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      Chris Christie Meets With Zelensky in Surprise Trip to Ukraine

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      Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who is running for the Republican presidential nomination, made an unannounced visit to Ukraine on Friday to meet with President Volodymyr Zelensky, whom he praised for demonstrating “the resolve it takes to survive a war and ultimately win it.”Mr. Christie is the second 2024 G.O.P. hopeful to visit Mr. Zelensky in Kyiv, signaling his support for Ukraine in a war that has divided the Republican candidates and Republican voters. Former Vice President Mike Pence traveled to Ukraine in June.Escorted by a Ukrainian security detail, Mr. Christie visited sites near Kyiv that were devastated during Russia’s drive toward the Ukrainian capital in the first months of the invasion, including Bucha, a Kyiv suburb where Russian soldiers massacred more than 400 people last April.“There are hundreds of millions of people in our country who support you,” Mr. Christie told local officials in Moshchun, a village northwest of Kyiv, during a visit to a memorial overlooking a trench used by Ukrainian soldiers during a battle in March of last year.The United States has provided Ukraine with billions of dollars in military and security assistance since Russia’s invasion more than a year ago, with President Biden often framing the extraordinary level of support as part of an existential fight for democracy against authoritarian aggression as well as being vital to national security interests.A majority of Americans continue to approve of U.S. aid to Ukraine in the conflict, but that support has softened over time, owing mostly to increasing Republican opposition. The percentage of Republicans saying the United States is providing “too much” support to Ukraine has grown to 44 percent from 9 percent since the Russian invasion in February 2022, according to polling by the Pew Research Center.That shift has been led by former President Donald Trump, whose first impeachment resulted from his 2019 phone call to Mr. Zelensky pressuring him to investigate Mr. Trump’s political rivals after freezing hundreds of millions of dollars in aid to Ukraine. Mr. Trump, who maintained that he did not pressure Mr. Zelensky, has said defending Ukraine is not a vital national interest for the United States.In a CNN town hall in May, he refused to say whether he would continue President Biden’s policy of supplying weapons and ammunition to Ukraine if he returned to the White House, or whether he supported Mr. Zelensky or Russian President Vladimir Putin in the conflict.“I want everybody to stop dying,” Mr. Trump said.Mr. Christie said that in his meeting with Mr. Zelensky, which was closed to reporters, the Ukrainian president “spoke about his desire for there to be bipartisan support for Ukraine.” He said the subject of Mr. Trump did not come up. “There was no conversation from him about the race that I’m in,” Mr. Christie said. He said Mr. Zelensky told him, “Whoever the next president is, I need to have that person feel a partnership with Ukraine.”Ukraine policy is an area in which Mr. Christie, a 2016 Trump rival-turned Trump adviser-turned Trump critic, has sought to draw a sharp contrast between himself and the former president, calling Mr. Trump a “puppet of Putin” and mocking his recent claim that he could negotiate “in one day” a truce between Mr. Zelensky and the Russian leader.“Move over Churchill, Trump is here to save the day,” Mr. Christie tweeted last month.“I think he really likes strongmen,” Mr. Christie said late Thursday of Mr. Trump in an interview aboard a train to Kyiv. “I think those are his role models in terms of the way he would like to control power if left to his own devices.”Mr. Christie also criticized the Biden administration for not doing more to support the Ukrainian war effort, in particular its delays in supplying Mr. Zelensky’s government with F-16 fighter jets, which Mr. Biden had resisted doing for a year before approving the move in May. “I would have been sending them months ago,” Mr. Christie said. He also favors NATO membership for Ukraine.A New York Times/Siena poll this week showed Mr. Christie trailing far behind Mr. Trump, who remains the overwhelming favorite in the race, with the support of 54 percent of likely Republican primary voters.“I wish you political luck,” Anatolii Fedoruk, the mayor of Bucha, told Mr. Christie during his visit to the city.“We all hope for that, right?” Mr. Christie replied, clapping him on the back. More

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      Your Tuesday Briefing: Putin Addresses Russia

