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      Kamala Harris’s rise has energized many Asian Americans. Could these ‘unmeasured’ voters swing battleground states?

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      “America, the path that led me here in recent weeks, was no doubt … unexpected. But I’m no stranger to unlikely journeys. My mother, Shyamala Harris, had one of her own … traveling from India to California, with an unshakeable dream.”With these words, Vice-President Kamala Harris began her acceptance speech on the final night of an epic convention, embracing the unprecedented means by which she had arrived at the Democratic presidential nomination, and elevating her identity as the daughter of an immigrant mother from India.For those of us who had never imagined that in our lifetimes we might have an Asian American president, this was a staggering moment – not least because the discourse leading up to this convention had been so badly derailed by Donald Trump’s bizarre questioning of Harris’s biracial identity. In the wake of Trump’s allegation that Harris had “only promoted her Indian heritage” in the past, until she had decided to “turn Black”, there was whispered concern from some corners of the Asian community that Harris might be forced to downplay her mother’s ancestry while reaffirming her father’s Caribbean roots.The concern was unnecessary. Like most people of multiracial background, Harris has always been both/and, not either/or, celebrating both her Black and Asian birthrights with equal pride – and in the run-up to the convention, Black and Asian Americans have celebrated along with her.An internet-shattering Black Women for Harris Zoom call drew 44,000 attendees and raised $1.5m in three hours. Three days later, a South Asian Women for Harris online rally, headlined by the US representative Pramila Jayapal and the actor/producer Mindy Kaling gathered a crowd of 9,000 and equaled its predecessor’s $1.5m in the same span. It paved the way for a cascade of other Asian American events, packed with energetic and enthusiastic participants such as the actor and comedian Ken Jeong, who exhorted at the online AANHPI Men for Kamala event: “This is our time – this is our moment!”The excitement that Jeong and many fellow Asian Americans are feeling over Harris’s rise has been unmeasured. I mean that both metaphorically and literally, because when it comes to the major entities tracking the state of the election, the polls aren’t measuring it.For decades, there’s been a term used for Asian Americans in the electoral process, and it begins with O. (No, not “Oriental”, though, yes, that too.) The term is “Other”, as in the miscellaneous bin into which pollsters cast any non-white, non-Black, and non-Latino person in their data samples, turning us into unidentified trimmings from the Democratic donkey or Republican elephant – enigmatic bulk filler for the political sausage.View image in fullscreenLumping us into the undifferentiated Other might have made some sense when Asian Americans were a tiny fraction of the population and an even smaller one of the electorate – say, in 1980, when Asians made up 1.5% of the US population, about 3.7 million people, and represented roughly a million registered voters.But that was then; this is now. Asian Americans, who have consistently been the fastest-growing racial or ethnic group in the US over the past half-century of census tallies, now make up 6.2% of the population, or 21 million people, at least 15 million of whom are eligible to vote. That’s bigger than the national voting-eligible populations were for Latino or Black Americans in 1980, when both groups were already being broken out in voter surveys and targeted by campaigns. And in battleground states like Pennsylvania (769% growth since 1980, to 612,567) and Georgia (2,246% growth since 1980, to 610,257), the Asian population has soared, making us critical swing voters in those critical swing states. In fact, an analysis by the electoral consultant TargetSmart suggests that the entire victory margin for Joe Biden in 2020 in such states may have come from the surging Asian American vote.Yet still today, even with the growing influence of an Asian American Democratic presidential nominee, in many major polls, Asian Americans remain “othered”.Pollsters are quick to blame language issues (although three-quarters of Asian Americans speak proficient English, about the same rate of fluency as in the Latino population), difficulty in finding willing respondents, and a lack of culturally sensitive surveys and data tools. The reality is that, with proper investment and effort, all of these challenges can be readily addressed. The fact that they largely haven’t been comes down to a single awkward truth: Asian Americans have never in US history been seen as salient to this nation’s political discourse.Of course, it’s an uphill battle to be seen as “politically relevant” when you’re part of the only group that’s ever been explicitly excluded from this country based on race. The Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882 prohibited non-resident Chinese from entering the US, and 35 years later, that ban was expanded to an “Asiatic Barred Zone” that included nearly all of Asia. This exclusion was a prelude to outright hostility. Throughout the 20th century, the US would find itself in conflict with Asians, waging military campaigns against enemy forces in Japan in the 40s, Korea in the 50s, and Vietnam in the 60s and 70s, and then engaging in ugly trade wars against a resurgent Japan in the 70s and 80s and a fast-rising China in the 90s and 2000s.Given that for most of this nation’s modern history, Asians have been excluded as undesirables or vilified as enemies, it’s hardly surprising that even after the Hart-Celler Act swung open the US’s doors to immigration in 1965, many newcomers kept their distance from politics and other professions in the spotlight – such as journalism and entertainment – and advised their offspring to do the same. The nail that sticks up gets hammered down, they said. Better to be silent than scrutinized and found wanting. Better to be invisible than targeted. Those of us who pursued such professions often did so over the skepticism or condemnation of our parents.That wasn’t the case for Kamala Harris, whose Jamaican father and Tamil Indian mother raised her within Oakland’s Black activist community and seeded her with a passion for service through the example of her maternal grandfather, PV Gopalan, a lifelong civil administrator who oversaw refugee relief in Zambia and served as joint secretary to the government of India during the 1960s. Together, they encouraged her from childhood on to step into the harsh glare of public scrutiny, and to embrace politics as a career.View image in fullscreenAnd Harris’s example has resonated widely, including among others who have made similar decisions to take on jobs that make them socially visible.At the recent Asian American Journalists Association convention in Austin, Texas, Aisha Sultan, an opinion columnist for the St Louis Post-Dispatch, shared how Harris’s ascension had “given her hope in very dark times”.“All of us Asian American journalists who had to break into predominantly white spaces, we know what she had to go through to get here,” she said. “So we know it’s possible, and now I’m absolutely going to manifest this. I’m not going to accept anything other than President Harris.”Sultan’s excitement was echoed by the former ABC news producer Waliya Lari, now communications director for Pillars Fund, a non-profit that seeks to build visibility for Muslim Americans. “The day after Harris became the nominee, I got very emotional,” she said. “I was thrilled to be able to tell my girls: ‘Look at that. That’s someone just like you.’ They say you can’t be what you can’t see. Well, now they’re seeing it.”Because for those of us who have been American all along but often haven’t been perceived as such, the elevation of an Asian American president means that pollsters, political campaigns and policymakers alike will need to acknowledge that we’re Other no longer. And as Ken Jeong says, this is our moment – because the first wave in a rising tide of younger voters is finally ready and eager to see an Asian American in the Oval Office. As data pulled from the Asian American Foundation’s Staatus Index survey shows, while just 34% of Americans 65 and older and 42% of those aged 45-64 are “very comfortable” with an Asian American in the White House, a majority of those aged 16-44 say they’re ready for that to happen, and have been since Harris was elected vice-president.You can’t be what you can’t see. But it isn’t just about seeing, it’s about being seen – and for the first time, on the biggest of possible stages, in the brightest of possible spotlights, we’re finally being seen. More

