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      Imran Khan Dominates Punjab Vote, Deepening Pakistan Turmoil

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      Mr. Khan’s political party won 15 of the 20 seats in the country’s most populous province, which has often served as a bellwether for national politics.ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Less than four months after Prime Minister Imran Khan was ousted from power in Pakistan, his party has won a sweeping victory in elections in the most populous province, proving that Mr. Khan remains a powerful force and adding to the political uncertainty that has embroiled the country since his defeat.Mr. Khan’s political party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, on Sunday won 15 of the 20 seats contested in Punjab, a province that has often served as a bellwether for national politics.The province is home to more than half of Pakistan’s 200 million people and for years has been a political stronghold for the family of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who took over in April after Mr. Khan was ousted in a no-confidence vote that shook Pakistan’s fragile democracy.The elections Sunday were seen as a litmus test for Mr. Sharif’s government, a coalition of several parties that has struggled to gain popular support amid a cratering economy and to compete with the political momentum Mr. Khan’s party, known as P.T.I., has gained on the campaign trail since his ouster.“The P.T.I. has demonstrated that it has mobilized real support in the wake of the vote of no-confidence against Khan, while the ruling coalition has hemorrhaged support,” said Madiha Afzal, a fellow at the Brookings Institution. “The ruling coalition will have to fundamentally rethink its strategy and approach and perform well on economic indicators to have a shot at the next general election.”In a series of rallies that have attracted tens of thousands of people in recent weeks, Mr. Khan has accused the United States and the country’s powerful military establishment of orchestrating a conspiracy to topple his government. American officials, Mr. Sharif and the military have denied those accusations.A polling station in Lahore, in Punjab Province, on Sunday.Arif Ali/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesBut Mr. Khan’s message has resonated with people across the country, and the election results were widely viewed as a repudiation of the powerful military establishment and a reaction to the worsening economic conditions that have squeezed lower- and middle-income families.On Monday, Mr. Khan renewed his call for the government to hold general elections earlier than 2023, when they are currently scheduled. “The only way forward from here is to hold fair & free elections,” he said on Twitter. “Any other path will only lead to greater political uncertainty & further economic chaos.”Since taking office, Mr. Shehbaz’s government has had to walk a fine line balancing the tough measures needed to get the economy back on track with his party’s need to retain popular support ahead of the next general elections.Amid inflation that has reached its highest level in 14 years, Mr. Sharif has had to raise electricity rates, increase fuel prices and end government subsidies to revive a $6 billion bailout program from the International Monetary Fund. The bailout program was announced in 2019 and later suspended after Mr. Khan’s government failed to meet some of the loan conditions, like cutting energy subsidies.Last week, the I.M.F. and Pakistan’s government announced a staff-level agreement that paves the way for the disbursement of $1.17 billion to help avert a potential default. But the hugely unpopular economic measures to avoid default have spurred a public backlash against the ruling party, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, and proved a key factor in Mr. Khan’s success in the Punjab elections, analysts say.“Not all of this is Mr. Sharif’s fault,” Nusrat Javeed, a veteran journalist, and political analyst based in Islamabad, said in an interview. “His government is facing the brunt of an accumulated mess of all previous governments.”But for most voters, Mr. Javeed said, what matters is that since April, “long hours of power outages are back, petrol has gone out of reach, and electricity prices are constantly being increased.”Since his ouster, Mr. Khan has capitalized on that dissatisfaction as he embarked on a new campaign trail. In recent weeks, he has frequented TV talk shows and carried out an unrelenting social media campaign across Twitter, Facebook Live, YouTube, and Instagram Live.A market in Lahore. Inflation has reached its highest level in 14 years.Arif Ali/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesMr. Khan has also accused the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate, of meddling in the election process. During campaign speeches over the past few weeks, Mr. Khan would often claim that “Mr. X,” a code name he came up with for the provincial I.S.I. chief, was trying to rig the elections.On Twitter, P.T.I. supporters have heaped unprecedented criticism and ridicule at the army chief, Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa, who was once considered to be a Khan supporter. General Bajwa appeared to withdraw his support for Mr. Khan last year after the two disagreed over military appointments. Angry P.T.I. supporters, in Pakistan and out of the country, have accused General Bajwa of giving a nod to the change of government in April.The anti-military rhetoric is a distinct shift for Mr. Khan, who ascended the political ranks with the support of the country’s powerful military. His victory in the 2018 elections was attributed by many of his rivals to a back-room deal struck with the military establishment.“His anti-establishment stance, in particular, is notable,” said Ms. Afzal, the Brookings fellow. “It represents a departure for Khan, and also for his voter base.”Government officials said Mr. Khan’s victory on Sunday disproved his accusations of election rigging and military interference in the current political cycle.“This is the first election in history the transparency of which even the worst political opponents cannot point a finger at,” Marriyum Aurangzeb, the county’s information minister, said.Still, the electoral loss on Sunday has added pressure on the ruling coalition, which has struggled to find its bearing after coming to power in a precarious position.Security outside a polling station in Lahore on Sunday.Rahat Dar/EPA, via ShutterstockThe coalition frequently clashed before ousting Mr. Khan and has struggled to remain cohesive.There is a growing perception in the country that Mr. Sharif is unable to inspire popular support and lacks the charisma of his elder brother Nawaz Sharif, who served as prime minister three times, analysts say. The younger Sharif has a reputation for his administrative skills, while his brother was known for pulling large crowds onto the street and into the voting booth.And the government, which was chosen by Parliament after Mr. Khan’s ouster, has no electoral mandate and has faced mounting pressure to hold fresh general elections in the coming months.Mr. Sharif’s party “is left in a Catch-22 situation,” said Abdul Basit, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore. “If it hangs onto power in the center,” he said, “Shahbaz Sharif will be a lame duck prime minister, while early elections will be a political suicide.” More

