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    After New Hamphire, Business Braces for a Trump Nomination

    Donald Trump cruised to victory in the state’s Republican primary, leaving anti-Trump donors and others to grapple with the reality of a near-certain nomination.Donald Trump cruised to victory in the New Hampshire Republican primary on Tuesday night.Doug Mills/The New York TimesTrump marches on As widely expected, Donald Trump handily won the New Hampshire Republican primary, defeating Nikki Haley by double digits.That has left anti-Trump donors and the broader business community glimpsing an increasingly likely future: The former president will become the Republican nominee, and stands a good shot of winning in November.Haley said she would fight on, arguing last night that “this race is far from over.” But the former South Carolina governor will head to her home state — she’s skipping the Nevada caucuses on Feb. 8 — badly trailing Trump in polls there, with many of her Palmetto State colleagues having endorsed her opponent.A growing number of Republicans are now suggesting that she should drop out: Senator John Cornyn of Texas, a senior G.O.P. lawmaker, said that his party needed “to unite around a single candidate.”Donors may start falling in line, too. A number of Haley supporters are reportedly heading to the exits: An unnamed Republican fund-raiser told CNBC’s Brian Schwartz that one of her donors was done with her campaign, declaring it over.Meanwhile, Puck’s Teddy Schleifer wrote on the social media platform X that the casino magnate Steve Wynn and the financier John Paulson attended Trump’s New Hampshire victory party last night. And Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, who appeared at the event, told Schleifer that he expected the Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison, his biggest backer before Scott dropped out of the primary race, to support Trump as well.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

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    Tim Scott Is Engaged to Be Married

    Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, who for years faced speculation about his marital status, on Saturday proposed to Mindy Noce, his girlfriend and an interior designer who lives in Charleston. She said yes.It’s been a whirlwind few days for Mr. Scott, whose endorsement of former President Donald J. Trump at a New Hampshire rally on Friday renewed talk about his consideration as a running mate, should Mr. Trump win the Republican nomination. The engagement, which was first reported by The Washington Post, comes after more than a year of dating. Mr. Scott made his relationship with Ms. Noce public when he brought her onstage after a Republican presidential primary debate — the last he would participate in before suspending his campaign in November. The two met at church.A spokesman for Mr. Scott, Nathan Brand, confirmed the engagement, which took place on Kiawah Island, S.C., near Charleston. Mr. Scott and Ms. Noce had a celebratory dinner afterward and Ms. Noce attended church the following morning, wearing her engagement ring.Mr. Scott shared his news with a national audience on “Sunday Night in America,” the Fox News program hosted by Trey Gowdy, his friend and a former South Carolina congressman.Mr. Scott, a longtime bachelor, attempted to keep his relationship status quiet. Even so, his bachelorhood had been the subject of much scrutiny during his presidential run and in his Senate career. Asked multiple times on the campaign trail about his marital status, Mr. Scott often demurred, saying he was praying for the right woman before taking that step.“One of the things I love about the Gospel of Jesus Christ is that it points us always in the right direction. Proverbs 18:22 says, ‘He who finds a wife finds a good thing and obtains favor from the Lord,’” he told Brenna Bird, the Iowa attorney general, in September. “So can we just pray together for me?” More

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    Trump Tries to Turn the G.O.P. Race Into a Vice-Presidential Casting Call

    Painting himself as inevitable, and seeing who will butter him up the most, Donald Trump has paraded a series of possible running mates, including Tim Scott, Elise Stefanik and J.D. Vance.Donald J. Trump has won just a single nominating contest, but his potential running mates already outnumber his presidential rivals on the campaign trail.As he pursues a victory over Nikki Haley in New Hampshire that would send him on a glide path to the nomination, Mr. Trump seems to be holding casting calls for possible vice-presidential contenders onstage at his rallies and at other events.His goals are clear: Show off the sheer breadth of his institutional support in the Republican Party. Inject a sense of inevitability into the race. And, of course, see which underling will butter him up the most.On Friday alone, Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio and Representative Elise Stefanik of New York rallied supporters for him. Ms. Stefanik held a second event on Saturday.The presence of all three, each of whom maintains a close relationship with Mr. Trump, generated headlines and fired up his base.But joining Mr. Trump’s ticket can come with risks. Former Vice President Mike Pence twice ran with Mr. Trump, but his refusal to violate the Constitution to help overthrow the 2020 election led to Trump supporters storming the Capitol and threatening to hang him. Mr. Pence and his family were forced into hiding inside the Capitol to avoid the mob.Mr. Scott’s stock seemed to rise with Mr. Trump after his endorsement of the former president on Friday, a move that showed the genial senator’s fealty and his surprising capacity for ruthlessness. In choosing Mr. Trump, Mr. Scott dealt a brutal rejection to Ms. Haley, his home-state compatriot and the woman who appointed him to the Senate.Mr. Scott’s remarks at the Trump rally on Friday in Concord projected a stirring energy often lacking in own presidential bid, which he ended in November.