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      Trump’s Indictment Puts Us Into Uncharted Waters

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      Former President Donald Trump finds himself once again facing indictment, this time in federal court, after an investigation into his handling of classified documents after departing the White House. The prospect of putting Mr. Trump on trial for serious crimes and sending him to prison has many Americans feeling giddy: Finally, justice might be done.Such reactions are understandable, but news of Mr. Trump’s legal jeopardy shouldn’t blind us to the political jeopardy that now confronts the nation.Other countries have tried, convicted and imprisoned former presidents, but the United States never has. We’ve been fortunate in this regard. Legal processes establish and maintain legitimacy by the appearance of impartiality. But when a public figure associated with one political party is prosecuted by officials associated with another, such appearances can become impossible to uphold. This is especially so when the public figure is a populist adept at exposing (and accusing opponents of concealing) base and self-interested motives behind righteous rhetoric about the rule of law.This corrosive dynamic is even more pronounced when the public figure is not only a former official but also a potential future one. Mr. Trump is running for president against President Biden, whose attorney general, Merrick Garland, appointed the special counsel Jack Smith. That’s a scenario seemingly tailor-made to confirm and vindicate Mr. Trump’s longstanding claim that he’s the victim of a politically motivated witch hunt.We don’t have to speculate about the immediate political consequences. Public-spirited and law-abiding Americans believe the appropriate response of voters to news that their favored candidate faces indictment is to turn on him and run the other way. But the populist politics that are Mr. Trump’s specialty operate according to an inverse logic. Before the end of March, polls of the Republican primary electorate showed him hovering in the mid-40s and leading his nearest rival, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, by about 15 points. By the end of May, Mr. Trump was in the mid-50s and leading Mr. DeSantis by roughly 30 points.What happened at the end of March to elevate Mr. Trump’s standing? He was indicted by the Manhattan district attorney, Alvin Bragg.Hard as it may be for some of us to believe, Mr. Trump’s indictment by the special counsel on federal charges could well boost him further, placing him in a position of even greater advantage against his rivals for the Republican nomination.That possibility typically prompts one of two responses from Democrats: one narrowly political (not to say cynical), the other more high-minded and focused on the law and public morals.The political response sees Mr. Trump benefiting in the G.O.P. primaries from indictment as a good thing, because the former president appears to be the most beatable alternative for Mr. Biden to face in the fall of 2024, and that will be even truer when Mr. Trump is embroiled in a federal trial on major charges and facing possible prison time. What’s good for Mr. Trump in the primaries, in other words, will be terrible for him in the general election.This may well be true, but not necessarily. Anyone who becomes one of two major party nominees has a shot at winning the White House. That’s especially true in our era of stark partisan polarization and intense negative partisanship. That Mr. Trump would be running against an opponent with persistently low approval ratings who will be 81 years old on Election Day 2024 only makes a Biden-Trump matchup more uncertain.The other response dismisses such concerns entirely. Let justice be done, we are told, though the heavens fall. To weigh political considerations in determining whether someone, even a former and possibly future president, should be prosecuted is to supposedly commit a grievous offense against the rule of law, because no one is above the law and the consequences of holding him or her to account shouldn’t matter.This is a powerful argument and one seemingly vindicated in the case of Mr. Trump, who has now managed to get himself ensnared in legal trouble in multiple jurisdictions dealing with a wide range of possible crimes. At a certain point, the logic of the law applying to everyone equally demands that the process be seen through.But that doesn’t mean we should deny the gravity of the potential consequences. Mr. Trump is not a standard-issue politician who happened to run afoul of corruption statutes. He’s a man who rose once to the presidency and seeks to return to it by mobilizing and enhancing mass suspicion of public institutions and officials. That’s why one of the first things he said after announcing the indictment on Thursday night was to proclaim it was “a DARK DAY for the United States of America.” It’s why die-hard supporters like Representative Jim Jordan of Ohio tweeted: “Sad day for America. God Bless President Trump.” It’s likely that tens of millions of our fellow citizens agree with the sentiment.To most Americans, such a reaction to news of Mr. Trump’s indictment seems unimaginable. But it’s clearly something sincerely felt by many. Our country has a history of lionizing outlaws — folk heroes who defy authority, especially when they claim to speak for, channel and champion the grievances and resentments of ordinary people against those in positions of power and influence. From the beginning of his 2016 campaign, Mr. Trump has portrayed himself as just such a man of defiance, eager to serve as a tribune for those who feel left behind, denigrated and humiliated by members of the establishment.That’s why the more concerted opposition Mr. Trump has faced from law enforcement, the mainstream media, Congress and other prominent people in our country and culture, the more popular he has become within his party. Efforts to rein him in — to defeat him politically and legally — have often backfired, vindicating him and his struggle in the eyes of his supporters.There’s no reason at all to suppose the prospect of Mr. Trump’s ending up a convicted criminal would disrupt this dynamic. On the contrary, it’s far more likely to transform him into something resembling a martyr to millions of Americans — and in the process to wrest those devoted supporters free from attachment to the rule of law altogether.How politically radical could the base of the Republican Party become over the 17 months between now and the 2024 presidential election? There’s really no way to know. We are heading into uncharted and turbulent waters.Damon Linker, a former columnist at The Week, writes the newsletter Notes From the Middleground and is a senior fellow in the Open Society Project at the Niskanen Center.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      This Is Not the Time for a Third Presidential Candidate

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      I’ve long been a fan of No Labels, the organization that works to reduce political polarization and Washington gridlock. I spoke at its launch event in 2010. I’ve admired the Problem Solvers Caucus, a No Labels-inspired effort that brings Republicans and Democrats in Congress together to craft bipartisan legislation. Last September, when No Labels wanted to go public with its latest project, I was happy to use my column to introduce it to people.That project is a $70 million effort to secure ballot access for a potential third presidential candidate in 2024. America needs an insurance policy, the folks at No Labels argued. If the two major parties continue to go off to the extremes, then voters should have a more moderate option, a unity ticket of Republicans and Democrats who are willing to compromise to get things done.In the nine months since my column appeared, No Labels analysts have conducted polling that they believe shows that their as yet to be selected third candidate could actually win the White House. Today, they argue, the electorate is roughly evenly split among those who lean Democratic, those who lean Republican and the unaffiliated. There’s clearly an opening for a third option.Furthermore, voters are repelled by the thought of a Joe Biden-Donald Trump rematch. Large majorities don’t want either man to run. Fifty-nine percent of voters surveyed in that No Labels analysis said if that happened, they would consider voting for a third moderate candidate. If the No Labels candidate won just 61 percent of this disaffected group and the remainder was split evenly between two other candidates, he or she would capture a plurality of the electorate and could win the