Presidential Election of 2024

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      Major G.O.P. Donor’s Commitment to DeSantis Is Murkier Than Thought

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      The hedge fund billionaire Kenneth Griffin, who seemed set to be a powerful financial backer of the Florida governor, is said to still be evaluating the Republican primary race.Nearly six months ago, Kenneth Griffin, the Republican megadonor and hedge fund executive, seemed poised to be a powerful financial backer of Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida in his anticipated run for president.Mr. Griffin had given $5 million to Mr. DeSantis’s re-election effort, and he told Politico that while Mr. DeSantis was not yet a White House candidate, “he has a tremendous record as governor of Florida, and our country would be well served by him as president.”These days, Mr. Griffin is keeping his cards closer to the vest, and his intentions are harder to discern. A person familiar with his thinking, noting that Mr. DeSantis had not yet made his run official, said Mr. Griffin was still evaluating the Republican primary race as it unfolded.The financier and Mr. DeSantis met in Florida in the last two weeks, according to two people with knowledge of the meeting, which came as Mr. Griffin has taken issue in private conversations with some of Mr. DeSantis’s policy moves and pronouncements. In particular, the two people said, Mr. Griffin was deeply troubled by Mr. DeSantis’s statements that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a “territorial dispute” — a remark he later tried to clarify — and that the war was not a vital U.S. interest.Mr. Griffin, who has made clear that he wants to move on from former President Donald J. Trump, was also disconcerted by a six-week abortion ban in Florida that Mr. DeSantis recently signed, according to the people familiar with Mr. Griffin’s thinking, who insisted on anonymity to discuss private conversations. Last year, Mr. Griffin moved his hedge fund, Citadel, to Miami from Chicago, citing crime concerns.The meeting between the governor and Mr. Griffin was, for the most part, one on one, without staff members, one of the people briefed on it said, and it was one of their few direct interactions. Reading Mr. Griffin’s intentions after the meeting has been difficult for some people close to him.One person predicted the financier was still likely to donate to Mr. DeSantis once he made his candidacy official, which could happen as early as next month. But the person said Mr. Griffin might also give to other candidates who seemed able to defeat Mr. Trump.In a statement, Zia Ahmed, a spokesman for Mr. Griffin, ticked off Mr. DeSantis’s “many accomplishments” and mentioned job creation, “increasing the number of quality school options, and prioritizing the safety of our communities.”He went on, “Ken may not agree with all of the governor’s policies, but he appreciates all that the governor has done to make Florida one of the most attractive states to live and work in America.”Kenneth Griffin has made clear that he would like the Republican Party to move beyond former President Donald J. Trump.Mike Blake/ReutersBut Mr. Ahmed declined to address what Mr. Griffin thought about the presidential race. A spokesman for Mr. DeSantis declined to comment.What Mr. Griffin does is being closely watched, after word spread of his unhappiness about how Mr. DeSantis had comported himself early this year.Mr. DeSantis’s supporters say there is still a broad appetite — in the donor community and among prospective voters — for a viable Republican alternative to Mr. Trump.“The money has walked,” said Roy Bailey, a Dallas businessman and longtime Republican fund-raiser for Mr. Trump. “From my conversations with a lot of people from around the country, it has moved to DeSantis. It is a cold, hard fact.”Mr. Bailey disputed the idea that momentum had shifted away from Mr. DeSantis recently.In the first two weeks of May, Mr. DeSantis is set to host a series of small dinners with major donors and supporters from across the country at the governor’s mansion in Tallahassee, according to two people with knowledge of his plans.If Mr. DeSantis enters the presidential race as expected, he will be armed with a well-funded super PAC, Never Back Down, which said this month that it had raised $30 million in its first few weeks of fund-raising.Two-thirds of that money, $20 million, came from a single donor, the Nevada hotel magnate Robert Bigelow, Time magazine reported.In private conversations, Mr. DeSantis’s associates have indicated that they have $100 million in commitments to the super PAC, along with roughly $82 million in a Florida committee that will probably be transferred to Never Back Down.Still, some donors who had hoped Mr. DeSantis could stop Mr. Trump have cooled their enthusiasm.Thomas Peterffy, a prominent conservative donor, also cited Florida’s abortion law in explaining why he was withholding support from Mr. DeSantis for now. Mr. Peterffy had supported Mr. DeSantis in his state campaigns, and according to one person familiar with the event, hosted Mr. DeSantis at his house early in his first term as governor. But Mr. Peterffy told The Financial Times this month he was holding still, as were some friends.Some donors have also expressed concern about Mr. DeSantis’s pre-campaign strategy. When his allies made clear this year that he would not enter the race before the end of the legislative session in Florida, Mr. DeSantis effectively gave Mr. Trump three months to define him — and taunt him — before becoming a candidate. More

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      Trump Endorsed by Senator Daines of Montana, a Key Republican Fund-Raiser