“We need Donald Trump,” Mr. Scott shouted to the audience.Doug Mills/The New York TimesThe crowd matched his excitement with shouts of “V.P.,” and Mr. Scott ended his fiery call-and-response speech by shouting with the audience, “We need Donald Trump.”Mr. Trump noted Mr. Scott’s transformation.“He was great, don’t you think?” Mr. Trump said after the rally to a Republican consultant, who insisted on anonymity to describe the private conversation.Mr. Trump’s enthusiasm was a marked change from a year ago, when, after a lackluster debate performance by Mr. Scott, the former president raised eyebrows among some associates with offhand comments that the South Carolinian had not received much coverage.Ms. Stefanik has also seemed like an increasingly decent bet to be Mr. Trump’s running mate, winning acclaim throughout the conservative world for her role in taking down two presidents of elite universities after a contentious hearing on antisemitism and campus protests.At his Friday rally, Mr. Trump praised Ms. Stefanik, a one-time backbencher who rocketed to the party’s No. 4 House leadership job.“Elise became very famous,” he said of her prodding of the college presidents, describing her questioning as surgical. “Wasn’t it beautiful?”One potential hitch with a Stefanik pick: Mr. Trump mispronounced her last name as “STEH-fuh-nick” instead of “steh-FAH-nick.”On Saturday, Trump supporters also greeted Ms. Stefanik with “V.P.” chants as she visited with volunteers at the former president’s campaign office in Manchester.“I’d be honored — I’ve said that for a year — to serve in a future Trump administration in any capacity,” she told reporters.Rep. Elise Stefanik at a Trump rally in Concord, N.H.Doug Mills/The New York TimesAt the Saddle Up Saloon in Kingston, N.H., Mr. Vance mingled with dozens of Trump supporters as reporters asked about his prospects to join the presidential ticket.Mr. Vance, the best-selling author of “Hillbilly Elegy,” suggested he would be better utilized in the Senate during a second Trump term than as vice president. Still, Mr. Vance said, he would have to think about such an offer.“I want to help him however I can,” he said.Mr. Trump agonized over his pick for vice president in 2016, toggling potential picks until almost the moment of the announcement.But during this campaign, Mr. Trump teased his vice-presidential pick before the first nominating contest last week in Iowa, where he said on Fox News that he had decided on a running mate but declined to offer a name. Still, a formal announcement could remain far off: Several people close to Mr. Trump have privately suggested that his comment was more showmanship than serious.In Iowa, Mr. Trump also recruited a series of potential running mates to campaign for him: Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia; Kari Lake, a Republican Senate candidate in Arizona; and Gov. Kristi Noem of South Dakota.But the V.P. chants have grown much louder in New Hampshire.At an event in Atkinson on Tuesday, Vivek Ramaswamy made an impassioned defense of Mr. Trump — less than a day after ending his own White House bid, most of which he spent glorifying the former president.When the crowd chanted “V.P! V.P!” for Mr. Ramaswamy, an Ohio entrepreneur, Mr. Trump returned the approval.Mr. Ramaswamy, the former president said, is “going to be working with us for a long time.”Ms. Haley, who served in Mr. Trump’s administration as ambassador to the United Nations, has long been mentioned as a potential running mate.But during Friday’s speech in Concord, Mr. Trump seemed to rule out that possibility.“She is not presidential timber,” he said. “Now, when I say that, that probably means that she’s not going to be chosen as the vice president.”Neil Vigdor More

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    Disdaining Haley, Trump Says She ‘Probably’ Won’t Be His Running Mate

    Former President Donald J. Trump intensified his attacks against Nikki Haley on Friday, saying that she was not of presidential caliber and that, as a result, he was unlikely to choose her as his running mate.“She is not presidential timber,” Mr. Trump said at a campaign event in Concord, N.H. “Now, when I say that, that probably means that she’s not going to be chosen as the vice president.”Mr. Trump, known for off-the-cuff pronouncements that veer from his prepared remarks, continued by making it clear that his dismissal of Ms. Haley was not a fluke: “When you say certain things, it sort of takes them out of play, right?”Mr. Trump is well known for excoriating someone in one breath, and then reversing himself when it becomes politically or otherwise advantageous to do so. But his stance toward Ms. Haley, whom he appointed as his ambassador to the United Nations, has hardened as the New Hampshire primary approaches.Though Mr. Trump holds a wide lead over Ms. Haley in polls, she has narrowed the gap here in recent months. The Trump campaign is eyeing a decisive win in New Hampshire that could severely curtail her chances at winning the Republican nomination.On Friday, he again accused her of being supported primarily by Democrats, saying that “leftists” were spending millions on advertisements so they could “flood your airwaves with Nikki propaganda.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

