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    The Midterms Aren’t the Only Thing That’s Looming

    Gail Collins: Bret, let me throw you what I suspect is a softball. What did you think of Joe Biden’s move to pardon people with federal marijuana convictions?Bret Stephens: Some of my conservative friends think it sends a soft-on-crime message, but I’m OK with it. It doesn’t actually let anyone out of jail, since nobody is in federal prison today solely for simple possession of weed. But it lifts a burden on roughly 6,500 people whose employment and housing chances are harmed by their past convictions.I just wish Biden’s admirable softheartedness on this score were matched by some greater hardheadedness when it comes to dealing with other forms of lawbreaking. Like the migrant crisis about which Eric Adams just declared a state of emergency ….Gail: If your answer is a national rally against certain governors from Florida and Texas who enjoy putting confused and frightened people on planes and buses and shipping them north, I’m in.Bret: Er …Gail: But I have a feeling you’re thinking of something a little more border-focused. Let’s have at it. You first. And while we’re at it, let’s please discuss what to do about the Dreamers who were brought here as children, grew up in America, and are now living here as law-abiding adults in the only country they’ve ever really known.The Dreamers need a clear road to citizenship, but there’ve been a bunch of court cases that have complicated things. A recent ruling shut out anybody who hasn’t already made an application and unless Congress acts to create a formal program, their fate is going to depend on the Supreme Court, God help them.Bret: I’m in favor of full citizenship, immediately, for all Dreamers.Gail: Bracing for the “But … ”Bret: But I’m completely against the insanity of what we’ve got now, which is a vice president claiming we have a “secure border” when we obviously don’t, and a White House that won’t recognize the scale of the crisis at the very moment when much of Latin America is in a state of collapse, and a creaking system that didn’t work well in the first place is now on the verge of collapse. I know too many Republicans have shamefully rejected the idea that we are a nation of immigrants, but too many Democrats seem to be rejecting that idea that we are also a nation of laws.Gail: The current system is definitely a mess and my two immediate proposals are 1) Dramatically beef up American presence at the border for everything from patrol officers to health care workers. 2) Read our colleague Julie Turkewitz’s great in-person reporting on one group of Venezuelans making the trek.Bret: Agree on both points, and I won’t rehash my arguments for a border wall.Gail: Darned. I love to fight with you about that. Go on …Bret: I would just suggest our more liberal readers read another superb report by The Times’s Jennifer Medina from Brownsville, Texas, which was published in February. I can’t do it justice with a summary, so let me quote: “Democrats are destroying a Latino culture built around God, family and patriotism, dozens of Hispanic voters and candidates in South Texas said in interviews. The Trump-era anti-immigrant rhetoric of being tough on the border and building the wall has not repelled these voters from the Republican Party or struck them as anti-Hispanic bigotry. Instead, it has drawn them in.”Gail: The country needs to be reminded we’re talking about people whose goals and needs are the same as the venerable immigrants who’ve come here throughout our history. And that we’re desperately in need of more immigrants to shore up an aging population.Bret: Totally. Let’s just not give the far-right a winning issue in the process.Gail: In an ideal world — or even a rational one — Congress would put together a smart, humane system for quickly processing people who show up at the border, but that’s never going to happen as long as one party insists on making everything about the border a nasty, frequently racist election issue.Bret: First, Democrats have to show they’re serious about border security. But, speaking about unseriousness, can we talk about Herschel Walker?Gail: I know I’m acknowledging a character defect but I love to talk about Herschel Walker.Bret: He’s so absolutely awful, so completely catastrophic, so epically embarrassing, so hilariously hypocritical, so incandescently idiotic, so stratospherically scandalous, so volcanically vomitous, that he may actually serve a purpose.Gail: Go on, go on!Bret: Walker’s revelatory candidacy is to today’s G.O.P. what the odor of rancid chicken is to the chicken itself: It warns you to steer clear. This should have been the Republican’s race to lose, simply because Georgia still elects conservatives, it’s a midterm election, the Republican governor is probably going to be re-elected, and there’s an unpopular Democratic incumbent in the White House. Instead, Walker’s candidacy looks like a cross between the Atlanta Falcons in the 2017 Super Bowl, squandering a 28-3 lead, and Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, minus the finesse.Ugh. Now watch him win.Gail: Well, he’d be voting with your side in the Senate. That wouldn’t make it worth something?Bret: My side? Noooooooooo. As the old Polish proverb has it: “Not my circus, not my monkeys.” It’s really a shame because the country could really use a serious conservative party right now. The economy looks iffy, inflation is raging, gas prices are going back up, and the president is telling people that we’re as close to Armageddon as we’ve been since the Cuban missile crisis.Speaking of which, did you find Biden’s Cuban missile riff at a Democratic fund-raiser reassuring because he sounds experienced, or terrifying because he would speak so casually about it?Gail: Bret, you know I try to avoid foreign affairs, but we’re basically talking about Biden showing how very seriously he takes the idea of Russia messing, even in the supposedly most controlled way, with nuclear weapons in his fight with Ukraine.I’m sorta OK with our president being very, very, very clear that Putin can’t be thinking along this line. Putin’s obviously in a corner when it comes to Ukraine, and I’m sure he’s feeling tempted to do something desperate.You?Bret: If I had to place a few bets, the first would be that Putin is very likely to use tactical nuclear weapons, especially if his army starts to crumble around the southern city of Kherson. The second bet is that using the weapons will not change the dynamic on the battlefield. Instead, it will make things worse for Putin as the West responds by seizing Russia’s foreign reserves, providing Ukraine with much more powerful weaponry, even deploying NATO warplanes to patrol Ukrainian air space. My third bet is that this will lead to a palace coup in Moscow. And my fourth is that Putin will be replaced by someone even worse, like the awful spymaster Nikolai Patrushev.All that said, I’d also bet that Democrats will hold the Senate, 50-50. What’s your money on?Gail: Ditto, entirely because the Republicans have so many bad candidates. It ought to be their time — the public is twitchy because of inflation, etc.Bret: And every bad candidate was handpicked and promoted by you-know-who.Gail: Boy, there are a lot of awful nominees there. Not just our friend Herschel. In New Hampshire, the Republican nominee, Don Bolduc, and Arizona’s Blake Masters are both nightmares for their party.You know one interesting thing, though, Bret — Bolduc and Masters both ran for the nomination with the Trumpian claim that Biden didn’t really win the presidency. And now they’re backpedaling like crazy.Bret: Backpedaling from crazy, too.Gail: Is this a sign of national sanity on the rise, or something less … inspiring?Bret: Less inspiring, I’d say. It really points to the deep cynicism at work in today’s G.O.P. Our new colleague, Carlos Lozada, really put his finger on it a few weeks ago in his wonderful debut column. He called it “the joke” — that is, the Trumpian notion that you can tell lie after lie in politics because you’ve adopted the quasi-comical, quasi-nihilistic premise that truth is whatever you can get away with.Gail: Carlos is wonderful. His message is so right. And important. Pardon me while I pour a drink.Bret: And that’s the same premise that Vladimir Putin has adopted, along with so many other dictators in history. Which is why I was so pleased to see a human rights proponent in Belarus and human rights organizations in Ukraine and Russia win the Nobel Peace Prize last week. The great Czech writer Milan Kundera once wrote that “the struggle of man against power is the struggle of memory against forgetting.”I think that struggle is as much at stake in the battles in Ukraine as it is in the fight over the meaning of Jan. 6.Gail: On the plus side, we have tons of candidates, reform groups and reporters on our side, trying to keep memory alive.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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    Your Thursday Briefing: U.S. Believes Ukrainians Were Behind a Killing in Russia

