Subterms
When he ran for the Senate four years ago, Democrat Beto O’Rourke won just 61 percent in the primary. In Hidalgo County, on the border with Mexico, he won just 50 percent. But today, with two-thirds of the Hidalgo vote in, Mr. O’Rourke was at 81 percent, suggesting he would do far better in the […] More
When he ran for the Senate four years ago, Democrat Beto O’Rourke won just 61 percent in the primary. In Hidalgo County, on the border with Mexico, he won just 50 percent. But today, with two-thirds of the Hidalgo vote in, Mr. O’Rourke was at 81 percent, suggesting he would do far better in the […] More
When he ran for the Senate four years ago, Democrat Beto O’Rourke won just 61 percent in the primary. In Hidalgo County, on the border with Mexico, he won just 50 percent. But today, with two-thirds of the Hidalgo vote in, Mr. O’Rourke was at 81 percent, suggesting he would do far better in the […] More
When he ran for the Senate four years ago, Democrat Beto O’Rourke won just 61 percent in the primary. In Hidalgo County, on the border with Mexico, he won just 50 percent. But today, with two-thirds of the Hidalgo vote in, Mr. O’Rourke was at 81 percent, suggesting he would do far better in the […] More
When he ran for the Senate four years ago, Democrat Beto O’Rourke won just 61 percent in the primary. In Hidalgo County, on the border with Mexico, he won just 50 percent. But today, with two-thirds of the Hidalgo vote in, Mr. O’Rourke was at 81 percent, suggesting he would do far better in the […] More
As President Biden delivers his first formal State of the Union address, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine escalates and the midterms begin in earnest in Texas.An entrance to a voting site in Laredo, Texas, today.Jason Garza for The New York TimesThe first votes of 2022 Russian missiles are terrorizing Ukraine. President Biden hopes to rally the nation in his first formal State of the Union address. And the first votes of the 2022 midterm elections will be counted tonight.This is an extraordinary political moment, both at home and abroad.Those first votes of the midterms are being cast and counted today in Texas, in Republican and Democratic primaries, providing the first morsels of data on what voters are prioritizing amid multiple national and international crises.Our colleagues have been tracking the turnout, major themes and top races as part of our live Texas election coverage tonight. Keep up with the results as they come in.Here are some of the highlights:How will new voting laws affect turnout?Republican legislators throughout the country responded to former President Donald Trump’s baseless claims of election fraud by passing legislation restricting voting access. In Texas, voters have already seen higher rates of rejection for absentee ballot applications. Now, the ballots themselves have been rejected at a higher rate than usual. Nick Corasaniti reports.Most voters will need to vote in person, or have already done so, since Texas’ criteria for qualifying for mail-in voting are unusually narrow. Maggie Astor writes.Do Democrats need to keep to the political center?The highest-profile progressive challenger of the night, Jessica Cisneros, isn’t focusing her early messaging on progressive causes. Instead, she’s going after the new vulnerabilities of the incumbent Democrat, Henry Cuellar, who has become ensnared in an F.B.I. investigation, though its target isn’t totally clear. Jonathan Weisman reports from Laredo.Dozens of Hispanic voters and candidates in South Texas explained why the Republican Party has been making inroads in the region. Trump-style grievance politics has been resonating with Hispanic residents in the Rio Grande Valley. Jennifer Medina reports from Brownsville.Abortion specifically seems to be moving Hispanic voters in South Texas toward Republicans. Edgar Sandoval writes from Laredo.Beto O’Rourke, a Democrat, made headlines in 2019 in the crowded presidential primary when he declared, “Hell yes, we’re going to take your AR-15.” Now, he’s running for governor in a state where Republicans have the advantage. J. David Goodman reports from Tyler.One candidate for the State Board of Education is taking a unique approach to rising above partisan politics — he’s running in both major party’s primaries. Maggie Astor writes.Will appeasing Trump’s base in the primary cost Republicans in November?Representative Dan Crenshaw, a Republican, is more likely to face a threat from a far-right challenger in his redrawn district in the Houston suburbs.Annie Mulligan for The New York TimesRedistricting has created fewer competitive districts, and therefore more races where winning the primary is the most important contest. For Democrats and Republicans, that elevates the importance of campaigning to the most ideologically focused voters. Still, Representative Dan Crenshaw, a Republican, says he refuses to “toe the line,” and has been feuding with Trump allies like Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia. Shane Goldmacher reports from The Woodlands, Texas.Gov. Greg Abbott has been pushing Texas even farther to the right, and it helped him pick up Trump’s endorsement for re-election. Tonight’s results will reveal how those efforts have resonated with actual Republican voters. J. David Goodman reports from Austin.For the Texas attorney general, Ken Paxton, his allegiance to Trump may or may not be enough to win the Republican primary outright. J. David Goodman reports from Midland.What to read tonightOur colleagues are tracking developments in Ukraine as part of our live coverage. Thousands of civilians