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      The primaries are mere formalities. Trump is Republicans’ once and future king | Lloyd Green

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      On Tuesday night, Donald Trump emerged as the winner of New Hampshire’s Republican primary and presumptive Republican presidential nominee, handily defeating Nikki Haley. He is the first non-incumbent Republican to win both Iowa and New Hampshire. South Carolina’s contest is next month and those that follow are formalities on the road to coronation.The Republican party belongs to him. “It has to be Trump as long as … he can fog a mirror,” Steve Bannon told Jonathan Karl of ABC News. Haley has pledged to remain in the race, but the fall campaign has begun. As the polls closed in New Hampshire, the Biden White House announced a campaign shake-up. This is not a well-oiled machine.For the third time, Trump is his party’s standard bearer. Maybe this run will be a charm, so to speak. Maybe for the first time he will garner a plurality, if not outright majority, of the popular vote, a feat that has previously eluded him.By those metrics, Hillary Clinton bested him in 2016 and Joe Biden did the same four years later. To put a point on it, no non-incumbent Republican since George HW Bush in 1988 has garnered that level of national support. Rather, like George W Bush in 2000, Trump owes his initial win to the mechanics of the electoral college.Election day 2024, however, may be different. The Democrats had best be prepared for that possibility and for the day after. At the moment, Biden lags Trump in trial heats. Among independents, the president trails by as many as 10 points. Beyond that, Biden, 81, exudes frailty. His speeches are dull affairs, often more closely watched for signs of infirmity, as opposed to policy.His mantra of democracy being on the line in 2024 is true. Yet it repeatedly falls flat. In too many instances, he discounts prevailing public sentiment. Popularism, the notion that politicians ought to follow the polls and do what’s electorally expedient, is honored more often than not in the breach. Triangulation, as mastered by Bill Clinton, is a thing of the past.To illustrate, Biden continues to double down on porous borders, poking a stick in the eye of public opinion. His win on Monday before the supreme court on Texas and its razor-wire barriers may eventually prove politically self-injurious. The justice department may have scored a victory for federal supremacy and executive power at the expense of Biden’s own standing.Beyond that, no Republican sits in the cabinet, breaking a tradition upheld by re-election-minded Democrats. Barack Obama placed Republicans Robert Gates at the Pentagon and Ray LaHood, a former Illinois congressman, at transportation. Appointing Arizona’s Cindy McCain, wife of the late Republican nominee and Trump nemesis, and Jeff Flake, a former Arizona senator, as ambassadors doesn’t quite make the cut. Out of country, out of mind.In case Biden needs further reminding, he didn’t win in a landslide. Obama’s vice-president never was and never will be the second coming of FDR, much as he attempts to convince himself that he is “transformative”.Meanwhile, Trump praises authoritarians. He vows to act as a dictator on day one, at least for a few hours anyway. Take him seriously on that and wonder if he means it literally or not.What dictator can push himself away from the table of dictatorship after just one day? Just before the New Hampshire voting, he mused about 12 more years in office and let the word “fascist” slip from his tongue.America ought to be frightened, but less than a majority actually fears the prospect of Trump as American Caesar. The rest is open to arguments that Biden is over his head and that Kamala Harris should have starred in Veep, the HBO sitcom, rather than be a heartbeat from the Oval Office.Trump is the strongman his base yearned for. Back in 2016, Paul LePage, then governor of Maine, made it explicit: “We need a Donald Trump to show some authoritarian power in our country.” So much for 1776, the declaration of independence and the US constitution.As in Iowa, Haley’s candidacy served as a magnet for high-end suburbanites, a constituency whose clout diminishes daily within the Republican party. Looking back, she never had a chance.Haley mulled cuts to social security and raising the age for retirement. These days, Americans live medically challenged lives. Chronic illness supplants death on life’s back nine. Her pitch might have been designed for her donors, and there are too few of them to matter.Under Trump, the party of Lincoln has been transformed into a mixed martial arts octagon. The ex-president channels his core supporters’ resentments better than anyone. Theirs is a symbiotic relationship. Gladiator, the Oscar-winning Ridley Scott film about Commodus, the debauched and unhinged Roman emperor, remains the movie for our time.
      Lloyd Green is an attorney in New York and served in the US Department of Justice from 1990 to 1992 More

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      Ron DeSantis failed because Trump’s base wants the man himself, not an imitation | Andrew Gawthorpe