    Plus arming Taiwan to deter China and OPEC cuts oil production.Daria Dugina’s memorial service was held in Moscow in August.Kirill Kudryavtsev/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesU.S. believes Ukrainians authorized an assassination in Russia U.S. intelligence agencies believe that parts of the Ukrainian government signed off on the car bomb attack near Moscow in August that killed Daria Dugina, the daughter of a prominent Russian nationalist.An assessment about Ukrainian complicity was shared within the U.S. government last week and has not been previously reported. Specifics about the operation remained scant: American officials did not disclose which elements of the Ukrainian government were believed to have authorized the mission, who carried out the attack or whether President Volodymyr Zelensky had cleared it.Ukraine has denied involvement in the assassination. Senior Ukrainian officials repeated those denials when asked about the American intelligence assessment. American officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said that the U.S. did not provide intelligence or otherwise assist in the attack. They added that the American government would have opposed the assassination if it had been consulted, and that Ukraine was admonished for it.Background: Some American officials suspect that Dugina’s father, Aleksandr Dugin, a Russian ultranationalist, was the actual target of the operation, and that the operatives who carried it out believed he would be in the vehicle with his daughter.Context: Ukraine’s security services have demonstrated their ability to attack collaborators on Russian-controlled territory in Ukraine. But killing Dugina would be one of the boldest operations to date and could provoke Moscow to carry out retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian officials, for little direct military gain.The U.S. has approved several weapons packages for Taiwan, which conducted military exercises in July.Lam Yik Fei for The New York TimesThe U.S. aims to arm TaiwanCurrent and former American officials said that the U.S. was intensifying efforts to build a giant stockpile of weapons in Taiwan, turning it into a “porcupine” bristling with armaments to discourage aggression from mainland China.Chinese naval and air force exercises in August showed that China would probably blockade Taiwan before attempting an invasion, and the democratically governed island would have to hold its own until the U.S. or other nations intervened, if they decided to. The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsWith the primaries over, both parties are shifting their focus to the general election on Nov. 8.Standing by Herschel Walker: After a report that the G.O.P. Senate candidate in Georgia paid for a girlfriend’s abortion in 2009, Republicans rallied behind him, fearing that a break with the former football star could hurt the party’s chances to take the Senate.Democrats’ Closing Argument: Buoyed by polls that show the end of Roe v. Wade has moved independent voters their way, vulnerable House Democrats have reoriented their campaigns around abortion rights in the final weeks before the election.G.O.P. Senate Gains: After signs emerged that Republicans were making gains in the race for the Senate, the polling shift is now clear, writes Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst.Trouble for Nevada Democrats: The state has long been vital to the party’s hold on the West. Now, Democrats are facing potential losses up and down the ballot.Smaller, maneuverable weapons systems could be critical to Taiwan’s endurance, and U.S. officials are quietly pushing Taiwanese officials to order more of them. Many of the weapons that could bolster Taiwan’s defenses are going to Ukraine, and arms makers are reluctant to set up new production lines without long-term orders.Background: China has long sought to control Taiwan, which it considers part of its territory, and the U.S. has worked to help the island without enraging Beijing. President Biden said last month that the U.S. was “not encouraging” Taiwan’s independence, but he has also said that the U.S. would defend the island if China attacks.Context: The Biden administration announced last month that it had approved a $1.1 billion weapons sale to Taiwan, and officials are discussing how to streamline the sale-and-delivery process. Getting weaponry through a Chinese blockade could risk setting off a confrontation between China and the U.S.The European Union hopes to curb the revenue that Russia earns from oil sales.Gianni Cipriano for The New York TimesOPEC and Russia agree to cut oil productionThe oil industry cartel and its allies, including Russia, approved a drop in oil production of two million barrels a day to shore up prices.The production drop will most likely make Russia’s oil even more valuable on the world market, and complicates Western plans to impose a price cap on Russian oil, an important measure to drain funding for President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine.The decision came after Biden administration officials spent more than a week trying to minimize production cuts by oil-producing countries in the Middle East.Analysis: The cut of two million barrels a day represents about 2 percent of global oil production during a time of reduced global demand. Stock prices dropped and the national average price of gasoline in the U.S. rose for the 15th consecutive day, to $3.83 a gallon.THE LATEST NEWSAsiaMonsoon rainfall in South Asia has become erratic and extreme. Jeremy White/The New York TimesSouth Asia’s monsoon is becoming stronger and less predictable because of climate change. Our interactive shows the places most at risk.Accusations of fraud came shortly after 433 gamblers won a lottery drawing in the PhilippinesReuters reports that Bangladesh is investigating an outage that cut power to about three quarters of the country for 10 hours.Saudi Arabia will host the Asian Winter Games in 2029 at what is planned to be a year-round ski resort there, according to The Associated Press.World NewsPresident Vladimir Putin celebrated Russia’s illegal annexation of four Ukrainian provinces at a rally in Moscow.Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesPresident Vladimir Putin of Russia signed legislation supposedly annexing four regions of Ukraine as tens of thousands of Russian men fled conscription for countries like Kyrgyzstan.Liz Truss, Britain’s prime minister, told her divided Conservative Party that she was determined to challenge economic orthodoxy.An Iranian American who was held captive in Iran for seven years was released for urgent medical surgery.Uruguay could be a model for sustainable living.American PoliticsCivil War references have become increasingly commonplace on the right.Donald Trump asked the Supreme Court to intervene in litigation over sensitive documents the F.B.I. seized from his Florida estate.Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s relationship with Representative Kevin McCarthy, the House minority leader, has grown more toxic as the midterm elections draw nearer.What Else Is HappeningThe family of Halyna Hutchins, the cinematographer whom Alec Baldwin fatally shot on a movie set, reached a settlement with Baldwin and other people involved.Elon Musk’s takeover of Twitter will be tumultuous, if it happens.After hitting his 62nd home run, the Yankees slugger Aaron Judge acknowledged the pressure he faced to break Roger Maris’s American League home run record.A Morning ReadKoalas were declared an endangered species this year.Matthew Abbott for The New York TimesAustralia announced a plan to prevent any more of its plant and animal species from going extinct, an ambitious goal for a country that has lost species at one of the highest rates in the world. Scientists and conservationists welcomed the 10-year plan, which commits to preserving 30 percent of Australia’s landmass and specifies protecting animals like the growling grass frog, but they worried that it would still prove to be insufficient.ARTS AND IDEAS The idiotic genius of “Beavis and Butt-Head”Critics have largely focused on animated shows like “The Simpsons” while sidelining “Beavis and Butt-Head,” Mike Judge’s 1990s cartoon about two teenage numbskulls who mock music videos. But overlooking the popular MTV program is a mistake, writes Jason Zinoman, The Times’s new critic at large.“Can I explain why Beavis pulling his T-shirt over his blond bouffant and declaring himself the Great Cornholio made me laugh louder than anything Bart Simpson has ever done?” Zinoman writes. “No, but it’s true. Sometimes life (and thus comedy) is stupid.”“Beavis and Butt-Head” stuck to plots that Zinoman called “pointedly indifferent.” The result was humor that felt effortless, unaffected and, to many, moronic — but still hilarious. But the heart of the show was them watching and commenting on music videos. For Zinoman, then a budding critic, watching the program was “essentially watching the performance of criticism.”Paramount+ has made a major investment in the show, putting old seasons online and rolling out a new movie and a reboot. The new show maintains the imbecility of the original, though some episodes, alas, have more developed plots.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookArmando Rafael for The New York TimesThis pulled pork recipe is saucy, satisfying and easy enough to pull off for dinner whenever you want.What to Watch“The Octonauts” is one of the first TV shows to teach very young children about climate change.What to Listen ToHere are five minutes that will make you love bebop.Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: Shakespeare play with the line “To thine own self be true.” (6 letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.Thank you for reading today’s briefing. Have a great day. — DanP.S. Livia Albeck-Ripka will become a reporter for The Times’s Express team.The latest episode of “The Daily” is on flooding in Pakistan.You can reach Dan and the team at briefing@nytimes.com. More

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    Your Tuesday Briefing: Indonesia Investigates Its Soccer Tragedy

    Plus Brazil’s elections move to a runoff and Ukraine surges forward in the Donbas.Relatives mourn victims killed at a soccer match in Malang, Indonesia.Mast Irham/EPA, via ShutterstockAnger mounts in IndonesiaAn independent commission in Indonesia will investigate the deaths of at least 125 people, including 33 children, who were killed at a soccer game on Saturday. After soccer fans at a stadium in Malang rushed onto the field following a 3-2 home-game defeat, the police fired tear gas into the stands. Panic ensued.The authorities have interviewed 18 officers who fired tear gas. Military personnel who were seen hitting fans would face punishment, according to the national police chief. The police chief in Malang was among nine local officers suspended yesterday.The deadly clash has inspired widespread accusations that the police helped turn minor unrest into one of the deadliest stadium catastrophes in history. Indonesia said that officers suspected of wrongful violence would face criminal charges.New details: Many people were trampled as they rushed for the exits, only two of which were open, according to a human rights official. Some victims died in the stadium’s changing rooms, where players tried to help them.Analysis: Members of Indonesia’s police system are almost never held accountable for their actions. Under the government of President Joko Widodo, officers have used brute force to suppress crowds, accepted bribes and largely operated with impunity.Background: At the stadium in Malang, tear gas fired by the police had also turned deadly in 2018.Brazilians use soccer jerseys as a show of support for Jair Bolsonaro, the president.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesA runoff in BrazilBrazil’s national elections went to a runoff after Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right president, outperformed in the polls. He received 43.23 percent of the vote; his opponent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a former leftist president, received 48.4 percent.The two political titans will face off again on Oct. 30, for what is widely regarded as the most important vote in decades for the largest nation in Latin America. Over the next four weeks, Bolsonaro will have to make up ground on Lula.The election is considered across the world as a major test for democracy. For months, Bolsonaro has criticized, without any evidence, electronic voting machines as rife with fraud, suggesting that the only way he would lose is if the election were rigged.The State of the WarAnnexation Push: After Moscow’s proxies conducted a series of sham referendums in the Ukrainian regions of Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Luhansk and Donetsk, President Vladimir V. Putin declared the four territories to be part of Russia. Western leaders, including President Biden in the United States, denounced the annexation as illegal.Retreat From Key City: Russian forces withdrew from the strategically important city of Lyman, in Donetsk Province, on Oct. 1. The retreat was a significant setback for Moscow, coming just a day after Mr. Putin declared the region to be Russian territory.Putin’s Nuclear Threats: For the first time since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, top Russian leaders are making explicit nuclear threats and officials in Washington are gaming out scenarios should Mr. Putin decide to use a tactical nuclear weapon.Russia’s Draft: The Kremlin has acknowledged that its new military draft is rife with problems, as protests have erupted across Russia, recruitment centers have been attacked and thousands of men have left the country.Issues: Brazil faces environmental threats, rising hunger, a sputtering economy and a deeply polarized population. The two candidates radically differ in their approaches to each issue.Region: A victory by Lula would extend a string of left-wing victories across Latin America, fueled by anti-incumbent backlash. Brazil could become the sixth of the region’s seven largest countries to elect a leftist leader since 2018.After capturing Lyman over the weekend, Ukrainian forces moved toward new positions.Nicole Tung for The New York TimesUkraine advances in the DonbasRussian forces in Ukraine were on the run across the frontline yesterday, as the Ukrainian military pressed toward the eastern Donbas region and made gains in the south.Over the weekend, Ukrainian forces captured Lyman, in the Donetsk region, before word of Vladimir Putin’s illegal annexation of the territory a day earlier could even reach its residents.With Russian troops in disarray on the battlefield, the Kremlin fared no better. It acknowledged that it does not even know the boundaries of two regions it recently declared to be part of Russia — a move that Kyiv and Western leaders said was illegal.