Polls and Public Opinion

Subterms

    More stories

    • 150 Shares169 Views

      in Elections

      How Can Democrats Persuade Voters They’re Not a Party of Rich Elites?

      by

      Today, at an unassuming event space in Washington overlooking the Capitol, a coterie of progressive thinkers and doers gathered for an intimate conference that could not have been more different from the boisterous gathering hosted just down the road by the conservative America First Policy Institute.The purpose of Tuesday’s liberal gathering was to discuss ways to counter a narrative that appears to be gaining traction with voters: that Democrats are now the party of economic elites, while Republicans represent working-class Americans.The G.O.P., of course, has been trying to pull off exactly this feat for decades — with mixed success.Richard Nixon spoke of a “silent majority” of Americans who were turned off by what they saw as the cultural excess of the 1960s. One famous attack line from Nixon’s re-election campaign painted George McGovern, the Democratic nominee in 1972, as the candidate of “acid, amnesty and abortion.”Ronald Reagan, a sunnier type, appealed to the patriotism and conservative social values of blue-collar workers in places like Ohio’s Mahoning Valley by aggressively confronting the Soviet Union abroad and speaking openly about his Christian faith.A shift for the partiesBut it was Donald Trump, a billionaire real estate baron from Manhattan, who arguably pulled off the major realignment of the two parties along educational and class lines. Now, Republican politicians boast that theirs is the party of working people. They speak much less often, in public at least, about “tort reform,” “double taxation” and other phrases that the business community once regularly injected into the political conversation.This shift has alarmed many Democratic Party strategists. Americans without a college degree still represent the majority of voters, fueling critiques like Ruy Teixeira’s jeremiad against what he characterizes as overly educated cultural snobs who, in his view, are leading Democrats to ruin.Many of those critiques urge Democrats to alter their cultural message to reach voters who might not share their views on, say, structural racism or immigration.But the wonks and operatives huddling at Tuesday’s series of panels and hallway discussions would argue that party leaders are failing on two more fundamental levels: They don’t fight hard enough for working-class people, and they aren’t tough enough on big, greedy corporations.Leah Hunt-Hendrix, an oil heiress turned liberal activist, organized the event with Adam Jentleson, a former top aide to Harry Reid, the Democratic majority leader and senator from Nevada who died last year.Jentleson, who now runs a progressive communications strategy firm called Battle Born Collective along with Rebecca Katz, said in an interview, “Democrats must find a more effective way to meet working-class voters where they are, and channel their very real anger — or else Republicans will.”Adam Jentleson with Senator Harry Reid in 2015. Jentleson, who now helps run a progressive communications strategy firm, supports an economic approach he calls “inclusive populism.”Tom Williams/Roll Call, via Getty ImagesJentleson championed an economic philosophy called “inclusive populism” — essentially, left-leaning economics without the nastiness of past populist movements, which have often channeled working-class voters’ resentment toward immigrants or racial minorities.Not everyone could agree on what to call their nascent movement, with one attendee noting that the term “populist” comes freighted with historical baggage.Brandishing a fresh survey commissioned by the progressive group Fight Corporate Monopolies and conducted by GBAO, a Democratic polling firm led by Margie Omero, Jentleson argued that “a populist economic message is highly effective, and it’s crazy that Dems aren’t already moving in this direction as fast as possible.”Omero, who presented her findings at the conference, said that while Democrats’ problems with white working-class voters might be the most acute, workers without college degrees of all backgrounds are drawn to the general tenets of “inclusive populism” — whatever one calls it — and are highly receptive to messages that blame, say, oil companies for the high price of gasoline.Among the other speakers at Tuesday’s gathering — which was called Sound Check — were Representative Jamaal Bowman, a Democrat from New York’s Westchester County; Heather McGhee, the board chairwoman of Color of Change, a civil rights group; and Zachary Carter, a journalist and the author of a biography of John Maynard Keynes.In his talk, Carter bashed unnamed economists of the “old guard” of the Democratic Party, who he said were misdiagnosing the causes of inflation and prescribing, essentially, higher unemployment and lower wages as the answer.“The story we are hearing from the old guard is not fundamentally compelling in a democracy,” Carter said. “Their critique is premised on the idea that most working people actually have it too good, and attempts to improve their well-being can only make things worse.”An informal coalition of progressive groups helped put on the event: Way to Win, a donor community led by Ms. Hunt-Hendrix; Fight Corporate Monopolies, a relatively new advocacy group led by Sarah Miller, founder of the American Economic Liberties Project; the Economic Security Project, led by Taylor Jo Isenberg; and Popular Comms, a progressive strategy group co-founded by Jonathan Smucker.Lessons from PennsylvaniaSmucker, whose background is in political organizing in eastern and central Pennsylvania, gave a presentation on lessons learned from the 2018 campaign for Congress of Jess King, who ran as an inclusive populist in Lancaster, Pa.King, who styled herself a working mom who refused to take “corporate” donations, wound up losing her race after a court decision left the district solidly Republican.She would have been able to overcome the district’s original lean of six percentage points toward the G.O.P., though not the 14-point structural advantage she ultimately faced in the general election, Smucker said.What helped open the door with working-class voters in that district, Smucker said, was an aggressive door-knocking campaign that began with a conversation about “special interests,” Trump’s tax cuts for the wealthy and the eventual need for a universal health care system — and included large doses of criticism of the leaders of the Democratic Party as disappointing and out of touch.The unmistakable tone of the event was a rebuke of the Democrats who have failed to squeeze more progressive policy wins out of their congressional majority over the last 18 months — and essentially, in the left’s telling, let their most conservative member, Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, dictate the terms of their governing agenda.Hunt-Hendrix said she found the conference “fortifying” at a time when many on the left are discouraged by how the midterm elections are shaping up.Jentleson emphasized that Tuesday’s confab was “a conversation about the future of the party, not a prescription for 2022.”What to readIn competing speeches in Washington, Donald Trump portrayed the country as overwhelmed by crime, Michael Bender reports, while Mike Pence tried to draw subtle distinctions with his former ally and current rival.Previously undisclosed communications among Trump campaign aides and outside advisers provide new insight into their efforts to overturn the election in the weeks leading to Jan. 6, Maggie Haberman and Luke Broadwater report.As the world faces disasters including climate change and the pandemic, an old question seems newly urgent: Does democracy or autocracy perform better in times of crisis? Max Fisher explores.Several disabled voters are suing Wisconsin’s Elections Commission in federal court, seeking to restore a decades-old precedent that allowed people with disabilities to receive assistance with the return of absentee ballots.— BlakeIs there anything you think we’re missing? Anything you want to see more of? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. More

