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    European Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates as the Economy Weakens

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    The bank has been lowering rates since June as inflation slowed, but other risks are growing, including the threat of higher tariffs promised by President-elect Donald J. Trump.The European Central Bank lowered interest rates on Thursday, the fourth cut this year amid growing concerns that the region’s economic outlook is darkening.Policymakers reduced the bank’s deposit rate by a quarter point, to 3 percent, in a move widely expected by investors. The bank, which sets rates for the 20 countries that use the euro, has been lowering rates since June as inflation slowed toward its target of 2 percent. In November, inflation averaged 2.3 percent across the region, slightly higher than in previous months as energy prices rose.“The disinflation process is well on track,” Christine Lagarde, the president of the central bank, said on Thursday at a news conference in Frankfurt. The bank forecast inflation to average 2.1 percent next year.Despite substantial progress on reining in inflation in recent years, other risks are accumulating. Europe faces the prospect of higher tariffs on its goods exported to the United States imposed during the second term of President-elect Donald J. Trump, and political turmoil in Germany and France, the bloc’s two largest economies, is adding to the uncertainty. Much of the past year has been spent warning that Europe needs to take drastic action to improve its competitiveness, but it is not clear where the leadership will come from to make the necessary changes. That increases the pressure on the central bank to support the economy with lower interest rates.As inflation has slowed in Europe and the United States, central bankers have eased their monetary policy stances. But in recent months, there are growing distinctions between the banks over how fast and how much they need to lower rates.Earlier on Thursday, the Swiss National Bank cut rates by a larger-than-expected half-point as its currency, considered a haven during times of geopolitical stress, has strengthened. Next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates after inflation data published on Wednesday added to confidence of slowing price growth. And the Bank of England is expected to hold rates next week, continuing its gradual approach to easing amid concerns the recent government budget will add to price pressures.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      China Pledges More Stimulus to Shore Up Flagging Economy

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      At a meeting to set the party’s economic policy agenda, China’s leadership said it would borrow more and cut interest rates in a bid to bolster growth.China’s top leaders on Thursday pledged more stimulus measures to shore up the country’s economy, building on steps they have taken in recent months to bolster growth.At an annual gathering of the Chinese Communist Party and the cabinet, led by the country’s top leader, Xi Jinping, officials agreed that the government should allow a bigger budget deficit, borrow more and cut interest rates, the state television broadcaster said on Thursday.The statements suggest a willingness by Beijing to take more aggressive steps to increase spending, part of a shift that began in September to turn around years of weak consumer demand, lackluster growth and declining prices.China “will need to maintain economic growth and maintain overall stability of employment and prices next year,” the state broadcaster said at the conclusion of the two-day Central Economic Work Conference, which sets the economic agenda for the upcoming year.The Chinese government typically uses the conference to signal priorities that could translate into policy action in the next year, and to agree on budget details that will be announced at the spring legislative session.Earlier this week, the ruling Politburo gave a rare public acknowledgment that Beijing needed to take a stronger approach on the economy, when it indicated it would be more willing to lower interest rates. It was the first time that China’s leaders had eased their stance on monetary policy since the aftermath of the global financial crisis 14 years ago.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      With Discounts on Offer, Shoppers Seem to Bite

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      Early data on online spending this week shows consumers are being drawn to discounts. A clearer picture of Black Friday sales, including in-store spending, will emerge in the days ahead.For weeks, businesses have been sending consumers endless offers of discounts on all sorts of items. Finally, on this long weekend, it appears that consumers bit.Preliminary data released on Friday suggests that Americans took advantage of big deals on Thanksgiving and Black Friday, opening their wallets, though they were selective about what they bought.Consumers spent $7.9 billion in online shopping on Friday, an increase of 8.2 percent compared with last year, according to incomplete numbers from Adobe Analytics. That’s on top of $6.1 billion online on Thanksgiving Day, around 9 percent more than the previous year. The increases were driven by large discounts on items like toys, electronics and apparel. These numbers offer an early look at how the holiday shopping season has gone so far. The Adobe data doesn’t include in-store buying. Mastercard will release data that includes in-store sales on Saturday, and the National Retail Federation is set to update its figures on the holiday shopping season next week.Ahead of the holiday weekend, as retailers issued forecasts for the coming months, they painted a picture of shoppers who have grown choosy, holding off on large purchases after years of faster-than-usual price increases and with interest rates still high.“Consumers have been waiting all of 2024 for this moment to buy the goods they want and need at a lower price, and they seem to be pleased with the discounts they’re seeing this week,” said Caila Schwartz, the director of consumer insights at Salesforce, which also tracks spending data.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Inflation Concerns Loom as Trumponomics Revs Up