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      Also, Pakistan’s military fired three top commanders.President Vladimir Putin during a televised speech yesterday. Sergei Ilnitsky/EPA, via ShutterstockPutin addressed the revoltPresident Vladimir Putin addressed the rebellion over the weekend by the Wagner mercenary group, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, in a short televised speech yesterday. In his first public comments since Saturday, Putin tried to project unity and stability as questions swirled about the strength of his grip on power.Putin appeared visibly angry as he denounced the rebellion as “blackmail” and claimed that “the entire Russian society united and rallied everyone.” He did not mention Prigozhin by name.“They wanted Russians to fight each other,” he said. “They rubbed their hands, dreaming of taking revenge for their failures at the front and during the so-called counteroffensive.”Earlier in the day, Prigozhin also spoke publicly for the first time since Saturday. He said that he wasn’t seeking to oust Putin and denied that he had any intention of seizing power. He said that he was only protesting the new law that he said would have effectively halted Wagner’s operations in Ukraine.“We went to demonstrate our protest, and not to overthrow the government in the country,” Prigozhin said. Now, the future of the Wagner group remains unclear and Prigozhin could still face charges.Analysis: The short-lived rebellion — the most dramatic challenge to Putin’s authority in his 23-year reign — could undermine his power in the long-term.The war: Ukraine’s leaders are hoping to capitalize on the chaos in Russia to make gains on the front lines. The counteroffensive is off to a halting start, but leaders are urging patience and say the main push is yet to come.Imran Khan has accused the military of orchestrating his removal, an allegation that officials deny.K.M. Chaudary/Associated PressA crackdown in Pakistan’s militaryPakistan’s military fired three senior army commanders and disciplined 15 top officers over their conduct during recent protests that supported Imran Khan, the former prime minister. Analysts said it was the strongest action the military has taken against its own in decades.The crackdown sent a message that support for Khan would not be tolerated in the ranks. The punishments also underscored that the military would use an increasingly strong hand to quash support for Khan, who was ousted from power last year but has made a comeback in the months since.Details: Violent demonstrations erupted last month after Khan was briefly arrested on corruption charges, accusations that he denied. A military spokesman said that the members of the military who had been disciplined had failed to secure military installations against attacks by protesters.Arrests: Since the protests, at least 5,000 of Khan’s supporters have been arrested. A military spokesman said at least 102 will be tried in military courts, which has drawn widespread criticism from human rights groups.Inflation in Suriname is near 60 percent, and people are protesting.Adriana Loureiro Fernandez for The New York TimesU.S.-China relations complicate lendingMiddle- and lower-income countries are grappling with untenable debts after years of low interest rates encouraged borrowing. The rivalry between China and the U.S. is now complicating their ability to get relief on time.For decades, the I.M.F. has regularly prescribed austerity as a condition for financial aid. But in recent years, China has emerged as a major lender for developing countries across the world, and its loans are accompanied by fewer demands.Now, the I.M.F. and the U.S., its most influential participant, have balked at providing some relief to debt-stressed countries until Chinese financial institutions participate. Otherwise, they say, Chinese lenders are free-riding on debt forgiveness extended by others. But as Beijing grows increasingly assertive, it has refused to bow to the West.As a result, countries such as Ghana, Ethiopia and Pakistan — each facing escalating debts, much of it to state-owned Chinese lenders — are caught in the crossfire.Case in point: Suriname was offered low-interest loans from the I.M.F., but the agency was adamant that Chinese creditors restructure $545 million in debt — loans Suriname had used to build roads and housing. The impasse delayed relief as inflation soared and children went hungry.THE LATEST NEWSAround the WorldKyriakos Mitsotakis has pledged to keep the country on the road of economic and political stability.Louisa Gouliamaki/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesKyriakos Mitsotakis, the leader of a conservative Greek party, was sworn in for a second term after a landslide victory. It’s another win for the right in Europe.An anticorruption candidate stunned Guatemala’s establishment by advancing to a runoff in the presidential race against a former first lady.Sierra Leone’s main opposition party accused the military of attacking their headquarters after weekend elections.A study found that loan officers in Uganda were more likely to offer credit to heavier-looking people. In a place where food can be scarce, obesity can signal financial security.U.S. NewsClimate change is intensifying flood risks in some of the country’s most populous areas.A shortage of cancer drugs is forcing doctors to give priority to patients who have the best chance of survival.Yasufumi Nakamori, a senior curator at the Tate Modern in London, will become director of the Asia Society in New York.A Morning ReadJes Aznar for The New York TimesIn the Philippines, an annual rodeo on the island province of Masbate is both a competition and a celebration of the country’s unique cowboy culture, with roots in the Spanish and American colonial eras.“Where there’s cattle, there’s rodeo,” said a livestock farmer who directs the festival’s rodeo events. “It is not necessarily American.”ARTS AND IDEASTony Cenicola/The New York TimesInside Barbie’s dream houseIn 1962, American women were denied mortgage applications because of their sex or marital status. But that year, Barbie bought her first home. It had a record player and a television set, but no kitchen. She was there to have fun, not to be a housewife.In the years since, Barbie’s Dreamhouse has been a mirror for social, political and economic changes across the U.S. It responded to the sexual revolution, to the environmental movement and even to pandemic remote work.Throughout that time, Barbie’s house has given little girls a subliminal, maybe even subversive, blueprint for economic liberation. Notably, the Dreamhouse was all her own — Ken wasn’t on the deed.Barbiecore: Hot pink and magenta are surging in popularity in home décor. The forthcoming “Barbie” movie is serving as a catalyst.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookDavid Malosh for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews.This shish kebab is marinated in spiced yogurt.What to ReadThe novel “Banyan Moon” traces a family from 1960s Vietnam to present-day Florida.What to Listen toHere are nine new songs from our playlist.Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: Bit of fire (five letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee. You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you tomorrow. — AmeliaP.S. Take our photo-based geography quiz.“The Daily” is about the rebellion in Russia.You can reach us at briefing@nytimes.com. More

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      Worrying About the Judge and the Jury for Trump’s Trial

