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    Biden’s America and MBS’s Saudi Arabia: Is Diplomacy Possible?

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    Democrats voice concerns over Biden’s Saudi trip: ‘Their values are not ours’ – as it happened

    Democrats in the Senate are raising their eyebrows at Biden’s decision to travel to Saudi Arabia, objecting to the country’s human rights record and worrying the visit won’t meaningfully lower gas prices.As Oregon’s Ron Wyden told Manu Raju of CNN:Dem pushback this morning on Biden’s decision to meet with MBS. “I don’t see any evidence that the Saudis are going to significantly lower gasoline prices,” Ron Wyden said.On the other hand, I see their horrendous human rights record.”— Manu Raju (@mkraju) June 14, 2022
    Here’s Maryland’s Ben Cardin, who referenced the murder of Jamal Khashoggi:Asked about WH sidestepping queries yesterday on responsibility for Khashoggi murder, Cardin told us: “I hope they’ll be very clear in the conversation. America’s strength is in our values.”— Manu Raju (@mkraju) June 14, 2022
    Kaitlan Collins, also of CNN, heard this from Illinois’s Dick Durbin:’I have mixed feelings on this and if the President called me, I would say, ‘Mr. President, you can’t trust these people. Their standards are not our standards, their values are not ours,'” Sen. Dick Durbin says about President Biden’s upcoming trip to Saudi Arabia.— Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins) June 14, 2022
    Congress was at the center of the action today, where the January 6 committee announced the surprise postponement of its Wednesday hearing. Meanwhile, the top Senate Republican said he would support the gun control compromise reached with Democrats, while the House voted to approve a bill to improve security around the supreme court, sending it to the president’s desk.Other top stories today:
    President Joe Biden made official his plans to visit Saudi Arabia, which is widely seen as a bid to increase oil supply and lower gas prices at home. Several Democrats have expressed disapproval over the visit, citing the kingdom’s human rights record.
    The president meanwhile traveled to in Philadelphia to address a convention of the AFL-CIO trade union federation, in which he defended his economic record and attacked Republican policies.
    A top Biden ally in the Senate proposed levying a windfall tax on oil companies as Democrats try to convince voters corporate greed is fueling record-high gas prices.
    An investigation by the Capitol Police determined a Republican House representative did not give Trump supporters a tour of the building the day before the January 6 attack.
    It’s about to get really hot in America. The National Weather Service is advising more than 100 million people to stay indoors due to high humidity and temperatures.
    The US politics live blog will return on Wednesday, with the supreme court set to announce more decisions at 10am ET.The Republican Party is launching a nine-day “election integrity” tour throughout Wisconsin, less than two months before the battleground state’s primary elections. The tour, which begins Wednesday, will start in La Crosse, Wisconsin and go through Wisconsin’s most liberal cities, including the state’s capital, Madison. Planned events will include an appearance from conservative former state Supreme Court judge Daniel Kelly. The tour has already received pushback from those who say it is meant to spread lies that the 2020 election was fraudulent ahead of the primaries and November’s midterm election. Republicans have argued that the roundtable events are meant to recruit poll workers, voting deputies, and other election day staff as well as connect campaign staff with volunteers. The Capitol Police have determined that a Republican House representative did not give a tour to Trump supporters the day before the January 6 attack.CNN reports that the investigation into Barry Loudermilk of Georgia was requested by the chair and vice chair of the House committee investigating the insurrection, over allegations he was seen hosting visitors on 5 January, 2021.“There is no evidence that Representative Loudermilk entered the U.S. Capitol with this group on January 5, 2021,” Capitol Police Chief Tom Manger wrote to the top Republican on the House Administration Committee. “We train our officers on being alert for people conducting surveillance or reconnaissance, and we do not consider any of the activities we observed as suspicious.”Following the attack on the Capitol, several Democrats accused their Republican colleagues of granting tours to people who went on to storm the building as Congress was meeting to certify Joe Biden’s election win.According to CNN:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;} Manger said the video shows Loudermilk with “a group of approximately 12 people which later grew to 15 people” walking through the Capitol office buildings on January 5. It also states that the group of visitors did not “appear in any tunnels that would lead them to the US Capitol.”
    House Republicans suggested they may release video they believe exonerates Loudermilk of any insinuation that he led a so-called “reconnaissance” tour the night before the January 6 riot.
    The House select committee declined to comment on Manger’s letter.
    The letter the committee sent to Loudermilk last month indicated the panel has reviewed evidence that “directly contradicts” previous claims by Republican lawmakers who said security footage from the days before January 6 shows there were “no tours, no large groups, no one with MAGA hats on” at the US Capitol complex.
    “Based on our review of evidence in the Select Committee’s possession, we believe you have information regarding a tour you led through parts of the Capitol complex on January 5, 2021,” Chairman Bennie Thompson, a Democrat from Mississippi, and Vice Chairwoman Liz Cheney, a Republican from Wyoming, wrote at the time.The House has passed a measure to increase security for the supreme court, sending it to the president’s desk for his signature.A vote was requested and postponed on S. 4160 – Supreme Court Police Parity Act of 2022. https://t.co/CcET8jSBAI— House Press Gallery (@HouseDailyPress) June 14, 2022
    The Senate had unanimously approved the measure back in May, but the House delayed its passage. Republicans in the Senate began attacking Democrats over their failure to pass the measure following last week’s arrest of a man who is charged with planning to kill justice Brett Kavanaugh.Senate approves beefed-up security for US supreme court after abortion leakRead moreVice-president Kamala Harris is meeting with attorneys and activists ahead of a widely expected supreme court decision that could weaken or overturn nationwide abortion rights.VP Harris meeting with legal experts and activist on pending SCOTUS decision on Roe: “I do believe that overturning Roe could clear the way for challenges to other fundamental rights” Named women’s data privacy, IVF, contraception, gay and trans rights pic.twitter.com/qNZnyUEiqo— Jordan Fabian (@Jordanfabian) June 14, 2022
