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      Biden Tries to Reassure Voters on Health Care Costs Before Election

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      At an event in Southern California, the president says his administration is working to keep costs down and warns that Republicans will drive prices higher if they gain power.LOS ANGELES — President Biden on Friday tried to reassure Americans stung by high inflation that his administration was working to keep health care costs down, promising a community college audience in Southern California that he was committed to doing even more.But his remarks in Irvine, Calif. — the first of two West Coast speeches devoted to health care costs — come just days after government data revealed that overall inflation remains high as voters prepare to go to the polls for midterm elections early next month.Surveys show that Americans are deeply frustrated by the impact of sharply higher prices on their pocketbooks. They are expected to rebuke the president and his party in the elections, with most analysts predicting that Democrats will lose control of one or both chambers in Congress.Speaking to a friendly audience, Mr. Biden argued that Republicans would drive prices higher if they gained power. He noted their opposition to his efforts to allow Medicare to negotiate drug prices, which he said would force prices down for medication for millions of seniors. And he said Democrats had pushed through price caps on critical drugs like insulin.“If Republicans in Congress have their way, it’s going to mean the power we just gave Medicare to negotiate lower prescription drug prices and other costs over time goes away — gone,” Mr. Biden said, standing in front of signs that said “Lowering Costs for American Families.” “Two-thousand-dollar cap on prescription drugs goes away — gone. The $35 month cap on insulin for Medicare is gone.”The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsWith the primaries over, both parties are shifting their focus to the general election on Nov. 8.The Final Stretch: With less than one month until Election Day, Republicans remain favored to take over the House, but momentum in the pitched battle for the Senate has seesawed back and forth.A Surprising Battleground: New York has emerged from a haywire redistricting cycle as perhaps the most consequential congressional battleground in the country. For Democrats, the uncertainty is particularly jarring.Arizona’s Governor’s Race: Democrats are openly expressing their alarm that Katie Hobbs, the party’s nominee for governor in the state, is fumbling a chance to defeat Kari Lake in one of the most closely watched races.Herschel Walker: The Republican Senate nominee in Georgia reportedly paid for an ex-girlfriend’s abortion, but members of his party have learned to tolerate his behavior.Mr. Biden’s three-state, four-day trip is also intended to boost the fortunes of Democratic candidates by using the presidential bully pulpit to highlight the party’s accomplishments. On Wednesday in Colorado, he stood next to Michael Bennet, one of the state’s two Democratic senators, to announce a new national monument — a key campaign promise for the embattled lawmaker.In Los Angeles on Thursday, Mr. Biden hailed the use of money from his infrastructure legislation to help complete a new subway line. During his remarks, he made certain to single out Representative Karen Bass, a Democrat who had fought for a provision that directs jobs on the project to local workers.“Local workers can be first in line for these jobs thanks to Karen,” Mr. Biden said. “I really mean it, Karen. Thank you very much.”At the community college in Irvine, Mr. Biden focused his attention on health care — and on Representative Katie Porter, a two-term Democrat running for re-election in a key swing district in Orange County.Ms. Porter, who is facing Scott Baugh, a Republican former state assemblyman, pushed for the drug pricing measure. At the event on Friday, Mr. Biden singled her out, crediting the success of Democratic legislation to her efforts to fight on behalf of her constituents..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.“That’s why Katie’s leadership and the work of the Democrats in Congress was so consequential,” he said. “Katie, I’m not just being nice because I’m in your district. It happens to be true. No, no. I mean, you’re a fighter. You’re decent. You’re honorable and everybody respects you.”Friday’s event at the Irvine Valley Community College was an official one, not a campaign rally. But Ms. Porter used her time at the podium to assail Republicans.“Every single Republican in Washington voted against patients, against families and against taxpayers,” she said. “In the Senate, Republican politicians voted to limit how much Americans can save on prescription drugs and to prevent all patients from getting insulin. And House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy has vowed that next term it’s his priority to return Big Pharma its unchecked power to charge patients whatever it wants.”She called that a “slap in the face” to the Californians she represents.Republicans sought to portray the president’s efforts to bolster candidates’ prospects as in vain. “Joe Biden is the last person Democrat candidates want to see on the campaign trail,” Michael McAdams, the communications director for the National Republican Campaign Committee, said after the event, noting reports that Democrats recently shifted money away from some California districts to candidates who need help more.“His policies are so unpopular House Democrats are being forced to abandon spending in California districts he won by double-digits,” Mr. McAdams said.Friday evening, Mr. Biden was scheduled to fly to Portland, Ore., a liberal community where the Democratic Party would not normally need the help of the sitting president. But Mr. Biden is hoping to help boost the fortunes of Tina Kotek, the Democratic candidate for governor.Although the state has not elected a Republican leader in decades, polls suggest that Ms. Kotek is in a tight, three-way race with Christine Drazan, the Republican candidate, and Betsy Johnson, a former Democrat who is being financed by Phil Knight, the co-founder of Nike. The White House is hoping that a visit by Mr. Biden will help underscore the party’s commitment to her.Republicans predicted that the president’s trip will not prevent their party from grabbing the top electoral prize in the state.“Joe Biden’s disastrous policies continue to hurt Oregon families, and there has been no bigger fan of his out-of-touch approach,” said Kaitlin Price, a spokeswoman for the Republican Governors Association, citing Ms. Kotek, Ms. Johnson and Kate Brown, the state’s current Democratic governor.“This last-ditch effort from national Democrats is proof of their hysteria as they watch Christine Drazan take hold of once deep-blue Oregon that is desperate for change,” Ms. Price said. More

