Presidential Election of 2024

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      Fears of Civil Unrest Stalk the Markets

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      Wall Street advisers say investors are increasingly anxious about the possibility of election-related violence.Wall Street strategists say their meetings with portfolio managers have taken a dark turn lately. All but gone are investors’ fears of a hard landing, replaced by a deeper anxiety that things could go very badly around Election Day.Investors are not just concerned about their investment portfolios or retirement funds. They’re worried about democracy. As in … will it hold up if the result of the election between Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is contested?“The general consensus is that, one, it will take time to find the winner — so we might have to wait for weeks until the many contests and court challenges have played out,” Joachim Klement, the head of investment strategy at the investment bank Liberum, told DealBook. “And two, no matter who wins, there will be civil unrest.”Klement spoke with DealBook shortly after wrapping up a multicity investor roadshow. He said investors were worried about violence: Intelligence agencies have issued bulletins warning of possible election-related violence, and voters, too, are on high alert, some polls show.Investor pessimism may reflect the race’s increasingly negative tone. One of Trump’s former chiefs of staff said Trump met the definition of a fascist. And Harris called him a “petty tyrant.”In turn, Trump punctuates his rallies with a litany of grievances and has made ominous threats to deploy the military against “radical left lunatics” and “the enemies from within.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      No, Vote Spikes on Election Night Do Not Indicate Voter Fraud

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      The false claimVote totals appear to suddenly surge on election night, sometimes benefiting just one candidate. Some people on social media have falsely claimed that this proves fraudulent votes were counted.Why it is falseSudden increases in vote totals are a normal part of how election results are reported to the public on election night.All real-time election feeds, including those used by The New York Times, rely on unofficial data that companies or news organizations collect from precincts, counties or states. Those sources often update slowly, as votes are counted and reported. But sometimes, election officials release a larger tally of votes all at once, like when a large batch of early or mail-in ballots are reported.States and counties have different procedures for how votes are counted. In some places, mail-in and early ballots are counted first, while in other places they are counted last or in the middle. Since mail-in ballots have historically been used more by Democratic voters than by Republicans, the timing of when those votes are counted — and reported — can change who is leading the race at any given time, leading to a surge in the tabulated vote for one candidate. That happened in 2020, when votes for Joseph R. Biden Jr., then the Democratic nominee, were reported overnight as many Trump supporters were asleep.These vote surges happen in every election and can benefit any candidate.How the falsehoods are being usedA popular claim from the 2020 election showed Mr. Biden suddenly surging past Donald J. Trump, then the president, in Wisconsin. One chart, originally created by the elections data website FiveThirtyEight, used accurate data, but was held up as evidence of voter fraud.The chart reflected a quirk in how data was reported and who benefited in the moment. At around 4 a.m. the day after the election, as votes were still being counted, more than 170,000 absentee votes were reported from the city of Milwaukee — which leans heavily Democratic. Both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump gained votes at the time, but Mr. Biden gained much more. More

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      Uncertainty Reigns in Nevada With Rise of Nonpartisan Voters

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      With early voting coming to a close, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris must now ensure their respective bases show up on Election Day, while chasing down those whose choice is less clear.As early voting came to a close in Nevada, many of the state’s most veteran pollsters, pundits and political operatives — no strangers to close elections and their accompanying jitters — are finding it uniquely difficult to predict what happens next.Republicans, thrilled with their surprise early voting edge, say they are well on their way to making former President Donald J. Trump the first Republican to win the state since 2004. Democrats agree that Republicans have seized an unusual and anxiety-inducing advantage, but insist that their prized organizing machine will put Vice President Kamala Harris over the top.But what’s making this presidential election different is the sheer number of voters who don’t officially identify with either party. Thanks to the state’s relatively new automatic voter registration law, nonpartisan voters became Nevada’s largest voting bloc in 2022, outpacing both Democratic and Republican registrations.Figuring out who those voters are, and how or if they will cast a ballot, has been a crucial challenge for the campaigns scrambling to find and sway those last few persuadable people. Changes in voting patterns wrought by the pandemic four years ago are also throwing prognosticators for a loop.“The Achilles’ heel of early vote analysis is that it’s really difficult to make cycle-to-cycle comparisons,” said Adam Jentleson, who was a senior aide to Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the longtime Democratic leader, “and that has never been more true than in this cycle.”All of those factors combined mean “you are flying blind,” he added.The race is tied, according to The New York Times’s polling average. Both Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris have visited Nevada multiple times, emphasizing that every ballot will make a difference.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      As Election Nears, Republicans Blame Child’s Rape on Immigration Crisis

