoir, the “Friends” actor Matthew Perry estimated he has spent $9 million trying to get sober.Well: Sex therapy is misunderstood. Here’s what it actually entails.Quiz time: Take our latest news quiz and share your score (the average was 8.6).Metropolitan diary: A helpful man welcomes a stranger to the neighborhood.A Times classic: What really killed President William Henry Harrison?Advice from Wirecutter: These inexpensive screen protectors will keep your iPhone safe.Lives Lived: All four of Louis Gigante’s brothers were mobsters. He chose a different path as a priest and a developer who helped revive the South Bronx. Gigante died at 90.SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETICThe World Series is set: Both the Astros and Phillies clinched spots yesterday, setting up a battle between juggernaut Houston and upstart Philadelphia. The Phillies star Bryce Harper is building his legacy in this season’s playoffs, The Times’s Tyler Kepner writes.Back on the field: The Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa led Miami to a 16-10 win over the Steelers last night in his first game back since a scary concussion three weeks ago. Brady and Rodgers in disarray: Two of the N.F.L.’s best quarterbacks — Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers — find themselves mired in 3-4 starts early in the season. For Green Bay, it’s a disaster. For Tampa Bay, it leaves a recent Super Bowl champion wondering whether it can even make the playoffs.ARTS AND IDEAS EJ Hill under his roller coaster.Cindy Schultz for The New York TimesThe art of the rideMost people look at roller coasters and see fun, or fear. EJ Hill sees art. The rides have inspired his artwork — photography, painting, sculpture and performances — for years. His latest exhibit, “Brake Run Helix,” will feature a working roller coaster that runs through the inside of the Massachusetts Museum of Contemporary Art, in the Berkshires. It opens Sunday.Hill, who is Black and queer, hopes the ride will help visitors connect with the “bodily threat” that he feels anytime he leaves his home. “There are things that I believe you have to feel to understand,” Hill said. “Certain ideas can be communicated via language and land really well; other things you have to feel in your gut.”PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookChris Simpson for The New York TimesBrunswick stew, a hearty fall dish from the South, combines tomatoes, corn, beans and shredded chicken.TheaterA new show from Jill Sobule, best known for her 1995 hit song “I Kissed a Girl,” is part autobiography, part rock concert.TravelA guide to the beaches, bars and bookshops of Santa Cruz, Calif.Now Time to PlayThe pangram from yesterday’s Spelling Bee was painful. Here is today’s puzzle.Here’s today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Tall and thin (5 letters).And here’s today’s Wordle. After, use our bot to get better.Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow.P.S. Vox named Zeynep Tufekci, a Times Opinion columnist, to its inaugural list of 50 people working to make the future better.Here’s today’s front page.“The Daily” is about election denial. “Popcast” remembers Loretta Lynn.Matthew Cullen, Lauren Hard, Lauren Jackson, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Tom Wright-Piersanti and Ashley Wu contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at themorning@nytimes.com.Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. More

    • 138 Shares189 Views

      in Elections

      Brazil’s Polls Were Wrong. Now the Right Wants to Criminalize Them.

