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      Your Wednesday Briefing: A Downed U.S. Drone

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      Also, U.S. markets seem to stabilize and Xi Jinping tightens his control over China’s economy.The U.S. aircraft was an MQ-9 surveillance drone.Fabrizio Villa/Getty ImagesA downed droneA Russian fighter jet struck a U.S. surveillance drone over the Black Sea, U.S. officials said, hitting its propeller and causing its loss in international waters. Russia denied that there had been a collision, saying the drone’s own maneuvers caused it to crash.If a collision is confirmed, it would be the first known physical contact between the two nations’ militaries as a result of the war in Ukraine.U.S. officials said the drone’s operators brought the craft down in the Black Sea after the collision, which the U.S. military said was the result of “reckless” actions by Russian pilots. The U.S. aircraft was conducting “routine operations in international airspace,” an Air Force general said.A White House spokesman said that there had been similar “intercepts” by Russian aircraft in recent weeks, calling them “not an uncommon occurrence,” but that this was the first to result “in the splashing of one of our drones.” He called the behavior of the Russians “unsafe and unprofessional.” Context: Russia’s invasion has turned the Black Sea, which is dominated by the Russian Navy, into a battle zone. Ukraine has attacked Russian naval vessels there, most notably in April, when a Ukrainian missile sank the Moskva, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet.Response: The State Department summoned Russia’s ambassador in Washington to receive the U.S.’s formal objection over the drone downing.Other updates:Russia pounded towns in the southern Kherson region, Ukrainian officials said, as Ukraine prepared for a counteroffensive.Russia said it would extend a deal allowing Ukraine to export grain, but only for 60 days rather than the 120 sought by Ukraine.Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner private military company, said his force would recede after the battle for Bakhmut. The shift coincides with speculation about Prigozhin’s political ambitions.Stocks jumped a day after the turmoil.Justin Lane/EPA, via ShutterstockU.S. economy seems to stabilizeMarkets closed up yesterday, after investors seemed to shrug off the recent collapse of two midsize banks and the threat of a crisis appeared to wane. Fresh inflation data, largely in line with expectations, also added to the sense of relief.Stocks: The S&P 500 jumped 1.7 percent yesterday. Midsize banking stocks, which had plummeted on Monday, rebounded.Banks: The Justice Department opened an investigation into the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, my colleagues report.Inflation: It eased to 6 percent on an annual basis, which matched an expected slowdown. But in February inflation rose over the prior month.Now, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve.Some of the inflation details were worrying, including the costs of housing and other goods and services. Generally, that would indicate that the Fed would keep raising rates in hopes of cooling down the economy.But higher interest rates raise costs for companies, and were at the root of the banking stress. Fewer or smaller rate increases could help stocks to rebound after the deep uncertainty set off by the banking crisis.In other business news: Meta will lay off another 10,000 people, roughly 13 percent of its workforce.Xi Jinping was elected to a third term as China’s president on Friday.Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesXi reins in the economyXi Jinping is dealing with China’s economic problems the same way that he has approached issues for most of his decade in power: by getting the Communist Party more involved.At the annual gathering of China’s national legislature, which ended Monday, Xi introduced a series of sweeping changes to the regulatory framework that would allow the party to assert more direct control over financial policy and bank regulation.China’s economy, which is growing near its slowest pace in decades, is teetering from a real estate sector in crisis. Xi needs bankers to comply with his vision and allocate capital in the ways that China wants its money spent, without jeopardizing the financial system.Heads are already starting to roll. Last month, Tian Huiyu, the former head of one of China’s biggest commercial lenders, was charged with abuse of power and insider trading. And Bao Fan, a prominent investment banker, vanished.Challenges: The financial sector is struggling to respond to the shaky balance sheets of local governments — overrun with debt after paying for “zero Covid” policies — and banks that lend to them.Related: China will start issuing visas to foreign tourists again today, Reuters reports.Analysis: On “The Ezra Klein Show,” Dan Wang, an expert on U.S.-China competition, explores how China’s growth trajectory halted.THE LATEST NEWSAround the WorldThe three leaders described the naval partnership as a critical way to confront China. Haiyun Jiang/The New York TimesThe leaders of the U.S., Britain and Australia unveiled plans to develop a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines, part of an effort to counter China.Major protests are expected in France today before both houses of Parliament vote tomorrow on President Emmanuel Macron’s pension reform.The 2026 World Cup will have 48 teams, up from the current 32, and 24 more games.Other Big StoriesCyclone Freddy, a record-breaking storm, killed nearly 200 people in Malawi.A multibillion-dollar oil project led by French and Chinese companies in Uganda and Tanzania could threaten pristine habitats and Lake Victoria, a source of freshwater for 40 million people.In Antakya, a Turkish city hit hard by the earthquake, the damage is so profound that officials estimate that 80 percent of the remaining buildings will need to be demolished.A Morning Read Julio Sosa/The Daily PennsylvanianAmy Wax, a tenured law professor at the University of Pennsylvania, has said publicly that “on average, Blacks have lower cognitive ability than whites” and that the U.S. is “better off with fewer Asians.”The university is now grappling with a conundrum: Is she exercising her right to free speech, or should she be fired?Lives lived: Dr. Jiang Yanyong, who helped expose China’s SARS crisis in 2003, was celebrated as a hero, then punished for denouncing the Tiananmen Square crackdown. He died at 91.Masatoshi Ito introduced the American convenience store 7-Eleven to Japan, starting a retail revolution there. He died at 98.ARTS AND IDEASA new chatbotOpenAI unveiled an update to ChatGPT, its revolutionary chatbot, just four months after the program stunned the tech world with its ability to answer complex questions and mimic human emotions. The update, called GPT-4, ups the ante in the lucrative AI arms race.My colleagues tested GPT-4. It’s more precise, but it has a few of the old quirks.Developments: It can achieve impressive scores on standardized tests like the SAT, summarize complex news articles and wow doctors with its medical advice. It can answer questions about images; for example, if it’s given a photo of the inside of a fridge, it can suggest recipes based on what’s inside. Its jokes are almost funny.Challenges: GPT-4 still makes things up, a problem that researchers call “hallucination.” It can’t really talk about the future.