    • 125 Shares199 Views

      in Elections

      After Recent Turmoil, the Race for Texas Governor Is Tightening

      by

      A series of tragedies and challenges have soured the mood of Texans and made the governor’s race perhaps the most competitive since the 1990s.SUGAR LAND, Texas — One of the deadliest school shootings in U.S. history. The revival of a 1920s ban on abortion. The country’s worst episode of migrant death in recent memory. And an electrical grid, which failed during bitter cold, now straining under soaring heat.The unrelenting succession of death and difficulty facing Texans over the last two months has soured them on the direction of the state, hurting Gov. Greg Abbott and making the race for governor perhaps the most competitive since Democrats last held that office in the 1990s.Polls have shown a tightening, single-digit contest between Mr. Abbott, the two-term incumbent, and his ubiquitous Democratic challenger, the former congressman Beto O’Rourke. Mr. O’Rourke is now raising more campaign cash than Mr. Abbott — $27.6 million to $24.9 million in the last filing — in a race that is likely to be among the most expensive of 2022.Suddenly, improbably, perhaps unwisely, Texas Democrats are again daring to think — as they have in many recent election years — that maybe this could be the year.“It seems like some the worst things that are happening in this country have their roots in Texas,” said James Talarico, a Democratic state representative from north of Austin. “We’re seeing a renewed fighting spirit.”At the same time, the winds of national discontent are whipping hard in the other direction, against Democrats. Texans, like many Americans, have felt the strain of rising inflation and have a low opinion of President Biden. Unlike four years ago, when Mr. O’Rourke challenged Senator Ted Cruz and nearly won during a midterm referendum on President Donald J. Trump that lifted Democrats, now it is Republicans who are animated by animus toward the White House and poised to make gains in state races.But in recent weeks there has been a perceptible shift in Texas, as registered in several public polls and some internal campaign surveys, after the school shooting in Uvalde that killed 19 children and two teachers and the U.S. Supreme Court ruling on abortion, Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, that brought back into force a 1925 law banning all abortions except when the woman’s life is at risk.“Dobbs at the margins has hurt Republicans in Texas. Uvalde at the margins has hurt Republicans in Texas. The grid has hurt Republicans in Texas,” said Mark P. Jones, a professor of political science at Rice University who helped conduct one recent poll. “Biden and inflation have been their saving grace.”Mr. O’Rourke speaking in June during his rally for abortion rights in Austin, Texas. Montinique Monroe for The New York TimesMost voters polled did not rank guns or abortion among their top issues in the recent survey, by the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs, but many of Mr. O’Rourke’s supporters did, suggesting the issues could help to energize his voters, Mr. Jones said.And the issue of gun control was a top concern among another group that Republicans have been fighting hard to win away from Democrats: Hispanic women.A separate poll, conducted by the University of Texas at Austin and released this month, showed 59 percent of respondents thought Texas was on the “wrong track,” the highest number in more than a decade of asking that question. Another, from Quinnipiac University, found Mr. O’Rourke within 5 percentage points of the governor.As the new polls showed Mr. O’Rourke’s numbers improving, Mr. Abbott’s campaign convened a conference call with reporters this month.Key Themes From the 2022 Midterm Elections So FarCard 1 of 5The state of the midterms. More

