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      For Christie, Winning Would Be Great. Beating Trump Would Be a Close Second.

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      The former New Jersey governor’s presidential bid is a long shot. But if he takes out Donald J. Trump along the way, Chris Christie may consider it a victory.Chris Christie is embarking on a mission that even some of his fiercest allies must squint to see ending in the White House.But Mr. Christie, the former governor of New Jersey who is now 60 and more than five years removed from holding elected office, has been undeterred, talking up an undertaking that he frames as almost as important as winning the presidency: extricating the Republican Party from the grip of Donald J. Trump.“You need to think about who’s got the skill to do that and who’s got the guts to do it because it’s not going to end nicely no matter what,” Mr. Christie said in March at the same New Hampshire college where he plans to announce his long-shot bid on Tuesday.“His end,” he said of the former president, “will not be a calm and quiet conclusion.”As he enters the race, Mr. Christie has cast himself as the one candidate unafraid to give voice to the frustrations of Republicans who have watched Mr. Trump transform the party and have had enough — either of the ideological direction or the years of compounding electoral losses.For Mr. Christie — who lent crucial legitimacy to Mr. Trump’s then-celebrity campaign by endorsing him after his own 2016 presidential campaign failed — it is quite the reversal. After helping to fuel Mr. Trump’s rise, Mr. Christie has now set out to author his downfall.The question is whether there is any market for what he is selling inside a Republican Party with whom Mr. Trump remains overwhelmingly popular.“Just being like ‘I’m the kamikaze candidate’ — I’m not sure that’s going to play,” said Sean Spicer, the former White House press secretary to Mr. Trump. “For those people who don’t like Trump because of the mean tweets, are they going to like the guy who is mean about Donald Trump?”Mr. Christie’s flaws as an anti-Trump messenger are manifest. For almost all of Mr. Trump’s four years in the White House, Mr. Christie stood by the president — even catching a near-fatal Covid-19 infection during debate preparations in the fall of 2020 — only breaking with him over his stolen election lie and then the violence of Jan. 6, 2021.Mr. Christie listening to Mr. Trump during a news conference in 2020. Mr. Christie stood by Mr. Trump during his entire presidency.Al Drago for The New York TimesThe coming campaign, then, is expected to be something of a redemption tour. Pulled by the allure of the presidency for more than a decade — his decision not to run in 2012 at the peak of his popularity has been the subject of widespread second-guessing — he begins another run unburdened by expectations.Yes, he is trying to win. He has said he would not run unless he saw a pathway to victory. (“I’m not a paid assassin,” he told Politico.) But he also wants to turn the party from Mr. Trump.“He won’t like it, but he’s a loser. It’s that simple,” Mr. Christie said of Mr. Trump in an interview last year, shortly after the disappointing midterm election for Republicans.It’s the kind of quotable line and anti-Trump message that has turned a number of breakaway Republicans into CNN commentators or MSNBC stars and also made them former elected officials.Central to Mr. Christie’s pitch to disaffected Republicans is his debating skill. The most memorable achievement of his 2016 bid was his takedown of Senator Marco Rubio of Florida.“You’d better have somebody on that stage who can do to him what I did to Marco,” he said at his March event, regaling the crowd with the story of his bruising confrontation with Mr. Rubio. “Because that’s the only thing that’s going to defeat Donald Trump.”The first challenge for Mr. Christie, however, won’t be facing Mr. Trump. It will be qualifying for the debate stage. The Republican National Committee’s threshold of 40,000 donors across 20 states could prove especially arduous for a candidate without a small-donor following and whose anti-Trump message seems more likely to lure Democratic contributors than conservative ones.So far, Mr. Trump, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida and Vivek Ramaswamy, a self-funding businessman, have announced that they have hit that threshold. (There is also a 1 percent polling requirement.)Mr. Spicer, who later hosted a program on Newsmax, the right-wing cable network, noted that Mr. Christie “hasn’t exactly been on conservative media” to maintain a following on the right. “He’s hanging out on ABC,” Mr. Spicer said of the mainstream news network where Mr. Christie has been a paid commentator.Quick with a quote and savvy about the media — Mr. Christie turned snapping at reporters into a selling point for the G.O.P. base a decade before Mr. DeSantis — he may be banking on the thirst of news organizations for a frontal and colorful fight with Mr. Trump.After Mr. Trump’s recent town hall on CNN, when he would not say whether he was hoping Ukraine would win the war against Russia, Mr. Christie slashed him as “a puppet of Putin.”Yet even the relatively small faction of Republicans opposed to returning Mr. Trump to power may be leery of Mr. Christie. He not only provided a key early endorsement in 2016, he led his presidential transition, and was passed over for some top jobs while serving as an informal adviser and debate coach through the 2020 election.“Now you found Jesus?” questioned Rick Wilson, who was an outspoken Republican critic of Mr. Trump before leaving the party entirely. “And now you’re going to be the guy to take the fight to Trump?”“The credibility factor of Christie as a Trump antagonist is somewhere around zero,” Mr. Wilson said.When he makes his 2024 campaign official on Tuesday, Mr. Christie is expected to flesh out his vision for the nation in greater detail.Nicole Craine for The New York TimesEarly polling shows that Mr. Christie faces perhaps an even steeper uphill climb than other candidates who are polling with low single-digit support. He received 2 percent in a late May CNN poll, for instance, tied for fifth place with Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina.But of all the Republican candidates in the poll, the highest share — 60 percent — said Mr. Christie was someone they would not support under any circumstance. That figure was 15 percent for Mr. DeSantis and 16 percent for Mr. Trump.