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      Gas Prices in U.S. Rise Amid West Coast Refinery Shutdowns

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      The gains could raise pressure on policymakers, but analysts say the higher prices may be short-lived as refineries in California and Washington restart production.Gasoline prices in the United States are creeping higher, reversing a monthslong streak of declines and chipping away at a potent talking point for the Biden administration, which had been emphasizing its success at easing pressure on drivers since the summer.Though the uptick has followed a rise in crude oil prices, analysts pointed to two new factors that are also pushing gasoline higher — a loss of refining capacity in California and Ohio, and rising demand in recent weeks.The national average price of regular gasoline stood at $3.891 a gallon on Friday, climbing for more than two weeks, according to data from AAA. That’s lower than the record of about $5.02 reached in June but still higher than usual for this time of year.Prices have made a particularly big leap in California. At about $6.39 a gallon, prices are close to the state’s June record of $6.44. Gas prices there and in other Western states, including Nevada and Arizona, jumped after several refineries in the region closed for maintenance.The rise, should it last, could increase pressure on the White House to act quickly to bring prices back down. A spike in gas prices, which followed a surge in crude oil and other energy costs after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, became both a political liability and a policy headache as consumer prices rose across the board.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsWith the primaries over, both parties are shifting their focus to the general election on Nov. 8.Standing by Herschel Walker: After a report that the G.O.P. Senate candidate in Georgia paid for a girlfriend’s abortion in 2009, Republicans rallied behind him, fearing that a break with the former football star could hurt the party’s chances to take the Senate.Wisconsin Senate Race: Mandela Barnes, the Democratic candidate, is wobbling in his contest against Senator Ron Johnson, the Republican incumbent, as an onslaught of G.O.P. attack ads takes a toll.G.O.P. Senate Gains: After signs emerged that Republicans were making gains in the race for the Senate, the polling shift is now clear, writes Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst.Democrats’ Closing Argument: Buoyed by polls that show the end of Roe v. Wade has moved independent voters their way, vulnerable House Democrats have reoriented their campaigns around abortion rights in the final weeks before the election.President Biden, who over the summer responded to the increase in gas prices by chiding energy companies for profiteering on consumers, released oil from strategic reserves and encouraged Saudi Arabia to produce more oil. Gas prices eventually started to decline, as global oil prices tumbled amid rising concern about the slowing global economy and demand eased.As the streak of declines stretched to 98 days, the White House regularly pointed to the drop and the savings it would offer to drivers.The recent jump means White House officials have been pressed to address the issue again. Brian Deese, the director of the National Economic Council, said on Thursday that energy companies needed to lower prices at the pump.“If you look at the gap between wholesale and retail prices, it has come down,” he said during a press briefing. “It hasn’t come down enough — right? — but it has come down.”Analysts say the refinery shutdowns will be temporary, and the fact that Americans tend to drive less in the winter could keep prices from climbing as sharply as they did in June. But a recent rebound in crude oil prices, which rose nearly 17 percent this week as the world’s major oil producers agreed to cut production, means predicting what’s next will be difficult.“This is not the Biden administration’s fault, but they know that if gas prices are back at $4.50 on Election Day, they’re in trouble,” said Tom Kloza, a founder of Oil Price Information Service, a price reporting agency, referring to the November midterm elections.Aside from the political consequences, a sustained rise in gas prices could affect how businesses and consumers view the economy. In July, falling gas prices were a key part of the better-than-expected reading of the Consumer Price Index, offering a brief glimmer of hope to those looking for signs that inflation has peaked.Among the West Coast refineries that have shut down is one in Washington State run by Phillips 66 and two near San Francisco that are run by Valero and Chevron. Not every shutdown is predictable. A fire at a BP-owned refinery near Toledo, Ohio, shuttered that facility in September. It may not reopen until early 2023, Bloomberg News reported late last month, citing unnamed sources. In Ohio, the average price of gas rose to $3.939 a gallon on Friday from $3.609 a month earlier.Chevron and Phillips 66 said they do not comment on the day-to-day operations of their refineries. BP and Valero didn’t immediately respond to questions about the refineries. The refineries do not typically release much detail about closings or when they expect to reopen, analysts said.Prices in California and other states have fallen slightly since Gov. Gavin Newsom said last week