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      How will the outcome of the US election affect Australia, Aukus and our region?

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      More people have gone to a ballot box in 2024 than in any other year in human history. Billions have cast votes across scores of countries, including some of the largest, most powerful democracies on Earth.But America’s remains the world’s global election, the most forensically examined, the most consequential all over the world. America matters.“The US is still the most powerful actor in the international system,” Dr Michael Fullilove, executive director of the Lowy Institute, told the Guardian this week. “It is the richest company, with the biggest military, the biggest economy.“It is the only country that runs a truly global foreign policy, the only country that can project power anywhere on Earth.“It is the democratic, meritocratic superpower … it still attracts so many people around the world … the whole world is remarkably well-informed about the US election.”And Australia’s future is bound up in America’s electoral decision. As one of America’s closest allies – supporters might argue for “staunchest”, opponents might claim “uncritical” – Australia’s economic, security and multilateral landscape is tied to that of the US and the occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.How could the election of a second Donald Trump presidency impact Australia? Or how might the quasi-continuity of Vice-President Kamala Harris ascending to the White House?Trump, neccesarily, is the object of much of Australia’s focus. Harris, as Joe Biden’s vice-president, is the continuity candidate – promoting policy positions in line with the current administration – meaning a Trump victory would raise many more questions.The election too, will be keenly fought over a host of domestic issues which have no direct – though some peripheral – impact on Australia. This includes issues such as reproductive rights (the overturning of Roe v Wade by the supreme court and a mooted national abortion ban), migration (particularly on the country’s southern border), gun control and law and order – issues excluded in this piece.Watching the crescendo of an increasingly vituperative election campaign, Fullilove said that politically “America is running a high temperature at the moment”.“My real hope for the election is that there is a clear result, that the loser accepts defeat, that the transfer of power is peaceful – that might sound like a low bar – but it is critical, for America and for the world.”Values and democracyResponding to the unpredictability of Trump’s first presidency, Australian politicians repeated the refrain that the Australian-US alliance runs deeper than a president or prime minister and that it is one founded on shared values and democratic principles.Trump has said he would not be a dictator, “except on day one”. He said he would seek retribution on his political opponents: “root out the communists, Marxists, fascists and the radical left thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country that lie and steal and cheat on elections”.As commander-in-chief, he said he would consider using the military to attack domestic enemies: “It should be very easily handled by, if necessary, by the national guard, or if really necessary, by the military”.Trump’s former chief of staff, Gen John Kelly, said this week Trump was a “fascist” who “certainly prefers the dictator approach to government”. Trump has repeatedly lied that he won the 2020 election and mused on “terminating” the constitution.He told a rally in July that if he was elected president again, “you won’t have to vote any more”.“In four years, you don’t have to vote again. We’ll have it fixed so good, you’re not going have to vote.”Harris has denounced Trump as a “fascist” who wants “unchecked power” and a military personally loyal to him.In her speech to the Democratic National Convention, she cited the supreme court’s split decision in July stating Trump enjoyed broad immunity for official acts taken while in office.“Consider the power he [Trump] will have, especially after the United States supreme court ruled he will be immune from prosecution,” she said. “Imagine Donald Trump with no guardrails.”ClimateClimate change is “one of the greatest scams of all time”, Trump said last month. “We will drill, baby, drill,” he told the Republican National Convention when accepting the party’s nomination. “We will do it at levels that nobody’s ever seen before.”He has said he would prohibit, by executive order, all offshore wind projects on the first day of his presidency, saying they kill whales.In his first term, Trump withdrew from the Paris agreement (the US rejoined under Biden). But his campaign has indicated a second Trump presidency might re-abandon the Paris agreement, as well as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) which underpins it. 198 countries have committed to the UNFCCC: none has left it.The withdrawal of the US – the world’s second-largest greenhouse gas emitter and the country that has contributed the largest share of historical emissions – would increase political uncertainty around the transition to net zero and deter investment. It would weaken the influence of the so-called umbrella group – of which Australia is a member – and give succour to climate laggards, such as the petrostates, to further slow global reduction efforts.Some have argued that much of the impetus and funding for global emissions reductions is locked in and emissions reductions efforts are working on timescales far longer than a four-year presidential cycle.But Michael Mann, distinguished professor of meteorology at Pennsylvania State University, has argued “a second Trump term is game over for the climate”.Harris has called climate change an “existential threat”. As attorney general in California, she prosecuted oil companies for breaches of environmental laws. As vice-president, she was the tie-breaking vote in the Senate to pass the Inflation Reduction Act, which provided about US$370bn to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 40% below 2005 levels by 2030.But during Harris’s vice-presidency, the US produced and exported the most crude oil of any country at any time in history, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s figures. Crude oil production averaged 12.9m barrels a day in 2023, breaking the previous global record of 12.3m, set in 2019.Trade and the economyTrump is a fierce economic nationalist, hostile to free trade and intensely focused on America’s trade deficit, which he regards as a sign of weakness. He has pledged to impose a 10% tariff on all imports to the US, with a 60% tariff on all Chinese imports and a 100% tariff on Chinese cars.Economists argue the policy will lead to higher prices and lower growth. The nonpartisan Peterson Institute for International Economics estimated the proposed tariffs would lower the incomes of an average American household by US$1,700 a year: poor Americans would be more affected than the rich.In September, Trump said: “Together, we will deliver low taxes, low regulations, low energy costs, low interest rates and low inflation so that everyone can afford groceries, a car and a home”. He has promised to reduce regulation and cut taxes, but some economists argue his tax cuts would benefit America’s wealthiest while hurting the poorest.Australia is not dependent on direct trade with the US, but the majority of Australia’s trade is with China. If China’s economy, already weak, is damaged further by a trade war with America, Australia will be exposed.Harris has criticised Trump’s tariff policies, arguing they would act as a “sales tax on Americans” and lead to higher prices and inflation. But the Biden administration – of which she has been vice-president – has extended Trump-era tariffs and used tariffs to influence trade on industries it sees as strategic – particularly in relation to China. The administration extended tariffs on solar panels in 2022, and in May this year, increased tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to 100%.As a senator, Harris opposed the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a free trade agreement (involving Australia) negotiated by President Obama and from which Trump withdrew.Defence and AukusWhile Trump has been critical of Nato, he has not criticised Australia as a military ally or the Aukus deal, a tripartite agreement (between the US, UK, and Australia) for Australia to acquire up to eight nuclear-powered submarines between now and the mid-2050s, the first in the 2030s.Australia’s deputy prime minister, Richard Marles, said his government believed Trump would honour the agreement: “Every engagement we’ve had with the Trump camp in the normal process of speaking with people on both sides of politics in America, there is support for … Aukus,” he said.

