Republicans

Subterms

    More stories

    • 138 Shares179 Views

      in US Politics

      Polls show Kamala Harris building lead over Trump in 2024 election

      by

      Kamala Harris continues to gain strength in the US presidential election, as polls nationally and in battleground states show her building leads or catching Donald Trump.On Friday morning, FiveThirtyEight, a leading polling analysis site, puts Harris, the Democratic party’s presumptive nominee for president, up by 2.1 points over her Republican rival in its national average.In averages for swing states, where control of the White House rests, Harris led in Michigan by two points, Pennsylvania by 1.1 point and Wisconsin by 1.8 points. Trump led in Arizona by less than half a point and in Georgia by half a point.In battleground states without enough polls to calculate averages, Trump was ahead by about three points in North Carolina and the candidates were about level in Nevada. In the latter state, recent CBS and Bloomberg polls have given Harris two-point leads while on Friday the Nevada Independent reported a poll showing the Democrat six points up.The US vice-president, 59, has changed the election race since mid-July, when Joe Biden, 81, finally heeded calls from his own party to step aside for a younger candidate to take on Trump, who is 78. He endorsed Harris to take over the top of the Democratic ticket for this November, while he serves out his single term.On Thursday night, Amy Walter, of the non-partisan Cook Political Report, told PBS that before Harris entered the race, Biden “was behind by a significant number, not just at the national popular vote, but in those … battleground states. You can see almost six points in a state like Georgia and Nevada.“Now, just in the time that Harris has been in the race, you have seen those numbers move pretty significantly toward Harris, four- or five-point shifts in those battleground states, which is mirroring what we’re seeing in the national poll as well.“It hasn’t turned those states, though, from ones that favored Trump to ones that now favor Harris. It just means now that the race is no longer as lopsided in Trump’s favor as it was, say, in late July … which is why we’re calling this race a toss-up.”The same day, the Cook Political Report changed its ratings for three Sun belt swing states – Arizona, Georgia and Nevada – from “leans Republican” to “toss-up”.Another analysis site, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, based at the University of Virginia, changed Georgia from leans Republican to toss-up. Looking north, the site changed Minnesota and New Hampshire, states where Trump made gains while Biden was top of the Democratic ticket, from leans Democratic to likely Democratic.Harris’s choice for vice-president, Tim Walz, is governor of Minnesota. Any Walz effect on polling has not yet been felt but some observers expressed surprise that Harris passed over Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania, a battleground state.Others argued back. For Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Joel K Goldstein said that though Shapiro and Mark Kelly, the Arizona senator who was also closely considered, were “both from competitive states that were … important pieces of the 306 electoral votes Democrats won in 2020”, in choosing Walz, “Harris demonstrated yet again that vice-presidential selection turns on matters other than the over-hyped criterion of home-state advantage.“Walz also had the most experience (17 and a half years) in traditional vice-presidential feeder positions (senator, governor, member of the House of Representatives, holder of high federal executive office) of her options, which contrasts with the very limited experience (one and a half years) of his Republican counterpart, Ohio senator JD Vance.”Among widely noted individual polls, Harris led for a second week in the Economist/YouGov survey, maintaining a two-point advantage. Reuters/Ipsos found Harris up five points, 42%-37%, up two on the last such survey, taken just after Biden withdrew. Ipsos said it also found in a separate poll Harris leading Trump 42%-40% in the seven battleground states, though it “did not break out results for individual states”.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionA national poll from Marquette University in Wisconsin showed Harris up six points, with 53% support among likely voters to 47% for Trump. Harris maintained that lead when other candidates were included. Robert F Kennedy Jr, the leading independent, took 6% support. In the Reuters/Ipsos poll, Kennedy’s support had fallen six points to 4% since July.The Marquette poll contained further good news for Harris, pointing to her energizing effect as the campaign heads for the home stretch: an 11-point rise in respondents saying they were very enthusiastic about voting in November.“Enthusiasm has increased substantially among Democrats, with a small increase among Republicans,” the Marquette pollster Charles Franklin wrote. “Republicans had a consistent enthusiasm advantage over Democrats in previous polls, but this has been mostly erased now.”It was not all good news for Harris and Democrats. In a poll released on Thursday, CNBC put Trump up two points and firmly ahead on who voters thought would make them financially better off.Micah Roberts of Public Opinion Strategies, a Republican pollster who worked on the survey with a Democratic counterpart, said the election was “less now a referendum on Trump than it is a head-to-head competition between the two candidates”.Harris, Roberts said, was “still carrying a lot of water for the [Biden] administration. She has to answer for that and define herself independently … That’s a lot of baggage to carry when you’ve got a compressed time frame against a mature campaign on Trump’s side.” More