    • 50 Shares149 Views

      in Elections

      Why Trump Is Weakening

      by

      In Donald Trump’s quest to sustain his dominance over the Republican Party, his claim to have been robbed of victory in 2020 has been a crucial talisman, lending him powers denied to previous defeated presidential candidates. By insisting that he was cheated out of victory, Trump fashioned himself into a king-in-exile rather than a loser — an Arthur betrayed by the Mordreds of his own party, waiting in the Avalon of Mar-a-Lago to make his prophesied return.As with many forms of dark Trumpian brilliance, though, the former president is not exactly in conscious control of this strategy. He intuited rather than calculated his way to its effectiveness, and he seems too invested in its central conceit — the absolute righteousness of his “Stop the Steal” campaign — to modulate when it begins to reap diminishing returns.That’s a big part of why 2022 hasn’t been a particularly good year for Trump’s 2024 ambitions. Across 2021, he bent important parts of the G.O.P. back to his will, but in recent months his powers have been ebbing — and for the same reason, his narrative of dispossession, that they were initially so strong.While Ron DeSantis, his strongest potential rival, has been throwing himself in front of almost every issue that Republican primary voters care about, Trump has marinated in grievance, narrowed his inner circle, and continued to badger Republican officials about undoing the last election. While DeSantis has been selling himself as the scourge of liberalism, the former president has been selling himself mostly as the scourge of Brian Kemp, Liz Cheney and Mike Pence.Judging by early primary polling, the DeSantis strategy is working at the Trump strategy’s expense. The governor is effectively tied with the former president in recent polls of New Hampshire and Michigan, and leading him easily in Florida — which is DeSantis’s home state, yes, but now Trump’s as well.These early numbers don’t prove that Trump can be beaten. But they strongly suggest that if his case for 2024 is only that he was robbed in 2020, it won’t be enough to achieve a restoration.This is not because the majority of Republicans have had their minds changed by the Jan. 6 committee, or suddenly decided that actually Joe Biden won fair and square. But the committee has probably played some role in bleeding Trump’s strength, by keeping him pinned to the 2020 election and its aftermath, giving him an extra reason to obsess about enemies and traitors and giving his more lukewarm Republican supporters a constant reminder of where the Trump experience ended up.By lukewarm supporters, I mean those Republicans who would be inclined to answer no if a pollster asked them if the 2020 election was fairly won, but who would also reject the conceit — as a majority of Republicans did in a Quinnipiac poll earlier this year — that Mike Pence could have legitimately done as Trump wished on Jan. 6.That’s a crucial distinction, because in my experience as well as in public polling, there are lots of conservatives who retain a general sense that Biden’s victory wasn’t fair without being committed to John Eastman’s cockamamie plans to force a constitutional crisis. In the same way, there are lots of conservatives who sympathize in a general way with the Jan. 6 protests while believing that they were essentially peaceful and that any rioting was the work of F.B.I. plants or outside agitators — which is deluded, but still quite different from actively wishing for a mob-led coup d’état.So to the extent that Trump is stuck litigating his own disgraceful conduct before and during the riot, a rival like DeSantis doesn’t need the lukewarm Trump supporter to believe everything the Jan. 6 committee reports. He just needs that supporter to regard Jan. 6 as an embarrassment and Trump’s behavior as feckless — while presenting himself as the candidate who can own the libs but also turn the page.A counterargument, raised on Friday by New York Magazine’s Jonathan Chait, is that so long as those lukewarm supporters still believe the 2020 election was unfair, Trump will have a trump card over any rival — because if you believe a steal happened, “you are perfectly rational to select a candidate who will acknowledge the crime and do everything to prevent it from reoccurring.”But it seems just as possible for the lukewarm supporter to decide that if Trump’s response to being robbed was to first just let it happen and then ask his vice president to wave a magic wand on his behalf, then maybe he’s not the right guy to take on the Democratic machine next time.There is more than one way, in other words, for Republican voters to decide that the former president is a loser. The stolen-election narrative has protected him from the simplest consequence of his defeat. But it doesn’t prevent the stench of failure from rising from his well-worn grievances, his whine of disappointment and complaint.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTOpinion) and Instagram. More