      by

      President Jair Bolsonaro and conservative lawmakers in Brazil are trying to make it illegal to publish polls that later do not match the election results.BRASÍLIA — In the first round of Brazil’s closely watched elections this month, the polls were off the mark. They significantly underestimated the support for the far-right incumbent, President Jair Bolsonaro, and other conservative candidates across the country.Many on the right were furious, criticizing the pollsters as out of touch with the Brazilian electorate.That response was expected. What happened next was not.At the urging of Mr. Bolsonaro, some of Brazil’s leaders are now trying to make it a crime to incorrectly forecast an election.Brazil’s House of Representatives has fast-tracked a bill that would criminalize publishing a poll that is later shown to fall outside its margin of error. The House, which is controlled by Mr. Bolsonaro’s allies, is expected to vote and pass the measure in the coming days.The bill’s final shape and fate is unclear. House leaders have suggested they may soften the legislation, and its prospects in the Senate, where opponents of Mr. Bolsonaro are in the majority, appear far less certain.Still, whatever the measure’s fate, the proposal and other efforts to investigate pollsters for their recent miscalculations are part of a broader narrative pushed by Mr. Bolsonaro and his allies, without evidence, that Brazil’s political establishment and the left are trying to rig the election against him.As Brazil prepares to vote in a presidential runoff on Oct. 30, the surveys continue to show Mr. Bolsonaro trailing his left-wing rival, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a former president, though the race seems to be tightening.Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva celebrating the results of the first round of elections in São Paulo earlier this month.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesFor his part, Mr. Bolsonaro has taken to calling the polling firms “liars,” claimed that their mistakes swung up to three million votes to Mr. da Silva in the first round, and has advocated for the firms to face consequences. “Not for getting it wrong, OK? An error is one thing,” he said. “It’s for the crimes they committed.”He has not said what crimes he believes were committed.The Brazilian Association of Pollsters said in a statement that it was “outraged” at the attempts to criminalize surveys that turn out to be inaccurate.“Starting this type of investigation during the runoff campaign period, when the polling companies are carrying out their work, demonstrates another clear attempt to impede scientific research,” the group said.Polling firms added that their work was not to predict elections, but to provide a snapshot of voters’ intentions at the time a survey is conducted.The bill in Congress is not the only effort to target pollsters. Following a request from Mr. Bolsonaro’s campaign, Brazil’s justice minister ordered the federal police to open an investigation into polling firms over their surveys before the first election round. And Brazil’s federal antitrust agency opened its own inquiry into some of the nation’s top polling institutions for possible collusion.Alexandre de Moraes, a Supreme Court justice and Brazil’s elections chief, quickly ordered both of those investigations halted, saying that they lacked jurisdiction and that they appeared to be doing the president’s political bidding. In turn, Mr. Moraes ordered Brazil’s election agency to investigate whether Mr. Bolsonaro was trying to use his power over federal agencies inappropriately.Mr. Moraes has emerged as the top check on Mr. Bolsonaro’s power over the past year, drawing criticism at times for measures that, according to experts in law and government, represent a repressive turn for Brazil’s top court.Among other moves, he has jailed five people without a trial for posts on social media that he said attacked Brazil’s institutions. On Thursday, election officials further expanded his power by giving him unilateral authority to suspend social media platforms in Brazil that do not quickly comply with his orders to remove misinformation.Alexandre de Moraes in Brasília before the first round of elections earlier this month.Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesMr. Moraes and Brazil’s Senate appear poised to protect polling firms from measures that target their surveys.Yet repeated claims that pollsters are corrupt could further weaken their ability to provide the best possible gauge of public opinion. Some of Mr. Bolsonaro’s top advisers have urged his supporters to ignore survey takers in order to sabotage their results.“Do not respond to any of them until the end of the election!!! That way, it’ll be certain from the start that any of their results are fraudulent,” Ciro Nogueira, Mr. Bolsonaro’s chief of staff, wrote on Twitter. “Was their absurd screw-up criminal? Only a deep investigation will tell.”The top polling firms had forecast that Mr. Bolsonaro would receive roughly 36 percent of the vote in the first round. He received 43.2 percent, a seven-point gap that was outside virtually all polls’ margins of error.Their performance was even worse in many down-ballot races. In Rio de Janeiro, the polls showed that the conservative candidate for governor was ahead by about 9 percentage points. Instead, he won by 31 points.In São Paulo, some polls showed that a left-wing candidate for Senate was ahead of his opponent by 14 percentage points heading into the first election round. Instead, a right-wing candidate won by nearly that same margin — a swing of 28 percentage points from what the pre-election polls had found.The polling firms have blamed a variety of factors for their flawed forecasts, including outdated census data that hampered their ability to survey a statistically representative sample of voters. The firms said their polls were also undercut because a larger-than-expected wave of voters switched their ballots to Mr. Bolsonaro from third-party candidates at the last minute.Some polling firms also said they believed that many conservative voters were unwilling to answer their surveys.The share of older voters far exceeded expectations, potentially because of a government announcement this year that voting was a new way to establish proof of life and keep retirement benefits active. Polls on the eve of the election showed that older voters supported Mr. Bolsonaro over Mr. da Silva.Brazil is far from the only country where polls struggle to give an accurate picture of the electorate, particularly the strength of conservative support.In 2016, polls in the United States did not accurately forecast the support for Donald J. Trump, and the firms gave similar reasons for the miss, including that some right-wing voters were unwilling to answer surveys.President Jair Bolsonaro in São Paulo earlier this month.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesThe credibility of Brazil’s polling firms was damaged after the election’s first round, and some journalists have become more hesitant to share surveys ahead of Sunday’s runoff.Ricardo Barros, a conservative congressman who is helping to push the bill to criminalize faulty polls, said the legislation would force polling companies to be more careful with their findings. Under the proposed law, only polls that err outside their margin of error would face liability.“If you’re not sure of the outcome, then place a margin of error of 10 percent,” he said. “It loses credibility, but it doesn’t misinform voters. The problem is that today it’s always being presented as an absolute truth.”Lawmakers in both the House and Senate have also gathered enough signatures to open congressional investigations into the polling firms, although the leader of the Senate is expected to move to block that chamber’s investigation.Alexandre Cordeiro Macedo, the head of Brazil’s federal antitrust agency and an appointee of Mr. Bolsonaro, tried to go further than Mr. Barros in taking aim at polling firms.Before Mr. Moraes intervened and stopped the inquiry, Mr. Cordeiro Macedo had accused top polling companies of collusion based on what he said was the statistical improbability that they all had underestimated Mr. Bolsonaro’s support by such a significant margin. He claimed that the scenario was about as likely as winning the lottery several times.But Alexandre Patriota, a statistics professor at the University of São Paulo, disputed that, saying proving collusion based solely on that single measure would be nearly impossible.“Even if all the institutes got it wrong in the same way, this is not an indication of a cartel,” he said. “To have a hint of malice, you need something more than numbers.” More