are fleeing Kyiv as Moscow intensifies its military attack and appears “to target civilian areas with increasingly powerful weapons.”The New York Times is also providing live updates and analysis on Biden’s State of the Union address tonight. Peter Baker writes that no president has delivered a State of the Union address “with such a large-scale and consequential land war underway in Europe since 1945.”Michael D. Shear reports that Biden will use the State of the Union address to “claim credit for a robust economy and a unified global response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, even as he acknowledges the pain of inflation.”A report commissioned by the Republican speaker of the Wisconsin Assembly “endorsed a host of debunked claims of fraud and false assertions about lawmakers’ power to decertify” Biden’s victory, Reid J. Epstein reports.Thanks for reading. We’ll see you tomorrow.— Blake & LeahWere you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here to get it delivered to your inbox.Is there anything you think we’re missing? Anything you want to see more of? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. More
The process behind calling elections: how The Times will report live election results during the 2022 primary season.The 2022 primary season begins on Tuesday with elections in Texas, and The New York Times will be reporting the results live on its website and apps. Here’s how it all works.The ResultsHow does The Times get live election results?Our live results are provided by The Associated Press. To produce its results, The A.P. combines data feeds from state and county websites with on-the-ground reporting by more than 4,000 correspondents who gather vote tallies from county clerks and other local officials after polls close. The Times has also occasionally published data from other results providers.How often are the results updated on election night?When The A.P. gets reports from states, it checks the vote totals for potential inconsistencies or errors. Then it sends the updated data to The Times and other customers about every one to three minutes. Calls projecting winners are sent immediately.Times journalists and engineers have written software that automatically downloads and publishes the results within seconds. Don’t worry about refreshing the page — the results will update automatically.Why do I see different vote counts on different websites?Not every news organization gets its election results from The A.P. like The Times does. There are two other election results providers used by news organizations: Edison Research and Decision Desk HQ. State or local election officials often display their own results as well.A Guide to the Texas PrimaryThe 2022 midterm elections begin with the state’s primary on March 1.Governor’s Race: Gov. Greg Abbott’s rightward shift will face a test in November. His likely challenger, Beto O’Rourke, is haunted by his 2020 presidential bid.Attorney General’s Race: Whether Ken Paxton can survive the G.O.P. primary may be the biggest test yet of Donald Trump’s continued power over voters.A Changing Landscape: Issues like abortion and immigration are driving Hispanic voters in Democratic strongholds to switch parties and prompting liberal candidates to shift tactics.A Deepening Divide: Competitive districts are being systemically erased across the country. Texas is an especially extreme example.New Voting Law: Officials have rejected thousands of absentee ballots based on new requirements, an alarming jump ahead of the primary.These sources can have different counts on election night, depending on the speed and scope of their reporting on a particular race. The results from all providers may not match until all the votes are counted.How does The Times track the share of votes reported in a given election?For years, election results providers used the percentage of precincts reporting to help give readers a sense of how many votes remain to be counted. Not anymore. The rise of mail-in voting and early voting has made the measure all but useless in many states, since absentee votes are usually not counted by precinct. This has often left readers and analysts at a loss about how many votes remain to be counted.This year, The Times will be publishing its own estimates for the number of remaining votes.Early in the night, these estimates will be based on our pre-election expectations for the eventual turnout, based on prior elections and early voting data. Once The A.P. reports that a county has largely completed its count, we will compare the reported vote with our pre-election expectations and gradually revise our expectations for the eventual turnout. We expect these estimates will be better than the old “precincts reporting” metric, but they are still only estimates. They will not usually reflect official information on the number of remaining votes.What’s a precinct?A precinct is the smallest level at which election results are reported. A precinct may be a few city blocks or an entire county.The WinnersHow does The Times call winners?In virtually every race, we rely on The A.P.’s calls. It employs a team of analysts, researchers and race callers who have a deep understanding of the states where they declare winners.In addition to overall vote totals, race callers pay attention to county-level votes, votes by type of ballot and where there are ballots left to count.The A.P. describes its decision-making process as “aimed at determining the answer to a single question: Can the trailing candidates catch the leader?” And only when the answer is an unquestionable “no” will The A.P. call the race.In a very small number of high-profile contests, The Times independently scrutinizes and evaluates A.P. race calls before making a projection.How can The Times call a race before any votes are counted?News organizations can project a winner, even with no results, if the race was not closely contested or the party or candidate has a history of consistent wins in the county or state. In some cases, The A.P. also relies on the results of a pre-election survey to help make a decision.Most major news media organizations, including The A.P., wait until polls are closed before calling a winner.The MapsWhy does my state’s election map look as if it’s dominated by a candidate even though that person is behind in the vote totals? More