“You look at it objectively, it’s hard to see a clear lane for Chris Christie, being a Trump opponent and then a Trump acolyte and now a Trump opponent again,” said Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster who is unaligned in the 2024 race, though some partners at his firm are working with Mr. DeSantis. “There’s not a lot of room in the Republican electorate for that right now.”Still, in an increasingly crowded field of Republicans — former Vice President Mike Pence and Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota are also expected to join the race this week — the Christie team sees opportunity by being the lone candidate interested in breaking so clearly with Mr. Trump.Other lower-polling candidates have avoided criticizing the former president aggressively, in an attempt not to turn off his supporters. Some, like Nikki Haley, the former United Nations ambassador and governor of South Carolina, have preferred to take shots at Mr. DeSantis, vying to emerge as the leading Trump alternative by tackling him first. But Mr. Christie’s advisers see the path to the nomination running through Mr. Trump.His supporters have organized a super PAC, Tell It Like It Is, led by a number of veteran Republicans operatives. And Mr. Christie’s decision to begin in New Hampshire is a sign of the state’s central role in his political calculus, where he also based much of his 2016 campaigning, when he held more than 100 town halls. On Tuesday, he is expected to flesh out his vision for the nation in greater detail.But there are widespread doubts about how far Mr. Christie’s designs go beyond knocking down Mr. Trump. In an editorial on the eve of his kickoff, The Wall Street Journal editorial board wondered if the candidate might have an unintended impact on the race.“If Mr. Christie isn’t a guided missile aimed at Mr. Trump, is he an unguided one, liable to blow up, say, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis?” the editorial board wrote.Sean Hannity, the influential Fox News host, recently questioned whether he even wanted to give Mr. Christie airtime. “You’re only getting in this race because you hate Donald Trump and want to bludgeon Donald Trump,” Mr. Hannity said on air. “I don’t see Chris Christie actually wanting to run and win the nomination. He views it as his role to be the enforcer and to attack Trump.”Mr. Trump posted the clip on his social media site, Truth Social.Maggie Haberman More

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      Mike Pence Is ‘a Rebuke of Trump’s Presidency’: Our Columnists and Writers Weigh In on His Candidacy

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      As Republican candidates enter the race for their party’s 2024 presidential nomination, Times columnists, Opinion writers and others will assess their strengths and weaknesses with a scorecard. We rate the candidates on a scale of 1 to 10: 1 means the candidate will probably drop out before any caucus or primary voting; 10 means the candidate has a very strong chance of receiving the party’s nomination next summer. This entry assesses Mike Pence, the former vice president.Candidate strength averagesRon DeSantis: 6.1Tim Scott: 4.6Nikki Haley: 3.5Mike Pence: 3.0Asa Hutchinson: 2.3How seriously should we take Mike Pence’s candidacy?Frank Bruni At least a bit more seriously than the fly that colonized his coiffure during his 2020 debate with Kamala Harris did. He is polling well enough to be part of the Republican primary debates. Let’s hope that Chris Licht at CNN has an entomologist at the ready for the post-debate panel.Jane Coaston Not very.Michelle Cottle As seriously as the wet dishrag he impersonated for most of his term as V.P.Ross Douthat On paper, a former vice president known for his evangelical faith sounds like a plausible Republican candidate for president. But in practice, because of Pence’s role on Jan. 6 and his break with Donald Trump thereafter, to vote for Trump’s vice president is to actively repudiate Trump himself. So until there’s evidence the G.O.P. voters are ready for such an overt repudiation (as opposed to just moving on to another candidate), there isn’t good reason to take Pence’s chances seriously.David French Nothing signals G.O.P. loyalty to Trump more than G.O.P. anger at Mike Pence. And what sin has he committed in Republican eyes? After years of faithful service to Trump, he refused to violate the law and risk the unity of the Republic by wrongly overturning an American election. We can’t take Pence seriously until Republicans stop taking Trump seriously.Michelle Goldberg One clue to Mike Pence’s standing among Republican base voters is that many of them have made heroes out of a mob chanting “hang Mike Pence.”Nicole Hemmer On the one hand, he’s the former vice president, which has to count for something. On the other hand, a mob whipped up by the former president wanted to hang him in front of Congress, so his candidacy is a high-risk proposition.Katherine Mangu-Ward Mike Pence is a serious person. He is seriously not going to be president.Daniel McCarthy As things stand, his candidacy isn’t very serious. If calamity befalls Donald Trump, however, the former vice president could gain favor as the G.O.P. old guard’s alternative to Ron DeSantis.What matters most about him as a presidential candidate?Bruni He was Trump’s No. 2, so the fact of his candidacy is a rebuke of Trump’s presidency. He has a warm history with evangelical voters, whom he will assiduously court. And if squaring off against Trump somehow prods Pence to be more candid about what he saw at the fair, his words could theoretically wound.Coaston It is a candidacy no one wants.Cottle He’s a uniter: Everyone dislikes him.Douthat As long as he’s polling in the single