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      More from our inbox:The Revolt in RussiaMigrants and New York’s SuburbsClimate Education: New Jersey’s ExampleThe special counsel, Jack Smith, released an indictment of former President Donald J. Trump this month.Kenny Holston/The New York TimesTo the Editor:Don’t do it, liberal America! Don’t get caught up in the melodrama of the Florida trial! The former president craves attention. The news media collude by granting him free publicity. Why give this despicable man what he wants?And the trial outcome? Yes, it seems that Jack Smith has an open-and-shut case. Yet there is a reasonable likelihood that we have a shut-and-shut-down judge. This is the bad luck of the draw.Judge Aileen M. Cannon has myriad tactics at her disposal to delay, disrupt and derail the proceedings. She can influence jury selection, undercutting chances of a unanimous guilty verdict. Even if the jury reaches that conclusion, it is the judge who sets the sentence. This could be a slap on the wrist.Why not assume that the chances of conviction and a serious sentence are small and turn your attention to other matters of national significance?If you must follow the legal adventures of the former president, it’s better to focus on the likely trial in Georgia and Mr. Smith’s Jan. 6 investigation.David B. AbernethyPortola Valley, Calif.The writer is professor emeritus of political science at Stanford University.To the Editor:Re “Trial Judge Puts Documents Case on Speedy Path” (front page, June 21):So Judge Aileen M. Cannon has set a trial date for August. I’m suspicious. She will have total power over the sentence as well as the ability to dismiss the case. Is she helping Donald Trump by getting the whole matter resolved quickly in order for it to be done before the election?How dare she ignore calls to recuse herself, given her record? She must be removed.Sandy MileySherrill, N.Y.To the Editor:Re “Leaving Trump’s Fate to 12 Ordinary Citizens Is Genius,” by Deborah Pearlstein (Opinion guest essay, June 16):In ordinary times Professor Pearlstein’s belief in the wisdom of the jury system in trying Donald Trump would be warranted, but these are not ordinary times. Mr. Trump has primed his followers to threaten and intimidate anyone who might oppose him.No matter the strength of the case, I believe that at least some jurors will vote to acquit because they justifiably fear for their safety.David LigareCarmel Valley, Calif.To the Editor:Central to the case against Donald Trump are the details about the highly classified documents he took. And the key problem is that the defense’s right to see the government’s evidence conflicts with the absolute need to keep that material secret.There is then the possibility that the judge might agree to suppress such crucial evidence. Could people with the highest security clearance review the documents and present affidavits and witnesses in court supporting the government’s assertions?This might provide a litmus test for the integrity of the judicial process.Arnold MitchellScarsdale, N.Y.To the Editor:Re “Judge’s Record in Trump Case Raises Concern” (front page, June 15):While I understand that any judge presiding over an unprecedented and historic case like this will receive scrutiny, I am appalled at how easily a Latina woman is denigrated for her inexperience and for bristling when she is questioned.Such descriptions hold no weight for this 49-year-old working mother and small-business owner. I’ve heard it all before ad nauseam.Speaking as a liberal, I hope that Judge Aileen M. Cannon proves all of her naysayers wrong and goes down in history as an amazing jurist.Would a male judge have had the same questions raised about him at the same stage of his career? I highly doubt it. So much of this article reads like water cooler talk about the new female boss.Shantha Krishnamurthy SmithSan Jose, Calif.To the Editor:It was not the Watergate break-in that brought Richard Nixon down; it was the cover-up and obstruction of justice. Similarly, it was not the taking or storage of classified documents that resulted in Donald Trump’s indictment; it was the lying to the F.B.I. and D.O.J. and obstruction of justice.Mike Pence and Joe Biden stored government documents, but promptly cooperated with the government and returned the documents. It’s not complicated.Alan M. GoldbergBrooklynTo the Editor:I already know how I would vote if I were on the jury of the Trump trial.Good luck finding 12 Americans who don’t.Eliot RiskinRiverside, Conn.The Revolt in Russia Dmitri Lovetsky/Associated PressTo the Editor:Re “How Revolt Undermines Putin’s Grip” (news analysis, front page, June 26):An autocrat must always appear strong. An act of treason and rebellion was committed against Russia, and Vladimir Putin blinked. His mentor Stalin is turning over in his grave.A severe crack has now developed in Mr. Putin’s power structure that he may not have enough cement to repair.Ed HoulihanRidgewood, N.J.To the Editor:What kind of world have we come to when we’re rooting for the mercenaries?Elliot ShoenmanLos AngelesMigrants and New York’s SuburbsEd Day, the Rockland County executive, is one of many county leaders who have taken legal steps to try to stop New York City from sending migrants their way.Gregg Vigliotti for The New York TimesTo the Editor:“New York City and Suburbs: A Rift Widens” (front page, June 18) highlighted the opposition of Ed Day, the Rockland County executive, to migrants being housed in hotels in the suburbs.Although some suburban residents oppose migrants coming to our communities, there are others who want to give migrants a chance to have a better life. I have met many Westchester residents who want to donate food and clothing to migrants.And — if the federal government would make it easier for the migrants to work legally — we could try matching employers who can’t find employees to work in their industry with migrants who would like to work legally in the suburbs.Churches and synagogues in the suburbs would welcome the opportunity to have congregants “adopt” individual migrants and to provide them with personal attention and help so they could live a better life.Ed Day does not speak for the suburbs.Paul FeinerGreenburgh, N.Y.The writer is the Greenburgh town supervisor.Climate Education: New Jersey’s Example Desiree Rios for The New York TimesTo the Editor:Re “Schools Encourage 7-Year-Olds to Fix Climate Change, Not Fear It” (front page, June 17):Three cheers to my former home state, New Jersey, for having the guts and the smarts to take on climate change in its education system. The effects of our climate’s unsettling behavior will continue to be felt by all, whether you agree that it’s happening or deny it.The youngest of us will experience its effects longer than my generation of grandparents, so of course it is totally logical to begin with them in their early education years.The great purpose of education is to prepare all ages to live meaningfully in the world as it is and as it changes. Surely, teaching the young how to bend with the arc of change and sway with its seasons could not be more relevant today.I wish New Jerseyans well with this, but even more I wish them insight into what they are doing so they can become ambassadors to the other states and, yes, the federal Department of Education as well.Well done, New Jersey!Bill HoadleySanta Fe, N.M. More

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      In Russian Schools, It’s Recite Your ABC’s and ‘Love Your Army’