“Though it’s an awfully good test taker,” my colleagues write, GPT-4 “is not on the verge of matching human intelligence.”Society: Chatbots are shifting the way we learn and work. But even the most impressive systems tend to complement, not replace, skilled workers. Morgan Stanley Wealth Management is building a system that will serve information from company documents to financial advisers.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookMelina Hammer for The New York TimesStart brining your homemade corned beef so it’s ready for St. Patrick’s Day this Friday.What to ReadIn “Y/N,” a bored young woman in thrall to a K-pop band buys a one-way ticket to Seoul.What to WatchIn “Punch,” by the New Zealand writer-director Welby Ings, a young boxer befriends a queer outcast and shifts his priorities.RelationshipsHow to make friends as an introvert.Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: Gossip (three letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you next time. — AmeliaP.S. Paul Sonne, who has covered national security for The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal, is our newest Russia correspondent.“The Daily” is on the Silicon Valley Bank collapse.Send us your feedback. You can reach us at briefing@nytimes.com. More

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      This Is Not How Pete Buttigieg Wanted to Visit Ohio

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      Gail Collins: Bret, Democratic strategists are worried about hanging on to support in the working class. The good news, from my perspective, is that it looks like the big problem is economic concerns, not cultural ones.Saying that’s good news because the Biden administration can respond to those worries by pointing to a ton of effort to create jobs and fight inflation.Guessing you may, um, disagree?Bret Stephens: In the immortal words of the “Airplane” sequel: “Just a tad.”The big problem for Democrats is that their economic message — that happy times are here again — isn’t landing in the places where they need to win, particularly factory towns where elections in states like Wisconsin or Ohio are sometimes decided. Inflation is still too high and probably means the Fed will continue to raise interest rates. Unemployment is low in part because so many people have dropped out of the labor force. Years of lax border control creates a perception that cheap immigrant labor will further undercut working-class wages. And a lot of the projects that President Biden’s spending bills are supposed to fund will take years to get off the ground because there’s rarely such a thing as a “shovel-ready” project.Gail: Yeah, gearing up for a big construction effort does take time. But people who’ve suffered with terrible transportation problems for years do know the shovels are coming. Like the bridge project over the Ohio River that Democrats in Cincinnati have joined hands with Mitch McConnell to celebrate.Bret: The other problem for Democrats is that if they aren’t winning the messaging battle when it comes to the economy, they are losing it badly when it comes to cultural issues. You and I often rue the collapse of the moderate wing of the G.O.P. that was occasionally willing to break with right-wing orthodoxies, but Democrats could also do more to embrace candidates who depart from progressive orthodoxies on issues like guns, immigration, school choice, trans issues and so on.Gail: “Depart from progressive orthodoxies” is a nice way of saying “embrace the bad.” I appreciate that it would be strategic for some purple-state Democrats to take moderate positions on guns, immigration, etc. But I’m not gonna be applauding somebody who, for instance, votes against an assault weapon ban.Bret: You’re reminding me of the story, probably apocryphal, of the supporter who told Adlai Stevenson, during one of his presidential runs in the 1950s, that “Every thinking person in America will be voting for you.”“I’m afraid that won’t do,” he supposedly replied. “I need a majority.”Gail: Let’s go back to infrastructure for a minute. Big story about that train wreck in Ohio. Do you agree with me that the whole thing is the fault of Republicans caving in to pressure from the rail industry to loosen regulations?Bret: Er, no. I read recently that there were more than 1,000 train derailments last year, which averages out to more than two a day, and that there’s been a 60 percent decline in railroad safety incidents since 1990. Accidents happen. When they do, they shouldn’t become a partisan issue.Gail: When major accidents happen in an industry that’s both necessarily regulated and greatly lobbied over, it should be a call for investigation.And while we’re on this subject, please let’s talk about our transportation secretary, Pete Buttigieg ….Bret: So, to illustrate my point, I’m not going to raise an accusing finger at him. Not even remotely his fault, even if Republicans are trying hard to pin him with the blame. Although, for someone with presidential aspirations, he didn’t exactly help himself by showing up a day after Donald Trump did.Gail: Sort of embarrassed that while I was trying to ponder rail regulation, my thoughts kept drifting off to Buttigieg the possible presidential candidate.He’s one of the guys we always mention when we talk about who might be nominated if Biden doesn’t go for a second term. But Buttigieg’s performance in Ohio was definitely not the work of a guy who knows how to run for that job.Steve McCurry/Magnum PhotosBret: Switching subjects again, we should talk about the legacy of President Jimmy Carter. I was a 7-year-old child living in Mexico City when he left office, so your recollections of him are much more valuable and interesting than mine.Gail: I distinctly remember bemoaning the energy shortage that left drivers waiting in long lines at the gas stations, but that’s hardly an insider’s story.Bret: Those lines put last year’s spike in gas prices in perspective.Gail: And every Democrat worried about Carter’s minimal talent for communication. He made a big TV appearance to promote energy conservation, wearing a sweater and sitting next to a fire, looking more silly than inspiring.Now, when I recall some of the stuff he did — environmental protection, promoting diversity, negotiating a peace agreement between Israel and Egypt — I appreciate him a lot more.Bret: Airline deregulation, too. Made air travel affordable to middle-class America for the first time. And he had the guts to nominate Paul Volcker to the Federal Reserve in 1979 to jack up interest rates and finally tame inflation, even though it would help cost him his presidency the next year.Gail: But the biggest thing he’s leaving us, Bret, is the story of his