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      Opposition Forms New Coalition in Thailand After Election

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      Thais voted overwhelmingly for change on Sunday, but the military-appointed Senate could still block the opposition’s nomination for prime minister.The two opposition parties that won the largest share of the vote in Thailand’s general election over the weekend said on Monday that they had agreed to form a coalition government. It remained unclear, however, whether the ruling junta would hand over power easily.The results of the election were a stinging rebuke to the country’s military leaders, who have governed Thailand since seizing power in a coup in 2014. Although Thailand is a nation where coups are not uncommon, it had never been under military rule for so long.Many voters, disillusioned with the never-ending cycle of putsches and protests, used the election on Sunday to demonstrate overwhelmingly that they wanted change.“People have been through enough of a lost decade,” Pita Limjaroenrat, the leader of the progressive Move Forward Party, told reporters on Monday. “Today is a new day.”The Move Forward Party — which has called for an overhaul of the military and amending a strict law that criminalizes criticism of the Thai monarchy — secured 151 seats out of the 500-member House of Representatives. The result defied opinion polls, which had predicted a strong victory for Pheu Thai, the country’s largest opposition party, founded by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.Pheu Thai won 141 seats, which, like Move Forward, was short of a clear majority. The two parties announced during separate news conferences on Monday that they had agreed to work together to form a government.Mr. Pita has led the effort to build the coalition. He said that five parties, including Pheu Thai, had already joined him, boosting the opposition’s control over Parliament to 309 out of 500 seats. “It’s safe to assume that we have secured a majority in forming a government,” Mr. Pita said on Monday.Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, the general who seized power in the 2014 coup, said on Sunday that he “has respect for the democratic process and the election results.” His party, United Thai Nation, won only 36 seats.Prayut Chan-ocha, Thailand’s current prime minister and the United Thai Nation Party’s candidate, said he “has respect for the democratic process and the election results.”Lillian Suwanrumpha/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesMr. Pita’s quick work in assembling a coalition lowered some uncertainty around what many Thais have described as the most consequential election of their lifetimes. But it was still unclear if he would be allowed to lead the country as prime minister.The military-appointed Senate, which has the power to select the prime minister through a joint vote in parliament, may still block Mr. Pita from the position.Many analysts questioned whether the Senate would tolerate any election results that threaten the status quo. Move Forward has targeted institutions and policies once considered sacrosanct in Thai society, including abolishing mandatory military conscription and reducing the punishments for the law that protects the monarchy from criticism.With Pheu Thai in government, it could effectively place the party’s founder and one of the military’s top rivals, Mr. Thaksin, back at the center of the country’s politics. The king must also endorse the appointment of prime minister.At a news conference, Mr. Pita said he was not concerned about opposition from the Senate. “With the consensus that came out of the election, it would be quite a hefty price to pay for someone who’s thinking of abolishing the election results or forming a minority government,” he said. “And I don’t think the people of Thailand would allow that to happen.”But if history is any indicator, the military, which has dominated Thai politics for decades, is unlikely to relinquish power quickly. In addition to engineering a dozen coups within a century, Thai generals rewrote the Constitution in 2017 to stack the Senate with allies and ensure that the military would have the power to determine the country’s prime minister.Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Srettha Thavisin, Pheu Thai Party candidates for prime minister, after a news conference on Monday. Their party opted to form a coalition with the Move Forward Party.Lauren Decicca/Getty ImagesGregory Raymond, a lecturer researching Southeast Asian politics at the Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs, said there was still a possibility that the two military proxy parties — United Thai Nation and Palang Pracharath — could cobble together enough seats to mount their own claim to government. “That is still, in my mind, the last scenario. It would be highly undemocratic but can’t be ruled out at this point,” Mr. Raymond said.Analysts warned that the Senate choosing to block Mr. Pita’s appointment would likely galvanize protests in Thailand, plunging the country into more political turmoil.“I think the reaction will be much more dangerous than four years ago,” said Purawich Watanasukh, a research fellow at King Prajadhipok’s Institute in Thailand, referring to the nation’s previous election. “Right now, many people have Pita as their new prime minister in their minds. If Pita cannot be prime minister and Move Forward cannot form the government, it will break the people’s hearts. And it will be very, very bad.”In 2020, the country’s Constitutional Court disbanded the Future Forward Party, the previous iteration of the Move Forward Party, after the election. Tens of thousand of Thais took to the streets of Bangkok to protest the decision.What started out as a protest for democratic reforms quickly grew into a pro-democracy movement calling for checks on the Thai monarchy, a subject that was once considered taboo.The country’s conservatives are likely to step up their campaigns to block the rise of Move Forward in the coming days. Last week, a conservative candidate petitioned the Election Commission and the National Anti-Corruption Commission to investigate Mr. Pita for failing to disclose that he owned shares of a now-defunct media company that he had inherited from his father. By law, no candidates running for Member of Parliament are allowed to hold shares in a media firm.Mr. Pita brushed off the petition, saying he had already reported the shares to the authorities.But Move Forward will need to manage many competing interests to keep the coalition intact. It was the only large party that pushed to amend a law criminalizing criticism of the monarchy, arguing that the law had been weaponized by royalists to persecute protesters who participated in pro-democracy demonstrations.Anti-government protesters clashing with riot police in Bangkok in 2020.Adam Dean for The New York TimesOn Sunday night, Mr. Pita said he was still going to press ahead with amending the royal protection law.Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the youngest daughter of Mr. Thaksin and a Pheu Thai candidate for prime minister, said on Monday that she was “ready to discuss” the issue of young people being charged with violating the law, known as Article 112. But she added that her party would not vote to get rid of the law altogether.“We will have to tell Move Forward Party that we do not support the abolishment of Article 112,” she said.Pirada Anuwech More

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      A Crucial Question in Thailand’s Election: Can You Criticize the King?

