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      The electoral college has become a gun held to the head of US democracy | Lawrence Douglas

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      These are not easy days for supporters of American democracy. But what twists my innards is not the prospect that in three weeks’ time, the majority of voters could hand the reins of power to a vengeful authoritarian demagogue. Instead, I’m sickened by the prospect that the electoral college can do that for us – that Kamala Harris could win the national popular vote, but come up short where it counts.We know the popular vote winner has already twice lost in this young century, in 2000 and again in 2016. But few realize how narrowly we missed a catastrophic result in 2020 when Biden won the national popular vote by a substantial margin – over 7 million votes. In every other democratic nation, such a result would have settled matters. Not in the US. Biden’s margin of victory in three key swing states – Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin – was razor thin, with fewer than 44,000 votes combined.It was no accident that Trump trained his efforts – the stuff of outstanding state and federal indictments – to overturn Biden’s victory in these three states. Had Trump succeeded in pressuring Georgia’s Republican secretary of state, Brad Raffensperger, to “find” the votes necessary to overcome Biden’s state lead, had he succeeded in submitting bogus slates of electoral college votes from Arizona and Wisconsin, he could have recaptured the White House.Now, once again, our nation is held hostage to our manifestly defective means of electing the president. How did we arrive at this perilous point? The drafters of the constitution, exhausted by long days of toil in Philadelphia’s steamy Independence Hall in the summer of 1787, settled on the electoral college in something of an afterthought. Unable to decide between letting Congress elect the president or giving full power to the people, they ended up retrofitting a device used by the Holy Roman Empire to “elect” monarchs and emperors. By letting every state legislature choose a body of electors (equal to the state’s representation in Congress), the system was meant to find citizens of public standing capable of wisely choosing a chief executive.Almost from the get-go, the system did not function as designed. With the rise of parties, states realized they could best leverage their power over the national outcome by awarding all their electoral college votes to the statewide winner of the popular vote – the system we have now. (By defeating Al Gore by 537 votes in Florida, George W Bush captured all of the citrus state’s electoral college votes and, with them, the White House.)Those who nowadays defend the electoral college as a device designed to make sure the presidency isn’t always captured by “coastal elites” are offering a justification that has nothing to do with college’s original logic and ignoring the fact that the vast number of American citizens live in coastal states. An electoral system that awarded four votes to citizens of Wyoming and a single vote to citizens of California would be dismissed as a transparent violation of the constitutional principle of “one person, one vote”. And yet this is exactly what the electoral college does.Worse still is how the electoral college dramatically magnifies the vote of citizens in a handful of swing states. Tens of millions of voters in non-competitive states are essentially disenfranchised. Kamala Harris presently enjoys a 24-point lead over Donald Trump in California. Votes for Trump in California count, then, for nothing, while all votes for Harris over the bare majority needed to win are utterly wasted. In the key swing states, things look very different.The entire election will turn on what happens in seven states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona. Voters in the remaining 43 states are reduced to the role of spectator. And so we’re left holding our breath, wondering whether American democracy will survive based on whether Arab Americans in Michigan feel betrayed by the Democratic party or whether Black men in Detroit, Milwaukee and Philadelphia will vote in sufficient numbers for Harris.A system that permits a national election to turn on the outcome in a handful of counties in a handful of states is tailor-made for a candidate intent on sowing electoral chaos. When Trump incited a mob to attack the Capitol on 6 January 2021, his effort to remain in power had already failed. Every state (and the District of Columbia) had already certified its result, thanks to the honest and tireless efforts of election officials of both parties. The insurrection simply promised to delay the inevitable.This time around, the Maga team knows better. This time, it will devote its efforts to monkeying with the state count. They have already succeeded in inserting a substantial number of Trump loyalists into key positions within the election infrastructure of the swing states. It doesn’t take much to muddy the outcome of a close state contest by targeting specific counties – especially when Trump has primed his supporters to reject any result that doesn’t result in his victory.Given the dangers and dysfunctions of the electoral college, it is unsurprising that since 1816 there have been over 700 proposed amendments to reform or simply abolish the system. And yet all have foundered on the constitution’s arduous amendment process, which throughout our history has frustrated vitally needed constitutional change and now leaves us stuck with an electoral process that no one would seriously consider if tasked with designing a fresh system.And so we face the ominous prospect that this defect of constitutional design may – against the wishes of the majority of American people – deliver a result that tolls the end of liberal democracy in America. Sickening.