    • 138 Shares99 Views

      in Elections

      As Israel Votes, Again, Netanyahu Pins Hopes on the Far Right

      by

      To regain power, Benjamin Netanyahu, the longest-serving Israeli prime minister, will most likely need the support of Itamar Ben-Gvir, a far-right leader with a history of extreme views.TEL AVIV — He was barred as a teenager from serving in the Israeli Army because he was considered too extremist. He admires a hard-line rabbi who wanted to strip Arab Israelis of their citizenship. Until recently, he hung a portrait in his home of Baruch Goldstein, who shot dead 29 Palestinians in a West Bank mosque in 1994.Itamar Ben-Gvir, a rising far-right lawmaker, has long occupied the fringes of Israeli politics and been widely vilified for his extreme views. But now, as Israel prepares for its fifth election since 2019, and with the polls predicting a deadlock, he is likely to become a major player in Benjamin Netanyahu’s bid to regain power in the vote on Nov. 1.At a recent election rally for Mr. Ben-Gvir in southern Tel Aviv, supporters of Mr. Netanyahu were cheering on a candidate they knew would be critical for him.“We are from the same side,” said Limor Inbar, 58, an activist from Mr. Netanyahu’s Likud party. “We share the same ideology.”Israeli voters face a choice between Mr. Netanyahu’s bloc of right-wing parties — including Mr. Ben-Gvir’s far-right alliance — and the governing coalition of right-wing, centrist and left-wing parties, led by Prime Minister Yair Lapid, that share little more than opposition to Mr. Netanyahu. Mr. Lapid’s alliance lost its parliamentary majority in the summer, a year after ousting Mr. Netanyahu, giving him another chance at power.A Ben-Gvir election poster last week in Jerusalem.Avishag Shaar-Yashuv for The New York TimesAt the last election, in 2021, Mr. Ben-Gvir’s alliance only scraped into Parliament. This time, polls suggest it will be the second biggest group in Mr. Netanyahu’s bloc, and the third largest in the country.While right-wing dominance of Israeli politics is not new, Mr. Ben-Gvir’s rise illustrates how Mr. Netanyahu’s camp within the Israeli right has become more extreme and religious.As his traditional allies abandoned him, Mr. Netanyahu — though secular himself — has been forced to forge a stronger bond with ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties. And though wary of appearing in public with them, he has become more reliant on ultranationalists like Mr. Ben-Gvir.Three decades ago, Likud, then a more traditional conservative party, shunned Mr. Ben-Gvir’s ideological forbear, Meir Kahane, for being too extreme. Today, Likud has moved further to the right, Mr. Ben-Gvir has cooled his support for Mr. Kahane, and Mr. Netanyahu has few other potential partners.If Mr. Ben-Gvir helps return Mr. Netanyahu to power, the government will be dependent on a lawmaker who hopes to upend Israel’s judicial system, grant legal immunity to Israeli soldiers who shoot at Palestinians, and deport rival lawmakers he accuses of terrorism.Less than two years after entering Parliament, “Ben-Gvir is the most important figure in the Israeli right wing after Netanyahu,” said Nadav Eyal, a leading Israeli political commentator.“We are from the same side,” said Limor Inbar, 58, left, an activist from Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party. “We share the same ideology.”Avishag Shaar-Yashuv for The New York Times“He is not only popular with right-wing voters,” Mr. Eyal said. “He’s getting out the votes of people who never voted before.”For more than a quarter-century, Mr. Ben-Gvir, 46, was relevant only on Israel’s far-right fringe. In 1995, he was filmed holding an emblem ripped from the car of Yitzhak Rabin, the Israeli prime minister who signed the Oslo peace accords.“Just as we got to this emblem, we’ll get to Rabin,” he said at the time. Mr. Rabin was later assassinated; Mr. Ben-Gvir had no connection to his murder.Mr. Ben-Gvir is an admirer of Meir Kahane, an Israeli American extremist assassinated in 1990 who wanted to strip Arab Israelis of their citizenship, segregate Israeli public space, and ban marriage between Jews and non-Jews.Mr. Ben-Gvir has often attended memorial events for Mr. Kahane, and has several convictions for incitement to racism and support for a terrorist group, as Mr. Kahane’s party is designated in Israel. A lawyer, Mr. Ben-Gvir has represented followers of Mr. Kahane and settlers accused of violence.Mr. Ben-Gvir in Israel’s Supreme Court this month.Avishag Shaar-Yashuv for The New York TimesToday, Mr. Ben-Gvir still calls Mr. Kahane “a hero,” but has distanced himself from Mr. Kahane’s most extreme policies.“I have no problem, of course, with the minorities here,” he said in a brief voice message, after declining a full interview. “But whoever is a terrorist, whoever commits terror — and anyone who wants jihad and to annihilate Jews, and not only that, also hurts Arabs — I have a problem with him.”In other interviews, he has said he has become more moderate.The portrait of Mr. Goldstein, who killed the Palestinians in 1994, no longer hangs in Mr. Ben-Gvir’s home. He regrets the episode involving Mr. Rabin’s car, he said in September. If he had actually “got to” Mr. Rabin himself, he would have only shouted at him, Mr. Ben-Gvir added.He has told his supporters to chant, “Death to terrorists,” instead of, “Death to Arabs.” He does not support expelling all Arabs, only those he calls terrorists.“This is a Jewish country,” he said in his voice message. But, he added, “I also want this country to be a safe country for all its citizens.”In May 2021, Mr. Ben-Gvir’s visit to a Palestinian area of East Jerusalem, Sheikh Jarrah, exacerbated unrest in the neighborhood that contributed to an 11-day war between Israel and militants in Gaza. This month, he returned to the neighborhood and encouraged the police to open fire on Palestinian stone-throwers.Avishag Shaar-Yashuv for The New York TimesThe sincerity of Mr. Ben-Gvir’s shift was placed in doubt in September by a senior member of his party, Jewish Power. In a leaked video, that party member, Almog Cohen, appeared to present his leader’s moderation as an election ploy.“Those who don’t use tricks, lose,” Mr. Cohen told a young supporter. Asked to elaborate by phone, Mr. Cohen declined to comment.But to many of his supporters, Mr. Ben-Gvir’s shift seems credible.He has moved “a long way” from Mr. Kahane’s ideas, said Sheffi Paz, a former leftist activist who now works with Jewish Power.Regardless, even the prospect of a reformed Mr. Ben-Gvir has drawn concern.In May 2021, his visits to a Palestinian area of East Jerusalem, Sheikh Jarrah, exacerbated unrest in the neighborhood that contributed to an 11-day war between Israel and militants in Gaza. This month, he returned to the neighborhood and encouraged the police to open fire on Palestinian stone-throwers.“Friends, they’re throwing rocks at us,” he said, pulling out his handgun. “Shoot them.”Some Israelis link his growing popularity to a gradual normalization of far-right thinking. The Israeli news media has granted Mr. Ben-Gvir more airtime this year than even some senior cabinet ministers, enhancing his profile.Supporters of Mr. Ben-Gvir this month in Tel Aviv.Avishag Shaar-Yashuv for The New York Times“The mainstream, average opinion in Israel has become closer to him,” said Ilan Rubin Fields, a documentary film director who interviewed Mr. Ben-Gvir in 2018. “I don’t think he’s that much more radical than the average person you’d stop in the street,” Mr. Fields added.Others attribute Mr. Ben-Gvir’s prominence to Mr. Netanyahu’s desperation.Mr. Netanyahu refused to leave office after being placed on trial for corruption in 2020, prompting right-wing allies to abandon him. That forced him to look for allies elsewhere.Since 2019, Mr. Netanyahu has helped broker alliances between far-right groups, including Mr. Ben-Gvir’s, that would have struggled to enter Parliament alone. His interventions helped legitimize Mr. Ben-Gvir, gave him a bigger platform and ultimately got him elected.The most recent intervention, in August, ensured another far-right party could benefit from Mr. Ben-Gvir’s now rocketing popularity.“Because of the threats Netanyahu feels for his very immediate and personal future, he is willing to lay his hand on Ben-Gvir and include him in his camp,” said Tomer Persico, a research fellow at the Shalom Hartman Institute, a research group in Jerusalem. “That changes the whole of the Israeli political map.”A Ben-Gvir rally last week in Tel Aviv.Avishag Shaar-Yashuv for The New York TimesMr. Ben-Gvir’s rise has also been propelled by young ultra-Orthodox voters who have grown disenchanted with traditional religious parties and right-wing secular Israelis who voted in the last election for Naftali Bennett.A former settler leader, Mr. Bennett was expected to help extend Mr. Netanyahu’s tenure. But he angered his base by forming a coalition with Mr. Lapid instead, as well as, for the first time in Israel history, a party from the country’s Arab minority.To his former supporters, the decision endangered the country’s Jewish identity and stifled the government’s ability to deal with Arab militants. It drove some of them to Mr. Ben-Gvir.“We have to save our Jewish state,” said Ms. Inbar, the activist.She stood behind Mr. Ben-Gvir at his rally, holding up a placard that suggested that only a right-wing government could block Arab influence on Israeli politics.“Yameen o Falasteen,” the sign said in Hebrew. “The Right — or Palestine.”Mr. Ben-Gvir entering the Supreme Court to discuss a petition he filed against the signature of the maritime border agreement with Lebanon.Avishag Shaar-Yashuv for The New York TimesGabby Sobelman More