    • 150 Shares199 Views

      in Elections

      Jan. 6 Hearings Invoke Patriotism to Urge Voters to Break With Trump

      by

      On Thursday, the Jan. 6 committee made the case that Donald J. Trump’s conduct had been a violation of his Oath of Office.The Jan. 6 hearings at times have resembled a criminal trial in absentia for former President Donald J. Trump. On Thursday night, the proceedings suddenly felt more like a court-martial.A 20-year Navy veteran and a lieutenant colonel in the Air National Guard led the questioning by House members. Five times, Mr. Trump was accused of “dereliction of duty.” The nation’s highest-ranking military officer provided withering recorded testimony of the commander in chief’s failure to command. A former Marine and deputy national security adviser testified in person that the former president had flouted the very Constitution he had sworn to protect and defend.Over eight days and evenings, the Jan. 6 committee has relied almost exclusively on Republican witnesses to build its case that Mr. Trump bore personal responsibility for inspiring and even encouraging the riot that ransacked the Capitol. But on Thursday, the committee’s casting, choreography and script all appeared carefully coordinated to make a subtly different case to a particular subset of the American people — voters who have not yet been persuaded to break with Mr. Trump — that their patriotism itself dictates that they break with him now. “Whatever your politics, whatever you think about the outcome of the election, we as Americans must all agree on this — Donald Trump’s conduct on Jan. 6 was a supreme violation of his oath of office and a complete dereliction of his duty to our nation,” said Representative Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, a Republican and Air Force veteran who helped lead the questioning.Witness after witness portrayed in vivid detail how Mr. Trump consumed hours of Fox News coverage on Jan. 6, 2021, in his private dining room, rather than directing American forces to intervene and stop the bloodshed.Video clips of former President Donald J. Trump appeared during the House Select committee hearing on Thursday night.Doug Mills/The New York Times“No call? Nothing? Zero?” Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said incredulously in audio played from his deposition.The summer hearings have been a blockbuster by Capitol Hill standards, drawing big audiences and redefining what a congressional investigation — at least one without dissenting voices — should look like. The season finale, as it were, brought together all the plot lines of the previous episodes to portray Mr. Trump as a singular threat to American democracy, a man who put his own ambitions before everything else, including the well-being of lawmakers and his own vice president — and continued to do so even after the rioting and violence had subsided.“I don’t want to say, ‘The election is over,’” Mr. Trump said in an outtake of the taped address he delivered to the nation the day after the assault, which was obtained by the committee and played on Thursday. “I just want to say Congress has certified the results without saying the election is over, OK?”Weaving together clips of his own aides testifying about their frustrations, live questioning and never-before-seen video footage, the committee used the language of patriotism to try to disqualify Mr. Trump as a future candidate by appealing to that ever-more-endangered species in American politics: genuine swing voters whose opinions on the attack were not fully calcified.“He could have stopped it and chose not to,” said Deva Moore of Corpus Christi, Texas, who said she came away from the hearings “horrified.” “I think he is guilty of insurrection. He encouraged his supporters, who have every right to support him — he encouraged them to violence and murder.”Key Revelations From the Jan. 6 HearingsCard 1 of 9Making a case against Trump. More

    • 113 Shares119 Views

      in Elections

      Survey Looks at Acceptance of Political Violence in U.S.