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      ‘Excited to show up for her’: mixed-race voters finally feel seen with Harris’s nomination

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      For Sonia Smith Kang, it hasn’t come as a surprise that Kamala Harris’s ethnic background has been challenged by her opponent and other members of the Republican party. “It’s what mixed folks have been dealing with for a long time,” said Smith Kang, who is both Mexican and Black and is married to a Korean man.Since Donald Trump’s false attacks on the racial identity of Kamala Harris at the National Association of Black Journalists’ annual convention last month, he has purposely mispronounced her name, posted a photo of her in a traditional Indian sari and employed supporters to claim that the Democratic presidential candidate is not Black. For mixed-race voters who heard Trump state that Harris “happened to turn Black”, feelings of anger, frustration and annoyance instantly arose.“Everyone thinks we’re in this post-racial time, but Trump proved why classes and courses still need to be taught,” Smith Kang said.When the landmark case Loving v Virginia overturned state laws that restricted interracial marriage in the US in 1967, just 3% of marriages were interracial. By 2019, that number grew to 11%. Today, about one in 10 Americans – 33.8 million people – identify as mixed race.The rapid rise of multiracial people could not only affect the 2024 election, but reshape American electoral politics since mixed-race people tend to be young and the country’s white population is ageing. The Guardian spoke to numerous biracial and multiracial Americans who see their own stories in Harris and believe her mixed heritage gives her a political advantage.Smith Kang, the founder of the multicultural children’s apparel line Mixed Up Clothing and the vice-president of the non-profit advocacy group Multiracial Americans of Southern California is organizing a national call later this month to galvanize the mixed-race community to support Harris. “We’re really excited to mobilize and show up for her,” said the San Fernando Valley resident.View image in fullscreenAfter Barack Obama, Harris is the second-ever presidential nominee of a major political party to identify as biracial or mixed race. The daughter of an Indian mother and Jamaican father, Harris has long embraced her south Asian and Black ethnic background. As her popularity has shot up in recent weeks, the topic of multiracial identity has been thrust into the spotlight.“I had to reread Trump’s quotes and the first things I felt were shock and also anger and defensiveness of Kamala Harris,” said Charlee Thompson, who lives in Seattle and works on clean energy and climate policy. “The fact that mixed identity is in the mainstream media on this political stage is shocking to me.”Thompson, who has a Japanese mother from Hawaii and a Mexican and white father, said multiracial people like herself and Harris were still treated as different or exotic even in 2024. “In the last month, I had three different people in completely different situations ask me or guess what I was,” she said. “I think light needs to be shed on the fact that multiracial people exist and how people respond can be othering or make people feel like they don’t belong in the community they belong to.”Dr Jenn Noble, a psychologist and educator who coaches parents of mixed-race kids, believes something more sinister than ignorance is going on when it comes to Trump questioning Harris’s identity. “He’s doing something a lot of people accuse mixed-race people of, which is being deceitful or somehow playing their background in a way that benefits them or suits them when it fits them,” she said.Los Angeles-based Noble, who is of Black and Sri Lankan heritage, said research shows there are benefits to being mixed race such as cognitive flexibility, which allows for people who are exposed to multiple languages or cultures to switch between groups easily, which could benefit the vice-president during her run. “I think Harris would have quite a bit of the skills to see the needs of varying groups and meet them in a way that works for that group,” she said.View image in fullscreenAfter Trump received widespread criticism for his remarks about Harris, the Republican vice-presidential candidate, JD Vance, defended the former president’s comments, saying Harris was “fundamentally a fake person” and “chameleon-like”. Vance has biracial children with his Indian American wife, Usha. (Vance recently told CNN he believed Harris was “whatever she says she is”.)Academics and mental health professionals have said they worry about the implications of Trump’s comments, as “identity denial” – telling someone they are not what they actually are – is a common stressor for mixed-race Americans. Historically in the US, the one-drop rule asserted that anyone with a Black ancestor was considered Black and even today, multiracial people are often spoken about in fractions rather than using words like “both” or “and”.The 2020 US Census made it easier for multiracial people to identify themselves, which led to an increase in population and a more accurate portrait of a racially diverse country. According to a recent New York Times analysis, the number of Americans who identify as both Black and Asian has tripled over the last 15 years to more than 600,000 – and about 20% of them live in Harris’s home state of California.For David Chetlain, a resident of Newberg, Oregon, who was born to a white American mother and a Black father from Ghana and adopted by a Native American mother and white father, Trump’s recent remarks made him recall the times strangers interrogated his own appearance, making comments such as: “Where did you come from?” and asking his mother: “Did the milkman pay you a visit?”“When people do that it’s to demean you or put you in a box,” said Chetlain, a navy veteran who works in software sales. “People try to make you feel less of an American.” What Chetlain has learned so far about Harris and her late mother, a breast cancer researcher, and father, a prominent economist, impressed him.“They are the American Dream,” said Chetlain of Harris and her immigrant parents. “That’s a true meritocracy. Nobody gave [Harris] $400m to start a career of fraud and tax evasion.” More

