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      What to Know About New York’s Midterm Elections

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      The state has become a bellwether for both parties, with significant congressional seats in play and an increasingly close governor’s race.After a hectic primary season, New Yorkers will now head to the polls to decide contests that will have consequences for both state and national politics.With Democrats looking to hold onto their slim majority in Congress and Republicans eager to take control, New York has become a key battleground with more competitive congressional races than nearly any other state.Voters in New York are also facing choices in four statewide races, including a marquee contest for governor, with Gov. Kathy Hochul seeking election to her first full term in office after she succeeded Andrew M. Cuomo 14 months ago. Her race against Representative Lee Zeldin, the Republican challenger, has appeared increasingly close as Election Day nears.When and where to voteThe early voting period begins on Saturday, Oct. 29, and ends Sunday, Nov. 6. Operating hours vary based on county and polling location.You can also vote on Election Day — Tuesday, Nov. 8 — when polls will be open from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m.In many cases, early voting locations will be different than your designated Election Day polling site. You can find either by entering your name and address at voterlookup.elections.ny.gov, a State Board of Elections website. If you live in New York City, you can also call 1-866-VOTE-NYC.Voters who encounter any difficulties can call the attorney general’s election protection hotline at 1-866-390-2992.Absentee votingThe deadline for requesting an absentee ballot online has already passed, but voters can still apply for one at their local county Board of Elections office until Monday, Nov. 7.Ballots must be returned by mail, with a postmark no later than Nov. 8, or in person at a polling site or a county Board of Elections office by 9 p.m. that day.If voters have requested to vote by absentee ballot, they cannot cast a ballot on a voting machine. They can still vote in person during the early voting period or on Election Day by using an affidavit ballot. That affidavit will only be counted if the voter’s absentee ballot has not been received.It starts at the topPolls suggest that the governor’s race between Gov. Kathy Hochul, left, and Representative Lee Zeldin has drawn closer.Hans Pennink/Associated Press, Justin Lane/EPA, via ShutterstockAt the top of the ballot is the race for governor, a contest in which Republicans have traditionally faced long odds: No Republican has been elected to statewide office in 20 years.Ms. Hochul, a Buffalo-area Democrat, became the first woman to serve as New York’s governor last year when she replaced Mr. Cuomo after his resignation.In a state where Democrats far outnumber Republicans, Ms. Hochul entered the race with a significant advantage. She dominated her primary election and has a significant fund-raising lead over Mr. Zeldin. For months, she has harped on Mr. Zeldin’s close ties to former President Donald J. Trump, who is unpopular in New York. She has also warned that Mr. Zeldin would roll back abortion rights in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.But polls in recent weeks have shown Ms. Hochul’s initial lead over Mr. Zeldin — a Republican congressman who has represented eastern Long Island since 2015 — narrowing to the single digits. Recent surveys have found that fears about public safety and inflation have become the chief concerns of likely voters, and Mr. Zeldin has made those issues — and crime in particular — the focal points of his campaign.Mr. Zeldin has cast his campaign as a crusade against one-party rule in the state and sought to draw support from moderate and independent voters who are eager for change..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.Political experts say that turnout will likely be a major factor in the race’s outcome, especially with Democrats facing a tough environment nationally. Ms. Hochul must draw a significant base of support from New York’s liberal enclaves, while Mr. Zeldin is hoping to lure swing voters for whom crime and the economy are motivating issues.House racesIn Democrats’ mission to maintain control of the House of Representatives, New York was regarded as a party bulwark. But after an erratic redistricting process that ended earlier this year, political analysts now say that Republicans may be poised to flip a handful of Democratic seats.Of particular interest are three districts in the Hudson Valley currently represented by Democrats. While the party has picked up support in the area in recent years, Republicans are hoping to seize on discontent with President Biden and his party.In the 17th Congressional District, which includes Poughkeepsie and exurban areas in Putnam, Rockland and Westchester Counties, Representative Sean Patrick Maloney, who leads the House Democrats’ campaign committee, is facing a strong challenge from Mike Lawler, a Republican assemblyman.Mr. Lawler has garnered millions of dollars in outside help from Republicans, who have spent the money on ads that blame Democrats for inflation and the rising cost of gasoline. He has also pointed to fears over public safety.Democrats, too, have spent heavily on the airwaves, focusing their messaging on abortion rights and concerns about Republican attacks on election integrity. Mr. Maloney has sought to link Mr. Lawler to Mr. Trump, who lost the 17th District by 10 percentage points.The battle lines are roughly the same in the neighboring 18th District, where Representative Pat Ryan, who won a special House election in August, is facing a challenge from Colin Schmitt, a Republican assemblyman.In the 19th District, Marcus Molinaro, a Republican county executive who lost to Mr. Ryan, is running against Josh Riley, a lawyer and first-time candidate who has spent much of his professional career outside the state.Republicans are also hoping to make pickups in Long Island, where three of the region’s four House seats are open after incumbents stepped aside. Democrats currently hold the two districts that mostly represent Nassau County, which borders New York City, while the two districts further east in Suffolk County are held by Republicans.In the Fourth District, in central and southern Nassau County, candidates are running to replace Representative Kathleen Rice, a Democrat who is retiring at the end of the year. Anthony D’Esposito, a Republican town councilman and a former New York City police detective, is facing Laura Gillen, a Democrat and a former town supervisor.In the Third District, to the north, Robert Zimmerman, a small-business owner and well-known Democratic activist, wants to fill the seat currently held by Representative Tom Suozzi. Mr. Zimmerman has repeatedly attacked his Republican opponent, George Santos, as being too extreme for the district, pointing to Mr. Santos’s support of abortion bans and his attendance at the pro-Trump rally in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021.In the Second District, an affluent region on the South Shore of Long Island, Representative Andrew Garbarino, a Republican, is heavily favored to win re-election against his Democratic challenger, Jackie Gordon, an Army veteran whom he defeated in 2020.A contest for another open seat lies in the First District, which Mr. Zeldin has held since 2014 but gave up to run for governor. The Democratic candidate, Bridget Fleming, a county legislator and former assistant district attorney, has a significant fund-raising lead and was endorsed by a police officers union. Her Republican opponent, Nicholas LaLota, is a former Navy lieutenant who works in the Suffolk County Legislature, and has focused his campaign on rising prices and interest rates.In New York City, Democrats are also to eager to regain the 11th Congressional District, which encompasses Staten Island and parts of southwest Brooklyn. The race there is a rematch between Representative Nicole Malliotakis, the Republican who won two years ago, and Max Rose, the Democrat who flipped what had been a conservative stronghold in 2018.Both parties are also eyeing the 22nd Congressional District in the Syracuse area, where Democrats have sought a seat for years. They grew hopeful after redistricting shifted the district’s borders to include areas currently held by Representative John Katko, a moderate