    CNN reports that Harris has been encouraged by people outside the Biden administration to lead the charge against any supreme court decision restricting abortion, as a way to better connect with voters. The network quoted an unnamed official as saying Harris’s “goals really have been around ensuring that people in this country have an understanding of what is at stake here.”The supreme court will issue another batch of decisions on Wednesday beginning at 10 am eastern time, though it’s unknown if that will include the abortion case.The Senate’s top Republican Mitch McConnell said he will support the compromise measure on gun control reached with Democrats over the weekend.The two parties have seldom found agreement on gun control legislation, and McConnell’s endorsement sends a positive signal that the proposal will win enough votes from his party to pass the evenly divided Senate.“If it leads to a piece of legislation, I intend to support it,” McConnell said at a press conference. “I think it’s progress for the country, and I think the bipartisan group has done the best they can to get total support.”While the bill hasn’t been written yet, it doesn’t go as far as many Democrats would like, such as by raising the age to buy an assault weapon to 21 from 18. Many of its provisions focus on improving mental health, as well as offering states money to implement programs intended to stop mass shootings such as those in Uvalde, Texas and Buffalo, New York.US senators reach bipartisan gun control deal after recent mass shootings Read moreOne of Biden’s Senate allies has an idea for lowering gas prices: levy new taxes on oil companies’ profits.Bloomberg reports that Democratic senator Ron Wyden will propose putting a 21 percent tax on petroleum companies with profit margins above 10 percent. The idea comes after the average gas price crossed the $5 a gallon level, which the White House has increasingly looked to blame on forces beyond its control, particularly the disruptions to global markets caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Progressive Democrats have meanwhile sought to convince voters that profit-seeking corporations are to blame for the overall spike in inflation Americans are feeling, and last week, Biden took aim at Exxon Mobil, saying the oil giant “made more money than God this year.Wyden’s proposal, which has yet to be released publicly, would however need the approval of all 50 Democrats to make it through the Senate, and tweaks to the tax code were among the contentious issues the party couldn’t reach an agreement on during last year’s unsuccessful attempt to pass Build Back better. From the article:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}Taxing excessive oil company profits is one of many policy ideas under consideration in the White House, two administration officials said. Yet internally, aides remain concerned such a tax could hurt ongoing efforts to boost the supply of oil.
    If combined with a gasoline rebate, a windfall profits tax would both deter supply and encourage fuel demand, said Kevin Book, managing director of research firm ClearView Energy Partners LLC. “It is the opposite of balancing the market.”
    An idea out of Treasury to place a cap on the price of Russian oil, alongside European allies, has gained far more traction inside the administration.
    Wyden’s plan would also impose a 25% stock buyback tax for oil and gas companies that repurchase their own shares, Wyden spokeswoman Ashley Schapitl confirmed. Both levies apply to oil and gas companies with at least $1 billion in revenue and would expire at the end of 2025, according to the people briefed on the plan.
    Wyden also proposes to eliminate an accounting benefit, known as last-in first-out, or LIFO, that can deliver tax breaks for oil and gas companies with at least $1 billion in revenue starting in 2023.There’s been another sentence handed down over the January 6 attack, this time of a former city councilmember in West Virginia.Eric Barber was sentenced to 45 days in jail for entering the Capitol during the insurrection, as well as a seven-day suspended sentence for stealing a charging station belonging to C-SPAN, West Virginia’s MetroNews reported. The former city councilmember in Parkersburg, West Virginia, also received 24 months of federal probation.“You’re too old and you’re too accomplished and you’re too smart to get involved in nonsense like this,” federal judge Christopher Cooper said during the Thursday sentencing. “This is not about the First Amendment. You are free to express your views. You’re free to support any political candidate or positions or issues that you want. I encourage that. But enough of this nonsense, OK?”According to MetroNews:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}Barber, 43, was being sentenced today in U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia after pleading guilty to two misdemeanors.
    One is a count of parading, demonstrating or picketing in a Capitol Building. The other is theft, an accusation that Barber stole a charging station belonging to a C-SPAN employee.
    He has to pay $500 restitution as his share of damage to the Capitol that day, and he has to pay back C-SPAN a little less than $60 for the charger that he took home.
    Barber was not accused of violence that day, but prosecutors noted that he wore a Kevlar helmet and went to Washington, D.C. to “go punch a Antifa terrorist in the face,” referring to the loosely-knit antifascist activists sometimes accused of violence themselves.
    Prosecutors underscored that Barber entered the Capitol as sirens blared and broken glass was apparent, entering not only the areas that are commonly open to the public but also entering a restricted hallway outside House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s office. Prosecutors said Barber wound up in that hallway twice — the second time after being told to leave. Barber said he was lost.
    But Barber and his public defense attorney emphasized that he had expressed remorse about what happened that day to local media, to investigators, to Congress’s January 6th Committee and to the judge.
    Judge Cooper took note of all those factors.
    “It’s troubling that you still seem to have a mindset of ‘There’s a bully out there. I need to prime for the fight.’ You did not go for self-defense, but you went with the helmet, ready to punch somebody or affirmatively engage in violence,” Cooper said.Barber sentencing memo began with a particularly direct quote.Strongest lede I’ve seen yet in a Jan. 6 defendant’s sentencing memo. pic.twitter.com/3Es2hM4Bpl— Ryan J. Reilly (@ryanjreilly) June 8, 2022
    There is still a lot of buzz about the House panel investigating the January 6, 2021 insurrection by extremist supporters of Donald Trump, as reports spill out about disagreements over whether to refer Trump for criminal prosecution or just lay out the evidence and let others deduce, etc, as well as today’s abrupt postponement of Hearing No. 3.Most of these tweets speak for themselves.Committee needs to keep on track. No more referral talk in public. Keep to the schedule. There has been unity and absence of grandstanding so far. They must keep it that way.— Jennifer ‘I stand with Ukraine’ Rubin 🇺🇦🇺🇦 (@JRubinBlogger) June 14, 2022