post-presidency. Campaigning endlessly for human rights, fair voting around the world and housing for the poor. Rather than holding press conferences to make his point, he’d swing a hammer with the crew at low-income housing construction sites.If high-ranking politicians see retirement from their top jobs as just a path to giving big-money speeches and writing the occasional memoir, they set a bad example for every older American. Carter showed how the later stages of life can actually be the richest and most rewarding.Bret: There’s a lot about Carter’s policy views that didn’t square with my own, and his persona sometimes struck me as … immodestly modest. But he was a unique figure in American political life, and he single-handedly disproved F. Scott Fitzgerald’s contention about there being no second acts in American lives.Gail: Not to mention third acts!Bret: He also showed how much more valuable a purpose- and values-driven life can be than one consumed by the culture of celebrity, wealth and pleasure — something that seriously tarnished the post-presidential legacy of a certain Southern Democrat who succeeded him, to say nothing of an even more saturnalian Republican president.Totally different topic, Gail, but I want to recommend our colleague Michelle Goldberg’s terrific column on the terrible mental-health effects of social media, particularly for teenagers. She mentions a proposal by Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri to totally ban social media for kids under 16. It’s one to which, as a father of three teenagers, I’m pretty sympathetic. Your thoughts?Gail: I read Michelle’s great piece and remembered how paranoid I was as a teenager when I thought two of my friends might be talking about me on the phone after school. Can’t imagine how I’d have felt if they had the capacity to do it as a group, while they were supposed to be studying after dinner. With a transcript available to the entire class later in the evening.Bret: Not only frequently abusive but also addictive. Someone once said that there are only two industries that speak of their customers as “users” — drug dealers and social-media companies.Gail: Just saying that kids can’t use social media sounds very attractive. But somehow I have my doubts it’ll work. Wonder if the more likely outcome might be a system the more sophisticated kids could use while the poorer, or less technologically cool ones, got sidelined.Am I being overly paranoid?Bret: No ban works perfectly. But if we were able to more or less end teenage cigarette smoking over the last 20 years, it shouldn’t be out of the question to try to do the same with social-media use. I can’t imagine that it’s beyond the technological reach of a company like Apple to write some code that stops social-media apps from being downloaded to phones whose primary users they know are under the age of 16.Gail: Well, happy to insist they do that. Even if they don’t know how, it’d increase pressure for them to find a way.Bret: I would welcome it, and I suspect most teenagers would, too. It’s hard enough being 14 or 15 without needing to panic about some embarrassing Instagram pic or discovering too late that something stupid or awful you wrote on Facebook or Twitter at 16 comes back to haunt you at 20.Gail: Hey, it’s traumatic enough being haunted by what I said last month.Bret: Or last week.As columnists, we volunteered to have a paper trail for our critics to pick through. We owe it to the kids to shield them from creating public records of their own indiscretions and idiocies. Life will come roaring at them soon enough. I say no social media till they’re old enough to vote, smoke and maybe even buy a drink. Full-frontal stupidity should be left to the grown-ups — like us!The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Trump Visits Ohio, Seeking to Draw Contrast With Biden Over Train Derailment

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      The former president has attacked the administration’s handling of the train derailment, even as his own environmental policies while in office have been criticized.EAST PALESTINE, Ohio — It was evocative of the former president’s time in office: an at-times meandering address, punctated by self-promotion — his brand-name Trump Water — and an undercurrent of grievance.But as he visited the small Ohio town of East Palestine on Wednesday, former President Donald J. Trump sought to hammer home a message just by showing up — that his successor and the man he’s seeking to replace, President Biden, had been ineffective in responding to a domestic crisis after a train derailed and spewed toxic chemicals early this month.Mr. Trump had arrived on the ground before either Mr. Biden or the transportation secretary to a train derailment many Republicans have turned into a referendum on a lack of federal concern with the needs of red-state America.At an East Palestine firehouse where he met first-responders and local elected officials, Mr. Trump, in remarks behind a lectern, said that “what this community needs now are not excuses and all of the other things you’ve been hearing, but answers and results.”He suggested the administration had shown “indifference and betrayal” and he talked about how truckloads of his name-brand water would be distributed to residents, as local officials referred to him as “President Trump” or “the president.” And while he made reference to the “Fake News,” he praised reporters for their coverage and, for a change, his emphasis on grievances was not primarily about his own.Mr. Trump traveled with his son Donald Trump Jr. and was joined at the firehouse by two top Ohio Republicans — Senator J.D. Vance and Representative Bill Johnson. One of his goals was to suggest that Mr. Biden and his administration were simply responding to him. During Mr. Trump’s visit, federal officials announced that the transportation secretary, Pete Buttigieg, planned to visit East Palestine on Thursday.Mr. Trump knocked Mr. Biden as absent after the episode’s fallout and suggested he was waiting for the president to “get back from touring Ukraine.”The Train Derailment in East Palestine, OhioWhen a freight train derailed in Ohio on Feb. 3, it set off evacuation orders, a chemical scare and a federal investigation.A Heated Town Hall: Hundreds of Ohio residents gathered to demand answers about the fallout from the derailed train. Officials for the railroad company pulled out hours earlier, infuriating locals.Cleanup Costs: The Environmental Protection Agency ordered Norfolk Southern, the operator of the derailed train, to clean up any resulting contamination and pay all the costs.Federal Response: The head of the E.P.A. visited East Palestine and the White House pledged to lend more support, but both were met with skepticism in the community.Spurring Speculation: For many influencers across the political spectrum, claims about the environmental effects of the train derailment in Ohio have gone far beyond established facts.In reality, the Biden administration has had officials from key agencies on the ground since the derailment, the president has spoken to the governor