      by

      One in five adults in the United States would be willing to condone acts of political violence, a new national survey commissioned by public health experts found, revelations that they say capture the escalation in extremism that was on display during the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.The online survey of more than 8,600 adults in the United States was conducted from mid-May to early June by the research firm Ipsos on behalf of the Violence Prevention Research Program at the University of California, Davis, which released the results on Tuesday.The group that said they would be willing to condone such violence amounted to 20.5 percent of those surveyed, with the majority of that group answering that “in general” the use of force was at least “sometimes justified” — the remaining 3 percent answered that such violence was “usually” or “always” justified.About 12 percent of survey respondents answered that they would be at least “somewhat willing” to resort to violence themselves to threaten or intimidate a person.And nearly 12 percent of respondents also thought it was at least “sometimes justified” to use violence if it meant returning Donald J. Trump to the presidency.Key Revelations From the Jan. 6 HearingsCard 1 of 8Making a case against Trump. More

    • 125 Shares119 Views

      in Elections

      Los votantes jóvenes están hartos de sus líderes (mucho) mayores

      by

      Representados por políticos que a menudo les triplican la edad, muchos votantes menores de 30 años en Estados Unidos están ansiosos de rostros e ideas nuevos.Alexandra Chadwick fue a las urnas en 2020 con un solo objetivo: sacar a Donald Trump. A sus 22 años, en su primera experiencia como votante, vio a Joe Biden más como salvaguardia que como una figura política inspiradora, era alguien capaz de contener las acciones que amenazaban el acceso al aborto, el control de armas y la política climática.Dos años después, la Corte Suprema ha erosionado las protecciones federales en estos tres temas, y la conclusión de Chadwick es que tanto Biden como otros líderes demócratas no tienen la imaginación y la voluntad necesarias para contratacar. El problema es la brecha generacional, que no le pareció tan importante en otro momento, pero que ahora le parece abismal.“¿Cómo puedes dirigir correctamente a tu país si tu mente está atascada en una época que ya pasó hace 50, 60 o 70 años?”, cuestionó Chadwick, quien trabaja en servicios al cliente en Rialto, California, en referencia al gran número de líderes septuagenarios que dirigen su partido. “No es lo mismo, y las personas no son iguales, así que tus ideas antiguas ya no van a funcionar”.Si bien hay electores de todas las edades que cuestionan el liderazgo político del país, el descontento de pocos grupos se percibe tan unánime como el de los jóvenes.Una encuesta de The New York Times y Siena College reveló que solo el uno por ciento de los jóvenes entre 18 y 29 años aprueba decididamente la manera en que Biden hace su trabajo. No solo eso, sino que el 94 por ciento de los demócratas menores de 30 años afirman que quieren que otro candidato se postule dentro de dos años. De todos los grupos de edad, una mayor proporción de electores jóvenes dijo que no votarían por Biden ni por Trump en el supuesto de que se enfrentaran de nuevo en 2024.Los números son una advertencia clara para los demócratas, que batallan para evitar una paliza en las elecciones intermedias de noviembre. Los jóvenes, que desde hace tiempo han sido la facción menos segura de la coalición del partido, marcharon a favor del control de armas, se congregaron para expresarse en contra de Trump y ayudaron a impulsar una oleada demócrata en las elecciones intermedias de 2018. Esos jóvenes todavía apoyan a los demócratas en temas que no dejan de ganar importancia.Pero cuatro años después, muchos se perciben indiferentes y desanimados; solo un 32 por ciento de ellos afirma que está “casi seguro” de votar en noviembre, según la encuesta. Casi la mitad cree que su voto no hizo ninguna diferencia.Algunas entrevistas con estos jóvenes revelan que las tensiones generacionales les causan frustración. Son electores que han alcanzado la edad adulta en un ambiente de enfrentamientos raciales, conflictos políticos, inflación elevada y una pandemia, y han tenido que recurrir a políticos que les triplican la edad en busca de ayuda.Con frecuencia, esos dirigentes mayores hablan de la defensa de las instituciones y la recuperación de normas, mientras que los electores jóvenes dicen que están más interesados en los resultados. Muchos comentaron que desean más cambios grandes, como un tercer partido viable y una nueva generación de líderes jóvenes. Señalan que ansían la implementación de medidas innovadoras para resolver los problemas que heredarán, en vez de regresar a lo que funcionó en el pasado.“Los miembros del Congreso, todos ellos, sin duda, han atravesado épocas muy traumáticas en su vida y de caos en el país”, explicó John Della Volpe, quien estudia las opiniones de los jóvenes en su calidad de director de encuestas en el Instituto de Política de la Escuela Harvard Kennedy. “Pero los miembros del Congreso también han visto a Estados Unidos en sus mejores épocas. En esos momentos nos unimos. Eso es algo que la generación Z no ha tenido”.A sus 79 años, Biden es el presidente más viejo en la historia de Estados Unidos y uno de los muchos dirigentes del Partido Demócrata que rondan los ochenta años o ya son octogenarios. Nancy Pelosi, presidenta de la Cámara de Representantes, tiene 82 años. El líder de la mayoría en la Cámara de Representantes, Steny Hoyer, tiene 83 años. Chuck Schumer, el líder de la mayoría en el Senado, de 71 años, es el bebé de la camada. Trump tiene 76 años.En una repetición de las elecciones de 2020, Biden obtendría una delantera del 38 al 30 por ciento entre los jóvenes, pero el 22 por ciento de los electores de entre 18 y 29 años afirmaron que no votarían si esos candidatos fueran las opciones, por mucho la mayor proporción de entre los diferentes rangos de edad.Para Ellis McCarthy, “ya sea Biden o Trump, nadie trata de ser una voz para las personas como yo”.Brian Kaiser para The New York TimesEsos votantes incluyen a Ellis McCarthy, de 24 años, que tiene algunos trabajos de medio tiempo en Bellevue, Kentucky. McCarthy dice que anhela un gobierno que sea “completamente nuevo”.El padre de McCarthy, electricista y miembro del sindicato que enseña en una escuela técnica local, conoció a Biden el verano pasado cuando el presidente visitó las instalaciones de capacitación. Los dos hombres hablaron sobre su sindicato y su trabajo, dos cosas que amaba. No mucho después, su padre se enfermó, fue hospitalizado y, después de su recuperación, quedó amargado por el sistema de atención médica y lo que su familia considera como el fracaso de las estrategias de Biden para arreglarlo.