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      Biden to give possible swan song at Democratic convention amid Gaza protests

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      Joe Biden will take centre stage for perhaps the last time on Monday night when he addresses the Democratic national convention in Chicago – as the US president faces a backlash over one of his most complex legacies.Tens of thousands of protesters are expected to converge in the host city to demand that the US end military aid to Israel for its ongoing war in Gaza. Activists have branded Biden “Genocide Joe” and called for the vice-president, Kamala Harris, to change course.Just over a month ago Biden had been expecting to give Thursday’s closing speech as he accepted the Democratic nomination for 2024. But his withdrawal from the race last month, and the party’s consolidation around Harris, means that Biden will speak on opening night and then set off on a holiday.The president has been reportedly working on his address with his long-time adviser Mike Donilon and chief speechwriter, Vinay Reddy. He is expected to return to a familiar theme – the defence of democracy against Donald Trump – and tout Harris as the ideal presidential candidate.Biden is likely to receive a far more electrifying welcome as an outgoing president than he ever did as a candidate. The convention will honour his half-century career in politics as senator, vice-president and president, with the first lady, Jill Biden, among those paying tribute. Harris is likely to join Biden on stage.It will be a bittersweet moment for the 81-year-old, who is still reportedly irked by the role that the senior Democratic figures Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer played in pressuring him to step aside amid questions about his mental fitness.Still, the mood among Democrats is buoyant as opinion polls show Harris leading or tied with Trump in crucial swing states. The Illinois governor, JB Pritzker, told CNN’s State of the Union programme that the convention would be “like a rock concert”. A-list stars are likely to inject further energy.Wiley Nickel, a congressman from North Carolina who was with Harris in Raleigh last Friday when she unveiled her economic policy agenda, said in a phone interview: “The feeling is like it was back in 2008 when I worked for President Obama. People are incredibly excited. They’re focused on the issues instead of Joe Biden’s age. When we have a campaign focused on the issues we’re going to win.”But the party is eager to avoid any repeat of their Chicago convention in 1968, when anti-Vietnam war protests and a police riot led to scenes of chaos that stunned the nation and contributed to the party’s defeat in November.The death toll in Gaza has exceeded 40,000, according to the health ministry there. The biggest protest group the Coalition to March on the DNC has planned demonstrations on Monday and Thursday to coincide with Biden and Harris’s speeches. Organisers say they expect at least 20,000 activists to demonstrate, including students who protested against the war on college campuses.The switch at the top of the ticket has given some activists pause but others contend that Harris is part of the Biden administration and so complicit. Her speech on Thursday will be watched closely for signs that she is willing to take a harder line against the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.Peter Beinart, a professor of journalism and political science at the Newmark School of Journalism at the City University of New York, argues that Harris can distinguish herself simply be enforcing an existing law that bars the US from assisting any unit of a foreign security force that commits “gross violations” of human rights.“The premise of the Leahy law is that all lives, including those of Palestinians, are equally precious,” Beinart wrote in the New York Times. “Kamala Harris can show, finally, that a major-party nominee for president agrees.”On Sunday, there was march along Michigan Avenue against the war in Gaza and for abortion and LGBTQ+ rights. The march began in late afternoon and stretched into the night. Police lined the march route and there were no signs of major conflict. At one point, anti-abortion activists staged a small counter-protest.The convention will draw an estimated 50,000 people to America’s third-biggest city including delegates, activists and journalists. Security will be tight, with street closures around the convention centre, while police have undergone de-escalation training.On the eve of the convention, Democrats released their party platform, a document of more than 90 pages presenting their policy priorities. The platform was voted on by the convention’s platform committee before Biden’s exit and repeatedly refers to his “second term”.On Monday, the convention will focus on the Biden administration’s policy accomplishments and feature former presidential nominee Hillary Clinton; Tuesday will contrast Trump’s and Harris’s visions for America; Wednesday will emphasise the importance of protecting individual freedoms; Thursday is entitled “For Our Future”, underlined by Harris’s speech.Trump and his running mate, JD Vance, will spend the week counter-programming the Democratic convention with a tour of battleground states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia. More