presidency.This is a unique historic opportunity, the No Labels folks conclude, to repair politics and end the gridlock on issues like guns, abortion and immigration.Others disagree. Official Washington, especially Democratic Washington, has come down on No Labels like a ton of bricks.Moderates are now at war with one another. The centrist Democratic group Third Way produced a blistering research memo arguing that a third presidential candidate would have no chance of winning. It would siphon off votes from Democrats and hand the White House back to Trump.The analysts at Third Way point out that no third-party candidate has won any state’s electoral votes since 1968. There is no viable path to 270 electoral votes. The No Labels candidate would have to carry not just swing states, but also deep-blue states like Maryland and Massachusetts and deep-red ones like Utah and Montana, which is not going to happen.The simple fact is, the Third Way analysts argue, Democrats need moderates more than Republicans do. Because there are more conservatives than progressives in America, Democrats need to get 60 percent of the self-identified moderate votes to win nationally, they say, while Republicans need to get only 40 percent. You suck those voters away to a third party and you’ve just handed the keys to the Oval Office to Trump.Personally, I have a lot of sympathy for the No Labels effort. I’ve longed for a party that would revive the moderate strain in American politics exemplified by Alexander Hamilton, Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, John McCain and contemporaries like Michael Bloomberg.If the 2024 election was Bernie Sanders versus Ron DeSantis, I’d support the No Labels effort 1,000 percent. An independent candidate would bring this moderate tradition into the 21st century, and if Sanders or DeSantis ended up winning, his agenda might not be my cup of tea, but I could live with him.Donald Trump changes the equation. A second Trump presidency represents an unprecedented threat to our democracy. In my view, our sole focus should be to defeat Trump. This is not the time to be running risky experiments, the outcomes of which none of us can foresee.Furthermore, I’m persuaded that a third candidate would indeed hurt Biden more. Trump voters are solidly behind him, while Biden voters are wobbly. Then there’s the group of voters called the “double-haters.” They dislike both candidates. The Wall Street Journal recently quoted Tony Fabrizio, a Republican pollster, who said Biden was up by 39 points with such voters.Finally, if America wants a relative moderate who is eager to do bipartisan deal making, it already has one. In fact, he’s already sitting in the Oval Office. Joe Biden doesn’t get sufficient credit, but he has negotiated a bunch of deals on infrastructure, the CHIPS Act, guns, the debt limit. As long as Biden is running, we don’t need a third option.I’m not saying my friends at No Labels have chosen the wrong strategy. I’m saying this is not the right election to carry out their strategy. I wouldn’t blame them for keeping their options open for a few more months (something unexpected might happen). But if it’s still a 50-50 Biden-Trump race in the fall, I hope they postpone their efforts for four years. With Trump on the scene, the potential rewards don’t justify the risks.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Chris Christie Is Running for the Nomination of a Party That Doesn’t Exist

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      GOFFSTOWN, N.H. — After watching Chris Christie lambaste Donald Trump at the standing-room-only town hall where he announced his presidential campaign, Catherine Johnson, who grew up in Republican political circles, was delighted. “It was vintage Chris Christie and I loved it,” said Johnson, a 63-year-old retiree. “I believe I know where he stands on the issues. And I love where he stands on Donald Trump.”Johnson, whose father, William Johnson, was once the head of New Hampshire’s Republican Party, supported Chris Christie, the former New Jersey governor, when he ran for president in 2016. She’s planning to volunteer for him this time around. “Governor Christie still reminds me of what a moderate Republican is,” she said. She was happy that he hadn’t spoken about banning books or critical race theory; at the packed event, which went on for more than two hours, culture war issues barely came up. “Honestly, we don’t care about that stuff very much,” Johnson said. “I know I don’t.”But to vote for Christie in the primary, Johnson would have to change her voter registration, because during Trump’s presidency she became a Democrat. And though she’s not thrilled with Joe Biden — “It’s hard for me to watch him give a speech because he’s so prone to gaffes,” she said — she’s not even sure she’d vote for Christie in the general, because she fears a Republican president would empower the “crazy” Republicans in the House and the Senate. “If Chris Christie is the nominee,” she said, “I’m going to have to think really hard about my vote.”Christie’s problem is that he’s running for the nomination of a party that no longer exists. In a G.O.P. where people like Johnson still felt at home, his pitch, a wholesale rejection not just of Trump but also of Trumpism, would make sense. But that Republican Party is dead; by backing Trump in 2016, Christie helped kill it. So it’s hard to figure out what he thinks he’s up to, even if his kamikaze attacks on the ex-president — “a lonely, self-consumed, self-serving mirror hog” — are fun to watch.The ex-governor certainly has fans. At his launch event here, you could almost see how he’d convinced himself that he might have a chance. A standing ovation will do that for you. I’d expected at least a few wary conservatives, if not outright MAGA trolls, in the crowd. But while there were Trump supporters protesting outside, the auditorium at Saint Anselm College was full of people hungry for Christie’s message. I asked David Dickey, who’d voted for Trump twice but turned against him after Jan. 6, what he’d do if Trump was the nominee again. He’d never vote for Biden, he said. Instead, he just wouldn’t cast a ballot.Mark Peterson for The New York TimesMark Peterson for The New York TimesThere aren’t nearly enough people like this, however, for Christie to win the Republican nomination. One March poll found that while only 40 percent of registered voters view Trump favorably, 81 percent of Republicans do. Christie seems to believe he can change these numbers. He argued, in fact, that there are no such things as “Trump voters,” only people who voted for Trump. “I don’t think he owns them,” he said during the town hall. “He thinks he owns them.” After 2016, Christie said, Trump also thought he owned the general electorate. “And what did they show him in 2020? Not so fast.”But the general electorate changed only around the edges between 2016 and 2020. Whereas to have a chance, Christie would have to catalyze a moral and ideological revolution inside his party.His central insight, that the only way to beat Trump is by taking him on directly, is almost certainly correct. It was a pleasure to watch him mock his passive-aggressive competitors with their coded criticisms of the ex-president. He intoned, with mock earnestness, “We need a leader who looks forward, not backwards.” The crowd burst out laughing. Then, as if solving a puzzle, he exclaimed: “Oooh! You’re talking about the way he still thinks the 2020 election was stolen! And you won’t say it wasn’t stolen!”It was even more amusing listening to Christie tear into Trump. He called him a “bitter, angry man who wants power back for himself” and told a story about Trump urging him, when he was governor, to declare bankruptcy for the State of New Jersey. He imitated Trump like Alec Baldwin would on “Saturday Night Live.” He even went after Ivanka Trump and her husband, Jared Kushner — whose father, you’ll remember, he helped put in prison when he was a prosecutor — for the $2 billion investment Kushner secured from a fund led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia. “The grift from this family is breathtaking,” he said.But my enjoyment of his newfound Resistance shtick doesn’t bode well for Christie. The people he needs to win over are not liberal New York Times columnists, but voters who hate liberal New York Times columnists. The trick, for a Republican, is going to be painting Trump as a weak loser who will sabotage right-wing priorities. At times Christie tried to do this, as when he criticized Trump for his failure to build the border wall and repeal the Affordable Care Act. But many of his criticisms were decidedly centrist. He attacked Trump for “idolizing” Vladimir Putin and trying to