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    Tim Scott Plans to Endorse Donald Trump

    Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina will endorse Donald J. Trump on Friday evening at a rally in New Hampshire, according to two people briefed on the matter.Mr. Scott was traveling to Florida on Friday so that he could fly with Mr. Trump to New Hampshire for the rally, the two people said. His endorsement of Mr. Trump is likely to spur additional discussion of Mr. Scott as a potential running mate for the former president. He is the highest-ranking elected Black Republican in the nation. Mr. Scott arrived at his decision only recently. After ending his own campaign for president on Nov. 12, he had said he would not endorse “anytime soon.” But he came to the conclusion that Mr. Trump was the best candidate to defeat President Biden, according to one person familiar with his thinking.A spokesman for Mr. Scott declined to comment. A spokesman for the former president did not immediately respond to a request for comment.Ms. Haley, in a statement, said: “Interesting that Trump’s lining up with all the Washington insiders when he claimed he wanted to drain the swamp. But the fellas are gonna do what the fellas are gonna do.”During the race, Mr. Trump avoided criticizing Mr. Scott, a sign that he held warmer feelings for the senator, whom he worked alongside while president. In 2020, Mr. Trump had given Mr. Scott one of the most coveted speaking roles in politics, making him a keynote speaker at the Republican National Convention. Mr. Scott also was fairly gentle about Mr. Trump, mildly criticizing him for saying he wanted to forge a compromise with Democrats on abortion but generally steering clear of sharp attacks. Mr. Trump has pursued Mr. Scott’s endorsement since the senator exited the race last year. His endorsement not only lifts Mr. Trump in New Hampshire, which hosts its primary on Tuesday, but also in South Carolina, the home state of one of Mr. Trump’s top remaining Republican rivals, Nikki Haley. The Trump team is hoping to force from the race both Ms. Haley and Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida with a decisive win in South Carolina’s primary on Feb. 24, avoiding an expensive fight for delegates that would otherwise extend through March after Super Tuesday. Mr. Trump has made collecting prominent endorsements a key part of his attempts to project inevitability now that the nomination fight has begun, and for months he has worked behind the scenes to lobby for formal backing. Mr. Scott’s support comes on the heels of two endorsements from Mr. Trump’s former rivals from 2016: Senator Ted Cruz of Texas backed Mr. Trump after he won the Iowa caucuses on Monday and Senator Marco Rubio of Florida said he supported Mr. Trump the day before Iowa voted.The decision to back Mr. Trump could especially sting for Ms. Haley. As governor of South Carolina, she had appointed Mr. Scott to the Senate, announcing him as her choice more than a decade ago, in 2012.Mr. Scott has fielded calls from all three of the remaining candidates in the race — Mr. Trump, Ms. Haley and Mr. DeSantis. Ms. Haley had called him this week and some mutual friends in South Carolina had also reached out to lobby on her behalf for his endorsement. Mr. Trump and South Carolina’s other senator, Lindsey Graham, a close ally of Mr. Trump, had lobbied him steadily. Mr. DeSantis also called Mr. Scott last year after Mr. Scott exited the race, according to the two people briefed on Mr. Scott’s endorsement decision.The lobbying was a sign of how coveted Mr. Scott’s backing would be. While Mr. Scott struggled to gain traction in the primary, he remains overwhelmingly popular with Republican voters.Surveys last fall from Public Opinion Strategies, a Republican firm that has worked with the DeSantis operation, showed Mr. Scott with a 78 percent favorability rating in South Carolina and a 67 percent favorability rating in New Hampshire. More

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    The Squandered Potential of Tim Scott

    Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina ended his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination this week having failed to make good on his early promise as a candidate who could broaden the party coalition in a general election. And while he could still have a long career ahead of him in Republican politics, his failure to connect with the primary electorate ought to trouble those pining for a more diverse and capacious G.O.P.Mr. Scott spent much of his campaign making hard-right appeals in a vain effort to wrest a portion of his party’s base from Donald Trump. For social conservatives, he offered a federal abortion ban at 15 weeks. For immigration and crime hard-liners, he supported ending birthright citizenship and committing troops to a war in Mexico against the drug cartels. In a recent appearance in Iowa, he even broadly alleged that Chinese college students studying in America could be “reporting back to the Chinese Communist Party.” And last month, he accused President Biden of having “blood on his hands” after Hamas attacked Israel, baselessly suggesting that by releasing Iranian oil revenue ⁠as part of a prisoner swap — for humanitarian uses, under American supervision — the president might have financed the massacre.None of this separated Mr. Scott, either in substance or in the polls, from the rest of the pack. But Mr. Scott did try make his candidacy