    • 125 Shares189 Views

      in US Politics

      Project 2025 architect compared abortion to slavery and the Holocaust

      by

      In a speech earlier this year, Kevin Roberts, the architect of Project 2025, a vast plan for a second Trump administration, compared abortion to slavery, lynchings, the Holocaust, antisemitic violence and terror attacks.“Every slave auction, every lynching, every concentration camp, every abortion mill, every pogrom, every terrorist bombing from the Middle East to Kermit Gosnell, from Herod to Hitler to Hamas, has been justified on the same inhuman pretense that the victims aren’t really people,” Roberts said.The remarks were reported by Media Matters for America, a progressive watchdog.Gosnell, an abortion doctor in Philadelphia, was sentenced to life in prison in 2013, for the murder of three babies.Roberts is the president of the Heritage Foundation, a hard-right thinktank. He spoke about abortion in Washington DC in January, at the National Pro-Life Summit, hosted by Students for Life in America, a Project 2025 advisory board member.Project 2025 is a 900-plus-page policy plan for rightwing change at every level of federal government. The Heritage Foundation has coordinated such plans since 1980 but Democrats and progressive groups have successfully raised alarm over Project 2025, regarding reproductive rights, LGBTQ+ rights, environmental protections and other concerns.Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, the Democratic nominees for president and vice-president, have made Project 2025 a key part of their campaign, their attacks echoed by candidates for Congress and state posts.Trump, his running mate, JD Vance, and key advisers have sought to back away. Earlier this week, a Trump spokesperson told the Washington Post, which reported links between Trump and Roberts including shared flights, Project 2025 “has never and will never be an accurate reflection of President Trump’s policies”.Efforts to limit damage continue. Last month the Project 2025 director, Paul Dans, stepped down, reportedly under pressure from Trump’s campaign. Earlier this week, as Democrats in Congress demanded publication of Project 2025 plans for the first 180 days of a second Trump administration, which remain under wraps, a book by Roberts and introduced by Vance was delayed until after election day.On Thursday, Roberts told a podcast it was “good” to see such moves, adding: “I mean, they’re trying to win an election. Also, legally it’s important for people to know that Project 2025 is independent of any candidate … we’ve put this together for any candidate to lean on.”But his January remarks about abortion added fuel to the fire. Then, Roberts said: “The butcher’s bill of history is chillingly clear. Once a society deems certain individuals not fully human, it soon treats them as if they weren’t human at all. And it never stops with one group.“… Is it any surprise that the same party of death celebrating violence in the womb also justifies, and even cheers, the surgical mutilation of children, the euthanizing of the depressed, the persecution of parents and churchgoers, even a genocidal war to exterminate the Jewish people?“Make no mistake: This idea of human inequality – that some people count and some people don’t – doesn’t come from the media or the government or the elite or the left or even Planned Parenthood. It comes straight from hell.”Earlier this week, Harris’s campaign manager, Julie Chávez Rodríguez, said: “Project 2025 is on the ballot because Donald Trump is on the ballot. This is his agenda, written by his allies, for Donald Trump to inflict on our country.“Hiding the 920-page blueprint from the American people doesn’t make it less real – in fact, it should make voters more concerned about what else Trump and his allies are hiding.” More