“Parece que ya sea Biden o Trump, nadie trata de ser una voz para las personas como yo”, dijo. “Los trabajadores se sienten abandonados”.Denange Sanchez, estudiante de 20 años en el Eastern Florida State College, de Palm Bay, Florida, opina que Biden es “insulso” en sus promesas.La madre de Sanchez es propietaria de una empresa de servicios domésticos de limpieza y se encarga de la mayor parte del trabajo de limpieza, con ayuda de Denange en lo posible. Toda su familia (incluida su madre, que padece una enfermedad del corazón y tiene un marcapasos) ha batallado con brotes de COVID-19 sin seguro médico. Incluso cuando estaba enferma, su madre estaba despierta a todas horas preparando remedios caseros, relató Sanchez.“Todos decían que íbamos a acabar con este virus. Biden hizo esas promesas. Pero ahora ya nadie toma en serio la pandemia, aunque todavía nos está rondando. Es de lo más frustrante”, se quejó. Sanchez, que estudia medicina, también incluyó la eliminación de la deuda estudiantil en la lista de promesas que Biden no ha cumplido.Los políticos y encuestadores demócratas son muy conscientes del problema que enfrentan con los votantes jóvenes, pero insisten en que hay tiempo para involucrarlos en los temas que les interesan. Las recientes decisiones de la Corte Suprema que eliminan el derecho constitucional al aborto, limitan la capacidad de los estados para controlar el porte de armas de fuego y recortan los poderes regulatorios del gobierno federal sobre las emisiones que contribuyen al calentamiento climático recién ahora están comenzando a arraigarse en la conciencia de los votantes, dijo Jefrey Pollock, encuestador de los demócratas de la Cámara de Representantes.“Ya no estamos hablando de una teoría; estamos hablando de una Corte Suprema que está haciendo retroceder al país 50 años o más”, dijo. “Si no podemos transmitir ese mensaje, entonces deberíamos avergonzarnos”.En contraste con los electores maduros, que en general identificaron a la economía como uno de sus principales intereses, para los votantes jóvenes solo es un tema más, relacionado en cierta medida con el aborto, el estado de la democracia estadounidense y las políticas aplicables a las armas.Eso pone en un dilema a los candidatos demócratas de distritos en los que las elecciones serán muy reñidas, muchos de los cuales creen que su mensaje para las elecciones debería concentrarse casi por completo en la economía, pero eso podría costarles el grupo vigorizante de los jóvenes.Tate Sutter dice que está frustrado por la inacción sobre el cambio climático.Rozette Rago para The New York TimesTate Sutter, de 21 años, siente esa total falta de conexión. Originario de Auburn, California, e inscrito en el Middlebury College en Vermont, Sutter relató que cuando vio los fuegos artificiales del Cuatro de Julio sintió escalofríos por todo el cuerpo, pues pronto iniciará la temporada de incendios y el plan enérgico del gobierno federal para combatir el calentamiento global sigue estancado en el Congreso. Contó que no tenía ninguna duda de que podía ver un incendio incipiente en las colinas del sur.“El clima es un tema muy importante en mi perspectiva política”, comentó, consternado porque los demócratas no hablan mucho del tema. “Es muy frustrante”.Sutter dijo que entendía los límites de los poderes de Biden con un Senado dividido. Pero también dijo que entiende el poder de la presidencia y no que Biden lo ejerza de manera efectiva.“Con la edad ganas mucha experiencia y sabiduría y aprendes cómo haces las cosas. Pero, en cuanto a la percepción, parece estar desconectado de la gente de mi generación”, dijo.Después de años de sentir que los políticos no se dirigen a personas como él, Juan Flores, de 23 años, dijo que ha decidido concentrar su atención en iniciativas locales sometidas a votación relacionadas con problemas como la indigencia o la falta de vivienda, pues considera que es más probable que tengan cierto impacto en su vida. Flores cursó estudios de análisis de datos, pero conduce un camión de entregas para Amazon en San José, California. En esa zona, el precio promedio de las casas supera el millón de dólares, por lo que es muy difícil (prácticamente imposible) que los residentes sobrevivan con un solo ingreso.“Me parece que muchos políticos vienen de familias acomodadas”, mencionó. “La mayoría de ellos no comprende en realidad todo lo que vivimos la mayoría de los ciudadanos estadounidenses”.La encuesta Times/Siena College descubrió que el 46 por ciento de los electores jóvenes prefieren que los demócratas controlen el Congreso, mientras que el 28 por ciento quiere que los republicanos lo hagan. Más de uno de cada cuatro jóvenes, el 26 por ciento, no sabe o no quiere decir qué partido prefiere que controle el Congreso.Iván Chávez planea participar en las elecciones de noviembre, pero aún no sabe por cuál candidato votará.Ramsay de Give para The New York TimesIvan Chavez, de 25 años y originario de Bernalillo, Nuevo México, externó que se identifica como independiente en parte porque ninguno de los partidos ha presentado argumentos convincentes para las personas de su edad. Le preocupan los asesinatos masivos, la crisis de salud mental que viven los jóvenes y el cambio climático.Le gustaría que los candidatos del tercer partido recibieran más atención. Planea votar en noviembre, pero no sabe con certeza a quién apoyará.“Creo que los demócratas tienen miedo de los republicanos en este momento, y los republicanos les tienen miedo a los demócratas”, aseveró. “No saben para dónde ir”.Los votantes republicanos jóvenes son los menos propensos a decir que quieren que Trump sea el candidato del partido en 2024, pero Kyle Holcomb, de 23 años y recién graduado de la universidad de Florida, dijo que votaría por él si fuera necesario.“Literalmente, si alguien más que no sea Biden se postulara, me sentiría más cómodo”, dijo. “Simplemente me gusta la idea de tener a alguien en el poder que pueda proyectar su visión y metas de manera efectiva”.Kyle Holcomb se ha enfadado con Donald Trump pero votará por él si se postula.Zack Wittman para The New York TimesLos jóvenes demócratas dijeron que buscaban lo mismo de sus líderes: visión, dinamismo y tal vez un poco de juventud, pero no demasiado. Varios votantes jóvenes mencionaron a la representante Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, una demócrata de Nueva York de 32 años. Chadwick elogió su juventud y disposición para hablar, a menudo en contra de sus colegas mayores en el Congreso, y resumió su atractivo en una palabra: “proximidad”.Michael C. Bender More