Republican who is retiring.The Republican in the race, Brandon Williams, is a Trump-aligned first-time candidate who had never lived in the district. He won his party’s nomination over a preferred candidate backed by super PACs aligned with Republican leaders. The Democrat, Francis Conole, has attacked Mr. Wiliams for being too far to the right, and has argued that his own views are closer to those of his potential constituents.What else is on the ballot?In there other statewide races, incumbent Democrats are heavily favored. Senator Chuck Schumer, currently the majority leader, is running for his fifth term. His opponent, Joe Pinion, is a Republican who grew up in Yonkers and until recently hosted a show on the right-wing news network Newsmax.The New York attorney general, Letitia James, is also running for re-election after suspending her campaign for governor last year. Her Republican opponent is Michael Henry, who works as a lawyer in New York City. The state comptroller, Thomas DiNapoli, faces a Republican challenger, Paul Rodriguez, an investor.State Senate and Assembly seats are on the ballot as well. Voters will also decide whether to approve the Environmental Bond Act of 2022, which would allow New York to borrow up to $4.2 billion, through a bond issuance, for projects related to climate change, clean energy and environmental protection.City residents will vote on three other proposals: one to add a “statement of values” to the City Charter that emphasizes the government’s commitment to “justice and equity”; one to create a racial equity office and require citywide plans to address racial equity; and one to change the way the city calculates the cost of living. More

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      Obama to Georgia Democrats: ‘Resist the Temptation to Give Up’

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      ATLANTA — Former President Barack Obama implored Georgia Democrats not to “tune out” politics and to “resist the temptation to give up,” as he tried to energize his party’s most loyal voters in a state that could decide control of the U.S. Senate. Speaking to a crowd of several thousand, Mr. Obama noted the many issues that may be dampening voter enthusiasm — inflation, rising crime and the war in Ukraine — making little mention that those ills have happened while his party controls Washington. But he cast the midterm elections as a fight not over policy differences, but the health of democracy. “I get why you might be worried. I understand why it might be tempting sometimes to tune out,” Mr. Obama said. “But I’m here to tell you that tuning out is not an option.” His speech, a mix of his familiar applause lines and new warnings about threats to democratic norms, aimed to boost Democratic candidates in the state even as their party has suffered low approval ratings nationwide. He presented Democrats as the best alternative to Republican lawmakers, a group that he said is “not interested in actually solving problems.” Mr. Obama was especially pointed in his criticism of Herschel Walker, a former University of Georgia football star and the Republican challenger to the state’s senator, Raphael Warnock. Mr. Walker, Mr. Obama said, is “a celebrity who wants to be a politician.” Mr. Walker’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Mr. Obama’s remarks.Mr. Obama arrived as the campaign enters the final stretch and Democrats are desperate to fire up their base, especially Black voters who have struggled with inflation and rising crime but have been left cold by the Biden administration. His stop in College Park, outside Atlanta, was the first of five events he is planning in coming days. He is due in Michigan and Wisconsin on Saturday, then Nevada and Pennsylvania next week — all states with close Senate races. Mr. Obama, at times, acknowledged voters’ fatigue and hardly mentioned President Biden, his former vice president. “Joe is fighting for you every day. He’s got your back. He’s doing everything he can to put more money in your pockets,” he said. Georgia Democrats have pointed to sky-high early voting figures as a sign of strength heading into Election Day. Nearly 1.3 million voters have cast ballots in the state, with the strongest performances coming from older Black voters and those in the deep-blue metro Atlanta counties of Fulton and DeKalb, according to data from the secretary of state’s office.But all signs point to strong turnout on both sides, with Republican voters poised to pour into polling places on Election Day. Mr. Biden’s approval ratings remain low, standing last month at an abysmal 37 percent in an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll. And while key portions of the Democratic base have turned out en masse, Democrats will still need to outperform with voters under 30 and women in the Atlanta suburbs to find success in November.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsElection Day is Tuesday, Nov. 8.Bracing for a Red Wave: Republicans were already favored to flip the House. Now they are looking to run up the score by vying for seats in deep-blue states.Pennsylvania Senate Race: The debate performance by Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who is still recovering from a stroke, has thrust questions of health to the center of the pivotal race and raised Democratic anxieties.G.O.P. Inflation Plans: Republicans are riding a wave of anger over inflation as they seek to recapture Congress, but few economists expect their proposals to bring down rising prices.Polling Analysis: If these poll results keep up, everything from a Democratic hold in the Senate and a narrow House majority to a total G.O.P. rout becomes imaginable, writes Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst.“I look at the early vote numbers in Georgia, and see them as certainly positive news for Democrats,” said Tom Bonier, chief executive of the Democratic polling firm TargetSmart, which is working for the Abrams campaign. “But I think it’s also something that shows the work that needs to be done.”Friday’s rally was billed as an event for Georgia’s entire Democratic ticket. But two of its candidates took center stage: Stacey Abrams, the Democratic nominee for governor who is challenging Gov. Brian Kemp, a Republican, in a rematch, and Mr. Warnock. Ms. Abrams’ campaign has been particularly focused on winning over Black men, whose votes are also vital to Mr. Warnock if he is to defeat Mr. Walker. Black voters could also make the difference elsewhere, especially in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, where lagging turnout from voters of color helped Donald J. Trump secure narrow victories.“I think we’re going to see Black voters step up to the plate,” said Quentin James, president and co-founder of The Collective, a political action committee devoted to electing Black Democrats. “But you can’t divorce that from the reality that the country hasn’t always stood up for Black voters.”At a Democratic event called Georgia Black Men Call to Action, audience members listened to a speech by Stacey Abrams.Gabriela Bhaskar for The New York TimesMr. Obama tried to cast the election as dire moment for the country, pointing to Republicans’ questioning of the results of the 2020 election. Democratic candidates, he said, are a bulwark against Republican candidates who are running on a platform of election denial. “If they win, there’s no telling what would happen,” he said. Jameelah Gray, 32, after voting early at Morehouse College in Atlanta. All signs point to strong turnout on both sides in Georgia.Gabriela Bhaskar for The New York TimesThe former president’s earlier forays into midterm battlegrounds were anything but resounding successes. In 2010, he crisscrossed the country trying to rally voters — especially young voters — by telling them that Republicans had driven the economy into a ditch and Democrats had pulled it out. Unimpressed, the electorate responded with what he called a “shellacking,” handing Republicans a 68-seat gain in the House, the largest since 1948, along with seven seats in the Senate and six additional governorships.In 2014, Republicans netted nine Senate seats, cementing control of Congress for Mr. Obama’s final two years in office.Out of office, however, Mr. Obama is arguably a more popular Democratic figure than the current president — or any other Democratic leader, for that matter.