distinctive in one important way: selling Republican voters, at every opportunity, a message of racial uplift that minimizes the extent to which racism still shapes American life.On paper, Mr. Scott was well positioned to deliver it.He could have been the first Black Republican nominee. Already, he is not only the South’s first Black senator since Reconstruction, but the first the region has ever popularly elected (he won a special election in 2014 after being appointed to his seat a year earlier by a rival 2024 candidate, Nikki Haley). And over the years, he has spoken often about his experiences as a Black man. He has described being pulled over on the road some 18 times in 20 years and being stopped by the Capitol Police on the way to work even as he wore a senator’s pin.Mr. Scott makes frequent reference, too, to voices on the left who have exposed their own racism by subjecting him to stereotypes and slurs and dismissing his agency. “When I fought back against their liberal agenda,” he said in the video announcing his presidential exploratory committee, “they called me a prop, a token, because I disrupt their narrative.”But Mr. Scott always sweetened these disclosures with a spoonful of sugar. “Is there racism in America?” he asked at a July campaign event. “Of course there is. Are the systems of our country racist? I don’t think so.” While racism lingers on, in other words, the strides we’ve made since slavery and the civil rights movement have been so great that we should deride those who argue it defines American identity or still structures our present.His own life story ⁠is, as far as he’s concerned, strong evidence in support of this idea. “Growing up in a single-parent household, I wondered if the American dream would work for a kid in the inner city,” he said at September’s Republican debate. “I’ve got good news for every single child, whether you’re in the inner cities of Chicago or the rural parts of Iowa. America and the dream — it is alive, it is well and it is healthy.”While most Republicans surely agreed that Mr. Scott’s background fatally undermined the critiques their opponents have been making of America and its history — “I am living proof that our founders were geniuses who should be celebrated, not canceled,” he told a crowd in Iowa early this year — they weren’t enthralled by his campaign, perhaps because Mr. Scott’s message of racial uplift doesn’t have more than a cerebral appeal to an overwhelmingly white Republican primary electorate. Thus far, the party’s voters have preferred to get their defenses of American history straight and neat from Mr. Trump and Ron DeSantis, without the detours into personal narrative that Mr. Scott offered up.Mr. Scott insists often that he doesn’t want people to think about his race at all. “People are fixated on my color,” he said to Politico in a 2018 profile. “I’m just not.” There’s a similar line in “America: A Redemption Story,” Mr. Scott’s 2022 entry in a now-venerable genre, the pre-campaign memoir. “Today we live in a world that thrives on creating narratives of division,” it reads. “But my childhood and my life have not been defined by my blackness.”The book itself suggested otherwise — that Mr. Scott was not only as fixated on his own color as the critics he scorned but also as determined to make use of it. The words “Black” or “African American” appear 75 times, or once every three-and-a-half pages — often within its capsule biographies of Black figures like Jackie Robinson and Madam C.J. Walker, whom Mr. Scott evidently sees as his historic peers. In truth and by design, the book is as much a kind of Black History Month reader as it is about Mr. Scott’s own life. And even that material begins with his grandfather teaching his mother how to pick cotton.Ben Carson’s more successful run for the Republican nomination in 2016 seemed to have some of what Mr. Scott’s campaign lacked — though almost forgotten today, Mr. Carson, unlike Mr. Scott, actually found his way to the top tier of contenders for a time. To be sure, the substance of Mr. Carson’s commentary on race did resemble Mr. Scott’s. In a representative interview with the conservative talk radio host Dennis Prager, he both denied the persistence of deep racial inequality in American society — “Race doesn’t really keep you down in this country if you get a good education” — and argued that the racism worth worrying about was coming from his progressive critics. “It’s mostly with the progressive movement who will look at someone like me, and because of the color of my pigment, they decide that there’s a certain way that I’m supposed to think,” he said. “And if I don’t think that way, I’m an Uncle Tom and they heap all kinds of hatred on you. That, to me, is racism.”But unlike Mr. Scott, Mr. Carson rarely discussed race of his own volition, on or off the stump. “Asked about it,” Molly Ball observed in The Atlantic, “he tends to deflect, rejecting racial distinctions as divisive.” And to the extent that Mr. Carson’s campaign did attempt to harness race to its advantage, as it did in a pair of conservative talk radio ads it aired before South Carolina’s primary that year, it did so the old-fashioned way: appealing to the racial anxieties and outright racism of white right-of-center voters. One of the South Carolina ads “inveighed against affirmative action as ‘racial entitlement’ while the other depicted Black crime as a ‘crisis,’” Ms. Ball wrote. “Taken together, the ads were a striking attempt to provoke white voters’ racial attitudes by a candidate who has otherwise avoided the subject.”Mr. Carson’s own bootstraps story, meanwhile, mirrors