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      Liberal voters have intensified their scrutiny of the Thai monarchy in recent years. Conservatives have responded with a campaign to defend the institution at all costs.When Thais go to the polls on Sunday, they will be voting in a closely fought election that is seen, in part, as a referendum on whether it is illegal to criticize the Thai monarchy.Thailand has one of the world’s strictest laws against defaming or insulting the king and other members of the royal family. Once considered taboo, the topic of the monarchy was brought to the forefront after tens of thousands of protesters took to the streets and called for checks on the institution’s power in 2020.The protests represented two sides of an impassioned struggle to determine the role of the crown in modern Thailand. The election could determine whether the Southeast Asian nation of 72 million will revive its once-vibrant democracy or slide further toward authoritarian rule, with royalists firmly in power.On one side of the debate are conservative political parties whose standard-bearer is Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, the general who has governed Thailand for nine years after seizing power in a coup. He and his supporters argue that amending the law could lead to abolishing the monarchy altogether, and have vowed to defend the royal family.On the other side is the progressive Move Forward Party, which is polling in second place and argues that the law needs to be amended because it is being used as a political weapon. Several young people who participated in the 2020 protests are now running as candidates with the Move Forward Party.Anti-government protesters flashing a three-fingered salute, a sign of resistance, at a demonstration in Bangkok in 2020.Adam Dean for The New York Times“Perhaps one of the deepest fault lines in Thai society is about the monarchy,” said Sunai Phasuk, a senior researcher on Thailand for Human Rights Watch.Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the youngest daughter of the ousted former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and the front-runner for prime minister, is treading carefully. Her father, a populist billionaire, is one of the most divisive political figures in Thailand. He lives in self-exile after being ousted in a coup in 2006 and can only return to Thailand with the king’s permission.Royalists have consistently accused Mr. Thaksin of wanting to overthrow the monarchy, a charge that he denies. Ms. Paetongtarn has said her party, Pheu Thai, would not abolish the law protecting the monarchy from criticism, but that the issue of reform must be openly discussed in Parliament.King Maha Vajiralongkorn greeting his supporters in Bangkok during a ceremony in remembrance of his father, King Bhumibol Adulyadej.Adam Dean for The New York TimesOpinion polls show that the party of Mr. Prayuth, United Thai Nation, is trailing in third place behind Pheu Thai, which has topped the polls. In recent weeks, there has also been a surge in support for the Move Forward Party, which is polling a close No. 2.Move Forward is the largest party pushing to amend the law, irking conservatives who have accused it of undermining the monarchy. The party wants to cut the jail terms of violators of the law and designate the Bureau of the Royal Household as the only agency allowed to file lawsuits. (Any Thai citizen is able to file complaints under the current version of the law.)Conservative politicians have threatened to disband Move Forward. The party’s previous iteration, the Future Forward Party, was dissolved in 2020 by the Constitutional Court. In a sign of how sensitive the topic of reform has become, Move Forward has attempted to moderate its position, saying reform would not take precedence in its campaign.For decades, the monarchy and the military have had a symbiotic relationship, with the army frequently reminding the public that it is the true guardian of the Thai crown. Thais are taught from a young age that they have to love the king and that any criticism of the monarchy is strictly forbidden.But today, many Thais no longer stand at attention when the royal anthem is played in public spaces such as movie theaters. Royalist Marketplace, a Facebook group set up to satirize the monarchy, had more than 1 million members before Facebook blocked access to it in 2020, citing a Thai government request.The law criminalizing criticism of the monarchy carries a minimum sentence of three years if violated — the only law in Thailand that imposes a minimum jail term — and a maximum sentence of up to 15 years. After the 2020 protests, the authorities charged at least 223 people, including 17 minors, for violating the law, known as Article 112.In the area around the Grand Palace in Bangkok, posters of the king and queen are ubiquitous.Adam Dean for The New York TimesTantawan “Tawan” Tuatulanon, a 21-year-old law student, was accused of violating the rule in 2022 after she and her friends conducted a poll asking whether the royal motorcade was an inconvenience to Bangkok residents.In recent weeks, she has been pressing political parties on whether they would amend the law — which she is in favor of abolishing — after the election. On Wednesday, Ms. Tantawan was arrested after she called for the release of a 15-year-old charged with violating the rule.“I feel we don’t need any law that specially protects anybody or any family,” said Ms. Tantawan, who mounted a hunger strike earlier this year in protest against the government. “He is a person like us, not a god or a demigod.”King Maha Vajiralongkorn Bodindradebayavarangkun, who ascended the throne in 2016, is not as beloved as his father, King Bhumibol Adulyadej, who reigned for 70 years. While King Bhumibol was revered in Thailand, his son used to spend most of his time in Germany, though he has been seen more often in public since the 2020 protests.In the wake of the protests, Mr. Prayuth instructed all government officials to “use every single law” to prosecute anyone who criticized the monarchy. Royalists stepped up their campaign against people they accused of insulting the crown, filing more complaints and attacking anti-monarchy activists.In 2021, Warong Dechgitvigrom, a former doctor, founded Thailand’s first far-right party, Thai Pakdee, in response to what he called the “Three Fingers Mob,” referring to the three-finger salute adopted by young Thais as a symbol of resistance during the 2020 protests.A supporter holds up a poster of King Bhumibol Adulyadej during a rally for Thai Pakdee, a right-wing party that is centered on defending the monarchy against criticism.Jorge Silva/ReutersHe now says the current law protecting the monarchy does not go far enough, as it is limited to shielding four key members of the royal family. Former Thai kings, princes, princesses and the word “monarchy” itself should also be protected, he said.Although Mr. Warong’s views are considered extreme, he says he has collected about 6,000 to 7,000 signatures for his proposal, and that he is confident he can gather the 10,000 signatures needed for the House of Representatives to consider passing the bill.Mr. Warong says people need to understand that the Thai monarchy is unique. He recalled France’s former monarchy as one characterized by the oppression of its people. “But ours is like father and children,” he said. “We have good feelings together, there are no bad feelings.”Those views are at odds with how many young people feel about the king. During the 2020 demonstrations, protesters questioned the wealth of the royal family, which is one of the richest in the world.Protesters in 2020 at a pro-democracy rally in front of the Siam Commercial Bank, demanding that the king return royal assets to the people and reform the monarchy.Adam Dean for The New York TimesKasit Piromya, a former foreign minister, said it would be challenging for Mr. Warong and his party to lead a successful campaign backing the constitutional monarchy because many young people “don’t see what is in it for them.”“If you cannot speak this in the open, then it gives more room and ammunition to the students, to the Thaksin supporters to say, ‘We are more democratic,’” Mr. Kasit said, referring to calls to reform the monarchy.Arnond Sakworawich, an assistant professor of statistics at the National Institute of Development Administration, said that preserving Article 112 was necessary because the king and the royal family do not defend themselves against criticism.“It’s a different culture, because in Thailand, people believe that the king is their parent, and parents never hurt their children,” said Mr. Arnond, who is known for his royalist views. “So there must be some people to protect the king.”In their zeal to defend the monarchy, many royalists may ultimately end up hurting the institution more than they protect it.Siripan Nogsuan Sawasdee, the head of the department of government at Chulalongkorn University, said it was “very precarious and risky” for parties such as Thai Pakdee to use the monarchy as a campaigning platform.“Even though the monarchy is above politics, it’s now drawn into the divide,” she said. “It will polarize the voters and parties into two camps, inevitably.”Young protesters flash the three-fingered, anti-government salute at a pro-democracy rally at Democracy Monument in Bangkok.Adam Dean for The New York TimesRyn Jirenuwat More