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      So long, Ron. After a poor showing in the Iowa caucuses, Ron DeSantis has dropped out of the Republican presidential primary and endorsed Donald Trump. This outcome has looked inevitable ever since the campaign’s botched launch announcement on Twitter, but it was surprising how quickly and totally DeSantis surrendered after losing just a single contest. Many people had heralded DeSantis as the man who could take down Trump, but it was not to be. His campaign began with a whimper – then ended with one too.The political flaws of DeSantis and his campaign have been so numerous that it’s amazing the Florida governor ever generated so much buzz. He looked politically impressive operating in the safely conservative state of Florida, but he was completely unprepared for the intensity of competitive national politics. He lacked the empathy and personal warmth necessary to connect with voters and donors alike. He proved a poor administrator. He tried to run on his management of the Covid-19 pandemic when voters had moved on. Worst of all, he could offer no plausible reason why Trump voters should opt for him rather than for the real thing.Despite all of this, DeSantis found huge success among a certain class of Republican pundits and donors. At one point he was hailed by the Murdoch press as “DeFuture”, and conservative writers fell over one another to praise him as the Trump who “gets things done”. When someone so flawed has so many boosters, it’s worth asking about the motivation of the boosters.In this case, the DeSantis campaign was promoted by a set of conservative elites who saw the opportunity for a kind of “Trumpism without Trump”. DeSantis drew support from people who were happy with the broad direction of the Republican party under Trump, but had doubts about the former president’s competence. Since his victory in 2016, Trump has been a serial loser of elections who invests little time in trying to implement policies, preferring to focus instead on the melodrama of his own political and legal struggles. DeSantis, by contrast, exudes the kind of grim, thuggish determination of Viktor Orbán, the Hungarian prime minister whose policies have made him a hero of the American nationalist right.As an electoral proposition, this vision was flawed from the get-go. The idea of “Trumpism without Trump” was to take Maga content and present it in some more palatable form. But this ignores the fact that for many grassroots Republicans, Trump’s form is his content. They support him not because of the concrete policies he will implement but because of who he is and what he represents. The unhinged style of communication, the self-pitying beefs with “the establishment”, the unfiltered racism and bigotry – these are the essence of Trumpism, not paraphernalia which can be discarded.For decades, Republican elites have believed they could channel and control the populism and bigotry of their party’s base. A video from the 2008 election which periodically goes viral of John McCain defending Barack Obama in the face of a racist question from a voter, represents the exception in this history rather than the norm. As a rule, Republican donors and politicians have winked at or actively encouraged the worst instincts of their base, believing they could be harnessed and ridden to victory. The DeSantis candidacy was just the latest example of this. But now the base is in the saddle, and what it wants is Trumpism red in tooth and claw – not some bloodless imitation.However doomed it was at the polls, there might have been some redemptive quality in the DeSantis project if it had offered a challenge to the yawning ethical chasm at the heart of the Republican party. But rather than denouncing the cruelty towards immigrants, women and trans people that pervades the modern conservative movement, DeSantis merely promised to pursue it with more ruthless efficiency. He showed indifference to the suffering of the people who got in his way, such as the migrants he transported to Martha’s Vineyard and then abandoned for the purposes of a political stunt. The experience made them feel, one said, “like cattle” – yet DeSantis defends the action to this day.The fact that supporters of the DeSantis project were not actually trying to challenge the core premises and practices of Trumpism will make it easier for them to take the next step: reverting to support for Trump. After he dropped out, DeSantis endorsed Trump with unseemly speed and it may take some of his backers a little longer to come around. But just as in 2016, Republican politicians and media figures will inevitably follow their base and resume backing the former president, even as he engages in Hitlerian rhetoric about migrants “poisoning the blood” of America and promises to be a dictator “on day one”.As John McCain showed in 2008, there is an alternative course available to former DeSantis backers, if they wanted to take it. They could say publicly what many of them know privately – that while Trump poses a unique danger to the republic, Joe Biden is a decent, patriotic man with whom they happen to have some policy disagreements. They could lament the grip that a racist and authoritarian figure has on such a large segment of their party, and even try to challenge it. But they will not, because that’s never what the DeSantis candidacy was really about it. Instead, they’ll get in line behind Trump – and march themselves and everyone else closer and closer to disaster.
      Andrew Gawthorpe is a historian of the United States at Leiden University and the creator of America Explained, a podcast and newsletter More

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      Time to back Trump: Republican donors accept the inevitable

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      Vivek Ramaswamy urged the crowd to end the primary right here. Doug Burgum told them to think of safety and prosperity. Tim Scott posed a series of questions that culminated with: “How many y’all want me to stop talking so you can hear from your next president, Donald J Trump?”As the three failed US presidential candidates turned endorsers stood alongside Trump on stage in Laconia, New Hampshire, on Monday, the crowd chanted “Four more years!” and the message to Republicans was clear: join us now or be cast into the political wilderness.The show of unity exemplified the breakneck speed with which elected officials, rightwing media and megadonors are consolidating around Trump as their seemingly inevitable nominee in 2024. Trump told the rally: “Now is the time for the Republican party to come together. We have to unify … We’re all in the same team, 100% focused on [Joe] Biden and beating him in November.”Buoyed by a record win in last week’s Iowa caucuses and the exit of the Florida governor, Ron DeSantis, Trump heads into Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary election with only one opponent standing in his way: Nikki Haley, a former US ambassador to the UN. If the former president wins convincingly, as opinion polls suggest, Haley will face renewed pressure to end the anti-Trump resistance.Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center thinktank in Washington DC, said: “The two-thirds of the party that’s Maga-friendly has largely coalesced around Trump, and is continuing to do so. It would take a miracle for Haley to even make it a race at this point. Miracles happen, but you don’t predict them.”He added: “Anyone who wants to remain viable in today’s Republican party will either fall into line publicly, or be quiet in not falling into line. And that’s what you will see among the donor class.”It is a striking contrast from the 2016 primary season, when multiple candidates continued to battle Trump into May. It is also very different mood music from a year ago when, in the wake of disappointing midterm elections, there were rumblings of discontent in the Republican party and a desire to turn the page.The shift was evident in the donor class. Club For Growth, an anti-tax group, and Americans For Prosperity, founded by the billionaire industrialist Koch brothers, poured millions of dollars into an effort to stop Trump. Last May, for example, Club For Growth released a golf-themed ad attacking him over his plan for social security. Americans for Prosperity endorsed Haley and by December had spent $4m to boost her.But just as in 2016, when Jeb Bush was the establishment choice, the primary has demonstrated that money is no substitute for having the right candidate at the right time. Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina received backing from high-profile donors but was outshone in debates, and never gained traction in the polls. He withdrew and endorsed Trump.As DeSantis’s profile soared, he enjoyed an influx of cash, only to burn it through it rapidly with over-hiring, staff shakeups and frequent “resets”. Last November Robert Bigelow, one of DeSantis’s most prominent funders, announced that he was switching allegiance to Trump. By some estimates, DeSantis and an allied Super Pac spent at least $53m in Iowa – a return of roughly $2,262 per vote as he lost by nearly 30 percentage points.Meanwhile, Trump proved more resilient that expected. He weaponised a series of criminal indictments and court appearances to rally his base and raise funds. Polls showed him beating Biden in a hypothetical match-up, undercutting the electability argument. As a former president and reality TV star, he enjoyed the kind of celebrity that money can’t buy.Olsen said: “Money has always been an overrated feature of politics. Money helps when it’s delivering a message that resonates. What the big money in the Republican party has been doing for the last decade or more has been getting behind candidates whose message does not resonate.”The Trump campaign has relished the failure of big-money groups trying to tear him down. Speaking from Charleston, South Carolina, the Trump fundraiser Ed McMullen said: “One of the great stories of this primary cycle is that the hundreds of millions of dollars spent against Donald Trump have only fuelled the support for him.“People don’t want oligarchs in the United States determining who the president’s gonna be. They are absolutely turning to the president, despite hundreds of millions of dollars in negative TV ads.”McMullen, a former ambassador to Switzerland who was at the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos last week, claims that dozens of DeSantis and Haley donors have been calling him since the Iowa caucuses, wanting to back Trump instead.“The fact that Iowa happened to be so strong for the president sent a pretty strong shockwaves throughout the little town of Davos, where many business leaders intentionally sought me out to find ways that they could be engaged and support the president and get on board,” he said.Not all of Haley’s donors are buckling. Along with Americans for Prosperity, they include Reid Hoffman, the founder of LinkedIn, and Stanley Druckenmiller, a hedge fund billionaire who will co-host a fundraiser for her on 30 January.But some speak of being pressured to abandon Haley and come into the fold. Fred Zeidman, a longtime Haley fundraiser from Texas, told Reuters: “I get calls all the time.”He summed up what Trump’s allies tell him: “We’re going to win. You’re going to lose. Don’t you want to be on the right team?”Those calls are likely to intensify if Trump wins big on Tuesday night. Having realised which way the wind was blowing, hesitant Republicans are rushing to get back in his good graces. It would be no surprise if a procession of senators, representatives, governors and former cabinet officials, along with donors, make a pilgrimage to Mar-a-Lago in Florida to pledge allegiance.Ed Rogers, a veteran of several national campaigns, said: “I would not have guessed this would happen a year ago. But for the last two or three months it’s been clear that none of the other campaigns were going to beat the Trump campaign.”“The only thing that’s gonna keep Trump from being the Republican nominee is for him to step on a banana peel or some act-of-God lightning strike.” More

