Protectionism (Trade)

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      Markets Play Down the Hit From Trump’s Latest Trade Fight

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      Global markets are in a wait-and-see mode as President Trump vows to slap steel and aluminum tariffs, among other levies, on trading partners.President Trump has ramped up the tariff war. This time, the markets reaction has been muted.Pete Marovich for The New York TimesHope you enjoyed the Super Bowl on Sunday night, and congrats to the Philadelphia Eagles. The ads were better than the game. We’ve got a rundown below.I got into a substantive debate on Sunday with Joe Lonsdale, the venture capitalist and co-founder of Palantir, and other investors, about how carried interest is taxed. President Trump has vowed to eliminate the tax exemption, which I’ve been writing about since 2007. You can read excerpts from the debate below.The new phase of the tariff fight Get ready for the latest round of President Trump’s trade wars.On Air Force One on Sunday, en route to the Super Bowl, the president said he would impose a 25 percent levy on all steel and aluminum imports and that reciprocal tariffs on trading partners were coming.China has already retaliated against new Trump tariffs that took effect on Monday, leaving the global economy to grapple with the reality of worldwide trade battles.The latest: Beyond the metals levy — which is aimed squarely at China — Trump is also eyeing broad tariffs on Europe, Taiwan and others, as well as on industries and key commodities like copper, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.Beijing has retaliated with $14 billion worth of tariffs against select American exports, including, coal, liquid natural gas and farm equipment, a sign that the trade war could expand quickly. “Trade and tariff wars have no winners,” Guo Jiakun, a spokesman for China’s foreign ministry, said on Monday.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Are Trump’s Tariffs Inevitable?

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      World leaders and C.E.O.s are struggling to convince President-elect Donald Trump to shift his position on imposing new levies against America’s trade partners and its rivals.Advisers for Donald Trump are telling businesses to take the president-elect at his word on tariffs.Doug Mills/The New York TimesUnyielding on tariffs Investors appear largely unfazed by President-elect Donald Trump’s tough talk on tariffs, with the S&P 500 up more than 5 percent since Election Day.But world leaders and C.E.O.s are worried he could disrupt global trade and pummel profits — and feel they’re making little headway in warning him of the consequences.Companies have stepped up their lobbying to persuade Trump to go easy on tariffs, according to The Wall Street Journal. The president-elect warned last month that he would impose 25 percent levies on the country’s biggest trading partners, Canada and Mexico, if they didn’t tighten their borders and stem the flow of illegal migration to the U.S.In subsequent social media posts, he went after China and BRICS countries, too.Trump’s team is warning businesses to take him at his word on tariffs, The Journal reports. That suggests that Trump, who has called tariffs “the most beautiful word in the dictionary,” isn’t merely using tariff warnings as an opening salvo in trade negotiations.It also calls into question how much say Jamieson Greer, Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick and Marco Rubio — Trump’s picks for trade representative, and to run the Treasury, Commerce and State departments — will have in shaping Trump’s trade policy if his mind is already made up.Trump conceded that he “can’t guarantee” tariffs won’t hit consumers hard. That’s a concern among economists and big companies such as Walmart and Costco, who fear that levies could lead to price rises. This earnings season, analysts have been peppering corporate leaders about how tariffs might affect their businesses.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      The Fed Is Stuck Fighting the Last War

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      Mired in a battle to contain surging prices, the central bank also needs to be nimble enough for the economic downturns to come, our columnist says.The battle against inflation during the Biden years is almost behind us. But we’re in danger of learning the wrong lessons from it.The Federal Reserve, holding its last meeting of the year this coming week, has been fighting runaway consumer prices for nearly three years. So far, at least, it has managed an unusual feat: The rate of inflation has dropped sharply from its peak and there has been no recession.Yet the Fed is stuck in a difficult place. With prices still rising faster than the central bank’s 2 percent target, the incoming Trump administration will be hypersensitive about inflation, which was a decisive factor in the November elections. At the same time, the new administration’s policies on tariffs and immigration could set off another inflation surge. So the Fed must remain acutely vigilant on the inflation front.But it will have to keep experimenting, to be ready for the curve balls coming from future recessions. Some economists believe the Fed would gain flexibility if it reconsidered its 2 percent inflation target, though they say the central bank can’t take that step now because it is under too much pressure to preserve its own institutional independence.Still, a single-minded focus on inflation could leave the Fed without the right tools for coping with economic downturns ahead.The Fed’s predicament reminds me of a general who is endlessly fighting the last war — conscientiously dissecting the tactics of recent battles and failing to prepare properly for the next ones.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Canada’s Plan To Avoid Trump’s Tariffs Takes Shape