and the Environmental Protection Agency has ordered the railroad to perform a cleanup and cover expenses. But no major official, or the president, had visited, which Mr. Trump and Republicans have seized on.Mr. Trump was the first Republican to announce a 2024 run for the White House. His visit highlighted an unusual moment in presidential politics: A former president touring the scene of an emergency and coordinating the distribution of water and supplies, as he once did in office, while aggressively criticizing the current administration’s response.The former president has spent days attacking Mr. Biden, suggesting he had walked away from residents in a deep-red state that Mr. Trump won in the 2016 and 2020 elections.But the derailment and its aftermath have also focused attention on Mr. Trump’s own environmental policies and his cuts to regulations. And while Mr. Trump sometimes showed up at disaster sites as president, his ability to be empathetic has never been a strong suit. In one famous moment during his presidency, Mr. Trump raised eyebrows on a visit to Puerto Rico after a hurricane, by tossing rolls of paper towels at people in need of supplies, as if throwing T-shirts into the stands at a baseball game.A freight train carrying hazardous chemicals derailed this month in East Palestine, Ohio. Former President Donald J. Trump visited the area on Wednesday afternoon.Brian Kaiser for The New York TimesMr. Trump’s visit to East Palestine was far more traditional and subdued — though he still appeared to struggle with showing empathy in public — as he described the unexpected circumstance residents there were facing.He described the “nightmare” that people had suffered because of the “dangerous-looking site” he had just toured, saying the tragedy “rocked the lives” of people there.On Wednesday morning, more than a dozen people in Trump gear waited in the pouring rain for the former president along the city’s downtown streets. Grabbing coffee at a local McDonald’s, Duane Stalnaker, 78, said he drove in from nearby Salem for a chance to see Mr. Trump.“Personally, I think the response has been pretty good,” Mr. Stalnaker said. “This is something you just don’t experience every week. How do you really prepare for it?”In interviews in recent days, several East Palestine residents have described developing coughs or odd rashes on their skin, finding farm animals sick or dead and coping with stress and anxiety about possible exposure to harmful chemicals. State and federal officials have said repeatedly that they have yet to detect dangerous levels of chemicals in the air or municipal water. Numerous specialists from several federal agencies have been conducting tests of the air and water.In Ohio, where distrust of the government and wealthy corporate interests are common sentiments, many have focused their criticism not on state and local Republican leaders, but on the Biden administration and federal officials. They said local and state Republican leaders had few resources to better manage the spill, but criticized Mr. Biden as being too consumed with China and Ukraine to pay attention to a tragedy at home.As he drank a cup of coffee on Monday at Sprinklz on Top, a diner in downtown East Palestine, William Huger, 56, had words for the president. “What’s he doing? Popping balloons from China,” said Mr. Huger, referring to Mr. Biden and the downing of a Chinese spy balloon.On Wednesday, by the time Mr. Trump left the fire station, dozens of people were standing in the streets with umbrellas waiting for him. A few waved Trump flags and cheered, while others snapped photos. At least one makeshift tent was selling Trump T-shirts.Down the street at the McDonald’s, Steven Telischak, the owner of the franchise, called the former president’s visit uplifting. Mr. Telischak had spent his days after the crash preparing breakfasts for emergency responders and worrying about the stench of chemicals in the air.His wife shared photos of the Trumps and Mr. Vance shaking hands with the fast-food restaurant’s employees and passing out Make America Great Again hats.“We really appreciate people coming to town and giving this national recognition,” said Mr. Telischak’s wife, Michele.As Mr. Trump and Republicans in Congress increasingly attack the Biden administration for its response to the derailment, the White House responded on Wednesday by accusing both the Trump administration and Republican lawmakers of dismantling Obama-era rail safety measures put in place to prevent episodes like the East Palestine derailment.“Congressional Republicans laid the groundwork for the Trump administration to tear up requirements for more effective train brakes, and last year most House Republicans wanted to defund our ability to protect drinking water,” Andrew Bates, a spokesman for the White House, said in a statement.A person close to Mr. Trump countered that federal officials said the cause appeared to be an axle, not a brake issue, and the repealed brake-related regulation had no bearing on the crash.The White House also referred to a 2021 letter signed by more than 20 Republican senators supporting waivers for the rail industry to limit in-person safety inspections of railroad tracks.Mr. Buttigieg, the transportation secretary and the focus of much of the Republican criticism, is planning to visit East Palestine on Thursday to hear from officials and residents, and to receive an update on the investigation by the National Transportation Safety Board, which plans to release its initial findings on Thursday.Mr. Buttigieg will be joined by two federal officials who have been at the scene — Amit Bose, who leads the Federal Railroad Administration, and Tristan Brown, the deputy administrator for the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration.Mr. Buttigieg has called on the operator of the train that derailed, Norfolk Southern, as well as the nation’s other freight rail companies, to take immediate steps to improve safety.He previously said he did not want his visit to be a distraction and would wait until the federal response in East Palestine moved past the emergency phase. 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      Forecasting the Future of Election Prediction Markets