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      Trump and his toadies are trying to rewrite history so he’s not an insurrectionist | Sidney Blumenthal

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      OJ Simpson decided he could make some “blood money”, as he called it, by writing a “hypothetical” book on the murders of his estranged wife Nicole Brown Simpson and her friend Ron Goldman entitled If I Did It. When it was announced in 2006, the outrage was so overwhelming that the publisher, HarperCollins, owned by Rupert Murdoch, fired the editor, Judith Regan, and cancelled a scheduled Fox network special. The OJ book fiasco appeared to be a rare moment of Murdoch sensitivity, but he was concerned that the association besmirched his own reputation.A week after Donald Trump’s attorney argued in the DC district court that he could not be prosecuted for his attempted coup culminating in the January 6 assault on the Capitol and could order the assassination of any opponent, Trump took to his Truth Social account on 18 January to insist that he “MUST HAVE COMPLETE & TOTAL PRESIDENTIAL IMMUNITY” even for “EVENTS THAT ‘CROSS THE LINE’”. If the glove fits, you must still acquit.Trump’s If I Did It moment was followed, not with repulsion, but instead with his former warm embrace by Murdoch’s Fox News, reflexive bended knee by the entire Republican leadership, and Polonius-like advice from JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon to Democrats to “grow up” and “listen” to Maga.After 6 January 2021, Murdoch swore that Trump was an “asshole”, “a fucking idiot” and a “loser”. Fox News itself agreed to pay $787m to settle a case alleging that Fox News broadcast falsehoods to advance Trump’s lies about the Dominion Voting Systems company. The day after Trump’s OJ-like confession, Fox News host Brian Kilmeade said: “He’s gone out of his way not to look back,” and “there’s a sereneness about him.” Fox’s Laura Ingraham urged Ron DeSantis “to step aside and endorse Trump”. Murdoch had touted DeSantis in his New York Post and on Fox, but he is now back to round-the-clock promotion of Trump, whom he appeared to privately wish dead: “This would all be solved if … ” If I Did It …The day after the US Capitol attack in 2021, Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase felt morally compelled to issue a formal corporate statement: “This is not who we are as a people or a country.” But at the Davos World Economic Forum last week, Dimon said that Democrats should “grow up”, “listen” to “Maga”, stop “scapegoating” Trump supporters, and “treat other people with respect”. “I think people should be a little more respectful of our fellow citizens.”Wearing a Ukrainian flag pin in his lapel, but seemingly unaware of its meaning, Dimon remarked that Trump was “kind of right about Nato”. Trump, according to his national security adviser John Bolton, pledged to wreck Nato, and bluntly told European leaders that he would not honor the US treaty commitment to defend them if they were attacked.After Trump’s Iowa romp and apparent unobstructed path to the Republican nomination, the corporate statesman, holding forth from the pinnacle of globalism, hedged. His studied ambivalence came a week after his bank reported that in 2023, under Joe Biden, its profits surged to its best year in its history. But Dimon still swiveled. “I have to be prepared for both. I will be prepared for both. We will deal with both.”Dimon’s grave words after 6 January 2021 were from a discarded balance sheet: “Our elected leaders have a responsibility to call for an end to the violence, accept the results, and, as our democracy has for hundreds of years, support the peaceful transition of power.” His condescension against condescension against the Trumpetariat is risk management. But his hypocrisy is more than interest on his capital. His feigned empathy about Maga as an oppressed minority community garbles bits and pieces of the half-digested drivel of table talk of Republican billionaires with whom he breaks bread.While Dimon and others at the Davos aerie considered the annual Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report, which identified disinformation and misinformation from artificial intelligence as the greatest short-term threat to democracy, a Manhattan courtroom was hearing the second defamation case of the adjudicated rapist Trump against E Jean Carroll.Carroll testified that she had been inundated with death threats from Trump supporters. Trump’s incitement against the judges and their staff overseeing his various trials has provoked constant death threats against them, and they are surrounded by security details. The jurors’ anonymity is closely guarded to protect their safety. Trump’s antics are deliberate tactics of intimidation and political base mobilization. The shadow of stochastic violence hangs over the justice system. Everyone under threat “listens” to Maga.While Dimon suggested learning from Maga, Trump provided educational lessons in two courtrooms. In his New York trial for financial fraud, he broke the judge’s conditions that he should not to attack the court or use the forum to make a “campaign speech”. After the closing arguments, Trump raged in the court that the judge has an “agenda”, and that the trial is a “political witch hunt” and “a fraud on me”. Judge Arthur Engoron, who would probably have declared another defendant in contempt, told Trump’s attorney: “Control your client.”At the E Jean Carroll trial, Trump interrupted Carroll’s lawyer repeatedly with loud remarks from the defendant’s table. Judge Lewis Kaplan staid that if he continued his disruptions he could be excluded from the courtroom.“I would love it,” Trump replied.“I know you would, because you just can’t control yourself in this circumstance, apparently. You just can’t,” Kaplan said.