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      Steve Daines of Montana, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, cited the former president’s accomplishments on issues like immigration.Former President Donald J. Trump has secured one of his most important Capitol Hill endorsements for a 2024 presidential bid: Senator Steve Daines of Montana, the chairman of the Senate Republicans’ campaign arm.While top Republicans in the Senate have been lukewarm about the prospects of another election cycle dominated by Mr. Trump, the endorsement gives him a foothold with a key party fund-raiser.“I’m proud to endorse Donald J. Trump for president of the United States,” Mr. Daines said during a Monday night appearance on “Triggered,” the podcast of Donald Trump Jr., the former president’s eldest son and an occasional hunting buddy for Mr. Daines.He added that the “best four years” he’d had in the Senate was when Mr. Trump was president. And Mr. Daines ticked off a list of accomplishments that he said Mr. Trump had recorded, on issues like immigration.“That’s absolutely awesome,” Mr. Trump Jr. replied.Mr. Trump has notched a string of congressional endorsements, but Mr. Daines, the chairman of the Senate campaign arm, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, has outsize influence. Mr. Daines is in constant contact with the wealthiest donors in Republican politics, who have been reluctant to support Mr. Trump, even as he asserts himself as the clear front-runner less than a year out from the primaries. If Mr. Daines vouches for the former president as he works the donor circuit, it may bolster what has been until now fairly lackluster fund-raising from the Trump campaign.Mr. Trump and Senator Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader, are not on speaking terms, and his supporter in the Senate with the most seniority was Lindsey Graham of South Carolina.Yet for Mr. Daines, the decision was a relatively safe move. With a closer relationship, Mr. Trump could support the Senate candidates backed by Mr. Daines’s committee — or at least avoid attacking the committee’s preferred candidates. Mr. Daines’s relationship with Mr. Trump Jr. is also seen as an important conduit between the Senate and the Trump operation.Mr. Daines and Mr. Trump Jr. began the interview bantering about their past hunting trips but Mr. Daines eventually spoke of how Republicans have a “once a decade” opportunity to pick up seats with a favorable map in 2024. If Republicans failed, he warned, they could remain in the minority “for the rest of the decade.” Before he endorsed Mr. Trump, during the interview, Mr. Daines talked about the power that strength at the top of the ticket could mean in the Senate races.Mr. Trump’s chief rival for the nomination, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, has faced some difficulty connecting with potential supporters as he works toward making his candidacy official. Both hopefuls have pushed for endorsements in Congress. While Mr. Trump has collected dozens, Mr. DeSantis, a former congressman, has secured just a handful. The people endorsing Mr. Trump have been quick to praise his personal touch.In the 2022 cycle, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, under the chairmanship of Senator Rick Scott, took a largely hands-off approach to the primaries. Mr. McConnell lamented the “candidate quality” of those who had emerged from primaries, and several Republicans aligned with Mr. Trump went on to lose key battlegrounds in November, including Don Bolduc in New Hampshire and Blake Masters in Arizona, both of whom party strategists had predicted would be weak nominees.Mr. Daines has taken a different approach. He has endorsed Representative Jim Banks for an open Senate seat in Indiana and has courted other candidates, including David McCormick, the former hedge fund executive who lost a Senate primary in Pennsylvania last year, to run again.Still, Senate Republicans are facing a gantlet of potential 2024 primaries, and the party leadership is worried that weak potential candidates could yet again hinder Republicans in November, including in Mr. Daines’s home state, Montana.In West Virginia, for instance, national Republicans have wooed Gov. Jim Justice, a billionaire former governor, to run against Senator Joe Manchin III, a Democrat who faces a tough re-election fight in a state that Mr. Trump won overwhelmingly in 2020. Mr. Justice is expected to enter the race on Thursday, but Representative Alex X. Mooney, who won a fierce Republican primary in 2022 with Mr. Trump’s endorsement, has already entered the contest.Other states that may feature thorny Republican primaries include Arizona, where the former television newscaster Kari Lake, who lost her 2022 bid for governor, may run for Senate in 2024, and Pennsylvania, where Doug Mastriano, who badly lost a 2022 governor’s race, is looking at a Senate run.“The primary is ours to walk away with,” Mr. Mastriano said in an interview on Monday with the conservative radio host John Fredericks. “We have the base. We are the base.”Mr. Mastriano is the type of nominee Mr. Daines is seeking to avoid. “His last race demonstrated he can’t win a general,” Mr. Daines said last month. More

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      Biden Finalizes 2024 Re-election Plans

