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      The Bush-Obama Blueprint That Gives Biden Hope for ’24

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      President Biden isn’t the first incumbent to face grim polling a year out from Election Day.Well before Election Day in 2004, President George W. Bush was warned by strategists that he would face a tough campaign battle because of voter distress over the war in Iraq and over the economy — two issues he had once hoped to ride to a second term.Mr. Bush’s aides moved quickly to retool the campaign. They turned attention away from the president and his record and set out to portray his likely Democratic opponent, Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, a Vietnam War veteran, as a flip-flopper, unreliable on national security and unfit to lead a nation still reeling from the terror attacks of Sept. 11.“We saw a weakness we knew we could exploit to our advantage in what was going to be a close election,” said Karl Rove, Mr. Bush’s longtime senior political adviser.Eight years later, aides to another sitting president, Barack Obama, reviewing public and private polls, concluded that concern among voters about the lingering effects of the Great Recession and the direction of the nation could derail his hopes for a second term.Taking a lesson from Mr. Bush, Mr. Obama recast his campaign away from his first-term record and set out to discredit his opponent, Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, as a wealthy businessman unsympathetic to working-class Americans.President Biden is hardly the first president during this era of division and polarization to be confronted with polling data suggesting his re-election was at risk. But the re-election campaigns rolled out by Mr. Bush and Mr. Obama, who both returned to second terms in the White House, stand today as reminders that polls this early are not predictions of what will happen on Election Day. In the hands of a nimble candidate, they can even be a road map for turning around a struggling campaign.Mr. Bush and Mr. Obama were different candidates facing different obstacles: a quagmire of a war for Mr. Bush, a domestic economy shaken by the global financial crisis of 2008 for Mr. Obama. But both moved to transform their re-election campaigns from a referendum on the incumbent into a contrast with an opponent they defined, with slashing television advertisements, months before either Mr. Romney or Mr. Kerry were nominated at their party conventions.By contrast, a modern-day Republican president who lost a bid for a second term, George H.W. Bush in 1992, failed to heed polls showing voters distressed about the economy and ready for a change after 12 years of Republicans in the White House.The elder Mr. Bush, his aides said in recent interviews, was lulled by the accolades for leading the coalition that repelled Saddam Hussein and Iraq out of Kuwait, and contempt for his opponent, a young Democratic governor who had avoided the draft and had a history of extramarital liaisons.Former President Barack Obama recast his campaign to discredit his opponent, Mitt Romney, as a wealthy businessman unsympathetic to working-class Americans.Doug Mills/The New York Times“Biden has a very high degree of difficulty but I think the race is winnable,” said David Plouffe, who was a senior adviser to Mr. Obama’s re-election campaign. “Listen, I have sympathy for an incumbent president or governor who says, ‘people need to know more about my accomplishments.’ That is true, but at the end of the day this is a comparative exercise. That’s the one thing we learned.”The Biden White House has dismissed polls — including a New York Times/Siena College poll released last week — as meaningless this far before Election Day. The president’s advisers pointed to Democratic gains in this month’s elections as evidence that the party and its standard-bearer are in fine shape.Yet, after months of trying to run on his economic record with little sign of success, Mr. Biden has begun turning his attention more to Donald J. Trump, the Republican former president and his likely opponent, particularly his policies on immigration and abortion rights. That includes an advertisement that shows Mr. Trump plodding through a golf course as the announcer said that Mr. Trump pushed through tax cuts “for his rich friends” while U.S. automakers shut down plants.“We are absolutely looking at ways that we can help drive the conversation around Trump and MAGA as much as we can,” said Kevin Munoz, the Biden campaign spokesman. But, Mr. Munoz added, “We are in a different position than Obama and Bush. We had very strong midterms. We have had very strong special elections. Our theory of the case was proved again last Tuesday.”Upending the race dynamics might prove more daunting for Mr. Biden than for his predecessors. Mr. Obama and George W. Bush were able to discredit Mr. Romney and Mr. Kerry because voters, at this early stage of the general election campaign, did not know much about them.But there is not much the Biden campaign can tell voters about Mr. Trump that they don’t already know. (Or for that matter, not much Mr. Biden can tell voters about Mr. Biden that they don’t already know.) And Mr. Trump has, so far at least, not paid a political cost for the kind of statements — such as when he described his critics as “vermin” — that might have previously derailed a more conventional candidate. Being indicted on 91 criminal counts in four cases has, so far, only solidified his support.When Mr. Bush’s campaign began planning for his re-election, they confronted polling numbers that — while not as unnerving for the president as some that have come out in recent weeks about Mr. Biden — were cause for concern. A poll by the Pew Research Group found that 46 percent of respondents said Mr. Bush’s economic policies had made the economy worse and 39 percent said American troops should be brought back from Iraq as soon as possible; up from 32 percent the month before.“We decided early on that we wanted to make the election about national security even though the economy was the No. 1 issue,” said Matthew Dowd, the chief strategist for Mr. Bush’s 2004 campaign. “We were at a disadvantage to Dems on the economy. And as part of that strategy, we desired to define Kerry negatively on national security early on, and as a weak flip-flopping leader so we could position Bush as a strong leader and strong on national security.”Before long, the Bush campaign was on the air with advertisements assailing Mr. Kerry for pledging to roll back the Patriot Act, giving the federal government expanded powers to go after terrorists. The Patriot Act was passed shortly after the Sept. 11 attacks with overwhelming support in Congress — including Mr. Kerry.“John Kerry. Playing politics with national security,” an announcer said.Former President George W. Bush confronted polling numbers that — while not as unnerving for the president as some that have come out in recent weeks about Mr. Biden — were cause for concern.Doug Mills/The New York TimesEight years later, as Mr. Obama mounted his re-election campaign, many Americans were telling pollsters that the country was heading in the wrong direction and that they were worse off financially than they had been before Mr. Obama took office. For instance, a Washington Post/ABC News poll found three-quarters of Americans saying the country was heading in the wrong direction.Mr. Obama’s advisers studied the re-election campaigns of other embattled sitting presidents. “We knew that most re-elect campaigns were a referendum,” said Joel Benenson, who was the pollster for Mr. Obama’s team. “We also knew we had this massive economic crisis which absolutely was not all of Obama’s making. But we also knew you are the incumbent president, and you can’t blame it on your predecessor. We couldn’t convince them that the economy was getting better.”But Mr. Romney, he said, “was not fully formed with voters,” which was an opportunity to spotlight his wealth and portray him as someone whose policies would favor the rich.By contrast, George H.W. Bush, aides said, disregarded the warnings, confident the near 90 percent voter approval rating he registered after the war in Kuwait made his re-election all but certain. “The adulation from the war somehow muted the normal political instincts of a lot of people around the president,” said Ron Kaufman, who was a senior adviser to that campaign.Mr. Rove said Mr. Biden was in worse shape today than the elder Mr. Bush had been in 1992. “Bush seemed bereft of ideas for the future, but people saw him as an admirable human being,” Mr. Rove said. “The problem for Biden is that people have concluded he’s not up to the job — too old and lacking the necessary stamina and mental acuity.”In recent polls conducted in five battleground states by The New York Times and Siena College, 71 percent of respondents said Mr. Biden was “too old” to be an effective president.Mr. Plouffe said the Biden campaign should embrace the lesson the Obama campaign learned studying the losing campaign of the elder Mr. Bush. “The Bush people tried to convince people that the economy was better than they thought it was,” he said. “One thing I’ve learned is you can’t tell people what they think about the economy. They’ll tell you what they think about the economy.”“I’d start every speech saying, ‘America is faced with a choice, we are both old white men,’” Mr. Plouffe said. “‘But that’s where the similarities end.’” More

