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      Iraq’s Instability Deepens Amid Political Paralysis and Clashes

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      BAGHDAD — On most days in the Iraqi capital, jackhammers and electric drills provide the soundtrack to a construction boom, with multistory restaurants taking shape and a new $800 million central bank building rising above the skyline.But this apparent prosperity in parts of Baghdad belies what many Iraqi officials and citizens see as the crumbling foundation of the state — an oil-rich Middle Eastern country that the United States had intended to be free and democratic when it led an invasion 19 years ago to topple the dictator Saddam Hussein.After the invasion, Iraq’s long-sidelined Shiite Muslim majority came to dominate government, and the power struggle between Shiite and Sunni political groups fueled a sectarian war. Now, in a dangerous threat to the country’s already tenuous stability, rival Shiite armed groups, the most powerful among them tied to neighboring Iran, are fighting each other, and are beyond the control of the central government.“Internally, externally, at the political level and at the security level, Iraq is now a failed state,” said Saad Eskander, an Iraqi historian. “The Iraqi state cannot project its authority over its territory or its people.”A street in an impoverished neighborhood of Baghdad, where many live below the poverty line and do not have access to enough clean water or government-supplied electricity.Sleeping through the midday heat in Baghdad.Iraq’s weaknesses once again came into sharp relief last week when a stalemate over forming a new government — almost a year after the last elections — exploded into violence in the heart of the capital.Followers of the influential Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr stormed the heavily guarded Green Zone in an antigovernment protest after Mr. Sadr announced he was withdrawing from politics. Then rival pro-Iranian Shiite paramilitary fighters on the public payroll began shooting at the protesters, and armed members of a Sadr militia emerged to fight them.Ordered by the prime minister not to shoot at the demonstrators, government security forces were largely sidelined while the rival militias fought it out. After two days of fighting killed 34 people, Mr. Sadr ordered his followers to withdraw from the Green Zone, restoring an uneasy calm.The violence was rooted in a stalemate over forming a government that has dragged on since the elections in October 2021.Mr. Sadr’s followers won the largest bloc of seats in Parliament, although that was not enough to form a government without coalition partners. When he failed to put together a ruling coalition, the major Iran-backed parties with paramilitary wings — Shiite political rivals to Mr. Sadr — stepped in and tried to sideline him.Mr. Sadr then turned to his power on the street rather than at the negotiating table, ordering his followers to set up a protest camp at Parliament — a tactic he has used in the past.“If we discuss post-2003 Iraq, then we have to say it has never actually been a functioning state,” said Maria Fantappie of the Center for Humanitarian Dialogue, a Swiss-based conflict management organization. “We never had a prime minister with total control of the security forces or the borders.”Relatives of patients await news at a Baghdad hospital that treats poorer communities.Muhammed Said Jihad received oxygen while his cousin watched over him at a Baghdad hospital.That Iraq has not collapsed is thanks largely to the country’s immense oil wealth. But most citizens never see the benefit of that wealth, suffering through daily electricity cuts, decrepit schools and a lack of health care or even clean water.Last month, the country’s respected finance minister, Ali Allawi, resigned with a stark warning that staggering levels of corruption were draining Iraqi resources and posed an existential threat.“Vast underground networks of senior officials, corrupt businessmen and politicians operate in the shadows to dominate entire sectors of the economy and siphon off literally billions of dollars from the public purse,” Mr. Allawi wrote in his resignation letter to the prime minister. “This vast octopus of corruption and deceit has reached into every sector of the country’s economy and institutions: It must be dismantled at all costs if this country is to survive.”Mr. Allawi, who also served as finance minister in 2006, said he was shocked when he returned at “how far the machinery of government had deteriorated” under the domination of special interest groups tied to various countries in the region.“You have the people who fly off to Tehran, fly off to Amman, fly off to Ankara, fly off to the U.A.E., fly off to Qatar,” he said in an interview with The New York Times in June. “Before, they used to fly off to Washington, but they don’t do that anymore.”A garbage truck dumping trash in a Baghdad area that is home to generations of Iraqis who migrated from the south seeking better prospects. A street vendor fixing a fan for a customer in Baghdad.The United States, meanwhile, has increasingly disengaged from the Arab world, focusing mainly on containing Iran and fostering normalization with Israel. For years the target of hostility over its occupation of Iraq, the country now appears to be losing relevance as Shiite militias battle it out for primacy.Iraq sits on the world’s fourth-largest oil reserves, and oil revenues have both fed corruption and propped up the economy.According to state and local officials, militias and tribal groups siphon off customs revenue from Iraq’s Gulf port of Umm Qasr. Crossings along the 1,000-mile border with Iran are another source of illicit revenue. Iran-backed militias in Iraq control sectors like scrap metal, and they extort payments for protection from businesses.Government contracts are another major source of corruption.Iraq’s health ministry, traditionally run by officials loyal to Mr. Sadr, is the monopoly buyer of almost half the medications imported into Iraq and is considered one of the most corrupt ministries, according to Iraqi officials and outside experts.Three years ago, Ala Alwan, a former World Health Organization official, resigned as health minister, saying he could no longer fight corruption in the ministry or ward off threats.Mr. Allawi, in the interview in June when he was still finance minister, described a country that had essentially become ungovernable.