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      The president’s mission will be to defend his record while warning about the dangers of Donald J. Trump’s return.WASHINGTON — President Biden is set to ask for another four years in office as soon as Tuesday, four years after declaring his 2020 candidacy in the hopes of preventing President Donald J. Trump from “forever and fundamentally” altering the character of the United States.People close to Mr. Biden expect him to announce his re-election bid in a video, much the way he entered the last campaign, when he used the same format to urge Americans to embrace a different vision for the country and to “remember who we are.”Mr. Biden’s mission will be more complicated the second time around, as he is forced to defend his record while warning about the dangers of Mr. Trump’s return. While the former president remains the front-runner for the Republican nomination, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida is also preparing for a likely bid.Within days of Mr. Biden’s expected announcement, some of his top donors have been invited to gather in Washington for a financial summit of sorts that will kick off a race against time to fill the president’s war chest. The meeting, expected to be on Friday, will be a necessary early step in a campaign process that will remain low-key for as long as a year.That will be quickly followed by Mr. Biden hiring a staff that can work outside the White House: a campaign manager, communication aides, state campaign directors, pollsters, finance managers, volunteers and more.Among those being considered to run the re-election campaign is Julie Chávez Rodriguez, a senior White House adviser and the granddaughter of Cesar Chavez, the American labor leader. But one person familiar with the president’s thinking said that as of Sunday afternoon, Mr. Biden had not made a final decision on who would run the campaign day to day.Julie Chávez Rodriguez in Las Vegas in 2019. She is among those being considered to run Mr. Biden’s re-election campaign.Bridget Bennett for The New York TimesRegardless of that choice, Mr. Biden’s kitchen cabinet of advisers is clear: The handful of people whom he has kept close throughout his first bid for the presidency and his time in office. That includes Mike Donilon, his top political adviser; Anita Dunn, his communications guru; Steve Ricchetti, his legislative adviser; Ron Klain, his former chief of staff; Jen O’Malley Dillon, who managed his first campaign and is now a deputy chief of staff in the White House; and Kate Bedingfield, his former communications director.That team is betting that Mr. Biden’s accomplishments will win him the votes to remain in the Oval Office. He will argue that he has restored prosperity despite lingering economic uncertainty and concerns about inflation. He will focus on the passage of legislation to pump billions of dollars into infrastructure, climate and health care. And he will take credit for restoring alliances abroad at a time of global tensions.The president will also seek to sharpen the differences with what he describes as an elitist, intolerant Republican Party that will threaten the progress his administration has made. As he begins to ramp up his campaign, he is hoping to demonstrate that the choice for voters is between a competent president and a return to the chaos Mr. Trump embraced.“When you’re a president running for re-election, you’re the obvious and fair target for anyone who’s disappointed not just by the amount of progress, but even the speed of that progress during your time in office,” Jen Psaki, Mr. Biden’s former press secretary, said on her MSNBC show on Sunday as she discussed the impending campaign announcement.“Running for the president the first time is aspirational. You can make all sorts of big, bold promises,” she said, predicting an “incredibly difficult” re-election campaign for Mr. Biden. “Running for re-election is when you actually get your report card from the American people.”That report card will include some low marks from voters that the president and his team will have to confront as they build a campaign operation that is likely to be run out of Wilmington, Del. — close to the president’s regular weekend getaway over the past two years.At 80 years old, Mr. Biden is the oldest president in American history, and polls suggest that even most Democrats are concerned about re-electing a commander in chief who would be 86 by the end of his second term.The president must also answer for his administration’s chaotic handling of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan after 20 years of war and the rapid inflation that has driven up costs of everything from groceries to gas, eating away at the economic fortunes of most middle-income Americans.But the people charged with delivering another win for Mr. Biden inside the White House and in the nascent campaign are determined to try to keep the focus on the alternative.The president has begun ramping up his anti-Trump rhetoric, accusing the Republican Party of embracing a “radical, MAGA agenda,” repeatedly using the acronym for the “Make America Great Again” slogan that Mr. Trump used throughout his 2016 campaign and during his presidency.Former President Donald J. Trump remains the front-runner for the Republican nomination.Todd Heisler/The New York TimesIn a speech last week at a union hall in Accokeek, Md., for Local 77 of the International Union of Operating Engineers, Mr. Biden used the MAGA label 21 times as he assailed a Republican proposal in Congress to cut spending on domestic programs by 22 percent.“The MAGA 22 percent cut undermines rail safety, food safety, border security, clean air, clean water,” the president told the small but friendly union audience. “It’s not hyperbole; it’s a fact.”People close to Mr. Biden said over the weekend that his decision to formally announce his candidacy would not immediately result in a significant shift in his actions or schedule.He is unlikely to begin campaign-style rallies for many months, said people with knowledge of his plans, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the president has not yet made his announcement. Instead, Mr. Biden will continue making the same kinds of policy-focused trips that he has for several months.Those trips — including speeches about declining unemployment, the environment, infrastructure improvements and child care — are intended to underscore his administration’s achievements since taking office in the middle of a pandemic-induced economic crisis. Aides have said the president intends to continue delivering those messages as often as possible.Mr. Biden will also continue to focus on the challenges of being president. Next month, he is scheduled to fly to Hiroshima, Japan, for a three-day summit with world leaders that will focus on the war in Ukraine and emerging competition from China and other hot spots around the world. He will then travel to Australia to mark a new agreement on nuclear submarines.When Mr. Biden returns to Washington, he faces a showdown with Speaker Kevin McCarthy over the need for Congress to raise the debt ceiling and avert an economic disaster. More

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      How Democrats Learned to Embrace Biden 2024