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      Prime Minister Race in Britain Remains Unsettled in Wake of Johnson’s Downfall

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      Rishi Sunak, the former chancellor of the Exchequer, is the current front-runner, but Penny Mordaunt, a junior trade minister, is making a surprisingly strong run for the leadership position.LONDON — The last time Britain’s Conservative Party elected a new leader, Boris Johnson dominated the contest from wire to wire, a political celebrity so famous that many voters just called him Boris.Three years later, the oddsmakers’ favorite is Penny Mordaunt, a junior trade minister so obscure that some voters have told pollsters that they confuse her with another single-name English star: the singer Adele.Ms. Mordaunt’s sudden surge in popularity reflects the wide-open, topsy-turvy nature of the race. And it reveals the shadow that Mr. Johnson still casts over British politics. Ms. Mordaunt’s lack of association with the recently deposed prime minister is one of her calling cards: She promotes herself as a fresh start after the ceaseless drama of the past three years. Weary Tory lawmakers are responding.Strictly speaking, Ms. Mordaunt, 49, is not the current front-runner: That status belongs to Rishi Sunak, the former chancellor of the Exchequer, who won the backing of 101 lawmakers in the second round of voting on Thursday. Ms. Mordaunt was second, with 83 votes. Conservative legislators will hold additional ballots early this week, before advancing two candidates to a vote of the party’s rank-and-file membership, the results of which will be announced in early September.Provided she makes the shortlist of two, however, Ms. Mordaunt looms as a formidable contender. In a poll of members last week, she finished far ahead of Mr. Sunak in a head-to-head matchup. She also easily outpolled the No. 3 candidate, Liz Truss, who is Mr. Johnson’s foreign secretary and has refused to disavow him. Ms. Mordaunt, by contrast, is neither a Johnson loyalist nor an insurgent figure.“She has the best of both worlds,” said Tim Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London. “She can’t be accused of disloyalty on the one hand, and on the other, she has sufficient distance from Johnson because she played such a minor role in government that she’s not tainted by association.”Rishi Sunak, the former chancellor of the Exechequer, has faced attacks from allies of Boris Johnson for resigning his position two weeks ago.Alberto Pezzali/Associated PressVernon Bogdanor, a professor of government at King’s College London, said Ms. Mordaunt’s low profile makes her an attractive blank slate. “No one knows what her views are, and so one can attribute one’s own views to her,” he said. “The same happens in spades, in regard to the queen.”But Ms. Mordaunt’s swift rise has alarmed some critics, who say she is untested and thinly qualified for prime minister. A paratrooper’s daughter who serves in the Royal Naval Reserve, Ms. Mordaunt was defense secretary for two and a half months in 2019 and held a lesser cabinet post in charge of international development.People who have worked with her describe her as charming and sincere, but not interested in the complexities of policy. She also has very little economic experience, at a time when Britain faces a once-in-a-generation cost-of-living crisis.“She was honest and straightforward, and I thought she did care about international development,” said Alistair Burt, who was a minister in the international development department when she was there. “But it is a surprise — I wouldn’t have thought that she would be where she is.”Whether she was equipped to be prime minister, Mr. Burt said he “genuinely wouldn’t know because she hasn’t been significantly tested.”As Ms. Mordaunt’s profile has risen, the attacks on her have sharpened. David Frost, who resigned as Mr. Johnson’s Brexit negotiator last year, gave a scathing account of Ms. Mordaunt, who served as his deputy. He accused her of a poor grasp of detail and absence from her government department, and of being such a problem that he had asked the prime minister to move her to another job.Like other hard-line Brexiteers, Mr. Frost has thrown his support behind Ms. Truss, who campaigned against leaving the European Union in the 2016 referendum, but who has since converted to the cause with zeal. Ms. Mordaunt voted to leave, as did Mr. Sunak.Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, remained loyal to Mr. Johnson, which could hurt her in the leadership race.Peter Nicholls/ReutersIt is one of the paradoxes of this race that Brexiteers are opposing the two candidates who backed Brexit and are supporting the one who opposed it.Not only did Ms. Mordaunt urge Britons to vote for Brexit, but she also played a minor, though memorable, part in the campaign by warning that Turkish migrants would flock to Britain when their own country joined the European Union, something she claimed Britain would be unable to block. The statement was erroneous: Britain, like other members, had a right to veto Turkey’s membership.Brexit supporters regard her with suspicion for another reason: She voted for an ill-fated withdrawal agreement with the European Union negotiated by Prime Minister Theresa May.Ms. Mordaunt combines an interest in security and a military background with views on social issues that are mildly progressive by Tory party standards. She has spoken up in favor of the rights of transgender people, for example, a position that has gotten her into trouble with the culture warriors on the party’s right.Seeking to defuse the issue, Ms. Mordaunt said last week that transgender women “are not biological women like me, but the law recognizes them in their new gender and that’s very simple and straightforward.”In the cut-and-thrust of Tory politics, of course, it is neither.During a televised debate on Friday evening, Mr. Mordaunt came under renewed pressure on the issue, with one of her opponents, Kemi Badenoch, questioning whether she had backtracked on her earlier position. Critics said Ms. Mordaunt’s performance was wobbly and unfocused.Analysts said the unsettled nature of the contest had made it especially vicious. Mr. Sunak, the early front-runner, has come under attack by Mr. Johnson’s allies, who view his resignation less than two weeks ago, which set the stage for the prime minister’s downfall, as a betrayal. Mr. Sunak’s tax policy as chancellor was criticized by Jacob Rees-Mogg, with whom he sat in cabinet just days ago. Mr. Rees-Mogg refused to deny reports that he had described the policy, which included tax increases, as “socialist.”The Conservative Party Conference last year in Manchester, England.Neil Hall/EPA, via Shutterstock“Rishi Sunak was always going to get it in the neck,” Professor Bale said.Ms. Truss, who did not resign from Mr. Johnson’s cabinet, faces the danger of being the most closely associated with him. Critics said her campaign had gotten off to a less-than-stirring start. She is not viewed as a charismatic campaigner, despite her solid credentials. One Liberal Democratic lawmaker likened her to Hillary Clinton, while Ms. Mordaunt, the lawmaker said, more resembled Bill Clinton.Unlike Ms. Mordaunt, Ms. Truss has significant economic experience. Yet Ms. Mordaunt’s weakness in that area has yet to hurt her campaign, despite the soaring inflation and specter of a recession that haunts Britain. A lack of focus on the future, analysts said, was another legacy of Mr. Johnson’s distracting tenure.“He’s left the Conservative Party deeply confused because he was trying to hold together an electoral coalition that isn’t a particularly natural one,” Professor Bale said, referring to traditional Conservative voters in the south and working-class supporters in the north of England that Mr. Johnson won over from the Labour Party in 2019.“It was always going to be a case of ‘après moi, le deluge,’” he added. “When Boris Johnson eventually was forced out, there was almost inevitably going to be chaos and bad feeling because of who he was and how he acted.” More