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      ‘She may be family, but we need to hold her accountable’: Howard students cautiously excited by Kamala Harris

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      On Tuesday, day two of the Democratic national convention in Chicago, Howard University, in Washington DC, was abuzz with students excited about alumna Kamala Harris’s presidential candidacy. The Guardian spoke to several students who expressed pride that one of their own may assume the highest office, which they hoped would shine a light on historically Black colleges and universities (HBCUs). Others emphasized the need to hold Harris accountable on Gaza policy, as well as on issues that affect Black communities, such as overpolicing and high maternal death rates.“I was pretty happy to not only be a Howard student, but to be Black as well,” Shondo Green, a 20-year-old biology major, said about Harris’s nomination. The general sentiment on campus since classes started on Monday has been uplifting – everyone is smiling, he said. “There’s something different about this year compared to my previous two years. There’s something in the air.”Hundreds of Howard University students milled around the Yard, the central hub of campus life, in between classes during the first week of school. Surrounding the grassy area were trees painted with Greek letters that represent the Black sororities and fraternities known as the Divine Nine. Harris, a member of Alpha Kappa Alpha sorority, pledged as a Howard student in the 1980s.Dezmond Rosier, a member of Alpha Phi Alpha fraternity and a senior studying political science and economics, said he was thrilled to vote in a presidential election for the first time. His main concerns were about cancelling student debt and ensuring that “the justice system is justice for all”. Rosier wants to see Harris create just policies around the possession of cannabis as it becomes legalized in states throughout the nation while “there’s still people in our prison systems who are unfortunately being held up for things that are now considered legal”.View image in fullscreen“She may be our family member in the sense of the university,” Rosier said, “but we also need to hold her accountable.”Outside the university’s auditorium, Ruqayyah Taylor, a senior from Norristown, Pennsylvania, attended a back-to-school pop-up event hosted by DTLR Radio. The 21-year-old journalism major wants to see Harris continue working toward the student debt forgiveness plan put forward by the Biden-Harris administration, which was thwarted by court challenges. She lauded the Harris campaign’s use of social media to galvanize gen-Z voters.“I think that she has the ability to [change course on Gaza policy],” Taylor said. “She has a different sense of awareness that Biden doesn’t have, whether it be because of age or demographics.”At the library, senior Jaden Lopes da Silva said he wanted to see more outreach efforts that catered to young Black voters. “[Her engagement] is more of a broad gen-Z sort of thing, but it appears to be more towards pop culture,” he said, referencing the Harris campaign’s embrace of the “brat” label from the pop musician Charli xcx. “I haven’t really seen anything specifically towards the Black gen-Z community.” Sitting next to him, junior Nala Francis said she considered Harris’s nomination her generation’s version of Barack Obama, who became president when she was a toddler. “I never had the experience of ‘oh we could get a Black president,’ and now that we get a Black president that is also a woman and from Howard,” she said. “This is literally history in the making and I’m now old enough to be a part of it.”Friends Jada Phillips and Jada Freeman, 19-year-old sophomores from Chicago, chatted on a walkway in between classes. “I think it’s going to bring a lot of light to Howard itself and how good of a school it is,” Freeman said about an alumna being the Democratic nominee. She plans to vote for Harris, but Phillips said that she wants to see how Harris’s economic policies will differ from previous administrations.View image in fullscreenAt a nearby cafe, Msia Kibona Clark, an associate professor in Howard’s department of African studies, recalled receiving a pop-up alert on her phone that Harris would be the presumptive nominee. She said that she was waiting to see if Harris changes course on US’s Gaza policy; however, she felt hopeful that Harris seems to be more empathetic toward the plight of Palestinians than Biden does. “From her talks before, her appearances, she definitely has been less embracing of Israel, so that has given me hope,” Kibona Clark said.Marcus Board, an associate professor of political science, said that if Harris becomes president, he would like to see her work with racial justice organizers. “I hope that they do choose to work with movement organizers who, as my research shows, are the people who are reinforcing democracy … reinforcing inclusion, access to care, access to human rights,” he said. “Without them, this whole thing is gonna fall faster than a freshman’s GPA.”View image in fullscreenLast week, freshman Elijah Sanford Abdul-Aziz waited in a long line to hear Harris speak on campus. “I’ve only been here for like two weeks, so that’s fire to me,” said Sanford Abdul-Aziz, an 18-year-old political science major. “It was like when one of the old ladies from church tells you about how they used to know you, when she talked about her orientation in the auditorium.” He said he was inspired by her statement that students could become president of the United States with hard work and determination. “She’s a vision of what you can be,” he said.Even though he said that he will cast a ballot for Harris in November, he wasn’t “super-duper excited”, given the US’s continued funding of Israel’s war on Gaza, in which more than 40,000 Palestinians have been killed since 7 October. “It’s either Kamala or Donald Trump,” Sanford Abdul-Aziz said. “I look at it as we can’t advocate as much as we can under Trump as we can for Kamala.” Sanford Abdul-Aziz said that he has one message for Harris about US allyship with Israel: “In 2020 I remember she said during a vice-presidential debate that allies are like your friends. And I know that to be a good friend, you have to hold your friends accountable.” More