    • 88 Shares129 Views

      in Elections

      2022 Midterms Poll: Roundup of Key Insights

      by

      A summary of the findings includes deep dissatisfaction among voters and potential fertile ground for new candidates in 2024.Which side has the most energy heading into November? More polls will come as the midterm elections near, but for now we’ve wrapped up our first New York Times/Siena survey, and here are some notable takeaways:Voters are not happy. Just 13 percent of registered voters said America was heading in the right direction. Only 10 percent said the economy was excellent or good. And a majority of voters said the nation was too politically divided to solve its challenges. As a point of comparison, each of these figures shows a more pessimistic electorate than in October 2020, when the pandemic was still raging and Donald J. Trump was president.Joe Biden is in trouble. His approval rating in our poll was in the low 30s. That’s lower than we ever found for Mr. Trump.Democrats would rather see someone else get the party’s nomination in 2024. Mr. Biden’s age was as much of an issue among voters as his overall job performance. Of course, he probably would have trailed “someone else” ahead of the last presidential primary as well, but he still won the nomination because his opposition was weak or fractured. Still, it’s a sign that Mr. Biden is much weaker than the typical president seeking re-election. It could augur a contested primary.Democrats’ Reasons for a Different CandidateWhat’s the most important reason you would prefer someone other than Joe Biden to be the Democratic Party’s 2024 presidential nominee?