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      Eric Adams Raises $850,000 for Re-election in 2025

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      Mayor Eric Adams has traveled across the country to court donors, receiving contributions from casino and sports betting executives.When Mayor Eric Adams was confronted last month with troubling poll numbers, he gave an optimistic interpretation: He said he had earned a C grade from many New Yorkers.In terms of combating the city’s crime problem, the mayor was less certain, giving himself a grade of incomplete.But when it comes to fund-raising, Mr. Adams would more than likely give himself an A, for effort and for results.The mayor raised more than $850,000 for his 2025 re-election campaign barely six months after taking office, according to filings with the city’s Campaign Finance Board released on Friday night.The campaign haul is a result of Mr. Adams’s traveling across the country to raise money for a second term, even as he is confronting major issues at home, from crime to soaring rents. He has held fund-raisers in Chicago and Beverly Hills and has courted wealthy donors in the Hamptons during the honeymoon stage of his first term when his popularity is still relatively high.Here’s a look at some quick takeaways from the campaign filings:The mayor’s national reachNearly half of Mr. Adams’s campaign donations — more than $400,000 — came from outside New York City, from donors in places including Palm Beach, Fla., and Santa Barbara, Calif.His trips to other cities have helped establish a national profile for Mr. Adams, who has called himself the “future of the Democratic Party” and is rumored to be interested in running for president someday, like a handful of New York City mayors before him.In March, Mr. Adams, the city’s second Black mayor, held an event in Chicago at the home of Desirée Rogers, the former White House social secretary for President Barack Obama. Ms. Rogers donated $2,500 to Mr. Adams’s campaign.The mayor had 28 total donations from Chicago, from donors including Brett Hart, the president of United Airlines; La Shawn Ford, an Illinois lawmaker; and Toi Salter, a wealth manager. Mr. Adams’s West Coast donors included Breck Eisner, the director of the 2005 film “Sahara.”“This filing shows strong support for Mayor Adams and his plans for the city,” his campaign lawyer, Vito Pitta, a prominent lobbyist, said in a statement.Attention from real estate and casino executivesNew Yorkers did not exactly open their wallets for Mr. Adams: Only $83,000 of the donations is believed to qualify for the city’s generous matching-funds program, which is designed to reward candidates who receive small-dollar donations from local residents.But given that his re-election is still more than three years away, the slow pace of small local donations is understandable.Still, some donors — specifically, leaders from real estate, casino and sports betting businesses — seemed to have more immediate reason to give to the mayor’s campaign.They included Stephen Green, a founder of SL Green Realty, one of the city’s biggest landlords, and Darcy Stacom, the head of New York City capital markets for CRBE, a major commercial real estate firm.As New York City prepares to welcome three new casinos, executives from a Hard Rock hotel and casino in Florida donated to the mayor. Sean Caffery, a casino development executive at Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino Hollywood, and Jeff Hook, another executive there, each gave $2,000. Two other Hard Rock executives, Jon Lucas and Edward Tracy, also donated.And with sports betting having recently been legalized in New York, Jason Robins, the chief executive of DraftKings, the sports betting company, and Stanton Dodge, the company’s chief legal officer, gave $2,000 to the campaign. Matt King, chief executive at Fanatics Betting and Gaming, was another donor.Fund-raisers at Osteria La Baia and Casa CiprianiMr. Adams’s campaign has spent about $100,000 so far, leaving him with $746,000 on hand.The campaign’s largest single payment was $30,000 to Suggs Solutions, a company run by his fund-raiser, Brianna Suggs. Ms. Suggs has also raised money for the Democratic Party in Brooklyn and worked for Mr. Adams when he was Brooklyn borough president.The campaign has been paying $7,500 a month to Pitta L.P., the law firm where Mr. Pitta, the campaign lawyer, is a managing partner, since February.Other payments went to fund-raisers at some of the mayor’s favorite restaurants, including $1,000 in March to Osteria La Baia, an Italian restaurant in Midtown Manhattan, and $1,600 in March to Casa Cipriani, a members’ club in Lower Manhattan.The campaign also paid for flights on JetBlue and United Airlines and for hotels, including $1,280 to the Beverly Hilton in Beverly Hills.The City Council is also getting an early startMr. Adams may have more than a passing interest in the future of the City Council, knowing that next year’s election, in which every Council seat will be on the ballot, could affect Mr. Adams’s agenda. A majority of the Council — 41 of its 51 members — sent Mr. Adams a letter this week calling on him to restore funding for schools that have faced vexing budget cuts.Adrienne Adams, the City Council speaker, led the Council in recent fund-raising, reporting about $127,000 in contributions from powerful donors that included the New York State Laborers and the Building and Construction Trades Council. Ms. Adams, a Democrat, also received $250 from John Catsimatidis, the Republican billionaire, and $1,600 from his wife, Margo.Other Council members have raised significant amounts, including Linda Lee, a member from eastern Queens, who raised $51,000; Sandra Ung, a member who represents Flushing, Queens, and raised $33,000; and Crystal Hudson and Justin Brannan, two members from Brooklyn who each raised $25,000.A PAC tied to the Partnership for New York City, an influential business group, donated to at least three Council members: Ms. Adams, Ms. Hudson and Mr. Brannan. More

