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    Washington, DC, Forecast Shows Thunderstorms on Saturday

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    The weather could affect the military parade. Here’s the latest forecast.There is a significant chance of rain across the Washington, D.C., area on Saturday, the National Weather Service said, and thunderstorms late in the afternoon or evening could coincide with events near the National Mall to mark the U.S. Army’s 250th birthday.Thunderstorms can bring a variety of threats, including hail, lightning and damaging winds. Jeremy Geiger, a meteorologist at the Weather Service office that covers Baltimore and Washington, said the agency predicted up to an 80 percent chance of rain during the afternoon and evening.“I think it’s going to rain based on everything I’m seeing, but there is a small chance that it just misses parts of the District,” Mr. Geiger said on Saturday morning.Conditions are expected to be cloudy and humid for much of the day, with a high temperature of about 83 degrees Fahrenheit.Skies were cloudy on Saturday morning but conditions were dry. Scattered thunderstorms will come from northern Maryland as the day progresses, and it’s difficult to predict their exact trajectory and where the heaviest impact will be, Mr. Geiger said. “It could be anywhere within a 50-mile area from just south of D.C. up to Baltimore,” he said.Rainfall amounts are most likely to range from a half inch to 1.5 inches, but Mr. Geiger said there was a “reasonable worst-case scenario” of two to four inches, possibly even up to six inches, if the capital falls within the bull’s-eye of the heaviest thunderstorms.

    Forecast risk of severe storms for Saturday

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      Severe Weather Expected Across Much of the U.S. on Saturday

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      Clusters of thunderstorms could kick up damaging winds in northern Mississippi and northern Alabama on Saturday.After a run of severe weather this week, another day of thunderstorm activity was on tap for the Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast and the Southern Plains on Saturday, and the severe weather was expected to persist through the weekend, forecasters said.On Saturday, the threat will be focused over the Southeast, with the highest risk over northern Mississippi and northern Alabama, where clusters of thunderstorms could kick up powerful, damaging winds.When these clusters of thunderstorms become organized, they can “create their own environment and they become more powerful than a typical thunderstorm,” said Scott Kleebauer, a meteorologist with the Weather Prediction Center.There will also be a low threat of tornadoes on Saturday, “but the main threat will be wind and that will be across the northern half of Alabama and Mississippi,” he said.On Sunday, the highest area of risk shifts into the southern Plains, especially the Texas Panhandle into western-north Texas and southwest Oklahoma, where thunderstorms could deliver strong winds and large hail, with a moderate risk for tornadoes. Lubbock and Amarillo in Texas and Lawton, Okla., all fall within areas with an enhanced risk of thunderstorm activity.“I would say the best bet for tornadoes on Sunday would be the Texas Panhandle,” Mr. Kleebauer said. More

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      Rare Early June Rainfall Could Reach Phoenix

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      Measurable rainfall in the first week of June has only been recorded 21 times since 1896, according to weather records. The rain would be welcome after a winter of below-normal precipitation.A storm spinning off the coast of Baja California in Mexico on Saturday was poised to dive into the Southwest United States and drag with it remnants of post-tropical storm Alvin.This system, which is uncommonly wet for this time of year, will bring a rare chance for thunderstorms and brief heavy downpours to the region, especially to southeast California, southwest New Mexico and southern Arizona, including Phoenix, Sunday into Monday.The rain would be much welcome in an area with widespread drought conditions after a winter of below-normal precipitation.“For this time of year this is quite unusual,” said Mark O’Malley, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Phoenix.The Weather Service’s official gauge for the Phoenix area is at Sky Harbor International Airport. It has recorded measurable rainfall in the first week of June on 21 occasions, with records going back to 1896.“Normal rainfall is zero,” Mr. O’Malley said of the first week in June.There’s a 75 percent chance the airport will record rain on Sunday afternoon or evening, with rainfall chances continuing into Monday.A thunderstorm or two could move over the airport and bring half an inch of rain, or the downpour could hit 10 miles west of the airport, and there would hardly be any rain.This unusual weather setup will bring a chance for rain and thunderstorms to most of the Southwest on Sunday into Monday, including southeastern California, southern Nevada, all of Arizona, western New Mexico, the Wasatch Mountains in Utah and portions of the Colorado Rocky Mountains.“This is a fairly large swath of moisture, so I’d actually say, there’s not just a chance of rain, but rain is likely,” said Peter Mullinax, a meteorologist with the Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center.The chances are highest across southern Arizona, southwest New Mexico and southeast California, and the Weather Prediction Center has put this area under a marginal risk — level 1 out of 4 — for excessive rainfall that could lead to flash flooding on Sunday. A slice of Southern Arizona is at a higher slight risk, level 2 out of 4.Mr. O’Malley said that minor flooding on roadways in the greater Phoenix area is possible.Storms occasionally pass over the Southwest in late spring but they’re usually dry. Rain is more common during the monsoon season that starts June 15 and lasts into September.“These storms come through and you’d never know, other than a little wind,” Mr. O’Malley said. “With this storm, you have that moisture that’s being pulled in from Alvin — that’s the big difference.”Mr. Mullinax said there’s also a strong southerly wind component that’s escorting the tropical moisture northward into the Southwest.Alvin formed over the Pacific Ocean off the coast of west Mexico on Thursday, sending pounding surf to west-central Mexico and southern Baja California. The system has since dissipated and was a post-tropical cyclone over the North Pacific Ocean on Saturday. More

