Politics explained

The cabinet row about the putative UK-Australia free trade deal goes far behind its relatively modest macro-economic impact and right to the heart of the whole notion of what “Global Britain” is supposed to be about. On the one hand, representing the hard-pressed British consumer, we find Liz Truss, Secretary of State for international trade, who negotiated the draft deal. She wants tariff-free access to the UK for Australian goods, notably wheat, lamb and other foodstuffs, just as the EU enjoys, but cabinet colleagues are concerned about what such a deal would mean for British farmers – a double whammy, given some are already losing ground in EU markets.For Ms Truss, it is more than matter of pride and the cost of groceries. It is the first post-Brexit deal that is much more than a roll-over of a pre-existent EU deal, and with a historic partner with close ties to Britain. As Daniel, now Lord, Hannan, a prominent Eurosceptic commented,“if we can’t do a proper trade deal even with our kinsmen Down Under, we might as well throw in the towel”. He accuses “National Farmers’ Union officials, the Defra blob and a handful of Tory backwoodsmen” of trying to preserve the current subsidised regime of protection, inherited from the EU, with taxes on commodities from Australia and other revived trading partners. In his words: “If these deals with Australia and New Zealand don’t get done because of domestic opposition, that pretty much says the UK is not doing anything with global Britain. Because if we can’t do these, well, in truth, everything gets more difficult from here.” More

If nothing else David, now Lord, Frost seems a prime example of nominative determinism. In recent weeks, relations between the UK and the EU have indeed grown decidedly nippy, and the temperature continues to drop. Frosty the No Man, as some call him, has taken to the pages of the Eurosceptic press to complain about EU intransigence over trade via Northern Ireland, the short-lived threat to stop vaccines entering the province, and fishing. And, of course, there was that Lilliputian re-enactment of the Battle of Trafalgar just off Jersey. He hasn’t quite got around to asking President Macron “who do you think you are, Napoleon?”, but it cannot be far off. Appearing before the warm hearth of a Lords Select Committee, Lord Frost offered a seemingly attractive answer to the problem of the Northern Ireland Protocol, which is to just pretend it doesn’t exist. The Protocol was negotiated by Lord Frost, agreed by Boris Johnson, backed by parliament and then, to all intents and purposes, endorsed by the British people at the general election of 2019. The text, part of the Withdrawal Agreement and the overall Brexit deal, was in the public domain and provoked some discussion. Though few will have read it through (possibly including Mr Johnson), its implications were debated and well remarked upon. The Democratic Unionists, who regard it as a betrayal, voted against it and complained loudly. It was clear, as it was ever since Michel Barnier suggested it years ago, that it would mean an economic border down the Irish Sea and within the United Kingdom, and thus adding some checks to trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. In October and again at the turn of next year, further grace periods on GB-NI trade will expire, and the frictions at the border at the port of Larne – bureaucratic and political – will intensify. More

To the already long list of harmful impacts of Brexit on the UK, it appears that we may have to add the arrival of the Indian coronavirus variant in the UK.Although the link may initially seem far-fetched, there’s a roundabout way in which withdrawal from the European Union may be said to have helped usher the B1.617.2 variant into Britain.The roots of the issue lie in trade, and in Boris Johnson’s desperate need to find a substitute for the lost EU exports sacrificed on the altar of Brexit. More

The admittedly narrow victory for Edwin Poots in the Democratic Unionist Party – by 19 votes to 17 – nonetheless marks a departure from the style and direction of his predecessor, Arlene Foster, forced out of office to make way for him. The defeated candidate, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, was seen, fairly or not, as a “continuity Arlene” figure, more of a pragmatist and less of a traditionalist than Poots – though the differences between the two men, and indeed across Ulster unionism more generally, are easily and often exaggerated. Poots is a true Paisleyite, and always has been, like his father before him. He comes from a political place unlike anything else in the British Isles. At any rate, Poots now calls himself the “authentic voice of unionism”, thinly disguised code for a tilt towards some of the more muscular tendencies within the unionist movement. His victory has huge implications for Brexit too, most likely leading to some sort of renegotiation of the withdrawal agreement, and thus the wider Brexit deal. In not taking on the position of first minister – but remaining as agriculture minister – Poots seems to want to concentrate on the political and campaigning aspect of leadership, rather than the administrative and bureaucratic. After all, the elections for the Northern Irish assembly next May will be crucial, and time is short. Poots may even try somehow to bring together the various separate and sometimes bickering brands of unionism into some sort of coalition or electoral alliance; he spoke of “reaching out to other leaders in unionism”. Oddly, he might occupy the kind of role that Gerry Adams and John Hume on the Republican and nationalist side for a while – party leader semi-detached from the government of the province. More