that the state could start producing its winter blend of gasoline early, which is cheaper for refiners to produce since it contains fewer of the additives that protect against environmental conditions in the summer. The introduction of the winter blend, paired with the potential for slowed demand in fall and winter driving seasons, could help bring prices back down, said Devin Gladden, a spokesman for AAA.On Friday, Mr. Newsom said on Twitter that he would call a special session of the California Legislature to weigh “a windfall profits tax” on energy companies that are profiting from high prices, a move that some Democratic lawmakers in Washington have also called for. Britain announced a similar tax on the “extraordinary” profits of oil companies in May.On Wednesday, the group known as OPEC Plus, which includes Saudi Arabia and Russia, said that it would slash oil production by two million barrels a day, a decision that drew an immediate condemnation from the Biden administration. On Thursday, Mr. Biden told reporters that he was “disappointed” by the decision, and the White House also said it would release more oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the country’s stockpile of crude oil.Though oil prices have climbed sharply this week, the recent increase in gas prices began in September, well before the OPEC Plus decision.The overall impact of the announcement remains “a big maybe,” Mr. Gladden said. It could lead to a short-term rise in prices, but whether or not it is sustained depends on how energy investors react to the cut, he said. Analysts have noted that several OPEC Plus members are already unable to meet production quotas.Crude oil prices account for more than half of the cost of gasoline. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, the U.S. benchmark stood at about $93 a barrel on Friday, well below its peak of $130 in March but still up more than 23 percent since the beginning of the year.“This really hasn’t been about crude,” Mr. Kloza, the Oil Price Information Service founder, said of the most recent gain. “It’s been about the inability to refine a lot of that crude for various reasons.”Mr. Kloza said he did not think an “extraordinary spike” in prices was ahead, particularly one comparable to what consumers experienced earlier in the year. Still, prices are subject to several variables —  many of which, including hurricanes or wildfires that lead to major refinery shutdowns, are unpredictable.“If we lost one of these big refineries that can run 500,000 barrels a day of crude or more, it can really haunt the markets,” Mr. Kloza said. More

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      Biden’s Choice After OPEC Cuts: Woo Saudi Arabia, or Retaliate?

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      The announcement by the Saudi-led OPEC Plus energy cartel that it would slash oil production was widely seen in Washington as a stab in the back of President Biden.WASHINGTON — President Biden faces a dicey choice following the decision by the world’s oil giants to slash production just weeks before critical midterm elections that could turn on the price of gasoline: Should he stick with his policy of wooing Saudi Arabia or take measures to retaliate?The announcement by the Saudi-led OPEC Plus energy cartel that it would pump two million fewer barrels a day was widely seen in Washington as a stab in the back of Mr. Biden, who just three months ago jettisoned his vow to make Saudi Arabia a “pariah” and traveled there to court the kingdom’s autocratic crown prince.The question now confronting Mr. Biden is what to do about this seeming betrayal. In intentionally bland comments, he told reporters on Thursday only that he was “disappointed” and considering unspecified “alternatives.” But fellow Democrats, frustrated by what they see as the president’s excessive deference to the Saudis and eager to demonstrate toughness before their constituents head to the polls, increased pressure on Mr. Biden to punish Riyadh.“He should just start withdrawing stuff,” Representative Tom Malinowski, Democrat of New Jersey, said in an interview, referring to the American military presence in Saudi Arabia. “That would get their attention. Action for action. Call their bluff. Do they really think they can trade their American security partner for a Russian security partner or a Chinese security partner? They know they can’t do that.”Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the majority leader, said Saudi Arabia’s decision to ally with President Vladimir V. Putin’s Russia to shore up oil prices was a grave mistake.“What Saudi Arabia did to help Putin continue to wage his despicable, vicious war against Ukraine will long be remembered by Americans,” he said. “We are looking at all the legislative tools to best deal with this appalling and deeply cynical action.”Mr. Biden gave little indication of how far he would go.Asked about the production cut on Thursday, Mr. Biden said that “we are looking at alternatives” to oil from OPEC Plus countries. “We haven’t made up our minds yet,” he said.His administration counseled caution, holding out hope that at the end of the day, the cut in daily production would in reality amount to maybe half of the two million barrel goal because some oil producers were already not meeting their targets. Rather than penalizing Saudi Arabia, Biden aides appeared focused more on countering its move by releasing more oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and possibly seeking rapprochement with oil-pumping Venezuela.“We are looking at alternatives” to oil from OPEC Plus countries, President Biden said on Thursday, adding, “We haven’t made up our minds yet.”Doug Mills/The New York TimesThe administration also appeared to be considering moves to pressure domestic energy companies to reduce retail prices, possibly including limits on the export of petroleum products. “We’re not announcing any steps on that front, but there are measures that we will continue to assess,” Brian Deese, the president’s national economic adviser, told reporters.The OPEC Plus decision could hardly have come at a worse time politically for Mr. Biden, who had staked his argument for the midterm campaign in part on falling gas prices. Ron Klain, the White House chief of staff, has methodically tracked the price at the pump for months as it has declined, and Democrats felt renewed momentum as a result.