“There’s nostalgia for the Obama era with a lot of swing voters,” said Tim Phillips, a Republican strategist and former president of Americans for Prosperity, a conservative political organization funded by the Koch family. “I think he’s their best spokesperson.”For his part, Mr. Biden has been a low-key presence on the campaign trail, avoiding large rallies altogether. On Friday night, he spoke at a Democratic dinner in Pennsylvania, where he celebrated Democrats’ legislative wins and railed against both Republican policies and candidates. Mr. James argued that Mr. Biden’s scarcity on the campaign trail was not really about Black voters, saying Mr. Biden was even less popular with white voters. By contrast, he said, African Americans remained deeply connected to the first and only Black president, who drew the highest turnout of Black voters in history.“Obama’s going to ramp up urgency,” he said, “not just for voting but for voting early. It will be a call to action.”The political environment for Democrats is far more uncertain than it was in either of the Obama midterms. Unemployment is low and the economy is growing, but Americans are confronting the worst inflation the nation has seen in 40 years, which is driving up interest rates and clawing back any sense of income gains as the pandemic recedes.On the other hand, the Supreme Court’s repeal of abortion rights and the looming presence of Mr. Trump are energizing the Democratic base in ways that Mr. Obama did not experience in his years in office.“Presidents look better in the rear-view mirror,” said Mo Elleithee, who was a senior official at the Democratic National Committee during the drubbing the party took in 2014.With little more than a week to go, Democrats are bracing for either a significant Republican wave that hands control of both the House and Senate to the Republican Party, or a split decision, with Democrats retaining control of a tightly divided Senate and Republicans squeaking out a narrow majority in the House.Developments in key races have only heightened Democratic anxieties. Lt. Gov. John Fetterman’s halting debate performance against Dr. Mehmet Oz, a Republican, spotlighted the effect Mr. Fetterman’s stroke had had on his ability to communicate and frayed the nerves of Pennsylvania Democrats.The Republicans’ main super PAC resumed advertising on television in New Hampshire, convinced that the race between Senator Maggie Hassan and her Republican challenger, Don Bolduc, had tightened. And prognosticators moved the Arizona contest between Senator Mark Kelly and his Republican challenger, Blake Masters, back to a tossup.Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, in Syracuse on Thursday, was recorded expressing his concerns to President Biden about where Democrats stood in Senate contests.Kenny Holston for The New York TimesPerhaps most exasperating to Democrats is the Senate race in Georgia, where a second woman this week accused Mr. Walker of having paid for her to have an abortion. Mr. Walker has denied both women’s claims.Caught on a hot microphone on Thursday, Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the majority leader, was heard telling Mr. Biden, “The state where we’re going downhill is Georgia. It’s hard to believe that they will go for Herschel Walker.” On Friday night the Walker campaign pointed to remarks the candidate made earlier in the day where he said “Unlike Raphael Warnock I’m not a politician. I’m a warrior for God.”Jessica Taylor, the Senate analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said, “It really does feel like there is a lot of movement in these races.” She still rates control of the Senate a tossup, but, she added, “If this is a wave, you could see others swept away,” like Senator Michael Bennet, Democrat of Colorado.On the other hand, recent polling has tantalized Democrats in Iowa, where Senator Charles E. Grassley, a Republican, is seeking another six-year term at age 89; in North Carolina, where the Democratic nominee for the Senate, Cheri Beasley, remains knotted with her Republican opponent, Ted Budd; and even in Utah, where Senator Mike Lee, a Republican, is facing an unexpectedly strong challenge from an independent, the former C.I.A. officer Evan McMullin.“This is the trickiest midterm environment I’ve seen in a long time,” said Steve Israel, a former House member from New York who once headed the House Democrats’ campaign arm.Maya King reported from Atlanta and Jonathan Weisman from Chicago. More

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      Oz Struggles to Woo Black Philadelphians in Senate Race

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      PHILADELPHIA — Back in July, Dr. Mehmet Oz paid a campaign visit to Mike Monroe’s barbershop in West Philadelphia.“Shop has been empty ever since,” Mr. Monroe joked the other day, as he buzzed the head of a customer in a gold-painted chair in his spacious business, ESPM Hair Zone.Dr. Oz’s visit was part of the Republican’s attempt to reach Black voters in Pennsylvania’s most Democratic city as he runs for the Senate. The issues that he invariably highlights during his campaign stops in Philadelphia — the fentanyl epidemic, a grim homicide toll and street crime — are also top worries for Mr. Monroe, who enlists other barbers to mentor young Black men to stop gun violence.But Mr. Monroe said he would most likely vote for Dr. Oz’s Democratic opponent, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman. “I think everybody around here will vote for Fetterman,” he said.Philadelphia’s Black voters, who are historically deeply loyal to Democrats, are increasingly crucial to the Fetterman campaign, as polls show the Senate race in a statistical tie, and following Tuesday’s debate between the two candidates. Mr. Fetterman, who is recovering from a stroke, often struggled in the debate to express himself clearly, injecting unpredictability into the race and raising the stakes for Mr. Fetterman to turn out core Democrats.Despite Dr. Oz’s multiple campaign visits to Philadelphia — and millions of dollars in Republican TV ads attacking Mr. Fetterman as soft on crime — interviews with Black voters in Philadelphia, as well as Black elected Democratic officials and strategists, suggested support for Dr. Oz among African Americans remained small.Nor has a Republican attack ad about a 2013 episode in which Mr. Fetterman, as the mayor of Braddock, Pa., stopped a Black jogger using a shotgun, seemed to have landed with many Philadelphia voters. Few Black voters interviewed were aware of the episode. In the debate, Mr. Fetterman said he made “a split-second decision” as “the chief law enforcement officer” of Braddock.“We see this every cycle, folks who clearly don’t have policy interests in the Black community, like Oz, will come in to show up and try to siphon” off voters, said State Senator Vincent Hughes, a Democrat who represents West Philadelphia. “They’re trying to get a point here, a point there, and cut into a base of votes that historically has been solidly Democratic — for good reasons.”Nonetheless, the Fetterman campaign faces the challenge of motivating Black voters to turn out in an election climate when inflation is squeezing Americans and when many Black voters, especially young people, feel that the Biden administration has not delivered on its promises.“I think everybody around here will vote for Fetterman,” said Mike Monroe, cutting hair recently at his Philadelphia barbershop.Hannah Beier for The New York TimesCassandra McIntosh, 27, voted for Mr. Biden in 2020. But she said “he’s not doing enough,” and plans to skip this year’s election. The mother of a 5-year-old and an 8-year-old, Ms. McIntosh was shopping recently on 52nd Street, a West Philadelphia commercial corridor.