“You can’t do anything but manage daily affairs, given that in this country, there’s a crisis every day,” he said.Baghdad residents on a city bus. Iraq has one of the youngest populations in the Middle East, and there are fears that the economy will not be able to support them.Medical waste flowing into the Tigris River near a hospital in Baghdad.With the war in Ukraine driving up oil prices state revenue has recently come from oil exports — a lack of diversification that could prove disastrous as the world increasingly turns to alternative energy sources.But with dysfunctional ministries and a weak central government, there is no real effort to improve public services or life for the one-quarter of the population estimated by the government to live in poverty.Large parts of the country suffer from shortages of electricity or clean water — a continuing crisis that fueled widespread protests three years ago, leading to the fall of the government.Few sectors are as blatantly dysfunctional as the country’s once-respected educational system. For almost seven years, thousands of temporary teachers have worked without pay, waiting for a chance to be hired by the education ministry. The ministry has now begun making payments.Schools are so overcrowded they operate in shifts, offering only half a day of classes to students. Many schools lack running water or enough toilets. Most are lucky if they have fans in the 100-degree heat.More than half of Iraqi students drop out before high school. In Baghdad and other cities, children who have left school push wooden carts in outdoor markets or hawk bottles of water to drivers in traffic.Relatives of patients lining up to collect prescriptions at a Baghdad hospital.A classroom for trainee doctors at a Baghdad hospital.“We didn’t receive new textbooks this year,” said Um Zahra, a primary schoolteacher who was doing paperwork at the education ministry this week. “We are trying to use old ones,” she added, saying she did not want to give her full name because she did not have her husband’s permission to speak.Um Zahra said her own neighborhood in Baghdad, the second biggest city in the Middle East, had not had regular running water since 2014.There is so little faith in the political system that in Baghdad, voter turnout was about 30 percent in the last elections. Many expect the same corrupt politicians to remain in power thanks to a post-2003 system that ensures key posts for specific religious and ethnic groups.With neighboring Iran and Turkey both frequently breaching Iraqi sovereignty, the weakness of the Iraqi government and state institutions poses a threat to regional stability — as it did in 2014 when the Iraqi army collapsed in the face of an Islamic State assault that conquered large parts of the country.Mr. Eskander, the historian, said Iraq’s instability can be traced back to before Saddam was toppled, when it lost control of some of its borders and territory in the Iran-Iraq war. But he said he still had hope that the country would survive.“A change of leaders — a change of generations — is the only way,” Mr. Eskander said.Open sewage in a poor neighborhood in Baghdad. More

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      County Official Arrested in Las Vegas Reporter’s Stabbing Death, Prosecutor Says

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      Robert Telles, the Clark County public administrator, was taken into custody in the killing of Jeff German, a reporter at The Las Vegas Review-Journal, the district attorney said.A county official in Las Vegas was arrested on a murder charge on Wednesday, hours after the police searched his home in connection with the fatal stabbing of a reporter at The Las Vegas Review-Journal, the district attorney said.The official, Robert Telles, the Clark County public administrator, was taken into custody in the killing of the reporter, Jeff German, according to the Clark County district attorney, Steven B. Wolfson.Mr. Telles was wheeled out on a stretcher and loaded into an ambulance after the police returned to his home in tactical gear, The Review-Journal reported. “The suspect in the homicide that occurred on September 2, 2022, has been taken into custody,” the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department wrote on Twitter on Wednesday night, without naming the person. The department said it planned to provide an update on the investigation at a news conference on Thursday morning.Mr. Telles, a Democrat elected in 2018, lost a June primary after he was the focus of investigative stories by Mr. German, who detailed claims that Mr. Telles had presided over a hostile work environment and had engaged in an “inappropriate relationship” with a staff member. Mr. Telles and the staff member denied the accusations.Mr. German, 69, was found fatally stabbed outside his home in Las Vegas on Saturday morning. The police believe he was killed after an altercation on Friday.“The arrest of Robert Telles is at once an enormous relief and an outrage for the Review-Journal newsroom,” Glenn Cook, The Review-Journal’s executive editor, said in a statement on Wednesday night. “We are relieved Robert Telles is in custody and outraged that a colleague appears to have been killed for reporting on an elected official,” Mr. Cook said. “Journalists can’t do the important work our communities require if they are afraid a presentation of facts could lead to violent retribution.”He thanked the Las Vegas police for responding to the killing with urgency and hard work. “Now, hopefully, The Review-Journal, the German family and Jeff’s many friends can begin the process of mourning and honoring a great man and a brave reporter,” Mr. Cook said.Mr. Telles did not respond earlier on Wednesday to phone messages, texts and emails, and it was unclear if he had a lawyer. The Review-Journal reported that after his home was searched, Mr. Telles had returned at about 2:20 p.m. local time, wearing what appeared to be a white hazmat suit. He did not respond to reporters’ questions as he entered his garage and closed the door, the newspaper reported.Earlier Wednesday, the police would not confirm that they were searching Mr. Telles’s home.In a statement, the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department would confirm only that it was serving search warrants related to the investigation into Mr. German’s death. “No further information will be provided at this time,” the statement said.“They’ve been here all day, since about 7 a.m.,” David Zanella, a neighbor who lives two doors from Mr. Telles, said in a phone interview earlier on Wednesday. “They towed both of the cars from the house, and they’ve been in the house, taking things.”On Tuesday, the Police Department released a video that it said showed the person who killed Mr. German wearing a wide-brimmed hat and a reflective orange jacket. The video also showed the person’s vehicle, which appeared to be a red or maroon GMC Yukon Denali, the police said.The Review-Journal reported that a vehicle matching the description of the Yukon Denali had been towed from Mr. Telles’s property on Wednesday.The police have not said whether they believe that Mr. German was targeted because of his reporting. At a news conference on Tuesday, Capt. Dori Koren of the Police Department said that investigators were evaluating every single lead and every theory.