      Lawrence Douglas is the author, most recently, of Will He Go? Trump and the Looming Election Meltdown in 2020. He is a contributing opinion writer for the Guardian US and teaches at Amherst College More

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      in US Politics

      Do Democrats have a ‘men’ problem? – podcast

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      The Harris campaign, which has been praised for how it has managed to reach out to women, is now having to balance their attention and pitch some policies that would appeal to men.
      But is it too little too late? Jonathan Freedland speaks to Richard Reeves, the president of the American Institute for Boys and Men, and Gloria Oladipo, a breaking news reporter for Guardian US, about why men could decide this year’s election and why both campaigns might be taking them for granted

      How to listen to podcasts: everything you need to know More

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      in US Politics

      Harris says Americans are done with Trump’s ‘gaslighting’ at Wisconsin campaign rally – US politics live

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      Meanwhile, in LaCrosse, Wisconsin, Kamala Harris slammed Trump’s performance at the Univision town hall yesterday, when he referred to 6 January 2021, when rioters stormed the capitol and injured over 140 police officers, “a day of love”.“The American people are exhausted with his gaslighting. Enough. We are ready to turn the page. We’re done,” she said.During the Univision town hall, a Republican voter told Trump the former president had lost his vote due to his response to the January 6 riots and the coronavirus pandemic. Trump responded: “Nothing done wrong at all.”“There were no guns down there. We didn’t have guns. The others had guns, but we didn’t have guns,” he said. “And when I say we, these are people that walked down – this was a tiny percentage of the overall which nobody sees and nobody, nobody shows. But that was a day of love.”

      Joe Biden has released a statement on Israel’s killing of Hamas’s chief Yahya Sinwar. In his statement, Biden called the killing a “good day for Israel, for the United States, and for the world,” adding that he planned to speak to Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders.

      Kamala Harris also commented on Israel’s killing of Yahya Sinwar while on the campaign trail in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. “This moment gives us an opportunity to end the war in Gaza,” the US vice-president and Democratic nominee for president in this election, said.

      Donald Trump told the audience at the Univision town hall last night that “we can’t destroy our country” in order to save the planet from the climate crisis. Answering a question from a veteran construction worker, who had seen first-hand “the devastating impacts of climate change”, whether he still believed global warming was a hoax, Trump launched into a lengthy tirade.

      At a rally in Durham, North Carolina, Tim Walz delivered a fiery criticism of Donald Trump.“When Trump is talking about bringing back stop-and-frisk policies, those are harassment that went on to the Black community, specifically Black males, and put a disproportionate number of them into incarceration,” he told supporters.