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      Two weeks after a Mar-a-Lago dinner with Donald J. Trump, details of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s plan to stave off a showdown with the United States are emerging.Canada is working on a broad plan, including drones and police dogs, to address concerns raised by President-elect Donald J. Trump about the shared border between the two nations, underscoring the urgency of avoiding threatened tariffs that would send its economy into meltdown. Mr. Trump has made it clear that he expects America’s neighbors to keep undocumented migrants and drugs from entering the United States. In a closely watched meeting between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada and the leaders of the country’s provinces on Wednesday, Mr. Trudeau and senior members of his government said that they would come up with measures to fortify the border. The Canadian government will flesh out details, figure out a price tag, establish a timeline and then present the plan to the incoming Trump administration before Mr. Trump’s inauguration next month, according to two officials with knowledge of the discussions, who asked not to be identified describing internal deliberations. Details of the costs of these measures will be shared on Monday, when the country’s finance minister announces an interim budget, the officials said. The measures under consideration include better controlling border crossings by deploying drones and canine units and reducing unnecessary foot traffic between the two countries, according to the two officials, who listened in on the virtual government meeting.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      JD Vance, Elon Musk and the Future of America

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      Beneath all the furor around Donald Trump’s appointments — Matt Gaetz down and out, Pete Hegseth down but maybe coming back, the Kash Patel drama waiting the wings — the most important figures in this administration’s orbit have not changed since Election Day: Besides the president himself, the future of Trumpism is still most likely to be shaped and stamped by two men, JD Vance and Elon Musk.Not just because of their talent and achievements, and not just because Vance is the political heir apparent and Musk would be one of the world’s most influential men even if he didn’t have the ear of the president-elect. It’s also because they represent, more clearly than any other appointee, two potent visions for a 21st century right, and their interaction is likely to shape conservatism for the next four years and beyond.Musk is the dynamist, the believer in growth and innovation and exploration as the lodestars of American civilization. His dynamism was not always especially ideological: The Tesla and SpaceX mogul was once a Barack Obama Democrat, happy to support an active and sometimes spendthrift government so long as it spent freely on his projects. But as Musk has moved right, he has adopted a more libertarian pose, insisting on the profound wastefulness of government spending and the tyranny of the administrative state.Vance meanwhile is the populist, committed to protect and uplift those parts of America neglected or left behind in an age of globalization. Along with his support for the Trumpian causes of tariffs and immigration restriction, this worldview has made him more sympathetic than the average Republican senator to certain forms of government investment — from longstanding programs like Social Security to new ideas about industrial policy and family policy.Despite this contrast, the Musk and Vance worldviews overlap in important ways. Musk has moved in a populist direction on immigration, while Vance has been a venture capitalist and clearly has a strong sympathy for parts of the dynamist worldview, especially its critique of the regulatory state. Both men share a farsighted interest in the collapsing birthrate, a heretofore-fringe issue that’s likely to dominate the later parts of the 21st century. And there is modest-but-real convergence between the Muskian “tech” worldview and Vance’s more “neo-trad” style of religious conservatism, based on not just a shared antipathy toward wokeness but also similar views about the intelligibility of the cosmos and the providential place of humankind in history.So you can imagine a scenario, in Trump’s second term and beyond, where these convergences yield a dynamist-populist fusionism — a conservatism that manages to simultaneously aim for the stars and uplift and protect the working class, in which economic growth and technological progress help renew the heartland (as Musk’s own companies have brought jobs and optimism to South Texas) while also preserving our creaking social compact.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Musk, Trump, A.I. and Other DealBook Summit Highlights

