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      Rishi Sunak’s Dilemma: When to Hold an Election He Looks Poised to Lose

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      Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is 20 percentage points behind in opinion polls. But history suggests the timing of a vote might make a difference.No question in British politics will be more regularly asked, and reliably brushed aside, over the next few months than when Prime Minister Rishi Sunak plans to call the country’s next general election.He must do so by January 2025. The conventional wisdom is that with his Conservative Party trailing the opposition Labour Party by 20 percentage points in the polls, Mr. Sunak will wait as long as he can. Given the fact that Britons do not like electioneering around Christmas or in the dead of winter, that would suggest a vote next fall.But some of Mr. Sunak’s colleagues last week pushed for an earlier timetable. Having lost a critical legal ruling on his flagship immigration policy, the prime minister came under pressure from the right of his party to go to the polls in the spring if the House of Lords blocks the government’s efforts to revamp legislation to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda.Turning the election into a referendum on immigration might deflect attention from the economic woes plaguing Britain. But that assumes voters could be persuaded to swing to the Conservatives out of a fear of asylum seekers crossing the English Channel in small boats, rather than blaming the party for a stagnant economy, a cost-of-living crisis and hollowed out public services.Britain’s Supreme Court last week struck down the policy of deporting asylum seekers to Rwanda as unlawful. But Mr. Sunak has vowed to keep the matter alive by negotiating a new treaty with the East African country that would include a legally binding commitment not to remove migrants sent there by Britain — one of the court’s objections.Mr. Sunak also pledged emergency legislation that would declare Rwanda a safe country for asylum seekers. It remains unclear whether that would survive legal challenges and in the House of Lords, the unelected upper chamber of Parliament that has the right to review the legislation and could block it (though its appetite for a full-scale clash with the government was not clear.)“I know the British people will want this new law to pass so we can get flights off to Rwanda,” Mr. Sunak told reporters last week. “Whether it’s the House of Lords or the Labour Party standing in our way, I will take them on because I want to get this thing done and I want to stop the boats.”Asylum seekers disembark from a lifeboat in Dungeness, England, after being picked up at sea while crossing the English Channel.Henry Nicholls/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesPolitical analysts say immigration remains a resonant issue in England’s north and Midlands, where support for the Conservatives in 2019 gave the party a landslide general election victory. Those voters, many of whom traditionally supported the Labour Party, were drawn to the Tory slogan, “Get Brexit done.”“Immigration is now the top priority for 2019 Conservative Party voters, above even the cost-of-living crisis and the dire state of the country’s National Health Service,” said Matthew Goodwin, a professor of politics at the University of Kent, who has written about populism and identity politics.“This means, in short, that Rishi Sunak has no way of winning the next election unless he connects with these voters by reducing immigration and regaining control of the country’s borders,” he said. “Yet both of those things currently look unlikely.”Far from accelerating the date of an election, Professor Goodwin argued that the salience of immigration would pressure Mr. Sunak to delay a vote. It will take months to surmount the legal problems with the existing policy, the professor said, let alone begin one-way flights to Rwanda.Other experts are more skeptical that an immigration-dominated election would play to the advantage of the Tories. Most voters view the party negatively on immigration, said Sophie Stowers, a researcher at the U.K. in a Changing Europe, a think tank in London. The number of people crossing the channel has remained stubbornly high since Mr. Sunak became prime minister, while legal migration has soared.“To me, it seems counterintuitive to bring attention to an issue where you have a poor image with the public,” Ms. Stowers said.The question is whether the Conservatives would do even worse if the election were decided on the economy, which matters more than migration to voters at large, according to opinion polls. Mr. Sunak did achieve one of his key economic goals last week, halving the rate of inflation. But he has yet to achieve the other two: reviving growth and reducing public debt.Clothing for sale in London last month. Mr. Sunak did achieve one of his key economic goals last week, halving the rate of inflation.Hannah Mckay/ReutersIt’s not yet clear that the economic news will improve between the spring and fall, analysts said. While inflation has cooled, the lingering effect of higher interest rates — propelled upward by Liz Truss’s market-shaking tax policies last year — is still cascading through the economy in the form of higher home mortgage rates.Historically, many successful prime ministers, including Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair, called elections earlier than they needed, rather than risk becoming the victim of unforeseen events. They usually opted for the summer months, when the weather — and the public mood — is typically better, although Boris Johnson successfully broke that pattern with his victory in December 2019.Mr. Sunak’s room for maneuver is limited. One option would be holding the vote in May 2024 to coincide with local elections, or in June. Another possibility would be October or November, which would coincide with elections in the United States. But the possibility of a victory by Donald J. Trump could have an unpredictable effect, potentially pushing some British voters to a more centrist option. As a last resort, Mr. Sunak could hold off until Jan. 28, 2025.Some of Mr. Sunak’s predecessors paid a high price for miscalculating the timing of elections. Despite speculation that he would call an election in 1978, the Labour Party prime minister James Callaghan delayed voting until the following year. Labor unrest escalated into what became known as the “winter of discontent,” sweeping Mrs. Thatcher to victory in 1979.Margaret Thatcher, campaigning in 1979, won election as prime minister after the Labour Party incumbent, James Callaghan, decided not to call an election the previous year.Press Association, via Associated PressGordon Brown, another Labour prime minister, had been expected to capitalize on his early popularity by calling an election soon after taking over from Tony Blair in 2007. Instead, he delayed, ultimately losing power in 2010.Theresa May made the opposite decision, calling an early election in 2017 in which she lost her majority, though probably more because of her unpopular agenda and poor campaign skills than bad timing.“Once the election is underway, everything is on the table,” said Peter Kellner, a polling expert. “You lose control of the agenda.”Trying to build an election campaign around the issue of small boats bringing migrants is likely to fail, Mr. Kellner added, suggesting Mr. Sunak will only call an early vote if he calculates he has a realistic prospect of keeping his job.“If, at the point when you have to make a decision, you have no chance of winning, then you might as well wait,” he said, “because maybe there is a five percent chance of winning in six months, and a five percent chance is better than no chance.” More

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      Argentina se prepara para un presidente ‘anarcocapitalista’