    • 163 Shares189 Views

      in US Politics

      Harris and Trump agree to debate on ABC in September as race tightens

      by

      Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will face off for the first time in a televised debate on 10 September, ABC News has confirmed.The event is expected to draw a huge viewership, and could be a make-or-break moment for both candidates in what polls indicate is an extremely close race.“I am looking forward to debating Donald Trump and we have a date of September 10. I hear he’s finally committed to it and I’m looking forward to it,” the vice-president told reporters in Michigan on Thursday.The former president had previously agreed to appear on ABC News to debate Joe Biden, but after the president stepped down from his re-election campaign, Trump suggested he would back out.During a rambling press conference on Thursday, he backtracked, saying he was willing to debate Harris three times in September – on ABC, and on Fox News and NBC.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionABC News confirmed in a statement it will “host qualifying presidential candidates to debate on September 10 on ABC. Vice-President Harris and former President Trump have both confirmed they will attend the ABC debate.”Harris had not committed to further debates on NBC or Fox, but told reporters: “I am happy to have that conversation about an additional debate, or after September 10, for sure.”More than 51 million people tuned in to watch the first presidential debate between Trump and Biden in June. Biden’s faltering performance at the event marked the beginning of the end of his campaign. Over the next month, Trump survived an assassination attempt, Biden stepped down and Harris became the Democratic candidate, launching a campaign that is quickly gaining momentum.Whereas Biden had been trailing Trump in key swing states, Harris has made gains – in some cases leading her rival in polls. An Ipsos poll published on Thursday found Harris ahead of Trump by 42% to 37%, compared to a 22 to 23 July Reuters/Ipsos survey, which showed her up 37% to 34% over Trump.Harris’s swift ascent has left the Trump campaign scrambling and struggling to develop a coherent attack line against her. During his Thursday press conference, which was his first public appearance since Harris named the Minnesota governor Tim Walz as her running mate, Trump repeatedly mispronounced Harris’s name, questioned her racial identity, and made a number of outlandish, false claims about the economy, the Biden administration’s record and his own. More

    • 150 Shares179 Views

      in US Politics

      Harris continues battleground campaign blitz after Trump’s rambling press conference – live