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      Prosecutor Warns Georgia Officials They May Face Charges in Trump Inquiry

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      The investigation could prove to be one of the most perilous legal problems facing the former president and his allies.ATLANTA — The breadth, speed and seriousness of the criminal investigation into election meddling by former President Donald J. Trump and his associates in Georgia were underscored on Friday by the revelation that two pro-Trump state senators and the chair of the state Republican Party were sent letters by an Atlanta prosecutor informing them they could be indicted, according to a person familiar with the inquiry.The Fulton County prosecutor, Fani T. Willis, is also weighing whether to subpoena Mr. Trump himself and seek his testimony before a grand jury, just days after she subpoenaed seven of his advisers, including Rudolph W. Giuliani and Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, in an investigation into efforts to overturn Mr. Trump’s 2020 election loss in Georgia. The special grand jury is looking into a range of potentially criminal acts, including the selection of a slate of pro-Trump electors in the weeks after the election and Mr. Trump’s now-famous call to Brad Raffensperger, the Georgia secretary of state, asking him to “find” nearly 12,000 votes that would reverse his loss there.The letters to David Shafer, the Georgia Republican Party chair, and State Senators Burt Jones and Brandon Beach were first reported by Yahoo News. Neither the men nor their lawyers could be reached for comment on Friday.The potential exposure of the Republican officials could have serious ramifications in Georgia’s November elections, where Mr. Jones is the Republican nominee for lieutenant governor. On Friday, his Democratic opponent, Charlie Bailey, released a statement accusing Mr. Jones of being “anti-American and unpatriotic” for taking part in a “failed attempted overthrow of the American government.”Mr. Shafer’s fealty to Mr. Trump and his baseless claims of a stolen election have put him at odds with Gov. Brian Kemp, a Republican, as well as Mr. Raffensperger, creating an unusual schism within the state Republican Party. Both Mr. Kemp and Mr. Raffensperger easily defeated Trump-backed primary challengers this year.The Trump InvestigationsCard 1 of 8Numerous inquiries. More

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      Beto O’Rourke broke a Texas fund-raising record with a $27.6 million haul, his campaign said.