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      The curriculum for young Russians is increasingly emphasizing patriotism and the heroism of Moscow’s army, while demonizing the West as “gangsters.” One school features a “sniper”-themed math class.A new version of the ABC’s in Russia’s Far East starts with “A is for Army, B is for Brotherhood” — and injects a snappy phrase with every letter, like, “Love your Army.”A swim meet in the southern city of Magnitogorsk featured adolescents diving into the pool wearing camouflage uniforms, while other competitors slung model Kalashnikov rifles across their backs.“Snipers” was the theme adopted for math classes at an elementary school in central Russia, with paper stars enumerating would-be bullet holes on a target drawn on the chalkboard.As the war in Ukraine rolls into its 16th month, educational programs across Russia are awash in lessons and extracurricular activities built around military themes and patriotism.These efforts are part of an expansive Kremlin campaign to militarize Russian society, to train future generations to revere the army and to further entrench President Vladimir V. Putin’s narrative that “a real war has once again been unleashed on our motherland,” as he declared in a sober address at a ceremony last month.The drumbeat of indoctrination essentially started with Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, but the full-scale invasion of Ukraine has accelerated it. The Ministry of Education and Science releases a constant stream of material, including step-by-step lesson plans and real-life examples — like a video of a student concert that used poetry, dance and theater to explain the history of Russian foreign intelligence.“It includes all levels, from kindergarten to university,” said Daniil Ken, the head of the Alliance of Teachers, an independent Russian union, who works from voluntary exile. “They are trying to involve all these children, all students, directly in supporting the war.”Members of the Russian Young Pioneers attending an induction ceremony, organized by the Russian Communist Party, at Red Square in Moscow in May.Maxim Shipenkov/EPA, via ShutterstockFor years, Russia’s leaders sought to condition its citizens to accept Moscow’s leadership, partly by barring politics from schools. Now the Kremlin hopes to persuade the public to actively back the war effort, and when it comes to younger males, to fight.Yet it also wants to avoid fanning too high a patriotic flame, lest it push Russians to start questioning the purpose of the war. Much the way Mr. Putin has refrained from enacting multiple conscriptions of soldiers to avert prompting antiwar sentiment, the Kremlin has left parents some leeway to avoid propaganda lessons. In that, they may be hoping to avoid the disconnect that emerged in the Soviet era, when the education system portrayed the country as the land of Communist plenty, even as ordinary Russians could see that the shelves were bare.“They want enthusiasm, but they realize if they push too hard it could galvanize an organized opposition,” said Alexandra Arkhipova, a social anthropologist who studies public reactions to the war. “They do not want people to protest.”Interviews over the past month with sociologists, educators, parents and students, and a review of extensive material online posted by the schools themselves and by local news outlets, show a comprehensive government effort to bolster military-patriotic content through all 40,000 public schools in Russia.The cornerstone of the initiative is a program called “Important Conversations,” started last September. Every Monday at 8 a.m., schools are supposed to hold an assembly to raise the Russian flag while the national anthem is played, and then convene an hourlong classroom session on topics like important milestones in Russian history.The minister of education, Sergei Kravtsov, did not respond to written questions. When the program was introduced last fall, he told the official Tass news outlet, “We want the current generation of schoolchildren to grow up in completely different traditions, proud of their homeland.” Both an official Telegram channel and a website disseminate materials for the classroom.“Important Conversations” has been supplemented by programs with names like “Lessons in Courage” or “Heroes Among Us.” Students have been encouraged to write poetry extolling the Motherland and the feats of Russian soldiers. Myriad videos show elementary school children reciting lines like, “All the crooks are fleeing Russia; they have a place to live in the West; gangsters, sodomites.”In this photograph provided by state media, Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, is shown meeting with the country’s education minister, Sergei Kravtsov, in Moscow, in 2021.Sputnik/via ReutersLessons draw heavily on earlier conflicts, particularly the Soviet Union’s success defeating Nazi Germany. Suggestions based on that earlier time sometimes seem antiquated, like encouraging students to knit socks for the troops.“It is very theatrical,” said Ms. Arkhipova, the social anthropologist. “It serves as a kind of proof that the entire war is the right thing to do because it mirrors World War II.”Countless schools have been renamed to honor dead soldiers, and memorials are rife. They include a “Hero’s Desk” in classrooms that often displays the picture of an alumnus who is supposed to be honored.Veterans are trotted into classrooms frequently to detail their experiences. In late April in Dmitrov, a small city near Moscow, three soldiers addressed a roomful of students aged 10 to 15, some waving small Russian flags. A video of the session shows one fighter talking about wanting to protect his homeland against “fascist filth.”Overall, however, there is no monolithic propaganda machine because the decision on how to implement “Important Conversations” has largely been left to local school administrators.Some teachers take a hard ideological approach. A video posted by the Doxa news outlet showed a teacher demanding that students pump their fists in the air while singing a popular song called, “I Am Russian.” The teacher barks: “The thrust should be to the sky, to NATO.”Other teachers do not even mention the war, particularly in places like Moscow, where many parents disapprove of attempts to indoctrinate their children.Yuri Lapshin, formerly the student psychologist at an elite Moscow high school, said in an interview that while researching a paper, he found examples of unique interpretations of the program. One math teacher, for example, told students that the most important conversation in the world was about algebra, so he dedicated the class to that. On a day supposedly focused on the concept of “fatherland,” a biology teacher lectured about salmon spawning in the rivers where they hatched.Even when the war lessons occur, they sometimes fall flat. At an assembly with two fighters, students from a St. Petersburg technical college basically mocked them. They questioned why fighting in another country meant they were defending Russia, and how God might view murdering others, according to a recording of the assembly. Administrators rebuked at least five students for their questions, local reports said.Children holding portraits of Russian soldiers who were killed in the war in Ukraine as they take part in the opening ceremony of a memorial in their honor in Crimea in May.Alexey Pavlishak/ReutersSasha Boychenko, 17, a high school senior, attended four “Important Conversations” sessions in Vladivostok last fall before her family left Russia. Bored students laughed at the historic displays, she recalled. “After the class, we wondered why we had come,” she said in an interview.Alexander Kondrashev, a history teacher in Russia for 10 years, said he was awaiting a revised version of the textbooks this fall. An early copy obtained by the Mediazona news organization found one fundamental change; all references to Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, as the springboard for Russia as a Christian nation have been expunged.“Nobody perceives ‘Important Conversations’ as learning something that will come in handy in life, like physics, math, geography or the knowledge from history lessons,” Mr. Kondrashev said in an interview.Noncompliance takes various forms. The Alliance of Teachers advised parents that they can formally opt out of the classes, while some have their children show up late or call in sick on Mondays. Defiance makes certain parents nervous, experts said, especially given about a dozen cases where school officials reported on unenthusiastic parents or students.A woman named Zarema, 47, said she worried about her three sons in school in Dagestan. While she sends her youngest son, a sixth grader, to the “Important Conversations” class, she told him never to engage politically. “We are all scared of everything here now,” she said, asking that her full name not be used while criticizing the war.Russia has largely presented the war as an economic opportunity in poorer areas, while being far less aggressive in major cities.Cadet students in February at the Victory Museum, which is dedicated to Russia’s World War II victory over Nazi Germany.Nanna Heitmann for The New York Times“They are trying to target the people who have fewer resources,” Greg Yudin, a Russian sociologist doing research at Princeton University, said in an interview “They give you an option that promises money, status, benefits and in addition to that you will be a hero.” Even if they persuade only 20 percent of the youth to join the army, that is still a lot of brigades, he noted.Toward that end, the Ministries of Education and Defense have announced that military training will be mandatory next year for 10th-grade students. Girls will learn battlefield first aid, while the boys will be instructed in drill formation and handling a Kalashnikov, among other skills.At universities, the curriculum in the fall will include a mandatory course called “The Fundamentals of Russian Statehood.”The course is still in development, Mr. Yudin noted, but he said that what details have emerged tended to echo Mr. Putin’s worldview of Russian exceptionalism and the idea that the battle waged against Western dominance for the past 1,000 years would continue for another 1,000.“The single best possible way for them to get this society mobilized is to brainwash the young,” Mr. Yudin said. More

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      An Erdogan Loss in Turkey Would Stir Relief in the West and Anxiety in Moscow

