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      ¿Qué está pasando en Birmania?

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      #masthead-section-label, #masthead-bar-one { display: none }Coup in MyanmarDaw Aung San Suu Kyi Is DetainedWhat We KnowPhotosWho Is Aung San Suu Kyi?AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyGolpe de Estado en Birmania: esto es lo que sabemosLos militares de Birmania derrocaron al frágil gobierno democrático del país. Detuvieron a los líderes civiles, bloquearon el acceso a internet y suspendieron los vuelos.Un soldado hace guardia en una carretera bloqueada hacia el parlamento de Birmania en Naypyidaw el lunes, después de que los militares detuvieran a la lideresa del país, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, en un golpe de Estado.Credit…Agence France-Presse — Getty Images1 de febrero de 2021 a las 11:21 ETRead in EnglishLos militares de Birmania derrocaron el lunes al frágil gobierno democrático del país en un golpe de Estado, detuvieron a los líderes civiles, bloquearon el acceso a internet y suspendieron los vuelos.El golpe devuelve al país a un gobierno militar completo tras un breve periodo de cuasidemocracia que comenzó en 2011, cuando los militares, que estaban en el poder desde 1962, implementaron elecciones parlamentarias y otras reformas.Personas con protectores faciales, mascarillas y guantes de goma para evitar la propagación del coronavirus esperaban para votar durante las elecciones de noviembre en un colegio electoral de Yangon.Credit…Ye Aung Thu/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images¿Qué llevó al golpe militar en Birmania?El parlamento tenía previsto celebrar esta semana su primera sesión desde las elecciones del 8 de noviembre, en las que la Liga Nacional para la Democracia (LND), el principal partido civil del país, obtuvo el 83 por ciento de los escaños disponibles.Los militares se negaron a aceptar los resultados de la votación, que se consideró un referéndum sobre la popularidad de Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. Ella, la jefa del LND, ha sido la lideresa civil de facto del país desde que asumió el cargo en 2015.Se esperaba que el nuevo parlamento refrendase los resultados electorales y aprobase el próximo gobierno.La posibilidad del golpe surgió en los últimos días. Los militares, que habían intentado argumentar ante la Corte Suprema del país que los resultados de las elecciones eran fraudulentos, amenazaron con “tomar medidas” y rodearon las cámaras del parlamento con soldados.La Radio y Televisión de Birmania retransmitiendo el anuncio hecho primero en la cadena de televisión Myawaddy, de propiedad militar.Credit…Radio y Televisión de Birmania vía Agence France-Presse — Getty Images¿Cómo se llevó a cabo el golpe?Los militares detuvieron el lunes a los líderes del partido gobernante, LND, y dirigentes civiles de Myanmar, incluidos Aung San Suu Kyi y el presidente U Win Myint, junto con los ministros del gabinete, los ministros jefes de varias regiones, políticos de la oposición, escritores y activistas.El golpe se anunció en el canal de televisión Myawaddy, de propiedad militar, cuando un presentador de noticias citó la Constitución de 2008, que permite a los militares declarar un estado de emergencia nacional. El estado de emergencia, dijo, se mantendría durante un año.Los militares tomaron rápidamente el control de las infraestructuras del país, suspendieron la mayoría de las emisiones de televisión y cancelaron todos los vuelos nacionales e internacionales, según los informes.Se suspendió el acceso al teléfono y a internet en las principales ciudades. El mercado de valores y los bancos comerciales estaban cerrados, y en algunos lugares se veían largas filas en los cajeros automáticos. En Rangún, la mayor ciudad del país y antigua capital, los residentes corrieron a los mercados para abastecerse de alimentos y otros suministros.Simpatizantes del partido Liga Nacional para la Democracia sostenían retratos de Aung San Suu Kyi en noviembre, cuando se celebraron las elecciones en Rangún.Credit…Sai Aung Main/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images¿Quién es Aung San Suu Kyi?Aung San Suu Kyi llegó al poder como consejera de Estado en 2016 tras la primera votación totalmente democrática del país en décadas.Su ascenso al liderazgo se consideró un momento crítico en la transición de Birmania a la democracia desde la dictadura militar. Aung San Suu Kyi, hija del héroe de la independencia del país, el general Aung San, pasó más de 15 años bajo arresto domiciliario.Su estancia en prisión la convirtió en un icono internacional, y fue galardonada con el Premio Nobel de la Paz en 1991.Desde su liberación, su reputación se ha visto empañada por su cooperación con los militares y su vociferante defensa de la mortífera campaña del país contra los rohinyás, un grupo étnico minoritario musulmán. En 2019, representó al país en un juicio en la Corte Internacional de Justicia, en el que defendió a Birmania de las acusaciones de limpieza étnica.Muchos creían que la cooperación de Aung San Suu Kyi con los militares era un movimiento pragmático que aceleraría la evolución del país hacia la plena democracia, pero su detención el lunes pareció demostrar la mentira en el compromiso de los militares con la democracia.El comandante en jefe Min Aung Hlaing el año pasadoCredit…Foto de consorcio de Ye Aung Thu¿Quién es el comandante en jefe Min Aung Hlaing?El ejército dijo que había entregado el poder al jefe del ejército, el comandante en jefe Min Aung Hlaing.Esta medida prolonga el poder del general Min Aung Hlaing, que se supone que dejará de ser jefe del ejército este verano. Su red de apoyos, centrada en lucrativos negocios familiares, podría haberse visto socavada por su jubilación, especialmente si no hubiera sido capaz de asegurar una salida limpia.Bajo el antiguo acuerdo de reparto de poder, el general Min Aung Hlaing presidía dos conglomerados empresariales y podía nombrar a tres miembros clave del gabinete que supervisan la policía y la guardia de fronteras.El ejército nunca estuvo bajo el control del gobierno civil. En los últimos años, el ejército, con el general Min Aung Hlaing al frente, ha supervisado campañas contra varios grupos étnicos minoritarios del país, como los rohinyá, los shan y los kokang.Russell Goldman es editor sénior de la sección internacional de The New York Times, se enfoca en la narración digital y las noticias de última hora, y vive en Hong Kong. Ha sido galardonado con el Premio a la Excelencia de la Sociedad de Editores de Asia. @goldmanrussellAdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      The Gerrymander Battles Loom, as G.O.P. Looks to Press Its Advantage

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyThe Gerrymander Battles Loom, as G.O.P. Looks to Press Its Advantage With new census results coming, Republicans control redistricting in key states, while Democrats prepare for legal challenges and look to redraw some maps of their own. Demonstrators at a rally protesting gerrymandering outside the Supreme Court building in Washington in 2019.Credit…Brendan Mcdermid/ReutersReid J. Epstein and Jan. 31, 2021Updated 6:37 p.m. ETWASHINGTON — With the election over and Democrats in control of the White House and both chambers of Congress, officials in both parties are bracing for a bruising new battle with a different balance of power: the redrawing of congressional maps, where Republicans hold the advantage in many state legislatures across the country, including in key battleground states.Republicans hold total control of redistricting in 18 states, including Florida, North Carolina and Texas, which are growing in population and expected to gain seats after the 2020 census is tabulated. Some election experts believe the G.O.P. could retake the House in 2022 based solely on gains from newly drawn districts.Already, Republicans are discussing redrawing two suburban Atlanta districts held by Democrats to make one of them more Republican; slicing Democratic sections out of a Houston district that Republicans lost in 2018; and carving up a northeastern Ohio district held by Democrats since 1985.