“Neither can you,” Trump countered, using one of his favorite gambits – accusing the person calling him out for his actions of doing the same thing. (“Puppet, puppet, you’re the puppet,” he shouted at Hillary Clinton in a debate, to claim she was Putin’s plaything.)During the lunch break in the trial, Trump posted a series of attacks on the judge, calling him a “seething and hostile Clinton-appointed Judge”. “He is abusive, rude, and obviously not impartial but, that’s the way this crooked system works!” Another defendant would have been held in contempt, subjected to a gag order, or excluded from the proceedings. His Maga followers were listening and watching.Then, at a New Hampshire rally, on 20 January, Trump staged an Orwellian exercise in projection, appearing before a gigantic sign reading: “Biden Attacks Democracy.”The very day of Trump’s cross-the-line If I Did It statement, the Republican congressional leaders en masse affixed their signatures to a document unprecedented in US political history. It was a declaration of unconditional surrender to Trump. In an amicus brief filed before the US supreme court in the case in which the Colorado supreme court ruled to remove Trump from the ballot for engaging in an insurrection under the constitution’s 14th amendment, section 3, they defended him as an innocent victim. To depict the guiltless Trump, they offered a story of alternative facts.During the protests in the summer of 2020, he was the real target of violence: “Violence aimed towards the sitting President was perhaps unsurprising … ” Then, during the election, “both sides could attempt to label the other as having actively opposed the peaceful transfer of power to the rightful winner, or at least being morally complicit in those actions – and thus both Trump and Biden partisans could try to disqualify each other under Section 3, in tit-for-tat … ” But Trump on 6 January 2021 was the voice of peace and reason, telling his supporters to “go home now.”The amicus brief that is the white flag raised by the congressional Republicans has been signed by 44 senators and 135 members of the House, all the leadership in both chambers. The signers are a confederacy of cynics and co-conspirators.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionOf the senators, Ted Cruz, Lindsey Graham and Mike Lee were almost certainly privy to far more of the “stop the steal” movement, the fake electors scheme and the events of January 6 than they have revealed. The Georgia grand jury recommended Graham’s indictment for election fraud, but he was let off the hook when the prosecutor opted not to charge him.Of the House members, speaker Mike Johnson and Jim Jordan, among others, were extensively involved in Trump’s plot. Johnson, among other things, was central to organizing objections to certification of the electoral college count. Jordan refused to honor the subpoena of the January 6 committee.“Leader Mitch McConnell” is listed on the amicus brief. On the day of January 6, McConnell was hustled by the Capitol police to a secure location, where with Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer they frantically called for military intervention to end the assault. McConnell was in physical danger. He is frail. He has unstable balance. He cannot run. He had a bad fall the year before, fracturing his shoulder. He has heart trouble.That evening, after the Capitol was cleared of the attackers, McConnell quaked with anger. “The mob was fed lies,” he said. “They were provoked by the president and other powerful people.” He told his staffers that Trump was a “despicable human being”.He thought Trump was done. Now, McConnell has lent his name to a legal document that claims Trump did not “engage” in an insurrection.The brief, prepared by a Federalist Society chop-shop of rightwing lawyers, provides an à la carte menu for the conservative majority on the US supreme court to select an excuse for Trump. There are the sophistries – the president is not an “officer” of the US; his oath differs by a word from that of a senator; Trump didn’t “engage in” an insurrection.There is whataboutism – as in, what about antifa in Portland and Maxine Waters. There is twisted illogic – the falsehood that a state lacks power to disqualify a candidate because it “interferes” with the congressional authority to remove a “disability” through an amnesty.There is constitutional nonsense – that the 14th amendment is not self-executing; that the qualification mentioned in the 20th amendment, the “lame-duck” amendment, that prevented a lame duck Congress from choosing a president and established the line of succession in case of an electoral deadlock or a death, had anything to do with the qualification regarding insurrection provided by the 14th amendment, section 3.In its defense of Trump, the brief winds up conceding the entire case. Invoking the non sequitur of the 20th amendment, the lawyers argue it “confirms that a candidate may be elected President even if he is not qualified to hold the office”. Splitting hairs, they have beheaded Trump.Finally, in an even weirder conclusion, they cite George Orwell’s 1984 to defend Trump as the victim of authoritarian tyranny. “It is hard to imagine an actual insurrectionist quickly asking for peace and encouraging disbandment. But once ‘engage in’ is defined so broadly, even significant countervailing evidence can simply be labeled as a ruse, as insufficient, or even as an implied recognition and praise of ongoing violence. Enterprising state officials, in other words, may conclude that ‘Peace means War.’ Cf. George Orwell, 1984.”But, then, after all that, Trump demands immunity for “EVENTS THAT ‘CROSS THE LINE” – If I Did It.For McConnell, his fellow signers, and the Republicans racing to endorse Trump, the clock is striking thirteen.
      Sidney Blumenthal is a Guardian US columnist. He is a former senior adviser to President Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton, has published three books of a projected five-volume political life of Abraham Lincoln: A Self-Made Man, Wrestling With His Angel and All the Powers of Earth More

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      Of course Trump is dominating the primaries. That doesn’t mean he’ll beat Biden | Robert Reich