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      Memorial Day Storms Cause Delays for Holiday Travelers

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      Thunderstorms in the south and central United States caused flight delays during Memorial Day weekend, the beginning of the summer travel season.Hundreds of thousands of people traveling in parts of the Southeast and central United States faced delays and uncertainty on Monday because of severe thunderstorms that caused damaging winds and heavy rains during the busy Memorial Day weekend.There were more than 5,000 delayed flights to, from and within the United States on Monday, according to FlightAware, a company that tracks flight information. The airports most affected were in Texas and Colorado.Dallas Fort Worth International Airport had warned that it was expecting a busy period of travel, estimating that about 1.4 million passengers would pass through the airport from May 22 through May 27. More than 1,000 flights to and from the airport were delayed on Monday.Another 600 flights were delayed in Houston, flying to and from George Bush Intercontinental Airport.Denver International Airport, where nearly 1,000 flights were delayed on Sunday, said it expected 443,000 passengers to travel through the airport during the holiday weekend. On Monday, nearly 1,000 flights were delayed to and from the airport.The Denver airport said in a statement that it had received a report that a flight was struck by lightning on its descent on Sunday. The flight arrived safely and no injuries were reported, the airport said. Southwest Airlines operated the flight, which departed from Tampa, and said the plane had been taken out of service for inspection. The storms on Monday could result in large hail, damaging winds and flash floods in parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi River Valley, forecasters said.The potential for tornadoes loomed in some areas, and tornado warnings were issued on Monday in parts of Texas, Alabama and Mississippi. In parts of east-central New Mexico and western Oklahoma, there was a slight risk of hail and strong winds.In Texas and Mississippi, more than 29,000 customers in each state were without power on Monday night, according to PowerOutage.us. In Louisiana, more than 14,000 customers were without power.More storm activity was expected on Tuesday.For the five days that started on May 22 and will end on Tuesday, AAA forecast that a record 45.1 million people in the United States would travel at least 50 miles from home. AAA said it expected 3.61 million people to travel by plane and 39.4 million people to travel by car. More

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      Severe Storms Threaten Parts of Oklahoma and Texas

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      There was an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms in parts of Texas and Oklahoma on Sunday, forecasters said. They warned of hail of up to three inches in diameter and of winds up to 80 miles per hour.Severe thunderstorms threatened parts of the Southern Plains on Sunday, where damaging winds, hail larger than baseballs and a few tornadoes were expected, forecasters warned.The storms were expected to develop starting by the middle of Sunday afternoon. Forecasters expressed the greatest concern for parts of central and northeastern Texas into central and southwestern Oklahoma.The Storm Prediction Center issued a level 3 out of 5 risk — or an enhanced risk — for severe weather for these areas on Sunday, warning of the possibility of hail of up to three inches in diameter and winds up to 80 miles per hour.Parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and the Deep South were also expected to face rounds of severe weather, including strong damaging winds and hail, as the storms move east into Sunday night.A couple of tornadoes were also possible on Sunday, especially for northeast Texas into southwest Oklahoma.The Weather Prediction Center issued a level 3 out of 4 risk for flash flooding through Monday, focused on central Oklahoma into northwestern Arkansas.The potential for thunderstorms was expected to continue on Monday, with large hail and damaging winds still the primary concerns. The highest risk will be across north and central Texas and into parts of Arkansas, Louisiana and Texas.Large hail, some possibly bigger than golf balls, and damaging winds will be likely over central and western Texas.Farther east, Alabama, Mississippi and parts of Louisiana may also experience scattered strong storms later on Monday afternoon, though the storm threat is expected to be lower in these regions.John Pike, a forecaster at the Weather Service office in Norman, Okla., on Saturday called the weather “quite typical” for the lower Great Plains where spring thunderstorm activity usually peaks in May. More