“We are exploring all possibilities in this investigation,” Captain Koren said. “But at this time, we believe we have evidence that shows that the suspect was in the area prior to the homicide, and it appears that they were casing to commit other crimes.”He asked the public for home security video or other information that could help identify the person responsible for killing Mr. German, whose career as a columnist and a senior investigative reporter spanned more than three decades.Over that period, Mr. German broke stories on organized crime, politics, casinos and corruption for The Las Vegas Sun and then for The Review-Journal.Jeff German, an investigative reporter, on the Las Vegas Strip last year.K.M. Cannon/Las Vegas Review-Journal, via APThis year, Mr. German wrote investigative stories about Mr. Telles’s office, which secures the property of deceased people and administers estates in court. In May, Mr. German reported that the office had been “mired in turmoil and internal dissension over the past two years, with allegations of emotional stress, bullying and favoritism leading to secret videotaping of the boss and a co-worker outside the office.”The story, based on interviews with a half-dozen current and former employees, described a “hostile work environment” and accusations that Mr. Telles had engaged in an “inappropriate relationship” with a staff member.In the story, Mr. Telles blamed “a handful of old-timers” for exaggerating the relationship and for falsely claiming that he had been mistreating them. “All my new employees are super happy, and everyone’s productive and doing well,” Mr. Telles was quoted as saying.In another story in late May, Mr. German reported that Clark County managers had hired a former coroner to try to ease tensions in the office.After the June primary, Mr. Telles posted a letter online criticizing The Review-Journal and rebutting claims made in Mr. German’s reporting. Mr. Telles also wrote about Mr. German on Twitter.“Typical bully,” Mr. Telles wrote. “Can’t take a pound of critism after slinging 100 pounds of BS. Up to article #4 now. You’d think he’d have better things to do.” He included an emoji of a winking face with a tongue sticking out.After Mr. German was killed, Mr. Cook told the paper that Mr. German had not communicated any concerns for his safety or any threats made against him.“There are no words for a loss like this,” Mr. Cook wrote on Twitter on Sept. 4.Sheelagh McNeill More

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      Truss Forms a Cabinet Diverse in Background but Not in Ideology

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      Britain’s new prime minister, Liz Truss, has recruited cabinet members from diverse backgrounds, though her inner circle retains a hard Conservative edge.LONDON — One attended Britain’s most famous private high-school, Eton College, another is a top-drawer lawyer, and the third holds a senior rank as an Army reservist. The résumés of those handed the three top cabinet posts by Britain’s new prime minister, Liz Truss, are typical of generations of high-achievers in her ruling Conservative Party.What is different is that none of the three are white.In choosing her top team, Ms. Truss has created a strikingly diverse cabinet. The country also has its first female deputy prime minister.“What is extraordinary is the pace of change, how this is already normal, and this isn’t contentious,” said Sunder Katwala, the director of British Future, a research institute that focuses on immigration, integration, race and identity. “There aren’t people going around saying ‘give us our country back.’”Still, Ms. Truss’s inner circle, while progressive in its ethnic makeup, also has a hard ideological edge, which critics say makes it unlikely to pursue policy friendlier to Britain’s minority population, or for refugees arriving on the country’s shores.Indeed, some argue that the diversity among cabinet ministers gives Ms. Truss the cover to pursue even more radical approaches, such as a plan to send some asylum seekers to Rwanda — a policy now the responsibility of Suella Braverman, the new home secretary, whose father came to Britain from Kenya in 1968.Suella Braverman, the new home secretary, leaving the first cabinet meeting.Tolga Akmen/EPA, via Shutterstock“There’s a difference that makes no difference, and a change that leads to no change,” said Kehinde Andrews, a professor of Black studies at Birmingham City University, citing as one example the Conservatives’ immigration policy and the Rwanda plan.“The fact is that you should judge it on the policy,” he said, “and the government’s track record is horrendous.”Ms. Braverman’s legal background — she is a barrister — is relevant to her new position because the government is fighting a battle in court with opponents who have stalled the Rwanda flights. She has already established herself as a hard-liner and has called for Britain to limit the influence of the European convention on human rights, which protects basic human rights and which was written into domestic British law in 1998.The chancellor of the Exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng, shares Ms. Truss’s faith in free markets, desire to cut taxes and approach to deregulation. His parents, an economist and a lawyer, came to Britain from Ghana as students in the 1960s. Cerebral and self-confident, Mr. Kwarteng attended Eton College and then won a place at Cambridge University, where he excelled academically.The new foreign secretary is James Cleverly, whose mother came to the Britain from Sierra Leone, and who rose to the rank of lieutenant colonel as an Army reservist. He is perhaps the least ideological of the three, though like the other two, he was a strong proponent of Brexit.The new foreign secretary, James Cleverly, on Wednesday. Ms. Truss held the position before she became the prime minister.Tolga Akmen/EPA, via ShutterstockCritics point out that, unlike the overwhelming majority of Britons, Mr. Kwarteng, Ms. Braverman and Mr. Cleverly were all educated at private schools (albeit sometimes with financial aid, as in Mr. Kwarteng’s case) — proof that social class, rather than race or gender, is perhaps the more telling dividing line in British politics.For all that, Ms. Truss’s appointments put Britain indisputably ahead of many other European countries in the diversity of its political elite. On Wednesday, Ms. Truss used her first appearance in Parliament to point out that she is the third female Conservative prime minister, while the opposition Labour Party has never elected a woman as leader.“It is quite extraordinary, is it not” Ms. Truss said, “that there does not seem to be the ability in the Labour party to find a female leader, or indeed a leader who does not come from north London?” — a reference to Keir Starmer, the party leader, and his predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn, both of whom represent parliamentary constituencies in same part of the capital.In fact, the diversity of the cabinet can be traced to a former prime minister, David Cameron, who, after becoming party leader in 2005, altered the selection process for potential Conservative lawmakers. That effectively forced local parties to choose parliamentary candidates from lists with a bigger proportion of female, Black and minority ethnic backgrounds.“Look what’s happened to the Conservative Party,” Mr. Cameron said in an interview with The New York Times in 2019. “It used to be people like me: white, posh, male, rural southerners. It has now got a gender balance. It’s every people from every Black and minority ethnic group in the country.”David Cameron, the former prime minister of Britain, in 2019.Mary Turner for The New York TimesMr. Cameron rejected the contention that the ethnic and racial diversity masked a lack of class diversity. Among those he named to his cabinet, he noted in the interview, was Sajid Javid, whose Pakistani immigrant father drove a bus.