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      But John Bolton, Trump’s former national security adviser – now a fierce critic of the former president – said of Aukus: “I think it could be in jeopardy”.Fullilove asked Trump’s vice-presidential candidate JD Vance this year for his position on the agreement. Vance replied he was “a fan of Aukus”.“I suspect that Aukus would be safe under Trump too,” Fullilove told the Guardian.“Australia is an example of an ally that is contributing to deterrence and contributing to the US industrial base. You could imagine Trump threatening to unpick it, but my conclusion is it is safe.”Aukus was signed by the Biden-Harris administration. The administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy commits to the deal, but does not give a timeline: “Through the Aukus partnership, we will identify the optimal pathway to deliver nuclear-powered submarines to the Royal Australian Navy at the earliest achievable date.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionAirbases in Australia were used for US airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen this month. The defence department confirmed Australia provided support for the US strikes “through access and overflight for US aircraft in northern Australia”.Israel-GazaBoth Trump and Harris have declared their support for Israel and reiterated support for a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine.The US continues to supply Israel with billions of dollars of weapons and munitions as Israel carries out its bombardment of Gaza, Lebanon, and, this week, strikes on Iran.The US is, by far, the largest supplier of arms to Israel: 69% of Israel’s imports of major conventional arms between 2019 and 2023 came from America, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The US has signed an agreement to provide Israel with $3.8bn in annual military aid under a 10-year-agreement.1,200 Israelis died in the 7 October 2023 attacks by Hamas. More than 42,000 people have died in Gaza since, including more than 16,000 children.Trump has expressed his support for Israel’s invasion and bombardment of Gaza. He has also urged Israel to “finish up” the war because it is losing support.“You have to finish up your war … you’ve got to get it done,” he told Israeli newspaper Israel Hayom. “We’ve got to get to peace. You can’t have this going on, and I will say Israel has to be very careful because you are losing a lot of the world. You are losing a lot of support.”Trump said of Harris: “She hates Israel. If she’s president, I believe that Israel will not exist within two years from now.”In his first term, Trump released a peace proposal he called a blueprint for a two-state solution: it would not have created an independent Palestinian state and was seen as strongly favouring Israel.“Israel has a right to defend itself,” Harris said in September’s presidential debate.She continued: “How it does so matters. Because it is also true far too many innocent Palestinians have been killed. Children. Mothers. What we know is that this war must end. It must end immediately, and the way it will end is we need a ceasefire deal and we need the hostages out.”Harris has consistently reiterated support for a two-state solution.The war in UkraineNearly three years on since Russia invaded Ukraine – and a decade since its initial assault on Crimea – the US remains the largest backer of Ukraine’s war effort. It is by far the single biggest contributor of money and materiel, outspending the next largest contributor, Germany, by five to one.Trump has made it abundantly clear he wants the war over – or, more precisely, he wants to stop paying for it.He told a rally: “I think [Ukrainian president Volodymyr] Zelenskyy is maybe the greatest salesman of any politician that’s ever lived. Every time he comes to our country he walks away with $US60bn.”Influencing Republican allies in Congress, Trump stalled the last funding package from passing for months while Ukrainian forces – critically short of ammunition and artillery – struggled to hold back Russian advances. Trump’s manoeuvring was criticised as essentially backing Vladimir Putin’s irredentism.Trump has also repeatedly claimed if re-elected he would end the war in a day – “I’ll have that done in 24 hours” – without detailing how. It is presumed a deal to stop the conflict would involve the ceding of Ukrainian territory to Russia.Trump’s disposition towards Ukraine has broader implications for the collective security principle underpinning Nato. Trump has compared Nato to a protection racket and said he would not protect “delinquent” allies.“In fact, I would encourage them [the Russians] to do whatever the hell they want. You gotta pay! You gotta pay your bills.”Trump has repeatedly upbraided European countries for failing to live up to their commitment to spend 2% of their GDP on defence.Harris has pledged to continue Biden’s support for Ukraine and for the Nato alliance. She said as vice-president “I helped mobilise a global response – over 50 countries – to defend against Putin’s aggression.“And as president, I will stand strong with Ukraine and our Nato allies.”Harris, however, has wavered on Ukraine being admitted as a member to Nato, saying the question was among the “issues that we will deal with if and when it arrives at that point”.China“Trump and Kamala Harris are two bowls of poison for Beijing. Both see China as a competitor or even an adversary,” Prof Zhao Minghao, from the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, told the Financial Times.Trump was hawkish towards China in his first term, confronting Beijing over what he argued were a suite of unfair practices and abuses such as intellectual property theft, currency manipulation and economic espionage. He pledged to “completely eliminate dependence on China in all critical areas,” including electronics, steel, pharmaceuticals, and rare earths. And he has flagged new laws to stop US companies from investing in China and a ban on federal contracts for any company that outsources to China.His first administration rejected Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea, condemning Beijing’s “campaign of bullying” of other countries.Harris spoke on China in September, saying her government would work to ensure the US “is leading the world in the industries of the future and making sure America, not China, wins the competition for the 21st century”.“China is not moving slowly … if we are to compete, we can’t afford to, either.”She condemned Trump as having “constantly got played by China” and said his administration shipped advanced semiconductors to China, allowing them to upgrade their military.“I will never hesitate to take swift and strong measures when China undermines the rules of the road at the expense of our workers, our communities, and our companies.”The PacificClimate change is an urgent existential threat for the islands of the Pacific. Trump does not mention the climate crisis in his platform, nor is it mentioned in Agenda47.The Heritage Foundation – the conservative thinktank behind the Trump-linked Project 2025 – has urged for partnership with the Pacific islands, but on American terms and in its interests. “The US must adopt a clear-eyed approach about putting American interests and objectives in the Pacific islands first,” it said.The Biden-Harris administration have held two Pacific islands-US summits which have been big on ambition – with commitments of more than $1bn to resilience regionalism and sustainable development – but seen as lacking, so far, in application and results.The 2022 US-Pacific partnership declared a shared vision for “a resilient Pacific region of peace, harmony, security, social inclusion, and prosperity”.Fullilove said while Harris sits within the mainstream traditions of US foreign policy over recent decades, “it’s hard to get a really accurate fix on what she thinks about the world”.“At a broad level, she believes in American leadership, she believes in alliances, she prefers democracy to dictators, she more pro-trade than Trump. But beyond that, it’s very hard to know how she will approach Asia, the part of the world Australia is in, because she hasn’t been a prominent foreign policy voice in the Biden administration.”Read more about the 2024 US presidential election:

      Presidential poll tracker

      Harris and Trump policies

      What to know about early voting More

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      Five days out, Arab Americans are split on Harris v Trump: vote ‘strategically’ or ‘morally’?