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      Javier Milei ha dicho que la sociedad es mejor sin Estado. Ahora está a punto de dirigir el de Argentina.Javier Milei se dio a conocer al público argentino como un personaje combativo de la televisión, con un peinado rebelde y una proclividad a insultar a sus críticos. Por eso, cuando el año pasado anunció su candidatura a las elecciones presidenciales de Argentina, muchos lo consideraron un actor secundario.El domingo fue electo como el próximo presidente de Argentina, y ahora tiene la misión de sacar a una de las mayores economías de América Latina de una de sus peores crisis.Muchos argentinos se despertaron el lunes ansiosos, otros esperanzados, pero prácticamente todos tenían dudas sobre lo que les espera.Quizá la única certeza sobre el futuro político y económico del país era que, en tres semanas, un outsider político de extrema derecha con escasa experiencia en la función pública tomará las riendas de un gobierno que se ha comprometido a trastocar.En otras palabras, es el momento Donald Trump de Argentina.Milei, economista libertario y diputado novato, dejó claro en su discurso de victoria del domingo que actuaría con rapidez para modificar el gobierno y la economía. “La situación de la Argentina es crítica”, dijo. “Los cambios que necesita nuestro país son drásticos. No hay lugar para el gradualismo”.Los mercados aplaudieron su elección, y las acciones y bonos argentinos subieron en las bolsas estadounidenses (el mercado argentino estaba cerrado por un feriado). Incluso sin tener claro lo que puede lograr, los mercados parecen considerarlo una mejor apuesta económica que sus predecesores, en su mayoría de izquierda.Las políticas económicas fracasadas —incluidos el gasto excesivo, las medidas comerciales proteccionistas, la asfixiante deuda internacional y la impresión de más pesos para pagarla— han llevado al país de 46 millones de habitantes a una caída económica en picada.La inflación anual ha superado el 140 por ciento, la tercera tasa más alta del mundo, dejando a muchos argentinos dispuestos a gastar o convertir sus pesos a dólares estadounidenses o criptomonedas tan rápido como les sea posible, mientras que el creciente número de pobres del país hace fila en los bancos de alimentos y comedores de beneficencia.Personas recogiendo productos descartados frente al mercado central de Buenos Aires. La inflación anual ha superado el 140 por ciento; es la tercera tasa más alta del mundo.Tomas Cuesta/Getty ImagesPara solucionarlo, Milei ha propuesto convertir la 22ª economía del mundo en un laboratorio de ideas económicas radicales que en gran medida no se han probado en ningún otro lugar.Milei, de 53 años, ha dicho que quiere recortar el gasto y los impuestos, privatizar empresas estatales, eliminar 10 de los 18 ministerios federales, pasar las escuelas públicas a un sistema de vouchers, hacer que el sistema público de asistencia a la salud esté basado en seguros, cerrar el banco central y sustituir el peso argentino por el dólar estadounidense.Se identifica como “anarcocapitalista”, que, según ha dicho, es una corriente libertaria radicalmente librecambista que cree que “la sociedad funciona mucho mejor sin Estado que con Estado”.Ahora es el jefe del Estado.“Este es un escenario completamente nuevo en el que nunca hemos estado”, dijo María O’Donnell, periodista política y locutora de radio argentina. “Milei tiene estas ideas tan extravagantes que nunca hemos visto aplicadas en ningún lugar del mundo”.Ha habido poco consenso entre los economistas sobre el mejor camino a seguir para Argentina, pero pocos habían sugerido el enfoque de Milei antes de que llegara a la escena; y pocos saben qué esperar ahora que estará a cargo.El lunes por la mañana, Milei empezó a tambalear en algunas de sus promesas electorales. En una entrevista radiofónica, afirmó que la legislación argentina le impediría privatizar la salud y la educación. En otra, cuando se le preguntó por su plan para utilizar el dólar estadounidense, respondió que “la moneda que se elija es la moneda que elijan los argentinos”.¿Qué significa eso? “No estoy seguro de que lo sepa”, dijo Eduardo Levy Yeyati, economista y profesor argentino.Levy Yeyati lo interpretó como una señal de que Milei se propondría en primer lugar eliminar la mayoría de las restricciones al comercio de divisas, que el gobierno argentino ha impuesto como parte de su esfuerzo por apuntalar el valor del peso argentino. Otros comentarios de Milei el lunes parecieron apoyar esa idea.El Banco Central de Argentina en Buenos Aires. Milei ha dicho que le gustaría sustituir el peso argentino por el dólar estadounidense.Agustin Marcarian/Reuters“Argentina ha sido históricamente un laboratorio de ideas extrañas”, dijo Levy Yeyati, pero muchas de ellas nunca se llevan a la práctica debido a la realidad económica y política.Dijo que cree que ocurrirá lo mismo con Milei, al menos al principio. “Habrá un chequeo de realidad”, dijo. “Se seguirá hablando de la mayoría de estas propuestas, pero será difícil ejecutarlas en el primer año”.Se espera que Milei tenga que llegar a acuerdos políticos para llevar a cabo sus planes, ya que su partido, con dos años de existencia, apenas controla el 10 por ciento de los escaños del Senado y el 15 por ciento de los de la Cámara de Diputados.Lo más probable es que para gestionar muchos de esos acuerdos se valga de Mauricio Macri, expresidente de Argentina, un conservador que ha mantenido un amplio control sobre un gran partido político. Ambos se reunieron el domingo por la noche.Fernando Iglesias, diputado de ese bloque conservador, dijo que él y sus colegas estaban deseosos de ayudar a Milei a arreglar el país. “Es cierto que tiene el hándicap de la inexperiencia”, añadió, “pero tengo la esperanza de que pueda armar un equipo razonable de gobierno y hacer los cambios que necesita el país”.Aunque muchas de las personas clave de la campaña de Milei carecen también de experiencia de gobierno, ellas lo han presentado como una ventaja, no como un inconveniente, y los votantes han estado de acuerdo.Una persona que casi con toda seguridad tendrá influencia en el nuevo gobierno es la hermana de Milei, Karina Milei, que dirigió su campaña y a quien él ha descrito como su asesora más importante.En una entrevista televisiva de 2021, llegó a compararla con Moisés, la figura bíblica portadora del mensaje de Dios. “Kari es Moisés”, dijo con lágrimas en los ojos. “Yo soy el divulgador, nada más”.Karina Milei ha sido un enigma en Argentina, siempre presente al lado de Milei pero sin hablar casi nunca en público. No se sabe mucho de su pasado, más allá de informes no confirmados en los medios de comunicación argentinos de que estudió relaciones públicas en la universidad, dirigió un negocio de cupcakes y fue copropietaria de una tienda de neumáticos. La campaña de Milei dijo que ella ayudaría en la transición.La hermana de Javier Milei, Karina, saliendo de un hotel de Buenos Aires el lunes. Ella dirigió la campaña de su hermano y se espera que también lo haga con la transición.Luis Robayo/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesMilei anunció el lunes que su ministro de Justicia sería Mariano Cúneo Libarona, un abogado convertido en comentarista de televisión que saltó a la fama por defender a famosos, incluido el representante de la estrella del fútbol Diego Maradona en un caso de drogas en 1996.Su nueva ministra de Relaciones Exteriores, Diana Mondino, economista, declaró a la prensa que uno de los principales objetivos del gobierno en política exterior sería poner fin a la mayoría de las regulaciones sobre importaciones y exportaciones. También dijo que Argentina probablemente no entraría en el club BRICS de naciones emergentes, como se había anunciado en agosto.