“I would say that the national vote could be the same as this year two years from now, and redistricting by itself would easily be enough to alter who controls the chamber,” said Samuel S. Wang, the director of the Princeton Gerrymandering Project. He estimated that reapportionment alone could net the Republicans three seats, and gerrymandering in North Carolina, Georgia and Florida another five seats.With Democrats holding a 222-211 edge, Republicans would probably need to flip just six seats to win back the majority. But Dr. Wang and other good-government experts cautioned that other factors could determine the majority.Democrats will try to redraw districts in their favor in states like New York, Illinois and Maryland, they said. Some battleground states have adopted nonpartisan independent redistricting commissions. And President Biden did not create a wave of downballot victories for Democrats in the November elections, so there are fewer surprise winners who could easily lose their seats in 2022.While partisan warfare on Capitol Hill draws most of the national attention, the battles over redistricting are among the fiercest and most consequential in American government. Reapportionment and redistricting occurs every 10 years after the census, with states with the fastest-growing populations gaining seats in Congress at the expense of those with slower-growing or shrinking populations. The balance of power established by gerrymandering can give either party an edge that lasts through several election cycles; court challenges — even if successful — can take years to unwind those advantages.Outside of the State Capitol in Austin. Texas is expected to pick up House seats after the 2020 census results are tabulated.Credit…Tamir Kalifa for The New York TimesThis year, Texas (with potentially three new seats) and Florida (two) are expected to be the biggest winners, while Illinois, New York and, for the first time, California will each lose seats once the Census Bureau makes the reapportionment figures official. That could give Republicans an inherent advantage in the midterm elections in November 2022 — regardless of Mr. Biden’s popularity then.The bureau is not expected to deliver its data until late July, several months behind schedule, giving state lawmakers and redistricting commissions far less time than usual to draw the maps and deal with inevitable court challenges before the 2022 primaries begin.Democrats have been fighting on slanted terrain with redistricting ever since Republicans ran the table during the 2010 midterm elections and drew themselves favorable gerrymandered maps in 2011 and 2012. Though courts invalidated them in states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina, many still remain.Even though Democrats won control of the House in 2018, “the lingering effects of partisan gerrymandering, disproportionately by Republican controlled legislatures, make it harder for the Democrats to hold onto control or win control,” said Bernard Grofman, a professor of politics at the University of California, Irvine, “because they have to win probably closer to 52 percent of the national vote, or definitely more than 51 percent.”A host of states have adopted independent commissions to draw maps, arguing that people without a vested interest would be more likely to draw fairer maps. Some good-government groups and political scientists have lobbied for more changes, such as the use of algorithms to determine district boundaries, though there is broad debate about what would be effective in erasing the partisan tilt of the process.Adam Kincaid, director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, is preparing for legal challenges to redistricting.Credit…T.J. Kirkpatrick for The New York TimesRepublicans have, for the most part, adopted an elections-have-consequences attitude toward the mapping process. Adam Kincaid, the executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, the party’s main mapmaking organization, said his energy will be directed toward the inevitable legal battles that will follow this year’s partisan map-drawing.“If it wasn’t for lawsuits that were brought in Pennsylvania and North Carolina and Florida, Republicans would be in the majority today,” Mr. Kincaid said. The things to focus on, he said, were “defending maps drawn by Republican legislatures and also being more aggressive about going after Democrat gerrymanders in the blue states.”As they look to reframe the electoral maps, Republicans are debating how aggressive they should be. They can push the boundaries and try to win the most seats possible in 2022, which puts them at risk of losing more seats in future years in the growing suburbs that are attracting waves of Democrats. Or they can aim for a smaller number of Republican districts that can create a more durable majority, with the potential to last the decade.The central redistricting battlegrounds will be in Texas and Florida. Though both states are controlled by Republicans, the population growth has come largely from people of color and suburbanites — demographics that have trended toward Democrats during the Trump era.“Their ability to manipulate the map to the tune of 30 seats like they did last time is no longer on the table,” said Kelly Ward Burton, the president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee. “If the map plays out fairly, we will end up with more competitive seats than we have now.’’Kelly Ward Burton, the executive director of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, at her Santa Barbara home.Credit…Damon Casarez for The New York TimesStill, the combination of sophisticated mapmaking software and the abbreviated map-drawing period will give Republican lawmakers a far freer hand to put into effect favorable districts in the next year. And Republicans in states like Texas and Georgia will benefit from the Supreme Court decision in 2013 on the Voting Rights Act, which lifted the requirement that they get federal approval for redistricting.“I’m very concerned,” said Manny Diaz, the former Miami mayor who this month became the new chairman of the Florida Democratic Party. He is spending his first weeks as chairman devising a plan to challenge and offset Republican efforts.A decade ago, Mr. Diaz led the Fair Districts Now effort, which proposed a constitutional amendment offering guidelines for redistricting in Florida. Voters approved the measure in 2010, in time for the 2011 redistricting. But Republicans in the legislature ignored many of the principles, installing a highly gerrymandered map that helped Republicans win 17 of the 27 House seats in 2012 while President Barack Obama won re-election.Although there were near immediate legal challenges, it was not until 2015 that the State Supreme Court struck down the redrawn map, saying eight districts had been aggressively gerrymandered to favor Republicans.In Texas, a similar concern is rippling through the electorate. On Thursday, the State Senate’s redistricting committee held a virtual hearing, welcoming public commentary. For over two hours, pleas came in from across the state: please draw fair maps.“I believe that gerrymandering is an existential threat to the nation,” said Rick Kennedy, who lives in Austin and ran for Congress as a Democrat in 2018 and 2020.Though the data for reapportionment is still outstanding, Phil King, the Republican who leads the redistricting committee in the Texas State House, said almost all of the population growth had come from the triangle between Houston, Dallas and San Antonio. He noted that the committee was probably going to have to extend some rural districts into urban areas to keep the population at roughly 850,000 per district.