      by

      “Let the collective come together around a common experience, which at its core is about dignity and the dignity of labor, and then let the people come together to negotiate so you make the balance, and then the outcome will be fair,” said Kamala Harris.“And isn’t that what we’re talking about in this year election? We’re saying we just want fairness. We want dignity for all people. We want to recognize the right all people have to freedom and liberty to make choices, especially those that are about heart and home and not have their government telling them what to do,” she added.Since launching her campaign, Harris has turned to the ideas of freedom and individual liberties – concepts long associated with the rhetoric of the conservative movement – and turned them back on Trump and the modern Republican party. In Harris’s campaign rallies so far, abortion rights, LGBTQ+ rights and, in this speech, labor rights form the basis of freedom.“Even if you’re not a member of a union, you better thank unions. I’m here to say thank you, thank you, thank you to the sisters and brothers of UAW for all you are and all we will do over these next 89 days,” said Harris at the UAW earlier today.During her speech, the vice-president referred to a political “perversion” of the Republican party, “where there’s a suggestion that somehow strength is about making people feel small, making people feel alone, but isn’t that the very opposite of what we know, unions know, to be strong? It’s about the collective. It’s about knowing that no one should ever be made to fight alone.”Trump put out a dizzying number of falsehoods at his press conference earlier. Here are just a few:1) He said the crowd at his speech on January 6, 2020 was comparable to the crowd that gathered for Martin Luther King Jr.’s “I Have a Dream” speech in 1963. An estimated 50,000 people attended Trump’s speech. About a quarter of a million gathered to hear King speak.2) He claimed that the US economy was at the brink of a depression. “Not a recession, a depression,” he said. While the stock market took a dip recently, many indicators suggest that the US economy is generally on firm footing. Today, Wall Street saw its best day of trading in two years.3) He said “the vast majority of the country” supports him, and that his base includes “75 percent of the country”. That’s a bold claim for a former president who never won the popular vote. Polls currently indicate that about 43% of Americans currently hold a favorable view of Trump. The majority (more than 51%) have an unfavorable view.JD Vance’s investments reveal potential contradictions between the political persona he has sought to project, his history as a venture capitalist and Peter Thiel acolyte, and his status as a hard-edged tribune of the so-called “new right”.Companies he has invested in include a firm that carries out medical testing of therapies that may include stem cells in scientific research to tech firms with records of harvesting data. Vance and some of the people behind the various firms he is involved with also exhibit an obsession with references to the mythology around The Lord of the Rings’ fantasy world.The revelations come in part from an analysis of his financial disclosures to the Senate ethics committee since 2022, first as a Senate candidate and then as a junior senator for Ohio. The Guardian’s reporting also drew on other public records and open source materials.The most recent disclosure, which covers until the end of 2022, also showcases the peculiar preoccupations that Vance as an investor shared with a Thiel-adjacent network of rightwing Silicon Valley venture capitalists who later spent millions supporting Vance’s candidacy to the Senate in 2022.Joe Lowndes, a political science professor at Hunter College and the author of several books on the American political right, said: “Vance has been a chameleon his whole life – that’s how he described himself in his autobiography.The Cook Political Report had moved Arizona, Georgia and Nevada from “lean Republican” to “toss up” – a reflection of Harris’ momentum in the presidential race.“For the first time in a long time, Democrats are united and energized, while Republicans are on their heels. Unforced errors from both Trump and his vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance have shifted the media spotlight from Biden’s age to Trump’s liabilities,” Cook Political Report’s Amy Walters wrote. “In other words, the presidential contest has moved from one that was Trump’s to lose to a much more competitive contest.”Whereas Biden was trailing Trump in key swing states, Harris is tied with Trump or sometimes leading in more recent polls.During Donald Trump’s rambling press conference today, the former president revived many of his go-to talking points, including falsehoods about the economy, his opponets’ policies and his own record.But one of his most audacious claims was that no one died in the January 6 riot at the Capitol, and that there was a “peaceful transfer of power” after the 202 election.In fact, four Trump supporters died in the crowd.Ashli Babbitt, 35, died after she was shot in the shoulder by a Capitol Police officer while protesters “were forcing their way toward the House Chamber where Members of Congress were sheltering in place,” according to a statement from the former Capitol Police chief Steven Sund.Two other “Stop the Steal” died of heart attack, according to the DC medical examiners office and another of accidental overdose.Three law enforcement officers also died after the the attack, including one who died from blunt force injuries while defending the capitol and two who died by suicide. The families of the latter two officers, along with some elected officials, sought to deem their deaths as “line of duty” – noting they suffered from trauma following the riot.Leaders of the “uncommitted” campaign spoke with Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, before a rally in Detroit on Wednesday to discuss their calls for a ceasefire in Gaza and an arms embargo on Israel.Harris “shared her sympathies and expressed an openness to a meeting with the Uncommitted leaders to discuss an arms embargo”, the organization said in a statement.But a Harris aide said on Thursday that while the vice-president did say she wanted to engage more with members of the Muslim and Palestinian communities about the Israel-Gaza war, she did not agree to discuss an arms embargo, according to Reuters.Phil Gordon, Harris’s national security adviser, also said on Twitter/X that the vice-president did not support an embargo on Israel but “will continue to work to protect civilians in Gaza and to uphold international humanitarian law”. A spokesperson for Harris’s campaign confirmed she does not support an arms embargo on Israel.The uncommitted movement, a protest vote against Joe Biden that started during the presidential primary season to send a message to the Democratic party about the US’s role in the Israel-Gaza conflict, began in Michigan and spread to several states. In Walz’s Minnesota, it captured 20% of the Democratic votes.Harris’s announcement of Walz as her running mate on Tuesday was met with celebration and even hope by many different parts of the Democratic electorate. But those in the uncommitted movement are still weighing their response, and hoping for a presidential campaign that will comprehensively address the mounting death toll in Gaza.