      Biden announced today further student debt relief for public servants – amounting to about $4.5bn. The action affects about 60,000 borrowers across the country, said the White House, touting the efforts of the US president and Harris to improve loan forgiveness since taking office.
      Surrogates for the Walz/Harris campaign, meanwhile, are questioning Trump’s cognitive abilities, pointing to his recent 40-minute musical interlude at a town hall where he was meant to be answering voters’ questions.Here’s Mark Cuban, the billionaire executive and TV personality who appeared alongside Harris in Wisconsin:Bill Clinton, who appeared with Walz in North Carolina, quipped: “Heck, I’m only two months younger than Donald Trump. But the good news for you is I will not spend 30 minutes swaying back and forth to music.”Meanwhile, in LaCrosse, Wisconsin, Kamala Harris slammed Trump’s performance at the Univision town hall yesterday, when he referred to 6 January 2021, when rioters stormed the capitol and injured over 140 police officers, “a day of love”.“The American people are exhausted with his gaslighting. Enough. We are ready to turn the page. We’re done,” she said.During the Univision town hall, a Republican voter told Trump the former president had lost his vote due to his response to the January 6 riots and the coronavirus pandemic. Trump responded: “Nothing done wrong at all.”“There were no guns down there. We didn’t have guns. The others had guns, but we didn’t have guns,” he said. “And when I say we, these are people that walked down – this was a tiny percentage of the overall which nobody sees and nobody, nobody shows. But that was a day of love.”At a rally in Durham, North Carolina, Tim Walz delivered a fiery criticism of Donald Trump.“When Trump is talking about bringing back stop-and-frisk policies, those are harassment that went on to the Black community, specifically Black males, and put a disproportionate number of them into incarceration,” he told supporters.Walz also slammed the idea that Trump “understood” the needs of voters. “If any of our relatives … tells us ‘Donald Trump understands us’, that’s bullshit. He does not understand us. He does not understand you,” Walz said, noting that the former president didn’t “give a damn” if social security checks cleared.He appeared at the rally alongside former president Bill Clinton.Senior Democrats in US cities are preparing to defend their communities in the event of Donald Trump’s return to the White House after the former president has repeated threats that he would use presidential powers to seize control of major urban centers.Trump has proposed deploying the military inside major cities largely run by Democrats to deal with protesters or to crush criminal gangs. He has threatened to dispatch large numbers of federal immigration agents to carry out mass deportations of undocumented people in so-called “sanctuary” cities.He also aims to obliterate the progressive criminal justice policies of left-leaning prosecutors.“In cities where there has been a complete breakdown of law and order … I will not hesitate to send in federal assets including the national guard until safety is restored,” Trump says in the campaign platform for his bid to become the 47th US president, Agenda47.Trump provoked uproar earlier this week when he called for US armed forces to be deployed against his political rivals – “the enemy within” – on election day next month. But his plans to use national guard troops and military personnel as a means to attack those he sees as his opponents go much wider than that, spanning entire cities with Democratic leadership.Mayors and prosecutors in several US cities are collaborating over strategies to minimize the fallout. Levar Stoney, the Democratic mayor of Richmond, Virginia, a city of more than 220,000, said he was aware how difficult it would be to resist Trump given the enormous powers at a president’s disposal.“It’s very difficult to autocrat-proof your city,” he said. “But you have to have backstops, and mayors are working in coalition to ensure they can be a backstop against these divisive policies.”Read more:Newly unsealed divorce records show Arizona congressman Ruben Gallego, the Democratic nominee for an open Senate seat, petitioned a court to end his marriage with Kate Gallego, Phoenix’s mayor, just before she gave birth to their son. But it contained none of the potentially damaging details conservatives had hoped to uncover.Gallego’s opponent, Kari Lake, has long alluded to the filings, making insinuations that their contents would tarnish his public persona. Ahead of the release, one of her advisers sought to distance the campaign from the effort to unseal the documents, an effort brought by the conservative outlet, Washington Free Beacon.The couple split in 2016 after six years of marriage. The congressman has previously said that his post-traumatic stress disorder from serving in Iraq contributed to the demise of their marriage.The Gallegos had fought the release, expressing concern that the public disclosure could endanger their son, Michael. The effort to keep the records sealed fanned rightwing speculation about what was in them.Kate Gallego has endorsed her husband’s Senate bid.In June, Yavapai superior court judge John Napper, who originally presided over the Free Beacon’s case, tempered expectations well in advance, according to a video obtained by 12 News.“Everyone’s going to be rather deflated with the results of it,” Napper said, adding: “I’m not a politician, and maybe this will be very, very important information but this looks to me like one of the most garden-variety divorce files I have ever seen.”The US has granted temporary protected status to Lebanese nationals amid Israel’s deadly war on the country. The Guardian’s Michael Sainato reports:The US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced a new “temporary protected status” allowing Lebanese nationals in the US to remain in the country and apply for work permits, as the “ongoing armed conflict” in Lebanon continues with Israel expanding its invasion and its attacks on Hezbollah.As of July 2024, around 11,500 Lebanese nationals were believed to be in the US on nonimmigrant visas for business, tourism, temporary work or other opportunities, with California and Michigan hosting the most. About 11,000 of them will probably now be eligible to apply for temporary protected status, as well as for deferred enforced departure – in other words, protection from deportation. An additional 1,740 students from Lebanon may also be eligible for special student relief.For the full story, click here:The Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer, has also weighed in on Israel’s killing of Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar, saying in a statement on Thursday:
      Sinwar has the blood of countless innocents in Israel and Gaza on his hands and the world is a much better place without him …
      Sinwar in his beliefs and actions have caused so much pain to the Israeli and Palestinian people; and I pray that his elimination from the scene will clear a path to urgently and immediately bring home all the hostages – including the seven Americans – and negotiate an end to hostilities that will ensure the security of the Israeli people and provide full humanitarian relief and a new path forward for the people of Gaza.
      Schumer made no mention of Palestinians’ right to self-determination.The US will try to push forward a ceasefire and hostage-release proposal following Israel’s killing of Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar, Reuters reports.Speaking during a press briefing on Thursday, state department spokesperson Matthew Miller said: “Over the past few weeks, there have been no negotiations for an end to the war because Sinwar has refused to negotiate.”Joe Biden has released a statement on Israel’s killing of Hamas’s Gaza chief Yahya Sinwar.In his statement, Biden called the killing a “good day for Israel, for the United States, and for the world”.Biden went on to add, “As the leader of the terrorist group Hamas, Sinwar was responsible for the deaths of thousands of Israelis, Palestinians, Americans, and citizens from over 30 countries.”“Over 1,200 people were killed on that day, the deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust, including 46 Americans. More than 250 were taken hostage, with 101 still missing. That number includes seven Americans, four of whom are believed to still be alive and held by Hamas terrorists. Sinwar is the man most responsible for this, and for so much of what followed,” Biden continued in his statement.He added that he will be speaking soon with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders to “discuss the pathway for bringing the hostages home to their families, and for ending this war once and for all, which has caused so much devastation to innocent people.”Notably, Biden made no mention of the 42,400 Palestinians – including healthcare workers and journalists – that Israeli forces killed since October or the nearly 2 million survivors who Israeli forces have forcibly displaced across the narrow strip.Moments ago, Kamala Harris stepped up to a podium while on the election trail in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and commented on Israel’s stating that it killed Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, in a battle in Gaza today.“This moment gives us an opportunity to end the war in Gaza,” the US vice-president and Democratic nominee for president in this election, said.She said “justice has been served” over the reported killing of the leader of the Islamist militants that control Gaza.Harris reiterated the administration’s stance that “Israel has the right to defend itself and called for the remaining hostages held by Hamas since it led an attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, to be released.But she added that “the suffering must end” in Gaza and said it was “time for the day after to begin without Hamas in power”. Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not pledged a ceasefire.We are live blogging all the developments in Gaza, Lebanon and Israel, here.In the Middle East, the government of Israel has announced its military forces have killed Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, in a battle in Gaza. This comes less than three weeks after Israel also killed Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah, during air strikes on the outskirts of Beirut in Lebanon.Confirmation on Sinwar’s death is awaited from the Palestinian side. If verified that means the heads of Iran’s two most powerful proxy forces opposed to Israel have been wiped out. We are following all the developments on this live in our international blog and you can find all that news here.Hello, US politics blog readers, it’s another lively day on the campaign trail with less than three weeks to go before the election. There’s a lot more news to come and we’ll keep up with developments as they happen.Here’s where things stand:

      Donald Trump told the audience at the Univision town hall last night that “we can’t destroy our country” in order to save the planet from the climate crisis. Answering a question from a veteran construction worker, who had seen first-hand “the devastating impacts of climate change”, whether he still believed global warming was a hoax, Trump launched into a lengthy tirade.