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      How Philando Castile’s mother helped pioneer Tim Walz’s free school lunch program

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      When the Democratic nominee, Kamala Harris, named the Minnesota governor, Tim Walz, as her running mate two weeks ago, the public lauded Walz for bringing free breakfast and lunch to all students throughout the state. Ever since, the topic of universal school meals has become a nationwide discussion. But it’s little known that the work of Valerie Castile, the mother of Philando Castile, helped drive Walz’s legislation.After Philando was fatally shot by Minnesota police during a traffic stop in July 2016, Castile learned from her son’s co-workers about his passion for reducing school lunch debt – the amount of money that households owe to school districts for covering meals they can’t afford. As a school nutrition supervisor in Saint Paul, Minnesota, Philando was intimately familiar with food insecurity. He often paid for students’ meals when they couldn’t afford them and interjected when kids were bullied for receiving free lunch. Affectionately deemed “Mr Phil” by students, he knew the names of all 500 children at JJ Hill Montessori school, their food allergies and how to keep them safe.Students would “try to be slick, and get something they’re not supposed to have. If they were lactose-intolerant, [Philando would say] ‘you want that chocolate milk, but you can’t have it,’” Castile said.In 2017, she launched the Philando Castile Relief Foundation in her son’s honor to help pay off lunch debt and to support other families who lost their loved ones to gun violence.For years, she worked with lawmakers to ensure that all Minnesota children had access to nutritious meals at school. Due to Castile’s advocacy, as well as the work of Hunger Free Schools Campaign, last spring Walz signed legislation to provide free breakfast and lunch to all students, regardless of their qualifications. Castile and other advocates hope that the spotlight on Minnesota will lead to the passage of similar laws throughout the nation.“It’s been great to see that early work come to full fruition,” Leah Gardner, the campaign manager of Hunger Free Schools Campaign and the policy director of the non-profit The Food Group, said about the Philando Castile Relief Foundation. “The ideal is that the federal government should just make this be a thing across the country.”At the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, the federal government provided free meals to all children. But that program ended in 2022, leaving states to draw from state funds if they wanted to continue the initiative.In Minnesota, before the passage of the free school meals legislation, about a third of students received free and reduced lunches, “and that doesn’t count low income families that are just over the qualifications required for free and reduced meals”, said Minnesota state senator Heather Gustafson, the bill’s author, during a committee hearing. At the time, lunch debt in Roseville area schools, one of more than 300 school districts in the state, totaled $120,000.Black and Latino families in Minnesota are twice as likely as white households to lack access to nutritious food, according to Gardner. The Hunger Free Schools Campaign, which is composed of 30 organizations, saw free meals as an opportunity to address racial inequality throughout the state. “When they’re at school and can have two of their three meals at school at no cost, that goes a long way to making sure that they’re getting access to food,” Gardner said.So far, eight states including Michigan, California, Maine, New Mexico, Minnesota, Massachusetts, Colorado and Vermont have passed universal school meal programs. And on the national level, the representative Ilhan Omar from Minnesota introduced legislation to provide free breakfast and lunches throughout the nation last year.View image in fullscreenThough the Hunger Free Schools Campaign is still analyzing the impact of the Minnesota program’s first year, Gardner said that participation in breakfast had increased by 41% and lunch by 19% since 2023.Castile said she was grateful that fewer students are going hungry in the state, but wished that the legislation also forgave students’ prior lunch debt. “Unfortunately, there was no retroactive thing in place when the bill was passed … to wipe all this away,” Castile said. Still, school districts are prohibited from denying children free meals based on their unpaid lunch debt.“The ultimate goal was to get them guys to see it our way and actually do something about that issue,” Castile said about the legislation’s passage. “It was a hidden burden on family.”Since Minnesota launched its meal program, the Philando Castile Relief Foundation has pivoted to helping single mothers find housing. “There are quite a few parents that are dislocated because of the economic problems that we’re having,” Castile said.Over the past seven years, the foundation has donated goods totaling upwards of $250,000 through its various initiatives, including providing turkeys on Thanksgiving, backpacks with school supplies to children, and $50 gift cards to families during the holiday season.For other states that are considering similar legislation, politicians who worked on the bill recommend centering the voices of people who are personally affected by food insecurity. “This was always about Philando and Mr Phil and why I voted yes on this bill,” the Minnesota state senator Clare Oumou Verbeten said.Ultimately, Castile wants to see free school meals throughout the nation and has considered taking “this show on the road and go and speak with other legislators and representatives and let them know how important it is”, she said. “Children, they don’t learn to their full capacity when they’re hungry.” More

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      Harley-Davidson drops DEI initiatives amid pressure from ‘anti-woke’ activists