“In terms of the borders, we’re going to continue to consult with the population of these regions,” Putin’s spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, told reporters yesterday.Russia also continued to struggle with its military draft. Half of the several thousand residents who had been drafted in the far eastern region of Khabarovsk were returned home. The region’s governor, Mikhail Degtyarev, said they “did not meet the criteria for military service.”Background: Since Putin announced a “partial mobilization” last month, protests have erupted across Russia, recruitment centers have been attacked and thousands of men have fled the country.In other updates:Denmark said that the Nord Stream pipelines have stopped leaking. The cause remains unknown, but political leaders in Europe and the U.S. have speculated it was an act of sabotage by Russia.THE LATEST NEWSAsia PacificBrittany Higgins was 26 when she accused a colleague, Bruce Lehrmann, of rape.Jamila Toderas/Getty ImagesBrittany Higgins, a former employee of Australia’s government, said that a colleague raped her in the country’s Parliament in 2019. His trial begins today.The U.S. is preparing to announce new measures to try to cut China’s access to advanced semiconductor technology.Heavy rains are worsening floods in Thailand, The Associated Press reports.The Associated Press found that as many as 52 people died in a suicide bombing last week in Kabul, more than twice the Taliban’s official count of 25.World NewsThe last Supreme Court term ended with a bombshell decision that eliminated the right to abortion.T.J. Kirkpatrick for The New York TimesIn the U.S., a new Supreme Court term began yesterday. The six-justice conservative supermajority is expected to continue steering the court right on issues including affirmative action and gay rights.Liz Truss, Britain’s prime minister, reversed plans to cut tax rates on high earners, after her proposal sent the British pound into a tailspin.Oil prices jumped yesterday after news that OPEC Plus may cut production. The move would reverse increases that had pushed prices down.What Else Is HappeningSvante Pääbo, a Swedish geneticist, won the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine for sequencing the Neanderthal genome.Sacheen Littlefeather, the Apache activist and actress who declined Marlon Brando’s Academy Award on his behalf in 1973, has died at 75.Kim Kardashian will pay $1.26 million as part of a settlement for not disclosing that she had been paid to promote a crypto token.A Morning ReadFor Kana Komatsubara, 26, a nail stylist, a tiny apartment offered a gateway to long-deferred independence from her parents.Noriko Hayashi for The New York TimesSome young people in Japan are choosing to live in teeny tiny apartments. They’re stylish and located in trendy neighborhoods near subway stations, perfect for those who work long hours and are rarely at home.“I wouldn’t live anywhere else,” said Yugo Kinoshita, 19, who uses a lint roller to clean his floor.Lives lived: Antonio Inoki, a Japanese wrestler who faced Muhammad Ali in an anticlimactic stunt match in 1976, later became an unlikely diplomat. He died at 79.ARTS AND IDEASA rabbi for allRabbi Delphine Horvilleur is one of only five female rabbis in all of France. And she has a particular preoccupation with death — one she attributes to officiating at least two funerals a week and being a grandchild of Holocaust survivors.In 2020, when the coronavirus forced Paris to shut down, she found herself conducting funerals over Zoom, while her two youngest children watched cartoons in the next room. With Passover under lockdown, she decided to deliver weekly talks about Jewish texts. Her reflections on the Talmud, Jewish mysticism and death have since reached well beyond her congregation of 1,200 in the French capital, drawing thousands of Jews, Muslims, Christians, believers and nonbelievers.“She is my rabbi,” said Edith Gillet, 49, a French atheist with a Catholic grandmother and no plans to convert. “I got hooked on her because she’s so inspirational in such dark times,” Gillet, who watches Rabbi Horvilleur from her home in California, said. “I’m drawn more to her philosophy than to any notion of God.”PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookArmando Rafael for The New York TimesMake Yossy Arefi’s peanut-butter chocolate-chip cookies in just 30 minutes.What to WatchThe British filmmaker Peter Strickland crafts strange, unconventional cinematic universes. His latest, “Flux Gourmet,” reveals his affinity with sound in new ways.RomanceDating with chronic illness involves unique challenges.Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: Thai currency (four letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you next time. — Jessica and AmeliaP.S. The Times won five Emmys, and three Gerald Loeb Awards for business journalism.The latest episode of “The Daily” is on Latino voters in the U.S.You can reach Jessica, Amelia and the team at briefing@nytimes.com. More

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    Your Monday Briefing: Indonesia’s Stadium Tragedy

    Plus Brazil votes in national elections and China wrestles with Covid fatigue.Soccer fans carried an injured man away from the stadium.Yudha Prabowo/Associated PressAn Indonesian stadium tragedyAt least 125 people died when soccer fans rushed the field after a professional soccer match in Malang, Indonesia, on Saturday. Many were trampled.The police fired tear gas into the tightly packed crowds, leading to a stampede. Survivors said that the gas was fired indiscriminately into the stands, forcing the overcapacity crowd to rush for the exits. Many are angry at the police response, which observers said had made the situation worse.“If there wasn’t any tear gas shot into the stands, there would have not been any casualties,” one man said, adding that people had “panicked” and rushed to the field to save themselves. When he tries to sleep, he said, he still hears people screaming.Reaction: Rights organizations condemned the use of tear gas, which is prohibited by FIFA, soccer’s global governing body. One policing expert said that using tear gas, which is designed to disperse crowds, in secure areas where people have nowhere to go is “incredibly, incredibly dangerous.”Analysis: The combination of large crowds and aggressive policing can prove disastrous, writes Rory Smith, my colleague who covers soccer, in an analysis. When tragedies occur, he writes, “they tend to be the consequence not of fan violence but of failures of policing, security and crowd management.”Background: Soccer violence has long been a problem for Indonesia, where violent rivalries between major teams are common. Worldwide, Saturday’s match was among the deadliest episodes in the history of the sport. After a decade of overlapping crises, Brazilians lined up to cast votes yesterday. Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesBrazil votes in national electionsBrazilians cast votes yesterday in the country’s most consequential election in decades. Here are live updates.Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a former leftist president once imprisoned amid a corruption scandal, is seeking to oust Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right populist president who has questioned the election’s integrity and has long trailed in the polls. (It’s basically a two-man race, although nine other people are on the ballot.) The State of the WarAnnexation Push: After Moscow’s proxies conducted a series of sham referendums in the Ukrainian regions of Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Luhansk and Donetsk, President Vladimir V. Putin declared the four territories to be part of Russia. Western leaders, including President Biden in the United States, denounced the annexation as illegal.Retreat From Key City: Russian forces withdrew from the strategically important city of Lyman, in Donetsk Province, on Oct. 1. The retreat was a significant setback for Moscow, coming just a day after Mr. Putin declared the region to be Russian territory.U.S. Military Aid: The Pentagon seems to be preparing to overhaul how the United States and its allies train and equip the Ukrainian military, reflecting what officials say is the Biden administration’s long-term commitment to supporting Ukraine in the war.Russia’s Draft: The Kremlin has acknowledged that its new military draft is rife with problems, as protests have erupted across Russia, recruitment centers have been attacked and thousands of men have left the