      Kamala Harris posted that “Donald Trump incited an attack on our nation’s democracy because he didn’t like the outcome of the election. If January 6 [2021] was a bridge too far, there is a place for you in our campaign.” This is further outreach from the Democratic nominee for president herself, including to hammer home facts about the insurrection at the US Capitol that day. It came a day after she did an interview with rightwing Fox News and led a rally attended by more than 100 prominent Republicans.

      Tim Walz, Harris’s running mate, will campaign in Durham and Winston-Salem in North Carolina with Common today, to mark the first day of early voting in that important swing state. The Emmy-winning rapper and voting rights activist is to join Walz in Winston-Salem, in a push to get out the vote.

      Harris is on a swing through two vital “blue wall” states today, with campaign stops including Milwaukee, La Crosse and Green Bay in Wisconsin, then heading to Grand Rapids, Michigan.

      Joe Biden announced today further student debt relief for public servants – amounting to about $4.5bn. The action affects about 60,000 borrowers across the country, said the White House, touting the efforts of the US president and Harris, his vice-president and successor as presidential nominee, to improve loan forgiveness since taking office. More

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      in US Politics

      Chiefs owner backs Harrison Butker’s political push for ‘traditional values’

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      The owner of the Kansas City Chiefs said on Wednesday that he has no issue with kicker Harrison Butker forming a political action committee designed to encourage Christians to vote for what the Pac describes as “traditional values”.Butker announced his Upright Pac last weekend in a series of posts on social media.“One of the things I talk to the players every year about at training camp is using their platform to make a difference,” Chiefs chairman Clark Hunt said. “We have players on both sides of the political spectrum, both sides of whatever controversial issue you want to bring up. I’m not at all concerned when our players use their platform to make a difference.”Butker is front and center on the website of the Upright Pac along with Missouri Republican senator Josh Hawley, who earned the kicker’s endorsement in his re-election bid against Democrat Lucas Kunce.“We’re seeing our values under attack every day. In our schools, in the media, and even from our own government. But we have a chance to fight back and reclaim the traditional values that have made this country great,” the Pac says on its website. “We are working to mobilize Christians across this country to make sure we protect these values at the ballot box.”Butker first made what he called a “very intentional” foray into politics in May, when he delivered a polarizing commencement address at Benedictine College, a private Catholic liberal arts school in Atchison, Kansas. The three-time Super Bowl champion said, among other things, that most of the women receiving degrees were probably more excited about getting married and having children than working, and that some Catholic leaders were “pushing dangerous gender ideologies onto the youth of America”.Butker also attacked Pride month and Joe Biden’s stance on abortion.The NFL distanced itself from Butker’s comments, issuing a statement afterward that said: “His views are not those of the NFL as an organization. The NFL is steadfast in our commitment to inclusion, which only makes our league stronger.”At training camp before the season, Butker said he was glad he had voiced his opinions. “I’ve just decided, ‘You know what? There’s things that I believe wholeheartedly that I think will make this world a better place,’ and I’m going to preach that,” Butker said. “If people don’t agree, they don’t agree, but I’m going to continue to say what I believe to be true and love everyone along the way.”The Hunt family has supported a group urging Missouri voters to reject a ballot measure that would overturn a near-total ban on abortion in the state through Unity Hunt, the company that oversees the assets of the Lamar Hunt family. The Chiefs have declined to comment on the $300,000 donation other than confirming to the Kansas City Star that the money was wired by Clark Hunt’s half-brother, Lamar Hunt Jr, through his account with Unity Hunt.Meanwhile, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes said last month that he would not endorse Donald Trump or Kamala Harris in the November election, even as the former president repeatedly referred to the player’s wife, Brittany, as a supporter of his campaign.“I don’t want my place and my platform to be used to endorse a candidate,” Mahomes said. “My place is to inform people to get registered to vote. It’s to inform people to do their own research and then make the best decision for them and their family.”Those comments came less than a day after Taylor Swift, who is dating the Chiefs’ Travis Kelce and has become friends with the Mahomes family, endorsed Harris for the presidency. That led Trump to tell Fox News: “I actually like Mrs Mahomes much better, if you want to know the truth. She’s a big Trump fan. I like Brittany. I think Brittany is great.”Patrick Mahomes was asked on Wednesday about Trump’s references to his wife and said “at the end of the day, it’s about me and my family and how we treat other people.”“I think you see Brittany does a lot in the community. I do a lot in the community to help bring people up, and give people an opportunity to use their voice,” he said. “In political times, people are going to use stuff here and there, but I can’t let that affect how I go about my business every single day of my life, and trying to live it to the best of my ability.” More