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      Lindsey Graham warns Trump ‘the provocateur’ in danger of losing election

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      The Republican senator and Donald Trump loyalist Lindsey Graham has warned that Trump is in danger of losing the US presidential election if he continues to talk about Kamala Harris’s race and make other personal attacks instead of focusing on policy issues.Graham’s comments came on Meet The Press when asked whether he agreed with Nikki Haley’s recent admonition that Trump and Republicans should “quit whining” and stop “talking about what race Kamala Harris is”.“Yeah. I don’t think – I don’t look at vice-president Kamala Harris as a lunatic,” Graham told moderator Kristin Welker. “I look at her as the most liberal person to be nominated for president in the history of the United States.”He said the election should be fought on policy. “A nightmare for Harris is to defend her policy choices,” he said.“President Trump can win this election,” Graham continued. “If you have a policy debate, he wins. Donald Trump the provocateur, the showman, may not win this election.”Trump’s ad hominem digs against Harris have ranged from disparaging and false comments about her race and intelligence to snide remarks about her appearance. During a Saturday rally Trump said: “I’m a better looking person than Kamala” and that Harris had “the laugh of a crazy person”.With Harris rising in the polls many saw Trump’s rally, in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania, as an opportunity for him to reboot his campaign by focusing on issues of importance to voters, but he has instead continued to emphasize personal differences.Trump has repeatedly questioned the racial identity of Harris, whose mother is Indian and father is Jamaican. In a chaotic appearance at the National Association of Black Journalists several weeks ago, Trump incorrectly claimed that Harris suddenly “became a Black woman” and falsely stated that she had only identified with her Indian background.“Is she Indian or is she Black?” Trump remarked, prompting audible gasps. “I respect either one, but she obviously doesn’t because she was Indian all the way and then all of sudden she became a Black woman.”Harris on Sunday suggested without naming him directly that Trump’s habit of constantly attacking opponents made him a “coward”.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion“Over the last several years there’s been this kind of perversion that has taken place, I think, which is to suggest that the measure of the strength of a leader is based on who you beat down. When what we know is the real and true measure of the strength of a leader is based on who you lift up,” Harris said at a campaign appearance in Pennsylvania. “Anybody who’s about beating down other people is a coward.”JD Vance, Trump’s vice-presidential candidate, has previously described Harris as a coward, too, in keeping with his running mate’s personal attacks on her.“President Trump walked right into the NABJ conference and showed he had the courage to take tough questions, while Kamala Harris continues to hide from any scrutiny or unfriendly media like the coward she is,” Vance wrote last month. More

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      Trump campaign reset goes awry in Pennsylvania as he attacks Harris