    Larry Tribe.“You do not get to arm-twist officials or send the mob to the Capitol because you really, really think you won.”https://t.co/4xtlAfrYf5— Laurence Tribe (@tribelaw) June 14, 2022
    George Conway, cheeky.A Twitter contest—let’s see who can come up with the best answer for:𝘘. 𝘏𝘰𝘸 𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘺 𝘥𝘳𝘶𝘯𝘬 𝘙𝘶𝘥𝘺𝘴 𝘥𝘰𝘦𝘴 𝘪𝘵 𝘵𝘢𝘬𝘦 𝘵𝘰 𝘴𝘤𝘳𝘦𝘸 𝘪𝘯 𝘢 𝘭𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵 𝘣𝘶𝘭𝘣?— George Conway🌻 (@gtconway3d) June 14, 2022
    Conway on ZimmerExcellent thread. 🪡 🧵 https://t.co/scpfcj4SR8— George Conway🌻 (@gtconway3d) June 14, 2022
    Scuitto on TrumpAs you watch the #January6thHearings remember the principal source of disinformation in the 2016 election was foreign. In 2020, it was the sitting US president. And his lies succeeded in convincing a majority of GOP voters the election was stolen.— Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) June 14, 2022
    Much of today’s action has occurred in Congress, where the January 6 committee announced the surprise postponement of its Wednesday hearing. The Senate still doesn’t have the bill text of its gun control compromise to vote on, but the House is moving forward with the vote on a a bill to increase security for the supreme court, which the upper chamber has already approved.Here’s what else is going on:
    President Joe Biden has made official his plans to visit Saudi Arabia, which is widely seen as a bid to increase oil supply and lower gas prices at home. Several Democrats have expressed disapproval over the visit, citing the kingdom’s human rights record.
    The president was meanwhile in Philadelphia to address a convention of the AFL-CIO trade union federation, in which he defended his economic record and attacked Republican policies.
    The votes of Republicans in the Senate will be crucial to passing the gun control bill, and more of the party’s senators offered their thoughts on the legislation.
    It’s about to get really hot in America. The National Weather Service is advising more than 100 million people to stay indoors due to high humidity and temperatures.
    Republicans will be crucial in determining whether the bipartisan gun control proposal makes it through the Senate, and more lawmakers are reacting to the deal reached over the weekend.“I think the framework is very encouraging,” GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski just told me of the guns package. Says she’s eager to see the details but sounds very positive about it. She was not one of the 10 Republicans who signed onto the framework. Bill text still needs to be drafted— Manu Raju (@mkraju) June 14, 2022
    Thune, No. 2 Republican, uncertain whether he would back Senate’s guns package. While he noted there have been some successes, there are “real concerns about due process” with how states adopt red flag laws.“Those are things that are going to have to be addressed,” he told me— Manu Raju (@mkraju) June 14, 2022
    But Bill Cassidy, R who backs framework, said the bill would mandate due process in red flag laws. “You can argue that some state red flag laws do not have due process. we mandate it. So I think as people become acquainted with that, Republicans will like that,” he told us— Manu Raju (@mkraju) June 14, 2022
    “Federal government, we don’t need to be pushing red flag laws,” Tommy Tuberville told me when asked about the guns package. “The states, if the states want to get involved in it, they need to get involved in it.” Plan would incentivize states to enact red flag laws.— Manu Raju (@mkraju) June 14, 2022
    Asked him how to take away guns from mentally ill. He said: “Well let’s look at what they’ve got proposed. I haven’t looked at all of it. But let’s look…and see if they’ve got anything in there to prohibit mentally ill patients from having guns, anybody that’s having problems”— Manu Raju (@mkraju) June 14, 2022
    Democrats are expected to back the proposal even though it doesn’t do all of what they want, such as raising the age to purchase an assault rifle to 21 from 18. To avoid a filibuster, at least 10 Republicans in the Senate will need to vote for the bill, which also must clear the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives.Biden has used his speech at the AFL-CIO convention in Philadelphia to promote his handling of the economy make a pitch for keeping Democrats in office.As CBS News’s Ed O’Keefe reports:TODAY: @POTUS Biden addresses a @AFLCIO convention in Philly to tout US economic strength: low unemployment rates, states and cities being buoyed by American Rescue Plan and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. White House says he’ll reiterate fighting inflation “is his top priority.”— Ed O’Keefe (@edokeefe) June 14, 2022
    Also expect some election year contrasts: Biden/Dems would “ask the wealthy to pay their fair share” while @SenRickScott and “Congressional Republicans” would “put Medicare, Social Security, and Medicaid on the chopping block every five years.”— Ed O’Keefe (@edokeefe) June 14, 2022
    A new election-year clarion call of sorts from @POTUS Biden in his @AFLCIO speech: “America still has a choice to make. A choice between a government by the few, for the few. Or a government for all of us, democracy for all of us, an economy where all of us have a fair shot.”— Ed O’Keefe (@edokeefe) June 14, 2022
    The president also took special notice of a Republican proposal to make all federal legislation expire after five years, asking, “How well are you going to sleep at night knowing that every five years, Ted Cruz and the other ultra-MAGA Republicans are going to vote on whether you have Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid?”Democrats in the Senate are raising their eyebrows at Biden’s decision to travel to Saudi Arabia, objecting to the country’s human rights record and worrying the visit won’t meaningfully lower gas prices.As Oregon’s Ron Wyden told Manu Raju of CNN:Dem pushback this morning on Biden’s decision to meet with MBS. “I don’t see any evidence that the Saudis are going to significantly lower gasoline prices,” Ron Wyden said.On the other hand, I see their horrendous human rights record.”— Manu Raju (@mkraju) June 14, 2022
    Here’s Maryland’s Ben Cardin, who referenced the murder of Jamal Khashoggi:Asked about WH sidestepping queries yesterday on responsibility for Khashoggi murder, Cardin told us: “I hope they’ll be very clear in the conversation. America’s strength is in our values.”— Manu Raju (@mkraju) June 14, 2022
    Kaitlan Collins, also of CNN, heard this from Illinois’s Dick Durbin:’I have mixed feelings on this and if the President called me, I would say, ‘Mr. President, you can’t trust these people. Their standards are not our standards, their values are not ours,'” Sen. Dick Durbin says about President Biden’s upcoming trip to Saudi Arabia.— Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins) June 14, 2022 More