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      It’s a Saturday afternoon at Al Madina Halal market and restaurant in Norcross, Georgia, and the line is four people deep for shawarma sandwiches or leg of lamb with saffron rice and two sides.A television on the wall by a group of tables has Al Jazeera correspondents reporting from several countries on a split screen about Israel’s attack on Iranian military targets the day before.Mohammad Hejja is drinking yogurt, surveying the bustle in the store he bought in 2012. There are shoppers and employees from Sudan, Ethiopia, Iran, Pakistan, Morocco and other countries – a clear sign of what makes surrounding Gwinnett county, with nearly a million residents, the most diverse in the south-east.Hejja has Jordanian and US citizenship, but his family is Palestinian. Soldiers of the nascent nation of Israel drove his grandparents out of Palestine in the 1948 Nakba – the Palestinian catastrophe caused by Israel’s creation.Asked about how he expects his community to vote when Americans head to the polls next week, he says: “Everybody is confused about this election.” His No 1 concern is to “stop the war”, referring to Israel’s ongoing bombardment of Gaza and recent attacks on Lebanon.The issue is top of mind for Arab American voters nationwide. Some polls suggest Arab Americans could abandon the Democrats in droves over the Biden administration’s support for Israel; elsewhere, advocates and community leaders are urgently organizing to prevent a Donald Trump victory, warning about impacts in the Middle East and on domestic issues such as immigration if the GOP candidate is re-elected.Less than a week from 5 November, one thing is certain: “You cannot assess Arabs as a coherent voting bloc,” says Kareem Rifai, a Syrian-American graduate student at Georgetown’s Walsh School of Foreign Service. Rifai, who co-founded the University of Michigan Students for Biden chapter in 2020, calls himself a “foreign policy voter”, and is sticking with the Democratic candidate this cycle due to the party’s “strong stance on Russia”.Rifai weighed in on the Arab American vote on X recently, saying he was “pulling out my Arab Muslim from Metro-Detroit card” to let non-Arabs know that people hailing from across the Arab world have differing takes on the upcoming election.“Pro-Hezbollah socially conservative Arab community leaders … are not representative of Arab Americans in the same way that secular liberal Arabs or Christian anti-Hezbollah Arabs, etc, etc, are not representative of all Arab Americans,” Rifai wrote.At the same time, before this year, Arab Americans were clearer in their preference for Democrats – at this time in 2020, Joe Biden led Trump by 24 points, and exit polls showed that more than 85% of Arab American voters backed Democrats in 2004 and 2008.Today, Arab American voters seem more willing to look past Trump’s ban on travel from certain Muslim-majority countries – and his vow to reimpose a ban if re-elected – as well as his staunch support for Israel.Michigan, Rifai’s home state, is home to an estimated 392,000-plus Arab Americans – one of 12 states in which 75% of the nation’s estimated 3.7 million Arab Americans live.But as if to underscore its swing state status, dueling endorsements of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have come from Michigan in the last week alone. Over the weekend, a Yemeni-American organization upheld Trump as capable of “restoring stability in the Middle East”. The following day, a group assembled at the American Arab Chamber of Commerce in Dearborn, Michigan, to back Harris, calling her “the first to call for a ceasefire and also to call for Palestinian self-determination”. (The statement also noted that “Arab Americans are not a single-issue people, we care about the environment, an existential issue for families and children, workers, rights and a fair wage, civil rights, women’s rights and so much more.”)Also in the last week, dozens of “Palestinian, Arab, Muslim and Progressive” leaders in Arizona issued a statement backing Harris, underlining that support for an arms embargo on Israel and a ceasefire in Gaza has mainly come from Democrats. “In our view, it is crystal clear that allowing the fascist Donald Trump to become President again would be the worst possible outcome for the Palestinian people. A Trump win would be an extreme danger to Muslims in our country, all immigrants, and the American pro-Palestine movement,” the statement says.Arizona is home to an estimated 77,000 Arab Americans, according to the Arab American Institute.Meanwhile, back in swing state Georgia – with its estimated 58,000 Arab Americans – the staterepresentative Ruwa Romman spoke about her choice to vote for Kamala Harris.Romman is the first Muslim woman elected to the Georgia statehouse and the first Palestinian to hold public office in the state’s history. Speaking with fellow Muslims and Arabs about this election “feels like talking about politics at a funeral”, she wrote in a recent article for Rolling Stone.She believes that organizing for a ceasefire in Gaza and an arms embargo would be easier under a Harris administration. “I don’t know how advocating for Palestine would survive under Trump,” she said, adding that many of her constituents – including immigrants – would suffer if he were re-elected.Over at Al Madina, owner Hejja was arriving at a different conclusion. His wife has aunts in Gaza; she had not been able to reach them in three weeks. “The minimum thing we can do is pray five times a day,” he said.As for the election, he said: “If the president of the United States wants to stop the war, he can – with one phone call to Israel. He has the power.” Hejja believes “if Trump wins, Netanyahu will stop the war … [Trump] said he wants peace, and I believe him.”About 12 miles south-west, at Emory University – site of some of the harshest police responses to pro-Palestinian protests early this year – the Syrian-American senior Ibrahim had already sent an absentee ballot to his home state of Kentucky, marked for the Green party’s Jill Stein. “I see it as an ethical decision,” he said of his first time voting for president.“Voting for an administration that is supporting genocide crosses an ethical red line,” he added, referring to Harris.Fellow student Michael Krayyem, whose father is Palestinian, said he would “probably be voting down-ballot” on 5 November, but not for president. “I can’t support Kamala Harris because of what her administration has done to my people,” he said.Romman says she feels this dilemma facing fellow Arab Americans deeply. At the same time, she says: “Ultimately, in this election, I view voting as a strategic choice, and no longer a moral one.” More

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      ‘This is too serious to drown out’: six US voters on what they’re most anxious about