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      Donald Trump tried to reset his campaign at a rally in battleground Pennsylvania on Saturday as polls show Kamala Harris pulling ahead in key swing states.But the former president quickly broke away from the prepared speech about economic issues to launch personal attacks on Harris including accusations that her agenda is both communist and fascist, and that she has “the laugh of a crazy person”.Trump’s written speech before a mostly filled 8,000-seat indoor arena in Wilkes-Barre focussed on economic policy, although a part of the audience left before he finished speaking. Some Republican strategists had hoped the former president could regain the initiative by zeroing in on issues on which opinion polls say voters have greater trust in Trump than the Democrats, such as inflation.Trump attacked Harris as part of the Biden administration for the surge in prices that has hit many Americans hard and described increased household costs as “the Kamala Harris inflation tax”.“She was there for everything,” he said in attempting to pin Biden’s policies on her.Trump also likened Harris’s pledge on Friday to tackle high grocery costs by targeting profiteering by food corporations, and to bring down housing and prescription drug costs, to the Soviet Union’s economic system.“In her speech yesterday, Kamala went full communist,” he said. “Comrade Kamala announced that she wants to institute socialist price controls. You saw that never worked before … It will cause rationing, hunger and skyrocketing prices.”View image in fullscreenThe former president challenged voters to ask themselves whether they were “better off with Kamala and Biden than you were under President Donald J Trump”, a question that many in Pennsylvania might answer in his favour.But the impact was soon lost as Trump once again veered repeatedly away from the script with rambling discourses from immigration to China and trans people, often based on outright falsehoods.At one point, he even acknowledged that was what he was doing.“They’ll say he was rambling. I don’t ramble. I’m a really smart guy, you know, really smart. I don’t ramble. But the other day, anytime I hit too hard, they say he was rambling, rambling,” he said.The audience, some wearing T-shirts proclaiming “I’m voting for a convicted felon” and chanting “Fight, fight, fight” in reference to the former president’s words shortly after he narrowly escaped an assassination attempt last month, urged Trump on.When he returned to the script, Trump attacked Harris for her previous opposition to fracking, an unpopular stance in Pennsylvania, which is a major fracker, but he will not have helped himself in the Rust belt by saying he would cut spending on infrastructure such as renewing bridges and roads, which has provided jobs in the region.Trump also challenged Harris’s legitimacy as the Democratic presidential candidate, describing it as “a coup” against Biden.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion“Joe Biden hates her. This was an overthrow of a president,” he said.Trump confused some in the audience with what appeared to be a claim that if Harris could become the candidate without a primary election, then so should he because he is so popular among Republicans.“I said, so why are we having an election? They didn’t have an election. Why are we having an election?” he said.Trump described Harris’s decision to pass over Pennsylvania’s governor, Josh Shapiro, as her running mate, as antisemitism in an apparent reference to debate about whether Shapiro’s support for Israel, including work for the Israel embassy in the past, would damage the Democratic campaign because of the war in Gaza .“They turned him down because he’s Jewish. That’s why they turned him down. Now, we can be politically correct and not say that. I could say, well, they turned him down for various reasons. No, no, they turned him down because he’s Jewish,” said Trump.“And I’ll tell you this, any Jewish person that votes for her or a Democrat has to go out and have their head examined.”Through it all, Trump repeatedly returned to personal attacks on Harris, including a bizarre discourse on how she laughs, a mannerism that has proven popular among many younger voters in particular.“Have you heard her laugh? That is the laugh of a crazy person. That is the laugh of a crazy, the laugh of a lunatic,” he said. More

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      Trump taps Tulsi Gabbard for help preparing for debate with Kamala Harris

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      Donald Trump has tapped Tulsi Gabbard, the former Democratic Hawaii representative, to help prepare him for next month’s presidential debate with Kamala Harris.The selection of Gabbard as rehearsal stand-in for the vice president, first reported by the New York Times, suggests that despite denials, the former president may be planning to prepare for the 10 September clash with greater-than-usual diligence.Gabbard, an Iraq war veteran, had been floated as a potential Trump vice presidential pick. The former Democrat fell out with her party after standing in the 2020 presidential primaries after being smeared by Hillary Clinton as a “Russian asset”.That generated a lawsuit in which Gabbard alleged that Clinton’s suggestion she was the Democratic candidate favored by Russia was “retribution” for Gabbard backing Clinton’s rival Bernie Sanders in the 2016 primary.But Gabbard’s selection for Harris debate prep carries a potent history: during the 2020 Democratic primaries, Gabbard proved a formidable opponent to Harris when she excoriated the then California senator for jailing hundreds of Californians for marijuana violations while she was the state’s attorney general and then bragged about her own use of the drug.“Kamala Harris is an empty suit,” Gabbard told Fox News last week. “In 2019, I confronted her with her hypocrisy – that what she said was very different from what she actually did.”In an email to the Times, the Trump campaign said their candidate “does not need traditional debate prep but will continue to meet with respected policy advisers and effective communicators like Tulsi Gabbard”.Despite downplaying the debate prep, Trump’s handlers are said to be wary of their candidate coming off too hot, as he did with Biden in 2020. This summer’s rematch was less a victory for Trump than a potential for disaster for a less-than-present Biden given his poor performance in the June debate.Trump also faces difficulties in how to debate a woman after he was accused of being overbearing toward Hillary Clinton in 2016 and for placing several women who had accused her husband, Bill Clinton, of sexual misconduct in the front rows of the studio audience.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionAfter Gabbard’s debate criticism of Harris in 2020, the now-vice president mocked Gabbard’s low standing in the polls. But Harris dropped out first, followed a month later by Gabbard. More