digits, he matters only as a condensed symbol of the Republican electorate’s resilient loyalty to Trump. What could matter, come the debates, is that he’s the Republican with the strongest incentive to attack his former boss on character and fitness rather than just on issues — because his history with Trump sets him apart from the other non-Trump candidates, and his only possible path to the nomination involves persuading primary voters that he was right on Jan. 6 and Trump was wrong. If he sees it this way, his clashes with Trump could be interesting theater, and they might even help someone beat the former president; that someone, however, is still unlikely to be Pence himself.French Pence’s stand on Jan. 6 is defining him. In a healthy party, his integrity at that moment would be an asset. In the modern G.O.P., it’s a crippling liability.Goldberg It’s notable that Trump’s former vice president, the man chosen, in part, to reassure the Christian right, is now running against him. If Pence were willing to call out the treachery and mayhem he saw up close, it would be a useful intervention into our politics. But so far, he still seems cowed by his former boss.Hemmer In a rational world, he’d be a plausible candidate because of his strong connection to white evangelicals and time as V.P. But in this world, he’s the scapegoat for Trump’s failed effort to overthrow the 2020 election.Mangu-Ward Pence is an old-school Republican. The likely failure of his campaign will demonstrate how dead that version of the party really is. There was lots to hate about that party — including the punitive social conservatism demonstrated in his positions on abortion and gay rights — but I will confess to some nostalgia for the rhetoric of limited government and fiscal conservatism that still sometimes crosses Pence’s lips, seemingly in earnest.McCarthy His experience and calm demeanor give him a gravitas most rivals lack. He puts Governor DeSantis at risk of seeming too young to be president, even as the 44-year-old governor suggests Trump is too old.What do you find most inspiring — or unsettling — about his vision for America?Bruni I’m unsettled by how strongly Pence has always let his deeply conservative version of Christianity inform his policy positions. I respect people of faith, very much, but in a country with no official church and enormous diversity, he makes inadequate distinction between personal theology and public governance.Coaston He might be the most uninspiring candidate currently running.Cottle He wants to ram his conservative religious views down the nation’s throat.Douthat To the extent that Pence has a distinctive vision, it overlaps with both Nikki Haley’s and Tim Scott’s, albeit with a bit more piety worked in. Like them, he’s selling an upbeat Reaganism that seems out of step with both the concerns of G.O.P. voters and the challenges of the moment. The fact that Pence wants to revive George W. Bush’s push for private Social Security accounts is neither inspiring nor unsettling; it’s just quixotic, which so far feels like the spirit of his entire presidential run.French It’s plain that Pence wants to turn from Trumpism in both tone and in key elements of substance. He’s far more of a Reagan conservative than Trump ever was. Yet his accommodations to Trump remain unsettling even after Jan. 6. One can appreciate his stand for the Constitution while also recognizing that it’s a bit like applauding an arsonist for putting out a fire he helped start.Goldberg Pence would like to impose his religious absolutism on the entire country. As he said last year, after Roe v. Wade was overturned, “We must not rest and must not relent until the sanctity of life is restored to the center of American law in every state in the land.”Hemmer Pence doesn’t stir up culture wars to win elections — he earnestly believes in a strictly patriarchal, overtly Christian version of the United States. (He was bashing Disney for suggesting women could serve in combat back when DeSantis was still in college.)Mangu-Ward Pence’s vision for America includes the peaceful transfer of power. He was willing to say these words: “President Trump is wrong. I had no right to overturn the election.” This shouldn’t be inspiring; it should be the bare minimum for a viable political career. But here we are.McCarthy What’s unsettling about Pence’s vision is how similar it is to George W. Bush’s. It’s a vision that substitutes moralism for realism in foreign policy and is too deferential to the Chamber of Commerce at home — to the detriment of religious liberty as well as working-class families.Imagine you’re a G.O.P. operative or campaign manager. What’s your elevator pitch for a Pence candidacy?Bruni He was loyal to Trump until that would have been disloyal to democracy. No porn stars or hush money here. He has presidential hair. Even flies think so.Coaston The former governor of Indiana has some thoughts he’d like to share.Cottle He has high name recognition — and great hair.Douthat There are lots of Republicans who claimed they liked Trump’s conservative policies but didn’t like all the feuds, tweets and drama. Well, a vote for Pence is a vote for his administration’s second term, but this time drama-free.French G.O.P. voters, if you’re proud of the Trump administration’s accomplishments yet tired of Trump’s drama, Pence is your man.Goldberg Honestly, it’s not easy to come up with one, but I guess he’s qualified and he looks the part.Hemmer No one is better prepared to face down the woke mob than the candidate who survived an actual mob two years ago.Mangu-Ward Mike Pence: If he loses, he’ll admit that he lost!McCarthy Mike Pence means no drama and no disruption — a return to business as usual. Doesn’t that sound good right now?Ross Douthat, David French and Michelle Goldberg are Times columnists.Frank Bruni is a professor of journalism and public policy at Duke University, the author of the book “The Beauty of Dusk” and a contributing Opinion writer.Michelle Cottle (@mcottle) is a member of The Times’s editorial board.Jane Coaston is a Times Opinion writer.Nicole Hemmer (@pastpunditry) is an associate professor of history and director of the Rogers Center for the American Presidency at Vanderbilt University and the author of “Partisans: The Conservative Revolutionaries Who Remade American Politics in the 1990s” and “Messengers of the Right: Conservative Media and the Transformation of American Politics.”Katherine Mangu-Ward (@kmanguward) is the editor in chief of Reason magazine.Daniel McCarthy is the editor of “Modern Age: A Conservative Review.”The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Tim Scott Defends Remarks on Race on ‘The View’