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsWith the primaries over, both parties are shifting their focus to the general election on Nov. 8.Standing by Herschel Walker: After a report that the G.O.P. Senate candidate in Georgia paid for a girlfriend’s abortion in 2009, Republicans rallied behind him, fearing that a break with the former football star could hurt the party’s chances to take the Senate.Democrats’ Closing Argument: Buoyed by polls that show the end of Roe v. Wade has moved independent voters their way, vulnerable House Democrats have reoriented their campaigns around abortion rights in the final weeks before the election.G.O.P. Senate Gains: After signs emerged that Republicans were making gains in the race for the Senate, the polling shift is now clear, writes Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst.Trouble for Nevada Democrats: The state has long been vital to the party’s hold on the West. Now, Democrats are facing potential losses up and down the ballot.But gas prices had already begun inching back up even before the Saudi-led move, in part because of refinery issues on the West Coast and in the Midwest. The national average rose by seven cents to $3.86 since Monday as demand increased and stocks fell, although it remained far below the peak topping $5 a gallon in June.The Saudis maintain that the production cut was not meant as a shot at Mr. Biden and have sent papers and charts to administration officials justifying it. With the price of oil falling just below $80 a barrel in recent days, the Saudis told American officials that they worried it would slide further into the $70s and possibly the $60s, making their own energy-dependent budget unsustainable..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.Biden administration officials fear the real crisis might come in December when a price cap organized by the United States to restrict Russian oil profits goes into effect and a European Union ban on the purchase of Russian crude is set to begin.Mr. Biden’s options to counter the production cut are limited and carry trade-offs. He has already ordered more oil to be released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but since the reserve is now at its lowest level in four decades, that risks shortages in case of war or a natural disaster like another hurricane.He could push to limit exports of processed fuels like gasoline and diesel, which would expand supplies and lower prices domestically. But that would harm trading partners, particularly the European allies attempting to wean themselves off Russian energy and amplify global inflationary pressures.The administration could open more federal lands and waters to drilling and soften regulations on drilling, exploration and pipeline laying to increase domestic production, although that could incite a backlash among environmentalists.“They need to loosen regulations, they need to release all those permits sitting on someone’s desk for drilling on federal lands, and they need to allow the Keystone XL pipeline to come down to deliver the Canadian oil sands to American consumers,” said Darlene Wallace, a board member of the Oklahoma Energy Producers Alliance. “And the president needs to encourage investors to invest in the oil business.”Easing sanctions on Iran and Venezuela could free up more than a million barrels of oil a day, which would help lower prices and potentially replace some of the Russian barrels now sold to Chinese and Indian refineries. But nuclear talks with Iran have stalled with scant hope of a breakthrough, and the prospects of a deal with Venezuela are murky.Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the Saudi energy minister, at the OPEC Plus meeting on Wednesday. The Saudis have said they are worried about further drops in oil prices making their energy-dependent budget unsustainable.Christian Bruna/EPA, via ShutterstockThe Wall Street Journal has reported that the Biden administration was preparing to scale down sanctions to allow Chevron to resume pumping in exchange for a move toward elections in 2024. But in a statement, the White House emphasized that “there are no plans to change our sanctions policy without constructive steps from the Maduro regime.”In brief comments with reporters on Thursday, Mr. Biden did not deny a possible change toward Venezuela. “There’s a lot of alternatives,” he said. “We haven’t made up our mind yet.” Asked what Venezuela would have to do to persuade the United States to ease sanctions, Mr. Biden said, “A lot.”The president defended his decision to travel in July to Saudi Arabia, where he exchanged a fist bump with its de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, despite a campaign pledge to isolate the kingdom for the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi journalist and United States resident killed on what the C.I.A. said were Prince Mohammed’s orders.While not formally announced, American officials said privately at the time that they had an understanding that Saudi Arabia and other energy powers would ramp up production by fall.But Mr. Biden insisted again on Thursday that he had other goals in going to Saudi Arabia, such as encouraging diplomatic relations with Israel.“The trip was not essentially for oil,” the president said. “The trip was about the Middle East and about Israel and rationalization of positions.”“But it is a disappointment,” he added about the production cut, “and it says that there are problems.”Mr. Malinowski and other Democrats said the president should go further than just expressing disappointment. He introduced a bill with Representatives Sean Casten and Susan Wild, Democrats from Illinois and Pennsylvania, requiring the removal of American troops and defensive systems from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.The bill was more a statement than anything else since Congress is out of session until the election, but Mr. Malinowski said he patterned it after a similar measure introduced by Republicans in 2020 and used by President Donald J. Trump to pressure Saudi Arabia to decrease production at a time when low oil prices were a concern.Mr. Malinowski said Mr. Biden should similarly use the legislation to push the Saudis. “The point of our bill is to give him the ammunition he needs. I hope he uses it,” Mr. Malinowski said. “He took a risk. He put himself out there for this relationship, and this is not how a friend should respond. So maybe they should find some new friends.”Clifford Krauss More