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      Hundreds of US voters from across the country shared with the Guardian how they are coping with the stress of the looming election, and which issues and possible outcomes make them the most anxious or concerned.Here are six of them.‘I worry about a further erosion of women’s rights’As a gynecologist in Georgia, I worry about a further erosion of women’s rights. Pregnancy is already dangerous here. Once Roe was overturned, the six-week ban went into effect and we quickly saw we couldn’t provide medically appropriate care to our patients.It also created a lot of fear and confusion amongst healthcare providers who didn’t want to put their license or livelihood on the line. The confusion was the purpose of the law, causing delays in care and “preventing” abortion. Unfortunately all it did was mean that patients had to be very sick before a doctor would intervene. We are seeing women bear the consequences – getting very sick, unable to get pregnant again, losing babies, and in some cases, dying.As a queer family with children, our marriage, rights, privacy and ability to make healthcare decisions [may] be impacted. We can’t watch TV as is, with all the hateful anti-trans ads. It’s hard to sleep. B, an obstetrician gynecologist, from Georgia‘We need a strong leadership to handle international problems, whoever wins the election’I’m worried that other countries don’t realize what motivates Americans to vote for Trump. I don’t think he’s the best president we’ve ever had, he’s kind of like a New York playboy. But I think he had a good successful term, despite being an amateur politician, rather than a career one.The continuous character assassination of him when he first ran was a slick orchestration. Every newspaper was immediately against him, it was like somebody had pressed a button, like a set-up or something. This motivated me to vote for him, to oppose the organised media and political establishment.People in Europe seem to think we’re simple-minded for voting for him, but we’re not. We all just felt – ‘Let’s try him for a while.’ We’re all so tired of liberals from California running the country. They created a machine of sorts, and Trump startled that machine.I hope Trump gets his second term now, and I’m very much impressed by his running mate. But I’m concerned about the ability of both Trump and Harris to handle the many international problems we have now, such as threats from Russia. The dollar is losing security. In the Middle East, anything could happen. It’s important that we have a good leadership who can sort this all out, whoever wins. Rob, a retired computer programmer, from Maine‘American democracy will survive another excruciating Trump term’Calling the re-election of Trump the end of democracy is dramatic. Calling his return to power the end of democracy as we know it, is apt.I believe America’s democracy, flawed and vulnerable as it may be, is resilient enough to withstand another Trump term. I think it’s politically expedient to proclaim that a second Trump term would drive us directly into purely despotic rule.The day-to-day of watching [Trump] run the country that I love would be excruciating, again, but I think what really is nightmare fuel is [the prospect of a] Vance presidency, which feels likely and could [entail] a dismantling of nearly all social goods left in the US.Under either man, US support for beleaguered or aspiring democracies could crater; alliances with Nato and other democratically aligned organizations could be severed or allowed to atrophy. But perhaps most dishearteningly, the election of a Maga Republican would signal that the leader of the free world would now be supplanted by a leader of the strongman world.What makes it worse is the countervailing hope of a Democratic term or two, where the country would finally have room to heal. They actually give me hope, and I would grieve the loss of hope.I’m not drinking at the moment, on purpose. Quit weed, too. I feel this is too serious to drown it out. Nile Curtis, 48, a massage therapist, from Hawaii‘America is now unable to discuss different viewpoints’Our greatest concern about the election, aside from the outcome, is the potential eruption of violence. The inflammatory rhetoric, the noxious stereotypes and the intractable position of Trump’s supporters who might or might not like him, but will vote for him anyway, is proof that the US is currently incapable of conducting any sort of discourse. Regardless of who wins, the threat of impending doom feels very real.We are older parents of a disabled adult. While the economy is a pressing issue for everyone, social security seems to be in danger. As people who are closer in age to retirement, and caring for a disabled adult, we are unsure of the impact either candidate would have on our “bigger picture”, but we feel that Mr Trump’s rhetoric brings an added layer of threatening behavior from people on both sides, who have become increasingly defensive and unwilling to accept and discuss different viewpoints.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionHow do we manage our anxieties around these issues? We keep to ourselves. We do not engage in political or ideological discussions with anyone and limit our time watching and reading the news. The constant barrage of reporting, which has become pseudo-journalistic in pursuit of increasing [audience] numbers, appears to be geared to stoke the anxiety. The 24/7 news cycle has injected a stream of fear into everyone. MG, a mother and grandmother, from North Carolina‘I’m tired of having to vote against a candidate instead of voting for one’I want to vote for a president who supports the causes that I’m most concerned with: climate change, healthcare, cost of living, availability of housing. I will vote for Harris, but more as a vote against Trump.I think the Democratic party has shown that they’re willing to invest in renewable energy, which is fantastic. But I’m concerned with the promotion of record oil and gas numbers by the Democratic campaign this election cycle. That being said, I think the Republican party would be significantly worse.I believe that not enough housing is being constructed, period, and what is being built is only for those who can afford it. There’s a lot of short-term Airbnb-type rentals in Portland that further reduce the housing stock, and I’m concerned about ever being able to afford a house.I think for gen Z the biggest issues aren’t being reflected by either campaign. The rapid spread of disinformation on divisive, extremist social media [is another one].I have close friends and family who are queer and am increasingly concerned with the way anti-LGBT rhetoric has, I feel, exploded back into popularity. I’m frustrated that the Harris campaign has made an effort to expand rightwards and not leftwards. This will be my second presidential election and I’m tired of having to vote against a candidate instead of voting for one. Nate, 24, Ocean engineer, Portland, Maine‘I no longer trust Trump after January 6’My voting record is quite mixed. I voted for Bush twice, then McCain in 2008, Obama in 2012, Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020 and I plan to vote for Harris in 2024. I disagree with much of the Harris-Walz platform on police reform, abortion and immigration. But after January 6, I no longer trust Trump or anyone allegiant to him in the White House.It feels like an election between poor policy choices or an overpowered executive branch that will stop at nothing to retain control. I will not vote for anyone who called the 2020 election “stolen”. So many of my neighbors and people who go to my church still believe Trump’s lies about the election.Trump is a divisive character in our family’s discussions and we’ve lost relationships with kin because of our not supporting him. We also expect violence, perhaps even at the polling places, regardless of who wins.[Part of our anxiety management strategy] is preparation: we have a few days’ food, water and household needs on-hand, and we’ll have a full tank of gas if we need to leave town. Some is avoidance. We live in a very Trump-heavy area, lots of Trump yard signs. I realized the other day that I’ve drunk every day for the last three weeks. I’ve made a point of walking every day and doing some kind of exercise. But really nothing can fully prepare us. An anonymous male IT worker in his 40s, from Missouri More

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      Will young voters in swing states decide this election? – podcast

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      US elections live: about 58m people have already voted; Harris leads Trump in two crucial swing states, new poll shows