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      George Santos expected to plead guilty in fraud case on Monday – reports

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      The disgraced former New York Republican congressman George Santos is expected to plead guilty on Monday in a deal with prosecutors on charges that he defrauded his campaign during his 2022 midterm elections, according to multiple reports.Hints of a plea agreement came on Friday ahead of Santos’s federal criminal trial, which was set to start early next month. Prosecutors and defense attorneys suddenly scheduled a hearing without explicitly saying why.Multiple donors to Santos’s previous election campaign told Talking Points Memo that they had been informed that a plea deal would be announced on Monday. TPM was the first outlet to report on alleged fraud by Santos involving the diversion of campaign funds for personal spending.Santos’s attorney, Joe Murray, and the US attorney for the eastern district of New York, the federal prosecuting body with jurisdiction over the case, did not immediately respond to requests for comment on Saturday.The former Republican congressman, a political unknown who flipped a key New York Democratic district stronghold in 2022, drew headlines after it was revealed that much of his résumé had been elaborately fabricated.Despite this, Republican leadership in the House spent months standing by him. He was finally expelled in December 2023, less than a year after being sworn in to Congress. The Democrat Tom Suozzi won the special election to fill the vacated seat.Santos, 36, a first-generation Brazilian American, had run as a member of a “new generation of Republican leadership” and as the “full embodiment of the American dream”.He falsely claimed to have graduated from a New York college, worked at a major New York bank and run a pet rescue charity, and that his family owned a portfolio of 13 properties and that his mother had been at the World Trade Center when it was attacked by hijackers on 11 September 2001.The holes in Santos’s story soon came to wide attention and he was ultimately indicted on 23 charges that included allegations of lying to Congress and spending campaign funds on luxuries including trips to casinos, Ferragamo shoes, Botox treatments and OnlyFans payments. He had pleaded not guilty and seemed to revel in proclaiming his innocence to a scrum of reporters outside court.A scathing House ethics committee report on Santos’s conduct said he “was frequently in debt, had an abysmal credit score, and relied on an ever-growing wallet of high-interest credit cards to fund his luxury spending habits” and had “made over $240,000 cash withdrawals for unknown purposes”.After leaving Congress, Santos began a sideline career as a Cameo performer, posting greetings to paying customers. It was success, at least briefly, with Santos earning more than he had as a US congressman.He also attempted a congressional comeback, this time as an independent candidate, but that effort quickly fizzled.If a plea deal emerges next week, it will follow a similar agreement with Santos’s campaign fundraiser, Sam Miele, who pleaded guilty to federal fraud charges last year, and that of his former campaign treasurer Nancy Marks. More

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      Keep talking, JD! Vance’s creepy views on ‘females’ are repelling women voters