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      Global Markets Cheer on Better Than Expected Inflation Data

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      A better-than-expected Consumer Price Index report triggered a big surge in stocks and bonds, as investors bet that interest rates will begin to fall.Upbeat investors see Tuesday’s inflation data as a possible turning point in the Fed’s battle against soaring prices.Michael M. Santiago/Getty ImagesGood news for global markets Yesterday’s impressive rally in U.S. stocks and bonds has gone worldwide this morning, as investors see central banks making gains in their fight against inflation. Adding to the good news was a breakthrough in the House last night that could avert a government shutdown.S&P 500 futures signal further gains at the opening bell. The question now is whether this represents a false dawn on inflation, or the start of a durable decline in rising costs — and interest rates.Here’s what’s exciting investors: Yesterday’s cooler-than-expected Consumer Price Index data has shifted discussion in the markets from potential interest rate hikes to cuts, and what that might mean for stocks. President Biden, whose poll ratings have been hurt by inflation, also cheered the numbers.Other promising data points came out this morning. Inflation in Britain fell to its lowest level in two years. And consumer spending and industrial output in China rebounded last month, a hopeful sign for the world’s No. 2 economy.Market optimists have moved up their bets on rate cuts. Futures markets this morning pointed to the Fed starting to lower borrowing costs by May, sooner than previous estimates of closer to the end of 2024.Less aggressive is Mohit Kumar, the chief financial economist at Jefferies, who wrote today that big rate cuts would begin after the presidential election next year. Jefferies predicts the Fed’s prime lending rate going to 3 percent by the end of 2025 from its current level of 5.25 to 5.5 percent.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.We are confirming your access to this article, this will take just a moment. However, if you are using Reader mode please log in, subscribe, or exit Reader mode since we are unable to verify access in that state.Confirming article access.If you are a subscriber, please  More

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      La IA hace campaña en las elecciones de Argentina