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      Wilson Castillo Diaz was arrested in New York in connection with the rape of a 5-year-old girl. On Friday, local Republicans blamed Democratic immigration policies.A Long Island man who was charged with raping a 5-year-old girl last month was in the country illegally, the police said Friday as local Republican officials sought to connect the disturbing case to the bitter debate over immigration just days before the presidential vote.The man, Wilson Castillo Diaz, 27, is a Honduran migrant who crossed into the United States via the Rio Grande Valley in 2014 before Border Patrol agents detained him, the police said. Mr. Castillo Diaz skipped an immigration hearing and was last living in Westbury, N.Y., the authorities said.Mr. Castillo Diaz was arrested on Oct. 22, but local officials did not publicize the case until Friday, days before the end of an election season in which immigration has played a central role.Former President Donald J. Trump has sought to stir nativist sentiment from the campaign trail, and the large influx of migrants in New York City has stoked fears of a surge in crime, though that largely has not been reflected by crime statistics.At a news conference on Friday, Bruce Blakeman, the Nassau County Executive, said that the arrest of Mr. Castillo Diaz was the latest “illustration and evidence” of why authorities in his county closely watch for undocumented migrants.Mr. Blakeman, a Republican, said that the police waited more than a week to announce the arrest in order to protect the identities of the victim and her family.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Nicolle Wallace Calls on George W. Bush to Denounce Trump

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      Nicolle Wallace, who was a White House communications director in George W. Bush’s administration, called on Friday for Mr. Bush to have a late-hour “change of heart” and speak out against former President Donald J. Trump.Speaking on her “Deadline: White House” program on MSNBC, Ms. Wallace said Mr. Trump’s violent language about former Representative Liz Cheney had pushed her to publicly raise the question she gets “asked more than any other” off the set: “Where is George W. Bush?”Ms. Cheney, a former congresswoman from Wyoming, has emerged as one of Mr. Trump’s most prominent Republican critics, and she has campaigned extensively for his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris. Her father, Dick Cheney, who served as Mr. Bush’s vice president, has also said he would vote for Ms. Harris.On Thursday, Mr. Trump criticized Ms. Cheney for her hawkish foreign policy views and said she should be put on a battlefield “with nine barrels shooting at her” — a remark that drew condemnations from a number of leaders. On her program, Ms. Wallace seemed to be imploring her former boss to join that group.“These are the comments we’re talking about right now in the United States of America from someone running to hold the job he had,” Ms. Wallace said.Mr. Bush’s daughter Barbara also supports Ms. Harris and has knocked on doors for her in Pennsylvania.But Mr. Bush has ruled out endorsing in the presidential race, according to his office. Ms. Wallace said she hoped both Mr. Trump’s recent violent language and the endorsement of Ms. Harris by Mr. Bush’s daughter might sway him.“We have a right to hope that those who have stood for freedom and celebrated those who have protected it might have a last-minute change of heart in the closing hours of this campaign,” Ms. Wallace said on her program.Ms. Wallace said she had appealed directly to Mr. Bush’s office, and had been told that the former president would continue his silence. But she said that it felt “important” to make her appeal, and then showed a series of decades-old videos of Mr. Bush speaking about freedom.A spokesman for Mr. Bush, Freddy Ford, said on Friday that Mr. Bush had no comment on Ms. Wallace’s plea. Last month, Mr. Ford said in an email that Mr. Bush “retired from presidential politics many years ago” and would not endorse in the presidential race.Ms. Wallace said she was delivering her call in the spirit of a lesson Mr. Bush had imparted to her: “Leave everything I know how to do in service of our democracy and freedoms — the things he taught us to cherish — on the field.”In an interview last week with David Remnick, the editor of The New Yorker, Ms. Cheney said she could not “explain why George W. Bush hasn’t spoken out.”“But I think it’s time,” Ms. Cheney said. “And I wish that he would.” More

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      Trump Still Can’t Stop Talking About Women

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      The countdown to the election feels like an Advent calendar with a dubious remark behind each door.Vice President Kamala Harris almost never talks about what it would mean to elect a female president, nor does she speculate about why women disproportionately support her candidacy.Former President Donald Trump is talking plenty.In the past two days, he has vowed to be a protector of women “whether they like it or not.” He said that if he won the presidential election, he would want Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a man who is a vaccine skeptic, to work on “health and women’s health.” And, speaking with Tucker Carlson last night in Glendale, Ariz., Trump imagined a supremely violent fate for Liz Cheney, the Republican former congresswoman who has become a prominent surrogate for Harris.“She’s a radical war hawk,” Trump said. “Let’s put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her, OK? Let’s see how she feels about it. You know, when the guns are trained on her face.”The remark was graphic even by the standards of Trump, who has always seen provocation as a feature, not a bug, of his political style. And it fed right into Democrats’ efforts to frame the election — the first presidential contest since the fall of Roe v. Wade — as a reckoning over bigger questions of freedom, control and women’s fundamental place in society.“Anyone who wants to be president of the United States who uses that kind of violent rhetoric is clearly disqualified, and unqualified, to be president,” Harris said today on the tarmac in Madison, Wis.Trump’s defenders say he was simply making a statement about Cheney’s past support for American involvement in overseas conflicts. But the episode seemed like yet another gift from Trump and his allies to Democrats — making the final countdown to the election feel like an Advent calendar with a sexist, violent or otherwise politically dubious remark behind each door.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      5 of America’s Strangest Polling Places