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsElection Day is Tuesday, Nov. 8.Bracing for a Red Wave: Republicans were already favored to flip the House. Now they are looking to run up the score by vying for seats in deep-blue states.Pennsylvania Senate Race: The debate performance by Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who is still recovering from a stroke, has thrust questions of health to the center of the pivotal race and raised Democratic anxieties.G.O.P. Inflation Plans: Republicans are riding a wave of anger over inflation as they seek to recapture Congress, but few economists expect their proposals to bring down rising prices.Polling Analysis: If these poll results keep up, everything from a Democratic hold in the Senate and a narrow House majority to a total G.O.P. rout becomes imaginable, writes Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst.She mentioned Mr. Fetterman “letting prisoners out of jail,” a reference to his chairmanship of the state Board of Pardons, a ubiquitous target in Republican attack ads. Of Dr. Oz, she added, “I don’t want to vote for him either too much.”In 2020, President Biden’s support in some majority-Black wards in Philadelphia was as high as 97 percent, exceeding the 92 percent of Black votes he won nationally. But a hoped-for turnout surge by African Americans in the city did not materialize. Mr. Biden’s narrow victory in Pennsylvania largely relied on his blowout margins in the suburbs, where former President Donald J. Trump was toxic for many voters.Mr. Fetterman faces a related challenge in 2022.If Dr. Oz can improve on Mr. Trump’s suburban margins — a possibility without the former president on the ballot — Mr. Fetterman will have to compensate by drawing an even higher turnout than usual for a midterm, both in Philadelphia and in rural counties.“It’s absolutely critical,” Joe Pierce, Mr. Fetterman’s statewide political director, said of Philadelphia’s Black vote. “We need Black voter turnout. We need it in high numbers.”State Representative Malcolm Kenyatta, a Democrat from the city, said he had three words for the Fetterman campaign: “‘Philadelphia’ and ‘Black voters.’”“These are voters who are not voting for Dr. Oz, let me be very clear,” Mr. Kenyatta said on a liberal podcast, The Wilderness. “But the question is, are they going to stay home just because they’re frustrated? And I hear that frustration every single day.”In interviews, he and other Democratic officials and strategists said Dr. Oz’s regular refrain about violent crime in Philadelphia — where homicides are on track to exceed 2021’s record 561 killings — ring hollow with Black voters, because he has failed to support meaningful solutions. Democrats favor stronger gun safety laws, public investments in schools and housing, and a higher minimum wage..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.Last week, Dr. Oz released an anti-crime plan that includes stiffer penalties for carjacking and illegal guns, maintaining cash bail and securing “every inch” of the Southwest border.A Black G.O.P. leader in Philadelphia, Calvin Tucker, predicted that Dr. Oz would do well in the city. “He’s going into barbershops,” he said. “He’s walked some of the commercial business corridors in the African American community — I believe he’s touching people at the local level.”Democrats said the real audience for Dr. Oz’s highlighting of crime in Philadelphia — including a stroll with TV cameras through a notorious neighborhood of open opioid use — were voters outside the city.“It’s about how to get certain suburban white women to be so scared of the boogeyman that they vote for the Republican,” said Kellan White, a Democratic strategist in Philadelphia, who is African American. “I don’t think my grandmother is motivated by this.”Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, campaigning last week in Harmony, Pa.Jared Wickerham for The New York TimesDr. Oz’s outreach to Black Philadelphians comes with a made-for-TV polish, reminiscent of the long-running “Dr. Oz Show” he hosted. At an anti-crime event in South Philadelphia, billed as a “community discussion,” he called on speakers from among an invited audience of 30. The audience surrounded the candidate on three sides and faced a media contingent as numerous as the guests.A Black pastor said it was easier to buy fentanyl than baby formula on many blocks. A white woman from outside the city said her husband “gave me one rule: Do not go to Philadelphia by yourself.” Dr. Oz lamented an epidemic of “crime and drugs that are creating lawlessness in the southeast of Pennsylvania.”Several of the Black speakers had participated in a similar forum a month earlier in Northwest Philadelphia. That event included a poignant account by a woman recalling a brother and a nephew who had been gunned down in the city, eliciting a hug from Dr. Oz. But the woman turned out to be a paid campaign employee, a detail that was not disclosed at the time.Media outlets reported how Dr. Oz asked the woman, Sheila Armstrong, “How do you cope?” Her identity was later flagged by the Fetterman campaign and reported by The Intercept.Earlier this year, the Republican National Committee opened with fanfare a field office in Northwest Philadelphia to reach Black voters. On the day Dr. Oz was in South Philadelphia, the center was locked tight and unoccupied. Workers at a pizzeria and a hair salon across the street said they had not seen any activity there in weeks. Republican National Committee officials did not respond to several requests for comment asking about the office.The day after Dr. Oz’s latest foray to the city, Glorice Bervine, 72, who was shopping on 52nd Street, said she does not usually vote in midterms but will this year. “I don’t want to see those two turkeys in office,” she said, referring to both Dr. Oz and Doug Mastriano, the Republican nominee for governor.Ms. Bervine, who works in retailing, lives in Kensington, the neighborhood that Dr. Oz had visited to witness open drug use, picking a needle off the ground to show to TV cameras.“Excuse me, coming down when you’re running for office does not equate you being there for the people,” Ms. Bervine said. “He’s not going to do a damn thing about it — what he wants is votes.”Dr. Oz at a discussion this month on crime and policing in Philadelphia.Hannah Beier for The New York TimesNor was Ms. Bervine swayed by attack ads aimed at Mr. Fetterman’s advocacy for clemency for long-incarcerated men. “I know enough to know that there are a lot of men that are in prison that shouldn’t be in prison,” she said.That was a common point of view on 52nd Street, a formerly grand corridor of Black entertainment and commerce that has struggled in recent years. Some businesses were damaged during unrest in 2020 over police shootings of Black people nationally. Banners fixed to lamp posts urge, “Never Lose Hope.”On the sidewalk outside a secondhand appliance store, Barry Williams, 67, was cleaning a stove with steel wool.A homeowner, he was concerned about rising costs — “the food taxes, the property tax, gas — first it went down, then it went right back up again.”But Mr. Williams, who said he was a Democrat who voted regularly, pushed back on the Republican message that inflation was tied to Democratic policies in Washington. “I think it’s everybody’s fault,” he said. “I can’t blame it on the Democrats.”Desean Prosser was registering voters on the street, clipboard in hand. He was the only person interviewed who brought up the episode in which Mr. Fetterman stopped the Black jogger in 2013, shotgun in hand. Mr. Fetterman has said he acted spontaneously after hearing gunshots; the jogger turned out to be unarmed.“It should be” an issue, Mr. Prosser said. “It would be for me.”“Oz has got a shot because he’s not a politician,” Mr. Prosser said. “Just like Donald Trump, we’re willing to give somebody who’s not a politician a chance.”Yasmin Jones, who wore a crystal-beaded face mask, said she was a straight-ticket Democratic voter and planned to cast a ballot this year. “Maybe my vote might make a difference,” she said.Ms. Jones did not know a lot about either candidate. “What is Dr. Oz going for?” she asked. Told it was the Senate, she replied, making a reference to his career as a TV doctor: “He shouldn’t try to do that. He should stay in his lane.” More

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      Liz Cheney’s PAC to Run Ad Against Lake and Finchem, Both Republicans, in Arizona