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      Thaksin Shinawatra’s Daughter Enters Thailand Election

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      An ousted populist’s daughter seeks office, fueling concerns that the return of a divisive political dynasty may revive instability, too.For close to two decades, the military and conservative establishment in Thailand has sought to keep former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his supporters out of power. Mr. Thaksin, a populist politician and a business tycoon, was ousted in a coup in 2006 before he fled the country. Several years later, his sister succeeded him as prime minister and then suffered the same fate.Now, conservatives are watching warily as his political party looks set to dominate next month’s election. The party’s star campaigner: Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Mr. Thaksin’s youngest daughter and a strong contender for prime minister.With a formidable last name but little in the way of political experience, Ms. Paetongtarn, 36, has revived the prospect of her father’s return from exile and the resurgence of the most politically polarizing dynasty in Thai politics. Critics have tried to seize on her family’s past scandals — and on her current pregnancy, eight months along — but she has galvanized crowds during campaign events and fueled nostalgia for her family’s legacy.Ms. Paetongtarn’s rise has stirred concerns that if she were elected, Thailand might return to the political instability that characterized the terms of her father and aunt, both of whom faced opposition from the military. Questions have dogged her campaign: What are her credentials besides her family name? Would she prioritize ending her father’s exile?Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, in Samut Prakan Province in April.Rungroj Yongrit/EPA, via ShutterstockJatuporn Prompan, a longtime ally of Mr. Thaksin’s, now estranged, said the candidacy of his daughter is a reflection of “how Mr. Thaksin thinks, that he doesn’t trust anyone but his family.”“She will face tremendous pressure from the opposition, be scrutinized and criticized,” Mr. Jatuporn said. “Mr. Thaksin shouldn’t do this to his children.”It remains unclear if Ms. Paetongtarn, a deputy chief executive of a family-run hotel management company, will ultimately get the top job. Pheu Thai, the party founded by her father, has named two other candidates for prime minister in addition to her: a real estate mogul and a former attorney general.It is likely that the 250-member military-appointed Senate, which ultimately votes for the prime minister, would resist choosing the daughter of a longtime nemesis. She also faces a challenge from the Move Forward Party, a progressive party that has appealed to the young.But there is no disputing that Mr. Thaksin’s political brand continues to be a force to be reckoned with in Thailand, even 17 years after he went into exile abroad.Pheu Thai supporters at a rally in Bangkok this month. Ms. Paetongtarn has galvanized crowds and fueled nostalgia for her family’s legacy.Lauren DeCicca/Getty ImagesSince 2001, the political parties he founded have consistently won the most votes in every election. (Pheu Thai is the third incarnation of Mr. Thaksin’s party after the previous two were dissolved.) Many Thais still recall fondly his populist agenda, in particular his $1 health care program and the disbursement of loans to farmers when he was prime minister from 2001 to 2006.“The whole sense of caring for the poor and the downtrodden and the ability of Thaksin to communicate in a simple Thai language to the 47 million Thai people — the have-nots — there has not been any Thai politician that has been able to give an alternative,” said Kasit Piromya, a former foreign minister who later became an outspoken critic of Mr. Thaksin.But that same popularity made Mr. Thaksin, 73, a threat to the conservative establishment: a nexus of Thai royalists; the wealthy and the military; and the Thais who support them. His political rivals have consistently accused him of trying to overthrow the Thai monarchy.Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha — the general who seized power from Ms. Thaksin’s sister in a 2014 coup and has ruled the country since as a staunch royalist — walked out of a news conference in January when a reporter tried to ask him about the possibility of Mr. Thaksin’s return. “Don’t talk about that person,” he said. “I don’t like it.”Despite Mr. Thaksin’s political misfortunes, he remains one of Thailand’s wealthiest people, with a net worth in 2022 of about $2.1 billion.In a 2001 photo, Thaksin Shinawatra, then the newly elected prime minister, stands with his wife, Potjaman; son, Parntongtae; and daughters, Paetongtarn and Pintongta.Sakchai Lalit/Associated PressMs. Paetongtarn has said there are “no plans” for her father, who lives mostly in Dubai, to return to Thailand, though Mr. Thaksin has said previously he would “definitely return” this year. Ms. Paetongtarn’s press team declined to make her available for an interview with The New York Times.Some Thais are frustrated that Mr. Thaksin’s possible return has once again become an election issue, for his popularity is not universal, particularly among younger voters.Accusations of corruption dogged Mr. Thaksin’s second term in office. In 2006, there were months of protests in Bangkok after reports that his family had netted $1.9 billion from the tax-free sale of their stake in Shin Corporation, a vast telecommunications conglomerate run by the family, to Singapore’s Temasek. The unrest culminated in a coup that year.In 2008, Mr. Thaksin fled to England, saying he could not get a fair trial on a series of corruption charges; he was later sentenced to a total of 12 years in prison.In 2013, Mr. Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck, who had become prime minister in 2011, proposed an amnesty bill to pardon people who committed offenses during the turmoil after the 2006 coup. This triggered violent protests. After another coup in 2014, Ms. Yingluck fled Thailand in 2017, shortly before she was to appear in court on negligence charges over a rice subsidy scheme.Protesters in Bangkok in 2006 calling for Mr. Thaksin’s resignation over the family’s $1.9 billion tax-free sale of stock of the Thaksin-founded communications giant Shin Corp. to a Singapore company.Narong Sangnak/European Pressphoto AgencyThe country has become more polarized in the years since Mr. Thaksin and his sister left. The split between the “red shirt” pro-Thaksin protesters from the rural north and the “yellow shirt” anti-Thaksin faction made up of royalists and the urban elite remains. A new political divide has also emerged — one that runs along generational lines.In 2020, tens of thousands of mostly young protesters gathered in the streets of Bangkok, calling for democratic reform, and, most surprisingly, checks on the monarchy’s power, a previously taboo subject in a country where criticism of the institution can lead to a maximum 15-year prison sentence.Once a stable ally of the United States, Thailand has moved closer to China under the military junta that ousted the Shinawatras. The country reported the slowest economic growth in Southeast Asia last year compared with other major economies in the region. Many Thais blame Prime Minister Prayuth, who is trailing in the polls.Echoing Mr. Thaksin’s populist policies, Pheu Thai has pledged cash handouts and an increase in the minimum wage to $18 a day from the current average of $10.Known widely by her nickname, “Ung Ing,” Ms. Paetongtarn is the third child of Mr. Thaksin and Potjaman Na Pombejra, who divorced Mr. Thaksin in 2008. As a little girl, she shadowed her father while he campaigned and played golf. She graduated with a degree in political science from Chulalongkorn University and then studied international hotel management at the University of Surrey in England.In a 2022 television interview, Ms. Paetongtarn recalled the day the army launched the coup against her father, when she was 20. She was studying with a friend when her mother called and told her to come home: “The tanks are out.” “Confused, I thought to myself: ‘What is a tank?’” Ms. Paetongtarn recalled. She said she cried and feared for the safety of her family.“The country needs to move forward,” she said in the same television interview.Mr. Thaksin said his daughter was drafted into politics after people said, “they wanted to see a Shinawatra family representative as a force in the party.” They had asked for a volunteer, “and Paetongtarn answered the call,” he told Nikkei Asia, a Japanese news outlet.The three candidates for prime minister from the Pheu Thai party, Srettha Thavisin, Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Chaikasem Nitsiri, at a rally in Bangkok this month.Lauren Decicca/Getty ImagesNattawut Saikua, director of the “Pheu Thai Family,” said he believes in Ms. Paetongtarn’s potential, citing her ability to galvanize crowds. “She will succeed” with the help of advisers, he said in an interview.It remains unclear if Ms. Paetongtarn’s campaign will resonate among Thai youths. Last month during a Pheu Thai rally, youth activists asked if Pheu Thai would amend the law that criminalizes criticism of the monarchy.Two activists present at the rally, Tantawan Tuatulanon and Orawan Phuphong, said that the group asked Ms. Paetongtarn to mark on a board if she agreed that the law, known as Article 112, should be abolished. According to Ms. Tantawan and Ms. Orawan, Ms. Paetongtarn told the activists: “I don’t want to participate in this activity.”Then she walked away.Ryn Jirenuwat More