Mr. Scott’s in certain respects — both men came to success from poverty and broken homes — but Mr. Carson’s personal narrative was also a tale of Christian redemption. As he tells it, he worked past the anger and violence of his youth through studying the Bible, which made him famous among the conservative evangelicals who would take an interest in his campaign long before he entered politics.Mr. Scott has nothing like that story in his own narrative — a comparatively simple rags-to-Republican tale about the virtues of hard work and rejecting racial victimhood that, while appealing in the abstract to essentially everyone on the right, wasn’t compelling enough to excite any important constituency in particular. So where Mr. Carson ran largely as a conventional evangelical Republican candidate — racial dog whistles and all — Mr. Scott actively tried and failed to make a race-based message connect.It is important to note that Mr. Scott — a descendant of slaves who is, by all accounts, still warmly received in the North Charleston community where he grew up — is no less fully and authentically Black for being a conservative or having used his identity to sell conservatism. Criticisms of Mr. Scott on this front are inane. The Black community is ideologically diverse — and, in fact, substantively more conservative than the Democratic margins among Black voters might suggest.The pool of Black voters who are skeptical or hostile to the progressive movements that Mr. Scott reviles or who believe, as he does, that unshackling capitalism further might liberate struggling Black communities, may be even larger — and it includes Democrats and independents. This is what might have made Mr. Scott such a formidable general election contender: Given the thin electoral margins in swing states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, even mild slippage rightward among Black voters could be potentially catastrophic for Democrats.But luckily for them, the G.O.P. is still Donald Trump’s party, and nothing Mr. Scott could have said or done would have changed that.Mr. Scott, in fact, has taken pains to frame himself as an occasionally critical but generally loyal friend of the former president, going as far as absolving him of responsibility for the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. In his campaign memoir, Mr. Scott describes being invited to the White House for a conciliatory chat after publicly condemning Mr. Trump for what he said after the violence in Charlottesville. When Mr. Trump asked him what he could to do make amends to those he’d offended, Mr. Scott sensed an opportunity to plug Opportunity Zones — tax incentives for private investment in specific high poverty areas, a policy idea he’d nurtured for some time.“The next day, I was stunned to read about President Trump answering a question as he boarded Air Force One,” he writes. “When asked about how our meeting went, he started talking about the importance of rebuilding lower-income neighborhoods through Opportunity Zones.”Opportunity Zones eventually found their way into the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and are talked up today, by Mr. Scott, as an example of how rejecting the politics of racial outrage — and, implicitly, countenancing the racism of Republican politicians like Mr. Trump — might pave the way toward making material, market-driven gains for racial minorities. The fact that nearly half of the tax breaks offered under the program thus far had gone to just 1 percent of the designated zones by the end of 2020 — and to projects like a $600 million Ritz-Carlton development in Portland, Ore. — is of no consequence to him.This is Mr. Scott’s dream and, by his lights, America’s: the notion that we might continue making racial progress (even though there’s not much left to make) with the business-friendly policy tools already available to us, and without fundamentally reworking our politics or our economy. It is a thoroughly conservative vision that was offered by a capable conservative spokesman — one who won the respect of Republican voters but not nearly enough of their support.Osita Nwanevu is a contributing editor at The New Republic and a columnist at The Guardian.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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    How Tim Scott’s Campaign Ended: Internal Mistrust, Flat Debates and More

    Externally, Mr. Scott’s brand of relentless optimism never found traction. Internally, his campaign was plagued by missteps, and a huge sum expected from a key donor never materialized.It was late October and Tim Scott’s campaign manager, Jennifer DeCasper, was trying to rally the troops on an all-staff call, announcing that they would soon relocate to Iowa in a last-ditch move to salvage his floundering presidential bid. She broke the news from the back seat of an Uber, according to four people familiar with the call.As the car bumped through the streets of Chicago after a Scott speech had run long, Ms. DeCasper insisted, “We are not failing.”But by then, even many of those around Mr. Scott believed his candidacy had already run its course.His debate performances were flat. His television ads weren’t working. His operation was burning through far more cash than it was raising. And his super PAC had canceled its own television ads days before Ms. DeCasper’s staff call.There was one other detail that had been closely guarded: The man long expected to be the super PAC’s biggest donor, the billionaire Larry Ellison, wound up not giving anything to the group after Mr. Scott entered the race, according to four people