country.The next president will face an economic crisis, surging Amazon deforestation and lingering questions over the health of one of the world’s biggest democracies. An alarming question now hangs over the vote: Will Bolsonaro accept the results?Context: Bolsonaro has been casting doubt on the security of Brazil’s electronic voting system for months. On the eve of the election, his party did so again. He has, in effect, said that the only way he would lose is if the election were stolen from him.Climate: The future of the Amazon rainforest may be at stake. Deforestation of the world’s largest rainforest has hit 15-year highs under Bolsonaro, who has weakened environmental protections and wants the rainforest opened up to mining, ranching and agriculture.Pakistani farmers tried to salvage what is left from a cotton field.Kiana Hayeri for The New York TimesPakistan’s floods worsen debtsPakistan’s recent, record-shattering floods have submerged its fields and its small farmers deeper into debt with their landlords.Many are in sharecropping arrangements and already owed hundreds or thousands of dollars. Landlords offer farmers loans to buy seeds and fertilizer each planting season. In exchange, farmers cultivate their fields and earn a small cut of the harvest, a portion of which goes toward repaying the loan.Now, their summer harvests are in ruins. Unless the water recedes, they will not be able to plant the wheat they harvest each spring. Even if they can, the land is certain to produce less after being damaged by the floodwaters.Details: One 14-year-old recently waded through waist-deep water filled with snakes to pick cotton. “It was our only source of livelihood,” she said. In the hardest-hit regions, where the floods drowned villages, authorities warn that the waters may not fully recede for months.Analysis: As extreme weather events become increasingly common, the cycle is worsening. Pakistan’s floods were especially cataclysmic because of a combination of heavy glacier melt and record monsoon rains, which scientists say were both intensified by climate change.THE LATEST NEWSAsia PacificLiu Jingyao filed a civil suit against Richard Liu. Lawyers said the parties had agreed to “set aside their differences” in order to avoid further pain and suffering. Caroline Yang for The New York TimesRichard Liu, a Chinese billionaire, reached a settlement with Liu Jingyao, a former University of Minnesota student who had accused him of rape. The case has been seen as a landmark in China’s struggling #MeToo movement.North Korea launched two ballistic missiles into the ocean on Saturday, the country’s fourth test since Sunday of last week.Thailand’s Constitutional Court ruled on Friday that Prayuth Chan-ocha, the prime minister who took control in a 2014 coup, can stay in power. The decision is expected to revive the pro-democracy protests that rocked Bangkok in 2020.A suicide attack in Kabul on Friday killed at least 19 people, mostly young female students. The U.S. and 14 Pacific Island nations signed a broad partnership agreement last week designed to counter China.The War in UkraineHere are live updates.Russian forces retreated from Lyman, a key Ukrainian city, one day after Vladimir Putin illegally declared control of the Donbas region. The loss further imperils the Kremlin’s grip on Donbas.Pope Francis appealed yesterday to Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, to end the war.Ukraine applied to join NATO. Yesterday, nine European leaders expressed support for the bid, which is likely to face hurdles.Each day, about 10,000 Russian men are trying to cross into Georgia to flee draft orders. “I do not support the war, and I do not want to go kill Ukrainians,” one said.World NewsDamage from Hurricane Ian in Florida.Hilary Swift for The New York TimesThe death toll in Florida from Hurricane Ian grew to about 80. Burkina Faso has weathered its second coup in ten months. Yesterday, the army officer who seized power in January conceded that he too had been ousted by mutinying soldiers.Uganda is racing to control a deadly Ebola outbreak.Venezuela and Iran released American prisoners over the weekend.What Else Is HappeningIran’s long economic decline is fueling a widespread protest movement, which continues despite heavy crackdowns.Nick Kyrgios, the Australian tennis star, is set to face a charge of assaulting a former girlfriend.“Saturday Night Live” kicked off its new season. Eight veteran cast members have left the show this year.A Morning ReadA line at a Covid testing site in Beijing in June.Kevin Frayer/Getty ImagesMy colleague Vivian Wang, a Times correspondent in China, described the grinding reality of life under Covid. People schedule lunch breaks around completing mandatory tests and buy second freezers to stock up on groceries for future lockdowns.“The disruptive becomes typical; the once-unimaginable, reality,” she writes.ARTS AND IDEASAsia beckons againSeveral Asian destinations are loosening their Covid restrictions on international travel. Our Travel desk looked at how four destinations were preparing for the return of tourism.Kyoto, one of Japan’s most-visited cities, wants to bring back tourists but avoid Instagram-driven excesses. (“Kyoto isn’t a tourist city, it’s a city that values tourism,” the mayor said.) Koh Tao, a Thai island, is trying to balance tourism with an environmental focus. On the edge of Delhi, a contemporary art scene and a burgeoning cosmopolitan class are taking shape. And rural South Korea offers serene, unhurried nature.The Travel desk also asked five photographers who live in Asia to share their favorite foods from India, Thailand, Singapore, Japan and South Korea. And they offer advice on budget travel, translation apps and some great new hotels.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookChris Simpson for The New York TimesMini bibingkas — Filipino coconut cakes — are fluffy and perfect for sharing, Ligaya Mishan writes.What to ReadRead your way through Rome.What to WatchIn “Bros,” a gay romantic comedy, a man who has sworn off relationships finds himself falling in love.Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: In the know (five letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you next time. — AmeliaP.S. I am now officially the lead writer of this newsletter! If you have feedback or suggestions, I’d welcome them. Please write to me: amelia.nierenberg@nytimes.com.The latest episode of “The Daily” is on Hurricane Ian.You can reach Amelia and the team at briefing@nytimes.com. More

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    Italy’s Hard-Right Lurch Raises New Concerns in Washington

    The Biden administration pledged to work with the country’s new leaders despite worries. Several Republicans hailed the Italian election results.WASHINGTON — The Biden administration publicly reacted with calm on Monday to Italy’s election of a far-right governing coalition, pledging to work with the country’s incoming leaders despite concern about their party’s fascist roots.But the latest rightward lurch of a European country — two weeks after a far-right party performed startlingly well in Sweden’s elections — is raising concerns in Washington about the continent’s combustible populism and what it could mean for some of President Biden’s foreign policy goals, including confronting Russia and defending democracy against authoritarianism.It has also underscored divisions within the United States, as members of the Trump wing of the Republican Party embraced the rise of a nationalist whose party has roots in Mussolini-era fascism.In the near term, the political success of Giorgia Meloni and her nationalist Brothers of Italy party, which leaves her poised to become the country’s next prime minister, is unlikely to rupture relations between Washington and Rome. Nor should it hobble the U.S.