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      Motorcycle maker Harley-Davidson has become the latest manufacturer to drop diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives amid sustained pressure from anti-DEI activist Robby Starbuck.In a statement Monday, the Milwaukee-based company said it has not operated a corporate DEI function since April, no longer has minority-owned supplier goals and plans to exit socially motivated training for employees.Harley-Davidson’s statement, posted on X, said that it sees “every leader’s role to ensure we have an employee base that reflects our customers and the geographies in which we operate” – and the company would limit training to legal requirements.“We are saddened by the negativity on social media over the last few weeks, designed to divide the Harley-Davidson community,” the statement said. “As a company, we take this issue very seriously, and it is our responsibility to respond with clarity, action and facts.”The company said in the statement that it will also reorganize employee resource groups to focus on business development, mentoring and training. Having a “broad customer base is good for business”, it added.Harley-Davidson has been in the cross-hairs of anti-DEI activists who earlier this summer won similar concessions from retailer Tractor Supply and farming equipment maker John Deere & Co. The tractor maker said in a statement in July it would no longer participate in “cultural awareness parades”.The motorcycle maker said in an email to staff that it began a review of its “stakeholder and outreach activities” earlier this year. Harley-Davidson had been under attack from anti-DEI activist Starbuck, who accused it of adopting “the woke agenda of the very far left”.More broadly, the issue of DEI has become a political lightning rod that reflects US political divisions, with American businesses anticipating an even broader roll-back of such initiatives if Donald Trump wins a second presidency in November.“It’s time to get rid of these policies and bring back a sense of neutrality and sanity in corporate America,” Starbuck said in an interview with Bloomberg, pointing to activism on social media by Harley-Davidson influencers for the company’s move. He reportedly added: “We kind of reached critical mass.”Harley-Davidson’s shares are up 5% since Starbuck started his campaign in July, according to the outlet.Earlier this year, a Washington Post-Ipsos poll found 61% of adults think DEI programs in the workplace are “a good thing”. But another survey from Bentley University and Gallop found that fewer than four in 10 US adults (38%) believe businesses should take public stances, a decline of 10% since 2022.Harley-Davidson became a focus of Trump’s attention in 2018 after it responded to his administration’s tariffs by moving some production overseas. The former president subsequently encouraged people to boycott the company.The company has also grappled with falling demand from younger buyers for its old-school touring bikes – or “hogs” – according to one analyst who has said “an experience for them is not about hitting the open road”.Harley-Davidson’s decision to drop DEI training received pushback on Tuesday from Eric Bloem, the Human Rights Campaign president, who criticized the company’s decision as “impulsive”.“With nearly 30% of gen Z identifying as LGBTQ+ and the community wielding $1.4tn in spending power, retreating from these principles undermines both consumer trust and employee success,” Bloem said in a statement.There had been a national shift in favor of DEI initiatives after the 2020 murder of George Floyd, who was Black, by a white police officer in Minneapolis. More

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      Can Kamala Harris win over disenchanted Latino voters?