aware of the group’s finances. From 2020 to 2022, Mr. Ellison donated $35 million to Scott-aligned groups, and a huge check had seemed a foregone conclusion when Mr. Ellison showed up at the Scott kickoff and got a shout-out from the stage.Before his run, Mr. Scott telegraphed to allies that he had expected a significant sum to flow into his super PAC, according to three of the people familiar with the discussions and planning, and the super PAC wrote a budget for roughly half the amount that Mr. Scott had predicted. But donations fell well short of even that smaller sum.By early November, Mr. Scott had sunk so low in polls that he barely qualified for the third presidential debate in Miami. Then, on a night last week when he knew he needed a performance that would reinvigorate his flagging candidacy, the biggest splash he made in Miami was the public debut of his girlfriend.Days later, he quit the race on Fox News in an announcement that surprised much of his staff.For a senator from South Carolina who had entered the race with high hopes as the Republican Party’s highest-ranking Black elected official, Mr. Scott, 58, was unable to convert his compelling life story — and more campaign cash at the outset than any other candidate — into concrete support.Externally, Mr. Scott’s brand of relentless optimism never found traction in a contest that has been dominated by the dark and fear-laden campaign of former President Donald J. Trump.“Sometimes the message and the tone don’t align with the moment,” said Rob Godfrey, a veteran South Carolina Republican political strategist who has followed Mr. Scott’s career for years. “It may be that the potential wasn’t realized in this campaign because there is such anger and polarization in the electorate.”Internally, the campaign was plagued by miscommunications, missed opportunities and mistrust. Allies questioned the candidate’s devotion to the race and his decision to lean on a senior team, led by Ms. DeCasper, with so little presidential experience. Mr. Scott himself raised concerns to one person close to him about how the nearly $22 million he brought into the race from his Senate re-election was being spent by others, which further narrowed his circle of trust.“It’s hard for any presidential candidate to surround themselves with people they don’t know and ask them to be loyal to the cause,” Ms. DeCasper, who has worked with Mr. Scott for more than a decade, said in an interview. “I was his longstanding protector and nobody could have done that besides me.”Ms. DeCasper said those who doubted Mr. Scott’s commitment to the cause were misinterpreting his core values.“He made a promise to his mother that he would take her to church every Sunday,” Ms. DeCasper said. It was a promise, she added, Mr. Scott rarely broke. “People without context would see it as a lack of commitment to a presidential campaign,” she said. “But in reality he was committing to being a good senator as well as a good Christian as well as a good son.”In some ways, the debates were the undoing of Mr. Scott. He had entered the first one, in August, primed for a moment as Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida had faded and he had ticked up in the polls in Iowa. But Mr. Scott was largely absent that evening and never fully recovered. Donors and voters instead gave a fresh look to his fellow South Carolinian, former Gov. Nikki Haley, who had first appointed Mr. Scott to the Senate a decade ago and who supplanted him as Mr. DeSantis’s chief rival for a Trump alternative.Mr. Scott struggled to stand out against Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy during the primary debates.Todd Heisler/The New York TimesThe fourth debate in December, with its higher polling requirement, had threatened to unceremoniously end the Scott campaign and so, after weekend events in Iowa were canceled because of what his campaign said was a case of the flu, Mr. Scott bowed on Sunday night to the reality that the race was over.His announcement on Fox News on Sunday blindsided most of Mr. Scott’s own aides and supporters, with among the few to know being Ms. DeCasper and Nathan Brand, his communications director.The shock factor was the latest and final sign of a campaign that some criticized as insular at the top. Fund-raising pleas had gone out less than an hour before he had announced his departure. And the suspension of his campaign was not posted on his own account on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, for nearly three hours.Privately, allies and advisers to Mr. Scott had questioned his dedication to the contest, pointing to a campaign schedule that was less robust than his leading non-Trump rivals. According to a calendar tracked by The Des Moines Register, Vivek Ramaswamy held more than twice as many events as he did in Iowa this year, while Mr. DeSantis had 50 percent more events and even Ms. Haley, who has made Iowa far less central to her candidacy, nearly matched Mr. Scott’s total. (Unlike Ms. Haley and Mr. Ramaswamy, Mr. Scott has a full-time job as a senator.)Questions about Mr. Scott’s future had accelerated after his super PAC pulled its advertising plug, after running about $12 million of the $40 million in ads it had announced reserving over the summer. “We aren’t going to waste our money when the electorate isn’t focused or ready for a Trump alternative,” Rob Collins, the super PAC’s co-chairman, wrote in a blunt memo to donors.Katon Dawson, a former South Carolina Republican Party chairman who is supporting Ms. Haley, called the memo unhelpful. “That was the first thing that sucked the oxygen out,” Mr. Dawson said.But Mr. Scott himself soon echoed that message on CNBC, a relatively rare interview beyond the friendly confines of Fox News.