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    Can Anything About US Foreign Policy Be Normal?

    The Fair Observer website uses digital cookies so it can collect statistics on how many visitors come to the site, what content is viewed and for how long, and the general location of the computer network of the visitor. These statistics are collected and processed using the Google Analytics service. Fair Observer uses these aggregate statistics from website visits to help improve the content of the website and to provide regular reports to our current and future donors and funding organizations. The type of digital cookie information collected during your visit and any derived data cannot be used or combined with other information to personally identify you. Fair Observer does not use personal data collected from its website for advertising purposes or to market to you.As a convenience to you, Fair Observer provides buttons that link to popular social media sites, called social sharing buttons, to help you share Fair Observer content and your comments and opinions about it on these social media sites. These social sharing buttons are provided by and are part of these social media sites. They may collect and use personal data as described in their respective policies. Fair Observer does not receive personal data from your use of these social sharing buttons. It is not necessary that you use these buttons to read Fair Observer content or to share on social media. More

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    Saudis’ Biden snub suggests crown prince still banking on Trump’s return

    Saudis’ Biden snub suggests crown prince still banking on Trump’s returnRefusal to help US punish Russia and $2bn investment in Kushner fund signal crown prince’s displeasure with Trump’s successor Saudi Arabia appears to be banking on Donald Trump’s return to office by refusing to help the US punish Russia for the Ukraine invasion, and by placing $2bn in a new, untested investment fund run by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner.In seeking to persuade Riyadh to increase oil production so as to lower prices by as much as 30%, and thereby curb Russian government revenue, the Biden administration is looking for ways to reassure the Saudi government that it is dedicated to the kingdom’s security.The White House said on Thursday it was an “iron-clad commitment from the president on down”, and the Pentagon is reported to be working on a draft of a new statement of US-Saudi security arrangements, but observers say it is likely to fall short of the firm guarantees the Saudis and other Gulf states are demanding.The kingdom’s de facto ruler, Mohammed bin Salman, reportedly declined to take a call from Joe Biden last month, showing his displeasure at the administration’s restrictions on arms sales; what he saw as its insufficient response to attacks on Saudi Arabia by Houthi forces in Yemen; its publication of a report into the Saudi regime’s 2018 murder of the dissident and Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi; and Biden’s prior refusal to deal in person with the crown prince.Instead, Prince Mohammed shows signs of betting on the return to office of Trump in 2024, and the resumption of the Trump administration’s cosy relationship with Riyadh.There have been calls for an investigation into the huge investment made by the Saudi Public Investment Fund, controlled by Prince Mohammed, in Affinity Partners, a private equity firm set up by Jared Kushner months after he left the White House and his job as special adviser to Trump, his father-in-law.In doing so, the kingdom’s de facto ruler ignored the warnings of the Saudi fund’s own advisory panel. It worried about Affinity’s inexperience: Kushner was in real estate before his White House stint, and his track record of investments was widely considered not particularly good. It was concerned that the new company’s due diligence on operations was “unsatisfactory in all aspects”, and that it was charging “excessive” fees, according to a report in the New York Times.“It boils down to something very simple. The Saudis – meaning Mohammed bin Salman – have chosen Trump over Biden, and they’re sticking to their bet,” said Bruce Riedel, a former senior CIA official who is director of the Brookings Institution’s intelligence project.“It’s not an unreasonable proposition. Trump gave them everything they wanted: complete support in Yemen, support over the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, whatever they wanted in terms of access in the United States.”John Jenkins, a former UK ambassador to Saudi Arabia said: “I suspect [the crown prince] is betting on the Republicans winning big in the midterms and then regaining the presidency – with or without Trump.”He added: “He probably thinks Biden is politically weak and he can therefore afford to spite him. That sends a signal not just to the Dems but also to the Republican party. And – judging by the debate raging in DC policy circles on these matters – it’s working.”The Saudi embassy in Washington did not respond to a request for comment.Senior Democrats reacted furiously to the revelation of the Saudi investment into Kushner’s fund. Senator Elizabeth Warren called for the justice department to “take a really hard look” at whether the arrangement was illegal.Senator Chris Murphy tweeted: “Just because the breathtaking corruption occurs in public doesn’t make it not breathtaking.”In the first months of the Trump administration, Kushner was instrumental in switching its support from the former crown prince, Mohammed bin Nayef, to the much younger Mohammed bin Salman, with whom the president’s son-in-law had established a rapport largely over the messaging service WhatsApp. After the Khashoggi murder, Kushner was also the crown prince’s staunchest advocate.As for the Biden administration, there are advocates inside it for placating the Saudi crown prince in pursuit of the overarching objective of bringing down oil prices – for its impact both on Kremlin coffers and on the politically sensitive price at the pump.“There is a real argument at the moment that you can befriend anyone who isn’t Russia now,” a European diplomat observed. The Pentagon has recently been holding meetings aimed at hammering out a statement on US security arrangements with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.However, Kirsten Fontenrose, former senior director for the Gulf at the national security council, said that whatever the administration comes up with is unlikely to come close to regional demands for security guarantees akin to Nato’s article 5 provisions for mutual defence.“There’s been this big push for an article 5 by a lot of these countries recently,” said Fontenrose, now a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. “But there’s not a chance they are going to get it.”The Pentagon would not comment on its reported work reframing Gulf security arrangements. A spokesman, Army Maj Rob Lodewick, said: “The Department of Defense remains committed to helping advance the security of Saudi Arabia against serious external threats.“We are doing this through defense cooperation, arms transfers and defense trade, exercises, training and exchanges, alongside engagement on human rights and civilian harm mitigation.”Even if the administration wanted to offer such guarantees, there is no way such an agreement would gain approval from Congress, where the progressive wing of the Democratic party wants Biden to be tougher on Riyadh, especially in view of its lack of cooperation over oil production and Russia.“The US continues to provide certain types of equipment. They have announced several arms sales just within the last year. There is logistics support and maintenance,” said Seth Binder, director of advocacy at the Project on Middle East Democracy. “All these things to my mind should be on the table, particularly if this Saudi regime continues to increase this sort of public pressure on the Biden administration.”Many observers believe, however, that Mohammed is unlikely to be swayed either by wooing or by threats, as the high oil price boosts his budget while he waits for a more amenable administration.“I don’t see it changing very much. The Saudis have chosen to go with Putin and the oil production level they want, and the world economy is adjusting to that,” Reidel said. “I don’t think there’s much room for manoeuvre for Biden either … I think there are powerful forces against that.”TopicsUS foreign policyUS politicsSaudi ArabiaDonald TrumpMohammed bin SalmanMiddle East and north AfricaanalysisReuse this content More