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      With six days until the 2024 election, more than 57.5 million Americans have already voted as of Wednesday afternoon, according to the Election Lab at the University of Florida.Of the 57 million, just over 30 million voted early in-person and about 27 million voted by early mail.In an op-ed for the Guardian, Bernie Sanders, the independent senator from Vermont, addresses progressives concerns about voting for Kamala Harris given the administration’s support for Israel’s war.He writes:
      I understand that there are millions of Americans who disagree with Joe Biden and Kamala Harris on the terrible war in Gaza. I am one of them.
      While Israel had a right to defend itself against the horrific Hamas terrorist attack of 7 October 2023, which killed 1,200 innocent people and took 250 hostages, it did not have the right to wage an all-out war against the entire Palestinian people.
      It did not have the right to kill 42,000 Palestinians, two-thirds of whom were children, women and the elderly, or injure over 100,000 people in Gaza. It did not have the right to destroy Gaza’s infrastructure and housing and healthcare systems. It did not have the right to bomb every one of Gaza’s 12 universities. It did not have the right to block humanitarian aid, causing massive malnutrition in children and, in fact, starvation.
      And that is why I am doing everything I can to block US military aid and offensive weapons sales to the rightwing extremist Netanyahu government in Israel. And I know that many of you share those feelings. And some of you are saying, “How can I vote for Kamala Harris if she is supporting this terrible war?” And that is a very fair question.
      And let me give you my best answer. And that is that even on this issue, Donald Trump and his rightwing friends are worse. In the Senate and in Congress Republicans have worked overtime to block humanitarian aid to the starving children in Gaza. The president and vice-president both support getting as much humanitarian aid into Gaza as soon as possible.
      Trump has said that Netanyahu is doing a good job and that Biden is holding him back. He has suggested that the Gaza Strip would make excellent beachfront property for development. It is no wonder Netanyahu prefers to have Donald Trump in office.
      But even more importantly, and this I promise you, after Harris wins we will, together, do everything we can to change US policy toward Netanyahu – including an immediate ceasefire, the return of all hostages, a surge of massive humanitarian aid, the stopping of settler attacks on the West Bank, and the rebuilding of Gaza for the Palestinian people.
      A Pennsylvania judge on Wednesday sided with Donald Trump’s campaign and agreed to extend an in-person voting option in suburban Philadelphia, where long lines on the final day led to complaints voters were being disenfranchised by an unprepared election office.A lawsuit demanding an extension of Tuesday’s 5pm deadline in Bucks county until today was filed this morning after long queues outside the county’s election offices on the last day for applications led to security guards cutting off the line and telling some of those waiting they would not be able to apply.Videos of the scenes were widely circulated on social media, fuelling rumours of voter suppression.The Trump campaign was joined by the Republican National Committee (RNC) and the GOP Senate candidate Dave McCormick in the lawsuit alleging that voters waiting outside election offices for mail ballots were turned away empty-handed and ordered to leave after the deadline expired at 5pm on Tuesday.“This is a direct violation of Pennsylvanians’ rights to cast their ballot – and all voters have a right to STAY in line,” the Trump campaign said.Judge Jeffrey Trauger said in a one-page order that Bucks county voters who want to apply for an early mail ballot now have until Friday.The queues for late mail ballots were a result of Pennsylvania not having an early on-site voting system at designated spots, as is the case in some other states. Instead, voters can apply for ballots on-demand at election offices before filling them out and submitting them on the spot, a procedure that takes about 10 minutes.The flood of late applicants overwhelmed electoral workers in Bucks county’s administration building in Doylestown, leading to a long queue which was cut off at around 2.45pm on Tuesday, according to CBS.Protesters interrupted Harris about 8 minutes into her remarks here.It was difficult to hear what they were saying, but I could hear the word “genocide”.The crowd began chanting “USA!” and Harris reminded the crowd that democracy was on the line in this election. “Ours is about a fight for democracy and your right to be heard. That is what is on the line in this election,” she said. “Look, everybody has a right to be heard, but right now I am speaking.”After another protester interrupted a few minutes later, she said: “At this particular moment it should be emphasized that unlike Donald Trump, I don’t believe people who disagree with me are the enemy from within. He wants to put them in jail. I’ll give them a seat at the table.”Shawna Barnes, a 45-year old healthcare worker from Philadelphia, said she’s concerned that men aren’t supporting Harris in this election. When she’s knocked on doors, she’s noticed that the women are often all in, but the men are “iffy”.“Black and brown women are going to come out and support. White women of course are going to support. The men are just kind of like afraid,” she said as Mr Brightside by The Killers blasted on the sound system. “I don’t think it’s about gender, I just think it’s fear.”Kamala Harris is speaking at the Pennsylvania Farm Show Complex & Expo Center in Harrisburg, where she is promoting her economic proposals.”We stand for working people, we stand for middle class growth and strength,” Harris said.She derided Donald Trump’s tariff proposals, and warned that he would dismantle the popular Affordable Care Act. “We know what’s on the line. We know that Donald Trump will try, like he has so many times to get rid of the Affordable Care Act, which would throw, millions of Americans off of their health care and take us back to when insurance companies could deny people with pre-existing conditions,” she said.Donald Trump’s team is reportedly considering withholding federal grants from police departments that decline to work with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (Ice) to ease deportations.NBC News reports that the former president’s team is working on plans to force sanctuary cities such as Chicago, and states such as California to work with the federal government to help Trump deliver on his promise of mass deportations.The Guardian has not independently verified NBC’s reporting.Withholding funding from police departments who decline to work with Ice will undoubtedly face legal challenges. During Trump’s presidency, several states sued the administration after it cut off grants to sanctuary cities, and appealed a court decision that sided with Trump – running out the clock on Trump’s term before the supreme court could issue a final decision on the matter.With six days until the 2024 election, more than 57.5 million Americans have already voted as of Wednesday afternoon, according to the Election Lab at the University of Florida.Of the 57 million, just over 30 million voted early in-person and about 27 million voted by early mail.I spotted Minerva Ortiz-Garcia, 68, walking around with a small Puerto Rican flag before the rally started so I stopped her to ask what she thought of the racist joke a speaker made before Donald Trump’s rally at Madison Square Garden on Sunday.“I feel horrible. I’m Puerto Rican, I actually started to cry,” she said. “How could someone say that about an island that is trying to survive [Hurricane] Maria?”Ortiz-Garcia, a flight attendant, lives in Easton, which is in eastern Pennsylvania, a part of the state that is extremely competitive and has a huge Latino population. She said she thought many Latino voters in her part of the state were waiting for Harris to reach out to them directly.“I think that people want her to say something directly,” she said.I’ve been chatting to a few voters at a Kamala Harris rally here at the Farm expo building in Harrisburg, where there’s a vague smell of horses as the crowd swag surfs and dances to Motown hits such as We Are Family and Aretha Franklin’s Respect.I just spoke with Corine Wherley, a 38-year-old librarian from Harrisburg who is attending her first political rally ever. She said she decided to come to the rally because she was so alarmed by what she heard during Donald Trump’s rally at Madison Square Garden on Sunday.“A lot of it was the rhetoric around ‘this secret’ and other things like that they’re planning on doing,” she said, referring to Trump’s comment that he has a “little secret” with House speaker Mike Johnson, that many took to be a plan to contest the election. “They’re like: ‘I can do whatever I want,’ and I think that’s what scares me.”Puerto Rican reggaeton singer Nicky Jam has withdrawn his support for Donald Trump after comedian Tony Hinchcliffe called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage” at Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally on Sunday.On Wednesday, the singer posted a video on social media saying: “The reason I supported Donald Trump is because I believed it was what’s best for the economy in the United States, where a lot of Latinos live … a lot of immigrants that are suffering over the state of the economy … With [Trump] being a businessman, I felt it was the right move.”He went on to add: “Never in my life did I think that a month later a comedian would come to criticize my country, to speak poorly of my country, and therefore I renounce any support to Donald Trump and move aside from any political situation. Puerto Rico deserves respect.”In September, Nicky Jam made an appearance at one of Trump’s rally during which he was misgendered by the former president.“Do you know Nicky? She’s hot!” Trump said to the crowd, adding: “Where’s Nicky? Where’s Nicky? Thank you, Nicky. Great to be having you here.”The battleground states for the White House overlap significantly with the states where Democrats are fighting to keep or gain majorities in state legislative chambers, noted Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC).“While the overlap has opened some opportunities for unprecedented collaboration, this environment has also produced steep challenges for state legislative candidates to get their message out, especially through paid communication,” Williams told reporters on a press call today.Williams noted that the Harris campaign was now spending more on paid ads each week than the DLCC’s entire budget for this election cycle, which is $60m. The gap in resources could heighten the risk of “ballot rolloff”, the phenomenon of voters only filling out the top of their ballot without continuing down to lower-level races.“Our historical data indicates that, in presidential years, we face the challenge of ballot rolloff most acutely,” Williams said. “Communicating and educating voters on who their state legislative candidates are is incredibly important to mitigate underperforming the top of the ticket.”Although much of the country is focused on the presidential and congressional races, the results of this year’s state legislative elections will have vast consequences on Americans’ everyday lives.On a press call today, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) reported that state legislative control appears to be a true toss-up in several battleground states, reflecting the neck-and-neck nature of the presidential race.“Right now, just 12 legislative seats are deciding six legislative majorities in the biggest battleground states across the country, and all our polling shows that this election will be incredibly close,” said Heather Williams, president of the DLCC.Democrats are looking to maintain their narrow majorities in state legislative chambers in Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania while attempting to regain majorities in Arizona and New Hampshire. The new legislative maps in Wisconsin also represent a key opportunity for Democrats.“The stakes couldn’t be higher, as nearly half of Americans currently have their rights protected by Democratic majorities in state legislatures,” Williams said.“Decisions on fundamental freedoms are happening in the states, and many of the dangers of Project 2025 and Trump’s MAGA [’Make America Great Again’] agenda will continue to advance through our statehouses no matter the outcome at the top of the ticket.”A new CNN poll shows Kamala Harris leading over Trump by 6 points in Wisconsin and 5 points in Michigan, key battleground states.Harris leads Trump by 48% to 43% among likely voters in Michigan and 51% to 45% in Wisconsin.The candidates are tied at 48% in Pennsylvania.The vice president’s slim advantage is due in part to “relatively strong performance among White voters and White voters without college degrees, two groups which traditionally break Republican,” CNN said.Here’s a look at where things stand:

      Kamala Harris held a campaign rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, this afternoon. “Unlike Donald Trump, I don’t believe people who disagree with me are the enemy,” she said.

      Kamala Harris said that she strongly disagrees with criticisms of people based on who they voted for. Speaking on the tarmac at Joint Base Andrews on Wednesday following Joe Biden’s “garbage” remarks, Harris said that Biden had “clarified his comments”, adding, “I strongly disagree with any criticism of people based on who they voted for.”

      Arnold Schwarzenegger, the actor and former California governor, has announced he is endorsing Kamala Harris. He joins a running list of Republicans crossing party lines to vote against Donald Trump.

      The supreme court has paused the ruling by a lower court that would have restored voting rights to approximately 1,600 voters in Virginia. In its brief order, the supreme court wrote: “The application for stay presented to The Chief Justice and by him referred to the Court is granted.”

      Virginia’s Republican governor Glenn Youngkin has hailed the supreme court’s ruling, calling it a “victory for common sense and election fairness”. Youngkin had ordered state officials to identify and cancel the voter registration of alleged non-citizens unless they could prove their citizenship in two weeks.

      Tim Walz appeared on Good Morning America, saying, “We know it’s going to be close but we’re going to win this thing.” Speaking to host George Stephanopoulos, Walz said, “We’ve got the better ground game, we’ve got the excitement, we’ve got the momentum on our side.”
      “I see the promise of America in all the young leaders who are voting for the first time,” Kamala Harris said.“You’ve only known the climate crisis and are leading the charge to protect our planet and our future. You young leaders who grew up with active shooter drills, who are trying to keep our schools safe, you who have known fewer rights than your mothers and grandmothers and are standing up to fight for freedom to make your own decisions about your own bodies. None of this for you young leaders is theoretical. This is not theoretical for you. It is not political for you. For our young leaders, this is your lived experience, and I see you, and I see your power, and I am so proud of you,” she added.“Unlike Donald Trump, I don’t believe people who disagree with me are the enemy,” Kamala Harris said.“He wants to put them in jail. I’ll give them a seat at the table,” she added.“We have an opportunity in this election to turn the page on a decade of Donald Trump, who has been trying to keep us divided and afraid of each other. We know that is who he is but, North Carolina, that is not who we are,” Kamala Harris said.“It is time for a new chapter where we stop with the pointing fingers at each other, and instead let us lock arms with one another, knowing we have so much more in common than what separates us,” she added.Kamala Harris is now on stage in Raleigh, North Carolina, for a campaign rally.Stay tuned as we bring you the latest updates.Donald Trump is claiming – without evidence – that Pennsylvania is cheating and has filed a lawsuit against Bucks county.In a post on Truth Social, Trump wrote that the state is “cheating, and getting caught, at large-scale levels rarely seen before”.He did not specify what constituted the state’s cheating.In a separate statement, Trump’s campaign announced on Wednesday that it has filed a lawsuit against Buck county for “turning away voters.”Again, without evidence, the campaign claimed that voters were being turned away early, saying:
      “The Pennsylvania Department of State made clear if voters are in line at a county elections office by 5:00PM, the counties MUST give voters the opportunity to apply for their mail-in ballot. Pennsylvania voters were turned away as early as 2:30PM.” More

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      Judge extends in-person voting option in Pennsylvania after Trump lawsuit