    • 100 Shares159 Views

      in Elections

      Kari Ann Lake’s Hijacking of Martin Luther King

      by

      Meet Kari Lake. She is the election-denying, antisemite-endorsing former television news anchor who is the Republican candidate for governor of Arizona.She is Donald Trump in lipstick. But she delivers her divisiveness in the calm and measured tones of a person reading the news rather than a man who froths at the mic.She parrots Trump’s disgusting generalizations about immigrants, saying last month: “The media might have a field day with this one, but I’m going to just repeat something President Trump said a long time ago, and it got him in a lot of trouble. They are bringing drugs. They are bringing crime, and they are rapists, and that’s who’s coming across our border. That’s a fact.”Like Trump, she refuses to commit to accepting the result of the Arizona election — unless she wins. All she would say last week when asked on CNN’s “State of the Union” whether she would accept the outcome was, “I’m going to win the election, and I will accept that result.” Well, of course.In the same way that Trump sought to brand Hillary Clinton a racist — calling her in 2016 “a bigot who sees people of color only as votes, not as human beings worthy of a better future” — Lake is telling CNN that her opponent Katie Hobbs is “a twice-convicted racist.”Convicted? If racism were a crime for which one could be convicted, America wouldn’t have enough prisons to hold the guilty, and Lake’s buddy Trump would be the mascot of the cellblock.Now Lake is joining Trump in invoking the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. in self-serving ways. On Martin Luther King Day in 2020, Trump tweeted: “It was exactly three years ago today, January 20, 2017, that I was sworn into office. So appropriate that today is also MLK jr DAY. African-American Unemployment is the LOWEST in the history of our Country, by far. Also, best Poverty, Youth, and Employment numbers, ever. Great!” Trump will always find a way to make things about himself.But Lake one-upped Trump in disrespecting King’s legacy, at a campaign event on Tuesday with the failed Democratic presidential hopeful (and now former Democrat) Tulsi Gabbard.Gabbard said during their exchange that she became a Democrat because she was “inspired” by the “party of Dr. Martin Luther King” and John F. Kennedy, “a party that said we respect your individual freedoms and civil liberties and a government of, by and for the people.” But, she added, “unfortunately that party no longer exists today.”Let’s stop here and start to set the record straight. The Democratic Party is not the party of Dr. King. He was devoted to principles and policies, not parties. In fact, he once said: “I don’t think the Republican Party is a party full of the almighty God, nor is the Democratic Party. They both have weaknesses. And I’m not inextricably bound to either.”He was, however, bound to the idea of equality, fairness and truth, things that are anathema to the modern Republican Party. Democrats, on the other hand, are fighting for voting rights, which King championed, even as Republicans rush to suppress voting.Gabbard is obscene in her obtuseness, but what else can you expect from her?After Gabbard’s distortions about the Democratic Party of her youth disappearing, Lake chimed in, saying, “I’m a true believer that if M.L.K., Rev. Martin Luther King Jr., were alive today, if J.F.K. were alive today, if our founding fathers were alive today, they would be America First Republicans.”Let’s set aside for a moment the fact that the founders worried and wrote endlessly about their fear of demagogues like Trump, whom Lake supports and whose lies she propagates.Let’s set aside the fact that Kennedy railed against core Republican policies that remain relatively unchanged, saying in a 1947 speech that the “Republican policies that brought disaster to the country in the late ’20s are good enough for the Republicans of today” and describing their agenda as “stringent labor laws, which strangle labor’s freedom by restraint” and “tax reductions which benefit the prosperous at the expense of the poor, at a time when the buying power in the upper ranges of income is abnormally high, while the buying power in the lower ranges of income is abnormally low.”Let’s instead focus on what has become a standard tactic for Republicans: co-opting King’s legacy, saying that he would have supported people who now stand for exactly what he opposed.It is a brazen act of blaspheming, an attempted theft of moral authority being conducted in broad daylight. And it’s not new. It has been happening for at least a decade, and writers and researchers have long been writing about it. What is striking to me is not that it happened but the consistency and longevity of the fraud.This is not an extemporaneous error but a concerted, coordinated effort to distract and deceive, to claim the antithesis of their political position as their own political avatar.So I say to Lake and all Republicans invoking King while working against his ideals: Keep Dr. King’s name out of your mouths!The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook and Twitter (@NYTopinion), and Instagram. More