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      After flying under the radar as academic experiments, the markets are facing close regulatory scrutiny. But they are worth preserving, our columnist says.I’ve used prediction markets for years, never for trading but rather as a source of information, an interesting adjunct to polls, economic and political models, and traditional reporting, especially when elections grow near.But the U.S. prediction markets that allow people to place legal bets on American elections have run into regulatory problems.PredictIt, the larger of the two prediction markets operating in the United States, has emerged over the last several years as a go-to source for journalists and academics seeking to harness the “wisdom of crowds” for a sense of where the elections are heading.At the moment, the bets on its site amount to a forecast of Republican control of both the House and the Senate. PredictIt’s older and more purely academic counterpart, the Iowa Electronic Markets, is showing the same essential picture.Kalshi, a third and overtly commercial derivatives market, had hoped to start trading contracts on the outcome of the midterm elections by now, but its application has stalled at the Commodities Futures Trading Commission.The various markets — PredictIt, the Iowa market, overseas markets like Betfair in Britain and predecessors like the Irish sites Intrade and Tradesports — have had plenty of glitches through the years. They aren’t always accurate, and their results, if not interpreted carefully, look deceptively extreme. A thin edge in election polling can be magnified in these markets as a definitive advantage, but they are often fundamentally correct. Academic studies have found that they stack up quite well against opinion polls and standard political forecasts.Such markets have also provided compelling results in experiments aimed at estimating Hollywood movie box office results, improving weather forecasts and providing corporations and the Defense Department with information on security, health care and product quality control issues.They all work on the basic notion that when markets are broad and efficient enough and money is at stake, the collective information embodied in their prices is closer to the truth than the conclusions that most individuals can come up with on their own.This may well be true over the long run, but one flaw in this approach is obvious if you have been following the stock, bond, foreign exchange or commodity markets this year: Over short periods, markets are as fickle as a cat. I see no reason to assume that election markets are inherently wiser or steadier than the stock market, which I don’t trust as a guide to much of anything over short periods.Still, prediction markets are fascinating, and provide a worthwhile source of data on a vast array of subjects. They also have tremendous financial possibilities.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsElection Day is Tuesday, Nov. 8.Biden’s Speech: In a prime-time address, President Biden denounced Republicans who deny the legitimacy of elections, warning that the country’s democratic traditions are on the line.State Supreme Court Races: The traditionally overlooked contests have emerged this year as crucial battlefields in the struggle over the course of American democracy.Democrats’ Mounting Anxiety: Top Democratic officials are openly second-guessing their party’s pitch and tactics, saying Democrats have failed to unite around one central message.Social Security and Medicare: Republicans, eyeing a midterms victory, are floating changes to the safety net programs. Democrats have seized on the proposals to galvanize voters.“Prediction markets are going to be a very big business,” said William R. Hambrecht, an early investor in Silicon Valley companies like Apple and Adobe and a major investor in Aristotle, the company that runs PredictIt. “I don’t think you can overstate the potential, once the regulatory issues are resolved.”An Old American PastimeBetting on elections is, technically, illegal in the United States. But the reality is that it has been commonplace since the early days of the republic, Koleman Strumpf, a Wake Forest University economist, said in an interview.By the late 19th century, New York City had become a national center for betting on both finance and politics. Early in the 20th century, whenever elections rolled around, traders outside the New York Stock Exchange placed high-volume wagers on the Curb Market, a rollicking, over-the-counter outdoor marketplace for stocks, bonds and politics.In the current era, the Commodities Futures Trading Commission has permitted the two low-stakes markets — the Iowa Electronic Markets and PredictIt — to operate under academic exemptions.But in August, the commission ordered PredictIt to cease operations by Feb. 15. The agency hasn’t publicly explained its reasons for the cancellation, which PredictIt is fighting in the courts. One issue may be PredictIt’s popularity — the volume of betting on the site has sometimes exceeded the limits set when PredictIt began operating as an educational venture in 2014.A week ago, the commission staff recommended against Kalshi’s bid to start a higher-stakes trade in futures contracts on the control of Congress resulting from the midterm elections. The commission tends to side with its staff’s recommendations, but has not indicated how it will rule on the Kalshi case.In an email, Steven Adamske, a commission spokesman, said only: “Kalshi’s application is still pending, and I don’t have a timeline for when it will be announced.”In an interview, Tarek Mansour, a founder of Kalshi, pointed out that his exchange already offered robust trading on important questions like the future of inflation in the United States and the path of Federal Reserve interest rate increases, and that it was running an unofficial contest asking people to forecast the elections.“That’s an effort at educating people about our site,” he said. “We agree that we need regulation, and we are waiting patiently for guidance from the C.F.T.C.”The Two Election MarketsIt is possible that once the midterms are over, only the Iowa market will remain as a legal outlet for election betting. It has functioned since 1988 as a modest, money-losing “Internet-based teaching and research tool” that allows up to 2,000 people — students of the University of Iowa and anyone else with the money and interest — to place bets of $5 to $500 on the outcome of events, including U.S. elections.As long as it sticks to these unequivocally educational goals and people at the university are willing to take the time and effort to keep it running, its future seems reasonably secure.“It’s a labor of love,” said Thomas S. Gruca, the director of the prediction market and a professor at the university’s Tippie College of Business. “It takes a lot of time from a lot of volunteers to keep it going. But a lot of people are learning a lot because of it.”PredictIt is something of a hybrid. It is a joint venture. One partner is Victoria University of Wellington, a New Zealand institution. The other is Aristotle, a for-profit American political consulting, compliance, data and software company, whose founder, John Aristotle Phillips, first gained national attention in 1976 as “the A-bomb kid” — a Princeton undergraduate who successfully designed an atomic bomb in a physics class project.“It was about arms control,” he told me in an interview. “I showed that a bomb could be built, and that we needed more controls.”Aristotle does the day-to-day work running PredictIt, and the university has been playing a passive role. While the data from the prediction market at the University of Iowa is regularly used in classrooms and in research there, that is not the case for Victoria University.