“[Walz] is not someone who has been pro-Palestine in any way. That’s really important here. But he is also someone who’s shown a willingness to change on different issues,” said Asma Mohammed, the campaign manager for Vote Uncommitted Minnesota, and one of 35 delegates nationwide representing the uncommitted movement.Kamala Harris has finished her address to the UAW, saying:“ I’m here to say thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you to the sisters and brothers of UAW for all you are and all we will do on these next 89 days. God bless you.”“You know, when you know what you stand for, you know what to fight for. We know what we stand for, and we stand for the people, and we stand for the dignity of work, and we stand for freedom,” said Kamala Harris.“We stand for justice. We stand for equality, and so we will fight for all of it. And the bottom line about UAW is that I also know, and I’ll say to all the friends watching, look, even if you’re not a member of the union, you better thank unions,” she added.“Let the collective come together around a common experience, which at its core is about dignity and the dignity of labor, and then let the people come together to negotiate so you make the balance, and then the outcome will be fair,” said Kamala Harris.“And isn’t that what we’re talking about in this year election? We’re saying we just want fairness. We want dignity for all people. We want to recognize the right all people have to freedom and liberty to make choices, especially those that are about heart and home and not have their government telling them what to do,” she added.Kamala Harris has taken the stage.“I understand the concept and the noble concept behind collective bargaining. And here it is…fairness. It’s about saying, ‘Hey, in a negotiation, don’t we all believe the outcome should be fair?’ I mean, who could disagree with that?” Harris said.The outcome should be fair. It should be fair, right? But when you’re talking about the individual and a big company, and you’re applying that one individual to negotiate against a big company, how’s that outcome going to be fair?,” she added.“You know, things work really well in life and really well with your neighbors and really well in communities when you mind your own damn business, things work better. Stay out of our business. Stay out of our business,” said Tim Walz.“He’s not fighting for you. He doesn’t know you. He doesn’t care about your family. And his running mate is just as dangerous and backward as he is,” he added.“So this is very simple, you know it, and it’s going to take a heck of a lot of hard work, but this election is a simple choice, what direction and what’s our country going to look like? What direction are we going?” said Tim Walz. “You know what we’ve said, If Donald Trump’s going to take it backwards, he’s going to, we aren’t going back. We’re not going back,” he added.Tim Walz has now taken the stage.“I couldn’t be prouder to be on this ticket and couldn’t be prouder to stand with UAW,” said Walz.“You got two people up here that were on the picket line of striking UAW members, that’s a place Donald Trump will never be,” said Shawn Fain.“You know, anyone can be your friend when the sun’s shining, things are going great, but you find out who your friends are when things get tough. And you know…when we look at tough times, we’ve been at tough times, we see who chose to stand with us and who chose to sit on the sideline to do nothing,” he added.“This is not a time to sit back and hope for the best. This is our generation-defining moment. Everything is at stake,” Fain continued.“You know, Donald Trump calls me stupid and you know why? Because he thinks auto workers are stupid, but we’re not stupid. We don’t fall for Trump’s alternative facts, or what we all call lies,” said Shawn Fain.“This isn’t about opinions. This election is not about party politics. All we have to do is look at these candidates in their own words and actions. That’s all the facts we need, and that paints a very clear picture of which side the candidates are on,” he added.He went on to note Trump’s absence during UAW’s strikes in recent years, saying Trump was “missing in action.”“The man’s a con-man,” Fain added.UAW president Shawn Fain is currently addressing the room.“I think you already know this, but what’s at stake in this election? It’s very simple, everything is at stake. It’s about a choice of whether we continue forward or whether we go backwards,” he said.“Kamala Harris is one of us. Governor Tim Walz is one of us. You know, they’re working class people. They have working class roots. They know struggle They know what it’s like to live paycheck to paycheck,” he added.Kamala Harris and Tim Walz have just taken the stage in Detroit, Michigan where they are set to deliver remarks to the United Auto Workers union.Harris and Walz entered the union hall to a crowd of cheering supporters.ABC News has confirmed that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will debate each other on September 10.Both Harris and Trump have confirmed they will attend the debate.During his news conference in Mar-a-Lago a few minutes ago, Donald Trump, who in recent weeks has refused to debate Harris on the originally scheduled network, said that he has agreed to ABC News’ offer to debate the vice president.Speaking to reporters, Trump said:
      “We have spoken to the heads of the network and it’s all been confirmed other than some fairly minor details – audience, some location, which city would we put it into but all things that would be settled very easily.” More