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      A leadership PAC sponsored by Representative Liz Cheney, Republican of Wyoming, announced on Friday a $500,000 media buy in Arizona, where it will air a television spot urging voters to reject Kari Lake, the Republican running for governor, and Mark Finchem, the party’s nominee for secretary of state.“I don’t know that I’ve ever voted for a Democrat, but if I lived in Arizona, I absolutely would,” Ms. Cheney says in the ad. “If you care about the survival of our republic, you cannot give people power who will not honor elections.”Ms. Lake and Mr. Finchem have both run campaigns amplifying former President Donald J. Trump’s false claim that the 2020 election was stolen.Ms. Cheney, vice chair of the panel investigating Mr. Trump’s involvement in the Jan. 6 Capitol attack, lost her August primary in a landslide to Harriet Hageman, a Trump-backed challenger. While her future political plans remain vague, for now, she has said she plans to focus her efforts on blocking Mr. Trump from returning to power.Ms. Cheney has previously singled out Ms. Lake as an election denier whom she planned to campaign against. “I’m going to do everything I can to make sure Kari Lake is not elected,” Ms. Cheney said at the Texas Tribune Festival last month.The move is in line with Ms. Cheney’s efforts to keep election deniers out of office.She also endorsed Representative Elissa Slotkin, Democrat of Michigan, in a competitive race against Tom Barrett, a Republican state senator and 2020 election denier who has refused to say whether he would respect the results of the 2022 midterm elections.Ms. Cheney, who is arguably the most vocal critic of Mr. Trump in the Republican Party, has fielded dozens of endorsement requests from Democratic candidates, but the nod to Ms. Slotkin is her first of the midterm cycle. The race in Michigan’s seventh district is considered a tossup and is one of the Republican Party’s top targets as it seeks to win back the majority in the House.“I’m proud to endorse Elissa Slotkin,” Ms. Cheney, who served with Ms. Slotkin on the Armed Services Committee, said in a statement on Thursday. Ms. Slotkin also served in the Bush administration when Ms. Cheney worked at the State Department.“While Elissa and I have our policy disagreements, at a time when our nation is facing threats at home and abroad, we need serious, responsible, substantive members like Elissa in Congress,” Ms. Cheney said, encouraging Republicans and independents, as well as Democrats, to support her.Ms. Cheney is scheduled to campaign with Ms. Slotkin in Michigan on Nov. 1 at an event billed as an “evening for patriotism and bipartisanship.” More

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      How Talk Radio Unites Ron Johnson and His Wisconsin Voters

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      MILWAUKEE — Other senators spend countless hours promoting their political messages and personal brands on cable news and social media.Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin simply calls up a receptive talk radio host — and then another, and then another.Since the beginning of this year, Mr. Johnson has made at least 325 appearances on talk radio shows, including 186 hits in Wisconsin. In the Senate, he has spent about four and a half hours speaking in committees and floor speeches. On the radio, listening to all of his appearances would take more than four full days.It is a staggering investment of time by a United States senator. And it is paying off.Long thought to be this year’s most endangered Republican in the chamber because of his low approval ratings, Mr. Johnson has opened up a lead in the polls over his Democratic challenger, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes. Democrats would dearly love for Mr. Barnes to win, both because Senate control could hang on the race and because Mr. Johnson, one of the nation’s leading purveyors of misinformation, has been the bane of Wisconsin liberals’ existence for a dozen years.But they are finding that it’s not so easy to oust Mr. Johnson, an analog creature in the modern digital world, whose political resilience stems in great part from an omnipresence on the radio airwaves that has made him nearly as much a fixture of Wisconsin as cheese curds, beer and the Green Bay Packers.Mr. Johnson, 67, has refined an old-school playbook of communicating with Republican base voters who listen to hours of conservative talk radio a week, a function of the medium’s unique power in Wisconsin’s media environment and of his own political upbringing as a figure endorsed and promoted by the state’s leading right-wing talkers.Radio-bred reality is quick to spread through Republican politics in Wisconsin.Taylor Glascock for The New York Times“Were it not for talk radio, I don’t think conservatism would have a chance,” Mr. Johnson said.Jamie Kelter Davis for The New York TimesThe time on the radio serves as a direct line to Mr. Johnson’s political base. Hosts who share his worldview rarely challenge him on conservative talking points about elections, public health or his past statements. Listening on the other end is a large, devoted audience that has little trust in the state’s shrinking newspapers and television stations.“Talk radio is crucial to the conservative movement, because we don’t have the mainstream media on our side,” Mr. Johnson said in a recent interview. “Were it not for talk radio, I don’t think conservatism would have a chance. We’d be overwhelmed by the liberal media.”That radio-bred reality is quick to spread through Republican politics here. Republican elected officials on the receiving end of anger on talk radio will hear about it quickly — and most soon find a way back into the hosts’ good graces.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsElection Day is Tuesday, Nov. 8.Bracing for a Red Wave: Republicans were already favored to flip the House. Now they are looking to run up the score by vying for seats in deep-blue states.Pennsylvania Senate Race: The debate performance by Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who is still recovering from a stroke, has thrust questions of health to the center of the pivotal race and raised Democratic anxieties.G.O.P. Inflation Plans: Republicans are riding a wave of anger over inflation as they seek to recapture Congress, but few economists expect their proposals to bring down rising prices.Polling Analysis: If these poll results keep up, everything from a Democratic hold in the Senate and a narrow House majority to a total G.O.P. rout becomes imaginable, writes Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst.“You can pick any issue you want, but whatever the hot topic on talk radio is, you’ll hear it come up,” said Mayor Rohn Bishop of Waupun, Wis., who until last year was the chairman of the Republican Party in Fond du Lac County.Listening to Mr. Johnson on Wisconsin’s radio airwaves can serve as a tour into a universe in which the state’s Democrats are constantly scheming to steal elections; the F.B.I. is out to get the senator; and Mr. Barnes, his Democratic opponent, is an anti-American zealot who “thinks our national parks are racist” — an accusation Mr. Johnson made more than a dozen times in September alone.Other conspiracy theories and misinformation abound. Since the beginning of September, he has claimed the F.B.I. tried to rig the 2016 election for Hillary Clinton, then “not only corrupted the 2020 election, they’re corrupting the 2022 election.” He has promoted hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for Covid and has suggested that Democrats planned the Capitol riot.Mr. Johnson on Capitol Hill this year with Ted Cruz, a far more digitally inclined Republican senator.Michael A. McCoy for The New York TimesIn the interview, Mr. Johnson said he made no apologies for any of his statements that have departed from the truth.“Everything I’ve been saying is proven out to be true,” he said. “There’s not one thing that I’ve said about Covid that wasn’t true, including gargling.”The senator was referring to a comment he made at a town-hall meeting in December suggesting that a “standard gargle, mouthwash, has been proven to kill the coronavirus.” Afterward, he defended his stance on a tour of local radio shows. In the recent interview with The New York Times, Mr. Johnson offered to provide evidence that he was right. So far, he has not done so..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.Wisconsin Democrats long ago decided not to make Mr. Johnson’s false assertions the focus of their campaign to unseat him. In part, that’s because he has been making them for so long that they have become part of the firmament of the state’s politics.“In a rural state, people are listening to this,” said Representative Mark Pocan, a Democrat from Madison who has spent years sparring with Mr. Johnson. “Those no longer become viewpoints. They become facts and they become repeated facts and they’re part of allegedly what’s reality here.”The shows have attracted a legion of loyal listeners across Wisconsin, though the public Nielsen radio station ratings do not report how many people are tuned in at specific times. Mr. Johnson appears on shows throughout the state, from the 50,000-watt station in Milwaukee’s 1.5-million listener market to stations with tiny signals in Wausau and programs syndicated on public radio stations across Wisconsin.Ryan Seaman, 31, who works in construction, said he was a frequent caller to conservative talk radio shows in Milwaukee, where he lives.