“We are not aware of any scholars at Victoria University of Wellington using the data, but, as they don’t need to come through us to access it, that would be a question better directed to PredictIt,” Katherine Edmond, the university’s director of communications, said in an email.PredictIt is used extensively by scholars around the world, but mainly by Americans, who are listed on its site, and have relied on it for years, as have journalists like me. In addition to filing suit, Aristotle has applied for permission to become a commercial exchange, like Kalshi, a move that would end the restrictions on its size and scope.A Modest PredictionFrom the standpoint of many economists, the prediction markets, for all their flaws, have been spectacularly successful.“There’s tremendous social utility to having these markets operate, and having this information available,” said Eric Zitzewitz, a Dartmouth professor who has studied prediction markets extensively. “There’s a lot of demand for them — people enjoy participating in them and consuming the information they provide.”Betting on elections won’t go away, no matter what the regulators decide. Such betting could migrate to overseas markets or to unregulated markets in cyberspace that are outside U.S. regulatory control.Far better, I think, would be to allow them to operate within U.S. borders as transparent, robust — and carefully regulated — operations. Until now, both the Iowa market and PredictIt have been small enough to be fairly innocuous in terms of their effects on elections themselves. When big money flows into prediction markets — as I suspect it one day will — the potential for real trouble will be far greater. Markets can be manipulated and corruption flourish, so smart and active regulators are needed to keep markets honest.That’s true for the stock market. Regulating U.S. prediction markets will become far more critical when large sums are focused directly on the outcome of elections, which are, after all, the foundation of our democracy. Prediction markets are important enough to be preserved. But elections are important enough for regulators to move slowly and carefully. More

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      U.S. and Russia Duel Over Leadership of U.N. Tech Group

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      Member countries vote on Thursday for an American or a Russian to lead the International Telecommunication Union, which sets standards for new technologies.WASHINGTON — The United States and Russia are tussling over control of a United Nations organization that sets standards for new technologies, part of a global battle between democracies and authoritarian nations over the direction of the internet.American officials are pushing more than 190 other member countries of the International Telecommunication Union, a U.N. agency that develops technical standards for technology like cellphone networks and video streaming, to vote on Thursday for Doreen Bogdan-Martin, a longtime American employee, to lead the organization. She is running against Rashid Ismailov, a former Russian government official.The American campaign has been especially intense. President Biden endorsed Ms. Bogdan-Martin last week, capping months of public and private lobbying on her behalf by top administration figures and major U.S. corporate groups.Whoever leads the I.T.U. will have power to influence the rules by which new technologies are developed around the world. While the organization is not well known, it has set key guidelines in recent years for how video streaming works and coordinates the global use of the radio frequencies that power cellphone networks.The election has become a symbol of the growing global fight between a democratic approach to the internet, which is lightly regulated and interconnected around the world, and authoritarian countries that want to control their citizens’ access to the web. Russia has built a system that allows it to do just that, monitoring what Russians say online about topics like the invasion of Ukraine, while the United States largely does not regulate the content on social networks like Facebook and Twitter.Some worry that Russia and China, which also has closed off its internet, could use the I.T.U. to reshape the web in their images. The two countries put out a joint statement last year calling for preserving “the sovereign right of states to regulate the national segment of the internet.” They said they were emphasizing “the need to enhance the role of the International Telecommunication Union and strengthen the representation of the two countries in its governing bodies.”Doreen Bogdan-Martin of the United States at the opening session of the International Telecommunication Union in Bucharest, Romania, on Monday.Andreea Alexandru/Associated PressErica Barks-Ruggles, a State Department official and former ambassador to Rwanda who is representing the United States at an I.T.U. conference this week, said the organization would help determine if people around the world could have affordable access to new technology and communicate across borders, and “whether their governments are able to disconnect them from the internet or not.”“That’s why we’re putting time, money, energy into this,” she said.The I.T.U. was founded in 1865 to tackle issues involving telegraph machines. It traditionally focused on physical networks rather than the internet, but has become involved in setting standards for everything from smart home devices to connected cars. The agency’s plenipotentiary conference, which takes place every four years, began on Monday in Bucharest, Romania.Last week, Mr. Biden said Ms. Bogdan-Martin “possesses the integrity, experience and vision necessary to transform the digital landscape.” Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and other senior administration officials have also backed her candidacy.At a recent conference in Kigali, Rwanda, the United States hosted a reception at the city’s conference center where attendees heard a pitch from Ms. Bogdan-Martin, saw a video endorsement from Vice President Kamala Harris and listened to music from a local band.In response to emailed questions, Ms. Bogdan-Martin said she hoped her leadership of the I.T.U. could expand global access to the internet and improve transparency at the organization. She said she hoped to lead in “bringing an open, secure, reliable and interoperable internet to all people around the world.”Moscow is supporting Mr. Ismailov, a former deputy minister for telecom and mass communications for the Russian government and a former executive at Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications company that American officials worry could leak data from its products to Beijing.The Russian Embassy in Washington did not respond to a request for comment.The proxy battle of the election may be the first of many more.“I see the U.S. really engaged in a new kind of foreign policy attack, where they see our adversaries and our competitors are wanting to change the rules of the game to shut off access,” said Karen Kornbluh, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund. More

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      Why Zombie Reaganomics Still Rules the G.O.P.