    • 163 Shares119 Views

      in US Politics

      Kamala Harris and Tim Walz boost union credentials in event at UAW local

      by

      At a union hall in the Detroit area on Thursday, Kamala Harris and her running mate, the Minnesota governor, Tim Walz, addressed members of the United Auto Workers (UAW) at a campaign stop intended to play up the Democratic candidates’ support for unions.During the town hall-style event, which was held at the headquarters of UAW Local 900, Harris and Walz emphasized their support for organized labor and slammed Donald Trump for his anti-union record.Members of Local 900 were among the first to go on strike last year, when 3,300 workers from a Wayne county plant producing pickup trucks and SUVs walked out on 15 September. During the strike, which ended with UAW ratifying contracts with Ford, GM and Stellantis that secured 25% wage increases and cost-of-living adjustments, Joe Biden visited the picket line – becoming the first US president in history to do so.Unions, which already overwhelmingly backed Harris, welcomed Walz – who signed a raft of worker protections and pro-union bills into law in 2023 – on to the Democratic party ticket.Sean Fain, the president of the union, introduced Harris and Walz, contrasting the candidates with Trump and JD Vance, who have attempted to court workers in recent months but whose policy records are notably anti-union.“You know, this is a ‘which side are you on’ moment, and the choice cannot be any clearer,” said Fain. Trump and Vance, Fain said, “spent their lives serving themselves, representing the billionaire class and enriching themselves at the expense of the working class”. He shot back at Trump, who called the UAW president a “stupid person” during a Fox News interview that aired this month.“Donald Trump calls me stupid,” said Fain. “You know why? Because he thinks auto workers are stupid. But we’re not stupid. We don’t fall for Trump’s alternative facts, what we call lies.”During their remarks, Walz and Harris spoke appreciatively of the UAW, drawing a sharp distinction between their position on labor and Trump’s.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion“I couldn’t be prouder to stand with UAW,” said Walz, who spoke about Trump’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic and his anti-union posture. Speaking about the rightwing presidential playbook, Project 2025, Walz said one of the goals was to “get rid of labor unions and get rid of the voices they bring, so they can do whatever the hell they want”.During Harris’s speech, the vice-president referred to a political “perversion” of the Republican party, “where there’s a suggestion that somehow strength is about making people feel small, making people feel alone, but isn’t that the very opposite of what we know, unions know, to be strong? It’s about the collective. It’s about knowing that no one should ever be made to fight alone.”Since launching her campaign, Harris has turned to the ideas of freedom and individual liberties – concepts long associated with the rhetoric of the conservative movement – and turned them back on Trump and the modern Republican party. In Harris’s campaign rallies so far, abortion rights, LGBTQ+ rights and, in this speech, labor rights form the basis of freedom.“Even if you’re not a member of a union, you better thank unions. I’m here to say thank you, thank you, thank you to the sisters and brothers of UAW for all you are and all we will do over these next 89 days,” said Harris, exiting to Beyoncé’s Freedom, now a Harris campaign anthem. More