“The fact that the old fusty Conservative Party is managing to produce people like that says a lot,” he said.Britain’s first Black cabinet minister, Paul Boateng, was appointed in 2002, but until recently there was little change at the highest reaches of government. When in 2010 a member of the House of Lords, Sayeeda Warsi, was appointed to the cabinet she was the first British politician of South Asian heritage to take up such a position. It was another four years before an elected lawmaker of South Asian heritage, Mr. Javid, joined the cabinet.In part, the gains in government by people of color reflect social change and advances through education. On average, ethnic minority pupils have outperformed white Britons at school in recent years. In every year from 2007 to 2021, white pupils had the lowest entry rate into higher education.“Cameron’s effective intervention catalyzed and sped up some that was happening in Britain,” said Mr. Katwala of British Future. He added, “In Britain we are a generation ahead of most other western European countries.”Yet critics note that the greater ethnic and gender diversity has not changed the policies of successive Conservative governments, which have grown increasingly hard-line on immigration and often embraced tax cuts and other economic policies that tend to favor wealthy people.Ms. Truss has acknowledged that her most notable tax cut proposal — a reversal of last April’s increase in national insurance rates — would disproportionately benefit those with higher incomes, since they pay the most taxes.“To look at everything through the lens of redistribution, I believe, is wrong,” Ms. Truss said to the BBC last Sunday, in what some noted was a full-throated defense of “trickle-down” economics. “What I’m about is about growing the economy and growing the economy benefits everybody.”Ms. Truss facing questions on Wednesday in a photograph released by Parliament.Jessica Taylor/UK Parliament/EPA, via ShutterstockProfessor Andrews, from Birmingham City University, said the Conservatives were practicing a particularly cynical form of identity politics by promoting the diversity among its senior leaders, while also advancing retrograde policies.Mr. Katwala argued that diversity at the top of politics doesn’t do anything automatically, but can shift attitudes by providing role models and “makes a difference in what your expectations are at a societal level.” The example he cited was that of Britain’s first female prime minister, Margaret Thatcher, who came to power in 1979.“I don’t think she had a policy agenda that was good for women or any ambition to promote women,” Mr. Katwala said. “Yet when Liz Truss was at school she saw that there was a woman in Downing Street.” More

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      Do You Think Your Newfound Popularity Has Something to Do With Politics?

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      We’re getting Senate serious, people. And it’s all about you. The candidates need you, even if your home state doesn’t have a real nail-biter. (Chuck Schumer is going to be re-elected in New York. You heard it here first.)No matter where you’ve been over the summer, I bet you spent some of your time plowing through emails from Senate hopefuls asking you for money.It can get a tad … dispiriting. You wake up and take a look at your inbox. When you see there are over 50 new messages waiting, you have to assume that a few are actually from people you know.Nah. The one titled “Dinner Plans” isn’t about date night. Catherine Cortez Masto, the senator from Nevada, wants you to know that she and her husband just finished eating, and that while he’s doing the dishes, she’s got time to share a quick fund-raising request.(Let’s at least rejoice that no male Democratic senator will dare write you saying he’s reaching out while his wife cleans up the kitchen.)Last weekend, John Fetterman, the Democratic Senate candidate in Pennsylvania, was so engrossed in the meaning of Labor Day that he announced he’d decided to celebrate by not emailing anybody on Monday. (“… and that means we need today’s fund-raising to make up the difference.”)And when Labor Day did arrive, Fetterman …A. Took the day off and spent it watching “Sopranos” reruns.B. Challenged his staff to a Wordle competition.C. Wrote “I know I said I wasn’t going to email you today, but I want to share some thoughts.”Yeah, I know you know it’s “I know….”Val Demings, who’s running for Senate in Florida, sent me way more letters in August than anyone in my family did, all about her desperate need for funds to win what sounded like a very, very, very hard-fought primary — which, it turned out, she won with 84 percent of the vote. Demings piled up more than $47 million, some of which she still has on hand for her race against Marco Rubio.This is not a bad thing. I’ll bet her primary donors won’t mind having their money used to knock off Senator Rubio, a raving foe of abortion rights who recently called the Mar-a-Lago document scandal a “storage” issue.Of course, despite her big haul, Demings is right back blowing the emergency whistle. “I’m sorry to crowd your inbox, friend,” she wrote on Wednesday, warning that her campaign was “still short of our upcoming midnight fund-raising goal.”Cynics might presume that no candidate has ever, in history, actually reached a fund-raising goal. Really, do you ever remember getting a note saying: “Thanks, guys! We’ve got all the money we need now! Give to your pet shelter.”You do have to feel some sympathy — Senate campaigns are wicked expensive. The question is whether you should respond to this barrage of email requests for donations. The downside, as you probably suspect, is that it will make you an even more popular target.But do you want to tell all these candidates that if they need money, they’d better go to the PACs and corporate sponsors? Come on.“This is right now a kind of necessary evil,” Daniel Weiner of the Brennan Center said.“It’s the choice between a couple of wealthy donors or grass-roots fund-raising.”So if you’re reading all the stories about the critical Senate races in places like Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, it’s hard to tell yourself they’re none of your business. We’re talking about who controls the Senate — not to mention whether the nation will be spending another two years obsessing over the mind and mood of Joe Manchin.But it’s also hard to make a donation and keep your name from being given to — or purchased by — other campaigns. As it stands, this information is just another commodity. Sure, the Federal Election Commission could limit the sale of email lists. “But that’s going to be a bit of an uphill battle,” said Weiner, who spends a large part of his parental visits cleaning out his mother’s backed-up inbox.You can get yourself off any individual candidate’s list — there should be an “unsubscribe” option somewhere at the bottom of every plea. Or, if you’re not obsessive about keeping your inbox tidy, you can just ignore the emails and let them stack up — my husband is closing in on 85,000.I’m a deleter but also a kind of collector. Some of these campaigns do have particular … personalities.For instance, Tim Ryan, the Democrats’ Senate candidate in Ohio, is a mega-mailer who appears to be in a serious funk. “This is BAD,” began one of his recent missives, along with another announcing “A HUGE setback.” And, perhaps most distressing from the readers’ side, one that promised, “This is the longest email I’ll ever send you.”Don’t over-worry, Ryan fans — he’s doing better than expected in a state that’s become very tough for his party. And remember, this is the season when candidates try to sound as desperate as possible.Anyhow, it’s a good week for getting involved. We’re coming to the big finale. Look around and see who you’d like to help. Doesn’t have to be the Senate. Although, unless you have a deep personal connection, it’s probably OK to ignore all those requests from candidates for lieutenant governor.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      On Brazil’s Bicentennial, Bolsonaro Softens Campaign Rhetoric