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      The abrupt substitution of Kamala Harris for Joe Biden as the Democratic party’s presidential nominee has energized two of the party’s bedrock bases of support – pro-choice women and African Americans – along with millions of young voters who felt dismay at the Hobson’s choice posed by two old white guys in the presidential contest.But the country’s estimated 36 million eligible Latino voters could be another story.Their importance in presidential races has been steadily growing over the past 50 years, and Latinos are projected to represent nearly 15% of eligible voters nationwide by November.Historically, Latinos have ranked among the Democratic party’s most reliable sources of votes, in about the same league as Black and Jewish voters. But the party’s once commanding advantage has been shrinking. Hillary Clinton trounced Donald Trump among Latinos nationwide in 2016 by a factor of 81% to 16%, yet four years later the former president upped his share to one out of every four votes cast by Latinos.A slew of prominent Latino politicians and trade unionists have endorsed the vice-president since the president’s withdrawal from the race on 21 July. They include some progressive Democrats who had condemned the terse message Harris had for would-be Latin American immigrants to the United States during a 2021 press conference in Guatemala City: “Do not come.”But it remains unclear whether Latino voters overall will give Harris a big boost in her bid to defeat Trump. For starters, they are diverse in national origin as well as the circumstances and histories of their communities’ immigration.Most southern California Chicanos reflect their state’s liberal tendencies and have little in common ideologically with the majority of Miami’s right-leaning Cuban Americans. Phoenix-based pollster Mike Noble notes that Latino voters whose roots go back to Colombia, Venezuela and other South American countries have been gravitating towards the Republican party over the past four years.Latinos are not yet digging deep into their pockets to support Harris. Two Zoom fundraising calls with Black women and men held on consecutive nights right after Biden bowed out brought in a total of $2.8m. Similar Zoom calls with Latinas and Latinos for Kamala on 24 and 31 July, respectively, posted a combined net haul of $188,000.Axios Latino has been tracking US Latinos’ views of Harris in conjunction with Noticias Telemundo and the Ipsos market research and public opinion firm since the first year of the Biden administration. By the end of 2021, Axios Latino found that 48% of Latinos had a favorable opinion of Harris – but that figure had slumped to 39% by last March. A different survey of Latinos in 10 states found that sentiment persisted in Arizona and Nevada even days after Biden’s fateful debate performance in late June.But a more recent survey of 800 Latino voters living in seven swing states brought Harris and the Democrats some very welcome news. Carried out by the pollster Gary Segura on behalf of the Washington-based Somos Political Action Committee in the immediate aftermath of Biden’s bombshell announcement, the survey gave Harris an impressive 18-percentage-point lead over Trump and surprisingly high favorability ratings among Latino voters in Arizona and Nevada, which have the highest percentage of eligible Latino voters among those swing states.In a separate poll by Equis Research released Wednesday, Harris is still a few points short of Biden’s support from Latino voters in the 2020 election, but is still leading Trump by 19 points among registered Latino voters in the seven most competitive states.Harris and her newly selected running mate, Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota, addressed rallies in Phoenix and Las Vegas late last week, and a new 30-second TV spot aimed at Latino voters has started airing in both English and Spanish.“Throughout her career, she’s always worked to earn the support of Latino voters and has made core issues like healthcare, childcare and fighting gun violence her focus,” said the campaign’s Hispanic media director, Maca Casado. “Vice-President Harris’s campaign knows Latinos’ political power, and we won’t take their votes for granted.”In Harris’s performance at the polls among Latinos in her native California, she garnered a majority of the Latino vote in both of her successful campaigns for the office of state attorney general, in 2010 and 2014.But Latinos are not expected to play a decisive role in the Golden state or any of the other three states where they are most numerous. Both California and New York are widely considered to be a lock for Democrats, and the same is true of Texas and Florida for Republicans.That leaves Arizona and Nevada, and the outlook for Democrats remains cloudy.CNN exit polling in November 2020 showed Biden beating Trump handily among Arizona Latino voters by a 27-percentage-point margin, thanks in part to folks like Matthew Sotelo. The 37-year-old leader of a non-profit community organization in Phoenix is a registered Democrat who thinks that Biden has done a “solid” job as president. But Sotelo senses a welcome change in the political climate since Harris became the party’s standard bearer.“The energy is different, and despite what the polls say about Harris being in a dead heat with Trump, the momentum is swinging to her side,” says the Arizona-born Mexican American.During Harris’s abortive run for the presidency in 2019, Sotelo did have some reservations about her track record as a prosecutor in San Francisco who sought prison terms for people arrested for possession of small amounts of controlled substances. But he sees her as an open-minded politician.“Do I think she has done a perfect job [on the border]? Absolutely not,” says Sotelo. “But I understand there has been an opportunity for Harris to grow as a leader, and she’ll continue to learn and grow.”One seasoned Latino pollster warns that Republicans have made major inroads in Arizona. “The Democrats have been losing ground there, and a lot of it has to do with the border,” says Eduardo Gamarra, a Florida International University professor of political science who oversaw last month’s poll of Latino voters in 10 states.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionFelix Garcia concurs. Born in the Mexican state of Sonora and a resident of Phoenix since 2000, the 42-year-old business consultant has spent his entire life on either side of the US-Mexican border.“We have so many people from different countries on the border every day, and Kamala has never tried to fix the situation on the border,” says the registered Republican, who describes himself as a moderate in the mold of the late Arizona senator John McCain.Garcia’s issues with Harris do not end with immigration. “We have so many problems with the Biden administration – inflation, Ukraine, Russia, Israel – and she is part of this administration,” he says.During a campaign rally in Arizona last Friday, Harris drew attention to the years she served as California’s attorney general. “I went after the transnational gangs, the drug cartels and human traffickers,” she declared. “I prosecuted them in case after case, and I won.”Mike Noble, a former consultant and manager of Republican legislative campaigns in Arizona, found that many Latino voters in Arizona and Nevada are focused on pocketbook issues like inflation and housing affordability. Those anxieties are not likely to favor Harris.“She’s done a little better in places like the midwest and Pennsylvania, but in the sun belt, Harris is basically starting off in the same position as Biden was,” he says.The ascent of Harris has left David Navarro unmoved. The 27-year-old native of Las Vegas is a registered Democrat who supported Bernie Sanders’ presidential bids in 2016 and 2020 and voted for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 general election. But he says he is done with both major political parties and will vote for Green party presidential candidate Jill Stein in the fall.“I don’t support their views or any of their policies towards Israel and Gaza, and neither the Democrats nor the Republicans are doing anything to address the causes of inflation, which are corporations and their price increases,” says the systems engineer whose father immigrated from El Salvador. “They don’t value us as Americans, and I don’t want a presidential candidate who is run by the major donors who are billionaires and the corporations.”A scholar from the University of Nevada at Las Vegas (UNLV) cautions that many Latinos in that state, like millions of Americans across the country regardless of their race or ethnicity, do not know all that much about Harris at this juncture beyond her name and current job title.“People know Biden and Trump, but when it comes to Harris, she has a lot more opportunity to shape the narrative, introduce herself and recalibrate things,” says Rebecca Gill, UNLV associate professor of political science. “She has the potential to move her numbers more than Trump or Biden.”In a volatile election cycle already punctuated by an assassination attempt, a debate debacle of historic dimensions, and the nomination of the first Black female presidential candidate of a major political party, Latino voters could spring surprises of their own even in swing states with relatively small Latino populations.“The Hispanic vote is large enough in virtually every state in the US that it could make the difference between winning and losing, including Pennsylvania and Georgia,” notes Fernand Amandi, a Miami-based Democratic pollster who specializes in tracking voting trends in the Latino community.“It’s the very reason why so many people are hyper-focused on the Hispanic vote.” More

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      Black US voters’ economic priorities revealed in new advocacy agenda