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      Los afiches que salpican las calles de Buenos Aires tienen un cierto toque soviético.Había uno de Sergio Massa, uno de los candidatos presidenciales de Argentina, vestido con una camisa con lo que parecían ser medallas militares, señalando a un cielo azul. Lo rodeaban cientos de personas mayores —con atuendos monótonos, rostros serios y a menudo desfigurados— que lo miraban con esperanza.El estilo no era un error. El ilustrador había recibido instrucciones claras.“Ilustración de afiche de propaganda política soviética de Gustav Klutsis con un líder, masssa, de pie y firme”, decía un mensaje que la campaña de Massa introdujo en un programa de inteligencia artificial para producir la imagen. “Símbolos de unidad y poder llenan el entorno”, continuaba el comando o prompt. “La imagen irradia autoridad y determinación”.Javier Milei, el otro candidato en la segunda vuelta electoral del domingo, ha contraatacado compartiendo lo que parecen ser imágenes creadas con inteligencia artificial que representan a Massa como un líder comunista chino y a sí mismo como un adorable león de dibujos animados. Han sido vistas más de 30 millones de veces.Las elecciones argentinas se han convertido rápidamente en un campo de pruebas para la inteligencia artificial en las campañas electorales, con los dos candidatos y sus partidarios empleando la tecnología para adulterar imágenes y videos existentes y crear otros desde cero.La inteligencia artificial ha hecho que los candidatos digan cosas que no decían y los ha colocado en películas y memes famosos. Ha generado carteles de campaña y desencadenado debates sobre si los videos reales son efectivamente reales.El papel destacado de la inteligencia artificial en la campaña de Argentina y el debate político que ha suscitado subrayan la creciente prevalencia de la tecnología y demuestran que, con su creciente poder y su costo cada vez menor, es probable que ahora sea un factor en muchas elecciones democráticas de todo el mundo.Los expertos comparan este momento con los primeros días de las redes sociales, una tecnología que ofrece nuevas y tentadoras herramientas para la política, así como amenazas imprevistas.La campaña de Massa ha creado un sistema de inteligencia artificial que puede crear imágenes y videos de muchos de los principales protagonistas de las elecciones —los candidatos, los compañeros de fórmula, los aliados políticos— haciendo una gran variedad de cosas.La campaña ha usado inteligencia artificial para retratar a Massa, el serio ministro de Economía de centroizquierda, como fuerte, intrépido y carismático, incluyendo videos que lo muestran como soldado en una guerra, un Cazafantasmas e Indiana Jones, así como afiches que evocan al cartel “Hope” de la campaña de 2008 de Barack Obama y a una portada de The New Yorker.La campaña también ha usado al sistema para retratar al candidato oponente, Milei —un economista libertario de extrema derecha y figura televisiva conocida por sus arrebatos—, como inestable, colocándolo en películas como La naranja mecánica y Pánico y locura en Las Vegas.Mucho del contenido ha sido claramente falso. Pero un puñado de creaciones pisaron la línea de la desinformación. La campaña de Massa produjo un video ultrafalso, conocido como deepfake en inglés, en el cual Milei explica cómo funcionaría un mercado de órganos humanos, algo que él ha dicho que filosóficamente encaja con sus opiniones libertarias.“Imaginate tener hijos y pensar que cada uno de ellos es como una inversión a largo plazo. No en el sentido tradicional, sino pensando en el potencial económico de sus órganos en el futuro”, dice la imagen manipulada de Milei en el video falsificado, publicado por la campaña de Massa en su cuenta de Instagram para inteligencia artificial llamado IAxlaPatria.La leyenda de la publicación dice: “Le pedimos a una Inteligencia Artificial que lo ayude a Javier a explicar el negocio de la venta de órganos y esto sucedió”.En una entrevista, Massa dijo que la primera vez que vio lo que la inteligencia artificial podía hacer se quedó impactado. “No tenía la cabeza preparada para el mundo que me iba a tocar vivir a mí”, dijo. “Es un enorme desafío, estamos arriba de un caballo al que tenemos que cabalgar y no le conocemos las mañas”.The New York Times entonces le mostró el ultrafalso que su campaña había creado en donde aparece Milei hablando de los órganos humanos. Pareció perturbado. “Sobre ese uso no estoy de acuerdo”, dijo.Su vocero luego recalcó que la publicación era en broma y que estaba claramente etiquetada como generada por inteligencia artificial. Su campaña aseguró en un comunicado que su uso de la tecnología es para divertir y hacer observaciones políticas, no para engañar.Los investigadores hace tiempo que han expresado preocupación por los efectos de la IA en las elecciones. La tecnología tiene la capacidad de confundir y engañar a los votantes, crear dudas sobre lo que es real y añadir desinformación que puede propagarse por las redes sociales.Durante años, dichos temores han sido de carácter especulativo puesto que la tecnología para producir contenidos falsos de ese tipo era demasiado complicada, costosa y burda.“Ahora hemos visto esta total explosión de conjuntos de herramientas increíblemente accesibles y cada vez más potentes que se han democratizado, y esa apreciación ha cambiado de manera radical”, dijo Henry Ajder, experto afincado en Inglaterra que ha brindado asesoría a gobiernos sobre contenido generado con IA.Este año, un candidato a la alcaldía de Toronto empleó imágenes de personas sin hogar generadas por IA de tono sombrío para insinuar cómo sería Toronto si no resultaba electo. En Estados Unidos, el Partido Republicano publicó un video creado con IA que muestra a China invadiendo Taiwán y otras escenas distópicas para ilustrar lo que supuestamente sucedería si el presidente Biden ganara la reelección.Y la campaña del gobernador de Florida, Ron DeSantis, compartió un video que mostraba imágenes generadas por IA donde aparece Donald Trump abrazando a Anthony Fauci, el médico que se ha convertido en enemigo de la derecha estadounidense por su papel como líder de la respuesta nacional frente a la pandemia.Hasta ahora, el contenido generado por IA compartido por las campañas en Argentina ha sido etiquetado para identificar su origen o es una falsificación tan evidente que es poco probable que engañe incluso a los votantes más crédulos. Más bien, la tecnología ha potenciado la capacidad de crear contenido viral que antiguamente habría requerido el trabajo de equipos enteros de diseñadores gráficos durante días o semanas.Meta, la empresa dueña de Facebook e Instagram, dijo esta semana que iba a exigir que los avisos políticos indiquen si usaron IA. Otras publicaciones no pagadas en sitios que emplean esa tecnología, incluso relacionados con política, no iban a requerir indicar tal información. La Comisión Federal de Elecciones en EE. UU. también está evaluando si va a regular el uso de IA en propaganda política.El Instituto de Diálogo Estratégico, un grupo de investigación con sede en Londres que estudia las plataformas de internet, firmó una carta en la que se hace un llamado a implementar este tipo de regulaciones. Isabelle Frances-Wright, la directora de tecnología y sociedad del grupo, comentó que el uso extenso de IA en las elecciones argentinas era preocupante.“Sin duda considero que es un terreno resbaladizo”, dijo. “De aquí a un año lo que ya se ve muy real solo lo parecerá más”.La campaña de Massa dijo que decidió usar IA en un esfuerzo por mostrar que el peronismo, el movimiento político de 78 años de antigüedad que respalda a Massa, es capaz de atraer a los votantes jóvenes al rodear la imagen de Massa de cultura pop y de memes.Imagen generada con IA por la campaña de MassaPara lograrlo, ingenieros y artistas de la campaña subieron a un programa de código abierto llamado Stable Diffusion fotografías de distintas figuras políticas argentinas a fin de entrenar a su sistema de IA para que creara imágenes falsas de esas personas reales. Ahora pueden producir con rapidez una imagen o un video en donde aparezcan más de una decena de notables personalidades de la política de Argentina haciendo prácticamente lo que le indiquen.Durante la campaña, el equipo de comunicación de Massa instruyó a los artistas que trabajaban con la IA de la campaña sobre los mensajes o emociones que deseaban suscitar con las imágenes, por ejemplo: unidad nacional, valores familiares o miedo. Los artistas luego hacían lluvia de ideas para insertar a Massa o a Milei, así como a otros políticos, en contenido que evoca películas, memes, estilos artísticos o momentos históricos.Para Halloween, la campaña de Massa le pidió a su IA que creara una serie de imágenes caricaturescas de Milei y sus aliados en donde parecieran zombis. La campaña también empleó IA para crear un tráiler cinematográfico dramático en donde aparece Buenos Aires en llamas, Milei como un villano malvado en una camisa de fuerza y Massa en el papel del héroe que va a salvar el país.Las imágenes de IA también han hecho su aparición en el mundo real. Los afiches soviéticos estuvieron entre las decenas de diseños que campaña y seguidores de Massa imprimieron y pegaron en los espacios públicos de Argentina.Algunas imágenes fueron generadas por la IA de la campaña mientras que otras fueron creadas por simpatizantes que usaron IA, entre ellas una de las más conocidas, una en la que Massa monta un caballo al estilo de José de San Martín, héroe de la independencia argentina.“Massa estaba muy acartonado”, dijo Octavio Tome, organizador comunitario que ayudó a crear la imagen. “Esa imagen da un Massa con impronta jefe. Hay algo muy fuerte de la argentinidad”.Simpatizantes de Massa colocaron afiches generados con IA en donde aparece como el prócer de la independencia argentina José de San Martín.Sarah Pabst para The New York TimesEl surgimiento de la inteligencia artificial en las elecciones argentinas también ha causado que algunos votantes duden de la realidad. Luego de que la semana pasada circuló un video en donde se veía a Massa exhausto tras un acto de campaña, sus críticos lo acusaron de estar drogado. Sus seguidores rápidamente respondieron que el video en realidad era un deepfake.No obstante, su campaña confirmó que el video era, en efecto, real.Massa comentó que la gente ya estaba usando la tecnología para intentar encubrir errores del pasado o escándalos. “Es muy fácil escudarse en la inteligencia artificial cuando aparecen cosas que dijiste y no querías que se supieran”, dijo Massa en la entrevista.Al principio de la contienda, Patricia Bullrich, una candidata que no logró pasar a la segunda vuelta, intentó explicar que eran falsas unas grabaciones de audio filtradas en donde su asesor económico le ofrecía trabajo a una mujer a cambio de sexo. “Te hacen voces con inteligencia artificial, te recortan videos, te meten audios que nadie sabe de dónde salen”, dijo.No está claro si los audios eran falsos o reales.Jack Nicas es el jefe de la corresponsalía en Brasil, que abarca Brasil, Argentina, Chile, Paraguay y Uruguay. Anteriormente reportó sobre tecnología desde San Francisco y, antes de integrarse al Times en 2018, trabajó siete años en The Wall Street Journal. Más de Jack Nicas More