    • 88 Shares149 Views

      in Elections

      Your Monday Briefing: Xi Jinping Consolidates Power

      by

      Plus Britain prepares for a new leader and Russia forcibly resettles Ukraine’s children.Xi Jinping is poised to push his vision of a swaggering, nationalist China even further, with himself at the center.Kevin Frayer/Getty ImagesXi Jinping tightens his gripTo no one’s surprise, Xi Jinping has formally secured a third term as head of China’s Communist Party.He thoroughly shook up the party’s top tiers, elevating loyalists and forcing out moderates. In so doing, Xi consolidated his power and created a new ruling elite primed to elevate his agenda of bolstering national security and turning China into a technological great power. And in a moment packed with symbolism, Hu Jintao, who presided over one of China’s more open and prosperous periods, was ushered out of an important political meeting.Xi chose six men with longstanding ties to him for the Politburo Standing Committee, the top echelon of the party. Wang Huning, his chief theoretician, remains on the body, a sign that hard-line policies and the role of ideology will persist. Xi also appointed to the Politburo, the party’s second tier, a number of domestic security officials and military commanders, as well as several people with backgrounds in science and engineering.As Xi tightens his control, Beijing is likely to remain defiant in the face of international criticism of its authoritarian policies. Notably, at the party congress this week, Xi did not mention two long-repeated maxims about peace and strategic opportunity. The omissions revealed Xi’s anxieties about an increasingly volatile world, and warned of a looming conflict with the U.S. for global dominance.Analysis: To supporters, Xi’s centralized control and continuity are strengths. But some argue that ousting critics could leave Xi’s government vulnerable to failures like its mismanagement during the early days of Covid-19.Standing Committee: New appointees include Ding Xuexiang, Xi’s right-hand man, and Li Qiang, who worked under Xi when they were local officials in Zhejiang Province. Li oversaw a contentious Covid lockdown in Shanghai and is now in line to become China’s new premier.Other updates:For the first time in decades, no women will be on the Politburo.Hu Chunhua, once seen as a potential successor to Premier Li Keqiang, has been sidelined: He’s not in the Standing Committee or the Politburo.From Opinion: Ai Weiwei, an artist and outspoken critic of the Chinese government, argues that the Communist Party has suppressed all possible dissent, despite hopes that capitalism and the internet would create opportunities for rebellion.Liz Truss’s departure plunged Britain deeper into financial uncertainty.Sam Bush for The New York TimesBoris Johnson bows outBritain’s Conservative Party plans to select a new prime minister this week, days after Liz Truss resigned.One thing is for sure: It won’t be Boris Johnson, who was forced to resign as prime minister in July. Johnson pulled out of the race yesterday evening, despite speculation that he was eyeing a return to power.The State of the WarA Looming Crisis: Russia’s stepped-up attacks on infrastructure and vital utility networks in Ukraine herald a new phase of the war — one that threatens millions of Ukrainians with the prospect of a winter without electricity, water and heat in half-destroyed buildings.A New Front?: Russia is massing thousands of troops in its western neighbor Belarus, raising fears that Moscow might plan to open another front in the war. But officials in Kyiv and Washington are casting doubt on whether the buildup represents a serious threat.Occupied Regions: President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia declared martial law in four illegally annexed regions of Ukraine as pro-Kremlin authorities in the city of Kherson said they would evacuate tens of thousands of people in advance of a possible Ukrainian counterattack.An Opportunity Ahead: American officials are convinced that the next six weeks, before fall mud spreads, could allow Ukraine’s military to press forward in the Donbas region and potentially retake Kherson.Rishi Sunak, the former chancellor of the Exchequer who had lost to Truss, is now the favorite to win. He had lined up at least 147 votes by late afternoon yesterday, according to a tally by the BBC.Sunak could become prime minister as early as today: If only one candidate receives 100 or more nominations from the 357 Conservative members of Parliament, that person will become the next prime minister.Analysis: Some experts link Truss’s downfall to the bitter factions Brexit created in the Conservative Party.A broken window at a hospital in Mariupol, where many resettled children once lived.Evgeniy Maloletka/Associated PressRussia resettles Ukraine’s childrenSince Russia’s invasion started in February, thousands of Ukrainian children have been transferred to Russia, often against their will, to be adopted and become citizens.Russian authorities have celebrated the adoptions with patriotic fanfare. On state-run television, officials offer teddy bears to new arrivals, who are portrayed as abandoned children being rescued from war.But this mass transfer of children is a potential war crime. Some were taken after their parents had been killed or imprisoned by Russian troops, according to Ukrainian officials. And while many did come from orphanages and group homes, the authorities also took children whose relatives or guardians want them back.“I didn’t want to go,” one 14-year-old girl told my colleague Emma Bubola. “But nobody asked me.” Fighting: Russian forces pounded Ukraine’s power plants with some of the heaviest missile strikes in weeks.THE LATEST NEWSAsia PacificThe women say that they have suffered lasting trauma from the episode at Hamad International Airport in Doha, Qatar.Karim Jaafar/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesFive Australian women have sued Qatar two years after they underwent invasive medical procedures when a newborn was found in an airport bathroom.Pakistan’s election commission effectively barred former Prime Minister Imran Khan from office, escalating a political showdown and raising the possibility of mass unrest.Indonesia has banned cough syrup sales amid worries that tainted product from India may be connected to the deaths of dozens of children in Gambia.BTS members can still perform at South Korean national events during their upcoming military service, The Korea Times reports.Around the WorldThe Jan. 6 committee subpoenaed Donald Trump for testimony and documents.At least 50 people died when security forces in Chad opened fire on protesters, who were demanding that the military junta stick to a promise to hold elections.Palestinians have moved into caves as Israel tries to expel them from their villages and demolish their homes, which could amount to a war crime. Other Big StoriesSteve Bannon, a former adviser to Donald Trump, was found guilty of two counts of contempt of Congress.Chip Somodevilla/Getty ImagesSteve Bannon was sentenced to four months in prison for defying a Jan. 6 committee subpoena.A U.S. court temporarily blocked the Biden administration from canceling any student debt.Protests, a riot and gunshots: Here’s how a fire at a notorious Iranian prison spread.A Morning ReadTamara Plieshkova, right, feels like “an old, mature tree being replanted into new soil,” her daughter said. Plieshkova reunited with her granddaughter in Colorado after escaping the war in Ukraine in September.Theo Stroomer for The New York TimesThere is a name for the specific type of grief that both refugees and migrants experience. It’s “cultural bereavement.”Lives lived: Peter Schjeldahl, an art critic whose enthusiasm and elegant reviews helped define New York’s art scene, died at 80. Read his witty essay from 2019 on his lung cancer diagnosis.GLOBAL GASTRONOMYNoma in KyotoNoma, the celebrated Danish restaurant, will open a 10-week pop-up in Kyoto, Japan. It will span sakura (cherry-blossom) season and incorporate ingredients and methods from the region, which is the historic center of Japanese Buddhism.The very structure of the meal also references Buddhist culinary traditions. The ubiquitous modern tasting menu has its roots in kaiseki, a carefully orchestrated progression of small plates that grew from a Buddhist tea ceremony into a luxurious cuisine in Kyoto. In the late 1960s, elements of the meal began to flow from Japan into fine dining, often through the influential Tsuji culinary school in Osaka.The conceptual approach to ingredients was partially born in kaiseki, too: Kyoto’s kaiseki menus have always changed to reflect the seasons. That idea has given rise to foraging, restaurant gardens and the farm-to-table movement.“I was taught that the tasting menu was invented by the French and then reinvented in Spain,” René Redzepi, Noma’s chef, told The Times. “I had no idea of the vast repository of ideas and techniques that is Japanese food.”Details: Noma Kyoto will be open from March 15 through May 20. The meal will cost just over 850 euros (about $839) per person and reservations will open on Nov. 7 on Noma’s website.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookKate Sears for The New York TimesYou only need one pan for this shrimp scampi with crispy gnocchi.What to Listen toTaylor Swift’s new album, “Midnights,” comments on life as a deeply observed figure.What to Read“Is Mother Dead,” a harrowing Norwegian novel, features a middle-aged painter desperate to reconcile with her estranged parent.Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: British baked good (five letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. Best wishes for a great week. — AmeliaP.S. The Concorde made its last commercial flight 19 years ago today.Start your week with this narrated long read about Yiyun Li, a novelist beloved for her powerful distillations of grief. And here’s Friday’s edition of “The Daily,” on Liz Truss’s downfall.You can reach Amelia and the team at briefing@nytimes.com. More