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      President Jair Bolsonaro called his supporters and the military to the streets to celebrate Brazil’s 200th anniversary. Then he softened his campaign tone.RIO DE JANEIRO — On the 200th anniversary of Brazil’s independence, President Jair Bolsonaro had roughly half the country celebrating and half the country on edge.Tanks rolled down the streets of São Paulo, the country’s largest city, on Wednesday. Warships paraded off the coast of Rio de Janeiro. Jets soared over the nation’s capital, Brasília. And more than a million of Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters took to the streets across the vast nation, draped in the green and yellow of Brazil’s flag.For months, the bicentennial had been billed as a test of Brazil’s democracy.The left in Brazil feared that Mr. Bolsonaro would use the moment to declare war on Brazil’s democratic institutions and preview an attempt to hold onto power if he loses the presidential election next month. The right said it would simply be a peaceful Independence Day celebration — with a clear tilt toward the nation’s president — as it had been in years past.In the end, the atmosphere was more of a party than an uprising. And Mr. Bolsonaro — who for months has made worrisome comments about the security of the elections and his willingness to accept the results — took a markedly softer tack in two speeches to his supporters.An aircraft team performing acrobatics over Copacabana beach during Independence Day celebrations in Rio de Janeiro.Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesHe touted what he said were his accomplishments — cheap fuel, relatively low inflation — and focused on campaign promises, including keeping abortion and drugs illegal and fighting what he calls “gender ideology,” or the movement to re-examine the concept of gender.Perhaps his most forceful comments were calling his political rivals “evil” and warning that they would try to break the laws in the Constitution. “Wait for the re-election and see if everyone plays by the rules,” he said. At one point, he appeared to reflect on his past comments: “We all change. We all improve. We can all be better in the future.”The shift in tone was in line with advice Mr. Bolsonaro has been receiving from some senior advisers, who have warned him that attacking the country’s elections systems and democratic institutions is not particularly popular with the moderate voters he needs to win over to prevail in October’s election, according to one senior administration official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss confidential meetings.There have also been recent signs of a truce between election officials and Brazil’s armed forces, which have backed Mr. Bolsonaro’s claims that Brazil’s elections systems are vulnerable.Mr. Bolsonaro and his supporters have repeatedly claimed, without evidence, that the election in Brazil will be rigged.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesYet Mr. Bolsonaro has shifted tones frequently in the past. The morning before the bicentennial celebrations, he was casting doubt on Brazil’s voting machines in an interview with a right-wing news network. And last Independence Day, his speech caused a brief institutional crisis after he said he would not respect the decisions of one Supreme Court justice. Days later, he walked those comments back.The election, pitting Mr. Bolsonaro against the former leftist president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, will be one of the most closely watched votes in Latin America in decades. Brazilians will cast their ballots on Oct. 2 and, if no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote, again on Oct. 30 in a runoff. Mr. da Silva has held a steady and comfortable lead in the polls.Mr. Bolsonaro, a right-wing nationalist, has made attacks on Brazil’s Supreme Court and its elections systems central to his political rhetoric for years. He has argued, with little evidence, that Brazil’s electronic voting machines are vulnerable to fraud, and he has accused several Supreme Court justices of political persecution..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}What we consider before using anonymous sources. Do the sources know the information? What’s their motivation for telling us? Have they proved reliable in the past? Can we corroborate the information? Even with these questions satisfied, The Times uses anonymous sources as a last resort. The reporter and at least one editor know the identity of the source.Learn more about our process.Those judges cleared corruption charges against Mr. da Silva, freeing him from prison and allowing him to run in this year’s election. They have forced social networks to take down inflammatory or false posts from Mr. Bolsonaro and his supporters (as well as from Mr. da Silva). And they are investigating Mr. Bolsonaro and his allies in a number of cases, including for accusations of spreading misinformation and leaking classified information.One judge, Alexandre de Moraes, who is also Brazil’s new elections chief, stoked tensions further last month when he ordered several prominent businessmen’s homes to be searched, their bank accounts to be frozen and some of their social-media accounts to be blocked. His evidence supporting the action was a series of leaked text messages that suggested the businessmen would support a military coup if Mr. da Silva won the presidency.A military parade on Wednesday commemorating the 200th anniversary of Brazilian independence in São Paulo.