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      Investors are bracing for the latest data as the president-elect’s economic agenda of cutting immigration and taxes, while raising tariffs takes shape.Progress on tamping down inflation has stalled in recent months. Will today’s data show more of the same?David Zalubowski/Associated PressTrump puts inflation on the agenda The inflation risk stalking the markets eased over the summer, but it never really went away. It’s front and center again as investors contend with a Trumponomics crackdown on immigration, a rising trade-war risk and a potential bonanza of tax cuts.An important inflation measure comes out at 10 a.m. Eastern: the Personal Consumption Expenditures index report. It’s the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and one of the last big data releases of the year that the central bank will consider as it ponders when to lower borrowing costs further. (Next week’s jobs report is another.)Donald Trump’s latest trade threats show how uncertain the outlook could be. Since the president-elect this week vowed to impose tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico — the United States’ three biggest trade partners — analysts have been gaming out the potential impact. Economists fear that it could add bottlenecks and costs to supply chains and reignite inflation, and that it could scramble the Fed’s policy on interest rates.A worst-case scenario from Deutsche Bank economists: that core P.C.E. next year would jump by an additional 1.1 percentage points if the Trump tariffs were fully enacted. Is the tariff talk an opening salvo for trade negotiations, or a fait accompli? That uncertainty can be felt in the $28 trillion market for U.S. Treasury notes and bonds: Yields hit a four-month high this month, though they are down on Wednesday. Yields climb when prices fall, and have been especially sensitive to concerns that fiscal policy could fuel inflation.Here’s what to watch for in Wednesday’s P.C.E.:Core P.C.E., which excludes volatile food and food prices, is forecast to come in at 2.8 percent on an annualized basis. That would be 0.29 percent above September’s reading.Such a rise would represent a second straight month of inflation trending higher, putting the level further above the Fed’s 2 percent target. The report “should show another ‘bump in the road’ on the path to 2 percent inflation,” Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup, wrote in an investor note this week.The culprits are thought to be shelter inflation — especially house prices, with mortgage rates soaring — and used car prices, as well as higher portfolio management fees.Futures traders on Wednesday were pricing in roughly 60 percent odds of a Fed rate cut next month. But their calculations have been volatile in recent months, and a surprisingly hot number could cause a shift in thinking once again.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Biden’s Chief Economist Processes the Election With ‘Confusion, Guilt’

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      Jared Bernstein, the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, was a leading architect of “Bidenomics.”Since the election, Jared Bernstein, the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, has often found himself in a down mood — dealing, he says, with “confusion, guilt” and “cognitive dissonance.”President-elect Donald J. Trump’s sweeping victory was fueled in part by lousy consumer sentiment and working-class Americans’ frustration with the underlying state of the economy. That is a big blow to the idea of “Bidenomics,” of which Mr. Bernstein was a leading evangelist and architect.The U.S. economy recovered from the pandemic with greater strength than any of its peers. Unemployment stayed below 4 percent for the longest stretch since the 1960s, and remains low. A widely predicted, long-feared recession never materialized. And data show there is continuing a boomlet in manufacturing construction and business productivity.But price increases also spiked on President Biden’s watch. Several prominent economists, peers of Mr. Bernstein’s, argue that the administration’s robust fiscal response caused the inflation. And other issues of affordability — especially housing — have sapped the optimism of many households in the last couple of years.Calling in from Paris on Friday after serving as chair of an economic meeting of the Organization for European Economic Cooperation at the Château de la Muette, Mr. Bernstein, a longtime Biden confidant, spoke with The New York Times about how he is making sense of the moment.You told me three years ago that one goal of the American Rescue Plan was to intentionally “run the economy with a little bit more heat.” We’ve seen benefits of that, but in light of ensuing inflation, do you regret the size and the scope of the American Rescue Plan?We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Walmart Stock Rises on Strong Earnings Ahead of Holiday Shopping Season

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      The bellwether retailer reported higher-than-expected sales in its latest quarter and upgraded its forecast for the rest of the year.Walmart has told its workers that it plans to “win” the holiday season. Ahead of the peak shopping period, the nation’s largest retailer appears well positioned, citing “broad-based strength” across its product range.Walmart said Tuesday that U.S. sales increased 5 percent in the third quarter, to $114.9 billion, easily surpassing analysts’ estimates. Sales at its U.S. e-commerce business jumped 22 percent, aided by pickup and delivery options as well as its expanding online advertising and marketplace business.The number of visits and the amount spent per visit both rose, a promising trend for the retailer. Walmart raised its full-year forecast for sales and profit, higher than the estimates it had already increased three months ago.Doug McMillon, Walmart’s chief executive, said the company had “momentum.” “In the U.S., in-store volumes grew, pickup from store grew faster, and delivery from store grew even faster than that,” he said in a statement on Tuesday. The results were somewhat affected by hurricanes and a strike by East Coast port workers, the company said, slightly raising sales but denting profits.Walmart, which brings in millions of customers each week, is a bellwether of U.S. consumer trends. The period between Thanksgiving and New Year’s Day can make or break a retailer’s year, and companies are unsure about how freely shoppers will spend in the weeks ahead.Analysts have recently cautioned that Walmart’s success does not necessarily mean the rest of the retail industry will see similarly strong sales.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Jared Polis Wants to Win Back the Hippies