“No entendemos, con la información pública de la cual se dispone ahora, cuál sería la ventaja para Argentina”, dijo a los periodistas en el mitin de la victoria de Milei el domingo. “Si ustedes me pueden explicar a mí qué son las BRICS, aprovecho y aprendo”.La compañera de fórmula de Milei, Victoria Villarruel, ha pasado gran parte de su carrera dirigiendo una organización que reconoce a las víctimas de atentados perpetrados por guerrillas izquierdistas, que los militares argentinos utilizaron como justificación de su sangrienta dictadura de 1976 a 1983.Villarruel, que procede de una familia de militares argentinos, lleva mucho tiempo asegurando que se han exagerado las atrocidades de la dictadura, al afirmar que desaparecieron 8500 personas, a pesar de que los archivos desclasificados muestran que incluso los militares admitieron, a solo dos años de su gobierno, que la cifra era de 22.000.Villarruel y Milei fueron elegidos juntos para la Cámara de Diputados de Argentina en 2021, los dos primeros escaños que consiguió su partido, La Libertad Avanza.Milei ha pasado poco tiempo en el Congreso desde entonces, y propuso su primer proyecto de ley apenas a principios de este mes, al pedir al gobierno que haga más para traer a casa a los aproximadamente 25 argentinos retenidos como rehenes por Hamás.Simpatizantes de Milei celebrando en Buenos Aires el domingo por la noche. Los argentinos estaban aturdidos el lunes al pensar sobre lo que Milei podría traer, tanto lo positivo como lo negativo.Adriano Machado/ReutersEn todo el país, los argentinos estaban aturdidos el lunes al pensar sobre lo que Milei podría traer, tanto bueno como malo.Micaela Sánchez, de 31 años, actriz y profesora de teatro, dijo que ella y muchos amigos estaban preocupados por las promesas de Milei de modificar el gobierno, su historial de ataques a adversarios políticos y sus comentarios restando importancia a las atrocidades de la dictadura.“Es realmente un panorama desolador y aterrador para todas las personas que trabajamos en la cultura, que trabajamos con gente, para quienes educamos, para quienes están en salud”, comentó. “Lo único que puedo decir es que estoy muy asustada y muy triste”.Pero Yhoel Saldania, de 27 años, propietario de una tienda, dijo que mantener a Argentina como está habría sido mucho más arriesgado que apostar por Milei. “Los otros gobiernos prometen y prometen, y nada cambia”, dijo. “Queremos un cambio de verdad”.Jack Nicas es el jefe de la corresponsalía en Brasil, que abarca Brasil, Argentina, Chile, Paraguay y Uruguay. Anteriormente reportó de tecnología desde San Francisco y, antes de integrarse al Times en 2018, trabajó siete años en The Wall Street Journal. Más de Jack Nicas More

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      The Formidable Rosalynn Carter

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      I saw Rosalynn Carter angry only twice. Both occasions involved Ronald Reagan, who had crushed Jimmy Carter in the 1980 election, and both reflected her passion and decency.The first concerned a free public swimming pool in the Carters’ hometown, Plains, Ga., that they built in the 1950s. She recounted to me during an interview that when Mr. Reagan was president, local conservatives turned it into a whites-only private club. Mr. Reagan made people “comfortable with their prejudices,” she snapped.The second related to the landmark Mental Health Systems Act of 1980, a major investment in community mental health centers that Mrs. Carter spearheaded with the help of her husband’s other archrival, Senator Edward Kennedy. Sitting in her office at the Carter Center in 2015, she grew upset as she described how Mr. Reagan had defunded the ambitious program, leaving tens of thousands of people untreated. It took 30 years — until Obamacare — before ​​federal funding for community mental health treatment centers was fully resurrected with her help.Perhaps in death Mrs. Carter will finally be properly appreciated for her role as this country’s premier champion of mental health. It’s only one of the many unheralded accomplishments of a formidable and gracious woman who belongs in the first rank of influential first ladies.Over nearly 80 years, the Carters forged the longest, closest and arguably most productive high-level political partnership in American history — more seamless than those between Franklin and Eleanor Roosevelt or Bill and Hillary Clinton because it lacked the personal drama of those marriages.Although each agreed that the secret to a long, happy marriage was to spend some time apart, they did almost everything together — from learning to read the Bible in Spanish before bed to dodging gunfire in Africa after the presidency and fly-fishing in Siberia when he was 90 and she was 88.The Carters were married for 77 years, a distinction enjoyed by an estimated 1,000 or so American couples. But they knew each other for an astonishing 96 years, first meeting a few days after Rosalynn Smith was born in 1927 when Jimmy’s mother, the nurse who delivered Rosalynn, brought her toddler over to see the new baby.On their first date in 1945, when Jimmy was a midshipman at the U.S. Naval Academy, they went to a movie neither remembered. Nearly half a century later, Jimmy wrote a poem entitled “Rosalynn”:I’d pay to sit behind her, blind to whatwas on the screen, and watch the image flickerupon her hair.I’d glow when her diminished voice would clearmy muddled thoughts, like lightning flashing ina gloomy sky.Mr. Carter said he would not have won his long-shot 1976 bid for the presidency without her charm, hard work and smart advice. Spending an astonishing 75 days campaigning in Florida, she proved instrumental in helping him prevail in a historic primary there. His victory in Florida over George Wallace all but assured his nomination and marked the end of the racist wing of the Democratic Party.Inside the White House, Mrs. Carter was the first presidential spouse with her own professional policy staff. In 1977 she assumed an unprecedented role as her husband’s personal envoy and forcefully confronted authoritarian heads of state in Latin America on their human rights abuses. She took action to combat age discrimination by working closely with the congressman Claude Pepper to loosen rules on mandatory retirement, which affected the careers of millions. And touched by the plight of the Vietnamese “boat people” fleeing Communist Vietnam, she helped persuade her husband to more than double the number of refugees admitted from Southeast Asia.Mr. Carter described their relationship as “like one person acting in concert.” Asked about his decision-making on foreign policy, he said that he confirmed his judgment with “Rosalynn, Cy” (Cyrus Vance, his secretary of state), “Zbig” (Zbigniew Brzezinski, his national security adviser) “and Ham” (Hamilton Jordan, his chief of staff). As the Time correspondent Hugh Sidey wrote in 1979, “Note the order.” On the domestic side, Mrs. Carter pushed her husband hard to appoint more women to important positions, and he did, naming five times as many women to the federal bench as all of his predecessors combined.Known as the Steel Magnolia, a nickname she liked, Mrs. Carter set off controversy when she sat in (silently) on cabinet meetings. But she was enthusiastically welcomed there as a critical part of the policy process. While most presidential aides view first ladies warily, the senior staff in the Carter White House often wished the stubborn president listened even more to his impressive wife, especially on politics, where, as Mr. Carter acknowledged, her instincts were better than his.One achievement with contemporary resonance: Mrs. Carter, along with Betty Bumpers, the wife of Senator Dale Bumpers, traveled around the country and persuaded 33 state legislatures to change their laws to require proof of vaccination for children to enter school. This led to a joke in the late 1970s: Everywhere the first lady goes, kids cry — for fear of getting a shot.In 1980, Mrs. Carter thought her husband was “seemingly pompous” in explaining why he wouldn’t make politically expedient decisions. As she recounted in her memoirs, he would say something like, “I’ll never do anything to hurt my country.” And she’d reply, “The thing you can do to hurt your country most is not get re-elected.”When Mr. Carter lost, Mrs. Carter grew depressed and wanted her husband to run for president again against Mr. Reagan. When Mr. Carter rejected that idea out of hand, she helped him reinvent the post-presidency by establishing the Carter Center. They traveled the globe together, “waging peace,” as they put it, supervising elections, starting impressive global health initiatives and building houses for the poor. On the road, Mrs. Carter served as note-taker in important peace talks; at home, she established fellowships for journalists covering mental health issues and, as the founder of the Rosalynn Carter Institute for Caregivers, did as much as anyone to popularize a concept that barely had a name until the 1980s.The Carters’ eight-decade love affair was one for the ages. When I was at work on my biography, Mrs. Carter shared with me her husband’s letters from sea. One of them from 1949 read:When I have been away from you this long … I feel lonely and lost, and it seems that I am not really living but just waiting to live again when you are with me.Rosalynn Carter kept those letters in a drawer close by until the day she died.Jonathan Alter is a journalist and the author of “His Very Best: Jimmy Carter, a Life.”The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Javier Milei’s Presidential Win Is Argentina’s Donald Trump Moment