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      The president, who is expected to formally announce his re-election campaign this week, has won the full support of his party despite questions about his age and middling approval ratings.As President Biden nears the formal announcement of his 2024 re-election bid, one of the most important developments of the campaign is something that hasn’t happened at all: No serious primary challenger ever emerged.Mr. Biden has all but cleared the field despite concerns about his age — at 80, he is already the oldest American president in history — and the persistent misgivings about the president held by a large number of the party’s voters. Democrats yearn for a fresh face in 2024, according to repeated polls, they just don’t know who that would be.After Democrats won more races than expected in the 2022 midterm elections, any energy to challenge Mr. Biden quickly dissipated. The left has stayed in line even as Mr. Biden has lately made more explicit appeals toward the center. And would-be rivals have stayed on the sidelines.The early entry of Donald J. Trump into the race immediately clarified that the stakes in 2024 would be just as high for Democrats as they were in 2020. The former president has proved to be the greatest unifying force in Democratic politics in the last decade, and the same factors that caused the party to rally behind Mr. Biden then are still present today. Add to that the advantages of holding the White House and any challenge seemed more destined to bruise Mr. Biden than to best him.Plans are now in place for Mr. Biden to formally begin a 2024 campaign as early as Tuesday with a low-key video timed with the anniversary of his campaign kickoff four years ago. It is a rollout that many Democrats are greeting more with a sense of stoicism than enthusiasm.“We need stability,” said Representative Jamaal Bowman of New York, a progressive who won his seat in 2020 by ousting an older, more moderate incumbent in a primary. “Biden provides that.”“We need stability,” Representative Jamaal Bowman said.Kenny Holston/The New York TimesSkating to a second nomination was not always guaranteed. Mr. Biden, as the incumbent president, was obviously the prohibitive favorite. But people close to the White House have been surprised at the speed with which the full spectrum of the party has gone from hand-wringing about Mr. Biden to almost unanimous acclamation, at least in public.Maria Cardona, a Democratic National Committee member and party strategist, has been confounded by the doubts around Mr. Biden as the Democrats’ best bet, especially against a 76-year-old Mr. Trump, who remains the Republican front-runner.“Regardless of the reservations, regardless of the worry that he is getting up there in age — and he is, and that is going to be a question that he and the campaign are going to have to contend with — when his counterpart is almost as old as he is but is so opposite of what this country deserves, then it’s a no-brainer,” she said.For now, the only announced challengers to Mr. Biden are Marianne Williamson, whose last run amounted to an asterisk in the 2020 campaign, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is leveraging his family name to promote his anti-vaccine views.“Democrats complain that he might be too old,” Ms. Cardona added. “But then, when they’re asked, ‘Well, who?’ There is no one else.”Prominent and ambitious governors, including Gavin Newsom of California and J.B. Pritzker of Illinois, made clear they would not contest Mr. Biden’s nomination, as did the runners-up from 2020. And many party insiders have soured on the political potential of the next-in-line option, Vice President Kamala Harris.Representative Raúl Grijalva, a former co-chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, said the left was laser-focused on “the fight against the isms: fascism, racism, sexism.” That has overshadowed Mr. Biden’s age, said the 75-year-old Mr. Grijalva: “I think why it hasn’t been a bigger issue is we don’t believe in ageism either.”“If we are eliminating people because of how old they are,” he said, “I don’t think that would be fair and equitable.”“If we are eliminating people because of how old they are,” said Representative Raúl Grijalva, “I don’t think that would be fair and equitable.” Rebecca Noble for The New York TimesMr. Biden’s poll numbers among Democrats remain middling. An NBC News poll this month said 70 percent of all Americans — including 51 percent of Democrats — felt that Mr. Biden should not run for a second term. If Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida wins the Republican nomination, the general election contest could be more difficult for Mr. Biden. Mr. DeSantis, 44, has been polling better than Mr. Trump in a hypothetical November matchup.Privately, some major Biden donors and fund-raisers continue to fret about his durability both in a campaign and a second term. Those who raised or donated $1 million or more in 2020 were invited to a private gathering this Friday with the president.One wealthy donor had considered circulating a letter this year to urge Mr. Biden not to run before the person was dissuaded by associates because it would have been for naught and have served to embarrass Mr. Biden, according to a person familiar with the episode who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe private conversations. Some contributors have described being in a state of suspended and suppressed angst: fully yet nervously behind Mr. Biden.Democrats generally and the White House in particular know well the modern history of presidential re-election campaigns and that nearly all the recent incumbents to lose faced serious primary challenges: George H.W. Bush in 1992, Jimmy Carter in 1980, Gerald Ford in 1976 and, before he withdrew and Democrats ultimately lost, Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968.Combine that pattern with the specter of a second Trump presidency and Democrats have snapped almost uniformly into a loyalist formation, especially after the party averted a red wave and the kind of losses last fall that many had predicted.“People recognized he was the one candidate who could defeat Donald Trump and protect American democracy,” Representative David Cicilline, a Rhode Island Democrat who was previously in the Democratic leadership, said of Mr. Biden’s nomination in 2020. “It’s still the case.”“People recognized he was the one candidate who could defeat Donald Trump and protect American democracy,” Representative David Cicilline said of Mr. Biden.Haiyun Jiang/The New York TimesMr. Biden further smoothed his pathway by pushing through the most substantive change in the Democratic primary calendar in decades. He pushed to shift the first-in-the-nation status on the nominating calendar from Iowa, an overwhelmingly white state with a progressive streak (where Mr. Biden finished in fourth place), to South Carolina, where Black voters resurrected his campaign in 2020.During his first two years, Mr. Biden built up considerable good will among progressives, embracing many of the left’s priorities, including canceling student loan debt, and keeping a far more open line of communication with the party’s left-most flank than the previous two Democratic administrations. He has signed landmark bills that have been progressive priorities, including climate provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act and a temporary child-tax credit.Some Biden advisers credit the unity task forces created after the 2020 primary as the key starting point. Liberal activists say Ron Klain, the former White House chief of staff, had an unusual open-door policy.“Bernie wasn’t calling up Rahm Emanuel in the early Obama years to talk policy,” said Ari Rabin-Havt, a former deputy chief of staff to Senator Bernie Sanders and a Democratic strategist. Of Mr. Biden, he said that most progressives on Capitol Hill would grade him with “an exceeds expectations check mark.”Now Mr. Biden is relying on the left’s residual appreciation as he tacks toward the center. He has talked about the need for deficit reduction in 2023, signed a Republican measure to overturn a progressive local Washington crime law and approved a new oil drilling project in Alaska.“I continue to be frustrated when I see him moving to the center because I don’t see a real need to do that,” said Mr. Bowman, the New York Democrat. “It’s almost like a pandering to a Republican talking point.”“Biden has been on a legislative tear, tackling Democratic priorities that had been unachieved for decades,” Representative Eric Swalwell said.Kenny Holston/The New York TimesIn 2020, Representative Eric Swalwell of California briefly ran for president in the Democratic primary and then urged Mr. Biden to “pass the torch” to the next generation. Four years later, Mr. Swalwell is all aboard for a second Biden term, saying the president’s ability to pass significant legislation has bound the party together.“I feared after the 2020 election that it would be impossible for Biden to govern with the thinnest of majorities in the House and Senate,” he said. “Instead, Biden has been on a legislative tear, tackling Democratic priorities that had been unachieved for decades.”Many Democrats see Mr. Biden as the party’s best chance to limit losses among white voters without college degrees — the nation’s biggest bloc of voters — a group that Mr. Trump has pulled away from the Democrats.“Blue-collar workers used to always be our folks,” Mr. Biden lamented to donors at a private residence on the Upper East Side of Manhattan in January, highlighting his focus on winning back those voters. “A lot of people think we left them behind,” Mr. Biden told the donors. “And it has to do more with attitude and — than it does with policy.”The relative Democratic success in the midterms — picking up a Senate seat and only ceding the House to Republicans by five seats — served as a reminder that despite his own weak polling numbers, Mr. Biden has not hurt his party so far.“Nothing,” Mr. Swalwell said, “unites like success.” More