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      An Atmospheric River Brings Flooding Risks to the Mid-Atlantic

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      Forecasters warned of flash flooding through midweek, including areas of North Carolina still battered by Hurricane Helene.A slow-moving storm system that’s been called an atmospheric river is poised to deliver bouts of heavy rain across the Mid-Atlantic over the next few days, increasing the risk of flash floods.Forecasters expressed concern for areas where the ground is especially vulnerable in North Carolina. David Roth, a meteorologist at the Weather Prediction Center, said the state has been particularly at risk since Hurricane Helene.“Helene just made everything worse,” he said. “There were some landslides in western North Carolina from it. It takes a while to recover from a tropical cyclone. So their ground is more sensitive.”Mr. Roth said North Carolina’s complex terrain was another factor of concern.“They have a lot of up and down variation,” he said. “Even without Helene, almost every time it rains moderately, to have the mountains, basically you get these small waterfalls.”The Weather Prediction Center has issued a Level 2 out of 4 risk for excessive rainfall, potentially leading to flash flooding across eastern North Carolina, eastern Virginia, Maryland, eastern West Virginia and extending into central and southern Pennsylvania through Wednesday.Flood watches have been issued across these areas through late Tuesday.Rainfall totals were expected to range between one and three inches, and rain may fall at a rate of one to two inches an hour. Forecasters anticipated the intense rain to develop by late Tuesday morning, fueled by daytime warming.The Weather Prediction Center also noted that the hills and mountains stretching from southern Pennsylvania through Virginia could receive additional rainfall because of the way the air is being pushed up the slopes. Recent rainfall has saturated the ground in this region, further elevating the risk of flash flooding.The storm has brought repeated rounds of heavy rain to the Southeast since last week. Its slow-moving nature and a continuous feed of moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic are the main risk factors for flash floods.Forecasters have called this an atmospheric river, a term more commonly associated with the steady streams of moisture that soak the West Coast but that also describes patterns responsible for rain in the East.“You can call any warm conveyor belt circulation around a nontropical low an atmospheric river,” said Mr. Roth, adding that such systems are especially concerning when they stall.“This at least will show some progression,” he said. “It won’t be as bad as some of the multiday heavy rain events that the mountains of California can sometimes get.”The system is expected to reach the Great Lakes by Wednesday, when thunderstorms will most likely become more scattered and less intense. However, a lower-level risk for flash flooding, 1 out of 4, was expected across parts of the Carolinas and into southern Pennsylvania through Thursday. More

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      Damaging Winds and Flash Floods Threaten Central and Eastern U.S. Tuesday

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      Forecasters warned of damaging winds, hailstones bigger than baseballs and flash floods in parts of an area stretching from Texas to upstate New York.Forecasters are warning of large hail, damaging winds and flash flooding in areas from Texas to upstate New York, as a dangerous storm system continues to tear across central and eastern parts of the United States.The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma, as well as stretches of the Ohio Valley, western Pennsylvania and upstate New York, under an “enhanced” risk of severe weather on Tuesday, the third level of its five-level classification system.Forecasters warned that southern areas faced the threat of hail and isolated tornadoes, while the Northern United States, including the Great Lakes, was at risk of damaging winds.The Storm Prediction Center warned that hailstones larger than baseballs could fall in northwest Texas on Tuesday, accompanied by wind gusts of up to 75 miles per hour. The threat of severe weather was expected to grow stronger through the day.Tornadoes were also possible in parts of Texas and Oklahoma, the Ohio Valley and upstate New York. But Matt Mosier, a lead forecaster at the Storm Prediction Center, said that they were not expected to be the main hazard.Tuesday’s severe weather threats follow a tense Monday in the Upper Midwest, where areas of Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin had been placed under a higher risk of tornadoes, at the fourth level in the Weather Service’s classification system. In the end, just two were reported in Minnesota and Wisconsin, a quieter outcome that forecasters attributed to thunderstorms remaining along the cold front associated with the storm system.“When that occurs, it makes it less likely to produce a tornado and more likely to produce hail and damaging winds,” Mr. Mosier said.Still, areas of Oklahoma saw teacup-sized hail, while wind gusts of as high as 68 m.p.h. were recorded in Kansas.Another concern on Tuesday is rain: Northeast Texas, central Oklahoma and western Arkansas were under moderate risk of flash flooding through Thursday, with the Weather Service warning of “locally catastrophic flooding” in parts of southwest Oklahoma as rain falls on already recently soaked grounds.“When you get a stalled cold front like that and there’s a lot of moisture around, it’s kind of a recipe for numerous rounds of rain and storms,” Mr. Mosier said.The storm is expected to move eastward by the weekend, with high pressure bringing a period of calmer weather. But any respite may be short-lived, as another storm system is expected to develop over the western United States as soon as Saturday.“It’s just that time of year,” Mr. Mosier said. “We don’t really go a very long period of time without some sort of system coming through again.” More