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      Thai Hunger Strikers Calling for Changes to Monarchy Are at Risk of Dying

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      The two young women have not had food for 44 days, part of a campaign urging the government to repeal a law that criminalizes criticizing the royal family.A stream of protesters outside the Supreme Court in Bangkok held up the three-fingered salute — a symbol of defiance against the government. “Fight, fight, fight,” they yelled to two young women who were taken out of a makeshift tent in stretchers, both so weak that they could not open their eyes.The women, Tantawan “Tawan” Tuatulanon, 21, and Orawan “Bam” Phuphong, 23, were taken to a hospital on Friday evening after their family members and lawyer said that they were on the brink of death. They were on their 44th day of a hunger strike, protesting the detention of Thai political prisoners, calling for judiciary changes and the repeal of a law that criminalizes criticizing the Thai monarchy. Their plight has been discussed by Thailand’s House of Representatives and has drawn urgent expressions of concern from international human rights groups, which have called on the government to engage with the activists. In 2022, both women were accused of violating the law against criticizing the monarchy after they conducted a poll asking whether the royal motorcade was an inconvenience to Bangkok residents. They were released on bail in March that year under the condition that they no longer participate in protests or organize activities that defame the royal family.The doctors are now most concerned about the women’s kidneys failing, according to their lawyer, Krisadang Nutcharut. “Their parents and I were consulting each other and saw that they wouldn’t make it past tonight, according to the blood results,” Mr. Krisadang said.The women’s protest has presented the Thai government with a political dilemma two months before a general election: Meet their demands and risk appearing weak among voters or do nothing and face a potential fallout that could trigger widespread unrest.Kasit Piromya, a former Thai foreign minister, has called on Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha of Thailand to address the women’s demands. Mr. Prayuth, through a government spokesman, has said he hopes the two women are safe but urged parents to “monitor their children’s behavior” and for all Thais to “help protect the nation, religion and monarchy.”The women began their hunger strike in January. Last month, Ms. Tantawan, a university student, and Ms. Orawan, a grocery store worker, were hospitalized and put on saline drips after their conditions became critical. They have stopped drinking water but are sipping electrolytes on doctors’ orders.Orawan “Bam” Phuphong after leaving the hospital in Bangkok in February.Rungroj Yongrit/EPA, via ShutterstockOn Thursday, the pair announced that they would stop taking electrolytes, too. In an interview with The New York Times on Thursday evening, Mr. Krisadang said the women’s spirits remain unbowed.In January, Thailand’s justice minister told Ms. Tantawan and Ms. Orawan that the government would consider reforming the bail system, though he did not address their core demands, which include reforming the country’s judicial system.Thailand’s opposition parties, Pheu Thai and Move Forward, submitted an urgent motion for a debate in the House of Representatives in February to propose measures to save the women’s lives. The debates stopped short of addressing the activists’ demands to abolish lèse-majesté, the law that makes criticizing the monarchy illegal, fearful of alienating royalists before the election. (The protesters are also calling for the abolition of Thailand’s sedition laws.)Thailand has one of the world’s strictest lèse-majesté laws, which forbids defaming, insulting or threatening the king and other members of the royal family. Known as Article 112, the charge carries a minimum sentence of three years and a maximum sentence of up to 15 years. It is the only law in Thailand that imposes a minimum jail term.Previously, Thai authorities confined the use of lèse-majesté against people who explicitly criticized the leading members of the monarchy. But after Mr. Prayuth seized power in a coup in 2014, the number of topics that constituted lèse-majesté expanded to include criticism of the institution, and even deceased kings.Thailand informally suspended the use of the lèse-majesté law in 2018, according to Chanatip Tatiyakaroonwong, Amnesty International’s regional researcher on Thailand. The move coincided with calls from the international community for Thailand to respect their commitments to the United Nations’ International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights.But after the 2020 protests, Mr. Prayuth, who has repeatedly vowed to remain loyal to the monarchy, instructed all government officials to “use every single law” to prosecute anyone who criticized the monarchy.The authorities have charged at least 225 people, including 17 minors, for violating the lèse-majesté law since 2020. Thousands more have been slapped with other criminal charges. As more activists were targeted, the mass protests slowly began to wane.Protesters attending a pro-democracy rally demanding that Thailand’s King Maha Vajiralongkorn hand back royal assets to the people and reform the monarchy, in Bangkok in 2020. Adam Dean for The New York TimesSunai Phasuk, the senior researcher for Thailand for Human Rights Watch, said the case of Ms. Tantawan and Ms. Orawan and their public survey was the clearest example of how the law is being arbitrarily enforced. “The use of the lèse-majesté law has become more and more arbitrary, in that even the slightest criticism of both the individuals and the institution can lead to legal action,” he said.On Thursday evening, dozens of supporters appeared outside the Supreme Court in support of the women. They held sunflowers and cards that read, “Abolish lèse-majesté law.” (Ms. Tantawan’s name in Thai means “sunflower.”)“These kids are so brave, my generation cannot compete with them,” said Yupa Ritnakha, a 65-year-old supporter who was holding a bunch of sunflowers outside of the Supreme Court. “They are willing to die for their cause.”This is not Ms. Tantawan’s first hunger strike. In April 2022, she went on a hunger strike for over a month after she was detained for violating her bail by posting details of the royal motorcade on Facebook. She was released on bail once again, but placed under house arrest.Friends of Ms. Tantawan and Ms. Orawan say they are disappointed that the women’s campaign has failed to sway the general public or motivate the government to introduce reforms.“It’s unfortunate for them that this is happening at a low point of the protest movement,” said Mr. Chanatip, of Amnesty. “After three years of an official crackdown on the protests, people are quite burned out.”Ryn Jirenuwat More