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      The presidential candidate went on the daytime talk show to debate his views about systemic racism. But it was his comments about L.G.B.T.Q. rights that got boos from the audience.The chatty daytime talk show “The View” might seem like an unlikely platform for Tim Scott, a senator from South Carolina and a presidential candidate, to get his footing with Republican primary voters, but he saw an opening on Monday and tried to make the most of it.Mr. Scott, the first Black Republican from the South elected to the Senate since Reconstruction, had asked for an audience on the show after a co-host, Joy Behar, said Mr. Scott “doesn’t get it” when he denies the existence of systemic racism, which is why, she said, he is a Republican.Before a largely white, partisan crowd in Des Moines, Iowa, on Saturday, Mr. Scott had promised his appearance would make sparks fly, but in the end, the senator and the co-hosts largely spoke past one another.He said that suggesting that Black professionals and leaders are exceptions to the Black experience, not the rule, is “a dangerous, offensive, disgusting message to send to our young people today.”“The fact of the matter is we’ve had an African American president, African American vice president, we’ve had two African Americans to be secretaries of state,” Mr. Scott said. “In my home city, the police chief is African American who’s now running for mayor.”At one point, he defended Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida in his fight against Disney, saying that legislation that limits what teachers can say about gender and sexuality in the classroom “was the right issue as relates to our young kids and what they’re being indoctrinated with.”The comment prompted boos from the studio audience. Whoopi Goldberg, another co-host, loudly scolded the crowd and said that at “The View,” audience members “do not boo.”The field of candidates running for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024 includes Mr. Scott and Larry Elder, a Black conservative commentator, and two Indian American children of immigrants, Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor and United Nations ambassador, and Vivek Ramaswamy, an entrepreneur and author.All four have put personal stories of isolation and struggle at the center of their campaigns, while saying that family stories of discrimination and racism are relics of the past and do not reflect a form of prejudice still embedded in American society.On “The View,” Mr. Scott spoke again of his grandfather, who could not make eye contact with a white pedestrian in his small South Carolina town, Salley, and had to step off the sidewalk to let the white man pass by.“Progress in America is palpable,” he said. “It can be measured in generations.”Such talk goes over well with the largely white audiences that Republican presidential candidates speak to in the primary season. But on “The View,” the liberal hosts protested. Sunny Hostin, a co-host who is Black, said she was an exception in the story of Black achievement, as is Mr. Scott and the show’s most famous co-host, Whoopi Goldberg.“When it comes to racial inequality, it persists in five core aspects of life in the U.S. — economics, education, health care, criminal justice and housing,” she said. “At nearly every turn, these achievements were fought, threatened and erased, most often by white violence.”For Republican candidates, such appearances have multiple benefits. They can use them to appeal to audiences beyond the Republican base, and to say they are willing to step out of the bubble of the primary electorate. They can then amplify the jousting before Republican voters, as Donald J. Trump has done with his CNN town hall last month and as Mr. Ramaswamy does when he tells Republican audiences that his appearance on CNN cost the anchor Don Lemon his job. More

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      Mike Pence Files Paperwork to Enter 2024 Race, Challenging Trump

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      Mr. Pence, who filed paperwork declaring his candidacy, was once a stalwart supporter and defender of Donald J. Trump, but split with his former boss after the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.Former Vice President Mike Pence filed paperwork on Monday declaring his presidential candidacy, embarking on a long-shot campaign against the former president he served under, Donald J. Trump.Mr. Pence, who filed the necessary papers to run with the Federal Election Commission, has polled in the single digits in every public survey taken so far, well behind Mr. Trump, who has reshaped the Republican Party over the last seven years.The former vice president is expected to formally announce his campaign at a rally outside Des Moines on Wednesday, a day after former Gov. Chris Christie is expected to enter the race and the same day Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota is set to join.Mr. Pence is planning to campaign extensively in Iowa, the first nominating state and a place where his hard-line conservative positions on issues like abortion could appeal to evangelical voters.Advisers to Mr. Pence, a former governor of Indiana, see Iowa as geographically hospitable to the brand of conservatism he practiced before the Trump era. And he is making the bet that enough vestiges of the old Republican Party remain to give his message broad appeal.Mr. Pence, whom the celebrity-obsessed Mr. Trump used to refer to as “out of central casting,” was a stalwart supporter and defender of Mr. Trump over the latter half of the 2016 presidential campaign as his running mate, at a time when Mr. Pence was facing a difficult re-election effort in Indiana.He was Mr. Trump’s most loyal advocate throughout their time in office together.But Mr. Trump began a pressure campaign on Mr. Pence to thwart Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s Electoral College victory from being certified after Mr. Trump lost the 2020 election. Mr. Pence refused to use his ceremonial role overseeing the certification at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, to advance Mr. Trump’s aims.That day, a pro-Trump mob attacked the Capitol, with some of Mr. Trump’s supporters chanting, “Hang Mike Pence!” Since then, the split between the two has become irrevocable. More