extort President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, admitting, in an offhand line, that Biden deserves admiration for uniting Europe against Russian aggression. He praised John McCain, expounded on the necessity of compromise and agreed with one questioner that Trump had “traumatized” the country.At one point, in response to a question about drug prices, Christie spoke about the need to protect pharmaceutical innovation, lauding Pfizer’s investment in mRNA vaccines. I appreciate that he won’t pander to his party’s Covid skepticism, but I also can’t imagine this going over well with the Republican electorate. Later, in response to a question about “reproductive justice” from a young woman who appeared to be pro-choice, he said the matter should be entirely left up to the states, which should be free to enact laws as permissive or as restrictive as they wish. That might be a good stance for a general election, but it is sure to alienate influential right-wing activists.So what is Christie up to? One theory is that he wants to redeem himself after his humiliating embrace of Trump by filleting him on the debate stage, much as he did to Marco Rubio in 2016. But to qualify for the debates, Republican candidates must have at least 1 percent support across several polls, have at least 40,000 individual donors from 20 states or territories and pledge to support whoever wins the Republican nomination. Even if Christie clears the polling and donor thresholds, he’s already sworn never to back Trump again, and his entire campaign is premised on Trump’s total unfitness.Maybe Alan Steinberg, a former Bush administration official and a columnist for Insider NJ, was on to something when he speculated that Christie might eventually run as an independent. “Given the virtual impossibility of Christie winning the 2024 G.O.P. presidential nomination, would he be willing to accept the role of the presidential candidate of a 2024 center-right independent party?” Steinberg wrote in April. After all, if Trump is ultimately nominated to face Biden, a contest most Americans do not want to reprise, the clamor for third-party candidates is likely to be intense.Or maybe Christie really thinks the force of his personality is so great that he can single-handedly turn his party around. “I’ve seen some of the press coverage of me getting ready to run, and there’s this thing like, ‘Christie doesn’t really care about winning, all he cares about doing is destroying Trump,’” he said. “Now let me ask you something. How are those two things mutually exclusive?” The crowd burst into applause. A test for Christie will be whether he can sustain his bluster in front of an audience that doesn’t start out on his side.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Mike Pence Hasn’t Grown Less Conservative, but Republicans Have Shifted

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      The polls say the former vice president, who announced his 2024 candidacy in a video on Wednesday, has little chance. But he is driven by his faith.Mike Pence is the most conservative candidate competing for the presidency. The former vice president wants abortion banned from the point of conception. He’s the only major candidate calling for cuts to Social Security and Medicare. And he has the most hawkish foreign policy, especially on confronting Russia.Being the most conservative used to matter in Republican presidential primaries.Not anymore.The president Mr. Pence served under, Donald J. Trump, transformed the G.O.P. electorate, making the path to a Pence presidency visible only to the truest of true believers. Mr. Pence has not really changed all that much since he was governor of Indiana less than a decade ago, but his party has. It’s the same Mike Pence but a different G.O.P., and it’s a different G.O.P. because of his former boss.The Republican Party’s intense focus on character and morality during the Bill Clinton years has been replaced by a different credo — articulated by a former Justice Department official, Jeffrey B. Clark, during a recent Twitter squabble over Mr. Trump’s fitness for office.“We’re not a congregation voting for a new pastor,” argued Mr. Clark, the one senior Justice Department official who tried to help Mr. Trump overturn the 2020 election. “We’re voting for a leader of the nation.”By this way of thinking, it doesn’t matter that Mr. Pence has been married only once and is so determined to honor his vows that he doesn’t allow himself to dine alone with a woman who is not his wife. Nor does it matter how many affairs Mr. Trump has had or whether he paid hush money to a porn star. Mr. Trump silences all of that, in a way, with one blunt social media post: “I was able to kill Roe v. Wade.”Mr. Pence, who announced his candidacy in a video early Wednesday, hours before a planned rally in a Des Moines suburb, is given little chance by anybody outside of his core team. Republican pollsters and strategists have written him off. Faced with Mr. Pence’s situation — being both dominated and burdened by Mr. Trump — most politicians would have concluded, after reviewing polls and focus groups, that there was no “theory of the case” for him to win the nomination.But Mr. Pence appears to have no use for statistical analysis.Mr. Pence in Des Moines on Saturday. Even in heavily evangelical Iowa, he polls around just 5 percent.Jordan Gale for The New York Times“Our country’s in a lot of trouble,” Mr. Pence says in his nearly three-minute-long announcement video, accusing “President Joe Biden and the radical left” of weakening America “at home and abroad.”Citing “runaway inflation,” a looming recession, a southern border “under siege,” unchecked “enemies of freedom” in Russia and China “on the march,” and what he calls an unprecedented assault on “timeless American values,” he promises to deliver what he says the nation sorely needs.“We’re better than this,” Mr. Pence says. “We can turn this country around. But different times call for different leadership. Today our party and our country need a leader that’ll appeal, as Lincoln said, to the better angels of our nature.”Whereas some Republican politicians use God as a talking point and have little acquaintance with the Bible, Mr. Pence makes every decision through the filter of Scripture. When he says he has prayed on a decision, he means it, and that includes running for president. Throughout his political career, according to people who have worked for him, Mr. Pence has gathered around his staff and his family in frequent prayer. If his theory of the case in this race seems to rely more on faith than data — that’s because it does.Mr. Pence served as Mr. Trump’s yes-man for three years and 11 months. In that final month, Mr. Pence refused to follow a presidential order that was plainly unconstitutional: to single-handedly overturn the 2020 election. His loyalty to the Constitution was rewarded with people in a pro-Trump mob chanting “Hang Mike Pence” as they stormed the Capitol, while Mr. Pence and his family rushed to a barely secure room.Instead of punishing Mr. Trump for how he treated Mr. Pence, Republican voters have made him their front-runner. More than 50 percent of Republicans support the former president in national polls. Mr. Pence draws around 4 percent. Even in heavily evangelical Iowa, where Mr. Pence is staking his candidacy, he polls around 5 percent.Mr. Pence and Nancy Pelosi, then the House speaker, began certifying the results of the 2020 election on Jan. 6, 2021, before a pro-Trump mob attacked the Capitol, chanting “Hang Mike Pence.”Erin Schaff/The New York TimesMr. Pence has no trouble explaining his policy positions. He will run for president as a national security hawk, a staunch social conservative, a free-trader and a fiscal conservative. Nobody who knows him well doubts his sincerity on any of these issues. He may be running the least poll-tested campaign in the Republican field.The problem is that the Mike Pence known to most Republicans is a man whose job for four years was to cheer Mr. Trump through policies and actions that often contradicted his professed principles. If Mr. Pence, in a moment of introspection, wonders why the party he has long aspired to lead no longer seems interested in being led by someone like him, he may shoulder some portion of the blame himself.The Trump-Pence administration added around $8 trillion to the national debt. So much for fiscal conservatism. The Trump-Pence administration had a trade policy that, for the most part, delighted protectionist Democrats. So much for free trade. And while Mr. Trump spent his first three years in office largely listening to his more conventional national security advisers, in his final year he laid the groundwork