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      Is Argentina the First A.I. Election?

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      The posters dotting the streets of Buenos Aires had a certain Soviet flare to them.There was one of Argentina’s presidential candidates, Sergio Massa, dressed in a shirt with what appeared to be military medals, pointing to a blue sky. He was surrounded by hundreds of older people — in drab clothing, with serious, and often disfigured, faces — looked toward him in hope.The style was no mistake. The illustrator had been given clear instructions.“Sovietic Political propaganda poster illustration by Gustav Klutsis featuring a leader, masssa, standing firmly,” said a prompt that Mr. Massa’s campaign fed into an artificial-intelligence program to produce the image. “Symbols of unity and power fill the environment,” the prompt continued. “The image exudes authority and determination.”Javier Milei, the other candidate in Sunday’s runoff election, has struck back by sharing what appear to be A.I. images depicting Mr. Massa as a Chinese communist leader and himself as a cuddly cartoon lion. They have been viewed more than 30 million times.Argentina’s election has quickly become a testing ground for A.I. in campaigns, with the two candidates and their supporters employing the technology to doctor existing images and videos and create others from scratch.A.I. has made candidates say things they did not, and put them in famous movies and memes. It has created campaign posters, and triggered debates over whether real videos are actually real.A.I.’s prominent role in Argentina’s campaign and the political debate it has set off underscore the technology’s growing prevalence and show that, with its expanding power and falling cost, it is now likely to be a factor in many democratic elections around the globe.Experts compare the moment to the early days of social media, a technology offering tantalizing new tools for politics — and unforeseen threats.Mr. Massa’s campaign has created an A.I. system that can create images and videos of many of the election’s main players — the candidates, running mates, political allies — doing a wide variety of things. The campaign has used A.I. to portray Mr. Massa, Argentina’s staid center-left economy minister, as strong, fearless and charismatic, including videos that show him as a soldier in war, a Ghostbuster and Indiana Jones, as well as posters that evoke Barack Obama’s 2008 “Hope” poster and a cover of The New Yorker.The campaign has also used the system to depict his opponent, Mr. Milei — a far-right libertarian economist and television personality known for outbursts — as unstable, putting him in films like “Clockwork Orange” and “Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas.”Much of the content has been clearly fake. But a few creations have toed the line of disinformation. The Massa campaign produced one “deepfake” video in which Mr. Milei explains how a market for human organs would work, something he has said philosophically fits in with his libertarian views.“Imagine having kids and thinking that each is a long-term investment. Not in the traditional sense, but thinking of the economic potential of their organs,” says the manipulated image of Mr. Milei in the fabricated video, posted by the Massa campaign on its Instagram account for A.I. content, called “A.I. for the Homeland.”The post’s caption says, “We asked an Artificial Intelligence to help Javier explain the business of selling organs and this happened.”In an interview, Mr. Massa said he was shocked the first time he saw what A.I. could do. “I didn’t have my mind prepared for the world that I’m going to live in,” he said. “It’s a huge challenge. We’re on a horse that we have to ride but we still don’t know its tricks.”The New York Times then showed him the deepfake his campaign created of Mr. Milei and human organs. He appeared disturbed. “I don’t agree with that use,” he said.His spokesman later stressed that the post was in jest and clearly labeled A.I.-generated. His campaign said in a statement that its use of A.I. is to entertain and make political points, not deceive.Researchers have long worried about the impact of A.I. on elections. The technology can deceive and confuse voters, casting doubt over what is real, adding to the disinformation that can be spread by social networks.For years, those fears had largely been speculative because the technology to produce such fakes was too complicated, expensive and unsophisticated.“Now we’ve seen this absolute explosion of incredibly accessible and increasingly powerful democratized tool sets, and that calculation has radically changed,” said Henry Ajder, an expert based in England who has advised governments on A.I.-generated content.This year, a mayoral candidate in Toronto used gloomy A.I.-generated images of homeless people to telegraph what Toronto would turn into if he weren’t elected. In the United States, the Republican Party posted a video created with A.I. that shows China invading Taiwan and other dystopian scenes to depict what it says would happen if President Biden wins a second term.And the campaign of Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida shared a video showing A.I.-generated images of Donald J. Trump hugging Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, who has become an enemy on the American right for his role leading the nation’s pandemic response.So far, the A.I.-generated content shared by the campaigns in Argentina has either been labeled A.I. generated or is so clearly fabricated that it is unlikely it would deceive even the most credulous voters. Instead, the technology has supercharged the ability to create viral content that previously would have taken teams of graphic designers days or weeks to complete.Meta, the company that owns Facebook and Instagram, said this week that it would require political ads to disclose whether they used A.I. Other unpaid posts on the sites that use A.I., even if related to politics, would not be required to carry any disclosures. The U.S. Federal Election Commission is also considering whether to regulate the use of A.I. in political ads.The Institute for Strategic Dialogue, a London-based research group that studies internet platforms, signed a letter urging such regulations. Isabelle Frances-Wright, the group’s head of technology and society, said the extensive use of A.I. in Argentina’s election was worrisome.“I absolutely think it’s a slippery slope,” she said. “In a year from now, what already seems very realistic will only seem more so.” The Massa campaign said it decided to use A.I. in an effort to show that Peronism, the 78-year-old political movement behind Mr. Massa, can appeal to young voters by mixing Mr. Massa’s image with pop and meme culture.An A.I.