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      Fact-Checking a GOP Attack Ad That Blames a Democrat for Inflation

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      In a Nevada tossup race that could help decide whether Republicans gain control of the House, a super PAC aligned with congressional G.O.P. leaders recently mounted an economically driven attack against Representative Dina Titus.In a 30-second ad released on Saturday, the Congressional Leadership Fund accused Ms. Titus, a Democrat who represents Las Vegas, of supporting runaway spending that has exacerbated inflation.Here’s a fact check.WHAT WAS SAID“Economists said excessive spending would lead to inflation, but she didn’t listen. Titus recklessly spent trillions of taxpayer dollars,” the ad’s narrator says, and, later: “Now we’re paying the price. Higher prices on everything. Economy in recession. Dina Titus. She spent big … and we got burned.”This lacks context. The implication here is that Democrats’ policies led to inflation. We recently put this question to our economics correspondent, Ben Casselman, who said: “True, although we can argue all day about how much.”He explains: “Here’s what I think we can say with confidence: Inflation soared last year, primarily for a bunch of pandemic-related reasons — snarled supply chains, shifts in consumer demand — but also at least in part because of all the stimulus money that we poured into the economy. Then, just when most forecasters expected inflation to start falling, it took off again because of the jump in oil prices tied to the war in Ukraine.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsWith the primaries over, both parties are shifting their focus to the general election on Nov. 8.A Focus on Crime: In the final phase of the midterm campaign, Republicans are stepping up their attacks about crime rates, but Democrats are pushing back.Pennsylvania Governor’s Race: Doug Mastriano, the Trump-backed G.O.P. nominee, is being heavily outspent and trails badly in polling. National Republicans are showing little desire to help him.Megastate G.O.P. Rivalry: Against the backdrop of their re-election bids, Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas and Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida are locked in an increasingly high-stakes contest of one-upmanship.Rushing to Raise Money: Senate Republican nominees are taking precious time from the campaign trail to gather cash from lobbyists in Washington — and close their fund-raising gap with Democratic rivals.“Now, inflation is falling again. Overall consumer prices were up just 0.1 percent in August, and a separate measure showed prices falling in July. But a lot of that is because of the recent drop in gas prices, which we all know could reverse at any time. So-called core inflation, which sets aside volatile food and energy prices, actually accelerated in August.“All of which means we don’t know how long the recent pause in inflation will last, and we definitely don’t know whether Biden will get credit for it if it does.”Backing up a bit, it’s worth noting that not all of the stimulus spending was at the direction of President Biden and Democrats. The first two rounds were approved during the Trump administration. And, economists were not united in warning about inflation.As for the economy being in recession? “Most economists still don’t think the United States meets the formal definition,” Mr. Casselman wrote in July, and he said that remained true as we head into October. But such calls are only made in retrospect. “Even if we are already in a recession, we might not know it — or, at least, might not have official confirmation of it — until next year,” Mr. Casselman said.What was said“Tax breaks for luxury electric cars.”This is true. The Inflation Reduction Act contains a tax credit for electric vehicles. Their final assembly must be completed in North America to be eligible for the credit, which, indeed, extends to several luxury automakers. The list includes Audi, BMW, Lincoln and Mercedes, but also non-luxury models like the Ford Escape and Nissan Leaf. What about Tesla? It made the list of 2022 models, but it has already reached a federal cap of the number of vehicles eligible for the credit, according to the Energy Department.What was said“Even a billion dollars to prisoners, including the Boston Bomber.”This is exaggerated. Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, who was convicted of helping carry out the 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, received a $1,400 Covid-19 stimulus rebate from the federal government in June 2021. The money was part of the American Rescue Plan Act, which President Biden signed into law after it passed the House on a mostly party-line vote, with Ms. Titus supporting it.But what the Republican attack ad failed to disclose was that Mr. Tsarnaev was required by a federal judge to return the money as part of restitution payments to his victims. Another glaring omission was the fact that inmates were previously eligible for Covid-19 relief payments when former President Donald J. Trump was in office, though the Internal Revenue Service and some Republicans had later tried to rescind the payments. A federal judge thwarted those efforts, ruling that inmates could keep the payments.Those nuances haven’t stopped Republicans from latching onto the issue of inmates receiving Covid-19 payments against Democrats in key races across the nation, including Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia and Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona. More

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      Is It the Gas Prices, Stupid?