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      Javier Milei has said that society is better without government. Now he is about to run Argentina’s.Javier Milei was first introduced to the Argentine public as a combative television personality with an unruly hairdo and a tendency to insult his critics. So when he entered Argentina’s presidential race last year, he was viewed by many as a sideshow.On Sunday, he was elected Argentina’s next president, and is now tasked with guiding one of Latin America’s largest economies out of one of its worst economic crises.Many Argentines awoke on Monday anxious, others hopeful, but just about everyone was uncertain about what lay ahead.Perhaps the only certainty about the country’s political and economic future was that, in three weeks, a far-right political outsider with little governing experience was set to take the reins of a government that he has vowed to upend.In other words, it is Argentina’s Donald Trump moment.Mr. Milei, a libertarian economist and freshman congressman, made clear in his victory speech on Sunday that he would move fast to overhaul the government and economy. “Argentina’s situation is critical,” he said. “The changes that our country needs are drastic. There is no place for gradualism.”Markets cheered his election, with Argentine stocks and bonds rising on U.S. exchanges (the Argentine market was closed for a holiday). Even without clarity on what he can accomplish, markets appear to view him as a better economic bet than his mostly leftist predecessors.Failed economic policies — including overspending, protectionist trade measures, suffocating international debt and the printing of more pesos to pay for it — have sent the nation of 46 million people into an economic tailspin.Annual inflation has surpassed 140 percent, the world’s third highest rate, leaving many residents rushing to spend or convert their pesos to U.S. dollars or cryptocurrencies as quickly as they can, while the country’s growing number of poor increasingly line up at food banks and soup kitchens.People collecting discarded produce outside the central market in Buenos Aires. Annual inflation has surpassed 140 percent, the world’s third highest rate.Tomas Cuesta/Getty ImagesTo fix it, Mr. Milei has proposed turning the world’s 22nd largest economy into a laboratory for radical economic ideas that have largely been untested elsewhere. Mr. Milei, 53, has said he wants to slash spending and taxes, privatize state companies, eliminate 10 of the 18 federal ministries, move public schools to a voucher system, make the public health care system insurance-based, close the nation’s central bank and replace the Argentine peso with the U.S. dollar.He identifies as an “anarcho-capitalist,” which, he has said, is a radically free-market strain of libertarianism that believes “society functions much better without a state than with a state.”Now he is the head of the state.“This is a completely new scenario we’ve never been in,” said María O’Donnell, an Argentine political journalist and radio host. “Milei has these very extravagant ideas we’ve never seen implemented anywhere in the world.”There has been little consensus among economists over the best path ahead for Argentina, but few had suggested Mr. Milei’s approach before he arrived on the scene — and few know what to expect now that he is in charge.On Monday morning, Mr. Milei already began to wobble on some of his campaign pledges. In one radio interview, he said Argentine law would restrict him from privatizing health care and education. In another, when asked about his plan to use the U.S. dollar, he responded that “the currency we adopt will be the currency that Argentines choose.”What does that mean? “I’m not sure he knows,” said Eduardo Levy Yeyati, an Argentine economist and professor.Mr. Levy Yeyati interpreted it as a sign that Mr. Milei would first aim to eliminate most restrictions on trading foreign currencies, which the Argentine government has restricted as part of its effort to prop up the value of the Argentine peso. Mr. Milei’s other comments on Monday appeared to support that idea.The Central Bank of Argentina in Buenos Aires. Mr. Milei has said he would like to replace the Argentine peso with the U.S. dollar.Agustin Marcarian/Reuters“Argentina has historically been a laboratory for weird ideas,” Mr. Levy Yeyati said, but many are never implemented because of economic and political realities.He said that he believes the same will happen with Mr. Milei, at least at first. “There will be a reality check,” he said. “Most of these proposals will still be talked about, but it will be hard to implement them in the first year.”Mr. Milei is expected to have to make political deals to carry out his plans, as his two-year-old political party controls just 10 percent of the seats in Argentina’s Senate and 15 percent in its lower house of Congress.He will most likely broker many of those deals with Mauricio Macri, Argentina’s former president, a conservative who has retained broad control over a large political party. The two met on Sunday night.Fernando Iglesias, a congressman from that conservative bloc, said that he and his colleagues were eager to help Mr. Milei fix the nation. “It’s true that he has the handicap of inexperience,” he added, “but I’m hopeful that he can put together a reasonable governing team to make the changes the country needs.”While many key people in Mr. Milei’s campaign also lack much governing experience, they have pitched that as an asset, not a liability, and many voters agreed.One person who will almost certainly have influence in the new government is Mr. Milei’s sister, Karina Milei, who ran his campaign and whom he has described as his most important adviser.In a 2021 television interview, he even compared her to Moses, the biblical figure bearing the message of God. “Kari is Moses,” he said with tears in his eyes. “I’m the one spreading the word.”Ms. Milei has been an enigma in Argentina, always present at Mr. Milei’s side but almost never speaking publicly. Not much is known about her past, beyond unconfirmed reports in the Argentine news media that she studied public relations in college, ran a cupcake business and co-owned a tire shop. Mr. Milei’s campaign said she would help run the transition.Mr. Milei’s sister, Karina Milei, leaving a hotel in Buenos Aires on Monday. Ms. Milei ran her brother’s campaign and is expected to run the transition.Luis Robayo/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesMr. Milei announced Monday that his justice minister would be Mariano Cúneo Libarona, a lawyer turned television pundit who rose to prominence defending celebrities, including in a 1996 drug case when he represented the soccer star Diego Maradona’s manager.His new foreign minister, Diana Mondino, an economist, told reporters that one of the government’s main foreign policy goals was to end most regulations on imports and exports. She also said that Argentina would likely not enter the BRICS club of emerging nations, as had been announced in August.