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      Chris Sununu Says He Won’t Run for President

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      Mr. Sununu, the governor of New Hampshire, is more moderate than many members of his party and would have tested Republican voters’ appetite for a self-described “normal” candidate.Gov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire will not enter the Republican presidential race, he said on Monday, forgoing a campaign that would have tested the appetite of his party’s voters for a self-described “normal” candidate.He bowed out in an interview on CNN, saying he wanted to be able to have a more “candid, a little more unleashed voice” in the primary than he would be able to as a candidate — particularly in moving the party away from former President Donald J. Trump.“I want more independents on the Republican Party team. I want more young voters on the Republican Party team,” he said, adding, “I think more folks in the Republican Party have to have that kind of voice, that kind of emphasis of message, in making sure this is about the Republican Party, not just about the former president.”Mr. Sununu, 48, whose political mantra is “be normal,” is generally considered a moderate. Compared with other Republicans, he is — though he is in line with the rest of his party on many issues, including fiscal policy.He describes himself as a supporter of abortion rights, though he did sign a ban in 2021 on most abortions after 24 weeks’ gestation; he opposed a bill last year that could have required schools to out gay and transgender students to their parents; and he has been critical of former President Donald J. Trump, though he has said he would support Mr. Trump in a general election.“I’m conservative,” he said in February. “I’m just not an extremist.”Mr. Sununu has long been seen as a prime candidate for higher office. He is popular in New Hampshire, where voters have elected him four times — most recently by more than 15 percentage points — despite the state’s Democratic tilt. When he declined to run for Senate last year, he disappointed party leaders who considered him their best shot to unseat a Democratic incumbent, Maggie Hassan. (Ms. Hassan handily defeated the far-right Republican, Don Bolduc, who was nominated instead.)But the sort of Republican who can win in an independent-minded, blue-leaning state like New Hampshire is not the sort of Republican whom national primary voters have indicated they want. The party’s primary field has so far been dominated by Mr. Trump, and even the candidates running against him have tended not to criticize him too harshly lest they anger his base.Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, who is seen as Mr. Trump’s top Republican rival, has stepped up his attacks on Mr. Trump since entering the race last month. But to the extent that other Republicans — including Nikki Haley, a former governor of South Carolina, and Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina — have distanced themselves from Mr. Trump, they have mostly done so in style rather than in substance. More

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      Biden-Trump, the Sequel, Has Quite a Few Plot Twists

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      Bret Stephens: Hi, Gail. A recent CNN poll shows that 20 percent of Democrats favor Robert F. Kennedy Jr., for the party’s nomination, 8 percent want Marianne Williamson and another 8 percent want someone else. That’s 36 percent saying they aren’t thrilled with the presumptive nominee. Do you think this is some kind of polling fluke or an ominous political sign for Joe Biden?Gail Collins: Bret, it’s more than a year until the presidential conventions. All the Democrats know that Joe Biden is going to be their nominee. Some, like me, think he’s been doing a terrific job. Others find him pretty boring.Bret: Or “walking the trail of so-so,” as my youngest likes to say.Gail: I am absolutely sure that a lot of the people raising their hands for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or Marianne Williamson have no idea who either of them actually is. Obviously, they recognize the Kennedy name, but I’ll bet most don’t know about his new career as an anti-vaxxer.Do you disagree?Bret: I do. Neither of them is an unknown quantity. R.F.K. Jr. has been a public figure for decades, and there are plenty of dark corners of America where his anti-vax views and penchant for conspiracy theories resonate. Williamson touched a nerve — or summoned a spirit — as the “dark psychic force” lady from the last Democratic primary.Gail: By the fall, Democrats may be bored enough to want a conversation about dark psychic forces, but I think we deserve a summer break.Bret: Only 60 percent of Democrats say they support Biden. By contrast, well over 86 percent of Republicans supported Donald Trump in June of 2019, according to an earlier CNN poll. And the RealClearPolitics average of polls gives both Trump and Ron DeSantis an edge over the president, which is bad now when the economy is relatively strong but will be politically catastrophic for him if the economy dips into recession. Democrats are placing a very big bet on a stumbling incumbent; that sound you hear is me paging Roy Cooper, Jared Polis and Gretchen Whitmer.Gail: Sigh. Bret, we both agreed long ago that we hoped Biden wouldn’t