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      A simpler explanation for a Democratic turnaround.Democratic fortunes have improved markedly over the last few months, with the party overtaking Republicans on the generic congressional ballot in the aftermath of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.But there’s another, simpler explanation for a Democratic turnaround, one that lines up nearly as well as abortion: gas prices.The price of gas fell for 98 straight days beginning June 14 — 10 days before the court’s Dobbs decision on Roe. At the time, the average price of gas nationally was over $5 per gallon. Prices were at $3.67 by the end of the streak.While few would dispute that the Dobbs decision helped energize Democratic voters, it seems clear that falling gas prices have helped as well. After all, voters say that the economy and inflation — not abortion — are the most important issues facing the country. There’s a longstanding relationship between economic performance and the president’s standing. As James Carville once said: It’s the economy, stupid.So is it the gas prices, stupid? It’s hard not to wonder after looking at this chart by my colleague Francesca Paris.Tracking Biden’s approval and gas prices More

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      Targeting ‘Woke Capital’

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      West Virginia’s banning of five big Wall Street banks for doing business with the state is yet another step toward a politicized world of red brands and blue brands. Florida’s DeSantis: Make profits great again.Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated PressStates take action against ‘woke C.E.O.s’ Five big Wall Street firms woke up to a headache yesterday, and the ailment seems to be spreading fast. Riley Moore, the outspoken treasurer of West Virginia, announced that Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, BlackRock, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo were banned from doing business with the state because they had stopped supporting the coal industry, reports The Times’s David Gelles.The banks have sharply reduced financing for new coal projects, while BlackRock has been reducing its actively managed holdings in coal companies since 2020. Coal, the most polluting fossil fuel, has become less profitable in recent years.Some of the firms do business with West Virginia in various ways. JPMorgan, for example, handles some banking services for West Virginia’s public university. But the dollar figures are relatively small, and the law does not affect the holdings of the state’s pension fund.The development is yet another step toward a politicized world of red brands and blue brands. In these hyperpartisan times, companies are increasingly being caught between conservatives and progressives, and some brands are being typecast as Republican or Democratic. The timing of the announcement was striking, coming just hours after Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who had been the chief Democratic holdout on climate legislation, relented and agreed to sign on.Meanwhile in Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis unloaded on the supposedly “woke” ideology of some financial services firms, criticizing E.S.G. investing and announcing plans for legislation that would “prohibit big banks, credit card companies and money transmitters from discriminating against customers for their religious, political or social beliefs.” At a news conference this week, he also said he wanted to prohibit the state’s pension fund managers from considering environmental factors when making investment decisions. Instead, he said, they need to be focusing only on “maximizing the return on investment.”Businesses now “marginalize” people because of political disagreements, DeSantis said. “That is not the way you can run an economy effectively.” He singled out PayPal, which has cut off accounts associated with far-right groups that participated in the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, and GoFundMe, which blocked donations to a group supporting truckers who occupied Ottawa this year.HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING Amazon’s shares soar as the company says consumer demand remains strong. The positive comments from C.E.O. Andrew Jassy and other top executives caused investors to shrug off the fact that the giant internet retailer reported its slowest quarterly sales growth in two decades, and has cut nearly 100,000 workers. Apple’s quarterly results were also better than expected, as Big Tech’s profits have been resilient even as the economy has slowed.The eurozone economy grew faster than expected, but so did inflation. Positive G.D.P. growth for the region, a day after the U.S. reported that economic growth slumped for the second quarter in a row, relieved some worries about growing stagflation. Still, inflation in the eurozone hit 8.9 percent in July compared with a year ago, a fresh record.The Biden administration plans to offer updated booster shots in September. With reformulated shots from Pfizer and Moderna on the horizon, the F.D.A. has decided that Americans under 50 should wait to receive second boosters.Read More About Oil and Gas PricesPrices Drop: U.S. gas prices have been on the decline, offering some relief to drivers. But weather, war and demand will influence how long it lasts.Stock Market: As financial markets around the world fell this spring amid worries about inflation and rising interest rates, energy was the only sector gaining ground. Summer Driving Season: The spike in gas prices is being driven in part by vacationers hitting the road. Here’s what our reporter saw on a recent trip.Gas Tax Holiday: President Biden called on Congress to temporarily suspend the federal gas tax, but experts remain skeptical the move would benefit consumers much, because tax is such a small percentage of the price you pay at the pump..A new book reignites a debate about how L.A. Times editors handled a 2017 exposé. Paul Pringle, a veteran reporter at the L.A. Times, writes in his book “Bad City” that top editors tried to slow-walk