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      The mainstream media is flabbergasted at Trump’s success in sweeping the Iowa caucuses, dominating the polls and destroying all his rivals but Nikki Haley before Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary.CNN is awestruck, calling Trump’s “landslide victory in Iowa” a “stunning show of strength”.The New York Times is dumbfounded, talking of an “expected Trump coronation” and also the “power of his political machine”.Time magazine marvels at his “commanding position” to secure the Republican nomination, and that “nothing has slowed him down”.The Washington Post’s Dan Balz writes that “the end of any real competition could come very soon”.Headline after headline offers the same breathless, spellbound story: “Trump is dominating.” “Disciplined”. “Ruthless”. “Hugely effective”. “Remarkable”.Earth to the mainstream media: this is dangerous nonsense.Why should Trump’s dominance be surprising? He’s dominated the Republican party since 2016. He dominates by ridiculing opponents, blasting anyone who stands in his way, bullying, browbeating and bellowing. The media eats it up. He’s outrageous and entertaining.Trump’s success in last week’s Iowa caucuses wasn’t a “stunning show of strength”. It was a display of remarkable weakness. He got just 56,260 votes. There are 2,083,979 registered voters in Iowa. Fewer than 3% of Iowans voted for him.According to an entrance poll, only 46% of the Republican caucus-goers considered themselves part of the Maga movement. Nearly 50% said they were not. Three-quarters of these non-Maga Republican voters opposed Trump.Over 30% said they would not consider Trump fit to be president if he were convicted of a crime.His performance in New Hampshire will probably reveal similar weaknesses.What seems to be lost on the media is that Trump was president for four years. In effect, he’s the incumbent Republican president.That’s not because he says he won the 2020 election. It’s because he was in fact president.Former presidents have a huge advantage in their party’s primaries because they control their party apparatus. Presidents who have served just one term and seek the nomination for another are always re-nominated by their party, as was Trump in 2020 – and presumably will be again in 2024.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionOf course Trump will be the Republican nominee. Trump was the party’s presumptive nominee before he even announced he was running again.What’s remarkable is that he nonetheless attracted so many competitors for the nomination, who raised a lot of money for their primary runs. Tim Scott, Niki Haley, and Ron DeSantis finished September with a total of $26.7m available for use in the primary. That’s no small change.It’s also easy to forget that Trump began his third bid for the White House just days after Republicans took a beating in the midterms. That was the third straight national election in which Trump was a drag on his party. Across the country, his hand-picked candidates, who embraced his big lie that the 2020 election was stolen, lost critical races.The danger in the mainstream media’s awestruck coverage of Trump right now – making a big deal out of his winning the Iowa caucuses, dominating the polls, pushing out all rivals except Haley, and almost surely winning today’s New Hampshire primary – is that it creates a false impression that Trump is unstoppable, all the way through the general election.But no one should confuse Trump’s performance in the Republican primaries for success in the presidential election.When Americans actually focus on the presidential election and the stark reality of choosing between Biden and Trump, I expect they will once again choose Biden.Even if Trump is not yet criminally convicted, I doubt that a majority of Americans will want for their president a man who has 91 criminal charges against him, who has been impeached twice, who has orchestrated an attempted coup, who has profited financially while president, who has stolen top-secret documents and who has been judged to be a rapist.
      Robert Reich, a former US secretary of labor, is a professor of public policy at the University of California, Berkeley, and the author of Saving Capitalism: For the Many, Not the Few and The Common Good. His newest book, The System: Who Rigged It, How We Fix It, is out now. He is a Guardian US columnist. His newsletter is at robertreich.substack.com More

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      Nikki Haley chases an upset in bitter New Hampshire face-off with Trump

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      New Hampshire will hold its first-in-the nation primary on Tuesday in what may be the last chance Republicans have to stop Donald Trump from running away with the nomination, as Nikki Haley chases an upset in the Granite state.Eight days after the former president’s record-setting victory in the Iowa caucuses, he is now locked in an increasingly bitter showdown with Haley, who has staked her candidacy on a strong showing in the more moderate New Hampshire. Ron DeSantis, the former Florida governor, exited the race on Sunday, adding his name to the stack of Republican officials consolidating behind Trump.Trump leads by double-digit margins but is considered more vulnerable in the state, where independent voters make up nearly 40% of the electorate and can choose to vote in either party’s primary.“We always buck the trend in New Hampshire,” the state’s Republican governor, Chris Sununu, told voters as he escorted Haley across the state on the eve of the election.Sununu, one of the few Trump critics left in the party, said a show of support in New Hampshire would vault her into next month’s contest in South Carolina. He has suggested Haley could win the primary outright. More recently, he has moderated expectations, insisting that she has already exceeded expectations as the only candidate still standing in the primary against Trump.Republicans are predicting record turnout – and good weather, seen as a possible boon to Haley who is relying more heavily on voters who don’t typically participate in the party’s primary.The stakes could not be higher for Haley. She is barnstorming the state, from the “suburbs to the seacoast”, trying to persuade anti-Trump independents and open-minded conservatives to back her long-shot bid.Trump by contrast has been in and out of the state, holding raucous evening rallies between appearances in court. New Hampshire propelled Trump to the Republican nomination in 2016 after he came in second in the Iowa caucuses. This year, Trump hopes to notch a victory large enough to effectively extinguish Haley’s campaign.For much of her nearly year-long campaign, Haley carefully avoided Trump, instead drawing implicit contrasts with calls for a “new generation” of leaders in Washington and a proposal to instate cognitive tests for older politicians. But in the final days before New Hampshire’s primary, she went after him more aggressively, questioning his mental fitness and accusing him of cozying up to dictators and autocrats.Trump responded with insults and misrepresentations while accusing her campaign of relying on the support of “globalists” and liberals to win. In an ugly series of social media posts, he revived the birtherism conspiracy that she was ineligible to be president because her parents were not US citizens when she was born. This is false; Haley, the South Carolina-born daughter of immigrants from India, is eligible. Trump also appeared to mock her Indian ancestry by referring to – and mispelling – her given name, Nimarata. Haley has always gone by her middle name, Nikki.Haley and her allies insist she has a path forward even if she doesn’t pull off an upset. Improving on her third-place finish in Iowa would be enough. But if she can’t win in New Hampshire, with an electorate seen as far more friendly to her brand of Republicanism, analysts said it will be hard to make the pitch to voters – and donors – that she can win anywhere else.Haley has scheduled a rally in North Charleston, South Carolina, on Wednesday night. It will be accompanied by the launch of a $4m investment in television, radio and digital advertising to air across South Carolina.Democrats will also hold a primary on Tuesday, but Joe Biden’s name won’t be on the ballot. Though turnout is expected to be low, Democrats will have the choice between voting for Dean Phillips, a Democratic congressman from Minnesota, and Marianne Williamson, an author and self-help guru who ran for president in 2020. Meanwhile, some of the president’s supporters in the state have urged Democrats to write in Biden’s name on their ballots. More