“One of the things that we’ve realized throughout the last several days is breaking through in any of the media with any campaign material is just useless,” Mr. Scott said. “Why waste those resources when you can save them for the end of the campaign when you will have the opportunity to break through.”That opportunity never came.Despite a Black Republican surging to the top of the polls in each of the last two open Republican primaries (Ben Carson in 2016, and Herman Cain in 2012), Mr. Scott never had a breakout moment in 2023, even as polls show he remained well liked by voters.In the end, the party instead seemed satisfied to have Mr. Scott stay in the Senate. The lack of money from Mr. Ellison was symptomatic of a broader trend of donor reluctance.In the first half of 2021, when Mr. Scott delivered the Republican rebuttal to President Biden’s first address to a joint session of Congress, Mr. Scott had nearly 247,000 online donations. This year, when running for president, he had far fewer: under 109,000 online contributions, according to federal records data for WinRed, the company that processes nearly all online Republican campaign contributions.Though Mr. Scott has repeatedly downplayed any interest in the vice presidency, his lack of frontal criticisms of Mr. Trump — and Mr. Trump’s lack of attacks on him — has fueled repeated questions about them as potential running mates.But Mr. Scott, who has previously indicated that he will not seek another U.S. Senate term in 2028, did not foreclose a different political future on Sunday, saying he was listening to the voters in his interview with Trey Gowdy.“They’re telling me, ‘Not now, Tim,’” he said. “I don’t think they’re saying, Trey, ‘No,’ but I do think they’re saying, ‘Not now.’” More

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    In Politics, There Are Worse Things Than Wishful Thinking

    Bret Stephens: Gail, my attention these past few weeks has been devoted almost entirely to outrages and tragedies in the Middle East. But I couldn’t help smiling for a second when Nikki Haley called Vivek Ramaswamy “scum” at last week’s G.O.P. debate, after he raised the subject of her daughter’s use of TikTok.Aside from the deep truth of the remark — I wouldn’t have faulted her if she had thwacked him — it also made me think there’s life in this primary yet. Your thoughts on the G.O.P. race?Gail Collins: So glad to be back conversing every week, Bret. And you must be pleased that Haley, your Republican fave, was generally judged the winner of that debate.Bret: As she was of the first two debates.Gail: Not hard to make Ramaswamy look bad, but she certainly did a great job of it.Bret: Ramaswamy is like the human equivalent of HAL 9000 with an addiction to Red Bull.Gail: But what’s this going to do for her? Can you really imagine a path to the presidential nomination here?Bret: There was a great story last week in The Times by Natasha Frost, about an Australian man who freed himself from the jaws of a saltwater crocodile by biting its eyelid. Which is only believable because, well, it’s Australia. That’s about the situation in which the G.O.P. contenders find themselves with respect to Donald Trump.I know it’s a long shot, but at some point there will be just one person left standing against Trump, and I bet it will be Haley. She’s not just the best debater. She also comes across as the most tough-minded and well-rounded, given her experience both as a governor and a U.N. ambassador. She’s in second place in New Hampshire and in her home state of South Carolina, and her numbers have been moving up. As formidable as Trump’s own numbers look, it won’t be lost on centrist-minded G.O.P. voters that he’ll be campaigning while on bail.Now you’ll tell me that’s wishful thinking ….Gail: Hey, in our current political climate, there are worse things than wishful thinking. And we do have a likely Republican nominee who’s under indictment for virtually every nonviolent crime on the books except double parking.One thing I was wondering, looking at the debaters: Trump is going to have to find a new vice-presidential nominee. I keep thinking Tim Scott is campaigning hard for that job, although now he has suspended his campaign. You’ve got better Republican insight — see anybody on the stage you could imagine on Trump’s ticket?Bret: Good question. Trump will want someone with Mike Pence’s servility, minus the fidelity to the Constitution. Somehow I don’t think Scott fits that bill. I’m thinking of someone with more MAGA appeal, like Arizona’s Kari Lake or Ohio’s J.D. Vance.Gail: Ewww. Well then, I guess Scott’s sudden girlfriend reveal won’t do the trick.Bret: Only if the engagement were to Lauren Boebert.Gail: Last week’s election was a very, very good time for the Democrats. Big wins in Kentucky and Virginia, not to mention Ohio. I know a lot of it was attached to the very strong public support for abortion rights, but I can’t help but feel it was also a general Republican fizzle. You agree?Bret: It was a great antidote to that depressing Times/Siena poll, showing Biden’s political weakness against Trump in crucial swing states, which we talked about last week. My read on the results is this: Democrats win when they run with centrist candidates, like Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky, who ran as a pragmatist, not an ideologue. Also, Republicans remain deeply vulnerable, mainly thanks to their abortion extremism. That second fact should, well, abort Ron DeSantis’s