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesMr. Bolsonaro has called Mr. Moraes’s actions against the businessmen a gross abuse of power. On Wednesday, he said the men’s privacy was violated. Earlier in the day, one of those businessmen, Luciano Hang, the owner of a Brazilian department-store chain, stood between Mr. Bolsonaro and the president of Portugal for a period as they watched the military parade in Brasília.Mr. Bolsonaro had called his supporters to the streets to celebrate “our sacred liberty.” Political analysts and leaders on the left had worried about the prospects of violence; a group of Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters had tried and failed to get past the barricades of the Supreme Court during similar Independence Day celebrations last year.Yet the festivities were peaceful. There were families with children, older people in wheelchairs, and vendors selling beer, snacks, Brazilian flags and shirts with Mr. Bolsonaro’s face. Authorities had increased security, including deploying snipers and drones, and there were few signs that supporters were planning to challenge the country’s institutions beyond chants that Mr. da Silva belonged in jail and that Mr. Moraes should be impeached.Despite Mr. Bolsonaro’s toned-down rhetoric, his supporters still wanted to focus on the Supreme Court and the voting machines.“The Supreme Court is supposed to be the guardian of the Constitution, and yet every day they’re finding a new way to rip it up,” said Gabriel Miguel, 32, a real-estate lawyer draped in a Brazilian flag and wearing a camouflage hat. He accused Mr. da Silva’s party of cheating in past elections, and said there would be consequences if they attempted fraud this year. “They wouldn’t dare to do anything against democracy,” he said.Supporters of Mr. Bolsonaro in São Paulo on Wednesday, where merchants peddled Bolsonaro-related items.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesMany Brazilians on the left accused Mr. Bolsonaro and his supporters of co-opting Brazil’s bicentennial celebrations for a political event. Mr. da Silva told his supporters to instead join him for a rally in Rio on Thursday.Mr. Bolsonaro arrived at his speech in Rio on a motorcycle, leading a parade of motorcycles driven by supporters. Such “motociatas,” or motorcycle rallies, have been a hallmark of his political brand, featured prominently in his campaign videos, and his way of visiting areas of Brazil outside major population centers.In Brasília, he watched the military parade from a stage with his wife, Michelle, and a phalanx of government and military officials. “We are here to fulfill God’s calling,” Michelle Bolsonaro told the crowd. “The enemy shall not win.”In his speech there, Mr. Bolsonaro continued his strategy of making his masculinity a central part of his campaign. “I’ve been telling single men, singles who are tired of being unhappy, find a woman,” he said. “A princess. Marry her.” He then kissed Michelle.The crowd began chanting “imbrochável,” a slightly vulgar Portuguese word that translates roughly to “never limp” that Mr. Bolsonaro has adopted as part of his political brand.Mr. Bolsonaro joined the crowd and chanted: “Never limp! Never limp! Never limp!”More than a million supporters of Mr. Bolsonaro turned out across the country on Wednesday, including in São Paulo.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesAndré Spigariol contributed reporting from Brasília, and Lis Moriconi from Rio de Janeiro. More

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      Your Thursday Briefing: Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping Likely to Meet

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      Plus India’s growing economy and China’s “zero-Covid” trap.“I hope to see Chairman Xi Jinping soon,” Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, said.Pool photo by Greg BakerPutin and Xi are expected to meetVladimir Putin, Russia’s leader, said yesterday that he expected to meet next week with Xi Jinping, his counterpart in China.Putin will attend a gathering of Asian leaders in Uzbekistan on Sept. 15 and 16. Chinese officials did not immediately confirm that Xi would attend; he has not left China since the start of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. But Russia’s ambassador to China described the session as the leaders’ “first full-fledged summit during the pandemic.”An in-person conversation could help the Kremlin expand its strengthening partnership with China. Russia reoriented its economy toward Asia after European and American countries severed economic ties with Moscow after its invasion of Ukraine.Context: Putin said he also hoped to have a joint meeting with the president of Mongolia, where Russia is considering building a natural gas pipeline that would reach China.Diplomacy: Beijing has not endorsed the invasion, but it has echoed Kremlin talking points in describing the U.S. as the “main instigator” of the conflict and provided Russia with much-needed economic support. Russia has offered geopolitical backing to China, including in the escalating tensions around Taiwan.Other updates:In a speech, Putin appeared to brush off the toll of the war, which U.S. officials estimate has killed or wounded 80,000 Russian soldiers. “We have not lost anything and will not lose anything,” he said.European countries are growing more confident that they can move away from Russia’s fossil fuels. Yesterday, the European Commission said it would ask countries to approve a price cap on Russian gas.Despite the war, daily life in Moscow seems almost unchanged.India’s economy must support 1.4 billion people.Atul Loke for The New York TimesIndia’s resilient economyIndia’s government expects the economy to grow 7 percent or more this year. That’s more than double the projections for global growth, which has slowed sharply as major economies stall.The rapid expansion partly reflects the depths to which the economy had fallen during the most devastating shocks of the pandemic, which forced an exodus of laborers from cities. It also reflects the nature of India’s economy, which is partially insulated from global trends because it is driven more by local demand than exports.Many also credit a suite of government policies — including increased public investment, relief to debtors and credit guarantees — which have helped keep inflation relatively in check and cushion the public from economic shocks. And discounted oil from Russia, against the wishes of Western allies, have helped buffer rising energy prices.The State of the WarZaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant: After United Nations inspectors visited the Russian-controlled facility last week amid continuing shelling and fears of a looming nuclear catastrophe, the organization released a report calling for Russia and Ukraine to halt all military activity around the complex.An Expanding Military: Though President Vladimir V. Putin ordered a sharp increase in the size of Russia’s armed forces, he seems reluctant to declare a draft. Here is why.Russia’s Military Supplies: According to newly declassified American intelligence, Russia is buying millions of artillery shells and rockets from North Korea — a sign that global sanctions have severely restricted its supply chains and forced Moscow to turn to pariah states.Far From the War: Though much of Russia’s effort on the battlefield has not gone as Mr. Putin had planned, at home he has mostly succeeded in shielding Russians from the hardships of war — no draft, no mass funerals, no feelings of loss or conflict.Data: India’s economy is now the fifth largest economy in the world. It surpassed Britain, its former colonizer.Challenges: India’s economy remains unable to create enough jobs for the waves of educated young people who enter the labor force each year, and its growth remains top-heavy, analysts said. Growth is projected to slow next