“If you’re in West Texas where most of the counties are 10 to 20,000 people, you’ve got to reach into those urban areas to pick up some population,” Mr. King said.Yet those slivers into urban areas are what Democrats and good-government groups denounce as a contorted form of gerrymandering, weakening one area’s political voice by spreading it among other districts — and one that disproportionately affects people of color.“We’ll continue to see racial gerrymandering and partisan gerrymandering in terms of packing in the urban areas,” said Allison Riggs, the interim executive director of the Southern Coalition for Social Justice, referring to a gerrymandering tactic of creating a heavily partisan district by “packing” it with supporters. Ms. Riggs argued gerrymandering lawsuits against the 2010 Republican-drawn maps in Florida, North Carolina, Tennessee and Texas.Members listening as Speaker Nancy Pelosi, delivers an address in the House Chambers on the opening day of the 117th Congress in the Capitol Building.Credit…Anna Moneymaker for The New York TimesDemocrats will draw lines for far fewer congressional seats. The biggest Democratic state, California, outsources redistricting to a commission, as do Colorado, Virginia and Washington. And Mr. Kincaid said Republicans were preparing to challenge Democratic maps in states like Illinois, Maryland and New Mexico.In New York, where Democrats control redistricting for the first time since 1991, half of the Republican congressional delegation — either seven or eight members, depending on the outcome of one undecided race — could see their districts disappear if Democrats pursue the most aggressive gerrymandering available.“It’s reasonable to expect that when the voters of New York have given Democrats a supermajority control of both houses of the legislature, that might create an opportunity that didn’t exist in the past,” said Representative Sean Patrick Maloney of New York, the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.Some election experts argued that Republicans were so successful at drawing gerrymandered maps 10 years ago that it would be difficult for them to add to their advantage now.“The Democrats were able to win the House in 2018 despite the fact that there were some very gerrymandered states,” said Jonathan Cervas, a postdoctoral fellow at Carnegie Mellon University who studies gerrymandering.Democrats are also in stronger position nationally then they were in 2011. Key battleground states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have divided government with Democratic governors who could veto maps, setting up likely court battles. In Virginia, Democrats won control of the state government in 2019 and in 2020 voters approved a nonpartisan redistricting commission, eliminating the ability of either party to dominate the redrawing of districts.Other battleground states like Michigan and Arizona have established independent commissions, rather than partisan legislatures, that will draw the new maps.Ben Diamond, a Florida state representative who leads the Democratic redistricting efforts there, is calling on his colleagues in the legislature to commit “to transparency and public engagement” and “a meaningful scheduled way of doing this.”He added: “The sooner we can lay out how this work is going to be done, from a public engagement and a transparency perspective, the better,”AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      Violence May Delay U.S. Troop Withdrawal From Afghanistan

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyViolence May Delay U.S. Troop Withdrawal From AfghanistanThe new Biden administration is reviewing a deal between its predecessor and the Taliban for a May 1 deadline to pull all American troops out of the country.Afghan police at a checkpoint in Kabul earlier this month.Credit…Jim Huylebroek for The New York TimesAdam Nossiter and Jan. 29, 2021, 9:51 a.m. ETKABUL, Afghanistan — Both the Afghan government and its Taliban foes appear to be gearing up for a violent spring amid uncertainty over whether the Biden administration will meet a May 1 deadline for the withdrawal of all American troops from Afghanistan.On Thursday, the Pentagon raised questions about whether the pullout — agreed to in a February 2020 U.S.-Taliban peace deal — would go ahead on schedule as the incoming Biden administration reviews the agreement made by its predecessor. That statement followed bellicose remarks by Taliban and Afghan government officials, amplified by waves of violence across the country.“Without them meeting their commitments to renounce terrorism and to stop the violent attacks against the Afghan National Security Forces, it’s very hard to see a specific way forward for the negotiated settlement,” Pentagon spokesman John F. Kirby said at a news briefing. “But we’re still committed to that.”Zabihullah Mujahid, a Taliban spokesman, said Friday on social media that Mr. Kirby’s assertions were “unfounded.”The agreement between the Taliban and the U.S. government started the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces from Afghanistan in exchange for counterterrorism pledges from the Taliban and a promise to push the Afghan government to release 5,000 prisoners. The move amounted to the strongest attempt yet by the United States to extricate itself from its longest war and potentially paving the way for the Taliban’s future inclusion in the Afghan government.But the talks excluded the Afghan government and left it feeling sidelined and unheard, according to Afghan officials. Under former President Donald J. Trump, they said that U.S. diplomats frequently ignored concerns from Kabul in an attempt to expedite the negotiations.There are currently 2,500 U.S. troops in Afghanistan, down from 12,000 this time last year. And while the Afghan government is in favor of the withdrawal of Western forces, it wants a slower timetable than the one agreed to with the Taliban.Now, it faces the prospect that the uncertainty around meeting the troop withdrawal deadline could fuel even more violence.With the peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban in Doha, Qatar, at a standstill, Washington’s review will examine the Taliban’s commitments to severing ties with terrorist groups and reducing violence as agreed.U.S. officials have long insisted that the agreement was “conditions based,” and if the Taliban does not meet those terms it would extend the presence of U.S. forces in the country.The Taliban, gearing up for the spring fighting season, is already well positioned around several Afghan cities after making steady gains across the country in recent years.A member of the Taliban in March last year in an area controlled by the group in Laghman Province’s Alingar District.Credit…Jim Huylebroek for The New York TimesBut recent overtures from the Biden White House have sent a more reassuring message to Afghan President Ghani and other government officials, raising their hopes that they will no longer be sidelined and that the Americans will not leave any time soon.Afghan National Security Advisor Hamdullah Mohib unleashed a harsh diatribe against the Taliban last week while speaking to a group of Afghan commandos at an air base outside Kabul.“They have proved that they don’t have any desire for peace and that they are a terrorist group,” said Mr. Mohib, who has long history of spouting such sharp rhetoric. His latest remarks came on the heels of a phone call with his new U.S. counterpart, Jake Sullivan.Afghan officials have said privately that Mr. Sullivan’s hourlong call restored a certain level of trust between the Ghani administration and the White House and made them confident that their voices will be heard as the peace talks in Doha continue.On Thursday, the new secretary of state, Antony J. Blinken, talked with Mr. Ghani and expressed “the U.S. desire for all Afghan leaders to support this historic opportunity for peace while preserving the progress made over the last 20 years.”Assurances from the White House that the Ghani administration will have ample lines of communication to Mr. Biden’s cabinet seem to have also assuaged the Afghan government’s concerns over the U.S. decision to retain Zalmay Khalilzad, the diplomat who spearheaded the U.S.