“They try to offer perspective on both sides without really giving too much of their input,” Mr. Seaman said. “It’s not like they’re trying to force something down on you. That’s how I think the news should be. It should be fair, but accurate about what’s going on.”Shawn Kelly, a Republican retiree from Fond du Lac who in 2013 was appointed as his county’s register of deeds by Gov. Scott Walker, said what he heard on local talk radio was often “the exact opposite” from what he saw on television or read in the newspapers.“I don’t think there is a middle-of-the-road news organization around here,” Mr. Kelly said.Jerry Bader was a conservative talk show host who refused to support Donald J. Trump. Now, he is the minister of a church that serves Green Bay’s poor and homeless.Taylor Glascock for The New York Times“I wasn’t prepared for what happened to the conservative landscape,” Mr. Bader said.Taylor Glascock for The New York TimesMr. Johnson’s relationship with Wisconsin’s conservative talk radio hosts dates to the dawn of his political career.In early 2010, when he was a plastics executive unknown in Wisconsin politics, he gave a speech at a Tea Party rally. An attendee soon helped introduce him to Charlie Sykes, then the most powerful conservative talk radio host in the state.“I said, ‘Well, how would you describe yourself?’” Mr. Sykes said. “Either that day or the next day, he sent me a picture of his bedside table, which was stacked up with Wall Street Journals. His point was, ‘I’m a Wall Street Journal editorial page conservative.’”Mr. Sykes became the single biggest promoter of Mr. Johnson’s 2010 campaign for Senate. He read parts of Mr. Johnson’s speech during his show the next week, and Mr. Johnson sent a recording in which Mr. Sykes praised him to the chairs of the Republican Party in each of the state’s 72 counties.Not long after, Mr. Johnson won the endorsement of the Republican Party of Wisconsin at its annual convention — a coup for someone with just a few weeks of political experience.Mr. Johnson, right, in 2018. His rise to prominence began eight years earlier, when, as a plastics executive unknown in Wisconsin politics, he gave a speech at a Tea Party rally. Erin Schaff for The New York TimesMr. Sykes never stopped promoting Mr. Johnson’s candidacy, and Republican voters followed. After Mr. Johnson won and took office, the two had a standing off-air call for 40 minutes each week in which the senator sought feedback on how he was doing and the mood of his political base.In a 2011 interview with Peggy Noonan of The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Johnson said Mr. Sykes’s promotion was “the reason I’m a U.S. senator.”Conservative talk radio hosts in Wisconsin often move as a bloc, and Mr. Johnson has moved with them. In the 2016 presidential primary, all of the state’s major radio hosts — and all but one of the Republicans in the State Legislature — opposed Donald J. Trump’s candidacy.But once Mr. Trump was the nominee, the Republican base quickly rallied behind him, and so did Mr. Johnson. The radio show hosts who didn’t would soon learn the consequences. Mr. Sykes, who once lectured Mr. Trump on air about civility, announced before Mr. Trump won the general election that he was leaving his show.In Green Bay, Jerry Bader spoke with Mr. Johnson a few times a month on a radio show he hosted for 14 years that, he said, was “about everything from a conservative worldview.”In a recent interview, Mr. Bader said he couldn’t recall ever disagreeing with Mr. Johnson on the air — even though Mr. Bader served as the M.C. at a rally for Senator Ted Cruz during the 2016 primary and steadfastly opposed Mr. Trump even after the general election.Mr. Bader said his ratings dipped after Mr. Trump took office. Callers to the show were “very vehement” in their anger at him. When he was eventually fired in 2018, he said, the station’s management told him it was because he wouldn’t support Mr. Trump. A number of the Republican officials who had been regulars on his show called to offer condolences, but Mr. Bader said he never heard again from Mr. Johnson.“I wasn’t prepared for what happened to the conservative landscape,” said Mr. Bader, who is now the minister of a Green Bay church that serves the city’s poor and homeless. These days, he prefers to ignore politics.Mr. Bader’s time slot soon went to Joe Giganti, a pro-Trump host. Mr. Johnson is a regular guest, appearing on the show 18 times this year. In an interview, Mr. Giganti said that not only had he never disagreed with Mr. Johnson on the air, but that he also shared his skepticism on issues including Covid vaccines, the F.B.I.’s conduct and Wisconsin’s system of voting.Mr. Giganti’s show has been a success thanks in part to Mr. Johnson, who the host says helps drive ratings higher. He is now syndicated in two other Wisconsin markets and five more across the country — all places where he promulgates Mr. Johnson’s false theories.“There are,” Mr. Giganti said, “plenty of unanswered questions from the 2020 election.” More

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      Elise Stefanik Believes She Can Turn New York Into a Republican State

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      AMSTERDAM, N.Y. — The event, hard by the Mohawk River, was a meet-and-greet opportunity for some of the Republican Party’s most notable candidates in New York. But Representative Elise Stefanik’s focus clearly extended far beyond her re-election bid.“We are seeing the results of one-party Democrat rule both in Albany and in Washington, and it has created crisis, after crisis, after crisis,” Ms. Stefanik said, with her attacks on the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, and other Democrats drawing the biggest applause lines.“The bad ideas that start in Albany, often times they percolate to Washington,” she added.Ms. Stefanik, the chair of the House Republican Conference, is at the forefront of a push for her party to regain control of Congress, and she believes that New York — perennially a Democratic state — can lead the way. She predicts that Republicans will win 15 of the state’s 26 House seats.And her efforts in New York — appearing at fund-raisers and news conferences across the state — are predicated on a message that New York’s Rockefeller-era Republicanism, with moderate positions on social issues girded by fiscal and budgetary austerity, is over.“America First is here to stay,” said Ms. Stefanik, 38, adding, “and parties are determined not by the political leaders, they’re determined by the people.”Indeed, of the eight Republican members of the state’s current congressional delegation, only one, Representative John Katko of central New York, is generally considered a consistent moderate, and he is retiring, a decision that the former president greeted with joy.“Great news,” former President Donald J. Trump said after Mr. Katko announced he would not run in 2022. “Another one bites the dust.”Veterans of the party — which hasn’t won a statewide race in two decades — say the move away from Rockefeller Republicanism is a part of larger shift, as moderate Republicans from urban areas moved away and the party’s faithful increasingly began to be found in more conservative, rural areas.Ms. Stefanik drew applause as she criticized Nancy Pelosi at a recent political event in Amsterdam, N.Y.Cindy Schultz for The New York Times“A lot of the Republican base, what was part of that movement, has left the state,” said the former congressman Tom Reed, a Republican who served as chairman of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus and who resigned last spring from a district encompassing the state’s Southern Tier. “They are just not there anymore.”Others were even more blunt about the status of the Rockefeller model.