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      Beto O’Rourke set a new Texas fund-raising record for state office with a $27.6 million haul over four months in the governor’s race, his campaign announced on Friday, saying that it had outpaced Gov. Greg Abbott, the Republican incumbent, in the tightening contest.But the campaign of Mr. Abbott, who still holds a cash-on-hand advantage over Mr. O’Rourke, reported that he had raised nearly $25 million during the same period ending in June.Mr. O’Rourke’s campaign received over a half-million donations at the same time that he was staunchly critical of gun control laws in Texas after a mass shooting in May at an elementary school in Uvalde, and after the state imposed restrictions on abortions last month.Both issues have boosted the national profile of Mr. O’Rourke, a Democrat and former congressman who ran unsuccessfully for the Senate in 2018 and later for president.Mr. O’Rourke received widespread attention in May when he interrupted a news conference held by Mr. Abbott in Uvalde after an 18-year-old gunman armed with an AR-15-style rifle killed 19 children and two teachers at an elementary school. Mr. O’Rourke, who supports banning assault weapons, accused Mr. Abbott of “doing nothing” to prevent gun violence before Mr. Abbott’s allies told Mr. O’Rourke to “shut up” and said that he was an “embarrassment.”Two recent polls — one conducted by the University of Houston and one by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas in Austin — had Mr. O’Rourke within five and within six percentage points of Mr. Abbott.“We’re receiving support from people in every part of Texas,” Mr. O’Rourke said in a statement and pointed to “keeping our kids safe” and “protecting a woman’s freedom to make her own decisions about her own body, health care and future” as significant concerns.Gardner Pate, who is Mr. Abbott’s campaign chairman, said in a statement that Mr. Abbott’s re-election effort was well positioned, with nearly $46 million in cash on hand as of the end of June and having raised nearly $68 million since last June.“Our campaign has also pre-purchased more than $20 million in advertising for the fall, and begun funding an extensive block-walking program to get voters to the polls this November,” Mr. Pate said.Mr. O’Rourke’s campaign did not disclose how much cash on hand it had through June, but a February filing showed that he had nearly $6.8 million.Official campaign finance reports for Mr. O’Rourke and Mr. Abbott, due on Friday to the Texas Ethics Commission, have not yet been posted. It was not immediately clear who held the previous Texas fund-raising record for state office. More

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      Italy’s Unity Government Nears Collapse After Confidence Vote

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      A confidence vote showed potentially fatal fractures in Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s grand coalition, as the anti-establishment Five Star Movement withheld support and set off a political crisis.ROME — The broad national unity government led by Prime Minister Mario Draghi, which has expanded Italy’s influence in Europe, guided it through a successful vaccination campaign and injected competence and confidence into the country, suddenly neared collapse on Thursday as it faced a rebellion from the remnants of Italy’s recent anti-establishment past.The revolt by the mostly imploded Five Star Movement, led by Mr. Draghi’s predecessor as prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, threatened to usher in the end of a period of political stability for Italy and thrust the country back into the familiar political turmoil that has paralyzed it for decades.Mr. Draghi had opted for the confidence vote early Thursday in an effort to call Mr. Conte’s bluff as he threatened to break with the government over a relief bill for soaring energy costs and new investments, which Five Star found inadequate. It turned out that, this time, Mr. Conte, who has made repeated threats to break with the government, was not bluffing. His party withheld its support in the confidence vote, but it was not immediately clear whether it would remain a part of the government.Though the government survived — by 172 to 39 — Mr. Draghi had made clear that he would not lead a unity government that had no unity. He is now expected to meet with the country’s president, Sergio Mattarella, to discuss next steps.Mr. Mattarella may ask Mr. Draghi to present a new political program to Parliament next week, or form a new government with a simple cabinet shuffle.Mr. Draghi could also choose to resign, forcing the president to ask a different person to try to form a new government or call for early elections.Five Star, whose support crumbled after a chaotic spell running the government and Mr. Draghi’s succession, would most likely suffer terribly in such elections, and many of its members of Parliament, who are loath to lose their paychecks and pensions, would be out of a job.But as the 2023 deadline for elections draws nearer, Five Star also has less to lose, and Mr. Draghi’s government is likely to face more internecine fighting and instability. So it is not entirely surprising that the threat came from Mr. Conte.Giuseppe Conte, a former prime minister and leader of the Five Star Movement, last week. He has made a habit of issuing ultimatums to the government.Massimo Percossi/EPA, via ShutterstockMr. Conte, a lawyer plucked from obscurity by Five Star and the League to lead the government in 2018, has struggled to find his footing as a political leader of what is left of Five Star.He is still bitter, members of Parliament say, over being pushed out as prime minister in 2021, when he was replaced by Mr. Draghi, and he is desperate to rebuild a party that has wasted away, hemorrhaging half of its support.The Five Star leader who brought him in as prime minister — Luigi Di Maio, the current foreign minister — quit the party last month, taking dozens of members with him. Mr. Di Maio, a onetime firebrand, now follows in Mr. Draghi’s footsteps and speaks about the importance of NATO, clearly seeing his future in the establishment.Mr. Conte instead has struggled to signal to his unsatisfied supporters that he can deliver on their interests. But he speaks in legalistic terms, is often inconsistent and has the added headache of constantly trying to appease the party’s often inscrutable founder, Beppe Grillo.Mr. Conte has made a habit of issuing ultimatums to the government. Usually he falls in line. But this time, he did not.“The scenario has changed, we need a different phase,” Mr. Conte told reporters after failing to reach a compromise during talks with Mr. Draghi on Wednesday. “We are ready to support the government but not to sign a blank bill. Whoever accuses us of irresponsibility needs to look in their own backyard.”Among Mr. Conte’s objections to the spending priorities, he has argued that the government has not set aside enough funds for a cost of living package. Five Star — which is traditionally close to Russia and admiring of its president, Vladimir V. Putin — has also opposed sending significant military support to Ukraine in response to the Russian invasion, something Mr. Draghi strongly supports.The potential departure of Mr. Draghi opens the door to forces who are much more sympathetic to Mr. Putin, and as a result risks fracturing Europe’s united front on issues such as sanctions and refusing Russian energy.Mr. Conte, reflecting Five Star’s environmentalist roots, has also vehemently opposed using government money to build a garbage incinerator to alleviate Rome’s devastating trash problems.Mr. Conte set off the spark that brought down the government, and even the parties that have been most solidly behind Mr. Draghi did not want to get caught in the conflagration.Enrico Letta, the leader of the center-left Democratic Party, which has drastically climbed in the polls as Five Star has plummeted, applied pressure on Five Star at a party meeting when he said he would be unwilling to form a new government without them. He added that early elections were preferable if the broad coalition fell apart.Mr. Conte’s former ally, Matteo Salvini of the nationalist League party, said he, too, might pull his support from the coalition government and push for early elections if Five Star left.“If a coalition party doesn’t back a government decree that’s it, enough is enough,” Mr. Salvini said on Italian television. “It seems clear that we should go to elections.”Even so, his support has declined, while backing has increased for the hard-right Brothers of Italy party, led by Giorgia Meloni. Her party would be the greatest beneficiary of early elections, which she supports.The earliest time for that election would be autumn, which would disturb the usual drafting of Italy’s budget and create the unlikely event of Italian politicians campaigning in the summer.Gaia Pianigiani More