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      in Elections

      JD Vance falsely claims Donald Trump didn’t lose 2020 election

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      The Republican vice-presidential candidate, JD Vance, told a reporter on Wednesday that there were “serious problems” in the 2020 election and suggested for the first time that the then president Donald Trump did not actually lose the race.“Did Donald Trump lose the election? Not by the words that I would use,” Vance said in Williamsport, Pennsylvania. “But look, I really couldn’t care less if you agree with me or disagree with me on this issue.”He was pressed on his response by a reporter later in the day on another campaign stop in Wilmington, North Carolina, saying: “I think that big tech rigged the election in 2020. That’s my view. And if you disagree with me, that’s fine.”The response comes in the wake of a non-response earlier this month, when during an interview with the New York Times, Vance was given five opportunities to “acknowledge that Trump did not win in 2020” and he “refused to say so”.Trump notably lost the 2020 election and currently faces numerous charges related to election interference after being found guilty in May 2024 on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in a New York hush-money trial.The Harris campaign criticized Vance’s responses to the question about the 2020 election.“There we have it – JD Vance finally admitted he denies the 2020 election results,” a Harris campaign spokesperson, Matt Corridoni, said in a statement. “As Governor Walz said on the debate stage weeks ago, Donald Trump selected Vance for this exact reason – he knows Vance will be a loyal soldier in Trump’s pursuit for absolute, unchecked, limitless power.”Previously, Vance has sidestepped answering the question directly, deflecting when pressed by the Democratic vice-presidential candidate, Tim Walz, during a debate if Trump lost the 2020 election. He also downplayed the insurrection on 6 January, 2021.

      Don’t miss important US election coverage. Get our free app and sign up for election alerts
      “Tim, I’m focused on the future. Did Kamala Harris censor Americans from speaking their minds in the wake of the 2020 Covid situation?” Vance said.In September 2024, during a podcast interview, Vance responded to a question on what he would have done differently than the former vice-president Mike Pence in January 2021: “I would have asked the states to submit alternative slates of electors and let the country have the debate about what actually matters and what kind of an election that we had.”Vance was once a critic of Trump, comparing him to Hitler ahead of the 2016 presidential election. He shifted toward backing Trump’s election denial claims as he vied to be his running mate.Shortly before joining the Trump campaign, Vance claimed in an interview with the ABC News This Week anchor George Stephanopoulos: “Mike Pence could have done more, whether you agree or disagree, Mike Pence could have done more to sort of surface some of the problems in the 2020 election.”Trump has claimed there will be a “bloodbath” if he does not win the 2024 election. He also claimed his supporters will not have to vote any more if he wins as Trump and his allies have laid the foundation to contest the 2024 election results. More

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      in US Politics

      If Trump wins the election, US cities are at risk of military takeovers and mass deportations