“That’s over,” said Al D’Amato, the former Republican senator from New York. “That’s over.”The shift in the Republican Party echoes the arc of Ms. Stefanik’s political career.A Harvard-educated striver from upstate New York, Ms. Stefanik was the youngest woman ever elected to Congress in 2014, running as a moderate in a district that had previously been represented by Representative Bill Owens, a centrist Democrat.She rose fast in the ranks, banking right with the election of Mr. Trump as president in 2016 and quickly earning his approbation after she staunchly defended him during his first impeachment hearing.By May 2021, she had effectively deposed Representative Liz Cheney to become chair of the House Republican Conference, making her the third-highest ranking Republican in that chamber. She voted against certifying the vote confirming President Biden’s victory and now describes herself as “Ultra MAGA” and “proud of it.”If, as is expected, Ms. Stefanik wins a fifth term next month, she will be the most senior member of the state’s Republican delegation. She is also the first New Yorker to hold a position of leadership in the Republican Party since Representative Tom Reynolds, from western New York, served as chair of National Republican Congressional Committee from 2003 to 2006. And she’s proven a potent draw for donors, raising more than $10 million, often in small dollars, for congressional races and party committees nationwide, according to her campaign, while giving money to conservative candidates from Rhode Island to California.Her influence on candidates has already been seen across the state, with candidates in races in Long Island trumpeting and raising funds off Ms. Stefanik’s endorsement, including Nicholas J. LaLota, a former Navy lieutenant who is running to fill Mr. Zeldin’s seat, and George Santos, a financier who attended the Jan. 6 rally and is running in the Third Congressional District.With New York potentially being a battleground for control of the House, Ms. Stefanik’s efforts have also been backed by national party leaders: At a September fund-raiser in Washington, D.C., for Mike Lawler, who is trying to knock off Representative Sean Patrick Maloney, the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, she appeared alongside Kevin McCarthy, the Republican leader in the House..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.In early October, Ms. Stefanik also co-hosted a $1,000-a-ticket reception at the Women’s National Republican Club in Manhattan, alongside Representative Tom Emmer, the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, raising more than $120,000 for seven of the state’s Republican congressional candidates.Her principal campaign committee — Elise for Congress, currently home to a $3 million bankroll — has also given steadily to other congressional candidates across New York, as well as to county committees and small-bore races like county judgeships. She also leads the Elise Victory Fund (a joint fund-raising committee), and E-Pac, which works to elect female Republicans.That sort of beneficence, as well as her outspoken appearances on conservative cable news shows and constant critiques of President Biden and Democratic policies, have positioned Ms. Stefanik to become one of New York’s few Republican kingmakers, on par with Mr. Trump and, previously, Mr. D’Amato.“She’s one of the coolest rock stars we have,” said Sally Hogan, who leads a Republican women’s organization in the Capital region which expresses “100 percent support” for Mr. Trump. “She stands up for women and for Republican values.”Ms. Stefanik, addressing farmers at a recent event in Fultonville, N.Y., has also traveled across the state to bolster the chances of her Republican colleagues.Cindy Schultz for The New York TimesThe embrace of Trumpism is not complete among Republicans in New York. Representative Andrew Garbarino of Long Island, and a pair of competitive candidates in the Hudson Valley, Mr. Lawler and Marc Molinaro, have taken some centrist positions, while Representative Nicole Malliotakis of Staten Island — who is in a rematch against Max Rose, the former Democratic congressman — has expressed measured support for new gun laws and abortion rights, while remaining a staunch Trump backer.And there are Republicans who still identify with the Rockefeller era, including Mr. Katko, the soon-to-be congressional retiree who espouses a bipartisan philosophy, and was one of just 10 Republicans who voted to impeach Mr. Trump in 2021.“My bread and butter is always that the other side is not the enemy,” he said in an interview earlier this fall. “The Democrats love the country just as much as we do. They just have a different approach.”Another New York Republican who strayed from the party’s orthodoxy — Representative Chris Jacobs — is also retiring, after embracing gun control policies in the wake of a racist massacre in Buffalo, adjacent to his district in western New York.Mr. Jacobs’s decision led Ms. Stefanik to a somewhat surprising endorsement of Carl Paladino, a Buffalo-area developer and former candidate for governor with a long history of racist and sexist slurs, in a June primary to fill that seat. (Among other remarks, Mr. Paladino, who lost to Andrew Cuomo in the race for governor in 2010, commented that Hitler is “the kind of leader we need today.”)The endorsement of Mr. Paladino signaled Ms. Stefanik’s willingness to take on the status quo in the state party: Mr. Paladino’s opponent was Nick Langworthy, the party’s chairman, who was assailed by one of Ms. Stefanik’s top aides who called on him to resign. Mr. Langworthy fired back, accusing Ms. Stefanik of a “vendetta.” she did not back down, lending staff to Mr. Paladino during his primary campaign.He did not win, though he has continued to criticize Mr. Langworthy, calling him a “nightmare” for the state party in a recent interview, while lavishing praise on Ms. Stefanik.“She’s very bright. She’s got that North Country thing going for her: She’s so practical and down to earth,” Mr. Paladino said. “And yeah, she helped me and I’m very thankful for that and all the help that she sent me. I can’t say enough good things about her.”Mr. Langworthy, who is expected to be elected to Congress next month, declined to comment on Mr. Paladino or Ms. Stefanik, who, for her part, says the feud is settled. “We haven’t spoken,” she said, of Mr. Langworthy, “but we’re working great with the New York G.O.P.”Jay Jacobs, the Democratic state party chair, said that Ms. Stefanik’s predictions of a “red tsunami” were overblown. “My advice to the congresswoman is, ‘Don’t count your chickens till they hatch,’” Mr. Jacobs said. “A lot can happen in the last 10 days of any campaign, particularly because that is when most voters really begin to pay attention.”In her own race, Ms. Stefanik, who lives in Schuylerville, in Saratoga County, N.Y., is expected to prevail in the 21st Congressional District, an enormous, solidly Republican district that encompasses all or part of 15 counties in northern New York. Her opponent is Matt Castelli, a former C.I.A. officer specializing in counterterrorism, who has attacked Ms. Stefanik for the very ambition that has made her famous, claiming it has come at a cost to her constituents.“She sold out her district in order to advance her career, and that is readily transparent to voters across the political spectrum,” Mr. Castelli, 41, said. “And people are really turned off by it.”Matt Castelli, a former C.I.A. officer making his first run for office, has raised more than $1 million in the last quarter in his run against Ms. Stefanik.Cindy Schultz for The New York TimesMr. Castelli, a first-time candidate and a Democrat, established a third-party line — the Moderate Party — to appeal to voters that might be put off by Ms. Stefanik’s complete embrace of Trumpism, and he has brought in more than $1 million in donations between July and September, a haul he says been helped by donors nationwide who understand “the stakes of this particular race.”“I’ve made the argument that this is the frontline in the battle for the soul of America, because there is no person on the ballot this November that probably represents this ongoing threat to our democracy, more so, than Elise Stefanik,” he said.Ms. Stefanik insists she is not a pure partisan, noting her work on northern border issues as well as on veterans affairs, as part of her role on the House Armed Services Committee. “It’s to the media’s detriment that they don’t want to focus on that,” she said.By the same token, she also reminded voters at the recent meet-and-greet in Amsterdam of her prominence in Republican circles, something she said “gives this district a seat at the highest levels.”“And I’m never going to apologize for that,” she said. “You deserve more than a backbencher.”Nicholas Fandos contributed reporting. 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      A Beginner’s Guide to the U.S. Midterm Elections