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      Your Wednesday Briefing: Shanghai’s Devastating Outbreak

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      Also, the eight warmest years on record and a fragile political alliance in the Philippines.Even the lobby of this Shanghai hospital is crowded with patients. Qilai Shen for The New York TimesCovid rages in ShanghaiIn Shanghai last week, local health officials said that up to 70 percent of the city’s 26 million residents had been infected, and they expressed confidence that its Covid outbreak had peaked.But China’s Covid wave is still deluging its most populous city. The photographer Qilai Shen took pictures of the outbreak.Patients arrive at the emergency room.Qilai Shen for The New York TimesHospitals are overwhelmed. Staff members say they are overworked because many colleagues are absent after testing positive for the virus. Patients are being treated in every available space, including lobbies and hallways.Funeral homes are, too. Mourners grieve in the streets, holding the ashes of their loved ones.Mourners walked by a funeral home.Qilai Shen for The New York TimesContext: Shanghai endured one of China’s most grueling lockdowns last spring. Cots flooded dirty quarantine centers and residents were stuck at home for more than two months, fueling anger and anxiety.Global warming only continuesThe eight warmest years on record have occurred since 2014, European climate scientists said yesterday. Last year was the fifth-hottest year on record; 2016 remains the hottest ever.Despite a third year of La Niña, a climate pattern that tends to suppress global temperatures, Europe had its hottest summer ever in 2022. Eastern and Central China, Pakistan and India all experienced lengthy and extreme heat waves, and monsoon floods in Pakistan ravaged much of the country.Understand the Situation in ChinaThe Chinese government cast aside its restrictive “zero Covid” policy, which had set off mass protests that were a rare challenge to Communist Party leadership.Rapid Spread: Since China abandoned its strict Covid rules, the intensity and magnitude of the country’s outbreak has remained largely a mystery. But a picture is emerging of the virus spreading like wildfire.Rural Communities: As Lunar New Year approaches, millions are expected to travel home in January. They risk spreading Covid to areas where health care services are woefully underdeveloped.Economic Recovery: Years of Covid lockdowns took a brutal toll on Chinese businesses. Now, the rapid spread of the virus after a chaotic reopening has deprived them of workers and customers.A Failure to Govern: China’s leadership likes to brag about its governance of the country, but its absence in a moment of crisis has made the public question its credibility.Overall, the world is now 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.1 degrees Fahrenheit) hotter than it was in the second half of the 19th century, when emissions of planet-warming carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels became widespread.“If you draw a straight line through temperatures since 1970, 2022 lands almost exactly on where you’d expect temperatures to be,” one researcher said.The U.S.: Carbon emissions inched up last year, even as renewable energy surpassed coal power.Resources: Here’s a primer on the basic science behind climate change and photos of the crisis.Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., the president of the Philippines, and Sara Duterte, the vice president.Ezra Acayan/Getty ImagesA strategic Marcos-Duterte allianceThe children of two former autocratic presidents lead the Philippines: Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is president, and Sara Duterte is the vice president.Critics say their partnership is designed to protect their two powerful political families and shape their fathers’ legacies. Both patriarchs were accused of rights abuses and corruption, and both families face multiple legal challenges.Marcos and Duterte are working to present a united front. Marcos defended Rodrigo Duterte’s vicious war on drugs, and Sara Duterte defended the use of a controversial phrase in a new textbook that refers to the years of martial law under the elder Ferdinand Marcos.But their balance of power is fragile. Duterte, a popular former mayor, has shown she will not serve in Marcos’s shadow. She has set up satellite offices in key cities and could be a strong candidate in 2028.Diplomacy: The stakes are high for the U.S. as it tries to deepen its ties to Southeast Asia, where China is increasingly trying to gain influence. The Philippines is a key security partner and its oldest treaty ally in the region.Families: Dynasties dominate national politics in the Philippines — just a few families constitute up to 70 percent of Congress.THE LATEST NEWSAround the WorldMillions of Brazilians believe that October’s presidential election was rigged, despite analyses finding nothing of the sort.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesDeeply rooted conspiracy theories and mass delusion drove Brazilians to riot.Violent riots in Peru over the ouster of the former president are sweeping the country. At least 17 people were killed on Monday in what a rights activist called “a massacre” by security forces.President Biden is meeting with the leaders of Mexico and Canada in Mexico City. They are seeking to make headway on an immigration surge and the fight against drug trafficking.The War in UkraineSoledar, a small city in eastern Ukraine, is close to Bakhmut, Russia’s ultimate prize. Roman Chop/Associated PressThe fight for the small eastern city of Soledar has intensified, as Russia seeks to gain a foothold around Bakhmut, an eastern Ukraine city.The Wagner Group, a private military contracting company, has recruited prisoners and is leading the offensive for Russia. Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, said he would send more troops and arms to the east.Ukrainian soldiers will travel to the U.S. to learn how to operate the Patriot missile system.More than 200 Russian doctors signed a letter urging President Vladimir Putin to give Aleksei Navalny, the imprisoned opposition politician, medical care. They signed with their full names, a rare example of public criticism.U.S. NewsPresident Biden’s lawyers found classified documents in his former office, White House officials said.A 6-year-old who shot his teacher in Virginia last week appeared to do so intentionally, the police said.Heavy rains caused flooding in California.Damar Hamlin, the football player who went into cardiac arrest during a game, was released from intensive care.A Morning ReadThe Sydney Modern is an extension of the Art Gallery of New South Wales.Petrina Tinslay for The New York TimesThe Sydney Modern, which opened last month, doubles the exhibition space of one of Australia’s most important institutions. The modern design, and a new curatorial focus, are an attempt to reframe Sydney as a cultural hub with Indigenous roots and close ties to Asia, instead of looking to Europe or the U.S. for validation.ARTS AND IDEASHarry, unbuttoned“Spare” at a bookstore in London yesterday.Andrew Testa for The New York Times“Spare,” Prince Harry’s memoir, is an emotional and embittered book, my colleague Alexandra Jacobs writes in her review.“Like its author, ‘Spare’ is all over the map — emotionally as well as physically,” Alexandra writes. The entire project is mired in a paradox, she writes: Harry is demanding attention, despite his stated effort to renounce his fame.Above all, “Spare” is a bridge-burner, our London bureau chief writes. Harry frames his family as complicit in a poisonous public-relations contest, dashing hopes for a reconciliation anytime soon. He is raunchy, joking about a frostbitten penis and how he lost his virginity. He’s vindictive: He details fights with Prince William, portraying his brother as ill-tempered, entitled and violent. And he grieves his mother, Princess Diana, his repressed recollections unlocked by therapy and a whiff of her perfume.The deepening rift could complicate King Charles III’s coronation, planned for May. And the memoir may also finally exhaust the public’s patience with the self-exiled couple, even in the U.S. Still, the ubiquitous coverage is unlikely to damage sales, at least in the short term. Here are 11 takeaways from the tell-all.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookDavid Malosh for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews.
      Yakisoba is a Japanese stir-fried noodle dish with a tangy-sweet sauce.What to WatchHere’s what Times staff think should win at the Oscars.What to ReadIn “The Half Known Life,” a secular seeker visits holy sites to study ideas of the world beyond.How to WorkFocus like it’s 1990.Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: Messy situation (five letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you next time. — AmeliaP.S. Tell us about your reading goals for 2023.“The Daily” is on the meltdown of Southwest Airlines over the holidays.Questions? Comments? Email me at briefing@nytimes.com. More