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      Black Americans strongly support initiatives that would increase the minimum wage to $17, make affordable housing more accessible and create an equitable tax system, according to Black to the Future Action Fund, a political advocacy thinktank. On Thursday, the group released a 55-page economic agenda based on its 2023 survey of 211,219 Black people across all 50 states. The organization hopes that the report will serve as a roadmap for elected officials to address policy holes, and for advocates to generate campaigns that hold politicians accountable.“We have to start imagining what it is that we want and not be so afraid to break out of what is,” said Alicia Garza, founder and former principal of Black to the Future Action Fund, at a Thursday symposium in Atlanta.The agenda suggests a range of policy shifts around worker protections, housing, healthcare, childcare, higher education and taxes, along with examples of successful models already implemented by some state governments and municipalities. “Economic insecurity experienced by Black communities cannot be resolved solely by individual actions like working more hours, getting a college degree or saving money to buy a home,” the agenda’s authors wrote. “These issues are systemic, and government intervention is required to eliminate these inequities and improve outcomes for our people.”Along with increasing the minimum wage to $17, the authors also recommended that elected officials pass labor protections for domestic workers, many of whom are Black women. The expansion of paid family and medical leave laws would help workers care for their household. And on the topic of affordable housing, the thinktank recommended laws that ensure rent payments are incorporated into credit scores so that renters have greater access to obtaining home mortgages.Another suggestion for affordable housing included the development of shared equity programs, which use public or private investments to build or buy homes that are then sold at a reduced rate to low-to-moderate income homebuyers. There are currently 250,000 shared equity models mainly in New York City, according to the agenda. Christopher Towler, a political science associate professor at Sacramento State University and director of the Black Voter Project, called the programs “a really good model to try and get people into the housing market for there to be more first-time homebuyers”.The origins of the US’s persistent racial wealth can be traced back to the transatlantic slave trade, when enslaved Black people were barred from accessing capital generated by their forced labor. During the Reconstruction period after the civil war, then president Andrew Johnson rescinded the 40 acres (16 hectares) of land promised to formerly enslaved Black people.When Black communities did secure economic freedom, they were sometimes violently attacked by angry white mobs, including during the 1921 Tulsa race massacre, where an estimated 300 people were killed. Additionally, banks often denied home loans to Black Americans from the early 20th century until the passage of the 1964 Civil Rights Act that outlawed housing discrimination.View image in fullscreen“The failures of Reconstruction have yet to be made up,” said Towler. “And a large part of that is the continued residential segregation and how Black Americans have been locked out, not only of the housing market, but of the resources, the wealth, the opportunity that comes along with where you live and your access to community.”The legacy of systemic inequality has a continued impact on Black workers today, who earn less than US workers overall, according to 2022 Bureau of Labor Statistics data cited by Pew Research Center. The median weekly earnings of Black full-time wage and salary workers is $878, compared to $1,059 for all US workers, according to Pew.During Thursday’s symposium, the actor and activist Kendrick Sampson, the singer and songwriter Trae Crockett, and the digital storyteller Conscious Lee spoke with Garza about the need for Black communities to brainstorm needed solutions and to band together to effect political change.“When it comes to healthcare,” said Lee, “a lot of us … have internalized the Black inferiority when it comes to that industry. So for me, it’s really reimagining what it looks like for my grandma to get affordable insulin.”Black census respondents listed a lack of affordable healthcare as their fourth most immediate economic concern. Expanding Medicaid to the 10 states that have not done so under the Affordable Care Act could help keep rural hospitals open. “The communities most affected when these rural hospitals close often have significant Black populations,” the report stated, “and closure means rural residents must drive 25 or more miles to access medical care.”While Towler lauded the agenda as the first one he’s seen that addresses the concerns of Black communities nationwide, he believes that it will be a “tough sell” to mobilize Black voters. “Any sort of policy promises right now are going to be looked at with some hesitations, simply because the Biden administration’s policy agenda, although very numerous in its accomplishments, is still in some ways misunderstood,” said Towler. “There’s not a lot of knowledge with the common voter about how the policies that Biden passed have actually affected their individual lives.”According to his research, Towler said that people are encouraged to be civically engaged when they’re taught how political institutions uphold the status quo to resist change: “If you even want there to be a possibility of reparations, we have to continue to vote, continue to be active and continue to put in place policy makers and legislators that are working towards that.”At the end of the symposium, organizers asked participants to share the agenda with their network and elected officials. In the eyes of the Black to the Future Action Fund, the electorate is capable of shifting policy through mass mobilization.“We are the power,” Sampson said toward the end of the symposium. “If we all are in alignment and we go in the same direction, now we are more powerful.” More

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      Why Donald Trump won’t make major inroads with Black voters | Musa al-Gharbi