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      Will Biden Face a Democratic Challenger?

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      Joe Biden’s path to renomination by the Democratic Party, a journey reportedly likely to begin officially sometime next week, will represent a triumph of one seeming implausibility over another.From the beginning of Biden’s presidency, every serious conversation about his re-election has started with the near-impossibility of imagining a man palpably too old for the office putting himself through the rigors of another presidential campaign, selling himself as a steady hand when his unsteadiness is so widely recognized even by his own coalition’s voters.Yet that impossibility then collides with the impossibility of figuring out how Biden might be eased aside (barring a medical emergency, he clearly can’t be) or discerning how any ambitious Democrat could be induced to challenge him.The dynamics that made Biden the nominee in the first place, his moderate branding and just-left-enough positioning, still protect him from a consolidated opposition on either flank. The younger rivals who challenged him in 2020, Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris, have been co-opted into his administration (where their brands aren’t exactly flourishing). Meanwhile the rising generation of Democratic governors — Gavin Newsom, Jared Polis, Gretchen Whitmer and Josh Shapiro — have positioned themselves (Newsom especially) for the post-Biden landscape, ready to step in only if he steps out.Biden has also avoided the kind of gambits and defeats that might leave a large constituency ready to revolt. (Build Back Better diminished into the Inflation Reduction Act, but it eventually passed; our involvement in Ukraine has satisfied liberal hawks while stopping short of the direct conflict with Russia that might make the antiwar left bestir itself.) And he’s benefited from the way that polarization and anti-Trumpism has delivered a more unified liberalism, suffused by a trust-the-establishment spirit that makes the idea of a primary challenge seem not just dangerous but disreputable.None of this eliminates the difficulty of imagining his campaign for four more years. But it’s outstripped by the difficulty of seeing how any serious and respectable force inside the Democratic Party could be organized to stop it.However, as the Trump era has taught us, the serious and the respectable aren’t the only forces in American politics; disreputability has potency as well. Right now there’s no clear opening for a major rival like Newsom to replace Biden as the Democratic nominee. But with the president’s numbers consistently lousy, with a clear plurality of Democrats preferring that the president doesn’t run again, and with Biden scuffling in New Hampshire polling (he trailed Buttigieg in a January survey and led a more recent poll, but with only 34 percent), there is room for somebody with less to lose to try to run the same play as Eugene McCarthy in 1968 or Pat Buchanan in 1992 or for that matter Bernie Sanders in 2016 — to offer themselves as a protest candidate, to either channel hidden grievances or discover, through their campaign, what those grievances might be.Right now the only major figure auditioning for that role is Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the noted anti-vaccine activist who opened his own campaign in Boston earlier this week. He’s an interesting test case, because while he’s way outside the current liberal mainstream, his name trades on a distinctive kind of older-Democrat nostalgia, while his anti-corporate crankishness speaks to a tendency that used to be powerful on the left, before Trumpism absorbed a lot of paranoid energy and conspiracism.This makes it possible to imagine him discovering a real constituency of Democrats who aren’t fully happy being part of the coalition that valorizes official expertise, who blend holistic views on medicine with doubts about the mainstream narrative on — well, the Kennedy assassinations for a start (though he will have to compete for some of these voters with Marianne Williamson, whose hat is also in the ring again).At the same time his reputation as a conspiracist makes R.F.K. Jr. a poor vehicle for Democrats who might want to cast an anti-Biden vote without making an anti-vaccine statement. So it should be relatively easy for the party to establish a cordon sanitaire around his candidacy, such that 10 percent of the vote is possible but 30 percent is unimaginable.It’s that 30 percent threshold, broken by McCarthy and Buchanan in the New Hampshire primary, that would create actual problems for Biden were it breached. I suspect there’s enough discontent based on age and fitness issues alone for such a breach to happen. But is there anyone closer to the mainstream than R.F.K. Jr. who wants to create those problems, raising their profile at the risk of catching blame for a Trump or Ron DeSantis presidency?Ideally a column like this would end by identifying just that person, in a prophetic flourish. But since I don’t have a candidate ready at hand, maybe Biden can breathe easy — with all the impediments of age overcome, once again, by the absence of any credible alternative.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: [email protected] The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTOpinion) and Instagram. More

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      Tim Scott Faces Long Odds

