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      Por qué la derecha cree que Trump va ganando en las encuestas

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      Los sondeos sesgados y los mercados de apuestas anónimas están aumentando las expectativas de los republicanos. Donald Trump podría utilizar esto para impugnar el resultado.El torrente de encuestas empezó a llegar hace unas semanas, una tras otra, la mayoría mostrando una victoria de Donald Trump.Destacaban entre los cientos de otras encuestas que indicaban un empate en las elecciones presidenciales. Pero tenían algo en común: habían sido encargadas por grupos de derecha con un gran interés en promover la fuerza republicana.Estas encuestas han tenido un impacto marginal, si es que han tenido alguno, en los promedios de las encuestas, que o bien no incluyen las encuestas partidistas o les dan poca importancia. Sin embargo, hay quien sostiene que el verdadero propósito de las encuestas partidistas, junto con otras métricas que fijan expectativas, como los mercados de apuestas políticas, está dirigido a un objetivo totalmente distinto: construir una narrativa de impulso imparable para Trump.Las encuestas partidistas parecen centradas en elevar el entusiasmo republicano antes de las elecciones y —lo que quizá sea más importante— en cimentar la idea de que la única forma de que Trump pierda frente a la vicepresidenta Kamala Harris es que las elecciones estén amañadas. Las encuestas que prometen una victoria republicana, según esta teoría, podrían considerarse evidencias de fraude si esa victoria no se produce.“Está claro que los republicanos están colocando estratégicamente las encuestas en el entorno informativo para intentar crear la percepción de que Trump es más fuerte”, dijo Joshua Dyck, quien dirige el Centro de Opinión Pública de la Universidad de Massachusetts en Lowell. “Su incentivo no es necesariamente acertar la respuesta”.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Corporate America Braces for Trump 2.0

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      The race for the White House is deadlocked, but business leaders aren’t taking chances, reaching out to the former president to rebuild relations.Are business leaders already banking on a second Trump presidency?Hiroko Masuike/The New York TimesDo C.E.O.s think Donald Trump will win? As the presidential race nears its end next week, the most notable public sound from many C.E.O.s and businesses on the election has been silence — and Donald Trump’s camp is increasingly interpreting that as a sign that corporate America may be preparing for him to win.New reports show that top business leaders, including Silicon Valley heavyweights, have reached out to the former president, seemingly looking to rebuild relations and protect their businesses if Trump defeats Vice President Kamala Harris.Business leaders are privately discussing how to prepare for a Trump return. Attendees at a gathering last week of the Business Council, an invite-only association of C.E.O.s, talked about steps to take in case Trump goes after perceived enemies, according to The Washington Post.“I’ve told C.E.O.s to engage as fast as possible because the clock is ticking,” an unidentified Trump adviser told The Post. “If you’re somebody who has endorsed Harris, and we’ve never heard from you at any point until after the election, you’ve got an uphill battle.”Big Tech leaders are among those trying to reboot relations. In recent weeks, Trump has said that he has spoken with Tim Cook of Apple and Sundar Pichai of Alphabet. He has also heard from Mark Zuckerberg, and CNN adds that Andy Jassy of Amazon has reached out.The reason for such outreach is clear, Trump associates told CNN: Trump has gone after many of their companies and re-establishing relations is at the least a hedge in case he wins next week. (An unidentified source told CNN that Jassy’s call, made at the company’s request, was a general exchange of pleasantries.)We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Joseph J. Ellis: The Ideals of the Founders Are on the Ballot

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      The jury remains out on the verdict of the American electorate. While historians are virtually omniscient at predicting the past, we are not much better than most observers at predicting the future.Two predictions are, however, reasonably obvious: first, that Donald Trump will struggle to accept the verdict if he loses; second, that Kamala Harris will almost certainly win the popular vote, but could lose the election because of that strange American contraption called the Electoral College.More broadly, a longstanding American dilemma is on the ballot. Are a majority of American voters prepared to accept and even embrace the fact that we are a multiracial society — in effect, that Martin Luther King Jr.’s dream has become reality? Ms. Harris’s supporters are betting that we are. Mr. Trump’s supporters are betting that we are not.The founding fathers did not think about the popular vote and electoral college vote the way we do. Yet that disjunction looms over this election.There is also a gender dimension to our American dilemma that further complicates the outcome. Do we fully and finally believe the last six words of the Pledge of Allegiance to the flag, “with liberty and justice for all”? Even more than Barack Obama, Ms. Harris puts that question to the acid test. And polls will not provide a reliable answer, because many white and Black men will not reveal their deeper motives, even to themselves. Namely, that they cannot vote for a woman.As we prepare to celebrate the 250th anniversary of American independence, the idea of human equality pronounced at the American founding will be front and center. We will be bombarded with Jefferson’s lyrical tribute to human equality. But we will also hear about the reality of racial and gender prejudice embraced by several prominent founders and the vast majority of American citizenry over which they presided.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More