    • 138 Shares179 Views

      in Elections

      Race for U.K. Prime Minister Heats Up as Nominations Roll In

      by

      Conservative Party lawmakers have so far put more weight behind Rishi Sunak to be their next leader, but Boris Johnson is still in the fight to reclaim Downing Street.LONDON — The competition to replace Liz Truss as Britain’s prime minister intensified on Sunday, with Rishi Sunak pulling ahead in the scramble for votes of Conservative lawmakers, but Boris Johnson mounting a lively campaign to reclaim the job he gave up three months ago amid a cascade of scandals.Mr. Sunak, who formally declared his candidacy with a promise to “fix our economy,” had lined up at least 144 votes by early Sunday afternoon, according to a tally by the BBC, more than double the 56 votes pledged to Mr. Johnson. A third candidate, Penny Mordaunt, had 23.Beyond the numerical advantage, Mr. Sunak has picked up significant endorsements from people on the right flank of the Conservative Party. On Sunday morning, Steve Baker, a lawmaker who represents an influential group of euro-skeptics in Parliament, announced he would support Mr. Sunak.“Boris Johnson would be a guaranteed disaster,” Mr. Baker told Sophy Ridge of Sky News. “We cannot allow it to happen.”That is important because it suggests that not only do party leaders view Mr. Johnson as an intolerable risk, they also believe that Mr. Sunak, who served as chancellor of the Exchequer under Mr. Johnson, could bridge some of the bitter ideological fissures in the party, which were deepened by Ms. Truss’s turbulent six weeks in office. In the last contest, many figures on the party’s right flocked to Ms. Truss, which put her in a good position to beat Mr. Sunak.More on the Situation in BritainA Rapid Downfall: Liz Truss is about to become the shortest-serving prime minister in British history. How did she get there?Lifelong Allowance: The departing prime minister is eligible for a taxpayer-funded annual payout for the rest of her life. Some say she shouldn’t be allowed to receive it.Staging a Comeback?: When Boris Johnson left his role as prime minister in September, he hinted he might return. He is now being mentioned as a successor to Ms. Truss.Under the rules set out by the party, candidates are required to have nominations from at least 100 of the 357 Conservative lawmakers to advance to a second round of voting, among rank-and-file members of the party.Candidates have until 2 p.m. Monday to gather nominations. On Monday, the party will hold two rounds of voting to winnow the field to one or two. If two remain, party members will cast online ballots later in the week.Boris Johnson on Saturday at Gatwick Airport near London after returning from a vacation.Henry Nicholls/ReutersIf Mr. Johnson can drum up 100 nominations, it would significantly raise his odds of returning to Downing Street, as opinion polls suggest he would win the vote among members. Allies of the former prime minister insist he already has those 100 votes, but political analysts have expressed skepticism, noting that barely half that number have publicly declared their intention to back him.Mr. Johnson did receive a notable endorsement from a member of his last cabinet, Nadhim Zahawi, who served briefly as chancellor of Exchequer after the resignation of Mr. Sunak. Mr. Sunak’s departure helped set in motion the wholesale walkout of ministers that finally toppled Mr. Johnson.“When I was Chancellor, I saw a preview of what Boris 2.0 would look like,” Mr. Zahawi wrote on Twitter. “He was contrite & honest about his mistakes. He’d learned from those mistakes how he could run No10 & the country better.”In July, Mr. Zahawi was among those urging Mr. Johnson to resign. “The country deserves a government that is not only stable, but which acts with integrity,” he wrote in a letter to his boss. “Prime Minister, you know in your heart what the right thing to do is, and go now.”Mr. Johnson, who flew home on Saturday from a vacation in the Dominican Republic to begin lobbying lawmakers, has yet to formally declare his candidacy. But another of his former ministers, Jacob Rees-Mogg, told the BBC that he had spoken with Mr. Johnson, and that he would “clearly stand.”Ms. Mordaunt, who officially threw her hat in the ring on Friday, is viewed as unlikely to advance past the first round of voting. But she insisted on Sunday that she, too, was confident of lining up more than 100 lawmakers.Penny Mordaunt on Sunday in London. She declared on Friday that she would stand in the leadership race.Alberto Pezzali/Associated PressBritish newspapers reported that Mr. Johnson was seeking to strike a deal with Mr. Sunak to join forces in a unity ticket, and that the two had met on Saturday. But the shape of such a ticket was unclear, given Mr. Sunak’s large lead among lawmakers, and the animosity between the two men makes any cooperation look far-fetched.In the statement announcing his candidacy, Mr. Sunak said his experience as chancellor would equip him to lead Britain through the economic challenges that loom. He promised a government of “integrity, professionalism, and accountability,” drawing a clear comparison to the ethical failings of Mr. Johnson’s tenure.The success of Mr. Sunak’s message will hinge on how lawmakers weigh that against their own electoral fortunes. The Conservatives are trailing the opposition Labour Party by more than 30 percentage points in polls. Though the Conservative Party’s steep erosion in support began under Mr. Johnson, he is still viewed by many as a proven vote-getter after his landslide victory in the 2019 general election.Mr. Rees-Mogg, repeating the claim that Mr. Johnson had more than 100 votes, described him as the party’s “greatest electoral asset,” contending that only he could engineer a victory over the Labour Party. More

    • 125 Shares189 Views

      in Elections

      La desinformación es más difícil de combatir en EE. UU.