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      Why Queen Elizabeth’s Strength Is Putin’s Weakness

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      Why is Vladimir Putin failing to win his war in Ukraine? The answers multiply: hubris, corruption and incompetence on the Russian side; military valor, canny leadership and American munitions on the Ukrainian side.But the death of Queen Elizabeth II and the wave of antique pageantry help illuminate one of the Russian president’s important weaknesses. He has been hobbled in his fight because his regime lacks the mystical quality we call legitimacy.Legitimacy is not the same thing as power. It’s what enables power to be exercised effectively amid trials and transitions, setbacks and successions. It’s what grounds political authority even when that authority isn’t delivering prosperity and peace. It’s what rulers reach for when they call their societies to sacrifice.In most of the world today there are only two solid foundations for legitimacy: the demos and the nation, democracy and national self-determination. The legitimacy that once attached to imperial rule has washed away, and likewise, outside of the Middle East and a few other places here and there, the legitimacy of hereditary monarchy. Alternative claims to legitimacy exist — the ideological authority invoked by the Beijing Politburo, the religious authority invoked by the mullahs in Tehran — but those claimants rely more on repression for power and survival.The Elizabethan pageantry emphasizes this global reality because the House of Windsor is an exception that proves the rule. Like almost no other institution in the West outside the Vatican, the British monarchy has retained a pre-modern, pre-democratic legitimacy; in the outpouring of secular grief there was still a sense that the queen was somehow God-ordained to sit on the throne. But the royal family has kept that legitimacy by giving up all but a fraction of its personal power; it has legitimacy and little else.In Moscow you have the contrast: personal political power, far greater than the power of King Charles III, that lacks deep legitimating structures. Putin is a pseudo-czar but not a real one, with no divine anointing or ancient oath. He claims some Russian-nationalist legitimacy, but his system is actually a polyglot imperium. He claims some democratic legitimacy by holding regular elections, but their results are neither fair nor free.So all he has to really justify his power is success. Which he has delivered for most of his career — a Russia richer and more stable than in the years before he took the presidency, and a series of successful foreign policy gambits.But now comes the test, the gambit that hasn’t delivered, the specter of defeat, and what does he have to fall back upon? Not the authority of a czar: He cannot mobilize the Russian people as feudal subjects, calling on them to treat imperial Russia’s grand projects as their own. Not the authority of a national leader in a struggle for self-determination: He is the invader; it’s Ukraine that’s fighting for a nation. And not the authority of a democratic leader: He cannot have his war policy vindicated in an election, as Abraham Lincoln did in 1864, because any election would be a masquerade.In recent years, as authoritarian leaders have gained ground around the world and democracy has decayed, there’s been a fear that these figures have a stronger hand to play than the dictators of the past, because their authoritarianism is gentler and subtler, and also wrapped in the legitimating structures of elections.But Putin’s predicament suggests that this subtler authoritarianism is weaker than its predecessors in a crisis. The 20th century’s totalitarian regimes often co-opted the rhetoric of democracy and nationalism, but at bottom they made their own unique (and dreadful) claims to legitimacy — the people’s republic, the rule of the master race. Putin, lacking any such foundation, cannot just be a proud imperialist or autocrat or revolutionary: He has to legitimize his ambitions in the frameworks of his Western enemies, with absurd results (Ukraine isn’t a real nation, Russia is liberating Ukraine from Nazis, the Russians are fighting for human rights).There are parallels to the internal politics of the United States, where movements tempted toward authoritarianism nevertheless legitimate themselves in the familiar language of democracy. Thus Donald Trump has to claim that the will of the people was thwarted in 2020, not that he had a right to autocratic rule. Likewise, the push from the left to cancel or de-platform, to steer public opinion via censorship, tends to be justified in the name of “safeguarding democracy.”This pattern doesn’t mean there aren’t authoritarian perils in our politics, anymore than Putin’s legitimacy problems make his invasion any less destructive. But it helps to see our crises clearly if you recognize that they’re still happening inside the lines of late modernity — that as Elizabeth II is laid to rest, nothing like her radically un-democratic legitimacy seems ready for rebirth.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTOpinion) and Instagram. More

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      Your Tuesday Briefing: Ukraine’s Advance Continues