run for another term, leaving the door open for all the interesting Democratic prospects to get in the race.But it didn’t happen and it isn’t going to happen. And we’re stuck with a choice between Joe Biden and a bunch of terrible Republicans.Bret: I’m still not convinced that that’s the choice we are — or need to be — stuck with: Lyndon Johnson didn’t drop out of the race until March 1968. Where is Eugene McCarthy when you need him?Gail: Biden’s doing very well — got a bunch of big initiatives passed this term, worked out a budget deal last week.Bret: Gail, who do you think gained — or suffered — the most, politically speaking, from the budget deal, Biden or Kevin McCarthy, the House speaker?Gail: Well. Biden is really having a stellar run. McCarthy was in serious danger of being tossed out of his job by members of his own party. So at least in terms of averting personal disaster, McCarthy had a pretty big win.Bret: True, and he managed to bring most of his caucus along with him. Then again, most of the “savings” McCarthy claims to have achieved with the deal achieved were basically notional.Gail: In terms of overall results, the Democrats did best. Even though I am very, very irritated about the cut in funding to the I.R.S.Bret, doesn’t it bother you that the Republicans just don’t want the tax collectors to have enough money to do their jobs?Bret: The best solution for the I.R.S. would be something like a universal 18 percent income tax for everyone, calculable on a single sheet of paper, with zero deductions or exemptions. Throwing money at the agency will do more to compound its problems than solve them.Gail: Interesting theory that’s not gonna happen. Right now, when you have folks at an agency that’s long been underfunded, trying to ride herd on businesses and wealthy individuals who have ever-more-complicated strategies for thwarting them, I don’t think the answer is to sniff and say, “Try harder.” The only thing we can be sure that the I.R.S. cut will give us is lower federal revenue from people who like avoiding taxes.Bret: Which sorta makes my point for a simplified tax code, not another $80 billion for the agency.In the meantime, Gail, the Trump-DeSantis battle of the put-downs is heating up. And Chris Christie may be getting in the race. Your thoughts on the G.O.P.’s Palio di Siena?Gail: Palio di Siena is an Italian horse race that’s known for being very crowded and very colorful, right?Bret: Also, loud, insane, scary and deadly for horses. Though maybe the better analogy for the way the Republican primary campaign is shaping up is Pamplona’s running of the bulls.Gail: Well, the Republican field is definitely getting … bigger. Colorful may take a little more work. (This week it looks like we will also be welcoming Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota to the field!)Bret: I’m probably going to destroy my credibility right now by confessing that I neither knew of the announcement nor the man until you just mentioned him. Sorry, Bismarck!Gail: I say, the more the merrier. Chris Christie would be a fine addition when it comes to making things more interesting, and I’d really love to hear him in a debate with, say, DeSantis. On the down side, he has about as much chance of winning the nomination as I would of winning that Siena horse race.Bret: Hehe.Gail: You’re in charge of the Republicans here — give me a rundown of where we are.Bret: Well, to your point about “the more the merrier,” my fear is that as more Republicans jump into the race, it just makes it easier for Trump to clear the field.On the other hand, I think that Christie has a very clear idea of what he wants to do in the race: namely, to be a torpedo aimed straight at the S.S. Trump — maybe as a form of penance for his endorsement of Trump seven years ago. Christie helped sink Marco Rubio’s candidacy at the New Hampshire debate in 2016 and he wants to do the same to The Donald in this election cycle. The former New Jersey governor is a gifted speaker, so I can only hope he succeeds.Gail: Blessings to you, Chris Christie. Unless that means pushing DeSantis permanently to the top. I know it’s weird but I’ve admitted to you I’d actually prefer Trump if that awful option is the choice.Bret: We’ve argued about this before. I can only refer you to a point made by Frank Bruni in his terrific column on this point: “I’d be distraught during a DeSantis presidency and depressed during a Pence one. But at least I might recognize the America on the far side of it.”Gail: Frank is of course great. Now about the current field — you’d like Chris Christie as a debater, but how about as an actual nominee. Your favorite of the week?Bret: Christie is everything a Democrat could reasonably want in a Republican: gregarious, pragmatic, competent, highly intelligent, capable of reaching across the aisle and most definitely not a hater. I doubt he has any kind of realistic shot at the nomination, but I also know that he’s too much of a realist to think he has a realistic shot, either. His job is to demolish Trump so that Republicans can finally get past the former president. My guess is he’d like the job of attorney general in a DeSantis administration.Enough about Republicans, Gail. What else is tickling your mind these days?Gail: Don’t suppose you want to talk about basketball playoffs, huh?Bret: Shame about the Celtics.Gail: Sigh. Well, I’ve been interested in watching the evolution of the abortion debate — even DeSantis seems to be a little wary about waving his dreadful six-week ban around.Bret: Too little too late, but yes: Even he seems to realize that the ban doesn’t go over too well with a lot of people who might lean Republican, including otherwise conservative women. The most I can say about it is that it’s very on brand for the Florida governor: abrasive, abusive and arrogant.Gail: Hey, we really can’t get away from the Republicans, can we? And the Democrats keep disappearing. Bret, did anybody besides the immediate Biden family notice that the president gave a speech to the nation on the budget deal?Bret: In 100 years, historians might be calling this the Rodney Dangerfield presidency: “I don’t get