      by

      La proliferación de redes sociales alternativas ha ayudado a afianzar la información falsa y engañosa como elemento clave de la política estadounidense.La mañana del 8 de julio, el expresidente Donald Trump recurrió a Truth Social, la plataforma de redes sociales que fundó con gente cercana a él, para afirmar que había ganado las elecciones presidenciales del 2020 en el estado de Wisconsin, a pesar de todas las pruebas que evidenciaban lo contrario.Alrededor de 8000 personas compartieron esa misiva en Truth Social, cifra que distó mucho de los cientos de miles de respuestas que sus publicaciones en Facebook y Twitter solían generar antes de que esas plataformas le apagaran el micrófono tras los mortíferos disturbios en el Capitolio el 6 de enero de 2021.A pesar de ello, la afirmación infundada de Trump pululó en la conciencia pública. Saltó de su aplicación a otras plataformas de redes sociales, por no hablar de pódcast, la radio y la televisión.Al cabo de 48 horas de publicado su mensaje, más de un millón de personas lo habían visto en al menos una decena de otros lugares. Apareció en Facebook y Twitter, de donde fue eliminado, pero también en YouTube, Gab, Parler y Telegram, según un análisis de The New York Times.La difusión de la afirmación de Trump ilustra cómo la desinformación ha hecho metástasis desde que los expertos comenzaron a sonar la alarma sobre la amenaza que supone y todo esto ocurre justo antes de las elecciones de mitad de mandato de este año. A pesar de los años de esfuerzos de los medios de comunicación, de los académicos e incluso de las propias empresas de redes sociales para hacer frente al problema, se puede decir que hoy en día está más generalizado y extendido.“Para ser honesta, me parece que el problema está peor que nunca”, comentó Nina Jankowicz, experta en desinformación que condujo durante un periodo breve un consejo consultivo dentro del Departamento de Seguridad Nacional dedicado a combatir la desinformación. La creación del panel desató furor y provocó su renuncia y la disolución del consejo consultivo.No hace mucho, la lucha contra la desinformación se centraba en las principales plataformas de redes sociales, como Facebook y Twitter. Cuando se les presionaba, solían eliminar los contenidos problemáticos, incluida la información errónea y la desinformación intencionada sobre la pandemia de COVID-19.Sin embargo, ahora hay decenas de plataformas nuevas, incluidas algunas que se enorgullecen de no moderar —censurar, como lo denominan— las declaraciones falsas en nombre de la libertad de expresión.Otras personalidades siguieron los pasos de Trump y se cambiaron a estas nuevas plataformas tras ser “censuradas” por Facebook, YouTube o Twitter. Entre ellos, Michael Flynn, el general retirado que sirvió brevemente como principal asesor de Seguridad Nacional de Trump; L. Lin Wood, una abogada pro-Trump; Naomi Wolf, una autora feminista y escéptica de las vacunas, así como diversos seguidores de QAnon y los Oath Keepers, un grupo de militantes de extrema derecha.Al menos 69 millones de personas se han unido a plataformas como Parler, Gab, Truth Social, Gettr y Rumble, que se promueven como alternativas conservadoras a las grandes empresas tecnológicas, según declaraciones de las empresas mismas. Aunque muchos de esos usuarios ya no tienen cabida en las plataformas más grandes, siguen difundiendo sus opiniones, que a menudo aparecen en capturas de pantalla publicadas en los sitios que les prohibieron la entrada.“Nada en internet existe de manera aislada”, afirmó Jared Holt, gestor principal en la investigación sobre odio y extremismo del Instituto para el Diálogo Estratégico. “Lo que ocurre en plataformas alternas como Gab o Telegram o Truth tarde o temprano llega a Facebook, Twitter y otras”, agregó.Los usuarios han migrado a aplicaciones como Truth Social luego de haber sido “censuradas” por Facebook, YouTube o Twitter.Leon Neal/Getty ImagesEl discurso político se ha radicalizado por la difusión de las personas que propagan desinformación, indicó Nora Benavidez, abogada sénior en Free Press, un grupo de defensa de los derechos digitales y la transparencia.“Nuestro lenguaje y nuestros ecosistemas en línea se están volviendo cada vez más corrosivos”, dijo.Los cambios en el paisaje de la desinformación se están haciendo más evidentes con el ciclo electoral en Estados Unidos. En 2016, la campaña encubierta de Rusia para difundir mensajes falsos y divisorios parecía una aberración en el sistema político estadounidense. Hoy la desinformación, procedente de enemigos extranjeros y nacionales, se ha convertido en una característica del mismo.La idea infundada de que el presidente Joe Biden no fue electo de manera legítima se generalizó entre los miembros del Partido Republicano, e hizo que funcionarios de los estados y los condados impusieran nuevas restricciones para votar, a menudo solo con base en teorías de la conspiración que se cuelan en los medios de comunicación de derecha.Los votantes no solo deben filtrar un torrente cada vez mayor de mentiras y falsedades sobre los candidatos y sus políticas, sino también información sobre cuándo y dónde votar. Los funcionarios nombrados o elegidos en nombre de la lucha contra el fraude electoral han adoptado una postura que implica que se negarán a certificar los resultados que no sean de su agrado.Los proveedores de desinformación también se han vuelto cada vez más sofisticados a la hora de eludir las normas de las principales plataformas, mientras que el uso del video para difundir afirmaciones falsas en YouTube, TikTok e Instagram ha hecho que los sistemas automatizados tengan más dificultades para identificarlos que los mensajes de texto.TikTok, propiedad del gigante chino de la tecnología ByteDance, se ha vuelto uno de los principales campos de batalla en la lucha actual contra la desinformación. Un informe del mes pasado de NewsGuard, una organización que da seguimiento al problema en línea, mostró que casi el 20 por ciento de los videos que aparecían como resultados de búsqueda en TikTok contenían información falsa o tendenciosa sobre temas como los tiroteos en las escuelas y la guerra de Rusia en Ucrania.Katie Harbath en el “sala de operaciones” de Facebook, donde se monitoreaba el contenido relacionado con las elecciones en la plataforma, en 2018Jeff Chiu/Associated Press“La gente que hace esto sabe cómo aprovechar los vacíos”, explicó Katie Harbath, exdirectora de políticas públicas de Facebook que ahora dirige Anchor Change, una consultora estratégica.A pocas semanas de las elecciones de mitad de mandato, las principales plataformas se han comprometido a bloquear, etiquetar o marginar todo lo que infrinja las políticas de la empresa, incluida la desinformación, la incitación al odio o los llamados