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      JD Vance puts his futon in his mouth againConsider, if you will, the mysterious role of the postmenopausal female. Her ovaries have shrunk and she is no longer able to fulfil a woman’s biological destiny of bringing children into the world. What’s the point of her?One Mr Eric Weinstein, a mathematician and host of The Portal podcast, has helpfully provided some intellectual light on this most vexing of questions. Drumroll please, per Weinstein the “whole purpose of the postmenopausal female”, is to help take care of her grandchildren.A little more context: in 2020 Weinstein had Senator JD Vance on his podcast and the pair chatted about the importance of grandparents. Vance explained that his extremely accomplished mother-in-law, a biology professor, had taken a year-long sabbatical and lived with them for a year after the birth of the Vances’ first child. Weinstein heartily approved of this, noting that nurturing was, after all, the purpose of the “postmenopausal female”. Vance appeared to agree. He also seemed to agree when Weinstein proclaimed that having your grandparents help out with your kids is a “weird, unadvertised feature of marrying an Indian woman”. (Vance’s wife, Usha Chilukuri Vance, is the daughter of Indian immigrants.)These recently resurfaced comments are attracting a lot of attention for obvious reasons. Ever since he was announced as Donald Trump’s running mate, Vance has been in the headlines for his history of weird comments about gender and marriage. During a 2021 event, for example, he seemed to suggest that it was far too easy for people to get divorced and it was best for people to stay married, for the sake of their kids, even if the marriages were violent. Vance has said these remarks were taken out of context. Around the same time he also memorably said that the US was being led by a “bunch of childless cat ladies”. Then, when recently pressed on the comment, he claimed it was sarcastic and added: “I’ve got nothing against cats.”Was Vance’s apparent agreement with Weinstein’s assessment of the role of “the postmenopausal female” sarcasm as well? No, this time the excuse is that it’s all fake news. A spokesperson for the aspiring vice-president has accused “the media” of “dishonestly putting words in JD’s mouth”. The spokesperson also claimed: “JD reacted to the first part of the host’s sentence, assuming he was going to say: ‘That’s the whole purpose of spending time with grandparents.’”You can listen to the excerpt yourself, if you can bear it, and come to your own conclusions. I think it’s fair to say, however, that Vance certainly doesn’t vocally disagree with Weinstein’s statement. He also doesn’t say anything along the lines of, “Eric, my friend, please don’t refer to women as females like that, it’s creepy and gives off major incel vibes.”Ultimately, it’s difficult to give Vance the benefit of the doubt when it comes to these comments considering his past statements on gender and the sort of people that he surrounds himself with. Donald Trump, the man’s running mate, has been legally branded a sexual predator and is one of the most famous misogynists in the world, for God’s sake!Then there’s Peter Thiel, who hired Vance at his investment firm in 2017 then groomed him for political stardom – donating $15m to Vance’s 2022 Ohio Senate campaign and helping to secure Trump’s endorsement. Vance has said that Thiel has been a major influence on him, which is worrying because the billionaire has a lot of incredibly archaic views. He’s called diversity initiatives “very evil and very silly” and has mused that women having the right to vote has been a setback for libertarianism. Weinstein, by the way, is also in the Thiel fold: at the time those “postmenopausal female” comments were recorded, the podcast host was the managing director of Thiel’s