for a withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan that Mr. Pence did not support.Mr. Trump’s current articulation of his “America First” foreign policy — which involves dropping U.S. support for Ukraine and musing about giving away chunks of Ukrainian land to the Russians — could not be further removed from Mr. Pence’s Reaganite vision of America defending freedom across the globe.But it’s not just Mr. Pence’s anti-populist policies that hobble him. It’s that Republican voters have sharply different expectations of their leaders than they did during Mr. Pence’s political rise as a member of Congress and then governor of Indiana.For the past seven years, Mr. Trump has trained Republican voters to value a different set of virtues in their candidates. He has trained them to value Republicans who fight hard and dirty, using whatever tactics are necessary to vanquish their opponents. He has also trained them to avert their gazes from behaviors that were once considered disqualifying.Mr. Pence averted his gaze for four years as Mr. Trump’s vice president, sticking with him through various controversies.Al Drago for The New York TimesFor four years, Mr. Pence, too, averted his gaze. He stuck with Mr. Trump through numerous controversies including the leak of the “Access Hollywood” tape, in which Mr. Trump boasted about grabbing women’s genitalia. He vouched for Mr. Trump’s character with skeptical evangelicals with whom Mr. Trump ultimately forged his own relationship.When Mr. Trump, as president, showered praise on the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, his vice president, bound by loyalty, stayed silent. Yet recently on the campaign trail, after Mr. Trump had congratulated Mr. Kim for his country’s readmission to the World Health Organization’s executive board, Mr. Pence scolded his former boss for “praising the dictator in North Korea.”Mr. Pence may finally feel liberated to tell voters what he really thinks about Mr. Trump. His problem is that most Republicans don’t want to hear it. More

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      Los retos de la edad de Joe Biden y su reelección

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      En algún momento del invierno pasado, durante un viaje a Asia, despertaron al presidente Joe Biden a las 3 a. m. para decirle que un misil había impactado en Polonia, lo que desató el temor de que Rusia hubiera extendido la guerra de Ucrania a un aliado de la OTAN. En cuestión de horas, en medio de la noche, Biden consultó a sus altos asesores, llamó al presidente de Polonia y al secretario general de la OTAN y reunió a otros líderes mundiales para enfrentar la crisis.Y luego, hace unas cuantas semanas, cuando Biden era el anfitrión de algunos niños en el Día de Llevar a Tu Hijo al Trabajo, se confundió cuando intentó enumerar a sus nietos. “Pues déjenme ver. Tengo uno en Nueva York, dos en Filadelfia, ¿o tres? No, tres porque tengo una nieta que es… ya no sé. Me están confundiendo”. También se quedó en blanco cuando le preguntaron cuál era el último país que había visitado y el nombre de su película favorita.Estos dos Joe Biden coexisten en el mismo presidente octogenario: sagaz e inteligente en momentos cruciales como resultado de décadas de experiencia, capaz de estar a la altura de las circunstancias para hacer frente a un mundo peligroso, incluso en la quietud de la noche. Pero un poco más lento, más blando, con más dificultades auditivas, más vacilante en su andar y un poco más proclive a fallas ocasionales de memoria que pueden resultar habituales para alguien que ha llegado a la novena década de su vida o que tiene algún progenitor que haya alcanzado esa edad.La difícil realidad del presidente más viejo de Estados Unidos fue resumida el jueves cuando el Congreso aprobó un acuerdo bipartidista que él negoció para evitar un incumplimiento del pago de la deuda nacional. Incluso el presidente de la Cámara Baja, el representante republicano por California, Kevin McCarthy, declaró que Biden había sido “muy profesional, inteligente y duro” durante las conversaciones. Pero justo antes de que se pusieran en marcha las votaciones, Biden se tropezó con un saco de arena en la graduación de la Academia de la Fuerza Aérea y cayó al suelo. El video se hizo viral, sus partidarios se abochornaron y sus detractores arremetieron.Cualquiera puede tropezarse a cualquier edad, pero es inevitable que si le ocurre a un presidente de 80 años haya preguntas incómodas. Si fuera cualquier otra persona, tal vez no serían notorios los signos de la edad, pero Biden es el jefe del país más poderoso del mundo y se acaba de lanzar a una campaña para que los electores lo mantengan en la Casa Blanca hasta que cumpla 86 años, lo cual atrae una mayor atención a un problema que, según las encuestas, preocupa a la mayoría de los estadounidenses y es motivo de gran zozobra entre los líderes del partido.“¿Ustedes dicen que soy viejo?”, dijo en una cena de la Asociación de Corresponsales de la Casa Blanca en abril. “Yo digo que soy sabio”.Yuri Gripas para The New York TimesLa imagen que surge de las entrevistas realizadas durante varios meses con decenas de funcionarios y exfuncionarios, y con otras personas que han pasado algún tiempo con el presidente, es una mezcla entre la caricatura de un anciano aturullado y fácilmente manipulable promovida por los republicanos y la imagen que difunde su personal de un presidente con gafas de aviador que dirige la escena mundial y gobierna con brío.Es la de un hombre disminuido por la edad de maneras más marcadas que solo el encanecimiento del cabello que ha sido común entre los presidentes más recientes durante sus mandatos. En ocasiones, Biden confunde las palabras y parece mayor que antes por su modo de andar torpe y su voz débil.No obstante, las personas que habitualmente tratan con él, incluso algunos de sus adversarios, afirman que sigue siendo sagaz e imponente en las reuniones privadas. Los diplomáticos comparten anécdotas de viajes a sitios como Ucrania, Japón, Egipto, Camboya e Indonesia, en donde casi siempre tiene más resistencia que sus colegas más jóvenes. Los legisladores demócratas destacan una larga lista de logros como prueba de que sigue haciendo bien su trabajo.Sus amigos señalan que sus desaciertos verbales no son nada nuevo; toda su vida ha tenido problemas de tartamudez y, en sus propias palabras, era una “máquina de desatinos”, mucho antes de tener acceso a las prestaciones de jubilación. Sus asesores afirman que su criterio sigue siendo tan bueno como siempre. Así que muchos usan la frase “afilado como una hacha” para describirlo, lo que se ha convertido en una especie de mantra.Biden dice que la edad es un tema válido, pero sostiene que su longevidad es una ventaja y no una desventaja. “¿Ustedes dicen que soy anciano?”, dijo en una cena de la Asociación de Corresponsales de la Casa Blanca en abril. “Yo digo que soy sabio”.Sin embargo, pocas personas dejan de notar los cambios en una de las personas más públicas de la nación. Hace una decena de años, cuando era vicepresidente, Biden se enzarzaba cada verano en enérgicas batallas con pistolas de agua con los hijos de sus colaboradores y los periodistas. Más de una década después, cruzó con paso rígido el puente Edmund Pettus de Selma, Alabama, para conmemorar el aniversario del Domingo Sangriento.Las encuestas indican que a los estadounidenses, incluso a los demócratas, les preocupa muchísimo la edad de Biden. En un grupo de debate reciente organizado por The New York Times, varios electores que apoyaron a Biden en 2020 manifestaron su preocupación y uno afirmó: “He visto a veces esa mirada ausente cuando está pronunciando algún discurso o dirigiéndose a la multitud. Parece como si perdiera la línea de pensamiento”.En los círculos demócratas, el malestar por la edad de Biden es generalizado. Un destacado demócrata de Wall Street, que como otras personas habló con la condición de mantener su anonimato para no ofender a la Casa Blanca, señaló que entre los donantes del partido no se hablaba de otra cosa. En una pequeña cena celebrada a principios de este año con antiguos senadores y gobernadores demócratas, todos de la generación de Biden, los asistentes coincidieron en que era demasiado mayor para volver a postularse. Los líderes locales llaman a menudo a la Casa Blanca para preguntar por su salud.En privado, los funcionarios reconocen que hacen lo que consideran que son ajustes razonables para no exigirle mucho físicamente a un presidente que envejece. Su personal programa la mayor parte de sus presentaciones en público entre el mediodía y las 4 p. m. y lo deja descansar los fines de semana tanto como es posible. Jennifer O’Malley Dillon, jefa adjunta de gabinete de la