a la violencia.Sin embargo, la industria artesanal de expertos dedicados a contrarrestar la desinformación —los grupos de expertos, las universidades y las organizaciones no gubernamentales— mencionan que la industria no está haciendo suficiente. El mes pasado, por ejemplo, el Centro Stern para los Negocios y los Derechos Humanos de la Universidad de Nueva York advirtió que las principales plataformas seguían amplificando el “negacionismo electoral” de maneras que debilitaban la confianza en el sistema democrático.Otro desafío es la proliferación de plataformas alternativas para esas falsedades y opiniones aún más extremas.Muchas de esas nuevas plataformas florecieron tras la derrota de Trump en 2020, aunque todavía no han alcanzado el tamaño o el alcance de Facebook y Twitter. Estas plataformas afirman que las grandes empresas tecnológicas están en deuda con el gobierno, el Estado profundo o la élite liberal.Parler, una red social fundada en 2018, era uno de los sitios que más crecía, hasta que las tiendas de aplicaciones de Apple y Google lo expulsaron tras los disturbios mortales del 6 de enero, alimentados por la desinformación y los llamados a la violencia en línea. Desde entonces ha vuelto a ambas tiendas y ha empezado a reconstruir su audiencia apelando a quienes sienten que sus voces han sido silenciadas.“En Parler creemos que el individuo es quien debe decidir lo que cree que es la verdad”, dijo en una entrevista, Amy Peikoff, la directora de políticas de la plataforma.Argumentó que el problema con la desinformación o las teorías de la conspiración se derivaba de los algoritmos que las plataformas usan para mantener a la gente pegada a internet y no del debate sin moderar que fomentan sitios como Parler.El lunes, Parler anunció que Kanye West había, en principio, accedido a comprar la plataforma en un acuerdo que el rapero y el diseñador de moda, ahora conocido como Ye, formuló en términos políticos.“En un mundo en que las opiniones conservadoras se consideran controversiales, debemos de asegurarnos de tener el derecho a expresarnos libremente”, dijo, según el comunicado de la compañía.Los competidores de Parler son ahora BitChute, Gab, Gettr, Rumble, Telegram y Truth Social, y cada uno de ellos se presenta como un santuario frente a las políticas de moderación de las principales plataformas en todo tipo de temas, desde la política hasta la salud.Una nueva encuesta del Centro de Investigaciones Pew descubrió que el 15 por ciento de las cuentas destacadas en esas siete plataformas habían sido desterradas previamente de otras como Twitter y Facebook.Las aplicaciones como Gettr se publicitan como alternativas a los gigantes tecnológicosElijah Nouvelage/Getty ImagesSegún la encuesta, casi dos terceras partes de los usuarios de esas plataformas dijeron que habían encontrado una comunidad de personas que compartían sus opiniones. La mayoría son republicanos o se inclinan por ese partido.Una consecuencia de esta atomización de las fuentes de las redes sociales es que se refuerzan las burbujas de información partidista en las que viven millones de estadounidenses.Según el Centro Pew, al menos el seis por ciento de los estadounidenses se informa de manera habitual en al menos uno de estos sitios relativamente nuevos, que a menudo “ponen de relieve puntos de vista del mundo que no pertenecen a la corriente dominante y, a veces, utilizan un lenguaje ofensivo”. La encuesta encontró que una de cada 10 publicaciones en estas plataformas que mencionaban cuestiones relacionadas con la comunidad LGBTQ incluían alegatos peyorativos.Estos nuevos sitios siguen siendo marginales comparados con las plataformas más grandes; por ejemplo, Trump tiene 4 millones de seguidores en Truth Social, en comparación con los 88 millones que tenía cuando Twitter cerró su cuenta en 2021.Aun así, Trump ha retomado cada vez más sus publicaciones con el ímpetu que antes mostraba en Twitter. El allanamiento del FBI en Mar-a-Lago volvió a poner sus últimos pronunciamientos en el ojo del huracán político.Para las principales plataformas, el incentivo financiero para atraer usuarios, y sus clics, sigue siendo poderoso y podría hacer que den marcha atrás a las medidas que tomaron en 2021. También hay un componente ideológico. El llamado a la libertad individual, con tintes emocionales, impulsó en parte la oferta de Elon Musk para comprar Twitter, que parece haberse reactivado tras meses de maniobras legales.Nick Clegg, el presidente de asuntos globales de Meta, la empresa matriz de Facebook, incluso sugirió hace poco que la plataforma podría restablecer la cuenta de Trump en 2023, antes de la que podría ser otra carrera presidencial. Facebook había dicho previamente que solo lo haría “si el riesgo para la seguridad pública ha disminuido”.Nick Clegga, el presidente de asuntos globales de MetaPatrick T. Fallon/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesUn estudio de Truth Social realizado por Media Matters for America, un grupo de monitoreo de medios con tendencia de izquierda, examinó la forma en que la plataforma se ha convertido en hogar de algunas de las teorías de conspiración más marginales. Trump, que empezó a publicar en la plataforma en el mes de abril, ha amplificado cada vez más el contenido de QAnon, la teoría de conspiración en línea.Ha compartido publicaciones de QAnon más de 130 veces. Los seguidores de QAnon promueven una falsedad amplia y compleja centrada en Trump como líder que se enfrenta a una conspiración de una camarilla de pedófilos del Partido Demócrata. Dichas opiniones han hallado cabida durante las primarias de este año en las campañas electorales de los republicanos.Jankowicz, la experta en desinformación, mencionó que las divisiones sociales y políticas habían agitado las olas de la desinformación.Las controversias sobre la mejor manera de responder a la pandemia de COVID-19 profundizaron la desconfianza en el gobierno y los expertos médicos, sobre todo entre los conservadores. La negativa de Trump a aceptar el resultado de las elecciones de 2020 condujo a la violencia en el Capitolio, pero no terminó con ella.“Deberían habernos unido”, dijo Jankowicz, refiriéndose a la pandemia y a los disturbios. “Pensé que quizás podrían servir como una especie de poder de convocatoria, pero no lo fueron”Steven Lee Myers cubre desinformación para el Times. Ha trabajado en Washington, Moscú, Bagdad y Pekín, donde contribuyó a los artículos que ganaron el Premio Pulitzer al servicio público en 2021. También es el autor de The New Tsar: The Rise and Reign of Vladimir Putin. @stevenleemyers • FacebookSheera Frenkel es una reportera de tecnología premiada que tiene su sede en San Francisco. En 2021, ella y Cecilia Kang publicaron Manipulados. La batalla de Facebook por la dominación mundial. @sheeraf More