-Taliban negotiations that excluded the Afghan government.President Ashraf Ghani of Afghanistan during a visit to Herat this month.Credit…Hoshang Hashimi/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesSome Afghan officials distrust Mr. Khalilzad and were hostile to his dialogue with the Taliban under the Trump administration, particularly his pressure on them to release the roughly 5,000 Taliban prisoners with hopes that a reduction in violence would follow.It didn’t. But it did open the way for talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban that began in Doha in September.Asfandyar Mir, a postdoctoral fellow at Stanford University, said that an additional complication for the Biden administration is that the Afghan government is a “house divided” with rivalries throughout.Many Afghan officials say they believe that the Taliban have only a single interest: to seize power by force. And all sides in the conflict agree that missing the May troop withdrawal deadline would quickly change whatever equilibrium has been established on the country’s battlefields and could risk setting off a concerted Taliban effort to enter cities.In the meantime, regional powers, especially Iran and Pakistan, are biding their time and waiting to see what comes next under Mr. Biden.Iran, for instance, hosted Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Taliban’s deputy leader, in Tehran on Wednesday, which could be perceived as demonstrating the country’s willingness to play a more active role in the talks.Iran’s involvement in the Afghan war has shifted since 2001, underscoring the changing geopolitical currents over the war’s duration. On one hand, Tehran’s official line has denounced the return of the Taliban as a direct threat to Iran. But on the other, Iranian operatives have made quiet overtures to the insurgent group, offering weapons and other equipment, in Afghanistan’s southwest, Afghan officials say.The Taliban does not “trust the United States and we will fight any group that is a mercenary for the United States,” Mr. Baradar was quoted as saying in the Iranian news media in an apparent reference to the Afghan government.But just a month earlier, Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, all but offered up an Iran-trained Afghan Shiite militia to serve the Kabul government in “the fight against terrorism.” He was speaking in an interview with an Afghan news outlet.Officials here took that as a clear signal from its powerful neighbor that it intends to get further involved in the Afghan conflict.The Biden administration decided to retain Zalmay Khalilzad, the diplomat who spearheaded the U.S.-Taliban peace talks last year.Credit…Jim Huylebroek for The New York TimesEarlier this week, a Taliban delegation met with officials in Moscow, and on Friday, Abbas Stanekzai, a Taliban negotiator, told reporters that the Ghani’s administration is not “honest about peace.”Abdullah Abdullah, the chairman of the Afghan government council leading the peace negotiations, sounded a pessimistic note in an interview with The New York Times on Thursday.“The Taliban have taken a sort of maximalist position,” Mr. Abdullah said. “Before the negotiations, we were led to believe there would be a significant reduction in violence,” he added.“The recent attitude of the Taliban has not been encouraging,” Mr. Abdullah said, noting that the group had yet to make a promised break with Al Qaeda, the terror group responsible for the Sept. 11 attacks and the main reason U.S. forces invaded the country in 2001.A report from the U.S. Treasury Department earlier this month indicated that Al Qaeda had only gained strength in Afghanistan and continued its ties with the Taliban throughout 2020.Despite waves of targeted killings across the country — striking fear in some Afghanistan’s most populated cities, including Kabul, the Afghan Independent Human Rights commission found that the number of civilian deaths had decreased by more than 20 percent compared to 2019.The report also found that 8,500 civilians had been killed and wounded in Afghanistan in 2020.Najim Rahim and Fahim Abed contributed reporting.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      Why Barbara Kavovit, Entrepreneur and Occasional ‘Housewives’ Friend, Is Running for Mayor

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      #masthead-section-label, #masthead-bar-one { display: none }N.Y.C. Mayoral RaceA Look at the RaceAndrew Yang’s Candidacy5 TakeawaysWho’s Running?AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyWhy Barbara Kavovit, Entrepreneur and Occasional ‘Housewives’ Friend, Is Running for MayorMs. Kavovit, who struggled at times to win over her castmates on “The Real Housewives of New York City,” aims to have better luck with voters.Jan. 29, 2021, 5:00 a.m. ETBarbara Kavovit, photographed in February 2019.Credit…George Etheredge for The New York TimesOn Wednesday, another New Yorker hurled her hat into the mayor’s race ring, where it currently rests alongside the chapeaux of some 30 other individuals: Democratic candidate Barbara Kavovit. Like Maya Wiley, the former MSNBC analyst, and Andrew Yang, the former presidential candidate, Ms. Kavovit can claim some level of prior national TV exposure. Unlike Ms. Wiley and Mr. Yang, though, hers had no connection to politics, or even news: Ms. Kavovit has appeared (as herself) in several episodes of Bravo’s “The Real Housewives of New York City.” (Most notably, she was a regular on the show’s eleventh season.)Ms. Kavovit, 55, currently lives on the Upper East Side of Manhattan with her son, Zachary Kavovit-Murphy, 23. Offscreen, she’s best known as the founder and C.E.O. of Evergreen Construction, a construction firm in midtown, and for creating tool kits designed for women. In a phone interview from her office, Ms. Kavovit said she waited to announce her candidacy until she “felt comfortable with my messaging” and “with the policies that were important to me.”The interview has been edited for length and clarity.How long have you lived in New York?I was born and raised in the Bronx. And then I have lived in New York City since college. Close to 30 years, I guess.Where did you go to school?SUNY Oswego.What is your life like in New York City now?My life revolves around my son, making sure that he’s safe. Making sure my employees are safe, making sure that they get to work safe, making sure our job sites are safe. And basically being home a lot. I’ve gotten into cooking.If people know you outside of the construction scene, it’s likely that they recognize you from the eleventh season of “The Real Housewives of New York.”I like to think that they read my book too — that they’ve read my latest novel. But, yeah, I guess “The Housewives” is the first thing, right? They’ll scream at me on the street as I’m crossing Park Avenue.Can you explain why you were a “friend of” as opposed to a full “Housewife” on your season?[A woman who appears in “The Real Housewives” but is not granted full cast member status may be designated a “friend of” the cast.]Well, obviously, I came on as a “Housewife” of the show, and I went through the whole season as a “Housewife.” I was in all the confessionals, I went to the cast trip, and you only do that if you’re a “Housewife.” And then I think at the end, we realized that maybe I wasn’t the type of “Housewife” that maybe Bravo wanted. So I wasn’t willing to do some of the things that they wanted me to do. I’m a business owner. I take pride in going to work every day. It wasn’t my primary job, and for most people on that show, it is their primary job. So it felt unnatural for me. And I think both the producers and I came to an agreement that this was the best course.Ms. Kavovit with her book at the East Hampton Library’s author’s night in 2019.Credit…Deidre Schoo for The New York TimesDo you think any of your conflicts with cast members on the show stemmed from political differences?No. I mean, I don’t think anybody on the show probably has the same values as I do as far as policies go. I don’t know if anybody from the show are Democrats, that I was involved with on the season. I don’t think so. We never discussed politics.