Casa Blanca, insistió en que su edad no ha obligado a modificar su agenda. “Nada más allá de lo que se hace para cualquier presidente, independientemente de su edad”, dijo.Un análisis de los horarios de Biden con base en la información recabada por Axios y ampliada por el Times reveló que el mandatario tiene un ritmo de trabajo matutino parecido al del presidente para el que trabajó, Barack Obama, quien tampoco tenía muchos eventos públicos antes de las 10 a. m.: solo el 4 por ciento durante su último año en el cargo en comparación con el 5 por ciento en los primeros dos años y medio de Biden en la presidencia. Pero la verdadera diferencia se ve en la noche. Obama tenía casi el doble de probabilidades que Biden de acudir a eventos públicos después de las 6 p. m., el 17 contra el 9 por ciento.Los asesores evitan exponer a Biden a entrevistas con los medios cuando es posible que cometa algún error que lo perjudique políticamente. Biden solo ha brindado una cuarta parte de las entrevistas que dio Donald Trump en el mismo periodo y una quinta parte de las que concedió Obama, pero ninguna a los reporteros de algún diario importante. Biden no ha concedido entrevistas al departamento de noticias del Times, a diferencia de todos los presidentes desde por lo menos Franklin D. Roosevelt además de Dwight D. Eisenhower. Y en los últimos 100 años, solo Ronald Reagan y Richard Nixon dieron tan pocas conferencias de prensa.A diferencia de otros presidentes, los funcionarios de la Casa Blanca no han autorizado al médico de Biden para que conceda entrevistas. En febrero, Kevin C. O’Connor, el médico de la Casa Blanca, emitió una carta de cinco páginas en la que afirmaba que el mandatario está “apto para el servicio y ejecuta plenamente todas sus responsabilidades sin exenciones ni adaptaciones”.Pero también escribió que la tendencia del presidente a caminar rígido es “de hecho el resultado de cambios degenerativos (‘desgaste’)” en su columna vertebral, y en parte el resultado de “isquiotibiales y pantorrillas más tensas”. La carta decía que “no había hallazgos que fueran consistentes con” un trastorno neurológico como un derrame cerebral, esclerosis múltiple o enfermedad de Parkinson. Toma medicamentos para la fibrilación auricular, el colesterol, el ardor de estómago, el asma y las alergias.Al igual que muchas personas de su edad, Biden repite las frases y vuelve a contar una y otra vez las mismas anécdotas viejas que a menudo son de veracidad cuestionable. También puede ser estrafalario; cuando lo visitan los niños, es posible que saque al azar un libro de William Butler Yeats de su escritorio y comience a leerles poesía irlandesa.Al mismo tiempo, es elegante y está en forma, hace ejercicio cinco veces a la semana y no bebe. En algunas ocasiones, ha mostrado una resistencia asombrosa, como cuando fue a Polonia y luego emprendió un viaje de nueve horas en tren para hacer una visita secreta a Kiev, la capital de Ucrania, donde estuvo varias horas en tierra. Luego soportó otras nueve horas en tren y tomó un vuelo a Varsovia. Un análisis de su horario proporcionado por sus colaboradores muestra que en los primeros meses de su tercer año en la presidencia viajó un poco más que Obama en ese mismo periodo.El viaje de Biden a Kiev, en el que se reunió con el presidente de Ucrania, Volodímir Zelenski, requirió una agenda ininterrumpida.Daniel Berehulak/The New York Times“¿Que divaga? Así es”, señaló el gobernador de Nueva Jersey, Phil Murphy, un demócrata que rechaza categóricamente la idea de que Biden sea demasiado mayor para ser presidente. “¿Siempre ha divagado? Sí, así es. En público y en privado. Siempre es el mismo. Literalmente —y no lo digo a la ligera— en mi vida no he conocido a nadie más que sea tanto la misma persona en público como en privado”.El hecho de que se le preste tanta atención a su edad es algo que les molesta a algunos de sus amigos. “Creo que la razón por la que esto es un problema es principalmente porque los medios de comunicación hablan de ello constantemente”, dijo Ted Kaufman, exsenador por Delaware que desde hace mucho tiempo es asesor de Biden. “En mi trato con él no veo nada que demuestre que la edad sea un problema. Ha hecho más de lo que ningún presidente ha podido hacer en toda mi vida”.Andrew Bates, portavoz de la Casa Blanca, señaló que los republicanos de línea dura se quejaban de que Biden había derrotado a McCarthy en el acuerdo fiscal. “Es revelador que los mismos congresistas extremistas que han estado hablando de su edad se quejaran esta semana de que fue más listo que ellos en el acuerdo presupuestario”, dijo Bates.Desde luego que el tema de la edad de Biden no viene aislado. Trump, su contrincante republicano más probable, solo es cuatro años menor y era el presidente más viejo de la historia antes de que Biden lo sucediera. Si Trump gana el próximo año, tendría 82 años al finalizar su presidencia, mayor de lo que será Biden al final de este mandato.Mientras estuvo en el cargo, Trump generó preocupación acerca de su agudeza mental y su condición física. No hacía ejercicio, su dieta consistía principalmente en hamburguesas con queso y carne, y oficialmente pesaba 110 kilos, peso que, para su estatura, ya se considera obesidad.Después de quejarse de que tenía demasiadas reuniones en las mañanas, Trump dejó de llegar al Despacho Oval antes de las 11 u 11:30 a. m. todos los días para quedarse en su residencia a ver la televisión, hacer llamadas telefónicas o enviar tuits iracundos. Durante una presentación en la Academia Militar de Estados Unidos en West Point, tuvo problemas para levantar un vaso de agua y parece que le costó trabajo bajar por una sencilla rampa.Más sorprendente era el rendimiento cognitivo de Trump. Era errático y tendía a divagar; los expertos constataron que había perdido elocuencia y que su vocabulario se había reducido desde su juventud. En privado, sus colaboradores decían que Trump tenía problemas para procesar la información y distinguir la realidad de la ficción. Su segundo jefe de gabinete, John F. Kelly, compró un libro que analizaba la salud psicológica de Trump para entenderle mejor, y varios secretarios del gabinete, preocupados por su posible incapacidad mental, se plantearon invocar la Enmienda 25 para destituirlo.En la opinión pública, los problemas cognitivos del expresidente Donald Trump no se asocian tan a menudo con la edad como los de Biden, quizá porque el estilo ampuloso de Trump proyecta energía.Doug Mills/The New York TimesPero quizá porque su estilo ampuloso transmite energía, los problemas de Trump no se asocian tanto con la edad, en la mente del público, como los de Biden. En una encuesta reciente de Reuters/Ipsos, el 73 por ciento dijo que Biden es demasiado mayor para ser presidente, frente al 51 por ciento que dijo lo mismo de Trump.Biden gestiona su jornada con más disciplina que su predecesor. Jill Biden, que da clases en el Northern Virginia Community College, se levanta alrededor de las 6 a. m., mientras que el presidente se despierta una hora más tarde, según lo que suele decir. Biden le ha dicho a sus colaboradores que, a veces, su gato lo despierta en mitad de la noche cuando camina sobre su cara.A las 7:20 a. m. la primera dama se va a trabajar. El mandatario hace ejercicio a las 8 a. m.; tiene una bicicleta Peloton en la residencia y es conocido por ver programas como Morning Joe en MSNBC. Llega al Despacho Oval a las 9 a. m. para tener una mañana por lo general repleta de reuniones. Para comer, alterna entre ensaladas, sopas y sándwiches.Biden hace ejercicio cinco días a la semana y no bebe.Al Drago para The New York TimesTras los eventos de la tarde, el presidente regresa a la residencia a eso de las 6:45 p. m. Para cenar, su platillo favorito es la pasta. De hecho, según un antiguo funcionario, siempre que viaja, sus ayudantes se aseguran de que haya salsa roja a mano para la pasta con la que termina el día, incluso cuando suele rechazar el salmón que su esposa insiste en que coma.A partir de las 8:00 p. m., los Biden suelen leer juntos sus libros e informes en el salón de la residencia. La primera dama suele acostarse a las 10:30 p. m. y el presidente media hora más tarde.Sus colaboradores dicen que, por las preguntas que hace después, está claro que él lee los informes. “No hay nadie mejor a la hora de hacer preguntas para llegar al fondo de un asunto, para detectar una vaguedad o hacer preguntas difíciles”, dijo Stefanie Feldman, secretaria de personal de la Casa Blanca. “Hace preguntas igual de difíciles que hace 10 años”.Algunos de los que le acompañan en el extranjero expresan su asombro por su capacidad para mantener el ritmo. Cuando la nueva líder de Italia presionó para que se celebrara una reunión mientras el presidente estaba en Polonia, éste