campaign. The first fact suggests Democrats can win and win big — with a younger candidate, from a purple state, with a record of governing from the center.Speaking of which, any feelings about Joe Manchin’s decision not to run for re-election? Are you going to miss him?Gail: Well, I’m gonna miss having a Democratic senator from West Virginia. Never found any of his standing-on-my-own shutting-all-progress-down antics to be all that endearing.Bret: Loved them. Democrats won’t easily hold the Senate without him.Gail: What worries me is the possibility that Manchin’s going to run as a third-party candidate for president. As our readers know, I hate, hate, hate the idea of people who could never win a major-party nomination jumping into the general election on their own lines. It has a terrific potential to mess things up. Speaking also to you, Jill Stein, another new entrant, via the Green Party. And Bret, to your pal Joe Lieberman’s shenanigans with No Labels.Bret: To say nothing of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West. Both of whom, I think, are bigger political threats to Biden than they would be to the Republican nominee. But none of them would be anything but an afterthought if Biden weren’t such a weak candidate.On the other hand, we have Trump and his trials. Do you think any of these many cases against him are going to do any lasting political damage?Gail: Really wondering. On the one hand, good Lord — 91 felony counts and a civil suit in New York that might just wipe out any semblance of proof that he really has the money he always claims to have. Who could possibly win an election with that kind of record?Bret: Well, Trump could.I haven’t delved too deeply into the particulars of the civil suit filed by Letitia James, New York’s attorney general, but I have my doubts about the strength of a case that rests on the theory that it’s unlawful for a real-estate developer to overstate the value of his assets. The market value of any asset is only determined at the point of sale, and real estate is often a classic “Veblen good,” in which demand increases as the price goes up.Gail: None of this can possibly be a surprise to his die-hard supporters, and they’re still with him. They just see it all as persecution. But once the campaign is really underway and voters keep hearing Biden ads reminding them Trump is a crooked underachiever, do you think the swing voters could keep ignoring it?Bret: Hillary Clinton ran on precisely that in 2016. She lost because she came across as the entitled representative of a self-dealing system, and he won because he came across as a disrupter of that system. That’s exactly the scenario Democrats risk repeating now.Would you mind if we switched to a more local topic? Wondering what you think of the mounting legal jeopardy of your mayor, Eric Adams.Gail: Well, Bret, New Yorkers are not unaccustomed to seeing our mayors skating around some corruption pond. But I have to admit this one is pretty mind-boggling. We’re engulfed in a crisis over the enormous influx of migrants, and now we’re engulfed with stories about Adams’s relationships with Turkish leaders … who are, surprise surprise, into Manhattan real estate.Bret: The question that always hovered over Adams’s mayoralty was whether it would send him to greater heights or to jail.Gail: And meanwhile the F.B.I. raided the home of his chief campaign fund-raiser, Brianna Suggs. We will be hearing a lot more about this, I’m sure. But the immediate reaction was, she’s 25 and she’s his chief campaign fund-raiser?Bret: Ageism. Just terrible.Gail: My prediction: More trouble to come. Your thoughts?Bret: Sounds bad for Adams, for which I’m sorry since I still think that he was the best of the lot in the last mayoral election. But it’s also worth remembering that the F.B.I. has a very mixed record of going after prominent political figures. Remember when Matt Gaetz, the Florida congressman, was going to be charged with sex trafficking? Gaetz is an otherwise despicable person, but that case was a travesty and ultimately collapsed. Or the way the F.B.I. went after Ted Stevens, the Alaska senator, destroying his political career shortly before his death? That was another travesty, in which prosecutors hid exculpatory evidence and engaged in “reckless professional misconduct,” according to a Justice Department report. The F.B.I. was just as bad in its investigations of both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.Which is all to say: Innocent until proven guilty.Gail: Yipes, I’m not going to argue that one. Did you note that one of the City Council winners here in New York is Yusef Salaam, one of the Central Park Five, who spent nearly seven years in jail for a sexual assault that he didn’t commit?Bret: I hadn’t. I need to start paying attention to New York City politics. They’re getting interesting again.Gail: Now looking forward, what’s your bet on Congress achieving its very basic-minimal job of passing a budget before we’re … budget-less? Think the dreaded new House speaker, Mike Johnson, can make the grade?Bret: Burn-it-all-down conservatism is much easier to practice from the bleachers than from the field. Johnson will have to come up with a budget, he’ll have to learn how to compromise, and he’ll have to learn, like Kevin McCarthy before him, that the price of being a political grown-up is bending to realities that don’t bend toward you.Most of us learn that lesson pretty early in life. Speaker Johnson is only 51, so he still has time.Gail: Ah, if only we didn’t have to be stuck in his classes.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More