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      European leaders would be delighted to have “an easier Turkey,” while Russia could lose an important economic and diplomatic partnership should the Turkish leader lose power in Sunday’s elections.Sunday’s presidential election in Turkey is being watched carefully in Western capitals, NATO headquarters and the Kremlin, with Turkey’s longtime mediating role in the complex and often vexing relations between the parties riding on the outcome.With President Recep Tayyip Erdogan slightly trailing his challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, in recent polls, the prospect that the Turkish leader could lose the election is concentrating diplomatic minds.Officially, people on the Western side won’t talk about their preferences, to avoid being accused of interfering in Turkey’s domestic politics. But it is an open secret that European leaders, not to speak of the Biden administration, would be delighted if Mr. Erdogan were to lose.As Carl Bildt, the former Swedish prime minister, said on Friday, “We all want an easier Turkey,” a strategically important member of NATO that has, under Mr. Erdogan, become an increasingly troublesome partner for the European Union, which has largely abandoned the idea of Turkish membership.Russia, too, has much riding on the election’s outcome. Under Mr. Erdogan, Turkey has become Russia’s indispensable trading partner and at times a diplomatic intermediary, a relationship that has assumed an even greater importance for the Kremlin since the invasion of Ukraine.Throughout his 20 years in power, Mr. Erdogan has pursued a nonaligned foreign policy that has frequently frustrated his putative Western allies and provided a welcome diplomatic opening for Moscow — perhaps never more so than after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.Mr. Erdogan with then-Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. in 2016. It is an open secret that European leaders and the Biden administration would be delighted if the Turkish leader were to lose Sunday’s election.Kayhan Ozer/Turkish Presidential Press ServiceBy refusing to enforce Western sanctions on Moscow, Mr. Erdogan has helped undermine efforts to isolate the Kremlin and starve it of funds to underwrite the war. At the same time, the stumbling Turkish economy has feasted recently on heavily discounted Russian oil, helping Mr. Erdogan in his quest for a third, five-year term. Mr. Erdogan has further irritated his allies by blocking Sweden’s bid for membership in NATO, insisting that Stockholm first turn over scores of Kurdish refugees in the country, especially from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which both Ankara and Washington consider a terrorist organization.More broadly, for the European Union and Washington there is the strong feeling that Turkey under Mr. Erdogan has moved farther away from European values and norms like the rule of law and freedom of the press.Kaja Kallas, Estonia’s prime minister, said in an interview that NATO and the European Union viewed the election differently. It is a defense alliance, she said, and “Turkey is one of the allies that has great military capacities” to help NATO in a key part of the world. “So I don’t think anything changes in terms of NATO in this regard whoever wins the elections.”For NATO, of course, the hope is that a change of leadership in Turkey will end the standoff over approval of Sweden’s membership in the military alliance, ideally before a summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, in July.In Washington, Mr. Erdogan’s drift toward authoritarianism, his ties to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and his disputes with NATO have exasperated officials — and even led some members of Congress to suggest that Turkey should be banished from the NATO alliance.While the United States, the European Union and, to a lesser extent, NATO stand to gain from an opposition victory, Mr. Putin almost certainly will be seen as the loser if Mr. Erdogan is ousted.Not only has Mr. Erdogan refused to join Western sanctions against Russia and provided a market for its oil and gas, Turkey has also become a source for Moscow of much-needed imports and a crucial link to the global economy amid tightening Western sanctions. The Kremlin also sees in Mr. Erdogan’s often confrontational nationalist rhetoric the potential to disrupt the NATO alliance.For its part, Turkey has benefited not only from cheap Russian energy, but also from Russian investment and revenues from Russian tourism, which have risen since the start of the war. Russia is building Turkey’s first nuclear power plant and, since war began, has announced plans to make the country a hub for its natural gas trade.A campaign poster for Mr. Erdogan in Kayseri, Turkey.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesThe two long-serving leaders also share an authoritarian streak and confrontational rhetoric toward the West, emphasizing historical grievances against other world powers. Mr. Erdogan’s relationship with Mr. Putin has allowed him to play the role of statesman as a mediator for Moscow’s war on Ukraine, most recently by brokering a deal to allow the export of Ukrainian grain.But Mr. Putin and Mr. Erdogan’s partnership has always been based on mutual self-interest rather than ideological affinity, and the two countries compete for influence in the Caucasus and Middle East. Most notably, the two leaders back different factions in the armed conflicts in Syria and Libya. Relations grew tense after Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet in 2015.Mr. Erdogan has stopped short of offering Mr. Putin direct support in the war in Ukraine, and his government has angered Moscow by allowing the sale of Turkish armed drones to Kyiv.In another worrying sign for the Kremlin, Mr. Kilicdaroglu, the opposition leader, accused Russia this past week of interfering in the country’s election by spreading “conspiracies, deep fakes and tapes that were exposed in this country yesterday.”That was a reference to an alleged sex tape that surfaced on Thursday, prompting a minor presidential candidate to leave the race.“Get your hands off the Turkish state,” he wrote in Turkish and Russian, though adding: “We are still in favor of cooperation and friendship.”Mr. Kilicdaroglu has promised to maintain economic ties to Russia if he wins the presidency, but it remains unclear whether he would maintain Mr. Erdogan’s delicate balancing act in Ukraine.As an indication of the sensitivity of the situation, when the United States ambassador to Turkey, Jeff Flake, met with Mr. Kilicdaroglu last month, he drew Mr. Erdogan’s ire. Saying that he would no longer meet with Mr. Flake, the Turkish president added, “We need to teach the United States a lesson in this election,” Turkish news media outlets reported.Europe’s leaders, while silently rooting for an Erdogan defeat, are growing concerned about the potential for post-election turmoil, especially if Mr. Erdogan loses narrowly or the election goes to a second-round runoff in two weeks.“It is a watershed election,” Mr. Bildt said. “But democracy is at stake. And my second concern is that we get a result” that means a division of powers — a powerful presidency under Mr. Erdogan and a Turkish Parliament controlled by an unstable opposition coalition.“The risk of constitutional stalemate is quite high,” Mr. Bildt said.Michael Crowley contributed reporting from Washington. More

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      Ron DeSantis Calls Putin a ‘War Criminal,’ Clarifying Earlier Comment on Ukraine