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      Grab a snack, do your laundry and cast a ballot.This article is part of A Kid’s Guide to the Election, a collection of stories about the 2024 presidential election for readers ages 8 to 14, written and produced by The New York Times for Kids. This section is published in The Times’s print edition on the last Sunday of every month.Every Election Day, millions of adults line up to vote at schools, community centers, libraries and other public buildings. But sometimes election officials don’t have enough places. To make sure everyone is able to get to a polling location that’s convenient, officials have to get creative, asking local business owners to lend space. Here are five unusual spots where Americans will pick the next president.Wash, Dry, Fold, VoteThe City of Chicago doesn’t own a building in the neighborhood of Chicago Lawn, so Wash Smart Laundry is helping out by tucking polling booths among the washers and dryers. It’s making it easier for people in the area to cast their ballots. And it has been good for business, too, says Andrea Castillo, the manager. New customers have been coming in after hearing that they can do their laundry and their civic duty at the same time. But occasionally they get a little confused: When they’re asked to show their ID to vote, some people accidentally show their laundry card instead.Presidents and PastriesDuring the 2020 election, early in the pandemic, San Francisco officials wanted to spread out polling stations to reduce crowds. So they asked La Boulangerie, a cafe and bakery, to donate space, and things worked out so well that the place decided to keep doing it. This will be the third time half the cafe is emptied out to squeeze in six voting booths. Jennifer Cusguen, a manager, says the staff likes helping the community by making it easier to vote. And they’ve learned an important lesson: Voters love almond croissants. This year, they’ll stock extras so they don’t sell out again.Tomi UmWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Tips on Discussing Politics With Family

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      When families disagree on candidates, kids can get caught in the middle.This article is part of A Kid’s Guide to the Election, a collection of stories about the 2024 presidential election for readers ages 8 to 14, written and produced by The New York Times for Kids. This section is published in The Times’s print edition on the last Sunday of every month.There’s one topic that Charlotte K.’s brother and dad simply cannot get along about these days: politics. Her family will sit down to dinner, someone will bring up a touchy political subject and suddenly they’re arguing. “It’s just like, ‘Oh, there they go,’” says Charlotte, 12, who’s from Hamburg, N.Y. “It makes me want to leave dinner kind of early so I can read or whatever.”Sound familiar? Yeah, it’s pretty common. In a 2022 poll, nearly one in five American voters said disagreements about politics hurt their relationships with friends or family. And things can get even more tense during a presidential election year, when it seems like that’s all anyone’s talking about. “We take very seriously how our political decisions affect our lives,” says Elan C. Hope, a researcher who studies young people, health and politics. When people support different candidates, it can sometimes feel as if they disagree with bigger parts of one another’s lives.To keep the peace, some families avoid political subjects entirely. Alayna W., 17, from Boise, Idaho, says her family doesn’t go near politics after years of division between her grandma (who supports Donald Trump) and her parents (who don’t). The pandemic felt like the last straw, when her family couldn’t agree on how to stay healthy. “It was weird and uncomfortable and awkward,” she says. “It was definitely a turning point in our family.”These types of disagreements can actually make families feel less close, according to Colleen Warner, a professor of communication. You may feel powerless and disconnected from the people you love the most. But if that’s the case, there are a few things you can do to help bring everyone together again. For starters, try bringing up a political opinion you do all agree on. It sounds corny, but if you’re caught in the middle of a divided family, it can help.Sometimes, Warner says, the best way to prevent political conversations from getting heated is to try listening and asking questions — before anyone jumps in with a counterpoint. Hannah F., 10, from Mint Hill, N.C., knew her grandparents supported Trump, unlike her parents. So Hannah asked them: Why? “I wanted to know a few reasons,” she says, and also to explain some of her own ideas. Family members won’t change their minds overnight. But asking questions helps everyone feel more respected. And by listening to other people’s ideas, you might just figure out where you stand on important issues, too. More