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    Saudi executions are glossed over for oil | Brief letters

    Saudi executions are glossed over for oilImproved human rights | A chant for Putin | Dame Caroline Haslett | Boycotting P&O During his trip to Saudi Arabia, Boris Johnson praised the country’s improved human rights record (Boris Johnson upbeat on Saudi oil supply as kingdom executes three more, 16 March). As only three men were executed during his visit there, compared with 81 at the weekend, is that what Johnson means by an improving human rights record?Jim KingBirmingham During the Vietnam war, when Lyndon B Johnson was US president, demonstrators chanted daily outside the White House: “Hey, hey, LBJ, how many kids did you kill today?” The same question would no doubt be asked of Putin by Russians (Survivors leaving basement of Mariupol theatre after airstrike, say officials, 17 March), if they did not live yet again under a repressive dictatorship.David WinnickLondon Alas, Dame Caroline Haslett can’t quite claim Haslett Avenue, Crawley, in the name of balancing up memorials to women (Letters, 17 March). Crawley Development Corporation declared the new road in the name of her father, Robert, a popular railwayman, rather than the electrifying dame herself.John CoobanCrawley, West Sussex Can you publish a list of all companies owned by P&O and its parent firm DP World, so that we consumers can ensure we never use them again (‘Scandalous betrayal’: MPs condemn P&O Ferries for mass sacking of 800 staff, 17 March)?Michael Griffith-JonesLondonTopicsSaudi ArabiaBrief lettersBoris JohnsonHuman rightsMohammed bin SalmanOilUS politicsVladimir PutinlettersReuse this content More

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    Can Self-Help Diplomacy Lower Political Heat in the Middle East?

    Since the end of the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, the United States has been the unchallenged dominant power in the Middle East and North Africa. As such, it often saw its role, for better or worse, as fixing the region’s many problems. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Iraq and Saddam Hussein, Iran, high oil prices, Gulf security, Western Sahara, menacing non-state organizations, counterterrorism, human rights, democracy, autocratic leaders, failed states — whatever the concern or challenge, the Americans came to view them as priority issues and their responsibility. Moreover, many regional states and even their citizens often saw America’s involvement as a necessity, sometimes even an obligation to tamp down the region’s frenzied political climate.

    Will Saudi-Iran Talks Lead to Anything?

    READ MORE

    But times have changed. Three recent presidents — Barack Obama, Donald Trump and now Joe Biden — have made efforts to distance the US from its endless, exasperating entanglements in the Middle East. Those efforts had distracted the United States from its principal challenges in the world — China and Russia — and sapped it of its military, economic and political might and influence. America received very little in return on its investment. Furthermore, years of US involvement in the region had also fractured the American public’s support for the more critically important role it must play in anchoring the international order.

    Enter the Others

    Downgrading America’s involvement in the Middle East isn’t necessarily a bad thing. For decades, many in the Middle East and in the US had argued that the region’s problems must be tackled by the governments and people of the region. Outsiders can play a supporting role, but the tough decisions can only be made by the governments themselves. That may now be happening.

    But handing off the task of addressing the region’s manifold challenges got off to a poor start. Neither the US, nor the international community, nor the states of the Middle East seemed able to solve the conundrum of the region’s three failed states.

    Embed from Getty Images

    Then, starting around 2015, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman started ordering others around — imposing a blockade on Qatar, detaining the Lebanese prime minister, jailing courageous dissidents and largely harmless millionaires, ordering a hit job on journalist Jamal Khashoggi and jumping into the Yemeni Civil War. And it all went bad, very bad in fact. Additionally, it provoked other would-be movers and shakers to get in the act, including the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Iran, China, Russia and even Israel. And not always with good intent or positive results.

    After years of misdirection, however, governments now seem to be taking a more sober and responsible approach that could prove genuinely beneficial for the region. For starters, they have embarked on a simple approach: dialog. They are talking about their problems, especially those between and among one another. Dialog leads to understanding, which can lead to shared interests. Ultimately, to be effective, dialog must lead to compromise. That involves the inevitable give-and-take that allows nations, especially those close to one another, to live and thrive in peace and prosperity.

    It’s a Start

    One of the most encouraging initiatives may be the most unexpected: dialog between the Middle East’s two major powers, Iran and Saudi Arabia, and hosted by perhaps the most unlikely state, Iraq, unquestionably the region’s most conflict-ridden for decades. The issues are many between these two historic rivals, separated by a narrow gulf on whose name neither seems able to agree. But the larger gulf lies in their differing views of the other, their competing religious sects — the Saudi uber-conservative Wahhabi Sunni Islam vs. Iran’s clerically-led, conservative Shia Islam — perceptions of the other’s role and intentions in the region, their wealth, and relations with and ties to the broader international community, almost non-existent in the case of Iran.

    One especially neuralgic issue for both is their respective roles in the Yemen War. It is now abundantly clear that the Saudis’ overwhelming military power, bolstered by the US and some European nations, cannot defeat the Houthi rebels. Nor can it end either the war or even its costly intervention in it. The Saudis need help. Enter the Iranians, who have been supporting the Shia-affiliated Zaydi Houthis in this war since 2013. With ideology and much-needed weapons and funding, though much less than what Saudi Arabia has expended, the Iranians have empowered the rebels to the point where they are now an established power in a future Yemen, whether unified or bifurcated.

    So, the two regional powers are talking it out. The Saudis want out of the war, but they also want reliable security along their southwestern border. The Iranians want a Shia power on the Arabian Peninsula, but preferably one at peace.