year to about 6 percent.In Chengdu, roads were nearly empty as a lockdown continued.CNS, via Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesChina’s “zero Covid” bindAlmost every country in the world has moved past Covid restrictions. But tens of millions of people in China are again under some form of lockdown as the country continues its total commitment to fighting the coronavirus.Economic and social costs are mounting. Youth unemployment reached a record 20 percent in August, according to official statistics. But Beijing has backed itself into a corner.It has repeatedly prioritized politics over science: China has been relying only on homegrown vaccines, which are less effective than foreign ones. And buoyed by its early success at containment, Beijing was slow to encourage shots, leaving a disproportionate number of older people unvaccinated.Since few Chinese people have natural immunity, the risks of loosening controls may be even higher. “That sort of makes the zero-Covid policy self-sustaining,” a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations said.Politics: Xi Jinping, the country’s leader, has tied support for the “zero Covid” policy to support for the Communist Party, ahead of a meeting in October where he is all but assured to extend his rule.THE LATEST NEWSNatural Disasters in AsiaXi Jinping, China’s leader, personally ordered that the government will “spare no effort to rescue” people.Ye Xiaolong/Xinhua, via Associated PressThe death toll from the earthquake in southwestern China has risen to 74, The Associated Press reports. People in Chengdu, which is under lockdown, were prevented from leaving their homes even as their buildings shook.At least 10 people died after Typhoon Hinnamnor hit South Korea, BBC reports.Flooding in Pakistan damaged Mohenjo-daro, a UNESCO World Heritage site that is at least 4,500 years old, The South China Morning Post reports. Reuters reports that Shehbaz Sharif, the prime minister, said some areas look “like a sea.”Other Asia and Pacific NewsFive speech therapists in Hong Kong were found guilty of sedition, Reuters reports. Authorities said they planned to publish anti-government children’s books.At least 32 people died in a fire in a karaoke parlor in Vietnam, BBC reports.Archaeologists found a 31,000-year-old skeleton in Borneo, which appeared to have the earliest known evidence of surgery, The Guardian reports.The Japanese yen continues to slide, Bloomberg reports. It is on track for its worst year on record.Around the World“It is great to be back,” Barack Obama said at the ceremony.Doug Mills/The New York TimesThe White House unveiled the long-delayed official portraits of Barack and Michelle Obama.Liz Truss, Britain’s new prime minister, is assembling a racially diverse but ideologically uniform cabinet. Most are conservatives loyal to her.France expelled a Moroccan imam accused of hate speech after a legal fight and debate over civil liberties.What Else Is Happening“I feel like I’ve let so many people down,” Nick Kyrgios said. Julian Finney/Getty ImagesNick Kyrgios, the temperamental Australian, lost at the U.S. Open after beating Daniil Medvedev, the top seed.Apple unveiled its new iPhone and expanded its line of smartwatches.Jaap van Zweden, the New York Philharmonic’s music director, will lead the Seoul Philharmonic Orchestra.A Morning ReadPresident Xi Jinping, in his trademark blue wind jacket with oversize trousers, has not been seen as a fashion influencer. Until now.Li Xueren/Xinhua, via Associated PressYoung men in China are donning an understated, middle-aged “office and bureau style”: Oversized trousers, dull colors, maybe a small briefcase.Some trend followers may be poking fun at China’s conformity. But others are earnest: They say that the unabashedly conservative look suggests a stable career path and a respectable lifestyle — sort of a Communist Party version of preppy.Lives lived: Dr. Ronald Glasser, a U.S. Army physician, wrote the acclaimed book “365 Days” about wounded soldiers. He died last month at 83.ARTS AND IDEASBooker finalistsSix novels have been named finalists for this year’s Booker Prize. Several of them use humor to address painful chapters of history: In “Glory,” the Zimbabwean author NoViolet Bulawayo writes about the fall of an African dictator from the perspective of talking animals. Percival Everett’s story of Black detectives, “The Trees,” lampoons the inescapable nature of American racism.The authors come from four continents and have a wide range of styles — from quiet, introspective fiction to fantasy. “The prize is a moment for everyone to pause and to marvel at what English as a language can actually do,” Neil MacGregor, the chair of this year’s judges, said.Read more about the finalists.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookDavid Malosh for The New York TimesThis baek kimchi jjigae, or white kimchi stew, is deeply savory with a gingery bite.What to Listen toTake five minutes to experience Alice Coltrane’s spiritual jazz.What to Read“Strangers to Ourselves,” by the New Yorker writer Rachel Aviv, is an intimate and revelatory account of mental illness.Now Time to PlayPlay today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Dead Sea and Caspian Sea, despite their names (five letters).Here are today’s Wordle and today’s Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you next time. — AmeliaP.S. The Times is launching a new team focused on data analysis of U.S. elections.The latest episode of “The Daily” is on the nuclear plant standoff in Ukraine.You can reach Amelia and the team at briefing@nytimes.com. More

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      Blackpool Shows Challenges for New U.K. Leader Liz Truss

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      Blackpool contains one of the most deprived areas to turn to the Conservatives in Britain’s last general election. But with costs rising, there are already signs of cracks in that support.BLACKPOOL, England — The famed annual light show still illuminates the sky each night in the seaside town of Blackpool in England’s northwest, having survived the nationwide effort to conserve energy. But beneath the glitter, the evidence of decades of decline is everywhere.The signs on the small hotels that line long stretches of the coastline have faded, and “vacancy” notices flash in their front windows. Shuttered storefronts‌ dot‌ the roads in the center of town. The doorways of defunct nightclubs are crowded with those sleeping rough.Liz Truss, who took over as Britain’s prime minister on Tuesday, will have no shortage of issues to address in a country facing grave economic crises. On Thursday, Ms. Truss is set to announce a plan to limit the sharp rise in energy costs.But the most daunting challenges will come in towns like Blackpool, already one of the most deprived in England, according to government statistics.Blackpool South, where the popular Pleasure Beach amusement park stands, long supported the Labour Party but switched to backing the Conservative Party in the 2019 election that brought Boris Johnson to power. It was one of the poorest areas of England to switch parties.But with costs for nearly everything rising, and worries that energy bills could skyrocket to thousands of pounds a year for the average household, there are already indications of cracks in the Conservative coalition.Liz Truss after winning the Conservative Party leadership in London on Monday. She has promised relief for struggling towns like Blackpool.Frank Augstein/Associated Press“I do not think that having Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak would have made any difference to the economy of Blackpool,” said Ava Makepeace, a resident, referring to Ms. Truss’s opponent in the leadership race that ended this week in her victory.Ms. Makepeace, 51, was critical of Conservative policies, and said that Brexit, which Blackpool overwhelmingly favored in a 2016 referendum, had also had a negative effect on the town.“No one can get decent staff anymore,” she said of the restaurants and hotels that had relied on overseas workers. “And poverty in certain areas of central Blackpool are the worst they have ever been.”The Fall of Boris Johnson, ExplainedCard 1 of 5The Fall of Boris Johnson, ExplainedTurmoil at Downing Street. More