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      This is the first part of the standfirst This is the second part of the standfirst Headline what’s at stake?
      Senior Democrats in US cities are preparing to defend their communities in the event of Donald Trump’s return to the White House after the former president has repeated threats that he would use presidential powers to seize control of major urban centers.Trump has proposed deploying the military inside major cities largely run by Democrats to deal with protesters or to crush criminal gangs. He has threatened to dispatch large numbers of federal immigration agents to carry out mass deportations of undocumented people in so-called “sanctuary” cities.He also aims to obliterate the progressive criminal justice policies of left-leaning prosecutors.“In cities where there has been a complete breakdown of law and order … I will not hesitate to send in federal assets including the national guard until safety is restored,” Trump says in the campaign platform for his bid to become the 47th US president, Agenda47.View image in fullscreenTrump provoked uproar earlier this week when he called for US armed forces to be deployed against his political rivals – “the enemy within” – on election day next month. But his plans to use national guard troops and military personnel as a means to attack those he sees as his opponents go much wider than that, spanning entire cities with Democratic leadership.Mayors and prosecutors in several US cities are collaborating over strategies to minimize the fallout. Levar Stoney, the Democratic mayor of Richmond, Virginia, a city of over 220,000, said he was aware how difficult it would be to resist Trump given the enormous powers at a president’s disposal.“It’s very difficult to autocrat-proof your city,” he said. “But you have to have backstops, and mayors are working in coalition to ensure they can be a backstop against these divisive policies.”Gillian Feiner, senior counsel of States United Democracy Center, a non-partisan group working to advance democracy and fair and secure elections, said that many organizations were evaluating the legal landscape and preparing for practical challenges should Trump win. “State officials’ awareness of the threat level is high,” she said, noting that their alertness stood in contrast to 2016 when many states were taken by surprise by Trump’s actions.Larry Krasner, the progressive district attorney of Philadelphia with whom Trump clashed several times during his presidency, said he was taking the former president at his word. “It is incredibly serious for big cities that lean strongly Democratic, as Philadelphia does, when a potential president who identifies with dictators all over the world talks about conferring on federal authorities powers they do not have.”View image in fullscreenKrasner predicted that Trump would face severe blowback if he tried to carry out any of his menaces. “We’re not going to let somebody carry out a coup as soon as he’s in office, whether with tanks or on paper. My father served in world war two, and countless Americans died to resist fascism. If anybody tries to orchestrate a coup they’re going to encounter tremendous resistance.”Trump’s disdain for cities run by Democrats has been a consistent theme of his politics. In his 2017 inauguration speech he vented against the “crime and the gangs and the drugs” within “inner cities”, dubbing them “this American carnage”.During the turbulence following the police killing of George Floyd in 2020, Trump sent hundreds of Department of Homeland Security (DHS) officers, including border patrol Swat teams from the Bortac unit, to Portland and Seattle to protect federal property in running battles with militant protesters. Democratic officials in Portland asked for the 750 officers to be withdrawn, saying they were exacerbating the crisis, and a later investigation by the DHS inspector general criticized the deployment as ill-conceived and poorly executed.A spokesperson for Portland’s mayor, Ted Wheeler, said that “city leadership and bureaus have been working for months in collaboration with our external partners to prepare for the upcoming election”, but declined an interview request.View image in fullscreenTrump also deployed the national guard and Secret Service agents in the nation’s capital in June 2020. Federalised officers used tear gas and flash bangs to disperse a Black Lives Matter crowd in Washington DC so that the sitting president could stage a much derided photo op in which he raised a Bible outside St John’s church close to the White House.In total, federal Swat teams drawn from 16 government divisions were deployed to quell the nationwide civil unrest following Floyd’s death, an audit from the Government Accountability Office found.In the build-up to November’s election, Trump has made his attack on big liberal cities a central pillar of his re-election campaign. Ahead of the Republican national convention, which nominated him as presidential candidate, he called Milwaukee, host of the event, a “horrible city”.He has also denigrated Washington DC, telling a campaign rally last month that he would “take over the horribly run capital of our nation … clean it up, renovate it, rebuild it, so there’s no longer a nightmare of murder and crime”.The most searing of Trump’s threats towards cities is that he will deploy the national guard, or even regular military forces, to combat urban protests and crime. He told a rally in Davenport, Iowa, last year that he would be much more aggressive in pursuing cities in a second term, saying that he would not wait to be invited in by mayors or governors but would act unilaterally.View image in fullscreen“The next time I’m not waiting [for local approval]. We don’t have to wait any longer. We got to get crime out of our cities,” he said, specifically referencing New York, Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco.Trump’s plans to deploy forces inside the cities depends upon his ability to bypass constitutional limits that generally forbid the military to be used in domestic law enforcement. The one exception is the Insurrection Act, which allows presidents to use the military or to federalise the national guard in order to restore order or put down a rebellion that is preventing the execution of US laws.“If I thought things were getting out of control, I would have no problem using the military, per se,” Trump told Time magazine in April. “We have to have law and order in our country.”@font-face{font-family:Guardian Headline Full;src:url(https://assets.guim.co.uk/static/frontend/fonts/guardian-headline/noalts-not-hinted/GHGuardianHeadline-Light.woff2) format(“woff2”),url(https://assets.guim.co.uk/static/frontend/fonts/guardian-headline/noalts-not-hinted/GHGuardianHeadline-Light.woff) format(“woff”),url(https://assets.guim.co.uk/static/frontend/fonts/guardian-headline/noalts-not-hinted/GHGuardianHeadline-Light.ttf) format(“truetype”);font-weight:300;font-style:normal}@font-face{font-family:Guardian Headline 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      Feiner said that should Trump invoke the Insurrection Act, which would put the national guard under the control of the president as commander-in-chief, there would be “enormous pressure to comply” with his orders. “But that’s not the end of the story. State and local officials have lots of levers they can pull to protect their citizens – both legally and practically – and that’s what we will see them do.”In the Time interview, Trump also opened up on his plans to send federal agents into cities to round up undocumented immigrants as part of his threat to carry out mass deportations. He railed against “sanctuary cities”, municipalities which welcome migrants and resist their police officers acting as immigration officials.“There’s a pent-up demand to end sanctuary cities, because it’s just not working out for the country,” Trump said. In Agenda47 he threatens to withdraw federal funds from local police forces that refuse to cooperate with the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (Ice).View image in fullscreenStephen Miller, Trump’s former senior White House policy adviser who is expected to make a comeback in a Trump second term, has laid out some of the plans for mass deportations in conversation with the rightwing activist Charlie Kirk. Miller spoke of deputizing national guard troops as immigration officers and sending them from Republican-controlled red states into Democratic-controlled blue states whose cities have large, concentrated immigrant populations.“If you’re going to go into an unfriendly state like Maryland, well, there would just be Virginia doing the arrest in Maryland, right – very close, very nearby,” he said.Ron Nirenberg, the independent mayor of San Antonio in Texas, said that forcing city officials to act as immigration agents would distract from their proper work. “Let’s be clear, local law enforcement has their hands full dealing with local issues, we don’t need them to be doing the jobs of state and federal authorities.”The mayor added that Trump’s rhetoric was already spreading fear among legal immigrants in San Antonio, whose population is 64% Hispanic. “People who are coming to the US through a legal asylum process are being forced to live in the shadows under threat of mass deportation that sends ripples of fear through families and neighborhoods.”Progressive prosecutors who fail to abide by Trump’s hardline approach – whether by abolishing cash bail requirements that disproportionately hit people of color, or by avoiding custodial sentences for lesser crimes – are also in his sights. He threatens in Agenda47 to instruct the justice department to carry out investigations into “radical Marxist prosecutors” in cities such as Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco to see if they have “illegally engaged in race-based law enforcement”.View image in fullscreenProsecutors are exploring how to protect their offices against a second-term Trump attack. Beth McCann, the Democratic district attorney of Denver, Colorado, joined a simulation exercise over the summer held by the Brennan Center for Justice that examined responses to a range of threats, including Trump sending in the national guard into cities.Krasner said that the potential of a Trump return to the White House had “reminded all of us who are progressive prosecutors that we have two jobs: to ensure public safety and justice, and secondly, to defend democracy”.The irony, Krasner said, was that Trump is justifying his aggression towards cities based on rising violent crime, when in fact homicides are down by more than 40% in Philadelphia this year. A report by the thinktank Third Way has found that for 23 consecutive years the murder rate has been higher in Republican states that have voted for Trump than in Democratic states.“The reality is that reform prosecution makes us safer,” Krasner said. “The policies that Trump represents – everybody should have a gun, mass incarceration is good, more division between rich and poor – get your ass killed in Republican states.” More