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      Throughout the 2024 cycle, polling has suggested that Republicans are poised to do extraordinarily well with African Americans.Even with Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket, nearly one out of five black voters say they support Donald Trump. Younger Black voters seem especially open to casting ballots for the Republican party.On its face, this seems like a sea change in Americans’ electoral affinities. The last time Republicans put up numbers anywhere near that level with Black voters was in 1976. And given that Black voters currently make up nearly one-quarter of the Democratic base, a scenario where almost 20% of these constituents defected to the other side would be absolutely devastating for the vice-president’s electoral prospects.The good news for Democrats is that, even if the polls have been genuinely capturing overall Black sentiment in the US, they are unlikely to be accurately predicting the final vote distribution in November.To clarify why polls are unlikely to reflect the eventual vote margins for this particular subset of voters, it might be helpful to look at how things typically shake out for third-party candidates.Elections are decided by voters, not poll respondentsDuring the 2016 electoral cycle, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson consistently hovered around 9% of the vote in polling. As the race tightened in the weeks before the election, voters began defecting to one of the top ticket candidates. However, in the week before ballots were cast, he was still polling at more than 6%. Ultimately, he ended up with just over 3%.In the 2020 cycle, Green party candidate Howie Hawkins polled at 2% of the national vote six weeks before the election. He ultimately secured roughly one-quarter of 1% of ballots.In the current cycle, Robert F Kennedy Jr polled above 10% for most of the race and, at his high point, was more than double that. However, as the race has tightened (we’re less than 90 days out), and after Joe Biden dropped out, Kennedy is now polling around 4%. In the end, he’d probably be lucky to get half that many votes in November.In short: despite most Americans consistently expressing support for alternatives to the Democratic and Republican nominees, third-party candidates consistently underperform at the ballot box relative to their polling – even in cycles (like 2016) where unusually high numbers of voters dislike both major party candidates.One of the primary causes of this gap between polling and outcomes is that contests are ultimately decided by who shows up to vote on election day. And Americans who are disgusted with both major-party nominees often find other things to do on a Tuesday afternoon than standing in line at a polling place to cast a ballot for someone who has little prospect of actually winning. And when these voters do show up at the ballot box, it’s often to hold their nose and vote for whomever they perceive to be the lesser of the two major party evils, in order to deny victory to the candidate they least prefer. And so, in the end, few Americans who express support for third-party candidates in polls actually show up to vote for them. The polls may accurately capture Americans’ preferences for third-party candidates, but they don’t predict well voting behavior with respect to those candidates.A similar tale holds for Black support of Republicans.Although polls this cycle have consistently found that nearly one in five Black Americans are open to voting for Trump, they also show that most Black voters could be easily swayed to vote for someone other than who they’re leaning towards at the moment, most Black voters have much weaker commitments to their current candidate of choice than other Americans, and roughly a third say they will probably not vote at all. This pattern in responses is also reflected in historical voting behavior: Black voters are more likely than most other Americans to sit elections out.Across the board, the Americans who are most likely to show up on election day – highly-educated, relatively affluent, urban and suburban voters – now tend to favor Democrats, even as lower-propensity voters (younger, working class and low-income, and/or less educated Americans, especially those who live in small towns and rural areas) have been shifting to the right.Historically, the dynamic has gone the other way. Democrats benefitted from high turnout and sought to expand access and participation while Republicans aggressively sought to suppress turnout by increasing voting restrictions, purging voter rolls, gerrymandering districts and otherwise undermining the Voting Rights Act. However, as the Democratic party was reoriented around knowledge economy professionals, many other constituencies swung in the other direction. And because there are far more “normie” voters than there are symbolic capitalists, high turnout increasingly came to favor Republicans instead.This matters because Republicans’ polling gains among African Americans are concentrated most heavily among lower-propensity voting blocs (such as younger and less affluent or educated constituents) and, as a consequence, the lower overall electoral turnout is, the more we should expect to see Republicans underperform among black voters relative to the polls.In 2020, the GOP got a bigger share of the black vote than in previous cycles, but this was in part because of record turnout among non-white voters (whereas Democrats overperformed in subsequent special elections that had much lower overall turnout). Unfortunately for Trump, there are signs that African American turnout this cycle may be significantly lower among lower-propensity voters. Consequently, the vote share Republicans ultimately receive in 2024 among black voters may end up being significantly lower than the polling suggests.The bad news for Democrats is that Trump doesn’t necessarily need to get around 20% of the black vote to freeze Kamala out of the White House. If he’s to even marginally exceed his numbers from last cycle, Democrats would be left with a highly precarious path to victory unless they can make up the losses with other constituents in swing states.Both parties have been alienating core constituenciesSince 2010, Democrats had been consistently losing vote share among African Americans in every midterm and general election.And it wasn’t just African American voters who were leaving, but also Hispanic Americans, religious minorities, and less affluent or educated voters. The very populations that Democrats often fancy themselves as representatives of and advocates for. The very constituents that were supposed to ensure Democrats an indefinite electoral majority.These defections were highly consequential: they contributed to enormous congressional wipeouts from 2010 to 2014 and cost Democrats the White House in 2016 (as Black voter attrition helped flip states including Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Ohio, even as Hispanic alienation helped tilt Arizona, Texas and Florida toward the Republicans).Many assumed that with Trump in the White House, minority voters would come flocking back to the Democratic party. Instead, the GOP held their margins with non-white voters in the 2018 midterms. Democratic gains in that election were near-exclusively due to shifts among highly-educated, relatively affluent, urban and suburban white people.In 2020, Black voters in states such as South Carolina helped save Biden’s floundering primary election campaign. In response, the president vowed to appoint a Black woman as his running mate should he win the Democratic nomination. Upon securing the vote, he ultimately settled on Harris.This choice was striking because Harris was not popular with Black voters during the primary. She typically trailed behind not just Biden, but also Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and sometimes other competitors as well – consistently polling about 5% with African Americans.That general sentiment seems to have continued through to the general election. Although Harris’s nomination was historic in virtue of her being potentially the first Black, female and/or Asian vice-president, her appearance on the ticket generated little enthusiasm among any of these voter blocs. Democrats ultimately got a smaller share of the black vote and the Asian vote in 2020 as compared with 2016 (across gender lines). Democrats were able to nonetheless carve out a narrow electoral college win primarily because white men (especially self-identified “moderates” and “independents”) shifted away from Donald Trump in 2020.These patterns continued through the 2022 midterm elections: non-white people, including non-white women, shifted much further towards the GOP than white people (especially white men). And it seems likely that Democrats will see further attrition in 2024, even if it’s less than current polling suggests.Contrary to optimistic narratives that circulated as Obama was ushered into office, it’s actually quite difficult to hold together a coalition that is centered around knowledge economy professionals but attractive to less advantaged Americans as well.With respect to the Democratic party’s current core constituency, although knowledge economy professionals have been straying from the Democrats since the election of Biden, they seem poised to turn out in force for Harris. The record-breaking “White Women: Answer the Call” and “White Dudes for Harris” online events seem like a strong indicator – as does the huge outpouring of support from Wall Street, Silicon Valley and big law. The symbolic professions seem to be 100% coconut-pilled.Black people, on the other hand, seem much less enthusiastic. And should Harris lean heavily into her race or gender in an attempt to rally support – although this might be appealing to (disproportionately white) knowledge economy professionals – it would likely alienate non-white “normie” voters even more (who tend to prefer messages that are less identitarian and more focused on bread and butter issues).The big question for 2024 is whether or not Trump will continue to alienate white people at an equal or greater clip as Democrats are driving away voters of color. The answer will likely determine control of the White House.

      Musa al-Gharbi is a sociologist in the School of Communication and Journalism at Stony Brook University. His book, We Have Never Been Woke: The Cultural Contradictions of a New Elite, is forthcoming with Princeton University Press. He is a Guardian US columnist. More