-led effort to unify Europe in defense of Ukraine against Russian conquest. Although Ms. Meloni has espoused radical nationalist views, and key members of her coalition openly oppose the European Union and call for friendlier relations with Moscow, as a candidate she expressed support for NATO and the defense of Ukraine.Writing on Twitter on Monday, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken set a tone of comity, saying that the Biden administration was “eager to work with Italy’s government on our shared goals: supporting a free and independent Ukraine, respecting human rights, and building a sustainable economic future.”“Italy is a vital ally, strong democracy, and valued partner,” he added.Mr. Blinken’s comments appeared to reflect an initial belief that officials in the Biden administration can do strategic business with Ms. Meloni, even if many of her core values, including skepticism of gay rights and “gender ideology,” clash with their own.The Biden administration also understands that even an anti-establishment firebrand like Ms. Meloni will need financial support from the European Union to survive in office — a tall order if she wages political fights with Washington and Brussels. And with Italian public opinion slanted against Russia after its invasion of Ukraine, Ms. Meloni would be hard-pressed to soften Italy’s line toward Moscow or seek to block the E.U.’s consensus-based support for Kyiv, analysts said.“From a foreign policy perspective, I do not expect a U-turn,” said Giovanna De Maio, a visiting fellow at George Washington University who studies trans-Atlantic relations. “It will be a moderate approach, at least for now,” she added.In an unsettling sign for the administration and centrist European leaders alike, however, several prominent Republicans hailed Ms. Meloni’s showing — a reminder of the growing kinship between European nationalists and the Trump wing of the Republican Party, who share a general philosophy of traditional social values, support for restricted immigration and deep skepticism of multilateral institutions.“This month, Sweden voted for a right-wing government,” Representative Lauren Boebert, Republican of Colorado, wrote on Twitter. “Now, Italy voted for a strong right-wing government. The entire world is beginning to understand that the Woke Left does nothing but destroy. Nov 8 is coming soon & the USA will fix our House and Senate! Let freedom reign!”.css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.Mike Pompeo, President Donald J. Trump’s secretary of state, who is of Italian heritage, also tweeted his congratulations. “Italy deserves and needs strong conservative leadership,” he wrote. “Buona Fortuna!”After Mr. Trump derided the European Union and clashed with longtime U.S. allies like Germany and France over foreign policy, Mr. Biden has worked to restore relations between America and Europe. That effort was accelerated by Russia’s invasion of Europe.But the shock wave from Italy is a reminder of Europe’s volatile politics and the threat they pose to the established, U.S.-backed order.The ascent of Ms. Meloni’s coalition also deals a blow to a central theme of Mr. Biden’s presidency: the effort to defend democracy and reject authoritarianism abroad. Europe’s right-wing parties have shown authoritarian tendencies in power, with conservatives in nations like Poland and Hungary cracking down on press freedom, an independent judiciary and other checks on central power.Europe’s far right may see greater opportunity in the months ahead, analysts said, as the continent stumbles toward winter amid soaring energy prices and other forms of inflation that many economists predict will produce a recession. Mr. Blinken and other administration officials have warned that winter will test Europe’s resolve on Ukraine, as analysts worry that economic pain could shift public anger away from President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and toward the continent’s establishment leaders.“In the coming months, our unity and sovereignty will be tested with pressure on energy supplies and the soaring cost of living, caused by Russia’s war,” Mr. Blinken warned during a stop in Brussels this month.Daniel Baer, the director of the Europe program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that if economic conditions grew much worse, they could “drive populist strains on established democracies the way the 2008 financial crisis did.”Mr. Biden has worked with a set of strongly pro-American, internationalist leaders in Europe’s major capitals. France and Germany, along with Britain, have largely been in sync with Mr. Biden’s agenda. Italy was governed for nearly all of the Biden presidency by Prime Minister Mario Draghi, an economist who prioritized Italy’s international integration. Mr. Draghi’s resignation this summer triggered Sunday’s election.Mr. Baer noted that hard-right candidates had fizzled in two major elections over the past year. In April, the centrist French president, Emmanuel Macron, defeated his nationalist challenger, Marine Le Pen, and the moderate Olaf Scholz emerged from Germany’s elections last fall.Since then, the far-right Sweden Democrats won the second-largest share of the country’s vote, Ms. Meloni is poised to lead Italy once a government is formed there and Spain’s Vox party continues to gather momentum.“The sighs of relief that a lot of people breathed when Scholz was elected and Le Pen lost — was that premature?” Mr. Baer asked. More

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    Europe Looks at Italy’s Giorgia Meloni With Caution and Trepidation

    Giorgia Meloni, poised to be the country’s first far-right leader since Mussolini, says she supports Ukraine and has moderated her harsh views on Europe, but there are doubts, given her partners.BRUSSELS — The victory in Italian elections of the far-right and Euroskeptic leader Giorgia Meloni, who once wanted to ditch the euro currency, sent a tremor on Monday through a European establishment worried about a new right-wing shift in Europe.European Union leaders are now watching her coalition’s comfortable victory in Italy, one of its founding members, with caution and some trepidation, despite reassurances from Ms. Meloni, who would be the first far-right nationalist to govern Italy since Mussolini, that she has moderated her views.But it is hard for them to escape a degree of dread. Even given the bloc’s successes in recent years to agree on a groundbreaking pandemic recovery fund and to confront Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, the appeal of nationalists and populists remains strong — and is spreading, a potential threat to European ideals and cohesion.Earlier this month, the far-right Sweden Democrats became the country’s second-largest party and the largest in what is expected to be a right-wing coalition.The economic impact of Covid and now of the war in Ukraine, with high national debt and rocketing inflation, has deeply damaged centrist parties all over Europe. Far-right parties have not only pushed centrist parties to the right, but have also become “normalized,” no longer ostracized, said Charles A. Kupchan, a European expert at the Council on Foreign Relations.“The direction of political momentum is changing — we had a wave of centrism before and during the pandemic, but now it feels like the political table is tilting back in the direction of the populists on the right,” he said. “And that’s a big deal.”Under the outgoing technocratic prime minister Mario Draghi, Italy played an important role in a Europe of weak leadership, both on vital economic issues and the response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But Italy has now turned away from the European mainstream.An Italy led by Ms. Meloni is likely to be constrained by European control over billions of euros in crucial funding. In the best case, diplomats and analysts say, it will not smash the European consensus, but could severely complicate policymaking.If Ms. Meloni and her coalition partners choose to side with other populist, Euroskeptic leaders inside the European Union, like Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary and Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki of Poland, she can certainly “gum up the works,” Mr. Kupchan said.For Italy to team up with “Orban and company is Brussels’ nightmare,” said Stefano Stefanini, an analyst and former Italian diplomat. “For over 10 years the E.U. has lived with