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    Yemen may be the most immediate challenge for the two states. But there are others. More broadly, Saudi Arabia and Iran need to reach a modus vivendi in the region. On-again, off-again formal relations, menacing behavior toward each other’s oil and shipping interests, and verbal assaults do little more than increase the temperature in a region plagued by heat, literally and figuratively.

    Brothers Reconcile?

    Saudi Arabia has also launched a campaign to repair the frayed relations among its Arab neighbors. Last week, Mohammed bin Salman week began a PR campaign to demonstrate a new and improved political environment. In a swing through the neighboring Gulf states of Oman, the UAE, Bahrain and, most importantly, Qatar, he seems to be trying to rebuild what once had been the region’s preeminent multilateral organization, the Gulf Cooperation Council.

    Mohammed bin Salman single-handedly fractured the Gulf alliance when he imposed his 2017 blockade on Qatar, joined by the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt. It backfired. Qatar remained in the good graces of the US, drew the political and military support of peripheral power Turkey and earned the support of Iran. Consider it the young prince’s on-the-job training in global as well as regional politics. He is now devoting particular attention to Doha in the hope of what yet we aren’t quite certain. But this repair work and goodwill tour cannot help but create progress.

    And not to be outdone, the Gulf’s other power, the UAE, has embarked on its own diplomatic repair mission. Like the Saudis, the Emiratis want to lower the temperature in the Gulf, and their position as the region’s prime economic entrepôt gives them special heft. The UAE’s ties to the US, still the unquestioned but now quiescent power in the Gulf, also lend special weight.

    Could It All Be for Naught?

    Looming over all of these laudable efforts, however, is Iranian behavior in the region. All eyes are now on the recently restarted talks over the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in Vienna, Austria. Following a near-six-month hiatus at Iran’s request, the P5+1 group and Iran renewed negotiations to reinstate the JCPOA — aka the Iran nuclear deal.

    But it is the critical non-dialog between the US and Iran — the two countries are still not meeting face-to-face but rather communicating through the intermediation of the other P5+1 countries — that bears the most serious watching. Unless they can agree on a way forward that puts Iran’s nuclear weapons potential well into the very distant future while also lifting America’s onerous and inescapably crippling sanctions on the Islamic Republic, the heat in the Middle East will become white hot.

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    Judging from the US State Department’s uncharacteristically downcast semi-official readout of the first round of the negotiation restart, there is cause for concern. Iran’s counterproductive, albeit predictable, maximalist opening gambit soured the P5+1, even China and Russia. Negotiators met again last week. Unless there is a greater attitude toward compromise, however, pessimism will win out. Positions will harden. And more extreme (and dangerous) measures will become viable.

    President Biden has reiterated the US pledge that Iran will not get nuclear weapons. But neither he nor his secretary of state, Antony Blinken, will state what the consequences of failed talks might be.

    Israel, however, is not so coy. Recent Israeli statements confirm that the military option is very much in play. As if to put an even finer point on the matter, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin visited Jerusalem late last week for meetings with his Israeli counterpart, Defense Minister Benny Gantz. Both men are retired top generals of their respective armed forces and will have discussed military and other options.

    Military action would be an unspeakable disaster for the Middle East. But so would a nuclear-armed or even nuclear-capable Iran. Even an approach that stops short of armed conflict will impose extraordinary hardship on the region, certainly prompting other states to consider acquiring nuclear weapons and further isolate Iran.

    It would be unfair to place the entirety of the burden for the success of these talks on Tehran. However, unless Iran understands the futility of its mindless pursuit of nuclear weapons, no effort at fostering understanding elsewhere can temper the region’s mercury-popping political heat.

    The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy. More

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    Will Saudi-Iran Talks Lead to Anything?

    Saudi Arabia and Iran have engaged in four rounds of talks over the last six months, the most recent of which with the hardliner Ebrahim Raisi already inaugurated as president. A fifth meeting is expected to take place before the end of 2021. The success of the negotiations will depend, to an important extent, on both countries being realistic about Iran’s role in the Yemen conflict.

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    Until now, the negotiations have reportedly revolved around two main issues. The first is the restoration of diplomatic relations between both countries. Bilateral ties were cut off in 2016 when Saudi Arabia executed Nimr Baqir al-Nimr, a Saudi dissident who was a Shia cleric, and protesters in Tehran stormed the Saudi Embassy in retaliation. The second topic of discussion is the Yemen War, which entered a new phase with the 2015 Saudi-led intervention against Houthi rebels who had taken over the Yemeni capital, Sanaa.

    For more than one year, the Saudis have been looking for a way out of Yemen. The enormous economic costs of the conflict became more problematic when oil prices fell as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing lockdowns.

    Even after the recovery of the hydrocarbon market, the fact remains that six years of war have not brought Saudi Arabia any closer to its two major goals in Yemen: reestablishing Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi as president and constraining the Houthis’ influence. Furthermore, US President Joe Biden, while not as tough on the kingdom as promised in his election campaign, has been less conciliatory with Saudi Arabia than his predecessor, Donald Trump.

    Who Are the Houthis?

    The Saudis often present the Houthis as little more than Iranian puppets. Iran’s official position is that the Houthi movement only receives ideological support from Tehran. Both narratives are inaccurate, to say the least.

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    The Houthis are a homegrown movement that successfully resisted the Yemeni government’s military offensives from 2004 to 2010 without any external assistance. Hussein al-Houthi, the movement’s early leader and from whom its name is derived, was an admirer of the 1979 Iranian Revolution and was influenced by its symbolism and ideology. His brother and current leader of the movement, Abdel-Malek al-Houthi, has also expressed his admiration for the Islamic Republic.

    The first credible reports of Iranian military support for the Houthis date back to 2013. Until 2016, weapons transfers were largely restricted to light arsenal. In the following years, Tehran started to supply the Houthis with increasingly sophisticated missile and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) components. Furthermore, a contingent of Iranian Revolutionary Guards on the ground has been training Houthi fighters. The Yemeni movement’s capacity to target key strategical interests within Saudi Arabia, such as oil extraction facilities, pipelines and airports, cannot be understood without accounting for Iran’s role in the conflict.