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      in US Politics

      Are Black voters abandoning the Democratic party? | Steve Phillips

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      Are Black voters gravitating towards Donald Trump in meaningful numbers? Recent polls and articles, most notably the New York Times/Siena College poll, have set off alarm bells across the country with their survey results finding the former president garnering historic levels of support among African American voters.The short answer is no, there is little credible evidence showing a meaningful shift in the levels of support Black voters give to Democrats. The longer answer is that the current chorus of media concern illuminates serious shortcomings in polling methodology, political interpretation of polling data, and the responsible communication of information to the public in an ostensible democracy.Ground zero for the latest round of articles and commentary is the 6 October New York Times/Siena College polling that found Kamala Harris attracting support from just 78% of Black voters. By contrast, the 2020 exit polls found that four years ago the Biden-Harris ticket was backed by 87% of African Americans. These recent poll results have spawned lengthy articles, extended podcast discussions and widespread water cooler conversation about just what’s going on with Black voters.There are four fundamental problems with relying on this single poll’s findings.First, the poll’s findings are contradicted by other contemporary polls sponsored by major news organizations. In the CBS News/YouGov poll conducted the week after the Times poll, Harris is backed by 87% of Black voters. NBC’s latest poll, concluded 8 October, pegs Harris’s Black number at 84%. The 8 October ABC News/Ipsos poll has Harris’s Black support at 82%.Second, there is a glaring methodological anomaly buried in the underlying data that raises serious questions about the cultural competence of those conducting the poll. When I was writing my first book Brown is the New White, I was guided by the data scientist Dr Julie Martinez-Ortega, who helped me grapple with the elemental, but actually quite complicated, question of which people in the population you include in the category of African Americans. The Census Bureau has two designations: “Black Alone” and “Black in Combination”. Martinez-Ortega schooled me to ignore the “in combination” grouping as it would yield a distorted picture of the Black population.Unfortunately, it appears that the New York Times received no such guidance, and their polling data includes truly astounding findings about the differences between Black Alone and Black in Combination. Among the Black Alone population, Harris receives the support of 80% of that group, but the Times finds that just 60% of the Black In Combination grouping supports Harris. Such a dramatic divergence of results from subsets of what are supposedly the same sector of the population raise profound questions about the entire data set.Which leads to the third problem: the lack of common sense. Good scientists look at the data they gather and then step back and try to make sense of it all. If a subset of data falls outside of the realm of decades of prior empirical findings, then one has to ask some basic questions.Is there a dramatic difference in the electoral behavior of African Americans and mixed-race Black people? Given that no Democratic presidential nominee has ever received less than 83% of the Black vote, how likely is it that Harris – a Black woman (and also an Asian woman) – is backed by a smaller share of the Black population than Michael Dukakis, John Kerry and a plethora of more mainstream Democratic presidential nominees? How do you reconcile these findings with the demonstrable and quantifiable Black enthusiasm for Harris in the form of the early Zoom calls that engaged tens of thousands of African Americans in a mere matter of hours; the 10,000 people who turned out to the early rally in heavily Black Atlanta, Georgia; and the historic fundraising numbers that have recently eclipsed $1bn? Which set of information is the outlier?Tied to the lack of common sense is the fourth problem: insufficient cultural competence. If someone who had deep and extensive experience with African Americans looked at the polling data, they could quickly spot the glaring anomalies. Black mixed-race people aren’t dramatically more pro-Republican than other African Americans. The enthusiasm and excitement demonstrated in the early Zoom calls flow from enduring a lifetime of disrespect and discrimination, and that excitement of finally having someone who shares your cultural experience in the White House isn’t going to dissipate over a few weeks.Now, to be sure, there are differences in Black voting behavior along gender lines. The most apt example to Harris’s situation occurred in Georgia when Stacey Abrams, an African American woman, won the Democratic nomination for governor. In both of Abrams’s runs, there was a nine-point difference between her support margins from Black women and Black men (97% from Black women in 2018 and 88% from Black men). And cultural competence and common sense would not find this surprising as sexism is embedded in the fabric of this nation and affects all racial groups.But even in Abrams’s case the vast, vast majority of African Americans backed the Black woman’s bid, and the pertinent and reliable data suggests that a similar phenomenon is unfolding in the 2024 presidential race. The overwhelming majority of Black Americans voted for Democrats in 2020 and in the 2022 midterms (86% according to the exit polls). That enthusiasm is only amplified for Harris.