How much trouble will Lord Christopher Geidt make for the prime minister? Of course, the fairer way to put the question is to ask how much trouble the prime minister is prepared to make for himself. The evidence on that, looking at the record thus far, is abundant. A watchdog on standards, the role Lord Geidt is now taking on, can only do so much to restrain a wayward premier. Boris Johnson can only really be sacked by his party (or the electorate), and not by any appointed official. However, a compliant sort of establishment old buffer as adviser on ministerial standards, an obedient poodle, is obviously better than some sort of snarling rottweiler. In his evidence to the Commons Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee, Lord Geidt sought to assure him that, smooth and discreet as he may be, he is not afraid to sink his teeth into the prime minister’s bottom.On the immediate priorities, these are to publish the register of minister’s external interests, and of course the investigation into who paid for the refurbishment of the prime minister’s flat. And, whoever the finding channels, whether it was consistent with the ministerial code and the seven principles of public life set out by the first standards supreme, Lord Nolan more than a quarter of a century ago – qualities not always immediately associated with the name Johnson: selflessness; integrity; objectivity; accountability; openness; honesty; leadership. More

If there is one measure in the Queen’s Speech that appears to be a more or less naked attempt at suppression of the Labour vote, it is the proposal for compulsory voter ID at polling stations. The many critics of the idea, again mostly on the opposition benches, argue it is as unnecessary as it is undemocratic. They note that in recent years there has been only one conviction for this particular type of election fraud, “personation”, as impersonation is known in this context. The Electoral Commission noted with some satisfaction in a 2014 review that there is “no evidence to suggest that there have been widespread, systematic attempts to undermine or interfere with recent elections through electoral fraud”. In the course of their discussions with election officials in town halls, the police and others, the Electoral Commission concluded this: “Electoral fraud is not widespread, and reports of specific fraud are focused on specific places in England in a few local authority areas”. Even in those cases, the type of fraud tended to be “harvesting” of postal votes by campaigners, rather than the very rare examples of personation. Outside Northern Ireland, where the old slogan was “vote early, vote often”, personation has never been an issue in UK elections. The problem of dishonesty, one might add, is more likely to lie with those who get elected rather than the electorate, given what we know about the MPs’ expenses scandal and various instances of hypocrisy and worse perpetrated by serving ministers. More

After his bruising first encounter with the voters and a botched first reshuffle, there are growing doubts inside Labour that Keir Starmer can turn the party’s prospects around.With all eyes on him, Sir Keir needs to put in a strong performance in the Commons on Tuesday when he responds to the Queen’s Speech. In fact, Sir Keir has done well in his recent weekly jousts with Boris Johnson at Prime Minister’s Questions. The big test for the former director of public prosecutions is not persuading the Commons judges, but the jury of public opinion.Sir Keir needs to explain urgently what he and his party stand for, so he will launch a policy review. But when the-then Labour leader Neil Kinnock did that in the 1980s, it took two years. Sir Keir doesn’t have that much time. More

It seems in bad taste to even contemplate such an idea, given the grievous loss of life, almost including his own, but it would seem that the Covid pandemic has – in purely political terms – served Boris Johnson well. While no doubt longer-term trends, long predating Covid-19, including the continuing aftershocks of Brexit, helped the Conservatives in the latest round of elections, it is still true that the Covid crisis was a special factor, and a lucky one for the PM.Imagine, for example, if many of the elections postponed from last year had somehow been held then, or, indeed, after Dominic Cummings affair. At that point, the government looked incompetent, hypocritical and worse, and Keir Starmer was starting to move steadily ahead of the prime minister in the polls. At least in some areas, there would have been an immediate protest vote, a gesture of no confidence in the government. Now, though, Johnson can take full advantage of the vaccine rollout, the relaxation of lockdown and a general feel-better factor.Second, the crisis allowed him to dismiss Labour attacks on “sleaze” and the SNP campaign for a second independence referendum as somehow trivial or irrelevant to the big task of dealing with Covid and returning life to normal. Again, this is not an argument that could have made by Tories with so much confidence last year, when they seemed to be anything but on top of things. More