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      Last week, Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina announced on “Fox and Friends” that he was forming an exploratory committee for the 2024 presidential election.“I have found that people are starving for hope,” he said. “They’re starving for an optimistic, positive message that is anchored in conservative values.”There wasn’t a lot of fanfare around the announcement, in part because Scott immediately fumbled the ball with a disastrously awkward answer on abortion, in which he refused to say whether he would support Senator Lindsey Graham’s proposed 15-week federal abortion ban. There’s also the simple fact that Donald Trump is almost certainly going to win the Republican nomination for president for a third time. Scott’s campaign, in other words, is doomed from the start.But just because it appears to be futile doesn’t mean it’s not interesting. Scott was appointed to the Senate in 2012 to fill the seat vacated by Senator Jim DeMint, who left to serve as president of the Heritage Foundation. Scott won a full term in 2016, becoming the first Black American elected to the Senate from the South since Reconstruction. He’s no moderate — he is, like his predecessor, a bona fide South Carolina reactionary — but he tempers his hard right politics with the cheerful affect of a happy warrior.Scott is obviously not the first Black person to vie for the Republican presidential nomination. That distinction goes to Frederick Douglass, who received one vote at the 1888 Republican convention. (The first Black person to receive any votes for national office at a major party’s nominating convention was Senator Blanche Bruce of Mississippi, who received eight votes for vice president at the 1880 convention in Chicago.) There is a short list of more recent contenders as well. Alan Keyes ran for the Republican nomination in 1996, 2000 and 2008; Herman Cain ran and withdrew in 2011; and Ben Carson ran in 2016.Tim Scott, however, would be the first Black Republican officeholder to run for the party’s presidential nomination, should he move past the exploratory phase. There’s no one else, as far as I can tell.Which makes sense. Beginning in the 1890s, Black Americans were systematically excluded from participation in two-party politics. Even the Black communities in the booming cities of the North lacked meaningful political clout. It was not until World War I and the beginning of the Great Migration that we saw a real rejuvenation of Black participation in electoral politics, because of the absence of Jim Crow voting restrictions in northern cities and the presence of political machines that were nothing if not opportunistic.Even then, there were few Black people elected to national office, with a total of eight serving between 1914 and 1965. And with the exception of Oscar Stanton De Priest — elected from Illinois’ First District, the South Side of Chicago, in 1928 — they were Democrats. And that fact speaks to how the collapse of the Republican Party in the South and the strength of Democratic machines in the urban North changed the partisan political calculus for Black Americans, setting the stage for the lasting affiliation with the Democratic Party that began to take shape under Franklin Roosevelt and the New Deal.(Still, there was a lasting affiliation among some Black voters with Republicans through the 1960s, as demonstrated by Richard Nixon’s attempt to capture a larger share of the Black vote in the 1960 presidential election, Jackie Robinson’s ill-fated presence at the 1964 Republican convention and the election of Senator Edward Brooke of Massachusetts in 1966.)By the time there were Black lawmakers with the presence and national platform to run for president, most Black voters were Democrats and the Republican Party had already begun its ideological migration to the white South and the Sunbelt. It’s no accident that the first Black American to run a national campaign for the Democratic nomination for president was Representative Shirley Chisholm of New York, and that the two most successful Black candidates for the Democratic nomination, Jesse Jackson and Barack Obama, came out of Chicago.It has essentially taken a century for someone like Tim Scott to emerge. And his political position reflects the conditions set by the structure of Black two-party politics in the 20th century. A modern-day Republican, Scott has few Black supporters and even fewer ties to the institutions of contemporary Black politics.Tim Scott, whatever you think of his political views, would be a sui generis figure. Or, if you prefer, an odd man out.What I WroteMy Tuesday column took another stab at the Thomas-Crow affair, this time from the perspective of elite impunity and legal double standards.The idea that Thomas will face any penalty, much less an official investigation by the Supreme Court, is obviously wish-casting. The politics of the court, the lack of any internal check on the court’s members and the general unwillingness of Congress to challenge the court’s power — or even scrutinize its affairs — mean Thomas can act with relative impunity. And even if he couldn’t, even if there were meaningful and politically feasible consequences for misconduct among members of the Supreme Court — impeachment is practically a dead letter — there’s the fact that the law is simply more forgiving of the rich and the powerful.My Friday column built off the idea of “one rule for some, another rule for others” with a look at how Republicans are pursuing a vision of “intrusive government” aimed at the most vulnerable members of our society.With or without Trump in control, the Republican Party has a clear, well-articulated agenda. It just falls outside the usual categories. It’s not that today’s Republicans have a vision for “big” government or “small” government; it’s that Republicans have a vision for intrusive government, aimed at the most vulnerable people in our society.Also, I was on “All In With Chris Hayes” on Thursday discussing gun violence and right-wing paranoia.Now ReadingGabriel Rosenberg and Jan Dutkiewicz on the meat industry for Vox.Matthew Sitman on the Jan. 6 report for Dissent magazine.Ilyse Hogue on the fight for abortion rights after Dobbs for Democracy.Julie Livingston and Andrew Ross on automobile debt for n+1 magazine.Madison Mainwaring on ballet for The New Republic.Photo of the WeekJamelle BouieThis is a fun truck done in the style of a character from the movie “Cars.” I saw it while driving through South Carolina over Christmas break. I took the photo on Kodak Gold film in medium format.Now Eating: Spinach, Tofu and Sesame Stir-FryAs always, the key to using tofu is to prep it beforehand by pressing as much water out of it as possible. I use a tofu press, but wrapping a block of tofu in a towel and placing a few heavy books on it works just as well. Also, I would go heavy on the garlic and ginger, but that’s my preference. A little more sesame oil would not hurt, either. Serve with steamed rice, white or brown, your choice. Recipe from New York Times Cooking.Ingredients1 tablespoon canola oil½ pound tofu, cut in small dice1 large garlic clove, minced1 teaspoon grated or minced fresh ginger¼ teaspoon red chili flakesSoy sauce to taste16-ounce bag baby spinach, rinsed2 tablespoons toasted sesame seeds1 teaspoon sesame oilDirectionsHeat the canola oil over medium-high heat in a large nonstick skillet or wok, and add the tofu. Stir-fry until the tofu is lightly colored, three to five minutes, and add the garlic, ginger and chili flakes. Cook, stirring, until fragrant, about one minute, and add soy sauce to taste. Add the spinach and stir-fry until the spinach wilts, about one minute. Stir in the sesame seeds, and add more soy sauce to taste. Remove from the heat.Using tongs, transfer the spinach and tofu mixture to a serving bowl, leaving the liquid behind in the pan or wok. Drizzle with the sesame oil, and add more soy sauce as desired. More