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      The Florida governor and presumed G.O.P. presidential candidate previously described the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a “territorial dispute” and did not mention the Russian president.Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida this week clarified his description of the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a “territorial dispute” and said that Vladimir V. Putin, the Russian president, was a “war criminal” who should be “held accountable.”Mr. DeSantis, a Republican who is expected to announce a presidential campaign in the coming months, made his latest comments in an interview with the British broadcaster Piers Morgan, who shared them with The New York Post and Fox News, both owned by Rupert Murdoch.Last week, Mr. DeSantis made one of the most significant statements of the 2024 presidential campaign to date, to the influential Fox News host Tucker Carlson, who has criticized the Biden administration’s approach to Ukraine. “While the U.S. has many vital national interests,” Mr. DeSantis said in his statement, “becoming further entangled in a territorial dispute between Ukraine and Russia is not one of them.”Mr. DeSantis did not mention Mr. Putin then and criticized President Biden’s policy as a “blank check” to Ukraine with no clear objectives, one that distracts from U.S. problems.The line about a “territorial dispute” was heavily criticized by foreign policy hawks, as well as Republicans in Congress and, privately, some Republican donors. It also put Mr. DeSantis’s views more in line with those of former President Donald J. Trump.But Mr. DeSantis used an apparently lengthy interview with Mr. Morgan early this week to clarify his statement to Mr. Carlson.“I think he is a war criminal,” Mr. DeSantis said of Mr. Putin, for whom the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant related to war crimes. “I don’t know about that route,” he said of the arrest warrant, “but I do think that he should be held accountable.”To Mr. Morgan, Mr. DeSantis insisted that his comment about a “territorial dispute” had been “mischaracterized,” but he acknowledged he could have been clearer.“Obviously, Russia invaded” in 2022, Mr. DeSantis said. “That was wrong. They invaded Crimea and took that in 2014 — that was wrong.”The change appeared not to have been lost on Mr. Carlson. Just hours after Mr. DeSantis’s new comments about Mr. Putin were made public, Mr. Carlson attacked what he said were people who give in to the news media, asserting that they are forced “to repeat whatever childish slogan they’ve come up with this week.” In a mocking voice, he said, “Vladimir Putin is a war criminal.”While he was a congressman from Florida, Mr. DeSantis faulted President Obama’s administration for not doing more, as Russia annexed Crimea.“What I’m referring to is where the fighting is going on now, which is that eastern border region, Donbas, and then Crimea,” Mr. DeSantis said. He added, “There’s a lot of ethnic Russians there. So, that’s some difficult fighting, and that’s what I was referring to, and so it wasn’t that I thought Russia had a right to that, and so if I should have made that more clear, I could have done it.”But he added, “I think the larger point is, OK, Russia is not showing the ability to take over Ukraine, to topple the government or certainly to threaten NATO. That’s a good thing. I just don’t think that’s a sufficient interest for us to escalate more involvement. I would not want to see American troops involved there. But the idea that I think somehow Russia was justified” in invading is “nonsense.”He added that he did not believe that the conflict would end with “Putin being victorious. I do not think the Ukrainian government is going to be toppled by him, and I think that’s a good thing.”Mr. DeSantis’s stance on Russia has been of significant interest to Republicans looking for an alternative to Mr. Trump. A large swath of Republican voters have come to say that the U.S. is providing too much support for Ukraine.The governor has a record as a congressman that has left different people believing he shares their foreign policy views, even when those people are on opposite ends of the spectrum.But his comments to Mr. Carlson were roundly condemned by a number of Republican senators, former Representative Liz Cheney of Wyoming and prospective 2024 rivals like Chris Christie, the former governor of New Jersey. And the lack of initial criticism of Mr. Putin was noted, particularly as Mr. DeSantis, in his initial statement to Mr. Carlson, derided the notion of regime change in Russia. More

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      Your Tuesday Briefing: Xi Meets Putin in Moscow

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      Also, a major U.N. climate report and a manhunt in the Indian state of Punjab.This photograph released by Russian state media shows Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping at the Kremlin yesterday.Sergei Karpukhin/SputnikXi meets Putin in MoscowPresident Vladimir Putin welcomed Xi Jinping at the Kremlin yesterday and pledged that Russia would study China’s peace proposals for Ukraine “with respect.” But Xi did not mention Ukraine at all in his public remarks.Though the war and the divides that it exposed hung over the meeting, the leaders focused on projecting unity and shoring up their countries’ overall relationship during the three-day summit.“Dear friend, welcome to Russia,” Putin told Xi, who is the highest-profile world leader to visit since the invasion. Putin said that China took a “fair and balanced position on the majority of international problems.” Xi hailed the two nations as “good neighbors and reliable partners,” Russian state media said.The state visit, which is being closely watched by Kyiv and its allies, underscores China’s increasingly close ties with Russia. The U.S. has warned that China could go even further than diplomatic or economic support for Russia, possibly by supplying weapons to use in the war.A peace mission? Chinese officials have tried to cast Xi as a mediator who can broker peace, though Western leaders have expressed doubts. Ukrainian officials have brushed off China’s proposals for peace talks and have insisted that a complete Russian withdrawal is a precondition for negotiations.War crimes: In its first response to the arrest warrant for Putin issued by the International Criminal Court, China’s foreign ministry said that the court should “avoid politicization and double standards.”U.S. reaction: Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that Xi’s visit amounts to Beijing’s providing “diplomatic cover for Russia to continue to commit” war crimes.