accedió de buena gana y la añadió a su agenda que estaba repleta. Durante un viaje a Irlanda, las personas que le acompañaban dijeron que estaba lleno de energía y que quería hablar largo y tendido en el Air Force One en vez de descansar.Sin embargo, tras agotadoras jornadas en sus viajes, faltó a cenas con líderes mundiales en Indonesia el año pasado y de nuevo en Japón cuando fue de visita en mayo. Algunas personas que lo conocen desde hace años dicen en privado que han notado pequeños cambios. Según un exfuncionario, cuando se sienta suele apoyar una mano en el escritorio para sostener su peso y rara vez vuelve a levantarse con su antigua energía.El personal de Biden programa la mayoría de sus apariciones públicas entre el mediodía y las 4  p. m. y, en la medida de lo posible, le libera los fines de semana.Doug Mills/The New York TimesHabla tan bajo que resulta difícil oírle. Para los discursos, sus ayudantes le dan un micrófono de mano que se acerca a la boca para amplificar su voz, incluso cuando está ante un atril con micrófonos.Biden y Jill Biden, su esposa, suelen tener un horario similar.Doug Mills/The New York TimesSin embargo, sus colaboradores dicen que, aunque puede olvidar momentáneamente un nombre o un hecho, conserva una formidable memoria para los detalles. Cuando se disponía a viajar a Shanksville, Pensilvania, en el vigésimo aniversario de los atentados del 11 de septiembre de 2001, se sintió frustrado porque los funcionarios le habían dado un plan equivocado para sus desplazamientos. Ya había estado en el monumento conmemorativo y sabía que el plan no tenía sentido porque recordaba la disposición del terreno.Funcionarios de la Casa Blanca se quejan de que la preocupación por la edad se ve exagerada por las fotos de internet, que a veces son falsas o están muy distorsionadas. Cada semana, los estrategas realizan un análisis de la nube de palabras con un panel de votantes preguntándoles qué habían oído sobre el presidente, bueno o malo. Después de que el año pasado se le enganchara el pie en el pedal de la bicicleta y diera una voltereta, durante semanas las palabras de la nube fueron “caída de la bicicleta”, lo que resultaba aún más frustrante para los asesores que señalaban que Trump apenas parecía capaz de montar en bicicleta.Últimamente, Biden ha recurrido al humor autocrítico para atenuar el asunto, al igual que lo hizo Reagan en su reelección de 1984, la cual ganó a los 73 años gracias, en parte, a una oportuna broma durante el debate acerca de no aprovecharse de “la juventud e inexperiencia del oponente”.Algunos de los que le acompañan en el extranjero expresan su asombro por su capacidad para mantener el ritmo. Sin embargo, tras agotadoras jornadas en sus viajes del año pasado, faltó a cenas con líderes mundiales en Indonesia y eso también le pasó cuando estuvo en Japón en mayo.Doug Mills/The New York TimesEn la cena de los corresponsales, Biden aseguró al público que respaldaba la primera enmienda y “no solo porque la redactó mi buen amigo Jimmy Madison”, en referencia al político del siglo XIX. Durante el evento del Día de Llevar a Tu Hijo al Trabajo, reflexionó acerca de “cuando yo era más joven, hace como unos 120 años”.Asimismo, hace algunos días, en la Academia de la Fuerza Aérea, Biden bromeó al decir “cuando iba a graduarme del bachillerato hace 300 años, hice mi solicitud para entrar a la Academia Naval”. Después de tropezar con el saco de arena, también trató de tomárselo a broma. “Me metieron el pie”, dijo.Peter Baker es el corresponsal jefe de la Casa Blanca y ha cubierto a los últimos cinco presidentes para el Times y The Washington Post. Es autor de siete libros, el más reciente The Divider: Trump in the White House, 2017-2021, con Susan Glasser. @peterbakernyt • FacebookMichael D. Shear es un corresponsal experimentado de la Casa Blanca y dos veces ganador del Premio Pulitzer que también formó parte del equipo que ganó la Medalla de Servicio Público por la cobertura de la COVID-19 en 2020. Es coautor de Border Wars: Inside Trump’s Assault on Immigration. @shearmKatie Rogers es corresponsal de la Casa Blanca y cubre la administración Biden, la cultura de Washington y la política interna. Se unió al Times en 2014. @katierogersZolan Kanno-Youngs es corresponsal en la Casa Blanca y cubre una variedad de temas nacionales e internacionales en la gestión de Biden, incluida la seguridad nacional y el extremismo. Se unió al Times en 2019 como corresponsal de seguridad nacional. @KannoYoungs More

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      Do Christie and Pence Make It 2016 Again? Not Yet.

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      A bigger field in the G.O.P. primary could chip away at DeSantis’s chances of overtaking Trump.A crowded field could help Donald Trump, as it did in 2015-16. Mark J. Terrill/Associated PressIt’s been feeling a bit like 2016 lately.Back then, the opposition to Donald J. Trump was badly divided. The party couldn’t coalesce behind one candidate, allowing Mr. Trump to win the Republican primary with well under half of the vote.With Mike Pence and Chris Christie bringing the field up to 10 candidates this week, it’s easy to wonder whether the same conditions might be falling into place again. Despite high hopes at the start of the year, Ron DeSantis has failed to consolidate Trump-skeptic voters and donors alike. Now, the likes of Mr. Pence and Mr. Christie — as well as Tim Scott and Nikki Haley — are in the fray and threatening to leave the Trump opposition hopelessly divided, as it was seven years ago.In the end, Mr. Pence or Mr. Christie might well break out and leave the opposition to Mr. Trump as fractured as it was in 2016. But it’s worth noting that, so far, the opposition to Mr. Trump has been far more unified than it ever was back then. It’s not 2016, at least not yet.So far this cycle, polls have consistently shown Mr. DeSantis with the support of a majority of Republican voters who don’t support Mr. Trump. Nothing like this happened in that past primary, when at various points five different candidates could claim to be the strongest “not-Trump” candidate, and none came even close to consolidating so much of the opposition to Mr. Trump. Ted Cruz got there eventually, but only after a majority of delegates had been awarded and it was down to him and John Kasich.Perhaps surprisingly, Mr. DeSantis’s share of not-Trump voters has remained constant, even though his own support has dropped. This suggests Mr. DeSantis has mainly bled support to Mr. Trump, not to another not-Trump rival. It also suggests that the other not-Trump candidates may have bled support to Mr. Trump over the last half year as well.Consolidation of Not-Trump Voters More

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      Mike Pence Is ‘a Rebuke of Trump’s Presidency’: Our Columnists and Writers Weigh In on His Candidacy

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      As Republican candidates enter the race for their party’s 2024 presidential nomination, Times columnists, Opinion writers and others will assess their strengths and weaknesses with a scorecard. We rate the candidates on a scale of 1 to 10: 1 means the candidate will probably drop out before any caucus or primary voting; 10 means the candidate has a very strong chance of receiving the party’s nomination next summer. This entry assesses Mike Pence, the former vice president.Candidate strength averagesRon DeSantis: 6.1Tim Scott: 4.6Nikki Haley: 3.5Mike Pence: 3.0Asa Hutchinson: 2.3How seriously should we take Mike Pence’s candidacy?Frank Bruni At least a bit more seriously than the fly that colonized his coiffure during his 2020 debate with Kamala Harris did. He is polling well enough to be part of the Republican primary debates. Let’s hope that Chris Licht at CNN has an entomologist at the ready for the post-debate panel.Jane Coaston Not very.Michelle Cottle As seriously as the wet dishrag he impersonated for most of his term as V.P.Ross Douthat On paper, a former vice president known for his evangelical faith sounds like a plausible Republican candidate for president. But in practice, because of Pence’s role on Jan. 6 and his break with Donald Trump thereafter, to vote for Trump’s vice president is to actively repudiate Trump himself. So until there’s evidence the G.O.P. voters are ready for such an overt repudiation (as opposed to just moving on to another candidate), there isn’t good reason to take Pence’s chances seriously.David French Nothing signals G.O.P. loyalty to Trump more than G.O.P. anger at Mike Pence. And what sin has he committed in Republican eyes? After years of faithful service to Trump, he refused to violate the law and risk the unity of the Republic by wrongly overturning