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      Biden Should Take Voters’ Concerns About Age Seriously

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      Only 47 percent of Democrats want to see Joe Biden on the ballot in 2024, according to the latest Associated Press poll. That’s not because they think he’s done a bad job in office. Democrats tend to like President Biden and continue to give him good marks on handling the economy and foreign policy.But many Democrats, particularly younger ones, are worried that he will simply be too old to be effective in a second term, which would end when he is 86. “My problem with him running in 2024 is that he’s just so old,” one Democrat told pollsters.That may be deeply unfair — people age at different rates — and in Mr. Biden’s case, it’s impossible to deny that politics and conspiracy theories, rather than facts, fuel at least some of the concern. But candidates shouldn’t pretend, as Mr. Biden often does, that advanced age isn’t an issue. Mr. Biden is 80 now, the oldest American to serve as president, and even supporters, including the political strategist David Axelrod, have expressed deep worries that his age will be both a political liability in 2024 and a barrier to a successful second term. If Mr. Biden runs again, as he recently said he intends to, questions will persist about his age until he does more to assure voters that he is up to the job.Mr. Biden’s age makes him an outlier even in an era when the nation’s political leadership is getting older. The current Senate, where the average age is 63.9 years, is the second oldest since 1789. The House, where the average age is 57.5 years, is the third oldest. By comparison, the average age in the United States is 38.8 years.Concerns about age — both in terms of fitness for office and being out of touch with the moment — are legitimate, as Mr. Biden acknowledged in an interview in February with ABC News. His standard line, repeated in that interview, is: “The only thing I can say is, ‘Watch me.’”But Mr. Biden has given voters very few chances to do just that — to watch him — and his refusal to engage with the public regularly raises questions about his age and health.The usual White House method of demonstrating a president’s mastery is to take tough questions in front of cameras, but Mr. Biden has not taken advantage of that opportunity, as The Times reported on Friday. He has held fewer news conferences and media interviews than most of his modern predecessors. Since 1923, only Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan took fewer questions per month from reporters, and neither represents a model of presidential openness that Mr. Biden should want to emulate. His reticence has created an opening for critics and skeptics.The president also needs to talk about his health openly and without embarrassment, and to end the pretense that it doesn’t matter. Those who are watching him with an open mind have seen a strong performance this year. His State of the Union address on Feb. 7 shattered the Republican attempts to portray him as doddering. With a passion rarely seen at one of these speeches — let alone in his political history — Mr. Biden presented a remarkably effective defense of his presidency and gave a preview of what is likely to be an imminent re-election campaign.The Times reported last summer that Mr. Biden’s overall energy level has declined, and he continues to stumble over words in his public appearances. But those flaws alone don’t signal a politician who is too old to run again. His first term, in fact, is already full of accomplishment: The economy has added 12.6 million jobs since he took office, inflation is cooling, and he has signed significant legislation to fight climate change, improve access to health care, and make investments in manufacturing and infrastructure. He has stood up to Russia’s destructive campaign in Ukraine, and rallied the West to Ukraine’s side.Nonetheless, as Mr. Biden nears his actuarial life expectancy, concerns about his ability to handle the demands of campaigning and a potential second term are unlikely to disappear. Only a combination of performance and complete candor will change the minds of skeptical voters. Old age remains a sensitive topic, and many people, particularly men, are reluctant to discuss personal infirmities for fear of demonstrating weakness or being pushed aside by impatient younger generations. There is good reason for the federal government’s prohibition of age discrimination in employment — a protection that begins at age 40. Ageism is real.That law, however, doesn’t apply to people who are running for office. Voters have every right to ask questions about the medical condition of a candidate who wants their support. In 2016 both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton gave the public very few details about their health. (Mr. Trump released a particularly preposterous doctor’s letter claiming he would be “the healthiest individual ever elected to the presidency.”)Mr. Biden acknowledged during the lead-up to the 2020 campaign that he was “chronologically” old but said it was up to voters to decide whether that was important. In that election, against an opponent who was only four years younger, the answer was clearly no. In November 2021, he released a medical report that said he was a “healthy, vigorous 78-year-old” and noted nothing more serious than a stiffened gait due to spinal changes and some acid reflux that caused him to cough.His most recent health summary, released on Feb. 16, said much the same thing, describing him as a “healthy, vigorous 80-year-old male who is fit to successfully execute the duties of the presidency.” But his cognitive abilities went unmentioned. That’s something he should discuss publicly and also demonstrate to the voters, who expect the president to reflect the nation’s strength.If he runs again, Mr. Biden will need to provide explicit reassurance to voters; many of them have seen family members decline rapidly in their 80s. Americans are watching what Mr. Biden says and does, just as he has asked them to do.Source photograph by Azure-Dragon, via Getty Images.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: [email protected] The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      DeSantis Faces Republican Scrutiny on Issues While Trump Skates By