the fear of being swamped by a tide of Euroskeptic populism,” he said. “Hungary is a pain, but Italy joining forces with Hungary and Poland would be a serious challenge to the mainstream E.U. and would mobilize the far right in other countries.”Hungary’s populist leader Viktor Orban last month. For Italy to team up with “Orban and company is Brussels’ nightmare,” a former Italian diplomat said.Emil Lippe for The New York TimesThe first European congratulations to her came Sunday night from Hungary. Mr. Orban’s political director, Balazs Orban, said in a Twitter message: “In these difficult times, we need more than ever friends who share a common vision and approach to Europe’s challenges.”Europe’s concerns are less about policy toward Ukraine. Ms. Meloni has said she supports NATO and Ukraine and has no great warmth for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, as her junior coalition partners, Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi, have evinced.Still, Mr. Berlusconi said last week that Mr. Putin “was pushed by the Russian population, by his party, by his ministers to invent this special operation.” The plan, he said, was for Russian troops to enter “in a week to replace Zelensky’s government with a government of decent people.”Italian popular opinion is traditionally sympathetic toward Moscow, with about a third of seats in the new Parliament going to parties with an ambiguous stance on Russia, sanctions, and military aid to Ukraine. As the war proceeds, with all its domestic economic costs, Ms. Meloni may take a less firm view than Mr. Draghi has.Mr. Kupchan expects “the balance of power in Europe will tilt more toward diplomacy and a bit less toward continuing the fight.” That is a view more popular with the populist right than with parties in the mainstream, but it has prominent adherents in Germany and France, too.Supporters of the far-right Sweden Democrats celebrating exit polls near Stockholm this month. Sweden Democrats are now the country’s second-biggest party.Stefan Jerrevang/EPA, via Shutterstock“These elections are another sign that all is not well with mainstream parties,” said Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, and spell a complicated period for the European Union.Even the victory a year ago of Olaf Scholz in Germany, a man of the center left, was ensured by the collapse of the center-right Christian Democrats, who had their worst showing in their history, while in April, France’s long-dominant center-right Republicans fell to under 5 percent of the vote.“People in Brussels are extremely anxious about Meloni becoming an E.U. prime minister,” Mr. Leonard said. “They’ve seen how disruptive Orban can be from a small country with no systemic role in the E.U. Meloni says she won’t immediately upend the consensus on Ukraine, but she could be a force for a much more virulent form of Euroskepticism in council meetings.”One or two troublemakers can do a lot of a damage to E.U. decision-making, he said, “but if it’s five or six,” it becomes very hard to obtain coherence or consensus.When the populist Five Star Movement led Italy from 2018 to early 2021, before Mr. Draghi, it created major fights inside Brussels on immigration and asylum issues. Ms. Meloni is expected to concentrate on topics like immigration, identity issues (she despises what she calls “woke ideology”), and future E.U. rules covering debt and fiscal discipline, to replace the outdated growth and stability pact.But analysts think she will pick her fights carefully, given Italy’s debt mountain — over 150 percent of gross domestic product — and the large sums that Brussels has promised Rome as part of the Covid recovery fund. For this year, the amount is 19 billion euros, or about $18.4 billion, nearly 1 percent of Italy’s G.D.P., said Mujtaba Rahman, Europe director for the Eurasia Group, with a total over the next few years of some 10.5 percent of G.D.P.“Draghi has already implemented tough reforms to satisfy Brussels, so there is no reason for her to come in and mess it up and agitate the market,” Mr. Rahman said. But for the future, there are worries that she will push for an expansionist budget, looser fiscal rules and thereby make the more frugal countries of northern Europe less willing to compromise.For Mr. Rahman, the bigger risk for Europe is the loss of influence Italy exercised under Mr. Draghi. He and President Emmanuel Macron of France, “were beginning to create an alternative axis to compete with the vacuum of leadership now in Germany, and all that will be lost,” Mr. Rahman said. Italy will go from a country that leads to one that Europe watches anxiously, he said.Italy’s outgoing Prime Minister, Mario Draghi, left, with President Emmanuel Macron of France and Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany, on their way to Ukraine in June.Pool photo by Ludovic MarinThere was a sign of that anxiety just before the election, when Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, warned that Brussels had “the tools” to deal with Italy if things went in a “difficult direction.” It was seen as a hint that the European Commission could cut funds to Italy if it were deemed to be violating the bloc’s democratic standards.Mr. Salvini, seeing an opportunity, immediately responded: “What is this, a threat? This is shameful arrogance,” and asked Ms. von der Leyen to “respect the free, democratic and sovereign vote of the Italian people” and resist “institutional bullying.”Instead, Mr. Stefanini, the former diplomat, urged Brussels to be patient and to engage with Ms. Meloni. “The new government should be judged on facts, on what it does when in power,” he said. “The real risk is that by exaggerated overreactions the E.U. makes legitimate concerns self-fulfilling prophecies.“If she’s made to feel rejected, she’ll be pushed into a corner — where she’ll find Orban and other soulmates waiting for her, and she’ll team up with them,” he continued. “But if she’s greeted as a legitimate leader, democratically elected, it will be possible for the E.U. to do business with her.”Luuk van Middelaar, a historian of the bloc, also urges caution. European leaders know two things about Italian prime ministers, he said. First, “they are not very powerful at home, and two, they tend not to last very long” — since World War II, an average of about 18 months.“So they will wait and see and not be blown away,” Mr. van Middelaar said. If she lasts longer, however, she could energize other far-right Euroskeptics in other big countries like France, he said, “and that would make a real difference.” More

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    Meloni Faces Early Test of Italy’s Resolve on Russia and Ukraine

    The hard-right leader Giorgia Meloni has been a full-throated supporter of Ukraine, but her coalition partners have sounded like apologists for Vladimir V. Putin.ROME — Throughout her time in the opposition to Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s national unity government, Giorgia Meloni, the hard-right leader who is poised to become the next Italian prime minister after a strong showing in Sunday’s elections, railed against everything from vaccine requirements to undemocratic power grabs.But on the issue of Ukraine, perhaps the most consequential for the government, she unambiguously criticized Russia’s unwarranted aggression, gave full-throated support for Ukraine’s right to defend itself and, in a recent interview, said she would “totally” continue to provide Italian arms to Kyiv.The same cannot be said for Ms. Meloni’s coalition partners, who have deeply admired Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, and have often sounded like his apologists. Just days before the vote, the former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, once Mr. Putin’s best friend among leaders in Western Europe, claimed “Putin was pushed by the Russian population, by his party and by his ministers to invent this special operation,” and that a flood of arms from the West had thwarted Russian soldiers in their mission to reach “Kyiv within a week, replace Zelensky’s government with decent people and then leave.”The other coalition partner, Matteo Salvini, the leader of the League party, used to wear T-shirts with Mr. Putin’s face on them and has for years been so fawning toward Russia that he has frequently had to reject accusations that he has taken money from Moscow.Recently, with Ms. Meloni apparently uncomfortable as she sat beside him, Mr. Salvini doubted the wisdom of sanctions on Russia, which he said hurt Italy more than Mr. Putin’s government.How Ms. Meloni navigates those tensions in her coalition will now be a key factor in the European Union’s struggle to keep an unbroken front against Russia as the cost of sanctions begins to bite in winter.Prime Minister Mario Draghi of Italy, second from right, visited Ukraine in June with leaders from France, Germany and Romania. Under Mr. Draghi, Italy became a key player in Europe’s hard line against Russia.Viacheslav Ratynskyi/ReutersIf she wavers, especially on sanctions, European leaders who have stood up to Mr. Putin all these months fear it could begin a major unraveling of resolve, widening divisions in the European Union and between the United States and Europe.