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      Sunak Takes the Lead to Replace Johnson as U.K. Prime Minister

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      The former chancellor of the Exchequer led a pack of candidates after the first round, while an obscure trade minister surprised in second place.LONDON — Rishi Sunak, a former chancellor of the Exchequer, stayed at the front of the pack of candidates vying to replace Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain after the first round of the Conservative Party’s leadership contest on Tuesday.But Penny Mordaunt, a relatively little-known junior trade minister, finished a strong second in the vote among Conservative lawmakers. And she has opened a commanding lead among the party’s rank-and-file members, according to a new poll, which suggested she could soon supplant Mr. Sunak as the favorite.In the secret vote, more akin to a papal conclave than a national plebiscite, 357 Conservative lawmakers cast ballots to elect their next leader, who will become the fourth prime minister of Britain in six years.Six candidates remained in the race after the first round. Two were eliminated for failing to clear the minimum threshold of support from 30 members of Parliament, including Nadhim Zahawi, who replaced Mr. Sunak as chancellor after he resigned last week in a move that set the stage for Mr. Johnson’s downfall.It was the first of multiple rounds of party ballots this week, designed to whittle the sprawling field down to two finalists. They will spend a hectic summer wooing the party’s membership — a larger, though still limited group — which will elect Mr. Johnson’s replacement in early September.The quirky nature of the process has already produced some surprises: While Mr. Sunak was expected to be the front-runner, and won a respectable 88 votes, Ms. Mordaunt’s 67 votes placed her within striking distance of him. Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, emerged as the third top-tier candidate, with 50 votes.Penny Mordaunt, a trade minister, finished a surprising second in the vote among Conservative lawmakers.Tolga Akmen/EPA, via ShutterstockIn a poll conducted by the market research firm YouGov, Ms. Mordaunt, a paratrooper’s daughter who serves in the Royal Naval Reserve, holds a wide lead among members over Mr. Sunak, Ms. Truss and all other candidates.Two younger female candidates — Kemi Badenoch, with 40 votes, and Suella Braverman, with 32 — got through, keeping their hopes alive but raising the prospect that the hard-line Brexiteer vote may coalesce behind Ms. Truss.Tom Tugendhat, the chairman of Parliament’s Foreign Affairs committee, who is running as an outsider, also survived into the second round, with 37 votes.Jeremy Hunt, a former foreign secretary who unsuccessfully challenged Mr. Johnson for leader in 2019, came in last with 18 votes. Mr. Tugendhat would hope to pick up some votes in later rounds from the centrist Mr. Hunt.Mr. Zahawi, with just 25 votes, was perhaps the day’s biggest disappointment. He had been a rising star in the party, propelled by his energetic management of the government’s rollout of coronavirus vaccines last year.The remaining six conservative leadership candidates are, clockwise from top left, Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak, Penny Mordaunt, Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman and Tom Tugendhat.Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesBut critics faulted him for acting erratically last week, first accepting a plum post from Mr. Johnson, then calling on him to resign only a day later. There were also questions about Mr. Zahawi’s business dealings, which led him to complain that he was the victim of a smear campaign.In the early days of the campaign, with so many candidates jostling for attention, the debates have been scattered and not particularly substantive. Much of the action involved horse-trading between candidates, with rising competitors eager to win over the votes of those who dropped out.To complicate the picture further, Mr. Johnson suggested that the process of replacing him could move more quickly if the second-ranked candidate bowed out after the initial rounds and the leader was elected by acclamation.Downing Street later said that if the winner was chosen on Sept. 5, which is the timetable set out by the party committee running the election, Mr. Johnson would deliver his formal resignation to Queen Elizabeth II the following day.Appearing at one of his last sessions of Prime Minister’s Questions, Mr. Johnson said he was “leaving with my head held high,” despite a drumbeat of scandals that eventually turned his party and his cabinet against him.In a sign that his rivals are already beginning to turn the page on him, the leader of the opposition Labour Party, Keir Starmer, devoted most of his questions to pressing Mr. Johnson for his views on people who have non-domicile tax status in Britain.That status is claimed by the wife of Mr. Sunak, Akshata Murty, whose father is the Indian technology billionaire Narayana Murthy. Mr. Starmer signaled that Labour would make the wealth of Mr. Sunak and his wife the centerpiece of its attack on him if he emerges as the next Tory leader.Mr. Johnson has declined to endorse any of the candidates, saying that to do so might hurt their chances. But in a lively exchange with Mr. Starmer, he predicted that any one of them would be able to “wipe the floor” with the Labour leader, whom he lampooned as “Captain Crash-a-Roony Snooze Fest.” More