-generated image created by Mr. Massa’s campaign.To do so, campaign engineers and artists fed photos of Argentina’s various political players into an open-source software called Stable Diffusion to train their own A.I. system so that it could create fake images of those real people. They can now quickly produce an image or video of more than a dozen top political players in Argentina doing almost anything they ask.During the campaign, Mr. Massa’s communications team has briefed artists working with the campaign’s A.I. on which messages or emotions they want the images to impart, such as national unity, family values and fear. The artists have then brainstormed ideas to put Mr. Massa or Mr. Milei, as well as other political figures, into content that references films, memes, artistic styles or moments in history.For Halloween, the Massa campaign told its A.I. to create a series of cartoonish images of Mr. Milei and his allies as zombies. The campaign also used A.I. to create a dramatic movie trailer, featuring Buenos Aires, Argentina’s capital, burning, Mr. Milei as an evil villain in a straitjacket and Mr. Massa as the hero who will save the country.The A.I. images have also shown up in the real world. The Soviet posters were one of the dozens of designs that Mr. Massa’s campaign and supporters printed to post across Argentina’s public spaces.Some images were generated by the campaign’s A.I., while others were created by supporters using A.I., including one of the most well-known, an image of Mr. Massa riding a horse in the style of José de San Martín, an Argentine independence hero. “Massa was too stiff,” said Octavio Tome, a community organizer who helped create the image. “We’re showing a boss-like Massa, and he’s very Argentine.”Supporters of Mr. Massa put up AI-generated posters depicting him in the style of José de San Martín, an Argentine independence hero.Sarah Pabst for The New York TimesThe rise of A.I. in Argentina’s election has also made some voters question what is real. After a video circulated last week of Mr. Massa looking exhausted after a campaign event, his critics accused him of being on drugs. His supporters quickly struck back, claiming the video was actually a deepfake.His campaign confirmed, however, that the video was, in fact, real.Mr. Massa said people were already using A.I. to try to cover up past mistakes or scandals. “It’s very easy to hide behind artificial intelligence when something you said come out, and you didn’t want them to,” Mr. Massa said in the interview.Earlier in the race, Patricia Bullrich, a candidate who failed to qualify for the runoff, tried to explain away leaked audio recordings of her economic adviser offering a woman a job in exchange for sex by saying the recordings were fabricated. “They can fake voices, alter videos,” she said.Were the recordings real or fake? It’s unclear. More

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      Death of Zimbabwe Opposition Activist Raises Fears of Political Crisis

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      Leaders of the main opposition party said a member had been abducted while campaigning, the latest in a string of political violence.An activist with Zimbabwe’s main opposition party was found dead on the side of a road in the capital, Harare, the police said on Tuesday. A party spokesman said he had been abducted while campaigning in a local election over the weekend.The death of the activist, Tapfumanei Masaya, is the latest in what opposition and civil society leaders say has been a string of violent episodes fueling a growing political crisis in the southern African nation since national elections were held in August.President Emmerson Mnangagwa and his governing ZANU-PF party maintained power in the August vote, despite doubts raised by regional and international observers about the election’s credibility.Mr. Masaya, 51, a pastor, was campaigning door to door on Saturday to promote a candidate along with other members of the political party Citizens Coalition for Change when multiple S.U.V.s pulled up and attackers jumped out and chased them, said Gift Ostallos Siziba, a spokesman for the party.When Mr. Masaya stopped to help a fellow activist who is disabled, the attackers pounced, beating them and taking them away in separate vehicles, Mr. Siziba said.The attackers eventually dropped off the disabled activist, still alive, on the road but kept Mr. Masaya, Mr. Siziba said. He was discovered dead on Sunday, his body disfigured by the slashes of a machete, the spokesman said.Mr. Masaya’s death has raised alarm in a nation where, officials with Citizens Coalition for Change say, at least four of their members have been killed since last year. Mr. Masaya was the fourth party member to have been abducted and tortured over the past two months — though the other three survived, according to a post on X, formerly Twitter, by David Coltart, a senator with the party.In one of those cases, Takudzwa Ngadziore, a member of Parliament, posted a video on Facebook of what he said was his own abduction. In the short, shaky clip, he is seen in a suit and tie, breathing heavily, and a man wearing a cap with a Mercedes logo and carrying a rifle rushes toward him. Then the footage ends.The police confirmed the identity of Mr. Masaya in a statement released on Tuesday, but said they were still investigating the circumstances surrounding his death.Farai Muroiwa Marapira, the director of information and publicity for the governing ZANU-PF party, said it was disrespectful and irresponsible of the opposition to jump to conclusions about the death before the police investigation had been completed.ZANU-PF had nothing to do with Mr. Masaya’s death, he said. The opposition, he said, “would rather seek political mileage on the loss of a family.”Several abductions and some of Zimbabwe’s worst post-colonial political violence occurred in the aftermath of the highly controversial 2008 elections, leading to a power-sharing agreement between ZANU-PF and the main opposition party at the time, the Movement for Democratic Change.The lack of police intervention or other efforts by the state to curb the violence “creates a culture of impunity in the country, and those behind the abductions and rights abuses would continue doing it, knowing that nothing would happen to them,” said Rawlings Magede, spokesman for Heal Zimbabwe Trust, a nonprofit peace-building organization.Mr. Magede said that “the human rights situation in Zimbabwe continues to deteriorate” after this year’s elections.An observer mission from the Southern African Development Community criticized this year’s vote, saying there had been several irregularities, an almost unprecedented rebuke from a regional body that tends to avoid openly criticizing member nations.The election, Mr. Siziba said, had created “a crisis of illegitimacy where the state is turning against its own citizens.”Mr. Marapira rejected that assertion, saying that the Citizens Coalition for Change had not challenged the election result in court within the time frame allowed by Zimbabwean law.“In the media, anyone given attention can say what they want whether there is truth, fiction or absence of reality,” he said. “The crisis is only in the imagination of the opposition.”Jeffrey Moyo More