the paper’s initial groundbreaking article, which detailed how the dean of the University of Southern California’s medical school used drugs with young people.Trader Joe’s workers at a Massachusetts store form a union. It is the only one of the supermarket chain’s more than 500 stores with a formal union, but similar moves are afoot elsewhere, just as the union campaign has spread at Starbucks. Trader Joe’s will face at least one more union vote soon, at a Minneapolis store next month, and workers at a store in Colorado filed an election petition this week.Big oil’s big profitsOil companies are reporting surging profits, even as consumers and world leaders are dealing with the hardships caused by higher energy prices.Buoyed by high oil and gas prices, the energy sector is expected to have swelled earnings by more than 250 percent in the second quarter. Exxon Mobil and Chevron, the U.S.’s two largest oil companies, reported record profits this morning, with Exxon’s profit more than tripling from a year ago. Europe’s biggest oil companies, Shell and TotalEnergies, yesterday reported a combined $21 billion in profits.The fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to significant financial benefits for energy companies and their investors. The pain of rising energy prices and shortages, though, has been felt particularly strongly by consumers and businesses in Europe, which received roughly half of Russia’s oil exports before the invasion. In Asia and Africa, higher energy prices could push millions of people back into energy poverty, the International Energy Agency warned last month.It’s also led to claims of profiteering. President Biden said last month that oil companies were benefiting from their own underinvestment in refining capacity. In Britain, Boris Johnson, the outgoing prime minister, imposed a windfall tax on major oil and gas companies. But a top contender to replace him, Liz Truss, said that she opposed the tax because it would send “the wrong signal to the world,” and that Shell should be encouraged to invest in Britain.Oil companies have pointed the finger back at politicians. Ben van Beurden, Shell’s chief executive, said yesterday that energy prices were high in part because of government policies that discouraged investment in oil and natural gas in recent years.Gas prices in the U.S. have fallen over the last month, and there are some indications that more relief could be ahead. Citigroup said in a research note today that it expected growth in the supply of oil to outpace weaker demand. Still, geopolitical factors and the weather could change the trajectory of prices, particularly if the U.S. has an active hurricane season that disrupts refining capacity. “Just a few of these risks materializing could work up a continued perfect storm of high volatility,” Citigroup said.“There is a principle at stake. What can you buy if you have unlimited cash? Can you bend every rule? Can you take apart monuments?”— Stefan Lewis, a former member of Rotterdam’s City Council, explaining the outrage over the city’s decision, which has since been reversed, to temporarily dismantle a bridge to accommodate Jeff Bezos and his superyacht.The dark secrets of corporate subsidy deals Every year, state and local officials negotiate about $95 billion in economic development deals, competing with one another to recruit companies to their communities with lucrative subsidies in exchange for their business.But some corporations are becoming increasingly aggressive about forcing officials to sign nondisclosure agreements that could end up hurting the communities that the businesses were supposed to help, according to a new report by the American Economic Liberties Project, a progressive antitrust advocacy group. The N.D.A.s sometimes prohibit officials from disclosing basic information about a corporation, like its name and the type of business it’s building, Pat Garofalo, an author of the report, told DealBook.These N.D.A.s prevent community members, like workers and local businesses, from sharing their input on the deal until after it is completed. One recent example is the $4 billion battery factory that Panasonic will build in Kansas, which will get nearly $1 billion in subsidies. Before the deal was completed, Panasonic was also negotiating with Oklahoma, and the states were in a bidding war over the electronics giant’s business. But lawmakers could not talk about the corporation on the other side of the bargaining table in public — and sometimes didn’t even know its name. In April, Oklahoma officials complained that they had two hours to contemplate a complex incentive package worth $700 million, or about 8 percent of the state budget. “How am I supposed to go back to my constituents and say, ‘I gave away three-quarters of a billion dollars to a company that I don’t even know their name?’ Is that responsible?” State Representative Collin Walke said during an appropriations meeting.Some states have introduced bills to ban these N.D.A.s, which the report calls “an extremely common tactic” in development deals. This year, such legislation was introduced in New York, Michigan, Illinois, and Florida. New York’s State Senate voted unanimously to approve a ban. Garofalo thinks the New York lawmakers were galvanized by the Amazon HQ2 bid that fell apart in 2019. But he notes that communities don’t have to wait for politicians to fix the problem. Engaged citizens have used public meeting and records laws to solve subsidy mysteries, and sometimes a little transparency is all it takes, Garofalo said. “When the public does get a say,” he told DealBook, “the deals are better, or bad deals are knocked off right away.”THE SPEED READ Deals“Private equity giant Carlyle’s latest big play: Small Brooklyn buildings” (The Real Deal)Ernst & Young’s plan to split is reportedly being held up by debt issues. (WSJ)Newsmax renewed a deal to be carried by Verizon’s Fios, days before its rival One America News is to be dropped. Both are known for their loyalty to former President Trump. (NYT)PolicyThe private equity industry is objecting to a proposed U.S. tax increase on carried-interest income. (NYT)“Dry Fountains, Cold Pools, Less Beer? Germans Tip-Toe Up the Path to Energy Savings” (NYT)The big question is not whether the U.S. is in a recession. It’s whether the economy’s problems will worsen. (NYT’s The Morning)Best of the restArchitects have a reimagined vision for the former Deutsche Bank atrium at 60 Wall Street, with plans to make it look less like a Mediterranean spa and more like a Singapore airport. (NYT)Instagram is rolling back some product changes after celebrities like Kylie Jenner and Kim Kardashian criticized them. (NYT)TV showrunners are demanding that studios create protocols to protect employees in states where abortion has been outlawed. (Variety)Richard Rosenthal, the top defense lawyer for dangerous dogs, has even frustrated animal rights groups. (NYT)We’d like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com. More