“We are walking when we should be sprinting,” said Hoesung Lee, the chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Sean Gallup/Getty ImagesClimate’s ‘rapidly closing window’A major U.N. climate report said that the Earth would most likely cross a critical global warming threshold within the next decade — unless countries made an immediate and drastic shift away from fossil fuels. There is “a rapidly closing window of opportunity” to address climate change, the report said.The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which issued the report, said that global average temperatures are estimated to rise 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels sometime around “the first half of the 2030s.” Beyond that point, scientists say, the impacts of climate change — catastrophic heat waves, crop failures and species extinction — will become much harder for humanity to handle. To shift course, the report said, countries need to cut greenhouse gases by half by 2030 and stop emitting carbon dioxide altogether by the early 2050s. If those two steps were to be taken, the world would have about a 50 percent chance of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.Practically, that means retiring fossil fuel infrastructure or canceling planned projects. It also means efforts like expanding wind and solar energies, making cities friendlier to pedestrians and cyclists and reducing food waste.However, global fossil-fuel emissions set records last year, while China and the U.S. continue to approve new fossil fuel projects. Under the current policies, Earth’s temperature is estimated to heat up by 2.1 to 2.9 degrees Celsius this century.Analysis: “The report is sobering, gut-wrenching and above all, practical,” my colleague Somini Sengupta writes in our climate newsletter. “Its clearest takeaway: The continued use of fossil fuels is harming all of us, and harming some of us a lot more.”The cost: Governments and companies would need to invest three to six times as much as they currently spend to hold global warming at 1.5 or 2 degrees, the report says.Police officers outside the home of Amritpal Singh in Jallupur Khera, a village in Punjab.Narinder Nanu/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesIndia’s manhunt in PunjabIndian authorities have restricted communications in Punjab for a third day as a manhunt continues for Amritpal Singh, a Sikh separatist leader who has called for an independent Sikh homeland. Singh’s rapid rise in the public eye has stirred fears of violence in India’s only Sikh-majority state, which still has vivid memories of a deadly separatist insurgency. The search for Singh began on Saturday. Since then, the government has blocked the internet, restricted mobile communications and deployed thousands of paramilitary soldiers. The manhunt comes a month after Singh and hundreds of his supporters stormed a police station armed with swords and firearms, demanding the release of an aide. Six police officials were injured in the clash. History: For many in India, the clash was similar to the 1980s revolt in Punjab, when thousands were killed during an insurgency organized by Sikh separatists that raged for years.Singh: The 30-year-old self-styled preacher has called for protecting Sikh rights against what he believed to be the overreach of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist government. He also implicitly threatened Amit Shah, the home minister.THE LATEST NEWSAsia PacificNeo-Nazis have shown up at a number of events in the past few months in Melbourne.James Ross/EPA, via ShutterstockThe Australian state of Victoria moved to ban the Nazi salute after protesters gave the salute at a rally against transgender rights in Melbourne.The Taliban ordered officials in Afghanistan to fire relatives that they had hired to government posts, the BBC reported.Around the WorldLawmakers protested the pension overhaul after the government survived yesterday.Bertrand Guay/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesIn France, President Emmanuel Macron’s government survived a no-confidence vote, ensuring his bill to raise the retirement age to 64 becomes the law of the land.Israel’s government plans to enact the most contentious part of its proposed judicial overhaul next month, but other changes were postponed in a move that was framed as a concession.Twenty years after the U.S. invasion of Iraq, Times journalists explore the lives of young people who grew up with the traumas of war. An estimated 43,000 people died in Somalia’s drought last year, according to the first official death toll. At least half were children younger than 5.From OpinionThe authoritarian, Hindu nationalist streak of Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India is worth worrying about, Nicholas Kristof writes.Nan Lin, an activist in hiding, lives a dangerous, lonely life in Myanmar. His apartment “is both sanctuary and prison,” he writes. A Morning ReadNoriko Hayashi for The New York TimesJapan’s exotic animal cafes are popular selfie spots, but a survey found that many contain critically endangered species — and others banned from international trade.Similar cafes have cropped up in other Asian countries. Critics say they could threaten wildlife conservation, animal welfare and public health.ARTS AND IDEASThe “afternoon fun” economyKate Thornton for The New York TimesRemote workers in the U.S. have fueled a surge in midday exercise and beauty treatments during the workweek. With new flexibility, they are opting to extend their leisure time into the afternoon, and tack on extra hours of work after dark — often with the blessing of their bosses.For instance, a new study using geolocation data found that there were 278 percent more people playing golf at 4 p.m. on a Wednesday in August 2022 than in August 2019. One of the report’s authors said that the rise of afternoon leisure could have an under-examined role in driving the economic rebound since 2020.“They’re not sneaking away,” the owner of a golf course in New Jersey said. “They’re getting the work done, just not at your typical hours.”PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookBryan Gardner for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Barrett Washburne.Make these salmon saffron kebabs for the Persian festival Nowruz, which starts this week.What to Read“The Nursery” paints a frightening, honest and claustrophobic picture of new motherhood.What to WatchA rare British romantic comedy with Black leads, “Rye Lane” celebrates love in London.ExerciseTry this 19-minute high-intensity interval training workout for beginners.Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: Tremble (five letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you next time. — AmeliaP.S. The Times announced its fifth cohort of young career journalists who will join our newsroom for a year on a fellowship.“The Daily” is on U.S. concerns about TikTok.We’d love your thoughts: briefing@nytimes.com. More