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      Republican voters seem to be grading Donald Trump on a curve in his third presidential campaign, while Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida faces a more traditional form of scrutiny.When former President Donald J. Trump called Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, “smart” in the days after Mr. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the remark caused a brief media stir and nothing more — another off-the-cuff, provocative statement from someone who is famous for such comments.But when Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida painted the fight in far less extreme terms, as a “territorial dispute,” the reaction from Republicans in Washington and a range of donors was alarm and anger.When the landmark Roe v. Wade abortion ruling was undone by the U.S. Supreme Court, Mr. Trump — who appointed three of the justices responsible for overturning it after promising to do so during his 2016 campaign — acted like a bystander, telling allies it could be bad for Republicans electorally and blaming anti-abortion forces for losses in the 2022 midterm campaigns.Since then, he has refused to say where he stands on federal action curtailing abortion, an issue on which he has changed his position over the years. Yet Mr. DeSantis faced extensive backlash from voters whose support he might need in a general election when he moved to the right of Mr. Trump and signed a law banning abortions in Florida after six weeks of pregnancy.Mr. Trump, a rich businessman and celebrity who served four years as president and is now running his third campaign, is something of a known unknown commodity. For the last eight years, a defining characteristic of Mr. Trump as a political figure has been that he is graded on something of a curve, his more outrageous comments striking some voters as musings rather than as deeper views on policy.“He has never adhered to the unwritten rules of electoral politics, and he has cemented his MAGA brand by openly flouting them,” said Liam Donovan, a Republican strategist. “In 2016, Trump was exempt from the punitive standards we hold conventional politicians to, and what’s remarkable is that seven years and a presidential term later, that still holds true.”Voters, Mr. Donovan said, see Mr. Trump “differently, and make exceptions, consciously or otherwise, for his statements and his behavior.”That defined Mr. Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign, when a series of candidates flamed out in the Republican primaries as they were judged by traditional standards against a rival who actively sought to burn down those standards.And if Mr. Trump is succeeds in winning the nomination again, the degree to which he is viewed through a fundamentally different lens from those applied to other politicians will be a significant reason. Support for the primary campaign by Mr. Trump — who last month earned the dubious distinction of being the first former U.S. president to be indicted on criminal charges — has only increased.By contrast, Mr. DeSantis, a former congressman and current governor, is being held to the standards of a typical politician, just as all of those who unsuccessfully tried to stop Mr. Trump in the 2016 primary were. And against those conventional standards, in his first foray onto the national stage, Mr. DeSantis has been struggling.Gov. Ron DeSantis speaking in Doral, Fla., last month.Scott McIntyre for The New York TimesHe has made a series of unforced errors that have been the focus of news coverage and have caused public and private alarm among Republican donors who saw him as the antidote to Mr. Trump.Meanwhile, Mr. Trump has gone from decades of being active in New York politics to running as an outsider in 2016, followed by an ascent to party leader as president, and is now racking up endorsements from political elites as the front-runner for the Republican nomination.Mr. Trump has for decades engaged in the kind of glad-handing that benefits candidates — which Mr. DeSantis is said to eschew — such as working phones, sending notes and attending events. He also has the ability to invite people on a private plane or to an opulent members-only club.Mr. Trump also has the advantage of celebrity, and over the course of his presidency, his base became conditioned to dismiss his contradictory policy impulses and statements as just the way Mr. Trump talks.By contrast, Mr. DeSantis’s words and actions harden as soon as they happen, which Mr. Trump plays to his advantage.Recently, Mr. Trump mocked Mr. DeSantis for describing Mr. Putin as “basically a gas station with a bunch of nuclear weapons” in a March interview with the broadcaster Piers Morgan. Mr. Trump put out a campaign video in which he defended Mr. Putin and attacked Mr. DeSantis for offering “exactly the kind of simple-minded thinking that has produced decades of failed diplomacy and ultimately war.”Yet in his own interview with Mr. Morgan last year, Mr. Trump agreed when the interviewer described Mr. Putin as an “evil genocidal monster” amid the devastating scenes in Ukraine.“I do” agree with that assessment, Mr. Trump said in response to Mr. Morgan’s prodding. “And who wouldn’t?”Yet in segments with conservative media outlets, Mr. DeSantis often faces criticism that Mr. Trump does not.Shortly after Mr. DeSantis’s interview with Mr. Morgan on Russia, the influential Fox News host Tucker Carlson took issue with his calling Mr. Putin a “war criminal,” without mentioning that Mr. Trump had described him in even harsher terms.Jason Miller, a top adviser to Mr. Trump, said that the former president has an ability “to bypass the filter of political media and build a personal relationship directly with voters.” He described it as a “sense of familiarity” forged through Mr. Trump’s time in business and entertainment and noted that Mr. Trump had brought millions of nontraditional voters to the table.For the most part, Mr. Trump’s 2024 rivals have avoided taking him on directly by name, or challenging his presidency. The exception is Chris Christie, the former Republican governor of New Jersey, who is traveling in advance of a possible campaign of his own and who laid out a series of policy failures he said Mr. Trump had committed as president.“All of those failings are policy failings, but they’re bigger than that,” Mr. Christie said at a town hall in New Hampshire on Thursday night. “They’re broken promises.”Whether such a line of attack will stick remains to be seen. But it is at odds with how Mr. DeSantis has approached the race so far, some Republican strategists say.“DeSantis’s flawed strategy so far has been to try to beat Trump by out-Trumping Trump without understanding that he’s going to be graded on a conventional curve,” Rob Stutzman, a California-based operative, said, suggesting that Mr. DeSantis, who is expected to formally enter the race in the coming weeks, needed a course correction. “Only Trump rides the Trump curve.” More