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      What’s my plan for the next two years? I will be happy, healthy and successful. What will I do to achieve these things? What are you, a Marxist?I’ve now summarized the essence of the Commitment to America announced by House Republicans last week. This “plan” was obviously meant to evoke Newt Gingrich’s 1994 Contract With America, which was followed by a Republican takeover of Congress.But the Contract With America, love it or hate it — put me in the latter category — offered a fairly specific policy agenda, with a list of planned legislation. What Republicans have just released, by contrast, is mainly a list of good things they claim will happen, with barely a hint of how they propose to make them happen.If you squint hard at the economics section of the Commitment to America, however, you can see the faint outlines of a familiar set of ideas — zombie Reaganomics. Which raises a question: Why are deregulation, benefit cuts and tax breaks for the rich still the ruling ideology of a party that now claims to stand for the working class?Before I get there, a couple of notes on what the economics portion of the commitment actually says.First, it’s striking how many of the economic complaints are about things that are barely, if at all, affected by government policy, like the price of gas (which has come down a lot since its peak) and supply-chain disruptions (which have been diminishing).Second, immediately after declaring that “we have a plan to fix the economy,” House Republicans say that they will “curb wasteful government spending.” As anyone who follows budget debates knows, that’s the ultimate weasel phrase. What spending are we talking about, specifically?Bear in mind that the federal government is basically an insurance company with an army: The great bulk of spending is on health care, retirement and the military. You can’t meaningfully cut expenditure without attacking at least one of these. So which parts of that spending are wasteful?Well, Senator Rick Scott, the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, has called for sunsetting all federal programs — including Social Security and Medicare — every five years, which would open the door to gutting America’s social safety net. Other Republicans have tried to distance themselves from that idea, although without removing Scott from his position. But again, what is this wasteful spending they propose to cut?But back to the commitment. Its economic program, such as it is, calls for “pro-growth tax and deregulatory policies.” No specifics, but this is clearly a call for zombie Reaganomics.Why “zombie”? Because we now have four decades’ worth of experience showing that deregulation and tax cuts for the rich do not, in fact, produce higher wages and faster economic growth. So the idea that tax cuts are the secret of prosperity should be dead, yet somehow it’s still shambling along, eating Republican brains.Of course, I’m just saying that because I’m a Marxist. (I’m not, but that’s what modern Republicans call anyone who supports progressive taxation and social insurance.) But for what it’s worth, financial markets share my skepticism. Look at what’s happening in Britain, where Prime Minister Liz Truss’s recent announcement of a Reaganite economic plan sent interest rates soaring and the pound plunging.Which brings me back to my original question: Why is the G.O.P. still committed to a failed economic ideology?For a long time, the G.O.P. seemed to fit the portrait famously drawn by Thomas Frank in his book “What’s the Matter With Kansas?” That is, it was a party mostly dedicated to making the rich richer that managed to win elections on social issues — which in practice meant catering to bigotry while campaigning, then pivoting to tax and benefit cuts immediately afterward.With the rise of MAGA, however, catering to bigotry is no longer a marketing device; it’s the party’s main agenda. In that case, however, why continue plutocrat-friendly policies? Why not add some actual populism to the mix? Why did Representative Kevin McCarthy, who will likely become speaker if Republicans take the House, declare that his first bill would be one to repeal additional funding for the Internal Revenue Service, allowing wealthy tax cheats to breathe easy?Part of the answer may be that anti-abortion, anti-L.G.B.T.Q., anti-immigrant warriors don’t know or care much about economic policy, so they’ve left it in the hands of the usual suspects — congressional staff members, conservative think tankers and other apparatchiks who’ve spent their whole careers promoting the tax-cut mystique.But there may also be a strategy here. Billionaires may no longer run the G.O.P. the way they used to, but the party still wants their money. So plutocrat-friendly policies may be a way of keeping wealthy donors and corporations on board, even if many of them are uncomfortable with the right-wing social agenda.This strategy depends, however, on working-class voters not realizing what Republicans are up to. Hence the vacuous nature of the Commitment to America; any acknowledgment of what the G.O.P. might actually do could be a big political problem.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Your Friday Briefing: Men Flee Russian Conscription

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      Plus Japan props up the yen and Cambodia concludes its Khmer Rouge trials.A billboard in St. Petersburg promoting military service.Olga Maltseva/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesMen flee Russia, fearing draftOne day after President Vladimir Putin announced a plan to bring 300,000 civilians into military service, thousands of Russians received draft papers and boarded buses to training sites. Many others left the country in a rush, paying rising prices to catch flights to Armenia, Georgia, Montenegro and Turkey, some of the countries that allow Russians to enter without visas.Russian officials said the call-up would be limited to people with combat experience. But one journalist said her husband, a father of five with no military experience, had been summoned.Our reporter spoke to a 23-year-old who bought a plane ticket to Istanbul, wrapped up his business and kissed his crying mother goodbye — all within about 12 hours of Putin’s announcement. He said he has no idea when he will return. “I was sitting and thinking about what I could die for, and I didn’t see any reason to die for the country,” he said. Here are live updates.Reaction: The E.U. is scrambling to decide how to respond. Countries are weighing security concerns against their desire to help those fleeing an unjust war.Surveillance: The Times obtained nearly 160,000 files from Russia’s powerful internet regulator, which the government uses to find opponents and squash dissent. Compared with China, much of the work of Russian censors is done manually, but what Moscow lacks in sophistication, it has made up for in determination.The Japanese yen has been sliding against the U.S. dollar.Kim Kyung-Hoon/ReutersJapan props up the declining yenJapan announced yesterday that it had intervened to prop up the value of the yen for the first time in 24 years, in an effort to stop the currency’s continuing slide against the dollar.Yesterday, the yen passed 145 to the dollar after the U.S. Federal Reserve’s announcement on Wednesday that it would raise its policy rate by an additional three-quarters of a