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      ‘Russia Outside Russia’: For Elite, Dubai Becomes a Wartime Harbor

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      DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — On an artificial island on the edge of the Persian Gulf, Dima Tutkov feels safe.There are none of the anti-Russian attitudes that he hears about in Europe. He has noticed no potholes or homelessness, unlike what he saw in Los Angeles. And even as his ad agency turns big profits back in Russia, he does not have to worry about being drafted to fight in Ukraine.“Dubai is much more free — in every way,” he said, sporting an intricately torn designer T-shirt at a cafe he just opened in the city, where his children are now in a British school. “We are independent of Russia,” he said. “This is very important.”A year into a historic onslaught of economic sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s rich are still rich. And in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates’ biggest city, they have found their wartime harbor.Among the city’s waterfront walkways, palatial shopping malls and suburban cul-de-sacs, Russian is becoming a lingua franca. Oligarchs mingle in exclusive resorts. Restaurateurs from Moscow and St. Petersburg race to open there. Entrepreneurs like Mr. Tutkov are running their Russian businesses from Dubai, and opening up new ones.The Dubai Marina Mall attracts Russians who are visiting or who have relocated to the city.Dima Tutkov, a founder of the cafe Angel Cakes, at the Bluewaters Island location.Dubai’s new Russian diaspora spans a spectrum that includes multibillionaires who have been punished with sanctions and middle-class tech workers who fled President Vladimir V. Putin’s draft. But to some extent, they share the same reasons for being in the Emirates: It has maintained direct flights to Russia, staked out neutral ground on the war in Ukraine, and, they say, displays none of the hostility toward Russians that they perceive in Europe.“Why do business somewhere that they’re not friendly to you?” says Tamara Bigaeva, who recently opened a two-story outpost of a Russian beauty clinic that is already welcoming longtime clients. “In Europe, they clearly don’t want to see us.”Indeed, a major draw of Dubai is that it is apolitical, according to interviews with Russians who have settled there. Unlike in Western Europe, there are no Ukrainian flags displayed in public and no rallies of solidarity. The war itself feels far away. Anyone in Dubai harboring anti-Russian sentiments would most likely keep them to themselves, anyway; protests in the Emirates’ authoritarian monarchy are effectively illegal, and freedom of assembly is severely limited.The presence of wealthy Russians in Dubai at a time when they have been largely cut off from the West shows how Mr. Putin has been able to maintain the social contract that is key to his domestic support: In exchange for loyalty, those close to power can amass enormous riches.The State of the WarTesting Swiss Neutrality: The Alpine nation makes arms that Western allies want to send to Ukraine. Swiss law bans this, driving a national debate about whether its concept of neutrality should change.Kupiansk: Months after Russian soldiers were driven out of the town in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, Ukrainian authorities are stepping up efforts to evacuate civilians amid relentless Russian shelling.Bakhmut: Ukraine insisted that its forces were fending off relentless Russian attacks in Bakhmut, even as Western analysts said that Moscow’s forces had captured most of the embattled city’s east and established a new front line cutting through its center.In fact, one political scientist, Ekaterina Schulmann, said Mr. Putin has been signaling to businessmen that he is prepared to remove still more obstacles to enrichment. A recent law, for example, frees lawmakers from having to make public their income and property.“Yes, we’ve cut you off from the First World, but things won’t get any worse for you,” Ms. Schulmann said, describing how she sees Mr. Putin’s revised contract with the elite. “First of all, there are many other countries that are friendly to us. Second, you’ll have plenty of opportunities to get even richer, and we will no longer prosecute you for corruption.”Publicly, Mr. Putin has been calling on jet-setting Russian elites to refocus their lives and their investments inside Russia. But the rich who have relocated to Dubai have other ideas.Nail services at the Russian beauty chain Sugar in Dubai’s Marina District.Tamara Bigaeva, founder of the Evolution Aesthetics Clinic in the upscale neighborhood of Jumeirah in Dubai.“For all of us, this is an island of safety for a certain period of time,” said Anatoly Kamenskikh, a Russian real estate salesman who brags that his team sold $300 million worth of property in Dubai last year — the vast majority to Russian citizens. “Everyone is trying to park their assets somewhere.”Mr. Kamenskikh’s real estate developer, Sobha Realty, celebrated Dubai’s Russian-driven real estate boom by setting up a miniature St. Basil’s Cathedral and artificial snow outside the sales office. A section of the artificial island called the Palm Jumeirah is lined with Russian restaurants and nightclubs, one of which was packed on a recent Wednesday night as guests ordered $1,200 bottles of Dom Pérignon Champagne that dancing waiters delivered with lighted sparklers.When one drunken guest yelled out, “Glory to Ukraine!” the bouncers swiftly saw him out.Sobha Hartland, a new development project by the upscale real estate developer Sobha.Anatoly Kamenskikh at Sobha’s sales center. He calls Dubai “an island of safety.”“You get the feeling that they have their head in the sand,” Dmytro Kotelenets, a Ukrainian entertainment producer who moved to Dubai with his family, said of the Russians around him. “They either don’t want to notice what’s happening between Russia and Ukraine, or they think that nothing has changed.”In his state-of-the-nation speech last month, Mr. Putin called on Russia’s wealthy to “be with your Motherland” and to bring their financial assets home, rather than to view Russia “as simply a source of income” from abroad.In fact, many of Russia’s rich are simply shifting their lives to the United Arab Emirates, which — like the rest of the Middle East — has refused to join the West’s sanctions against Moscow.“I’m in Dubai, I’m chilling,” go the lyrics to the current No. 1 song in Russia, according to Apple Music. “Yeah, I’m rich, and I don’t hide it.”A view of the Palm Jumeirah, which has some of the most sought-after real estate in Dubai.A street scene in the Deira District of Dubai.The Emirates has a population of about 10 million, of whom only about a million are Emirati citizens. The rest are expatriates, including millions of Indians and Pakistanis, and smaller numbers of Europeans and Americans.A New York Times analysis of flight records last spring found that the United Arab Emirates became the top destination for private flights out of Russia in the weeks after the invasion, which began Feb. 24, 2022. Since then, by all accounts, the country’s allure has only grown.Russian government statistics show that Russians took 1.2 million trips to the Emirates in 2022, compared with one million in the pre-pandemic year of 2019. Many of those visitors put down roots: Russians were the leading nonresident buyers of Dubai real estate in 2022 by nationality, according to Betterhomes, a Dubai brokerage.First, there are the tycoons. Andrey Melnichenko, a Russian coal and fertilizer billionaire, moved to the United Arab Emirates last year after sanctions forced him to leave his longtime home in Switzerland. Last month, in the hushed lobby of an exclusive resort, another penalized Russian businessman said he was in town for a birthday party.Russian officials and their families also visit, though they try to avoid calling attention to their presence, and for good reason: In the northwest Russian region of Vologda, the pro-Kremlin United Russia party expelled two local lawmakers after social media posts placed them in Dubai. One of them, Russian journalists studying their posts reported, was vacationing there with Ksenia Shoigu, the daughter of the Russian defense minister.The elite cross paths at Angel Cakes, an Instagram-friendly cafe that Mr. Tutkov, the advertising entrepreneur, opened on an artificial island called Bluewaters in the shadow of the world’s tallest Ferris wheel. One frequent guest of the cafe, the former president of a major Russian company, quipped, “Dubai is becoming a part of Russia outside Russia.”Performers singing at Chalet Berezka, a Russian restaurant and nightclub in Palm Jumeirah.Staff members serving a bottle of Dom Pérignon, priced at about $1,200, to guests at Chalet Berezka.Mr. Tutkov dismissed as an “illusion” the idea that sanctions had wrecked the Russian economy. His advertising agency, he said, was profiting as companies race to fill the vacuum left by Western corporations that pulled out of Russia. His clients include Haier, a Chinese home appliance maker trying to break into a market that had been dominated by more established brands.Sanctions on the financial system also proved no hindrance. Last summer, the ruble soared to historic highs against the dollar. Mr. Tutkov said he took advantage of the exchange rate by using Russian banks that had not been placed under sanction to move some of his ad agency’s profits to Dubai.“We were exchanging into dollars and transferring them here,” he said. “In dollars, we were getting colossal excess profits, you understand? And everyone was doing this.”Mr. Tutkov and his family had planned to spend the summer in Moscow. But after Mr. Putin’s draft last fall, he is no longer sure he will go back.“These are colossal risks,” said Mr. Tutkov, 39. “What if you can’t leave or they take you into the army or something?”The diaspora also includes smaller earners, among them art-world types, technology workers and employees of Western companies that relocated their Moscow offices to the city.Dmitri Balakirev, who worked in tech in the Ural Mountains, left Russia because he opposed the war, he said, and went to Dubai because he had visited it previously thanks to direct flights from his city.Mr. Balakirev decided to stay and start a real estate agency. He judged that direct flights to Russia were likely to remain, allowing him to stay in touch with his relatives. And he saw it as a place where he could make a living.Potential buyers at Sobha’s sales center looking at a model of a planned development.Dmitri Balakirev, far back at right, an agent at Inside Realty, in Dubai’s Media City.Emirati officials say that their banks follow all American sanctions-related rules. Indeed, many Russian émigrés say that among the hardest parts about moving to Dubai is opening a bank account, attributing monthslong waits to the banks’ exacting compliance requirements.“There are many Russians who are not sanctioned and are interested in safer havens,” Anwar Gargash, a diplomatic adviser to the Emirates’ president, told reporters last year.Among those who found a haven in Dubai last year is the Russian pop star Daria Zoteyeva, the singer of Russia’s current No. 1 hit. She now lives in an unfinished luxury housing development in the desert. At night, a light show flashes across the Burj Khalifa, the world’s tallest skyscraper, in the distance.To make music, Ms. Zoteyeva said in an interview on a roadside bench, “you need to be in a good mood.” Dubai, she goes on, is a “sunny place” where the war “doesn’t affect you.” She refuses to take a position on the war, which she calls “this whole situation.”“It’s to avoid letting go of my audience, and to make money,” she said, explaining her silence. “Because it’s a lot of money. It’s a lot of money.”Fountains at The Pointe on the swanky Palm Jumeirah.Vivian Nereim More