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      Ukraine Indicts Officials Linked to Efforts to Investigate the Bidens

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      Three officials were accused of operating at the behest of Russian intelligence when they aligned with efforts by Rudolph W. Giuliani to tie the Biden family to corruption in Ukraine. Ukrainian police and prosecutors have accused two politicians and a former prosecutor of treason, saying they colluded with a Russian intelligence agency in aiding an effort by Rudolph W. Giuliani several years ago to tie the Biden family to corruption in Ukraine.Those accused include Kostyantyn Kulyk, a former Ukrainian deputy prosecutor general who had drafted a memo in 2019 suggesting Ukraine investigate Hunter Biden, President Biden’s son, for his role serving on the board of a Ukrainian energy company. Also implicated were a current member of Ukraine’s Parliament, Oleksandr Dubinsky, and a former member, Andriy Derkach, who had publicly advocated for an investigation in Ukraine into Hunter Biden. They had also promoted a spurious theory that it was Ukraine, and not Russia, that had meddled in the 2016 presidential election in the United States.The three were indicted on charges of treason and belonging to a criminal organization. The charges refer to “information-subversive activities” and focus on actions in 2019 before the American presidential election. They do not say if or when the activity stopped. In the run-up to the 2020 election in the United States, Mr. Giuliani and later former President Donald J. Trump had encouraged Ukrainian officials to follow up on the allegations against Hunter Biden. The effort included a phone call by Mr. Trump to President Volodymyr Zelensky in July of 2019 urging an investigation into the Bidens, at a time when the Trump administration was withholding military aid for the Ukrainian Army. Andriy Derkach attends a news conference in Kyiv in 2019.Gleb Garanich/ReutersCritics say that pressure to investigate the Bidens was politically motivated, aimed at harming the elder Mr. Biden’s chances against Mr. Trump in the 2020 presidential election. Mr. Trump and Mr. Giuliani denied that there was anything inappropriate about their contact with Ukrainian officials, with Mr. Trump describing his phone call to Mr. Zelensky as “perfect.” The administration said military aid to Ukraine was withheld over concerns about corruption in the Ukrainian government. The events led to Mr. Trump’s first impeachment in the House of Representatives. He was acquitted in the Senate.Ukrainian media on Tuesday suggested the indictments, too, had a political component for Mr. Zelensky: that they were intended to send a signal to Mr. Biden now, as his administration is pressing Congress for military assistance to Ukraine, that Kyiv will root out accused Russian agents, including those who had promoted accusations against his family.In statements released on Monday, Ukrainian police and the country’s domestic intelligence agency said all three men were members of a spy network established inside the Ukrainian government and handled by Russia’s military intelligence agency, known as the G.R.U.The intelligence agency’s statement said the Russians paid members of the group $10 million. An aide to Mr. Derkach, Ihor Kolesnikov, was detained earlier and convicted on treason charges.Two members of the group, Mr. Derkach and Mr. Kulyk, fled Ukraine after Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, the statement said. Mr. Dubinsky was remanded to pretrial detention in a Ukrainian jail on Tuesday.Mr. Dubinsky, in a statement posted on the social networking site Telegram, said that the prosecutors had “not presented one fact” to support the accusations, and that the charges were retribution for criticizing Mr. Zelensky’s government in his role as a member of Parliament. He said that he testified a year and a half ago as a witness in a treason investigation of Mr. Derkach but at the time had not been accused of any wrongdoing. Mr. Dubinsky was expelled from Mr. Zelensky’s political party, Servant of the People, in 2021 after the United States sanctioned him for meddling in the American political process. The Ukrainian intelligence agency’s statement said that Mr. Kulyk had used his position in the prosecutor general’s office to promote investigations that worked “in favor of the Kremlin,” without specifying any cases.In late 2018, Mr. Kulyk compiled a seven-page dossier asserting that Ukrainian prosecutors had evidence that “may attest to the commission of corrupt actions aimed at personal unlawful enrichment by former Vice President of the United States Joe Biden,” according to a copy leaked by a Ukrainian blogger.The dossier suggested that Mr. Biden, when he had served as vice president, had tried to quash a corruption investigation into the natural gas company, Burisma Holdings, where his son served on the board. Former colleagues of Mr. Kulyk at the prosecutor’s office confirmed he had written the document, which helped set in motion an effort by Mr. Trump’s personal lawyer, Mr. Giuliani, and other supporters to press for an investigation in Ukraine.In a phone call with Mr. Zelensky that became central to the impeachment case, Mr. Trump had asked the Ukrainian president to investigate supposed conflicts of interest by Mr. Biden when he was vice president, according to White House notes of the call. Mr. Trump denied he had linked military aid to Ukraine to the investigation of the Biden family.Allegations of corruption and ties to Russia had trailed Mr. Kulyk for years in the Ukrainian media and among anti-corruption watchdog groups before he compiled the dossier.In 2016, he was indicted in Ukraine on charges of illegal enrichment for owning apartments and cars that seemed beyond the means of his modest official salary. One car, a Toyota Land Cruiser, had been bought by the father of a military commander fighting on the Russian side in the war in eastern Ukraine. More