no respect!” But, honestly, I find it a little painful to watch Biden speak and I suspect a lot of people feel the same way.Gail: Painful like listening to a favorite uncle put the guests to sleep at Thanksgiving. Which is not like listening to a dreadful first cousin once removed terrify all the other relatives with a rant about family members he hates.Bret: Fair point!Gail: Bret, since we’re closing on the topic of unfortunate speeches, let me cheer you up by mentioning a really fine one. This is the part of our conversation when you usually wrap things up by describing something you’ve just read that you want to recommend. But today I get to do the finale — ha-ha — and my choice is your address to the graduates at the University of Chicago about freedom of expression. It was terrific.And the focus on civilized disagreement reminded me of how lucky I am to get to have a discussion like this with you every week.Bret: I feel just the same way. It was good to have a chance to go back to my alma mater and pay tribute to Robert Zimmer, its former president, who died last month — a role model as a leader, thinker, friend and man.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Takeaways From Nikki Haley’s CNN Town Hall

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      The former South Carolina governor, who also served as United Nations ambassador under Donald Trump, emphasized her experience and vision. Will it be enough for her to stand out?Nikki Haley, who was the first prominent Republican to announce a challenge to former President Donald J. Trump in the 2024 race, has yet to see her presidential campaign catch fire. On Sunday night, she had a fresh opportunity to make the case for her candidacy during a 90-minute CNN town hall in prime time, in an effort to emerge from the low single digits in polls where she has been mired.Ms. Haley, the former governor of South Carolina and United Nations ambassador under Mr. Trump, was well versed on policy issues, consistently upbeat and evenly tempered. Although she drew contrasts with Mr. Trump, she dodged opportunities to make him — or even President Biden — into a political punching bag.At the end of the night, an audience member praised her demeanor as “a breath of fresh air,” earning applause from the house full of Iowa Republicans. But that also meant that there were few shoot-out-the-lights moments that could win Ms. Haley headlines and a new look from primary voters, who now face a growing field of Republicans who are in — or soon to enter — the race.On policies both foreign (like Ukraine) and domestic (such as Social Security), Ms. Haley’s positions were a throwback to typical Republican Party stances before its populist takeover by Mr. Trump. Her reasoned manner was also an anomaly in a race where Mr. Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida compete with displays of dominance. Both factors have made Ms. Haley, the only woman in the Republican race, an also-ran so far.Here are some takeaways from the event on Sunday night.“I think it’s important to be honest with the American people,” Nikki Haley said on Sunday night.Jordan Gale for The New York TimesIt was very different from the Trump town hall.Compared with CNN’s explosive, much-criticized town-hall-style event with Mr. Trump last month, this one was a throwback to earlier, less combative times. There was no audience jeers whipped up from the stage and no forceful interrogation of the candidate. Jake Tapper, the anchor who moderated, asked Ms. Haley follow-up questions and added occasional clarifications to her statements, but he did not veer into fact-checking.Trump and DeSantis continue to be the focus.The two big red elephants in the room, Mr. Trump and Mr. DeSantis, were mostly mentioned indirectly, but those two Republican presidential contenders were present nonetheless. Ms. Haley repeated her position that in order to save Social Security and Medicare, it would be necessary to raise the retirement age for young workers and to limit benefits for the wealthy. Both Mr. Trump and Mr. DeSantis, who once supported similar changes, now say they won’t touch the programs.“I think it’s important to be honest with the American people,” Ms. Haley said. “We are in this situation. Don’t lie to them and say, ‘Oh, we don’t have to deal with entitlement reform.’ Yes, we do.”Ms. Haley also criticized Mr. DeSantis for his attacks on Disney as a “woke” company. She had no beef with the Florida governor’s criticism of Disney’s opposition to what critics call his “Don’t Say Gay” law, and even said she would have gone further than that law to prevent talk of gender and sexuality in schools. But she called Mr. DeSantis “hypocritical” for accepting tens of thousands of dollars in political contributions from Disney before turning on the company, and for using taxpayer dollars to sue it. “Pick up the phone deal with it,” she said. “Settle it the way you should, and I just think he’s being hypocritical.”Haley sought to find the sweet spot for Republicans on social issues.On social issues including abortion, gun restrictions and transgender rights, which animate much of the Republican voting base, Ms. Haley toed a conservative line. She defended, for example, leading the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris climate accord while at the United Nations. (President Biden rejoined the accord in 2021.) But she displayed less of the punitive rhetoric on the issues that Mr. Trump and Mr. DeSantis have made crucial to their messages.Ms. Haley deflected on whether she supported a federal six-week abortion ban such as the one her home state of South Carolina recently passed. Any national restrictions, she said, would require 60 senators to approve, which she said was so remote that the question barely merited consideration.In the most stirring moment of the night, Ms. Haley described persuading reluctant Republican lawmakers in South Carolina to remove the Confederate battle flag from the State Capitol after the massacre by a white supremacist of Black worshipers at the Mother Emanuel church in Charleston in 2015.She agreed with barring transgender girls from