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      A Pennsylvania judge on Wednesday sided with Donald Trump’s campaign and agreed to extend an in-person voting option in suburban Philadelphia, where long lines on the final day led to complaints voters were being disenfranchised by an unprepared election office.A lawsuit demanding an extension of Tuesday’s 5pm deadline in Bucks county until today was filed this morning after long queues outside the county’s election offices on the last day for applications led to security guards cutting off the line and telling some of those waiting they would not be able to apply.Videos of the scenes were widely circulated on social media, fuelling rumours of voter suppression.The Trump campaign was joined by the Republican National Committee (RNC) and the GOP Senate candidate Dave McCormick in the lawsuit alleging that voters waiting outside election offices for mail ballots were turned away empty-handed and ordered to leave after the deadline expired at 5pm on Tuesday.“This is a direct violation of Pennsylvanians’ rights to cast their ballot – and all voters have a right to STAY in line,” the Trump campaign said.Judge Jeffrey Trauger said in a one-page order that Bucks county voters who want to apply for an early mail ballot now have until Friday.The queues for late mail ballots were a result of Pennsylvania not having an early on-site voting system at designated spots, as is the case in some other states. Instead, voters can apply for ballots on-demand at election offices before filling them out and submitting them on the spot, a procedure that takes about 10 minutes.The flood of late applicants overwhelmed electoral workers in Bucks county’s administration building in Doylestown, leading to a long queue which was cut off at around 2.45pm on Tuesday, according to CBS.

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      Michael Whatley, the chair of the Republican National Committee, told a rally in Allentown, Pennsylvania on Tuesday that Democratic election officials were trying to suppress Republican votes.“Democrat election officials are seeing our numbers. They’re seeing our turnout. They are seeing us breaking early vote records across Pennsylvania,” he said. “They are terrified. And they want to stop our momentum. We are not going to let them suppress our votes.”In a statement, Bucks county admitted there had been some “miscommunication” from officials, resulting in those waiting “briefly being told they could not be accommodated”. But this was subsequently corrected, allowing them to submit applications.“Contrary to what is being depicted on social media, if you are in line by 5pm for an on-demand mail-in ballot application, you will have the opportunity to submit your application for a mail-in ballot,” the county said.The legal action raised the prospect of further possible controversy after election day in Pennsylvania – arguably the most important battleground state in next Tuesday’s election – after Trump baselessly accused election officials of cheating.“Pennsylvania is cheating, and getting caught, at large scale levels rarely seen before,” Trump posted on his Truth Social platform, without providing evidence. “REPORT CHEATING TO AUTHORITIES. Law Enforcement must act, NOW!”The allegation was dismissed by Pennsylvania’s Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, who accused the former president of seeking to undermine public trust in the integrity of election officials.“In 2020, Donald Trump attacked our elections over and over,” posted Shapiro, who was Pennsylvania’s attorney general four years ago when Trump tried to overturn Joe Biden’s victory. “He’s now trying to use the same playbook to stoke chaos … we will again have a free and fair, safe and secure election – and the will of the people will be respected.”Most polls show Kamala Harris with a tiny lead over Trump in Pennsylvania, which has more electoral college votes than any other battleground state and which both candidates have campaigned in more than any other state. More

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      ‘Why isn’t Trump doing a little better here?’: Arizona election on a knife-edge