[Online data from the Federal Election Commission’s individual contributor database indicates that four Season 11 “Housewives” — Bethenny Frankel, Dorinda Medley, Luann de Lesseps and Tinsley Mortimer — have donated a collective $151,700 to Democratic campaigns since 2006, while two cast members — Sonja Morgan and Ramona Singer — have donated a collective $2000 to Republican campaigns since 2008.]You’re comfortable saying you’re definitely more liberal?I’m definitely more liberal. I’m more for the people. I’m really about making sure that the city, the underserved get served. We need a comprehensive plan to deal with social problems, homeless families, emotionally disturbed people, people who are on our streets. Really, what I see is not the New York I want to see. I’m not in my fancy townhouse. If I’m mayor, this is not the New York that will exist, I can tell you that.Are you in an apartment building?I’m in a non-fancy apartment building.What percentage of 2020 did you spend in the city versus out of the city?I would say 70/30.For the 30 percent, where were you?In the Hamptons.Andrew Yang, who’s running, received backlash after he mentioned that he spent quite a bit of the pandemic outside the city. What is your response to people who criticize mayoral candidates who did not remain in the city for all of 2020?It’s not that I did this as a new thing. I’ve had a house in the Hamptons for the past 20 years, and I’ve always spent 30 percent of my time there.I don’t know what the reason was for Andrew Yang not being here, but if it has to do — maybe it’s children, or — but I did see something, I think, he had mentioned his children. I don’t have anything to say about him not being in the city. But what I can say is it’s nice of him to come back to run for mayor after trying to become president unsuccessfully. I mean, did he just come back to the city? I mean, I’ve been in the city for 30 years. I’ve built my business in the city. My son has grown up in the city. He’s gone to schools in the city. I was in the public school system growing up in the Bronx. I mean, I’m a born and bred New Yorker.[Mr. Yang, who was born and raised in upstate New York, has lived in New York City for 24 years.]What motivated you to run, and run now?My question is, to you: Why shouldn’t I run? New York City’s a mess, and we need to save it. And the city needs someone who really understands it, and not what the politicians think the city is. I’m someone who grew up in the Bronx in a middle class family. I want the same opportunities that I had for other people. I want women to be able to move up the economic ladder. I want to be able to revitalize our neighborhoods. Most importantly, I want streets that are safe and clean. I want to be able to go on to the subway, and not worry if I’m going to get thrown into the tracks.I’ve watched the city decline, and Covid has really pushed me over the edge. And it’s not because I’m enraged that people are getting Covid, which I am, but it’s the fact that the government in New York City hasn’t taken care of our people and the businesses that are here. It’s chaos. It’s crisis. Our city’s streets are overrun with trash, and homeless people who deserve better than to be on our streets. We are in financial trouble and the city is not managed properly. And you throw all that together, and you have a government that’s built on excuses by politicians.There’s a lot of empty office space right now in New York City. What do you see as the future of those spaces?People realized that they can work from home and they didn’t have to spend 100 percent of their time at the office to be efficient. So I think that people will realize that there are other ways to do business. I think that the city will come back bigger and better and stronger than ever. It is going to take some time. But I still think that there’s going to be a shift in who takes what office space.And I think the crux of everything with going back to the office space is that people don’t want to be here because the fundamental part of New York City that makes the city run, and the foundation of the city, is the transportation system, which is 25 percent of what it could be right now. I have a whole crew of people that refuse to take the subways right now. You mean they’re refusing because of Covid-19?No, well, Covid has just put it over the edge. The transportation — subways are not safe. Every day, there’s somebody else that’s getting mugged, getting thrown onto the subway tracks. Or walking in the streets getting knocked on the head. I mean, people are legitimately afraid of walking the streets of New York City, I can’t tell you. All of my employees are. And I’m sitting in my office right now on 45th Street, and all of my employees are taking either Ubers or I’m paying for their garages. And these are people that live in the boroughs: Queens, Brooklyn, the Bronx, Staten Island. And it’s enraging. How does the government — the politicians that have been here for so long that have supposedly done such a good job — how are we in this type of trouble?Another candidate, Dianne Morales, advocates cutting the NYPD budget. What are your thoughts?I don’t think we should cut the budget of New York City’s police. I don’t believe that we should have less police on the streets. I think that we have to come to an equilibrium. And we have to stabilize New York City right now. So crime is up, murders are up, and we have a huge disparity between people wanting to have less police and more police. We can’t underprotect our population, we have to protect the people. So how do you do that, not demoralize the police, but make sure that people are safe and that the police do not harm anyone that they’re protecting?We have to put in some type of stringent program into the police that will allow us to feel comfortable with who is in the police department. It’s like a pilot; you can’t have any accidents. You can’t have one officer that is going to hurt the public. So you have to make sure. And how do you do that? You have to put the right policies in place for that.Who in your opinion, has been the best mayor of New York City?I would have to say Bloomberg.What did you like about the city under him?And I think Giuliani, Rudy Giuliani at some point in his career as well. I thought the city was the best version of itself. I thought that it was the cleanest. I thought it was the safest. I could remember riding the subways at 2:00 in the morning and not feeling vulnerable. My business was thriving under Bloomberg; I know that there was some other — people had some pushback back then, but my business was thriving. I think the whole foundation of New York City is about clean, safe streets, and education. I believe all people need the same education.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      The First Post-Reagan Presidency

