Presidential Election of 2024

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      Is the Trump Trade Back?

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      Market observers see signs that investors increasingly believe Donald Trump will win the election, but there may be alternate explanations for a shift in sentiment. A rally in some stocks, cryptocurrencies and Donald Trump’s social media company are some signs of investors betting on the former president to win in November.Brendan Mcdermid/ReutersA trade makes a comeback The election polls may be deadlocked. But in the markets, some investors are indicating that they see Donald Trump as increasingly likely to win the White House, a belief that seems to mirror a swing in the prediction markets.Market observers see the return of the so-called Trump trade, which posits that certain industry sectors and financial assets — think oil drillers and cryptocurrencies — would benefit from the former president bringing in lower taxes and less regulation.The signs that the Trump trade is gaining steam: Stanley Druckenmiller, the billionaire financier, told Bloomberg yesterday that over the past 12 days, markets appeared “very convinced Trump is going to win.” (It’s worth noting that Druckenmiller said he didn’t plan to vote for either candidate.)Among the evidence Druckenmiller pointed to:A rally in bank stocks, which are up 8.5 percent over the past two weeks. (That said, banks have so far reported better-than-expected earnings.)Shares in Trump Media & Technology Group, the former president’s unprofitable social media company, have soared since late September, adding nearly $2 billion to its market value. But the stock’s volatile trading hasn’t always correlated with polls or prediction markets, and it’s unclear whether the company would draw more advertisers if Trump won. Some companies might flock to the platform to curry political favor; others might stay away.Bitcoin has risen about 13 percent in the past week. The cryptocurrency world has largely bet on a second Trump administration being friendlier to digital assets, though Vice President Kamala Harris has made appeals to the industry.Also, the dollar approached a two-and-a-half month high this morning as currency traders appear to be pricing in a Trump victory, betting that his economic policies would drive up inflation, lower the price of bonds and strengthen the dollar. (That said, Trump wants a weak greenback.)But there are potential pitfalls to betting on Trump. “It is a thing in the financial markets,” Holger Schmieding, the chief economist at Berenberg, a German bank, said of the Trump trade.He told DealBook: “I don’t agree with it in the long run. Higher tariffs and less immigration would hurt U.S. vitality.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      6 Takeaways From Harris’s Contentious Interview on Fox News

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      Vice President Kamala Harris sat for the most adversarial interview of her campaign on Wednesday, sparring with the Fox News anchor Bret Baier over the border, President Biden’s mental fitness and whether former President Donald J. Trump is a threat to American democracy.For a Democratic presidential candidate, appearing on Fox News is about as close as going into the lion’s den as it gets. On Wednesday, the lion was Mr. Baier, who repeatedly interrupted the vice president and tried to talk over her.But Ms. Harris — giving her first interview on Fox News in an attempt to reach millions of voters, especially conservative-leaning women, who have probably not heard much of her message — largely steered the conversation in her preferred direction.Here are six takeaways from the interview.She broke with Biden (a little).Ms. Harris made her clearest effort to separate herself from Mr. Biden after she was asked how her administration would be different.“My presidency will not be a continuation of Joe Biden’s presidency,” she replied, adding that she represented a different generation of leadership and would address issues like housing and small businesses in different ways.Republicans have seen Ms. Harris’s unwillingness to articulate differences from the unpopular president as a political gift. In an interview on ABC’s “The View” last week, she said there was “not a thing that comes to mind” when asked what she would have done differently from Mr. Biden.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Harris Came for a Fox News Interview, but Got a Debate With Bret Baier

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      Vice President Kamala Harris may not get another debate with former President Donald J. Trump, but on Wednesday, she got one with Bret Baier.In an interview that turned contentious almost the instant it began, Mr. Baier, Fox News’s chief political anchor, repeatedly pressed the Democratic presidential nominee on illegal immigration, taxpayer support for gender-transition surgery and other areas that closely aligned with Mr. Trump’s regular attacks against her.At one point, Mr. Baier wondered if the vice president considered Mr. Trump’s supporters “stupid.” (“I would never say that about the American people,” she replied.) At another point, he asked if she would apologize to the mother of a murdered 12-year-old Texas girl whose death is frequently invoked by Mr. Trump because two recent Venezuelan migrants were charged with the crime.Mr. Baier’s aggressive demeanor was consistent with the kind of tough coverage of Ms. Harris that blankets Fox News’s daily programming. Lots of viewers were surely eager to hear how she would respond when confronted head-on.Frequently, however, Mr. Baier did not give viewers that chance. Instead, looking frustrated, he cut off several of Ms. Harris’s answers after a few seconds. His first interruption came within the first half-minute of their exchange.“May I please finish responding?” Ms. Harris asked at one point. “I’m in the middle of responding to the point you’re making, and I’d like to finish.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Trump aumenta las amenazas a sus adversarios