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      Plus former British colonies weigh their relationship with the monarchy and Lebanon faces blackouts.Russia launched multiple missile strikes yesterday at a Ukrainian police station in Kharkiv.Nicole Tung for The New York TimesUkraine’s advance continuesUkraine reclaimed more ground yesterday and redoubled its calls for Russia to surrender in the south. In the northeast, Moscow acknowledged the loss of almost all of the Kharkiv region. Here’s a map of Russian losses.Russian officials described the retreat as a planned “regrouping operation,” and Moscow does still hold large areas of eastern and southern Ukraine. In apparent retaliation, Russian cruise missiles knocked out power to regions in the east and northeast as forces retreated, but Ukrainians in Kharkiv worked quickly to repair damaged infrastructure.Moscow’s stunning setback calls into question how much territory its once-daunting military can retain, especially amid a growing domestic backlash, which has made its way onto state television. Yesterday, municipal deputies from 18 councils in Moscow and St. Petersburg signed a petition calling on Vladimir Putin to resign. Here are live updates.Details: Ukraine has advanced faster than expected and is moving to consolidate control over the recaptured territory. Ukraine’s military said it pushed into an additional 20 towns and villages in 24 hours and claimed to have recaptured nearly 200 square miles in the southern region of Kherson.What’s next: The prosecutor general’s office in Ukraine is investigating possible war crimes in a recently liberated village near Kharkiv.Allies: Ukraine’s success has encouraged European allies ahead of what is expected to be a hard winter of rising fuel costs. It will most likely increase pressure on NATO members to supply Ukraine with heavier weaponry.In 1982, Queen Elizabeth II visited Tuvalu on a tour of the South Pacific.Tim Graham Photo Library via Getty ImagesFormer colonies mull their futureFrom the Caribbean to the Pacific, the death of Queen Elizabeth II accelerated a push to address the past in several former British colonies.Some countries are holding to the status quo. Yesterday, Jacinda Ardern, the prime minister of New Zealand, said that she thought her country would most likely become a republic in her lifetime. “But I don’t see it as a short-term measure or anything that is on the agenda anytime soon,” Ardern said.The State of the WarDramatic Gains for Ukraine: Ukraine’s lightning offensive in the country’s northeast has allowed Kyiv’s forces to score large battlefield gains against Russia and shift what had become a grinding war.Putin’s Struggles: Russia’s retreat in Ukraine may be weakening President Vladimir V. Putin’s reputation at home, and pro-war bloggers who cheered on the invasion are now openly criticizing him.Southern Counteroffensive: Military operations in the south have been a painstaking battle of river crossings, with pontoon bridges as prime targets for both sides. So far, it is Ukraine that has advanced.Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant: After United Nations inspectors visited the Russian-controlled facility last week amid shelling and fears of a looming nuclear disaster, the organization released a report calling for Russia and Ukraine to halt all military activity around the complex.Republicanism is more entrenched in Australia, which has a larger population of Irish descent. There, the queen’s death has created a political maelstrom.Australia’s government suspended Parliament for two weeks to commemorate her death, the BBC reports, a historic protocol. The move prompted blowback, The Sydney Morning Herald reports, among politicians who feared the suspension would delay or weaken integrity reforms promised by Anthony Albanese, the prime minister. Here are live updates about the queen’s death.Context: Fourteen former colonies retain the British sovereign as their head of state.Caribbean: On Saturday, the prime minister of Antigua and Barbuda announced plans to hold a referendum on becoming a republic within three years. Barbados voted to remove the queen as head of state last year.Scotland: New debates arose about the future of the independence movement.England: Anti-monarchists are treading lightly. They see King Charles III as an easier target than his revered mother — but are aware that they risk alienating people during the period of official mourning.“Sometimes I tell myself I’m not going to get sad, but I can’t help it,” said Hasmik Tutunjian, 66. “At night, I get into bed angry, I cry.”Lebanon’s grinding electricity crisisOppressive blackouts have drastically changed the rhythm of life in Lebanon.State-supplied power comes at random times, and for only an hour or two a day. Many residents have had to find coping strategies, my colleague Raja Abdulrahim reports from Beirut. Often, people do laundry and charge devices in the hours after midnight.This profound electricity crisis is a subset of Lebanon’s worst economic crisis in decades, which the World Bank said could rank among the world’s three worst since the mid-1800s in terms of its effect on living standards.The blackouts also underscore the country’s sharp socioeconomic inequalities. Lebanese inflation rose to 168 percent in the year that ended in July, and unemployment is skyrocketing. Now, only a few people can afford diesel-powered backup generators to combat the heat and darkness.Context: Lebanon has long had a dysfunctional electricity sector. But over the past year, acute fuel shortages have worsened power cuts.THE LATEST NEWSAsia and the PacificJacinda Ardern, New Zealand’s prime minister, said it was time to “turn the page” on Covid.Marty Melville/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesNew Zealand has removed most of its Covid restrictions, The Guardian reports.Japan may remove some pandemic border controls, the BBC reports.Pakistan is trying to protect a critical power station from floodwaters, Reuters reports. Millions rely on it for electricity.In Thailand, a 25-year-old activist who was said to have dressed up as Queen Suthida was sentenced to two years in prison for insulting the monarchy, Reuters reports.Around the WorldSweden is still counting votes from its Sunday elections. A coalition of right-wing parties narrowly leads the governing center-left bloc.A new analysis showed that child poverty in the U.S. fell by 59 percent from 1993 to 2019, highlighting the role of increased government aid.Wealthy countries snapped up monkeypox vaccines and treatments, leaving few for the rest of the world.What Else Is HappeningCarlos Alcaraz is the youngest man to win a Grand Slam title since Rafael Nadal in 2005.Michelle V. Agins/The New York TimesCarlos Alcaraz, a 19-year-old from Spain, won the U.S. Open men’s title.The Emmy Awards begin at 8 a.m. Hong Kong time, 10 a.m. Sydney time. Kenan Thompson of “Saturday Night Live” is hosting. Here’s how to watch.Scientists have sequenced complete fern genomes for the first time, to learn why the plants have twice as much DNA as humans.A Morning ReadSulfur-crested cockatoos, native to Australia, teach each other to open the bins. Ken Griffiths/AlamyThere’s an innovation arms race raging in the suburbs of Sydney, Australia. The front line: Garbage bins. The factions: humans and sulfur-crested cockatoos.ARTS AND IDEASStudent debt: No longer tabooIn the U.S., federal student loans are a legacy of the Cold War: They were first issued in 1958 in response to the Soviets’ launch of Sputnik. (The government was worried that Americans were falling behind in science.)Now, Americans collectively owe $1.7 trillion in federal student loans, and the cost of college has nearly tripled since 1980, even when adjusted for inflation. Last month, President Biden announced a student debt forgiveness program that could cost taxpayers $300 billion or more.Student debt has become a national dialogue, as more Americans have come to see it as a structural problem, rather than a result of poor personal decisions, and its stigma slips away.It’s even cropping up as a narrative device in contemporary fiction. In The Times, Jennifer Wilson describes the typical loan-crisis novel as “a stymied bildungsroman for a generation who have been robbed of the possibility of becoming, sold a story that would cost them everything.”PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookChristopher Testani for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Monica Pierini.Serve herb-marinated seared tofu over grains.What to WatchIn “The Fabelmans,” the director, Steven Spielberg, is the star. But Michelle Williams steals the show.What to Read“Like a Rolling Stone” is a new memoir from Jann Wenner, the co-founder of Rolling Stone magazine.Now Time to PlayPlay today’s Mini Crossword. And here’s a clue: Unattractive (four letters).Here are today’s Wordle and today’s Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you next time. — AmeliaP.S. The U.S. midterm elections are sure to get confusing. Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, will parse polling and politics in “The Tilt,” a new newsletter. Subscribe here.The latest episode of “The Daily” is on Serena Williams.You can reach Amelia and the team at briefing@nytimes.com. More