school sports and even seemed to suggest that allowing “biological boys” in girls’ locker rooms was connected with the high rate of teenage girls who have considered suicide.At the same time, she acknowledged that “we do need to be humane” about transgender children. In South Carolina schools when she was governor, Ms. Haley said, principals made private bathroom accommodations for them. “They were safe, and the majority of the student body didn’t even have to deal with it,” she said.Haley made a strong contrast with Trump and DeSantis on foreign policy.Ms. Haley also carved out differences with Mr. Trump and Mr. DeSantis on foreign policy issues, as she has in the past. The former U.N. ambassador disputed Mr. DeSantis, who has called Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a “territorial dispute” — a characterization he has since walked back — and she dismissed Mr. Trump’s refusal to say whether Ukraine should win the war.She said both positions represented a naïve trust in Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin. “If Ukraine pulls out,” Ms. Haley said, “then we’re all looking at a world war.”Asked by Mr. Tapper about Mr. Trump’s congratulating North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, for recently ascending to a leadership role in the World Health Organization, Ms. Haley called Mr. Kim, whose flattering letters Mr. Trump once praised, a “thug.”“There is no reason we should ever congratulate the fact that they are now vice chair of the World Health Organization,” Ms. Haley said. More

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      Chris Christie, Mike Pence and Doug Burgum to Announce for 2024 This Week

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      Chris Christie, Mike Pence and Doug Burgum are set to announce their presidential campaigns this week, the latest entrants in a rapidly growing Republican primary.The growing field of Republicans running for president is set to expand by three this week, with the entry of former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, former Vice President Mike Pence and Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota. The field continues to expand in part because hopefuls see opportunity in the struggle of Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida to become the undisputed challenger to former President Donald J. Trump.Mr. DeSantis trails Mr. Trump by about 30 points in national polls of Republican voters. No one else is within hailing distance, but with one in four Republicans still looking for an alternative to the two front-runners, a fierce competition to be that other option is emerging.All three of the latest entrants have to be considered long shots, at least for now.But each will get a momentary burst of attention when declaring his candidacy, with the hope that from small sparks a brush fire will spread.Chris ChristieWhen: Tuesday, June 6Where: A town-hall-style event at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics outside Manchester.The strategy: Mr. Christie, who dropped out of the 2016 primary early and became a supporter of Mr. Trump’s, has cast himself as the former president’s harshest critic in the Republican field. He says Mr. Trump is unfit to serve after inciting the attack on the Capitol. Mr. Christie’s team recently said that he would run a campaign focused on “mixing it up in the news cycle and engaging Trump.”But being an outspoken Trump critic has so far paid little dividends. Among 10 declared or potential 2024 candidates tested in a Monmouth poll last week, Mr. Christie was viewed the most negatively by Republican voters (21 percent viewed him favorably and 47 percent unfavorably). His strategy is to make it onto a debate stage, where his trademark pugilism, he has promised, will be aimed at Mr. Trump.Mr. Christie is likely to campaign heavily in New Hampshire, where a large number of independents are expected to vote in the primary next year, offering Mr. Christie his best opportunity to damage Mr. Trump.Mike PenceWhen: Wednesday, June 7Where: A rally with voters in Des Moines, followed by a CNN town hall at 9 p.m. Eastern.The strategy: The former vice president brought credibility with social conservatives to the 2016 ticket, but his star faded with the party base after he refused to comply with Mr. Trump’s efforts to block President Biden’s victory. As an evangelical Christian and former Indiana governor, Mr. Pence is a natural fit with Iowa conservatives, and he is likely to focus much of his campaigning there in the hope of a strong showing in the first nominating contest next year. His campaign intends to reintroduce him to voters as his own man, not just Mr. Trump’s No. 2.But Mr. Pence, who espouses traditional Regeanesque views on economic and foreign policy — he supports aid to Ukraine — finds himself at odds with the current populist thrust of the party. In the Monmouth poll, he had the second highest unfavorable number (35 percent, versus 46 percent favorable). When Sean Hannity of Fox News mentioned at a town hall with Mr. Trump on Thursday that Mr. Pence would soon join the race, there were boos.Doug BurgumWhen: Wednesday, June 7Where: Fargo, N.D.The strategy: North Dakota’s governor, who is little-known outside his home state, made a large fortune in computer software, and is in a position to self-fund his longer-than-long-shot campaign. He has said he believes that 60 percent of American voters constitute a “silent majority” that feels ignored by intense ideological debates that dominate politics. “There’s definitely a yearning for some alternatives right now,’’ Mr. Burgum told a Fargo news site.Energy policy is central to his message: As governor, Mr. Burgum set a goal of reaching carbon neutrality in North Dakota by 2030. He aimed to do so not by diminishing dependence on fossil fuels, a key part of the state’s economy, but by accelerating technology to capture carbon emissions in the ground.The governor is low-key and notably not aligned with Trump-style populism. That means that, in addition to being little known, he will be paddling against the current in today’s Republican rapids. More