an American election. We can’t take Pence seriously until Republicans stop taking Trump seriously.Michelle Goldberg One clue to Mike Pence’s standing among Republican base voters is that many of them have made heroes out of a mob chanting “hang Mike Pence.”Nicole Hemmer On the one hand, he’s the former vice president, which has to count for something. On the other hand, a mob whipped up by the former president wanted to hang him in front of Congress, so his candidacy is a high-risk proposition.Katherine Mangu-Ward Mike Pence is a serious person. He is seriously not going to be president.Daniel McCarthy As things stand, his candidacy isn’t very serious. If calamity befalls Donald Trump, however, the former vice president could gain favor as the G.O.P. old guard’s alternative to Ron DeSantis.What matters most about him as a presidential candidate?Bruni He was Trump’s No. 2, so the fact of his candidacy is a rebuke of Trump’s presidency. He has a warm history with evangelical voters, whom he will assiduously court. And if squaring off against Trump somehow prods Pence to be more candid about what he saw at the fair, his words could theoretically wound.Coaston It is a candidacy no one wants.Cottle He’s a uniter: Everyone dislikes him.Douthat As long as he’s polling in the single digits, he matters only as a condensed symbol of the Republican electorate’s resilient loyalty to Trump. What could matter, come the debates, is that he’s the Republican with the strongest incentive to attack his former boss on character and fitness rather than just on issues — because his history with Trump sets him apart from the other non-Trump candidates, and his only possible path to the nomination involves persuading primary voters that he was right on Jan. 6 and Trump was wrong. If he sees it this way, his clashes with Trump could be interesting theater, and they might even help someone beat the former president; that someone, however, is still unlikely to be Pence himself.French Pence’s stand on Jan. 6 is defining him. In a healthy party, his integrity at that moment would be an asset. In the modern G.O.P., it’s a crippling liability.Goldberg It’s notable that Trump’s former vice president, the man chosen, in part, to reassure the Christian right, is now running against him. If Pence were willing to call out the treachery and mayhem he saw up close, it would be a useful intervention into our politics. But so far, he still seems cowed by his former boss.Hemmer In a rational world, he’d be a plausible candidate because of his strong connection to white evangelicals and time as V.P. But in this world, he’s the scapegoat for Trump’s failed effort to overthrow the 2020 election.Mangu-Ward Pence is an old-school Republican. The likely failure of his campaign will demonstrate how dead that version of the party really is. There was lots to hate about that party — including the punitive social conservatism demonstrated in his positions on abortion and gay rights — but I will confess to some nostalgia for the rhetoric of limited government and fiscal conservatism that still sometimes crosses Pence’s lips, seemingly in earnest.McCarthy His experience and calm demeanor give him a gravitas most rivals lack. He puts Governor DeSantis at risk of seeming too young to be president, even as the 44-year-old governor suggests Trump is too old.What do you find most inspiring — or unsettling — about his vision for America?Bruni I’m unsettled by how strongly Pence has always let his deeply conservative version of Christianity inform his policy positions. I respect people of faith, very much, but in a country with no official church and enormous diversity, he makes inadequate distinction between personal theology and public governance.Coaston He might be the most uninspiring candidate currently running.Cottle He wants to ram his conservative religious views down the nation’s throat.Douthat To the extent that Pence has a distinctive vision, it overlaps with both Nikki Haley’s and Tim Scott’s, albeit with a bit more piety worked in. Like them, he’s selling an upbeat Reaganism that seems out of step with both the concerns of G.O.P. voters and the challenges of the moment. The fact that Pence wants to revive George W. Bush’s push for private Social Security accounts is neither inspiring nor unsettling; it’s just quixotic, which so far feels like the spirit of his entire presidential run.French It’s plain that Pence wants to turn from Trumpism in both tone and in key elements of substance. He’s far more of a Reagan conservative than Trump ever was. Yet his accommodations to Trump remain unsettling even after Jan. 6. One can appreciate his stand for the Constitution while also recognizing that it’s a bit like applauding an arsonist for putting out a fire he helped start.Goldberg Pence would like to impose his religious absolutism on the entire country. As he said last year, after Roe v. Wade was overturned, “We must not rest and must not relent until the sanctity of life is restored to the center of American law in every state in the land.”Hemmer Pence doesn’t stir up culture wars to win elections — he earnestly believes in a strictly patriarchal, overtly Christian version of the United States. (He was bashing Disney for suggesting women could serve in combat back when DeSantis was still in college.)Mangu-Ward Pence’s vision for America includes the peaceful transfer of power. He was willing to say these words: “President Trump is wrong. I had no right to overturn the election.” This shouldn’t be inspiring; it should be the bare minimum for a viable political career. But here we are.McCarthy What’s unsettling about Pence’s vision is how similar it is to George W. Bush’s. It’s a vision that substitutes moralism for realism in foreign policy and is too deferential to the Chamber of Commerce at home — to the detriment of religious liberty as well as working-class families.Imagine you’re a G.O.P. operative or campaign manager. What’s your elevator pitch for a Pence candidacy?Bruni He was loyal to Trump until that would have been disloyal to democracy. No porn stars or hush money here. He has presidential hair. Even flies think so.Coaston The former governor of Indiana has some thoughts he’d like to share.Cottle He has high name recognition — and great hair.Douthat There are lots of Republicans who claimed they liked Trump’s conservative policies but didn’t like all the feuds, tweets and drama. Well, a vote for Pence is a vote for his administration’s second term, but this time drama-free.French G.O.P. voters, if you’re proud of the Trump administration’s accomplishments yet tired of Trump’s drama, Pence is your man.Goldberg Honestly, it’s not easy to come up with one, but I guess he’s qualified and he looks the part.Hemmer No one is better prepared to face down the woke mob than the candidate who survived an actual mob two years ago.Mangu-Ward Mike Pence: If he loses, he’ll admit that he lost!McCarthy Mike Pence means no drama and no disruption — a return to business as usual. Doesn’t that sound good right now?Ross Douthat, David French and Michelle Goldberg are Times columnists.Frank Bruni is a professor of journalism and public policy at Duke University, the author of the book “The Beauty of Dusk” and a contributing Opinion writer.Michelle Cottle (@mcottle) is a member of The Times’s editorial board.Jane Coaston is a Times Opinion writer.Nicole Hemmer (@pastpunditry) is an associate professor of history and director of the Rogers Center for the American Presidency at Vanderbilt University and the author of “Partisans: The Conservative Revolutionaries Who Remade American Politics in the 1990s” and “Messengers of the Right: Conservative Media and the Transformation of American Politics.”Katherine Mangu-Ward (@kmanguward) is the editor in chief of Reason magazine.Daniel McCarthy is the editor of “Modern Age: A Conservative Review.”The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Biden-Trump, the Sequel, Has Quite a Few Plot Twists