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      Credit…Timo LenzenSkip to contentSkip to site indexOpinionThe First Post-Reagan PresidencySo far, Joe Biden has been surprisingly progressive.Credit…Timo LenzenSupported byContinue reading the main storyOpinion ColumnistJan. 28, 2021, 8:50 p.m. ETDuring Donald Trump’s presidency, I sometimes took comfort in the Yale political scientist Stephen Skowronek’s concept of “political time.”In Skowronek’s formulation, presidential history moves in 40- to 60-year cycles, or “regimes.” Each is inaugurated by transformative, “reconstructive” leaders who define the boundaries of political possibility for their successors.Franklin Delano Roosevelt was such a figure. For decades following his presidency, Republicans and Democrats alike accepted many of the basic assumptions of the New Deal. Ronald Reagan was another. After him, even Democrats like Bill Clinton and Barack Obama feared deficit spending, inflation and anything that smacked of “big government.”I found Skowronek’s schema reassuring because of where Trump seemed to fit into it. Skowronek thought Trump was a “late regime affiliate” — a category that includes Jimmy Carter and Herbert Hoover. Such figures, he’s written, are outsiders from the party of a dominant but decrepit regime.They use the “internal disarray and festering weakness of the establishment” to “seize the initiative.” Promising to save a faltering political order, they end up imploding and bringing the old regime down with them. No such leader, he wrote, has ever been re-elected.During Trump’s reign, Skowronek’s ideas gained some popular currency, offering a way to make sense of a presidency that seemed anomalous and bizarre. “We are still in the middle of Trump’s rendition of the type,” he wrote in an updated edition of his book “Presidential Leadership in Political Time,” “but we have seen this movie before, and it has always ended the same way.”Skowronek doesn’t present his theory as a skeleton key to history. It’s a way of understanding historical dynamics, not predicting the future. Still, if Trump represented the last gasps of Reaganism instead of the birth of something new, then after him, Skowronek suggests, a fresh regime could begin.When Joe Biden became the Democratic nominee, it seemed that the coming of a new era had been delayed. Reconstructive leaders, in Skowronek’s formulation, repudiate the doctrines of an establishment that no longer has answers for the existential challenges the country faces. Biden, Skowronek told me, is “a guy who’s made his way up through establishment Democratic politics.” Nothing about him seemed trailblazing.Yet as Biden’s administration begins, there are signs that a new politics is coalescing. When, in his inauguration speech, Biden touted “unity,” he framed it as a national rejection of the dark forces unleashed by his discredited predecessor, not stale Gang of Eight bipartisanship. He takes power at a time when what was once conventional wisdom about deficits, inflation and the proper size of government has fallen apart. That means Biden, who has been in national office since before Reagan’s presidency, has the potential to be our first truly post-Reagan president.“Biden has a huge opportunity to finally get our nation past the Reagan narrative that has still lingered,” said Representative Ro Khanna, who was a national co-chair of Bernie Sanders’s presidential campaign. “And the opportunity is to show that government, by getting the shots in every person’s arm of the vaccines, and building infrastructure, and helping working families, is going to be a force for good.” More

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      First Candidate Drops Out of Crowded N.Y.C. Mayor Race

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      #masthead-section-label, #masthead-bar-one { display: none }N.Y.C. Mayoral RaceA Look at the RaceAndrew Yang’s Candidacy5 TakeawaysWho’s Running?AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyFirst Candidate Drops Out of Crowded N.Y.C. Mayor RaceZach Iscol says he’ll now run for comptroller, but there are still roughly 30 candidates seeking to replace Mayor Bill de Blasio.Zach Iscol, a former Marine, considers Hillary Clinton to be a mentor.Credit…Jose A. Alvarado Jr. for The New York TimesJan. 27, 2021Updated 9:30 a.m. ETIn the New York City mayoral race, where there are at least 30 declared candidates, if one of the lesser-known entrants drops out, will it make a ripple?Zach Iscol hopes so.Mr. Iscol is ending his long-shot bid for mayor, amid hopes that he can make more of an impact as a new candidate in the city comptroller’s race.Mr. Iscol’s odds will certainly improve: Eight other comptroller candidates have filed paperwork with the city Campaign Finance Board, though one has already dropped out; of those remaining, only two — Brad Lander, a Brooklyn city councilman, and Brian A. Benjamin, a state senator — have met the minimum thresholds to receive matching public funds.Mr. Iscol had hoped that his moderate brand of Democratic politics and history of public service in the military and in the nonprofit world would attract a following. But he was unable to gain much traction and said he decided that he and New York might be better served if he shifted his focus to another race.“There are some amazing people who would be history-making in becoming mayor — people of color, women, women of color, people with various ideologies and backgrounds and experiences,” Mr. Iscol said in an interview. “It’s a strong field, and I’m confident in that field we will end up with a good mayor. I don’t see the same happening in the comptroller’s race.”The mayoral field remains unsettled. Candidates such as Eric Adams, the borough president of Brooklyn, and Scott M. Stringer, the comptroller, are leading the field in fund-raising. Raymond J. McGuire, a former Wall Street executive, recently raised $5 million in three months and appears to have support from the city’s business community.Andrew Yang, a former presidential candidate, has attracted a lot of attention with his entrance into the race and is expected to be a competitive fund-raiser. Maya Wiley, a former commentator on MSNBC, shored up her campaign by meeting the matching funds threshold. Dianne Morales, a former social services executive, has attracted support with her staunch support for defunding the police.Other candidates for mayor include Shaun Donovan, the former federal housing secretary; Carlos Menchaca, a councilman from Brooklyn; and Kathryn Garcia, the former sanitation commissioner.Mayor Bill de Blasio and Mr. Stringer cannot run for re-election because of term-limits laws.Mr. Iscol, a former marine who often speaks about his combat experience in Iraq, entered the race for mayor in October but said he wishes he had launched his campaign earlier. He still did well in fund-raising for a little-known candidate: His most recent filing showed that he had raised $746,000 and missed the $250,000 threshold to receive matching public funds by about $20,000.Mr. Iscol will be able to use the money he raised while running for mayor in the comptroller’s race, according to the campaign finance board. He has already probably met the lower threshold to qualify for matching funds for that race, pending an audit by that board, as has Assemblyman David Weprin from Queens, another candidate for comptroller.Because the race for mayor is far from decided, voters may not treat Mr. Iscol’s departure from that race as a negative in the comptroller’s contest, said Bruce Gyory, a Democratic strategist.“I don’t know if he’s the last, but he’s smart to be the first,” Mr. Gyory said. “The mayor’s race is so crowded with major figures that someone like Iscol would have been crowded out.”There are several established candidates in the race for comptroller, including Mr. Lander, Mr. Benjamin, Mr. Weprin and Kevin Parker, a state senator from Brooklyn.But it is unlikely that any can claim Hillary Clinton as a mentor, as Mr. Iscol can.Mr. Iscol is friends with Chelsea Clinton, and his mother, Jill Iscol, has been an adviser to Ms. Clinton.“I’ve known Zach Iscol for over two decades, and he comes at everything from the mind-set of ‘How do we bring resources and assets together to solve problems and address inequities,’” Ms. Clinton said in a statement. “He’s done it at the community level, the national level and in combat zones. He’s got a big heart and is indefatigable when he puts his mind to something.”Mr. Iscol isn’t the only new entrant to the comptroller’s race. Michelle Caruso-Cabrera, a former anchorwoman for CNBC who unsuccessfully challenged Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in a Democratic congressional primary last year, filed paperwork to enter the campaign on Monday, her campaign confirmed.Mr. Iscol said he wants to help the city recover economically from the pandemic, with a focus on the performance of city agencies. He cited “allegations of ethics and campaign finance issues” as helping to have motivated him to enter the race. That was a reference to Mr. Benjamin’s campaign, which relinquished nearly two dozen donations after the The City raised questions about their authenticity.Mr. Benjamin, who is Black, did not take kindly to the remark.“It’s unfortunate that a very privileged and failed mayoral candidate like Zach Iscol thinks they can step on Black leaders just to advance their own petty ambition,” Mr. Benjamin said in a statement.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      As Trump Seeks to Remain a Political Force, New Targets Emerge