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      Heavy Rains Cause Flooding in New Orleans

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      Lingering storms drenched the city with over a month’s worth of rain, swamping roads and stranding drivers.Video filmed on April 21 shows motorists driving through a flooded street in Gretna, Louisiana.A series of severe thunderstorms brought widespread flooding to New Orleans on Monday, overwhelming roads and prompting flash flood warnings. Drivers struggled as heavy rain poured across the city for hours, particularly in eastern areas.“It’s an absolute mess out there across portions of Gretna, New Orleans, the Lower 9th and Arabi,” the National Weather Service in New Orleans said on X, referencing areas in and around the city. “Do not drive around. It’s near impossible to see where some roads end and canals begin.”The storms were fueled by a persistent flow of warm, moisture-laden air from the Gulf of Mexico interacting with a front across the Southeast. This setup resulted in an unstable atmosphere that allowed storms to linger over the city and pound it with heavy rain.“Thunderstorms sat over New Orleans for a few hours on Monday afternoon,” said Marc Chenard, a meteorologist with the Weather Prediction Center. “The east side of the downtown seemed to get hit the hardest.”Rain gauges recorded between four and seven inches of rain, with the highest totals on the east side. The average rainfall in New Orleans for the month of April is 5.22 inches.“Had it occurred 20 miles farther south or east or west, it likely wouldn’t have had the same amount of impact,” Mr. Chenard said. “The storms just persisted long enough, for a couple of hours, to get some of those high totals.”Flash flooding remains a concern in the coming days in other parts of the United States, and the Weather Prediction Center said parts of the South and the Midwest were under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall through Friday. Up to two inches of rainfall is expected across the Southeast.New Orleans can expect drier weather for the weekend.“Rain chances will gradually decrease through the remainder of the week, with a dry forecast for the weekend,” the New Orleans office of the Weather Service said. More

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      Long-Running Storm Drenches Central U.S. but Starts to Shift East

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      The heaviest rains so far this weekend have hit Arkansas, Missouri and Kentucky. More rain is expected on Sunday, but the risk of flooding will be less severe.The huge storm system that has caused widespread damage across the central United States is bringing more heavy rain and high winds on Sunday, continuing its dayslong stretch of soaking communities from Texas to Ohio as it begins to move east.The heaviest rains over the weekend so far have fallen in Arkansas, Missouri and Kentucky, and rising water levels and flooding have prompted water rescues, road closures and evacuation orders. The storm has killed at least 16 people, including a 5-year-old boy in Arkansas, a 9-year-old boy in Kentucky and a firefighter in Missouri, since it began on Wednesday.

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      Search for a place to see the observed precipitation.

      Source: National Weather Service
      Notes:

       Values are in inches of water or the equivalent amount of melted snow and ice.
      By Bea Malsky and Martín González Gómez

      The threat of storms and rainfall will shift eastward but diminish on Sunday, which will be a welcome reprieve for residents in the South and the Midwest. In some areas — including northern Arkansas and southern Missouri — rivers are expected to crest on Sunday, and possibly as late as Wednesday, but the risk of dangerous flooding will not be as high as it was on Friday and Saturday.While the worst of the rain is over in northern Kentucky, parts of the region are still expected to receive up to five inches of rain before the long stretch of bad weather finally clears, according to the National Weather Service. “Moderate to major” flooding was forecast on many of the region’s rivers.“Given the fact that everything is so saturated, everything is just running right off the ground and into area creeks and streams,” said Nate McGinnis, a meteorologist with the agency in Wilmington, Ohio.

      Forecast risk of severe storms for Sunday

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