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      Mark Kelly removed his sport coat and leveled with a crowd of Democrats gathered at an Indigenous-owned art collaborative in downtown Phoenix on a sweltering afternoon, days before early voting opened.In 2020, Joe Biden had won the state by just more than 10,000 votes – his narrowest margin of victory – “way less than 1%”, the Arizona senator stressed for emphasis.“This entire election could come down to Arizona,” he said. “I am not overstating this: it could come down to your friends, your neighbors, your community, your tribal members.”As the clock ticked down to yet another exceedingly close presidential contest, Kelly urged everyone in the room to redouble their efforts – to knock on one more door, attend one more phone bank, register one more voter. This, he said, was how Democrats prevail in once ruby-red Arizona.A former astronaut who flipped and defended his Senate seat in back-to-back statewide races, Kelly added wryly: “It’s not rocket science. If it was, I could help.”The senator’s call to action underlined a message both parties have been stressing for months, and especially in the final weeks before election day, on 5 November: even if Republicans hold the advantage on paper, Arizona could tip in either direction.Arizona is one of seven swing states that will probably determine who wins what White House in November. While Donald Trump has a narrow edge over Kamala Harris in the state, the Cook Political Report, the non-partisan election handicapper, has rated the presidential race a “toss up”.“Arizona is not a blue state,” said Samara Klar, a professor of political science at the University of Arizona. “A Republican candidate should be cleaning up in Arizona. So the question is – why isn’t Trump doing a little better here?”The Trump era has seen a remarkable winning streak for Arizona Democrats. They claimed the state’s open Senate seat in the 2018 midterm cycle. Two years later, they won the state’s other open Senate seat and its 11 electoral college votes, when Biden became the first Democratic presidential nominee since Bill Clinton to win the state in 1996. (Before that it was Truman, in 1948.) In 2022, Democrats narrowly swept the top three statewide offices.Their success in the birthplace of Barry Goldwater’s conservative movement is something of a political paradox. Republicans hold a solid advantage in voter registration, with about 35% of voters registering as Republican, 34% as unaffiliated and 29% as Democrats, according to data from the Arizona secretary of state. Arizona was hard hit by inflation and rising housing costs, while immigration is top of mind in the border state – both issues that favor Republicans.View image in fullscreenYet Ruben Gallego, a Democratic congressman, has maintained a stable lead over his opponent, Trump ally Kari Lake, in the US Senate contest to replace the Democrat turned independent Kyrsten Sinema. Two congressional races are seen as coin-flips. And Democrats could turn the state legislature, a long-sought prize after Republican dominance in the modern era.Underlining the sometimes-conflicting impulses of the purple state, Arizona voters are poised to approve a ballot initiative that would empower local and state officials to enforce immigration law, while choosing to enshrine abortion rights into the state’s constitution, months after a ban that would have outlawed the procedure from the moment of conception.Klar, the political scientist, says long-term demographic changes – rapid urbanization around Phoenix, an economic boom that’s brought an influx of tech jobs and college-educated transplants, and the rising political clout of a relatively young Latino electorate – have made the once Republican stronghold more competitive over time. Even if Trump prevails in Arizona, there is a growing sense that Trumpism will have cost his party.Trump’s rise electrified a segment of Arizona’s conservative base that has long had an appetite for his brand of anti-immigrant populism. But he also shattered old GOP alliances – disparaging the venerated Arizona senator, John McCain, even after his 2018 death from brain cancer, and feuding with the state’s then governor, Doug Ducey, over his refusal to overturn Trump’s 2020 defeat in the state.That tension has exploded in the party primaries, where Republican voters keep nominating candidates in Trump’s image – far-right extremists like Lake who parrot his election denialism. But these Republicans have struggled to broaden their appeal to the state’s moderate and independent voters.“Arizonans view themselves as free-spirited, non-partisan, independent – that kind of Goldwater-McCain thing,” Klar said, adding that voters here like “centrist, moderate candidates”. In the Trump years, it has been Democrats, not Republicans, reaching for McCain’s “maverick” mantle.Among those disillusioned by their party’s turn are Lynn and Roger Seeley, self-described “McCain Republicans” who recently attended a Gallego event in a suburb east of Phoenix last month.“The Arizona Republican party is not the same Republican party,” said Lynn Seeley, who plans to vote for Gallego and Harris in November. “It just doesn’t represent me any more.”Yolanda Bejarano, the chair of the Arizona Democratic party, said Democrats have steadily chipped away at Republicans’ dominance in the state by building a coalition that, she predicts, will achieve their perennial dream of winning control of the state legislature.“I’m confident that we’re going to see a bluer Arizona come November,” she said.With voting under way, there is an edge of violence. The final weeks before election day saw a man arrested for planning an “act of mass casualty” and shooting at a Democratic office on multiple occasions, while a mailbox with ballots inside was set on fire and threats were made against Republicans visiting the state.Arizonans get the pitchAcross the sprawling Phoenix region, one of the fastest-growing in America, rival Trump and Harris campaign signs dot xeriscaped yards – a mark of Arizona’s true battleground status.In the final months, a who’s who of presidential candidates and high-profile surrogates have blanketed the state. Both Harris and Trump and their running mates have made multiple swings through the state in the contest’s final weeks.With the state on a razor’s edge, the search for votes has reached new heights – and descended to new depths. Kelly, the US senator, piloted his own plane to visit rural parts of the state, while Gallego hiked to the bottom of the Grand Canyon as part of his outreach to Native voters.Harris is courting traditionally Republican Mormon voters who believe Trump’s conduct and rhetoric are at odds with that church’s values. She has racked up a collection of endorsements from some high-profile members of the church, including Jeff Flake, the conservative Arizona senator who was driven from office over his criticism of Trump and recently served as Biden’s ambassador to Turkey.Trump, meanwhile, has sought to peel away support from Native voters, who have tended to favor Democrats in Arizona elections.View image in fullscreen“We’ve had historic Native vote turnout for the last two years, for the last four years, and the Native vote has been literally the margin in some of these past races,” Stephen Roe Lewis, governor of the Gila River Indian Community, said.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionWhen asked about the outreach to Native voters, the Republican vice-presidential candidate, JD Vance, said at a rally in Peoria this month that many of these voters hadn’t ever voted Republican, but issues like border security and unaffordability hit Indigenous nations hard, too.Republicans have also made inroads with Latinos, who make up about one-quarter of the state’s electorate and were a critical part of Biden’s winning coalition in 2020.But since then, one in three voters who switched their party affiliation from Democratic to Republican were Hispanic, according to an Arizona Republic analysis of the state’s voter registration data. Only 40% of Arizona’s Hispanic voters are currently registered Democrats, compared with 47% four years ago.Lea Marquez Peterson, a Republican and member of the Arizona Corporation Commission, has been a part of that effort. Through the Hispanic Leadership Pac, which she launched to help elect more conservative Latino politicians to office, Marquez Peterson has been hosting cafecitos with voters across southern Arizona.They keep telling her the same thing: Arizonans are fed up with the high cost of housing and food.“You hear a lot about inflation numbers dropping and that things are easing, but I think among the community, among my own family, we still see the high price of grocery store items and, as a business person, certainly the high cost of steel and lumber,” she said. “I don’t think we’re feeling any change yet.”Harris trails Trump but Republicans see warning signsUnderlining the sometimes-conflicting impulses of the purple state, it appears likely that Arizonans will approve the measure to enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution, overturning the current 15-week ban. But Arizonas are also predicted to vote for an anti-immigration ballot measure that would empower local and state officials to arrest and deport border-crossers.Republicans believe Harris is especially vulnerable on immigration in Arizona, a border state that has grappled with the impact of record migration.On a campaign swing in late September, Harris paced a scrubby stretch of border wall in an attempt to confront what Republicans believe is her biggest political vulnerability: immigration. At an event after the visit, in the border town of Douglas, she was introduced by a mother who lost her son to fentanyl and a Republican who touted her record of taking on transnational criminal gangs as the attorney general of California. When Harris spoke, she pledged to further restrict asylum and blamed Trump for derailing a bipartisan border deal earlier this year.“I reject the false choice that suggests we must choose either between securing our border and creating a system that is orderly, safe and humane,” Harris said. “We can and we must do both.”The border visit was aimed at winning the moderate-leaning Republicans who could defect from their party but rank immigration as a top consideration. It will only become clear next week whether Harris has managed to persuade them.View image in fullscreenMeanwhile, Democrats here hope a ballot initiative to protect abortion rights will help drive out the very voters who have powered their wins in this desert battleground – young people, suburban women and independents.Under pressure, and amid much drama, the Republican-controlled legislature voted earlier this year to repeal an 1864 ban on abortion that dated from before Arizona was even a state, opting for a prohibition on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy.Polls suggest it is entirely possible that voters here will act to protect abortion rights and also elect Trump, the man who claims credit for overturning Roe.The abortion rights initiative is “not a silver bullet for any one political party”, said Athena Salman, the director of Arizona campaigns for Reproductive Freedom for All and a former Democratic state legislator.If Harris wins Arizona’s 11 electoral votes, it could renew questions about whether the Republican party is on the right course in Arizona. Voters there seem to be more comfortable with traditional Republicanism over Maga Republicanism, though Trump is the exception.Trump seems to have some quality, some “rogue’s charm”, that those in his image can’t seem to replicate, said Kirk Adams, a Republican consultant for former Arizona House speaker who served as chief of staff to the last Republican governor.The firebrand Lake, who lost her run for Arizona governor in 2022, differs little on policy from the former president, but can’t capture his appeal with voters.“Sometimes I have actually questioned if winning is even their goal,” Adams said of candidates like Lake. “You can run a race and be successful, because now you become a social media star. You have lots of followers. You can monetize it. You don’t necessarily have to win elections to have a following.”Trump’s team, at least, is taking nothing for granted.“Here’s the scenario that I want you to consider, and I don’t mean to give you nightmare fuel here, but I’m going to do it,” Vance said at a recent rally in the state. “We wake up on November 6, and Kamala Harris is barely elected president of the United States by a 700-vote margin in the state of Arizona. Think about that. And ask yourself what you can do from now until then to make sure it doesn’t happen.” More