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      A Surprisingly Tight Race

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      Despite Biden’s low approval ratings, Democrats are roughly tied with Republicans in the midterm polls. We explain why.My colleague Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, has spent a lot of time thinking about the changing politics of economic class in the U.S. College graduates used to favor Republicans, while blue-collar voters favored Democrats. Increasingly, though, the opposite is true.The social liberalism of Democrats — on immigration, marijuana, L.G.B.T. rights, affirmative action, abortion and more — has simultaneously attracted progressive college graduates and repelled more culturally conservative working-class voters. If you’re trying to figure out why Latino voters have shifted right in the past few years, even during the Trump presidency, this dynamic offers an explanation.In this year’s midterm elections, the changing politics of class may get supercharged, Nate notes. Why? Look at the stories in the news. Many working-class voters are frustrated over inflation and other economic disruptions, making them unhappy with the Biden administration and Democrats. Many college graduates are angry about the recent decisions from a Supreme Court dominated by Republican appointees.These attitudes are evident in the first New York Times/Siena College poll of the midterm cycle: Among registered voters who never attended college, Republicans lead by almost 20 percentage points. Among college graduates, Democrats lead by almost 30 points. One startling comparison is that Democrats lead by almost as much among white college graduates as among all voters of color.To give you a clearer sense for what these patterns mean for the likely outcome of the November midterms — and which party will control the House and the Senate for the next two years — I’m turning over the rest of today’s lead item to Nate.With President Biden’s approval rating sagging into the low 30s and nearly 80 percent of voters saying the country is headed in the wrong direction, the ingredients would seem to be in place for a Republican landslide in this year’s midterm elections.But the first Times/Siena survey of the cycle shows something else: a close, competitive race for Congress.Overall, voters prefer Democrats to control Congress over Republicans by one point among registered voters, 41 to 40 percent. Once we exclude those people who are unlikely to vote, Republicans lead by one point, 44 to 43 percent.It’s a pretty surprising result, given the circumstances. Analysts have all but written off the Democrats in the race for House control, not only because Biden’s ratings are so poor but also because there’s a long history of the president’s party getting pummeled in midterm elections. These factors help explain why FiveThirtyEight’s statistical forecast gives the Republicans an 88 percent chance of winning House control.But the Times/Siena poll is not alone in showing a competitive race at this stage. Since the court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, most polls have shown a tight race on the so-called “generic ballot,” which asks whether voters would prefer Democrats or Republicans to control Congress. The race has shifted about three points in the Democrats’ direction, compared with surveys by the same pollsters before the court’s ruling.At least for the moment, conservative policy victories — on abortion, climate policy, religious rights and gun laws — and a spate of mass shootings seem to have insulated Democrats. State polls have also looked good for Democrats. The party has led just about every poll of a hotly contested Senate race over the last few months, including polls of Republican-held states like Pennsylvania and Ohio.If all this good polling for the Democrats reminds you of a story you’ve heard before, there is a reason. The polls have overestimated Democratic support for much of the last decade, partly because polls have a harder time reaching working-class voters, who have been trending Republican. It’s hard not to wonder whether the good news for Democrats might simply be a harbinger of yet another high-profile misfire.It could also mean that the Democrats are at a high-water mark that will not last. Republicans will try to make the races a referendum on the president, and only 23 percent of undecided voters in the Times/Siena poll approve of Joe Biden’s performance. If inflation remains high this year, as many economists expect, undecided voters might have further reason to break against the Democrats.Americans are paying more for groceries.Alisha Jucevic for The New York TimesThe general election campaign might be especially helpful to the Republican Senate candidates coming out of bruising primary elections. It’s understandable why Republican voters who just voted against damaged or flawed candidates — like J.D. Vance in Ohio and Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania — may be reluctant to embrace these candidates immediately. Yet that could change when the race focuses on partisan issues and the stakes of congressional control, reminding these voters why they are Republicans.For the moment, the Democrats are benefiting from a favorable news environment. The recent Supreme Court rulings, the mass shootings and even the Jan. 6 hearings have focused national attention on a relatively favorable set of issues for Democrats. For them to stay competitive, they might need to keep those issues in the limelight until November.RelatedAnother poll detail: We asked respondents to tell us what they thought was the most important problem facing the country — in an open-ended question, without any suggested answers. About 35 percent named inflation or the economy. Less than 1 percent named the pandemic.Nate Cohn explains the poll on today’s episode of “The Daily.”THE LATEST NEWSJames Webb TelescopeThe edge of a star-forming region in the Carina Nebula, a vast cloud of dust and gases.NASA, ESA, CSA and STScIScientists revealed images of stars and galaxies that had been too far away or too dim to see.Here’s how the Webb telescope, the most powerful ever, looks into the universe’s origins.Experts spent weeks picking out which images to share. See their choices here.In Times Opinion, Shannon Stirone writes that the images remind us how small — and connected — we are.Jan 6.Donald Trump mobilized supporters, some prepared for violence, to travel to Washington to disrupt Congress’ election certification, new evidence at a Jan. 6 committee hearing showed.“We basically were just following what he said,” testified Stephen Ayres, an Ohio man who entered the Capitol that day.Trump planned for him and his supporters to go to the Capitol but he wanted it to seem spontaneous.During a profane, hourslong White House meeting weeks earlier, Trump advisers including Sidney Powell and Michael Flynn proposed that the military seize voting machines.Trump has tried to contact a committee witness, which suggests he was trying to influence testimony.BusinessHow many dollars one euro buys