“We are ready to welcome any political force that can show itself to be more constructive in its relations with Russia,” the Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, said after the Italian election results, according to the Russian news service Tass.But analysts said Russia should not expect a change from Ms. Meloni anytime soon, believing that her position on Ukraine is credible and that the weak showing of her partners in the election will allow her to keep them in their place without blowing up their alliance.“I put my hand today on fire that she is not going to bend,” said Nathalie Tocci, the director of the Institute for International Affairs in Rome. “She’s very gung-ho about Russia.”Despite a widespread suspicion that political calculation lay behind Ms. Meloni’s pivot during the campaign to less hostile positions on the European Union and away from leaders such as Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary and Marine Le Pen in France, analysts judged that on the issue of Ukraine, Ms. Meloni was not likely to budge.In the past, Ms. Meloni has admired Mr. Putin’s defense of Christian values, which is consistent with her own traditionalist rhetoric. But unlike other hard-right politicians and newbie nationalists, like Mr. Salvini, Ms. Meloni was raised in a post-Fascist universe in Italy where Russia — and especially Communist internationalists — represented an Eastern force that threatened the sanctity and peculiarities of Western European identities.For Ms. Meloni it was less difficult to step away from the Putin adoration that swept the populist-nationalist right over the last decade. During the campaign, she was happy to point out this difference with her coalition partners, as she was competing with them and it helped differentiate her and reassure the West of her credibility.Pummeling the competition in Sunday’s election will have made it easier to withstand any attempted pressure from Mr. Salvini or Mr. Berlusconi, who both failed to break into double digits in the polls and were thus left with little leverage.In any case, Mr. Berlusconi and Mr. Salvini had already supported the sanctions as part of Mr. Draghi’s national unity government and didn’t bolt over the issue then. Mr. Salvini, who has sought to distance himself from Mr. Putin, was so hobbled by his disastrous performance in the elections that Rome was rife with speculation that he could be replaced as his party’s leader by a more moderate and less ideological governor from the country’s north, where the League has its electoral base.Ms. Meloni meeting with her coalition partners, Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi, in October 2021. The two men admire Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, and have often sounded like his apologists.Guglielmo Mangiapane/ReutersThat is not to say Ms. Meloni faces no pressure at home for a more forgiving stance. Italy, a country with deep and long ties to Russia, has long had reservations about sanctions against Moscow and getting involved in foreign wars.“I think we should put the question up to the Italians in a referendum,” Stefano Ferretti, 48, a supporter of Ms. Meloni, said on Election Day. “Let’s see if they really want it.”And Italy is not alone in Europe when it comes to doubts about a continued hard line against Russia, and turning away from its cheap energy, ahead of a cold and economically painful winter.In Prague this month, a day after the Czech government survived a no-confidence vote over accusations that it had failed to act on soaring energy prices, tens of thousands of protesters took to the streets to voice outrage on the issue while far-right and fringe groups led many demonstrators in calling for withdrawal from NATO and the European Union. In Sweden, a hard-right party more sympathetic to Mr. Putin was on the winning side in elections this month.Mr. Orban has created complications for the European Union in its efforts to present a united force against Mr. Putin by demanding, and receiving, carve-outs for oil imports in exchange for agreeing to an embargo on Russian crude oil imports, a sanctions measure that required unanimity among member countries. On Monday, Mr. Orban applauded Ms. Meloni’s victory, writing on Facebook: “Bravo Giorgia, A more than deserved victory. Congratulations!”But analysts did not foresee Italy, under Ms. Meloni, playing the same games Hungary has done with sanctions. In her acceptance speech, she emphasized “responsibility” and experts said she was a savvy politician who clearly understood that Italy’s leaving the fold would break the bloc’s Russia strategy.As a reminder, though, only days before the vote, the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, responded to a question about “figures close to Putin” poised to win elections in Italy by saying, “We’ll see.”“If things go in a difficult direction — and I’ve spoken about Hungary and Poland — we have the tools,” she said.Matteo Salvini, the leader of the League party, used to wear T-shirts with Mr. Putin’s face on them.Gianni Cipriano for The New York TimesThe tools included the cutting of funds for member states that Brussels considers in violation of the rule of law. Last week, the commission — which is the European Union’s executive arm — proposed to cut €7.5 billion of funds allocated to Hungary.But Italy is a central pillar not only of the European Union, but of its united front against Russia. Aldo Ferrari, head of the Russia, Caucasus and Central Asia Program at the Institute for International Political Studies in Milan, said Ms. Meloni had made her position “amply clear” throughout the election campaign, and that it was through Ukraine that she “sought legitimacy” among international leaders, especially members of the European Union and NATO.And as Russia is an ever less attractive ally, its pull on the West diminishes. The decision by countries of the European Union to endure economic pain together made it less likely that Italy, which is so woven into the fabric of the union, would break.“Our inclusion in the European Union and NATO,” Mr. Ferrari said, overcame the will “of individual politicians and individual countries.”Under Mr. Draghi, Italy became a key player in Europe’s hard line against Russia, which he has framed as an existential issue that will define the contours and values of the continent for decades to come.While some liberals had hoped he would rally to their side during the election campaign, or at least nod that he preferred them, Mr. Draghi stayed out of it completely. Analysts say he saw the polls, and the writing on the wall, and decided the most prudent coarse of action for his platform, legacy and, some critics say, future ambitions, was a smooth transition of power to Ms. Meloni.“I have a good relationship with Draghi,” Ms. Meloni said in an interview earlier this month. She said that more than once, “He could trust in us much more than the parties he had in his majority.”“Look on Ukraine,” she said. “On Ukraine, we made the foreign policy.”Elisabetta Povoledo More