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      Bret Stephens: Hi, Gail. A recent CNN poll shows that 20 percent of Democrats favor Robert F. Kennedy Jr., for the party’s nomination, 8 percent want Marianne Williamson and another 8 percent want someone else. That’s 36 percent saying they aren’t thrilled with the presumptive nominee. Do you think this is some kind of polling fluke or an ominous political sign for Joe Biden?Gail Collins: Bret, it’s more than a year until the presidential conventions. All the Democrats know that Joe Biden is going to be their nominee. Some, like me, think he’s been doing a terrific job. Others find him pretty boring.Bret: Or “walking the trail of so-so,” as my youngest likes to say.Gail: I am absolutely sure that a lot of the people raising their hands for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or Marianne Williamson have no idea who either of them actually is. Obviously, they recognize the Kennedy name, but I’ll bet most don’t know about his new career as an anti-vaxxer.Do you disagree?Bret: I do. Neither of them is an unknown quantity. R.F.K. Jr. has been a public figure for decades, and there are plenty of dark corners of America where his anti-vax views and penchant for conspiracy theories resonate. Williamson touched a nerve — or summoned a spirit — as the “dark psychic force” lady from the last Democratic primary.Gail: By the fall, Democrats may be bored enough to want a conversation about dark psychic forces, but I think we deserve a summer break.Bret: Only 60 percent of Democrats say they support Biden. By contrast, well over 86 percent of Republicans supported Donald Trump in June of 2019, according to an earlier CNN poll. And the RealClearPolitics average of polls gives both Trump and Ron DeSantis an edge over the president, which is bad now when the economy is relatively strong but will be politically catastrophic for him if the economy dips into recession. Democrats are placing a very big bet on a stumbling incumbent; that sound you hear is me paging Roy Cooper, Jared Polis and Gretchen Whitmer.Gail: Sigh. Bret, we both agreed long ago that we hoped Biden wouldn’t run for another term, leaving the door open for all the interesting Democratic prospects to get in the race.But it didn’t happen and it isn’t going to happen. And we’re stuck with a choice between Joe Biden and a bunch of terrible Republicans.Bret: I’m still not convinced that that’s the choice we are — or need to be — stuck with: Lyndon Johnson didn’t drop out of the race until March 1968. Where is Eugene McCarthy when you need him?Gail: Biden’s doing very well — got a bunch of big initiatives passed this term, worked out a budget deal last week.Bret: Gail, who do you think gained — or suffered — the most, politically speaking, from the budget deal, Biden or Kevin McCarthy, the House speaker?Gail: Well. Biden is really having a stellar run. McCarthy was in serious danger of being tossed out of his job by members of his own party. So at least in terms of averting personal disaster, McCarthy had a pretty big win.Bret: True, and he managed to bring most of his caucus along with him. Then again, most of the “savings” McCarthy claims to have achieved with the deal achieved were basically notional.Gail: In terms of overall results, the Democrats did best. Even though I am very, very irritated about the cut in funding to the I.R.S.Bret, doesn’t it bother you that the Republicans just don’t want the tax collectors to have enough money to do their jobs?Bret: The best solution for the I.R.S. would be something like a universal 18 percent income tax for everyone, calculable on a single sheet of paper, with zero deductions or exemptions. Throwing money at the agency will do more to compound its problems than solve them.Gail: Interesting theory that’s not gonna happen. Right now, when you have folks at an agency that’s long been underfunded, trying to ride herd on businesses and wealthy individuals who have ever-more-complicated strategies for thwarting them, I don’t think the answer is to sniff and say, “Try harder.” The only thing we can be sure that the I.R.S. cut will give us is lower federal revenue from people who like avoiding taxes.Bret: Which sorta makes my point for a simplified tax code, not another $80 billion for the agency.In the meantime, Gail, the Trump-DeSantis battle of the put-downs is heating up. And Chris Christie may be getting in the race. Your thoughts on the G.O.P.’s Palio di Siena?Gail: Palio di Siena is an Italian horse race that’s known for being very crowded and very colorful, right?Bret: Also, loud, insane, scary and deadly for horses. Though maybe the better analogy for the way the Republican primary campaign is shaping up is Pamplona’s running of the bulls.Gail: Well, the Republican field is definitely getting … bigger. Colorful may take a little more work. (This week it looks like we will also be welcoming Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota to the field!)Bret: I’m probably going to destroy my credibility right now by confessing that I neither knew of the announcement nor the man until you just mentioned him. Sorry, Bismarck!Gail: I say, the more the merrier. Chris Christie would be a fine addition when it comes to making things more interesting, and I’d really love to hear him in a debate with, say, DeSantis. On the down side, he has about as much chance of winning the nomination as I would of winning that Siena horse race.Bret: Hehe.Gail: You’re in charge of the Republicans here — give me a rundown of where we are.Bret: Well, to your point about “the more the merrier,” my fear is that as more Republicans jump into the race, it just makes it easier for Trump to clear the field.On the other hand, I think that Christie has a very clear idea of what he wants to do in the race: namely, to be a torpedo aimed straight at the S.S. Trump — maybe as a form of penance for his endorsement of Trump seven years ago. Christie helped sink Marco Rubio’s candidacy at the New Hampshire debate in 2016 and he wants to do the same to The Donald in this election cycle. The former New Jersey governor is a gifted speaker, so I can only hope he succeeds.Gail: Blessings to you, Chris Christie. Unless that means pushing DeSantis permanently to the top. I know it’s weird but I’ve admitted to you I’d actually prefer Trump if that awful option is the choice.Bret: We’ve argued about this before. I can only refer you to a point made by Frank Bruni in his terrific column on this point: “I’d be distraught during a DeSantis presidency and depressed during a Pence one. But at least I might recognize the America on the far side of it.”Gail: Frank is of course great. Now about the current field — you’d like Chris Christie as a debater, but how about as an actual nominee. Your favorite of the week?Bret: Christie is everything a Democrat could reasonably want in a Republican: gregarious, pragmatic, competent, highly intelligent, capable of reaching across the aisle and most definitely not a hater. I doubt he has any kind of realistic shot at the nomination, but I also know that he’s too much of a realist to think he has a realistic shot, either. His job is to demolish Trump so that Republicans can finally get past the former president. My guess is he’d like the job of attorney general in a DeSantis administration.Enough about Republicans, Gail. What else is tickling your mind these days?Gail: Don’t suppose you want to talk about basketball playoffs, huh?Bret: Shame about the Celtics.Gail: Sigh. Well, I’ve been interested in watching the evolution of the abortion debate — even DeSantis seems to be a little wary about waving his dreadful six-week ban around.Bret: Too little too late, but yes: Even he seems to realize that the ban doesn’t go over too well with a lot of people who might lean Republican, including otherwise conservative women. The most I can say about it is that it’s very on brand for the Florida governor: abrasive, abusive and arrogant.Gail: Hey, we really can’t get away from the Republicans, can we? And the Democrats keep disappearing. Bret, did anybody besides the immediate Biden family notice that the president gave a speech to the nation on the budget deal?Bret: In 100 years, historians might be calling this the Rodney Dangerfield presidency: “I don’t get no respect!” But, honestly, I find it a little painful to watch Biden speak and I suspect a lot of people feel the same way.Gail: Painful like listening to a favorite uncle put the guests to sleep at Thanksgiving. Which is not like listening to a dreadful first cousin once removed terrify all the other relatives with a rant about family members he hates.Bret: Fair point!Gail: Bret, since we’re closing on the topic of unfortunate speeches, let me cheer you up by mentioning a really fine one. This is the part of our conversation when you usually wrap things up by describing something you’ve just read that you want to recommend. But today I get to do the finale — ha-ha — and my choice is your address to the graduates at the University of Chicago about freedom of expression. It was terrific.And the focus on civilized disagreement reminded me of how lucky I am to get to have a discussion like this with you every week.Bret: I feel just the same way. It was good to have a chance to go back to my alma mater and pay tribute to Robert Zimmer, its former president, who died last month — a role model as a leader, thinker, friend and man.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More