      As of 8:42 a.m. Eastern time WednesdaySource: FactSetBy The New York TimesOne U.S. dollar is worth almost as much as a euro for the first time in nearly 20 years.Twitter sued Elon Musk to force him to go through with buying the company.Other Big StoriesSri Lanka’s president fled to the Maldives, days after protesters stormed his residence.On his trip to the Middle East, Biden will try to speed up oil flow to the U.S., among other things.A sixth Covid wave is hitting New York City. Many people are shrugging it off.Republicans are pressing Florida’s governor, Ron DeSantis, to curb abortions. He has stayed quiet about his plans.The South Carolina lawyer Alex Murdaugh will probably be charged with murdering his wife and son, one of his lawyers said.OpinionsLaughing can be a valuable coping mechanism, even for abortion, Alison Leiby writes.To navigate growing up poor, Joshua Hunt learned to lie.One redrawn Texas congressional district shows how partisan gerrymandering drives our politics toward the extremes, Jesse Wegman explains.MORNING READSResearch says most of us underestimate the power of the casual check-in.Moritz WeinertChecking in: Text your friends.Dial 988: What to know about a new mental health crisis hotline.Ask Well: Is chocolate good for you?A Times classic: Why one man kayaked alone across the Atlantic at 70.Lives Lived: In 1975, the singer and actor Adam Wade became the first Black host of a network television game show. He died at 87.SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETICHow M.L.B. could eliminate the infield shift: Jayson Stark reports that some change is now “inevitable” and it’s only a matter of when. Minor-league teams are already acting.Another N.B.A. star could be traded: Donovan Mitchell of the Utah Jazz is the name to watch. The New York Knicks would have interest. They aren’t alone.Jimmy Garoppolo’s next stop: The San Francisco 49ers quarterback could be the next one dealt after Baker Mayfield was traded last week.The Boston Red Sox get their ace back: Chris Sale returned last night, striking out five batters while not allowing a run in five innings. A healthy and effective Sale makes the Red Sox far more formidable.ARTS AND IDEAS Brian Cox of “Succession.”Macall Polay/HBO, via Associated PressThe Emmy nominations“Succession” dominated the Emmy nominations, which were announced yesterday, earning 25. In the best drama category, it will square off against the South Korean thriller “Squid Game,” which secured 14 nominations, the most ever for a foreign-language show. Other highlights:Repeat nominees: Last year’s best actor and actress in a comedy, Jason Sudeikis (for “Ted Lasso”) and Jean Smart (for “Hacks”), received nominations. Sudeikis will be up against Steve Martin, for his role in “Only Murders in the Building.” The last time Martin won an Emmy was 1969.Breakout star: Quinta Brunson, from the rookie hit “Abbott Elementary,” got her first nominations.Hulu: The streaming service could score its biggest Emmys haul with nominations for the limited series “Dopesick,” “The Dropout” and “Pam & Tommy.”Snubs: Neither Sterling K. Brown nor Mandy Moore were recognized for the final season of “This Is Us.”Full list: Here are all the nominees.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookRyan Liebe for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Barrett Washburne.Savory Thai noodles and seared brussels sprouts make for a delicious vegan dinner.What to Read“Carnality,” by Lina Wolff, starts as a conventional novel. That doesn’t last.What to WatchThe director of “Persuasion” argues that the movie is faithful to Jane Austen.Now Time to PlayThe pangram from yesterday’s Spelling Bee was alchemy. Here is today’s puzzle.Here’s today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Wild guesses (five letters).And here’s today’s Wordle. After, use our bot to get better.Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — DavidP.S. Two Times correspondents are swapping roles: Norimitsu Onishi will cover Canada, and Catherine Porter will replace him in Paris.Here’s today’s front page.“The Daily” is about The Times’s new political poll.Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick and Ashley Wu contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at themorning@nytimes.com.Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. More