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      Biden campaign calls for investigation of New Hampshire robocalls impersonating US president – as it happened

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      Joe Biden’s re-election campaign has called on New Hampshire authorities to investigate a spate of robocalls to voters in which a voice that sounds like the president encourages them not to participate in Tuesday’s primary.Biden’s name is not appearing on the primary ballot, since Democrats have decided to hold their first nominating contest in South Carolina next month. But some in the party are encouraging their voters to write in the president’s name, both as a show of support and to pressure the Democratic National Committee to give New Hampshire, which has historically been the second state to vote, a more prominent role in the nominating process.In a statement, Biden-Harris campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez said:
      This matter has already been referred to the New Hampshire Attorney General, and the campaign is actively discussing additional actions to take immediately. Spreading disinformation to suppress voting and deliberately undermine free and fair elections will not stand, and fighting back against any attempt to undermine our democracy will continue to be a top priority for this campaign.
      Nikki Haley made the most of the hours remaining before tomorrow’s primary in New Hampshire, crisscrossing the Granite state alongside governor Chris Sununu in a bid to lure votes away from Donald Trump. But polls continue to show the former president with a big lead, underscoring the difficulty Haley will have in overcoming his status as the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination.Trump is expected in New Hampshire later today, after appearing this morning in a New York City courtroom for a hearing in author E Jean Carroll’s defamation lawsuit against him, where he was set to testify. The session was unexpectedly adjourned after a juror felt ill, and one of Trump’s lawyers was exposed to Covid-19.Here’s what else happened today:
      Kamala Harris assailed Trump for his role in overturning Roe v Wade on the 51st anniversary of the supreme court decision that allowed abortion access nationwide.
      Nikki Haley has avoided talking much about abortion, even though she has signalled she would be fine with restricting the procedure federally. Some voters who support abortion rights are fine with that.
      Judge Judy delivered her verdict on the presidential race by stumping for Haley in New Hampshire.
      Elise Stefanik, who is seen as potential running mate for Trump, said the adjournment of his defamation trial was “blatant election interference”. In reality, it was requested by the former president’s legal team.
      Someone is making robocalls to New Hampshire voters that sound like Joe Biden and encourage them not to vote in Tuesday’s primary, prompting the president’s re-election campaign to call for an investigation.
      As she blitzes the state, Nikki Haley talks about keeping taxes low, the military strong and the border secure. One issue she does not mention: abortion.On the 51st anniversary of Roe v Wade, Joe Biden and Democrats across the country are railing against Republicans, calling them “anti-abortion extremists” who would impose a federal ban on the procedure if they win back power this fall.Haley calls herself “pro-life” but has promised to seek consensus as president. In Iowa, where evangelical Christians dominate the caucuses, Haley signaled her willingness, if elected, to sign any restrictions that reached her desk.But in comparatively moderate New Hampshire, she has mostly shut down inquiries about what kind of federal limit she would support, insisting that any legislation is purely theoretical without 60 votes in the Senate – as she told one curious onlooker at a stop in Epping on Sunday.Across the state, several pro-choice independent voters said the risk of a Trump presidency worried them more than Haley’s views on abortion.“I’ve long ago accepted that I can’t agree with a candidate on everything,” said Carole Alfano, an independent who met Haley at the campaign stop in the town of Epping. “We’ll part ways on that.”Alfano backed Biden in 2020, but plans to support Haley in Tuesday’s primary.In Derry, Marie Mulroy is ecstatic about the prospect of a Haley nomination even though she believes abortion should remain legal.“We’ll agree to disagree on that,” she said.Can Nikki Haley pull a shock win in New Hampshire out of the bag?She’s the last candidate standing against Donald Trump, after Florida governor Ron DeSantis exited the race and endorsed the former president on Sunday. Host of the Guardian’s Politics Weekly America podcast Jonathan Freedland headed out on the campaign trail in the Granite state to find out the answer:Joe Biden’s re-election campaign marked Roe v Wade’s 51st anniversary by debuting an advertisement in which Texas obstetrician-gynecologist Austin Dennard discusses how she had to leave the state to get an abortion after finding out that her fetus would not survive.Who’s to blame? Donald Trump, as Dennard makes clear. Expect to see tons of this sort of messaging coming from the campaigns of the president and other Democrats over the coming months:On the 51st anniversary of the supreme court’s Roe v Wade decision, Kamala Harris attacked Donald Trump for his role in appointing justices who overturned the precedent and allowed states to ban abortion.The vice-president spoke during a visit today to Wisconsin, a battleground state that will be crucial to deciding the outcome of the November election. Democrats plan to campaign on restoring access to abortion, after the 2022 decision in Dobbs v Jackson Women’s Health Organization that curtailed abortion access in many states.Harris did not hold back from assailing the former president, citing his comments that he was “proud” of his role in getting three justices confirmed to the court, all of whom voted to overturn Roe. Here’s what she had to say:Joe Biden’s re-election campaign has called on New Hampshire authorities to investigate a spate of robocalls to voters in which a voice that sounds like the president encourages them not to participate in Tuesday’s primary.Biden’s name is not appearing on the primary ballot, since Democrats have decided to hold their first nominating contest in South Carolina next month. But some in the party are encouraging their voters to write in the president’s name, both as a show of support and to pressure the Democratic National Committee to give New Hampshire, which has historically been the second state to vote, a more prominent role in the nominating process.In a statement, Biden-Harris campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez said:
      This matter has already been referred to the New Hampshire Attorney General, and the campaign is actively discussing additional actions to take immediately. Spreading disinformation to suppress voting and deliberately undermine free and fair elections will not stand, and fighting back against any attempt to undermine our democracy will continue to be a top priority for this campaign.