The first election night of the 2022 midterms has some famous names and crowded primary races. Here’s a rundown.The midterms officially begin on Tuesday with the primary election in Texas. There are a few key themes to keep an eye on:What will Democratic turnout be like in the first midterm of Biden’s presidency?Hispanic voter turnout: Republicans exceeded expectations in garnering their support in 2020. Will that trend continue?How well will Republican candidates endorsed by Donald Trump fare against equally Trumpy competitors?In Texas, candidates only win the party nomination if they surpass 50 percent of the primary vote. If nobody reaches 50 percent on Tuesday, the top two vote getters will advance to a runoff on May 24.The more candidates in an individual race, the more splintered the vote gets — and the more likely a runoff becomes. To the chagrin of incumbents on both sides of the aisle, Texas’ primaries are crowded.In open-seat races, where the incumbent is either not running for re-election or an entirely new seat was drawn in redistricting, crowded primaries are expected and pretty uneventful. We’re watching those to see who qualifies for the higher-stakes runoff.But for incumbents and high-profile candidates, the question on Tuesday will be who avoids a runoff and by how much. For instance, in the governor’s race, how well Gov. Greg Abbott fares in his Republican primary will be a barometer of his strength before the general election. (For Beto O’Rourke, on the Democratic side, there’s little doubt he’ll sail to the nomination on Tuesday.)The most famous names might be found in the major statewide races, yet the most consequential results could come from House races. To be sure, Texas isn’t the political hot spot for House races that it was in 2020 — redistricting left the state with only one truly competitive district in the general election. But with Democrats’ majority relying on just a handful of seats, there’s no room for error.Here’s what we’ll be watching, with one warning: always be prepared for surprises. Abbott’s vindication?Gov. Greg Abbott is being challenged in the Texas Republican primary by Don Huffines, a former state senator, and Allen West, a former state party chairman.Meridith Kohut for The New York TimesRepublicans who have declared themselves Trump’s most loyal supporters have been lining up to take on Abbott — though Abbott hasn’t allowed them much room. He’s spent the last year trying to prove his pro-Trump bona fides. His efforts earned him Trump’s endorsement, though his challengers haven’t walked away quietly.A Guide to the Texas PrimaryThe 2022 midterm elections begin with the state’s primary on March 1.Governor’s Race: Gov. Greg Abbott’s rightward shift will face a test in November. His likely challenger, Beto O’Rourke, is haunted by his 2020 presidential bid.Attorney General’s Race: Whether Ken Paxton can survive the G.O.P. primary may be the biggest test yet of Donald Trump’s continued power over voters.A Changing Landscape: Issues like abortion and immigration are driving Hispanic voters in Democratic strongholds to switch parties and prompting liberal candidates to shift tactics.A Deepening Divide: Competitive districts are being systemically erased across the country. Texas is an especially extreme example.New Voting Law: Officials have rejected thousands of absentee ballots based on new requirements, an alarming jump ahead of the primary.Public polling is limited, but it seems pretty clear all the same that Abbott is the favorite, even if he isn’t guaranteed to avoid a runoff. He hit the 60 percent mark in two recent polls, with his Republican opponents — Don Huffines, a former state senator, and Allen West, a former state party chairman — floundering in the teens or single digits.Abbott’s margin of victory, or whether he avoids a runoff and gets to start the general election early, could signal the strength of his incumbency before he faces his likely Democratic opponent, O’Rourke.Beto’s second chanceThere’s little doubt that Beto O’Rourke will sail to the Democratic nomination for Texas governor on Tuesday.Brandon Bell/Getty ImagesO’Rourke, the former congressman, is likely to win the Democratic nomination outright. He won’t be the only name on the ballot, but he’s the only candidate who is a household name. The latest batch of polling shows him leading by more than 60 percentage points.As the general election begins, the question will be what O’Rourke has learned since his last campaign. He lost a statewide race in Texas in 2018, when Democrats enjoyed a favorable national environment. That environment will likely be tougher this time around, and he may have jeopardized some of his above-the-party-fray credentials by running for president in 2020. However, he’s now an experienced candidate who has the benefit of having built a campaign organization behind him, something