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      Nunca un candidato presidencial había sugerido utilizar el ejército contra los estadounidenses simplemente porque se oponen a su candidatura.A tres semanas del día de las elecciones, el expresidente Donald Trump está poniendo en el centro de su campaña una amenaza política: que usaría el poder de la presidencia para aplastar a quienes no estén de acuerdo con él.En una entrevista el domingo con Fox News, Trump calificó a los demócratas de pernicioso “enemigo interno” que provocaría un caos el día de las elecciones que, según especuló, la Guardia Nacional podría tener que controlar.Un día después, cerró sus declaraciones ante una multitud en un evento que se anunció como una tertulia electoral en Pensilvania con un duro mensaje sobre sus oponentes políticos.“Son malos y, francamente, malvados”, dijo Trump. “Son malvados. Lo que han hecho, lo han convertido en un arma, han convertido nuestras elecciones en un arma. Han hecho cosas que nadie pensaba que fueran posibles”.Y el martes, una vez más se negó a comprometerse a una transferencia pacífica del poder cuando fue presionado por un entrevistador en un foro económico en Chicago.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      En caso de crisis electoral, esto es lo que debes saber

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      En 2020, cuando Donald Trump cuestionó los resultados de las elecciones, los tribunales rechazaron decisivamente sus intentos una y otra vez. En 2024, el poder judicial podría ser incapaz de salvar nuestra democracia.Los renegados ya no son principiantes. Han pasado los últimos cuatro años haciéndose profesionales, diseñando meticulosamente una estrategia en múltiples frentes —legislaturas estatales, el Congreso, poderes ejecutivos y jueces electos— para anular cualquier elección reñida.Los nuevos desafíos tendrán lugar en foros que han purgado cada vez más a los funcionarios que anteponen el país al partido. Podrían ocurrir en un contexto de márgenes electorales muy estrechos en los estados clave de tendencia electoral incierta, lo que significa que cualquier impugnación exitosa podría cambiar potencialmente las elecciones.Disponemos de unas pocas semanas para comprender estos desafíos y así poder estar alerta contra ellos.En primer lugar, en los tribunales ya se han presentado docenas de demandas. En Pensilvania se ha iniciado un litigio sobre si están permitidas las papeletas de voto por correo sin fecha y si se pueden permitir las boletas provisionales. Stephen Miller, exasesor de Trump, presentó una demanda en Arizona alegando que los jueces deberían tener la capacidad de rechazar los resultados de las elecciones.Muchos estados han cambiado recientemente su forma de votar. Incluso una modificación menor podría dar lugar a impugnaciones legales, y algunas invitan afirmativamente al caos.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Nebraska Supreme Court Upholds Voting Rights for Felons

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      The Nebraska Supreme Court ordered the secretary of state on Wednesday to allow people with felony convictions to vote after finishing their sentences, resolving confusion about who can participate in this year’s election and rejecting an argument by the state attorney general that lawmakers overstepped in extending voting rights to those with convictions.The ruling, issued with early balloting in the state already underway and voter registration deadlines approaching quickly, will help shape the state’s electorate, which can carry special importance in presidential races because of the way Nebraska splits its Electoral College votes by congressional district rather than using the winner-takes-all approach of most states. Nebraska also has a competitive U.S. Senate race this year, as well as a tightly contested U.S. House race in the Omaha area. The ruling on Wednesday was expected to affect thousands of potential voters.Nebraska, which usually votes Republican in statewide races, was part of a national trend in loosening voting rules for people with criminal records. In 2005, lawmakers in the state abolished a lifetime voting ban for people convicted of felonies, but continued to require people to wait two years to vote after finishing their sentences. This year, in a bipartisan vote, lawmakers got rid of that waiting period, clearing the way for people to cast ballots immediately after finishing prison and parole terms.Gov. Jim Pillen, a Republican, allowed the bill to become law without his signature, but the measure attracted skepticism from Attorney General Mike Hilgers and Secretary of State Bob Evnen, both Republicans.Just before the new measure was set to take effect this summer, Mr. Hilgers released a written opinion saying that both the new law and the 2005 law were improper. He argued that under the Nebraska Constitution, only the state’s Board of Pardons could restore voting rights to someone with a felony conviction. Mr. Evnen then instructed county election officials to stop registering voters with felony convictions. The Board of Pardons is made up of Mr. Pillen, Mr. Hilgers and Mr. Evnen.Reached on Wednesday morning, Cindi Allen, a deputy secretary of state, said Mr. Evnen’s office planned to comment on the ruling on Wednesday afternoon. A spokeswoman for Mr. Hilgers said they were reviewing the ruling.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Music Activism Gets Back on the Road