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      The economy, inflation, tariffs, the future of media, pardon politics and other big topics that made headlines this year.Jeff Bezos was cautiously optimistic that President-elect Donald Trump would be more measured in his second term.Michael M. Santiago/Getty ImagesFour takeaways from the DealBook Summit The U.S. election dominated the news agenda this year, and the two people at the center of Donald Trump’s win came up in nearly every conversation yesterday at the DealBook Summit. The president-elect and Elon Musk may not have been in the room, but questions about how they will shape business and politics were front and center.The general view of the day was cautious optimism, even among those who had publicly criticized Trump and Musk — or been targeted by them.But many questions remain. What will Trump and Musk mean for government, business and the economy? Will they succeed in cutting regulation and government spending? And will they go after their perceived enemies and rivals?Here are four big themes from this year’s event.What will happen with the economy?Most of the speakers were willing to give Trump the benefit of the doubt, or at least played down worries about his most disruptive policy ideas.Jay Powell, the Fed chair, addressed one of the biggest questions hanging over the next administration: Will the president-elect go after the central bank’s independence? No, Powell said emphatically. The Fed, he said, was created by Congress and its autonomy is “the law of the land.”“There is very, very broad support for that set of ideas in Congress in both political parties, on both sides of the Hill, and that’s what really matters,” he said.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Trudeau Goes to Mar-a-Lago to See Trump Amid Tariff Concerns

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      Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada is the first G7 leader to visit President-elect Donald J. Trump in Florida since the election. He is under pressure to persuade Mr. Trump to back down from his tariff threat.Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada on Friday night landed in Florida to see President-elect Donald J. Trump at Mar-a-Lago, two officials with direct knowledge of the visit said, after a threat by Mr. Trump to impose across-the-board tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico on Day 1.The visit makes Mr. Trudeau the first head of government from the Group of 7, a key forum of global coordination consisting of the world’s wealthiest democracies, to visit the president-elect.Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Trump were to dine together on Friday evening, one official said, along with a delegation of senior Trump allies poised for top trade and security positions in his new administration.Mr. Trudeau was accompanied on his visit by Dominic LeBlanc, Canada’s minister of public safety. The Canadian prime minister was expected to stay in the area overnight, but not at Mar-a-Lago, Mr. Trump’s private club and home in Palm Beach, Fla.The Trump transition team did not respond to requests for comment, and there was no information released about Mr. Trump’s schedule on Friday.Mr. Trudeau has been scrambling to formulate a plan to respond to the threat made this week by Mr. Trump to impose a 25 percent tariff unless Mexico and Canada take action to curb the arrival of undocumented migrants and drugs across their borders into the United States.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      PCE, a Key Inflation Measure, Sped Up in October

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      Inflation has been stubborn in recent months. Now, President-elect Donald J. Trump’s tariffs loom as a potential risk.The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure sped up in October, a development that is likely to keep central bankers wary as they contemplate the path ahead for interest rates.The Personal Consumption Expenditures index climbed 2.3 percent from a year earlier, quicker than 2.1 percent in September.After stripping out volatile food and fuel costs to get a better sense of the underlying trend in prices, a “core” index climbed 2.8 percent from a year earlier. That was up from 2.7 percent previously.Looking at how much prices climbed over just the past month, the overall index rose 0.2 percent from September, and the core index increased 0.3 percent. Both changes were in line with their previous readings and with economist expectations. Policymakers sometimes look at monthly price changes to get an up-to-date sense of how inflation is evolving.The upshot from the report is that inflation is proving sticky after months of steady progress. Price increases remain much cooler than they were at their peak in 2022, which topped out at about 7 percent for the overall index. But they remain slightly faster than the 2 percent pace that the Fed targets.That is preventing officials from declaring victory over inflation, although policymakers still expect price increases to continue to cool toward their goal.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More