    At the same time, and contrary to Saudi claims, the Houthis are largely independent from Iran. Their territorial expansion in 2014 was politically built on its Faustian bargain with the former Yemeni president and arch-rival, Ali Abdullah Saleh, and the unpopularity of the Hadi government, which was backed by Saudi Arabia.

    Moreover, most of the Houthis’ current arsenal has not been sourced from Iran. It has rather been acquired in the local black market — which is well-connected to the Horn of Africa’s smuggling routes — captured in battle or as a result of the defection of governmental military units to the Houthis. Before the war began, Yemen was already a country awash with small weaponry, coming only second to the US in terms of weapons per capita.

    According to the official Saudi narrative, the Houthis necessitate Iranian help to maintain their military effort. While this is most likely the case when it comes to the group’s capability to strike targets within Saudi territory, an abrupt end of Iranian military assistance to the Houthis would make little difference in Yemen’s internal balance of power.

    What Saudi Arabia and Iran Need to Do

    Saudi Arabia needs to come to terms with the fact that its attempt to impose a military solution in Yemen has failed. It has done so because of counterproductive airstrikes, support for unpopular local actors and a misunderstanding of internal dynamics. If Yemen has become Saudi Arabia’s quagmire, this has little to do with Iran’s limited support for the Houthis.

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    Iran, for its part, should understand that its claims of non-interference in the Yemen War have gained a farcical nature over the years, as growing evidence has piled up on Iranian–Houthi ties. Iranian leaders cannot impose on the Houthis an end to attacks against Saudi territory. However, they can decisively constrain them by stopping the flow of UAV and missile technology to the Houthis, as well as ending their military training on the ground. In conjunction with this, Iran can support the direct Houthi–Saudi talks that began in late 2019.

    For Saudi–Iranian negotiations to bear fruits in relation to the Yemen conflict, both sides need to show a realistic appraisal of Iran’s role in the war. It comes down to acknowledging two key facts. On the one hand, Iran has leverage over the Houthis because of its military support for the group. On the other hand, this leverage is inherently limited and cannot be used to grant Saudi Arabia a military victory in Yemen.

    The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy. More

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    9/11 and the American Collective Unconscious

    A little more than a month ago, the most newsworthy controversy surrounding the imminent and highly symbolic 20th anniversary of 9/11 concerned the message by families of the victims that Joe Biden would not be welcome at the planned commemoration. They reproached the US president for failing to make good on last year’s campaign promise to declassify the documents they believe will reveal Saudi Arabia’s implication in the attacks.

    That was the story that grabbed headlines at the beginning of August. Hardly a week later, everything had changed. Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan, fell to the Taliban and soon the 20-year war would be declared over.

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    Though few paid attention to the phenomenon, this also meant that the significance of a commemoration of the attacks, would be radically different. For 19 years, the commemoration served to reinforce the will and resolution of the nation to overcome the humiliation of the fallen twin towers and a damaged wing of the Pentagon.

    Redefining the Meaning of the Historical Trauma

    In the aftermath of the attacks on September 11, 2001, politicians quickly learned to exploit the date as a painful reminder of a tragedy that had unified an otherwise chaotically disputatious nation in shared horror and mourning. Ever since that fatal day, politicians have invoked it to reinforce the belief in American exceptionalism.

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    The nation is so exceptional in generously providing its people with what President George W. Bush called “our freedoms” — and which he identified as the target of the terrorists — that it was logical to suppose that evil people who didn’t possess those freedoms or were prevented from emigrating to the land of the free would do everything in their power to destroy those freedoms. To the degree that Americans are deeply thankful for possessing such an exceptional status, other ill-intentioned people will take exception to that exceptionality and in their unjustified jealousy will threaten to destroy it.

    On a less philosophical and far more pragmatic note, the remembrance of the 9/11 attacks has conveniently and consistently served to justify an ever-expanding military budget that no patriotic American, interested in preserving through the force of arms the nation’s exceptional status, should ever oppose. It went without saying, through the three previous presidencies, that the annual commemoration provided an obvious explanation of why the forever war in Afghanistan was lasting forever.

    The fall of Kabul on August 15, followed by the panicked retreat of all remaining Americans, caught everyone by surprise. It unexpectedly brought an official end to the war whose unforgettable beginning is traced back to that bright September day in 2001. Though no one has yet had the time to put it all in perspective, the debate in the media has shifted away from glossing the issues surrounding an ongoing war on terror to assessing the blame for its ignominious end. Some may have privately begun to wonder whether the theme being commemorated on this September 11 now concerns the martyrdom of its victims or the humiliation of the most powerful nation in the history of the world. The pace of events since mid-August has meant that the media have been largely silent on this quandary.

    So, What About Saudi Arabia?

    With the American retreat, the controversy around Biden’s unkept campaign promise concerning Saudi Arabia’s implication in 9/11 provisionally took a backseat to a much more consequent quarrel, one that will have an impact on next year’s midterm elections. Nearly every commentator has been eager to join the fray focusing on the assessment of the wisdom or folly of both Biden’s decision to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan and his seemingly improvised management of the final chaotic phase.

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    The human tragedy visible in the nightly news as throngs of people at Kabul airport desperately sought to flee the country easily eclipsed the genteel but politically significant showdown between a group of American citizens demanding the truth and a government committed to protecting the reputations of friends and allies, especially ones from oil-rich nations.

    The official excuse turns around the criterion that has become a magic formula: national security. But the relatives of victims are justified in wondering which nation’s security is being prioritized. They have a sneaking suspicion that some people in Washington have confused their own nation’s security with Saudi Arabia’s. Just as John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt not long ago revealed that plenty of people within the Beltway continue to confuse US foreign policy with Israel’s, the families may be justified in suspecting that Saudi Arabia’s interest in hiding the truth trumps American citizens’ right to know the truth.