“We don’t understand, with the public information available now, what the advantage would be for Argentina,” she told reporters at Mr. Milei’s victory rally on Sunday. “If you all can explain to me what the BRICS are, I’ll take advantage and learn.”Mr. Milei’s running mate, Victoria Villarruel, has spent much of her career running an organization that recognizes victims of attacks carried out by leftist guerrillas, which Argentina’s military used as justification for its bloody dictatorship from 1976 to 1983.Ms. Villarruel, who comes from an Argentine military family, has long claimed that the atrocities of the dictatorship have been overstated, claiming that 8,500 people disappeared despite declassified records showing that even the military admitted, just two years into its rule, that the number was 22,000.Ms. Villarruel and Mr. Milei were elected to Argentina’s lower house of Congress together in 2021, the first two seats for their Liberty Advances party.Mr. Milei has spent little time in Congress since, proposing his first bill just earlier this month, calling on the government to do more to bring home the roughly 25 Argentines held hostage by Hamas.Supporters of Mr. Milei celebrating in Buenos Aires on Sunday night. Argentines were reeling on Monday with what Mr. Milei could bring, both good and bad.Adriano Machado/ReutersAcross the country, Argentines were reeling on Monday with what Mr. Milei could bring, both good and bad.Micaela Sánchez, 31, an actress and drama teacher, said she and many friends were worried by Mr. Milei’s pledges to overhaul the government, his history of attacking political adversaries and his comments downplaying the atrocities of the dictatorship.“It’s really a bleak and frightening panorama for all of us who work in culture, who work with people, for those who educate, and for those in health care,” she said. “The only thing I can say is that I’m very scared and very sad.”But Yhoel Saldania, 27, a shop owner, said keeping Argentina as it is would have been far riskier than taking a bet on Mr. Milei. “The other governments promise and promise, and nothing ever changes,” he said. “We want a change that’s real.” More

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      Elecciones en Argentina: esto es lo que hay que saber

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      El domingo, los votantes decidirán quién será su próximo presidente: Javier Milei, un libertario de ultraderecha, o Sergio Massa, el ministro de Economía de centroizquierda.Durante meses, Argentina ha estado ocupada con una sola pregunta.¿Su próximo presidente será Javier Milei, un libertario de ultraderecha cuyo estilo audaz y propensión a las teorías conspiratorias le ha valido comparaciones con el expresidente estadounidense Donald Trump?El domingo, los votantes van a decidir.Milei, economista y excomentarista de televisión, se enfrenta a Sergio Massa, actual ministro de Economía de Argentina, de tendencia centroizquierda, en una segunda vuelta. Massa lideró en la primera vuelta del mes pasado, con 37 por ciento de los votos frente al 30 por ciento de Milei. Pero las encuestas sugieren que la contienda del domingo estará muy cerrada.Como trasfondo de las elecciones está la peor crisis económica del país en décadas, con una inflación anual que supera el 140 por ciento, solo detrás de Líbano y Venezuela a nivel mundial. Dos de cada cinco argentinos ahora viven en la pobreza. Ambos candidatos han ofrecido visiones dramáticamente distintas de cómo salir del marasmo económico en un país de 46 millones de habitantes, algo que ningún líder argentino ha conseguido en décadas.Pero el debate económico ha sido opacado por el ascenso de Milei, su personalidad excéntrica y sus planteamientos radicales para rehacer el país.Ahora que Milei está cerca de la presidencia, la votación del domingo es una prueba de la fuerza del movimiento mundial de ultraderecha. Milei ha recibido con agrado las comparaciones con Trump así como con el expresidente de derecha de Brasil, Jair Bolsonaro. Y, como ellos, ha advertido que si pierde sería porque la elección estuvo amañada.Esto es lo que hay que saber sobre los comicios en Argentina.¿Quién es Javier Milei?Antes de que Milei, de 53 años, fuera candidato presidencial, era vocalista de una banda de covers de los Rolling Stones, un economista de opiniones marcadamente libertarias y un comentarista de televisión conocido por sus exabruptos. En 2021 fue electo al Congreso de Argentina.Milei ha concentrado su campaña en una propuesta económica que implicaría recortes tanto al gasto público como a los impuestos, el cierre del Banco Central de Argentina y la dolarización del país. Los analistas políticos y los economistas dudan de que cuente con las condiciones económicas o la coalición política necesaria para llevar a cabo un cambio tan extremo.Milei, antiguo líder de una banda de covers de los Rolling Stones, fue elegido diputado en el Congreso argentino en 2021.Sarah Pabst para The New York TimesDurante la campaña, Milei presentó a su oponente, Massa, como líder de una turbia “casta” de élites políticas que le roban a los argentinos comunes y corrientes y a sí mismo como un advenedizo temerario que se los va a enfrentar. En sus eventos de campaña se le presenta como un león rugiente mientras sus seguidores corean “la casta tiene miedo”.Sin embargo, su personalidad excéntrica y sus políticas belicosas a menudo han acaparado la atención. Hemos visto sus ataques contra el papa, los choques con los seguidores de Taylor Swift, las declaraciones de que es un gurú de sexo tántrico y de que el cambio climático es una artimaña socialista, su disfraz de superhéroe libertario y la relación cercana con sus perros mastines, que son clones, bautizados en honor de economistas conservadores.¿Quién es Sergio Massa, su oponente?Massa, de 51 años, ha pasado toda su carrera haciendo política y ha sido intendente, diputado y jefe de gabinete. Por su oscilación de derecha a izquierda se ha ganado fama de pragmático.Ese es el mismo enfoque que ha tomado durante la campaña presidencial, promocionando su capacidad de gobernar, colaborar con los empresarios y lograr una coalición política para arreglar la economía.Pero para muchos argentinos, carece de credibilidad en asuntos económicos. Durante los últimos 16 meses ha supervisado la economía de Argentina, mientras se hundía. La inflación ha subido y el valor del peso argentino se ha desplomado. En julio de 2022, cuando Massa fue nombrado ministro de Economía, 1 dólar servía para comprar 300 pesos en el mercado no oficial. Hoy, 1 dólar compra 950 pesos.Sergio Massa ha dedicado toda su carrera a la política, pero sigue intentando presentarse como candidato del cambio.Sarah Pabst para The New York TimesLas dificultades de Argentina no empezaron con Massa. Durante décadas, unas políticas económicas deficientes más un alto gasto gubernamental y un enfoque proteccionista al comercio, han dejado al país con una de las economías más constantemente inestables, a pesar de su abundancia de recursos naturales.Massa culpó a una sequía histórica y a 44.000 millones de dólares de deuda externa por dañar a muchos argentinos durante su tiempo como ministro de Economía. “Perdimos la mitad de nuestras exportaciones agrícolas” durante la sequía dijo en una entrevista, “entonces la mayor apuesta fue a sostener el nivel de actividad y de empleo”.La economía de Argentina se contrajo en un 4,9 por ciento en el segundo trimestre de este año, que es el dato más reciente disponible; fue la primera disminución luego de nueve trimestres de crecimiento en los que el país se recuperaba de la pandemia. El desempleo en su mayor parte también ha retrocedido en trimestres recientes, a 6,2 por ciento para fines de junio.¿Qué proponen?La plataforma de Milei se centra en sus promesas de cerrar el Banco Central y dolarizar la economía. Durante la campaña, Milei aplastaba versiones en miniatura del Banco Central y alzaba billetes gigantes de 100 dólares con su imagen.Mile también se valía de otro objeto de utilería: una motosierra que agitaba en sus mítines. La sierra representaba los recortes profundos que propone, entre ellos la disminución de impuestos; la eliminación de regulaciones; la privatización de industrias estatales; la reducción de los ministerios federales de 18 a ocho; la conversión de la educación pública a un sistema de vouchers y el sistema público de salud a uno sustentado en aseguradoras; y el recorte del gasto federal hasta en 15 por ciento del producto interno bruto de Argentina. Después de algunas repercusiones negativas ha matizado algunas propuestas.También ha dicho que le gustaría prohibir el aborto, liberalizar las regulaciones de tenencia de armas y en gran medida cortar las relaciones con cualquier país que no sea Estados Unidos o Israel.En una entrevista, Massa dijo que las propuestas de Milei eran algo “suicida” para el país.Sus propuestas de cambio son mucho más modestas. Massa ha dicho que busca incrementar la producción de petróleo, gas y litio; simplificar el sistema impositivo y reducir en general el gasto al tiempo que aumenta la inversión en educación y formación laboral. “Austeridad”, dijo.Sin embargo, sus llamados a la austeridad han sido perjudicados por sus medidas recientes de recortar impuestos, otorgar bonos a los trabajadores y liberar más fondos para los pobres. Los críticos han señalado que estas políticas son clientelismo irresponsable en tiempos de crisis económica.