he didn’t have in 2018.The other big namesSome of the most prominent Republican names are all clustered in a single race. As J. David Goodman explained over the weekend, Attorney General Ken Paxton is facing a challenge from Republicans including Representative Louie Gohmert; Eva Guzman, a former Texas Supreme Court justice; and George P. Bush, the grandson of George H.W. Bush.Like Abbott, Paxton has Trump’s endorsement. Unlike Abbott, Paxton isn’t polling far above and beyond his Republican challengers. This race is likely to go to a runoff.A Democratic challenger in the HouseJessica Cisneros, who is backed by progressives, is waging a rematch against Henry Cuellar, the longtime Democratic congressman.Ilana Panich-Linsman for The New York TimesJessica Cisneros’ primary challenge to Representative Henry Cuellar might be the most consequential race of the night. We’re just not sure what the consequences will be.Cisneros, who is backed by progressives like Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, is waging a rematch against Cuellar, a Democrat who has opposed abortion rights, after she fell narrowly short in the 2020 primary runoff. But, as Edgar Sandoval reported, conservative Democrats might have more luck in some parts of South Texas.When the F.B.I. raided Cuellar’s home and campaign office earlier this year, however, the political calculus shifted. The target of the F.B.I. investigation remains unclear, and national Republican groups are watching to see whether there’s a window for whoever emerges from the G.O.P. primary.That doesn’t necessarily mean that Cisneros would be more likely to hold the seat for Democrats than Cuellar. If national abortion rights organizations get involved in the race, they could provoke Republicans to play more aggressively in the district.“It doesn’t help in trying to actually change the political dynamic in Texas, when you have national organizations come in, brand themselves as liberal, wave blue flags, and say we’re going to turn stuff blue and flip it,” said Matt Angle, the founder of the Lone Star Project, which provides opposition research and other support to Democratic candidates in Texas.There’s a third Democrat on the ballot for the race, so it’s possible that neither Cuellar nor Cisneros clears Tuesday’s primary. If the race goes to a primary runoff, it would leave another few months for the Cisneros-Cuellar primary to unfold — and more time to see what happens with the F.B.I. investigation.The lone competitive House seatThere’s only one district that’s built to be truly competitive in 2022. But we probably won’t know who’s running in it until the May runoff.The incumbent in the 15th Congressional District in South Texas would have been Representative Vicente Gonzalez, a Democrat. However, he instead chose to run in a seat that was drawn to be slightly safer for Democrats after redistricting, leaving his current seat open.Trump narrowly carried the newly drawn 15th District in 2020. Republicans expect Monica De La Cruz to be their nominee, even if she doesn’t win outright on Tuesday. The Democratic race is more scattered, with multiple credible candidates, and will likely go to a runoff.There is one other House race that could be competitive come November: the 28th District, another South Texas seat. But while the 15th District was drawn to be competitive, the 28th was drawn to favor Democrats. However, if Democrats put forth a nominee who’s either plagued by scandal or ideologically out of step with the district, Republicans, boosted by a favorable national environment, might be able to seize the opportunity.What to read tonightJennifer Medina reports from Brownsville, Texas, where the politics of immigration is driving many Hispanic voters into the Republican Party.Redistricting is altering national politics in profound ways, as Shane Goldmacher describes in a look at Representative Dan Crenshaw, a Republican whose suburban Houston district grew less competitive after the Legislature drew new maps.The last two weeks have been a monumental time in Biden’s presidency. Our colleagues on the White House team reconstructed a chaotic past few days within an administration preparing for a State of the Union address while handling the crisis in Ukraine.briefing bookProtesters held the Ukrainian flag as they rallied Sunday in Washington, D.C., against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.Shuran Huang for The New York TimesThe latest in UkraineFighting is still raging in Ukraine, despite diplomatic efforts to arrange a cease-fire. Here are the latest developments:The U.S. Treasury Department froze assets of the Russian central bank and imposed sanctions on a sovereign wealth fund that is run by a close ally of Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin. The value of Russia’s currency fell by as much as 25 percent within hours.Belarus hosted face-to-face talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials, but they proved inconclusive, as did a phone call between Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, and Putin.Satellite photos showed a column of Russian forces bearing down on Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital. In Kharkiv, a city in the northeast of the country, videos showed the results of indiscriminate shelling of Ukrainian civilians.Thanks for reading. We’ll see you tomorrow.— Blake & LeahWere you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here to get it delivered to your inbox.Is there anything you think we’re missing? Anything you want to see more of? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. More