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      in Elections

      Why Republicans Are Having Gas Pains

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      Until just the other day, Republicans and conservative media loved, just loved talking about the price of gasoline. Indeed, “Remember how cheap gas used to be under Trump?” became a sort of all-purpose answer to everything. Is there now overwhelming evidence that the former president conspired in a violent attempt to overthrow the 2020 election? “Real America doesn’t care about the January 6th Committee. Gas is over $5 a gallon!” declared Representative Jim Jordan.But now gas prices are falling. They’re down more than 50 cents a gallon at the pump; wholesale prices, whose changes normally show up later in retail prices, are down even more, suggesting that prices will keep falling for at least the next few weeks. And there’s a palpable sense of panic on Fox News, which has been reduced to whining about how the White House is taking a “victory lap.”Actually, from what I can see, Biden administration officials are being remarkably restrained in pointing out the good news (which is probably a result of a slowing global economy). The larger point, however, is that Republican politicians’ focus on gas prices is profoundly stupid. And if it’s coming back to bite them, that’s just poetic justice.Why is focusing on gas prices stupid? Let me count the ways.First, while presidential policy can have big effects on many things, the cost of filling your gas tank isn’t one of them. For the most part, gasoline prices reflect the price of crude oil — and crude prices are set on world markets, which is one reason inflation has soared around the world, not just in the United States. Government spending in the Biden administration’s early months may have contributed to overall U.S. inflation — we can argue about how much — but has hardly anything to do with gas prices.Second, while gas was indeed cheap in 2020, it was cheap for a very bad reason: Global demand for oil was depressed because the world economy was reeling from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.Third, even before the pandemic struck, gas prices were unsustainably low.Little-known fact: Prices at the pump plunged during President Barack Obama’s second term, falling from about $3.70 a gallon in mid-2014 — around $4.50 in 2022 dollars — to $2.23 on the eve of the 2016 election. News reports at the time marveled at Obama’s diffidence about claiming credit.What happened? Mostly a boom in fracking, which increased U.S. oil production so much that it drove prices down around the world. As it turned out, however, that production boom didn’t make financial sense. Energy companies borrowed huge sums to invest in new drilling but never generated enough revenue to justify the cost. The fracking industry lost hundreds of billions even before the pandemic struck.So high gas prices weren’t President Biden’s fault, and given the disappearance of the forces that used to keep gas cheap, it’s hard to think of any policy — short of creating a global depression — that would bring prices down to $2 a gallon, or even $3 a gallon. Not that Republicans are offering any real policy proposals anyway.But the G.O.P. nonetheless went for the cheap shot of trying to make the midterm elections largely about prices at the pump. And this focus on gas is now giving the party a bellyache, as gas prices come down.It is, after all, hard to spend month after month insisting that Biden deserves all the blame for rising gas prices, then deny him any credit when they come down. The usual suspects are, of course, trying, but it’s not likely to go well.Some right-wing commentators are trying to pivot to a longer view, pointing out that gas prices are still much higher than they were in 2020. This happens to be true. But so much of their messaging has depended on voter amnesia — on their supporters not remembering what was really going on in 2020 — that I have my doubts about how effective this line will be.More broadly, many Wall Street analysts expect to see a sharp drop in inflation over the next few months, reflecting multiple factors, from falling used car prices to declining shipping costs, not just gas prices. Market expectations of near-term inflation have come way down.If the analysts and the markets are right, we’re probably headed for a period in which inflation headlines are better than the true state of affairs; it’s not clear whether underlying inflation has come down much, if at all. But that’s not an argument Republicans, who have done all they can to dumb down the inflation debate, are well placed to make.This has obvious implications for the midterm elections. Republicans have been counting on inflation to give them a huge victory, despite having offered no explanation of what they’d do about it. But if you look at the generic ballot — which probably doesn’t yet reflect falling gas prices — rather than Biden’s approval rating, the midterms look surprisingly competitive.Maybe real Americans do care about violent attacks on democracy, overturning Roe v. Wade and so on after all.If we continue to get good news on inflation, November may look very different from what everyone has been expecting.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More