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      Under Pressure, U.K.’s Sunak Tries Another Cabinet Reset With a Swerve to Center

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      After more than a year as prime minister, Rishi Sunak, a Conservative, has failed to close a yawning gap in the polls. On Monday he did something new.Prime Minister Rishi Sunak of Britain fired one of his most senior and divisive ministers on Monday, in a reshuffle of his top team that unexpectedly brought a centrist predecessor, David Cameron, back into government.The departure of Suella Braverman as home secretary and the surprise return of Mr. Cameron as foreign secretary were the latest in a series of convulsions that have rocked the governing Conservative Party since the fateful Brexit referendum that Mr. Cameron called in 2016, and signaled the peril facing Mr. Sunak as he nears a general election expected next year.After 13 years in Downing Street, the Conservatives’ grip on power appears to be slipping, with the party trailing Labour by around 20 points in the polls against a challenging economic backdrop, with sluggish growth and inflation eroding living standards, and a public sector under acute strain after years of Conservative-led austerity.Mr. Sunak has tried various gambits to address his party’s unpopularity with voters, weakening environmental targets, pledging to defend motorists and promising tougher sentencing for serious criminals. None seem to have worked.At the same time, Ms. Braverman, who is seen as a rival within the party, had become increasingly emboldened as home secretary, raising her profile and appearing to prepare the ground for a leadership bid if the Conservatives lose the election as many expect.Last week she wrote an extraordinary opinion article in The Times of London, which was not authorized by Downing Street, in which she criticized the police for not seeking to ban a pro-Palestinian protest march in the capital, and described the demonstrators as “hate marchers” and “Islamists.”Protesters in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, on Vauxhall Bridge in London, on Saturday.Hollie Adams/ReutersAfter counterprotesters clashed with the police on Saturday, critics accused Ms. Braverman of inflaming tensions and encouraging far-right demonstrators onto the streets, and her position was judged untenable by Downing Street.Mr. Sunak and Ms. Braverman spoke by phone on Monday, and in the shuffle of jobs that followed her departure, she was replaced by the more emollient former foreign secretary, James Cleverly, freeing up his position for Mr. Cameron.Both men are regarded as moderates and the changes appeared to signal a shift away from the divisive politics that were championed by Ms. Braverman, whose focus on cultural issues had become a feature of Mr. Sunak’s government in recent months.Neither of the two appointments was good news for the right-wing faction of the Conservative Party where Ms. Braverman had a small but vocal group of supporters.Nor was Mr. Sunak’s decision to keep Jeremy Hunt as chancellor of the Exchequer. Mr. Hunt’s resistance to offering tax cuts has antagonized a wider group of Conservative lawmakers. He, like Mr. Cameron, campaigned against Brexit in 2016, but Mr. Hunt has made controlling inflation his priority and says that reducing taxes will have to wait.The return to the cabinet of Mr. Cameron may remind some voters of the political chaos that he triggered in 2016 when Britons ignored his recommendation and narrowly voted to leave the European Union. Mr. Sunak is the fourth Conservative leader to have become prime minister since Mr. Cameron stood aside after the referendum result, which sent shock waves around Europe.David Cameron, Britain’s new foreign secretary, departing 10 Downing Street on Monday.Andy Rain/EPA, via ShutterstockMr. Sunak restored some stability when he succeeded Liz Truss as prime minister last year, but his latest reshuffle risks reopening ideological divisions that have dogged the party in recent years. Though the salience of Brexit has faded in British politics, Mr. Cameron — who led the campaign against it — will now be partly responsible for promoting the policy around the globe.Yet, while bringing back Mr. Cameron is a political gamble, Mr. Sunak may have judged the risk worthwhile. He has limited time to win back voters, or possibly even to limit the scale of a defeat in the looming election.Ms. Braverman had lost her job as home secretary once before, under the short-lived government of Ms. Truss, but she was given it back by Mr. Sunak when he entered Downing Street. She used her position in cabinet to push hard-right policies and embraced polarizing rhetoric, describing migration as a “hurricane,” the arrival of asylum seekers on the British coast as an “invasion” and homelessness as a “lifestyle choice.”While Mr. Sunak’s language was more measured, he supported most of her ideas — in particular, her pursuit of a policy to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda. That faces a critical test on Wednesday when the country’s Supreme Court is scheduled to rule on its legality following a series of challenges.Mr. Sunak visiting an Ikea distribution center in Dartford, Kent, in June.Pool photo by Jack HillThe decision to bring back Mr. Cameron, who led the Conservatives between 2005-16, seemed at odds with Mr. Sunak’s recent claims at his party’s annual conference to be an agent of change.It also underscored a constitutional requirement of Britain’s political system that ministers hold a seat in Parliament so they can propose legislation and be held to account by fellow lawmakers. As a consequence Mr. Sunak on Monday nominated Mr. Cameron for a seat in the House of Lords, Parliament’s less powerful, unelected upper chamber.It is not the first time in the modern era that a foreign secretary has been a member of the House of Lords, rather than the House of Commons: Peter Carington, who became Lord Carrington — and as such, gained a second r in his name — filled that role between 1979-82. He resigned amid the Falklands crisis, when troops from Argentina occupied a British overseas territory in the South Atlantic in 1982, sparking a brief conflict.While the situation is not unique, Mr. Cameron’s status as a member of the House of Lords has already raised tensions among lawmakers in the House of Commons as he will normally speak not to them, but to an assembly of unelected members of the upper chamber.Lindsay Hoyle, speaker of the House of Commons, said on Monday that he was looking into ways in which the new foreign secretary could be held accountable by elected lawmakers. It was “especially important” that they should be able to scrutinize his work, “given the gravity of the current international situation,” Mr. Hoyle said in Parliament. More