    • 138 Shares169 Views

      in US Politics

      Trump shared private flight with Project 2025 head despite denying connection

      by

      Donald Trump shared a private flight with the head of the rightwing thinktank behind Project 2025, the Washington Post reported, publishing evidence including a picture of the two men in airplane seats, grinning.The flight was on its way to a conference organized by the thinktank, at which Trump told group members they would “lay the groundwork and detail plans for exactly what our movement will do”.Orchestrated by the Heritage Foundation, Project 2025 is a 900-page plan initially presented for a second Trump administration that posits aggressive rightwing reform to every corner of the federal government.Democratic attacks have particularly focused on its threats to reproductive rights, LGBTQ+ rights, voting rights and other progressive concerns.Appearing to fear that Kamala Harris was making Project 2025 an effective campaign issue, Trump and allies have since tried to disavow the effort, with Trump claiming last month he had “no idea who is in charge of” Project 2025.On Thursday, a spokesperson for Trump told the Post that Project 2025 “has never and will never be an accurate reflection of President Trump’s policies”.But the Post published plane-tracking data and the picture of Trump with Kevin Roberts, president of the Heritage Foundation, in April 2022.The two men were flying from Trump’s home in Palm Beach, Florida, to Amelia Island in the same state for the annual Heritage conference.At the conference, the Post said, Trump told attendees: “With Kevin and the staff, and I met so many of them now, I took pictures with among the most handsome, beautiful people I’ve ever seen.”The Post also pointed out that in April of this year Roberts told the paper: “I personally have talked to President Trump about Project 2025 because my role in the project has been to make sure that all of the candidates who have responded to our offer for a briefing on Project 2025 get one from me.”Democratic attacks on Project 2025 have inflicted appreciable damage. Last month, Project 2025 director Paul Dans stepped down amid “pressure from Trump campaign leadership”, the Daily Beast first reported.Roberts has attracted attention, too. In July, he told the Trump ally Steve Bannon: “We are in the process of the second American revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be.”Controversy over such comments drew attention to Roberts’ forthcoming book, Dawn’s Early Light: Taking Back Washington to Save America, which has an introduction by the Ohio senator JD Vance, Trump’s vice-presidential pick. Publication has now been delayed until after election day.In his introduction, obtained by the New Republic, Vance calls the Heritage Foundation “the most influential engine of ideas for Republicans from Ronald Reagan to Donald Trump”. The group has indeed produced policy plans for Republican administrations since 1980. But none have proved remotely as controversial as Project 2025.Earlier this week, two House Democrats told Roberts to publish plans for the first 180 days of a second Trump administration, which remain under wraps.“It is time to stop hiding the ball on what we are concerned could very well be the most radical, extreme, and dangerous parts of Project 2025,” Jared Huffman of California and Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts said in an open letter.On Thursday, the Post quoted an anonymous Project 2025 source as saying that some contributors saw controversy over their work, and Trump’s attempts to disavow it, as “a disaster, a catastrophe … the wishful-thinking school is that this will all blow over”. More