¿Qué ha dicho Milei sobre el fraude electoral?Durante meses, Milei ha asegurado, sin aportar pruebas, que en las elecciones primarias del 5 de agosto le robaron más de un millón de votos. También ha dicho que la primera vuelta de las elecciones generales del mes pasado estuvieron amañadas en su contra.Ha alegado que hay estafadores que se roban y malogran sus boletas en las mesas de votación, lo que evita que sus seguidores voten por él. (En Argentina, los ciudadanos meten una boleta de su candidato predilecto en un sobre y depositan el sobre sellado en una caja. Las campañas distribuyen los votos con el nombre de su candidato en los lugares de votación).Las autoridades electorales rechazan las denuncias de Milei y su campaña ha aportado pocas pruebas. El director jurídico de su campaña dijo en una entrevista que solo tenía conocimiento directo de 10 a 15 denuncias escritas de votantes.Votantes buscan sus nombres en las listas electorales en las elecciones generales en Buenos Aires, Argentina.Rodrigo Abd/Associated PressEsta semana, la campaña de Milei escaló la lucha y presentó un documento ante un juez federal que aseguraba había un “fraude colosal” y que las autoridades argentinas cambiaban votos de Milei para Massa. La campaña citó fuentes anónimas.Milei ha cuestionado abiertamente los resultados de las elecciones de 2020 en Estados Unidos y de Brasil en 2022, que estuvieron acosadas por afirmaciones sin sustento que ocasionaron ataques violentos a los capitolios de dichos países.Ahora los argentinos se preparan para lo que pueda suceder en caso de que Milei pierda. Sus seguidores han llamado a protestar afuera de la sede de la autoridad electoral tras el cierre de las urnas del domingo.El viernes, Milei dijo que el partido titular de Massa, “está dando muestras de desesperación muy groseras” y que probablemente intentaría aferrarse al poder en caso de que Milei triunfe. En dicho caso, añadió, su gobierno “aplicará la justicia con toda la fuerza que corresponda”.Lucía Cholakian Herrera More

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      Javier Milei vs. Sergio Massa in Argentina’s Election: What to Know

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      On Sunday, voters will choose whether to elect a far-right libertarian, Javier Milei, or the center-left economy minister, Sergio Massa.For months, Argentina has been consumed by a single question.Will Javier Milei — a far-right libertarian whose brash style and embrace of conspiracy theories have drawn comparisons to former President Donald J. Trump — be its next president?On Sunday, voters will finally get to decide.Mr. Milei, an economist and former television pundit, is facing off against Sergio Massa, Argentina’s center-left economy minister, in a runoff election. Mr. Massa led the election’s first round last month, with 37 percent to Mr. Milei’s 30 percent. But polls suggest Sunday’s race is a dead heat.The backdrop to the contest has been Argentina’s worst economic crisis in decades, with annual inflation surpassing 140 percent, behind only Lebanon and Venezuela globally. Two in five Argentines now live in poverty. The men have offered starkly different visions on how to reverse the economic morass in the nation of 46 million — a feat that no Argentine leader has been able to accomplish for decades.But the economic debate has been overshadowed by the rise of Mr. Milei, his eccentric personality and his radical ideas to remake the country.With Mr. Milei now on the verge of the presidency, Sunday’s vote is a test of strength for the global far-right movement. Mr. Milei has welcomed the comparisons to Mr. Trump, as well as to Brazil’s former right-wing president, Jair Bolsonaro. And, like them, he has warned that if he loses, it may be because the election was stolen.Here’s what you need to know about Argentina’s election.Who is Javier Milei?Before Mr. Milei, 53, was a presidential candidate, he was a frontman of a Rolling Stones cover band, an economist with starkly libertarian views and a television pundit known for his fiery outbursts. In 2021, he was elected to Argentina’s Congress.Mr. Milei has centered his campaign on an economic overhaul that would involve slashing both spending and taxes, closing Argentina’s central bank and replacing its currency with the U.S. dollar. Economists and political analysts are skeptical he would have the economic conditions or political coalition necessary to pull off such extreme change.Mr. Milei, a former frontman for a Rolling Stones cover band, was elected to Argentina’s Congress in 2021.Sarah Pabst for The New York TimesOn the campaign trail, Mr. Milei has depicted his opponent, Mr. Massa, as the leader of a shadowy “caste” of political elites who are stealing from average Argentines — and himself as the fearless outsider who will take them on. His campaign events depict him as a roaring lion as his supporters chant, “The caste is afraid.”Yet his eccentric personality and pugnacious politics have often attracted the most attention. There have been his harsh attacks against the pope, his clashes with Taylor Swift fans, his claims of being a tantric-sex guru, his assertion that climate change is a socialist plot, his dressing up as a libertarian superhero and his close relationship with his Mastiff dogs that are named for conservative economists — and are also all clones.Who is his opponent, Sergio Massa?Mr. Massa, 51, has spent his entire career in politics, including as a mayor, congressman and a cabinet chief to a president, swinging from the right to the left and earning a reputation as a pragmatist.That is the same approach he has taken during the presidential campaign, touting his ability to run the government, work with industry and build a political coalition to fix the economy.But to many Argentines, he has little credibility on economic matters. He has overseen Argentina’s economy for the past 16 months, just as it has cratered. Inflation has soared, and the value of the Argentine peso has plummeted. In July 2022, when Mr. Massa was appointed economy minister, $1 bought about 300 pesos on the main unofficial market. Now $1 buys 950 pesos.Sergio Massa has spent his entire career in politics but is still pitching himself as a candidate of change.Sarah Pabst for The New York TimesArgentina’s woes hardly began with Mr. Massa. For decades, failed economic policies, including high government spending and a protectionist approach to trade, have left Argentina with one of the world’s most perpetually unstable economies, despite its abundant natural resources.Mr. Massa blamed a record drought and $44 billion in international debt for hurting so many Argentines during his run as economy minister. “We lost half of our agricultural exports” as a result of the drought, he said in an interview, “so the main challenge was to sustain the level of activity and employment.”Argentina’s economy shrank by 4.9 percent in the second quarter of this year, the latest data available, the first decline after nine consecutive quarters of growth, in which the country rebounded from the pandemic. Unemployment has also mostly fallen in recent quarters, down to 6.2 percent by the end of June.What are their plans?Mr. Milei’s platform is centered on his pledges to close the central bank and dollarize the economy. During the campaign, Mr. Milei would smash miniature versions of the central bank and hold aloft giant $100 bills with his face on it.Mr. Milei also had another campaign prop: a chain saw that he would wave around at rallies. The saw represented the deep cuts he is proposing to government, including lowering taxes; slashing