hedge fund. Males of a feather seem to flock together.Anyway, even if one were to be very generous and say this postmenopausal controversy has been overblown, Vance seems determined to keep insulting as many women as he can. On Wednesday, for example, he suggested to Fox News that it’s not “normal” to care about abortion. “What do you say to suburban women out there who are marinating in this propaganda [that abortion has been banned nationwide]?” the Fox News host Laura Ingraham asked. Vance replied: “I don’t buy that … I think most suburban women care about the normal things that most Americans care about.”Here’s the thing: suburban women do care about abortion. An April Wall Street Journal poll found that 39% of suburban women cite abortion as a “make-or-break issue for their vote” and Trump risks losing this important voting bloc because of it.All of which to say: please keep talking, JD, you’re doing a great job of alienating half of the electorate! Kamala Harris already has a massive lead with likely women voters in the polls and Vance seems to be doing his damnedest to make the gender gap grow.Katy Perry’s annus horribilis continues to get worseThis year was supposed to be Perry’s big comeback. Alas Woman’s World, the first single from her new album, was widely panned and there was a general sense that the singer is struggling to adjust her 2010s vibe to the present moment. Now the 39-year-old is being investigated by the government of Spain’s Balearic islands for filming on protected dunes without the necessary permissions. In the Guardian, Laura Snapes asks if Perry’s career can recover from these setbacks.British woman wins rare payout after ‘sexsomnia’ rape case droppedDays before the man charged with raping Jade Blue McCrossen-Nethercot was due to stand trial the case was dropped because two experts said it was possible she had a disorder which could cause her to engage in sexual acts while asleep. While sexsomnia is a real condition, it’s not exactly common. What is becoming more common, however, is it being used as part of a defence in criminal trials.Indian women march to ‘reclaim the night’ after doctor’s rape and murderThere have been several days of protests across the state of West Bengal after an unnamed 31-year-old doctor was attacked while taking a break from a shift at a government hospital. “If the government cannot ensure the safety of women at a government-run institution, what hope is there?” one protester asked.Hundreds of cases of femicide recorded in Afghanistan since Taliban takeoverIt has been three years since the Taliban seized power again in Afghanistan, creating “the world’s most serious women’s rights crisis”. Since then there have been 332 reported cases of Afghan women being killed by men, with Taliban officials implicated in more than half of reported incidents. Sadly these numbers are probably just the “the tip of the iceberg”.Draft Iraqi law would allow nine-year-olds to marryIn 1959, Iraq passed a progressive Personal Status Law that transferred jurisdiction over family affairs from religious courts to the state. It set the legal age of marriage at 18 and restricted polygamy. However, while technically illegal, there’s been an increase in child marriage in Iraq over the last 20 years; one survey by Unicef found 28% of girls in Iraq had married by 18. Instead of trying to reverse this, religious groups are trying to roll back the Personal Status Law and essentially legalize child rape. A bloc of female lawmakers have been trying to stop the draft law being passed but they have an uphill battle on their hands.The week in pawtriarchyThe universe works in mysterious ways. Sometimes, for example, it gives you a cat. The Guardian has an explainer about the cat distribution system (CDS) meme and what you should actually do if a stray cat suddenly appears in your life. Mews you can use. More