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyAs Trump Seeks to Remain a Political Force, New Targets EmergeAs Donald Trump surveys the political landscape, there is a sudden Senate opening in Ohio, an ally’s bid for Arkansas governor, and some scores to settle elsewhere.Former President Donald J. Trump has an enduring base of Republican support across the country.Credit…Pete Marovich for The New York TimesMaggie Haberman and Jan. 25, 2021Updated 10:00 p.m. ETFormer President Donald J. Trump, determined to remain a force in G.O.P. politics, is gaining new opportunities with a crucial Senate seat unexpectedly coming open in Ohio, an ally announcing for governor of Arkansas and rising pressure on Republicans in Congress who did not stand with him during this month’s impeachment vote.The surprise announcement on Monday by Senator Rob Portman of Ohio that he would not seek a third term sparked a political land rush, with top strategists in the state receiving a flood of phone calls from potential candidates testing their viability. One consultant said he had received calls from five would-be candidates by midday.That opening, along with another statewide contest next year in which Gov. Mike DeWine is expected to face at least one Trump-aligned primary challenger, is likely to make Ohio a central battleground for control of the Republican Party, and an inviting one for Mr. Trump, who held on to Ohio in the election while losing three other Northern battleground states.Mr. Portman’s announcement came hours after Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Mr. Trump’s former White House press secretary, began her campaign for Arkansas governor. The Republican primary there already includes the state’s lieutenant governor and attorney general, but private polling indicates that Ms. Sanders is beginning well ahead, and Mr. Trump endorsed her candidacy on Monday night. Mr. Trump has only been out of the presidential office five days and has little in the way of political infrastructure. He has told aides he would like to take a break for several months. But the former president has remained the party’s strongest fund-raiser, with tens of millions in PAC money at his disposal, and he retains an enduring base of Republican support across the country. Perhaps most important, he harbors a deep-seated desire to punish those he believes have crossed him and reward those who remain loyal.So far he has focused primarily on Georgia, where he believes the Republican governor and secretary of state betrayed him by certifying his loss there. Both are up for re-election in 2022. And he took something of a test run over the weekend by getting involved in the leadership fight in Arizona’s Republican Party, after Kelli Ward, the firebrand chairwoman, asked for his help in gaining re-election, according to a person familiar with the discussions.Already there is a movement at the state and local levels to challenge incumbent members of Congress seen as breaking with the former president, starting with the 10 Republicans who voted to impeach him this month.The overwhelming consensus among Ohio Republicans is that a Trump-aligned candidate would be best positioned to win a competitive Senate primary, and no potential candidate has a better claim to Mr. Trump’s voters in the state than Representative Jim Jordan, who was Mr. Trump’s chief defender during his first impeachment trial and received the Presidential Medal of Freedom during the former president’s final days in office.“Jim is well positioned if in fact he’s ready to take that leap; I’m not sure there’s anybody that would beat him,” said Ken Blackwell, a former Ohio secretary of state and longtime Portman ally who last month served as an Electoral College voter for Mr. Trump. Referring to Mr. Trump’s legion of supporters, Mr. Blackwell added: “In Ohio, it’s going to be who has the track record to show that their agenda respects the newly realigned party base.”Representative Jim Jordan of Ohio was Mr. Trump’s chief defender during his first impeachment trial and could seek the Republican nomination for an open Senate seat in 2022.Credit…Gabriela Bhaskar for The New York TimesMr. Trump is now ensconced at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, where aides are building something that can serve as an office. He’s been golfing several times, and was spotted by people at his club in Florida playing with the brother of the former tennis star Anna Kournikova on Sunday.His advisers have had discussions about whether to get him back on some form of social media platform, although they insist that he does not need to be on Twitter or Facebook to raise money, and that his email solicitations continue to work well. On Monday he formally opened the Office of the Former President, to manage his “correspondence, public statements, appearances, and official activities.”As President Biden’s inauguration approached, Mr. Trump began telling some allies that he was considering forming a third party if Republicans moved to convict him in the Senate trial. But by Saturday, after his own advisers said it was a mistake, Mr. Trump started sending out word that he was moving on from his threat.“He understands that the best thing for his movement and conservatism is to move forward together, that third parties will lead to dominance by Democrats,” said Senator Lindsey Graham, the South Carolina Republican who is a close ally of Mr. Trump.Advisers to the president say he has just over $70 million in his PAC, Save America, with few restrictions on what he can do with it. For now, most of his staff is on a government payroll afforded to former presidents for a period of time after they leave office.Officials are working to mend Mr. Trump’s relationship with Representative Kevin McCarthy, Republican of California and the House minority leader, whom Mr. Trump called a vulgarity for his House floor speech denouncing the former president’s rally address before the riot at the Capitol on Jan. 6. A senior Republican said that aides to the two men were trying to arrange a meeting or a call in the coming days.Mr. Trump would like to seek retribution against House members who voted against him, and he has been particularly angry with Representatives Anthony Gonzalez of Ohio and Fred Upton of Michigan, advisers said. He will also at some point focus on the governor’s race in Arizona, where Doug Ducey cannot seek re-election; Gov. Greg Abbott’s re-election bid in Texas; and the Senate race in North Carolina, as places where he can show strength, the advisers said. (One adviser disputed that Mr. Trump would have an interest in the Texas race.)In Ohio, Mr. Gonzalez faces a potential primary challenge from Christina Hagan, a former state legislator whom he defeated in a 2018 primary. Ms. Hagan lost in the general election last year to Representative Tim Ryan, a Democrat, in a neighboring district. She said in an interview Monday that she would decide which, if any, race to enter in 2022 after Ohio redraws its congressional districts; the state is likely to lose one seat and Republicans control all levers of redistricting.