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      It’s such a bother when politicians have to go and complicate your clean narrative about why they’re succeeding.Last week, I spoke to Jared Polis, the Democratic governor of Colorado. Polis’s state was, if not a bright spot for Democrats, a less-dark one. In New York, Democrats lost 11 points off their 2020 margin; in New Jersey, 10 points; in Massachusetts, nine and a half points; in California, nine points (though votes are still being counted); in Illinois, seven points. In Colorado, the difference was two and a half points. What is Polis, who won re-election in 2022 by a 19-point margin, doing right?One answer — and this, to be honest, was the answer I’d gone looking for — is focusing relentlessly on the cost of living. “You can’t just do one policy and expect, somehow, people will know it,” Polis told me. “But they generally understand the drumbeat of 30, 40 things you’re doing, each of which reduces costs in a different way. And so that’s been our strategy: to flood the zone with this work to reduce costs.”Polis points with pride to his successful efforts to expand pre-K and kindergarten and get a public insurance option onto the Colorado health exchanges — but also to his rejection of proposals to add benefits that would drive up costs. He’s happy to brag about reducing the tax rate for both businesses and individuals, walking me through every decimal-point reduction he achieved, and the many bills he’s signed to make it easier to build homes.“When you say something a lot, it means you generally believe it,” Polis said. “So here’s a line I often use: We want the best solutions from the left and the right to save people money.”But during our conversation, and in the days after, another answer emerged — and for Democrats this one is a little more challenging. Polis is a dissenter from the trends that swept through Democratic governance during the pandemic. He was unusual among Democratic governors for the emphasis he put on both personal responsibility and personal liberty. Colorado opened early, sparking a tourism boom, and Polis tried to rely more on information than compulsion.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Airport Food Prices at JFK and LaGuardia Are About to Go Up

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      The three big airports that serve New York City have proposed allowing concession prices to rise and adding a surcharge to cover higher wages and improved worker benefits.The prices of food and drinks in the airports that serve New York City, already a pet peeve of many travelers, are set to take a sharp upward turn next year.To cover the rising costs of labor at the three big airports it operates — LaGuardia, Kennedy International and Newark Liberty International — the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey has proposed rule changes that would allow restaurants and shops to raise their prices and tack on a 3 percent surcharge.Together, the changes could result in a 7.5 percent increase in January to prices that have long been the subject of complaints from travelers. An online menu for the Bobby Van’s steakhouse at Kennedy shows that a cheeseburger and fries costs $29.50 and a glass of chardonnay is $17. After a 7.5 percent increase, that meal could cost an additional $3.49, for a total of about $50.At LaGuardia on Tuesday, a bar charged $16 for chicken Caesar wraps and turkey-and-Swiss panini. Nearby, a shop sold a 12-ounce bag of almonds for $15.99.The Port Authority said the increases would help the concessions cover the costs of rising wages and better benefits for their employees. The agency, which sets the rules for the businesses that operate inside the airport terminals, has proposed gradual increases in the minimum wage for workers there.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Will NYC Revive Congestion Pricing After Trump’s Victory?

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      Gov. Kathy Hochul, facing pressure from supporters of the contentious tolling plan, is said to be exploring options for adopting it in some form.Gov. Kathy Hochul of New York is exploring options for reviving a congestion pricing plan for New York City before President-elect Donald J. Trump has a chance to kill it, according to four people familiar with the matter.Ms. Hochul’s move to salvage the contentious plan comes as she faces pressure from various corners, including a group that represents transit riders and is planning to start an advertising blitz on Monday in support of the tolling program.The plan that Ms. Hochul, a Democrat, is now exploring differs slightly from the one she halted in June. She is trying to satisfy opponents who had complained about the $15 congestion-pricing toll that most motorists would have had to pay as well as supporters who want to reduce car traffic and fund mass transit improvements.The governor has talked to federal officials about the possibility of a $9 toll and about whether such a change might require the lengthy, involved process of additional environmental review, according to a Metropolitan Transportation Authority board member familiar with the matter. The discussions were first reported by Politico.Mr. Trump, a Republican, has said he opposes congestion pricing, and his victory on Tuesday has apparently pushed Ms. Hochul to try to find a compromise.“The timing is everything,” said Danny Pearlstein, a spokesman for Riders Alliance, the riders’ group that is planning the ad blitz. If congestion pricing has not started by January, he added “it’s very unlikely it would start.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More