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      Kamala Harris has made a dream start. But it’s too early to count out Donald Trump | Jonathan Freedland

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      Everything is going right for her and wrong for him. Kamala Harris has the encouraging poll numbers and, more precious still, the momentum. Donald Trump has the serial errors, the maudlin introspection and wobbling campaign team. In less than three weeks, the Democrats have pulled off one of the most extraordinary turnarounds in US political history, replacing a candidate who was shuffling towards near-certain defeat with one apparently soaring towards possible victory. And yet, even as Harris speaks of bringing the joy, contained within is a lurking danger – a peril that should be all too familiar.The sources of joy are not mysterious. Democrats are heading to Chicago for a convention that will feel like a party but was set to be a wake. Before 21 July, they were tied to Joe Biden, a man whose presidency has proved far more consequential than most predicted but who was on course to lose and lose badly in November. His passing of the baton to his number two has gone better than anyone had any right to expect.All but seamlessly, the campaign has switched over – equivalent to rebuilding a plane in mid-air, say seasoned election hands – and the candidate herself has taken to the task with unexpected ease. Twenty years younger and a whole lot more vigorous than her opponent, she has turned what had been Trump’s most potent weapon against Biden – age – against Trump himself. He is now the candidate of the past, she the face of the future. Never mind that Harris is a senior member of the present administration, she has shaken off the burden of incumbency – currently a negative in most democracies across the world – and cast herself as the turn-the-page option, aided by a powerful slogan: “We’re not going back.”The evidence that it’s working is in the headline poll numbers, which show her edging ahead in the very battleground states where Biden had been trailing. Almost overnight, she is winning back the voters who propelled Biden to victory in 2020 but were drifting away from him in 2024: young, Black and Hispanic Americans. Drawing big crowds, inspiring a thousand social-media memes, she is generating something Democrats have not seen since the first Barack Obama campaign of 2008: excitement.All this is having an equal and opposite effect on Trump. The better her numbers or crowds get, the more gloomy and rattled he becomes, consoling himself with the delusion that photos of Harris’s massive audiences are AI fakes. The New Yorker’s Susan Glasser depicts Trump as bereft, missing Biden as he pines for the return of the man he knew how to run against. That contest was simple: it was strong v weak, with Biden’s age doing the work.But now Trump faces Harris, and he can’t quite work out how to take her on. He can’t fix on a nickname, he can’t settle on a target. His team wants him to run on immigration and inflation – both Democratic vulnerabilities – but he keeps returning to the terrain he knows best: culture wars and race baiting. Just as he once falsely claimed that Obama was not born in the US, Trump initially offered his theory that only late in life did Harris happen “to turn Black”. He also regularly describes the vice-president as a “low IQ individual”, a phrase he has long applied to Black female politicians. His base may like this talk, but it repels everyone else.An illustration of the unsettling effect Harris is having on Trump came in the mutual back-scratch he conducted with X magnate Elon Musk this week. “She looks like the most beautiful actress ever to live,” Trump said about a drawing of Harris on the cover of Time magazine. “She looked very much like our great first lady, Melania,” he added, referring to his wife. Along with any listener to that exchange, Trump doesn’t know where to put himself.Because he is knocked off balance, he keeps stumbling. The Musk encounter was a case in point. After the embarrassment of a tech breakdown that led to a start delayed by 40-plus minutes, Trump rambled for two hours, straying into baffling tangents and frankly weird claims. One example: “global warming” is no threat, because rising sea levels mean “more oceanfront property”. (The real danger, he said, is the warmth of nuclear weapons.) What’s more, Trump seemed to speak with a heavy lisp throughout. None of this might matter much in itself, but it shows that Trump is beginning to get some of the same scrutiny of his cognitive and physical capacities that drove Biden to step aside. Put simply, age is now his problem.So this race is going exactly the way Harris would want it to go. Trump is lashing out at allies and, always a sign of a troubled campaign, shaking up his team. He is saddled with a running mate whose back catalogue would make a Gilead commander blush, while he paints an ever-darkening picture of a US in decline, a nation riddled with crime and overrun by scary invaders. All the while, she is beaming about a brighter tomorrow. As the Republican sage Mike Murphy puts it, “He’s doing Voldemort and she’s doing Ted Lasso.”Where, then, is the danger? First, the polling is not quite as rosy as Democrats want it to be. Dig further into the numbers and you see that, despite everything, Donald Trump is more popular now than he was at this same, mid-August point in either 2020 or 2016. His approval rating currently stands at 44%. In August 2016, a paltry 33% of Americans had a positive view of him – but he went on to win.What’s more, in each of the three crucial battleground states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, Harris is ahead by only four points, according to the latest survey. That’s welcome progress, to be sure, but it’s not enough when you recall that Trump put on nine points between August and November in those states in 2016 and closed the gap to a photo-finish in 2020.Harris may be more charismatic than either of the Democratic standard-bearers in those earlier contests, but she has vulnerabilities of her own. She is clearly a figure of the “coastal elites”: a wealthy Californian, she has no equivalent of the Scranton Joe persona available to Biden. Both she and her running mate, the Minnesota governor Tim Walz, have a history of progressive positions that anyone with a memory knows Republicans can twist into a caricature of leftwing radicalism. True, Walz’s vibe is cuddly midwestern dad – and there’s good evidence that, these days, a politician’s vibe matters more than their record – but there’s still a job to do. It’s almost a universal truth of contemporary politics that any party not of the right has to go much further than it would like to reassure voters in the centre. (Just ask Keir Starmer.) By that measure, the Democratic nominee may still have some distance to travel.Above all, and paradoxically, it’s Harris’s astonishing early success that contains risk. It has encouraged Democrats to believe that, in ditching Biden, the hard work has already been done, that the menace of a second Trump presidency has been averted. But this remains a perilously close contest in a sharply divided nation. As we have seen twice in recent years, Republicans enjoy a structural advantage in the electoral college that means that a Democrat can win the popular vote by a resounding margin – and still lose.So, yes, Harris has made a dream start. Trump is flailing. But it is far, far too early to celebrate. In the autumn, Americans will take their traditional second look at the two candidates. There will be TV debates and the hard yards of getting voters not to share memes on TikTok but off the couch and to the polling booth. This race is far from over – and if the last, turbulent decade has taught us anything, it’s that it is always too soon to count out Donald Trump.

      Jonathan Freedland is a Guardian columnist More