    To appease the families of 9/11 victims and permit his unimpeded participation in the commemorations, Biden offered to release some of the classified documents. It was a clever move, since the new, less-redacted version will only become available well after the commemoration. This gesture seems to have accomplished its goal of preventing an embarrassing showdown at the commemoration ceremonies. But it certainly will not be enough to satisfy the demands of the families, who apparently remain focused on obtaining that staple of the US criminal justice system: “the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth.”

    Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, may have shown the way concerning the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018. Like MBS, the White House prefers finding a way to release some of the truth rather than the whole truth — just the amount that doesn’t violate national security or tarnish the reputations of any key people. Those two goals have increasingly become synonymous. If the people knew what actual political personalities were doing, the nation’s security might be endangered, as the people might begin to lose faith in a government that insists on retaining the essential power of deciding how the truth should be told.

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    Here is how the White House officially formulates the legal principle behind its commitment to unveiling a little more truth than is currently available. “Although the indiscriminate release of classified information could jeopardize the national security — including the United States Government’s efforts to protect against future acts of terrorism — information should not remain classified when the public interest in disclosure outweighs any damage to the national security that might reasonably be expected from disclosure.”

    The White House has thus formulated an innovative legal principle brilliantly designed to justify concealing enough of the naked truth to avoid offending public morals by revealing its stark nakedness. Legal scholars of the future may refer to it as the “indiscriminate release” principle. Its logical content is worth exploring. It plays on the auxiliary verbs “could” and “should.” “Could” is invoked in such a way as to suggest that, though it is possible, no reasonable person would take the risk of an “indiscriminate release of classified information.” Later in the same sentence, the auxiliary verb “should” serves to speculatively establish the moral character of the principle. It tells us what “should” be the case — that is, what is morally ideal — even if inevitably the final result will be quite different. This allows the White House to display its good intentions while preparing for an outcome that will surely disappoint.

    To justify its merely partial exposure of the truth, the White House offers another original moral concept when it promises the maximization of transparency. The full sentence reads: “It is therefore critical to ensure that the United States Government maximizes transparency.”

    There is of course an easy way to maximize transparency if that is truly the government’s intention. It can be done simply by revealing everything and hiding nothing within the limits of its physical capability. No one doubts that the government is physically capable of removing all the redactions. But the public should know by now that the value cited as overriding all others — national security — implicitly requires hiding a determined amount of the truth. In other words, it is framed as a trade-off between maximum transparency and minimum concealment. Biden has consistently compared himself to President Franklin D. Roosevelt. Perhaps that trade-off between transparency and concealment is what historians will call Biden’s New Deal.

    But the White House’s reasoning is not yet complete. The document offers yet another guiding principle to explain why not everything will become visible. “Thus, information collected and generated in the United States Government’s investigation of the 9/11 terrorist attacks should now be disclosed,” it affirms, “except when the strongest possible reasons counsel otherwise.” Those reasons, the document tells us, will be defined by the Federal Bureau of Investigation during its “declassification reviews.” This invocation of the “strongest possible reasons” appears to empower the FBI to define or at least apply not only what is “strongest,” but also what is “possible.” That constitutes a pretty broad power.

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    The document states very clearly what the government sees as the ultimate criterion for declassification: “Information may remain classified only if it still requires protection in the interest of the national security and disclosure of the information reasonably could be expected to result in damage to the national security. Information shall not remain classified if there is significant doubt about the need to maintain its classified status.” The families of the victims can simply hope that there will not be too much “significant doubt.” They might be forgiven for doubting that that will be the case.

    One September Morning vs. 20 Years of Subsequent Mornings

    Twenty years ago, a spectacular crime occurred on the East Coast of the United States that set off two decades of crimes, blunders and judgment errors that, now compounded by COVID-19 and aggravated climate change, have brought the world to a crisis point unique in human history.

    The Bush administration, in office for less than eight months at the time of the event, with no certain knowledge of who the perpetrator might have been, chose to classify the attack not as a crime, but as an act of war. When the facts eventually did become clearer after a moment of hesitation in which the administration attempted even to implicate Iraq, the crime became unambiguously attributable, not to a nation but to a politically motivated criminal organization: Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaeda that back then was operating out of Afghanistan, which was ruled by the Taliban.

    The administration’s choice of treating the attack as an act of war not only stands as a crime in itself, but, as history has shown, as the trigger for a series of even more shameless and far more destructive — if not quite as spectacular — crimes that would roll out for the next two decades and even gain momentum over time. Had the 9/11 attacks been treated as crimes rather than acts of war, the question of national security would have had less importance in the investigation. By going to war with Afghanistan, the Bush administration made it more difficult to investigate all the possible complicities. Could this partially explain its precipitation to start a war?

    Bin Laden, a Saudi, did not act alone. But he did not act in the name of a state either, which is the fundamental criterion for identifying an act of war. He acted within a state, in the territory of Afghanistan. Though his motive was political and the chosen targets were evocatively symbolic of political power, the act itself was in no way political. No more so, in any case, than the January 6 insurrection this year on Capitol Hill.

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    Though the facts are still being obscured and the text describing them remains redacted in the report of the 9/11 Commission, reading between the redacted lines reveals that bin Laden did have significant support from powerful personalities in Saudi Arabia, many of them with a direct connection to the government. This foreknowledge would seem to indicate complicity at some level of the state.

    On this 20th anniversary of a moment of horror, the families of the victims quite logically continue to suspect that if a state was involved that might eventually justify a declaration of war by Congress (as required by the US Constitution), the name of that state should not have been Afghanistan, but Saudi Arabia. It is equally clear that the Afghan government at the time was in no way directly complicit.

    When the new version of the 9/11 Commission’s report appears with its “maximum transparency,” meaning a bare minimum of redaction, the objections of the victims’ families will no longer be news, and the truth about the deeper complicities around 9/11 will most probably remain obscured. Other dramas, concerning the state of the COVID-19 pandemic, the increasingly obvious consequences of climate change and an upcoming midterm election will probably mean that next year’s 21st commemoration will be low-keyed and possibly considered unworthy of significant mention in the news.

    In 2021, the world has become a decidedly different place than it has been over the past two decades. The end of a forever war simply promises a host of new forever problems to emerge for increasingly unstable democracies to deal with.

    The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy. More