“A lot of people elected what they thought was conservative leadership and now are witnessing somebody cutting against their values,” Ms. Hagan said, alluding to Mr. Gonzalez’s vote to impeach. Mr. Gonzalez’s office did not respond to emails seeking comment.Mr. Trump’s deepest hostility is reserved for Gov. Brian Kemp of Georgia, advisers said, and they expect he will expend the most energy trying to damage Mr. Kemp’s re-election bid. The governor’s original sin was in choosing Kelly Loeffler over Mr. Trump’s favored candidate, Doug Collins, to fill a vacant Senate seat in 2019, but it evolved into something more consuming as Mr. Trump repeated his debunked claims of widespread fraud in the state and held Mr. Kemp responsible for not doing enough to challenge the election results.Mr. Collins, a hard-line Trump backer, hasn’t decided whether to challenge Mr. Kemp or seek the Republican nomination against Senator Raphael Warnock, the Democrat who defeated Ms. Loeffler in a special election and will face voters again in 2022, or if he will choose not to run for anything, a Collins aide said Monday.Mr. Trump is likely to support a primary challenge to Gov. Brian Kemp, a Republican, in Georgia.Credit…Dustin Chambers for The New York TimesNext on Mr. Trump’s personal hit list is Representative Liz Cheney, the Republican from Wyoming, people close to him said. Ms. Cheney was the only member of the House G.O.P. leadership to vote to impeach. It’s unclear whether Mr. Trump will target her seat, or simply her leadership post in the House, but advisers said they anticipated that he would take opportunities to damage her.Sarah Longwell, the executive director of the Republican Accountability Project, an anti-Trump group, said she and her colleagues planned to raise and spend $50 million to defend the 10 pro-impeachment House Republicans in primary contests and attack those who voted to object to the Electoral College results after the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol. She said the group would aim to defeat Mr. Jordan in an Ohio Senate primary if he runs against an establishment-minded Republican.Mr. Jordan’s spokesman did not respond to messages on Monday.The 2022 map will be the first real test of Mr. Trump’s durability in the party. While Ms. Sanders is running for governor in Arkansas, rumors that his daughter Ivanka would run for Senate in Florida are unlikely to develop further. And though his daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, was said to be considering a Senate run in North Carolina, people close to the family say it is less clear what she will do now that Mr. Trump lost.Mr. Trump’s advisers are more focused on the looming impeachment trial. He is working closely with Mr. Graham, who has argued to his colleagues that Mr. Trump’s Senate trial sets a bad precedent.Mr. Graham helped him retain a South Carolina-based lawyer, Butch Bowers, who is also working to fill out a legal team with colleagues from the state, Mr. Graham and others said. Mr. Bowers is expected to work with a Trump adviser, Jason Miller, on some kind of response operation.Unlike his first impeachment trial, when the Republican National Committee engaged in a constant defense of the president, including paying for his lawyers, this time it is expected to focus only on rapid response, including calling the Senate trial unconstitutional and a procedural overreach, two people familiar with the committee’s plans said.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      Giuseppe Conte to Resign as Italian Prime Minister

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      #masthead-section-label, #masthead-bar-one { display: none }The Coronavirus OutbreakliveLatest UpdatesMaps and CasesVaccine InformationTimelineWuhan, One Year LaterAdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyItaly’s Prime Minister to Quit, Adding Political Chaos to PandemicPrime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s government is likely to collapse, leaving Italy in an uncertain political situation with Covid-19 infections still very high.Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte of Italy, center, addressing the Senate in Rome on Tuesday.Credit…Alessandro Di Meo/EPA, via ShutterstockJason Horowitz, Gaia Pianigiani and Jan. 25, 2021Updated 5:15 p.m. ETPrime Minister Giuseppe Conte of Italy will offer his resignation on Tuesday, his office said on Monday evening, likely leading to the collapse of Italy’s teetering government and plunging the country deeper into political chaos as it faces a still serious coronavirus epidemic and a halting vaccine rollout.Mr. Conte’s resignation will put Italy back in the familiar situation of government instability, but in extraordinary times, with tens of millions of Italians struggling to stay healthy and get by under pandemic restrictions and a deep, global recession. The coronavirus has killed more than 85,000 Italians, one of the world’s highest death tolls. The government, which was making slow but steady progress in vaccinating public health workers, has hit a speed bump and threatened to sue Pfizer for a shortfall in vaccine doses.What will happen after Mr. Conte offers his resignation to President Sergio Mattarella remains unclear. Mr. Conte could remain in charge, heading a new governing coalition with a different lineup of parties, but the possibilities also include a more thorough reorganization under a different prime minister, or even elections to choose a new Parliament.Mr. Conte, who is serving his second consecutive stint as Prime Minister — first as the head of an alliance of right-wing nationalists and populists, and then as the leader of a coalition of populists and the center-left establishment — desperately wants to stay in power.But last week, Matteo Renzi, a wily former prime minister and critic of Mr. Conte, unexpectedly pulled his small center-left party out of the government, depriving it of majority support in the Senate. Mr. Conte, who leads a coalition of the populist Five Star Movement and the center-left Democratic Party, has been unable to attract enough new support in Parliament to replace the votes Mr. Renzi took away.Mr. Renzi said he withdrew from the coalition to protest Mr. Conte’s management of the epidemic, his lack of vision in deciding where to allocate hundreds of billions of euros in recovery funds that Italy is set to receive from the European Union, and his undemocratic methods in icing out Parliament by relying on unelected task forces.A food distribution site in Milan earlier this month. The pandemic has devastated Italy’s economy.Credit…Alessandro Grassani for The New York TimesBut many here instead saw Mr. Renzi as performing a complicated political maneuver designed to take revenge on his enemies and gain more influence in the government, perhaps even in a third consecutive government led by Mr. Conte.Mr. Mattarella, the Italian president, is imbued with extraordinary powers during a government crisis and has several options for resolving the crisis.He could, in theory, ask the current coalition to continue, but it is seen as all but certain that he will accept that the government has collapsed. He could task Mr. Conte with forming a new government, which would essentially require the support, and appeasement, of Mr. Renzi’s party, with or without him. That would lead to what was in essence a glorified cabinet reshuffle.On Monday night, a third Conte government seemed, at least publicly, to be the governing coalition’s first choice.Nicola Zingaretti, the leader of the Democratic Party, which Mr. Renzi once led, said in a Twitter post Monday evening that he was “with Conte for a new government.” The Coronavirus Outbreak More