      David Scanlan, the New Hampshire secretary of state, predicted Republican voter participation in the primaries will reach 322,000, eclipsing 2016’s total, when Republicans set a record of 287,652 votes. In 2020, it was Democrats who saw record turnout for their competitive primary, with 300,368 votes cast.Before a deadline in October, as many as 4,000 registered Democrats changed their party affiliation to “undeclared,” suggesting some plan to vote in the Republican primary.A Monmouth University Poll-Washington Post poll released today found that the number of registered New Hampshire independents who plan to vote in the Republican primary increased from 52% in November to 63%.More than a third of these voters said they voted for Biden in 2020, suggesting there could be a “measurable influx of Democratic-leaning independents” who will participate in Tuesday’s primary.In a conversation on Friday, Fergus Cullen, a former New Hampshire GOP chairman and prominent Trump opponent, said he did not see evidence that Haley had “lit a spark” among these voters in the way that might foretell “some kind of surge coming her way.”“People turn out when they are inspired, or they’re pissed off,” said Cullen, who had seen Haley on the campaign trail four times. “What we’re seeing is that people are not inspired, and they’re apathetic. And that means that they don’t show up.”New Hampshire’s secretary of state David Scanlan is predicting record turnout in the Republican primary, while governor Chris Sununu is joking that he is cashing in all of his political capital to ensure balmy weather for voters headed to the polls on Tuesday.That would be a stark contrast from Iowa, where arctic temperatures were blamed for the low turnout last week. Recent polling has shown Trump with a double digit lead in the state. But New Hampshire has a record of unpredictability, thanks to the large number of voters who proudly belong to neither party. They are not a monolith, but analysts believe that the more of them who choose to vote in the Republican primary, the better for Haley.“The only big X factor I see: how big is turnout?” said Dante Scala, a professor of Political Science and International Affairs at the University of New Hampshire.According to Scala, Haley is attempting something novel in New Hampshire. Republican presidential candidates who have pulled off wins in New Hampshire – such as John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012 – managed to appeal to the state’s independents while still pulling in a sizable chunk of the party faithful. (Independents, called “undeclared” voters in New Hampshire, can vote in either party’s primary.)This year, Trump has a lock on Republican base voters. To win, or even to come within striking distance of Trump, Scala said Haley will need to run up the score with these independent voters, some of whom could choose to vote in the sleepy Democratic primary or not at all if they feel the contest is a foregone conclusion.Scala said Haley’s test is whether she “inspired enough people to show up, who don’t normally show up, to get a turnout big enough that it swamps the Trump people and your mainstream Republican in New Hampshire.”Joe Biden spoke to UK prime minister Rishi Sunak on Monday about Gaza, Ukraine, and the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, White House spokesperson John Kirby said, AFP reported.From White House correspondent for AFP Danny Kemp:Judy Sheindlin, widely known as Judge Judy, told CNN on Monday that she would endorse Nikki Haley if she “were a frog”.During the interview with CNN’s Dana Bash, Judge Judy was asked if the reason she endorsed Haley was because Haley is a woman.“No, I would support her if she were a frog,” said the ever-colorful Sheindlin.“She’s capable. She’s poised,” Sheindlin added.Sheindlin said that neither Trump nor Biden have the “intellectual gravitas” to be US president.According to Sheindlin, she has only endorsed one presidential candidate before –the former New York mayor, Michael Bloomberg, during the 2020 presidential election.Sheindlin has campaigned for Haley ahead of the highly watched New Hampshire primary on Tuesday.Nikki Haley is making the most of the hours remaining before tomorrow’s primary in New Hampshire, crisscrossing the Granite state alongside governor Chris Sununu in a bid to lure votes away from Donald Trump. But polls continue to show the former president with a big lead, underscoring the difficulty Haley will have in overcoming his status as the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination. Trump is expected in New Hampshire later today, after appearing this morning in a New York City courtroom for a hearing in author E Jean Carroll’s defamation lawsuit against him, where he was set to testify. The session was abruptly adjourned after a juror felt ill, and one of Trump’s lawyers was exposed to Covid-19.Here’s what else has happened today so far:
      Judge Judy delivered her verdict on the presidential race by stumping for Haley in New Hampshire.
      Elise Stefanik, who is seen as potential running mate for Trump, said the adjournment of his defamation trial was “blatant election interference”. In reality, it was requested by the former president’s legal team.
      Someone is reportedly making robocalls to New Hampshire voters that sound like Joe Biden and encourage them not to vote in Tuesday’s primary. Supporters of a campaign to write in his name – he is not appearing on the ballot, in line with Democratic National Committee rules – say the calls are meant to undermine them.
      Donald Trump is clearly smarting from the ongoing defamation lawsuit against him by author E Jean Carroll, and a jury’s verdict last year that he sexually abused her. As the Guardian’s Sam Levine reports, his campaign yesterday barred a NBC News reporter who had pressed his ally Elise Stefanik for her thoughts on the verdict:Donald Trump’s presidential campaign reportedly blocked an NBC News journalist from covering campaign events in New Hampshire on Sunday.Sunday’s exclusion of NBC News correspondent Vaughn Hillyard came when he was set to serve as a pool reporter. Instead of having a pack of reporters follow a candidate everywhere, campaigns will often allow television, print, and radio news organizations to send a single pool reporter to travel with them – and those reporters in turn then send a readout to other news outlets.But on Sunday, Hillyard wrote in an email to the pool: “Your pooler was told that if he was the designated pooler by NBC News that the pool would be cut off for the day.”The email, which was subsequently published by several news organizations, added: “After affirming to the campaign that your pooler would attend the events, NBC News was informed at about 2.20pm that the pool would not be allowed to travel with Trump today.”Hillyard a day earlier had pressed New York congresswoman Elise Stefanik – said to be a potential Trump running mate – on whether she believed the ex-president had sexually assaulted E Jean Carroll.NBC News and Steven Cheung, a Trump campaign spokesperson, did not immediately return a request for comment.You don’t have to be Joe Biden for someone to make a robot of your likeness. As the Guardian’s Dan Milmo reports, Democratic congressman and presidential candidate Dean Phillips has his own AI impersonator:OpenAI has removed the account of the developer behind an artificial intelligence-powered bot impersonating the US presidential candidate Dean Phillips, saying it violated company policy.Phillips, who is challenging Joe Biden for the Democratic party candidacy, was impersonated by a ChatGPT-powered bot on the dean.bot site.The bot was backed by Silicon Valley entrepreneurs Matt Krisiloff and Jed Somers, who have started a Super Pac – a body that funds and supports political candidates – named We Deserve Better, supporting Phillips.San Francisco-based OpenAI said it had removed a developer account that violated its policies on political campaigning and impersonation.“We recently removed a developer account that was knowingly violating our API usage policies which disallow political campaigning, or impersonating an individual without consent,” said the company.The Phillips bot, created by AI firm Delphi, is now disabled. Delphi has been contacted for comment.A factor working against Nikki Haley in her quest to win the New Hampshire Republican primary is Donald Trump’s resounding victory in last week’s Iowa caucus.His triumph in the first state to vote in the GOP’s nomination process confirmed his status as the frontrunner for the nomination. But election turnout was low in the Hawkeye state, a fact Haley was keen to remind voters of in New Hampshire:Nikki Haley is spending the final moments before New Hampshire’s make-or-break primary getting out the vote with the state’s popular Republican governor, Chris Sununu by her side.“This is it. Twenty-four hours to go,” Sununu told the crowd at a packed, dimly lit veteran’s hall in Franklin. “All the momentum is at Nikki Haley’s back.”He told the voters not to pay any mind to the polls – unless it’s the ones showing Haley trouncing Joe Biden in a general election – and reminded them of their fiercely guarded reputation as the state that delivers political upsets.“We always buck the trend in New Hampshire,” he said. “It’s going to start tomorrow.”Haley reminded voters of the stakes of tomorrow’s primary – not that they needed any reminding, since some say they’ve received upwards of 10 campaign mailers a day in recent weeks, in addition to the political ads flooding the airwaves.“Don’t complain about what happens in a general election if you don’t play in this primary tomorrow,” she charged. “It matters.” More