      Asked of 191 respondents who said they planned to vote in the 2024 Democratic primary and who preferred a candidate other than Joe Biden in a New York Times/Siena College poll from July 5-7, 2022.By The New York TimesTrump isn’t doing great, either. Like Mr. Biden, Mr. Trump has become less popular over the last two years. The number of Republicans who hold an unfavorable view of him has doubled since our final polling in 2020. He’s now under 50 percent in a hypothetical 2024 Republican primary matchup.Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida is already at 25 percent in an early test of the Republican primary. Mr. Trump may still be the front-runner, but the polls increasingly look more like the early surveys from the Democratic primary in 2008 — when Hillary Clinton found herself in an extremely close race and ultimately lost to Barack Obama — than the polls ahead of the Democratic primary in 2016, when she won a protracted battle against Bernie Sanders.Many voters do not want to see a 2020 rematch. Mr. Biden still led Mr. Trump in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, 44 percent to 41 percent. What was surprising: Ten percent of respondents volunteered that they would not vote at all or would vote for someone else if those were the two candidates, even though the interviewer didn’t offer those choices as an option.The midterm race starts out close, with voters nearly evenly divided on the generic congressional ballot (voters are asked whether they prefer Democrats or Republicans to be in control of Congress). That’s a little surprising, given expectations of a Republican landslide this year. More

    • 188 Shares179 Views

      in Elections

      Beto O’Rourke broke a Texas fund-raising record with a $27.6 million haul, his campaign said.

      by

      Beto O’Rourke set a new Texas fund-raising record for state office with a $27.6 million haul over four months in the governor’s race, his campaign announced on Friday, saying that it had outpaced Gov. Greg Abbott, the Republican incumbent, in the tightening contest.But the campaign of Mr. Abbott, who still holds a cash-on-hand advantage over Mr. O’Rourke, reported that he had raised nearly $25 million during the same period ending in June.Mr. O’Rourke’s campaign received over a half-million donations at the same time that he was staunchly critical of gun control laws in Texas after a mass shooting in May at an elementary school in Uvalde, and after the state imposed restrictions on abortions last month.Both issues have boosted the national profile of Mr. O’Rourke, a Democrat and former congressman who ran unsuccessfully for the Senate in 2018 and later for president.Mr. O’Rourke received widespread attention in May when he interrupted a news conference held by Mr. Abbott in Uvalde after an 18-year-old gunman armed with an AR-15-style rifle killed 19 children and two teachers at an elementary school. Mr. O’Rourke, who supports banning assault weapons, accused Mr. Abbott of “doing nothing” to prevent gun violence before Mr. Abbott’s allies told Mr. O’Rourke to “shut up” and said that he was an “embarrassment.”Two recent polls — one conducted by the University of Houston and one by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas in Austin — had Mr. O’Rourke within five and within six percentage points of Mr. Abbott.“We’re receiving support from people in every part of Texas,” Mr. O’Rourke said in a statement and pointed to “keeping our kids safe” and “protecting a woman’s freedom to make her own decisions about her own body, health care and future” as significant concerns.Gardner Pate, who is Mr. Abbott’s campaign chairman, said in a statement that Mr. Abbott’s re-election effort was well positioned, with nearly $46 million in cash on hand as of the end of June and having raised nearly $68 million since last June.“Our campaign has also pre-purchased more than $20 million in advertising for the fall, and begun funding an extensive block-walking program to get voters to the polls this November,” Mr. Pate said.Mr. O’Rourke’s campaign did not disclose how much cash on hand it had through June, but a February filing showed that he had nearly $6.8 million.Official campaign finance reports for Mr. O’Rourke and Mr. Abbott, due on Friday to the Texas Ethics Commission, have not yet been posted. It was not immediately clear who held the previous Texas fund-raising record for state office. More