    • 163 Shares199 Views

      in US Politics

      Why Donald Trump won’t make major inroads with Black voters | Musa al-Gharbi

      by

      Throughout the 2024 cycle, polling has suggested that Republicans are poised to do extraordinarily well with African Americans.Even with Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket, nearly one out of five black voters say they support Donald Trump. Younger Black voters seem especially open to casting ballots for the Republican party.On its face, this seems like a sea change in Americans’ electoral affinities. The last time Republicans put up numbers anywhere near that level with Black voters was in 1976. And given that Black voters currently make up nearly one-quarter of the Democratic base, a scenario where almost 20% of these constituents defected to the other side would be absolutely devastating for the vice-president’s electoral prospects.The good news for Democrats is that, even if the polls have been genuinely capturing overall Black sentiment in the US, they are unlikely to be accurately predicting the final vote distribution in November.To clarify why polls are unlikely to reflect the eventual vote margins for this particular subset of voters, it might be helpful to look at how things typically shake out for third-party candidates.Elections are decided by voters, not poll respondentsDuring the 2016 electoral cycle, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson consistently hovered around 9% of the vote in polling. As the race tightened in the weeks before the election, voters began defecting to one of the top ticket candidates. However, in the week before ballots were cast, he was still polling at more than 6%. Ultimately, he ended up with just over 3%.In the 2020 cycle, Green party candidate Howie Hawkins polled at 2% of the national vote six weeks before the election. He ultimately secured roughly one-quarter of 1% of ballots.In the current cycle, Robert F Kennedy Jr polled above 10% for most of the race and, at his high point, was more than double that. However, as the race has tightened (we’re less than 90 days out), and after Joe Biden dropped out, Kennedy is now polling around 4%. In the end, he’d probably be lucky to get half that many votes in November.In short: despite most Americans consistently expressing support for alternatives to the Democratic and Republican nominees, third-party candidates consistently underperform at the ballot box relative to their polling – even in cycles (like 2016) where unusually high numbers of voters dislike both major party candidates.One of the primary causes of this gap between polling and outcomes is that contests are ultimately decided by who shows up to vote on election day. And Americans who are disgusted with both major-party nominees often find other things to do on a Tuesday afternoon than standing in line at a polling place to cast a ballot for someone who has little prospect of actually winning. And when these voters do show up at the ballot box, it’s often to hold their nose and vote for whomever they perceive to be the lesser of the two major party evils, in order to deny victory to the candidate they least prefer. And so, in the end, few Americans who express support for third-party candidates in polls actually show up to vote for them. The polls may accurately capture Americans’ preferences for third-party candidates, but they don’t predict well voting behavior with respect to those candidates.A similar tale holds for Black support of Republicans.Although polls this cycle have consistently found that nearly one in five Black Americans are open to voting for Trump, they also show that most Black voters could be easily swayed to vote for someone other than who they’re leaning towards at the moment, most Black voters have much weaker commitments to their current candidate of choice than other Americans, and roughly a third say they will probably not vote at all. This pattern in responses is also reflected in historical voting behavior: Black voters are more likely than most other Americans to sit elections out.Across the board, the Americans who are most likely to show up on election day – highly-educated, relatively affluent, urban and suburban voters – now tend to favor Democrats, even as lower-propensity voters (younger, working class and low-income, and/or less educated Americans, especially those who live in small towns and rural areas) have been shifting to the right.Historically, the dynamic has gone the other way. Democrats benefitted from high turnout and sought to expand access and participation while Republicans aggressively sought to suppress turnout by increasing voting restrictions, purging voter rolls, gerrymandering districts and otherwise undermining the Voting Rights Act. However, as the Democratic party was reoriented around knowledge economy professionals, many other constituencies swung in the other direction. And because there are far more “normie” voters than there are symbolic capitalists, high turnout increasingly came to favor Republicans instead.This matters because Republicans’ polling gains among African Americans are concentrated most heavily among lower-propensity voting blocs (such as younger and less affluent or educated constituents) and, as a consequence, the lower overall electoral turnout is, the more we should expect to see Republicans underperform among black voters relative to the polls.In 2020, the GOP got a bigger share of the black vote than in previous cycles, but this was in part because of record turnout among non-white voters (whereas Democrats overperformed in subsequent special elections that had much lower overall turnout). Unfortunately for Trump, there are signs that African American turnout this cycle may be significantly lower among lower-propensity voters. Consequently, the vote share Republicans ultimately receive in 2024 among black voters may end up being significantly lower than the polling suggests.The bad news for Democrats is that Trump doesn’t necessarily need to get around 20% of the black vote to freeze Kamala out of the White House. If he’s to even marginally exceed his numbers from last cycle, Democrats would be left with a highly precarious path to victory unless they can make up the losses with other constituents in swing states.Both parties have been alienating core constituenciesSince 2010, Democrats had been consistently losing vote share among African Americans in every midterm and general election.And it wasn’t just African American voters who were leaving, but also Hispanic Americans, religious minorities, and less affluent or educated voters. The very populations that Democrats often fancy themselves as representatives of and advocates for. The very constituents that were supposed to ensure Democrats an indefinite electoral majority.These defections were highly consequential: they contributed to enormous congressional wipeouts from 2010 to 2014 and cost Democrats the White House in 2016 (as Black voter attrition helped flip states including Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Ohio, even as Hispanic alienation helped tilt Arizona, Texas and Florida toward the Republicans).Many assumed that with Trump in the White House, minority voters would come flocking back to the Democratic party. Instead, the GOP held their margins with non-white voters in the 2018 midterms. Democratic gains in that election were near-exclusively due to shifts among highly-educated, relatively affluent, urban and suburban white people.In 2020, Black voters in states such as South Carolina helped save Biden’s floundering primary election campaign. In response, the president vowed to appoint a Black woman as his running mate should he win the Democratic nomination. Upon securing the vote, he ultimately settled on Harris.This choice was striking because Harris was not popular with Black voters during the primary. She typically trailed behind not just Biden, but also Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and sometimes other competitors as well – consistently polling about 5% with African Americans.That general sentiment seems to have continued through to the general election. Although Harris’s nomination was historic in virtue of her being potentially the first Black, female and/or Asian vice-president, her appearance on the ticket generated little enthusiasm among any of these voter blocs. Democrats ultimately got a smaller share of the black vote and the Asian vote in 2020 as compared with 2016 (across gender lines). Democrats were able to nonetheless carve out a narrow electoral college win primarily because white men (especially self-identified “moderates” and “independents”) shifted away from Donald Trump in 2020.These patterns continued through the 2022 midterm elections: non-white people, including non-white women, shifted much further towards the GOP than white people (especially white men). And it seems likely that Democrats will see further attrition in 2024, even if it’s less than current polling suggests.Contrary to optimistic narratives that circulated as Obama was ushered into office, it’s actually quite difficult to hold together a coalition that is centered around knowledge economy professionals but attractive to less advantaged Americans as well.With respect to the Democratic party’s current core constituency, although knowledge economy professionals have been straying from the Democrats since the election of Biden, they seem poised to turn out in force for Harris. The record-breaking “White Women: Answer the Call” and “White Dudes for Harris” online events seem like a strong indicator – as does the huge outpouring of support from Wall Street, Silicon Valley and big law. The symbolic professions seem to be 100% coconut-pilled.Black people, on the other hand, seem much less enthusiastic. And should Harris lean heavily into her race or gender in an attempt to rally support – although this might be appealing to (disproportionately white) knowledge economy professionals – it would likely alienate non-white “normie” voters even more (who tend to prefer messages that are less identitarian and more focused on bread and butter issues).The big question for 2024 is whether or not Trump will continue to alienate white people at an equal or greater clip as Democrats are driving away voters of color. The answer will likely determine control of the White House.

      Musa al-Gharbi is a sociologist in the School of Communication and Journalism at Stony Brook University. His book, We Have Never Been Woke: The Cultural Contradictions of a New Elite, is forthcoming with Princeton University Press. He is a Guardian US columnist. More

    • 175 Shares159 Views

      in US Politics

      Biden ‘not confident at all’ in peaceful transfer of power if Trump loses race

      by

      Joe Biden has said he is not confident there will be a peaceful transfer of power after the November presidential election.“If Trump wins, no, I’m not confident at all. I mean, if Trump loses, I’m not confident at all,” the president said in an interview with CBS News that is due to air in full this Sunday.Biden added: “He means what he says, we don’t take him seriously. He means it, all this stuff about ‘if we lose it will be a bloodbath’ … [and] ‘stolen election’, you can’t love your country only when you win.”The TV network posted the excerpt from the interview on Twitter/X.Donald Trump, who is the Republican nominee for president, said in March: “Now, if I don’t get elected, it’s gonna be a bloodbath. That’s going to be the least of it. It’s going to be a bloodbath for the country.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion

      Reuters contributed reporting. More details soon … More