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      What We Know About the Criminal Investigation into Eric Adams’s Campaign

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      Federal authorities are examining whether the mayor’s 2021 campaign accepted illegal donations, including from the Turkish government.After federal authorities raided the home of Mayor Eric Adams’s chief fund-raiser on Nov. 2, a broad criminal inquiry into the fund-raising practices of Mr. Adams’s 2021 campaign spilled into public view.Federal prosecutors and the F.B.I. are examining whether the campaign conspired with members of the Turkish government, including its consulate in New York, to receive illegal donations, according to a search warrant obtained by The New York Times.Only two years into his first term, Mr. Adams has confronted a migrant crisis and the city’s struggle to recover from the pandemic, along with intense scrutiny of chaotic and violent conditions at the Rikers Island jail complex. But from a personal and a public relations perspective, the investigation into his fund-raising poses perhaps the steepest challenge yet for the mayor, who has already raised more than $2.5 million for his re-election bid in 2025.Here’s what we know about the investigation.What are the federal authorities investigating?The full scope of the federal criminal inquiry is not yet clear, but the investigation has focused at least in part on whether Mr. Adams’s 2021 campaign conspired with the Turkish government and Turkish nationals to receive illegal donations.According to the search warrant, federal prosecutors and the F.B.I. are also examining the role of a Brooklyn building company, KSK Construction, which is owned by Turkish immigrants and which organized a fund-raising event for Mr. Adams in May 2021.The search warrant also indicated that investigators were reviewing whether anyone affiliated with the mayor’s campaign provided any legal or illegal benefits — which could range from governmental action to financial favors — to the construction company and its employees, or to Turkish officials.The search warrant was executed on Nov. 2, the day that federal agents raided the Brooklyn home of Mr. Adams’s chief fund-raiser, Brianna Suggs.Who is Brianna Suggs?Ms. Suggs was an inexperienced 23-year-old former intern when Mr. Adams’s campaign tapped her to run its fund-raising operation for his successful 2021 mayoral bid. Now 25, she has become embroiled in a sprawling federal investigation.Even before graduating from Brooklyn College in 2020, Ms. Suggs was on Mr. Adams’s staff in his previous job as Brooklyn borough president. She has a close relationship both with Mr. Adams and his top aide and confidante, Ingrid Lewis-Martin, and she impressed some who interacted with her at campaign fund-raisers as smart and easy to work with.After the election, Ms. Suggs remained an essential cog in Mr. Adams’s fund-raising machine. She has not been accused of wrongdoing.During the raid of her house in Crown Heights, federal agents seized two laptop computers, three iPhones and a manila folder labeled “Eric Adams.”How does Mr. Adams fit in?Mr. Adams has not been accused of wrongdoing. The mayor was in Washington, D.C. on the morning of the raid and had plans to speak with White House officials and members of Congress about the migrant crisis. He abruptly canceled the meetings and returned to New York.He later said he hurried back to be present for his team and to show support for Ms. Suggs.“Although I am mayor, I have not stopped being a man and a human,” he said, but added that he did not speak with his aide on the day of the raid.Have the authorities approached Mr. Adams directly?Days after Ms. Suggs’s house was raided, federal agents approached Mr. Adams after an event in Manhattan, asked his security detail to step aside and got into his SUV with him. The F.B.I. seized at least two cellphones and an iPad from the mayor, copied the devices and returned them within days, the mayor’s lawyer said.After The Times reported on the seizure, a lawyer for Mr. Adams and his campaign said in a statement that the mayor was cooperating with federal authorities and had already “proactively reported” at least one instance of improper behavior.“After learning of the federal investigation, it was discovered that an individual had recently acted improperly,” said the lawyer, Boyd Johnson. “In the spirit of transparency and cooperation, this behavior was immediately and proactively reported to investigators.”Mr. Johnson reiterated that Mr. Adams had not been accused of wrongdoing and had “immediately complied with the F.B.I.’s request and provided them with electronic devices.”Mr. Johnson did not identify the individual who was alleged to have acted improperly. He also did not detail the conduct reported to authorities or make clear whether the reported misconduct was related to the seizure of the mayor’s devices. A spokesman for Mr. Adams’s campaign said it would be inappropriate to discuss those issues because the investigation is ongoing.In his own statement, Mr. Adams said, “As a former member of law enforcement, I expect all members of my staff to follow the law and fully cooperate with any sort of investigation — and I will continue to do exactly that.”He added that he had “nothing to hide.”What does Turkey have to do with it?Federal authorities have been examining an episode involving Mr. Adams and the newly built Turkish consulate building in New York that occurred after he had won the Democratic nomination for mayor in the summer of 2021, according to three people with knowledge of the matter.The Turkish consulate general planned to open its new building in time for the start of the United Nations General Assembly that September. But the Fire Department had not signed off on its fire safety plans, which had several problems — an obstacle that threatened to derail the Turkish government’s plans.As Brooklyn borough president, Mr. Adams cultivated ties with local Turkish community members as well as Turkish government officials, who paid for part of a trip he made to Turkey in 2015. Mr. Adams has said he has visited Turkey six or seven times in all.After winning the Democratic nomination, Mr. Adams was all but guaranteed to become the next mayor of New York. He contacted then-Fire Commissioner Daniel A. Nigro, relaying the Turkish government’s desire to use the building at least on a temporary basis, the people said.The city ultimately issued a temporary certificate of occupancy for the building, near the United Nations in Midtown Manhattan.The unusual intervention paved the way for the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to preside over the grand opening of the $300 million, 35-story tower on his September 2021 visit to New York, despite the numerous flaws in its fire safety system, according to the people familiar with the matter and city records. The skyscraper reflected Turkey’s “increased power,” Mr. Erdogan said at its ribbon-cutting.In response to questions from The Times, Mr. Adams’s campaign issued a statement from the mayor.“As a borough president, part of my routine role was to notify government agencies of issues on behalf of constituents and constituencies,” Mr. Adams said. “I have not been accused of wrongdoing, and I will continue to cooperate with investigators.” More