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      Prime Minister Liz Truss’s Dizzying First Week

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      Ms. Truss took over a British government facing an economic emergency. But those problems have been eclipsed by the queen’s death, an epochal event that has put politics on hold.LONDON — Last Tuesday, Prime Minister Liz Truss was moving into Downing Street and puzzling over how to help people pay their soaring gas bills. Two days later, she stepped out of her new home to pay tribute to a revered queen, Elizabeth II, and tell the country that Britain’s new king would henceforth be known as Charles III.Has any British leader had as head-spinning a first week on the job as Ms. Truss?Anointed by the queen in the last act of her 70-year reign, Ms. Truss took over a government facing an economic emergency. But those problems have been all but eclipsed by the queen’s death, an epochal event that has put Parliament on hold, moved the spotlight from the cost-of-living crisis to a monarch’s legacy, and handed Ms. Truss, 47, an unexpected new job as the government’s chief mourner.It’s a delicate assignment, one that could elevate Ms. Truss’s stature internationally but also trip her up at home. The crosscurrents were evident on Monday, when Downing Street walked back a news report that she would be joining King Charles on a mourning tour of the four nations of the United Kingdom.The report had raised eyebrows among some opposition lawmakers, who viewed her plans as presumptuous. A spokesman for Ms. Truss quickly clarified: The prime minister, he told The Guardian, would attend memorial services for the queen in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, along with Charles, but would not be “accompanying” the king on a tour.King Charles III and Prime Minister Liz Truss last week, during their first meeting at Buckingham Palace.Pool photo by Yui Mok“I don’t know what led to anyone thinking it was a good decision for either of them that she go to the capitals of the U.K. nations with Charles,” said Alastair Campbell, who was director of communications for Tony Blair when he was prime minister, and advised him on his response to the death of Princess Diana in 1997.“It’s not as though he is a novice at these kinds of visits,” Mr. Campbell said of the 73-year-old king. “She would have been far better advised getting her feet under the table in No. 10 and beginning to focus on the enormous challenges that are going to be there when the mourning is over.”Among those challenges: double-digit inflation, a looming recession, labor unrest and deteriorating public finances. On Monday, new data showed that Britain’s growth stagnated in the three months through July. Hours before the news of the queen’s death, Ms. Truss announced a sweeping plan to freeze energy rates for millions of households for two years at a probable cost of more than $100 billion in its first year.It was a startling policy response right out of the gate, underscoring the depth of the crisis. But the round-the-clock coverage of the queen has meant the plan has barely been mentioned since. Parliament has been suspended until after the queen’s state funeral on Sept. 19. Lawmakers are scheduled to go into recess again on Sept. 22 for their parties’ conferences, putting politics on hold even longer.Fears about how the government plans to finance the aid package — with huge increased borrowing rather than by imposing a windfall profits tax on oil and gas companies — are wearing on the bond market and the pound, which has recently plumbed its lowest levels against the dollar since 1985.“It is a problem that there has effectively been no proper public scrutiny or political debate around a spending package of 5 to 6 percent of G.D.P.,” said Jonathan Portes, a professor of economics and public policy at King’s College London.Shoppers at a supermarket in London last month, when inflation rose to 10.1 percent.Frank Augstein/Associated Press“In principle, that could be remedied after the funeral,” he said. “But I do worry a bit that the government will get used to the lack of scrutiny of their proposals and will attempt to carry on the same vein.”A lack of scrutiny can provide a temporary respite, but over the long term it can be lethal: Jill Rutter, a former official in the Treasury, recalled that the government published details of a new poll tax in January 1986, hours before the Challenger space shuttle exploded in the United States. It was utterly lost in the news of that disaster, and when Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher later imposed the tax, it proved so unpopular that it triggered her downfall.There is no question that Ms. Truss’s role in the 10 days of national mourning will give her rare visibility for a new leader. She has become a dignified daily fixture on television, shaking hands with the king at an audience in Buckingham Palace, walking out of Westminster Hall after his address to Parliament on Monday and speaking at Downing Street about the dawn of a new Carolean age.She will get a big introduction on the global stage when dozens, or even hundreds, of leaders converge on London for the funeral, putting her at the center of one of the greatest such gatherings since the funeral of John F. Kennedy.Like Ms. Truss, Mr. Blair was quite new in the job when Princess Diana was killed in a car crash in Paris. His description of her as the “people’s princess” become one of the most memorable phrases of his decade in office. He also reaped credit for nudging a reticent queen into a more public display of sorrow over Diana’s death.How the World Reacted to the Queen’s DeathQueen Elizabeth II’s death elicited an array of reactions around the globe, from heartfelt tributes to anti-monarchist sentiment.In Britain: As Britons come to terms with the loss of the woman who embodied the country for 70 years, many are unsure of their nation’s identity and role in the world.In the U.S.: In few places outside Britain was the outpouring of grief so striking as in the faraway former British colony, which she never ruled and rarely visited.In Scotland: At a time of renewed mobilization for Scottish independence, respect for the queen could temporarily dampen the heated debate.In the Commonwealth: For nations with British colonial histories, the queen’s death is rekindling discussions about a more independent future.In Africa: Though the queen was revered by many on the continent, her death reignited conversations about the brutality the monarchy meted out there.But this time, the royal family does not seem to need public-relations advice. Prince William, Prince Harry, and their spouses appeared in a carefully managed walk outside Windsor Castle on Saturday. A day earlier, Charles stepped out of his vintage Rolls-Royce at Buckingham Palace to shake hands with well-wishers.The Prince and Princess of Wales, and the Duke and Duchess of Sussex paying their respects on Saturday to Queen Elizabeth outside Windsor Castle.Mary Turner for The New York Times“You could argue it helps her to be visible at these events,” Mr. Campbell said, “but in all honesty, the public are very focused on the royals and not the politicians.”For Ms. Truss, experts agree, the success of her economic policy will matter far more in the long run than her performance over the next week.“It’s almost impossible to predict the impact of the queen’s passing and the long period of mourning on Truss’s political fortunes, mainly because we’ve got little to compare it with,” said Timothy Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary, University of London.The last leader in this position was Winston Churchill, who was in office when Elizabeth’s father, George VI, died in 1952 and played the role of mentor to the young queen in their weekly meetings. But as Professor Bale noted, “He was already firmly entrenched in the public mind as an iconic national hero.”Based on the limited polling data available from that period, he said, the government’s approval ratings did not rise in the transition from George to Elizabeth.“Those assuming there might be some kind of rally round the flag effect for Truss and the Tories might need to think again,” Professor Bale said.Eshe Nelson More