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      Republican who said she held Trump accountable for January 6 endorses him

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      The Republican South Carolina congresswoman Nancy Mace faced widespread accusations of hypocrisy after she endorsed Donald Trump – the presidential candidate she previously said she held “accountable” for the January 6 attack on Congress.On Monday, Mace announced her endorsement, a day before the New Hampshire primary, in which Trump enjoys comfortable polling leads over the former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, his only remaining opponent.“I don’t see eye to eye perfectly with any candidate,” Mace said. “And until now I’ve stayed out of it. But the time has come to unite behind our nominee.”Saying “it’s been a complete shit show since [Trump] left the White House”, the congresswoman said the US “needs to reverse all the damage Joe Biden has done”. Trump, she said, would be better on the economy, immigration and national security.“Donald Trump’s record in his first term should tell every American how vital it is he be returned to office,” Mace said.“Good Lord,” said Adam Kinzinger, an Illinois Republican who sat on the House January 6 committee then quit Congress over his opposition to Trump. “Nancy Mace is just the worst.”At present, Trump faces 91 criminal charges (17 for election subversion), attempts to keep him off the ballot for inciting an insurrection and assorted civil trials. Still, he has dominated the Republican primary, winning comfortably in Iowa last week.Observers were quick to point to what Mace made of Trump at the end of that term, in the aftermath of January 6.On that day, supporters Trump told to “fight like hell” to block certification of his defeat by Biden attacked Congress, seeking lawmakers to capture and possibly kill in a riot now linked to nine deaths, more than 1,200 arrests and hundreds of convictions.“Everything that he’s worked for … all of that, his entire legacy, was wiped out yesterday,” Mace told CNN on 7 January 2021. “We’ve got to start over.”On 11 January, Mace said: “We have to hold the president accountable for what happened. The rhetoric leading up to this vote, the lies that were told to the American people – this is what happens, rhetoric has real consequences. And people died.”Trump was impeached a second time for inciting the Capitol attack.On 13 January, Mace said on the House floor she would vote against impeachment but added: “I believe we need to hold the president accountable. I hold him accountable for the events that transpired for the attack on our Capitol last Wednesday.”While 10 House Republicans voted to impeach Trump, he was acquitted at his Senate trial when enough members of his party stayed loyal.Trump turned against Mace, endorsing a primary rival in her district in South Carolina. Mace fought off the challenge – with campaign help from Haley.Also on Monday, Steve Benen, an MSNBC producer, said: “Remember when Trump called Nancy Mace ‘absolutely terrible’ and tried to end her career? And when Nikki Haley scrambled to rescue her? A lot can happen in 18 months.”Mace is not the only senior South Carolina Republican to desert the former governor: the US senator Tim Scott, who Haley appointed in 2012, endorsed Trump on Friday.Jose Pagliery, a politics reporter for the Daily Beast, pointed to another widely remarked irony in Mace’s decision to endorse Trump this week, writing: “Rape survivor Nancy Mace just endorsed Donald Trump in the middle of his second rape trial.”In April last year, on CBS’s Face the Nation, Mace discussed both her work to improve the processing of rape kits by law enforcement and her support for exceptions for victims of rape or incest in abortion bans passed in Republican states.She also said: “I am a victim of rape, I was raped by a classmate at the age of 16. I am very wary and the devil is always in the details, but we’ve got to show more care and concern and compassion for women who’ve been raped.”In August, a New York judge dismissed a counterclaim by Trump in a defamation suit brought by the writer E Jean Carroll over her claim that Trump sexually assaulted her in a department store changing room in the 1990s.Explaining why the jury decided Trump “sexually abused” Carroll but did not endorse Carroll’s claim that he raped her, Lewis A Kaplan discussed the difference, under New York law, between forcible penetration with the penis or with fingers.The jury said Trump did the latter to Carroll. Kaplan, however, wrote: “Mr Trump did in fact ‘rape’ Ms Carroll as that term is commonly used and understood in contexts outside of the New York penal law.”The case has now reached a second trial, though a hearing scheduled for Monday was postponed due to juror illness.A representative for Mace did not immediately respond to a request for comment.Speaking to Fox News, Mace said Haley had been a “great governor” but voters in her South Carolina district were “overwhelmingly with Donald Trump”.“People want the primary to be over,” Mace said, pointing to an eventuality most pundits expect sooner rather than later, given Trump’s leads over Haley in New Hampshire, South Carolina (the third state to vote) and elsewhere.Mace also said that for voters in her district, “women’s issues” including abortion were “gonna be really important in the 2024 cycle”. More