regulations; privatizing state industries; reducing the number of federal ministries to eight from 18; shifting public education to a voucher-based system and public health care to insurance-based; and cutting federal spending by up to 15 percent of Argentina’s gross domestic product. He has recently softened some proposals after blowback.He also has said he would like to ban abortion, loosen gun regulations and largely cut relations with any country beside the United States and Israel.In an interview, Mr. Massa called Mr. Milei’s proposals “suicidal” for the country.His plans for change are far more modest. Mr. Massa said he wants to increase production of oil, gas and lithium; simplify the tax system; and reduce overall spending while increasing spending on education and job training. “Austerity,” he said.His calls for austerity, however, have been undercut by his moves in recent months to cut taxes, give bonuses to workers and release more money to the poor. Critics have called the policies irresponsible patronage during an economic crisis.What has Mr. Milei said about election fraud?For months, Mr. Milei has claimed, without evidence, that he was robbed of more than a million votes in a primary election in August, or 5 percent of the total. He has also said that the first round of the general election last month was rigged against him.He has argued that fraudsters are stealing and damaging his ballots at polling stations, preventing his supporters from voting for him. (In Argentina, citizens vote by inserting a paper ballot of their preferred candidate into an envelope and dropping the sealed envelope into a box. Campaigns distribute ballots with their candidate’s name to polling stations.)Election officials dispute Mr. Milei’s claims, and his campaign has offered little evidence. His campaign’s legal director said in an interview that he had direct knowledge of only 10 to 15 written complaints from voters.Voters looking for their names on electoral lists during general elections last month in Buenos Aires.Rodrigo Abd/Associated PressThis past week, Mr. Milei’s campaign escalated its fight, filing a document with a federal judge that claimed “colossal fraud,” asserting that Argentine officials changed votes for Mr. Milei to Mr. Massa. The campaign cited anonymous sources.Mr. Milei has openly questioned the results of the 2020 U.S. election and the 2022 Brazil election, which were dogged by baseless claims of fraud that led to violent attacks on those nations’ capitols.Now, Argentines are bracing for what could happen if Mr. Milei loses. His supporters have called for protests outside the election agency’s headquarters after the polls close on Sunday.On Friday, Mr. Milei said Mr. Massa’s incumbent party “is showing very rude signs of desperation” and would most likely try to cling to power if Mr. Milei wins. In that scenario, he added, his government “will apply justice with all due force.”Lucía Cholakian Herrera More

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      Liberia’s President Concedes Election Defeat in a Knife-Edge Vote

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      President George Weah, a former soccer star whose administration had weathered accusations of corruption, announced that he had lost his bid for re-election to Joseph Boakai, a 78-year-old former vice president.Liberia’s president, George Weah, conceded defeat on Friday night in his bid for a second term, after a tight runoff against Joseph Boakai, a 78-year-old political veteran, in an election that was considered a test of democracy in the West African nation.Mr. Boakai, who had served as vice president for 12 years under the former president, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, defeated Mr. Weah, a 57-year-old former soccer star, by a razor-thin margin. The country’s national election commission stopped short of declaring a winner on Friday afternoon, but announced that with more than 99 percent of the ballots counted, Mr. Boakai held 50.89 percent of the votes, and Mr. Weah 49.11 percent. It was the nation’s tightest election in two decades, and a rematch of the election in 2017, when Mr. Weah handily beat Mr. Boakai. Mr. Weah said in a radio address broadcast late on Friday evening that while his party had lost the election, “Liberia has won.”“This is a time for graciousness in defeat, a time to place our country above party, and patriotism above personal interest,” he said. His words marked a notably peaceful transition of power at a time when many other West African countries have endured a spate of coups, aging leaders clinging to power and elections plagued by allegations of vote rigging.In Nigeria and in Sierra Leone, independent observers have cast doubt on the results of presidential contests this year. In Niger and Guinea, juntas rule despite international efforts to restore civilian governments.This is the first time since the early 1900s that an incumbent president of Liberia has not been re-elected after serving one term. The swearing-in ceremony is scheduled for January.The election, first held on Oct. 10 with the runoff on Tuesday, was the first one managed solely by Liberian authorities without international funding or assistance since the country emerged in 2003 from a ruinous civil war.Mr. Boakai plans to speak publicly on Saturday, his spokesman said. The candidate told Reuters on Friday night, “First and foremost, we want to have a message of peace and reconciliation.”The presidential campaign hinged on accusations that Mr. Weah tolerated corruption in government circles and failed to deliver jobs and development, despite the country’s economic rebound after the pandemic.One voter in the capital, Monrovia, said that he had cast a ballot for Mr. Boakai because of his promise to crack down on drug abuse and corruption.“It’s unthinkable that you would see young people getting addicted to drugs, and the president doesn’t have any idea how to tackle it,” said the voter, MacPherson Darweh, who is 45.Mr. Weah “doesn’t have a sense of belonging and does not even know how the country has been governed and run,” Mr. Darweh said. “He still thinks he is a football player running around town.”President George Weah casting his vote in Monrovia in the first round of voting last month.Guy Peterson/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesLiberia, a country of 5.5 million people, declared independence in the 19th century — a century ahead of most African countries — with a democratic political system that was modeled on that of the United States.But the country was racked by civil wars from 1989 to 2003 that left about 250,000 people dead.The Ebola epidemic between 2013 and 2016 also killed thousands, leaving the country in a precarious state and prompting the United Nations to take over organization of the country’s elections — until this year.Liberia’s economy grew by 4.8 percent in 2022, according to the World Bank, mainly driven by mining and a relatively good agricultural harvest. But more than 80 percent of the population is food insecure, the World Bank said in July, and prices of basic food products and fuel have skyrocketed over the past year, with over half of Liberians living below the poverty line, on $1.90 a day.A team of observers from the Economic Community of West African States on Wednesday congratulated Liberians for “the generally peaceful conduct of the elections so far.” The European Union said in a statement that Tuesday’s runoff was “calm” and “well organized,” and there were “organizational improvements” compared to the first round.Police officers in riot gear patrolled the streets of Monrovia, the Liberian capital, as the vote proceeded, while polling workers counted ballots late into the night by lamps and flashlights because of power cuts, which have become common in the country.Mr. Weah and Mr. Boakai had finished almost neck and neck in the first round of the election, with neither passing the 50 percent threshold required to be declared the outright winner. Mr. Weah had a narrow lead, by just over 7,000 votes.Supporters of Mr. Boakai and his Unity Party in Monrovia last month. In Liberia, 60 percent of the population is under 25. Guy Peterson/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesMr. Boakai, a