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      Bands were sidelined by the Covid-19 pandemic during the 2020 campaign. This year, with increasing sophistication, they are encouraging political activism.Doug Emhoff, the husband of Vice President Kamala Harris, and Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania could not believe their good fortune.Looking down from their sky box at Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, they saw more than 20,000 die-hard fans in the biggest city in the swingiest of swing states, responding with deafening cheers to a speech by Eddie Vedder of Pearl Jam on one of Ms. Harris’s signature campaign issues: abortion.“We find ourselves reaching out to ladies, young women, whose lives are at risk,” Mr. Vedder said. “And we’re reaching out to moms who want their daughters to have the same reproductive freedoms that they had and they fought for, and also men too, who don’t want government dictating the path of our daughters, our sisters or even our partners.”After the Covid-19 pandemic forced musicians off the road during the 2020 presidential cycle, rock activism is back, with new sophistication. Tours are prioritizing swing states. Artists are making their pitch before live audiences and on their significant online platforms. And bands are leveraging voter targeting methods once used exclusively by the political class.“Being at a rock show, it’s one of those things where you feel so connected to your community,” Jeff Ament, the bass player for Pearl Jam, said in an interview. “And if you’re not the person that goes to City Council meetings and is involved with your community that way, voting is the one time every year where you get to go out and voice your opinion on equal terms to everybody. It doesn’t matter if you’re a millionaire or a 20-year-old going to school and working at the coffee shop. It should be the great equalizer.”Jeff Ament, the bassist of Pearl Jam, is using his platform to encourage fans to vote in the November election. Jim Bennett/Getty ImagesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Michelle Obama to Host a Rally to Encourage Voter Turnout in Georgia

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      Michelle Obama, the former first lady, plans to host a rally in Atlanta a week before Election Day, aiming to encourage young and nonwhite voters to head to the polls.Mrs. Obama is one of the Democratic Party’s most popular figures but is also one of its most elusive surrogates. She delivered an impactful speech at the Democratic National Convention in August, encouraging viewers to “do something” to help Vice President Kamala Harris defeat her Republican rival, former President Donald J. Trump, and delivering an emphatic takedown of Mr. Trump in the process.Unlike her husband, former President Barack Obama, she has not been involved in events since.The Oct. 29 rally, announced on Wednesday by Mrs. Obama’s nonpartisan voting-rights organization When We All Vote, is not expected to be the only event she participates in. The organization’s executive director, Beth Lynk, said in a statement that the event will “set the tone for the entire country — especially first-time voters — to vote early.”Mrs. Obama’s appearance will be aimed at bolstering activity in a state where officials have already reported record turnout for early voting. Nearly five million Georgians voted in 2020, when Joseph R. Biden Jr. carried the state by 12,670 votes, making him the first Democratic presidential nominee to win there since Bill Clinton, then the governor of Arkansas, in 1992.Mrs. Obama remains one of the best-known public figures in America, ranking third on a list of prominent people compiled by YouGov, a market research firm. (Her husband ranks sixth.) Since leaving the White House, Mrs. Obama has balanced a well-known distaste for politics with constant demands to be on the public stage stumping for Democrats.In 2016, Mrs. Obama made her first campaign appearance in support of Hillary Clinton, then the Democratic nominee, in mid-September. After that, she delivered a handful of speeches, including an appearance on the eve of Election Day. During the pandemic election season in 2020, she released her last speech in support of Mr. Biden in a video message on Oct. 6. More