percentage point. The yen has lost over 20 percent of its value against the dollar over the past year, and it has been the worst performing currency among major developed economies this year.Context: The yen’s plunge has largely been caused by Japan’s determination to keep interest rates low. The government’s intervention followed an announcement by the Bank of Japan that it would stick fast to its longstanding ultralow interest rate policy — even as most other countries have begun to follow the U.S. Federal Reserve’s increases.Explore the World of the ‘Lord of the Rings’The literary universe built by J.R.R. Tolkien, now adapted into a new series for Amazon Prime Video, has inspired generations of readers and viewers.Artist and Scholar: Tolkien did more than write books. He invented an alternate reality, complete with its own geography, languages and history.Being Frodo: The actor Elijah Wood explains why he’ll never be upset at being associated with the “Lord of the Rings” movie series. A Soviet Take: A 1991 production based on Tolkien’s novels, recently digitized by a Russian broadcaster, is a time capsule of a bygone era. From the Archives: Read what W.H. Auden wrote about “The Fellowship of the Ring,” the first volume of Tolkien’s trilogy, in 1954.History: For years, a weak yen was widely seen as a boon for its export-driven economy, making Japanese products cheaper and more attractive for consumers abroad.Elsewhere: The Bank of England raised its key interest rate by half a point to 2.25 percent yesterday, the highest level since 2008. It is the latest effort to tame high inflation.Khieu Samphan, 91, is the last surviving Khmer Rouge leader. Nhet Sok Heng/Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia, via Associated PressProsecuting the Khmer RougeFor more than 15 years, a court in a military camp in Cambodia has been working to prosecute the crimes of the Khmer Rouge regime, which caused the deaths of an estimated 1.7 million Cambodians in the late 1970s.In its final hearing yesterday, it rejected an appeal by Khieu Samphan, 91, the fanatical communist movement’s last surviving leader, upholding his conviction and life sentence for genocide and other crimes.Many victims think the United Nations-backed tribunal, which spent over $330 million, was a hollow exercise conducted far too long after the atrocities were committed. Only three people were convicted, and many of the Khmer Rouge’s senior figures — including its notorious top leader, Pol Pot — were long dead by the time the court was created.Background: From 1975 to 1979, the Khmer Rouge caused the deaths of nearly a quarter of the population from execution, torture, starvation and untreated disease as it sought to abolish modernity and create an agrarian utopia.THE LATEST NEWSAsia PacificKim Jong-un, North Korea’s leader, with Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, in 2019.Pool photo by Alexander ZemlianichenkoNorth Korea denied a U.S. intelligence report that it was selling millions of artillery shells and rockets ​to Russia, accusing the U.S. of spreading a “reckless” rumor.The Malaysian businessman known as Fat Leonard, who was at the center of a U.S. Navy bribery scandal, was recaptured after he escaped house arrest two weeks ago.Tonga’s enormous underwater volcano that erupted in January may have caused a short-term spike in global warming, scientists said.Yoon Suk Yeol, the South Korean president, was caught on a hot mic calling U.S. lawmakers “idiots,” The Washington Post reports.Around the WorldDavid Malpass, the president of the World Bank, refused to acknowledge human-caused global warming earlier this week. Yesterday, he said he accepted the overwhelming scientific conclusion.A U.S. federal appeals court allowed the Justice Department to resume using sensitive documents seized from Donald Trump in its investigation.U.S. veterans are pushing Congress to grant Afghan evacuees a pass to residency, but some Republicans argue they pose security risks.A deadly cholera outbreak is spreading in Syria, where millions of people, displaced by civil war, lack clean water and health care.What Else Is HappeningCameron Smith/Getty Images for Laver CupRoger Federer will play the last competitive match of his career today in London.For the first time, Catholics outnumber Protestants in Northern Island, a striking demographic shift that could eventually fuel calls to reunite Ireland.The U.S. Senate ratified an international treaty to phase out hydrofluorocarbons, the planet-warming chemicals found in refrigerators and air-conditioners.The U.S. is on track to break its record for guns intercepted at airport checkpoints in one year. So far 4,600 have been discovered, and nearly 90 percent are loaded.A Morning ReadMohammed Zubair, second from the right, is a founder of Alt News. He was jailed this summer over a complaint from an anonymous Twitter user.Atul Loke for The New York TimesFake news is rising in India, with a surge of disinformation after the rise of Narendra Modi, the Hindu nationalist prime minister. Alt News, an independent website, has emerged as a leading debunker of misinformation, such as stories about child-kidnapping gangs and Muslims spreading Covid.But highlighting hate speech against minority groups has put it on a collision course with Modi’s government: A founder was recently arrested and is accused of spreading communal unrest.ARTS AND IDEASTolkien, for Italy’s right wing?Italy’s national election is on Sunday. Giorgia Meloni, the hard-right politician who is the front-runner to become the country’s next prime minister, has a surprising personal manifesto.Meloni loves “The Lord of the Rings” and sees the fantasy adventure series, written by J.R.R. Tolkien, as something of a sacred text. As a youth activist in the post-Fascist Italian Social Movement, she used to dress up as a hobbit.That might seem like a youthful infatuation. But in Italy, “The Lord of the Rings” has informed generations of post-Fascist youth. They have looked to Tolkien’s traditionalist mythic age for symbols, heroes and creation myths free of Fascist taboos, from which they could reconstruct a hard-right identity.Meloni, 45, said that she had learned from dwarves, elves and hobbits the “value of specificity” with “each indispensable for the fact of being particular.” She extrapolated that as a lesson about protecting Europe’s sovereign nations and unique identities.“I think that Tolkien could say better than us what conservatives believe in,” Meloni said. “I don’t consider ‘The Lord of the Rings’ fantasy.”PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookKelly Marshall for The New York TimesThis roasted mushroom and halloumi grain bowl is warm and adaptable.What to Read“Getting Lost,” a series of diary entries by the French writer Annie Ernaux, recounts an all-consuming romance with a younger man.DrinkThe appletini is back, and it’s ushering in a new martini era.Now Time to PlayPlay today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Even the slightest bit (five letters).Here are today’s Wordle and today’s Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you next time. — AmeliaP.S. Phil Pan is our next International editor. He was the first Asia editor of The Times based in Hong Kong and previously served as our Beijing bureau chief. The latest episode of “The Daily” is on Vladimir Putin’s escalation of the war.You can reach Amelia and the team at briefing@nytimes.com. More