political veteran in Liberia, served as agriculture minister in the 1980s, and director of the state-owned Liberian Petroleum Refinery in 1992, when the civil war raged. Although he was not implicated in any corruption scandals, as vice president he was accused by his critics of turning a blind eye to corruption in the government.In this year’s election, he seemed to gain traction by portraying himself as a safe pair of hands to steer the country in a new direction. He focused on grievances with Mr. Weah’s rule, criticizing his opponent for his lavish lifestyle and for being out of touch with Liberian society.But Mr. Boakai’s opponents focused on his being nearly 80 years old, and nicknamed him “Sleepy Joe,” accusing him of napping during a public event.The election was a rerun of the vote in 2017, when Mr. Weah defeated Mr. Boakai by a relatively large margin, capitalizing on his status as a sports superstar and political outsider who claimed he could better the lives of ordinary Liberians.Last time around, Mr. Weah’s story of ascent to the pinnacle of world soccer after growing up in a Liberian slum had resonated with young people in a nation where 60 percent of the population is under 25.But his image as an advocate for the poor cracked under the weight of graft scandals, a failure to deal with the drug crisis and soaring living costs. Under his government, Liberia has fallen 20 places on a corruption index compiled by Transparency International, ranking 142nd last year out of 180 countries.Last year, the U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on three Liberian officials, including Mr. Weah’s chief of staff, Nathaniel McGill. An investigation promised by Mr. Weah has yet to materialize.Officials with the National Elections Commission counting runoff ballots in Monrovia, on Tuesday. They worked into the night by flashlights and lamps because of power cuts, which are common in Liberia.Carielle Doe/Reuters More

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      F.B.I. Raided Homes of Second Adams Aide and Ex-Turkish Airline Official

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      On the same day the federal authorities raided the home of Mayor Eric Adams’s chief fund-raiser, they also searched the residences of two people with ties to Turkey.As F.B.I. agents searched the home of Mayor Eric Adams’s chief fund-raiser earlier this month for evidence his campaign conspired with Turkey, separate teams executed warrants at the residences of two others with ties to the mayor and that country, several people with knowledge of the matter said.In addition to the home of the fund-raiser, Brianna Suggs, investigators also searched the New Jersey houses of Rana Abbasova, an aide in Mr. Adams’s international affairs office, four of the people said, and Cenk Öcal, a former Turkish Airlines executive who served on his transition team, two people said.The coordinated raids were the first public sign of a broad corruption investigation into the mayor’s 2021 campaign. As part of the inquiry, the F.B.I. and federal prosecutors in Manhattan are examining whether the Turkish government conspired with Mr. Adams’s campaign to funnel foreign donations into campaign coffers and whether Mr. Adams pressured Fire Department officials to sign off on a new high-rise Turkish consulate despite safety concerns.Both Ms. Abbasova and Mr. Öcal have ties to Turkey. She was Mr. Adams’s longtime liaison to the Turkish community when he served as Brooklyn borough president; he was the general manager of the New York office of Turkish Airlines until early last year. Ms. Abbasova, Mr. Öcal, Ms. Suggs and Mr. Adams have not been accused of wrongdoing.The searches began early on the morning of Nov. 2, when a team of F.B.I. agents descended on the brick Fort Lee, N.J., townhouse of Ms. Abbasova, 41, who serves as the director of protocol in the Mayor’s Office for International Affairs. It was not clear what, if anything, they took from the home.A separate team of agents visited the New Jersey home of Mr. Öcal, a former flight attendant who, according to his LinkedIn page, rose to become a Turkish Airlines general manager, first in Sofia, Bulgaria, and then in New York. Mr. Öcal, according to a Turkish news report, was fired from the airline in early 2022 during a shake-up at the company.Ms. Abbasova and Mr. Öcal did not respond to messages seeking comment, and it could not immediately be determined whether they had hired lawyers.Evan Thies, a spokesman for Mr. Adams’s campaign, said, “Ms. Abbasova was not employed by or paid by the campaign.” Fabien Levy, a spokesman for City Hall, said in a statement that the mayor was cooperating with investigators. Mr. Adams has denied any wrongdoing and, through his attorney Boyd Johnson, noted that the campaign had proactively reported an unidentified individual to federal investigators for recently acting “improperly.”On Thursday, two people briefed on the matter confirmed earlier reporting in The New York Post that the individual was Ms. Abbasova. Mr. Thies declined to elaborate on the conduct in question.Representatives for the F.B.I. and the United States Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York declined to comment.The raids occurred on the same morning that agents searched Ms. Suggs’s Brooklyn home and left with three iPhones, two laptop computers and other evidence, records show.The searches came as federal officials were examining potential malfeasance in Mr. Adams’s 2021 campaign, an inquiry so far-reaching that, last Monday, agents approached Mr. Adams on the street outside of an event in Manhattan, asked his security detail to step aside, and climbed into his car alongside him. Pursuant to a court-authorized warrant, they seized his electronic devices.Less than three weeks ago, Ms. Abbasova, who earns $81,000 in her current post, stood just behind Mr. Adams’s right shoulder during a flag-raising ceremony at Bowling Green to mark the 100th anniversary of the Turkish republic. The Turkish consul general and U.S. ambassador were in attendance as Mr. Adams spoke of his affection for the country.“I‘m probably the only mayor in the history of this city that has not only visited Turkey — Türkiye — once, but I think I’m on my sixth or seventh visit to Türkiye,” Mr. Adams said.In a 2017 interview with a pro-government Turkish news outlet, Mr. Adams said he preferred to fly Turkish Airlines on international trips, in part because the airline accommodated his dietary needs as a vegan. “Turkish Airlines is my way of flying,” he told the newspaper.At the flag raising, Ms. Abbasova handed a folder containing an honorary citation to the mayor, who awarded it to a local Turkish community member. Then she distributed small red Turkish flags to some children.She began working for Mr. Adams as a volunteer in his first term as borough president, as he tried to make inroads to the Turkish and Azerbaijani communities in Brooklyn. She was given an office to use at Borough Hall, a former aide said.She has been on his government staff since at least 2018, when city records indicate she joined the borough president’s office as a “community coordinator,” earning $50,000 a year. Her title in 2021 was “assistant to the compliance unit,” according to a list provided to Mr. Adams’s successor as borough president, Antonio Reynoso, Kristina Naplatarski, a spokeswoman for Mr. Reynoso, said.While there, Ms. Abbasova managed relationships between Mr. Adams and “stakeholders” from the Middle East and Central Asia, “organized Turkic heritage events,” “assisted with sister cities agreements,” and “worked with embassies and consulates to build relationships,” according to her profile on the website of the Mayor’s Office for International Affairs.In 2015, several years before she officially joined his staff, Ms. Abbasova traveled to Turkey with Mr. Adams on a trip sponsored by the Turkish consulate and the World Tourism Forum Institute, an organization whose mission is to boost global tourism.The current borough president’s office does not have a position like the one held by Ms. Abbasova, according to Ms. Naplatarski.“We do not,” she said, “nor have we ever under this administration.”Susan Beachy More