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      Democrats Fret as Stacey Abrams Struggles in Georgia Governor’s Race

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      NEWNAN, Ga. — Georgia Democrats have grown increasingly pessimistic about Stacey Abrams’s chances of ousting Gov. Brian Kemp from office, pointing to her struggles to rally key parts of her party’s coalition and her inability to appeal to a slice of moderate Republican voters who can decide the state’s elections.Public and private polls have consistently shown her trailing Mr. Kemp, a Republican seeking a second term. And, in a particularly worrying sign for Ms. Abrams, polls also show she is drawing less support than the other high-profile Democrat on the ballot, Senator Raphael Warnock, who is seeking a first full term.The gap between the two Democrats, which is within the margin of error in some recent surveys and as wide as 10 points in others, highlights the extent of her struggles. Though she is beloved by Democratic voters, she has lost some ground with Black men, who provided crucial backing in her narrow loss to Mr. Kemp in 2018. And while Mr. Warnock draws some support from Republican moderates, Ms. Abrams — who has been vilified more by the G.O.P. than any other statewide figure — has shown little sign of peeling off significant numbers of disaffected Republicans.Ms. Abrams’s standing — consistently trailing Mr. Kemp in polls by around five percentage points — has alarmed Democrats who have celebrated her as the master strategist behind Georgia’s Democratic shift.For years, she worked to register and turn out Democratic voters, narrowly losing her first bid for governor in 2018 and helping fuel President Biden’s victory in 2020. Now, her struggles have some Georgia Democrats wondering if the Abrams model — seeking to expand the universe of voters to fit her politics — is truly better than trying to capture 50 percent of the voters who exist now.“Right now, people are concerned — kind of looking sideways,” said Erick Allen, a Democratic state representative, who said he hoped enthusiasm would pick up in the fall sprint. “There’s a lot of energy around the Warnock campaign. I’m not sure if the same energy that we had four years ago is around the Abrams campaign yet.”In an interview last week, Ms. Abrams defended her strategy, noting that her Democratic turnout operation helped carry the state for Mr. Biden, Mr. Warnock and Senator Jon Ossoff in the 2020 election cycle. “I imagine an electorate that is possible, not the electorate as if the election was held today,” she said.She and her top aides believe her standing is improving, buoyed by voter anger over the Supreme Court decision overturning the federal right to an abortion. She is planning a broader campaign to highlight Mr. Kemp’s signing of a 2019 law — which went into effect in July — that bans abortion in Georgia after the sixth week of pregnancy.Ms. Abrams’s allies said the comparisons between her and Mr. Warnock overlooked stark differences. Ms. Abrams is a Black woman contending with sexist stereotypes about leadership, they note. She is also running against an incumbent governor with a well-built political apparatus, while Mr. Warnock’s rival, the former football star Herschel Walker, is a political novice. (Both Mr. Kemp and Mr. Walker’s campaigns declined to comment.)“We have to work harder as women, as African American women,” said former Mayor Shirley Franklin of Atlanta, who added that women “just have a harder time capturing the imagination as executives.”The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsWith the primaries winding down, both parties are starting to shift their focus to the general election on Nov. 8.Battleground Pennsylvania: Few states feature as many high-stakes, competitive races as Pennsylvania, which has emerged as the nation’s center of political gravity.The Dobbs Decision’s Effect: Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the number of women signing up to vote has surged in some states and the once-clear signs of a Republican advantage are hard to see.How a G.O.P. Haul Vanished: Last year, the campaign arm of Senate Republicans was smashing fund-raising records. Now, most of the money is gone.Digital Pivot: At least 10 G.O.P. candidates in competitive races have updated their websites to minimize their ties to former President Donald J. Trump or to adjust their stances on abortion.The Abrams and Warnock campaigns have pursued different strategies. Mr. Warnock is betting on winning over just enough moderate, white Republican voters to get himself past Mr. Walker. Ms. Abrams needs a big turnout from base Democrats and new voters to oust Mr. Kemp.Last week, Mr. Warnock demurred when asked by The New York Times during a news conference if he would campaign with Ms. Abrams, delivering the sort of practiced non-answer Democrats have been reciting when asked if they would welcome help from an unpopular President Biden.“The pundits want to know who I’m campaigning for and who I’m campaigning with,” Mr. Warnock said. “I’m focused on my campaign.”The next morning, Ms. Abrams announced she would join Mr. Warnock for a campaign stop that very afternoon.“We need Stacey Abrams,” Mr. Warnock told supporters at the event, calling her “a visionary leader” and “my dear friend.”Senator Raphael Warnock at a barbershop in Newnan, Ga. Polls suggest Mr. Warnock is ahead in his race, while Ms. Abrams is struggling to keep pace.Erik S Lesser/EPA, via ShutterstockDemocrats have largely kept quiet on their concerns about Ms. Abrams’s campaign. But several county elected officials and community leaders in Georgia have privately expressed their worries to the campaign directly, according to interviews with more than two dozen Democratic officials who asked not to be named discussing private conversations. They have complained that the campaign was slow to reach out to key constituencies and underestimated Mr. Kemp’s strength in an already difficult year for Democratic candidates.Ms. Abrams has in recent weeks focused attention on winning support from Black men, voters who have inched toward Republicans during the Trump era. More