      Steve Phillips is the founder of Democracy in Color, and author of Brown Is the New White: How the Demographic Revolution Has Created a New American Majority and How We Win the Civil War: Securing a Multiracial Democracy and Ending White Supremacy for Good More

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      in Elections

      Georgia election rules passed by Trump-backed board are ‘illegal’, declares judge

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      A Georgia judge has declared that seven new election rules recently passed by the state election board are “illegal, unconstitutional and void”.Fulton county superior court judge Thomas Cox issued the order Wednesday after holding a hearing on challenges to the rules. The rules that Cox invalidated include three that had gotten a lot of attention – one that requires that the number of ballots be hand-counted after the close of polls and two that had to do with the certification of election results.Cox found that the rules are “unsupported by Georgia’s Election Code and are in fact contrary to the Election Code”. He also wrote that the state election board did not have authority to pass them. He ordered the board to immediately remove the rules and to inform all state and local election officials that the rules are void and not to be followed.The Associated Press has reached out to the lawyers for the state election board, as well as the three Republican members who had supported the rules, seeking comment on the judge’s ruling. They could appeal but time is running short with less than three weeks to go until election day.The state election board, which is controlled by three Republicans endorsed by Donald Trump, has passed numerous rules in recent months mostly dealing with the processes that happen after ballots are cast. The former president narrowly lost Georgia to Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election but claimed without proof that widespread fraud cost him victory in the state.Democratic party organizations, local election officials and a group headed by a former Republican state lawmaker have filed at least half a dozen lawsuits over the rules. Democrats, voting rights groups and some legal experts have raised concerns that some rules could be used by Trump allies to delay or avoid certification or to cast doubt on results if he loses next month’s presidential election to Kamala Harris.Cox’s ruling came in a lawsuit filed by Eternal Vigilance Action, which was founded and led by former state representative Scot Turner, a Republican. The organization had argued that the state election board overstepped its authority in adopting the rules.Reached by phone Wednesday evening, Turner said he was “thrilled with the victory”.“It was a complete and total victory for the constitution of the United States,” he said. “These rules were opposed by citizens that are Republican, as well as Democrats and independents. This is not about party. It’s about doing what’s constitutional and re-establishing separation of powers, and that’s something that every conservative in this country should be concerned with and support.”One new rule that the judge blocked requires that three separate poll workers count the number of election day ballots by hand to make sure the number of paper ballots matches the electronic tallies on scanners, check-in computers and voting machines.Georgia voters make selections on a touchscreen voting machine that prints out a piece of paper with a human-readable list of the voter’s choices as well as a QR code. That is the ballot that the voter puts into a scanner, which records the votes. The hand-count would be of the paper ballots – not the votes.Critics, including many county election officials, argued that a hand-count could slow the reporting of election results and put an extra burden on poll workers at the end of an already long day. They also said there isn’t enough time to adequately train poll workers.Fulton county superior court judge Robert McBurney on Tuesday had temporarily blocked the hand-count for the November election while he considers the legal merits. He said the hand-count may ultimately prove to be good policy, but it’s too close to the general election to implement it now.Cox wrote that the rule “is nowhere authorized” by Georgia laws, which “proscribe the duties of poll officers after the polls close. Hand-counting is not among them”.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionTwo other new rules that Cox invalidated were passed by the state election board in August and have to do with certification. One provides a definition of certification that includes requiring county officials to conduct a “reasonable inquiry” before certifying results, but it does not specify what that means. The other includes language allowing county election officials “to examine all election related documentation created during the conduct of elections”.Supporters argued those rules are necessary to ensure the accuracy of the vote totals before county election officials sign off on them. Critics said they could be used to delay or deny certification.The first certification rule is not part of Georgia law and “adds an additional and undefined step into the certification process”, Cox wrote, saying it is thus “inconsistent with and unsupported by” Georgia law, making it “void and unenforceable”. The second rule is “directly inconsistent” with Georgia law, “which provides the time, manner, and method in which election-related documents must be produced and maintained”, he wrote.The other rules Cox said are illegal and unconstitutional are ones that: require someone delivering an absentee ballot in person to provide a signature and photo ID; demand video surveillance and recording of ballot drop boxes after polls close during early voting; expand the mandatory designated areas where partisan poll watchers can stand at tabulation centers; and require daily public updates of the number of votes cast during early voting.At least half a dozen lawsuits had been filed challenging some or all of the new rules. The Democratic National Committee and the Democratic party of Georgia had filed two lawsuits and joined others. Election boards in some counties and individual election officials in other counties had also sued. More