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      What’s at stake, and how does it work? Let’s start with the basics.If you are broadly aware that the upcoming midterm elections in the United States have major global implications, but you’re not up to speed on the American system of government or you’re having trouble following along, you’re in the right place.In the United States’ two-party system, control of two crucial bodies of government — the Senate and the House of Representatives — is essential for getting laws made, and it will be decided by a vote on Nov. 8. Democrats currently control both bodies and the presidency, and losing either the House or the Senate to Republicans would significantly decrease Democrats’ power in the next two years of President Biden’s term.Hundreds of elections will take place, but many candidates are considered shoo-ins and control in each body will most likely be decided by a few tight races.I need the basics: What is decided in this election?The Senate, which is now at a 50-50 deadlock but is controlled by Democrats because Vice President Kamala Harris casts the tiebreaking vote, has 100 members, with two from each of the 50 states. There are 34 seats up for grabs in November, and winners serve six-year terms.The House, with 435 voting members, is controlled by the Democrats, 222 to 213. All 435 seats are up for election, with winners serving two-year terms.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsElection Day is Tuesday, Nov. 8.Bracing for a Red Wave: Republicans were already favored to flip the House. Now they are looking to run up the score by vying for seats in deep-blue states.Pennsylvania Senate Race: The debate performance by Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who is still recovering from a stroke, has thrust questions of health to the center of the pivotal race and raised Democratic anxieties.G.O.P. Inflation Plans: Republicans are riding a wave of anger over inflation as they seek to recapture Congress, but few economists expect their proposals to bring down rising prices.Polling Analysis: If these poll results keep up, everything from a Democratic hold in the Senate and a narrow House majority to a total G.O.P. rout becomes imaginable, writes Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst.The odds are against Democrats, but this has been a strange year.Historically, the party that controls the presidency — currently the Democrats — has fared poorly in the midterms. Frustration with the president often leads to success for the other party, and Mr. Biden has low approval ratings.Currently, Republicans are favored to win the House, and the Senate is considered a tossup, according to FiveThirtyEight. Democrats enjoyed a major polling bump after the Supreme Court made an unpopular ruling in June that removed the constitutional right to abortion, giving the party hope that it could defy historical trends, but that advantage has mostly faded.Read more here on how to follow the polls and the predictions, and on the wide range of outcomes possible.Why it matters: If Democrats lose control of either body, Biden’s agenda is in trouble.In highly polarized times, it is exceedingly difficult to pass legislation unless one party controls the presidency, the House and the Senate. If Republicans win either the House or the Senate, they can prevent much of what Mr. Biden and the Democrats would hope to accomplish before 2024, the next presidential election. You could kiss any major Democratic legislation goodbye.On the other hand, if Democrats hold onto the House and increase their lead in the Senate, it could give them more ability to pass new laws. And, since senators serve six-year terms, running up a lead now would give them some breathing room in 2024, when analysts say Republicans are likely to be highly favored..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.If Republicans gain power, they could block Democratic efforts to codify abortion rights and take action on the climate, and question the aid sent to Ukraine.Historically, the party that controls the presidency — currently the Democrats — has fared poorly in the midterms. Sarah Silbiger for The New York TimesRepublicans could gain investigative and impeachment powers.If the Republicans take one or both of the chambers, they could use their new powers to create an onslaught of investigations into Democrats, as opposition parties have long done in Washington. With subpoenas and court hearings, they could highlight perceived incompetence or alleged wrongdoing on a variety of subjects, including the search of former President Donald J. Trump’s private club and residence in August, the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the pandemic response.Democrats expect that Mr. Biden and his family would be among the targets, along with Dr. Anthony Fauci, a top medical adviser in the Trump and Biden administrations.Some Republicans have also pledged to impeach the president, a complicated process that could force Mr. Biden to stand trial in the Senate, as Mr. Trump did for separate impeachments in 2020 and 2021. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, a Republican, said last year that there would be “enormous pressure” on a Republican House to impeach Mr. Biden “whether it’s justified or not.”An important power of the Senate: Approving court nominations.Control of the Senate includes the power to approve federal court justices, up to and including the Supreme Court. If Republicans claim control, they could use their power to block President Biden’s nominations.When President Barack Obama, a Democrat, had to work with a Republican-controlled Senate, the Republicans blocked his Supreme Court nomination in 2016. But Mr. Trump was able to speed through three Supreme Court nominations, thanks to the friendly Senate.Though not as high-profile, lower-court nominations can also be highly influential. As president, both Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden have used same-party Senate control to appoint dozens of their preferred judges to important posts across the nation.State races could have a huge effect on issues like abortion rights and voting.A governor will be elected in 36 states. Among other powers, they could be highly influential in determining whether abortion remains legal in several states.The races for each state’s secretary of state do not usually receive much attention, but this year they have attracted major interest because of the office’s role in overseeing elections. It could become a key position if there are election disputes in the 2024 presidential election, and some of the Republicans running in key states supported Mr. Trump’s false claims that the 2020 election was stolen from him. More

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      The 2022 Race for the House, in Four Districts, and Four Polls

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      President Biden is unpopular everywhere. Economic concerns are mounting. Abortion rights are popular but social issues are more often secondary.A new series of House polls by The New York Times and Siena College across four archetypal swing districts offers fresh evidence that Republicans are poised to retake Congress this fall as the party dominated among voters who care most about the economy.Democrats continue to show resilience in places where abortion is still high on the minds of voters, and where popular incumbents are on the ballot. Indeed, the Democrats were still tied or ahead in all four districts — three of which were carried by Mr. Biden in 2020. But the party’s slim majority — control could flip if just five seats change hands — demands that it essentially run the table everywhere, at a moment when the economy has emerged as the driving issue in all but the country’s wealthier enclaves.The poll results in the four districts — an upscale suburb in Kansas, the old industrial heartland of Pennsylvania, a fast-growing part of Las Vegas and a sprawling district along New Mexico’s southern border — offer deeper insights beyond the traditional Republican and Democratic divide in the race for Congress. They show how the midterm races are being shaped by larger and at times surprising forces that reflect the country’s ethnic, economic and educational realignment.“The economy thing affects everyone while the social thing affects a minority,” said Victor Negron, a 30-year-old blackjack dealer who lives in Henderson, Nev., and who was planning to vote for the Republican vying to flip the seat from a Democratic incumbent. “If everyone’s doing good, then who cares what else everyone else is doing.”The Four Districts Polled More